EPTSleeper Cell Mafia
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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On April 13 2011 05:40 Lanaia wrote: igrok, do you think this will start within the next three weeks? I think it's supposed to start when XXXVIII finishes. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Also, what's the restriction on five words, for example, can you send string of letters/numbers, like AHOJOSFZOBKFJAKBAJJKBKNO, like a cipher, and then send the key to solve it, or does that break the rule? Also, I'm assuming you can't actually send names (of ANY player), just breadcrumbs? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Are you the bus driver? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Welcome to Sleeper Cell Mafia you are the Empath and are the bane of all psychic users. Your goal is to hunt down the Communist Mind Disruptor and the Communist Psychic Ravager, and have been trained specifically to combat psychic threats. 1) Psychic Barrier: After years of training, your mind has become an impenetrable fortress, rendering you immune to all psychic effects. 2) Nerve Gas: This is an experimental gas, which disrupts the pathways in the brain conducive to psychic abilities. Each day, you may ##Gas one player, permanently disabling any psychic abilities they may have. 3) Silenced Pistol: They may have psychic powers, but they aren't bullet-proof! Each day you may ##Shoot one player, killing them. So I'm immune to your protection and it will fail, sorry GM. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
I think something we should watch out for is people trying to manipulate or send messages to scum about how to act, as that will help us pick out the GF. As soon as a few scum start popping up, we should be able to draw connections between them and other players, and hopefully find a common point in the GF. The hard part will be when we kill the GF, because then a new one is selected. When that happens we have to be careful to observe who is changing their behavior towards other players unexpectedly, because this could be a sign of the new GF who suddenly has all the other agent names. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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On April 25 2011 14:32 Ace wrote: eh how? The point of bread crumbs is to prove something before it happens via hidden clues. So how in the world is that going to help us find the Cell Leader? I'm just thinking we can look for things that are people trying to direct mafia. We can assume that the GF is going to find a way to make himself known to his agents. This is why stuff like: On April 25 2011 15:04 darmousseh wrote: Vain, I hope you aren't a dt because that is the most obvious blue tell ever in my opinion. Looks somewhat scummy to me because of: On April 25 2011 11:53 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Keep in mind that scum can kill scum as well. I think something we should watch out for is people trying to manipulate or send messages to scum about how to act, as that will help us pick out the GF. As soon as a few scum start popping up, we should be able to draw connections between them and other players, and hopefully find a common point in the GF. The hard part will be when we kill the GF, because then a new one is selected. When that happens we have to be careful to observe who is changing their behavior towards other players unexpectedly, because this could be a sign of the new GF who suddenly has all the other agent names. Say Darm is scum, this could be him posting a potential hit target for the other cell members, in saying who he thinks is blue. As a general rule, I don't think people should point out who they think is blue or not. If they do an analysis, and figure someone is blue, they can just as easily call them town to protect them from sniping. On April 26 2011 00:08 GMarshal wrote: Also I suppose its time I started generating discussion. ##Unvote ##Vote: Mr.Wiggles do you know why I'm voting for you Mr.Wiggles? Well, pressure doesn't work very well when the person isn't around to see it. :p I think you're voting for me because I made a couple posts, went to bed, and have been at school until just recently, so it looks like I'm lurking/inactive. This isn't really the case, I'm reading the thread, just a lot of my reactions and ideas will be delayed and concentrated in a few posts instead of all over until two days from now. That, or you think one of my ideas is scummy, but I just pointed out what I mean by leading the cell and breadcrumbs if that's the one you're worried about. As for breadcrumbs, you can look for people posting odd things, pictures, rhymes, ciphers, etc. Changing their signature and/or profile, writing things with the first words of every sentence or every line, stuff like that. It might be clever for scum to try, but I'm not going to obsess over it. I'm just saying that if there's something super apparent, it could easily be a mafia breadcrumb. Now, to answer Ace. My three picks (with reasoning and follow-up) would go: 1. Ace. He's an experienced player and has a reputation as a good analyzer/arguer. 2. GMarshal. I have experience playing games with him, and think he's a good all-around player. 3. Jackal58. He tunnels a lot, and is a very aggressive poster. It would be good to get him in the know so I could use that to my advantage, and to avoid friendly fire. Message: "Follow PI Bear, Profile" 19 characters, 4 words. All they'd have to do is look into my profile, and see the picture I have there right now, as well as the first joke sentence underneath, "Hi, I'm Mr. Wiggles the Detective Bear! No matter the type of grisly discovery, I'll always be first on the scene! I've barely been stumped in my entire career!". This would easily alert them to my identity. The next thing I would do, is at some point, either post a scumlist that contains all of the sleeper agents, +/-1, or a scumlist that contains none of them +/-1. I would be sure not to provide much reasoning, and play down it's importance, so that no one would take it too seriously. I'd then hope the one's I've contacted would be smart enough to figure out that if they're on it, others are, or if they're not on it, no one else is, as they know I'm the Cell Leader, and must be up to something. Follow up messages would be: "PI Bear, Profile, List (or else Not List)" to notify everyone within the shortest amount of time of who I am, and to look at the list, or not at the list. As for activity: We have to keep in mind that certain events in-thread will change activity levels, as well as real-life constraints. For example, I'm not going to have a ton of posts for the next 48 hours, because of my 3 exams coming up. So, in your system (Jackal), I'd look very suspicious, because following that time-line, I'd start to be active right as Day 2 begins, meaning I must have been contacted if I were an Agent. As well, as soon as people begin debating things more, and information becomes revealed, there's probably going to be a lot more posting. I think a good way to counter-act this is just the old-fashioned way, by looking at who's pushing plans that have the most benefit to the agents/leader, and who's arguing against plans that would harm them. However, I still feel that there's going to be at least some agents among any lurkers in the game, but there will still be some among the most active players, just as normal. I don't think activity is the greatest indicator of scumminess, but rather behaviour. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On April 26 2011 07:45 Impervious wrote: It is doable in 5 words..... Regardless of how many members are on the team..... Also, keep in mind there's a 20 character limit, that's why I'm curious as to how you would let them know the entirety of the team in one message. Don't tell me though, in case the GF doesn't know either. :p | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On April 27 2011 00:26 GMarshal wrote: Jackal, I like your accusation, however I would leave tnkted alone for now as if he has a weird role as he claims the mafia is much more likely to hit him, I would much, much rather hit someone who isn't posting or is lurking, trying to avoid attention. I propose Eiii who has yet to contribute anything at all. To me, in this setting its a huge tell as it reeks of scum waiting to be contacted by the cell leader. I would be happy to hit any of the other lurkers though, e.g. Kenpachi. Also I am getting a weird vibe from Mr.Wiggles taking a quick look at his posts + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 11:53 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Keep in mind that scum can kill scum as well. I think something we should watch out for is people trying to manipulate or send messages to scum about how to act, as that will help us pick out the GF. As soon as a few scum start popping up, we should be able to draw connections between them and other players, and hopefully find a common point in the GF. The hard part will be when we kill the GF, because then a new one is selected. When that happens we have to be careful to observe who is changing their behavior towards other players unexpectedly, because this could be a sign of the new GF who suddenly has all the other agent names. I think this is making an obvious post in alot of words, I'm not sure its FoS worthy, as alot of this type of posting is going on, but it set off my radar On April 25 2011 12:29 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Of course scum-hunting is going to be the best way to find scum, but breadcrumbs are also a good way of finding out the cell leader. It looks like he can only send one PM to one of his people per morning/evening, which means that he's going to have to find a way to get information out to them otherwise, or else he'll have no way to contact more than a couple of them. We can't really rely on the connections between players in this game, so if someone starts acting weird after PM time, maybe they're scum. Also, when we kill the GF, we can go back and look at who he was trying to direct, and who he was paying special attention to, and how. interestingly enough its a repetition of a previous post, it says the evident "scum hunting is how we find scum" but still encourages us to look for breadcrumbs. I like the comment on the GF but the rest of the post seems like filler trying to look like something is being added, again, not enough to make me yell "scum" but its making my gut uncomfortable, this is the real reason I put a pressure vote on wiggles, rather than inactive he seemed to me to be lurking On April 26 2011 07:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I'm just thinking we can look for things that are people trying to direct mafia. We can assume that the GF is going to find a way to make himself known to his agents. This is why stuff like: Looks somewhat scummy to me because of: Say Darm is scum, this could be him posting a potential hit target for the other cell members, in saying who he thinks is blue. As a general rule, I don't think people should point out who they think is blue or not. If they do an analysis, and figure someone is blue, they can just as easily call them town to protect them from sniping. I *really* like this point, I though it was evident as well, but it merits pointing out and wiggles gets a town point from me for making this point, as it warrants saying, on the other hand though it makes it obvious for any scum that missed it, which was my reason for leaving it there and hoping it stayed buried. Well, pressure doesn't work very well when the person isn't around to see it. :p I think you're voting for me because I made a couple posts, went to bed, and have been at school until just recently, so it looks like I'm lurking/inactive. This isn't really the case, I'm reading the thread, just a lot of my reactions and ideas will be delayed and concentrated in a few posts instead of all over until two days from now. That, or you think one of my ideas is scummy, but I just pointed out what I mean by leading the cell and breadcrumbs if that's the one you're worried about. This is actually the reaction I would expect from a town player, if wiggles were scum I would expect a more panicked reaction, its not a very solid tell but it partially assuages the churning in my stomach that his earlier posts caused As for breadcrumbs, you can look for people posting odd things, pictures, rhymes, ciphers, etc. Changing their signature and/or profile, writing things with the first words of every sentence or every line, stuff like that. It might be clever for scum to try, but I'm not going to obsess over it. I'm just saying that if there's something super apparent, it could easily be a mafia breadcrumb. I think this paragraph is redundant, no mafia is going to outright post a cypher or a easy breadcrumb like the first word of every sentence/line (and yes, I am checking for that) Now, to answer Ace. My three picks (with reasoning and follow-up) would go: 1. Ace. He's an experienced player and has a reputation as a good analyzer/arguer. 2. GMarshal. I have experience playing games with him, and think he's a good all-around player. 3. Jackal58. He tunnels a lot, and is a very aggressive poster. It would be good to get him in the know so I could use that to my advantage, and to avoid friendly fire. Message: "Follow PI Bear, Profile" 19 characters, 4 words. All they'd have to do is look into my profile, and see the picture I have there right now, as well as the first joke sentence underneath, "Hi, I'm Mr. Wiggles the Detective Bear! No matter the type of grisly discovery, I'll always be first on the scene! I've barely been stumped in my entire career!". This would easily alert them to my identity. This part triggers my gut once again, as its thought out way in depth, it also spells out what a non-obvious message means, which in my mind is explaining it to any of his scumbuddies to whom he might have sent the message. I'm not willing to FoS based on that but it makes me more uneasy The next thing I would do, is at some point, either post a scumlist that contains all of the sleeper agents, +/-1, or a scumlist that contains none of them +/-1. I would be sure not to provide much reasoning, and play down it's importance, so that no one would take it too seriously. I'd then hope the one's I've contacted would be smart enough to figure out that if they're on it, others are, or if they're not on it, no one else is, as they know I'm the Cell Leader, and must be up to something. Again detailing his plan in detail and also including how he is going to be communicating with his buddies if he is scum. If wiggles ever posts a scumlist I'd be interested to see the alignment of some of its members, as its possible wiggles has just detailed his plan so his buddies can see it. Again, it could be that wiggles has thought this out in depth, which is good, or it could be he is scum. Its not a tell for me either way, but it does make me decidedly uneasy Follow up messages would be: "PI Bear, Profile, List (or else Not List)" to notify everyone within the shortest amount of time of who I am, and to look at the list, or not at the list. Its a long post, so my comments in bold inside the quote Verdict: Keep your eyes peeled for wiggles, something about him seems off to me. FoS A couple comments on that: Any scum reading the thread is going to have noticed what Darmo said, and that's why I pointed it out. I'd rather rely on the assumption my opponents are going to notice things rather than the assumption they'll just skim past stuff, so that's why I pointed it out as scummy instead of letting it slide, and asked for it to not happen again. Have a good reason if you need to call someone Blue. Also, this is WIFOM, but I wouldn't have posted that whole explanation if I were actually the Cell Leader. People would be smart enough to figure out Private Investigator Bear, Profile without an explanation. As well, Ace didn't ask for anything more, but I thought it might help trying to figure out what CL would do. The whole point of the list, would be people would dismiss it, because it wouldn't have any analysis behind it, but the Cell members would be able to figure it out that that's the member list if they knew I were leader. By posting this, now people can't just make stand-alone scum lists like that, because people have been made aware of this possibility, and so they will be scrutinized. i.e. anyone making a "scum-list" that has nothing but names is going to be looked at pretty closely, in case they're doing what I outlined. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On April 27 2011 02:42 Zorkmid wrote: He basically claims that he isn't ANY of the listed roles IMO. Which means he's Blue/Red, doesn't say anything definitive about his alignment. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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##Vote: Darmousseh Good night! :p (And thanks for the birthday wishes!) | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles: People think I'm suspicious cause of GMarshal's analysis, popular demand. Ace: Experienced player, supposedly God-like Scum, role mechanics would help us know his alignment better and most importantly sooner. GMarshal: Playing similar to the way he did in XXXVIII, where he was scum. Acted mostly pro-town and made an analysis there of me on Day 1 too. Both times now, the analysis hasn't make a strong case and just ended up saying: "IGMEOY Wiggles! FOS!". So a DT check because of the similarities. Darmousseh: Lurking hardcore, hasn't contributed. Saying "I'm town, don't lynch me" in his first post and pointing out blues in others doesn't make him seem particularly green to me. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
Just a thought too, as the game progresses, scum are going to become a lot more coherent. They still won't have the ability to PM each other or communicate during the day though, but they will know who each other are, and who the Cell Leader is. What I think this means, is that starting Day 2, we need to be on the lookout for people pushing plans early and other people supporting it early. Scum can't communicate throughout the day, so the Cell leader will probably plan something in a PM during the morning, or else one scum member will push for a plan early on and hope to get the others to support him. Scum need to make their move earlier than later, and will be the most organized right as the day is beginning. As new developments pop up, scum won't be able to deal with them as a team, and will act a lot more fragmented. As such, the more town can pull together and blindside scum better, as they won't be able to actively deal with it as a team. So look for scummy people jumping to support plans early on, and look for things that look like odd amounts of organization. Also, when new game-changing information pops up, look for people who start to act differently than they were, or who don't seem to react to it and stay stuck in what they were doing before. I think this can show us scum who are freaking out because there's no communication with their team, or scum who don't know what to do because they have no one to direct them. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Firstly, GM decided not to shoot last night. This is a little surprising to me given his vigilante list, that he didn't decide to shoot a lurker off it himself. I guess he figured that he would live long enough to pick a better target and just wanted to apply pressure with it. That said, I'd look at people on his vig list a little bit more, so: Eii, GGQ, why, Vain, darm. These are the people who would have felt threatened by GM because he wanted them dead. The DT list is also somewhere you could look, but to a lesser extent, because saying you want someone to die is more pressure than saying you want someone to get checked, one of those situations isn't salvageable. I'm little surprised that Ace is still alive too, but I don't think that is a good reason to call him scum. All game long, people have been touting him as some kind of mafia forum hero, so it would make sense that scum would want to kill him right away, right? Not necessarily. If we look at the vote last night, there was a lot of fragmentation, so one can assume that the cell kill vote would look similar, with a lot of division. Because of this, I don't think it would take much more than something like three or so cell members feeling threatened by GM and voting for him for him to become their kill. GM was doing "analysis", pushing plans, being active, and in general trying to get information out there. He acted pro-town, and now he's dead. Ace on the other hand, didn't do much Day 1 besides his list thing, and so probably didn't seem as much of an imminent threat to the cell. So, I don't think it's that scum thinks he's scum, just that GM was posing a more realistic threat at the end of Day 1. I don't know if anyone remembered this or not: On April 28 2011 07:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Also, my activity tomorrow should probably increase as I just finished my last three exams over the last couple days and don't need to study anymore. Just a thought too, as the game progresses, scum are going to become a lot more coherent. They still won't have the ability to PM each other or communicate during the day though, but they will know who each other are, and who the Cell Leader is. What I think this means, is that starting Day 2, we need to be on the lookout for people pushing plans early and other people supporting it early. Scum can't communicate throughout the day, so the Cell leader will probably plan something in a PM during the morning, or else one scum member will push for a plan early on and hope to get the others to support him. Scum need to make their move earlier than later, and will be the most organized right as the day is beginning. As new developments pop up, scum won't be able to deal with them as a team, and will act a lot more fragmented. As such, the more town can pull together and blindside scum better, as they won't be able to actively deal with it as a team. So look for scummy people jumping to support plans early on, and look for things that look like odd amounts of organization. Also, when new game-changing information pops up, look for people who start to act differently than they were, or who don't seem to react to it and stay stuck in what they were doing before. I think this can show us scum who are freaking out because there's no communication with their team, or scum who don't know what to do because they have no one to direct them. why wasn't around much on Day 1, and he didn't give any sort of explanation for it until recently. Now on day 2, he shows up, and right away pushes a lynch for Ace before any other discussion has even commenced. This seems reminiscent of the bolded parts from my post. Also, why dropping Jackal completely in favor of Ace seems a little odd to me. Then add on to this that he was on GM's vig list and is giving bad reasons for scum kill choice: ##FOS: why | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On April 29 2011 06:23 Jackal58 wrote: On the vig issue. GM may have decided to not shoot after I reminded him of scums win condition. Town has to be out of players with guns. So GMs loss is really quite significant to us. I guess. It's only relevant though if we get in a situation where it's something like 3 town, 3 scum. Other than that, the no gun rules doesn't really have much impact on the game, because if scum outnumbers town, it's going to be pretty much impossible to win anyways. That also doesn't make sense for why he didn't shoot though. If he thought that one of the players in his vig list were an Intelligence Agent, why would he have put them in there anyways, in case a third agent shot into them? My only explanation is that he thought that he could save his shot, and use it at a different time when the chance of his target being scum was higher. I made a mistake reading the OP when I made that post, because I didn't realize that vigs only get to shoot once. Trying to save his shot in case we get into a situation where town is outnumbered by scum instead of shooting who he thinks is scum isn't a great plan though, it seems to unlikely for it to happen and for town to scrape a win after that. Better to just shoot when you think you have a good target. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On April 29 2011 06:39 VarpuliS wrote: Hi guys! iGrok will probably release this in a few minutes, but I'm replacing in for why. All suspicion should now be transferred to me.  I've only sort of been following this game, so I'll need to read through. Could somebody explain to me why i'm scummy? You made four posts day 1, then right as day 2 starts, you jump right into trying to lynch Ace forgoing Jackal who you voted for day 1. You were also on GM's vig list, and that makes me want to watch you more closely, because GM died, and the scum voting for him obviously felt pressured by him or thought he was an asset to town, the vig list being those he most pressured. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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No, it was my birthday a couple days ago, and I got a mech keyboard, and blue switches are really fun to type on. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Firstly, you call Jackal the Cell Leader without even considering the possibility that there's a 25% chance that he would show up as "Insufficient" if he were anything else. Alright initially I was just going to give an analysis and link reasons as to why Jackal was Cell Leader, but the evidence is so damning, that I figured it would be pointless to hide my identity as I become an obvious target once Jackal pops. I am an INTELLIGENCE ANALYST. Right away you assume that he is the Cell Leader, and decide to make a bad claim rather than just push an analysis. Let me explain why I think it's a bad claim and that you might be lying. Let's imagine you are a DT, and you checked Jackal, and got an "insufficient for analysis". You would then decide to build a case against him so that you can try to get him lynched. If you don't claim: -You make a case, if it's strong, you get him lynched. -If he flips red, you might survive the night if scum hit someone else instead cause they just think you're a green who analyzed -If he flips town, you were wrong and it was RNG. People will be suspicious of you, but you'll most likely survive the night If you claim: -You make a case with a claim, Jackal gets lynched -If he flips red, you die, scum know who you are -If he flips town, you die, scum know who you are It does not make sense to claim here. By claiming, you assure scum will hit you 100% rather than having any chance to live by not claiming. You also received an insufficient for analysis, not a Red return, so that even makes a claim weaker, because there's a chance you got the return on a town anyways, it's not a sure thing. So, I think you're claim can be fake for two reasons. 1. You don't mention the probability of it being wrong, so that makes me think that you just forgot about it. A real DT would keep in mind that there's RNG for everyone, and that doesn't just happen for the GF. By forgetting to even mention that until later when someone else brings it up, it makes me believe that you forgot about it in the first place, i.e. you might not be a DT. 2. The claim makes no sense. You say you claimed because you would have died anyways. That only makes sense again, if you think that the ONLY person who brings back "insufficient" is GF and not anyone else. If you were DT, and Jackal flips green, scum wouldn't hit you. If he flipped red, then you're not as likely to live, but they might let you if they're trying to snipe blues or something. Claiming makes it a 100% chance that you would die. Now, all your "breadcrumb" things are terrible and a null-tell. It makes no sense for scum to try to breadcrumb into the thread unless it's to direct other scum and communicate plans. Crumbing in the thread to identify yourself in PM is just stupid. So you're saying that Jackal bread crumbed about driving, and my birthday, instead of just saying, "I'm OPEC, clues and puzzles", "Steelers, profile", "Ilich Ramírez Sánchez, wiki", which would be easily recognizable as being him? Then the thing about my birthday isn't a tell either. It's normal when it's someone's birthday, to say, "Happy Birthday". As well, you missed Vain wishing me one later, so was that him just picking up on the crumb later? You're looking too far into that, unless you think Vain, Ace, and Jackal are all scum breadcrumbing, and tack was just an innocent bystander. You also say that you don't want to analyze Jackal, because: I don't really feel I need to make a huge in-depth analysis on his behavior, since it will not be strongest point, even if I was 10x the analyzer. To summarize what I make of jackal's posts, I will only to briefly skim them, even if he has a lot. Right here, you say, "Jackal doesn't look like scum from his posting". You're relying on your supposed "DT information", to be the decider for his lynch. However, if you were a DT, you would look at your result and then go over his posts. If he didn't look scummy to you, you would decide that it was RNG. Just claiming, without strong analysis, with the chance that he's town, is just bad play. I think you're smarter than that and would think things through if you were a DT. So, I think you're lying. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On April 29 2011 14:52 bumatlarge wrote: I didn't take it into consideration, because I believe I found his breadcrumbs, and a decent composition of jackal's general behavior. Again, he doesn't need to lay public breadcrumbs. Because I've based it on the insufficient and the breadcrumbs. He isn't anything else. He's CL. I still think the "breadcrumbs" are worthless. I'm sold on Jackal being the CL. I don't really have a doubt in my mind that he couldn't be. I've found everything I was looking for with his posts, a scum who knows who the other scum are, and is trying to clue them in. I claimed because it's easier then pushing town onto your analysis. I know its sounds lazy, but I got a blue role, and im not gonna take the 1% chance scum doesnt hit me and get another check. This way I skimp on really pointing out exactly how scummy jackal is, when I can just add in "Oh aside from the analysis I did, there is a 75% chance he's CL and 25% he aint, not taking analysis into account." Sorry, I'm busy, gonna take the easy road There isn't a 75% chance he's CL, it's about 1/5 strictly based on probability. Also, where is he "trying to clue people in"? If I'm wrong, which I really feel I am not, Scum will not hit me, I will give you a confirmed town or confirmed scum if you lynch me. 7% of that happening? Well that is higher then how I feel on jackal so according to you it will happen. So I'm not taking it into account. I've added too many factors that conclude it is right, and I have a back-up on the less then 1% I am wrong. That's how I feel, so yes I guess I would forget about that. What are you talking about, scum won't hit you? You just claimed that you're a DT, so now you're saying that if Jackal is green cause of RNG scum will just give you another free check? Also, what are all these percentages? Less then 1%. Thats how I feel. Doesn't matter what other people think, it was my assessment to make, and my claim to make. He is not a sleeper agent. He is Cell Leader. If he is sleeper agent, I would suggest town treat it no different then as if he popped town. This has nothing to do with what other people think, and I don't get why you're bringing it up. It has to do that you have a whole lot of a better chance to live until the next day by not claiming. By claiming, you're signing your own death certificate in a game with no medics and where scum are going to go for obvious targets. CarTrip, is much shorter, where he could add in "hpyBday" Then it allows for more letters, and I think he's successfully shed some light for scum. I'm treating the happy birthday thing as a funny little sidenote. I thought you would just shrug it off, but I'll take note of your concern I connected ace and jackal from other things.Why does length matter? OPEC is shorter than any of those for example, arguing about that is pointless. What I'm trying to say, is do you think that the Cell Leader would try to put public breadcrumbs in his posts instead of just referring to something in his profile or signature? What's the advantage? If that's what your analysis is based on, then maybe you're the Cell Leader because you wrote "batman" in your hello post and varp called you batman later. See how your examples of breadcrumbs can just be cherry-picked? And where the fuck do I say he isn't scummy? I say the breadcrumbs+the insufficient are plenty to convince me. I don't really need to his behavior to convict him, but it worked out that way in the end once you read his posts. DID YOU READ THE ANALYSIS, I WENT OVER HIS POSTS. I skimmed then and said I got the gist of his Cell Leader posts, because if I read everything he posted on that and made a comment on each I would still be writing the analysis. NOT ME SORRY LOL. And its my supposed DT info and the crumbs! Without the crumbs then you're right its just a 75% guess and a happy birthday. (which it isnt READ IT AGAIN FFFF) Disregarding my analysis because I say my information (and crumbs) are stronger is obnoxiously scummy of you wiggles. You say your analysis is weak, and use that as an excuse for not pushing any analysis. Your "analysis", as it stands, is "Jackal talks a lot about the cell leader and breadcrumbs". The rest is the "relationships" he has with others IF he were the Cell Leader, and the "breadcrumbs". You're begging the question, you have to show through your analysis why he can be the cell leader, not say he's the cell leader and go from there. To me, the crumbs mean nothing, and I need more convincing than "he talks about cell leader" and a 22% chance if you're telling the truth. That's why I'd like to see analysis, not a claim that doesn't make any sense. You thought wrong sir. Thanks for making me take actual note of you. Would you have still responded the same way if I didn't include you? Yes I would, because whether you include me or not, your claim makes no sense, and lynching someone off of "breadcrumbs" that just seem to be cherry picked isn't good enough for me. Someone aside from the magnificent three care to call me a blatant liar? Also, a tiny little smidge of a note, it's definitely not the end of the world for scum if they get the wrong assumption from a message. Hypothetically, if the HpyBDay was a crumb, and tackster was alive and wiggles/ace thought he was scum for some reason, that most likely will not effect the scheme of things. There are only a handful of situations involving tackser claiming or jackal contradicting himself. Both of which would be hilarious. If you think I'm scum now, I'd like it if you came out and said it, not talked around me. You still haven't given me ONE good reason why any cell leader would try to write things into his posts so that he could get caught for it rather than just refer to something in his profile. Also, I'm not even sure who you're asking us to lynch? | ||
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You're getting angry and throwing around accusations instead of answering any of my questions or addressing my points. EVERYONE talked about Cell leader and breadcrumbs on day 1, the only thing I find suspicious is Jackal pushing for whoever to explain his method of crumbing, so what else sets him apart? WHY would you claim, it doesn't help town, and it doesn't help you, so why? This pisses me off more than anything, because we lose a blue role for sure now if you're telling the truth. HOW CAN YOU BE SURE, that driving is a breadcrumb? At that point, you can go back in the thread and just construe talking about anything non-game related to be a scum tell, so what makes it particularly telling? just that he mentioned it three times?. I can't even understand half of what you say when you reply to me, but all I want is just to get to the bottom of things and address questions instead of sheeping and following blue claims without a thought. Your replies don't help put me at ease though, because you just go off on tangents and repeat yourself instead of discuss. Right now, there's a about 8 people lurking, and the scum among them are just LOVING this, because it gives them cover to not do anything. Day ends in less than 24 hours, and the only people talking are me, you, ace, and san. Jackal made some posts, and why pushed for a lynch at the beginning of the day and then disappeared. Everyone else is invisible. | ||
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On April 30 2011 00:53 Impervious wrote: Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity? If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas..... I was thinking about if we should lynch either Jackal or Bum, but realized, that whichever we choose, we get NO information about the other's alignment that we don't have already. This is why, I find his claim so blatantly bad, coming from only one result, and from an "insufficient". -If Jackal flips green, then Bum could or could not be the detective still. -If Jackal flips red, then Bum could be or not be the detective still -If Jackal flips Cell Leader, this makes Bum look more town, but still doesn't say whether he's a DT or not, because this result isn't based off a check, it's based off suspicion. -Bum flips Blue, then Jackal still could be or not be town, because the check was inconclusive -Bum flips red, Jackal looks more town, still WIFOM for it being a bus The only situation that lets us know the alignment of the surviving player better is IF Jackal flips cell leader, because then we only need to figure out the probability of it being a bus. So, we can't lynch for information. We have to lynch who we think is scummiest, because the flip won't tell us much about the alignment of the other one. What this is like, is if it were a normal game and 4 greens remained with one GF who shows up green to checks. So you check a player and he shows up green, and then you claim DT and say that the green check means that he's GF and you build an analysis from the starting point that he's GF. It just isn't convincing, and doesn't make sense. In this game, at least on a red return, we could check if he's lying or not, because there's no framer that we know about. On multiple returns, say if he claimed day 3, we would be able to cross-check the players. All he'd have to do, is 1 minute before the day post, say I'm DT, I checked these people, and give the alignment of the one you know, in case one or both of them was killed by scum that night. After two checks, he should at least have one full return, most likely. | ||
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On April 30 2011 04:33 bumatlarge wrote: Because I'm hypothetically 100% correct! (and jackal is CL) Though I am confused about tnkted, what the balls dude? Even if we both heavily suspect Ace, jackal or myself needs to be lynched so we can sort this out ASAP. I really don't see how you can make Ace out to be scum but thinking jackal is town at the same time. Lynching you or Jackal sorts out nothing, really. Also, can you answer my questions? | ||
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If he pops DT, we shoot Jackal on the 25% chance that he's the Cell Leader. He's claimed green already, so his death isn't a giant loss if he's not Cell Leader besides just what he brings to the table as a player. We can discuss this more after the lynch though. If Bum pops scum, then I'm going to heavily suggest a real DT check on Ace, as well as increased scrutiny on GM's vig list, because of this post: On April 27 2011 23:39 Zorkmid wrote: Let's wait and see if Ace is still alive tomorrow before we waste a check on him. It will take us a long time to determine whether we have a medic or not, as no sane person with a sense of self preservation dares claim. GM, I'm thinking that your Vigi list should be more for DT checks. I'm not sold on first night shootings for vigis, as they can be oh so valuable later on. ##Vote: Bum | ||
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I'd be ok with lynching why/darm right now, if we want to keep bum alive in case he's telling the truth. The only problem, is if he lives tomorrow, we're in the same spot we are today regarding the lynch. The difference would be he'd have another "result", which may or may not be to our benefit, depending on his alignment. At that point, he could be bussing someone, or he could be telling the truth, or he could just say "insufficient" again. It's really easy to fake, and it's hard to figure out if it's true or not. | ||
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Also, for your proposed lynch list, I'm supposed to lynch either A) Myself B) Jackal that doesn't give us any information about you. If it's not you being lynched, I'd rather wait until you have a solid check we can lynch to try to confirm you. C) Ace, who I think is mostly town, but would like to see a check on anyways. Also one of the only active people. I also don't get why you thought it was a good idea to try to draw fire off of tnkted. You don't know if he's blue, he still hasn't role-claimed and is pretty much lurking, and even if he's blue, you don't know what his role is. Maybe he's a vet or something and wants to get hit, did you ever think of that? Regardless, you just screwed town out of their DT for an unknown role if that's what you are. I'll switch to darm, but if you're still alive tomorrow and don't have any relevant information, I'm hanging you. | ||
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Analysis of Impervious I'm just going to go through his major posts, where he brings up new points and ideas. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 11:55 Impervious wrote: I'm going to throw some thoughts out there. I think in this setup; the sleeper agents would want the game to go on as long as possible. This would allow more communication, as well as the ability to only kill non-agent positions (rather than mislynch). Once they've identified each other, this will quickly change, however. Then again, the longer the game goes on, the more likely it is that the intelligence analyst can identify the reds and then claim who they all are. The downside is that they need to claim and give the town their info before they die..... I'm not sure how this is going to play out, but it's going to require a different play style than a conventional mafia game. I'm not sure who will benefit more from a shorter game, and who will benefit more from a longer game. Also, I'd be looking for any unusual word choices/phrases that a player could use to help identify themselves to/complete a clue they left the sleeper agents. Unfortunately, we probably won't know what the clues will really mean, but it could lead us to the cell leader, or a red faking as the cell leader to take pressure off the leader. That all being said, I think we need to at least pressure people during the day. While it would suck to pressure a blue role, it's more likely that we'd pressure a red role, which could lead us to an early advantage through a good lynch. And anyone who is lurking will not be an asset to the town, so they're definitely good choices to pressure, if we don't have a lead on anyone else. I know there was something else I thought of earlier, but I didn't write it down, and I didn't post it cause iGrok told us to stop posting until the game started -_- Doesn't make a strong point about game length or how play style will be different, but he does bring up the idea of hidden word and messages for the first time. I like this, because it shows that he's actually thinking. He then makes a statement about pressure and lurkers, which I like, but is a general statement you see every game for the most part. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 22:38 Impervious wrote: Guys, this talk about breadcrumbing is nice and all, but I don't see it going much further at the moment. We should probably wait a while before bringing this up, so we can catch a slip up. Especially if they are trying to hide their posting in the thread. I think we should talk about the pros and cons of of double-checking anyone who gets the result of "insufficient analysis", to make it easier on the DT. The pros of double checking are that you are more sure of the result. The cons are that you could be checking someone else instead, therefore checking more people. I really think the cons outweigh the pros in this case. Thoughts? Everyone was caught up on breadcrumbing and seemed stuck on the subject, so Impervious comes in and asks people about "insufficient analysis". I like this, because the breadcrumb discussion had stopped going anywhere, so he promotes a different town discussion instead, to get us back on track. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 22:57 Impervious wrote: Actually, you're wrong with the "75%" thing. There's a 1/15 chance that the cell leader will be checked tonight (based on pure percentages). There's a 14/15 chance that a non cell leader will be checked tonight (also based on pure percentages). If the cell leader is checked, it will show up as insufficient analysis. If a non cell leader is checked, it'll show up as insufficient analysis in 25% of the checks. Ultimately, this means that a result of insufficient analysis tonight leads to a 22.2% chance of actually being the cell leader..... IT IS NOT 75%. However, lynching them is still the best move. Assuming 4 sleeper cells and the cell leader, out of a total of 15 people who could be checked, it adds up to about a 50% chance of hitting a red by lynching anyone who gets "insufficient analysis" tonight. When you add in factors like intentionally checking scummy players (increasing your chance of checking the right people), then this is by far the best choice. Makes a comment about the statistics of the DT check. I don't think it says too much about his alignment, as it doesn't say anything about his own opinions, but I'm inclined to believe scum would rather just let town think that the old, incorrect, percentages were true, as they favoured scum more in my eyes. + Show Spoiler + On April 27 2011 23:25 Impervious wrote: I guess we're going to use traditional mafia lingo in this game..... For the DT checks, I'd also want to know about Ace. He is a great player, which is why I'd want to be sure he's on my side. He's also acting a little weird, and I'm not sure what to make of it at the moment. He would be my check tonight, for sure, unless something happens between now and the end of the night. I'm also confused about why. From what I've seen in the thread, he's held in somewhat high regard (this is my first time playing with him, and I haven't observed a game where he played either, so I don't know myself). With having few posts, and generally unconstructive posting (I know most of mine are also pretty useless, but I've got a lot of them, so I'll eventually write something useful, much like how a room full of monkeys with typewriters will eventually come up with the entire work of Shakespeare), it seems like it would be pretty uncharacteristic of an experienced player. I dont think the vigi is in danger yet..... The chance of getting hit tonight/lyched tomorrow is pretty low, and it will probably be far more useful to have the kill around for later. Also, while there are players we can do without, I really think it would be better to lynch them rather than waste a vigi kill on. So I'd agree, unless the Vigi has a really good lead on one of the members of the mafia, it would be better to save the hit for later. Also, while it would be nice to have a medic on our side (among other roles, such as a veteran), we don't know for sure. It would be better to assume that we don't. We're going to need to assume that we'll lose someone tonight, and at this point, it seems to be pretty unlikely that the mafia will force a kill on one of their own. Another thing to worry about - the mafia just lost a member. Unless Rean was the first person contacted by the GF (which I find very unlikely, although it is possible that the GF made that big of a mistake), then there are probably only 2 more people who have to be contacted..... Which means the mafia should know who each other are. While it's not as useful as being able to discuss at night, like most mafia games, it will help them tremendously. We have to assume that for tomorrow night, they'll be able to be somewhat coordinated..... Makes a point about Ace and why, original thoughts. Thinks vigi should save his shot, his reasoning make sense, and I like it. Scum would like vigs to shoot randomly night 1, as it gives a higher chance that they hit town. Also makes a good point that scum will know each other more quickly than they would before since Rean died. + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2011 01:37 Impervious wrote: Actually, as much as I think Ace is definitely a candidate for a lynch, this is a very bad reason for it. Out of the obvious top 4 players that the mafia would want to eliminate, 1 of them is gone. This does not automatically mean that the other 3 are suspicious..... Points out bad logic and says why it's wrong. + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2011 09:08 Impervious wrote: Guys, if bum is in fact the analyst, while there is only a ~25% chance that he's actually the cell leader, there is a ~50% chance of getting a red. That is a pretty damn good chance at the moment. While it is stupid (imo) that bum claimed already, if he is the DT, he'll be a high priority target for the mafia, so they'll take him out at night. I don't see the reasoning for a red claiming as DT. It seems like such a dumb move. It instantly paints a giant target on them when he's still alive the next day. And if the mafia don't eliminate him tonight, then they risk him actually finding a mafia (assuming that Jackal is green). And, of course, if he's green, it could be an interesting play, if you really had a strong read on someone. I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. Voting for someone other than Jackal, based on some kind of analysis, would be fine if you don't believe bum, but lynching him is really fucking dumb right now. This is the post that made me change my mind about lynching bum for sure. He brings up good points, as to why we should have let him at least live throughout the night, and how that would be in town's best interests. Conclusion: Not the most active contributor, but most of his posts are well-reasoned and thought-out. He brings up new ideas and promotes healthy town discussion, as well as pointing out any errors in reasoning that he sees to the benefit of town. Townie I'm not sure how this is going to help you get a read on me, but there it is. I also think we should be discussing vig/dt targets for any blues that are still alive. I think a DT should 100% check Ace if they haven't already. As far as we know, there's no framers, so any positive result should be correct. As for vigs, I think we should discuss the merits of shooting Jackal or not now that we know that Bum's result was true. If we don't want to shoot Jackal, I'd say that Darm is a good choice for any vig that feels the need to use his shot tonight. | ||
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Tonight, we continue our investigation of the Terrorist threat in Liquidville with a quick analysis of why Sleeper Cells are so effective. Part of what makes a Terrorist sleeper agent so deadly is that individual Agents are not aware of each other's identity. Thus, when they are arrested, we cannot discover the names of other agents. We also cannot easily make assumptions based on their interactions with others. This makes Sleeper Cells very difficult to defeat. However, there are instances where this individualism can work against them as well. Tonight, GGQ was found murdered on the street with a bullet lodged in his brain. A careful investigation of his home revealed unlicensed weapons, false passports, and blueprints of public offices. But what makes this even more interesting is that Deputy Director Chaoser denies that anyone from his office is responsible. "If we were responsible, we would certainly claim full credit. And to be sure, we are out for blood after the murder of one of our agents. But find this situation to be more than satisfactory. Apparently, the terrorists have murdered one of their own! This is a terrific revelation for our society - we may still have a chance to defeat them after all." The terrorist's lack of organization certainly provides me with a much-needed morale boost! Citizens, please keep your eyes peeled for ANY suspicious behavior. This is iGrok of the Channel 4 News team. You stay classy, Liquidville. | ||
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He says he's going to claim, so I can only hope that he thought it through. If he is set on claiming however, I'd rather see that before I make any decisions in case it contains relevant information. | ||
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I'd also like to see Darm's and San's analysis that they promised, they could be very revealing to me about who the scum are. Also, If the host doesn't mind, can San post the flavor text from his role? I'm somewhat curious at the moment if it's a fake claim or not, because "Ex-Marine" is the bulletproof role from Survivor mafia, so either iGrok reused the name, or else it looks like San needed a name for a claim and found that one. | ||
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So, I'd like to ask san to post the full text of his role, because that might help clear things up or not. If he's lying, then I think our scum team is Ace/San/Varp. | ||
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On May 03 2011 02:58 sandroba wrote: From the other games you were town you were very agressive and abrasive. You seemed to tunnel people a lot more. You seem too mild and behaved this game. This isn't a good reason to call him scum though. Go read XXXVIII, where he was town. I was a third party that game, so I didn't call him out on it, but if I remember correctly, he didn't tunnel at all. I actually had him pegged as mafia, because of the weird change in meta. He didn't even yell at people until the Protact thing happened. Read through Insane 2, and then XXXVIII. He was town in both, and there is a huge shift in how he acted between them. This is why this change in behaviour isn't incredible to me. He has other behaviour that can look scummy, but lynching on the meta that he isn't being aggressive isn't a very good reason. | ||
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So if ace and san, and then varp are town, then the scum team is something like Jackal/BB/Eii. I'm going to expect that all of the scum will know who each other are at this point. So that means that there's 4 scum maximum, maybe 2 minimum and 9 players. If there's 4, we're at MYLO already, so we need to be sure that we do this right. There's been associations drawn between people already, it seems. There's a strong relationship between Ace and San, as his claim relies on someone else being hit. There's also a relationship that I think exists with Varp, because of his quick agreement with Ace's claim, as well as the scum list he posted, which targets the other possibility of the scum team. So what I need to decide, is if the scum team is formed of active posters and coherent, or made up of lurkers and disorganized. Everyone's gone quiet, and Ace isn't really pushing hard for Jackal's lynch like he was for Bum's, which puts me on edge as well. People need to get talking more, because right now it seems like I'm the only one trying to figure things out while the lynch deadline is fast approaching. | ||
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If Ace is town: The messages are true There was a message about a Canadian If scum is alerting scum of each others identities, then one of me or Impervious are red, meaning Impervious is Red. It could also be that scum want someone to push to lynch or kill either me or Impervious as well, when it says "Watch", not just "He's", meaning in that case, we're probably both green. If Ace is scum: The messages are most likely false Scum killed GGQ Ace fakes a message referencing the already dead GGQ, and then makes one about Canadians. Ace knows who the rest of his scum team are, and knows neither Impervious nor myself are red. He can now use that to push either of our lynches. That's why I'm not jumping on Impervious either. Ace said he wants to lynch a lurker, but there's not many left. The easiest candidate would be BB, and after that one of you/San/Jackal/Eiii. Lynching San would tell us Ace's alignment, but I'm not sure if we can sacrifice a town player if he's not scum. In that case, Ace is pretty much town, but then we will have killed one of our own, and Ace will most likely die at night. We can lynch Jackal based on the 50% probability that he's red, but we also have to keep in mind that there was RNG. BB replaced darm, who looked scummy, but was barely participating in the thread, so it's hard to get a complete alignment from his words and actions. BB also still hasn't had a chance to say anything yet. I haven't noticed much of Eiii, but I'm going to have to go reread all his posts. If I remember correctly, he wasn't a supporter of the bum lynch. Then there's yourself. you've been lurking pretty hard for a major part of the game, and now claim a bullet-proof, self-aware miller role. This doesn't absolve you from suspicion in my eyes, because that seems like a very easy thing to claim for scum, and explains why you would ever show up red to DT checks if that came up. | ||
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HONEST CITIZEN: You are a peaceful citizen of Liquidville. How could a terrorist cell ever appear in your town?! Your goal is to survive and help town discover and kill the Sleeper Cell. You have a single vote by day. And before anyone stirs up stuff, yes it is the same as in the OP. However, there's a major difference. The name isn't coloured in any way. Also, tnkted, if you yourself say that the role is useless if you don't get hit, then why would you claim before you were hit? The longer you don't claim, the more likely scum would have been to hit you because they'd get nervous if you kept hinting at information. Instead you claimed as soon as there was a bit of pressure and expected it to completely absolve you of suspicion while also rendering you useless. Brownbear looks like he's going to get modkilled, and right now, you look pretty scummy. Your role claim doesn't match with anyone else, you've been lurking hardcore, and you make a somewhat senseless claim. That's good enough for me today. ##Vote: tnkted | ||
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I'm going to post again a little before the Day post. | ||
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Imp has been connected to the Canadian quote, so he's either scum, or scum can use it to push a lynch on him. Also, I've connected Varp to Ace and San already so his death will give information, but I'm re-evaluating that judgment. That leaves me as the kill as I've been pretty active and trying to figure out what's happening. A few words to town if I'm dead. Don't follow anyone based only on a blue-claim. Ace is going to have another message for you guys, and it might help lead you in the right direction. Keep in mind though, that Ace could easily be lying. So, if you use that information to your advantage, or he tries to push something, don't do it solely on the message, but based on the logic behind it. Also keep in mind that if Ace is telling the truth, the Cell leader might actually be smart enough to send a message with fake information in anticipation of Ace intercepting it. So, don't blindly trust whatever message Ace reveals, as it could have been be tampered with, or could be a complete fabrication by Ace. Use your head, don't rely on claims. Watch who starts pushing what plan. If Ace/San are scum, then they'll either quickly push for Impervious or Jackal as a lynch, as they're both easy to kill based on the DT and "messages". At first, I also wanted to lump Varp with them, because of his "alignment list", which looked like it was basically parroting Ace and taking as true any blue information that had been given. However, I'm now considering the possibility of a Varpulis/Impervious/BB team too, with maybe Jackal. Every day, varp has been proposing Darm(BB) as the lynch, but never hard enough to actually get him killed. It seemed that both days, he just switched from a Darm vote to whoever was getting modkilled. This is easy for scum to do, especially if they know the person being modkilled isn't scum but Darm is. The switch is because he'd rather one town die than have to sacrifice a scum player who would otherwise live. His constant targeting of Darm without ever actually being serious about it seems like a scum who wants to get townie cred for lynching a lurking scum. Also, his list could be taken that he just wants to look town with it, appealing to popular opinion. Just watch who he's pushing for tomorrow, and how. Impervious has a couple posts that are making me suspicious of him as well now, and he's also already pushing for Jackal. This doesn't tell me much about Jackal's alignment, but if he's town, he's the go-to lynch for any scum that are around. It'll be really easy to push for him based on the DT check, and could also be used as a bus for scum. Imp seems to be pushing hard, like he wants to set it up already for the next day and get a head start on suggesting Jackal's lynch. So, keep in mind the possibility of Ace/San, but also the connections between Varp and BB, and now Imp pushing for Jackal. I've got a sinking feeling about Varp/Imp/BB right now, more than San/Ace, but see how it plays out over the beginning of the day before you make any final decisions. I've helped to lynch two town roles by accident already, and right now I'm not entirely convinced about Jackal being scum. If I'm wrong about that and what the scum-team is too, I'm probably the dumbest green who ever greened, but whatever. I'm also just working on the information I have now, and nothing more, so take this post like that. If I'm still alive in the morning, then this should all be disregarded as I'll have new information to re-evaluate everything. I just wanted to share my thoughts right now, because I have a gut feeling I'm getting shot, and wanted to get them out there, rather than have them die with me. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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I also think that I'm pretty green-looking right now. I claimed townie before Varp who claimed the same thing, and he flipped town, so unless I'm scum and got the same text as in the OP and decided to take the risk of claiming townie and hoping the town PM was the same as the OP for no particular reason, I think town can trust me to be green. As for the lynch today. I'm trusting San/Ace more right now, but I'm trying to figure out who the best target would be. I'm thinking maybe BB. The reason for this is he has looked very scummy for quite a while, but beyond that, he is scum independent of Ace/San and Jackal. If we want to go after Jackal, then we need to make the judgment call that Ace/San are town for sure. That would make them town, and at least one of Imp/Eii/Jackal/BB town as well. The other three (maybe two, but I'm going to assume higher numbers) would then be mafia. If Ace/San are scum, then three of Imp/Eii/Jackal/BB are town, and one is scum. So, if Ace/San are town, we have a mafia-rich pool of lynch candidates to assure the win, if they're scum, then there's only one more mafia in that group. So, what I think, is that we should lynch BB, because I believe him to be the common link between both possibilities, regardless of the alignment of anyone else. Here's how it would play out: Lynch BB, flips scum 4 town, 2 mafia Mafia hits 3 town, 2 mafia So, the night will give us information, depending on who gets hit. In the morning, we'll still be in MYLO, but the numbers will be reduced and town should hopefully be able to figure out who's who better. I'll fully expect one of Eiii/Imp/myself to die though, so it will be up to the one remaining green to figure out whether to side with San/Ace, or with Jackal and whoever. However, you should be able to figure out just by the voting patterns on that day, what's happening. You know you're green. You know there's either two blues alive, or two greens alive. Whether San/Ace are red/blue, they're likely to vote together that day. However, the other two players shouldn't be voting together right away. So, watch very closely how they act. If San/Ace are red, then the other players should be going through the same thought processes as you and trying to figure out who's red or not. However, if it seems like they know what they're doing, and they band together right away without going through these thought processes, then they're probably red. If it comes down to two groups of people trying to convince you to lynch each other, then I'd be more likely to side with Ace/San. They know what each other are regardless of alignment. Jackal+1 do not however, so it would seem odd if they had that amount of coordination without any of the back and forth that would be expected if they were green, and might be indicative that they're red. So there's my plan. Lynch BB, and try to figure out who's who tomorrow, when there's more information. Right now I'm leaning that San/Ace are town, and that Eiii is another mafia, probably with Jackal. Then it's up to the last town tomorrow to figure out who to side with, with my advice on how to do it. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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2) Ace has claimed a role, but I really haven't seen much information besides "Lol I'm Undercover Agent I shot GGQ he's scum love me guys" (And if you shot GGQ, where's the other night kill? Where is it? WHERE?) 3) Ace has claimed a role that to me seems rather broken and overpowered. Night shot plus the ability to read part of the sleeper cell messages? Color me skeptical. 2) San claimed Vet 3) Apparently the un-NK-able role existed, so I'm not going to put this one past being real because of how weird it seemed. I also didn't pay attention to BB's list, because it was BS, and I knew it was BS. It was drawn entirely from "breadcrumbs", and when he's trying to link me in with them, when I know I'm green, it makes the whole thing look wrong. I don't trust it anymore, because if that part of it was wrong, what assurance do I have that the rest of it was right, when that's all he seemed to be drawing it on? Also, the reason Ace is alive for the last night, is that if they killed him, and he flipped town, we'd have a "confirmed" town in San. First night, he wasn't doing anything, so they killed someone else. Second night, they supposedly hit San for some reason. Not too far of a stretch to consider that he's alive except for what happened on N2, and that still relates to his blue claim. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 03 2011 12:14 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Roleclaim time: HONEST CITIZEN: You are a peaceful citizen of Liquidville. How could a terrorist cell ever appear in your town?! Your goal is to survive and help town discover and kill the Sleeper Cell. You have a single vote by day. And before anyone stirs up stuff, yes it is the same as in the OP. However, there's a major difference. The name isn't coloured in any way. On May 03 2011 12:39 VarpuliS wrote: are we roleclaiming now? Cool. Notice how it's exactly the same as in the OP, sans the the green and the bold. From the OP: | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/V15TX.png) MR. WIGGLES looked at the town assembled before him in the small apartment. These were the last of his once peaceful town, and he knew at least half of them were terrorist scum. Sandroba and Ace shouted out, "You can trust us, we're working for the government!", while Impervious and Brownbear looked at them in disdain, shaking their heads and yelling, "Don't believe them, we're the true townies here!". MR. WIGGLES looked at both groups, and then at Eiii who lay comatose on the floor, and Jackal who stood forgotten in a corner. "HOW CAN I TRUST ANY OF YOU?" MR. WIGGLES boomed, "HOW DO I KNOW YOU AREN'T ALL SLEEPER AGENTS?". Not taken aback by his paranoia, they all renewed their verbal efforts to persuade MR. WIGGLES, but to no effect. "SILENCE", MR. WIGGLES said, his voice becoming low, "I CANNOT TRUST THE INNOCENCE OF ANY OF YOU, AND I CANNOT ALLOW ANY SLEEPER AGENTS TO SURVIVE TO WREAK HAVOC. THEREFORE, YOU MUST ALL DIE, FOR FREEDOM, FOR JUSTICE, FOR AMERICA!". With that, MR. WIGGLES raised his open hand, now shining brightly with the power coursing through him. Some tried to run, while others tried to attack MR. WIGGLES, but it was hopeless. As they were lifted from the ground they screamed and struggled, trying to find some way to escape their fates, before MR. WIGGLES clenched his fist and the men before him disintegrated into fine red mist. "IT APPEARS MY WORK HERE IS DONE", and with that, MR. WIGGLES exited the room, entered his vehicle, and drove off into the sunset and the new adventures that awaited him. He was excited, for while sacrifices needed to be made, he could rest assured, that Liquidville was finally safe. Ace is dead Brownbear is dead Eiii is dead Sandroba is dead Jackal58 is dead Impervious is dead MR. WIGGLES wins! | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Thanks to the hosts for hosting, I had a lot of fun. Hopefully if we try again, there'll be less modkills, but it was still amusing. Thanks! | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On May 08 2011 03:52 Ace wrote: I thought when I told you "I hope you die" that was clear enough :D If you thought it was a bus should have pointed it out. Just an FYI as something I do when I play scum, since it's done on purpose to deal with people that play town by vote and motive checking. When I'm scum and you should try it when you're Scum - get your team on different "sides" of the town. This game it seemed like myself and sandroba were "allied" to Wiggles at one point, in agreement with Impervious later on, and never in agreement with bum or Jackal. This is a simplified example since the game was much more fluid than I suggest but I hope you get the point. As town one of the best ways of catching Scum is grouping people based on what they agree on. Which is why sometimes you'll hear me say something about generating discussion like policy lynch or believing someone's claim. Once this happens then you can make sure that people's votes follow what they said. Then it also becomes easier to look at motives. For example: If bum and Jackal largely agree on bum's claim, then Jackal votes for bum, or doesn't vote for someone who disagrees with bum that doesn't have a good reason to then Jackal "stands out". As scum this is why it's helpful to get multiple players on different sides especially when they can argue: In the event someone gets caught in the "wrong group" if their motives and reasoning match their votes they just appear to be a townie that made a wrong play. All in all THIS is why of all the things in the game the one thing no one can argue about is where they placed their vote. If you're town and you have extra information then use this to pin Scum. If you're Scum before you vote just make sure your reasoning holds up. If the town has Vigilantes that look to votes or likes to hunt by eliminating players in a group you'll be sorry. That's good advice, thanks. I need to practice scum-hunting, because like I said, I haven't been town for long in a game for months it seems, I'm pretty rusty. :p | ||
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