EPTTL Mafia L - Page 2
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I'm going to take a sleep and write up my main suspects thusfar when I have a slow period at work. | ||
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1) The filter list on the OP post seems to have vanished. If you guys could get it back up, that would be tits. 2) Short end of the stick is that Kurumi crumbed shooting Kenpachi yesterday and he's still alive. I wanted to wait to see if he'd claim being hit, but he hasn't. Veterans/Medic protected individuals on the town side would have claimed this asap. Kenpachi wasn't jailed, I was roleblocked. Given all of that, the only way I can explain him being alive after Kurumi's flip is that Kurumi's pretty overt crumb was a lie (odd, given that kurumi WAS a vig), or that Kenpachi is the mafia jack, or was saved by the mafia jack. So uh, Kenpachi's my lynch vote for the day. | ||
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So, why did you ask for the vig shot again? Pretty simple; CC was putting out very, very good material and pushing someone into posting a lot more than they might otherwise have. The person he was pushing tried to kill him; This is a SUUUUUPER bad sign against VE, but the dipshit manner in which he made the claim somewhat neutralizes how bad the ultra-omgus attack was. We also have a claim re: a jack role going into night. If VE is actually the jack and not mafia, he's probably the best candidate for mayor; he can verify his role with a called shot and he has access to medic defense and BG information; Even if they die, he can vet up for a night; this makes it very difficult for mafia to knock out his premium vote power, which is very powerful, moreso as the game carries on. If VE is mafia, however, we would be up shits creek with him as a mayor. Vigs wouldnt be able to take him out safely and hed have a huge amount of cred off of an incredibly well designed gambit. So we have to figure out if VE is mafia or not. If VE is rolling into the night and he is on the mafia team, his perspective vis a vis how he would use his hit is substantially different than if hes a jack. If he said he was shooting CC, it would be a sign that he was more concerned with killing CC than getting a benefit from using his hit. CC shot at night would have provided us far less information going into the mayoral election. Had VE been correct with his shot, hed have been the best candidate by far. Even if he was wrong, we would have had the issue to talk about as conversation in the thread had been slowing down. Now, had VE said he was going to shoot someone else in particular, Id have assumed that he was mafia. His vig hit compared to the total mafia night kp is a drop in the bucket, so there would be less incentive to hold his information back. He wasnt asked if hed shoot someone else. Just spilling the beans off the question would indicate that hes trying to win cred, especially given how he answered my follow-up question regarding how he would verify his role. Had he simply stated no, hed have struck me as very town. I think his actual response, that hed lynch CC if voted-in produced equivalent information and combined a consistent view with respect to his prime suspect, as well as a very pro-town indication that he was willing to hold his hit back. Mafia gains more the earlier they kill people. Less voices to deal with, fewer voters to convince during lynches. | ||
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This was well timed. Kenpachi should be dead according to Kurumis crumb. No ones come out in the past day to explain anything. Kurumis crumb was super overt, which indicates that he was comfortable dying during the night. This particular post, however, is both a way of distancing Toad from Kenpachi (he is a troll, he will hang), while simultaneously defending him (He wont hang till everyone else of worthy suspicion dies). Even if Kenpachi is shot and flips red, Toad can push his connection with the hang comment. If he dies and flips down, Toad can claim he was the lowest priority. This is possibly the safest disengagement post possible. Given the fact that last night indicates that Kenpachi is mafia, his sheeping on Toad combined with Toads response indicats that theyre not just buddies, but scumbuddies. If you arent swayed, check out Kenpachis filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=253716&user=51151 Toads filter is much more interesting read: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=253716&user=40853 | ||
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On January 17 2012 11:08 sandroba wrote: Also L I recognize that type of play from last game. Who the fuck you think is scum? Nice blabbering and walls of nothing. I'd be up for a L lynch aswel. Pretty sure not a page before this I put up a rather concise post fingering Toad and Kenpachi. Are you just not bothering to read, or has the stress of hiding from the thread gotten to you quite yet? | ||
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Your post called 1/3rd to 1/2 of the players in the game mafia, depending on how you define 'random inactives'. Slinging shit at nearly everyone in the game isn't what I recall your town play to be like, and its generally EV- as far as positive town play goes. On January 17 2012 13:45 kingjames01 wrote: If no more information is revealed in the game, then this is what we know about the Night 1 actions. Bill Murray incarcerated Lanaia. mafia attempted to kill: Kurumi, Mr. Wiggles, GiygaS, kitaman27. They succeeded on the first 3 players. kitaman27 survived the hit. Kurumim shot Ciryandor. ... From Occam's Razor I had already assumed that Kurumi was the vigilante responsible for Ciryandor's death. I recall encountering some doubt after the Day 2 Post. Also, I don't want the idle speculation about whether the mafia used one of their KPs on Ciryandor. Finally, kitaman27: I read through your filter again but don't see an updated suspect list. Since I believe that you were targetted for death last night, I am very interested to hear who you would like to lynch Day 2. I don't get why Kurumi would crumb that he's blue and lie about his D1 shot. I didn't notice his criticism of Ciryandor, though, on my first pass through. See, in my head, lying would help him prevent a medic/jack save on his shot, but the risk of that prevention is largely created by the crumb itself, which makes the lie completely unnecessary. Additionally, had Ciryandor flipped town, he'd have just been rolling up towards a lynch with proof of lying and having shot an innocent under his belt. Double additionally, crumbing Vig with a history of criticizing a mafia member creates a substantial risk of getting RB'd and dying as blue on N1. Someone mentioned that Kurumi lies in this situation pretty often, though. Does he explain his reasoning in a prior game? I'd like to read it over, if someone has it. Also, the list of individuals that the mafia hit is very strange; I'm going to go read through Wiggles/GiygaS's filters tomorrow to see if there are any hints there. | ||
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He never mentions a serious lynch candidate on day one. That is not one of his priorities. I'm actually super glad this came up because I've been pretty busy at work and my tunneling Kenpachi based upon the last game's vig mechanics + not knowing kurumi's meta sidetracked me specifically. There's a few things I want to clear up, though: I specifically said I was likely going to lynch Mattchew. In retrospect that looks bad, but I was entirely serious. His entire focus is on the election and discussing other trivial matters. His approach to the election is not to comment on the election candidates or share his opinion on them as individuals, but to discredit them in a broad sense. He explains numerous times how there is probably a scum within the frontrunners, but never indicates which one. He apparently has no opinion on BC's mason fiasco, nor ever mentions the campaigns of prot or BM. RE: the rest. All three of BC/BM/Prot have a higher likelihood of being mafia than anyone else. Whether or not a specific one should have been picked over the other is entirely irrelevant specifically because the vote pattern up until the point at which I made my candidature post indicated that one of the frontrunners was mafia. This indicates that should votes continue to sheep in on the same candidates, that a mafia candidate would be voted in. Sheeping then occured. I didn't state that there's probably 'a scum within the frontrunners' either. My claim was more bold, if I recall correctly; It was that there was AT LEAST one. I'm glad you reminded me of this, though; I seem to have tunneled on Kenpachi without knowing that Kurumi had the potential to lie about a bunch of shit. So, lets return to my first love: Here are the vote lists with the flip data put in. Given the vote lists we've got here: Votes for Bill Murray (11) Second Macpo Toadesstern rgTheSchworz Jackal58 GiygaS Munk-E EchelonTee Nisani201 Mr. Wiggles Ciryandor kitaman27 Votes for BloodyC0bbler (11) First Meapak_Ziphh risk.nuke GGQ zeks Lanaia glurio Cyber_Cheese Foolishness supersoft wherebugsgo VisceraEyes Votes for Protactinium (10) Palmar Adam4167 Kurumi Cwave Liquid`Sheth Jayjay54 Jitsu p4NDemik bumatlarge blahz0r There's a bit more information in the vote list, but if Kita and VE are townies (due to the hit and claim respectively. not 100% confirmation, but its pretty strong evidence in my mind), there are some consequences. First, it means that mafia watched a massive surge in support for BC and BM, as well as a critical shift from Proact to BC by VE. Second it means that the final votes were tossed in at the deadline by townies, but no one seemed bothered by these votes; little commentary in the thread, etc. This indicates to me that between the three of them, there were two mafia candidates, which means that mafia was never on the hook to lose their access to the BG names or one of the office powers, as well as the immunity from checks that it provides. Given that Ciry's vote gave BM leadership of the race over BC, it seems likely that they were competing for position; Until the VE/Kita votes, Proact and BM were going to become the twin office holders. Given all of this, it seems like BM/Proact are both mafia members who had their respective busses derailed at the last minute. Jitsu's vote wouldn't have changed anything, so I don't believe there's any information to be gained there. If these turn out to be true, we gain a fucking MOUNTAIN of information through the voter lists. The alternative, which I consider to be less likely is that the combination is actually BC/X with GGQ/Risk.nuke as bus starters. I honestly think that a vote for Proact and BM would be better than a vote for Macpo today, but I wouldn't be against a combination of Macpo and one of the others. Its just more efficient if we get Proact and BM out of the way asap because we get additional information about BC, Macpo and a whole slew of others through the voting lists, which means we'd be able to get a rather tight list of mafia candidates to vig during the night. | ||
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On January 17 2012 15:28 Lanaia wrote: I'm going to vote macpo because he does feel scummy. As well as everything everyone else has said. I'm really not sure if I want to vote for a double lynch right now. The majority of my townreads have so, maybe I should consider it. What are the benefits of this? We know it is very possible something ridiculous like what happened in the 80p game has the potential to happen at some point (but it would be stupid). We have a chance to either get rid of two scum if all goes well, or a scum and a lurker if all also goes well. Isn't it prone to manipulation more than a single lynch is? The benefits? If we hit 2 mafia members, we cut their KP from 4 to 3. We shouldn't be hitting lurkers with this lynch; we have plenty of beef to go on. | ||
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On January 18 2012 03:27 sandroba wrote: Although I'm not entirely convinced that macpo is sure mafia due to sheer terribleness of his insane rambling, we still have to get rid of him at some point due to the amount of players suspicious of him. This talk about no opposition to his lynch is in no way indicative of him being innocent. Mafia is not likely to openly oppose a lynch that has so much support and so far only 28 out of 44 voters have cast their votes. Still I feel way more confident lynching GGQ or L. Double lynch needs at least 9 more votes to go through and I'd really like to get at least one red killed today. This is a terrible post, but luckily for you, if we solve the BC/BM/Proact clusterfuck, we'll have very solid chunks of information regarding your allegiance. You + BC would not have faked a massive skype log, which indicates that you're either both town, or split. This means that if BC ends up being mafia, you're cleared. If, on the other hand, he isn't, then your abstinence from voting on day 1 would indicate that you didn't care about the voting, which would be the case if BM/Proact were mafia. If somehow there's only one mafia out of BM/Proact and BC is town, then I'd need to go back into your filter and see your stance vis a vis BM and Proact individually. So, what say you? | ||
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Since that's the case, we're probably going to have idle discussion about BM/Proact, but the information they give is only really solid if we take both out at once. The only alternative to Macpo would be to lynch BM then shoot Proact during the night, but that's unnecessarily convoluted. If Proact doesn't die, there could be a medic claim or a self vet claim, etc. There's also the possibility of wasted vig hits if they're stacked. Macpo first additionally gives us information about the BM/Proact vote structure during D1. So, given that: EVERYONE VOTE FOR A DOUBLE LYNCH TODAY If you don't there's something severely wrong with you. | ||
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On January 18 2012 07:37 VisceraEyes wrote: Hiro is certainly a bit more aggressive than I'm used to seeing from him - I'd have to do some meta research when I'm not swamped. Definitely worth a look though. What are your thoughts WBG? My thoughts are that you need to go vote for a double lynch. Go do that. | ||
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On January 18 2012 07:42 ~OpZ~ wrote: He's tunnelled against Sandroba. Bases much of his argument on meta, which I don't attach much note to. He subbed in so not much to go on yet. His case against sandroba might be pretty legit rereading his post, but I've also noticed he provided no contrast to how Sandroba plays as town so he isn't showing a difference. Very one sided argument someone on the mafia team would use. But I'm going with a null read as of the moment. You haven't voted for double lynch. Go vote for double lynch. | ||
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On January 18 2012 07:51 hiro protagonist wrote: L, In case you did not know, we only get two DL this game. I am not convinced, seeing how a second lynch target is still up in the air, that a DL is the best bet for today. Hiro, in case you didn't know, the more town controlled kills we get earlier in the game, the higher percentage change we have to knock down mafia KP early and reduce their influence in discussion and voting. Not only that, but additional flips give us additional information, which sets us up more quickly for our second DL. DLs almost always should be used sooner rather than later because of the above snowballing effect granted by early kills. So once again, go vote for it. | ||
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On January 18 2012 10:43 supersoft wrote: re :-/ uh. Is L avaliable? Yo, brotato. | ||
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On January 18 2012 19:42 Bill Murray wrote: Not at all Are you trying to tell me you don't believe mafia had someone running for election? Obviously. That would be you and protact. Go look at the vote lists. | ||
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On January 19 2012 00:35 EchelonTee wrote: Foolishness and some others said that BM is "easily controllable" or easy to read; it's part of why Foolishness pushed for his election way back early D1. So I ask: examining BM, is his shenanigans equivalent to scum? I thought BM was town for a long time, but I realized I only thought this because he called a bunch of people town, who I also thought were town. Which is utter garbage because that's all he's really done... there's a lot of other weird stuff like having a STRONG TOWN tell on nisani and Adam which makes no sense considering their light post count. His list, which has a number of problems. People mentioned the Lanaia thing; I'm not sure if anyone noticed that he had previously marked Kurumi and OpZ as scum/suspicious here, yet on the list they are Town and Don't Want to Lynch respectively. Weird stuff. Considering Kurumi flipped blue later, and OpZ is on heavy scrutiny now, I could see this as BM trying to 1. show support for kurumi who he knows is going to be shot, and 2. try and give OpZ towncred. I'm down to lynch, but I'd like to see the opinions of people who previously expressed knowledge of the mind of BM. The proof is in the pudding, and in this case the pudding is in the vote records during D1. It should be pretty obvious to anyone who looks at the final stretch of voting that mafia wanted BM in office, but weren't worried by a slow vote bus for BC to close out the night, which implies that out of the three candidates, at least two were mafia. In the last 2 minutes of voting, A Proact mayor/BM Jailor result turned into a BC Mayor/Proact Jailor result and then switched to a BC mayor/BM result. The people responsible for that shift? VE and kitaman. Kitaman took a hit. No vig claimed the shot, ergo he was shot by mafia or mafia held a hit. Mafia nearly never holds hits, especially on D1 when they're strongest. VE's entire claim debacle did not seem like a fuck-up that would have happened had he been mafia; day-vig shots are generally talked over within the the team, and out of 10 members, one was likely to ask a mod for more information. So, I'm guessing they're both on town's side. So, if that's the case, then mafia watched the last few votes go in, clearly watching the event and willing to interfere with it as Ciry's vote timing shows, but then declined to involve themselves as BM, their now obvious candidate, was voted out in the last minute. If BC Mayor/Proact Jailor was the result and neither was mafia, they'd have been faced with the opportunity to trade a slightly suspicious vote for the jailor ability and the list of BGs, which lets them knock off the mayor and his huge vote surplus whenever they want. So: Matrix of possibilities: BM is town. Unlikely. BC is mafia. Kita/Meapak/GGQ heavily suspicious. Plenty of people pop up as suspicious given their pushing for his lynch. BM is mafia. Was actually bussed in by scumbuddy Kita at the last second. Other candidates look very +EV town. BM is mafia. Kita is town. Team sat back. Another candidate is mafia: Protact is mafia: BC heavily town leaning bumatlarge/blahzor are implicated. Note BM intentionally throwing shit at bum as he approaches his death. If Protact/BM are on a team, protact's call to jail someone indicates that he thinks he can hold a hit back to secure a lynch; good trade for mafia. Recent effort to get himself/foolishness jailed were an effort to push medics off those targets. His switch to me both sets up a crumb and re-rbs me. BC is mafia: sandroba is town. Protact is town. All late entries into the mayoral candidacy are town leaning. All cloaked kingmaker posts become VERY incriminating (shutting down choice before BC mayor lynched the first person to vote for Protact in office. Meapak/GGQ/Bugs and Supersoft are implicated via votes. I'm actually missing a few of the very strong implied mafia members off of this information. So we actually gain more than the above, but my lunch break's almost over and I'd prefer not to get fired. Clearing this up gives us, in nearly all cases, an incredibly strong follow-up double lynch at the least, and half of the mafia team at best. Lets not fuck up a free win. | ||
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Toodles. | ||
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On January 19 2012 03:15 jaj22 wrote: What about the theory that mafia were happy for BC to get elected regardless of alignment because he was going to lynch Palmar or Protactinium? Err, knowing about the target of the D1 lynch doesn't change the fact that they'd have a town mayor with a 2 vote surplus to vote against come endgame and ALSO not have access to the BG information if they got no one voted in. Come endgame, that's a deficit that puts them a full cycle behind. That's a massive hole to toss yourself into willingly on the basis that 'it could be worse'. Especially if you have 10 votes. The only alternative is that they subbed both BGs and are waiting for a hidden LYLO to drop BC in the night and avoid the "oh, two free mafia members" reprisal by having the game end at that point. | ||
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