EPTTL Mafia XXXVI - Page 87
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Impervious
Canada4198 Posts
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 03 2011 08:28 Kavdragon wrote: My Case for Bumatlarge v2.0 Contradictions, and Scum slips First off: He shows a lack of opinion as to which mayoral candidate is more scummy: RoL, or I. Entirely true. I don't think this move did anything but put more focus on me. I ended up not minding. Later: (After the vote) If bumatlarge thought that i was more scummy, why would he vote for me?This vote switch shows that he has no opinion about who looks scummier. This is common among mafia, as they know that people are innocent. They don't have to really think about who might be scum, so they don't form opinions about who is scummy or not. It's obvious I didn't trust either of you. I didn't think it was a question of if mafia has a mayor running, it was a question of who. I've explained this before. This is my first clue game, so I wasn't sure how much emphasis could be placed on them. This slipped by me, but since then, I have found Vet's condeming day one clues, I caught it on a re-read. Bum has been around for a long time, so he should know, and does knows better than to rely/put emphasis day one clues. Don't agree? See what the vets say. Bum is an experianced player, has played with these veterans many times, and has certainly heard these arguments before: Ace Ace BloodyC0bbler Ver Ver Of course I was willing to let ON die instead of myself. He could have had no clues on him, and known he was town, and I'd still rather him then a DT. As for clues, they give me something to work with. I don't think I've ever made them my premier point in my analyses or lynch reasons. Never played with Ver I think, Id like to read into that game. This is another thing that struck me as scummy, but I left alone because I figured bum might have just not realized how bad of a plan it was. That was before I knew that bum has played around 15 games of mafia. He should have known, and did know how bad a plan it was. + Show Spoiler [Why it's a bad plan] + The goal is to vote someone into office that is both town alligned, and active. The process of running for mayor runs the candidates through a gauntlet of analysis, because they must submit plans, and opinions, and lots of other stuff that can be analysed. This process helps eliminate inactives, and makes it much, much harder to become mayor as scum. However, it's still possible for an talented and active scum to make it through the process without being suspected by most. With the help of the mafia votes behind him, it's possible for him to become mayor. RNG'ing the mayor has one very good benefit: It cannot be influenced by the mafia. Even vet's have said that it can be useful because of that. The obvious downside is that it's still quite possible to get a scum mayor, and it's also easy to get an inactive mayor. The problem was with the way that Bum set it up: the mafia could still influence the not so random RNG, eliminateing the main benefit of RNG. In addition, he set a deadline for the RNG process that was the same time that the votes were due, meaning that there would be no time at all to switch votes to the chossen person. The plan was also started with only 1.5 hrs till the deadline, and if it had gone through, would have caused a lot of confusion that would have allowed mafia to switch votes at the last second, and get away with it not being noticed. I've already explained this as well. After I read into it, I can't check mayor (which some people are just figuring out) and he controls the death information. I did a good job of bringing attention to it, but I did it too late. I would do it again, but with more time available. I obviously overestimated the activity of town. Everyone has schedules and they can't all be present during the lynch. You call the set-up bad, but only point out the time constraint. If you are really calling me scummy because you think I was trying to sway 20 votes within a few hours, you would be giving me to much credit. I think you should reconsider what's possible within the realm of mafia. Admits that the plan was a bad idea, but says that it it might have worked with a time extension. He didn't ask for a time extension when he brought the plan forward, and didn't ask for it till nearly the end of the day. Why not? Explained this already. I assumed everyone would be around at this time, which was stupid. I thought a time extension would be easy to get, but everyone was on a schedule so I couldn't. You're asking why I didn't ask for it immediately? I didn't think that far ahead. Even he agrees that his play durring that time was scummy. Scummy play from a veteran mafia player? He should know better. He does know better. It's scummy in a painfully obvious way. From what I've seen in this game, people would take it the wrong way. You apparently are. This analysis never came. I would need a good 6 hours to give a similar post on you. I didn't have the time or the willpower. I don't get selective when I take people's posts, so you could imagine what I would have to do with yours. If I make an analysis, I do want to take in their good points as I did with Cube. I don't think your method is better. The only anlyses he has done thus far are on RoL (deemed scum), Nemesis and even here he contradicts himself: He says that Nemesis is an SK, or Mafia in the analysis, but a page or two later, he is "Fairly certain that Nemesis is not Mafia". That's not a quick turn around, that's a contradiction. Oh wow. I don't have an explanation for this. I thought I labelled nemesis as SK and possible town. I guess I did contradict myself or typed that out wrong. My fault. This post is MONEY. He has put the emphasis of his work on clues up to, and past this point. Bum stated several times that he would go to work on clues, and sometimes follow it up with analysis. He CLEARLY puts the emphasis on CLUES. But here he's stating that he believes that "CLUES ARE LAST" in order of importance! He also states that clues don't lead to the profile, profiles lead to the clues. Sound familiar? That's because RoL said the exacte opposite! Cool story bro. I didn't think I was putting emphasis on clues before... I said I would look into clues and then later on in the game I would focus on analysis. Since people have been giving an abundant amount of clue findings, I didn't really go into it. In fact, I think besides RoL, I haven't gone into clues this game. And I said "Profiling" not "Players" there is a huge difference. I said a mafia would run for mayor. That's the general profile. Not a person's TL profile. I don't take someone's profile and look through all the clues to see what matches. Conclusion: Bumatlarge is a Scum at large, and is fake claiming DT to screw the town over. This is my analysis of Bum the Scum, without taking the DT claim into account. This post got too long, so I will post my analysis of his DT claim next. Believe me, it doesn't get any better. You've said this before, but I think you stopped FoSing me for some reason. I'm not sure if I am the inconsistent one among us. I'd love to see what you have to say about me being a DT. LD is 100% Serial Killer, and I don't understand you trying to defend him as town or mafia. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On February 03 2011 09:30 Kavdragon wrote: The second half of my analysis, as promised: + Show Spoiler [A few edits to the first half  + A few minor edits and clarifications that I missed on my read throughs: On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote: lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go. If you kill me, I can guarantee you are red. If you are town, please start thinking about where I am coming from with this. Roughly 24 hours ago, I thought there were 4 candidates. It would be pointless to bring it up. Now there have been two for nearly all of the vote process, I am a little worried. I thought maybe I could get an extension on the time to give this a little more thought and buy that last guy some time. The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation, but maybe with 12 more hours we could get another candidate, and give people more of a choice. I was originally using this to show bad logic, but meant to take it out becaues it's a bad example, and was probably just an emotion based mistake. Within my spoiler on why Bum's plan was bad, I stated that he started it with only 1.5 hours to go. That was a mistake on my part, there were actaully more like 3 hours to go, but doesn't change any of my analysis of the situation. According to this, he KNEW that Benneather was town on day two. So i went back an checked his posts. Yes, he defends Beneather lightly by compareing him to Jackal, but really he's just dragging Beneather into the spotlight at that point. Why draw attention to him if he's clean, and we arn't considering his lynch for the time being? Then he posts this: So you suggested that we lynch someone who you knew to be town? No veteran player would do something like that. Hell, most new players would know not to do that. This made me look at the possible reasons for a mafia claiming this: Claiming that Kita is Medic: No real reason other than he's dead, and can't be checked. Beneather as Townie: This potentially clears the name of the most suspected scum. LD as SK: This makes the most sense as Mafia, and this is one of the first things that made me question Bum. The one things that has stuck with me out of all the advice I've read from the pros, is that good scum tells are the things that make sense from a mafia perspective, but not from a town perspective. Beneather wasn't going to be lynched, Kita was dead, so the only reason to claim at this point is to call out LD: If LD is SK, he wants to appear as pro-town, and he wants to kill people who are on the winning side. In this case, the Mafia are winning, so he would want to kill them. As long as his cover isn't blown, this is the logical course of action. Once the cover has been blown, he has much less reason to help the town. (It's possible for him to win, but extremely unlikely, so who knows how he might act? ) So why would an experianced townie, someone who must have realized this, call him out? this could only halt or hurt his pro-town, helpful play. In short, it DOESN"T MAKE SENSE FOR A TOWNIE TO DO THIS. If you were mafia, the town is looking pretty screwed, and the SK will have no choice but to start helping the town if they weren't before. So revealing Lunar as SK makes sense. People say that mafia can't know because all hits are accounted for. This isn't true. The town asked the vig to hit D3, and D3 died that night. We assumed it was the mafia, but there was no logical reason for them to hit D3, it would be much better to hit the vocal persons in the town: Lunar and Me. So they hit lunar, and GMarshal that night. Lunar didn't need to claim the hit, because a vig covered for him. Think about it, why would the mafia hit D3? Yeah, he had a list, but he wasn't a big voice in the town, and his death only drew attention to that list. It makes no sense for the mafia to hit D3. It makes perfect sense for a Vig to hit D3. Conclusion, we have our missing hit, and the mafia know who the SK is. It has already been pointed out that he reported Beneather as Vanilla Townie. Why would you translate Townie Bodyguard in to Vanilla Townie? Slip up? It seems odd at the least. If necessary I can back this up with Blue Based information, but I'd rather not give out any information about blues that I don't need to. I will say that I'm in the Mason circle though. Those were the dots I've been trying to connect all day. Thank you. If this is indeed the case is there no way to use LD's nk? | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 03 2011 09:30 Kavdragon wrote: The second half of my analysis, as promised: + Show Spoiler [A few edits to the first half + A few minor edits and clarifications that I missed on my read throughs: On January 26 2011 11:00 bumatlarge wrote: lol...? Do you realize how strong mayor is? Do you honestly think scum wouldn't try to have someone run? If I was in your shoes as town, RoL would be pretty fishing looking. And you aren't, which says something about you. Now I really hope you don't get mayor if this is actually how you think things through. Killing the only person who says you might be red is not the way to go. If you kill me, I can guarantee you are red. If you are town, please start thinking about where I am coming from with this. Roughly 24 hours ago, I thought there were 4 candidates. It would be pointless to bring it up. Now there have been two for nearly all of the vote process, I am a little worried. I thought maybe I could get an extension on the time to give this a little more thought and buy that last guy some time. The RNG plan isn't too great with only a few hours left and it was mostly just a thought in response to the situation, but maybe with 12 more hours we could get another candidate, and give people more of a choice. I was originally using this to show bad logic, but meant to take it out becaues it's a bad example, and was probably just an emotion based mistake. Within my spoiler on why Bum's plan was bad, I stated that he started it with only 1.5 hours to go. That was a mistake on my part, there were actaully more like 3 hours to go, but doesn't change any of my analysis of the situation. According to this, he KNEW that Benneather was town on day two. So i went back an checked his posts. Yes, he defends Beneather lightly by compareing him to Jackal, but really he's just dragging Beneather into the spotlight at that point. Why draw attention to him if he's clean, and we arn't considering his lynch for the time being? Then he posts this: So you suggested that we lynch someone who you knew to be town? No veteran player would do something like that. Hell, most new players would know not to do that. Wow, Kav you are really putting your rep on the line for this one. Someone suggests hitting you with a vig to check BGs. If yous suspect both BGs that much, then a much cleaner solution is lynching one of them and seeing if mafia is reduced after. I didn't even mention beneather there. This made me look at the possible reasons for a mafia claiming this: Claiming that Kita is Medic: No real reason other than he's dead, and can't be checked. Beneather as Townie: This potentially clears the name of the most suspected scum. LD as SK: This makes the most sense as Mafia, and this is one of the first things that made me question Bum. The one things that has stuck with me out of all the advice I've read from the pros, is that good scum tells are the things that make sense from a mafia perspective, but not from a town perspective. Beneather wasn't going to be lynched, Kita was dead, so the only reason to claim at this point is to call out LD: If LD is SK, he wants to appear as pro-town, and he wants to kill people who are on the winning side. In this case, the Mafia are winning, so he would want to kill them. As long as his cover isn't blown, this is the logical course of action. Once the cover has been blown, he has much less reason to help the town. (It's possible for him to win, but extremely unlikely, so who knows how he might act? ) So why would an experianced townie, someone who must have realized this, call him out? this could only halt or hurt his pro-town, helpful play. In short, it DOESN"T MAKE SENSE FOR A TOWNIE TO DO THIS. To get rid of KP? Yes there is sense in a townie doing this, stop being shortsighted. This extends lylo another day at least, maybe more. Lunar could scumhunt all he wants, but he isn't anymore certain to hit a scum then any vig. Your processing this situation completely wrong. Blatantly ignoring how KP and the days will work from here on out, is not what you want to be doing. KEEPING SK ALIVE IS WHAT MAFIA WANTS. If SK can find scum, then so can a vig. If you were mafia, the town is looking pretty screwed, and the SK will have no choice but to start helping the town if they weren't before. So revealing Lunar as SK makes sense. People say that mafia can't know because all hits are accounted for. This isn't true. The town asked the vig to hit D3, and D3 died that night. We assumed it was the mafia, but there was no logical reason for them to hit D3, it would be much better to hit the vocal persons in the town: Lunar and Me. So they hit lunar, and GMarshal that night. Lunar didn't need to claim the hit, because a vig covered for him. Think about it, why would the mafia hit D3? Yeah, he had a list, but he wasn't a big voice in the town, and his death only drew attention to that list. It makes no sense for the mafia to hit D3. It makes perfect sense for a Vig to hit D3. Conclusion, we have our missing hit, and the mafia know who the SK is. Node clearly states that somebody did not send in their action for that night. The other man didn’t do anything. And because the mods frown on not submitting your night action, we’re giving you clues on him even though he didn’t kill anyone. The vig hit then? He needs to claim then. It has already been pointed out that he reported Beneather as Vanilla Townie. Why would you translate Townie Bodyguard in to Vanilla Townie? Slip up? It seems odd at the least. If necessary I can back this up with Blue Based information, but I'd rather not give out any information about blues that I don't need to. I will say that I'm in the Mason circle though. Well I'm glad you are in a circle that is sharing information with you. They are clearly very trusting and clever. If you know the vig, he should claim. If it's a DT with different information, then I net us an SK and a mafia. I don't lose in this situation. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
I'm also going to say that I'm not convinced that we should lynch Bum today. There are good arguments out there for lowering KP, so if the town needs to lower it, then they can lynch the Lunar. I would be against this if he's willing to cooperate. It makes more sense for mafia to make this high risk fake dt claim to kill a SK than an active townie. So while the possibility is there, it's not a very big one. So to reiterate: Bum is Scum, LD is probably SK. I'm not decided on which we should lynch. I haven't done the math yet, but if the town needs a few more days, then lynch LD. Otherwise, this game is about killing scum, not SK's. | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Kav obviously you and the mason group will have a whole lot of information more than the rest of the town, and while im fine with you not sharing anything, i want you to not turn this into a mason group deciding and a town following like sheeps. Hence i would like the discussion of what to do for the lynches to continue in the thread. The best choice of action is in my opinion to kill off lunar tonight to reduce kp. The only alternative would be to lynch a mafia now and give lunar orders on who to kill tonight. But this would require us to hear from lunar, and be certain of 2 mafia. Bum and beneather or what? Got a third suspect? Opinions from people? | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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zerroth
Canada173 Posts
On February 03 2011 13:08 GMarshal wrote: I vote we just lynch LD, he is the SK almost guaranteed and he dosn't seem that cooperative, hence he has to go. We also need to figure out the clues from today. Yeah thinking the same thing. Probably get rid of the most guaranteed lynch | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On February 03 2011 12:40 Barundar wrote: Interested in hearing from lunar now. I guess kav's insistence on a non claiming vig is explained now. That might just have tricked both me and the mafia. Kav obviously you and the mason group will have a whole lot of information more than the rest of the town, and while im fine with you not sharing anything, i want you to not turn this into a mason group deciding and a town following like sheeps. Hence i would like the discussion of what to do for the lynches to continue in the thread. The best choice of action is in my opinion to kill off lunar tonight to reduce kp. The only alternative would be to lynch a mafia now and give lunar orders on who to kill tonight. But this would require us to hear from lunar, and be certain of 2 mafia. Bum and beneather or what? Got a third suspect? Opinions from people? Firstly, I have to be honest: The evidence I have is not irrefutable. It only supports my findings. I say this so that when that information is revealed, (if it's revealed), you don't feel betrayed by me and the others in the circle. I absolutely agree with not letting the decision making process be left up to the circle. We are not infallible, and we cannot be absolutely sure about each other (other than the original mason). I tried to build my arguments off of public information to the best of my ability, and hopefully people can see that Bum is indeed Mafia. I see no reason to not include the town in any decisions, so I will keep the discussion out here. I agree with you that LD should be lynched tonight. Lowering KP will be good. It's important to note though, that if he is indeed SK, then this in NO WAY clears Bumatlarge. However, there's more than meets the eye with the "Should we lynch LD" debate. I've recently started looking into Insane Mafia, and LD was a third party in a position much like this, where the town was very far behind. His response was to kill mafia. This should have been pointed out by those who played in that game. FoS on those who let that sit, as it's important history that should have been mentioned. CubEdIn, you especially should have let us know about this instead of telling us that the SK would turn on Bum. You brought up PYP, why not Insane? There's no telling if he will do the same thing, as player's styles vary, and it was insane, so I'm still of the opinion that we should lynch him. But Insane should have been brought up. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On February 03 2011 09:59 bumatlarge wrote: If I make an analysis, I do want to take in their good points as I did with Cube. I don't think your method is better. Wrong, and you should know better. Mafia do good stuff all the time, and when they slip up, you have to be there to point out the slip. You don't spam the thead with the hundreds of good posts that someone has, you point out the parts that are bad. Similarly, you don't point out every little scummy thing that a person did, you only point out the important parts. As mafia, one of the tactics I picked up was analysing every post that someone made. This made the posts hoplessly long, and even if i analysed my scum buddy, no one could stand to read through it. You do NOT need to post everything in an analysis. Ver on Long Analyses Wow, Kav you are really putting your rep on the line for this one. Someone suggests hitting you with a vig to check BGs. If yous suspect both BGs that much, then a much cleaner solution is lynching one of them and seeing if mafia is reduced after. I didn't even mention beneather there. Um...Re read what you said. You said we should lynch the more "incriminated one" of the two Bodyguards. The "incriminated one" is obviously Beneather. I never said I suspect GMarshal, and I don't suspect him. KEEPING SK ALIVE IS WHAT MAFIA WANTS. What? NO. This is Basic third party strategy! The SK wants to keep both sides balaced! Who's ahead in this game? Mafia. Who would the SK want to kill? Mafia. Who would want the SK dead? Mafia. The only time the mafia want the SK is when the town is rolling the mafia, and this is clearly not that case. Node clearly states that somebody did not send in their action for that night. There were two confirmed hits that night. GMarshal, and D3. Vig hits D3, Mafia hit LD and GMarshal, SK is inactive. Make sense now? Again and again you make claims about things that are not true. Things that you should know better about. Maybe one of the was an honest mistake, but all of them? What are we supposed to think!? This is the obvious lynch for tomorrow. | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On February 03 2011 14:05 Kavdragon wrote: What? NO. This is Basic third party strategy! The SK wants to keep both sides balaced! Who's ahead in this game? Mafia. Who would the SK want to kill? Mafia. Who would want the SK dead? Mafia. The only time the mafia want the SK is when the town is rolling the mafia, and this is clearly not that case. This is true if the SK is UNKNOWN. But once he's out there the mafia wants to keep him alive, because he's alot more likely to hit town than mafia, because town often mis lynch all the time. So the SK co-operating with town in an ideal situation would only end the game sooner because you are killing people fast with LESS information. (besides at this point in the game there still seem to be alot more townies alive than mafia so he wants to kill townies till the numbers get closer i would think) Also, if the sk is discovered he does not GIVE A FUCK. He is fucked, he has to deny all accusations and not listen to people or it makes him look like what he is, a dead man. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
One thing that did pop out at me though, and I don't think it's been mentioned, are two possible clues referring to LunarDestiny, and both in the "serial killer" part of the post. And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on. Really fills my mind I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. How fitting. I immediately headed back to the camp in order to find help. I grabbed the first person I saw, Deconduo and asked him to help me remove ilovejohn’s body. Deconduo didn’t help me. As soon as he realized that I wanted him to go inside, he fled. He didn’t get two steps before I killed him. Serves him right. Now, from LD's profile: "Crazy. Karma is a b****. Gets you every time. It's not good to wish bad on anybody. God sees everything!" The part that interests me is "Karma is a b****. Gets you every time.". If you look up at the day 2 post quote, theAldo is watching as Meapak is killed, hiding in the shadows. Then the new killer comes out and slits his throat. But what really gets me, is that it says "no one was there to help him. How fitting.". Aldo sat and watched, doing nothing as Meapak was killed, and now he is murdered in turn, and there is no one to help him. What makes it stand out as a clue though is the "how fitting" tacked onto the end. Now, if you look at the day 4 post quote, the killer asks for help. Deconduo was open to helping until he realized he had to enter the poop-your-pants-it's-so-scary-cave. Then he tried to run and was struck down by the killer. And once again, something is added, this time a "Serves him right.". These both fit in with the quote about Karma and getting your just desserts. TheAldo didn't help Meapak, instead letting him die alone, and was then "fittingly" killed alone with no one to help him. Then, Deconduo wouldn't help move the body, he wouldn't do a favor, and so he gets killed too, but I guess Karma's a b****, what can you do? :p These two clues fit LD very closely. I'm going to see if I can find anything else in the day 3 post, or potentially day 1 as well, leaving this here for now. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On February 03 2011 11:03 Kavdragon wrote: Otherwise, this game is about killing scum, not SK's. This is the only thing I disagree with that you've said so far. In my opinion, this game is about lowering KP. The less KP there is = the fewer people die every night = the longer the game goes, and as town we want to drag the game out as long as possible. Everything else you've said has been very good, though. I still think we should lynch LD today, but you've convinced me about bum. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
[QUOTE]On February 03 2011 09:59 bumatlarge wrote: If I make an analysis, I do want to take in their good points as I did with Cube. I don't think your method is better.[/quote] Wrong, and you should know better. Mafia do good stuff all the time, and when they slip up, you have to be there to point out the slip. You don't spam the thead with the hundreds of good posts that someone has, you point out the parts that are bad. Similarly, you don't point out every little scummy thing that a person did, you only point out the important parts. As mafia, one of the tactics I picked up was analysing every post that someone made. This made the posts hoplessly long, and even if i analysed my scum buddy, no one could stand to read through it. You do NOT need to post everything in an analysis. [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=188179#7]Ver on Long Analyses[/url][/quote] Ok perhaps. I don't think making them longer is a scum tactic, if you let the person see the pattern the person getting analyzed is taking on. When threads get rather large, I'd like to keep at least all their posts easily referenced, so they and others can defend their points made. I feel like focusing on the slips is like focusing on an aspect of a clue. You can make something out of nothing. I'd rather take the post, suggest what I get out of it, and encourage the person reading it to see it either in the same light, or make them realize a varying opinion. I'd like to discuss that further after the game. [quote][quote]Wow, Kav you are really putting your rep on the line for this one. Someone suggests hitting you with a vig to check BGs. If yous suspect both BGs that much, then a much cleaner solution is lynching one of them and seeing if mafia is reduced after. I didn't even mention beneather there.[/quote] Um...Re read what you said. You said we should lynch the more "incriminated one" of the two Bodyguards. The "incriminated one" is obviously Beneather. I never said I suspect GMarshal, and I don't suspect him.[/quote] No, he was taking it hypothetically, if both BGs have FoS, that it seemed using a vig on mayor seemed reasonable. In that situation, I said that it would be better to lynch one of the bodyguards, instead. I was not suggesting to lynch beneather, but since the other BG was hit, and he was not, I do keep my eye on him. I checked him, he's town. He would have to be GF otherwise, which I wouldn't put him as a top candidate for that from what I've seen from his posts. [quote][quote]KEEPING SK ALIVE IS WHAT MAFIA WANTS. [/quote] What? NO. This is Basic third party strategy! The SK wants to keep both sides balaced! Who's ahead in this game? Mafia. Who would the SK want to kill? Mafia. Who would want the SK dead? Mafia. The only time the mafia want the SK is when the town is rolling the mafia, and this is clearly not that case.[/quote] 13 town and 5 mafia. Statistically, unless SK has good scumsense, he will probably not hit mafia. I am town, and I want him dead. I'm not going to go into detail about what he would and wouldn't do. Certain lylo extension versus Non-townie scumhunting abilities. It didn't take me long. [quote][quote]Node clearly states that somebody did not send in their action for that night.[/quote] There were two confirmed hits that night. GMarshal, and D3. Vig hits D3, Mafia hit LD and GMarshal, SK is inactive. Make sense now?[/quote] No it does not. Unless I missed a vig claim, this makes absolutely no sense. Was there something I am missing? I tend to do that so please tell em if I am just being retarded here. [quote]Again and again you make claims about things that are not true. Things that you should know better about. Maybe one of the was an honest mistake, but all of them? What are we supposed to think!? This is the obvious lynch for tomorrow.[/QUOTE] I'm not perfect, but there are some things you aren't clarifying to town. I think you of all people wouldn't assume we will follow you blindly. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 03 2011 14:05 Kavdragon wrote: Wrong, and you should know better. Mafia do good stuff all the time, and when they slip up, you have to be there to point out the slip. You don't spam the thead with the hundreds of good posts that someone has, you point out the parts that are bad. Similarly, you don't point out every little scummy thing that a person did, you only point out the important parts. As mafia, one of the tactics I picked up was analysing every post that someone made. This made the posts hoplessly long, and even if i analysed my scum buddy, no one could stand to read through it. You do NOT need to post everything in an analysis. Ver on Long Analyses Ok perhaps. I don't think making them longer is a scum tactic, if you let the person see the pattern the person getting analyzed is taking on. When threads get rather large, I'd like to keep at least all their posts easily referenced, so they and others can defend their points made. I feel like focusing on the slips is like focusing on an aspect of a clue. You can make something out of nothing. I'd rather take the post, suggest what I get out of it, and encourage the person reading it to see it either in the same light, or make them realize a varying opinion. I'd like to discuss that further after the game. Um...Re read what you said. You said we should lynch the more "incriminated one" of the two Bodyguards. The "incriminated one" is obviously Beneather. I never said I suspect GMarshal, and I don't suspect him. No, he was taking it hypothetically, if both BGs have FoS, that it seemed using a vig on mayor seemed reasonable. In that situation, I said that it would be better to lynch one of the bodyguards, instead. I was not suggesting to lynch beneather, but since the other BG was hit, and he was not, I do keep my eye on him. I checked him, he's town. He would have to be GF otherwise, which I wouldn't put him as a top candidate for that from what I've seen from his posts. What? NO. This is Basic third party strategy! The SK wants to keep both sides balaced! Who's ahead in this game? Mafia. Who would the SK want to kill? Mafia. Who would want the SK dead? Mafia. The only time the mafia want the SK is when the town is rolling the mafia, and this is clearly not that case. 13 town and 5 mafia. Statistically, unless SK has good scumsense, he will probably not hit mafia. I am town, and I want him dead. I'm not going to go into detail about what he would and wouldn't do. Certain lylo extension versus Non-townie scumhunting abilities. It didn't take me long. There were two confirmed hits that night. GMarshal, and D3. Vig hits D3, Mafia hit LD and GMarshal, SK is inactive. Make sense now? No it does not. Unless I missed a vig claim, this makes absolutely no sense. Was there something I am missing? I tend to do that so please tell em if I am just being retarded here. Again and again you make claims about things that are not true. Things that you should know better about. Maybe one of the was an honest mistake, but all of them? What are we supposed to think!? This is the obvious lynch for tomorrow. I'm not perfect, but there are some things you aren't clarifying to town. I think you of all people wouldn't assume we will follow you blindly. EBWOP -_- | ||
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Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On February 03 2011 14:57 Mr. Wiggles wrote: So I've been looking through the day posts and people's profiles a bit recently. There have been 4-6 mafia kills so far, so that means that there should be clues on the whole mafia team almost, or a couple of them twice. I haven't found too much for mafia yet, but I'm going to keep looking. (I'm tired, just did a whole bunch of algebra and physics homework :p). One thing that did pop out at me though, and I don't think it's been mentioned, are two possible clues referring to LunarDestiny, and both in the "serial killer" part of the post. Now, from LD's profile: The part that interests me is "Karma is a b****. Gets you every time.". If you look up at the day 2 post quote, theAldo is watching as Meapak is killed, hiding in the shadows. Then the new killer comes out and slits his throat. But what really gets me, is that it says "no one was there to help him. How fitting.". Aldo sat and watched, doing nothing as Meapak was killed, and now he is murdered in turn, and there is no one to help him. What makes it stand out as a clue though is the "how fitting" tacked onto the end. Now, if you look at the day 4 post quote, the killer asks for help. Deconduo was open to helping until he realized he had to enter the poop-your-pants-it's-so-scary-cave. Then he tried to run and was struck down by the killer. And once again, something is added, this time a "Serves him right.". These both fit in with the quote about Karma and getting your just desserts. TheAldo didn't help Meapak, instead letting him die alone, and was then "fittingly" killed alone with no one to help him. Then, Deconduo wouldn't help move the body, he wouldn't do a favor, and so he gets killed too, but I guess Karma's a b****, what can you do? :p These two clues fit LD very closely. I'm going to see if I can find anything else in the day 3 post, or potentially day 1 as well, leaving this here for now. Has already been pointed out by Divinek and myself. I'm very interested in you ignoring the whole Kav vs Bumatlarge debate completely, while making your first directly incriminating clue analysis in the game. You don't get any brownie points for it though, since mafia loves to find SK's. So what is your opinion of Bumatlarge? And what do you think of Kavdragon? Can you find clues pointing to them? | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
I like that you almost confirm that LD is a SK but at this point we were almost sure anyway, could you try to contribute something new? hopefully something that get us some scum (also there is a reference to moonlight in one of the day posts (day 1 or 2, not sure) which obviously ties in to LD.) | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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