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Mayor You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected, you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”. This is interesting. If it has to be public and the mayor chooses them it seems like it would be stupid/impossible for the mafia to kill the mayor if one of them is a BG, on top of that if neither guard is a mafia they are free kills. I am kind of tempted to join this game.
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On January 16 2011 16:44 Node wrote:Show nested quote +On January 16 2011 16:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Mayor You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected, you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”. This is interesting. If it has to be public and the mayor chooses them it seems like it would be stupid/impossible for the mafia to kill the mayor if one of them is a BG, on top of that if neither guard is a mafia they are free kills. I am kind of tempted to join this game. Mafia bodyguards won't protect town mayors. It's in the bodyguard role description. ^.^ I meant that the town would know if the mayor died and only 1 BG was dead that means the second BG which was publicly announced as 100% fact is red. While on the same note if the mayor picks out 2 town BG's the mafia knows who to hit to be able to kill the mayor.
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On January 23 2011 04:46 Kavdragon wrote:That was a fast two week ban... My rage overcame the time space continuum which hypertransmuted 2 weeks into roughly 4 days.
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I was banned on the 18th. Also this is my last game for 6 months minimum :O
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hey! I will run for mayor too.
My platform is only that I will destroy the souls of mafia.
That is all.
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also why does everyone keep talking about Qatol? Hes not even in the game o.O?
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On January 23 2011 22:56 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 18:13 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: also why does everyone keep talking about Qatol? Hes not even in the game o.O? Pffff. And you're running for mayor? Do try to keep up my good sir. I haven't actually read most of the thread yet. Kav is a decent and level headed townie, although I don't remember ever seeing him as mafia. I tend to be much more erratic of a player but I do get results whatever we choose I am fine with.
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Do I vote here? I don't see a thread so I will assume yes. I will vote for Kavdragon I suppose.
##Vote: Kavdragon
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On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote: Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon? Me Kavdragon, and DrH iirc.
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On January 24 2011 13:12 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 13:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote: Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon? Me Kavdragon, and DrH iirc. Hmm so far I don't really like any of the candidates. RoL didn't bring much of a platform. DrH, uggh how many times has he lead us astray us town leader? Kavdragon, I don't really like the things he is advocating for. Anyone else want to run for mayor? My platform would be self explanatory. I am a decent scumhunter, a high n1 hit target. That's about it. either you want me as a leader or you don't. Either way I am fine with it. I don't consider it mattering that much which is why I didn't go all out with mspaint and shit.
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On January 24 2011 13:48 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 13:46 DoctorHelvetica wrote: If I'm elected mayor I won't pick only people who volunteered. I will pick the two people I am most confident are town. And I will not reveal to the town who I picked. You have to: Mayor You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected , you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”. This mechanic seems stupid to me, I dunno why the two BG's are publicly announced as 100% truth. Annoying as shit and removes any skill from the role.
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On January 24 2011 14:11 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 13:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 24 2011 13:48 Amber[LighT] wrote:On January 24 2011 13:46 DoctorHelvetica wrote: If I'm elected mayor I won't pick only people who volunteered. I will pick the two people I am most confident are town. And I will not reveal to the town who I picked. You have to: Mayor You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected , you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”. This mechanic seems stupid to me, I dunno why the two BG's are publicly announced as 100% truth. Annoying as shit and removes any skill from the role. There's no flip, so the mayor would be practically invincible if the bodyguards weren't reveled. God, I am so dumb. I can't believe I didn't put those together lol
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I would take a BG spot if no one really wants it. Although that would just let the mafia kill two birds with one stone. I think someone mentioned killing OriginalName if they were elected, although I don't see anything saying the mayor gets to kill someone.
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Oh and as for my general apathy, I am just tired as hell lately. When does the day end anyway?
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TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you.
As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created.
I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom.
Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why.
In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches.
Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die.
Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck.
DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk.
Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor.
Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it.
Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia.
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+ Show Spoiler +Sorry if any of that looks like shit, I didn't reread and I am still tired as hell
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To answer what you said amber, the reason I responded about my playstyle was to save drh the time of reading about what I do as mafia. I don't think I spent too much time discrediting him, all I really said was he could be a really dangerous mayor, especially if hes mafia.
And I didn't see the day 1 lynch thing in the OP.
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First off, who the hell said I conceded? That vote was a day old.
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On January 25 2011 08:55 BrownBear wrote: Who is aidinai? More importantly, why has he managed to completely derail town with one useless post?
Let's focus more on the mayoral debate. For one, I wonder why RoL voted Kav without giving reason. Maybe he's just not voting for himself, either because he doesn't think he can, or because he is being polite. Or maybe he's decided he doesn't want the mayoral position that much after all. If so, why? To answer this. I generally don't like voting for myself in an election, I feel like its bad taste. But if people are going to think I am conceding the position when I just pushing for it then I will change my vote.
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On January 25 2011 10:45 SiNiquity wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 10:33 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Yeah I'm good with your case against ON Kav, and you just made me feel a lot better about voting for you. However several people have voted for both you and RoL now and failed to give a reason for those votes. I'd like everyone to justify their votes in the thread for later reference. I voted for Kav because he seems like he's going to be a good, active mayor. Since he inadvertently started his campaign prior to the roles given out, the chances of him being mafia are as good as an RNG without any of the downsides. I liked RoL's long post, but it was too long overdue and not enough to persuade me. I remember a while ago they used to ban that in games. I guessed we stopped though. Running before the game started is stupid and doesn't give you shit to analyze. They can use it as a point of trust when they could of lucked their way into a strong mafia position.
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Kav, my entire platform is not to put all your eggs in one potentially scum basket. By revolving everything around the mayor you are dooming the town. Stop with the stupidity.
I am leaning towards Amber[LighT] for my Day 1 lynch.
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I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason.
So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that
Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more.
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I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more".
Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting.
I will switch my vote back too kav.
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Yeah that's true. I think we haven't really discussed how important census is either. Obviously the first night we should check to see how many mafia there are so we can periodically check our progress. I suggest every other night we check mafia and figure something else out that is useful to do.
My current thoughts are N1 check all mafia count. N2 we check serial killer count. That should give us an idea of the KP count. It might even give us insight into clues if we understand how many of the night kills are ALWAYS going to be attributed to the SK's. From previous games if the mafia KP formula is X/2 = KP where X is total mafia members then each night KP/clues will alternate between the players while SK's own their KP solely and we don't have to worry about overlapping.
I think the best way to attempt to use census is constantly alternating between checking SK's and checking mafia total count that way we kind of have an idea of how many mafia/SK are left and can judge our progress and get an idea of a mafia pushed a bad lynch thinking we couldn't tell the difference. The reasoning being that I expect mafia to attempt to be more aggressive in this set up since there is no flips so they don't face true repercussions for their actions. The only issue with this plan is it relies on the mayor being honest and town aligned. Its another reason we need a town aligned mayor, census will give us a HUGE advantage that I woudln't want to throw away. Personally I think Kav is probably a townie so I am not too worried about either one of us getting it. Although I do find it strange that the mafia aren't vying for such a powerful role which is what makes me a bit suspicious of Kav, but my read on him is he wouldn't be comfortable enough to do this his first game as mafia and I will stick to that I suppose.
Tomorrow before I go to work I am going to try to do some actual clue and behavioral analysis as well as look over the OG guy. Since Day ends tomorrow one of us has to decide on a lynch target for sure.
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A question I want to pose to the hosts though.
You have the power of Census. Every night, you have the ability to determine the number of any alignment or role in the game. For instance, you can check the number of mafia total, OR the number of godfathers, OR the number of roleblockers in the game. The valid alignments are Town (returns the number of vanilla townies), Special Town, Mafia, and Serial Killer. All roles listed here can be counted. For the purposes of census, bodyguards, the mayor, and godfathers count as their original alignments and roles.
When this power is used during the night phase does it give you the Census before or after the kills are calculated? For example lets say there are 10 townies during the night phase and the mafia hits 3 of them meaning that by day there would be 7. If I censused townies would I 7 or 10? This is assuming the census is returned with the day post and NOT immediately.
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On January 26 2011 01:24 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 23:35 Kavdragon wrote: Perhaps this is a stupid question to ask, but why does the mayor need to be the one with the plan? He's already been given the power of census, and the protection of the bodyguards, why give him the reigns as well?
The biggest reason I can think of is that the mayor is given protection, so you want an active and helpful townie. But that doesn't mean that they have to become some god who's word is law or anything. The power of who is lynched, what the town plans are, and all of that should be in the town's hands. If the mayor doesn't have good enough , or isn't vocal enough, then why listen to him?
Like RoL said, don't put all your hope in one person. Don't let one person decide what's going to happen. This discourages activity, and makes it easy for the mistakes of one person to decide the game. Everyone should be vocal in what they think should be done. No one should rely on another person to make their decisions for them. Well, the mayor gets the most information out of all the town aligned players and therefore any plan relies on having that census information which only the mayor has access to. Also he is the only known player with a specific role. Of course by default, the mayor needs to be align checked right away to make sure we aren't getting mis-information. If the mayor is a townie though, then he is arguably the most powerful townie. I am pretty sure an alignment check doesn't work on the mayor. DT checks show up as him being mayor only.
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Oh well, so I lost the election. Kav what are you going to do with Census?
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On January 27 2011 11:28 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 11:17 kitaman27 wrote:RoL's Profile Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth;
And both that morning equally lay In leaves no step had trodden black. Oh, I kept the first for another day! Yet knowing how way leads on to way, I doubted if I should ever come back. I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference. Every city has its dark place, the area that no one in their right mind will go. Ours is the forest, the woods that loom in the center. Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there, and certainly no one would venture there in the night.
But tonight, the forest stirs. Its solitude is intruded upon. First thing that comes to mind points to RoL. Murder scene could be the road less traveled. I quickly glanced through all of the of the profiles and the only hint i could find was in RoL's profile which would correspond to the story That seems like a ridiculous stretch.
I was roleblocked last night.
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I will say this, I didn't even read all of Kita or somoene else profile. So ridiculously long I didn't even feel like it. Plus I think LSB would punish them with an obvious clue so that anyone who put the effort into trying would be rewarded.
Anyway, I think I figured out a clue. I noticed a recurring trend in the two day posts we have and its a reference to an animal-like mafia.
The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make
As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat? I see three possibilities for this clue. Pandain (Now Deconduo) who I think is the strongest. http://i.imgur.com/q14Fx.png Profile talks about his dogs.
The other person it might reference is brownbear, barring just his name his profile references cats.
I think pandain/deconduo is stronger for the clue, but I would do a behavioral analysis before I would jump to anything crazy and kill one. _____________- The next thing I find interesting is TheAldo. I think TheAldo MIGHT have been mafia killed by the SK. If you look at both Day posts they both have one person whose kills are talked of in first person. The killer is marked by cowardice and fear of blood. That person is the serial killer. I will do more of an analysis on that later, but this is to focus on TheAldo.
If you look at the scenario of the Day post its presailing party in Florida. TheAldo's profile directly talks about how he is a Floridian. ____________
The next thing is I think one of our killers apparently has a hole in his head
It was outside, our ship’s nurse Korynne was on the ground, hand clutching her slit throat, black blood gurgling onto the ground. Behind her, a man dressed completely in black, knife clutched in his hand, a hole in his head. A hole in his head? The only person I really saw this relating to was very loosely to Amber. If they were trying to be vague Amber has a gif of The Situation in his profile. That guys retarded. Which is what a hole in his head could be implying.
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I just realized, I may have misinterpreted a clue which would doubt my analysis of TheAldo clue.
And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on. I think this line might actually refer to Aldo watching Meapak getting killed. Which would mean TheAldo is a detective. I initially read it as belonging to the SK, but then the SK follows him and kills him which is all in first person. I don't think the clues would lapse in and out of first person for the SK.
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Oh and how many mafia did you census Kavdragon? Its important!
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I won't bother because its a bunch of shit. I am not mafia.
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Alright, I reread his analysis. I will give it a decent rebuttal. The core of his arguments revolve around him beleiving a mafia has to have run for mayor. My play was a little shaky and inconsistent. I called for analysis but didn't really do any which is a terrible example to set. Its a good point, a mafia tell is usually urging other people to do things but not doing anything themselves. I usually consider that a more late game orientated tell and is usually accompanied by echoing other peoples arguments.
I will say this, I consider the way you analyzed the clues a little suspicious. From what the hosts showed us it is way more simple than that. Being tied by duct tape referred to Qatol's Burn Notice quote. Quite simple. Entire paragraphs detailing the scenery doesn't fit the bill for a clue. The reason I say that I find that method of clue reading suspicious is because the way to read it and the example shown seem obvious, and on top of that the BEST way for mafia to play aggressive without it being obvious is to abuse clues. A behavior analysis can be very hard from a mafia perspective while looking at a clue is just a matter making a person match a clue, not a clue match a person.
Overall I thought his analysis was pretty weak. His conclusion just sums up what he said and makes it sound much better than it actually was. If you read the entire thing and read all of his points and look at his clue analysis with a critical eye it shouldn't be hard to realize his conclusion about me being red and his sureness doesn't seem to have the proof he is claiming.
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If that's true I think a hit most likely got blocked last night. Even if the set up is favored for mafia with no alignment flipping, I really doubt it would only be 1 KP. 2 even seems low even considering the SK presence. Has anyone confirmed protection or has a vet taken a hit? If no one claims there is a good chance the mafia actually hit the SK.
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If you read the clues the SK probably is the kill who talks in first person meaning the SK/mafia didn't stack. Of the players killed I doubt any of them would of been stacked by the mafia themselves, meapak didn't scream blue and I speculate that TheAldo was killed by the SK. I believe OriginalName or TheAldo was a potential mafia death.
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On January 28 2011 13:38 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 13:07 kitaman27 wrote:On January 28 2011 12:56 GMarshal wrote: Hence I think we should pressure and, if we don't get satisfactory results, lynch them. For now, I'm going to vote Coagulation , I may switch over to another equaly inactive player later, but for now Coagulation's pro inactive attitude seems highly suspicious to me. Despite me poking at coag, I still think we should focus the lynch between nemesis and RoL rather than spread it out between a bunch of people. RoL has been laying low relative to how he started and nemesis hasn't really defended himself adequately either. I'm more concerned about RoL laying low than Nemesis' clue connections. We can analyze how the clues connect to Nem all we want, but it's very strange that RoL was reasonably active for a day leading up to Kav being chosen as mayor, then disappeared off the radar. With that in mind, time to take a closer look at our possibly-friendly neighborhood RebirthOfLegenD. IMPORTANT STATS: Posts in thread: 37 Posts Day 1: 29 Posts Day 2: 8 (At this rate, he'll have 17 or so by the end of the day cycle.) This is an interesting thing, which I just mentioned. He's been significantly more inactive Day 2 than Day 1. This could be attributed to a number of things (he's not trying to run a mayoral campaign, everyone's a little less active day 2, etc.), but really, it's worth noticing. It by itself means nothing, though, lets look at more stuff. PROFILE: He has no photo, so that's easy. Let's look at his public profile: Show nested quote +Welcome to the war
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
"What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up like a raisin in the sun? Or fester like a sore-- And then run? Does it stink like rotten meat? Or crust and sugar over-- like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?"
Page 150 of auto ban list
Lag was just temp banned for 1 week by Hot_Bid.
That account was created on 2009-03-04 00:41:24 and had 16 posts.
Reason: I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you want to troll, I can tell you I have no patience for that. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long moderation career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you stop the stupidity now, that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, in one week, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will ban you. And his quote: "Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!" Nice plug of the mafia forum there, and I was unable to find any clues pointing to that. To his public profile though... People have mentioned the "You can't run" possibly referring to MP running away, I'm not sure I buy it. It's a very very tenuous connection at best. That said, I'm not sure Node/LSB wanted to make the clues as obvious as they seem to be about Nemesis, so... perhaps. Moving on to the really important bit: ANALYSIS OF HIS POSTS: Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 18:11 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: hey! I will run for mayor too.
My platform is only that I will destroy the souls of mafia.
That is all. His first post after the game has really gotten started. I can't tell if this is a subtle critique of Kav and kita's silly mayoral platforms, or whether he actually was serious from the get-go. Regardless, he gets more serious about his platform quickly: Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 23:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 23 2011 22:56 Jackal58 wrote:On January 23 2011 18:13 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: also why does everyone keep talking about Qatol? Hes not even in the game o.O? Pffff. And you're running for mayor? Do try to keep up my good sir. I haven't actually read most of the thread yet. Kav is a decent and level headed townie, although I don't remember ever seeing him as mafia. I tend to be much more erratic of a player but I do get results whatever we choose I am fine with. Oh wait nevermind. A soft endorsement of Kav. Going off of meta, which I agree with in terms of Kav being a good player and a reasonable dude. I'm sure he gets serious about his candidacy at some point... Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 09:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Do I vote here? I don't see a thread so I will assume yes. I will vote for Kavdragon I suppose.
##Vote: Kavdragon Not yet... Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you.
As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created.
I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom.
Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why.
In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches.
Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die.
Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck.
DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk.
Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor.
Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it.
Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia. BOOM. There we go. This is his real platform here. The most important thing here is, he tells us his playstyle. I've only played a couple games with him, but he plays pretty much like he said, so he is telling us the truth here. Not a very scummy move at all, giving the town the key with which to catch and lynch you. He goes on to talk about metastrategy regarding the other candidates. Here, I think he sells Dr. H a little bit short, (I think Dr. H is a pretty good player and a decent scumhunter) but he's very clear about what he wants the plan for town to be: He's not taking a central role, all faith is not placed in him, he's just playing the role almost of cheerleader, getting town to get psyched about catching scum, getting them all involved. That's not a scummy move at all, in fact that's the opposite. A scum mayor would be much more like "trust in me guys, I'll save you!", then lead town in circles while mafia ate them alive. RoL wants town to win, that much is clear from this post. He disappears for a while after this post, which is kind of strange. I guess his apathy got the better of him... He comes back after most people have abandoned his campaign and tries to save it with a few one liners that outline good strategy, but in a really lazy, half-assed way. Then: Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason. So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more. This is the core of his platform, and rehashes the above long post into a much more cohesive idea: Mayor-centric towns lose games. This is true. Also, he calls out Amber, which ended up being inconsequential - so far. Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more".
Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting.
I will switch my vote back too kav. Good honest debate here, discussing how the mason role works. Again, so far I haven't seen anything that's triggering my scumdar. I could go into Day 2, but not enough has been posted yet. CONCLUSION: It seems the only real case against RoL is from his inactivity Day 2 + one really tenuous clue connection. He's been outlining some very helpful practices town should be following, hasn't contradicted himself yet, and hasn't done anything obviously scummy. The only weird thing is his apathy. He's come out and posted great stuff, but very sporadically, and his heart doesn't really seem to be in this game like it has in the past. For that reason, I'm pegging him as Green, and a very apathetic green. What RoL should do is try and recapture some of the energy of past games, and get his ass in gear to provide this high quality analysis he says is coming. Just so you know, you hit this 100%. I point this out and I know you can't trust what I say until the game is over but this was a very very good analysis imo. I like that you try to take into account exactly what I am thinking at the time and not just attempting to reinterpret something I post. A good player will rarely slip up in individuals posts and the best way to figure out there alignment is to look at what the general goal behind everything they say is and try to figure out what is going on with them.
A lot of the time I am inactive is because of work. Today I worked 10-7 then hung out with my girlfriend until 1, so I was gone most of the day. The extreme spam in the thread makes reading hard. Based off this post though I would wager you are town. Superb analysis and I am actually impressed.
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On January 28 2011 01:28 papapanda wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 27 2011 23:48 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 23:42 papapanda wrote: so siN is a vet? (or SK teehee:D) Although i doubt bum's role(and brownbear, a little bit), his clue analysis seems legit...RoL is basically only stating that bum is abusing clue-->so bum is mafia and clue are more simple(?) than the way bum is analyzing them. Bleh this is why i dislike the clues, please don't lynch anyone just because of clues!!!!
Wait so who of them do you think is innocent and who are you suspecting here? First, bum's last minute mayor vote randomize try was suspicious, as many people already pointed out. Also he is dropping a ton of pressure on RoL with the clues. Second, brownbear was kinda acting scummy when he agreed to bum's idea imediately. Do you guys realise that bb switched from RoL-->Kav and then back with the following reason: Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 02:43 BrownBear wrote: ##Unvote: Kavdragon ##Vote: RebirthOfLegenD
Gotta go with my gut on this one. Lastly its RoL, who, as i see it, is not responding with any logical reasoning, and is instead only counter accusing bum(where i read somewhere that it is a trait of mafias:D)Conclusion: bum is suspicious based on rash actions; might need to keep our heads up. RoL has some obvious clues(that i REALLY do not want to go by)but is also acting a bit suspicious, again, I would keep a close eye on... I think bum and RoL both have greater influence over the town BUT... until further info... BB has been jumping all over the place and backing off real fast when he feels threatened, and, perhaps most outstandingly, doesn't have any legit reason behind most of his actions. Right now I am "going with my guts" on my vote on BB for lynch(not because of clues, i would like to point out, but because of his actions). *haha, unsure of some gramatical structure of english, too much SAT classes recently my head is a bit messed up>< I read this and before I forget I wanted to respond. Read what I wrote. I made sure I wasn't accusing bum of mafia off the bat. I would never do that until I am completely finished with an analysis and since I haven't read his posts yet I would only point out some things I find suspicious. I feel I made that CLEAR with the post he is referring to. The content of that post says that I find the way in which bum is using clues to be suspicious and mention how I believe it fits the profile of just how mafia would be playing this game. Clue Based Aggression. A townie will try to link clues to players and a mafia will try to link players to clues. The abstract way Bum decided to use clues to capitalize on my mild inactivity wreaked of the latter method of clue usage. I wanted to point that out and it wasn't OMGUS.
To just say what I actually think about Bum so far it would be just off that analysis of me which is sad that some people thought held weight. The behavior aspect of his analysis on me was inaccurate and wrong. Brownbear had it right. Since I thought I was being pretty transparent I find it odd someone I would consider decent would pursue such an odd line of interpretation. Only when I looked at his clue analysis was it a big T_T moment as I explained earlier.
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LSB: A tip, if you can figure out what clues I wrote, and which one Node wrote, it could be useful Just to intrude for a moment here. This is like saying "If you see the difference between what I perceived the inkblots to be, or what Node perceived the inkblots to be then you would have a better chance of figuring out what the inkblots the clues link to.
For example, Node might look at a picture of a Banana and think of monkeys, while LSB would look at the same picture and think of a dick. So half the clues are about a monkey and the other half are about a dick.
Edit: Then the person reading the clues might think of video games (donkey kong) relating to the clue or a picture of a superhero in someones profile.
IE: Your at square one.
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On February 05 2011 13:01 Kenpachi wrote: ALSOOOOOOOO, FoS on Barundar for just wanting to kill me. STOP STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS POSTING OH MY FUCKING GOD... From now on every time you write something I want you to stop, think about it for around 5 minutes, then decide if it is still a good idea to post that. If you do this I promise you will stop getting lynched as much.
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On February 11 2011 10:47 Kavdragon wrote: It's about time I joined my faithful BG anyways. GMarshal, you were all I could have asked for in a bodyguard. Except bulletproof. You coulda worked on that aspect.
But yes, I too am interested to see what's special about this post. I used to have a vest that could help you with that.... trade you for 3$?
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On February 11 2011 14:15 bumatlarge wrote:See kav you are vastly overestimating town here. The second I posted the DT claim, HALF THE TOWN SAID OH OK GOOD WE HAVE A DT, LETS KILL THE SK. People started to doubt you lol. The roleblock thing I was hoping cube would claim but beneather claiming it was a kinda set back and a blessing. If mods didnt say publicly in the thread that LD got a late PM of something and cube claimed it, I would have argued to high heaven to get LD lynched, and then we still would have had 2 KP. Dont think I could have gotten LD lynched? I got you to lynch RoL, didn't I? yeah [But really I should stop trying to be too pro-active as mafiab, it never helps us... but it's more fun. I simply did the plan, because I didn't want to win by doing nothing. Even if it's why we lost, i don't really regret it, it was more exciting then sitting their watching town go at each other's throat over clues while idly defending myself from kav. Kav was the MVP by far. No one on town came close, and without him, we would still be in the game, everyone would have though me a DT still and I think it would be lylo. ITS A LIE! You have to be a baller mafia player. Look at Merc Mafia! That game was insane :O
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yeah I never played much TF2. I think I bought it over the holiday sale but only played it for like an hour. Nice job though. I still have that half an analysis written so I will post that and maybe post the other half. I remember incog had a bunch of critiques on it, but I still think its decent.
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Preface: What is analysis? I wanted to start this guide off by showing you guys how you should be analyzing and reading threads. There is a very distinct difference between the two. But before you can learn to analyze a thread you have to know what you are looking for. Thus I engage in what I refer to as Mafia Profiling. Now this varies from game to game and in each set up you should read it and see if you can draw any conclusions from how the generic mafia member will be acting.
Now in a lot of more generic settings it might be a bit harder to pinpoint experienced mafia players because they will know what you are looking for and attempt to avoid doing it. The thing is a mafia can never perfectly hide among town, because if they did they would actually be contributing and hurting their own team. With experienced players the key is reading between the lines and figuring out, but this guide is not focused on helping you pick out pro players, its meant to give you a guide to figure out what exactly you should be looking for and what factors mold that.
Part 1: Analyzing the rules to develop tells and general mindsets Most games follow a generally accepted set of rules. No clues, flip reveals, standard roles. In those games the tells remain the same. I would generally look for people being aggressive, show signs of tunnel vision, and the bigger tell for me, ignoring arguments and information and a further extreme of that would be misrepresenting other players points of view also known as a Scarecrow argument.
Now the important part isn't what the tells are, it is why are those the tells and how did I come up with them? The goal is to think how a mafia will think. If the entire mafia team is quiet and doesn't put themselves out there to lead a lynch, then they are sacrificing their control over the towns direction. Knowing that we can assume at ANY given time there is at LEAST one active mafia member. An example would be in XXXV. Annul was the ONLY active mafia for the first days until he died, and after he died Why/Brocket were forced to become more active. This doesn't mean all the mafia will be active, putting 1-2 players out there at a time gives mafia a good representation and could allow the remaining members to lurk/agree and wagon and push it forward allowing the town to fall into a mob mentality dooming themselves.
The next tell I pointed to was tunnel vision. From a mafia perspective tunnel vision is good. It allows you to focus your efforts and your arguments on one person which means you also have less people disagreeing with you, meaning you have more people inclined vote with your opinion because you are accusing less of your potential allies.
To explain that, let's say I am mafia. I want to get Qatol lynched and write up an analysis on him. But for good measure I also write something on BC. When I attack BC it makes him trust me less and therefore less likely to vote for Qatol like I want him to. This example may seem a little extreme. A more realistic example would be me pushing Qatol, someone else suggesting BC and me shrugging that off and pushing Qatol as the more obvious/important lynch.
The last tell I mentioned can be summed up by what Ace said. Mafia isn't about who/what is right. It's about what you can convince people is right. To go a little old school a great example would be Ace vs. DT claim Folca in Mafia III. Folca had Ace with a DT check, but Ace convinced the town it was bullshit so he managed to off a DT before he died. Serious damage control skills. Now what you might be wondering is what does this have to do with misrepresentation? Or a convenient lapse in literacy? If I was red there could sometimes be certain information I don't want to deal respond to, but I see a weaker point in an argument. I Scarecrow his argument and attack a point he didn't make or attack a much weaker point. In this case, an argument is only as strong as its weakest component, and if you can't find a weak enough component, then fuck it. Make one. The only reason to do this is if you don't believe your case is strong enough to stand on solid facts, which would only really be if you KNEW the person you attacked was not mafia.
Part 2: XXXVI, a setup specific analysis. Node and LSB's set up has some awesomely unique properties, clues and no death revealing. The mayor role of Census also adds an awesome element to this. But how does this affect the general mafia modus operandi? It gives them a false sense of security which I predict will lead them to a more aggressive style where they aren't as afraid of town backlash due to no flips. What I think the mafia will focus on is heavy clue analysis with a small dose of behavior analysis for good measure. We can also expect a more active and relentless approach since the mayor is the ONLY person who can possibly know if the lynch worked correctly, and even then there is a delay of 24 hours which might let the mafia wiggle out of the spotlight after a successful mislynch. I would predict extreme tunnel vision, aggression, and a heavier emphasis on clue analyzing when accusing people. Another thing I would look for is any attempt to undermine the mayor and any attempt to get him lynched since I would view that as only benefitting the mafia. Although I would definitely keep an eye on the mayor to try and discern if you believe he is disseminating misinformation, or vying for too much power. Most of the tells I established for this game set I have already went over, IE: Tunneling and aggression. Those will be the same general idea and behavior just to what I believe will be more extreme. I will however go over the newly introduced idea of how they would use and abuse clues, and why. My view on clues is that they are stupid from an in game perspective. At least to use for hunting mafia in the way they are designed. Clues are like the Rorschach inkblot test. Completely subjective to what the maker see of them, and therefore are unreliable. It's like me trying to guess what you thought of when you saw a picture of a Banana. Maybe the host thought of Donkey Kong while I thought of raging erections. The point being that trying to discern how the clues link to player can be trivial at best and is ONLY really useful late game nail in the coffin analysis. IE: This guy lead the lynch on 3 green guys, tunneled hard, plus a monkey has been killing people and his profile picture is a giant fucking dick, which is obviously a banana metaphor, which monkeys eat. EZ'd. While this is all great and interesting the fun part comes from the mafia perspective. When someone is mafia you can't escape the feeling of knowing EXACTLY who is innocent and who is not. Barring an SK of course. So doing behavioral analysis becomes very hard because you can see someone say something that you might perceive as scum normally, but secretly knowing it's not has a mafia second guessing himself constantly when he writes something. Hell, when I write a post I might reread it three times to make sure there are no slip ups or obvious shit that I am forcing myself to pretend is a red read. With clues a mafia member sees a great way to analyze in a WAY more comfortable manner. While a townie will be trying to match clues to players, a mafia will match players to clues. This means that a mafia will stare at someone's profile and see what abstract inferences he can draw to the perceived clues in the day post. This means a lot of the focus of any analysis will generally be on one player which that mafia has distorted their subjective views of the clues to fit this individual. A way to spot this is simple. You read it and you go "How the fuck did they make that connection?" The thing is you might trick yourself into thinking they are just on a whole different level of thinking, but the simpler solution is that they are just red pushing a mislynch in what they think is a convincing townie way, but is in fact.... BULLSHIT!
Part 3: Applying our profile to XXXVI players Now for the fun part! We have worked up an analysis and figured out what exactly we expect the mafia to be doing. This should allow us to read posts CRITICALLY. What that means is that you are constantly waiting for the signs you know have to show up eventually. A scum player can only hide his colors for so long. If that means you chill back for a day and wait for them to fuck up then do what you have to do, but vigilance is key. You might miss a couple of minor slips if you are newer to analysis but once you see that post that sets off your scumdar and heart begins to race, don't let it go. Begin reading all that persons posts and see if you spot more of the tells we reasoned should exist. As a warning, there is ALWAYS a chance that the player might be green and just said something stupid. So don't force yourself to see something that isn't there. Analyzing involves an extreme level of self control to know when you are forcing yourself to see something that isn't there, and when the truth has just stared you in the eyes.
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I remember that game Qatol. I try not to think about it. Was that the game you were flipped as a tricolor mayor being like a townie/mayor/godfather? I think that was a disgusting game from town perspective but we somehow still won iirc? I might be crossing two games.
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