TL Mafia Idea Factory - Page 46

On October 01 2015 02:21 Blazinghand wrote:


Really? Cause my statement is that one should be hesitant, not "10v3 is unbalanced", which I think is a super reasonable statement. Like, one could definitely imagine blue roles that hurt town, and sure, it's possible Blue roles hurt town as much as they help, but most people act as though Blue roles actually help town. Given that this is the case, I don't think it's a good idea to jump right ahead and say "10v3 vanilla is balanced". I'm hesitant about this.

Do you actually disagree?

On October 01 2015 19:12 DarthPunk wrote:
If a cop + medic 10v3 setup is balanced (which are both very strong roles that help town) then a 10v3 vanilla is clearly not balanced.

It all depends on the expected value you consider these two roles to hold.

If there was a game where town could choose to trade in their cop and medic roles to insta-kill one scum at the start. Would you do it? I don't think I would. Because I believe the Expected Value of the Cop and the Medic over the course of the game to be higher than the one less scum at the start.

There are a couple of reasons for this.

1.) Cops clear suspicious townies throughout the course of a game as well as detect scum. This makes it far easier to solve the game through PoE later on, this also drastically reduces the effect of poor townies on the game.

2.) Medics can save the strong townies and gives the towns stronger analysts more time to lynch correctly one more day for a strong player to solve the game is worth much more to me than several days of terrible/inactive townies not solving the game.

Basically the exact numbers for All Vanilla still comes down to how much expected value you assign to blue roles. But saying 10v3 vanilla is a balanced setup is just flat out wrong IMO.

The mafia scum wiki actually states that many believe that 11-2 is unbalanced for town and they have run many more of these types of games than we have at TL. This is the only kind of observational evidence that exists and is therefore more valuable than conjecture or statistics based on (i'm assuming) small and incomplete datasets.

On October 01 2015 20:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like some guy tried to tell me on 2p2 (some of their top people) that 16v2 all vanilla is the most blanced setup.

I can't understand how someone can EVER lose 16v2 as town against ANY mafia team even if you have five "retarded townies"...

On October 01 2015 03:34 Fidei86 wrote:
On an unrelated note, I ran a game of Resistance on Voice a few nights ago, and it went quite well. Would there be any enthusiasm / would I be allowed to run full forum game?

On October 01 2015 00:00 Palmar wrote:
well just the fact you did that is pretty cool.

And yeah, I agree that vanilla is boring and it's extremely punishing if one dude on your team is being a shithead.

On October 01 2015 20:27 justanothertownie wrote:

I think most people here are MASSIVELY overvaluing blue roles. Sure, on average they probably help. Which is why a 10v3 Vanilla setup maybe slightly mafia favored compared to the generally slightly to strongly townfavored (depending on the host) 10v3 setups with blue roles. Still having possible blue roles in the game is NOT always a disadvantage for scum at all. Especially since there are almost always scum powerroles to balance the town ones.

I really do not care what mafia scum wiki says. 11v2 is never balanced if you play with even a few semi-competent town players.
Like I said, 10v3 might be slightly scumfavored but an exact 50:50 setup probably doesn't exist and it is for sure much fairer than 11v2.
And if you aren't completely ignoring that in a setup on TL you can almost never 100 % trust a copcheck not only because the claim could be fake but also because there are multiple ways a checks result can be interfered with your argument suddenly becomes much much weaker for example.

On October 02 2015 05:56 Rels wrote:

the idea actually is to have a high skill game, with players wanting to take the time and try to out arguee each other
that's why I liked the idea of no roles: no fakeclaiming, no medic dodge so people knows the mafia decided to guy that one guy on purpose
maybe 10v3 one cop is better than 10v3 all vanilla though. Will think about that

On October 01 2015 22:02 Artanis[Xp] wrote:

I wonder what the odds are for town winning if they don't even bother and just randomly lynch someone each day.

On October 01 2015 03:34 Fidei86 wrote:
On an unrelated note, I ran a game of Resistance on Voice a few nights ago, and it went quite well. Would there be any enthusiasm / would I be allowed to run full forum game?

On October 02 2015 06:56 Tictock wrote:


I'm not sure how to calculate this exactly but pretty bad odds when you consider that town's odds of randomly lynching scum never get better than about 40% on a given day. Getting scum multiple days in a row is about 4% at the start of the game. Even after several mislynches, say 3v4 after 3 town lynches, town has about a 17% chance of getting scum back to back, but the odds of town recovering that game through RNG (3 scum in a row) fall back down to 5 or 6%.

I only ran a few numbers for a 10v3 setup, pretty clear odds would be worse for a 16v2.

The only real town win scenario I looked at was a perfect town game, which would be a .5% chance. Mafia has a slightly better chance to get a perfect RNG game with a .9% chance. Clearly neither of those are very realistic.

I'm sure there's a better formula to use to see what the odds are of town getting 3 scum lynches before 4 town lynches ( or 2 scum before 7 town in the 16v2 setup) but I'm already pushing my math abilities here a little.

On October 02 2015 12:10 Blazinghand wrote:


The field of math you're looking for is called combinatorics, but it's worth bearing in mind that (despite my pleas) town rarely lynches randomly

On October 01 2015 22:02 Artanis[Xp] wrote:

I wonder what the odds are for town winning if they don't even bother and just randomly lynch someone each day.

On October 01 2015 20:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like some guy tried to tell me on 2p2 (some of their top people) that 16v2 all vanilla is the most blanced setup.

I can't understand how someone can EVER lose 16v2 as town against ANY mafia team even if you have five "retarded townies"...