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On June 07 2011 14:18 Treadmill wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 13:49 iGrok wrote:
Jackal's push to lynch rookie came out of fucking nowhere, and gathered way too much steam. I thought about reasons why he would do that, and one possible reason is that he was drawing attention from freeloader. I'm not certain of course, but it would be a good play, particularly if Jackal is the Godfather and was worried about losing KP due to inactivity & the lynch.
Oh, and I'm sure there are arrows missing, those are just the ones I could remember off the top of my head. I'm not convinced that Jackal is scum. He advocated for Rookie's lynch, yes, but all day one everyone was advocated to lynch a different person. What I suspect is that the mafia saw it and jumped on it as an opportunity, about an hour later: Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote:Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later On June 07 2011 06:28 Kurumi wrote:
##unvote
##vote: Rookie44 On June 07 2011 06:29 Senj wrote:
##vote: Rookie44 On June 07 2011 06:31 amazingxkcd wrote:
##VOTE: Rookie44 Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination. when [b]Senj, amazingxkcd, and Kurumi all vote for rookie at the same time. It's the main reason I think all three are scum. Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 14:00 iGrok wrote:
One thing I notice now is that Treadmill has the most arrows. Treadmill, you are an interesting person...
Everything he's done has been in the right. Everything. When it was unpopular, he stood by his ideas. He's defended those he felt were wrongly accused, and and accused those he felt were guilty.
IMO, Treadmill is Town. Aww, <3.
You haven't addressed what I said about Kurumi attack lafali almost immediately in the day. Why would he do that if they are both mafia?
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GGQ's big post of epicness in case he dies tonight (which I've just realised I dont have enough time to make as long as I want  Trust me that it's smart and good:
No one undertook the exercise I set of looking at who defended and attacked lafali and why. I'm very disappointed, guys. You all get 0/2 on your homework for today. The veteran players are all going to be dead before this game is nearly over, and you guys need to practice working on how to actually find scum, not just accuse people based on neutral tells. Keep your heads up, don't get discouraged. Look at contradictions in talk and behavior. Look at people who are skating by with posts that just repeat previous content. These are the scummy players.
The point was to lead you to Kurumi and iGrok above everyone else. Kurumi attacks lafali for his bandwagon vote bringing nothing new to the table on freeloader. There was absolutely no reason for him to throw scum on lafali so early in the game if he's mafia. Plus his aggressiveness and balls-out attitude are more inline with a green than anything else. Kurumi is most likely town.
iGrok defends lafali as probably newb town. He's the only one who defends lafali straight out, but Vain, aprudds, monsterDrakar, and Senj also soft-defend him. I'm not saying they are all scum, but it's a great place to look for scum (dts take note! vigis save your shots). At this point in time I think iGrok is almost certainly the godfather of the mafia team (it could be jackal as well but his behavior doesn't fit the role as well, and seems more in line with the town play I've seen from him). iGrok defends lafali after Kurumi calls him out and votes for him, while before this accusation he posted that everyone who had voted so far ( which included lafali) should be under suspicion. Contradiction. iGrok has also been working to get into a town-leadership and thread-presence position all game, something the godfather always tries to do. iGrok also got way too defensive after being attacked and accused.
Other suspicious people to me: Vain, partly for defending lafali, partly for advocating the lynch on freeloader for 'information' blehhhhh I already posted about that, and partly because iGrok listed him as a skilled vet with him, me and jackal when I think he's quite new and I havent seen anything particularly good from him. iGrok probably wanted another mafia on that list, though.
Of course jimbooo whom I voted Day 1, for reasons already stated by multiple players.
Others are monsterDrakar and Senj. xkcd has decreased on my scum meter lately but isn't totally clear.
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I recommend lynching iGrok next day tbh. Getting rid of godfather would be great; it eliminates both the godfather's personal dt shield and the frame ability, making our dt results 100% accurate after the gf is gone. If town doesn't want to lynch him, I hope we have an enterprising young vigilante out there for tomorrow night 
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Woops, didnt see that that was posted, sorry!, I'll edit it out if you ask.
GL townies!
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it's not hard to vote guys
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I wrote some notes while this game was going, nothing mind-breaking, in fact I didn't even reference any posts in particular, but hopefully it's somewhat useful to someone.
GGQ Mafia XL Thoughts
-These will be just rough thoughts on how the game progresses that I’ll post after the game finishes to help the newbies understand what was happening better (hopefully) in case Ver or the other vets don’t. I may or may not clean it up and make it look nicer before I post it. I’ll be jotting things down regularly, so I won’t have the benefit of hindsight when writing. I will have the benefit of knowing the roles list, though (I wanted to know immediately if I was right about iGrok luls).
-so Day 2, happily things started out pretty much as I would have tried to make them go if I was still alive. iGrok is being pressured hard (cheers for those who took up the torch!), forcing a two-person vote that was tight from the very start of the day. This should force mafia out, first to try to divert votes, then to try to defend iGrok to keep him alive.
-as a side note, I see a number of people unconvinced by my analysis, particularly the part where I said that his attempt to show himself as a town leader indicated that he was godfather. I regret that I didn’t have time to go more in depth in that post. What I meant is that iGrok was trying to appear like a leader to town without actually leading town anywhere. As other players pointed out, he was quite passive on day 1. Playing passive on day one is fine, but if you are putting yourself forward as a leader and leading nowhere, chances are that you want the town to go nowhere.
-for those who arent convinced iGrok is scum, here’s a thought process that you should have in a situation like this. The votes are close. Very close, and they have been all day. There’s been no serious attempt to split votes and distract the town. That means mafia aren’t fucking around. One of the two players, iGrok or amazingxkcd, is scum and the mafia are trying to save him. A surprising number of people are actually considering that both of them are scum. What? Really? How does that make sense? What’s the mafia’s plan then? IF they were both scum, you can bet that the thread and the voting list would look MUCH different. There would be accusations flying in every direction creating WIFOM if one of them actually got lynched. Plus they would definitely be bussing each other to make the other look better when lynched. Instead we have xkcd defending iGrok and iGrok pretty much ignoring xkcd. No, only one is scum. You need to look at who is getting sketchier people defending him. In this vote, the sketchier people are defending iGrok and voting for amazingxkcd. Thus we lynch iGrok.
-for those who already believe iGrok is scum, this close lynch should only confirm that for you. Mafia are scrambling to win this lynch. That means you need to look carefully at who is defending him or just avoiding analyzing him. Naturally, some townies will be defending him, but these will generally at least explain their thoughts and reasoning in a believable manner (though it can be hard to identify that in a game full of new players...). As it turns out, almost the entire mafia team has already identified themselves in this way (munk-e hasn’t posted on day 2 yet as of the time of this writing...) Read on to see how.
-aprudds: probably the hardest one to catch, but the first that should have raised suspicions. While town talk is about iGrok’s suspiciousness and whether to lynch him, aprudds says only that my case on him was good with no further explanation or follow through, then proceeds to throw accusations around on drazerk and xkcd and jackal, trying to find another target. Avoids actually discussing iGrok or the arguments against him. Remember that he defended lafali on day 1 as well
-grush, spike, and amazingall: all three bandwagon on xkcd while bringing nothing new against either iGrok or xkcd. Another theme for all three players is that they say something like ‘the case against iGrok is good’ or ‘GGQ’s analysis of iGrok can’t be ignored’ or some shit like that to make it seem like they are at least considering iGrok as a suspect, while in reality they all just vote immediately for xkcd and defended iGrok afterwards. This should ring major alarm bells. They’ve decided before the fact that they are going to defend iGrok and vote xkcd but they don’t want it to look that way
-now, I’m not saying you should have picked these guy out as the scum right away, I doubt I would have gotten all of them either. There were several other people who seemed like they would have been suspicious to me if I didn’t already know the role list. These include impervious who ignored the events of the night and the iGrok issue and instead tried to get everyone to post their experience (“Contributing without contributing”), heist who had his vote on someone irrelevant, and perhaps cherubael for voting xkcd without explanation. Some people suspected Treadmill for constantly defending iGrok, but even though he was wrong about pretty much everything on day 2, the tone and motivation of his posts were clearly townie. But the way that most of the mafia players are making posts trying to make it look like they are doing something that they actually arent should be the red light telling you to lynch them.
-it’s the psychology of these posts that separates them from the posts made by the townies. The mafia KNOW that iGrok is scum, which means that they definitely want to save him. But because they KNOW that he is scum, they also want to distance themselves to avoid appearing suspicious if/when he flips. This contradiction often bleeds through in mafia posts. Knowing more information than the town is an advantage, but it can also be a curse if you fail to hide it well.
-as a side note, I already addressed this in the thread while I was alive, but you guys shouldnt be doing such excessively long analysis. Most of it is irrelevant and just makes people less likely to actually read what you are writing. Even more importantly, don’t make a big list trying to mark everybody as either town or scum on day fucking 2. Chances are very high that you will never be able to know every scum that early in any game you play. Before I died, I would only have listed iGrok as being scum. My secondary suspicions like jimbooo, vain, etc were still too uncertain. The guys I listed as possible suspects like xkcd, senj, monster all would have changed to probably town in my eyes from their posting on day 2. Just try to find one or two scum at a time, then use them to help you find others. You can’t kill more than one scum at a time anyway. Likewise, don’t have too many people that you trust as town because it gives you a subconsious bias when you read their posts later. Most people should be somewhere in the murky middle.
-also, jackal is not scummy in this game. Yeah he played quite poorly on day 2, doing more or less nothing. But his decision to lynch rookie on day 1, while it was a poor read, had no mafia motivation; there was no other lynch or valuable discussion going on that needed to be diverted. Votes were split etc etc
-so munk-e ended up coming in at the last moment and finishing the lynch on xkcd instead of iGrok. When iGrok flips red, that’s suspicious enough, but the fact that both days he’s lurked until the very end, then come in with one post and a vote to avoid modkill should raise eyebrows.
-night 2; it should be clear with xkcd flipping town that iGrok must be mafia. vigis should shoot immediately, and investigations should begin into the people who defended iGrok and voted for xkcd
-ok so apparently iGrok is getting killed instead now. weird and wild. But with him flipping red, there is more than enough evidence out there for a skilled vigilante to shoot grush/spike/awesomeall tonight. munk-e would be a good dt check, and while aprudds has done a good job blending in with his posts, he now shows up on the lafali defense list, iGrok’s don’t lynch list, and the xkcd lynch list. That’s enough to call for a dt check too. Good luck.
-jackal is looking worse and worse as the game goes on. What’s up man? Not really interested in this game?
-jackal was shot, but everyone seems to be pretty much on the right track for now. I’ll probably stop writing this unless something unexpected happens.
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My thoughts in red.
On June 16 2011 16:22 Pyo wrote:EDIT: spilered the quotes since the post was really long and the game is over. Some thoughts on the thoughts: + Show Spoiler +On June 16 2011 13:13 GGQ wrote:
-so Day 2, happily things started out pretty much as I would have tried to make them go if I was still alive. iGrok is being pressured hard (cheers for those who took up the torch!), forcing a two-person vote that was tight from the very start of the day. This should force mafia out, first to try to divert votes, then to try to defend iGrok to keep him alive.
At first I got on iGrok's trail because he was being a jerk. It wasn't until the first night after reading your post that it really occurred to me, he wasn't being an arrogant douche per se, he was just trying to sheep people. At this point I was absolutely sure he was mafia, but wasn't sure exactly how to proceed given that I was a little worried about coming off too obviously town and didn't want to get night hit. IMO, you should never be afraid of getting night hit as a green. If you get night hit, then you are doing it right.+ Show Spoiler +
-for those who arent convinced iGrok is scum, here’s a thought process that you should have in a situation like this. The votes are close. Very close, and they have been all day. There’s been no serious attempt to split votes and distract the town. That means mafia aren’t fucking around. One of the two players, iGrok or amazingxkcd, is scum and the mafia are trying to save him. A surprising number of people are actually considering that both of them are scum. What? Really? How does that make sense? What’s the mafia’s plan then? IF they were both scum, you can bet that the thread and the voting list would look MUCH different. There would be accusations flying in every direction creating WIFOM if one of them actually got lynched. Plus they would definitely be bussing each other to make the other look better when lynched. Instead we have xkcd defending iGrok and iGrok pretty much ignoring xkcd. No, only one is scum. You need to look at who is getting sketchier people defending him. In this vote, the sketchier people are defending iGrok and voting for amazingxkcd. Thus we lynch iGrok.
I was definitely one of those guilty of thinking that they were both mafia. Mostly this was because I was lazy and didn't really think it through, but part of it was me being confused by xkcd's excessively long analysis post filled with bad analysis. I remembered iGrok doing something like it on day 1, so I wasn't really sure what to think about him. I've tried to stress that it's much less about WHAT people do than about HOW and WHY they do them.+ Show Spoiler +
-for those who already believe iGrok is scum, this close lynch should only confirm that for you. Mafia are scrambling to win this lynch. That means you need to look carefully at who is defending him or just avoiding analyzing him. Naturally, some townies will be defending him, but these will generally at least explain their thoughts and reasoning in a believable manner (though it can be hard to identify that in a game full of new players...). As it turns out, almost the entire mafia team has already identified themselves in this way (munk-e hasn’t posted on day 2 yet as of the time of this writing...) Read on to see how.
while it turned out that the entire mafia team did vote xkcd to try to save iGrok, I had become very suspect of the mafia and whether they were actually playing optimally or even in their best interest. After all, why would they double hit you (GGQ) on day 1. That just makes no sense at all. Did they really think your analysis was that dangerous that they had to remove you? Given how correct you were, maybe that was something that iGrok et. al. were cognizant of, but it just didn't make much sense. Given this sub-optimal play, all the mafia having voted for xkcd wasn't such a sure thing to me. I kind of would like to know what a more experienced observer/participant thinks about this. Using two hits to double tap a strong town player on night one is pretty common and definitely a valid strategy. It was very possible that Meapak would have made me a veteran so I could stay alive longer to keep helping and teaching the new players. Plus there was still a third medic alive who could have protected me. It's safest to use two hits to eliminate a player that you view as the most dangerous because if he survives the single hit, then he's practically a confirmed townie which just makes him even more dangerous. I actually posted my analysis of iGrok AFTER the hits were sent in btw, he just double-shot me on principle. It turned out that it wasn't necessary this game, but I wouldnt say it was a bad decision.+ Show Spoiler +
-aprudds: probably the hardest one to catch, but the first that should have raised suspicions. While town talk is about iGrok’s suspiciousness and whether to lynch him, aprudds says only that my case on him was good with no further explanation or follow through, then proceeds to throw accusations around on drazerk and xkcd and jackal, trying to find another target. Avoids actually discussing iGrok or the arguments against him. Remember that he defended lafali on day 1 as well
To be honest, he was the first one I was actually suspicious of in the game because of his day 1 accusation of freeloader. In fact I actually voted for him at first. However, iGrok acted more suspicious and given aprudds limited participation, I figured if he is mafia, then at least he's not trying to mislead or confuse town, so he'd be a lower priority lynch. After the day 2 voting fiasco and all the modkills, he kind of just drifted out of my consideration. Fortunately he reappeared on the defend lafali/vote for xkcd list. + Show Spoiler +
-grush, spike, and amazingall: all three bandwagon on xkcd while bringing nothing new against either iGrok or xkcd. Another theme for all three players is that they say something like ‘the case against iGrok is good’ or ‘GGQ’s analysis of iGrok can’t be ignored’ or some shit like that to make it seem like they are at least considering iGrok as a suspect, while in reality they all just vote immediately for xkcd and defended iGrok afterwards. This should ring major alarm bells. They’ve decided before the fact that they are going to defend iGrok and vote xkcd but they don’t want it to look that way
I realized this too, but I really didn't put 2 and 2 together to realize what this meant. The nagging issue of I'm not experienced, so I don't really know how people would normally act/are expected to act really got me here. Fortunately, we got lucky in that they either modkilled themselves or drew enough suspicion from others. + Show Spoiler +
-now, I’m not saying you should have picked these guy out as the scum right away, I doubt I would have gotten all of them either. There were several other people who seemed like they would have been suspicious to me if I didn’t already know the role list. These include impervious who ignored the events of the night and the iGrok issue and instead tried to get everyone to post their experience (“Contributing without contributing”), heist who had his vote on someone irrelevant, and perhaps cherubael for voting xkcd without explanation. Some people suspected Treadmill for constantly defending iGrok, but even though he was wrong about pretty much everything on day 2, the tone and motivation of his posts were clearly townie. But the way that most of the mafia players are making posts trying to make it look like they are doing something that they actually arent should be the red light telling you to lynch them.
lol impervious was on my list too. In any case that's some interesting advice that I'll keep in mind going forward. + Show Spoiler +
-also, jackal is not scummy in this game. Yeah he played quite poorly on day 2, doing more or less nothing. But his decision to lynch rookie on day 1, while it was a poor read, had no mafia motivation; there was no other lynch or valuable discussion going on that needed to be diverted. Votes were split etc etc
I was so sure that he town that it didn't even occur to me that a vigi would kill him. Given that the list of "experienced" mafia players outlined by iGrok, cross-referenced with looking back at old mafia games, it just didn't make sense for both him and iGrok to be mafia. And he was, I was almost sure that jackal would have been the godfather. + Show Spoiler +
-so munk-e ended up coming in at the last moment and finishing the lynch on xkcd instead of iGrok. When iGrok flips red, that’s suspicious enough, but the fact that both days he’s lurked until the very end, then come in with one post and a vote to avoid modkill should raise eyebrows.
I'm really proud of myself for having picked up on this!! seeing lafali modkill himself by voting late and then TheAwesomeALL stating in the ban list thread (I was just looking at his post history) that he had been trying to vote at the last minute but forgot really sealed the deal for me on Munk-E. Unfortunately, I got night killed after pointing this out. -night 2; it should be clear with xkcd flipping town that iGrok must be mafia. vigis should shoot immediately, and investigations should begin into the people who defended iGrok and voted for xkcd + Show Spoiler +
-ok so apparently iGrok is getting killed instead now. weird and wild. But with him flipping red, there is more than enough evidence out there for a skilled vigilante to shoot grush/spike/awesomeall tonight. munk-e would be a good dt check, and while aprudds has done a good job blending in with his posts, he now shows up on the lafali defense list, iGrok’s don’t lynch list, and the xkcd lynch list. That’s enough to call for a dt check too. Good luck.
-jackal is looking worse and worse as the game goes on. What’s up man? Not really interested in this game?
-jackal was shot, but everyone seems to be pretty much on the right track for now. I’ll probably stop writing this unless something unexpected happens.
After iGrok got lynched and 4 mafia got modkilled, it was basically GG and it seemed as though everyone lost interest in the game. Anyway, thanks for your notes GGQ, some really insightful stuff. I now know who's history to follow to learn how to play this game.
Thanks, but there are much better players than me to follow if you want to see how town is played well. I've developed a pretty good scumdar, but I still lack the ability to persuade people really well.
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On June 16 2011 08:33 gtrsrs wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2011 08:25 Pyo wrote:
well, to be fair, you don't really have to be a dick about it. I mean good job being the first to pick up on iGrok, but rubbing it in like that is just as bad as iGrok being the pompous jack-ass that first tipped you off. nah there's a difference between trying to control the game and getting caught for it then rage-quitting, and being proud of essentially "winning" the game for your team. i deserve to brag a bit. so do you, you articulated what i was feeling about iGrok much better than i did. bigger than being right in this game is convincing other people that you're right, something i've never been super good at. so cheers
I think it's just this part that he's calling you a douchebag for. While you were right about iGrok, you didn't do a lot of convincing for the other townies. My advice to you would be to work on having a stronger thread presence.
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On June 17 2011 02:48 gtrsrs wrote:
also i don't know why you DIDN'T claim vigilante in a close vote like that. i almost certainly would have changed my vote as long as you weren't counterclaimed. same thing to amazingxkcd. if people have ANY inkling that you're blue and you claim before being lynched, they will change their votes until they can be sure they're not lynching a blue
Since we don't know how many of any blue roles there are, a counterclaim on vig would mean nothing at all. In fact there were three vigilantes in this game.
Also, with iGrok claiming vig, I certainly wouldnt have switched off of him. That's the easiest blue role for mafia to fake since mafia can shoot anyways. If he claimed detective or medic I would at least consider not voting for him, but it's hard to be sure what I would do in that situation.
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At the very least, you stir shit up Kurumi, which is what's needed to get things started and get people's real thoughts in the thread. You might not be very accurate in whom you attack, but you'll get better at that over time. I'd advise you to keep up the pressuring, and work on identifying scummy posts. Read as many of Ver's game analysis posts as you can to get a feel of how scum posts. Also, work on staying calm and making your posts clear and logical.
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xkcd actually never checked Kurumi. His 100% town claim wasn't based on a dt check.
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EPT
