TL Mafia XXXVI
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Divinek
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Divinek
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On January 24 2011 07:41 kitaman27 wrote: I would gladly trade myself for a mafia. The census is nice and all, but eliminating a scum would surely be worth the loss. The problem is that the mafia are always connected to each other. They know each others identities and will attempt to manipulate the town into saving one of their own. The ability to interpret lynch results should not be sacrificed in order to receive novelty information. Trading damn near anything is worth it for a scum player in this game imo. I think the first census to check the number of scum in the game makes the most sense that way we wont spend countless pages trying to figure out what the number of NKs do or do not mean. I don't think it'd be as beneficial to keep checking their numbers every night with it. It may be more useful to figure out the amount of blues we have to discern better plans of action, but I'm not entirely sure yet. Also just popping into to say I'm alive hii | ||
Divinek
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On January 25 2011 02:35 Kavdragon wrote: So, perhaps I'm naive to have tried this, but my support for BG volunteering was based off the fact that Vet's should KNOW that they should reveal themselves, and townies should also understand this. Thus, when the volunteers are asked for, they will more likely be townies. The mafia would also know that there is a strong likely hood that they are townies, not Vets, but they would not risk wasting KP on them. This would both protect the BG's who are not Vets and put the real vets in a position that is more likely to be hit. You realize that whole stance is a big wifom type of thing right. I suppose making the mafia more uncomfortable is always a better idea. But the chance will ALWAYS exist that the BGs could be vets because nothing is really confirmed for anyone, especially in this snazzy set up. So claiming or not, or saying things or not doesnt really make much of a difference if all you're aiming for is some kind of mind game. Because in that sense those things already exist | ||
Divinek
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On January 27 2011 05:00 Eti307 wrote: Sure the game is about analyzing, but before the first kills/night actions it's hard to actually analyse anything imo. There will be much more discussion to do once the first night is over Well especially in a set up like this it's harder to gain as much from NKs, because naturally not all of them may be town. The sk could hit a mafia etc, and you have no idea what you lost. All you can hope to grasp at is the fact that someone is dead, and they were likely town, it can be a large waste of time to try and discern why because mafia may have weird reasons we are unaware of because they have more information than us. So really all you're waiting for is more people to be dead lol, but the extra clues will be nice | ||
Divinek
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On January 27 2011 15:21 Coagulation wrote: i dont like not knowing what roles people are when they die makes it 100x harder for town. i dont see how this could be balanced fairly. I would think it's the clues that help balance it out a bit, plus maybe we get more blues or something | ||
Divinek
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On January 28 2011 13:38 BrownBear wrote: Moving on to the really important bit: ANALYSIS OF HIS POSTS: His first post after the game has really gotten started. I can't tell if this is a subtle critique of Kav and kita's silly mayoral platforms, or whether he actually was serious from the get-go. Regardless, he gets more serious about his platform quickly: Oh wait nevermind. A soft endorsement of Kav. Going off of meta, which I agree with in terms of Kav being a good player and a reasonable dude. I'm sure he gets serious about his candidacy at some point... Not yet... BOOM. There we go. This is his real platform here. The most important thing here is, he tells us his playstyle. I've only played a couple games with him, but he plays pretty much like he said, so he is telling us the truth here. Not a very scummy move at all, giving the town the key with which to catch and lynch you. He goes on to talk about metastrategy regarding the other candidates. Here, I think he sells Dr. H a little bit short, (I think Dr. H is a pretty good player and a decent scumhunter) but he's very clear about what he wants the plan for town to be: He's not taking a central role, all faith is not placed in him, he's just playing the role almost of cheerleader, getting town to get psyched about catching scum, getting them all involved. That's not a scummy move at all, in fact that's the opposite. A scum mayor would be much more like "trust in me guys, I'll save you!", then lead town in circles while mafia ate them alive. RoL wants town to win, that much is clear from this post. He disappears for a while after this post, which is kind of strange. I guess his apathy got the better of him... He comes back after most people have abandoned his campaign and tries to save it with a few one liners that outline good strategy, but in a really lazy, half-assed way. Then: This is the core of his platform, and rehashes the above long post into a much more cohesive idea: Mayor-centric towns lose games. This is true. Also, he calls out Amber, which ended up being inconsequential - so far. Good honest debate here, discussing how the mason role works. Again, so far I haven't seen anything that's triggering my scumdar. I could go into Day 2, but not enough has been posted yet. CONCLUSION: It seems the only real case against RoL is from his inactivity Day 2 + one really tenuous clue connection. He's been outlining some very helpful practices town should be following, hasn't contradicted himself yet, and hasn't done anything obviously scummy. The only weird thing is his apathy. He's come out and posted great stuff, but very sporadically, and his heart doesn't really seem to be in this game like it has in the past. For that reason, I'm pegging him as Green, and a very apathetic green. What RoL should do is try and recapture some of the energy of past games, and get his ass in gear to provide this high quality analysis he says is coming. ehh while I'm not feeling the whole jump on RoL thing either I feel you clear him too easily based on almost leading yourself into passivity. I'm not sure the implications of decisions like this, but we can't really be waiting for people to 'slip up' or make obvious contradictions, because experienced players like him are far less likely to do something so blatant to everyone else. Sure he could define his meta and play like it but that's.... so easy isnt it? I mean there's no hard evidence against him, but there's no hard evidence for him. It's pretty hard to be getting too much on people this early into the game. Clues help, but it seems so far these clues have a few interpretations and the flip thing hardly comes into play after one kill sooo, keep an eye on your favourite people! I know I've got my eyes on people, but no one has really done anything, but we can't exactly wait can we... It's good that pressure is being put on people, I mean I keep pressuring myself to post more but I have to fight people around me just to get time on here lol, so I usually just have time to keep up on the thread but not write anything out. And why are impervious and lunar arguing over behaviour above me? If you think someone is guilty VOTE EM, post em, attack em! | ||
Divinek
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On January 28 2011 17:04 Barundar wrote: You seem to be writing in a very non commital way, softly pushing for RoL. Your post comes off as wishy washy. Mind posting some of the people you are keeping track off and why? Personally I disagree that we can't wait with lynching one of the potential deadliest townies. Regarding tube he was just as inactive as this in HPmafia, he managed to not get modkilled for like 3 days, with 1 post and 1 vote per day, and not a word on mafia IRC. Tube if you really want to play mafia here, start posting, or you got another modkill and a ban comming your way... just watching the more well known names, cause they are dangerous fellows if they plant zee seeds of evil in your mind! of course im not committing to RoL that's the whole point. If I thought he was worth killing then I would vote for him, I just dont think people should dismiss others so easily as well. I'm confused as to why you label him as a townie then you say we shouldn't wait to lynch him. Was that a scum slip? | ||
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On January 28 2011 17:17 Barundar wrote: You dodged my question on posting a list. While one of the more well known players will probably be mafia for balance, it's usually a ton easier to find their newb team mates, and even experienced players will screw up in the long run - the fact they are even alive in end game is scummy. What do you think of him then? if i post the list that devoids my entire point of the list right now. It's not like i make crazy spreadsheets or anything like some people, i justttt remember I think RoL is just another dude coasting along, hell he's probably even a blue but I dont really see him as too mafia like atm. | ||
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On January 29 2011 06:38 BrownBear wrote: Jesus, if that's the attitude you're taking, why did you even bother signing up in the first place? yes i have no qualms with my vote because of that | ||
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On January 30 2011 08:49 Barundar wrote: Reason for vigi to claim: To get a confirmed townie. Why waste a DT check on someone who can confirm himself? We know night KP is 3, and unless RoL is the laziest SK ever, it will be 3 tonight as well. Anything above that is a vigi hit. Why are you worried about a mafia claiming to have done a vigi hit? It's just a matter of the real vigi counter claiming, and then we are trading 1 of us for 1 of them by lynching both. Reason I would suggest vigi to claim before the day post is that he knows for certain there will be clues towards him in that day post. Mafia can't be sure if they are the ones who will have clues against them in the day post, so fakeclaiming before it's posted is a gamble for them. I agree with medic protection on LD, some great clue analysis done by him. I'd suggest DivineK in addition to other suspects for DT check, I think he responded badly to my pressure. Isnt there a ton of scenarios where vigi trying to claim and call out his hit goes wrong? Like he could just be a mafia member, and then the NKs could end up as 3 or even less than 3 and there could be any number of reasons for that like: mafia stacked, mafia hit a vet, mafia hit med prot, mafia hit sk i dont really see how he can be confirmed unless all kills are successful and the NKs are indeed 4 and even if he does get confirmed what good is that? So he's confirmed what GOOD is a confirmed townie, sure you can trust his opinions but lets be honest that doesnt mean anything he says is going to be RIGHT and the person who claims vigi is probably going to otherwise be inactive and useless lol. So I suppose it could be better than nothing | ||
Divinek
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On January 31 2011 06:20 kitaman27 wrote: And possibly the reason the SK hit wasn't sent in :p you know tongues aside that makes some sense. The SK would want to claim that he was saved, because if mafia hit him and he didnt claim they would almost know for sure that he was SK, I mean why else wouldnt you claim? If med saved you would want to claim. If you were a vet you'd want to claim cause you already soaked up your hit. Because then if they assume he's SK they'll want to push his lynch right away. So if he makes them think he's not SK then kekeke safe for another day or maybe even forever | ||
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On January 31 2011 12:00 Jackal58 wrote: No I can't I haven't attempted to get hit. then why would you claim your role -_- it defeats the entire purpose of it | ||
Divinek
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On January 31 2011 12:13 Jackal58 wrote: Because that option never occurred to me. I'm new at this and have a wicked habit of dying night one. First time I was something other than a vanilla townie. It seems to me someone who actually had the role of veteran would take the few seconds back to understand the purpose of their role(in reality they'd probably think about it alot since y'know it's their role). So that seems to leave you as being the person who is not actually a veteran | ||
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On February 01 2011 13:34 Impervious wrote: I think we can get an idea of the KP of the mafia and how many SK there are (could be 1 or 2, possibly 0 if we got really lucky) by seeing how many people bite the dust tonight, and comparing it to the trends we've already seen in previous nights. I don't see how knowing the number of SK being as important as knowing if we got a hit on the mafia or not - if we got it, we may be able to get a couple more in the next few days. If we wait a day to know, it may screw things up..... At least, that's my thoughts on it. I agree. I think more information is gained for us by knowing if we hit a mafia then trying to draw connections from that. Knowing the amount of SK is helpful, but it seems pretty likely based on the KP lately that it's either 1 or 0. And it's not so pertinent yet to need to know how many there are as opposed to how accurate our lynches are. | ||
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On February 02 2011 12:13 GMarshal wrote: Did you have to reveal that kitaman is a Medic? That puts him at risk, although if you are telling the truth we have to hang Lunar. kita is dead so.... also this seems to make sense look at the last clue You'd better watch out! I immediately headed back to the camp in order to find help. I grabbed the first person I saw, Deconduo and asked him to help me remove ilovejohn’s body. Deconduo didn’t help me. As soon as he realized that I wanted him to go inside, he fled. He didn’t get two steps before I killed him. Serves him right. There may be dogs about ---------------------------------------------- and then from lunars profile "Crazy. Karma is a b****. Gets you every time. It's not good to wish bad on anybody. God sees everything!" finally something solid to go on. | ||
Divinek
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He has so many posts to go through oh my god | ||
Divinek
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On February 02 2011 13:03 Jackal58 wrote: Why not? It's a second lynch without a lynch. Not like we can be any more fucked up than we've been. are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified | ||
Divinek
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having TWO kp per cycle is not as beneficial to town, because we have less information. As you can tell thus far our kill selections have been off the mark. The longer the game goes on the more info we get (clues + analysis) so the fewer kills the better. THUS only mafia would want to keep an SK alive to limit the amount of info town can get from clues (as some clues go to sk) and just plain THE GAME ENDS SOONER | ||
Divinek
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On February 02 2011 13:13 GMarshal wrote: I dont think you get it we aren't offering LunarDestiny a choice between serving town or some better deal, if lunar deviates at all from the towns instructions (which I think we should determine by majority vote) he hangs, I dont see where the disadvantage to giving town a second KP is. what, he's going to hang eventually anyways if he listens to you, because he confirms himself as the SK if he does. (or the other SK listens just to implicate him), or he could not listen to you and kill other people making it look like he's not the SK there's so much wifom i dont see how you can think he'd want to listen to us if he was SK. If he's been found out like this he's going to die eventually, his best bet is obviously to deny all claims and play it off like he's NOT the sk. | ||
Divinek
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On February 02 2011 13:23 GMarshal wrote: Sure the game ends sooner,but now we dont have to ask vigis to hit inactives we can direct which inactives get hit by our SK and then focus the lynch on the scummiest target around, if we decide for some reason that we are going through people to fast we lynch lunar. I dont see what your issue with this plan is he has absolutely no reason to listen to us Assume he goes okay guys i am dah sk. IF he listens we know it's him and he dies, if he does not listen he dies. HE CANNOT WIN with either of these conditions (besides all previously stated wifom) So his best bet is to deny all claims against him obviously. | ||
Divinek
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On February 02 2011 13:50 Jackal58 wrote: This is a scum deviation of town interest. FoS right back at you. have you read anything ive said? You just say something without explaining any reasoning behind it. That is a mafia way of posting to avoid slip ups because their reasoning is different naturally. | ||
Divinek
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On February 02 2011 14:14 GMarshal wrote: I'm going to throw this out there, since this a clue based analysis game, its quite possible that there are no dts much like in the minimafia game, All of these roles will appear in this game in some capacity, and there will be no roles that aren't on this list. I think that means there has to be at least one of each role in the game. The in some capacity thing confuses me, but im pretty sure all of the roles have to appear. | ||
Divinek
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On February 02 2011 15:32 Kavdragon wrote: Right now that's what makes logical sense to me. I'm not totally set in my thinking, explain to me why it would be better? Where is my logic wrong? People are saying that it's scummy play, but from what I've seen this would be pretty standard, right? Here: let me break down my logic: Player A accuses Player B of being scum through DT check. This is a simple trade. 1-1. Lynch one to figure out if one is lying. Normal play, right? Now, who do you lynch? The person who is LESS valuable to the town. (This is the same logic that they used when a DT accused Ace in mafia III) I hope this is pretty clear to this point. Please, If you have a problem with this logic let me know. It's fairly common town play from what I understand. Now the tricky part with this specific case is deciding who is more valuable. Lunar, or Bum. I make the case that Lunar is the more valuable player. He has been more actively involved with the town in both clue, and behavioral analysis than Bum has been. Now, you might say that Bum is a DT, therefore he is more helpful than LD. I disagree here, because he will VERY likely be dead tomorrow. (If he's telling the truth, we lost a medic already, so stacking hits will kill him unless this game has three Medics, and I don't think that's likely). The mafia will try to push for my lynch, so I'm trying to be as open as I can about what I say. Please point out what is wrong with my reasoning, and don't just dismiss it because it involves lynching a potential DT. mmmm i think a DT's value goes up a little bit in a non flip game. Im really confused why you're trying to defend a checked SK over a DT. Sure an sk can help town out, but at this point he has been identified, he has no more need to help town because he will surely die. Well that's not true he could some how not die if town listens to retarded suggestions like keeping him alive. Your reasoning really has started to sway to making less sense, and it is of course entirely possible that you could be mafia. I don't care overly much to entertain the idea one way or another, but I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. Why would anyone else possibly finger him? Sure bum could be mafia, but even if bum was I still think lunar would be SK regardless because a mafia coming out like this would still be fairly sure of an SK. But I think it's much much more likely that bum really is a DT and lunar is almost certainly an SK. If you are scum, and you do a census tonight you could simply lie to us about the SK number and then we end up lynching our DT the next day. etc etc | ||
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On February 03 2011 02:45 Kavdragon wrote: I explained why actually being a DT is not actually helpful to the town at this point. Mafia can, and likely will kill him before he can get another check in. I specifically asked that my bad logic be pointed out, not generally lumped up. Be specific. Any scum can generalize and give good general advice to the town. Show me where my logic breaks down. Also, why the sudden flurry of activity? You've been very inactive up till now. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, I hope it continues, but why now? (More importantly, why not before?) You're right. But it is entirely within the realm of possibility that we have more than one medic, so bum is not guaranteed to die tonight, unless mafia wish to stack on him. I'm more active now because my exams are over lol, and people wanting to keep an SK alive makes me rage. At least their logic behind it does, so i must post my raaaaaaage. | ||
Divinek
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On February 03 2011 14:05 Kavdragon wrote: What? NO. This is Basic third party strategy! The SK wants to keep both sides balaced! Who's ahead in this game? Mafia. Who would the SK want to kill? Mafia. Who would want the SK dead? Mafia. The only time the mafia want the SK is when the town is rolling the mafia, and this is clearly not that case. This is true if the SK is UNKNOWN. But once he's out there the mafia wants to keep him alive, because he's alot more likely to hit town than mafia, because town often mis lynch all the time. So the SK co-operating with town in an ideal situation would only end the game sooner because you are killing people fast with LESS information. (besides at this point in the game there still seem to be alot more townies alive than mafia so he wants to kill townies till the numbers get closer i would think) Also, if the sk is discovered he does not GIVE A FUCK. He is fucked, he has to deny all accusations and not listen to people or it makes him look like what he is, a dead man. | ||
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On February 04 2011 07:45 Coagulation wrote: You need to change your vote. Or do you have a problem with lynching scum maybe? im more confident that lunar is SK than either of these people are scum. I believe in standing by my vote and not sheeping like everyone else. I think killing SK is priority over killing people faster, they do seem likely scum, but it's more like that ones scum and one is not or something and id rather not kill one townie sooner. | ||
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On February 04 2011 08:02 Coagulation wrote: jesus christ divinek we got fucking evidence that bum is scum and your gonna ignore it saying you "dont wanna be a sheep" What the fuck is wrong with you. You have got to be kidding what evidence do you have? I might have missed it, all i read over the thread were people saying he's scum and there was an analysis posted and it was alright, but not nearly as convincing as 100% sk. | ||
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oh rofl, well if that's convincing evidence then sure ill take 99% scum over 100% sk seems good enough to me | ||
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On February 05 2011 06:06 Foolishness wrote: Don't kill yourself dude. That's just bad sportsmanship really (even given your situation). It's also extremely unfair for the mafia in this game who are still trying to win. If you want a better reason, if I was mafia in this game, I would argue that you killing yourself violates your "play to win" condition, and that you should be banned for it. We'd have to ask Qatol the lawyer to interpret this law which is probably a path you don't want to go down =D confirming that he is SK violates his win condition, and listening to people to confirm his role violates his win condition as well. It's pretty much a horrible situation for adhering to that rule | ||
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On February 08 2011 01:20 GMarshal wrote: Ok, I'm not putting my vote behind anyone to settle a stupid squable that is most likely two townies tunneling, instead what do you guys think of Kav's analysis of Impervious? That at least has much more to go on then 1 clue sort of matches and includes a behavioral analysis. Also Divinek care to explain your freak out at the LD situation which jackal has so kindly pointed out? i thought jackal actually analyzed something instead of pointing shit out lol. But I just didn't trust the SK, you guys thought we could and that he would listen to us and this was likely but he had no reason to listen to us, he was going to die either way. I'm glad your trust in him prevailed, but when I see glaring certainties to me I sort of tunnel lol. And you had clues pointing to scum that were fairly certain but I am always a fan of going for the sure thing, in hind sight obviously hitting two mafia and getting no townies killed was amazing, but any other scenario might have ended badly. But a one for one trade would have been okay too but then we'd still have had to waste a lynch regardless. I was freaking out cause I was preparing for worst case scenario while others were expecting the best, their optimistic bias payed off and I'm glad for it. :D | ||
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On February 08 2011 04:43 Jackal58 wrote: Cubed is simply the clues. Movie scene with an explanation. Followed by why the explanation was given. I've already pointed those out. If we're playing a game with clues I have to believe the clues carry more weight than analysis. This is rapidly becoming paralysis by analysis. Divinek's posts I did comment. 1 comment covers them all. He went apeshit for no real reason. i went ape shit because i standing up for what i believe in and people pay you more attention when you get maaaaaaaad! And i thought everyone else was being crazy | ||
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My case on kenpachi: WHAT CASE HE DOESN’T SAY ANYTHING. But actually lets look at some of his posts, as kav points out its silly to analyze every single post, but I will include the most recent of his posts here, or at least something like the later half. I do believe he started this game out with a few opinions and two liner posts that tried to share his perspective on things. But I’m looking at the most recent half of his posts or so, if someone wants to go farther back that’s fine or wants me to actually do the other half then I can, but just see what’s here first. Questions, who thinks asking questions can be useful? Everyone should, but it’s what questions you ask and how you ask them that’s important, and if you’re only asking questions you’re not taking a stance or giving an opinion, you’re not really be pro town, lets try and see how many questions kenpachi has (im gonna leave out quotes unless the post is actually MUTLI LINED, which most of his are one liners). I feel the most effective use of questions is to ask one of someone and then give an explanation why the must answer these questions, or how these questions are really beneficial to town etc, unless it’s implicit to the question otherwise this has always seemed like a very scummy tactic ( I know I used it in my nooby days when I first started out) Questions: He asks 3 separate questions of us! + Show Spoiler + wait is this sarcasm "suspicious looking meat" is that no beneather? wait, WHAT? Summary posts are also kind of helpful/useful, but again they don’t put forth a lot right. I mean you’re repeating what others have said so you cant slip up, or get caught at anything. Rather mafia like behaviour if engaged in too much our without other useful posts. These can also be point out the obvious posts that don’t tell us anything he thinks really, just the facts etc. Summary posts: (again every line is an ENTIRE post, multi line posts are actually quoted) + Show Spoiler + also, Coag disappeared also as did kita the day before so yea.. dummy. read the day post So beneather killed Coag from the day post. noclue here. Second medic protect this guy. yea probably man. hey look. no steel shit in the day post. Yes gg nemesis Note all of those were entire posts, he did not add any really useful interpretations/analysis with his facts or summaries. Random posts that aren’t useful (if you think they are please let me know why!) + Show Spoiler + no im not Romanian no im baffled that LD wasnt responsible for killing beneather I cared. ;; Wiggles no. just no nononono nemeiss None of the three previous sections were analyzed because what is there to analyze lol? no opinions or content, it was just to give you a look at the empty crap he's been feeding us to feign activity Interesting posts to look at ALSOOOOOOOO, FoS on Barundar for just wanting to kill me. OMGUS kind of attitude, barundar has proved to be a pretty tactful dude, keeping his posts short and sweet but very useful. I suppose you could see this as him trying to throw some fire on barundar, but he doesn’t really do any work to try and push it or anything. There are no reasons to kill me. die. I think mega inactivity is a great reason to kill someone. Such a great defense of your position sir, you’ll need better than this to keep me off your tail! oh btw i asked for med protection on bum because i thought he was actually the DT. I voted him because his scum slip was confirmed This one I almost put under the summary/stating the obvious section lol. But it does have an opinion attached to it he just never explains why he thinks either of these things. No reason why he believes bum, and I guess he can plead the sheep card for following the confirmed scum slip, throw his vote on the wagon and no one complains you lie~ Who what when where why? THIS WAS AN EXCELLENT POST OF BARUNDARS THAT NEVER GOT FOLLOWED UP ON WAT INDEED. Kenpachi has been skating by on the radar for far too long now, this post I found from barunar was rather compelling, especially since nemesis came back town from the census I do believe. My verdict? Kenpachi is a heavy lurker, is he mafia? I have no reason to believe otherwise | ||
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On February 09 2011 12:53 Kavdragon wrote: Oh, and on the topic of Divinek, I'm willing to bet that his name comes from the song "The divine suicide of K" off the album Kezia. Kezia being the album that he uses for his profile pic. I've searched around on wikipedia, but haven't found much. That being said, I'm not the best at seeing the connections in clues (see: beneather's "stary night" clue), so someone else might want to look into this. That is exactly where I get my name from! I find it funny when people read it as Div-in-ek instead of divine k, but i cant blame them it does read as a full word. | ||
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On February 10 2011 08:32 Kavdragon wrote: Alright, well I have to go soon, so I'll be offline till about an hour before the lynch. IF YOU THINK IT'S TOO LATE TO SWITCH THE VOTE, IGNORE THE REST OF THIS. This is what I'm thinking. We can afford a mis-lynch or two. The best place to hid as mafia is among those who do not give opinions, or suspicions. Those people are the hardest to analyze, so let's get rid of them to make sure the mafia aren't hiding among them. Zerroth and Divinek are the two main ones that come to mind. While it would be nice to lynch scum today, it will be safer in the long run if we protect ourselves against this hazard. I was planning on posting this later, so it's not totally done, but here's what i have on DivineK so far: + Show Spoiler + Divinek hasn't posted very much, so I there isn't a lot to pull from. I searched for contradictions within his posting and came up with a few, detailed below. + Show Spoiler [Post analysis] + + Show Spoiler [Bad Idea/first post] + On January 24 2011 07:48 Divinek wrote: Trading damn near anything is worth it for a scum player in this game imo. Lol, you cearly don't realize how important the census is for verifying lynch. A veteran player like yourself should have realized just how useful that ability would be ina game with no flip. + Show Spoiler [Self discribed Scum-slip] + On January 28 2011 17:42 Divinek wrote: if i post the list that devoids my entire point of the list right now. It's not like i make crazy spreadsheets or anything like some people, i justttt remember I think RoL is just another dude coasting along, hell he's probably even a blue but I dont really see him as too mafia like atm. On January 28 2011 15:50 Divinek wrote: ehh while I'm not feeling the whole jump on RoL thing either I feel you clear him too easily based on almost leading yourself into passivity. I'm not sure the implications of decisions like this, but we can't really be waiting for people to 'slip up' or make obvious contradictions, because experienced players like him are far less likely to do something so blatant to everyone else. Sure he could define his meta and play like it but that's.... so easy isnt it? I mean there's no hard evidence against him, but there's no hard evidence for him. ... On January 28 2011 17:11 Divinek wrote: I'm confused as to why you label him as a townie then you say we shouldn't wait to lynch him. Was that a scum slip? That was a scum slip. + Show Spoiler [SK Lynch Argument] + On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote: are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified On February 02 2011 13:15 Divinek wrote: what, he's going to hang eventually anyways if he listens to you, because he confirms himself as the SK if he does. (or the other SK listens just to implicate him), or he could not listen to you and kill other people making it look like he's not the SK there's so much wifom i dont see how you can think he'd want to listen to us if he was SK. If he's been found out like this he's going to die eventually, his best bet is obviously to deny all claims and play it off like he's NOT the sk. On February 02 2011 18:51 Divinek wrote: I am very convinced that lunar is actually the SK and that he needs to die. It just makes sense from many past sk's that ive seen, so pro town you couldnt possibly think they're not. You're an experienced player. Your first game was actually the same game that Bumatlarge first played in. You said that a revealed SK would never bargain with town? It's happened in every single game I've played that had an SK. You knew better than that: LunarDestiny played with you in Insane Mafia, as a third party, and in a similar no-win position. What did he do? He went ape crazy and killed a bunch of mafia. You said that you are basing your position on past SKs but never mentioned Insane. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. He is the balancer. Whether SK is revealed or not is totally irrelevant to their win condition. It makes it much harder, but not impossible. SK has helped town several times before after being revealed, and hey look. It happened again. I will state it again. Whoever is ahead wants to kill the SK. The mafia were in the lead at that point, so they would want the SK dead. After the lynch/SK/Modkill brought their numbers down to two, town was ahead, so we lynched the SK. It was after Mafia lost three people that Foolishness got on and posted this: On February 05 2011 06:06 Foolishness wrote: If I was mafia in this game, I would argue that you killing yourself violates your "play to win" condition, and that you should be banned for it. Soon after Divinek was kind enough to provide us with this post. [B]On February 05 2011 09:10 Divinek wrote: confirming that he is SK violates his win condition, and listening to people to confirm his role violates his win condition as well. It's pretty much a horrible situation for adhering to that rule This whole argument is bad, and bad in a way that benefits the mafia. It doesn't make much sense from the perspective of a townie, but it makes perfect sense from the perspective of Mafia However, contradictions or scummy SK plans aren't the only thing i found suspicious about Divinek. It's when and what his posts are about. + Show Spoiler [Behavioral Analysis] + First off, when I was browsing through Divinek's posts, I found an interesting similarity between Haunted Mafia and Mafia XXXVI: + Show Spoiler [Post comparison with known mafia/town…] + Divinek has been inactive. I don't think there's any arguing that point. In a thead of over 2000 posts, he has 38, roughly 1/50th of the posts. He posted very little at the beginning of the game, posted a bunch about the SK, and then got rather quite again, though, not as quite as before. I'd like to compare his posting from Haunted mafia (Vampire), Team Meley Mini mafia (townie) and this mafia (Mafia?). (Note, he was subbed in, so his first real post was 744.) Notice the similarities? He more or less dissapears after a "Hi" post in the beginning, then lurks, popping up and posts a couple of posts, then dissapears again for a long time in both Haunted and this Mafia. In the Team Meley, he was much more active, and didn't disappear after his first couple of posts. This is similar to mafia play I've seen before where they say hi, then disappear for a while, while they get in touch with their scum buddies. no opinions or suspicions did you not read my case on kenpachi? Or do you trust him because he's in your circle? | ||
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and then i said we shouldnt wait, then i ask why someone said we should wait, why would that be a scum slip. It's not even a contradiction lol, it's the same stance in both posts there's just a negative infront of the word wait because im asking about another persons stance. I always think the SK is bad because he wants to kill everyone, who the fuck cares if he is a game balancer. If he is KNOWN there is no reason to trust anything about him, he knows he has lost and is at this point capable of anything, i dont care if that's how it has ever played out that's just how it is. I would play SK that way for the lolz and there's no reason stopping anyone from doing this so your whole rationale behind my stance on the SK is pointless. It would be fine if he wasn't known but once he's confirmed every argument about what he does is pointless because he is a dead man also yeah im inactive now cause i have to deal with school, it doesnt matter what my alignment is i simply dont have time. It cant be hard to find recent games where im town and dont post much, given i probably die pretty early lol | ||
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On February 10 2011 09:22 Kenpachi wrote: and what case? that huge post i had that says your an inactive waste of life that has been contributing nothing to town at all. You dont have opinions are criticisms much like kav said we should look out for, you've been a rock posting one liners and no ones been questioning it and it's annoying me to death | ||
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On February 11 2011 12:18 LSB wrote: Mafia sniped both DTs early. Which actually was really nice. Congrats on the first real town victory in a long time! And good to know that the clues barely helped you. real town victory? -_- was fun none the less! | ||
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On February 11 2011 13:13 Node wrote: I can understand the motive for bum's plan, but I'm not sure why mafia felt it was necessary. Town was in the shitter at that point. Except for a missed hit or two, mafia was playing a perfect game, and the only person to come under any decent suspicion was Beneather -- and even that was being redirected on to Jackal. I believe that the mafia's house of cards was bound to come tumbling down regardless of moderation mistakes. I mean, Kav had already figured it out completely and only got confirmation with the roleblock scandal. Had he, say, checked the number of DTs that night (part of what census was intended for was to make roleclaiming a bit more risky), the same outcome would have taken place. Had mafia continued as they had been, they would have probably had it in the bag. With the exception of the mason circle, town was completely tearing itself apart. Also, I'm curious what people's thoughts are on the census ability. Is it too powerful? A nice way to combat the no-flip mechanic? Not good enough? Destroys the point of the format? I'm also glad that the mayor publicly picking his own bodyguards worked out pretty well in the long run. I was worried that it wouldn't hit that nice balance of risk-reward for both the town and the mafia. Even though one of the bodyguards was mafia, which many people thought was the "worst-case scenario", the mayor's life wasn't threatened until the endgame. It's something that I think would be interesting to toy with in other formats. shoulda coulda woulda, we'll never know. All I can say was that the mod thing sucked and I didn't want to play after it but oh well. The main reason i wanted it done is because this game was incredibly fucking boring lol, rather go down in some style and pzazz then win and be like yay we win how every other mafia team wins by doing nothing and letting town lynch themselves. Sure we could have just passively built a case against LD or something but that's boring, it's not like we get money for winning these games the hosting for this game was rather well done though outside of random silly things, no super delayed posts and they were all of fun quality. Cheers | ||
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On February 11 2011 14:15 bumatlarge wrote: But really I should stop trying to be too pro-active as mafia, it never helps us... but it's more fun. I simply did the plan, because I didn't want to win by doing nothing. Even if it's why we lost, i don't really regret it, it was more exciting then sitting their watching town go at each other's throat over clues while idly defending myself from kav. . yeah if you cant play for fun then why play at all bro dog. Also I need to start playing like this more as town so I can cite the games for when I'm lazy as mafia and people like foolishness can't sniff me out | ||
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On February 12 2011 00:50 BrownBear wrote: bum - the instant I stopped believing you was when Kav revealed himself to be medic to me and I thought "hold on a second, 3 medics?" So you would have been screwed either way, it just would have taken slightly longer. Also, I still stand by my decision to want to lynch LD first over bum - the reason being lowered KP is more important than killing 1 mafia. We had no guarantee LD would work for us (even though he ended up doing so), and killing him ensured he wouldn't kill town. Plus, we could have just said "vigis hit bum tonight" and one of them would have done so. Ah well, it all worked out in the end yeah I'll never stop hitting myself in the head as an objective bystander thinking why a town would trust an SK with nothing to lose | ||
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On February 12 2011 02:45 Impervious wrote: Look at it from the SK view - he's dead either way. Ideally, he'll want to try to last as possible. Look at his 3 options: If he doesn't go for the night kill, he's dead that night. If he says he will go for the night kill, but doesn't, he's dead the next day, since the town can't trust him. If he does go for it, he may prove to be useful another night, and possibly another night, etc. It's a chance for him to stay alive. It's in his best interest to play along with the town. Unfortunately for him, he became more of a liability to the town during the next day, and, as such, he was done. there is no best interest, he is dead and nothing will change that. everything else is wifom you can go in circles about what he will and will not do but it is ultimately up to that person because nothing will affect the outcome of their win condition which is loseeeeee | ||
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also thanks very much for including all the post game info posts under important posts i hate when games dont do that and they need to be hunted for. | ||
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