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TL Mafia XXXVII

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 19 2011 16:16 GMT
#132
/in
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 23 2011 06:44 GMT
#381
On February 23 2011 15:23 gryffindor wrote:
with 30, i doubt there are 8
5-6 is much more likely, with 6 being more likely, unless they start with roles (which I doubt)
due to the mechanics

5 with an SK I would believe would be balanced as well, but i'm seeing 6 and 2.5-3kp, or something like "you may not kill 3 people" as 3 kp is a bit much right now

we will learn soon enough. It is also possible they get to pick to be permanent, or nightly. I'm not quite sure on the mechanic. Lets assume it is permanent, and they pick a GF and a role reverser
they'd still have 1.5kp which would round up to 2 afaik

The best thing to do is to not come out if you're a hatter, for sure
If you're a cop, I wouldn't come out unless you have a guilty, or are pressured
I wouldn't ever claim as medic, unless someone you protected and saved is up for lynch
Veteran is OK to claim, many setups have bulletproofs claiming first
Vigilante is OK to claim TOMORROW if you claim who you are going to kill - Don't claim today, as you can't kill tonight


Translation: Ignore everything I say.

Are you scum or just insane?
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 23 2011 06:54 GMT
#391
I'm voting Chaoser because this post sucks and reeks of red.

On February 23 2011 12:40 chaoser wrote:
Ok, so like Gmarshal said, we shouldn't depend on blues this game. Especially since RoL specifically said this game was to punish us for what happened in Salam. At the same thing, I don't think the mafia powers are all THAT powerful. Let them frame away, that's one less death to worry about. PMs are allowed but PLEASE don't just give out crazy info in them (roleclaim, etc.). The point of town is not to have 1 leader controlling everything but small circles that are separated so that if one goes down, the others can still operate. Let's all work together and not let a few players handle all the work (which always seems to happen). This means contributing pleaseee.


Repeating something others have said? Check
Saying generic obvious advice? Check
Making it look like u r saying something but not really? Check

vote Chaoser
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 24 2011 03:14 GMT
#577
lol there's no need for pm circles? ya ok.

So you think that mafia will have no trouble at all keeping up with their town portrayal and pm portrayal and making sure both are congruent? lol Of course this is harder for mafia than just worrying about not being caught in the thread, why would we not do it.

The main, only danger is that townies would blabber too much about their role or trust too easily in their partners and be manipulated to mafia ends. That is why whoever you pm needs to be treated as another suspect, someone that you are trying to get extra information out of, not a long time buddy etc. I don't particularly care for randomized groups or whatever; I pm who I want. But it's a good initiative, the only real unique contribution from anyone.

The real scrutiny should be on those who are dissing it for terrible reasons. Some are probably town but they are pushing things mafia want and I wouldn't be surprised if a mafia or two is amongst them.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 24 2011 03:48 GMT
#595
On February 24 2011 12:16 annul wrote:
oh hey another smurf

why the fuck does everyone smurf? why are you all afraid of your skill?


cute way to sidetrack the debate off your scummy play. "HE POSTED LOGIC SMURFFFFF AHHHHH IGNORE ME" Sorry if I forgot about tl mafia and been busy playing at epicmafia and mafiascum for the past year.

Naturally you don't actually respond to what I said. Even more interesting, a smurf would be someone more knowledgeable than a new player. For you to think that I am a smurf immediately means that you felt what I said had merit. Thus that means you know better, which means you are scum bullshiting.

vote## Annul

Im gonna knock you off your broomstick boy
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 25 2011 00:21 GMT
#755
On February 25 2011 08:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
##Vote Annul

I'm not entirely convinced he is scum, and this vote may change before the deadline. As it is though, lynching annul will clear up the thread a bit and make it easier to find scum.

I honestly think between GMarshal and Gryf, one is probably scum. I'm suspicious of both right now, gryf for pushing bad ideas and being wishy-washy, and GMarshal for the timing of his analysis on annul.


how nice of you to pop up with this laughably confused post. "not entirely convinced" about annul, huh? Well of ur 10 in game posts (lets compare this to 30 pre-game spam posts now) ur whole agenda has been subtly pushing doubt on aggressive people in general, then proceeding to softly cast doubt on annul. Then you quote gryffindor when he connects annul to GMarshal without adding any insight. What the heck are you trying to do here? Combined with the above quoted post, this is absolutely scummy. If you think one of GMarshal/gryf is scum, why aren't you voting for them? If gryf connected GMarshall and annul, why do you NOT have annul in your "probably scum" pile? if you think lynching annul will clear up the thread, why not vote for gryffindor, who fits both categories of a) spamming up the thread, and b) you think is "probably scum"? Your logic reaks of scum. Burn the witch.

##Unvote
Vote## Mr. Wiggles
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 25 2011 03:05 GMT
#806
WHERES YOUR BROOMSTICK NOW.

Also medic should not protect foolishness.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 25 2011 03:21 GMT
#816
The important thing i think to realize from this lynch is that mafia are poorly coordinated and do not have much influence in the town. At least in the games Ive played and seen mafia never die day one, even super obvious ones like annul cause their team can manipulate stuff and start some other dumbass bandwagon

This means that the remaining mafia have very low profiles in the thread. Those players - low post counts, non committal players, useless people, are who DTs cops should check and we should consider for lynch tomorrow.

Also given the unlikelihood that mafia tried to bandwagon annul off, until maybe it was assured he would die, i wouldn't worry about icemac or gryffindor being scum, as bad as they might be playing.

Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 25 2011 03:31 GMT
#824
On February 25 2011 12:25 Coagulation wrote:
SOMETHING IS NOT RIGHT ABOUT THIS LYNCH. DO NOT BE FOOLED BY THIS.


It's not a big deal. A mafia died cause a lot of people didnt like him. No need to make it more complicated. Occams razor yo~

It isn't as if LSB was the only one who got annul killed either he was just one voice among many. It'd be different if LSB was the one who started everything but that aint the case. And anyway its not like theres much to gain for mafia to do this. Whether lsb is mafia or not is irrelevant really at this point. Others are looking far more guilty.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 25 2011 03:41 GMT
#827
On February 25 2011 12:27 Beneather wrote:
Ooooh, I think that we should lynch Ser Aspi next he tried pushing the lynch to Mr.Wiggles :O!
What a huge step for town lmfao. :D


lol theres a difference between "pushing a lynch" onto someone with no votes and 2 1/2 hrs remaining in lynch and wanted to see someone reacts when annul is sure to die already.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 28 2011 00:04 GMT
#1069
god what a mess. I go away for the weekend and this is what's happened? How did we ever get annul

Lets break this down and look at it objectively.

1. We lynch annul.
2. Mafia are incapable of getting the lynch off of annul. This means they do not have players who are prominent or have a lot of influence.
3. Suspicion turns on the most prominent players who are active and have influence.

Logic does not compute. We should be targeting the INACTIVES, or the fakers at least because they would be the ones who could not get the lynch off annul. But no of course not you have to go for the most prominent people on the off chance that annul might have been bussed. Why the hell would mafia deliberately sacrifice a member on day 1 when they have an assured green lynch normally. Town cred is really not that important.

Shut up with the conspiracy theories. Yes LSB/etc might be mafia. But what is more likely. LSB/Barundar, PROMINENT PEOPLE, are scum, or joe2 posts is scum? Simple solutions work best. Granted LSB has a bit of a negative influence on the town because he keeps trying to hype himself up to absurd proportions far out of alignment with what he did, seriously hes like a professional marketer, but that's not remotely worthy of a lynch.

How about this. I got someone better.




##vote: jbright

Why? He only has 4 real posts, a dodger vote, and he likes to talk nonsense and ignore the big arguments.

On February 24 2011 12:07 JBright wrote:
So far the game has been dominated by a few very vocal players, but I'm not sure how much progress we are making since it seems they're mostly arguing the about the same thing again and again.

Yes, there are a few inactive players (myself included up to this post). I will probably give one of them a pressure vote until they post or a substantially better candidate pops up. Maybe I'm a bit naive or just inexperienced at this game, but none of the posts so far seem too scummy to me.


On February 25 2011 14:27 JBright wrote:
Yay town. Looks like I ended up wasting my vote on myself since I forgot to change my vote.

If annul did slip up and there are up to 5 members in a mafia family...does that mean we could potentially have 1/3 of the players as mafia with only 2 families? Since this is a punishment game in some sense, I think that there must be more difficulties than just the special scum powers. Having potentially 10 scum means that it'll be more dangerous to trust the people in PM circles than expected if we do get around to forming them. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how night 1 goes and play from there.


On February 25 2011 15:36 JBright wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 15:16 seRapH wrote:
On February 25 2011 14:27 JBright wrote:
Yay town. Looks like I ended up wasting my vote on myself since I forgot to change my vote.

If annul did slip up and there are up to 5 members in a mafia family...does that mean we could potentially have 1/3 of the players as mafia with only 2 families? Since this is a punishment game in some sense, I think that there must be more difficulties than just the special scum powers. Having potentially 10 scum means that it'll be more dangerous to trust the people in PM circles than expected if we do get around to forming them. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how night 1 goes and play from there.

Do you seriously believe this? Do you really think annul would "accidentally" let slip how many mafia there are? I know its wifom but I'm more inclined to believe that there are more than 5 mafia.

Two families... I have no idea where you came up with that. 2 families of five pretty much DOOM the town of twenty completely.

Also no I don't actually believe icemac's mafia, but was happy to see the pressure rising on him. I was not, however, pleased with the lack of reaction he gave. Icemac, please prove me wrong this game and don't be useless.


This is my second game and I really have no idea what to expect... I've read somewhere that there could be games with competing mafia families, but I guess that not a common occurrence here.

As far as the "slip" goes, I guess it really is going to be wifom. If that gave away too much information (as to spoil the game), one of the mods could have potentially edited it out. But now that so many people have seen it, any modifications would be extremely suspicious. As a general rule, it is probably true that scum lie a lot. But even 5 mafia members seem like a good approximation (if 10 is too much), although it is definitely safer to assume that 5 is the lower limit of the number of scum.


On February 27 2011 23:04 JBright wrote:
A lot of interesting arguments are being thrown around, but none of them are particularly compelling enough to throw any one person to the top. For now, I'll go with the possible scum slip and vote for icemac.

##vote: icemac


You reference multiple times how newbie you are. Gee, why would you do that. I saw this a lot on other mafia sites and guess what, scum almost every time. Townies wouldnt need to do that, but scum sure might.

Next, what have you actually said. WAit, I got it. NOTHING. In your several paragraphs you have written absolutely nothing zilch nada of value. You pressure vote some safe inactive lynch and dont take a stand, note that you are inactive very early on, and don't do anything about it. Inconsistency much? You don't take sides, you dont have an opinion that means anything, and you dont really care about whats going on. It's like you're off in your own little la-la-land aka scum irc channel chortling.

Half of your "contribution" involves hypothesizing about some fantasy where there are two mafia teams lol and maybe a mod edit or something but you dont really know? That alone doesnt mean enough, you could just be stupid, but with everything else, it aint looking good brodooski.

You then do absolutely nothing with your vote today. You dont take a standard, you dont take a side, you just say "HRM I DUNNO ILL VOTE THIS GUY CAUSE I DONT KNOW AND DONT CARE ABOUT THE TOWN TO WANT TO KNOW"

To top it off I looked at the last game you played, orgah mafia. You were a town so far as i can tell with those screwy rules, and none of these habits showed up. You posted decisive stuff man. You didnt bullshit about how new you are. You didnt make excuses. But now you are. Guess why? Cause you're scum

Here are some portions from his town play:

+ Show Spoiler [orgah] +

On February 12 2011 10:56 JBright wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2011 02:47 kitaman27 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 11 2011 15:35 JBright wrote:
Since everyone has a specified role to take, will looking at past games still be important for analysis? People could be playing up their characters and forcefully change their posting habits, but that's hard to tell.



Can you guys cut it out? I'm starting to think you're doing this on purpose.....


Show nested quote +
On February 12 2011 10:36 Misder wrote:
To all those that have played pevergreen's previous games- are there any chars that are assumed scum?



Whoa there. Don't know if those are just part of your characters, but you don't have to start accusing people as mafia just because of it. A character and someone's alignment should be completely separate things (at least that's what I think), so no need to jump the gun.

Hmm, so far the votes are still looks to be pretty distributed other than Zerroth. Unless something drastic happens within the next 7-8 hours, he will probably be lynched. I guess I'll just vote for someone who is inactive but still have no votes yet.

Vote: Insanious


On February 13 2011 03:31 JBright wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 13 2011 02:37 deconduo wrote:
Interesting. Twins are usually of opposing alignments so I had a look at Lunar's Posts:

+ Show Spoiler +

On February 11 2011 10:00 LunarDestiny wrote:
Ok. I got a fucked up pm. AND my character happens to be gay. WTF.


On February 11 2011 10:07 LunarDestiny wrote:
Everyone, first find your character here.

forums.totalwar.org/vb

I found mine pretty easily. Also will name claiming be any help in this game?


On February 11 2011 13:01 LunarDestiny wrote:
Coag is actually very good at scum hunting. He played ton of games.

He just don't like to write long post to convince others.


On February 11 2011 13:13 LunarDestiny wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 11 2011 13:03 thefluffyone93 wrote:
I say pever, you didn't burden someone with the role that forces the player to write in huge, multi-colored text, and occasionally post meme pictures, did you?

Because that would be very.....annoying.

Put foot in mouth.

I herd you liek me, so I put me into me to make meme.


On February 11 2011 13:28 LunarDestiny wrote:
There are also no ‘joker’ or ‘actor’ roles. No one will obtain victory by being lynched.

Just want to restate this because I will be force to do a couple of things very silly. My character is fucking stupid.


On February 12 2011 05:17 LunarDestiny wrote:
I will be busy throughout the first day. I'll catchup on monday (day2?).

I see people are exerting huge pressure on one person. To me, Zerroth is playing the lurking/inactive style like the last game. It'll be great if it will make him more active but it is like mafia can slip by unnoticed if it stays like this.

Also placing a vote to avoid modkill.

Vote: LunarGotNoDestiny




He made no particular effort to change the lynch which leads me to believe that he didn't know he was linked to zerroth. Considering it took a measly 5 votes to lynch zerroth it doesn't look like mafia (or any other party) made a significant attempt to redirect the lynch.

Another point to notice is that there was only 16 real votes placed out of 30, and these were spread out over 11 candidates. This is shockingly bad play. We need to be a lot more united to make any headway in this game, especially considering that there are probably several ~3 person factions with alternative victory conditions. If we allow scum/3rd party to lead the lynch wherever they want we are totally screwed. I know this was day one and there isn't a lot to go on, but we seriously need to pick it up a bit.



I've thought about the different alignments for twins as well, but it will be hard to determine anything, other than suspicious play, until the first night is over. The activity so far in this game has come in waves...a whole bunch of posts in a short period and then nothing for a few hours.

I'm still curious as to why Coagulation didn't put down a vote. Several players' votes were discounted (late or wrong format) but they at least tried. A second day without votes would mean a modkill, so I'll be looking closely at those people for the second day.


On February 14 2011 08:23 JBright wrote:
It's been surprisingly quiet for this day cycle. That makes the voting a bit harder. Since the first set of modkills can potentially happen tonight, I'll try to vote for someone who has a counted vote for day 1. Hmm, the OMGUS votes from beefy and thefluffyone seems kinda weird to me (they responded in a similar manner, but could be part of their characters). Since fluffy already has a vote, I'll go for beefy.

Vote: Beefy187




Look how he actually takes a stance. Yes he has weird penchants but he doesn't vote the bandwagons and has the guts to state his own opinions and make real choices.

Folks this is a guy trying to hide and pulling it off because you are so concentrated on trying to chop off any blade of grass that grows above the rest.

[image loading]


Im coming for you scum.

Annul[ and his broomstick
Jbright
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
February 28 2011 01:56 GMT
#1100
On February 28 2011 10:37 seRapH wrote:
##Vote: icemac
In case it takes a while to read, was kinda gone the whole weekend kinda


Yeah what a coincidence. Heres what happened I bet.

Seraph pops in mafia irc.

HURRY DUDE LD IS GONNA GET LYNCHED VOTE FOR ICEMAC.

OK GUYS I GOT DA PERFECT EXCUSE. A PLACEHOLDER VOTE


I'd rather kill Jbright but apparently lynch closes soon and LD is a decent target so.

vote##: LundarDestiny
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 01 2011 02:53 GMT
#1212
[image loading]


Posting now in case I die. I do realize that this town seems to only care about big name players and big name spammers but maybe, just maybe...this badass picture will help save the day.

What we learned day 1-


Mafia couldn't save annul. Therefore mafia must not be able to influence the votes the way they want. That means most, if not all of their remaining members, must be in the afk/lurker group. Thus, the highest priority focus should be there. Simple logic right?

Apparently not to the geniuses who think that annul was bussed because obviously scum want to just throw away an active member when they could otherwise get out of jail for free? All for some petty little trust? Not like being right once means anyone will be right again. Lightning doesn't always strike twice.

LSB/Barundar mgiht be mafia, might not. But others are far far more likely. So ignore them for now.

What we learned day 2-

Nothing except that the town is incompetent and focuses on the easy lynches instead of the guys who dont want to stick out. In short do the opposite of this and ur good.




Some more bad posts:

On March 01 2011 04:42 LunarDestiny wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2011 00:31 deconduo wrote:
On March 01 2011 00:19 Jackal58 wrote:
On February 28 2011 20:13 deconduo wrote:
First of all we have Jackal. He claimed posting PMs is scummy. When asked to explain the logic behind it he dodged the question twice then posted this gem:

On February 25 2011 01:06 Jackal58 wrote:
Decon- We'll simply have to agree to disagree on the posting of PM's. I think it's a bad idea. You don't. I'm over it. It's not an issue worth arguing.




I didn't dodge it. You just didn't like my answer. Ya the one you skipped.
And now you're in a pissing contest over the content of a posted PM.
Have fun.
We got scum here folks.


Here was the post in question:

On February 25 2011 00:46 deconduo wrote:
On February 24 2011 22:41 Jackal58 wrote:
On February 24 2011 22:35 deconduo wrote:
Jackal, you haven't clarified this:

+ Show Spoiler +
On February 24 2011 05:31 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 02:18 Jackal58 wrote:
On February 24 2011 02:13 GMarshal wrote:
On February 24 2011 02:11 Jackal58 wrote:
On February 24 2011 02:00 deconduo wrote:
On February 24 2011 01:56 Jackal58 wrote:
I have received a PM from GMarshall as well. Whoopee. I will probably even answer him.
But posting quotes and copies of PMs is a very scummy thing to do. You can make them say anything. Please stop.


What?

If someone manipulates or changes PMs to say what they want that's a scum caught straight away.

Also as easy for 2 scum or more to edit and post PMs to kill town


While I appreciate the sentiment, I don't think that's an issue right now, even if that did happen, when the townie flipped green we would immediately go after the people who posted the PM

I understand that. But if we get in that habit scum will use it to kill us at endgame. Better not doing it at all.


So your reasoning is:

Two mafia might edit a PM and post it to gang up on a townie to get them lynched in a lylo situation so therefore don't do it at all ever. Anyone who does post a PM is scummy.


This is so flawed I don't even know where to begin....



What is your logic behind telling people not to quote or post PMs? It honestly does not make any sense to me. It feels an irrational conclusion to jump to.

I did explain it. Go ahead and post PM content. Go ahead and get comfy with it. Go ahead and watch scum use that to destroy town at end game.
I think it's a horrid idea.


I honestly 100% don't understand your logic. From what I can gather you are saying the following. In a lylo situation, 2 mafia 3 town say. Person A + B post PMs showing C is mafia. C denies it and says they are faked. Now according to you,

i)If no PMs were posted previously, people A+B would be lynched.
ii)If a couple of PMs had been posted previously, and people were 'comfy' with it, C would be lynched.

How you managed to get here I have no clue whatsoever. There must be some huge step in logic that I'm missing as to what universe you think this would happen in.


-Your 'explanation' was mafia would use it to destroy town at end game. I gave you an example of your supposed endgame situation. You completely ignored it and simple put it down to opinion.

I'll give my take on this...

Posting pm for no reason is a bad thing because it will reveal information to mafia.
However, there are many circumstances where posting pm is good.

For example, look how Foolishness post his pm with me and find that I didn't do what exactly I promised. That generated one point saying why i am mafia.

If he is mafia and I town, and edited the pm, I can denied it and there goes 1 mafia of the two.
If I am mafia and he town. If I denied the pm and same 1 mafia out of the two.
If both are town, I shouldn't lie.
If both are mafia, mafia is stupid.

Icemac also gave out all pm before he died. It give additional information for town to work with and town can use those to accuse or defend people. Taking those pms into the grave is not as useful.


Your case describes that mafia edit the pm and use them for the late game. This situation only works if the other person mafia is editing the pm from is afk and don't claim the pm is edited. This is huge risk from mafia and certainly mafia would take unless they are desperate.

Your other case say that 2 or more mafia talk in circles and post pm to make themselves look good. This case stands because it would be hard to prove these pms wrong. Also even revealing one of them mafia doesn't prove that the other is mafia believe it could very well be legit pm between mafia and town.

But if we just compare the pro and con of post pm. i find it is beneficial for them to be posted given there is a reason.

So I have to agree with deucenuo on this subject and asking you to describe why it is bad to post pm. Also give your reasons why posting pm is bad. (Does the con outweigh the pro?)


So much you could weigh in on, and you write an essay that boils down:

"posting pm's when theres a reason that gives town more reliable information is good"

Of all the things you could have posted on LIKE SUSPECTS AND WHO YOU THINK IS MAFIA AND WHY, you said something as useless and obvious as that, and make it look like you are good Sir Sherlock Holmes solving cases left and right.

You sir are trying to blend in. Who might want to blend in? DRRR I wonder. Maybe scum?

On February 28 2011 11:39 seRapH wrote:
Ok, all caught up.

LSB vs Barundar- LSB is the one who really pushed the annul lynch. That alone makes me doubt that he's mafia, regardless of how scummy the rest of his play so far might seem. Barundar, on the other hand, doesn't have the cleanest record right now. I'd be ok with lynching Barundar, since LSB has already caught one.

icemac- Getting scummier, really starting to suspect him now. It doesn't help that his lynch is meeting with a lot of resistance. Especially this late in the day. Feels like someone's deliberately diverting the lynch off of him, doesn't it? Personally, I say we go for it. When there's post that triggers a swing in votes this late in the game it feels super suspicious.


Also, it's the end of the day. The entire day cycle was spent with great bickering and squabbles between two parties. Everything was dandy, with two camps clearly lined up. No matter who we lynched, we'd have much more information to look at. But now people are jumping off and actively diverting the lynch. At the end of the day. For no reason other than because foolishness said so.

I hate that. I respect foolishness and all as a player, but that does not mean that we should just blindly do what he tells us. This isn't a battle between a few "priority 1" players, this is isn't even a battle between "priority 1+2" players, this is a game where YOU decide who YOU think is mafia. Is anyone actually voting for people they think are really mafia? Because at this rate, we're going to lose all the progress we made today. And that's bullshit.


Priority 1 players? Dont make me laugh at LSB's marketing bullshit. Foolishness made a good case, he seems to know his stuff, and we listened. Nothing more to it, LD was a better lynch than icemac/barundar/lsb.

Your entire post boils down to: "Hold my hand and dont hurt me if i im wrong but maybe icemac or barundar might possibly be mafia but i dont want to take an active stance and point da finger. OH AND DONT TRUST FOOLISHNESS." Of course scum wouldnt want us to trust someone who can make posts like that. Please explain why a townie would make his most impactful post consisting of such drivel that helps the mafia. Oh wait, you cant.

On February 28 2011 23:08 JBright wrote:
There isn't all that much for me to say in this situation. I think my play so far have been a hindrance to town - at best a bad townie and at worst a lurking scum. Both situations won't bring me to a situation of being nightkilled, so I'll assume that I'll be up for a lynch by the next day cycle if there are no better candidates.


Are you joking? I mean seriously, you have to be kidding? could you make it anymore obvious you dont care at all about the town? You point out how useless you are, and that's it? You dont make any attempt to do....ANYTHING?.You don't weigh in on what you think of the days events, who you think is guilty or innocent, or anything besides how useless you are, which we know already. Great! If you are a townie i dont ever want to play with you again, but you arent, so its cool ill see you next game brodooski.




Conclusions

Axis of Evil

Jbright -Doesnt care about the town
Seraph -his (few) posts help scum
LunarDestiny - tries to look like hes being helpful while hiding that he really isnt

Both seraph and lunar are clearly very active and engaged as evidenced by their pregame posts and suddenly arent after getting their roles. Jbright is obvious as all hell, nothing more should be said.


There are other people who deserve attention too, eg Why for his original bandwagon on icemac when annul was under heat and penchant for only pressuring innocents, but stick with the axis of evil for now and maybe throw a check on our good Question pal if he doesn't die. Remember, highest priority/most guilty people first. Anyone else after.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 01 2011 09:00 GMT
#1264
That just confirmed it scum. You're going down. I am not letting you out of my sight

Let's break down exactly what you said. Cause most of it is just irrelevant fluff and we need a translator for scum posts.

    1 "my personality is indecisive and outspoken." Except you arent outspoken this game at all, you are the opposite. Mafia are also much more inclined to deflate themselves to compensate for any guilt or to avoid suspicion in my experience.
    2 "im not giving up im just useless but dont blame me for it!" You say you are better at thinking about the situation, but you have given almost no input about situations. In other words you are bullshitting to save your ass.
    3 "ima restate foolishness's arguments and add a little confusion to them. I need to make sure i say 'im not sure' a lot so people dont call me out on anything i might say"
    4 "ima put doubt on some people with absolutely no reasoning to back it up but wait dont take it too seriously i dont want any backlash!1!111!!"
    5 "random probability crap." wtf this doesnt mean anything just more nonsense
    6 "add in some completely unrelated dr h quote and talk about worshipping confirmed innocents to make your post look cooler and longer"
    7 "LD might be good to kill but i dunno ill wait for him to post so i can change my stance without looking bad"


You said that little in one of the largest posts in this thread. WTF?

You post no real strong opinion and you don't want to take a stance. You just stated a bunch of garbage and tried to avoid getting blamed for how useless you are. You still don't care about the town, but, this time, you are trying a lot harder to make it look like you are.

In the same vein that is a post considerably longer than any post I have found of yours in any game. Like, many times larger. Guess what, you felt the heat and OVERCOMPENSATED. You probably even had your buddies help you out in constructing it.

##vote: Jbright

Don't worry about LD, Seraph or anyone else. This guy just gave himself up and we can only kill one guy at a time. Don't split the vote and let the mafia choose who to kill. One guy at a time.


I am coming for you.

[image loading]
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 03 2011 01:01 GMT
#1442
After seeing all these silent voters come out of the woodwork and vote jbright with no rationale Im feeling rather uneasy. My analysis of him was hardly foolproof, i just saw some shady points and wanted to push his buttons a little and I'm not convinced after what's happened.

Seraph on the other hand, let's just say he's pushing some agendas that help the mafia and the contrast of his spamminess pregame and total silence in game is too striking. Jbright might be just a useless townie who I hope fixes his act pronto, but Seraph has something to hide.

##vote: Seraph

Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 04 2011 02:36 GMT
#1545
Don't have much time but in case I die this is very simple kill Lastargument and Kevconsim in whichever order you please. Both are guilty of last minute silent voter hops on Jbright to save Seraph. Kev hopped on the annul bandwagon as the last voter when it was 100% clear annul would die. And just as importantly their words are incongruent with their actions to a very scummy degree.

Don't worry about people who have more complex cases like cubedin. Kill these two first.


Annul and his broomstick
Seraph

Kevconsim
Lastargument


[image loading]
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 05 2011 09:12 GMT
#1657
Allow to me explain what happened on day 3. After day 2 foolishness and I talked and decided on a plan for day 3. We had 3 suspects, jbright, seraph, and Lunardestiny. We were certain at least 1-2 were guilty, but doubted all 3 were. Though if all 3 were, well, sweet?

So what we decided to do was present the town with multiple options rather than forcing 1 person to die and see what happened in an effort to use the day's proceedings to make the best lynch. Naturally if one was mafia and the other town, mafia would push the town lynch pretty heavily. Keep in mind Jbright, when posed with the alternative of Icemac, got almost no support day 2. Yet suddenly when he was up against the alternative of Seraph, he got a lot more questionable voters with bs reasons and we very narrowly lynched Seraph.

In other words, we set a trap, and the mafia fell for it hook line and sinker. Scum down, and lots of juicy information. This is what we planned to do again today with kevconsim and lastargument, but foolishness was shot and I cant do that alone now. So lets look at the key data - given how close the lynch was my guess is 3 mafia were on jbright and 1 elsewhere, but at the very least 2 mafia were on the jbright list. For now I'll focus on the two highest priority ones and will return to the others after the lynch.

Let's look at the important people on the jbright train.

Jbright:

GMarshal
CubEdIn
chaoser
kevconsim

LastArgument

And who is voting for and putting a lot of suspicion LSB/LA?

Gmarshal
Chaoser.
kevconsim


It smells more than fishy. It smells scum. Note how chaoser has convienently ignored kevconsim completely while putting doubt on so many other players. And also, mafia can't afford to 'bus for trust' because they lose a kp when they lose their next member, gf or no (3.5 -> 2.5 currently).

Keep in mind some other things:

1. lsb couldn't shoot night 1, was roleblocked night 2, and thus couldn't shoot until today. His behavior may be screwy but his explanation is possible.
2. There are definitely more power roles given mafia started with 3.5 kp and all these fancy abilities. Only three have been accounted for so far with no other claims, so it would make sense that at least one if not both might be telling the truth. I am assuming, of course, that our dear mod isn't insane and I hope that is a safe assumption.
3. LSB has voted for both mafia to die and didn't vacillate. His behavior is again, screwy and it doesn't make him innocent by any means, but you can't ignore this fact either.
4. LSB is getting bandwagoned HARD. kevconsim, on the other hand, is scarcely getting any attention.

I'm not saying I'm certain lsb/la are innocent, as quite frankly up until this day's proceedings I thought LA guilty and LSB questionable, but it is FAR more probable that kevconsim and chaoser are guilty. As I judge it will be too difficult to convince everyone to kill that scumbo chaoser out of the blue in less than a day, kevconsim it is. Chaoser day 5.




To be sure, let's look at kev's wildly incongruent behavior.

Votes:

Day 1: Icemac -> Annul - At the last minute when annul was 100% dead. Seems like a scum move. He claimed he wanted annul dead in pm's but his thread behavior was 1 post on icemac then a last minute switch to annul. Not consistent.
Day 2: Icemac
Day 3: Jbright

Definitely doesn't look good for him.

This is also my first time playing Mafia so i am kinda getting used to how to play....I am pretty sure you are town. I am pretty sure you are blue too but i do not know which one.


Contrast this with:

I am a regular townie so i dont really do anything at night right?
+ multiple instances of claiming how new he is.

WTF? So you have someone who insists on being extremely new that is simultaneously capable of saying 'pretty certain someone is town and pretty certain he is blue' in pms. I'm sorry but this is laughable. He has an agenda. He's hiding something.

Lastly, his logic of voting Jbright is extremely flawed as evidenced by barundar's pm's.

The only reason i did vote was because i thought voting ended today.
I dont trust LD i havent since Day 2. I trust Seraph more than LD but i dont like how he can say one thing and do another.


Day 1
1. We lynch annul.
2. Mafia are incapable of getting the lynch off of annul. This means they do not have players who are prominent or have a lot of influence.
LD is playing a really quiet game compared to other games he has played in.

Seraph is not being as quiet.


Seraph was one of the least active players in the game. LD was hardly active, but certainly moreso than seraph.

Kev's words are heavily inconsistent with his behavior. He has something to hide. No smack brand new newbie is going to start fishing for roles in pm's as townie.

##vote:kevconsim

[image loading]
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 05 2011 21:06 GMT
#1678
On March 06 2011 01:35 chaoser wrote:
@Ser Apsi

You're an idiot an a fool if you don't see the point in lynching LSB and how it takes precedence over Kev. He has acted scummy all game and is now irrevocably tied to LA. If LSB flips vigi than it's 100% confirmed that LA is vet since I very much doubt that a medic protected him/ If LSB flips red than LA is probably red as well along with anyone that DIDN'T want to vote LSB if he flips red.

I welcome any analysis on my posting, I've been actively scum hunting both in game and out. This whole game you've been piggybacking off foolishness' analysis, write your damn own. Plus that huge picture is annoying as fuck, use a smaller picture please.


I piggybacking off foolishness? Puh LEAZE. Along with deconduo I was the original impetus on annul, which, guess what, foolishness jumped on later. You are just scared, scum. You and your buddies jumped on jbright to save Seraph. We all know jbright is innocent after how close that lynch was. Now you and your buddies are jumping on LA and LSB. Gee, I wonder what they are.

The analysis on you is very simple. It all comes down to 1 post that could not have been made by a non-scum. You may try, but you cannot refute this. Squirm as much as you like scumbo.

On February 25 2011 01:45 chaoser wrote:
Man, finally all rested. I haven't fully read all of the thread but I'll get my thoughts out of the way first.

Firstly, Annul:

At present, annul is bad for town whether he's mafia or not...I mean there's not helping town and there's being detrimental to town. Making the thread into a heated mud slinging battle=not very good atmosphere to be catching red in. Promoting discussion is fine, promoting flaming is not. It just lets mafia blend in and take sides and have an easy way of "contributing to discussion". I know he can do better too, it's just a question of why isn't he i guess. I hate policy lynches but if it keeps going this way...

I'm willing to have him as a fall back lynch if no one else comes up.

That being said, icemac, what's up not analyzing? Whether it's "fluff" or not (I don't really think the topics people are discussing are fluff) there's a lot to talk about. You can talk about the situation in general (why did this convo pop up? if this is mafia talking why would they do this? etc. etc,) Or you can even explain why it's fluff. You kinda just say it's fluff and bounce.

Show nested quote +
How the heck am I red? Just because I'm smart enough to take a bipartisan approach to day 1 and not listen to over analysis and red-analysis doesn't mean I'm scum playing the middle of the road.


I actually use to play this way too cause I figured I needed more info before making a call, but making a call by itself is helpful for town. When we look back on past events, we can say, ah ha, this is where he stood in the situation, given what's happened so far, i think he's town/mafia/etc. It's like leaving a mark for all to see. As opposed to saying nothing about anything and then you don't leave ANY mark. How is town suppose to read you if you're just not leaving a mark? By thinking hmm why didn't he want to leave a mark...SCUMMM. See, not helpful at all.

Gryffindor:

I don't know if he lied or not. Maybe it was just a misunderstanding in PMs where he thought RoL/MK said something they didn't actually mean. Unless RoL says in thread he 100% lied, I'm going to read it as such. His list, I think, is just him giving into popular sentiment. I don't think it points to him as being red, more like he's seeing that it COULD be beneficial.

Show nested quote +
Also, how is it that you can't correlate my idea with his cell idea? Just because we have cells scumhunting, doesn't mean we can't PM a confirmed on d2 or d3. I do not see how it is black vs white, when there is in fact a lot of room for gray area.


This statement by him is pretty good, I agree that both can be combined if needed. Makes me think he's green cause he's willing to compromise instead of just toeing the line which is much easier to do as mafia than to reach across the aisle.


This was made when the annul lynch was gaining a little steam but not nearly decisive.

1. The guilty part is you trying to subtly deflect the annul lynch, while hiding that you are trying to do that. This isn't " i dont think annul is a good lynch," which anyone mafia or town could say. This is "i secretly dont want to lynch annul but i dont want you to know that so im going to but maybe just maybe we can have him as a fallback option aka if my team cant get another suspect up there." You try to dodge or downplay the real accusations against annul and insist "he can do better" while still making it look like you are part of the good guy bandwagon while being prepared to hop off as soon as another candidate got some votes. I don't need to read any other posts by you. No townie could possibly make this post.

2. Funny part is, you are doing the exact same thing you are putting doubt on icemac for: not having a strong and decisive opinion. Oops!

3 Here is the kicker. After all the bullshit you say about being decisive, after all the suspicion and doubt you put on all these dumb townies throughout the game, you don't say a damn word about cubedin (might as well air all the dirty laundry now) or kevconsim. Cubedin has made multiple 8 paragraph posts which boil down to "I dont know anything and dont have a real opinion about anyone," while nobody in the game has successfully forced a strong opinion out of kevconsim despite multiple thread and pm attempts. And GUESS WHO FELL ONTO THE JBRIGHT TRAP? Chaoser, cubedin, kevconsim. It's just a coincidence right!??!? RIGHT???? No fucking way scumbo.

+ Show Spoiler [cubedin and kev examples] +


Just some examples look at their post history to see how hilarious this is.
On February 28 2011 04:46 CubEdIn wrote:
Hi again peoples.

Here's a crappy cell-phone pic of yesterday!
+ Show Spoiler +

I GOT TO SEE SNOW!
[image loading]


Now, to the issues at hand.
Obviously, the most pressing issue is LSB vs Barundar.
LSB:
Mostly, the most trouble I have with this is that, if Barundar is right, we have to kill someone who really pushed a red on day 1. That's all.
We shouldn't really do this. Here is why:
- If LSB is town, and he's as good as people say he is, then he will be targeted by mafia, sooner or later.
- If LSB is red, he already outed a team-mate. If mafia is as ballsy as Barundar says, then they might do something equally strange in order to clear LSB. In which case, it spells good for town.

So I have no idea why so many people are going along with this.
At least give LSB one-two more days and see how the game goes. You can't possibly want one of the more experienced players to die, after pushing a red, based entirely on "he could have played this exactly the same if he was red". True, but that's not a convincing argument. Not for me anyway.

There are just two things that make me not dismiss this completely:
1. Harry Potter Mafia, when LSB seemed very, very pro-town in the thread, and he was scum. It can be said that he was Snape so he might have known he was ultimately town-aligned, but at the time he was in our scum team, yet he played very pro-town in the thread (or at least make it seem that way). This could be a more advanced version of that.
2. The "once he flips red" made it seem extremely confident. Which is a bit weird since it was day one. I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be that confident in day 1.

Barundar:
I don't know if Barundar is red or town, but I honestly don't think it is something that mafia would do.
Let's think for a second here, take what Barundar said:
The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff.
It's kinda hard to make up so much stuff just to try and sink LSB, and even if you do (say, Barundar is red and LSB is town), then it doesn't make any sense because Barundar would die next night for sure, so it would basically be two mafia down just to kill LSB.

So if he is red (and they want LSB dead), it's just a really bad move, because once LSB flips town, he's dead.
If he's town, it's an even worse move, because if LSB is town, then Barundar will most likely get lynched as well, and you will have wasted two lynches, and two of the better players and get absolutely nowhere.

So here's what I'm saying:
1. Think really well about who to vote for.
2. FoS on those who voted on LSB with saying "oh wow that was a good analysis" but didn't really bother to THINK about it and the other possiblities and the outcomes. I'm sure there's at least a few mafia among them who were oh-so-glad an experienced townie is being targeted.
Here are a few examples:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2011 00:23 chaoser wrote:
Epic post dude....I'mma put my vote on him cause there's no fucking way mafia would spend that much time crafting a post like that spanning 3 parts...

Vote: LSB

Yeah, that's a good freaking reason. Why would you bother thinking for yourself when someone posted a 3-part-post? No mafia writes that much!

Show nested quote +
On February 28 2011 00:51 OriginalName wrote:
I don't think mafia is beyond bussing d1 at all and I'm not prepared to let them succed for it HOWEVER we have to realize that if we get this wrong we are clearly on the wrong track and.

Mafia probably just got some lucky snipes
Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players
If anything I think the bus was instigated by the random vote on annul about mid way through d1
I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plaisable

Therefore

##Vote LSB

This seems scummiest to me:
"mafia probably just got some lucky snipes" - something of a 'reverse-gloating', being happy with the kills but trying to look very pro-town by saying almost nothing.
"Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players" - umm, yeah, we can tell that based on... ummm.... ?! slip?!
"I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plausible" - i like the risk of killing one of the best town players on the 50-50% he's red.
(I'm saying 50-50 because he said it's "plausible", not likely or anything else)

Of course, my whole theory tumbles if LSB is indeed red. But we are basing this solely on the idea that the mafia team pushed Annul to a lynch on day one, which is a massively ballsy thing to do.
I'm not saying LSB is town, but at least give it more time to develop, just don't claim to him or whatever if you don't trust him.



As for Jackal, I didn't think he was scum, and I wanted to post a few bits based on Mafia 36 that made me think it was unlikely that he is red, but then he gave up on Gryph and voted LSB based on the fact that it's either him or Barundar, again, being certain that one of them is red, which no player should do so early in the game.

That's about enough for now, as I still want to look over the posts and see if I can find someone worthy of my vote.
But unless something really scummy pops up, it's definitely not gonna be LSB or Barundar. Not this time band-wagon-man!


On March 03 2011 16:09 Barundar wrote:
First of all: congratulations to us.

Second of all: LOL at people screaming lynch GMarshal. GMarshal listed his PM’s with Seraph, which doesn’t looks forged, and which several people encouraged him to. GMarshal has been playing pro town all game and has been in contact with a number of people. He posted the PM’s in the thread, and has been clear in his reasoning.

Now I agree GMarshal hasn’t been playing the best, I even prodded him about his vote on JBright, and he would rather lynch LastArgument than seraph. But you are all putting way too much emphasis on people being linked together over actual behavioural analysis.

Third: LOL at people apologising to LSB, and LOL at LSB wanting medic protection. You think someone isn’t mafia because of 1 vote? While he does get some brownie points, LSB’s play is still mafia. Difference is he didn’t bus Seraph.

Let me break the lynch down for you: LSB threw a vote early on to Seraph. But he was casting doubt on the actual analysis while doing so, and he didn’t sound convinced. LSB doesn’t actually bother talking about Seraph or convince others to vote him. Instead he spams at best, and tries to divert at worst:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2011 10:23 LSB wrote:
On March 03 2011 10:16 Jackal58 wrote:
Town. Please stay active. Keep your eyes open.

All we need now is Pandain to run in and quickly switch the lynch to someone random.

Show nested quote +
On March 03 2011 10:25 LSB wrote:
Let me try.

EVERYONE LETS LYNCH BARUNDAR! QUICK QUICK QUICK

LSB didn’t believe in the actual lynch, and he certainly didn’t try to convince others. The only thing that gives LSB brownie points for this lynch, is to have had the votes on the right target, but it’s not like mafia can’t park a vote on their own afk team mate, who has strong cases against him. They just don’t want others to do the same. And LSB didn’t push for Seraph, he only put doubt on the case against him. Let’s not forget it was LSB who wanted GMarshal to publish Seraph’s PM’s.

Now who did push for Seraph?
Foolishness, obviously
Why
Myself + Show Spoiler +
I feel like the Jbright analysis is based more on "scumslips" than actual behavioral analysis. Quite contrary to the conclusions drawn by Ser Aspi, I don't see Jbright answering as a pressured scum. His silly reasons and distance from the game tells me bored townie rather than scum.
On March 03 2011 09:25 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
Maybe I should have waited a bit but I felt like a good time to post it as I don't particularly like the JBright wagon right now.

Agreed with this, weak reasoning in the votes stacking on Jbright.

Jackal58 + Show Spoiler +
On March 03 2011 09:33 Jackal58 wrote:
Well screw waiting. kevconsim and Last Argument were much to fast and much to happy to both vote for Jbright.

UNVOTE: kevconsim
##VOTE: Seraph


I urge you all to do the same.

Ser Aspi + Show Spoiler +
On March 03 2011 10:01 Ser Aspi wrote:
After seeing all these silent voters come out of the woodwork and vote jbright with no rationale Im feeling rather uneasy. My analysis of him was hardly foolproof, i just saw some shady points and wanted to push his buttons a little and I'm not convinced after what's happened.

Seraph on the other hand, let's just say he's pushing some agendas that help the mafia and the contrast of his spamminess pregame and total silence in game is too striking. Jbright might be just a useless townie who I hope fixes his act pronto, but Seraph has something to hide.

##vote: Seraph



All of these are most likely town, along with deconduo who started the day 1 bandwagon. I encourage to protect any of them, but favourite is Foolishness.

So, who should we lynch tomorrow? LSB?
If we have a vigilante out there, then kill LSB. He is still scum, and town has huge problems seeing through his play. He is exactly the kind of scum that you need to use vigi shot on, he is high profile and charismatic, making him difficult to lynch. We will most likely have to drag him to lylo if he doesn’t get vigi killed.

There is someone I think is a way better lynch target for tomorrow, Kevconsim.
Kevcon has been bandwagoning every day, with little reasoning. Upon his suspicious unvote yesterday, I decided to pressure him in PM’s to see if I could actually force an opinion out of him:

Show nested quote +
Original Message From Barundar:
Just unvoting when put under pressure doesn't make you look more town. What do you think of Seraph and LD


Show nested quote +
Original Message From kevconsim:
The only reason i did vote was because i thought voting ended today.
I dont trust LD i havent since Day 2. I trust Seraph more than LD but i dont like how he can say one thing and do another.


Show nested quote +
Original Message From Barundar:
But why do you trust them? What makes LD more suspecious to you? And what makes Seraph less?


Show nested quote +
Original Message From kevconsim:
Day 1
1. We lynch annul.
2. Mafia are incapable of getting the lynch off of annul. This means they do not have players who are prominent or have a lot of influence.
LD is playing a really quiet game compared to other games he has played in.

Seraph is not being as quiet.


Message from me he never replied to:
Show nested quote +
LD has posted alot more than Seraph. Try and have a look at the post count. Since LD has posted more than seraph, does that make you reevaluate your suspecions?


It’s quite impossible to force an opinion out of him, and it’s funny how he couldn’t be forced to vote Seraph over LD even when he based his vote on post count. Objectively post count should lead to voting seraph.



##vote:chaoser

Didn't you read? Professor Badass is a mod approved image, so shove it. But I'll be nice this one time.

Annul and his broomstick
Seraph

Chaoser
Kevconsim
Cubedin


+ Show Spoiler [you know it's here] +

[image loading]


I can predict the future. You are going to doublestack me tonight and I will live anyway. Then your team will lose.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 05 2011 21:08 GMT
#1679
On March 06 2011 05:55 GMarshal wrote:


1. LSB is town
2. LSB is vigi.
3. LSB shot bumatlarge not LA.
4. I am speaking for one of our medics.
5. LSB was hit on the last night cycle.
6. LSB is protecting LA for reasons that none of us in the circle truly understand.
7. LSB believes LA to be town. That is his belief alone. I am not defending LA.
8. Nobody in our circle is defending LA.
9. I cannot name any of the others in our circle without throwing medics and others to the wolves. I will not do that. Do not ask Gryff. I will not answer.
10. I have been in contact with people that were in a circle with Foolishness.
!!. Their scum list matches ours on 3 out of 4 names.

1.) right...
2.) ok...
3.) then why the hell did he lie about it? and why bum? EXPLAIN!!!
4.) ok...
5.) and why didn't he claim that this morning, it would have been nice to know?
6.) Then I want an explanation out of him, PM will suffice
7.) LSB believes alot of strange stuff
8.) ok...
9.) fine, I can accept that, I don't know how much of your circle is imaginary though.
10.) really now, that dosn't clear them at all though, being in a circle with someone means very little.
11.) and this list is?

this proves nothing to me you provide no evidence, and no backup after LSB playing the way he is i'm not going to just take your word for it jackal sorry.


LSB might be utterly insane but there's nothing that necessarily makes him mafia.

Look at the votes. Look who is pushing what, and who voted for what. Chaoser, kev, and cubedin cannot be anything but mafia. LSB might be scum but he also might just be crazy.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 05 2011 21:34 GMT
#1690
Nothing you say matters. We both know that what I said is true. Now you are getting scared and your demeanor has changed completely. That wasn't in the script now eh?

Your choice is to squirm and reveal the last mafia member or take this like a man and hope that guy can save the game. Your call brodooski.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 05 2011 22:34 GMT
#1701
On March 06 2011 06:39 chaoser wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2011 06:34 Ser Aspi wrote:
Nothing you say matters. We both know that what I said is true. Now you are getting scared and your demeanor has changed completely. That wasn't in the script now eh?

Your choice is to squirm and reveal the last mafia member or take this like a man and hope that guy can save the game. Your call brodooski.


lol, you're funny. scum calling town scum, priceless. My demeanor changed cause I'm excited. You know why? Cause this is mafia making their last big play. Obviously you all know how it's going to go down if you fail this one lynch.

Show nested quote +
Because LSB lied about who he hit for reasons known only to LSB. LSB believes LA is town for reasons known only to LSB. I know that LSB hit bumatlarge. I know a medic absorbed a hit on LSB. Why LSB is trying to get himself killed instead of LA we don't know. This is not my opinion alone. There are others involved that cannot speak or town is truly pooched. But you know most of this.


How can we confirm ANY OF THIS AS REAL TRUTH. You said LSB LIED?! LOLOL, you're saying a lie is going to lead to the truth. So let's add that as another reason for him being red. LAL


Ah yes, you panicked too much there scumbo. Lashing out at your accusers and calling them mafia is such a scum move. Especially in this case as my innocence is unquestionable at this point. But you've been spreading doubt all game, why would you stop now.



I'm not privy to any notable information but a simple vote and post glance tells us which suspect is more likely

1. Jackal LSB and I were crucial votes on Seraph, an exceedingly close lynch the mafia clearly intervened in.
2. Chaoser and company were core votes on jbright.
3. LSB has people backing up his stories. See point 1 as well.
4. LSB bandwagon is building up way too fast and unopposed. No other mafia bandwagon took up that unopposed and without any defense. On the other hand, the icemac bandwagon had no resistance at all and jumped high immediately.
5. Chaoser is panicking with the heat on him.

Not really hard to see which case is more likely. Despite all of LSB's cases flaws, he could just be a crazy townie. Chaoser...not so much.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 06 2011 07:24 GMT
#1926
lol sweet we got it. Just as predicted That 1 post made him scum.

btw gmarshal chaoser didnt die cause of bait and switch that was just marketing bs to convince people, no need to go insane.

ill have some more stuff out tomorrow gotta run for now.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 08 2011 02:16 GMT
#2027
Don't have time for anything but dont want to be modkilled and id rather kill someone else.

##vote Lunardestiny
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 08 2011 23:49 GMT
#2080
Does anyone else find it odd, almost absurd how little opposition there is to gryff?

There are currently 7 votes to 2, assuming i counted right. Gryff to ohn, one of those is gryff's. My vote can make it 7 to 3.

Look how much opposition there was to annul, seraph, and chaoser. In annul the vote wasnt close but the arguing was. For seraph the arguing wasnt that heavy but the voting was extraordinarily close. For chaoser the voting was close for awhile while the arguing was heavy. Now the voting and arguing are not close at all! In other words, gryff is not mafia. duh?

We are clearly banking on Barundar and LD, two of the most probable mafia, getting modkilled. Whilst it's not a bad idea, the mod's rules are extremely lenient and i doubt mafia would let themselves die. Be prepared for them both to throw in a last minute vote lol. Regardless, if they are not modkilled, they die tomorrow, LD first.

I would be happy killing ohn or kevconsim if we are praying they do get modkilled (just do it mod they've been gone 3 days!). Ohn has made like 10 posts or something, a third of them being 'i gotta catch up guys sry' Kevconsim was caught blue fishing in pm's while maintaing a 'look at me ima newbie' persona everywhere else.

Im just going to vote ohn for a variety of reasons but kevconsim is cool too. Still, either is better than gryff.

##unvote
##vote ohn

Also jackal is most definitely town. The reason chaoser died is heavily due to him. Basically I pm'ed him asking to work together after foolishness died, we shared suspects. I told him chaoser was the most likely, gave the evidence, but said any of chaoser/kev/cubedin (the jbright list) is fine. He chose chaoser and pushed him when, if he was mafia, he had a ton of wiggly room. I do not think a mafia would do that. He also was a key voter on seraph.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 09 2011 00:12 GMT
#2084
Well interesting while posting that 2 more people voted for ohn. This might get close.

Regardless ohn's post history doesn't look good for him at all.

Day 1:

On February 25 2011 10:26 ohN wrote:
Icemac is probably town. Bad d1 lynch target. Looks more like a bad/aggressive player than scum.

I'm still not convinced annul is a good lynch.
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 07:25 LSB wrote:
Storytime! Why Annul was an easy read in XXXV
1) He mad up stuff and pushed stuff that didn't exist
Check, this game he's pushing GMarshal, saying GMarshal is clear mafia, although there is literally nothing in his accusation
2) Besides responses, he posted nothing else
Look at Annul's posts. How many of his posts deal with things other than Gmarshal or defending himself? I can't find any.

Annul's not pushing GM that hard, he simply pointed out that GM had a bad idea and is calling him out on it. I don't think he ever said "GM is clear mafia." GM DID propose an arguably terrible plan; how come nobody else is calling him out for that? Annul's not looking any more scum than GM here in my eyes.

Barundar's accusation of Jackal is definitely not convincing but it's not utter crap either. It's an interesting point to look back to in the near future. Slight FoS on Jackal imo.

And finally, why is gryff not getting lynched?
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 15:20 gryffindor wrote:
the HOST actually told me it was a good idea.

Blatant lie here.

Show nested quote +
On February 23 2011 17:26 gryffindor wrote:
On February 23 2011 13:19 GMarshal wrote:
for arguments sake going to create analysis cells, use them for informational analysis
(even assuming I were scum there is no way) I could ensure each has a mafia member in it as there isn't enough mafia to go around (I am trying to put at least 1 TL vet in each) as the game progresses and people die we can have new cells form. (also you are free to create your own parallel cells)

1. Coagulation, LSB, gryffindor
2 GMarshal, seRapH, OriginalName
3 Mr. Wiggles, ICanFlyLow, kevconsim
4 Barundar, LastArgument , why
5 darmousseh, Ser Aspi, Kenpachi
6 Gofarman, chaoser, ohN
7 astroorion, CubEdIn, Jackal58
8 Beneather, annul, Conversion
9 icemac, Foolishness, LunarDestiny
10 deconduo, kitaman27, JBright

This is just a suggestion, but I think it is a good one, discuss

This would get us raped by the role reverser, and is really a scummy idea
unvote;
##Vote: GMarshal

Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 22:14 gryffindor wrote:
Cell 1, Cell leader: Coagulation+ Show Spoiler +
1. 5. Jackal58
2. 17. astroorion
3. 1. Coagulation

Cell 2, Cell leader: kitaman27+ Show Spoiler +
4. 19. Gofarman
5. 21. kitaman27
6. 12. icemac

Cell 3, Cell leader: IDC, they're all competant+ Show Spoiler +
7. 6. Kenpachi
8. 2. LSB
9. 26. LunarDestiny

Cell 4, Cell leader: Barundar+ Show Spoiler +
10. 30. LastArgument
11. 3. Barundar
12. 9. gryffindor

Cell 5, Cell leader: deconduo+ Show Spoiler +
13. 16. ohN
14. 28. deconduo
15. 8. annul

Cell 6, Cell leader: Foolishness+ Show Spoiler +
16. 18. Foolishness
17. 27. Ser Aspi
18. 22. kevconsim

Cell 7, Cell leader: Seraph/Mr. Wiggles+ Show Spoiler +
19. 11. Beneather
20. 15. seRapH
21. 24. Mr. Wiggles

Cell 8, Cell leader: OriginalName+ Show Spoiler +
22. 14. JBright
23. 23. ICanFlyLow
24. 13. OriginalName

Cell 9, Cell leader: Chaoser+ Show Spoiler +
25. 7. darmousseh
26. 25. chaoser
27. 20. Conversion MaxwellE

Cell 10, Cell leader: Cubedin+ Show Spoiler +
28. 4. CubEdIn
29. 29. why
30. 10. GMarshal


Now, the "leader" to me is someone who needs to go out of their way to actually collaborate with the other people in their group. If you don't want to use my list of cells, and want to use GMarshal's, whatever. I have a good list I just made right here ready for us to use. Basically, the leaders need to go out of their way to make this work. I am fully confident in these peoples abilities to report what is going on within your cell, and to hold people accountable.

Wait what.

##Vote: gryffindor



Defends icemac and annul. Pushes gryff and doubt on jackal.

Caught in a lie:

On February 26 2011 08:46 ohN wrote:
Woah annul was mafia? o.O
Somehow, I didn't expect that...

I'll put in more analysis once day2 hits, doesn't seem worth it to type up my thoughts at the moment when day2 results could just turn them all sideways.


On February 28 2011 09:35 ohN wrote:
Wow, a lot happened when I was gone.
I still don't understand why we're voting icemac. He doesn't look scummy at all. Like, yeah, he posted about 0 analysis and opinion but that holds true for a lot of other people too. 'Just looks like a scapegoat that mafia are trying to redirect lynches too.

Between LSB and Barundar I doubt either of them are mafia. If one of them is, it's LSB. Can't really say why I think that and there's so many pages that I just read but yeah, that's my take on the situation.

So, who to vote for..
I still think gryff is suspicious, although that might just be because of his weird playstyle. I'd rather have gryff lynched than icemac to be honest. Reading through, Foolishness's post like 2-3 above this has a good point and since I don't think LSB/Barundar/icemac are mafia, there goes my vote.

##Vote: LunarDestiny


That's some analysis....NOT. Doesn't deliver what he promised at all and subsequently slacks on it. His only analysis was that day 1 post so far as i can find.

votes himself day 3 just in time and is gone FIVE DAYS. WTF MODKILL?

Day 4. Votes LSB.

Day 5. Lurker votes gryff.

To sum up. Doesn't stick with what he promised. Dodges half the game. Has never voted a confirmed mafia. Not a confirmed mafia or anything, but definitely a better kill than gryff.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 09 2011 09:34 GMT
#2212
Interesting ohn was town, not a huge surprise but not a pleasant one either...barundar getting modkilled is a big help tho.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 09 2011 09:43 GMT
#2214
No. Jackal was the one who went for chaoser. Being wrong about gryff does not make him mafia. He has been a key asset to the town.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 10 2011 02:32 GMT
#2237
DA PLAN

Don't dispute. Don't argue. Don't whine. Just follow it.

Innocent List:

Ser Aspi (duh)
Jackal
Coag
LSB


Lunardestiny Guaranteed scum

Cubedin - a number of posts make him scum
kevconsim - acts like a noob but fished for a blue. Is that worthy of being scum? Not sure anymore
One or both are guaranteed scum. If one of lunar or cubedin are gf then kev is highly likely. But kev is not the gf lol so if both the first two are red but not gf then kev is clean.

Variables:
gmarshal - is either godlike scum or manipulated townie. im voting for latter, but former is possible as he's been on the wrong lynch EVERY SINGLE TIME.
why - is innocent if cubedin is scum. dont know otherwise.
deconduo- no idea, havent read his posts





Lunardestiny is getting lynched tomorrow, absolutely no question. Three times he has posted once in a day voting himself, twice right before the buzzer. He is actively lurking and not helping the town whatsoever. He cannot not be mafia. There is still foolishness's damning case agaisnt him too.

Now once he's dead, we have to deal with the jbright train, which is.

GMarshal ?
chaoser
CubEdIn ?
kevconsim ?
LastArgument
JBright



cubedin is a much better lynch than kev, though kev is possible. The thing with kev is it seems hes being TOO obvious as mafia. Blind bandwagon votes without reasons etc. cubedin on the other hand is trying to hide his scumminess.

Last mafia I have no clue on tbh. I havent really looked at any of them closely, though jackal and i are inclined to say gmarshal is just a manipulated green.

votes:

+ Show Spoiler [CLICK THIS Votes of everyone] +


LunarDestiny:

icemac
lunardestiny
seraph
lunardestiny
lunardestiny

LOL

Cubedin

annul (once it was clearly over)
icemac
jbright
Chaoser

kevconsim

annul (last vote when it was clearly over)
icemac
jbright
lsb -> chaoser bandwagon


gmarshal

bum
jbright
jbright
ohn

why

icemac
LD
seraph
lsb -> chaoser bandwagon
wants to kill cubedin multiple times but nobody supports his vote


Deconduo:

annul
LSB
LSB
LSB -> chaoser bandwagon

lol?

Day 5 lynch is irrelevant as no mafia were up for lynch.




Plan is:

1 Lynch LD Tomorrow
2. Lynch Cubedin Day after Tomorrow

If both are red and one is gf, lynch kevconsim
If both are red but neither is gf, lynch one of gmarshal/deconduo
Both are red

Analysis on LD and Cubedin coming
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 10 2011 02:33 GMT
#2238
Why LD?

Three reasons:

1 Foolishness's analysis

+ Show Spoiler [ANALYSIS READ] +
On February 28 2011 09:10 Foolishness wrote:
The LSB - Barundar debate is living proof that there are some people in a mafia game who you try to ignore as much as possible. I am going to make a case right here that we choose to ignore these two buffoons and move on to more important matters.

At one point or another I caught both these players saying "lynch the other, then lynch me if they turn up green". DO NOT BE DISTRACTED BY ARGUMENTS SUCH AS THESE! Let's say we take their advice, and lynch one today. They flip green (which is most likely). What's going to happen is we spend the entire next day debating to lynch the other and some other random inactive (probably icemac, the poor guy). Most likely, the other of LSB/Barundar will get lynched.

End result of all this is probably we lynched two greens AND we wasted two days and nights analyzing at most 3 people. That time could have been spent taking a more thorough analysis of other players in the game. Not to mention by the time the next day roles around there will be about 4-5 more townies dead from night kills.

"But Foolishness, what if (insert LSB or Barundar) is actually mafia! Then we killed a mafia!" Cool, that's really wonderful, but we still wasted two days not analyzing anyone else. Not to mention the ONLY people that want to kill LSB or Barundar are: LSB and Barundar. A quick scan tells me anyone else voting for one or the other is doing it out of policy "Wow (insert LSB or Barundar), I never looked at it that way before! It's so obvious that (insert whoever you didn't insert above) is mafia!" Yeah great job thinking for yourself there; policy lynches are totally the way to play mafia.

Let's take a step back and analyze the situation as a whole. LSB and Barundar call each other, both are confident enough to say "if he flips green lynch me next". Nothing much to say here. What's interesting is we have people on both sides of the argument saying "LSB/Barundar is totally acting in their norm...remember this other game where they did exactly that as a town?" That strikes me as very interesting because it means someone actually did their homework and more obviously, they are probably both town.

The voting thread is even more proof that nobody really wants to kill them besides themselves, as we got people voting for gryffindor and icemac. This also seems more out of policy than actual analysis, as people are basically summing up their vote as "well, I'm not comfortable with killing LSB or Barundar, so I'll just vote this other guy who has been under suspicion all game". Also voting out of policy without providing credible evidence.

(Yes people, policy lynches are bad)

If LSB and Barundar are not acting out of their norm then who is? LunarDestiny and Seraph. I can easily show it just by looking at their number of posts.

LunarDestiny:
Number of posts before game starts: 12
Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 18

Seraph:
Number of posts before game starts: 10
Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 13

For this, I will focus on LunarDestiny, we can deal with Seraph later.

##Vote LunarDestiny

In Mafia XXXV LunarDestiny had 29 posts from start of the game until the end of day two. That's a 50% increase from this game. Sure numbers are kinda meaningless, but it's interesting how much posting he was doing pre game then as soon as the game starts he shuts up. There's definitely something going on with him.

Additional information, as it was brought up not too long ago, at one point yesterday the vote was Annul 6, icemac 5. It was here that I decided I wanted to vote for annul to pressure him more, because I thought he would easily crack and show himself as mafia (turns out he did right before day was over). It's usually my policy to lynch inactives first day, so I felt a bit awkward about voting for him because I hate voting active players the first day or two.

I sent a PM to LunarDestiny, explaining this and asking if he would vote annul. His response (I don't want to take up space posting the actual PMs, just PM me if you don't believe me):

"I spent more of my posts talking about how I hate bandwagon...

However, I can help call Annul out by posting how he is playing like he was in XXXV where his postings are similar since they are not logical."

That's a legitimate response upon first inspection. But here's a collection of posts LunarDestiny made that regards bandwagoning:
Show nested quote +
On February 23 2011 15:38 LunarDestiny wrote:
Voting inactives are bad, but there are people who will only reply if their names pop up. I understand the game just started, but I think pressure voting to get someone start talking is good.

What's bad is that if the person don't respond and bandwagon on that person happens.

Show nested quote +
On February 23 2011 16:52 LunarDestiny wrote:
@gryffindor
Ser Aspi attempted to make a well formulated case after putting an FoS out on me. I'm not mafia, so if he was mafia, I would expect him to have done that differently. It could be WIFOM off of an associative tell, but I'm not sure if he's good enough to do that. Given that I doubt he wasn't genuine, and I like that he is attempting to create a bandwagon, I'm comfortable with him in my town category. I didn't want to just put "town", as it can be misleading. People will be moving up and down on my list as their play improves/degrades.


You are saying that Ser Aspi read you as mafia and tried to convince town and not sucessful in doing do. While I agree that mafia won't recklessly risk themselves at leading lynches, I believe that they want to form a quick bandwagon on town.

But you also said Ser Aspi tried to create a bandwagon which is what mafia wants to do. That should be a scum tell instead of a defense why he is town.

If I missed one let me know, but it's clear there's very little indication of "I hate bandwagons!" Of course there's a little indication of this as he says it's a mafia move to ignite a bandwagon, but that's it. Of course what I'm getting at is that LunarDestiny wanted to dodge voting annul. If he didn't want to help me why not just say "i don't believe annul is mafia, let's kill icemac"? Maybe he's intimidated by me, or maybe he's mafia. (He did vote for icemac yesterday, which is kinda a bandwagon in itself, just not as big as the annul one).

He tells me in the PM he will help me by calling him out in the thread. Let's look at some of his posts which are supposed to help me:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 14:05 LunarDestiny wrote:
On February 24 2011 13:03 annul wrote:
##unvote

##vote gmarshal

better than chaoser atm

I want to ask you for the reasons why you switched your vote. And why do you think Gmarshall is a better lynch than Chaoser.

This was his post after he sent me the PM. As we can see, he did try to pressure annul, but not in the way he said he would. Take a look at some of his later posts:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 06:34 LunarDestiny wrote:
I read about the last three pages and found not very strong reasons that Annul is scum.

I don't see much scum tell in his vote switch from Chaoser to Gmarshall. Annul did justify his vote on Gmarshall on why his plan is bad.

Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions."

I played with Annul many times before and it seems that he is always aggressive on day1.
XXXV: Accused LSB mafia because he spams and don't contribute much.
Merc Mafia: Claimed medic to me (day vig) and planned to have 100% town victory.
Survivor Mafia (ongoing): After the quick 3 people alliance, he rallied and formed the counter 5 people alliance to take control of the game.

This game compared to other games I played with Annul, I consider that he is playing less aggressive.

Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 07:58 LunarDestiny wrote:
LSB: Storytime! Why Annul was an easy read in XXXV
1) He mad up stuff and pushed stuff that didn't exist
Check, this game he's pushing GMarshal, saying GMarshal is clear mafia, although there is literally nothing in his accusation
2) Besides responses, he posted nothing else
Look at Annul's posts. How many of his posts deal with things other than Gmarshal or defending himself? I can't find any.


Looked over Annul's posts:
1) He posts are generally short and don't have much content to them. I do find Annul saying Gmarshall is mafia based only on his circle thing is not convincing.

2) This is the part I disagree. Annul did what most people will do in this situation. He attacked someone whom he believe is mafia and defended himself when he was in huge danger of being lynched. If he didn't go after someone, ok... since not everyone got a mafia read on day1. And his defense on himself is normal behavior.

To determine if he is really mafia, you have to look at the time when he felt pressured and tried to redirect the lynch to another person (Gmarshall in this case) and if there are any support from others. People did pointed out Gmarshall's circle thing is a horrible idea but no one voted for him after Annul's switch.

Easily seen how he contradicts what he told me in PM. He wanted to "help" me so that I wouldn't become suspicious of him, yet he spends time half ass defending annul. I say half ass because of his reluctance to take an affirmative stance on the situation. He obviously voted for icemac, and made posts such as these:
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 08:09 LunarDestiny wrote:
ANNUL, can you response to some critical posts toward you and don't use one liner responses because one liner responses are hard to read alignment.

Show nested quote +
On February 25 2011 10:25 LunarDestiny wrote:
Annul, if you don't do anything people will not switch vote. This play style of yours is getting you lynched. While I still believe your aggressiveness is lower compared to other games, what makes you an easy lynch is that you don't reply with logical responses. I hope that is not what mafia is going for.

Also, town players roleclaim regardless when they are getting lynched. That "you'll know soon after" is not general town play.

Can you at least tell us what you observed?

Well, time to vote...
Icemac, you took a huge dive. Care to explained your voting or what you see on the thread?

These posts indicate him saying "hey annul you're going to die unless you do something" and above his posts are saying "guys, we don't have convincing evidence to kill annul, he's not acting that different from his past games". The most important thing to take away from this situation is his lack to take an affirmative stance. On one hand you read this and think, "nah he couldn't be mafia with annul look at him try to tell annul to change his attitude so he doesn't die", and on the other hand you read his above posts and say "he could be mafia with annul because he tried to defend him". LunarDestiny does not want to take sides so he cannot be held accountable later.


SUMMARY:
LunarDestiny gave me an inaccurate PM, and then went back on his word on pressuring annul. He did not take an affirmative stance on what he thought about annul and voted for icemac.




2 Foolishness's warning to me (in pm)

If LD is mafia I'm fairly confident he's going to go mia if we lay off him the next day or two.


AND LOOK WHAT HAPPENED? We laid off LD because Foolishness wanted to see how LD would react, and LD fell right into Foolishness's trap. Why? Cause he be scum yo.

3 LD's activity:

LunarDestiny:
Number of posts before game starts: 12
Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 18

Seraph:
Number of posts before game starts: 10
Number of posts after game starts (up until now): 13

Guess what? Seraph was mafia. Well LD is too. What's more damning is LD's activity post accusation. What is it you ask?

Why, 0. No activity whatsoever. He has made 3 posts to make 3 votes. DIE!!!

4 His most important contribution is disputing semantics in day 1, putting doubt on gryff, and diverting attention off the annul lynch. Gee I wonder why.

5 Actually I just caught this now. He committed the same blunder as chaoser in defending annul. Trying to subtly brush it aside without appearing too pro-annul. In other words, scum trying to hide their true intentions.

+ Show Spoiler [Scum posts] +


On February 25 2011 06:34 LunarDestiny wrote:
I read about the last three pages and found not very strong reasons that Annul is scum.

I don't see much scum tell in his vote switch from Chaoser to Gmarshall. Annul did justify his vote on Gmarshall on why his plan is bad.

Another thing people keep mentioning is the aggressiveness how Annul is playing which looks like how he played in XXXV where he was scum. The difference is there he was accusing LSB being scum with flawed reasons. This game, he actually justified his vote and did provide reasons unlike the old "LSB postings are spams and have few contributions."

I played with Annul many times before and it seems that he is always aggressive on day1.
XXXV: Accused LSB mafia because he spams and don't contribute much.
Merc Mafia: Claimed medic to me (day vig) and planned to have 100% town victory.
Survivor Mafia (ongoing): After the quick 3 people alliance, he rallied and formed the counter 5 people alliance to take control of the game.

This game compared to other games I played with Annul, I consider that he is playing less aggressive.


On February 25 2011 10:25 LunarDestiny wrote:
Annul, if you don't do anything people will not switch vote. This play style of yours is getting you lynched. While I still believe your aggressiveness is lower compared to other games, what makes you an easy lynch is that you don't reply with logical responses. I hope that is not what mafia is going for.

Also, town players roleclaim regardless when they are getting lynched. That "you'll know soon after" is not general town play.

Can you at least tell us what you observed?

Well, time to vote...
Icemac, you took a huge dive. Care to explained your voting or what you see on the thread?


On February 25 2011 07:58 LunarDestiny wrote:
Show nested quote +
LSB: Storytime! Why Annul was an easy read in XXXV
1) He mad up stuff and pushed stuff that didn't exist
Check, this game he's pushing GMarshal, saying GMarshal is clear mafia, although there is literally nothing in his accusation
2) Besides responses, he posted nothing else
Look at Annul's posts. How many of his posts deal with things other than Gmarshal or defending himself? I can't find any.


Looked over Annul's posts:
1) He posts are generally short and don't have much content to them. I do find Annul saying Gmarshall is mafia based only on his circle thing is not convincing.

2) This is the part I disagree. Annul did what most people will do in this situation. He attacked someone whom he believe is mafia and defended himself when he was in huge danger of being lynched. If he didn't go after someone, ok... since not everyone got a mafia read on day1. And his defense on himself is normal behavior.

To determine if he is really mafia, you have to look at the time when he felt pressured and tried to redirect the lynch to another person (Gmarshall in this case) and if there are any support from others. People did pointed out Gmarshall's circle thing is a horrible idea but no one voted for him after Annul's switch.



To sum up, LD is hiding something, just like Seraph. It doesn't get simpler than this folks. Chaoser required some stellar analysis because he played quite well and didn't make many blunders. This is simply obvious. Rememeber LD was to be our lynch for today except he was looking to be modkilled and we were hoping he would. He didn't, because he's a lurking mafia who has no inclination to help the town at all and is laughing in our faces. Foolishness was right about Seraph, he was right about LD. He even laid a trap to make sure, and LD darn well fell for it.
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 10 2011 02:34 GMT
#2239
Why Cubedin?

I've thought cubedin was mafia ever since the jbright lynch, however I haven't pushed him because chaoser was first priority as I thought the was godfather and yesterday LSB backed cubedin and I can't outshout LSB so I went for the easy inactive lynch as gryff was clearly innocent. Well screw that, Cubedin is dying after LD dies. It's too late to hold back anything. The town cannot afford mislynches anymore.

Rereading the posts again makes me even more certain than I was at the end of day 3. Just like I said with chaoser, Cubedin MUST BE MAFIA.

Why? Because he is hiding something. This is not exemplified as much by a specific post as by his entire posting history. He is scared, no, terrified, and his most important goal is not to stand out.
+ Show Spoiler [Posts READ] +

*note the posts are not in chronological order sorry! It doesn't really matter though anyways, as they are just selections to show his pattern in posting*

On March 02 2011 03:04 CubEdIn wrote:
I'm pretty ok with lynching LD, because of the way he played Mafia XXXVI.
I watched him from a scum perspective, and he was a bit of a thorn in our pawn.

This game, however, I barely noticed him.
Still, I expected that if he were scum, he would have become more active once the FoS was pointing at him, but he hasn't, so I'm not completely dismissing the possibility that he's simply being less active for this one.

But yeah I do agree with one thing wholeheartedly: get the lurkers to talk.
Someone in PM told me that people might be lurking due to the fact that they're medics or such and don't want to be sticking out, but mafia already knows who's mafia, so the green/blue lurkers WILL stick out like a sore thumb to them, especially if they don't start talking and town doesn't cast any blame on them. See Mafia XXXVI's Mr.Wiggles and BrownBear for example. At the end of the game I had to guess who medic was, and I picked one of these two. BB was medic and Wiggles was Mason. And it was obvious because town was protecting them. So, yeah, bottom line is, get everyone to talk.

Let's start with... ohN. Are you even part of this game?


On February 24 2011 19:14 CubEdIn wrote:
Ok ok.

I had a bit of time to go through the thread, and most likely I will be a bit more free at work today so hopefully I'll contribute more.
But this is what I got so far:

1. Icemac vs Gmarshall.
I don't think either of them is scum, and here is why:
Gmarshall did play a bit different in Mafia 36, but the reason for that was, he was picked Bodyguard on day one. Which means that his place was safe, at least for the first few days. Nobdy was going to lynch him, even if several people would FoS him, which gives one a nice, safe place in the game.
In this game, however, he does not have that advantage, so I think it's somewhat normal that he's a bit more touchy, a bit more aggressive, but at least he's trying to provide decent information and come up with a somewhat-well-though-out-plan.
Basically, the only problem with his plan is that a bunch of the cells could be mafia-infested, but that can also work to town's advantage if the greens in the circle can figure out that the red is trying to play them. As far as nobody claims early, it should be ok, IMO.
Besides, like LSB said, you can't really STOP any kind of town circle as long as PMs are allowed, so there's no reason I can think of to try to stop town this. At best, this is a more "imposed" cell that any player can embrace or ignore. I don't think it can be considered scummish.

Icemac, on the other hand, is a smurf, so I can't know what he's usually like, but I'm guessing that he played with us before, and that's why he's being overly aggressive in some instances. I don't think that makes him scum though, especially if he played in Mafia 36 and he's got an idea about what GM "should play like", and isn't.
If he didn't play with us before, he might just be a tad on the aggressive side by nature. I don't see why this is considered a bad thing, and I don't see why it's a reason to vote for him. To me, most of the things he said come out as being townish.
Either way, it's not really a reason go wagon him no matter how you look at it, and I'm quite suspicious of the players that ganged him so fast.

2. LSB vs. Annul
These are both quite experienced players, so I don't think you could get a "read" out of either of them. But it is reminiscent of the way LSB started out Harry Potter Mafia (when we were mafia together), and he was attacking RoL all over. Which lead to both of them being lynched and clearing up DrH of accusation for quite some time.
Now I'm not saying LSB is doing this, I'm saying that EITHER of them could be doing this. Or they can both be town or both mafias.
I know this is inconclusive, but my "bottom line" would be... don't go for either of them until there's further proof. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go read through the first two days of HP mafia.

3. Ser Aspi
This is the most suspicious player to me so far, mostly based on one post:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2011 12:48 Ser Aspi wrote:
On February 24 2011 12:16 annul wrote:
oh hey another smurf

why the fuck does everyone smurf? why are you all afraid of your skill?


cute way to sidetrack the debate off your scummy play. "HE POSTED LOGIC SMURFFFFF AHHHHH IGNORE ME" Sorry if I forgot about tl mafia and been busy playing at epicmafia and mafiascum for the past year.

Naturally you don't actually respond to what I said. Even more interesting, a smurf would be someone more knowledgeable than a new player. For you to think that I am a smurf immediately means that you felt what I said had merit. Thus that means you know better, which means you are scum bullshiting.

vote## Annul

Im gonna knock you off your broomstick boy


This is weird, really weird. Mostly because it came RIGHT after LSB made some decent points against Annul. If he wanted to vote for Annul he'd have had a lot of damn good reasons by just "believing" LSB's analysis. But instead he goes and basically OMGUS-votes Annul. Why on earth would you do something like that?
Now, I'm not saying he's not right about the smurf/experienced thing on Annul, but he basically voted for him because Annul pointed him out for being a smurf, and he openly admitted that.
That's most fishy to me, out of everything I read so far.

The second suspect would be Jackal, but I doubt it's a good idea to lynch him over just two posts (like Ser Aspi too, actually). I don't find it odd that he's not being overly aggressive as usual, because it's very early in the game, but I do find it odd that he made the remark about the PM. That does seem a bit off-character.

That being said, I don't have any idea of who to vote for actually, at least not yet. But I do know one thing: If Annul and/or LSB are not scum, they'll probably be taken out pretty early in the game, so I don't think it's smart for town to lynch either of them (especially not LSB, since he seems to be a target for Mafia early on when he's red, and if he IS mafia, then he has a pretty pro-town way of playing it, so I think it's safe either way).



On February 25 2011 06:33 CubEdIn wrote:
I find it very scummy that someone gets to tell me that I have to change my vote to one of the two (Granted, I didn't vote yet, but let's assume I had my vote on Ser Aspi).

Who are you (Gryff) to tell me I have to change my vote? It's a game. It's definitely not LYLO. I can vote whoeverthehell I want. You disagree? Then try to get my lynch afterwards, but don't try and influence the vote while it's going on without any serious reason.

You think it's scummy that some people can have their own opinion that's not similar to what everyone else says? How so? Is it not scummier to band wagon someone?


That being said, I am going to bandwagon! But not because I don't have the balls to stick to my own choice, but because I found annul's downward spiral to be quite scummy. He seemed OK at first but then started to respond aggressively to the posts, which is exactly what I do when I'm scum.
I still think that it's a bad idea overall to lynch someone with decent experience on day 1. I would much rather have annul as a day 2 lynch or so, but I already explained why I really doubt Icemac is town, and his posts made me think so even more.
Also, RoL's intervention made me think that gryff (my 2nd in line choice, after S.A.) is town, because if he'd be mafia, the mod-intervention would be imba. And I know from when I was mafia in 36 that the mods posting in the thread is 90% to stop the town from taking the fast train to nowhere.

That being said, I sure hope LSB is not wrong about this
##Vote Annul


On February 28 2011 04:46 CubEdIn wrote:
Hi again peoples.

Here's a crappy cell-phone pic of yesterday!
+ Show Spoiler +

I GOT TO SEE SNOW!
[image loading]


Now, to the issues at hand.
Obviously, the most pressing issue is LSB vs Barundar.
LSB:
Mostly, the most trouble I have with this is that, if Barundar is right, we have to kill someone who really pushed a red on day 1. That's all.
We shouldn't really do this. Here is why:
- If LSB is town, and he's as good as people say he is, then he will be targeted by mafia, sooner or later.
- If LSB is red, he already outed a team-mate. If mafia is as ballsy as Barundar says, then they might do something equally strange in order to clear LSB. In which case, it spells good for town.

So I have no idea why so many people are going along with this.
At least give LSB one-two more days and see how the game goes. You can't possibly want one of the more experienced players to die, after pushing a red, based entirely on "he could have played this exactly the same if he was red". True, but that's not a convincing argument. Not for me anyway.

There are just two things that make me not dismiss this completely:
1. Harry Potter Mafia, when LSB seemed very, very pro-town in the thread, and he was scum. It can be said that he was Snape so he might have known he was ultimately town-aligned, but at the time he was in our scum team, yet he played very pro-town in the thread (or at least make it seem that way). This could be a more advanced version of that.
2. The "once he flips red" made it seem extremely confident. Which is a bit weird since it was day one. I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be that confident in day 1.

Barundar:
I don't know if Barundar is red or town, but I honestly don't think it is something that mafia would do.
Let's think for a second here, take what Barundar said:
The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff.
It's kinda hard to make up so much stuff just to try and sink LSB, and even if you do (say, Barundar is red and LSB is town), then it doesn't make any sense because Barundar would die next night for sure, so it would basically be two mafia down just to kill LSB.

So if he is red (and they want LSB dead), it's just a really bad move, because once LSB flips town, he's dead.
If he's town, it's an even worse move, because if LSB is town, then Barundar will most likely get lynched as well, and you will have wasted two lynches, and two of the better players and get absolutely nowhere.

So here's what I'm saying:
1. Think really well about who to vote for.
2. FoS on those who voted on LSB with saying "oh wow that was a good analysis" but didn't really bother to THINK about it and the other possiblities and the outcomes. I'm sure there's at least a few mafia among them who were oh-so-glad an experienced townie is being targeted.
Here are a few examples:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2011 00:23 chaoser wrote:
Epic post dude....I'mma put my vote on him cause there's no fucking way mafia would spend that much time crafting a post like that spanning 3 parts...

Vote: LSB

Yeah, that's a good freaking reason. Why would you bother thinking for yourself when someone posted a 3-part-post? No mafia writes that much!

Show nested quote +
On February 28 2011 00:51 OriginalName wrote:
I don't think mafia is beyond bussing d1 at all and I'm not prepared to let them succed for it HOWEVER we have to realize that if we get this wrong we are clearly on the wrong track and.

Mafia probably just got some lucky snipes
Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players
If anything I think the bus was instigated by the random vote on annul about mid way through d1
I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plaisable

Therefore

##Vote LSB

This seems scummiest to me:
"mafia probably just got some lucky snipes" - something of a 'reverse-gloating', being happy with the kills but trying to look very pro-town by saying almost nothing.
"Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players" - umm, yeah, we can tell that based on... ummm.... ?! slip?!
"I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plausible" - i like the risk of killing one of the best town players on the 50-50% he's red.
(I'm saying 50-50 because he said it's "plausible", not likely or anything else)

Of course, my whole theory tumbles if LSB is indeed red. But we are basing this solely on the idea that the mafia team pushed Annul to a lynch on day one, which is a massively ballsy thing to do.
I'm not saying LSB is town, but at least give it more time to develop, just don't claim to him or whatever if you don't trust him.



As for Jackal, I didn't think he was scum, and I wanted to post a few bits based on Mafia 36 that made me think it was unlikely that he is red, but then he gave up on Gryph and voted LSB based on the fact that it's either him or Barundar, again, being certain that one of them is red, which no player should do so early in the game.

That's about enough for now, as I still want to look over the posts and see if I can find someone worthy of my vote.
But unless something really scummy pops up, it's definitely not gonna be LSB or Barundar. Not this time band-wagon-man!


On February 28 2011 08:02 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2011 06:02 Jackal58 wrote:
First off. kevconsim - I'm flattered that you think highly enough of me to put me in your sig. Thank you. You must work on Madison Ave.




+ Show Spoiler +
On February 28 2011 04:46 CubEdIn wrote:
Hi again peoples.

Here's a crappy cell-phone pic of yesterday!
+ Show Spoiler +

I GOT TO SEE SNOW!
[image loading]


Now, to the issues at hand.
Obviously, the most pressing issue is LSB vs Barundar.
LSB:
Mostly, the most trouble I have with this is that, if Barundar is right, we have to kill someone who really pushed a red on day 1. That's all.
We shouldn't really do this. Here is why:
- If LSB is town, and he's as good as people say he is, then he will be targeted by mafia, sooner or later.
- If LSB is red, he already outed a team-mate. If mafia is as ballsy as Barundar says, then they might do something equally strange in order to clear LSB. In which case, it spells good for town.

So I have no idea why so many people are going along with this.
At least give LSB one-two more days and see how the game goes. You can't possibly want one of the more experienced players to die, after pushing a red, based entirely on "he could have played this exactly the same if he was red". True, but that's not a convincing argument. Not for me anyway.

There are just two things that make me not dismiss this completely:
1. Harry Potter Mafia, when LSB seemed very, very pro-town in the thread, and he was scum. It can be said that he was Snape so he might have known he was ultimately town-aligned, but at the time he was in our scum team, yet he played very pro-town in the thread (or at least make it seem that way). This could be a more advanced version of that.
2. The "once he flips red" made it seem extremely confident. Which is a bit weird since it was day one. I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be that confident in day 1.

Barundar:
I don't know if Barundar is red or town, but I honestly don't think it is something that mafia would do.
Let's think for a second here, take what Barundar said:
The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff.
It's kinda hard to make up so much stuff just to try and sink LSB, and even if you do (say, Barundar is red and LSB is town), then it doesn't make any sense because Barundar would die next night for sure, so it would basically be two mafia down just to kill LSB.

So if he is red (and they want LSB dead), it's just a really bad move, because once LSB flips town, he's dead.
If he's town, it's an even worse move, because if LSB is town, then Barundar will most likely get lynched as well, and you will have wasted two lynches, and two of the better players and get absolutely nowhere.

So here's what I'm saying:
1. Think really well about who to vote for.
2. FoS on those who voted on LSB with saying "oh wow that was a good analysis" but didn't really bother to THINK about it and the other possiblities and the outcomes. I'm sure there's at least a few mafia among them who were oh-so-glad an experienced townie is being targeted.
Here are a few examples:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2011 00:23 chaoser wrote:
Epic post dude....I'mma put my vote on him cause there's no fucking way mafia would spend that much time crafting a post like that spanning 3 parts...

Vote: LSB

Yeah, that's a good freaking reason. Why would you bother thinking for yourself when someone posted a 3-part-post? No mafia writes that much!

Show nested quote +
On February 28 2011 00:51 OriginalName wrote:
I don't think mafia is beyond bussing d1 at all and I'm not prepared to let them succed for it HOWEVER we have to realize that if we get this wrong we are clearly on the wrong track and.

Mafia probably just got some lucky snipes
Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players
If anything I think the bus was instigated by the random vote on annul about mid way through d1
I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plaisable

Therefore

##Vote LSB

This seems scummiest to me:
"mafia probably just got some lucky snipes" - something of a 'reverse-gloating', being happy with the kills but trying to look very pro-town by saying almost nothing.
"Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players" - umm, yeah, we can tell that based on... ummm.... ?! slip?!
"I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plausible" - i like the risk of killing one of the best town players on the 50-50% he's red.
(I'm saying 50-50 because he said it's "plausible", not likely or anything else)

Of course, my whole theory tumbles if LSB is indeed red. But we are basing this solely on the idea that the mafia team pushed Annul to a lynch on day one, which is a massively ballsy thing to do.
I'm not saying LSB is town, but at least give it more time to develop, just don't claim to him or whatever if you don't trust him.



As for Jackal, I didn't think he was scum, and I wanted to post a few bits based on Mafia 36 that made me think it was unlikely that he is red, but then he gave up on Gryph and voted LSB based on the fact that it's either him or Barundar, again, being certain that one of them is red, which no player should do so early in the game.

That's about enough for now, as I still want to look over the posts and see if I can find someone worthy of my vote.
But unless something really scummy pops up, it's definitely not gonna be LSB or Barundar. Not this time band-wagon-man!



Here's my problem Cubed. Everybody expects me to tunnel. They call me aggressive. I'm damned if I do. I'm damned if I don't I understand what you wanted to link in XXXVI. My persistent vote on you. The difference between then and now is then I was positive you were on the red team. Now I have no one individual I can point at and say "you are scum" Not yet anyways. Barundar believes me to be scum due to my not tunneling. If you read the games I've been in til late game that "tunneling" hasn't started until about day 3 or so. We are still in day two. We have a pissing contest between two people that fervently believe the other is scum. I am vacillating between believing that either they both are or neither are. I honestly don't know yet. What I do know is I am surly incapable of pushing for a lynch on gryffindor. deconduo is the only other person here that I can see that would keep their vote on him til the end of day. I do know that I am going to change my vote back. I have seen enough from both of them to believe it to be at best a 50/50 shot of hanging another red. I don't like 50/50.
##UNVOTE: LSB
##VOTE: gryffindor


I'd rather lynch a 100% confirmed liar.


Oh, no, you understood me wrong.
I was going to say that you had some moments in Mafia 36 where you were very pro-town. I found similarities here as well, and I was thinking about writing those in order to back you up as being town.
BUT, your vote towards LSB made me think twice.
I'm not saying it makes you scummy, I'm just saying that I'm not very keen into backing you up anymore, because I very much disagreed with your move.

Also, I was going to post this sooner, but now I'm even more annoyed.
What the fk Kenpachi?
You always make me go WTF when I play with you.
Can you please explain, how did your vote on Barundar make sense? If he was red, would it make sense that two reds die to kill LSB? Wouldn't it be easier to just triple-stack him and get it over with?

And now you're saying "well it could be this or that, we should think about it!".
I don't think you're putting too much into this game, as you only seem to be posting controversial things. I know that sometimes your approach works (like say, voting for a bunch of people to get them to talk), but you also do a lot of things that make no sense whatsoever to me, like voting for Barundar.

The only way that Barundar is scum is if he devised a way to lynch LSB and then come out as town (like hope that a DT checks him and he is Godfather), otherwise, it's a 1-1 trade for mafia which just doesn't make sense, because if LSB flipped green, then the town would 90% sure turn on Barundar.



That being said, still have no idea who to vote for.
I would vote for OriginalName because of the reasons mentioned in my previous post (bussing LSB with no explanation), but I was thinking of voting for icemac in day 1 as well, and I think LSB is right about not splitting votes.



Look at how much he writes. Look at how little he actually says. It's virtually nothing. Why? Because he is scum trying to act like he's contributing, without actually doing so. What's more, he has almost no strong, direct opinions about well, anything to do with guilt. He is okay with saying some people are innocent, but he somehow has no idea who he thinks is guilty and spends paragraphs that translate to "I DONT KNOW ANYTHING AHHHHH." His entire purpose in writing all that fluff is to make himself not look like a lurker but avoid provoking any hostility or getting any attention on himself. That is the mark of scum.

Some additional (though trivial, in comparison with the above) points of him pushing mafia objectives:

-Pushing doubt on me from the start after I bullseyed annul. He has continued that for the entire game. Note that he is the only single person to do so. Of course mafia doesn't want people listening to me.
-Putting doubt out there that jbright was really town, trying to distract us from the mafia stacking on jbright to avoid the seraph lynch.
-Continuously diverts attention from mafia under fire (annul and seraph in particular) posting many paragraph posts which say nothing and are basically utter nonsense.
-He defends annul while voting him with extreme hesitation to make himself look less suspicious all while hiding that he's trying to do that. Gee chaoser did the same thing what a coincidence! He does the exact same thing with jbright too.
-We cannot clear anyone based on their willingness to vote for fellow mafia at a certain time. Chaoser and LD also did the same thing, but that doesn't change how scum they are.

Notice a trend here?

If you want comparison, look at gryff's giant posts. He was townie, and he posted strongly about what he felt. Some of his opinions were crazy, but he didn't just right fluff, he didn't have posts with half a dozen paragraphs that could be summed up as 'i dont know.' He had content! Cubedin does not have content, he has something that looks like content but is just bullshit designed to avoid getting anyone focused on him or in the spotlight.

Now why does all this have to make him mafia? Because he is hiding things that only a mafia would need to hide. A townie has no motivation to make such substantial posts that say effectively zilch. They'd just say it and move on. But cubedin clearly has that need to make himself look like he's a helpful contributor because he knows he's guilty and is trying to hide it. And what's more, A TOWNIE WOULD HAVE A DIRECT OPINION OF WHO THEY THINK IS SCUM. Cubedin did not except when he was already under pressure himself (chaoser lynch, when mafia clearly bailed on chaoser). There is no room for debate here.

I was right about chaoser. I will be right about LD. And I'm right about Cubedin.

Mafia I'm coming for you.


Annul and his broomstick
Seraph
Chaoser

LunarDestiny
Cubedin


[image loading]
Ser Aspi
Profile Joined January 2010
France84 Posts
March 15 2011 02:19 GMT
#2490
On March 15 2011 11:14 GMarshal wrote:
Oh and gg wp scum, time for some awards

Chaoser: Sneakiest Bastard, seriously I was convinced he was town

LSB: Most dubious play (bait and switch, really?)

Coag: Most reckless play, seriously day 1 claim?

Kevoconism and Ser Aspi, best "new" players

Foolisness: Most obviously pro town player

Gryff/BM: Worst Modkill

GMarshal: Most scum defended and most unsuccessful defenses, seriously every person I defended got lynched this game

those are just the ones that stick out

oh and the winner is

The Mods
, they got to watch us slaughter each other


wtf o.O
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