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On April 15 2011 09:08 Protactinium wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2011 08:56 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
You are not the DT. You don't know Coagulation is mafia. Please read my post. You're just ignoring logic and are building cases off of false assumptions. You were elected based on the premise that you think for yourself and don't sheep town. But clearly you are being tricked by GMarshal's and others' statements and have not taken a step back to evaluate the situation objectively. Let me prove it to you. Right now, you just stated 4 possibilities in your plan: Show nested quote +On April 15 2011 08:52 DoctorHelvetica wrote:DoctorHelvetica's Plan -GMarshal and the other (or if there are three all of them) check Coagulation on Night 2. -GMarshal announces his results. -If his results are incorrect, the other DT will claim and out him (and get medic protection that night) This is undeniably a winning scenario for town. Look at each scenario. GMarshal and Coagulation are SCUM.-GMarshal is forced to bus him. -If GMarshal lies about his claim to save Coagulation, the other DT calls him out and we lynch GMarshal and VIG HIT Coagulation. Netting a double scum kill. GMarshal is DT and Coagulation is scum-We lynch Coagulation and get a mafia kill. GMarshal is scum and Coagulation is blue-GMarshal is forced to lie and he will always lie that Coagulation is the veteran. -If Coagulation is actually a different green/blue role or an assassin the real DT will claim this and we lynch GMarshal. Both GMarshal and Coagulation are the roles they originally claimed.-We now have good information we can use to reevaluate Day 2 and we avoid wasting a lynch on Coag or Protactinium. However, there is 1 option you left out. Lets go with your stubborn assumption that I am not a DT, and that I in fact do not know Coagulation's role. If I am not DT, then you forgot the option that Coagulation is actually the Godfather. In this case, Scenario 1 would be false, and would work perfectly for the mafia. GMarshal would not be forced to bus him and will claim that Coagulation is a Vet. The other DTs will stay silent because they have no reason to believe that GMarshal is lying. Thus, Coagulation is saved for another day, town thinks he is "confirmed", and GMarshal is "proven" to be the DT. You did not consider this situation, which shows that you subconsciously believe my DT claim. I have already proven why GMarshal is blatantly lying about being DT. Please evaluate this situation objectively before jumping off a cliff in an attempt to be the town hero. You're trying to convolute things too much. The simplest answer is: I'm a DT, I checked Coagulation, and he is red.
But Protact, that scenario is not possible, if you are a DT. If you were a DT and Coag were the godfather then he would not have shown up red to you. The very fact that you are considering this case means that you cannot be the DT. It is a valid point that the town should definitely consider though.
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On April 15 2011 09:28 Rean wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2011 09:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 15 2011 09:18 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On April 15 2011 09:16 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On April 15 2011 09:11 chaoser wrote:If I am not DT, then you forgot the option that Coagulation is actually the Godfather. In this case, Scenario 1 would be false, and would work perfectly for the mafia. GMarshal would not be forced to bus him and will claim that Coagulation is a Vet. The other DTs will stay silent because they have no reason to believe that GMarshal is lying. Thus, Coagulation is saved for another day, town thinks he is "confirmed", and GMarshal is "proven" to be the DT This is true That's a good point. In fact coagulation being godfather would explain the major save. also I see absolutely no reason for you to tunnel coag unless you're the DT. If you're scum that only makes sense if you're busing him which is still a scum lynch for us. If you're DT it makes perfect sense. IF you're assassin it would have been easier to admit your lie and try a different bid for medic protection. Voting for Coagulation is the sensible thing to do. If you're wrong you're dead in the night anyway. If coag is GF he would've shown up as Veteran to the DT check, like Trance just pointed out. Yeah, i just realized this. Good call by TranceStorm. Except TranceStorm didn't even fucking read the first 4 words. "IF I'M NOT DT".
Hmm. I guess that takes away from the validity of my points, but I still don't trust that Proact is the actual DT since there have been slip-ups.
I have to go right now, so I'm going to vote for Coagulation. The arguments made against him were at the very least stronger than the ones made about LSB. LSB has been suspicious, but I suppose that we can clear him up with the incoming DT checks. Furthermore, I'm also heavily suspicious of Coag from his slip-ups in his claims earlier when he claimed vig and then vet (could have been a typo, but it tips the scales in his favor for me).
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Ok, I've been out a bit, but here are a couple of my thoughts on the issue at hand. First of all, simply because someone voted for coagulation does not clear them in my opinion. I don't really know the specifics of what GMarshal was planning, but he did try to pardon the lynch. I would imagine that his intention would be to try to end the lynch(?) right there meaning that he could save both himself and coag for the day's lynch. Luckily, his strategy didn't work out, but that means that the mafia probably didn't care where their votes were since they were expecting a pardon (they might not have been aware of GMarshal's strategy, but I doubt that).
On the topic of the lynch for today, I think we should wait for more solid accusations from perhaps what the detective/tracker/watchers discovered. Since we do have a full 48 hours, we should let those reports take precedence right now over our suspicions. The fact that the mafia only has 2 kp means that we should take everything a bit slower since we do have so many chances to catch them.
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On April 17 2011 00:18 Conversion wrote:
Woulf it even be detrimental to mislynch today?
If not, I'll be fine getting lynched since Barundar seems to believe that I'm mafia because of my play, regardless of what I tell him.
I'm detrimental to town at this point and I don't even know how to make a post without someone analyzing me/questioning me.
If you guys don't care about lynching mafia (as we lost quite a few over the past day/night), might as well lynch a lurker, like me.
But then again, lynching me gets town nowhere, but whatever.
I find your responses to being put under pressure very troubling though. In the very beginning, you seemed to be more active and willing to question the motives of other players. After Barundur started to put pressure on you, you put up the excuse that you were new and wanted to avoid being seen as scum repeatedly - until we've reached this moment where you are basically saying "lynch me, but you'll regret it!". To me, the fact that you have withdrawn as the game moved on is highly suspicious especially since each post seems to be a justification as to why you shouldn't have to make contentful posts in the future.
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On April 17 2011 02:41 M0nsterChef wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2011 14:24 Mig wrote:
Was anyone roleblocked last night? I believe barundar is the only one who said he was roleblocked n1. I was roleblocked.
So there were at least two roleblocks tonight. Which is strange considering that (as far as I know), Barundur was the only one who said that he was roleblocked after night 1. Did someone not claim that they were roleblocked on day 2?
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I'm going to vote for jaminz for today's lynch. Mig's post on jaminz is especially incriminating for me on jaminz' remarkable change in posting behavior. Considering how helpful he seemed to be in the previous game that Mig spotted (Haunted Mafia), you would expect that jaminz would contribute a little more in the current circumstances.
jaminz is a much stronger candidate than kevconsim for me. Reading from his previous games, his contribution always seems to be rather limited which makes him an extremely uncertain lynch target in my opinion.
On the issue of the roleblocks, I think we should wait another day before we make any judgments on whether m0nster or Barundur are lying. It seems especially strange that the number of people roleblocked should go from 1 to 2 (it seems far more likely for 2 people to have been roleblocked on the first night and only 1 on the 2nd night considering the collection of hits between the assassins). If there are indeed 2 roleblockers, why would they choose to not roleblock on the first day?
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On April 18 2011 08:09 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2011 07:54 TranceStorm wrote:
I'm going to vote for jaminz for today's lynch. Mig's post on jaminz is especially incriminating for me on jaminz' remarkable change in posting behavior. Considering how helpful he seemed to be in the previous game that Mig spotted (Haunted Mafia), you would expect that jaminz would contribute a little more in the current circumstances.
jaminz is a much stronger candidate than kevconsim for me. Reading from his previous games, his contribution always seems to be rather limited which makes him an extremely uncertain lynch target in my opinion.
On the issue of the roleblocks, I think we should wait another day before we make any judgments on whether m0nster or Barundur are lying. It seems especially strange that the number of people roleblocked should go from 1 to 2 (it seems far more likely for 2 people to have been roleblocked on the first night and only 1 on the 2nd night considering the collection of hits between the assassins). If there are indeed 2 roleblockers, why would they choose to not roleblock on the first day? It's possible they had a strong blue read on one of their night one targets, like Pandain, and both hit and roleblocked someone.
I had missed that option, but it does seems unlikely - especially on night 1. Considering that vigilantes could not shoot yet, the only reason why they would hit and roleblock the same person was if they suspected that their target was a medic (since the actions of dead detectives/trackers/watchers are useless if they are dead). But the reasoning for roleblocking a medic on night 1 seems incredibly faulty since the chance that the mafia would hit someone medic protected on night 1 was very slim.
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On April 18 2011 08:20 AirbladeOrange wrote:
I stated earlier that all of jaminz's "scummy" posts really point much more to him being a novice at the game than anything else.
I would agree with that if we had no knowledge of jaminz' prior Mafia playstyle, but Mig's analysis is pretty telling. jaminz has previously posted in another mafia game (Haunted Mafia) with some helpful analysis at a pretty consistent rate - not at all what he is doing here. The novice excuse definitely does not work in this example, like it might to m0nster, since we have seen him actively posting beforehand.
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Hey guys, sorry about being inactive for the past 2-3 days. I've just been busy with personal stuff. Luckily, the thread doesn't seem to have moved too much, which makes catching up so much easier.
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On April 20 2011 08:43 jaminz wrote:
Those were just some basic notes I made, as I'm not totally sure what I should be looking for when analyzing someone. I guess the fact that he's also posted relatively little, but mentioned early on that he had played mafia before could point to him being a mafia player trying to lie low though.
I can explain myself. I played a few times of TL Mafia roughly 2 years ago where I was an extreme lurker. Ever since then, I've played a few games of mafia on some websites where the games only last roughly 30 minutes long. With my current time commitments, I'm finding it a bit difficult to read up on the thread and respond at the same rate that other players are doing it at.
Speaking of which, I had voted for you earlier because you had such a dramatic change in personality between a prior game that you had played and this current game. However, you seem to have returned to posting helpful analysis so I'm willing to trust you if you explain what caused your relative inactivity earlier in the game.
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On April 23 2011 15:38 Barundar wrote:
permission to edit please.
lol why? I think things are pretty straight-forwards from here, lynch AO for today and then go through the list of possible people. If AO is mafia, we get so many mislynches that I think it becomes almost impossible for the mafia to win.
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On April 23 2011 08:57 jaminz wrote:
Is there any way a mafia member could have killed someone without leaving a trace they were there? The only way I could see Airblade not being mafia is if that happened and Airblade watched that mafia member. But if he was roleblocked, he wouldn't have tracked anyone, correct?
I'm not sure about this, but I think this would be possible if the mayor were the one performing the action since I think the bodyguards deflect the watchers. But considering Airblade's claim that he was roleblocked, I don't think that is a likely possibility for this killing at least.
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On April 23 2011 15:56 Barundar wrote:All good then  Jaminz it's you we will take a look at if AO flips green/blue ^^. If AO is red, DrH is most likely town, considering AO was the only one who thought he could push for DrH through my purely mechanic posts. Funny how AO refuses to call jaminz a lieing scum even when jaminz pegs him as mafia. Curious to see how this works out.
Well AO did adamantly declare earlier that jaminz was not mafia, so for him to reverse on that would be equally as suspicious haha. But then again, his tracker claim would make no sense in that context. He would have seen jaminz visit someone and would be really suspicious rather than protective i suppose? I guess asking both players to out their night actions would resolve the issue 100%, but I don't think we would get a truthful list from AO.
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EPT
