TL Mafia XLII

On June 14 2011 14:12 Varpulis wrote:

why?

On June 15 2011 07:19 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:

I think I said that 5 posts ago.

On June 15 2011 14:52 ilovejonn wrote:
hokay there buddy.

First off, I'm not going to make a rebuttal out of every point you made because clearly with your PbPA you're stretching a lot of points to justify a conclusion you already had in mind beforehand with posts that don't actually add anything.

Also, don't try to do a meta-read on me, I might be playing different because I want to, I may be playing different because I've learned a few things, I might like to use "I think" or "unless of course" because I deemed it necessary to show that I am unsure (it was n0 after all). When you meta read someone, you're heavily biased to see what you wanted to see in the first place anyways.

Let's read one of those points:

What makes you say a townie wouldn't do that? Wait a minute, I read my post again and what? You take those words out of context and shape them into something that you deem scummy. I lol'd. It also seems to be a recurring theme in your analysis.

I'm done here because I don't want to waste time defending myself when I could possibly find scum, but I like the direction you're going for generating discussion since there aren't any posts since Day 1 started, so thanks.

On June 16 2011 12:50 sinani206 wrote:


That wasn't supposed to be a joke. I said to read SNMMIII because there was a bandwagon for me day one (I was veteran) and the same thing is starting to happen. But then I realized not only did youngminii play in SNMMIII, but he had just said in his above post that he did not think I was scummy that day. So I realized that was completely invalid and told the town to ignore it.

On June 16 2011 13:43 ~OpZ~ wrote:

Good. Then You're a fine lynch candidate. I'm voting you. You have sucessfully completed 9 out of 10 scummy things. The tenth is to die red.

On June 17 2011 07:29 sandroba wrote:
Okay people I ask you to turn your attention to this post:



Serious scum slip right here. First of all, your reasoning for not voting jonn, which you are suspicious of, is totally bullshit. Second, how the fuck can you be 90% sure giraffe is town from the grand total of 1 post (which is a terrible post) he has made so far? Seems to me you have more information than I do. Even then, you are 90% sure he's town, you are suspicious of jonn and you quickly jump on giraffe bandwagon??? Hello contradiction!

Vote for this mafia right now, day1 doesn't get any better than this.

On June 18 2011 05:36 Kenpachi wrote:

well fuck. im being ignored. okay.

On June 18 2011 05:21 sandroba wrote:
Alright people here comes my lists:

VIGs:
-Giraffe
-LandenC

Both extremelly inactive and based on voting thread alone Giraffe has a high chance of being mafia. His flip is also very informative regarding Hiro's aligment and revealing some info on the players that voted for him. LandenC is likely mafia if giraffe is not (he voted for him for the exact same behaviour he was presenting) so pick your target wisely.
If RoL shows up and actually confirms kenpachi being mafia he's also an obvious target. Also his huge post attacking RoL is completely out of character from the townie kenpachi I know.

Medics:
-RoL
-Aidnai
-Wiggles
-Varpulis
-BC

That's actually going to be hard to argue, but this is my gut feeling. I actually also don't see the point of arguing hard why I feel those players are town and helpful when no one of them are actually in danger.

Do not protect:
-Hiro
-GGQ
-LandenC
-Grassgiraffe
-Youngminii
-kenpachi
-Mig

mostly useless lurkers and suspicious people. GGQ is there for (hopefully) obvious reasons and youngminii is there not only because he spearheaded jonn's lynch, but also because his voting paterns are suspicious as hell. Mig is not being helpfull the way he normally is when town.

DTs:

-Hiro
-GGQ
-Young

This should be fairly obvious aswell.

On June 18 2011 08:00 Shraft wrote:

I actually believe that it's very easy for scum to blend in by commenting on this list. All of this is really basic stuff really.

On June 18 2011 08:10 Shraft wrote:


Yes, because it's very easy to just provide a few names and comment on the list. "I think yadddayaddayadda blablabla" and it looks like they have contributed. Instead of this, I urge blue roles to read posts like this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671 (I believe this was linked previously) and take use of that knowledge when they chose their night actions.

On June 18 2011 08:44 Shraft wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Vigs
Is it really worth killing off inactives with vigs? I believe vigs are too useful to waste on this. As far as I know, we got zero read on them both, so they might very well be inactive townies or blues. I don't really like the mindset that "If they are not helping the town we might as well kill them off."

DTs
I agree with the list made. Those people are all kind of fishy.

Medics
I think medics should simply protect the forum vets (basically the people on the zodiac list) since they will be very helpful with analysing everything later on. I don't know if RoL is worth protecting though, he seems like he doesn't take this game seriously at all. He just posts a few troll posts and says that he'd rather watch 24. I don't like his attitude a single bit.

On June 18 2011 10:07 hiro protagonist wrote:
EBWOP:

Vis, I meant an easy lynch target, not mafia hit

On June 19 2011 03:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I feel like I should inform all of you that I may have killed Aidnai. We were playing BW and I was trying to show him how to port forward and told him to reset his router, I didn't realize he wasn't hardwired and he walked away before I could give him the rest of the directions to fix it. So I dunno when he's going to figure this out. I sent him a PM with the directions on how to reconfigure his network and port forward, but he hasn't responded yet so I can only assume that he hasn't fixed his internet yet.

On June 21 2011 10:48 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

Analysis is something that is only ever solidly reliable day 3 on.

On June 21 2011 18:30 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Can someone who is not retarded please do an analysis.

On June 22 2011 07:33 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I looked over my notes and I saw him push aidnai a bit day 1. That was actually what confirmed him as town to me, since ILJ was obviously a bad lynch the mafia have no reason to try to add more targets into the fray.

On June 22 2011 08:09 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:

I didn't distort anything? I said I saw him push aidnai while ILJ was under fire. Tell me how I distorted any timeline? I didn't.

On June 23 2011 05:24 Mr. Wiggles wrote:


Yeah, using balance as an argument for alignment is really weak.

On June 23 2011 09:35 GGQ wrote:
So good of you to start playing as soon as your life is on the line, RoL.

For reference, *RoL and BC are both scum*

For everyone complaining that this would be imbalanced, hosts aren't always going to follow the same rule of splitting the two 'best' players onto opposite teams, or towns will just start metagaming to find scum. There were a lot of good players in this game, it was balanced even if those two are scum. Plus this fits everybody's belief that the three remaining mafia are most likely newbie lurkers. PLUS having two such skilled players would explain how the mafia managed to turn this game into a miry fog of crap so quickly.

BC has been largely useless right from the start of the game. His zodiac list fit mafia goals perfectly as it discouraged medics from protecting skilled players so he could pick off whoever he felt was a threat. He sets himself up as a town leader throughout day 1, then fails to lead the town in any direction at all. He has made no analysis and pushed no lynches except for vaguely encouraging inactive lynches which he of all people should know is a terrible idea. He happily bussed the most inactive player on his team in a situation where it cost his team nothing. He follows bad lynches and suggests using a vigi shot on 'whoever doesn't get lynched', as if he just doesn't give a shit who is scum and who isn't.

But BC is a problem for another time (or for a vigilante if there's an enterprising young gunman out there somewhere). Right now we need to finally kill fucking RoL, whom BC is working his ass off to save. I can't believe his 'GUYS BELIEVE ME IM BEING SO SINCERE RIGHT NOW' act is convincing so many people to switch their votes. His posts have nothing in them except some frankly uninspiring analysis from someone desperate to dodge the lynch again. He's been caught in how many lies now? He pushed a plan that he admits was bad on night one for the sole purpose of keeping himself alive (wtf, seriously?). He contributed little to nothing all game, he's been caught straight up in a trap by a virtually 100% cleared townie, and now he's claimed vigilante. Good one, RoL! And what happens when your target is still alive tomorrow and you claim roleblocked? What is the town supposed to do then?

It's not that hard, guys. Lynch RoL, shoot BC. TY.

On June 21 2011 11:34 youngminii wrote:

mm i'm betting my money on another explanation
rol and node were going head to head quite a bit
i know they could be doing the shift but the simpler explanation is usually the right one, and for now we should take that into consideration

On June 23 2011 11:11 Mataza wrote:
I AM CALLING THE SHOTS NOW GODDAMMIT.

BC SCUM.
ROL SCUM.

If you are a Vig or a hatter, take a coin, flip it:
If it lands tails kill Rebirthoflegend,
If it lands heads kill Bloodyc0bbler.

Medics you roll a die.
If it lands 5 or 6, you choose for yourself.
If it lands 1,2 3,4 you protect me.

I am the blueest bro in town and I just lost my last mason, Youngminii. I knew he was green because scum tunneled him.
They wouldn´t bus now, because it would drop their kp to 2. Assuming Youngminii was scum too along with RoL is also backwards ass logic.

On June 24 2011 03:33 Shraft wrote:


I still find it very unlikely that mafia went through with an intricate plan like this for the sole purpose of getting RoL killed. The only way that he'd survive the night if mafia stacked 2 KP on him is if he is either a vet with one medic protecting him, or a regular townie with two medics protecting him (assuming this setup contains 3 medics) and I don't think there's a high probability of either of these being true. I mean, after D2's townie lynch that RoL pushed plus his bad attitude during D1, I don't see why there would be medics protecting him over the other vets/more contributing people.

I actually think that the chance of getting RoL killed by carrying out this plan is drastically lower than the chances of killing him by stacking 2 KP on him.
Also, I think GGQ touched on a quite good point: why would Mataza not fabricate Sandroba's blueslip to RoL if he wanted him killed so badly? No one except RoL and Mataza could know for sure what Sandroba said to him (RoL). If RoL called his bluff then Mataza could simply say that he was lying because he was being accused.

To be frank, I also think that you're being a bit too paranoid.

On June 24 2011 05:28 Mataza wrote:
Mr. Wiggles, to actually argue against coincidence:

We know Sandroba was townsided.

There are 2 possibilities:

• I am town and have no reason to lie(GGQ noted I could fake the damning piece of evidence against RoL, but I didn´t)
  
  
• I am scum. This would open a lot of questions, like "Why even attack RoL, he was useless?", "Why stop sniping blues and kill only Sandroba?", so I think we can agree that it is rather unlikely.

Assuming I am town and did not lie about my plan against RoL.
There 2 possibilities for how the outcome of the night happened:

• My plan(I wrote this so often you should know it by now). If the bluetell worked and RoL is scum it has around a 99.9% of happening.
  
  
• It just happened. Now this would mean that a 0,7% likely event happened. You can increase this chance to 8-9% if you can give any reason for shooting one of us.

Now, assuming Sandroba didn´t lie to me, I am not lying(because townies generally don´t have a reason to lie) and that RoL is innocent, then there must be some reason visible in the thread.
If scum actually hit me and Sandroba for shits and giggles, then they probably didn´t even talk yesterday because there was no reason to talk.