|
Also, my activity tomorrow should probably increase as I just finished my last three exams over the last couple days and don't need to study anymore.
Just a thought too, as the game progresses, scum are going to become a lot more coherent. They still won't have the ability to PM each other or communicate during the day though, but they will know who each other are, and who the Cell Leader is.
What I think this means, is that starting Day 2, we need to be on the lookout for people pushing plans early and other people supporting it early. Scum can't communicate throughout the day, so the Cell leader will probably plan something in a PM during the morning, or else one scum member will push for a plan early on and hope to get the others to support him. Scum need to make their move earlier than later, and will be the most organized right as the day is beginning. As new developments pop up, scum won't be able to deal with them as a team, and will act a lot more fragmented. As such, the more town can pull together and blindside scum better, as they won't be able to actively deal with it as a team.
So look for scummy people jumping to support plans early on, and look for things that look like odd amounts of organization. Also, when new game-changing information pops up, look for people who start to act differently than they were, or who don't seem to react to it and stay stuck in what they were doing before. I think this can show us scum who are freaking out because there's no communication with their team, or scum who don't know what to do because they have no one to direct them.
|
My scum play so far has just involved never being fingered as scum :p
|
Ok, some thoughts:
Firstly, GM decided not to shoot last night. This is a little surprising to me given his vigilante list, that he didn't decide to shoot a lurker off it himself. I guess he figured that he would live long enough to pick a better target and just wanted to apply pressure with it. That said, I'd look at people on his vig list a little bit more, so: Eii, GGQ, why, Vain, darm. These are the people who would have felt threatened by GM because he wanted them dead. The DT list is also somewhere you could look, but to a lesser extent, because saying you want someone to die is more pressure than saying you want someone to get checked, one of those situations isn't salvageable.
I'm little surprised that Ace is still alive too, but I don't think that is a good reason to call him scum.
All game long, people have been touting him as some kind of mafia forum hero, so it would make sense that scum would want to kill him right away, right? Not necessarily.
If we look at the vote last night, there was a lot of fragmentation, so one can assume that the cell kill vote would look similar, with a lot of division. Because of this, I don't think it would take much more than something like three or so cell members feeling threatened by GM and voting for him for him to become their kill. GM was doing "analysis", pushing plans, being active, and in general trying to get information out there. He acted pro-town, and now he's dead. Ace on the other hand, didn't do much Day 1 besides his list thing, and so probably didn't seem as much of an imminent threat to the cell. So, I don't think it's that scum thinks he's scum, just that GM was posing a more realistic threat at the end of Day 1.
I don't know if anyone remembered this or not:
On April 28 2011 07:39 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Also, my activity tomorrow should probably increase as I just finished my last three exams over the last couple days and don't need to study anymore.
Just a thought too, as the game progresses, scum are going to become a lot more coherent. They still won't have the ability to PM each other or communicate during the day though, but they will know who each other are, and who the Cell Leader is.
What I think this means, is that starting Day 2, we need to be on the lookout for people pushing plans early and other people supporting it early. Scum can't communicate throughout the day, so the Cell leader will probably plan something in a PM during the morning, or else one scum member will push for a plan early on and hope to get the others to support him. Scum need to make their move earlier than later, and will be the most organized right as the day is beginning. As new developments pop up, scum won't be able to deal with them as a team, and will act a lot more fragmented. As such, the more town can pull together and blindside scum better, as they won't be able to actively deal with it as a team.
So look for scummy people jumping to support plans early on, and look for things that look like odd amounts of organization. Also, when new game-changing information pops up, look for people who start to act differently than they were, or who don't seem to react to it and stay stuck in what they were doing before. I think this can show us scum who are freaking out because there's no communication with their team, or scum who don't know what to do because they have no one to direct them.
why wasn't around much on Day 1, and he didn't give any sort of explanation for it until recently. Now on day 2, he shows up, and right away pushes a lynch for Ace before any other discussion has even commenced. This seems reminiscent of the bolded parts from my post. Also, why dropping Jackal completely in favor of Ace seems a little odd to me. Then add on to this that he was on GM's vig list and is giving bad reasons for scum kill choice:
##FOS: why
|
On April 29 2011 06:23 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2011 05:53 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Ok, some thoughts:
Firstly, GM decided not to shoot last night. This is a little surprising to me given his vigilante list, that he didn't decide to shoot a lurker off it himself. I guess he figured that he would live long enough to pick a better target and just wanted to apply pressure with it. That said, I'd look at people on his vig list a little bit more, so: Eii, GGQ, why, Vain, darm. These are the people who would have felt threatened by GM because he wanted them dead. The DT list is also somewhere you could look, but to a lesser extent, because saying you want someone to die is more pressure than saying you want someone to get checked, one of those situations isn't salvageable. On the vig issue. GM may have decided to not shoot after I reminded him of scums win condition. Town has to be out of players with guns. So GMs loss is really quite significant to us.
I guess. It's only relevant though if we get in a situation where it's something like 3 town, 3 scum. Other than that, the no gun rules doesn't really have much impact on the game, because if scum outnumbers town, it's going to be pretty much impossible to win anyways.
That also doesn't make sense for why he didn't shoot though. If he thought that one of the players in his vig list were an Intelligence Agent, why would he have put them in there anyways, in case a third agent shot into them? My only explanation is that he thought that he could save his shot, and use it at a different time when the chance of his target being scum was higher. I made a mistake reading the OP when I made that post, because I didn't realize that vigs only get to shoot once. Trying to save his shot in case we get into a situation where town is outnumbered by scum instead of shooting who he thinks is scum isn't a great plan though, it seems to unlikely for it to happen and for town to scrape a win after that. Better to just shoot when you think you have a good target.
|
On April 29 2011 06:39 VarpuliS wrote:Hi guys! iGrok will probably release this in a few minutes, but I'm replacing in for why. All suspicion should now be transferred to me.  I've only sort of been following this game, so I'll need to read through. Could somebody explain to me why i'm scummy?
You made four posts day 1, then right as day 2 starts, you jump right into trying to lynch Ace forgoing Jackal who you voted for day 1. You were also on GM's vig list, and that makes me want to watch you more closely, because GM died, and the scum voting for him obviously felt pressured by him or thought he was an asset to town, the vig list being those he most pressured.
|
So... did the thread die? I want to type more on my new keyboard :p
|
On April 29 2011 09:01 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2011 08:49 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
So... did the thread die? I want to type more on my new keyboard :p Breadcrumb?
No, it was my birthday a couple days ago, and I got a mech keyboard, and blue switches are really fun to type on.
|
Bum, your logic is bad.
Firstly, you call Jackal the Cell Leader without even considering the possibility that there's a 25% chance that he would show up as "Insufficient" if he were anything else.
Alright initially I was just going to give an analysis and link reasons as to why Jackal was Cell Leader, but the evidence is so damning, that I figured it would be pointless to hide my identity as I become an obvious target once Jackal pops. I am an INTELLIGENCE ANALYST.
Right away you assume that he is the Cell Leader, and decide to make a bad claim rather than just push an analysis.
Let me explain why I think it's a bad claim and that you might be lying.
Let's imagine you are a DT, and you checked Jackal, and got an "insufficient for analysis".
You would then decide to build a case against him so that you can try to get him lynched.
If you don't claim:
-You make a case, if it's strong, you get him lynched.
-If he flips red, you might survive the night if scum hit someone else instead cause they just think you're a green who analyzed
-If he flips town, you were wrong and it was RNG. People will be suspicious of you, but you'll most likely survive the night
If you claim:
-You make a case with a claim, Jackal gets lynched
-If he flips red, you die, scum know who you are
-If he flips town, you die, scum know who you are
It does not make sense to claim here. By claiming, you assure scum will hit you 100% rather than having any chance to live by not claiming. You also received an insufficient for analysis, not a Red return, so that even makes a claim weaker, because there's a chance you got the return on a town anyways, it's not a sure thing.
So, I think you're claim can be fake for two reasons.
1. You don't mention the probability of it being wrong, so that makes me think that you just forgot about it. A real DT would keep in mind that there's RNG for everyone, and that doesn't just happen for the GF. By forgetting to even mention that until later when someone else brings it up, it makes me believe that you forgot about it in the first place, i.e. you might not be a DT.
2. The claim makes no sense. You say you claimed because you would have died anyways. That only makes sense again, if you think that the ONLY person who brings back "insufficient" is GF and not anyone else. If you were DT, and Jackal flips green, scum wouldn't hit you. If he flipped red, then you're not as likely to live, but they might let you if they're trying to snipe blues or something. Claiming makes it a 100% chance that you would die.
Now, all your "breadcrumb" things are terrible and a null-tell.
It makes no sense for scum to try to breadcrumb into the thread unless it's to direct other scum and communicate plans. Crumbing in the thread to identify yourself in PM is just stupid. So you're saying that Jackal bread crumbed about driving, and my birthday, instead of just saying, "I'm OPEC, clues and puzzles", "Steelers, profile", "Ilich Ramírez Sánchez, wiki", which would be easily recognizable as being him? Then the thing about my birthday isn't a tell either. It's normal when it's someone's birthday, to say, "Happy Birthday". As well, you missed Vain wishing me one later, so was that him just picking up on the crumb later? You're looking too far into that, unless you think Vain, Ace, and Jackal are all scum breadcrumbing, and tack was just an innocent bystander.
You also say that you don't want to analyze Jackal, because:
I don't really feel I need to make a huge in-depth analysis on his behavior, since it will not be strongest point, even if I was 10x the analyzer. To summarize what I make of jackal's posts, I will only to briefly skim them, even if he has a lot.
Right here, you say, "Jackal doesn't look like scum from his posting". You're relying on your supposed "DT information", to be the decider for his lynch. However, if you were a DT, you would look at your result and then go over his posts. If he didn't look scummy to you, you would decide that it was RNG. Just claiming, without strong analysis, with the chance that he's town, is just bad play.
I think you're smarter than that and would think things through if you were a DT. So, I think you're lying.
|
On April 29 2011 14:52 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2011 13:08 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Bum, your logic is bad.
Firstly, you call Jackal the Cell Leader without even considering the possibility that there's a 25% chance that he would show up as "Insufficient" if he were anything else. I didn't take it into consideration, because I believe I found his breadcrumbs, and a decent composition of jackal's general behavior.
Again, he doesn't need to lay public breadcrumbs.
Show nested quote +Alright initially I was just going to give an analysis and link reasons as to why Jackal was Cell Leader, but the evidence is so damning, that I figured it would be pointless to hide my identity as I become an obvious target once Jackal pops. I am an INTELLIGENCE ANALYST. Right away you assume that he is the Cell Leader, and decide to make a bad claim rather than just push an analysis. Because I've based it on the insufficient and the breadcrumbs. He isn't anything else. He's CL.
I still think the "breadcrumbs" are worthless.
Show nested quote +Let me explain why I think it's a bad claim and that you might be lying.
Let's imagine you are a DT, and you checked Jackal, and got an "insufficient for analysis".
You would then decide to build a case against him so that you can try to get him lynched.
If you don't claim:
-You make a case, if it's strong, you get him lynched.
-If he flips red, you might survive the night if scum hit someone else instead cause they just think you're a green who analyzed
-If he flips town, you were wrong and it was RNG. People will be suspicious of you, but you'll most likely survive the night
If you claim:
-You make a case with a claim, Jackal gets lynched
-If he flips red, you die, scum know who you are
-If he flips town, you die, scum know who you are
It does not make sense to claim here. By claiming, you assure scum will hit you 100% rather than having any chance to live by not claiming. You also received an insufficient for analysis, not a Red return, so that even makes a claim weaker, because there's a chance you got the return on a town anyways, it's not a sure thing. I'm sold on Jackal being the CL. I don't really have a doubt in my mind that he couldn't be. I've found everything I was looking for with his posts, a scum who knows who the other scum are, and is trying to clue them in. I claimed because it's easier then pushing town onto your analysis. I know its sounds lazy, but I got a blue role, and im not gonna take the 1% chance scum doesnt hit me and get another check. This way I skimp on really pointing out exactly how scummy jackal is, when I can just add in "Oh aside from the analysis I did, there is a 75% chance he's CL and 25% he aint, not taking analysis into account." Sorry, I'm busy, gonna take the easy road
There isn't a 75% chance he's CL, it's about 1/5 strictly based on probability. Also, where is he "trying to clue people in"?
Show nested quote +So, I think you're claim can be fake for two reasons.
1. You don't mention the probability of it being wrong, so that makes me think that you just forgot about it. A real DT would keep in mind that there's RNG for everyone, and that doesn't just happen for the GF. By forgetting to even mention that until later when someone else brings it up, it makes me believe that you forgot about it in the first place, i.e. you might not be a DT. If I'm wrong, which I really feel I am not, Scum will not hit me, I will give you a confirmed town or confirmed scum if you lynch me. 7% of that happening? Well that is higher then how I feel on jackal so according to you it will happen. So I'm not taking it into account. I've added too many factors that conclude it is right, and I have a back-up on the less then 1% I am wrong. That's how I feel, so yes I guess I would forget about that.
What are you talking about, scum won't hit you? You just claimed that you're a DT, so now you're saying that if Jackal is green cause of RNG scum will just give you another free check? Also, what are all these percentages?
Show nested quote +2. The claim makes no sense. You say you claimed because you would have died anyways. That only makes sense again, if you think that the ONLY person who brings back "insufficient" is GF and not anyone else. If you were DT, and Jackal flips green, scum wouldn't hit you. If he flipped red, then you're not as likely to live, but they might let you if they're trying to snipe blues or something. Claiming makes it a 100% chance that you would die. Less then 1%. Thats how I feel. Doesn't matter what other people think, it was my assessment to make, and my claim to make. He is not a sleeper agent. He is Cell Leader. If he is sleeper agent, I would suggest town treat it no different then as if he popped town.
This has nothing to do with what other people think, and I don't get why you're bringing it up. It has to do that you have a whole lot of a better chance to live until the next day by not claiming. By claiming, you're signing your own death certificate in a game with no medics and where scum are going to go for obvious targets.
Show nested quote +Now, all your "breadcrumb" things are terrible and a null-tell.
It makes no sense for scum to try to breadcrumb into the thread unless it's to direct other scum and communicate plans. Crumbing in the thread to identify yourself in PM is just stupid. So you're saying that Jackal bread crumbed about driving, and my birthday, instead of just saying, "I'm OPEC, clues and puzzles", "Steelers, profile", "Ilich Ramírez Sánchez, wiki", which would be easily recognizable as being him? Then the thing about my birthday isn't a tell either. It's normal when it's someone's birthday, to say, "Happy Birthday". As well, you missed Vain wishing me one later, so was that him just picking up on the crumb later? You're looking too far into that, unless you think Vain, Ace, and Jackal are all scum breadcrumbing, and tack was just an innocent bystander. CarTrip, is much shorter, where he could add in "hpyBday" Then it allows for more letters, and I think he's successfully shed some light for scum. I'm treating the happy birthday thing as a funny little sidenote. I thought you would just shrug it off, but I'll take note of your concern I connected ace and jackal from other things.
Why does length matter? OPEC is shorter than any of those for example, arguing about that is pointless. What I'm trying to say, is do you think that the Cell Leader would try to put public breadcrumbs in his posts instead of just referring to something in his profile or signature? What's the advantage? If that's what your analysis is based on, then maybe you're the Cell Leader because you wrote "batman" in your hello post and varp called you batman later. See how your examples of breadcrumbs can just be cherry-picked?
Show nested quote +You also say that you don't want to analyze Jackal, because: I don't really feel I need to make a huge in-depth analysis on his behavior, since it will not be strongest point, even if I was 10x the analyzer. To summarize what I make of jackal's posts, I will only to briefly skim them, even if he has a lot. Right here, you say, "Jackal doesn't look like scum from his posting". You're relying on your supposed "DT information", to be the decider for his lynch. However, if you were a DT, you would look at your result and then go over his posts. If he didn't look scummy to you, you would decide that it was RNG. Just claiming, without strong analysis, with the chance that he's town, is just bad play. And where the fuck do I say he isn't scummy? I say the breadcrumbs+the insufficient are plenty to convince me. I don't really need to his behavior to convict him, but it worked out that way in the end once you read his posts. DID YOU READ THE ANALYSIS, I WENT OVER HIS POSTS. I skimmed then and said I got the gist of his Cell Leader posts, because if I read everything he posted on that and made a comment on each I would still be writing the analysis. NOT ME SORRY LOL. And its my supposed DT info and the crumbs! Without the crumbs then you're right its just a 75% guess and a happy birthday. (which it isnt READ IT AGAIN FFFF) Disregarding my analysis because I say my information (and crumbs) are stronger is obnoxiously scummy of you wiggles.
You say your analysis is weak, and use that as an excuse for not pushing any analysis. Your "analysis", as it stands, is "Jackal talks a lot about the cell leader and breadcrumbs". The rest is the "relationships" he has with others IF he were the Cell Leader, and the "breadcrumbs". You're begging the question, you have to show through your analysis why he can be the cell leader, not say he's the cell leader and go from there. To me, the crumbs mean nothing, and I need more convincing than "he talks about cell leader" and a 22% chance if you're telling the truth. That's why I'd like to see analysis, not a claim that doesn't make any sense.
Show nested quote +I think you're smarter than that and would think things through if you were a DT. So, I think you're lying.
You thought wrong sir. Thanks for making me take actual note of you. Would you have still responded the same way if I didn't include you?
Yes I would, because whether you include me or not, your claim makes no sense, and lynching someone off of "breadcrumbs" that just seem to be cherry picked isn't good enough for me.
Someone aside from the magnificent three care to call me a blatant liar?
Also, a tiny little smidge of a note, it's definitely not the end of the world for scum if they get the wrong assumption from a message. Hypothetically, if the HpyBDay was a crumb, and tackster was alive and wiggles/ace thought he was scum for some reason, that most likely will not effect the scheme of things. There are only a handful of situations involving tackser claiming or jackal contradicting himself. Both of which would be hilarious.
If you think I'm scum now, I'd like it if you came out and said it, not talked around me. You still haven't given me ONE good reason why any cell leader would try to write things into his posts so that he could get caught for it rather than just refer to something in his profile. Also, I'm not even sure who you're asking us to lynch?
|
Wow, bum. Nowhere did I call you scum yet, I'm just trying to wrap my head around your claim that in my eyes, is bad play. nowhere did I "explode", either. I just don't like that you're trying to insinuate that I'm scum based on the silly notion people saying happy birthday is scum communicating. When I was talking about breadcrumbs, I was talking about ways that scum would direct scum, or let them know their identity. Just looking at the car ride, and saying, "He talked about a car ride! Message was car ride!", isn't very strong in my opinion. It looks like you're looking too far into it to me. What next, the person who also said they have exams is my scum-buddy because they also said they have exams? I'm also not attacking your analysis, because there isn't an analysis there to begin with, I'm arguing against your logic.
You're getting angry and throwing around accusations instead of answering any of my questions or addressing my points.
EVERYONE talked about Cell leader and breadcrumbs on day 1, the only thing I find suspicious is Jackal pushing for whoever to explain his method of crumbing, so what else sets him apart?
WHY would you claim, it doesn't help town, and it doesn't help you, so why? This pisses me off more than anything, because we lose a blue role for sure now if you're telling the truth.
HOW CAN YOU BE SURE, that driving is a breadcrumb? At that point, you can go back in the thread and just construe talking about anything non-game related to be a scum tell, so what makes it particularly telling? just that he mentioned it three times?.
I can't even understand half of what you say when you reply to me, but all I want is just to get to the bottom of things and address questions instead of sheeping and following blue claims without a thought. Your replies don't help put me at ease though, because you just go off on tangents and repeat yourself instead of discuss.
Right now, there's a about 8 people lurking, and the scum among them are just LOVING this, because it gives them cover to not do anything. Day ends in less than 24 hours, and the only people talking are me, you, ace, and san. Jackal made some posts, and why pushed for a lynch at the beginning of the day and then disappeared. Everyone else is invisible.
|
On April 30 2011 00:53 Impervious wrote:
Ok, for those of you who are skeptical of bum, what do you think about lynching him to prove it, to satisfy your curiosity?
If he really is the DT, his list and reasoning seems pretty solid, and I haven't seen any better ideas.....
I was thinking about if we should lynch either Jackal or Bum, but realized, that whichever we choose, we get NO information about the other's alignment that we don't have already. This is why, I find his claim so blatantly bad, coming from only one result, and from an "insufficient".
-If Jackal flips green, then Bum could or could not be the detective still.
-If Jackal flips red, then Bum could be or not be the detective still
-If Jackal flips Cell Leader, this makes Bum look more town, but still doesn't say whether he's a DT or not, because this result isn't based off a check, it's based off suspicion.
-Bum flips Blue, then Jackal still could be or not be town, because the check was inconclusive
-Bum flips red, Jackal looks more town, still WIFOM for it being a bus
The only situation that lets us know the alignment of the surviving player better is IF Jackal flips cell leader, because then we only need to figure out the probability of it being a bus.
So, we can't lynch for information. We have to lynch who we think is scummiest, because the flip won't tell us much about the alignment of the other one.
What this is like, is if it were a normal game and 4 greens remained with one GF who shows up green to checks. So you check a player and he shows up green, and then you claim DT and say that the green check means that he's GF and you build an analysis from the starting point that he's GF. It just isn't convincing, and doesn't make sense.
In this game, at least on a red return, we could check if he's lying or not, because there's no framer that we know about. On multiple returns, say if he claimed day 3, we would be able to cross-check the players. All he'd have to do, is 1 minute before the day post, say I'm DT, I checked these people, and give the alignment of the one you know, in case one or both of them was killed by scum that night. After two checks, he should at least have one full return, most likely.
|
On April 30 2011 04:33 bumatlarge wrote:
Because I'm hypothetically 100% correct! (and jackal is CL)
Though I am confused about tnkted, what the balls dude? Even if we both heavily suspect Ace, jackal or myself needs to be lynched so we can sort this out ASAP. I really don't see how you can make Ace out to be scum but thinking jackal is town at the same time.
Lynching you or Jackal sorts out nothing, really. Also, can you answer my questions?
|
I'm going to say, we should lynch bum. I've already stated the reasons why I disagree with him.
If he pops DT, we shoot Jackal on the 25% chance that he's the Cell Leader. He's claimed green already, so his death isn't a giant loss if he's not Cell Leader besides just what he brings to the table as a player. We can discuss this more after the lynch though.
If Bum pops scum, then I'm going to heavily suggest a real DT check on Ace, as well as increased scrutiny on GM's vig list, because of this post:
On April 27 2011 23:39 Zorkmid wrote:
Let's wait and see if Ace is still alive tomorrow before we waste a check on him.
It will take us a long time to determine whether we have a medic or not, as no sane person with a sense of self preservation dares claim.
GM, I'm thinking that your Vigi list should be more for DT checks. I'm not sold on first night shootings for vigis, as they can be oh so valuable later on.
##Vote: Bum
|
There's 12 people left, and five or less scum. Taking the maximum of 5, and minusing yourself when you know you're town, there's a 45% chance that anyone besides yourself is scum. This applies to everyone though, not just Jackal, that's why I don't like that reasoning for pushing a lynch.
I'd be ok with lynching why/darm right now, if we want to keep bum alive in case he's telling the truth.
The only problem, is if he lives tomorrow, we're in the same spot we are today regarding the lynch. The difference would be he'd have another "result", which may or may not be to our benefit, depending on his alignment. At that point, he could be bussing someone, or he could be telling the truth, or he could just say "insufficient" again. It's really easy to fake, and it's hard to figure out if it's true or not.
|
Who do you propose to lynch then? We'll still be in this situation tomorrow of Bum doesn't get shot by scum, and then we'll have to rely on him getting a definite check or not. This way, we'll know if we need to shoot Jackal tonight or not for sure. I'm ok with letting bum live tonight, but we're going to go through the same thing tomorrow if he's still alive then, so we need some definite targets.
|
Except for the part where I'm green. That's also why I didn't like your whole breadcrumb thing. If you're trying to imply I'm scum from that, when I know I'm town, then it undermines the entire thing in my eyes. That's why I opposed it pretty strongly. If you're wrong about me, large parts of it fall down.
Also, for your proposed lynch list, I'm supposed to lynch either
A) Myself
B) Jackal that doesn't give us any information about you. If it's not you being lynched, I'd rather wait until you have a solid check we can lynch to try to confirm you.
C) Ace, who I think is mostly town, but would like to see a check on anyways. Also one of the only active people.
I also don't get why you thought it was a good idea to try to draw fire off of tnkted. You don't know if he's blue, he still hasn't role-claimed and is pretty much lurking, and even if he's blue, you don't know what his role is. Maybe he's a vet or something and wants to get hit, did you ever think of that? Regardless, you just screwed town out of their DT for an unknown role if that's what you are.
I'll switch to darm, but if you're still alive tomorrow and don't have any relevant information, I'm hanging you.
|
Analysis of Impervious
I'm just going to go through his major posts, where he brings up new points and ideas.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 11:55 Impervious wrote:
I'm going to throw some thoughts out there.
I think in this setup; the sleeper agents would want the game to go on as long as possible. This would allow more communication, as well as the ability to only kill non-agent positions (rather than mislynch). Once they've identified each other, this will quickly change, however.
Then again, the longer the game goes on, the more likely it is that the intelligence analyst can identify the reds and then claim who they all are. The downside is that they need to claim and give the town their info before they die.....
I'm not sure how this is going to play out, but it's going to require a different play style than a conventional mafia game. I'm not sure who will benefit more from a shorter game, and who will benefit more from a longer game.
Also, I'd be looking for any unusual word choices/phrases that a player could use to help identify themselves to/complete a clue they left the sleeper agents. Unfortunately, we probably won't know what the clues will really mean, but it could lead us to the cell leader, or a red faking as the cell leader to take pressure off the leader.
That all being said, I think we need to at least pressure people during the day. While it would suck to pressure a blue role, it's more likely that we'd pressure a red role, which could lead us to an early advantage through a good lynch. And anyone who is lurking will not be an asset to the town, so they're definitely good choices to pressure, if we don't have a lead on anyone else.
I know there was something else I thought of earlier, but I didn't write it down, and I didn't post it cause iGrok told us to stop posting until the game started -_-
Doesn't make a strong point about game length or how play style will be different, but he does bring up the idea of hidden word and messages for the first time. I like this, because it shows that he's actually thinking. He then makes a statement about pressure and lurkers, which I like, but is a general statement you see every game for the most part.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 22:38 Impervious wrote:
Guys, this talk about breadcrumbing is nice and all, but I don't see it going much further at the moment. We should probably wait a while before bringing this up, so we can catch a slip up. Especially if they are trying to hide their posting in the thread.
I think we should talk about the pros and cons of of double-checking anyone who gets the result of "insufficient analysis", to make it easier on the DT.
The pros of double checking are that you are more sure of the result. The cons are that you could be checking someone else instead, therefore checking more people. I really think the cons outweigh the pros in this case.
Thoughts?
Everyone was caught up on breadcrumbing and seemed stuck on the subject, so Impervious comes in and asks people about "insufficient analysis". I like this, because the breadcrumb discussion had stopped going anywhere, so he promotes a different town discussion instead, to get us back on track.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 22:57 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 22:47 GMarshal wrote:On April 25 2011 22:38 Impervious wrote:
Guys, this talk about breadcrumbing is nice and all, but I don't see it going much further at the moment. We should probably wait a while before bringing this up, so we can catch a slip up. Especially if they are trying to hide their posting in the thread.
I think we should talk about the pros and cons of of double-checking anyone who gets the result of "insufficient analysis", to make it easier on the DT.
The pros of double checking are that you are more sure of the result. The cons are that you could be checking someone else instead, therefore checking more people. I really think the cons outweigh the pros in this case.
Thoughts? I think the DT should just push for a lynch on the target 75% chance of having the cell leader is worth the gamble of accidentally getting a town player lynched, IMO. Sure it might suck for the town player getting the shit end of the stick, but hey, we die for the greater glory and all that. I also think this is usless discussion that allows scum to blend in, I'm sure the mafia is content to debate this to death, rather than worrying about us sabotaging their cutesy plans. Still I want to see what you guys awnser to Ace's question Actually, you're wrong with the "75%" thing. There's a 1/15 chance that the cell leader will be checked tonight (based on pure percentages). There's a 14/15 chance that a non cell leader will be checked tonight (also based on pure percentages). If the cell leader is checked, it will show up as insufficient analysis. If a non cell leader is checked, it'll show up as insufficient analysis in 25% of the checks. Ultimately, this means that a result of insufficient analysis tonight leads to a 22.2% chance of actually being the cell leader..... IT IS NOT 75%. However, lynching them is still the best move. Assuming 4 sleeper cells and the cell leader, out of a total of 15 people who could be checked, it adds up to about a 50% chance of hitting a red by lynching anyone who gets "insufficient analysis" tonight. When you add in factors like intentionally checking scummy players (increasing your chance of checking the right people), then this is by far the best choice.
Makes a comment about the statistics of the DT check. I don't think it says too much about his alignment, as it doesn't say anything about his own opinions, but I'm inclined to believe scum would rather just let town think that the old, incorrect, percentages were true, as they favoured scum more in my eyes.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 27 2011 23:25 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2011 22:49 GMarshal wrote:
I realize its night time, but that is no reason to shut up and stop discussion, we have all of twenty four hours to start deciding things like lynches and blue direction. For the sake of discussion I am going to post a list of people I think need DT checks, vigi shots and medic protects.
DT Checks
Jackal58 - Ace thinks Jackal has been acting scummy, for this reason alone I think a dt should take a look at jackal, the results would be interesting either way
Mr. Wiggles - I already pointed out that I am suspicious of him, it would be nice to know definitely, as I know wiggles has the potential to contribute to the town if he is town aligned, if he is not he is very good about scooting along with large vacuous posts
GMarshal - DTs should aways check the most vocal players. I consider myself a vocal player, therefore I should be checked
Ace - its Ace, as policy he should be checked. Also I find his retraction of the vote on jackal to be unexpected, from seeing previous games with Ace I would have expected him to stick to his guns with the lynch.
Impervious- he has many posts, yet oddly enough, not a single one of them stuck in my mind, to me this means his posts have been empty enough to not be memorable, I think that merits a check
Vigilante Shots - now its *really* debated whether it is best for vigilantes to shoot night one or not, if the vigi is not in imminent danger and is not confident on his mafia kill I belive in saving the shot for later, however some people subscribe to using it for people they would lynch on policy, e.g. liars, or lurkers. If a vigi *had* to fire tonight I would think the best shot would be at an inactive who might be lurking scum. That is the gist of my suggestions on here
Eiii- Lurking, pops up to defend himself, resumes lurking, not a town asset at the moment, so we can do without him
GGQ- more of the same deal with Eiii, lurking inactively, hasn't really weighed in on anything.
why- with a grand total of four posts all he has done is attack jackal, I dont think he is contributing and we can do without him
Vain- I see every one of his posts as either a rehash of old ideas or a non-contribution
darm- because I think it would be hilarious to have him die day one this game too (don't actually shoot him for that, it was a joke...)
Medic Protects
GMarshal- I dont want to die, please dont let me die, I'll go through mafia withdrawal again and it wont be pretty
Ace- he is Ace, high profile target and all that, I want him around in the late game.
Jackal (maybe) - he is a great endgame player, and I wouldn't mind having him around to scum-hunt in the late game, I don't know how likely it is he will be targeted though.
other than that I don't know who scum might go after to be honest, as they risk hitting one of their own whatever they choose to do
Alright, so take a gander and debate my list up and down, who did I forget to include ? Who did I include who shouldn't be there?
I guess we're going to use traditional mafia lingo in this game..... For the DT checks, I'd also want to know about Ace. He is a great player, which is why I'd want to be sure he's on my side. He's also acting a little weird, and I'm not sure what to make of it at the moment. He would be my check tonight, for sure, unless something happens between now and the end of the night. I'm also confused about why. From what I've seen in the thread, he's held in somewhat high regard (this is my first time playing with him, and I haven't observed a game where he played either, so I don't know myself). With having few posts, and generally unconstructive posting (I know most of mine are also pretty useless, but I've got a lot of them, so I'll eventually write something useful, much like how a room full of monkeys with typewriters will eventually come up with the entire work of Shakespeare), it seems like it would be pretty uncharacteristic of an experienced player. I dont think the vigi is in danger yet..... The chance of getting hit tonight/lyched tomorrow is pretty low, and it will probably be far more useful to have the kill around for later. Also, while there are players we can do without, I really think it would be better to lynch them rather than waste a vigi kill on. So I'd agree, unless the Vigi has a really good lead on one of the members of the mafia, it would be better to save the hit for later. Also, while it would be nice to have a medic on our side (among other roles, such as a veteran), we don't know for sure. It would be better to assume that we don't. We're going to need to assume that we'll lose someone tonight, and at this point, it seems to be pretty unlikely that the mafia will force a kill on one of their own. Another thing to worry about - the mafia just lost a member. Unless Rean was the first person contacted by the GF (which I find very unlikely, although it is possible that the GF made that big of a mistake), then there are probably only 2 more people who have to be contacted..... Which means the mafia should know who each other are. While it's not as useful as being able to discuss at night, like most mafia games, it will help them tremendously. We have to assume that for tomorrow night, they'll be able to be somewhat coordinated.....
Makes a point about Ace and why, original thoughts. Thinks vigi should save his shot, his reasoning make sense, and I like it. Scum would like vigs to shoot randomly night 1, as it gives a higher chance that they hit town. Also makes a good point that scum will know each other more quickly than they would before since Rean died.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 29 2011 01:37 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2011 00:45 GGQ wrote:
The simple fact that Ace didn't die is suspicious enough. Actually, as much as I think Ace is definitely a candidate for a lynch, this is a very bad reason for it. Out of the obvious top 4 players that the mafia would want to eliminate, 1 of them is gone. This does not automatically mean that the other 3 are suspicious.....
Points out bad logic and says why it's wrong.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 30 2011 09:08 Impervious wrote:
Guys, if bum is in fact the analyst, while there is only a ~25% chance that he's actually the cell leader, there is a ~50% chance of getting a red. That is a pretty damn good chance at the moment.
While it is stupid (imo) that bum claimed already, if he is the DT, he'll be a high priority target for the mafia, so they'll take him out at night.
I don't see the reasoning for a red claiming as DT. It seems like such a dumb move. It instantly paints a giant target on them when he's still alive the next day. And if the mafia don't eliminate him tonight, then they risk him actually finding a mafia (assuming that Jackal is green).
And, of course, if he's green, it could be an interesting play, if you really had a strong read on someone.
I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. Voting for someone other than Jackal, based on some kind of analysis, would be fine if you don't believe bum, but lynching him is really fucking dumb right now.
This is the post that made me change my mind about lynching bum for sure. He brings up good points, as to why we should have let him at least live throughout the night, and how that would be in town's best interests.
Conclusion: Not the most active contributor, but most of his posts are well-reasoned and thought-out. He brings up new ideas and promotes healthy town discussion, as well as pointing out any errors in reasoning that he sees to the benefit of town. Townie
I'm not sure how this is going to help you get a read on me, but there it is.
I also think we should be discussing vig/dt targets for any blues that are still alive.
I think a DT should 100% check Ace if they haven't already. As far as we know, there's no framers, so any positive result should be correct.
As for vigs, I think we should discuss the merits of shooting Jackal or not now that we know that Bum's result was true. If we don't want to shoot Jackal, I'd say that Darm is a good choice for any vig that feels the need to use his shot tonight.
|
|
|
Then why does the day post say that the sleeper agents shot one of their own?
|
Tonight, we continue our investigation of the Terrorist threat in Liquidville with a quick analysis of why Sleeper Cells are so effective.
Part of what makes a Terrorist sleeper agent so deadly is that individual Agents are not aware of each other's identity. Thus, when they are arrested, we cannot discover the names of other agents. We also cannot easily make assumptions based on their interactions with others. This makes Sleeper Cells very difficult to defeat. However, there are instances where this individualism can work against them as well.
Tonight, GGQ was found murdered on the street with a bullet lodged in his brain. A careful investigation of his home revealed unlicensed weapons, false passports, and blueprints of public offices. But what makes this even more interesting is that Deputy Director Chaoser denies that anyone from his office is responsible.
"If we were responsible, we would certainly claim full credit. And to be sure, we are out for blood after the murder of one of our agents. But find this situation to be more than satisfactory. Apparently, the terrorists have murdered one of their own! This is a terrific revelation for our society - we may still have a chance to defeat them after all."
The terrorist's lack of organization certainly provides me with a much-needed morale boost! Citizens, please keep your eyes peeled for ANY suspicious behavior. This is iGrok of the Channel 4 News team. You stay classy, Liquidville.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
