EPTTL Mafia XXXIX
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On April 30 2011 12:37 bumatlarge wrote: /out My nemesis has been defeated bwahaha! Now I can make absurd, poorly thought out roleclaims and get away with it! | ||
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On May 02 2011 18:15 Barundar wrote: Wednesday, May 04 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) .... right? Lol Barundar you'll be listened to eventually  On April 27 2011 22:59 Barundar wrote: I would definitely recommend the [time ] command to anyone who host, it's a great feature for us who really can't tell the difference between the US time zones  Does the date tag do the whole thing? Or is it better to use time? I might have to steal that idea! | ||
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On May 02 2011 18:36 GMarshal wrote: shhh, don't let them know about the secret mechanics yet... This delay has nothing to do with any secret roles or mechanics that may or may not be able to influence the flow of time in the game! Carry on now! And so Barundar was Really looking forward to this! | ||
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On May 04 2011 16:27 redtooth wrote: + Show Spoiler + Longpost: Hello all. Your friendly neighborhood redtooth (aka WRAWRAWRAWRA) here. I've been gone from this forum for quite a long time so there are a lot of new faces that I don't really recognize. Some of you I do recognize but it has been too long for me to remember your meta anyways. Before we continue, let's just lay down a framework-of-sorts for being awesome: Rule 1: Don't lurk Lurking is bad - this is the first thing you should learn as a mafia player. In a worst-case scenario, the town may policy-lynch you and waste an entire day simply because you were too forgetful or too lazy to post . In a best-case scenario, you are still a potential scum suspect simply because you were lurking, a situation that could have been avoided had you actively contributed to the thread. If you want to win then don’t lurk. However, lurking isn’t limited to not posting either. “Active lurking” (the act of posting already stated ideas or not contributing any novel content in a post) is just as detrimental to the town and should be avoided at all costs. You don’t have to reinvent the wheel with every post but do your best to be as pro-town as possible in each and every post. Rule 2: Don't spam While activity within the thread is highly encouraged, creating meaningless and contentless clutter is just as anti-town an action. There will be varying degrees of time commitment exhibited by the other players and it discourages people from actively and substantively posting if there are 30 pages of clutter they have to go through every time they log on. That means no one-liner posts, even if they are votes (you should be explaining your vote anyways). Also included in that category are off-topic shit, comments on how exasperated you are, etc. On the flip side, don’t create massive walls of quotes as they simply get gleaned over more often than not (I am breaking my own rule here with this post). Random townies are more likely to quit out of boredom than scum are so try your best to be concise and be precise. On that note, if non-players (coaches, audience, not-mods) could keep their discussions out of the thread the town would greatly appreciate it. Let’s create a clutter-free environment. Rule 3: Never Give Up This is directed at townies. If you're scum, by all means feel free to give up and get modkilled or bussed. However, as mentioned above, it is likely that townies will lose interest in the game much faster than scum will. There are two provisions to this rule: don't stop participating and don't stop defending. Sometimes your ideas are overlooked or cast aside simply due to the number of strategies or targets being promoted. That doesn’t mean you should stop participating. The town may be tunneling, they may be overlooking something, you may see a scumtell nobody else believes, etc. Each members’ participation is vital to a successful town operation. Also, there will be cases where you feel extremely frustrated at the (bullshit) evidence being thrown at you despite the fact that you are town. While you may not want to purposefully drag attention to yourself beforehand (since it would be better served looking for actual scum), you should relish the opportunity to defend yourself. A well explained defense can raise the confidence others have in you and gives you more credence in town. Also, getting lynched when you’re town is not only bad for yourself but bad for the town. Do your best to stay alive. No matter how daunting the argument is, don’t give up and keep fighting until you take your last breath or the town sees the light. Rule 4: Kill Scum It’s such a simple rule but people (including myself) tend to forget it consistently. Every action you take should ultimately be an attempt to promote town activities and hunt/find scum. Disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing is not something that we benefit from and only serves to boost your ego and create rifts in the town. However, if you really feel that playing devil’s advocate is necessary then by all means go ahead. At the same time, be wary of tunneling (focusing exclusively on one person) as your conviction may convince others to pursue an incorrect lynch. Always have an open mind and a desire to be correct more than to win in your argument. Just remember to keep the main objectives in mind: find scum, prosecute scum, lynch scum, beat scum. Rule 5: Have Fun Ultimately, the game is meant to have fun. I will be the first person to admit that this is not always the case as emotions often run rampant. However, do your best not only to have fun for yourself but to promote fun for others. That means trying not to get personal with arguments/defenses and trying your hardest to be the best player you could possibly be. Also, many players are discouraged when they are given the role of town. Sometimes we think it’s a curse to be one of the many generic roles. People have different tastes but I personally believe it to be just as fun (if not more fun) than being scum. If you’re still not motivated, think of it this way: while sheeping the town is a great feeling, there is no better feeling than nailing a good scum to the wall after a war of words. Be active, be intelligent, kill scum, and enjoy. Those were all I could think of for now. Follow these guidelines and SCUM WILL LOSE GUARANTEED. Go town! This post is kind of unnecessary. In answer to your question, I have played one game before (XXXVIII) in which I was a Mafia Roleblocker. On the first day of that game 2 people made long "policy" posts like this, GMarshal who was mafia and trying to look pro-town and Kavdragon who was townie and got lynched. You are either a mafia trying to hide in plain sight or just trying to launch some discussion. The lack of a mayor role to convince people that you are pro-town suggests mafia, your post history suggests that you talk a lot though. Your pushing of people also reminds me of DocH last game. You have piqued my interest but I'm not accusing you of anything just yet. Regarding the defences of Irish_Punk, I don't see too much there. I can speak from experience in that being accused of being scum by an experienced player in your first game makes you panic a bit and post poorly, I think Conversion can say the same. It isn't enough to go on yet. Chaos13 is likely defending him because they are mates from outside TL. We still haven't heard from many players yet. I would like to hear from aidnai who was a very vocal blue last game. Kenpachi also has a much smaller thread presence than usual. GGQ, Mig, Amber[Light], jaminz, Beneather talk more! | ||
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On May 04 2011 15:09 AirbladeOrange wrote: I think this long of a post is more suspicious than anything irish punk dude said. Could you expand on this please AO? He's said a lot here and unlike redtooth it's substantial beyond "this is how to play guide" | ||
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eternalmisfit varpuliS sinani206 elmizzt Lyter Takuna Cthsasa Node, this may seem like a question with an obvious answer, but can a Day Vigilante be roleblocked? It's pretty good for us if not. On May 04 2011 22:48 sandroba wrote: Ok, so I've caught up right now and something in particular has caught my attention. That's all fine and all but the thing I find extremelly suspicious about this post is this: Chaoser points out how redtooth post is pro-town and then he proceeds to do exactly what redtooth did. Why are making such a huge effort to appear pro-town chaoser? This post would have exactly the same content without the bolded part. The only thing this part adds is making YOU look more town. Chaoser is quite active so far and his history has been that he is much more active as town than mafia. I don't think he is worthy of suspicion as yet. Waiting on a reply from AO. Kita has still not replied to chaoser. | ||
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SUSPICIOUS PEOPLE Beneather Redtooth Cthsazsa Irish_Punk13 First of all, Beneather. He was the last person to join the game and has 12 posts thus far. Only 4 have been after he got his role. His activity has dropped sharply. On May 04 2011 12:01 Beneather wrote: /confirm Let's get this show started! :D Nothing of note here. On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote: Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum. You haven't said anything here that others haven't said. On May 05 2011 08:24 Beneather wrote: Could you analyze these posts. So that we can see the scumtells you are telling us. We can't just bandwagon a guy just you say he has 4 posts and had a few scumtells. We need a little more than that. Looking for a bandwagon? Asking people to provide analysis but providing none yourself? Contradictions. On May 05 2011 08:40 Beneather wrote: An inactive person is someone who is not posting or participating in actions is your definition of inactive? I really doubt that the whole mafia team is going to be inactive. It only needs one person to send in the kills. Also, the Host would know that the mafia is inactive and would probrably have to restart the game. So when we here inactive we think of lurkers it's the most logical way to think. More about inactivity and repeating himself. Beneather is currently my number 1 suspect as he has done nothing to help and is trying to blend in. Redtooth said a whole lot of nothing in his large posts so far. He has gone quiet once his initial moves failed to get the reactions he desired. People have been comparing him with chaoser but I find their posts to be quite different. Redtooth says a whole lot less than chaoser does. Cthsazsa is getting tunneled very hard by Jackal, but he hasn't actually said anything to clear himself. He is currently my number 2 suspect. Irish_Punk13 has been done repeatedly so far by others and I have nothing new to add. I am slightly less suspicious of him than the others, he is a new player on a new forum and was attacked early. The interactions between himself and Kurumi are interesting. He is worth keeping an eye on very closely, but he is not as strong a candidate as Beneather for mine. ??? PEOPLE Kurumi On Kurumi, I have no idea what to think about this guy. I'm reserving judgement for now. I will say that trying to use his starcraft2 posts as an example of poor posting is poor thinking. All starcraft2 posting is poor ( jokes). Kurumi, post more stuff that isn't random numbers. You look like Chezinu and if you are town you may end up getting us a mislynch down the track which should be used on a mafia.CONCLUSION I am voting for Beneather as I find him to be lurking, have altered his posting since the game started and doing a whole lot of nothing to help town. | ||
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I have played on a scum team with him before in XXXVIII. He was very wishy-washy and the only thing that cleared him was a massive bus on him by GMarshal who was very obviously our fellow mafioso. He took quite some time to decide on what he should post and hence posted less frequently. He is also posting rarely this game. His accusation of chaoser has still not been explained. The post about lynching eternalmisfit was... interesting. However I think his posting is slightly different from last game when he was mafia. He is more aggressive and is more clear with what he has to say. He hasn't been afraid to stand by his opinions. Here are some of his early posts from last game. Note that this was a game when the first day was about mayor elections so it is slightly different.: On April 10 2011 18:10 AirbladeOrange wrote: Hello. I just got off my temp ban and had to read through 438967346 pages here. For the mayor situation, it just seems so difficult to actually pick a good mayor at the beginning of the game. Everyone who's running seems like they have an equally valid reason for why people should vote for them. Hell, I probably would have run if I weren't temp banned. My instincts tell me to vote for the flashy guy. Marshal seems like he would be a guy with a fancy looking suit based on the pretty pictures presented in his campaign post. On April 11 2011 05:07 AirbladeOrange wrote: What are your reasonings? I feel like its impossible to think we know much of anything at this point. How can you even say we "know you're not mafia?" I may be the village idiot, but I acknowledge the fact that we don't really know anything. At least as a collective group. Both Kavdragon and Gmarshal had decent posts for mayor, but you just never know. Unless you know thing that I or others do not. On April 14 2011 16:12 AirbladeOrange wrote: I think Prot is black too. His analysis in general is very good, but so is his ability to manipulate town opinion. This he will undoubtedly use to further his own goals, which may or may not coincide with the town's goals at a given time, but ultimately I think has to deceive us. He has to figure out the other assassins and take them out. This is not our game plan as town. We need to kill reds. I'm not going to vote yet as there is plenty of time tomorrow to see if any new developments happen. With M0nsterChef doing a suicidal blue claim, my next target has been ON (or his replacement LSB). I'm going to keep playing this out sticking to my own convictions and see where that gets us. I certainly don't trust Coag any more than the author of his big analysis, Protac. But I still fail to see any reason to lynch him over LSB for reasons that began before day one. Not lynching Coag now does not mean that we can never lynch him again. As long as we don't forget the analysis done on him and why he is suspicous, I'm not too worried about him. I see many people in this game that seem to completely change their stances or take multiple stances in a short amount of time due only to other players' analysis. I might even put GMarshal ahead of Coag on my scum list. But I will deal with that if/when the time comes. There are definitely players I trust more than others but I'm not going to change my stance or my vote just because of another opinion post. There are over a hundred pages of those (mixed in with a good deal of spam). A lot can be learned if people put more of an emphasis on reading rather than posting. Out of 122 pages, there are probably only enough worthwhile posts to fill less than 10 of the pages. It sucks having to wade through all this shit, which is why I choose to trust myself and a closely follow a few solid posters to help get through the unimportant posts to examine the ones that have a higher probability of actually being useful. I think pretty soon GMarshal will come at me again, just like he does every time I post. He doesn't really say anything as a mafia and repeatedly points out how noone can know enough to vote for anyone. In this game he has been more active in accusing people and generating discussion. He is a person of interest but not as much as the 5 in my previous post. | ||
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On May 05 2011 11:18 chaoser wrote: I've noticed ilovejohn, aidnai, redtooth, orgolove, kenpachi (lawl), amber, GGQ, and kita, all "vet" players, haven't posted much in terms of analysis and commenting on current happenings. What up guys? On May 05 2011 11:23 Jackal58 wrote: Stop for a second guys. Everybody that has been placed on your individual scumlists are pretty much noobs. If you think Node put together a scum team of all noobs you need to rethink who you are pushing. GGQ where are you? I would also like to hear more from these players. Kitaman27 in particular was very active last game in a town power role and has been completely mia in this game. | ||
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and there are 6 players on the team not just four. | ||
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Lyter has 3 posts in the thread since the game began properly, 5 overall. On May 04 2011 23:54 Lyter wrote: This is my first game of Mafia on a forum, I've played quite a lot of the Mafia custom on SC2 so I know how it works but I'd consider myself a newbie in a big forum game like this. That's cool, fair enough. On May 05 2011 17:29 Lyter wrote: I'm not really buying all these random accusations flying around on day 1, maybe its just me, but I'd much rather see a night through so we actually have something to work with, at this point it is just pure guesswork imo. On May 05 2011 18:20 Lyter wrote: Ah didn't realise someone had to die, time to do some thinking Um, lol? This is either really nooby or just plain trying to hide. Take a stance! On May 05 2011 22:24 Lyter wrote: ##Vote: Irish_Punk13 You obviously did your thinking. You have no other posts after your thinking post though. Please explain? I am not accusing you just yet but I'd like to hear your reasoning. | ||
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There doesn't seem to be much opposition to his lynch so far, just Redtooth and himself. He's winning quite easily. Surely if he were mafia there'd be more resistance? I'm not convinced by what's been said. He is posting strangely but isn't enough for me to suspect him yet. There are a LOT of people who are hiding. Beneather Mig Amber[Light] Kenpachi GGQ Rising_Phoenix Takuna all need to talk more. The discussion is being completely dominated by the same few players. My vote remains on Beneather. | ||
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I forgot to include Lyter in my list of people who are very quiet. | ||
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On May 06 2011 02:25 Kurumi wrote: So my Sandroba Analysis is still left undiscussed? Give me a minute | ||
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On May 05 2011 23:07 Kurumi wrote: Sandroba The Hero of our game so far! First,he votes on Rising_Phoenix + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 01:35 sandroba wrote: ##Rising_Phoenix Ok,fine. His reasoning? + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 01:06 sandroba wrote: You keep doing it in all your posts! Either way I don't feel like you are a good day1 lynch, but I'd like your opinion on this wall of nothingness: This post is the scummiest I've seen so far. He shuts down all ideas as useless, states the obvious multiple times and he even feels the need of repeating himself to make his post larger. He closes it in a beautiful whishy-washy fashion. Really,just because Phoenix does not like the idea of guide posting does not mean he is scummy and wants an easy game,chill! Also I like how he says about big amount of nonsense repeated,when there's nothing bolded or emphasized on. I agree with Sandroba here. This is post IS suspicious. Rising_Phoenix contradicts himself twice in this post that I can see. His commentary on the smurf argument (sorry for raising that Node ) is bizarre to say the least.SANDROBA TO CHAOSER,DO YOU HEAR ME? + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 01:33 sandroba wrote: Chaoser, can you give your opinion on the post I just quoted? This is weird. Why would You engage a player,I understand Chaoser is a vet,when we have 2 townie and 2 scum coaches. What's the point? You just want to know what Chaoser thinks of Your posting? Are You a scum waving to scum in those old fashion big nose and huge eyebrows camouflage? Sandroba already FoS'd chaoser here. He was probably looking for a reaction to help on his read. After Chaoser responds + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 01:41 chaoser wrote: Sorry, I didn't see it. He has a good point about not going straight for lynching inactives as well as previous game experiences. I disagree with his newbie guides statement. Clearly some people need to use it so making a conscious effort to link them and be like please read them in full is needed. I'm sure most people have skimmed them at best and outright not read them at all at worst. His last statement is wishy-washy. Assessment: I don't think it's more scummy than you, Kurumi or Irish/chao13 at this point. Just because he shot ideas down doesn't mean he's scummy, that's him expressing his opinion. At the same time, clearly what he stated isn't common sense/obvious since people followed along and focused on previous game experiences. You can't just look at one post and say OMG YOU'RE SCUM! It's behavior over time that tips you off on it. Like I said before, if you feel he is scummy, write it down on a notepad or excel sheet (which is an action I know MOST people DON'T DO!) and compare it to future statements. At this time and period though I think Kurumi is infinitely more scummy. He goes for counter attack on my Hero joke! Wait,but You just were scumhunting,Rising_Phoenix was suspicious! Was it Chaoser who pointed out that I am scummy and You should focus on me? He probably felt for taunt,You know. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 01:54 sandroba wrote: Also, shooting down ideas without sugesting something better IS scummy as hell. OH COME ON! You just went with accusation versus Phoenix because he explained how he felt about guides and day 1 lynches,then dropped it! Is Your strategy to suggest everyone is scum unless someone actually believes You? Sounds solid,just like TheMango's SC2 builds. I agree with you that this is odd. His case against Rising_Phoenix was dropped very quickly. However the Kurumi debate has been very prominent and he was probably distracted by it. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 04:46 sandroba wrote: What the hell? Kurumi you have easily earned my vote. You make no sense at all. How exactly you feel you are helping town by posting random crap and generating confusion? I read a bunch of other posts from you in other threads and I wonder how I can understand them so easily, while in this thread not at all. Oh man,that feeling when I reeled my first fish together with Dad,so awesome. I WANTED someone to respond and start sniffing around it. Also,he goes with Chaoser's post about how my SC2 forum posting is different from Mafia one. I also agree with this. Posting in this forum is bound to be different than in the rest of TL and should be ignored. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 01:27 chaoser wrote: Your posting structure here and in general is clearly very different from your general posting structure: Why are you trying to misrepresent your competence after making a scummy post? Oh man,they're teaming up on me already! This implies that you think chaoser is scum as well. You posted earlier "drop the discussion of chaoser as scum". I'm confused by this. HEY YOU + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 05:27 sandroba wrote: orgolove, and how do you feel about kurumi insane posting and irish_13/Killer_SOS poping out of the blue to defend him for no apparent reason? I want You to do an analysis for me! Yeah,because I am the boss here,the HERO You know. Start doing something Yourself before making someone help You. This doesn't mean anything. He's trying to get orgolove to post. Orgolove has been quiet, it's a reasonable thing to ask. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 05:33 sandroba wrote: I'm not talking about JUST the number trick. I'm talking about ALL your "posts" (spam) so far. If you are town and insane (not likely based on all your other posts in the forums) realize that you are not helping at all. COME ON DROP MY POSTING FROM SC2 GENERAL! Is this really the only clue You have against me,oh wait the clue isn't Yours! It is Chaoser's! Where is Your real contribution? You are like kid running around on the playground and accusing others of taking Your toy because they did not want to play with You. You have been posting pretty wierdly man. I haven't seen anyone post like you before. He probably interprets it as scum because it's strange. Conclusion: Sandroba tries to make look himself pro-town by jumping on my weird posting and teaming up with weird Chaoser's SC2 general posts thing,does not write anything good though. Besides his fast abandoned attack on Phoenix,rest of his posts were repeating how anti-town I am and what others think of him fighting with the bad guys! Your analysis hasn't convinced me about Sandroba, in fact you have made me feel quite the opposite. I think you're trying to help but I'm not certain on anything about you. You're unlike any poster I've read before! Your attempts to help and the lack of opposition to your lynch makes me lean toward thinking you are town. | ||
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SUSPICIOUS PEOPLE UPDATED Beneather redtooth VarpuliS Cthsazsa sinani206 ilovejonn Lyter Yes I realise there are seven names there. PEOPLE I AM UNSURE ABOUT chaos13 Rising_Phoenix orgolove My feelings on Beneather have not changed. It does not seem that I can convince anyone to join me so I'll likely switch to Cthsazsa as he has the most votes of my suspects. On redtooth, I just wanted to point out this: On May 06 2011 06:06 redtooth wrote: Why KillerSOS is scum. I don't think he's as scummy as Chaoser. However, they're probably not both scum so I haven't pushed for a two pronged press in opposite directions. Let's start off by examining something someone else said (since my credibility seems to be shot at this point):Look at the second bolded part. That is typical noobscumtell - overreacting and defending through quantity, not quality. Jackal is right in that Cthsazsa has exhibited this behavior but so has KillerSOS and to a much greater extent IMO. His posts have acknowledged the viable arguments against him but simply ignored them. Here's the explanation for these guys: "They are scum who overreacted when called out. However, instead of addressing the arguments against them, they try to ignore them like its a non-story but continue to participate in the thread regardless." The first bolded part is there because I agree. But we'll have more time for that later. Ultimately, there simply isn't enough time for me to argue a lynch on Chaoser, especially since I have a final tomorrow so won't be as active for the rest of the day. I'll just wait until post-lynch when I can start off every post with "Hey I'm redtooth. I told you so." You may not be a noob, but you're doing exactly what you say is scum play. You then go and derail things with a discussion about the chances of a day vig finding a target? I'm not sure how this helps at all. I can't tie you to either of the major lynch targets so I'm not as strong on you as I am the other candidates on the list. | ||
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Lyter, ilovejonn are on the list for lurking like crazy and when they do post, saying little of value. I'm busy atm, will post my cases against Cthsasza, sinani206 and VarpuliS when I get the chance. On May 06 2011 04:08 GGQ wrote: This post rings some bells in my head. There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote. Doing a PbP in this instance feels like an attempt to gain townie cred for nothing. It was an attempt to get him to speak. I used all the information to highlight exactly why I'm calling him out. If you're suggesting it is filler, I disagree. He only has 3 posts so a play by play shows everything he's said, which isn't much (precisely why I'm calling him out). | ||
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22 posts since the game started for real, starting with 228. On May 05 2011 07:12 VarpuliS wrote: I just read through the thread, and I'm not sure exactly what to think. My biggest FoS right now is on Rising_Phoenix. He hasn't been lurking, exactly, but rather making vacuous posts. Active =/= scummy. Why are you telling people to stop talking? This is not pro-town. It's pretty ironic that you're telling people to stop spamming by making an empty spam post. When you start posting content, you can tell people to stop spamming. Your post is pretty empty yourself. I am interested in the fact that very early on you say that active does not mean scummy. Why not? On May 05 2011 08:36 VarpuliS wrote: A very common scum technique is to act suspicious of other scum, so that when/if they flip red you can say "I knew it" and seem pro-town. What the hell is this post? Inactive players are not pro-town because they
This is either a really stupid post or a really scummy post. I honestly can't tell which. Lynching an inactive day 1 is common, because it is rare to have enough information/analysis to peg any actual scum. A lynch based off of solid analysis is always to be preferred, of course. Ultimately, town wants to get rid of all inactive players before lylo, when each vote and opinion counts, while scum wants to keep as many inactives alive as possible, because they're useless to the town and just add uncertainty. On May 05 2011 08:40 VarpuliS wrote: It is very hard to tell which is which. Thus, inactives must be treated as lurkers, or else lurking scum could just hide as inactives and be safe. that would be bad. The best course of action is to pressure the lurkers into posting. If they are truly inactive, they get modkilled and we move on. I'm not talking about them, i'm talking about the "posting so I don't get modkilled today" kind of poster. I consider them inactive as well. You are repeatedly talking about inactives but you go to absolute no lengths to actually bring them out. Noone is named, no requests are given. This is all pointless. VarpuliS was very strongly on the Kurumi lynch. Here is his case: On May 05 2011 11:15 VarpuliS wrote: Kurumi Kurumi's posts can be divided into two categories. Useless spam, and misleading drivel, and actual content Useless spam. + Show Spoiler + On May 04 2011 22:41 Kurumi wrote: I thought I will have any heavy read by the time I am back and game starts but.. the only thing I saw was CHAOS. Saying that,while someone says this,posting some rules being in the other thread,just doing a contribution without any value I have no clue what that is even supposed to mean. Not helpful, just spammy. On May 05 2011 01:07 Kurumi wrote: Chaoser,You wouldn't make any effort to defend Yourself if they were onto something,note that Irish backed off into the shadows,while You try to do something. You have two different approaches to play. Sandroba tries to play the Town Hero,he "has" the sense! Chaos13 does not know what is going on anymore. This post makes a lot of statements without really saying anything. Spam. On May 05 2011 01:49 Kurumi wrote: Thanks Chaoser,I think I did not see that tip in Newbie thread. I wasn't too cautious,right,but even insane thought can turn out to be true. I have no idea how to reply. What does this contribute? "crazy shit can be right," so I'm not going to defend my opinion. On May 05 2011 03:13 Kurumi wrote: 13 2 6 3 2 2 13 Thanks for pointing out that I am fearful of using names,thus making my posts inconsistent,weird and often misunderstood. Which posts should I "repair" - that meaning making it totally straight and understandable? Why the hell are there numbers at the top of this posts? Rest is nonsensical. On May 05 2011 03:18 Kurumi wrote: No,I am just saying that using names all over again is unnatural for me. Fine, but not a contribution, so technically spam. On May 05 2011 03:36 Kurumi wrote: Such unlucky formatting,I had such cool line of numbers from top to the bottom. I tried to make something happen and yeah I did,but it turned out talking about me is interesting. spam. On May 05 2011 04:00 Kurumi wrote: Jackal58 Just a post. spammyspamspam On May 05 2011 04:24 Kurumi wrote: Punk,You're back! So my pre-emptive lurker vote is obsolete now! OK then, good for you! thank you for that On May 05 2011 04:50 Kurumi wrote: Remember people mentioning the numbers. Giving away Your biggest weakness might be Your biggest strenght. what? On May 05 2011 04:54 Kurumi wrote: Haha,it was cool first season,then got boring. About LOST, or some shit like that On May 05 2011 05:03 Kurumi wrote: Sorry I didn't call for mass roleclaim,that would not be mysterious and pretty cool Mafia game,eh? Nice joke, funny funny, no content. On May 05 2011 05:44 Kurumi wrote: Hello there Kenpachi,enjoy reading the thread! On May 05 2011 05:54 Kurumi wrote: Hey Jackal58,we missed You! Nice posts. I would be missing your good ones, but I never knew them. Misleading drivel. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2011 00:56 Kurumi wrote: Drop Chaoser discussion as scum. He will be probably shot this night because he is good at Mafia and is staying really pro-town. It is good to see some lurkers waking up! I agree that Chaoser is pro-town, but shutting down analysis and suspicion on any player without suggesting a more suspicious player is not pro-town play. On May 05 2011 01:09 Kurumi wrote: Oh,also I am voting on Irish Punk. Funny how he and chaos have 13 in the end of their nicknames. I would call this spam, but it involves a vote. His reason is "he plays differently from Chaoser" Bad. On May 05 2011 01:16 Kurumi wrote: I just note that his behaviour is different from Irish_Punk's and it looks pro-town,because of trying to make party going As I said, bad reasoning. On May 05 2011 01:22 Kurumi wrote: I just find his activeness into lurking suspicious. Why would You stop contributing when You have nothing to fear of? There is a real world outside of TL. On May 05 2011 01:32 Kurumi wrote: Chaoser,did You really grab my crappy contribution posts from SC2 to Mafia forums? I did not vote because of coincidence,I just saw it. When I stared my third post I knew that it will go wrong and I will be accused of scum. Bringing more chaos into Day 1 than there was wasn't my intention. A scummy post is still scummy even if you acknowledge that it is. On May 05 2011 03:35 Kurumi wrote: 13 Eternal - his refers to Chaoser. It was pointed out though Irish_Punk13 might just started doing 2 something besides writing post here on Mafia forums,so his step back into lurker den isn't 6 actually that obvious,just a normal human activity. 3 My point is,Mafia itself would rather not start the discussion(unless it was questions helping them 2 out,like "How do You deal with Mafia claims" "What usually gives out Your identity" etc) 2 The thing that Chaoser and redtooth posted was just a mini-guide how not to fail horribly at Mafia. 13 Still it could be a smoke bomb. This is so confusing that any content that might be in this post is lost on me. what the hell do the numbers mean? On May 05 2011 04:13 Kurumi wrote: AirbladeOrange: "A dead Townie is a good Townie" I like Your style,as Cave Johnson said! Cute, but misinterpreting the post. On May 05 2011 04:33 Kurumi wrote: Numbers? What numbers? 13 2 6 3 2 2 13? They're just to cast more suspicion on me,like hey! Random numbers MUST be something! No. I just felt like typing them. My type of posting might be connected to English being my second language (the biggest thing is repeating names which I am not comfortable with,where in Polish I need to find 2347234 possibilities to avoid typing the same thing in one,even two sentences.) It was wrong to assume my thought process will apply to everyone and I understand that mistake. Just to put some emphasis: 13 2 6 3 2 2 13 is nothing,but I might get some link if You want to make them mystical,You know. Why would you post meaningless numbers? I'm fine with the explanation of why you post the way you post, but the numbers thing totally derails this post. Again, how are useless numbers beneficial to town? Actual good content. + Show Spoiler + On May 04 2011 23:07 Kurumi wrote: I don't have any problem with this post because I agree with it. Good post.Your attacks on Chaoser and redtooth are not supported by any evidence than nitpicking,yes they are posting without much value,but we are just starting off. On May 05 2011 04:15 Kurumi wrote: Seriously. Never say that dead Town is a good deal,it makes You look weird or even suspicious I'll count this so that this section has more than 1 post in it, because this is a logical statement. On May 05 2011 05:29 Kurumi wrote: Sandroba,You were the person to grab the number trick to make me suspicious. Easy lynch for scum,isn't it? I don't accuse You of being red but.. You're trying to do it the easiest way. Don't keep doing it,please. When You don't think and just go straight You might miss something. On May 05 2011 05:30 Kurumi wrote: Stop doing it,please* Grammar,the horror! I'm calling this content despite my better judgement. He's calling out sandroba for joining a bandwagon based off of faulty evidence (I think). Fair enough. On May 05 2011 06:09 Kurumi wrote: So basically I need to do something,because my fishy posting won't be a good defence for myself while I am gone. Kurumi used Excuse! Kurumi has some Excuses left! Excuse:This will be my first time doing a small analysis,so please don't beat me and lay down Your stones,pickaxes,guns or whatever You just picked up. Thanks. My thoughts on: Chaos13 Points out my weird style of posting,numbers and thinks it is huge scum tell. He is thinking on his own rails,probably not trying to doom us all. Sandroba Hero of our city! Scumhunts every post and every post he has new scum tell,amazing how he does it. Together with Chaos13 is picking on my posting. Irish_Punk13 Got on my rails or at least tries to understand what I try to tell. Points out AirbladeOrange suspicious behavior. Supposedly works for town. AirbladeOrange Wants me dead. Because dead townie is best townie,right? Since I have no contribution value I am worthless. Looks like that is not what he meant actually. Dead townie has no vote privilege! The less votes are available for town,the better for the scum! Suspicious,might be scum. Chaoser Very careful,does not like me hugging him. This is both-side reaction. Though because it is Day1 and his biggest contribution was the hint post I believe I can't decide who he is. KillerSOS Plays for fun,enjoys the game. Agreeds with the Irish_Punk13. ilovejonn Is as careful as Chaoser,has good idea who should be looked at. Kenpachi Has got this. I mean,the backup plan of course. Is onto something obviously. Overall,most of people are trying to hop on me,or AirbladeOrange for his bluff about dead townies. I know this is not SO helpful analysis that You'd hoped for,but look at top of the post. No. Don't pick up those. Please? It is about my excuse. Many of You already used them,some multiple amount of times,but I have no time to pick on it. I believe I will have time to post tomorrow after school (day ends 5:00 KST,right?) It's defensive, but it's content. I don't agree with some of it though. The Kenpachi part is BS, the ABO part is half OMGUS and half logic. Notice how the majority of his posts are spam, misinformation, or anti-town. Can you find the townie under all of this? because I can't. This guy isn't being pro-town, and in my opinion he's our best lynch for day 1. ##Vote: Kurumi + Show Spoiler + Whew, that took longer than I expected... This is the only major analysis from him so far. He makes a large song and dance about how much of what Kurumi says doesn't make sense. The part where you say he's posted good content you also say you don't agree with it all. Could you elaborate? Also I find little difference between many of the posts you say are misleading drivel and those that are "actual content". You've helped lynch Kurumi on grounds of spam and unhelpful/misleading posts. This is also spam, unhelpful and misleading, as are about 5 of your posts around here. There's a FoS on Cthsazsa which you very quickly forget about. On May 05 2011 12:49 VarpuliS wrote: elmizzt, do you often refer to yourself in the third person? Cthsazsa, you've used the "they want us to waste our votes" twice now, I believe. I've got my eye on you. You didn't respond well to jackal's tunneling, and now you disregard the reason elmizzt voted for you. FoS Cthsazsa is on my scum list as well as you. This is an attempt to help you appear town down the line when Cthsazsa flips. If you really were town and felt like hunting scum you'd follow up on this. Following this is a few posts regarding posting in third person. These are just spam, unhelpful and misleading, just like your read on Kurumi. Next is his third FoS, Irish_Punk13: On May 05 2011 21:20 VarpuliS wrote: I'm on the fence between lynching Irish_Punk13 and Kurumi. At this point it seems to me that Irish is only scum if Kurumi is too. People are pushing a lynch on Irish because of the information he'll provide when he flips, but I think that we can get all of that information from a lynch on Kurumi. Situation A: Kurumi flips scum, it is very likely that Irish is as well. We lynch Irish the next day, and we get our information, just a day later. Situation B: Kurumi flips town. Irish is probably town, we move on. The only real scumtell from Irish is noting Kurumi's "great posts" which don't exist. If Kurumi is town, then Irish is just an idiot. I'm posting from my phone, classes start soon and I probably won't have time to check the thread again until the afternoon. This is entirely a push for an information lynch which is a very bad idea. Also, what happened to your case against Irish_Punk13? On May 06 2011 06:01 VarpuliS wrote: Just got back from school, damn this thread is moving fast. Kurumi's posting hasn't improved, It seems. What sort of townie plan is based upon being scummy and nonsensical to get the town talking and then saying "Guys, i'm not scum, it was all part of the plan?" My vote's staying on him. Someone a couple pages back corrected me about my "lynching for information theory." I think it was Aidnai. Thank you, I'll keep that in mind for the future. This looks to me like a townie getting bored. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets himself modkilled or replaced. He retracts the information lynch idea, then follows up with a post stating the bleeding obvious about Rising_Phoenix. You still aren't contributing at all other than tunnelling Kurumi hardcore. Follows this with huge reposting of redtooth's arguments, copy-pasted. The only other real post of note he has is this: On May 06 2011 09:37 VarpuliS wrote: Yo Beneather, you just voted without posting in the thread. Why was this not followed up on? Interestingly enough Cthsasza also brings him up and doesn't do anything about it. On May 06 2011 10:11 Cthsazsa wrote: Beneather's a lurker CONCLUSION VarpuliS is mafia. He does a whole lot of talking and doesn't actually say anything. He very strongly tried to get Kurumi lynched and did nothing else. He is hiding in plain sight. His complete lack of any contribution other than tunneling Kurumi, self-contradictions and complete disappearance once the Kurumi lynch was certain, plus his interaction with other people I believe to be scum make him dodgy. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4353 Posts
He has 17 posts in the day cycle after the day starts. Almost all the first half are one-liners talking about rereading the OP or jokes. The first major post is this: On May 05 2011 04:26 ilovejonn wrote: Just finished reading the thread. I read really slow as I'm often thinking about other stuff when I read. First I'll give my opinion on the Irish13 discussion even though it has dropped. I like what redtooth did do get responses out of people but as he said himself, it became a null tell when almost everyone defended Irish. The post redtooth used to invoke responses from was a post that could have been misinterpreted by people and from seeing people defend Irish, it leads me to believe Irish isn't scum. I've only played 4-5 games on TL mafia, but I'd like to ask what does RSV/RQV stand for? Secondly, my gut feelings tell me that redtooth and chaoser are not scum based on their posts. They are actually quality posts, and even if they are scum, at least what they are posting benefits town for now. It is better to heed the advices in their posts than to bash them for it (for now). I don't want another Kavdragon incident in here again where we lynch someone because they are "too pro-town". Pretty silly. Last but not least, FOS Kurumi and Airblade. Kurumi for his posting behaviour. Why are you posting like that? Maybe English isn't your first language but what about the post with numbers? Are you trying to breadcrumb something? I'm just not understanding your posts. Airblade for saying "At least if we lynch him and he flips town, we won't have to attempt to read those type of posts anymore." That is extremely anti-town. Of course you would want to lynch someone who isn't scum, because then you'd waste a day AND lynched a townie, am I right? This is mostly reposting what redtooth's gambit at the start of the game. The FoS on Airblade is understandable. FoS on Kurumi is reasonable at this early stage as he hasn't talked about his plans or posted any analysis yet. On redtooth: On May 05 2011 07:03 ilovejonn wrote: I think this is true. I don't know why he would ask questions such as what was your mafia experience. Sure it generates discussion but is any of that really relevant to scum hunting? Unless this is another one of his plans to draw out responses.. You agree we should definitely keep suspicion on redtooth but you then go and rubbish it straight away. No stance here at all. This is the explanation of his vote for Kurumi. On May 05 2011 08:30 ilovejonn wrote: Tbh, I would place my vote on Kurumi. Irish comes off to me as a player defending hard for himself. Kurumi's post make no sense to me. Questioned about he says he makes his posts weird just for the hell of it. That's no way to defend yourself if you're playing to win. His last post does become a bit more understandable but still makes no sense. Look at what he thinks of Kenpachi etc. I don't really understand your reason for voting for him. You decide against voting for Irish because he defend himself hard. I'm pretty sure Kurumi did that too. Kurumi has said repeatedly that he was trying to bring out scum, I think he's been quite successful. He made himself a bandwagon and you have jumped on. If he's playing to win, he wins if he can get some scum killed. He doesn't have to survive til the end. You are trying to cover up his plan. In response to you being called out as quiet: On May 05 2011 12:04 ilovejonn wrote: Told you guys I'm an invisible poster. I've made my stance before and have voted for Kurumi. I also explained why I don't think the other candidates are a better choice than Kurumi. Only reason people may think I'm inactive is because there are posts and pages flying through and my posts are probably not long enough. I would agree that some vets around are posting less than usual though. However I'm pretty lenient since it's only Day1. On that note though, I have work 11 - 9 est tmr and will only be posting after 10 pm. You haven't explained anything about any of the other candidates. You disappear after bandwagoning him. Lastly this just before the lynch: On May 06 2011 11:59 ilovejonn wrote: I got off work at 9 pm est. Come home and had to read 10 pages. I already explained I read slow. And by the time of this post it is already 10:56 pm est. I have to eat dinner and stuff too. Please people if you don't have anything to contribute don't post something because I never skip any single post. I read them all, even the spam. Maybe I should learn to scan but them I'm afraid I'll miss something. My vote stays on Kurumi, I'm not going to switch a vote at 10:58 pm est, especially when it doesn't do a damn thing. Off the top of my head though, my suspicions are on the guy who made an excel spreadsheet. I'll post more later. First of all, why not change your vote if you don't think he's scum? Last minute switches have happened before. Also, why is making a spreadsheet which specifically shows the links to everyone suspicious? You need more than that. CONCLUSION ilovejonn is very suspicious but I'm less certain than on VarpuliS. ilovejonn does have a history of being fairly quiet in past games. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4353 Posts
He has 14 posts in the thread after the game begins. I understand this is his first game. His first real post was in response to redtooth's initial call on Irish_Punk13 and resulted in a warning for editing: On May 04 2011 13:12 sinani206 wrote: How so? EDIT: You never know. I don't know what it was pre-edit but the interesting thing to point out is the link, once again, to redtooth. Cthsazsa does the same thing. On May 04 2011 23:19 sinani206 wrote: Read the two posts above you. He did it to see who would jump on it, not to actually accuse Irish. Defence of redtooth. On May 05 2011 01:27 sinani206 wrote: So you vote for people because there's some type of coincidence? Don't make this like SC2 Mafia, please. Quick to jump on the Kurumi train. On May 05 2011 10:31 sinani206 wrote: OK, back from practice. + Show Spoiler [Redtooth] + He is probably the most confusing player right now. First he accuses Irish for no reason, but then takes it back, followed by a policy post. His excuse was that he was trying to see how quickly people defended Irish, but what if that was plan B? Redtooth hasn't posted in a while now, and this has kinda died down, but I just want to remind everyone about what happened earlier. Don't just throw things away as soon as he makes an excuse. + Show Spoiler [Chaoser] + Chaoser was very aggressive at first, of course starting with his accusation of Irish which was followed by additional aggressive posting. But then he calmed down a little. Is it because his Mafia buddies told him to, so as not to be targeted? That is the main question I have here. + Show Spoiler [Jackal58] + Aggressive, but in a neutral way. Nothing he has said swings me one way or the other. He plays very well. You get a star! lol. + Show Spoiler [Irish_Punk13] + May have overreacted to accusation, but that was probably just surprise... I don't blame him. He then blames AirbladeOrange, which isn't too suprising. More on him next. + Show Spoiler [AirbladeOrange] + Very suspicious with not much of a defense. Possible vote right here. + Show Spoiler [Cthsazsa] + Posting, but no real substance. Another possible vote. + Show Spoiler [Forumite] + Very analytical, no aggressiveness. + Show Spoiler [Others] + Nobody else really stands out enough or has enough posts for me to analyze their play. Just keep posting, people! [/spoiler There isn't much here. You say you have more on Irish_Punk13 and never provide. The suspicion of AirbladeOrange and chaoser isn't elaborated on at all. Why does Jackal get a star exactly? For being aggressive? The analysis of redtooth is easily the most substantial, but you never follow up on it. The only person who has been a large voice so far who is missing is of course Kurumi which chaoser calls you out on in the next post. On May 05 2011 10:51 sinani206 wrote: Oh sorry, did I not include Kurumi in my post? He was in the Word document. Here he is: [spoiler=Kurumi] Very analytical, but at the same time, very aggressive. He doesn't give up. This causes me to believe he is a member of the Mafia. I will be voting for him today, Why on earth is this a good reason to vote for him? He's very analytical? That's a huge pro-town factor! Your boss redtooth has also been very aggressive but you don't talk of voting for him. Uh-oh, someone not voting for your bandwagon? On May 05 2011 11:41 sinani206 wrote: Kurumi has just been generally unhelpful and detrimental to the town. Must I say more? Yes, yes you must say more. On May 06 2011 11:07 sinani206 wrote: Do you need a majority or a plurality to win the vote? This question is very important to Mafia. CONCLUSION sinani206 is Mafia UPDATED SUSPICIOUS PERSONS LIST Redtooth MAFIA VarpuliS MAFIA sinani206 MAFIA Beneather MAFIA Cthsasza MAFIA ilovejonn SUSPICIOUS Lyter SUSPICIOUS The interaction between sinani, Varpuli and Redtooth is reminding me of the scum team I was part of last game. One vocal leader and the underlings doing his bidding. Redtooth is focusing on chaoser to help take down one of the vocal opposition. UPDATED ??? LIST I am removing Rising_Phoenix due to his post about getting caught behind and pissed off. He is new and the only game he has played was Newbie Mini Mafia 1 which was 15 pages total length. It will be interesting to see how kevconsim acts as his replacement. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4353 Posts
On May 06 2011 13:57 Cthsazsa wrote: My take on the situation before I go to bed. Actually, I did do something about it. I looked up Beneather's post history in this thread. VarpuliS was wrong. Beneather posted 3 times since the game started. The three posts he made don't have much value to them, though. This is entirely true. He asked Forumite to analyze the posts. Forumite did, but very poorly. After Forumite's analysis, Beneather never commented on it. In fact he never talked about it again. This dude's clearly lurking. As for my one liner, I apologize DropBear. My girlfriend was in the hospital, and I couldn't resist checking up on the thread while I was waiting. So I hastily gave my opinion of him, which was a mistake. I should've waited until now to give my analysis. Ok fair enough, I hope she's ok. DropBear, you also said I didn't do anything about it. Well, neither have you. And on your post against VarpuliS, you do a really good job pointing out his slipups. You've pretty much stated why he is one of my FoS. I certainly did do something about it. I voted for him. He's been in every scum list I have presented so far and I've heard nothing. That is exactly what VarpuliS said, you even quoted it. I find that to be a horrible reason to call someone scum. Not because I'm the target in it, but because you can use that argument on literally anyone. This is true, but I believe your other interactions with the people I find suspicious to be interesting. I have linked all of you together and if I am correct this is what he has done. I may be incorrect. Your extreme overreaction to being accused is mostly what leads me to suspect you and the suspicion is strengthened by aforementioned interactions. Forumite Why he is becoming a FoS in my books. + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 07:04 Forumite wrote: If you are blue, now´s the time to roleclaim. Why are you arguing that day-vigilante is a good move by using probabilities you yourself think are wrong? + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 06:33 Forumite wrote: Is it tunneling if you admit that I´m right, that calling Irish and Kurumi scum would be protown right now? + Show Spoiler + On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote: Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste? Lets make comparisons between those posts by Forumite. Each of these posts are either asking a question or making a statement to continue the argument. They aren't worth any value, don't contribute, and all they do is draw out pointless/stupid arguments that don't benefit the town. In his last post before Kurumi's death, he hops on the bandwagon and switches his vote to Kurumi. My top 3 FoS right now are Beneather, Forumite, and VarspuliS I hadn't looked at Forumite at all. This has actually been interesting. Again, someone who has been at odds with redtooth is getting FoS'd. I disagree when you say his questions are pointless. His questions here have been almost exclusively calling out redtooth. The only thing that interests me from what you've shown is the last-minute switch from redtooth to Kurumi. I will look more closely at him but your analysis makes me feel the opposite way. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4353 Posts
On May 06 2011 13:58 AirbladeOrange wrote: I remember ilovejonn being mostly a lurker in the last mafia game providing no real analysis. Why is he suspicious this game when he was acting the same way last game and was town? He is acting similar but he's still suspicious . I agree that he is acting similarly to last time to a degree and that's why he's on my suss list not my mafia list. See the bottom of my post regarding him.The most obvious difference between this game and last is that he voted for the townie to die in this game and voted for Protactinium last game who was tearing the scum team apart. On May 06 2011 14:13 kitaman27 wrote: @DropBear, nice to see some analysis. In the future, you might wanna consider posting them before the day post so you don't influence night hits, but I guess this provides a chance for further discussion at least. If you felt so strongly, how come you spent so little effort defending him or pushing your preferred target? I post when I can. I didn't get the time to write them up until now and I want to get them out while everything is fresh in the game. The Kurumi flip is evidence so it makes sense to post now. I'm not sure what you mean about posting before the day post? I have posted before the day post. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4353 Posts
Let's recap it. 1: Don't lurk. 2: Don't spam. 3: Never give up. On May 04 2011 16:27 redtooth wrote: Rule 3: Never Give Up This is directed at townies. If you're scum, by all means feel free to give up and get modkilled or bussed. However, as mentioned above, it is likely that townies will lose interest in the game much faster than scum will. There are two provisions to this rule: don't stop participating and don't stop defending. Sometimes your ideas are overlooked or cast aside simply due to the number of strategies or targets being promoted. That doesn’t mean you should stop participating. The town may be tunneling, they may be overlooking something, you may see a scumtell nobody else believes, etc. Each members’ participation is vital to a successful town operation. 4: Kill scum 5: Have fun. Yet we are not capable of following it? I'd say everyone is, in general, following it pretty well so far. On May 07 2011 01:12 redtooth wrote: + Show Spoiler + OK EVERYBODY STOP AND LISTEN Collectively as a group, town is playing the worst mafia I have ever seen. I think there are literally >20 suspects being listed as being scum with only around half that amount actually being actively pursued. People observing the game from the outside are laughing their asses off at the ridiculous level of fingerpointing going on right now and frankly it's embarrassing. There is so much criticism and scrutiny on my help-the-town longpost. Honestly I wouldn't have cared as much if you guys knew all of the advice listed there. But seriously none of you guys have shown that you're capable of following it so far. Do you want to know why I posted it in the first place? Because Chaoser was literally the only person who realized my first vote on Irish was a RVS vote and I immediately lost all hope in having a smart town. It's amazing that some of you are able to move forward with that smug "I-know-you-did-it" attitude after being so blatantly wrong about Kurumi. I think Jackal (very slightly), aidnai (late addition), and I are the only ones on the record arguing against his lynch. Not to mention it's hilarious how so many of you were guaranteeing Chaoser's town alignment and being sheeped by him, only now to turn around and accuse him of being scummy just because. Stop for a second and actually think about what you are doing. If all you have is "there is a possibility _____ is mafia" then stay quiet and pursue evidence indirectly. I don't want to hear your quotewalls and orgies of bad evidence. All it does it make town lose focus on the real suspects. If you do raise an argument against one person, you will be held accountable for the results of either the lynch or the press. Learn how to distinguish a scumtell from a nulltell. Suspicious =/= Scummy. Listen to yourselves talk before you blurt something out. I am connected to Chaoser? My kick-the-hive post was the one that made him fall from Town God status that would have easy-carried him to victory if he was scum. You figured out the entire opposing scumteam? Not a chance, players much better than me and you wouldn't have been able to confidently find even 2 with the level of focus the town has right now. Every post _____ made is scummy? Well everybody looks scummy when you haven't even bothered to objectively consider if he is town at all. Your ideas aren't clever. Your ideas aren't smart. Your ideas aren't correct. From now on, I will show no more lenience. If you are incompetent and provide a terrible accusation backed by flawed reasoning, I will move forward with the assumption that you are scum trying to derail the thread. If your terrible accusation is proven wrong by the night kills or otherwise, you will be held accountable. The people who are not lurking are posting analysis, which is point 1. Now that they are posting analysis, this is bad. You also now are asking people to give up on their analysis, yet never give up was point 3. Plus, isn't hunting scum point 4? Find scum, prosecute scum, lynch scum, beat scum? People have been posting analysis since the lynch of Kurumi. People are already being held accountable for their posts against him. It looks very much to me as though you are discouraging looking at who voted to lynch him. Sure not everyone on it was mafia and knew for sure that he was town but there are absolutely guaranteed at least 2 mafia on the list of those who voted for him, most likely more considering how easily he won the vote. Why is pointing out people you believe to be suspicious bad exactly? Who are these real suspects you speak of? Finally, could you explain to me why suspicious =/= scummy? I don't understand. All this sounds like to me is "if you don't listen to redtooth, you are a retard, mafia or both". You're trying to lead the town away from finding information. I'm going to pretend for a moment that I think you are town and are trying to help, which I don't. Provide me with some town guidance. On May 07 2011 01:32 redtooth wrote: + Show Spoiler + EBWODP: Node please tell us exactly what time (TL Time or EST) that the Night officially ends. We are starting all over again. The previous pages can be used as evidence but all cases must be set forth again with new, strict standards in mind. Abide by the following:
I will not deny that I am taking draconian steps in reorganizing town. However, unless you really think what I am proposing is anti-town, shut up and deal with it. By the way, this applies to my argument against Chaoser as well. If I make an official argument and it's bad or doesn't adhere to these rules, call me out. 1. What is the point of a formalised declaration about confidence in your own accuracy? Isn't being confident in your own accuracy what EVERYONE has been doing so far? What purpose does it serve? Other than create filler in your posts? 2. Why limit the number of posts you look at? If I see something dodgy in more than 4 posts, why should I leave out the extra ones? 3. Why must cosponsoring happen? Why must we drop arguments of absolutely nothing is done to allay suspicions? Remember your point number 3! 4. Why must we completely ignore every argument we've made so far? Do we pull new evidence out of thin air? The arguments made in the thread become useful later. As you have stated so boldly, people are held accountable if their accusations are proven wrong. | ||
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On May 07 2011 01:12 redtooth wrote: OK EVERYBODY STOP AND LISTEN There is so much criticism and scrutiny on my help-the-town longpost. Honestly I wouldn't have cared as much if you guys knew all of the advice listed there. But seriously none of you guys have shown that you're capable of following it so far. Do you want to know why I posted it in the first place? Because Chaoser was literally the only person who realized my first vote on Irish was a RVS vote and I immediately lost all hope in having a smart town. At no point have you ever voted for Irish_Punk13. You voted for Cthsazsa, then switched to chaoser. Could you explain please? | ||
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If there are any detectives out there, check this guy. If you force everybody to post exactly the same way then how the hell are we supposed to pick out scum? Your plan is extremely anti-town. If you want people to improve their posting, why not tell them to be more structured instead of making everyone look the same? If everybody looked the same, we'd get tired of looking at each other. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOI-zEwjdEQ You still haven't explained the absolute backflip between your original longpost and your new town guidelines. You also still haven't explained your comment about voting for Irish when you never did. | ||
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Before his big "reorganisation" people were looking at who voted for Kurumi. Now discussion is being dominated by rules on how we should post. He is trying to shift the focus of town away from scumhunting. If this isn't pushing Mafia objectives I don't know what is. I urge everyone to continue posting analysis and prodding people. Instead of his rules, I offer two: 1. Keep it structured 2. Back it up with evidence. That's all you need! Continue looking at people, keep hunting! JAMINZ You received the most incredible blue slip out of KillerSOS. On May 05 2011 11:11 jaminz wrote: Are you saying you're a blue? That's a really dumb thing to say either way. Your post just now explaining your voting pattern has left out this post just after: On May 05 2011 11:14 jaminz wrote: Yeah, I posted that without thinking about it, dumb move on my part. You voted for him anyway. Could you explain please? | ||
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On May 07 2011 03:22 redtooth wrote: By examining the content and merit of their argument. Honestly, isn't that what we want? We don't want the speechwriters or the rabblerousers drowning out the silently intelligent. A standard ensures two things: - that there is a minimum (not maximum) quality expected of the town - that there are repercussions for advocating misleading lynches Please, think through this carefully. If after considering it you still believe that it is antitown, by all means feel free to vote me. This post redtooth is really confirming things for me. Don't want to drown out the silently intelligent? What does that mean? It very much looks like "don't too closely at anyone who isn't talking". | ||
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I PM'd Ver for help last night regarding redtooth. Part of this was because I couldn't find his history, which Ver provided. I was concerned that redtooth was derailing town. The question Ver posed to me was this: Is what redtooth is doing what only a mafia would do? Is there a possibility he is a misguided townie? If he was mafia, why would he draw so much attention to himself for no reason? My answer is this: on looking back the thread is difficult to read with accusations and massive posts everywhere. It is actually reasonably easy to blend in. I have contributed to this. redtooth claimed to try and drag people back on track and clean things up. Mafia wouldn't want this. redtooth if you are town and were trying to help, I am extremely annoyed with the method you chose to do it. I am however concerned about how quickly 4 votes accumulated on you with little opposition. Ver also suggested I keep to only one target instead of attacking 7 at once, which on second thoughts makes sense. ORGOLOVE His voting pattern for the first day: redtooth switch to chaoser switch to kurumi He is bandwagoning with whoever is most popular to suspect at the time. This pattern is continued with the first few votes on day 2 when he votes for redtooth. Orgolove has 9 posts before the game starts, and 16 in total since it has begun. There is a marked change in activity here. His original accusation on redtooth starts here. It is based around redtooth smurfing in old games and lynch all liars. This isn't really relevant to this game at all. He continues to push on redtooth. All up until his reaction to the introduction of the spreadsheet. On May 06 2011 04:15 orgolove wrote: Great post. We need to look at the people who've been pointing fingers indiscriminately, like 5, 18, and 22. Hmm... I'm trying to see a pattern here between the players the reds want to coordinate against or no. Are the numbers in chronological order of the way they were speaking out against? Let me get this straight. Actively using this resource to point out how mafia can use it to coordinate against town? Then this: nobody picks up on his bandwagon so he abandons it. His vote switches to chaoser on the basis of him making the spreadsheet: On May 06 2011 04:28 orgolove wrote: Oh wow. I didn't even realize it was chaoser himself that made the spreadsheet. Ugh. Hmm.... orgolove's vote ends up on Kurumi. AT NO POINT DOES HE GIVE A REASON FOR THIS. This post was made just before the Kurumi lynch: On May 07 2011 09:30 orgolove wrote: Although I've initially suspected redtooth because of his (kinda dumb) initial post that asked people to share their mafia experiences... The past ~10 pages have convinced me otherwise. He's really putting serious effort into his posts, and he's trying to trick things without being afraid of being revealed. I can't detect any hint of red-ness (pun intended). This is pretty clear that he's giving redtooth town points. On May 07 2011 14:13 orgolove wrote: Yeah. Actually, this was how I felt in the first place... he started the game by attempting to lead town's discussion into "sharing your mafia experiences" And now he's doing shit like this. ugh. You know what. Despite all my misgivings, I'm voting on him. Beep beep, warning! Wtf? On May 08 2011 09:11 orgolove wrote: I really think redtooth either needs to be checked by a dt or be lynched asap. He's been acting plenty scummy enough, and his kills will give us plenty of information both on Amber and others involved in this dispute. His last post is restarting the bandwagon. He had misgivings not very long ago. Orgolove is bandwagoning whoever is most suspicious at the time. His votes redtooth despite misgivings. Why would you vote redtooth if you think he could be townie? Why did he vote for Kurumi? Orgolove is mafia. | ||
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On May 08 2011 14:57 chaoser wrote: DropBear, what are you opinions on Amber, Irish, Beneather, and Cthsazsa? Let's focus on them and leave orgolove for another day. I'll give you that in detail later. I'm leaving in a minute and won't be back for about 8 hours. In short: if you read my posts you'll see massive posts on Beneather and Cthsazsa. Irish and Amber, not sure. What is wrong with what I have said about orgolove? | ||
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On May 08 2011 15:11 chaoser wrote: Because we can deal with orgolove another day. So far we're looking at four people, all of whom people think are scummy and have decent analysis on. Let's not offer too many lynch targets let mafia just ride on random ones and end up with nothing. I'd prefer there were only two lynch targets since then mafia HAS to take a stance one way or another but I'll be fine with 3-4 right now. I saw your massive posts on Beneather and you basically looked at three of his posts and says that he's contributed nothing. Ok, thats fine, but mafia don't do that. Mafia don't not contribute. Mafia try to LOOK like they're contributing but they really aren't. This applys to orgolove as well. He's not TRYING to look like he's contributing, he's just straight up not. Mafia aren't inactive like beneather or Kenpachi is and they're not posting their ass off like redtooth is. They're in that middle region where they look like they're contributing with long posts but ultimately it's all fluff. Mafia aren't INACTIVE, they are LURKING. They know what's going on and they'll jump in from time to time to post something with little substance and be wishy washy on their logic for voting. Alright, lets keep our lynch targets to two or three. You say mafia aren't inactive like Beneather, so lets remove Beneather. By your same logic, Irish_Punk13 cannot be mafia. Lets look at Cthsazsa, Amber[Light] and Orgolove. | ||
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On May 08 2011 15:24 chaoser wrote: Nah Irish is different in that he's under questioning and he's not posting to respond. He says that he's not logging in cause he forgot his password except you can retrieve and change your password. He also has access to the TL Mafia IRC which I've seen him frequent before a lot so he could have asked one of us to ask a mod for him. He's still on my scum list. Either way he'll be modkilled if he doesn't vote and if he does vote/respond to the thread you can be sure he'll be under intense pressure. If you think Irish is mafia, I have a quote from orgolove regarding that as well, one of his first posts to be exact. A defence: On May 04 2011 14:46 orgolove wrote: Is Irish a new player? Could make sense if he's new - he wouldn't want his first game end so quickly. What do you think about what I've said about orgolove? Other than "lets delay it for another time?" | ||
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If Irish comes back, lets look at him then. | ||
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I do not think he is mafia at all. Hopefully I can show you why. He has 4 posts before the game begins and 11 posts since. He has shown low levels of activity as town before, let me refer you to Ver's analysis of Mafia XXX as a point of reference. In this game he posted rarely as a blue but still tried to help. + Show Spoiler [His first major post] + On May 05 2011 06:17 Amber[LighT] wrote: I'm trying to understand your posts because you seem to do a little flip flopping. You seem nervous to challenge anything Chaoser has said because of his "vet" status. You are very suspicious of Chaoser on page 15 [see initial quote], but now all of a sudden Chaoser decided to push against Kurumi just enough for you to resist attacking him [see 2nd quote]. I think this might have been a TL mafia first to create a campaign against a player because of posting habits on other parts of the forum. I'd like to believe that people are capable of wearing many hats. One of those hats is used in mafia, while the others are used elsewhere, when appropriate. From a first look I would say Chaoser wants to come in as a town leader but I don't really agree with the methods he used, though they are a bit convincing. Back to you Airblade... My question is do you think creating a chaoser vs/with kurumi vision is going to get us somewhere? You say either they could be together or they could be against each other, but you don't really elaborate on how to figure this out. Also are we going to take the route of weeding out bad/inactive townies or rely on posting for the first lynch? We need to be really careful about lynching habits. I remember during the very first mafia games we would go for inactives and those were actually the players with blue roles. This is a problem though as it's not really the towns fault, but instead the people who have these blue roles that need to keep active. Lynching a blue is more painful to watch than anything else in mafia. Do we have an updated list of the inactive players? I saw one a few pages back and I'll bump it in my next post.... If you're new please contribute, ask questions, and start being critical! This is all very relevant. AO has made strange posts, contradicting himself regarding chaoser. He defends Kurumi on his posting outside this forum. This all seems to me to be helping things. + Show Spoiler [Regarding lynching inactives] + On May 05 2011 06:41 Amber[LighT] wrote: Depends on the situation. Are we going to be sure that the person we're sparing isn't red anyway? Why were we even going to lynch him? I believe that the inactive player should be disregarded as their punishment will be coming, and we need to use the lynches to lynch mafia, not avoid getting duplicate mod kills with potential mis-lynches. Sacrificing 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 0 mafia is bad. Ignoring 1 inactive player to hit [potentially] 1 mafia is a pretty good deal. These are all arguments which have been trumpeted in the last few pages regarding Beneather and Irish_Punk by many people, including myself. He brought them up on day 1 and got no credit for it. + Show Spoiler [Large post from Amber] + On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote: I'm pretty sure we should save the day vig ability to find the GF or a roleblocker. I was entering the game assuming that the day vig was the role block counter anyway. I don't know if I want to bite on your analysis of Chaoser Redtooth, but I'm a bit weary of someone that comes in swinging on the first day with this much information about a certain player. Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis. For this reason I want to see how well your analysis has been leading us. If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches. If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking. Day 1 lynches are without a doubt the toughest to call, but I am going to vote for Kurumi tonight. I feel like he's more of a solid lynch candidate and his flip will give us more information about Irish punk. Also don't let the numbers dictate who is scum and who is pro town. I would like to remind the younger players that some of us have jobs and sleep at normal times. I play TL mafia from 5:30 - 11:30 my time and I have to catch up from a lot of pages of content/spam, even when I can read while at work. My posting habits have not changed during this game. If you didn't notice my posts, you have easy access to them via my profile. My analysis compounds over the days and I will be focusing on certain players once more information is obtained. This is the only post I don't understand. He seems to be advocating a lynch for information. Do however note how he has responded to a post about blues. On May 08 2011 00:21 Amber[LighT] wrote: I didn't realize quoting old games was any less important than quoting peoples posts in non-mafia threads on TL. This is in fact an extremely relevant point. One of the initial arguments against Kurumi was the difference between how he posted in the sc2 forum and here. Old Mafia game history is conversely extremely relevant. On May 06 2011 07:42 Amber[LighT] wrote: ##Vote: Kurumi This vote immediately follows. + Show Spoiler [Defence of himself] + On May 08 2011 00:27 Amber[LighT] wrote: Just putting these here before Chaoser goes on his anti-Amber campaign. I would like to stress that Chaoser is tunneling me. And after Redtooth posted in response to this post I gave a little clarification about my justification for lynching Kurumi. I was not just voting for kurumi because everybody else was doing it. This is probably going to be the last time I correct peoples ignorance. Please stop tunneling Chaoser. I'm not trying to point my FoS onto you, yet. I'd like to point out that before this post, chaoser mentions Amber on several occasions as someone who he suspects before Amber defends himself against tunneling. Sandroba's argument on the previous page about Amber defending himself pre-emptively due to his own guilt is completely incorrect. Note that chaoser has pushed this list of vets who are posting rarely and who vote for Kurumi. Orgolove and GGQ are on this list too, why not them? All the attributes that chaoser claims are scummy are present in orgolove and Chaoser not only ignores them, he actively tries to get others to ignore them too. Chaoser IS tunneling Amber. Amber has used this trumpeting of his own skill level as an attempt to not get lynched. If defending yourself was scummy, then everyone would be mafia. Posts of the dead are pointed out here. This is contribution. + Show Spoiler [Last major post] + On May 08 2011 01:03 Amber[LighT] wrote: His analysis mirrors mine in most cases. I would trust him as a town leader more than Chaoser, and I'll stand by that. Though I will say I don't agree with his posting plan. The idea is genuinely good with intention, but it will choke the town over the next few days. I can't stand by that plan. We share the same frustrations too. As I'm reading over his most recent posts he's also pretty upset with Chaoser and if I'm not reading into his posts too seriously he is suspecting him more than me. I don't know if Chaoser is just trolling vets or is just trying to get us more riled up but it's causing more and more people to consider him as a lynch target. I think this post has a lot of weight to it: Though it makes sense I think strategically his posts would have been irrelevent unless mafia chose to take out Redtooth. It would have made him look incredibly scummy. Think about it from another perspective. If you were mafia and you saw Redtooth accuse Chaoser and chaoser was red, would you still gun down Redtooth to "confirm" him using the WIFOM argument? I think posts at night are more catch 22 than anything else [damned if you do; damned if you don't]. This is all very relevant. Amber is contributing just as much as redtooth, he's just not been as prominent in the thread nor has he tried to force everyone to act the same way. CONCLUSION Is Amber attempting to contribute? Yes. Pushing mafia objectives? No. Being tunneled by chaoser? Yes. I am getting a massive blue read out of Amber. He is definitely contributing but isn't trying to stand out. Don't vote to lynch Amber[Light]. Vote orgolove instead for the reasons I have already given. Orgolove is choice number 1. Sandroba is choice number 2. After his presence on the voting list for Kurumi, he joins the wagon I started on redtooth. Sandroba has now joined the wagon on Amber out of the three people up for debate. If noone is willing to vote orgolove I will switch to sandroba. Chaoser is choice number 3. | ||
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On May 09 2011 00:53 Node wrote: In the future, please refrain from quoting / paraphrasing coaches, or directly bringing what they tell you into the thread. We don't want arguments centered around "This is what Awesome Coach told me to do, so it must be correct!" Ok sorry | ||
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On May 09 2011 01:06 sandroba wrote: @Dropbear Oh my god. What Amber is doing is pretending to be contributing. Go read his posts and you will see there's no pointing to scum at all in any of them. About the tunnelling of chaoser: Many of the previous mentions were not a FoS and were present along with several other members who were also inactive. The first time chaoser FoSed Amber was in the post I quoted in my analysis. This is NOT tunneling. He hasn't pointed at scum. So what? This is precisely what he does done in the past in a blue role. Why then, has chaoser selected Amber and not orgolove or GGQ? | ||
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On May 09 2011 01:15 sandroba wrote: @DropBear Do you really think that if he was blue he would have posted what a great scumhunter he was on past games? If you are blue, you try to help but hide. Now that he has been called out, he is defending himself. He doesn't want to get lynched. An argument that he is scum because he talks himself up is completely irrelevant. I have switched my vote to you. You have been present on every major bandwagon so far. | ||
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It's coming down to Amber vs Cthsazsa. I am backing Amber to the hilt. I voted Cthsazsa day 1 and I will do so again. | ||
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On May 09 2011 11:16 chaoser wrote: Ok, so I think I've gathered enough data. I am a Detective. I'm pretty sure mafia aren't going to let me live tonight. I checked Amber last night and he came up red. That's why I've been tunneling so hard idiots... VOTE AMBER Ok, this changes things. What role did he come back as? There are millers as well, but I'm much more inclined to vote with you now. | ||
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On May 09 2011 11:21 chaoser wrote: He came back as mafia? wtf lol what do you mean what role? Mafia Goon? Mafia Roleblocker? It comes back with a specific role according to the OP | ||
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If Amber is red, chaoser is cleared, sandroba is cleared, redtooth probably is as well, maybe even Cthasza. | ||
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On May 09 2011 11:40 Cthsazsa wrote: Scum are going to be switching their votes to Amber as well since he's been caught. We should keep those who didn't vote for him/gave poor reasons to believe he was town in mind. And as I recall someone claimed to be confident that he was blue Yeah it was me lol. I made a massive post about how town I thought he was. | ||
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On May 09 2011 11:47 sandroba wrote: @DropBear I resent you for calling me scum =P Yeah well if Amber does flip red, sorry about that haha. | ||
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Medic on chaoser. I now feel that sandroba is cleared too, possibly Cthazsa as well. They are also good medic choices. We have killed 2 mafia but 4 blues are dead too so we need to keep chaoser alive. | ||
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As far as I can tell only GGQ claimed that he was roleblocked last night. | ||
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On May 09 2011 17:53 Forumite wrote: Mafia killpower isn´t linked to their roles, but their number, so I´d say no, but waiting for host to answer. I ask this because last game I was mafia and I asked BrownBear if we could direct hits at our own players. He told me that we could, but if we roleblocked one of our own members we would lose a KP because a mafia nightkill was considered a night action. If mafia can't roleblock their own players, then it means either that GGQ is lying about his roleblock claim, is mafia and they used it on someone they killed (likely KillerSOS) or that he's telling the truth and he's town. We used the roleblocking last game as a large part of our strategy to discredit people, but slightly differently as we had 2 roleblockers. If GGQ is scum it is possible he faked his roleblock claim. | ||
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On May 09 2011 18:28 Node wrote: If a roleblocker were to use their ability on a mafia member, the mafia would "lose" that member for that night. If that would be the tipping point for KP, the mafia would lose a KP that night. They can just as easily not use the roleblocker's ability at all, though. I didn't even think of them not using it So the situation is, either GGQ is Mafia and lied about his roleblock, or he is clean and was telling the truth. I'm back to where I was before :/ | ||
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This is getting me anywhere so I'm going to drop it. | ||
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On May 09 2011 18:52 Forumite wrote: Again, no point. Roleblocking themselves and withholding the roleblock is the same thing. Roleblockers don´t have to use their ability every night. Yeah good point, ok I'll drop this. | ||
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After GGQ's flip we are down to the godfather and 2 goons. More roleblock claims are outright lies. On May 10 2011 12:44 ilovejonn wrote: Props to chaoser for his scum-hunting abilities, I'm really amazed at his confidence for going after Amber and GGQ. I'd have to agree we either had a stupid/afk medic, or this is a no medic setup. Looking at the list of players however, we had 2 day vig modkills, 1 night vig killed by the mafia, and 1 vig that hasn't claimed. With that many KP I'm leaning towards the probability that there aren't any medics. The vigi should claim early as that would prevent mafia from fake claiming that shot later on. To people suspecting me, I'd like to remind you guys of chaoser's awesome scum-hunting abilities. Even though he fake claimed DT, hitting Amber and GGQ with analysis alone is pretty damn pro. I know for sure I'm townie and that chaoser's read on me is correct. I might have been on the wrong lynches due to circumstances, but remember, being wrong doesn't mean being scum. I'll make sure to try my best to help us win, but for now I am going to bed. You should definitely be on the agenda today. Chaoser may have been right the first time. I've been worried about you since early in the game. Sinani and EternalMisfit are the others. We never got the analysis from chaoser on EternalMisfit and he chose not to on ilovejonn. I suggest lynch Sinani today and we pressure the other two. | ||
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I know we are focusing on the three others, but I'd like to bring an extra one to the table. There has been some interaction between him and EternalMisfit. Voting pattern: Day 1 votes redtooth Day 2 votes Beneather, then the last person to switch to Amber[Light]. He has played one previous mafia game in which he was a mafia goon, Surprisingly normal mini-mafia 1. First up, an early defence of Irish_Punk13. Note that it is a subtle defence, not an outright one. On May 04 2011 14:48 elmizzt wrote: Irish seems like he's claiming to be a pretty experienced player, what with him linking to a Mafia group outside TL that he is a member of. Attack on Kurumi and FoS on redtooth Next are three pushes on Cthasza. At this point lots of people, including Chaoser, were ignoring the Jackal/Cthazsa exchange. Here is the explanation for his vote on redtooth. It comes with an interesting exchange with kitaman27. On May 06 2011 04:40 elmizzt wrote: More on redtoothI haven't forgotten about redtooth's dodge of the proof that he was lying either. I'm putting in my vote for him unless he posts an explanation. Here are some of his explanation for voting for Beneather: On May 08 2011 11:54 elmizzt wrote: Make up your mind. Am I doing a "to good job blending in" or sticking out? This exchange is very odd. I'd like the opinions of others on it. How could he think that posting less is sticking out, yet he is pushing Beneather for not posting much? No opinion of the lurking of Amber is given. In surprisingly normal mini, he pushed another inactive player as a lynch target. Also note that many of his posts are one-liners, another trait he displayed in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia. CONCLUSION elmizzt defended Irish_Punk13 covertly at the beginning of the game. elmizzt has directly attacked Kurumi and Beneather who have flipped town. He also heavily went after Cthsazsa who at this point is almost definitely town. He waited until the last possible moment to switch to Amber. His posting is very similar to how he was Mafia in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia 1. He is contributing very little, mostly one-liners. He has a very strange explanation for his lack of activity. I think he is worth looking at as well. EternalMisfit is next on my analysis list. | ||
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It's like he didn't even know he existed. | ||
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First EM's voting pattern: Day 1 he voted Kurumi Day 2 he originally voted for sandroba, then switched to Amber[Light] after chaoser's claim. Analysis of EM has already been provided by ilovejonn. Note that ilovejonn is also on the table today. This makes me feel that they can't both be mafia. Analysis of ilovejonn on Night 1 by me is here. Please note the contradictions between his accusation of EternalMisfit and his own behaviour. He accuses EM of being scummy for FoSing Airblade yet he does it himself (see my analysis). Most of these accusations of EM are rubbish if you go over them again. CONCLUSION I think EM is town. I think ilovejonn is scum, as is elmizzt. | ||
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I'm voting ilovejonn. Happy to vote sinani206 as well, then elmizzt. I'm not voting for EM unless something like a DT check comes up. | ||
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"an interesting exchange with kitaman27" is supposed to be after "here is some explanation of voting for voting Beneather". "There has been some interaction between him and EternalMisfit" should have gone in the following post regarding ilovejonn. I was writing them up at the same time. Ok I went over it again. I did misinterpret the first line. The posting of the Ver bit was a mistake. I'm not mafia sandroba. I'm a vanilla townie. | ||
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PEOPLE I'VE ACCUSED redtooth sinani206 Irish_Punk13 varpulis ilovejonn cthazsa beneather lyter jaminz orgolove chaoser sandroba GGQ elmizzt DEFENDED AirbladeOrange sandroba KillerSOS Irish_Punk13 Amber[Light] GGQ EternalMisfit Oh dear lol. That's a lot of people. Alright I'm going to shut up now. | ||
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On May 10 2011 17:28 sandroba wrote: If anyone is not convinced needs further analysis to vote for EM I will provide, but if you just look carefully at the analysis EM posted of me you can see how much bullshit it contains. I.E. I said "Amber[Light] is overly defensive" and said "Amber[Light] does not really defend anyone" and he claims this is contradictory. How is this contradictory? In the context it was said you can clearly see I refering: In the first sentence Overly defensive = himself In the second = others That's only an example of a clearly misleading analysis, you can find many in it. Can you link me to his analysis of you please? | ||
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I'm going to stick with the vote on ilovejonn. I don't even have confidence in myself anymore, but I've been looking at him since day 1. I'm not going to post again for a bit. The last thing I will say is that if EternalMisfit does flip red and everyone tries to kill me next, when I flip green, look at kitaman27 (yay I think I've accused everyone by now) and elmizzt is clear. If EM flips green, kill ilovejonn and redtooth. There is still a godfather out there and they will almost definitely be an experienced player. Rally around Sandroba. He is wrong about me and he may be about EM as well, I'm not sure, but he is definitely town. So is Cthazsa. | ||
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On May 10 2011 17:58 orgolove wrote: The biggest thing that went against you, in my view, is that you changed your vote 5 times (I actually missed one) It's not like you're unusually active compared to others too - and you really waited till the very last minute, only switching your vote to amber after chaoser fake claimed. In fact, just 10 minutes before chaoser's claim, you said you're backing Amber to the hilt.... I don't buy your claim. I know. I even before that made a massive post explaining how I thought he was a blue. This backing to the hilt post was afterwards. I understand if you don't believe me but it's true. Pretty sure I voted redtooth, then sandroba, then Cthazsa, then Amber. Which is 3 vote switches. Sandroba and Cthazsa were both for the same reason, in defence of Amber who I thought was blue. | ||
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On May 10 2011 18:04 orgolove wrote: If you really are a green, it does us no good to fall silent. Explain your thought process. Give us a reason to not vote for you. Come on man. Ok. These links show a few things, I hope I formatted them right. You are right I forgot about the switch to you. I first suspected redtooth day 1. Second post about suspecting him. First post on ilovejonn. I decided there was a link between ilovejonn and redtooth here. Comment by kita about scum reacting to my night analysis Post by redtooth shortly after kita's comment. My first questioning of redtooth's big post on reorganisation followed by this post and this post make me vote redtooth. The switch to orgolove is explained here. Chaoser then starts going after Amber. Reason for not voting for Amber is here Reason of vote switch to sandroba is here Switch to Cthsazsa is here. I tied chaoser, sandroba and Cthsazsa together as mafia. They are tied together as town. The final switch was to Amber after Chaoser's roleclaim. I fucked up the posting when I was doing the analysis on elmizzt and the post on ilovejonn v EM. I'm not sure on elmizzt anymore. | ||
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On May 10 2011 18:40 Kenpachi wrote: I believe i am the Vigilante? Yay Kenpachi! ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/R1CH/Happy2.gif) | ||
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On May 10 2011 22:14 sandroba wrote: Another question to you about dropbear analysis on elmizzt: DropBear said he believed you to be town. In his analysis he says the connection between elmizzt and you make elmizzt suspicious. There are several other incosistencies on DB analysis. Do you think he was being intencionally misleading? What are your main suspects right now? I made a mistake including that in the elmizzt analysis. It was supposed to be in the following post on ilovejonn v EM, which immediately follows my elmizzt analysis. I was writing them up at the same time, I said it before. | ||
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On May 11 2011 00:16 Forumite wrote: Fairly certain of Chaos13, not so much for EM and DB, they could be either scum or town. _________ Chaos13 - One of the earlier to go for Amber[Light]. Slow poster with sometimes weak arguments, but probably Town. EternalMisfit - Consistently defending Amber[Light], attacking Cthsazsa, Sandroba, Chaoser and Redtooth. Very focused during day2. Stopped the attack once Amber[Light] flipped. DropBear - Hard to read, but has one strong scumtell. The slip is that there could of course be 2 roleblockers, but DropBear knows there is only one, who just died. Dude, there's only 6 mafia. There isn't going to be 2 roleblockers. Look back at old games of similar size: xxxvi, xxxv, pokemafia, all only 1 roleblocker. | ||
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On May 07 2011 03:30 aidnai wrote: FoS? Vote? might we expect a fullblown analysis with an accusation soon? I must say I look forward to it if you do it. Amber is certainly a scummy player and I plan to push his lynch today, but I can't tell if you're serious about him from this post. Wow something I just found here actually, apparently Amber questioned me about the play by play on Lyter? I missed it the first time. | ||
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On May 10 2011 23:05 sandroba wrote: Ok I looked at ilovejonn's posts and the only one that has major content is his acusation on EternalMisfit which I recommend everyone to read: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=42#825 Which is pretty solid. But also kind of contradictory with his option of not voting Amber, given the fact that amber was "appearing to be contruibuting" the same way EM was in his analysis. The main reason I believe ilovejonn to be town is because I believe EM to be scum. And should I and/or EM flip town, I hope you will lynch him. Look at his voting pattern as well. | ||
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On May 11 2011 00:55 Forumite wrote: You think Sandroba is Scum? No not at all, I think ilovejonn is scum, perhaps should have worded that properly. Sandroba is absolutely town. The original 3 chaoser named were ilovejonn, sinani206 and eternalmisfit. The biggest reason I'm up for debate was my big defence of EM and the introduction of elmizzt, which was foolish as it's diverted attention away from these three of them. At this point I have tied myself to EM so closely that if he flips red I'm absolutely done for next lynch. I have suspected ilovejonn and sinani206 since day1 and I'm most confident about EM being town of the three. I urge people to stick to these three candidates. | ||
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GGQ, among his short number of posts, directly accuses Redtooth and casts doubt on myself, kitaman27 and orgolove. On May 06 2011 04:04 GGQ wrote: I'm keeping my vote on Kurumi for now, but I'd also support a lynch on redtooth. He is defending Kurumi and Irish, the two most likely to get lynched today. This strikes me as scum play because a townie would be trying to get scum lynched, not trying to defend both people who are up for lynching. It's likely that all three are mafia, or perhaps that redtooth is mafia and the other two are town so he'll get town cred when either of them flips. Add in that he also is trying to discredit one of the stronger voices in this game with a whole bunch of WIFOM, and I see a pretty strong case against him. First calling out of redtooth. On May 06 2011 04:08 GGQ wrote: This post rings some bells in my head. There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote. Doing a PbP in this instance feels like an attempt to gain townie cred for nothing. Here he casts doubt on me. On May 07 2011 14:06 GGQ wrote: It's late and I don't have time to catch up on the thread right now, but I was roleblocked last night. My FoS is still on redtooth for now, I'm not sure if his big rules thing makes him seem more innocent or not, I'll have to go over it more carefully tomorrow evening. Still on redtooth. On May 08 2011 10:10 GGQ wrote: Dont lynch for information, it just leads to endless wifom. If we lynch redtooth it's because we think he's scum and that's all. His day 1 posts gave me a scum read, his actions since then haven't saved him in my eyes, but haven't made him more guilty either. I'm willing to give him some more time. He posts a lot, anyways, so if he's mafia he'll give himself up. Cthazsa seems to be a lot quieter now than he was on the first day, and I can't explain why. He responded with lots of posts to jackal's pressure, but now he's gone afk because of the pressure today? Maybe just because he's now a viable lynch target? His actions seems scummy enough, but I never got that vibe from his posts. I'd like to see an analysis by someone I trust more than redtooth showing him as scum. Amber seems the scummiest to me from his posts so far, but there just aren't that many of them. Amber, if you were a dayvig and had to use your power to avoid a lynch, who would you shoot? Not sure what he's saying about redtooth here? He does attack orgolove though. On May 08 2011 11:38 GGQ wrote: And all you're doing is vaguely questioning people. Post something solid. Is this casting doubt on kita? It's kind of vague. I'd like to think this is evidence to clear me, but it isn't really solid. I'd also like to think it clears kita, redtooth and orgolove as well but I'm not so sure. | ||
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On May 11 2011 01:24 Forumite wrote: My bad. If EternalMisfit is building a case against sinani206, and both are on the list, what does that make those two? Both scum or one of each? sinani is possible scum as well. I am at this point tied to EM. I seriously hope I'm right about you man. I have accused ilovejonn and sinani. EM has accused sinani ilovejonn accused EM Who has sinani accused? kevconsim/Impervious. That's it. There's this too. On May 09 2011 11:49 sinani206 wrote: Wait what? A six person swing vote? Aren't there six mafia? Is it really feasible for the entire mafia team to be on the Cthazsa train? I'm not so sure. Surely they'd have one person off it just in case it went bad? Sinani was on kevconsim/Impervious instead. At the moment everyone is letting us fight it out regarding ilovejonn and sandroba v me and EM. This whole argument has had very little input from others so far.... only Mig and kevconsim/Impervious have weighed in at all. Sinani himself has gone quiet. Maybe I should switch to sinani206 and see who comes out to defend him... oh fuck I don't know. | ||
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On May 11 2011 01:32 Forumite wrote: @DropBear GGQ doesn´t clear either DropBear, Kitaman or orgolove, he disagrees with them all, but no strong FoS against any of them, at least I didn´t find any. . Yeah I know I said in the post is isn't solid enough. The one closest to an FoS is on me. On May 06 2011 04:08 GGQ wrote: This post rings some bells in my head. There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote. Doing a PbP in this instance feels like an attempt to gain townie cred for nothing. | ||
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On May 11 2011 01:51 kitaman27 wrote: One thing I have to say is what is with these random vanilla town role claims? DropBear, someone looks at you the wrong way and you spill the beans? What's up with that? Well because I fucked up my analysis. I'm claiming to try and clear myself. On May 10 2011 16:32 DropBear wrote: I seem to have misplaced some bits in my analysis. "an interesting exchange with kitaman27" is supposed to be after "here is some explanation of voting for voting Beneather". "There has been some interaction between him and EternalMisfit" should have gone in the following post regarding ilovejonn. I was writing them up at the same time. Ok I went over it again. I did misinterpret the first line. The posting of the Ver bit was a mistake. I'm not mafia sandroba. I'm a vanilla townie. This was followed by orgolove's big data post pointing me as the number one target. Then I get a big accusation from sandroba, who is a confirmed townie. On May 10 2011 17:20 sandroba wrote: Man I can't believe this. DropBear is mafia. He says elmizzt is suspicious for interacting with EM and then says EM is town. LOL way to go DropBear. I'm saying this right now EM is mafia and so is DropBear. I'm also willing to bet that EM is Mafia goon and asked for a vig shot so we would not kill GGQ, the mafia RoleBlocker. Plus a push from orgolove. On May 10 2011 17:44 orgolove wrote: We can only lynch one at a time. Our targets converge on DropBear. Lets take care of the immediate threat first. I would imagine EM is claiming for the same reason, an accusation from sandroba who is pretty much confirmed town. | ||
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On May 11 2011 02:08 sandroba wrote: DropBear, did you read the analysis ilovejonn's made on EM? I posted a link to it some posts ago. I most certainly have. | ||
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On May 11 2011 02:29 Forumite wrote: So you are saying that it´s like this? EternalMisfit Ilovejonn Elmizzt Drop elmizzt. The first bit of my analysis of him was a complete misread lol. Leave him for later, if at all. I believe: EternalMisfit is town and one of either ilovejonn or sinani is red. It's feasible for both of them to be. I'll vote for either. | ||
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On May 11 2011 02:29 sandroba wrote: I can see how ilovejonn can be scum and his analysis of EM and explanation for not voting for Amber are quite contradictory indeed. The thing is I'm having a hard time actually seeing a scenario where Eternal is not scum. sinani206 is either from another planet or scum. Either way he is useless. If he is not mafia, mafia is certanly not getting rid of him for us. We are going to have to lynch him sooner or later, but today is a very important day, since if we kill mafia their kp gets reduced. @Imprevious I've read all kita's posts and I'm not in the slightest confident in calling him scum. The other thing to take into account is experience. sinani206 is playing his first game. EM is a relative newbie. ilovejonn has been around for a while. | ||
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On May 11 2011 02:44 AirbladeOrange wrote: Can someone tell me why Cthsazsa is cleared now? When I checked out all of his posts the other day there was a clear sense that he was wishy washy and never wanted to make a stand against anyone. But after Amber flipped red something changed but I don't recall it being a one or the other is red situation. Also I pushed him pretty hard and stuck with it and want to make sure we have enough to clear him or have bigger threats. I'm not a big fan of the statistical analysis and using numerical values to determine one's scumminess. Maybe it's just because I hate math or maybe because I'm high on that list but certain things just don't seem to be a good indicator of how likely someone is to be mafia. Voting for town can just mean someone had a bad read, it happens to everyone. Changing a vote isn't scummy as long as the player provides a convincing reason for doing so. When they voted can just mean they wanted to see any developments that could happen before the day ends or they had other IRL things to do. I'm not sure where I stand on EternalMisfit. I think Sandroba is town and has gained a lot of town cred after the night. As chaoser said, Cthazsa was cleared as he was the alternative candidate to Amber. Mafia was resisting the lynch of amber hard and were voting for him instead. You're not sure about EternalMisift, how do you feel about ilovejonn and sinani206? | ||
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On May 11 2011 03:17 ilovejonn wrote: Hold up everyone. You guys still think I am scum just because of a) I did not vote switch to Amber, and b) I was on the bad end of the lynches? Did I not already say I was going to be out the whole day on Mother's day? I cannot believe you guys would have missed that. Even if chaoser claimed his DT earlier in the day I would not have seen his claim, and his claim was actually near the end of the day cycle! I'd also like to hear what the numbers meant on orgolove's stat thing. 0.5 in b, 3 in g, 5 in j. I read somewhere people got - points just because they vote switched to Amber? Did you not consider the circumstance where I could not have gotten internet access that day because I was out? And just because people vote switched to Amber does NOT mean they are town, it could have simply been a bussing of a team mate. Are you for real Forumite? Last time I checked you were on Kurumi's lynch, as well as Cthsazsa's lynch. Here, I'll list people that have gotten the wrong lynch for both days that are still alive: Forumite, sinani. So, I was out the whole day, what is your excuse Forumite? It's extremely suspicious to me that you would use that against me when you yourself have done the same. Also, to accuse me of highly likely being scum/GF because I'm a veteran is ridiculous. I have been town aligned my WHOLE career on TL mafia and I am going to say that it is the same for this game. If you expect me to be godlike like chaoser, then sorry, I am trying to improve, but that does not mean it does not allow room for me to be wrong does it? Today's vote I am going with EM. I'm demoralized for being wrong so many times already and the only thing that is keeping me going is that chaoser was suspicious of EM as well as my own analysis of EM. You do realise that Forumite voted sinani and not you? The argument against you still stands, as it does about sinani and I guess me as well. A last second change to Amber indeed does not imply town, but people who were on Cthazsa in the first place implies scum. Orgolove's data thing was a bit over the top with assigning random points for various acts but does do a good job of pointing out the voting patterns and should still be considered. I'd like to hear some more opinions on current issues. It's been the same few people talking. It's 230am and I'm going to bed | ||
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Specifying godfather over simply scum is a little bit of a leap for me but it's certainly still feasible, newer players like annul have been chosen as godfathers before. There are 3 mafia remaining of course, so how do you feel about EM and sinani206? | ||
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Provide an opinion please! | ||
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On May 11 2011 20:08 sandroba wrote: @kitaman27 jaiminz cast his vote on Amber when the votes were 7-6 in favor of Cthsazsa, tieing the votes. Consider that before saying he is mafia. This is true, but you've got to be careful about clearing people solely on the basis of voting for Amber. If you were scum, would you have the entire team on exactly the same vote? | ||
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This might seem like a strange idea, but we may still have a day vig left. 5 blues have died and Kenpachi has claimed, unopposed, that he was the night vig who shot GGQ. That makes 3 night vigs, 2 day vigs and a dt in aidnai. Chaoser died night 2 despite being a) a veteran, b) the most obvious medic target of all time and c) the mafia having only 2 kp with which to kill him. There probably aren't any medics. I'm willing to bet there are either 1 or 2 blues left. The possibilities are day vig, night vig, dt, veteran. I am putting a call out. If by any chance there is a day vigilante left, I strongly urge you to shoot one of EM and ilovejonn today and soon. I nominate ilovejonn and then the lynch can be between sinani206 and EM. How does this sound to people? If there aren't any day vigs alive still, well we keep going as is | ||
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On May 12 2011 00:35 DropBear wrote: I'm a little worried that this could sidetrack things but here goes. At this point in time I feel it almost impossible for ilovejonn and EM to be both mafia. With so few mafia remaining, if they were both scum ilovejonn would not tunnel EM so hard. This might seem like a strange idea, but we may still have a day vig left. 5 blues have died and Kenpachi has claimed, unopposed, that he was the night vig who shot GGQ. That makes 3 night vigs, 2 day vigs and a dt in aidnai. Chaoser died night 2 despite being a) a veteran, b) the most obvious medic target of all time and c) the mafia having only 2 kp with which to kill him. There probably aren't any medics. I'm willing to bet there are either 1 or 2 blues left. The possibilities are day vig, night vig, dt, veteran. I am putting a call out. If by any chance there is a day vigilante left, I strongly urge you to shoot one of EM and ilovejonn today and soon. I nominate ilovejonn and then the lynch can be between sinani206 and EM. How does this sound to people? If there aren't any day vigs alive still, well we keep going as is Actually, it might make even more sense to do it the other way around. Shooting EM would confirm ilovejonn either way and we get a mafia today regardless. | ||
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On May 12 2011 00:45 sandroba wrote: @DropBear There is VERY LITTLE chance that both jonn and EM are mafia. Also there's VERY LITTLE chance town has more vigs. Also there even a SMALLER chance that we have a day vig left. I missed the purpose of your post completely. It was just putting it out there. There may only be a small chance but while there's still a possibility it should be discussed imo. The lynch targets still stay the same. Should any day vigs remain it would be a way of clearing things up slightly faster and ensuring the mafia KP gets reduced for the night. | ||
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On May 12 2011 11:18 GMarshal wrote: ##Pardon: Node Not today. I am the mafia pardoner, and I cannot be lynched! LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL Ok I'm back. I did this for Amber and failed horribly but here we go again lol. ilovejonn is not going to get lynched today. It is down to EM and sinani. I have been suspicious of sinani206 since early in the game. As was chaoser So is EternalMisft. I am backing EternalMisfit to the hilt. I will save youuu! | ||
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Is everyone ok with clearing me now? | ||
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On May 12 2011 12:07 Forumite wrote: I´ve no idea about ilj, but Jaminz's save of sinani make them both almost 100% confirmed scum. Ehhhh I'm not 100% convinced on jaminz. Sinani though is another story. That guy is so dead tomorrow. I am in fact starting to wonder about ilovejonn being maybe town. Going to post all my thoughts just before daybreak. | ||
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On May 12 2011 12:37 orgolove wrote: Terrible town. I did my best to convince you, and yet you blew it. Really, where? Your big data post had sinani206 at 1.5 points. You admit yourself it would not have got GGQ. On May 10 2011 17:42 orgolove wrote: Well, we can agree that Dropbear is a major target. Shall we vote for them, and ask the DTs to check EM, ilovejonn, or AirBladeOrange? Pretty much every single post you've made since then was trying to get me lynched. You actively encourage going after EM as well. You never defended him for a second. I am so going after you once sinani206 is dead. | ||
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On May 12 2011 12:45 orgolove wrote: Hint: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=74#1473 You've said you tried your best to convince us. On May 12 2011 12:37 orgolove wrote: Terrible town. I did my best to convince you, and yet you blew it. Please show me where you actively defended EM at any stage on day 3, or pushed for ilovejonn. In fact, please show me where you actively hunted anyone who's name wasn't DropBear. Convince us of what exactly? That EM was town? Because you sure as hell didn't do that. That sinani206 was mafia? Because you sure as hell didn't do that. | ||
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Experienced player? Check Drastic change in activity pregame vs postgame? Check Huge post about points or something. Complete misdirection? Check Is obviously active around lynch time but didn't take a stand on sinani206 v Eternalmisfit at all? Then claims he did his best to convince us? Check | ||
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On May 12 2011 13:01 kitaman27 wrote: meh I've got a stronger feeling about jaminz. Probably bigger fish to fry at the moment. I think we can agree that sinani206 dies first though. I'm not convinced on jaminz, going to leave my big analysis until just before daybreak in case I get whacked. | ||
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My analysis of orgolove Day 2 Forumite's analysis of orgolove Day 3 Ok now I'll wait til before daybreak lol. I'd like to echo kita's call, if there are by any small chance any night vigs remaining, you shoot sinani206. | ||
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On May 12 2011 12:47 orgolove wrote: Sure. My list of suspects remains the same.
Your list is the same as it was after the Day 2 vote. Why haven't you changed it based on today's vote? There is an absolute tonne of new info coming from EM's lynch. | ||
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On May 12 2011 13:30 orgolove wrote: And yet you guys would rather listen to ineffective and at best circumstantial evidence without looking at hard data. Dude, EM was on Kurumi day 1. He was on Cthazsa instead of Amber[Light] Day 2, the switched late. Pretty sure that's why people were looking at voting for him. Plus EM was on chaoser's list of suspects and chaoser got 3 mafia in one day (if you include Irish_Punk13). Your analysis had EM at 2.5 and sinani at 1.5, both middle of the table. You admit it wouldn't have caught GGQ. On May 10 2011 16:54 orgolove wrote: Of course, this process isn't completely infallible. For instance, I probably would not have caught GGQ with this method, as he voted for cthsazsa just once during the second day. This also shows the most important flaw of this method - lack of data. The more data I have, the more accurate I can get. You have more data to be accurate now, the EM lynch. Yet now you don't want to analyse it. | ||
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First one on day 1. On May 05 2011 07:03 ilovejonn wrote: I think this is true. I don't know why he would ask questions such as what was your mafia experience. Sure it generates discussion but is any of that really relevant to scum hunting? Unless this is another one of his plans to draw out responses.. He is agreeing with orgolove about his suspicion of redtooth. This post is interesting for another reason. I would like to refer everyone to Kitaman27's analysis of Amber's posts on Day 3. The key point here is that Amber was trying to tie himself to redtooth. Orgolove on the other hand is attacking redtooth. 3 posts on day 3. The first one casts doubt upon his analysis, which incidentally had ilovejonn as the second ranked target. On May 11 2011 03:17 ilovejonn wrote: Hold up everyone. You guys still think I am scum just because of a) I did not vote switch to Amber, and b) I was on the bad end of the lynches? Did I not already say I was going to be out the whole day on Mother's day? I cannot believe you guys would have missed that. Even if chaoser claimed his DT earlier in the day I would not have seen his claim, and his claim was actually near the end of the day cycle! I'd also like to hear what the numbers meant on orgolove's stat thing. 0.5 in b, 3 in g, 5 in j. I read somewhere people got - points just because they vote switched to Amber? Did you not consider the circumstance where I could not have gotten internet access that day because I was out? And just because people vote switched to Amber does NOT mean they are town, it could have simply been a bussing of a team mate. Second one, accuses orgolove of being godfather On May 11 2011 03:52 ilovejonn wrote: Wow can you guys not read only one part of a sentence? I am basically role claiming there hello? It's fine if you don't believe you can go ahead and vote for me, but I'd rather not have us mislynch. If there are still veterans in the mafia, my GF suspects are redtooth and orgolove. If there are only new players in the mafia team left it could be anyone really. He's been suspicious of redtooth before, as noted in the quote from day 1. His first suspicion of orgolove comes after the spreadsheet. This is the last one, on page 81. On May 11 2011 04:25 ilovejonn wrote: redtooth because he has been rather quiet after being wrong and going against chaoser. He just posted before but he voted for himself in case he can't vote. I'm willing to let that go because I know real life circumstances can influence how you play, but I'm still suspicious. orgolove because I don't recall seeing him doing any real behavioral analysis besides putting out that spreadsheet. This is of course assuming the GF is a veteran, that's why I chose those too. Like I said if the GF is not a veteran, then it could be anyone really. While he has talked about you orgolove, that isn't 3 out of 4. It's 3 out of 15 on day 3. On the other hand, he hasn't attacked orgolove at all until he was brought up as mafia by orgolove himself. | ||
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Orgolove. You painted me as the biggest target, but you voted ilovejonn. On May 10 2011 18:04 orgolove wrote: If you really are a green, it does us no good to fall silent. Explain your thought process. Give us a reason to not vote for you. Come on man. I'm assuming I did enough to make you feel ok about me, so you vote ilovejonn who is second on your list. You don't vote for either sinani206 or EM. Neither did you defend them actively (i.e. by name), other than your list which had them in the middle. Is it the case that you were away for most of the day and just didn't have time to defend them and got back to your computer half an hour after the lynch? And this: On May 12 2011 13:15 orgolove wrote: Sure. Lynch me -_- I really don't care anymore. is because you're angry at being ignored? You've been on the ban list twice before. It makes sense if you are angry because noone listened to you and you've got a history of lashing out. My big backlash against you has been because I've been at the top of your list, because I suspected you before and lastly because I don't like being told I'm a stupid noob, even if it's true. After looking through ilovejonn's posts about you and the fact that 3 of your 4 have completely rubbished what you said, I'm listening to you again. Please update the spreadsheet. I'll echo what you said to me. If you are green, it does us no good to fall silent. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [Lists of doom from chaoser, orgolove a…] + Chaoser's list of doom: On May 09 2011 12:12 chaoser wrote: And also Sinani Chaoser's Mafia List: sinani ilovejohn GGQ EternalMisfit I will explain why each of them are as such He actually forgot me. I was on the Cthazsa train as well, I voted late in defense of Amber. Orgolove's list of doom On May 12 2011 12:47 orgolove wrote: Sure. My list of suspects remains the same.
Kita's list of doom On May 11 2011 12:00 kitaman27 wrote: Here are my two preferred lynch candidates for today. I apologize for the amount of quotes, but I think they are necessary to support my main points. Ilovejohn Conclusion: Scum jaminz My prime godfather suspect Conclusion: Godfather The new information is the people who voted for EternalMisfit to die: On May 12 2011 12:07 Node wrote: FINAL Vote Tally Day 3: EternalMisfit (8) sandroba ilovejonn Cthsazsa Impervious AirbladeOrange sinani206 Mig jaminz Note that EternalMisfit was the first player to receive the majority. ilovejonn voted for Kurumi, Cthazsa and EternalMisfit. Someone else did too, someone who hasn't been brought up much at all. He is on chaoser and orgolove's lists of doom. He's been lurking like crazy. AIRBLADEORANGE His vote made it 6-4 in favour of EM. He also voted Kurumi and was on Cthazsa before switching after chaoser's DT claim. He has 29 posts so far. His posts include: Attacking chaoser while defending Irish_Punk13 Advocates lynching of townies Defense of Kurumi Immediately after, attack on Kurumi once Irish_Punk13 calls him out. Defense of Jaminz. Also he tries to tie Kurumi and Irish_Punk13 together. The post doesn't say all that much more. On May 05 2011 11:59 AirbladeOrange wrote: I think this is a really good point. Jaminz, you are playing differently than last game but I think it's a good different. I believe Chaoser to be town, he is doing a great job of encouraging discussion and taking stands and demanding responses. This is very important for town as I learned last game. Be bold and make the mafia scared. It's okay for town to die as long as they mafia leave clues behind. Clues are much easier to decipher later in the game when you figure out who they are voting for and pressuring and who they bandwagon against. I'm still voting for Kurumi. His type of posting just does not seem pro town. We need to stay on task, clear up and back up what we say, and stay focused on killing people who are likely mafia. If he flips red, I am inclined to take out Irish guy next because they seem like a pair. I think it was Chaoser that even pointed out the times they posted were within minutes of each other. And as always, if anyone wants me to clarify anything I said or wants my opinion on something please ask. Saying chaoser is town for the same reasons he said he was suspicious before? Once again, ties Kurumi and Irish together. On May 06 2011 04:20 AirbladeOrange wrote: I'm sticking with Kurumi. If he flips red then I will be on Irish next. Kurumi's posts are not getting any better or helping his situation at all. It is a mafia tactic to confuse and be crazy in the beginning. That's not a good strategy. I think Chaoser is town and I also believe Redtooth could be mafia. I was not convinced by his last big post. How is Irish an obvious townie? I just don't see that point at all. ties irish and kurumi again. That's three times now. Points out how we should look at people, but doesn't do it himself. Airblade provides absolutely no analysis except for Cthazsa. This post scares the shit out of me: On May 06 2011 07:00 AirbladeOrange wrote: Please don't use any vigilante actions now. It's way too soon without having much to go on. These percentages don't really mean anything and anyone advocating the use of our blue roles at this point is not having the town's best interests in mind. Actively encouraging blue roles not to act? Note that he doesn't just advocate vigis not shooting but any blue role being used. Defense of ilovejonn On May 06 2011 13:58 AirbladeOrange wrote: I remember ilovejonn being mostly a lurker in the last mafia game providing no real analysis. Why is he suspicious this game when he was acting the same way last game and was town? This post I don't understand at all. Attacking Conversion for also attacking Cthazsa? On May 07 2011 14:43 AirbladeOrange wrote: Conversion, I'm beginning to think more and more that Cthsazsa is mafia too, but I think you're going about calling him out in a way too aggressive way. I'm still suspicious of Redtooth but I think there is not enough to go on now and there are better candidates, especially Cthsazsa. I'm gonna look up his posts soon and post something on it. Arguments against Cthsazsa Next are two quote regarding Amber. He says that Amber is a good lynch but doesn't give a reason. He also encourages people to split the vote up as much as possible? On May 08 2011 06:54 AirbladeOrange wrote: Amber is in my top 5 suspects right now. I got Amber, Cthsazsa, Irish, Mig, and Redtooth in no particular order. Splitting the vote between several people I agree does the town little good, but at the same time not doing so could just be sheeping, making it easier for mafia to blend in. I'm open to suggestions as to how to do this. Another post about lynching Amber On May 08 2011 17:16 AirbladeOrange wrote: I'm good if town wants Amber and Cthsazsa as two of the lynch candidates. Irish will probably be modkilled. Final reasoning for Cthazsa over Amber. Comment on roleblocking - makes GGQ look suspicious. This kind of goes against the AO is mafia theory, but on the other hand at this point GGQ was looking bad and it could have been a play for town points. But tries to get people to ignore chaoser? Attack on Mig Attack on orgolove's analysis Only reasoning for voting EternalMisfit. He only had the 2 posts on day 3. Lastly, I defended the hell out of Airblade on day 1. It was kind of dropped after that, AO hasn't been looked at since. Airblade's actions have been: - Attack chaoser - Advocate lynch of townie - Defend Irish_Punk13, then turn around and attack him again. Desperately trying to tie him to Kurumi seems to me as an attempt to shield him once Kurumi flips. - Defend Jaminz - Defend ilovejonn - Advocate not using blue roles - Pretend to focus on who voted for Kurumi and never does anything about it. - Attack Cthazsa. This is the only analysis he has provided all game. - Attacks Conversion for also going after Cthsazsa? - Attack Amber but not vote for him. - Advocate splitting the vote up as much as possible. - Attack Mig, who voted early for Amber to die. - Switch his vote to Amber after Chaoser's roleclaim. - Make GGQ look suspicious. - Not bring up sinani206 or ilovejonn at all day 3 and vote EM. - Lastly, just before Day 4, pushing for sinani206. On May 13 2011 11:32 AirbladeOrange wrote: Is anyone against lynching Sinani assuming nothing crazy happens before then? I'd also like to refer to ilovejonn's analysis of EternalMisfit. Note that it DIRECTLY defends AirbladeOrange. EternalMisfit provided an analysis of AO on Day 1 which ilovejonn is attacking. CONCLUSION I'm feeling both ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are scumbuddies. I am however slightly confused about the interactions between Irish_Punk13 and AO and then AO's posts about wanting to lynch Amber, plus the post making GGQ look suss. Please discuss! Sinani is also on the table too but I'm starting to think he isn't mafia now. | ||
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When he flips red, I will vote for AirbladeOrange next. | ||
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On May 13 2011 12:09 kitaman27 wrote: Why push those two rather than sinani? What changed your mind that he isn't mafia anymore? The fact that AirbladeOrange posted, about half an hour before the daybreak, that we should lynch sinani206 despite not bringing him up at all previously. ilovejonn is the other major candidate and AO is completely ignoring that possibility. Remember that sinani206 is also in his first game. | ||
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On May 05 2011 12:04 AirbladeOrange wrote: For what it's worth, I was mafia last game and it was really easy to tunnel conversion and it even made him make some posting mistakes. He is new and in the other game I played with him he didn't contribute too much. Sorry for tunneling you last game conversion! It was the act of a desperate team. He then does this: On May 07 2011 14:43 AirbladeOrange wrote: Conversion, I'm beginning to think more and more that Cthsazsa is mafia too, but I think you're going about calling him out in a way too aggressive way. I'm still suspicious of Redtooth but I think there is not enough to go on now and there are better candidates, especially Cthsazsa. I'm gonna look up his posts soon and post something on it. Pretty sure that's putting doubt on Conversion, just like he and the rest of the mafia team did last game. I know we did that last game because I was mafia with AO last game. | ||
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On May 13 2011 12:10 jaminz wrote: Kita, I assume you meant to quote DropBear's other post? This one: And no jaminz, I'm pretty sure he was looking at the other post. Derailment much? | ||
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Here are AO's arguments against Cthazsa. Look at how indecisive and wishy-washy it is. | ||
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On May 13 2011 13:16 Conversion wrote: Hey guys. I know I'm not really helping town by being really quiet and voting for myself. Is kenpachi pretty much confirmed townie from his vig claim? Yes he is. Noone disputed it and there's no other possible way for GGQ to have died. | ||
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On May 13 2011 22:32 chaos13 wrote: So why would they have killed Sandroba and Cthasza? Just to get rid of two of the players we were sure were town aligned? For today at least I'm voting Sinani206, unless a better candidate pops up. Because Sandroba and Cthasza were confirmed innocents. Everyone else has had some doubt put on them at some stage. AO has not given a reason for voting for sinani206. Sinani has not defended himself yet. Impervious if you have doubts, don't vote him. | ||
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On May 13 2011 23:06 chaos13 wrote: Well he was one of the more experienced players, and he had already shown that he would be fairly active, so perhaps they wanted to take out a potential future threat. Maybe they misread him as a blue. Chances are it was this combined with his tunneling of Cthaszsa that made him a good target. Who are the remaining veteran mafia players on here? Orgolove, kitaman27, redtooth are easily the most experienced. Kenpachi is as well but he's a confirmed Vigilante. Yes I agree. Jackal was killed because it made Cthazsa look suss and because he's experienced. | ||
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On May 14 2011 03:08 sinani206 wrote: Do we know if we are Godfather? I heard somewhere that Godfather appears as town, is that why I don't know? Because if not I think I'm town. Come on man. If you are town defend yourself. Explain the reasoning behind your votes, behind your arguments. I don't think you are mafia anymore. Make a roleclaim, what role are you? | ||
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On May 14 2011 03:10 sinani206 wrote: I just said, I think I'm town. Ok that's cool. What role are you? Vanilla Townie? Detective? Third Party Planar Dragon? Check your role PM from GMarshal. You can't post it in the thread but you can tell us what role you are. The way things are going you are almost certainly going to be lynched. Do you want to be lynched? I don't think you're mafia anymore man, even though I voted for you on Day 3. If you are town you owe it to everyone to defend yourself. Tell us why you voted the way you did. Tell us why you never defended yourself yesterday. Tell us why you said you'd post analysis on day 3 and never did. If you give a satisfactory explanation I will move heaven and earth to save you. | ||
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I just found these posts by you. On May 12 2011 01:40 sinani206 wrote: This is a misunderstanding. At 14:40 I was about to go to sleep. I woke up at 23:05 and had to got to school. I am at school now and I am reading through the thread and writing my post. On May 12 2011 01:56 sinani206 wrote: I am really confused about everything that is going on. I have been reading the thread, but it is hard to understand something as unorganized as this. Maybe I'm missing something? I am not sure who to agree with. All of the accusations make sense. Eternalmisfit seems like he could be Mafia, and there is definitely good evidence to prove this. Ilovejonn claimed townie and seems suspicious, however he was also the one that first FoS'ed EM. I admit that my accusation of Kevconsim was quite stupid, reading back a few posts, but again, I hadn't seen the post about his emergency when I posted that accusation. Just because I am the easiest target doesn't mean you should gang up on me. In Sc2 Mafia, when the silent people get lynched, the loud ones turn out to be Mafia. These explain your votes and your lack of analysis early on day 3. Why didn't you post any analysis after this? | ||
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He is in his first game and has made mistakes but he isn't mafia. ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are Mafia. I strongly urge everyone to avoid voting for him and vote for ilovejonn instead. Ilj has been on so many scum lists recently. Chaoser had him pinned. Orgolove has him pinned. Kitaman27 has him pinned. I have him pinned. Please get behind this. Please! Impervious you have doubts. This is where you decide whether or not your doubts remain. Kenpachi you agreed with my analysis on AO. Please switch to ilovejonn. Kita, you suspect ilj too. Vote for him instead! | ||
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On May 14 2011 03:34 ilovejonn wrote: I agree, at least killing me will provide you guys with more information. I'll do whatever town needs the most. You haven't provided anything other than self defence since Day 2. The most significant analysis you've given so far has been on EternalMisfit. What's your roleclaim? On May 11 2011 03:52 ilovejonn wrote: Wow can you guys not read only one part of a sentence? I am basically role claiming there hello? It's fine if you don't believe you can go ahead and vote for me, but I'd rather not have us mislynch. If there are still veterans in the mafia, my GF suspects are redtooth and orgolove. If there are only new players in the mafia team left it could be anyone really. You never expanded on this. Like sinani206, if you are town, which I don't believe, you owe it us to defend yourself. Airblade, you haven't defended yourself either. Step forward gents. | ||
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On May 14 2011 03:34 ilovejonn wrote: ##Unvote: sinani206 ##Vote: ilovejonn | ||
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Sinani I agree with most of your analysis and I've been backing you but.... that post is very different to ones you've made previously. Is there some scumcoaching going on there I wonder? | ||
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This is his analysis just now on Day 4 on the opposing lynch target. The style and confidence are different. He is much more structured now that he is under pressure. This seems counter-intuitive. Oh fuck I'm having a sandroba moment. Why is everyone being so quiet? | ||
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On May 14 2011 06:57 Varpulis wrote: You don't think that the EM wagon counts as a "counter bandwagon?" Scum could hop on that wagon without raising undue suspicion. there are what, 29 hours left in the day? ilovejonn has hardly "slipped through the cracks." If you want him lynched so bad, why don't you try to convince us? If you're not going to try, I'm not going to listen to you. The only argument that you've given is that he's been talked about a lot. I'm ignoring your data, because it's not reliable. If you can give me a solid argument, I'll bite. DropBear almost has me convinced already. Varpuli, I've saying almost exactly the same thing as orgolove. Ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are on his top 4 list. I've been saying ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange. He's wrong, but I'm right? That's a blatant contradiction. | ||
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On May 14 2011 06:57 Varpulis wrote: You don't think that the EM wagon counts as a "counter bandwagon?" Scum could hop on that wagon without raising undue suspicion. there are what, 29 hours left in the day? ilovejonn has hardly "slipped through the cracks." If you want him lynched so bad, why don't you try to convince us? If you're not going to try, I'm not going to listen to you. The only argument that you've given is that he's been talked about a lot. I'm ignoring your data, because it's not reliable. If you can give me a solid argument, I'll bite. DropBear almost has me convinced already. How is orgolove wrong and me right when we're saying the same thing? On May 14 2011 15:06 Varpulis wrote: He's new. At that point in the game, nobody had enough information to post long, structured analyses. His list was well organized, if misguided. As it stands, his analysis and contribution is better than ilovejonn's. Sinani hasn't posted "i'm town just lynch me," and sinani doesn't have strong connections to anybody in the game because he's been so quiet. Jonn has, and he has potential connections with ABO and jaminz, iirc. You wrote the wall on ilovejonn. Do you think that you were right? | ||
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Ok I see your point. | ||
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So I'm going to give two competing theories which will depend on this lynch. Possibility A: ilovejonn AirbladeOrange redtooth/jaminz ilovejonn is on orgolove AO is on sinani redtooth and jaminz are lurking like crazy. Possibility B: sinani206 VarpuliS/Impervious orgolove Sinani, Varpuli and orgolove are all on ilovejonn. Impervious is on sinani206. Reasoning is coming in a few minutes. | ||
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On May 14 2011 17:59 Forumite wrote: DropBear, is this based on older data too, or just the last lynch? Both. Hang on almost done. | ||
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Jaminz and ilovejonn by kitaman27 here. Orgolove by Forumite here. Redtooth because he has completely disappeared after day 2 and was on the Cthazsa train, plus voted chaoser day 1. The two groups have been polar opposites since around Day 2. I find it extremely likely that they are of opposite alignment. sinani v ilovejonn is the lynch right now. orgolove has backed sinani and repeatedly gone after ilj AO has repeatedly defended ilj and is now going after sinani These two pairs are pretty certain to me. The others fall in line but are slightly less certain, plus I lean more toward redtooth over jaminz. Others Many of these people have been the focus of little attention so far. I'm finding it quite difficult to analyse many of them, partly because almost all of them have either extremely low activity or relatively low activity. There aren't too many patterns I can see either. Kenpachi Has claimed the vigi-kill on GGQ unopposed. Confirmed Vigilante. Voted himself Day 1 Voted Forumite intially Day 2. Fourth person to vote for Amber[Light], did so before DT claim. Voted EternalMisfit initially Day 3 to make it 4-1 in his favour. Switched to chaos13 to make it 7-6 in sinani206's favour. Switches to sinani206 last minute to tie the votewith EM 8-8. Kenpachi has actually had a remarkable success rate this game. He shot the right person with his Vig shot, voted Amber early and voted against lynching EM. I would like to see you do some more analysis Kenpachi. You have been playing well and are experienced, tell us what you think other that "lolscum". kitaman27 Was one of only 5 people to vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1. Initially voted for Cthazsa on Day 2 then switched to Amber[Light] after Chaoser's claim. Voted sinani206 Day 3 to reduce the margin in EM's favour to 7-5. Kita was on Amber and Irish_Punk13 day 1. He also called out GGQ Day 2. The only slip he's had was voting for Cthazsa. He has been providing analysis throughout the game. I feel good enough about him to call him town. Mig Hasn't vote-switched at any point in the game. Only 1 vote in each cycle. Voted late on Kurumi Day 1. Voted early on Amber[Light] Day 2. Voted EternalMisfit Day 3. Low activity. Was called out by AirbladeOrange. He's been very quiet, but he was like that in XXXVIII as a medic. His early vote on Amber, who took the lead early on partially due to his vote, gives him massive points for mine. Calling him town. Conversion??? Voted early on Cthazsa Day 1 First person to vote Cthazsa Day 2, one of the last to switch to Amber[Light] after DT claim. Voted himself Day 3, citing lack of time. Low activity. Was called out by AirbladeOrange as a possible scum bandwagon (see my analysis of AirbladeOrange), then attacked by AO (see the same). This guy is hard to read. In XXXVIII he was the same and very very frequently came up as a diversion for us. In Newbie Mini Mafia 1 where he was mafia, he actually was extremely active, opposite to the habits of most players who are louder when town and quiet when mafia. However, it was a very different atmosphere there as he was probably most experienced. Hesitantly calling him town. elmizzt Tends to vote quite late. Votes redtooth Day 1. Voted Beneather initially Day 2, then last person to switch to Amber. Votes for sinani206 to tie the vote at 7-7. Low activity. Calls out Irish_Punk13 day 1. Called out by DropBear, then kitaman27. I feel the reasons for his voting are quite reasonable. My original analysis of him was shown to be flawed. I am hesitantly calling him town. The only thing stopping me from outright declaring it is that he was fairly quiet in his last game, Surprisingly Normal Mini 1 and was Mafia there. Forumite Voted Kurumi early. Unvoted to vote redtooth. Unvoted again to be the second last person to vote Kurumi. Voted Irish_Punk13 Day 2, unvotes and votes Cthazsa to take Cthazsa to a 5-3 lead over Amber. Does not switch after the roleclaim. Day 3 is the first person to vote for sinani206. Same on Day 4. Mid-level activity. Large analysis on orgolove. I'm not sure on this one. I would say that he is definitely town if orgolove ends up being mafia, but isn't completely implicated if it's the other way around. Second opinions are welcome. Impervious/kevconsim/Rising_Phoenix No vote Day 1 so was replaced. No vote Day 2 so replaced. Votes EM Day 3 to make it 5-3 in Em's favour. Extremely low activity until Impervious comes in. Voted on by sinani206 Day 2. Sinani doesn't change his vote despite the DT claim. This guys confuses me a bit as there's an insane amount of backtracking in only a short space of time. Initial post is to Call out redtooth and kitaman27. Attacks them again, along with EM, GGQ, sinani and ilovejonn while defending sandroba and Cthazsa. Advocates a DT check on sinani rather than a vig hit. Reiterates suspicion of kita and goes after EM and myself. On May 10 2011 23:12 Impervious wrote: Backtracks on kitaman27Which is why I'm suspicious of him. If EM is town, then I'm fairly certain that ilj would be scum, based on how he's been acting. Defends sinani206 while attacking EM and ilovejonn. HUGE push to get sandroba back onto EM instead of ilovejonn AttackArgue that EM's roleclaim via PM is a lieI don't understand this at all?Calls on orgolove to help and paints himself as suspicious. Diverts discussion onto talking about why the nightkills on Night 1 Backtrack on information from the lynchTalks about lynch on sinani206 Starts to feel sinani is town but votes him anyway? Still talking about Jackal's death. Last post is him being drunk. I don't understand how he's been pushing the hell out of ilovejonn yet now switches to sinani206 day 4? On May 12 2011 05:40 Impervious wrote: I'm in agreement that it is a possibility. However, like you said, we'd learn more about ilj from this lynch. And we can get sinani later as well. We're far from a lylo. Although, I would like to make this one count - taking the mafia down to 1kp would be really, really nice right now. This guy is the one I'm least certain of in my two competing theories. I'd like some second opinions on the analysis of him. chaos13 Hasn't vote-switched at any point in the game. Second person to vote for Kurumi Day 1. Third person to vote Amber Day 2. Third person to vote sinani206 Day 3. Low activity. Friend of Irish_Punk13. Mentioned that Irish had forgotten his password and would probably get modkilled, hence had been in contact with him on Day 2. I feel that if they were on the same team, being mates and in contact, chaos13 would have moved hell and high water to help Irish get his password back. Chaos has been decisive. As chaoser mentioned, the mafia were resisting Amber's lynch hard so him voting early for Amber gives him huge townie points. VarpuliS Day 1 votes Kurumi Day 2 votes Beneather. Switches to Cthazsa when it becomes apparent that Amber is in danger when he ties the lead with Beneather and helps bring Cthazsa past Amber. Switches to Amber after DT claim. Early vote for sinani206 Day 3. Has been very active. This is very similar to his habits as a townie in Surprisingly Normal Mini 1 and Sleeper Cell where he was town in both. High on orgolove's list of doom This is mostly due to his Day 2 voting patterns, all of which are understandable. Not present on many others. DropBear Voted Beneather initially Day 1 then swapped to Cthazsa. Swapped votes a lot Day 2 from redtooth to orgolove to sandroba to Cthazsa to Amber after the DT claim. Voted ilovejonn Day 3, switched to sinani206 to tie the vote with EM at 7-7. I've been wrong on a lot of things so far but I'm trying to analyse as much as possible and admit my mistakes. I hope everyone can appreciate that even though I've been erratic I'm trying to help. I'm staying on ilovejonn. I'm extremely confused about his self-vote. Will not be back until just before lynch time. I URGE redtooth and Kenpachi to come out and start posting. If we have any detectives remaining with information as well, please please come out! | ||
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On May 14 2011 18:19 Forumite wrote: DropBear, one thing that looks odd with Possibility A, why would they lynch EternalMisfit if they didn´t want to save sinani206? If they are the scum, then they wouldn´t have gained anything on lynching EM over sinani206, right? If EM is town, why wouldn't they want to lynch him? It's a mislynch right there. If EM dies, they can defend Ilovejonn against sinani206. Assuming Possibility A is correct, if they can get sinani206 lynched today, it means they have successfully delayed 2 lynches and are more or less back in the game. | ||
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On May 14 2011 18:40 Forumite wrote: What I mean is, that if both sinani206 is Town too, then A wouldn´t risk themselves by going for EM, they´d try to spread out between the targets. You mean how AO, ilovejonn and jaminz all voted EM? This is one of the reasons why I lean to redtooth over jaminz. While I don't think AO has mentioned redtooth at all, my Night 1 analysis of ilovejonn shows that there were some links between ilovejonn and redtooth Day 1. I have included both redtooth and jaminz as the possible third for A but lean redtooth. See kita's analysis for why Jaminz should be there as well. | ||
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Firstly, welcome Xedat! Second, I am almost 100% ready to clear ilovejonn. The self-vote was strange and a bad idea but I can't really imagine a scenario in which a mafia would do this. Sorry for voting for you! Third, orgolove, shouldn't NOT voting for sinani206 give people red points on Day 4? I can't see how ilovejonn can be mafia after this. The next point I want to address is AirbladeOrange. My analysis of him was heavily based around him being tied to ilovejonn. This lynch makes AO look much much better. On the other hand, Mafia are in dire straits now. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we have another 3 mislynches up our sleeves, and that's assuming there aren't any veterans left in which case it could be more. In XXXVIII when our Mafia team was totally fucked, AO stayed on until the last possible moment. It's a trait he's shown before. I'm going to look over him again but my suspicions have dropped drastically following today's lynch. | ||
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Your activity has absolutely plummeted since Day 2 when chaoser named 4/6 of the mafia. You better get in here and explain yourself if you survive the night. He has, if my counting skills are correct, 94 posts on days 1 and 2. He had 4 posts on Day 3 and 4 combined. | ||
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).What do people think about a mass roleclaim once Day 5 begins? Too early? | ||
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On May 15 2011 15:20 Mig wrote: The only blue roles that might be left are veterans in which case it would obviously be retarded for them to claim. So yea definitely absolutely no point in role claiming. If this is the case and the only blues left are veterans, why wouldn't they want to claim? A) If they did it unopposed, noone would lynch them. B) Mafia having only 1 KP means they would have to kill other people. That way the pool of suspicious people shrinks. | ||
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On May 15 2011 15:49 orgolove wrote: 1. ilovejonn only started his bus after it became clear most of the town was onto two of the remaining three reds. His mindset - "if we're gonna lose one anyway, let it be the newb and not me." I can't believe you just think that post clears him. 2. You have to understand who has or doesn't have the information. Reds already knew that sinani is going to be lynched anyway. It's the "switch" that you see once the lynch is apparent that matters. Whether or not they first voted for a red is not as important. In fact, that type of analysis falls easy prey to reds voting for each other early on then switching just to confuse us. That is partially counted for the +1 that people receive each time their vote turns out to be a vote for an eventual confirmed green. ilovejonn has been posting and sending accusations everywhere. I strongly push for his lynch. Ok this makes sense, ilovejonn could have bussed sinani206. So you think ilovejonn. Who else? The godfather is still out there somewhere. | ||
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On May 15 2011 16:35 Mig wrote: How is anyone going to oppose them? What is to stop mafia from claiming veteran? There is no way we can know how many veterans are in this game so it would be incredibly easy for mafia to claim them. And we want mafia to hit the veterans..... This should be obvious. If they hit the vets they lose one of their kp. If we announce who our vets are the mafia will know which players they should avoid killing. I guess it would be easy for Mafia to claim Vet haha. I didn't even think of that. Ok you've convinced me. No mass roleclaim | ||
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Last game when I was mafia I PM'd Foolishness, the town coach, for help on several occasions. From: Foolishness Subject: Re: Town help XXXVIII Date: 4/14/11 11:43 You're reading too much into it. BC wouldn't do something like that on purpose if DrH was mafia because he knows someone might want to read into it. Do you find it likely that both elected officials are mafia? That's a really gutsy mafia play; having two of their prominent members run for office (and managing to get in as well). I find it extremely likely that at least one is town. Not to mention both of them think the other is mafia....don't think the mafia would do that if they had both offices. Original Message From DropBear: Hi, I wanted some advice. I made a post about bloody cobbler's timing quibble in night 2 and it seems to have been ignored. Basically DocH and Marsh were the only close candidates just before midnight then there was a sudden rush onto Flamewheel. BC makes a post regarding how he wants time to be called earlier, which would effectively stop Flamewheel getting in and leave Doc and Marsh in power. He is mafia coach after all so it looked suss to me. You know the guy better than I do, is there something behind this or am I reading too much into it? It looks to me that both of them are likely red from their posts anyway but this kind of convinced me. Thanks! If I am Mafia in this game I could easily have written that I PM'd Ver in an attempt to get town cred. If you're analysing me you should do it on my behaviour and voting not on the PMing post. | ||
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On May 15 2011 19:42 Xedat wrote: Or is it like last night that we should not post analysis so that the mafia cannot choose someone? Welcome I don't really follow the rule personally, but the general consensus has been to stay quiet at night. If you think you've found something interesting, post it just before the day post so Mafia doesn't have time to change their kill on it. | ||
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On May 16 2011 00:09 Varpulis wrote: @Xedat Welcome to the game. If you'd like a quick summary: The game began with a bandwagon lynch on Kurumi, a townie with erratic and confusing posting. Nobody had any real idea who the mafia were, but Irish_Punk13 was FoS'd by redtooth. Saying that Redtooth FoS'd Irish isn't entirely accurate. Redtooth made a random, inexplicable accusation before the game had even started: On May 04 2011 11:39 redtooth wrote: ^ Then please keep your comments out of thread to reduce clutter. Anyways, let us proceed with the game. Hey Irish_Punk13, I have a question for you: How good does it feel to be scum? Want me to explain how I figured it out so fast? Obvscumtell. Please be more discrete next time. I'll put my vote on as soon as the thread gets made. 1 scum down, 5 to go. .....and backtracked on it very quickly. On May 05 2011 14:48 redtooth wrote: FoS: Chaoser Reason 1: The Irish Lynch Push Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. Obviously not many people have been convinced, even though the reasoning behind this is pretty depressing in and of itself. + Show Spoiler [Rest of this post, quite long] + Back to his strategy. I initially thought that it was just a prolonged Minimalist Approach, something I assumed he was doing ever since he hopped onto my RVS vote. He seemed to have dropped it after a certain point (which was fine with me since it was getting nowhere) but Irish suddenly appeared again as top suspect in a later post making it very clear that Chaoser is still actively pursuing a lynch on Irish. Since Irish can’t be bothered to defend himself (more on that later), let’s examine Chaoser’s main arguments point-by-point on his behalf (I will paraphrase for the sake of brevity). Point 1: Irish had an odd reaction to our combined presses. First off, that’s not a scumtell. When two people with Ghost icons start attacking you while acting like they know what they’re doing, you pay attention. As a matter of fact, would it not have been more odd if he didn’t react the way he did? I mean who is comfortable with two “vets” pressing you off the bat, regardless of how much support there is to those presses? I’m curious as to what a normal, expected reaction would have been.Points 2 and 3: Irish creates empty content then chainsaw defends Kurumi by attacking AO. I’ll admit, I was pretty surprised at how much traction Irish’s argument got. However, I wouldn’t call it a “chainsaw defense” as much as it is a desperate attempt to look like you’re scumhunting. Irish didn’t have many choices in this position as he was expected to “hunt scum” and produce new and interesting content. He couldn’t accuse himself (duh). On the other hand, you would have spun an accusation if he jumped on the Kurumi wagon. Besides those two, there literally is nothing to go off of up to that point. This scenario is somewhat less likely so I won’t hold Chaoser as accountable for these 2 points.Point 4: “He is wishy-washy” See above. There is a sudden expectation on him to create novel contributions to the thread and this honestly seems like a very half-hearted attempt to fulfill those expectations. And you’re right it wasn’t an EBWODP. It was an EBWOP. It’s a picky counterargument to a nitpicky argument. What difference does it make? If anything, it perfectly fits his character of noobtown.Redtooth’s Defense, Point 5: He is very uninterested in the game right now You’ve made it very clear that he’s not going to slip your grasp without a serious defense. So why hasn’t he posted one? Because he’s uninterested. Scum is way more likely to fight back til the bitter end (see KillerSOS below) rather than just semi-abandoning a game. It’s not like he’s trying to lurk through it either since his bandwagon seemed to be the biggest at one point.Now you may be saying, “Hey redtooth! This looks more like a defense of Irish than a FoS on Chaoser.” Well the problem is that either Chaoser should have recognized these or he did recognize but chose to ignore them. Since he seems to be a solid player so far, I’m leaning towards the latter and that is the scummiest action exhibited by anybody in this game so far (essentially actively and knowingly promoting a lynch on obvtown). Everyone, consider the following questions as objectively as possible: Is it very possible that Irish is simply a noobtown? Yes Is it very possible that Irish’s “chainsaw defense” was actually just a noobtown analysis? Yes Is it very possible that Irish’s lack of defense is in his lack of interest in staying alive? Yes Is it very possible that Chaoser is tunneling, intentional or otherwise? Yes On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote: @Chaoser - I don't see how the argument is weak or convoluted. It essentially boils down to two things:
On May 06 2011 05:41 redtooth wrote: Irish I still think is town. Kurumi, I'll have to check again. Still leaning towards town though. Actually, where the hell did you even get that line of thought from my previous post? | ||
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On May 16 2011 13:00 AirbladeOrange wrote: Oroglove is my number one and redtooth is my number two. Airblade, at no time have you responded to my arguments against you. You aren't really contributing anything at all. Why did you try so hard to tie Kurumi and Irish together? Why did you defend Jaminz and ilovejonn? Why did you advocate not using blue roles? Why did you post that everyone should analyse the people who voted for Kurumi and never do it yourself, only analysing Cthazsa who wasn't on the list? Why did you advocate splitting up the votes? Why did you attack Conversion? Why did you attack Mig? Why did you vote EternalMisfit? | ||
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Kenpachi was obviously killed due to him being a confirmed innocent. However there is another possibility, he pushed on AO on Day 4. On May 13 2011 12:03 Kenpachi wrote: ##vote AirbladeOrange i approve. On May 14 2011 05:54 Kenpachi wrote: K. i dont wan tto kill sinani anymore. hes being stacked on way too fast in the past couple of hours. i say we kill AirbladeOrange.. Post sinani206 lynch: On May 16 2011 03:29 Kenpachi wrote: That Summary is a bit butchered because Medics most likely exist. Lets study the Mafia List GGQ - Roleblocker Amber[Light] - Goon sinani206 - Goon Irish_Punk13 - Goon Now then, through my inexistent humble insight, i believe the other two mafia are well experienced players. Why? well, 1 of them is the Godfather which is GOING to be top tier in the mafia. The Goon that is left is most likely experienced because of the Mafia META. You would never put more newbies that experienced players in the mafia due to heavy imbalance. Our prime suspects are.. redtooth ilovejonn impervious airbladeorange hey theyre all experienced. Either redtooth or ilovejonn is going to be the godfather because i believe they are the 2 most experienced of the 4 Pressure vote on AO from me. | ||
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On May 16 2011 17:56 Xedat wrote: I also think that AO would be stupid if he was mafia and killed kenpachi because of that, AO was not on most peoples list anymore, if killing kenpachi does something it is making us focus on AO more. It could be because AO is Mafia and he was too close to the truth. It could also be because Mafia were trying to make AO look suspicious. It could be that I'm reading too much into it and the only reason Kenpachi died was his innocent status I want a response for AO's actions before I clear him. | ||
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On May 16 2011 20:56 Xedat wrote: Orgolove, first thing you do is vote for ilovejon without explaining, tell us why you think he is mafia. He has explained why he voted ilovejonn, repeatedly. However he is basing his votes entirely off voting patterns. | ||
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EVERYONE GET IN HERE There have been only 26 posts in 12 hours. Nobody is saying anything so lets get organised. Chaoser isn't alive anymore and his list has almost run dry so we need to start thinking for ourselves, not sitting back. Mafia is content for everyone to sit back and do nothing. - Jaminz, redtooth, AirbladeOrange, kitaman27, Mig have all disappeared. All of you need to start posting, stat. - Jaminz, redtooth, AO, ilovejonn and orgolove have not responded to arguments against them. Get in here and explain yourselves. kitaman27, orgolove and Impervious, give us proper analysis of ilovejonn other than just voting patterns. Some of you have analysed him previously but you need to update it. Orgolove, voting alone is not enough. Look at his behaviour as well. redtooth, elmizzt and Forumite do Jaminz. Xedat you seem keen to do orgolove, as does Forumite. Get to it. Jaminz you do it as well. Chaos13, ilovejonn me have Impervious. AO and VarpuliS do redtooth. | ||
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On May 17 2011 03:53 AirbladeOrange wrote: I only recall stating that Jaminz was playing differently than last game we played with him because he was doing more analysis. I felt even if he was mafia it was good that he was more active than he was last game. I don't remember defending ilovejonn. At the time I said blues (vigilantes) should not use their roles because it was way too early to get a decent read on anyone to kill. Wasting a shot on a townie is worse than taking a small chance the vig will die at night. I did not feel compelled to do an analysis on people who voted for Kurumi. But I still say it would be a good idea. Splitting up votes helps hold people accountable for their actions and makes it wasier to weed out mafia who give poor reasoning for voting or just bandwagon. I don't think I ever attacked conversion, I only said he was being too aggressive. I thought Mig had a good chance of being mafia. I thought there was a good chance EternalMisfit was mafia. 1. You did defend ilovejonn. On May 06 2011 13:58 AirbladeOrange wrote: I remember ilovejonn being mostly a lurker in the last mafia game providing no real analysis. Why is he suspicious this game when he was acting the same way last game and was town? 2. 3. Why do you not feel compelled to do analysis on who voted for Kurumi? 4. Why did you think Mig was a good chance of being Mafia? You never really gave reasons. 5. Why did you think there was a good chance of EM being mafia? You never really gave reasons. Has anyone asked for replacement this round? Where are you redtooth? | ||
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On May 06 2011 07:00 AirbladeOrange wrote: Please don't use any vigilante actions now. It's way too soon without having much to go on. These percentages don't really mean anything and anyone advocating the use of our blue roles at this point is not having the town's best interests in mind. | ||
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On May 17 2011 08:43 kitaman27 wrote: I agree everyone should be posting, but I dislike it when a certain people are told to analyze specific people. It hides information about their motives since they are told who to push/defend. Everyone should be analyzing who they feel is most scummy. Ok that makes sense about not forcing specific people to analyse specific others, I was trying to get everyone talking again. On May 17 2011 10:46 kitaman27 wrote: -DropBear was real wish-washy. He was one of the first people to bring up sinani and pushed for his lynch day 3, but then he got cold feed on day 4. I'm also leaning town since this doesn't seem like a mafia reaction to me. I've never been wishy-washy. I've been very decisive in attacking sinani206 up until day 4 when I was confused by ilovejonn's selfvote. The posts defending sinani206 all came after this and showed my reasoning quite clearly. Jaminz also need to get in here and do some explaining other than how there aren't any medics, which we worked out 2 days ago. People who have been contributing heavily today: VarpuliS DropBear chaos13 kitaman27 Impervious Xedat Forumite The game has kind of reset to a mini in some respects, in which the townies are running around discussing things Day 1. I feel that there is maximum 1 mafia on this list and likely none at all. Note how the big lynch targets have been completely silent. | ||
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I looked back through ilovejonn's history and he has a strange habit of coming under suspicion often when he is town, this coupled with the fact that he was the alternative candidate to sinani206 makes feel better about him than the others. Jaminz I'm not entirely sure what to think. Imo these are the best three candidates. Arguments for redtooth: - Defended Irish and Amber - Repeatedly attacked Cthazsa - Repeatedly attacked Chaoser - Disappeared day 3 - Is experienced enough to potentially be godfather - Analysis by VarpuliS, someone I trust. Arguments for orgolove - Defended sinani206 - Only analysis has been on voting patterns, admits himself he wouldn't have caught GGQ and sinani206 - Little other contribution - Is experienced enough to potentially be godfather Arguments for Impervious - Given two replacements while four others were modkilled (Yes Node and Marsh I know this isn't supposed to be a reason [/b]- Pushed on a lynch of EM for information over sinani206 - Only real contribution is a wierd analysis of kitaman27 which doesn't really say anything - Low post count of kevconsim and Rising_Phoenix - On sandroba's list of doom just before he died - analysis by chaos13, someone I trust I was very suspicious of redtooth's attempted town control on night 1, he hasn't come out to explain himself. My vote remains on him. I'll check the thread in the morning, if it looks like redtooth will be modkilled I will switch to Impervious. | ||
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His experience previous to this game consists of only one game, Newbie Mini Mafia 1 in which he was mafia. A post game analysis of his posts was provided by kitaman27. His posts were full of saying not much at all. Here are some of his day 1 posts: After the early Irish kerfuffle, which started before the Day 1 post: On May 04 2011 12:56 Rising_Phoenix wrote: Who is irish_punk and why are people already voting for him? I probably missed something. Criticism of redtooth. This is his only major attempt at discussion. His arguments seem reasonable and are all on issues that were current at the time, as opposed to his big mafia post in Newbie 1 (see the kita analysis above). The rest of his posts are basically him saying he can't keep up. On May 05 2011 06:00 Rising_Phoenix wrote: I'm sitting here hoping that something interesting happen but all I see is: *SPAM* *SPAM* *SPAM* *SPAM* *SPAM* *SPAM* *SPAM* Also lots of finger pointing without any actual evidence. I almost say vote for the spammers so at least we can have some constructive comments. Also, the reason why my one post was unsubstantial is because I am still waiting for something to stick out. Right now all the spam looks suspicious, or at least is really annoying. On May 05 2011 12:23 Rising_Phoenix wrote: This thread is going so fast I'm exploding!!! Maybe around 4 am it'll slow down so I can do some post checking and post some analysis but I honestly can't keep up at this rate. On May 06 2011 05:15 Rising_Phoenix wrote: You know what, vote for me. I honestly can't handle so many posts and I don't have time to write something, I know I'm not contributing but I honestly thought I'd have the time to actually contribute to this but I don't. Maybe if there won't be another page of posts by the time I'm done writing this I'd be able to feel like there isn't such a huge amount of information coming in, but if you want me off I honestly don't mind right now. Rising_Phoenix was then replaced. These posts scream bored and overwhelmed townie to me. I'm retracting my suspicion of Impervious, even though the information lynch was a bad idea. Redtooth doesn't look like he's going to show. He's still my number one target but I'm considering changing if he's going to be modkilled anyway. | ||
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On May 18 2011 04:04 AirbladeOrange wrote: Good news: The thunderstorm made me grow tentacles and I have a secret role because of it. Man I know I'm tunneling you but you still aren't contributing. | ||
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Tomorrow we need some serious activity guys. The same couple of people are talking and everyone else is hiding | ||
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kita, how the hell are you still alive? You have more experience than everyone else here put together and you ripped the scum team a new arsehole in XXXVIII | ||
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On May 19 2011 12:18 chaos13 wrote: Well, I've made my thoughts on jaminz clear. Where does everyone else stand on him right now? I like what you did bloke is dodgyVarpuli posted this in the night: On May 18 2011 12:27 Varpulis wrote: orgolove, we're not sheeping. We're just not making the right decisions. ilovejonn probably needs to get lynched. We've been ignoring orgolove for too long. I'm not sure whether to feel that this was on the right track or that he was killed for his obvious townness. | ||
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We've had a lot of townie deaths but no millers yet | ||
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On May 20 2011 07:09 AirbladeOrange wrote: I'm sticking with oroglove as he has been my number one lynch candidate for the past two day cycles. Really? I make it last 1 day. On May 15 2011 07:24 GMarshal wrote: Vote Tally Day 4: AirbladeOrange (0) ilovejonn (4) DropBear orgolove sinani206 Kenpachi sinani206 (7) Forumite AirbladeOrange kitaman27 Impervious chaos13 Varpulis Mig orgolove (1) ilovejonn About 4 and a half hours left in the day. Sinani206 currently leads with 7 votes, ilovejonn the runner-up with 4. The only reference you have to orgolove is this, from Day 5: On May 16 2011 13:00 AirbladeOrange wrote: Oroglove is my number one and redtooth is my number two. Why orgolove AO? You continue to say absolutely nothing. I know you're quite active from when I played with you last game. In reference to this again. You never said why you thought Mig or EM could be mafia. Why? | ||
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- No contribution - Massive lurking - Voted Kurumi day 1, Cthazsa day 2, EM Day 3 all townies - Doesn't feel obliged to do analysis - No reasons given for any votes | ||
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On May 20 2011 15:58 Xedat wrote: I like that more dead people than people still alive post -.- I think everyone's waiting for the second coming of chaoser to lead the masses to victory. On May 20 2011 09:43 kitaman27 wrote: @DropBear: Guess you will have to ask mafia why I'm not dead. Scum had a long list of confirmed towns to plow through, though I have to admit I was kinda surprised it wasn't me last night rather than varp. There were 2 posts in the last night saying people were suspicious of you. You are the most experienced one left, give us something more than just prodding lurkers. Staying on AO. Will switch to jaminz before lynch time if I can't anyone to join my bandwagon | ||
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It's readjustment time again. Jaminz' flip is revealing. Big post coming from me just before daybreak. | ||
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On May 21 2011 17:18 Xedat wrote: After this night it will be 6 town 2 mafia, time is running out. I just looked at the votes, the only one ho voted for Impervious and Jaminz is Mig, but I don't think that this is too scummy as 3/4 of all people with many votes (Imp,Jaminz,redtooth) have flipped green, the only one who also had many votes was orgolove and I am quite certain that he is not red. Dropbear has been on AirbladeOrange for a while, if he could link to an analysis of AirbladeOrange I could be inclined to vote for him today. I have the feeling that one mafia hides beteen the more inactive players and one between the active players, but you can't be too certain on that. Here on AO. A few things have changed since then though, I had him tied to ilovejonn. He still hasn't really done enough to make me leave him alone tbh. | ||
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. Will read up and do some analysis now. RIP Forumite and it looks like orgolove is preeeeeeeeetty fucked right now | ||
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![[image loading]](http://www.johnarroyo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/2356i_m_back.jpg) Sorry been quiet the last few days, been chasing a female. With a colossal fail it's back to mafia! The general consensus is that orgolove should go today. This post is just before Forumite's death. On May 22 2011 05:01 Forumite wrote: Scumhunting is hard. I think orgolove is scum, but whenever I look elsewhere it gets tough, partly because of the tunneling on orgolove, everything else gets distorted around it, like ilj, orgolove has been tunneling on him for so damn long. This suggests to me that he either checked orgolove the night he died or that he checked him before that and he flipped green. It also suggests the possibility of him having checked ilovejonn and him coming up green. Forumite has been pushing the hell out of orgolove and everyone has wagoned on him today based pretty much entirely on this. To be honest I'm not completely convinced. Forumite has been pushing orgolove but he wasn't 100%. As for you AO... On May 22 2011 02:10 AirbladeOrange wrote: These two quotes are from page 97. I'm getting more suspicious of DropBear because he continues not only to push me without any good evidence but also he has a pretty bad voting record. These two posts were when sinani206 was under a lot of pressure and DropBear seems to be publicly trying to help him out and gain him some town credit by urging him to defend himself then repeatedly states he now thinks sinani to be town. I'm not convinced on DropBear but he might be a good candidate for the other goon assuming the godfather is a more experienced player. ilovejonn gets town credit because of this (probably coached) attack post by sinani after there was a good chance he was getting lynched: AO you haven't really done ANYTHING since an early analysis of Cthazsa. I'm trying to get you to help. You are continually making decisions with absolutely no reasoning provided. The more it happens the more worried I get. On May 17 2011 03:53 AirbladeOrange wrote: I did not feel compelled to do an analysis on people who voted for Kurumi. But I still say it would be a good idea. I thought Mig had a good chance of being mafia. I thought there was a good chance EternalMisfit was mafia. You still haven't answered these. WHY MIG AND EM? WHY NOT DO ANALYSIS? On May 12 2011 03:05 AirbladeOrange wrote: I haven't been posting much lately because I don't really know what to do or say. Are we generally agreeing to pick out two people to vote on again? I'm leaning toward EternalMisfit at this point. I'm going to vote now since I might not be back before the end of the day. I think what I'm going to do later is look at the first day of the game and see who was voting for who and who was defending who out out our suspicious people list. I want to look at the posts that weren't necessarily suspicious at the time but might be now. No reasoning for EM. Your vote analysis never transpired. On May 16 2011 13:00 AirbladeOrange wrote: Oroglove is my number one and redtooth is my number two. Why? On May 23 2011 01:40 AirbladeOrange wrote: orgolove is my vote again. Next in line are probably DropBear and Kita, maybe jaminz. I don't feel like I have much to go by now though because there is too much to go by. Why? The analysis you provide of me today is pretty much the first thing you've done since day 2 that wasn't a one-liner. Also, pretty sure that I pointed out that sinani's ilj analysis looked coached before anyone else did, directly after it. On May 14 2011 14:31 DropBear wrote: Lol it's almost a perfectly split lynch again. Sinani I agree with most of your analysis and I've been backing you but.... that post is very different to ones you've made previously. Is there some scumcoaching going on there I wonder? On May 14 2011 15:00 DropBear wrote: This is sinani's day 1 analysis. This is his analysis just now on Day 4 on the opposing lynch target. The style and confidence are different. He is much more structured now that he is under pressure. This seems counter-intuitive. Oh fuck I'm having a sandroba moment. Why is everyone being so quiet? Due to my confusion I offered an alternative. | ||
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On May 22 2011 14:19 chaos13 wrote: Day 4 thoughts on Mig here.I have a few problems with what you're saying: -You deflect my question about AO, and then don't fully answer it -You advocate lynching kitaman27, an experienced player whom everyone thinks is town -You say we need to find the GF after we lynch orgolove. You seem to have information that I don't, seeing that as far as I'm aware, orgolove himself could be the godfather. Your votes are also rather incriminating. The only time you have voted for mafia is the day we lynched sinani206, and on that day he was 99% confirmed scum. AirbladeOrange, DropBear, and kitaman27, what do you think of Mig? Since then Mig has: Voted for sinani206 on the day he was lynched Voted redtooth then switched to Impervious Voted Jaminz His voting record is quite bad. His posting looks alright though. I can't find much that is suss at all. Everything he does he gives a reason for and clearly states it. It all seems to be in order. I feel much much better about Mig than I feel about most of the others. Chaos, not everyone thinks kita is town. You yourself accuse him here. And I don't understand what you mean when you say that Mig has more information? Could you explain please? | ||
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This is the last post from Amber[Light]. On May 09 2011 11:59 Amber[LighT] wrote: Damn you mothers day! Terrible analysis by the town. No wonder you were pushing bullshit for the last few days. Chaoser and Sandroba, not actually good at scumhunting. Remember that town. This is after chaoser named GGQ, sinani and oohed and ahhed about ilovejonn. Obviously it was trying to divert attention away from chaoser's list. In the event that orgolove flips green I will probably vote ilovejonn tomorrow, depending on who survives the night. In the event that orgolove flips red, it's down to kita, AO and elmizzt.. Xedat, Mig, chaos13 are clear townies to me and ilovejonn would be cleared completely after being the alternative target to both orgolove and sinani206. | ||
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I think we should keep it quiet tonight guys. Mafia will be trying to avoid taking out people that are found suspicious. Keep your analysis to the morning, or post it at the very last second of the night. | ||
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On May 24 2011 14:20 Mig wrote: Why would we keep quiet? Mafia is not gonna kill you/elmizzit/ao/ilj tonight regardless of what we say. We should not be quiet when one of the only active people left is going to be killed. We need to discuss what our best play is now while we have the chance. If we keep quiet you are going to quickly find yourself trying to scum hunt with people who have posted 3 times in the last 2 days. Alright fair point. Mig, Xedat and chaos are clear as far as I'm concerned. The remaining 2 mafia are certainly amongst kitaman27, ilovejonn, AO and elmizzt. Of these: kita has been the most vocal. ilovejonn has done nothing bar attack EM and defend himself against orgolove AO has attacked Cthasza and done nothing else. elmizzt defended himself against me and not much else. If I was a betting man I'd say it's the last two, possibly ilj. | ||
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On May 24 2011 16:04 Mig wrote: So who specifically do you want us to vote for tomorrow db? And why. I'd like to keep it to AO and ilovejonn, possibly elmizzt as well. Neither of them are contributing at all. They have both been lurking like crazy. They both have atrocious voting patterns and are 1 and 2 on orgolove's vote analysis. They were both on chaoser's list of potentials. On May 09 2011 12:12 chaoser wrote: Ok, so here's why I pulled my plan and claimed so late. As you all can see, the votes between Cth and Amber was pretty fucking close just before my claim, which people bumping Amber further ahead near the end. What does this mean? This means mafia was resisting Amber's lynch as hard as fuck. That means probably anyone who voted for Amber[light] to get lynched is townie. I'm not 100% sure on this, but I am pretty sure. That being said, there's going to be a lot of mafia on the Cthsazsa vote list. And I'm going to point out a few of them: And also Sinani Chaoser's Mafia List: sinani ilovejohn GGQ EternalMisfit I will explain why each of them are as such Look in the spoiler. ilovejonn and AO are both there on the list of voting for Amber early. Everyone else on the list except Xedat is now dead. I reckon we can get one more at least. | ||
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On May 25 2011 09:38 kitaman27 wrote: I find it interesting that you list all the people who voted to save Amber, but omit yourself solely due to the fact that your vote came after GMarshal's update. I've already pointed this fact out. On May 13 2011 11:58 DropBear wrote: I'm probably unlikely to get killed tonight, I've been wrong way too many times. But just in case, here goes. This may change depending on who dies tonight. He actually forgot me. I was on the Cthazsa train as well, I voted late in defense of Amber. I missed the post by Forumite. It's interesting to say the least. | ||
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Voting AO, at least until he explains himself which he is aggressively avoiding. Is that even proper grammar? I dunno cos its... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-Naa1HXeDQ On May 25 2011 11:50 kitaman27 wrote: Meh close enough to 11. This post makes me think he may have gotten checked. Back to sleep. This is very different to his posts about orgolove. He was rock-solid on orgolove, not so here just a suspicion. | ||
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On May 26 2011 11:49 AirbladeOrange wrote: Alright. Lay some questions on me. Let's start with these. Why did you think EM and Mig were Mafia? Why not do analysis on the Kurumi vote list, despite pointing out yourself that it would be a good idea? Why were orgolove and redtooth your number 1 and 2? Why me and kita? On May 23 2011 01:40 AirbladeOrange wrote: I don't feel like I have much to go by now though because there is too much to go by. What does this even mean? Why are you so quiet? | ||
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On May 26 2011 08:43 elmizzt wrote: Yea, I've been keeping up. I just really don't have much to say, unfortunately. Wtf? You've got large numbers of posts in almost every forum except this one the last few days. You're obviously active. You worry me man. Yes you are going to be critiqued. But if you are town, stand up and help. We don't have chaoser to lead us anymore we need everyone contributing. Speak up! | ||
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On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote: Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. This doesn't make sense to me really. I would have thought that if you'd cleared someone who has been the topic of a fair amount of discussion you'd want to back him pretty heavily. | ||
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ON ELMIZZT I did analysis on elmizzt on day 3 but it was pretty shitty including misinterpreting two of his posts. With him having caught my eye early and still being alive this late in the game I will try again. Elmizzt has been very quiet. He has 21 posts on day 1. His activity drastically drops after this, with 21 in the next 6 days and 7 nights combined. He has 118 posts on TL this week alone and is obviously active due to him replying to kita extremely quickly. I'm starting to see a few similarities between elmizzt's posting in this game and in Surprisingly Normal Mini 1, in which he was mafia. These might be a little bit of a reach, I'd like second opinions on whether they are relevant or I'm trying too hard to make them fit. SNMM 1 When Scholeosis, the other Mafia member, was under extreme heat Day 2 elmizzt refused to discuss his buddy at all. XXXIX AO is under pressure today. On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote: I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis  I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight. On May 26 2011 08:43 elmizzt wrote: Yea, I've been keeping up. I just really don't have much to say, unfortunately. In both circumstances he is unwilling to provide solid opinions regarding AO despite the fact that he has obviously been keeping up to date. Assuming AO is scum, this is a similar reaction he had to a teammate being under the pump in SNMM1. Additionally he has several "lol" posts of little to no input in both games. There are only two references to elmizzt from confirmed scum players and both are extremely indirect: GGQ attacking kita who is attacking elmizzt. sinani lists inactive people on day 2 as being suspicious and neglects to include elmizzt who had 3 posts, all of which were in the strange interaction with kita about him blending in. On May 08 2011 11:54 elmizzt wrote: Make up your mind. Am I doing a "to good job blending in" or sticking out? This exchange is still strange to me and as far as I am aware was never really explained. Defense of AO. Chooses ilovejonn over AO with no reasoning ilovejonn, despite stating that he is on night shift and is busy, has almost as many posts as these two combined. If AO is lynched and flips red, elmizzt is a good person to go after next. | ||
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On May 27 2011 02:55 AirbladeOrange wrote: I thought EM was mafia because I found other people's analysis to be convincing and the general vibe I got from his posting seemed like he was hiding info for something. Mig I had a suspicion of a while ago and I don't really remember why. He seems to be better now. I didn't feel like doing analysis on Kurumi's voting list. oroglove and redtooth both really turned my off because they each seemed arrogant. Oroglove just stopped posting things he thought were useful and started to do the one liners and "I told you so" type posts. Redtooth did a similar type thing where he seemed to not understand why people didn't see things the way he did, and he seemed to give only chaoser credit. I just felt both were being manipulative. I'm still undecided on who my top suspects are but Kita is because he is an alive vet and you are because I don't underestimate your ability in this game even though you are a fairly new player. But really I don't have much of a clue right now. WTF why? Why this vibe? Why is Mig better now? Why don't you feel like it? You haven't voted yet man. If you end up being a townie I'm gonna be so pissed off at you! | ||
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Do we have to get one tmoro or lose? | ||
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ENOUGH IS ENOUGH Impervious, Jaminz and now AO have died because they wouldn't defend themselves. Tomorrow everyone better be fucking talking. This close to the end of the game you have no excuses anymore. Time to stand up boys. | ||
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The only thing I can see wrong with this, why did he vote for Irish_Punk13 on Day 1? This could have been an attempt to buy early cred when there was no way he was getting lynched, or it could have been that he just got it right. | ||
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On May 28 2011 15:50 Mig wrote: But the main point people should consider is just the lack of effort kita has put into his arguments. You played in XXXVIII with me and kita db. When kita had a read on a situation in that game he fought for what he thought was right. He was actively working to get people he thought were scum lynched. This game how often have you seen kita actually fight to get who he thinks is the scummiest person lynched? He just posts his opinion then sits out and lets the town debate amongst themselves. Which is the perfect strategy for mafia since we have just been lynching townies. I agree, he's completely different. The fact that he is still alive this late in the game despite being EASILY the biggest threat to Mafia if town is ridiculous too. He pretty much single-handedly destroyed our Mafia team last game. The other factor to consider is that he is in PYP Insane, but he's shown he can be active. I sure as hell trust you more than any of the other remaining players. I will join with you good sir! | ||
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Should we talk about who we think the other one is or leave that until tomorrow? | ||
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On May 27 2011 00:36 kitaman27 wrote: Ya, elmizzt has been somewhat suspicious, but I wouldn't consider him for lynch until at least the next day cycle. AO and ilovejonn have been pretty silent. Mig, you haven't posted since the night cycle, have your opinions changed either way? I'm voting for ilovejonn for now, subject to change. They voted together yesterday incidentally. | ||
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On May 28 2011 10:37 kitaman27 wrote: Sigh I feel so old, I can't even stay up until 11 anymore now that I have started working -_- I'm thinking ilovejonn and elmizzt are the two remaining scum. If I don't survive the night, good luck town! | ||
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The fact that he's fingering elmizzt. But then again at this late point in the game it would be hard NOT to get one out of two. Alright fuck it Let's do this! | ||
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On May 28 2011 16:36 Mig wrote: Well assuming kita is mafia then if he gets the town to mislynch this game mafia win. So if he is confident he could convince us to lynch ilj then he can easily say elmizzit is suspicious without fear. Also in a way that protects him in case we do lynch elmizzit. If we did then he can say see I told you him and ilj are the last 2 to try and get us to lynch ilj with 3 left. For mafia to win they just need town to mislynch 1 time. They only need 1 of them to survive so no need for them to protect each other now. Alright done. Let's kill these motherfuckers. | ||
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On May 28 2011 17:36 elmizzt wrote: The remaining mafia are kita and dropbear. First off, i've been wanting to look away from ilj for a while. It's far too quiet for the last couple days for the AO/ilj train to be true. A sign that scum is happy with the way the situation is, and feels zero pressure to intervene. Luckily the AO lynch stirred things up a bit. Since it looks like with my vote on kita, we have a confirmed lynch for him, I won't discuss him as much, but mig's analysis of him is pretty good. However, Dropbear, seeing the game so close to a mafia victory, has gotten ridiculously sloppy. At this point, the scum strat is to bus kita for the cred for that 1 vital mislynch. Kita is pretty much dead after mig's post, and the zero resistance he or anyone put up. First, dropbear puts up a token defense of kita, really just milks it. Mig smashes it, as DB had expected. DB then builds rapport with an obvious townie, Mig: More sucking up to build trust. He gives validation to Mig's suspicions by saying he was "going to say elmizzt as well". I'd bet that if Mig had said he wanted to shoot ilj, DB's post would read " ya, I was going to say ilj as well" : The rest of his posts are just more pushing for Mig to solidify his suspicions. DB is waaay too overenthusiastic to just get it done. At this point in the game, where one mislynch spells the end of the game, rushing headlong into a lynch is not the best townie play. DB's whole attitude basically reads to me like scum smelling blood and getting overzealous. Lol. That first post wasn't a defence. It was clarifying something I didn't understand. Smelling blood? How does a scum person get really excited when they kill their own teammate? Plus look at my posts. I've been overexcited the entire game, not just about killing kita. I posted a scum team with 7 people on it in day 1 lol. I've been saying I trusted Mig for the last several days. I also posted a big analysis of you yesterday mate. You wanted to look away from ilovejonn? Why? | ||
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On May 28 2011 18:49 elmizzt wrote: 1. It completely was a defense. You questioned kita's actions as not mafia-like. Of course, it was extremely weak and obvious, but that was your intention. You just needed a quick post of any content to bus him with. 2. You get excited when you kill your own teammate because it gives you the necessary town-cred to influence the next game-winning lynch. 3. It was more than just the overexcitement. This is different. You're pushing hard to close the book on kita in order to gain the aforementioned town cred. 4. Nice. I trust mig too. 5. I already stated why I wanted to look away from ilj. In case it wasn't clear, the quietness when the focus was on ilj/ao speaks to mafia feeling comfortable enough that they have no need to intervene to influence town opinions. Therefore, it would follow that ilj looks towny. 1. I pointed out in the very same post you call a defence why it could be dodgy. 2 + 3. So what if I've been excited about killing kita? I've been excited the entire game lol. There have been many many times this game where I've been excited. So what? It's what I do. I made this after 2 months at TL. I made my first LR thread after only a couple of weeks and less than 100 posts. 4. Your trust for Mig has appeared today, on the last possible day. You haven't even mentioned Mig in a single one of your posts up until this point in the game.. Yet now he is an obvious townie? 5. On May 26 2011 08:10 elmizzt wrote: I spent about 2 hours last night poring over both their respective post histories, and I have no idea which I would prefer to lynch. Theyre both pretty equally scummy imo, and it doesn't help that their vote patterns are nearly identical. =/ I am probably just terrible at analysis I suppose based on forumite's semi-vouch for AO, I'd say ilj would be a better target for tonight. This post was yesterday. You've been wanting to bring things away for a while? Why didn't you? | ||
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I made this after 2 months at TL, not the post on page 88 | ||
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It's roleclaim time gents, even though everyone is probably going to say townie lol. I am Vanilla Townie. KITAMAN27 Self defence Part 1. On May 28 2011 22:54 kitaman27 wrote: This is untrue. I specifically remember asking in the thread "Is nobody going to switch over to impervious?" I then proceeded to repost my analysis of him. As for recent discussion, orgo and AO were dt checks. I'm not going to argue against dt checks. Conveniently, the town is pushing aside my attempt to point out AO's dt check and save him. Why would I try to give a townie a confirmed status when there are only 8 people remaining in the game? You were indeed quite specific about asking others to switch. Mig is incorrect here. On May 18 2011 11:31 kitaman27 wrote: Careful Mig, if only you switch then it becomes 4-4 with orgolove. If you switch, we need someone else to switch too. The only thing you say here that I take issue with is this: Is this what you mean by your Impervious analysis? You based the entire thing off 3 posts defending sinani. You didn't look at anything else he did really. Self defence part 2 Your defence of AO was pretty weak mate. You didn't really try that hard to convince us. On May 25 2011 11:50 kitaman27 wrote: Meh close enough to 11. This post makes me think he may have gotten checked. Back to sleep. On May 26 2011 07:59 kitaman27 wrote: Perhaps. though usually a dt will go out of their way with a red check, but only hint in the thread with a green check. There is also the 1/7 chance he is the godfather to consider, which would invalidate the check. I would be interested in hearing from elmizzit in particular about who he would rather see lynched today, elmizzit or ilovejonn. These are the only two things I can find. They aren't exactly convincing. I would also like you to explain the timing of your ilovejonn/jaminz analysis on Day 3, which you never answered Mig about. It came just as EM and sinani had become the major candidates, with sinani tying ilovejonn. | ||
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At this point as far as I'm concerned it's either kitaman27/elmizzt ilovejonn/elmizzt | ||
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Shoot! | ||
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You didn't vote until later on, once the only realistic candidates were EM and sinani. | ||
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On May 29 2011 14:04 Mig wrote: Ok first question I have is are you going to be online close to when the lynch happens tomorrow? Doesn't have to be super close but within a couple hours should be fine. 2nd if we assume that me and you are town then either ilj/kita is the 3rd town that means ilj/kita will vote for each other and the 2 of us must vote for the same person for town to win. So my question is if ilj either doesn't defend himself or I don't like his defense will you be willing to switch to him if I want to? Like even if you are leaning that kita is mafia would you switch if I wanted to? I know this question is hard to answer before we hear from ilj but it is important to my strategy tomorrow to know the answer to this. I'm 12 hours ahead of EST so 11pm is 11am for me. I'll be having an early night tonight to be up in time Um what? Kita hasn't even voted yet. He's waiting for others to make the first move, as he's done all game. We do have to vote together, yes. I trust you completely relative to the other three. I'm not just going to jump when you whistle though, you have to convince me we are making the right decision. | ||
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On May 29 2011 14:10 kitaman27 wrote: Like I said before, I voted later on when it was 7-5, making the lynch competitive again. If I were on the other side, then it would have been 8-4 and clearly out of reach. You posted analysis on someone else during day three that wasn't sinani or EM, but that doesn't necessarily make you scummy. Also let me remind you of this post when you started to question sinani being scum. K, what's your point? Why are you reminding me of this exactly? It came the next day. | ||
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On May 29 2011 14:15 kitaman27 wrote: The fact that I was trying to prevent a redirection of the sinani lynch rather than trying to save him. What are your thoughts about my analysis on jonn and elm? At this point pretty much everyone was trying to get sinani lynched (everyone still alive except me lol) it doesn't make you special at all. Elmizzt is dodgy as shit and I agree with all of it. Regardless of whether you or ilj are mafia he definitely is. There is of course the distinct possibility that he is bussing you to try and win on the last day. Ilovejonn, well it's either him or you. His voting history is atrocious and he hasn't helped much at all. I've found him suss since Day 1. On the other hand, I did a look through his history when I was preparing for XXXVIII and I found that he came under extreme suspicion pretty much single game and was never Mafia. Chaoser also decided to clear him. Orgolove indicted him and his top 4 had 2 confirmed townies on it plus me so I consider that an argument against. He has also been under intense pressure all game, I'd play poorly too if under the hammer every single time I post it would be stressful. | ||
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The other option is kill elmizzt and then rely on one of us to win tomorrow. Shotgun not me | ||
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Actually fuck it. Let's kill elmizzt. | ||
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What does ilj think about elmizzt? You haven't talked about him at all, just defended yourself. | ||
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Everyone thinks elmizzt is scum, probably even elmizzt. Lets kill him and make sure. You never know something wierd and funky could happen with the last nightkill. | ||
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On May 29 2011 17:40 elmizzt wrote: I don't really understand this, so if you could please clarify what the purpose of everyone roleclaiming would be, I'm interested to hear If everyone is forced to say what their role is it makes it slightly easier to show who's lying. From what I've read in old games it's standard practice when it gets to lategame. At this point, everyone thinks elmizzt is mafia yes? We aren't sure about the others. Why not just kill the one everyone thinks is mafia? We can handle the last day and you never know what info can come up if we go another day. We either take a punt on the potential gf now and have a 50/50 chance of losing today, or we kill elmizzt and go in with the same odds tomorrow with slightly more information. I don't see the point of risking everything on who the second Mafia is when we can get someone pretty much guaranteed today. | ||
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Mig, not voting for someone that you think is scum just for the sake of being in the game at the end is pointless. Everyone thinks elmizzt should die, regardless of whether it is today or tomorrow. So lets kill him!!! | ||
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Please be right | ||
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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO | ||
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On June 01 2011 11:03 orgolove wrote: In that order yo. After Dropbear convinced us of his town, I targeted ilovejonn. For. Days. If we flipped him, there'd be plenty more data to handle, and with more data, it would've been more accurate. But no. Sorry man. We should have listened to you. I got shitty cos I was at the top of the list. | ||
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