TL Mafia XXXIX

On May 04 2011 22:41 Kurumi wrote:
I thought I will have any heavy read by the time I am back and game starts but..
the only thing I saw was
CHAOS.
Saying that,while someone says this,posting some rules being in the other thread,just doing a contribution without any value

On May 05 2011 01:07 Kurumi wrote:
Chaoser,You wouldn't make any effort to defend Yourself if they were onto something,note that Irish backed off into the shadows,while You try to do something. You have two different approaches to play.
Sandroba tries to play the Town Hero,he "has" the sense!
Chaos13 does not know what is going on anymore.

On May 05 2011 01:49 Kurumi wrote:
Thanks Chaoser,I think I did not see that tip in Newbie thread.
I wasn't too cautious,right,but even insane thought can turn out to be true.
I have no idea how to reply.

On May 05 2011 03:13 Kurumi wrote:
13 2 6 3 2 2 13
Thanks for pointing out that I am fearful of using names,thus making my posts inconsistent,weird and often misunderstood. Which posts should I "repair" - that meaning making it totally straight and understandable?

On May 05 2011 03:18 Kurumi wrote:
No,I am just saying that using names all over again is unnatural for me.

On May 05 2011 03:36 Kurumi wrote:
Such unlucky formatting,I had such cool line of numbers from top to the bottom.
I tried to make something happen and yeah I did,but it turned out talking about me is interesting.

On May 05 2011 04:00 Kurumi wrote:
Jackal58
Just a post.

On May 05 2011 04:24 Kurumi wrote:
Punk,You're back! So my pre-emptive lurker vote is obsolete now!

On May 05 2011 04:36 Kurumi wrote:

Shh,he won't allow You on the EXCUSE boat.

On May 05 2011 04:50 Kurumi wrote:
Remember people mentioning the numbers.
Giving away Your biggest weakness might be Your biggest strenght.

On May 05 2011 04:54 Kurumi wrote:
Haha,it was cool first season,then got boring.

On May 05 2011 05:03 Kurumi wrote:
Sorry I didn't call for mass roleclaim,that would not be mysterious and pretty cool Mafia game,eh?

On May 05 2011 05:44 Kurumi wrote:
Hello there Kenpachi,enjoy reading the thread!

On May 05 2011 05:54 Kurumi wrote:
Hey Jackal58,we missed You!

On May 05 2011 00:56 Kurumi wrote:
Drop Chaoser discussion as scum.
He will be probably shot this night because he is good at Mafia and is staying really pro-town.
It is good to see some lurkers waking up!

On May 05 2011 01:09 Kurumi wrote:
Oh,also I am voting on Irish Punk.
Funny how he and chaos have 13 in the end of their nicknames.

On May 05 2011 01:16 Kurumi wrote:
I just note that his behaviour is different from Irish_Punk's and it looks pro-town,because of trying to make party going

On May 05 2011 01:22 Kurumi wrote:
I just find his activeness into lurking suspicious. Why would You stop contributing when You have nothing to fear of?

On May 05 2011 01:32 Kurumi wrote:
Chaoser,did You really grab my crappy contribution posts from SC2 to Mafia forums?
I did not vote because of coincidence,I just saw it.
When I stared my third post I knew that it will go wrong and I will be accused of scum.
Bringing more chaos into Day 1 than there was wasn't my intention.

On May 05 2011 03:35 Kurumi wrote:
13 Eternal - his refers to Chaoser. It was pointed out though Irish_Punk13 might just started doing 2 something besides writing post here on Mafia forums,so his step back into lurker den isn't 6 actually that obvious,just a normal human activity.
3 My point is,Mafia itself would rather not start the discussion(unless it was questions helping them 2 out,like "How do You deal with Mafia claims" "What usually gives out Your identity" etc)
2 The thing that Chaoser and redtooth posted was just a mini-guide how not to fail horribly at Mafia.
13 Still it could be a smoke bomb.

On May 05 2011 04:13 Kurumi wrote:
AirbladeOrange:
"A dead Townie is a good Townie"
I like Your style,as Cave Johnson said!

On May 05 2011 04:33 Kurumi wrote:
Numbers? What numbers? 13 2 6 3 2 2 13?
They're just to cast more suspicion on me,like hey! Random numbers MUST be something!
No. I just felt like typing them.
My type of posting might be connected to English being my second language (the biggest thing is repeating names which I am not comfortable with,where in Polish I need to find 2347234 possibilities to avoid typing the same thing in one,even two sentences.)
It was wrong to assume my thought process will apply to everyone and I understand that mistake.
Just to put some emphasis:
13 2 6 3 2 2 13 is nothing,but I might get some link if You want to make them mystical,You know.

On May 04 2011 23:07 Kurumi wrote:
Your attacks on Chaoser and redtooth are not supported by any evidence than nitpicking,yes they are posting without much value,but we are just starting off.

On May 05 2011 04:15 Kurumi wrote:
Seriously. Never say that dead Town is a good deal,it makes You look weird or even suspicious

On May 05 2011 05:29 Kurumi wrote:
Sandroba,You were the person to grab the number trick to make me suspicious. Easy lynch for scum,isn't it? I don't accuse You of being red but.. You're trying to do it the easiest way. Don't keep doing it,please. When You don't think and just go straight You might miss something.

On May 05 2011 05:30 Kurumi wrote:
Stop doing it,please*
Grammar,the horror!

On May 05 2011 06:09 Kurumi wrote:
So basically I need to do something,because my fishy posting won't be a good defence for myself while I am gone.
Kurumi used Excuse!
Kurumi has some Excuses left!
Excuse:This will be my first time doing a small analysis,so please don't beat me and lay down Your stones,pickaxes,guns or whatever You just picked up.
Thanks.

My thoughts on:
Chaos13
Points out my weird style of posting,numbers and thinks it is huge scum tell. He is thinking on his own rails,probably not trying to doom us all.
Sandroba
Hero of our city!
Scumhunts every post and every post he has new scum tell,amazing how he does it.
Together with Chaos13 is picking on my posting.
Irish_Punk13
Got on my rails or at least tries to understand what I try to tell. Points out AirbladeOrange suspicious behavior. Supposedly works for town.
AirbladeOrange
Wants me dead. Because dead townie is best townie,right? Since I have no contribution value I am worthless. Looks like that is not what he meant actually. Dead townie has no vote privilege!
The less votes are available for town,the better for the scum!
Suspicious,might be scum.
Chaoser
Very careful,does not like me hugging him. This is both-side reaction. Though because it is Day1 and his biggest contribution was the hint post I believe I can't decide who he is.
KillerSOS
Plays for fun,enjoys the game. Agreeds with the Irish_Punk13.
ilovejonn
Is as careful as Chaoser,has good idea who should be looked at.
Kenpachi
Has got this. I mean,the backup plan of course. Is onto something obviously.

Overall,most of people are trying to hop on me,or AirbladeOrange for his bluff about dead townies.
I know this is not SO helpful analysis that You'd hoped for,but look at top of the post.
No. Don't pick up those. Please? It is about my excuse. Many of You already used them,some multiple amount of times,but I have no time to pick on it. I believe I will have time to post tomorrow after school (day ends 5:00 KST,right?)

On May 05 2011 14:48 redtooth wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [Post Write-Up Disclaimer] +
Honestly I would have liked to stay quiet a little bit longer to see how it progressed but since you guys are demanding it, here goes. This essay brought to you by Redtooth, the person who got attacked the last time he made a longpost. Warning, very long:

---

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Reason 1: The Irish Lynch Push
Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. Obviously not many people have been convinced, even though the reasoning behind this is pretty depressing in and of itself.

Back to his strategy. I initially thought that it was just a prolonged Minimalist Approach, something I assumed he was doing ever since he hopped onto my RVS vote. He seemed to have dropped it after a certain point (which was fine with me since it was getting nowhere) but Irish suddenly appeared again as top suspect in a later post making it very clear that Chaoser is still actively pursuing a lynch on Irish.

Since Irish can’t be bothered to defend himself (more on that later), let’s examine Chaoser’s main arguments point-by-point on his behalf (I will paraphrase for the sake of brevity).

First off, that’s not a scumtell. When two people with Ghost icons start attacking you while acting like they know what they’re doing, you pay attention. As a matter of fact, would it not have been more odd if he didn’t react the way he did? I mean who is comfortable with two “vets” pressing you off the bat, regardless of how much support there is to those presses? I’m curious as to what a normal, expected reaction would have been.

I’ll admit, I was pretty surprised at how much traction Irish’s argument got. However, I wouldn’t call it a “chainsaw defense” as much as it is a desperate attempt to look like you’re scumhunting. Irish didn’t have many choices in this position as he was expected to “hunt scum” and produce new and interesting content. He couldn’t accuse himself (duh). On the other hand, you would have spun an accusation if he jumped on the Kurumi wagon. Besides those two, there literally is nothing to go off of up to that point. This scenario is somewhat less likely so I won’t hold Chaoser as accountable for these 2 points.

See above. There is a sudden expectation on him to create novel contributions to the thread and this honestly seems like a very half-hearted attempt to fulfill those expectations. And you’re right it wasn’t an EBWODP. It was an EBWOP. It’s a picky counterargument to a nitpicky argument. What difference does it make? If anything, it perfectly fits his character of noobtown.

You’ve made it very clear that he’s not going to slip your grasp without a serious defense. So why hasn’t he posted one? Because he’s uninterested. Scum is way more likely to fight back til the bitter end (see KillerSOS below) rather than just semi-abandoning a game. It’s not like he’s trying to lurk through it either since his bandwagon seemed to be the biggest at one point.

Now you may be saying, “Hey redtooth! This looks more like a defense of Irish than a FoS on Chaoser.” Well the problem is that either Chaoser should have recognized these or he did recognize but chose to ignore them. Since he seems to be a solid player so far, I’m leaning towards the latter and that is the scummiest action exhibited by anybody in this game so far (essentially actively and knowingly promoting a lynch on obvtown).

Everyone, consider the following questions as objectively as possible:
Is it very possible that Irish is simply a noobtown? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s “chainsaw defense” was actually just a noobtown analysis? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s lack of defense is in his lack of interest in staying alive? Yes
Is it very possible that Chaoser is tunneling, intentional or otherwise? Yes

---

Reason 2: Active Lurking
Town has been giving Chaoser a LOT of credit for “contributing so much”. However, upon closer examination a lot of them are either logistical posts (request to focus, poke on lurkers, answer to questions, etc), offtopic, or pushing one of his four FoS. They all look good but break them down and there is very little to be had.

As shown by one of the posts quoted above, his attention seems to be spread over four people atm: Irish (primary), Kurumi, KillerSOS, Sinani. I’ve already stated why I think Irish isn’t realscum but let’s address the others as well.

Kurumi is that guy. He is the prototypical hyperactive townie who expended all that energy and lost interest midway through game after being pressured. Honestly, when was the last time someone so blatantly scum actually flipped scum? It’s pretty shocking and discouraging to see Kurumi leading in votes. However, it’s a super easy bandwagon to contribute to since there is a wealth of incriminating behavior and an easy target for active lurking.

The FoS on Sinani is based off of one sentence that could easily have been due to him simply not reading the thread with much detail (very much within the realm of possibility since there’s so much clutter). Another easy-to-press person that was pressed. Relatively recent development so we’ll see how it goes.

KillerSOS is actually a great lead (he’s near the top of my list). However, it’s odd that both KillerSOS and Irish are on the list since they are handling the pressure in totally opposite manners (one totally passive, one full aggressive). Odd behavior isn’t always scum behavior, something he should know very well. ANOTHER easy-to-press person to press, regardless of the merit in the argument. I won’t FoS Killer for now since it wouldn’t make sense for one to be on both him and Chaoser at this point.

And by having 4 people FoS’d this early, Chaoser’s also implying that he’s found over half the scum team 36 hours into the game. I don’t know if it is part of his gamestyle to just mass accuse but all it does is create unfocused chatter as attention is split between 10 suspects and lines of arguments get muddled or skimmed over. You’re a liar if you can say that it is easy to focus on what’s happening in the thread right now.

---

Ultimately, Chaoser’s actions haven’t been enough to place a vote on him yet. But since he seems to be steadily increasing his voice in town, I suggest you guys definitely approach his statements more warily then has happened thus far. From what’s been said in the thread, it seems like he played pretty well as town the previous game but that trust shouldn’t necessarily be carried into this game. He may be a great town member but it is just as likely that he is scum. I mean it’s gotten so ridiculous that players are now making blanket threats against those who dare even challenge the great Chaoser. What’s even more surprising is nobody has even said anything about that challenge.

That isn’t to say I FoS’d him just to get you guys to pay attention. I genuinely do think it is suspicious that a “vet” would pursue these weird lynches and FoS. Logistical posts are neutraltells (WHY WONT YOU GUYS UNDERSTAND THIS?) as are offtopic stuff. That leaves just what I perceive to be a real subtle case of active lurking. I’ll watch how it continues to play out and I suggest the rest of town do the same.

On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:
@Chaoser - I don't see how the argument is weak or convoluted. It essentially boils down to two things:

• You are pushing a lynch on Irish, an obvtown
  
• You are FoSing all the easy targets, many of whom are obvtown

Out of all the actions taken in the thread so far, out of all the verbal missteps and the random disappearances and the smurf conspiracy theories, those seem to be the most scummy actions so far.

If you believe Irish to be mafia and have a 70% confidence (pretty high mind you) then why is it that you've partially quit your attempt to press him other then to mention in passing that he's still your top suspect. You accuse me of not focusing but here you have 4 targets set before the town with none earning your full attention. Since you seem to be half-heatedly advocating for the Kurumi lynch, if he flips green would you agree that Irish is green as well? I think Kurumi's lynch is actually even more ridiculous but that's besides the point.

It's not the fact that there is a simple "chance" of these things being likely, it's the fact that there seems to be a high chance of these things happening. I've re-read their posts numerous times and it isn't a far-fetch'd thing to say that most are simply noobtown. They all act suspicious as hell, almost to the point of playing with reckless abandon and not caring about the follwup. Do these sound like scum actions to you?

As for "active lynching", yes I took a very liberal approach to the definition of it. But the bottom line stays the same - every action you took so far has been extraordinarily safe. You called out the people who were easy to call out, regardless of whether they actually seem more like noobtown or not. I can literally run through the thread and call out every ranting member for missteps in word usage and have 10+ well-justified FoS by the end but that doesn't contribute to the thread. What it does do is destroy focus, as evidenced by the game thus far. Scumhunting is incredibly sexy and screams I'M TOWN. Townhunting is not nearly as sexy but just as important and something that you've generally neglected to do. Not every FoS may be a lynch threat but obviously two (Irish and Kurumi) are. And since those two look pretty noobtown, I find it extremely odd that you continue advocating for their lynch.

The reason why I didn't put a vote on you yet was because, I'll admit, there isn't enough evidence to totally convince me that you are scum. Talking percentages, I'd say I'm probably around 40% sure. But that 40% is more confidence I have in you being scum than literally anybody else in the thread except maybe KillerSOS. On the other hand, it doesn't make sense at this point to think both you and Killer are scum so a vote will have to wait until I can clear one or the other.

---

@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS)

Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening.

• Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
  
• Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
  
• Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.

Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed.


On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser.

• Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
  
• Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
  
• Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.

This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this.

This made me late for work zzz.

On May 04 2011 23:54 Lyter wrote:


This is my first game of Mafia on a forum, I've played quite a lot of the Mafia custom on SC2 so I know how it works but I'd consider myself a newbie in a big forum game like this.

On May 05 2011 17:29 Lyter wrote:
I'm not really buying all these random accusations flying around on day 1, maybe its just me, but I'd much rather see a night through so we actually have something to work with, at this point it is just pure guesswork imo.

On May 05 2011 18:20 Lyter wrote:


Ah didn't realise someone had to die, time to do some thinking

On May 05 2011 06:30 Irish_Punk13 wrote:
Okay, I saw that Amber quoted Chaoser asking why I acted the way I did when I posted the link to UG. I didn't mean to come off as being really defensive or anything, I was just trying to give you evidence that I do play with those guys on UG and make it clear that I didn't want to waste any more time on it.
I'm keeping my vote as is for now because I haven't found anything that sounds more suspicious than AirbladeOrange.

I'm going to go focus on my other game for now, and I'll get back to this in a bit.

On May 05 2011 04:22 Irish_Punk13 wrote:
Okay, for now my vote is going on AirbladeOrange for his last post. I don't like the fact that he's okay with the idea of lynching town. Kurumi is making some great posts so far, and I think he's most likely town based off of his actions so far. The fact that you think it's okay to lynch him tells me that you're probably scum, so I'm putting my vote on you.

On May 06 2011 02:13 Takuna wrote:
Hi you all, sry for late posting, but don't worry, now I'm here :D

This is actually my first game here at TL, i played it rl on a couple of (drunk) occasions.
Took quite a while to read the whole thread, so here are my thoughts....

Kurumi:

His average posts arent of a very high quality, but he did force a lot of statements about him by this, with actually should help town regardless of the fact if he is scum or not. But he should be more precise and futue and he is already trying.

Irish_Punk13/Airbladeorange

totally confused by this discussion now. They are cases, but non of them actually convinces me yet enough to lynch them.

For this day i will go with Cthsazsa, he was winding like a snake after being accused, for me the strongest case up to date.

##Vote: Cthsazsa

On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:


Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum.

On May 05 2011 08:24 Beneather wrote:


Could you analyze these posts. So that we can see the scumtells you are telling us. We can't just bandwagon a guy just you say he has 4 posts and had a few scumtells. We need a little more than that.

On May 05 2011 08:40 Beneather wrote:
An inactive person is someone who is not posting or participating in actions is your definition of inactive? I really doubt that the whole mafia team is going to be inactive. It only needs one person to send in the kills. Also, the Host would know that the mafia is inactive and would probrably have to restart the game. So when we here inactive we think of lurkers it's the most logical way to think.

On May 05 2011 06:46 Cthsazsa wrote:
AirBlade's post instantly looked like anti-town. He was suggesting that we lynch Kurumi, and then he said that even if Kurumi is a townie, it's still okay.

On May 08 2011 01:51 Cthsazsa wrote:


I stated my reasons for voting for you, and I was the third person to do so. I would hardly call that bandwagoning. And if you really think that it is, the same came go to you too. You're just following AO and Conversion in their arguments against me so that the attention is diverted away from you, scum.

As for Jackal58's death. Of course that was no coincidence. The mafia is probably using me as a scapegoat. As far as I can tell, the mafia had two benefits from kill Jackal.
1, it would make me look mafia,
2, He was a more experienced player, and if he was removed than he wouldn't be a threat in the future.

Come on, think about it. If you were mafia, why the hell would you kill the person that was on your ass the hardest? That'll just raise even more suspicions. The Mafia is trying to get us to waste our day vote, just as you are trying to get us to waste time from scumhunting with rather useless topics.

On May 08 2011 10:44 Cthsazsa wrote:



Just finished reading through the last 2 pages I missed. I'm rather not sure what to say. Sandroba, AO, Eternalmisfit, you all have some pretty interesting arguments. A few times they've had me reconsider my vote. Especially the ones about Amber and beneather. But my thought on redtooth being scum is still adamant. I apologize if my initial analysis on him was rather vague. I wouldn't even call it an analysis, myself. But a few people have already gave their analysis on him, so I'm just repeating obvious things people have already stated.
I probably appear quiet now because no one's tunneling me? lol.

On May 06 2011 13:57 Cthsazsa wrote:
My take on the situation before I go to bed.


+ Show Spoiler +

Actually, I did do something about it. I looked up Beneather's post history in this thread.
VarpuliS was wrong. Beneather posted 3 times since the game started. The three posts he made don't have much value to them, though.





He asked Forumite to analyze the posts. Forumite did, but very poorly. After Forumite's analysis, Beneather never commented on it. In fact he never talked about it again. This dude's clearly lurking.

As for my one liner, I apologize DropBear. My girlfriend was in the hospital, and I couldn't resist checking up on the thread while I was waiting. So I hastily gave my opinion of him, which was a mistake. I should've waited until now to give my analysis.

DropBear, you also said I didn't do anything about it. Well, neither have you.
And on your post against VarpuliS, you do a really good job pointing out his slipups. You've pretty much stated why he is one of my FoS.



That is exactly what VarpuliS said, you even quoted it. I find that to be a horrible reason to call someone scum. Not because I'm the target in it, but because you can use that argument on literally anyone.


Forumite

Why he is becoming a FoS in my books.

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +


Lets make comparisons between those posts by Forumite.
Each of these posts are either asking a question or making a statement to continue the argument. They aren't worth any value, don't contribute, and all they do is draw out pointless/stupid arguments that don't benefit the town.



In his last post before Kurumi's death, he hops on the bandwagon and switches his vote to Kurumi.

My top 3 FoS right now are Beneather, Forumite, and VarspuliS

On May 05 2011 10:31 sinani206 wrote:
OK, back from practice.

+ Show Spoiler [Redtooth] +

+ Show Spoiler [Chaoser] +

+ Show Spoiler [Jackal58] +

+ Show Spoiler [Irish_Punk13] +

+ Show Spoiler [AirbladeOrange] +

+ Show Spoiler [Cthsazsa] +

+ Show Spoiler [Forumite] +

+ Show Spoiler [Others] +

On May 05 2011 11:41 sinani206 wrote:
Kurumi has just been generally unhelpful and detrimental to the town. Must I say more?

On May 12 2011 01:56 sinani206 wrote:
I am really confused about everything that is going on. I have been reading the thread, but it is hard to understand something as unorganized as this. Maybe I'm missing something?
I am not sure who to agree with. All of the accusations make sense.
Eternalmisfit seems like he could be Mafia, and there is definitely good evidence to prove this.
Ilovejonn claimed townie and seems suspicious, however he was also the one that first FoS'ed EM.
I admit that my accusation of Kevconsim was quite stupid, reading back a few posts, but again, I hadn't seen the post about his emergency when I posted that accusation.
Just because I am the easiest target doesn't mean you should gang up on me. In Sc2 Mafia, when the silent people get lynched, the loud ones turn out to be Mafia.

On May 04 2011 11:39 redtooth wrote:
^ Then please keep your comments out of thread to reduce clutter. Anyways, let us proceed with the game.

Hey Irish_Punk13, I have a question for you:
How good does it feel to be scum?
Want me to explain how I figured it out so fast?

Obvscumtell. Please be more discrete next time. I'll put my vote on as soon as the thread gets made. 1 scum down, 5 to go.

On May 05 2011 14:48 redtooth wrote:

---

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Reason 1: The Irish Lynch Push
Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. Obviously not many people have been convinced, even though the reasoning behind this is pretty depressing in and of itself

On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:
@Chaoser - I don't see how the argument is weak or convoluted. It essentially boils down to two things:

• You are pushing a lynch on Irish, an obvtown
  
• You are FoSing all the easy targets, many of whom are obvtown

On May 06 2011 05:41 redtooth wrote:
Irish I still think is town. Kurumi, I'll have to check again. Still leaning towards town though. Actually, where the hell did you even get that line of thought from my previous post?

On May 04 2011 11:39 redtooth wrote:
^ Then please keep your comments out of thread to reduce clutter. Anyways, let us proceed with the game.

Hey Irish_Punk13, I have a question for you:
How good does it feel to be scum?
Want me to explain how I figured it out so fast?

Obvscumtell. Please be more discrete next time. I'll put my vote on as soon as the thread gets made. 1 scum down, 5 to go.

On May 05 2011 14:48 redtooth wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [Post Write-Up Disclaimer] +
Honestly I would have liked to stay quiet a little bit longer to see how it progressed but since you guys are demanding it, here goes. This essay brought to you by Redtooth, the person who got attacked the last time he made a longpost. Warning, very long:

---

---

Reason 1: The Irish Lynch Push
Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. Obviously not many people have been convinced, even though the reasoning behind this is pretty depressing in and of itself.

Back to his strategy. I initially thought that it was just a prolonged Minimalist Approach, something I assumed he was doing ever since he hopped onto my RVS vote. He seemed to have dropped it after a certain point (which was fine with me since it was getting nowhere) but Irish suddenly appeared again as top suspect in a later post making it very clear that Chaoser is still actively pursuing a lynch on Irish.

Since Irish can’t be bothered to defend himself (more on that later), let’s examine Chaoser’s main arguments point-by-point on his behalf (I will paraphrase for the sake of brevity).

First off, that’s not a scumtell. When two people with Ghost icons start attacking you while acting like they know what they’re doing, you pay attention. As a matter of fact, would it not have been more odd if he didn’t react the way he did? I mean who is comfortable with two “vets” pressing you off the bat, regardless of how much support there is to those presses? I’m curious as to what a normal, expected reaction would have been.

I’ll admit, I was pretty surprised at how much traction Irish’s argument got. However, I wouldn’t call it a “chainsaw defense” as much as it is a desperate attempt to look like you’re scumhunting. Irish didn’t have many choices in this position as he was expected to “hunt scum” and produce new and interesting content. He couldn’t accuse himself (duh). On the other hand, you would have spun an accusation if he jumped on the Kurumi wagon. Besides those two, there literally is nothing to go off of up to that point. This scenario is somewhat less likely so I won’t hold Chaoser as accountable for these 2 points.

See above. There is a sudden expectation on him to create novel contributions to the thread and this honestly seems like a very half-hearted attempt to fulfill those expectations. And you’re right it wasn’t an EBWODP. It was an EBWOP. It’s a picky counterargument to a nitpicky argument. What difference does it make? If anything, it perfectly fits his character of noobtown.

You’ve made it very clear that he’s not going to slip your grasp without a serious defense. So why hasn’t he posted one? Because he’s uninterested. Scum is way more likely to fight back til the bitter end (see KillerSOS below) rather than just semi-abandoning a game. It’s not like he’s trying to lurk through it either since his bandwagon seemed to be the biggest at one point.

Now you may be saying, “Hey redtooth! This looks more like a defense of Irish than a FoS on Chaoser.” Well the problem is that either Chaoser should have recognized these or he did recognize but chose to ignore them. Since he seems to be a solid player so far, I’m leaning towards the latter and that is the scummiest action exhibited by anybody in this game so far (essentially actively and knowingly promoting a lynch on obvtown).

Everyone, consider the following questions as objectively as possible:
Is it very possible that Irish is simply a noobtown? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s “chainsaw defense” was actually just a noobtown analysis? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s lack of defense is in his lack of interest in staying alive? Yes
Is it very possible that Chaoser is tunneling, intentional or otherwise? Yes

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Reason 2: Active Lurking
Town has been giving Chaoser a LOT of credit for “contributing so much”. However, upon closer examination a lot of them are either logistical posts (request to focus, poke on lurkers, answer to questions, etc), offtopic, or pushing one of his four FoS. They all look good but break them down and there is very little to be had.

As shown by one of the posts quoted above, his attention seems to be spread over four people atm: Irish (primary), Kurumi, KillerSOS, Sinani. I’ve already stated why I think Irish isn’t realscum but let’s address the others as well.

Kurumi is that guy. He is the prototypical hyperactive townie who expended all that energy and lost interest midway through game after being pressured. Honestly, when was the last time someone so blatantly scum actually flipped scum? It’s pretty shocking and discouraging to see Kurumi leading in votes. However, it’s a super easy bandwagon to contribute to since there is a wealth of incriminating behavior and an easy target for active lurking.

The FoS on Sinani is based off of one sentence that could easily have been due to him simply not reading the thread with much detail (very much within the realm of possibility since there’s so much clutter). Another easy-to-press person that was pressed. Relatively recent development so we’ll see how it goes.

KillerSOS is actually a great lead (he’s near the top of my list). However, it’s odd that both KillerSOS and Irish are on the list since they are handling the pressure in totally opposite manners (one totally passive, one full aggressive). Odd behavior isn’t always scum behavior, something he should know very well. ANOTHER easy-to-press person to press, regardless of the merit in the argument. I won’t FoS Killer for now since it wouldn’t make sense for one to be on both him and Chaoser at this point.

And by having 4 people FoS’d this early, Chaoser’s also implying that he’s found over half the scum team 36 hours into the game. I don’t know if it is part of his gamestyle to just mass accuse but all it does is create unfocused chatter as attention is split between 10 suspects and lines of arguments get muddled or skimmed over. You’re a liar if you can say that it is easy to focus on what’s happening in the thread right now.

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Ultimately, Chaoser’s actions haven’t been enough to place a vote on him yet. But since he seems to be steadily increasing his voice in town, I suggest you guys definitely approach his statements more warily then has happened thus far. From what’s been said in the thread, it seems like he played pretty well as town the previous game but that trust shouldn’t necessarily be carried into this game. He may be a great town member but it is just as likely that he is scum. I mean it’s gotten so ridiculous that players are now making blanket threats against those who dare even challenge the great Chaoser. What’s even more surprising is nobody has even said anything about that challenge.

That isn’t to say I FoS’d him just to get you guys to pay attention. I genuinely do think it is suspicious that a “vet” would pursue these weird lynches and FoS. Logistical posts are neutraltells (WHY WONT YOU GUYS UNDERSTAND THIS?) as are offtopic stuff. That leaves just what I perceive to be a real subtle case of active lurking. I’ll watch how it continues to play out and I suggest the rest of town do the same.

On May 07 2011 02:02 redtooth wrote:
XXXIX Town Official Argument Standards:

• All official accusations and arguments must be prefaced by the sentence:
  
  I, USERNAME, have given much thought to the following argument and have relatively high confidence in its accuracy.
  This sentence (and the red font) is there to encourage people to not just throw out arguments they don't believe in.
  
• Make separate posts and headings for each person you make an official, on-the-record argument against. This is so we can refer to it easier and take in information piecemeal instead of through information overload.
  
• No more than 4 quotes per argument against a player. This is to discourage quotewalls nobody reads and to encourage people actually thinking about what evidence they present. If you need to quote him 10 times to prove he's scum, you're doing it wrong. Select the ones you find most incriminating and quote those, nothing more. Unlimited references, paraphrasing, and "shortlinking" (hyperlinking without the full URL) is allowed.
  
• If an official argument sounds valid to you, request to cosponsor it. Arguments not cosponsored within 3 pages or 3 hours (whichever come later) will be dropped. If your argument is dropped, you personally will not be able to make an official argument against the same suspect until the next round (day and night count as separate rounds). If another person makes an argument against the same suspect, you can cosponsor that one and add your reasonings to it. An official argument can have any number of cosponsors to signify its strength and support. Any sponsor (main arguer) of an argument may remove people from the cosponsor list at his discretion. Any cosponsor can remove himself from an argument and, if that was the only cosponsor, that argument will be given the same timeframe (3 pages or 3 hours) to find another.
  
• Additions made to your argument in later posts must be headed by a link (via "#" button) to the addition you most recently made or, if none exists, the initial argument. This is for ease of tracking your argument. It is your obligation to convince us, not our obligation to be convinced by you. Make it as easy as possible for us to follow.
  
• All new arguments made from this point forth cannot link to your previous argument. We are starting over. Even if it’s the same argument, write it up again following these standards. Keep it focused, efficient, and clear.
  
• There is no obligation for me or any player upholding these standards to recognize any arguments not made through these means. This is to incentivize people into actually following the standards.
  
• Failure to abide by these rules will be automatically receive a pFoS (partial Finger of Suspicion) by me. I will treat these like normal FoS and move forward with the assumption that the person is scum with the intention to derail the town.

On May 08 2011 01:28 redtooth wrote:
I know you guys don't care anymore but I'm still doing it.

I, redtooth, have given much thought to the following argument and have relatively high confidence in its accuracy.

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Cthsazsa is SCUM
because of two reasons:
- Jackal died.
- He hasn't been posting productively.

The reason why we wait til Day to analyze is so we can do it with more information (instead of tunneling based on feelings). The aidnai and KillerSOS kills were perfectly within the realm of reason. The question is why Jackal died.

Last night I was thinking to myself that if I were scum I would try to break one of the three quality focused presses (me on Chaoser, Chaoser on Irish, Jackal on Cthsazsa) regardless of the alignment of the target. The reason why the alignment shouldn't matter is because the subsequent argument is entirely WIFOM so it derails the town no matter which way it goes.

However, I'm a bit surprised it was Jackal who died. Chaoser, when not pressing obvtowns, has been very protown looking almost to the point where he was Town God. I'm a polarizing figure but I hunt scum very hard. This gives scum the perfect opportunity since doctors aren't going to save us and they can knock one of us down before either gets any real traction. Also, it causes a WIFOM attack on the other ("See chaoser is green!" against me, "You killed redtooth because he was the only one pressing you!" against chaoser) so it's a double win.

On the other hand, Jackal posted a list of five scum he thinks he's found already. Anybody who posts a list of the entire other team isn't worth paying attention to (although among all of the fullteam lists posted, that one actually made the most sense in terms of intra-team alliances). Also, Jackal hasn't even been a big voice in town anyways and hasn't dropped any PR tells.

That means that the focus on Cthsazsa was broken for another reason since it clearly wasn't the optimal kill. The first and most obvious explanation is that the focus-break was an attempt to get heat off of one of the scumteam. This isn't too much of a stretch to say since he has beena cting pretty scummy so far. Let's look at the following:
The problem isn't with what he posted. The problem is with when he posted this. Lynches aren't the only things with bandwagons and attacking my initiative is probably the safest bandwagon you could jump on. There was an overwhelming backlash but at this point everything that had to be said had already been said. Compare this behavior with DropBear, who I said is town. He posted ridiculous conspiracy theories about why I'm scum and he did it early and he did loud and he did it often. Cthsazsa, not really known for being too quiet and having a controlled ego, simply lurked in at the last second with a very subtle attack. If anything, something as polarizing as my initiative should have either had his full-fledged criticism or full-fledged defense. Something's not right here.

Also, there's this post. Organized scum dole out various roles to the team. If you think I'm crazy, read "Knowing your strengths and knowing your goal" here. Cthsazsa is the prototypical "get-them-emotional" type of player. His defense wasn't substantive at all outside of "You're stupid so you're wrong", aka a non-defense. Also add to this the fact that he had never posted a substantive defense against Jackal as well outside of "you're being an idiot". KillerSOS exhibited this behavior to a certain extent (though not nearly as bad) and he was a PR. Townies don't make moves like this and if the scum was willing to risk a hit on Killer why weren't they risking a hit on Cthsazsa?

For now, Cthsazsa is my #1 lynch target. I have others in mind but none as confident as this one. I will be on a bus ride 'til late night but if he chooses to continue ignoring the cases made against him, that's an easy kill.

On May 07 2011 03:50 redtooth wrote:
Disregarding Other People's Analysis - Of all the clauses, this is the most important. We have absolutely 0 power in enforcing this standard within the rules of the game. Since we can't ask Node to impose it, it has to be voluntary and obviously that hasn't worked out so well so far. This is the ratification clause that gives the biggest incentive you can get (acceptance into discussions) in exchange for upholding our high standards.