+ Show Spoiler +On January 24 2011 04:37 CubEdIn wrote:Here's the thing though:
Show nested quote +
Bodyguard
You have been chosen by the mayor to protect their life at all costs. While you are alive, the mayor cannot be killed or roleblocked. [Mafia-aligned players chosen as bodyguards will not protect town-aligned mayors.
So if mayor WILL pick scum bodyguards, they just won't be much of a body-guard.
Sure it would reveal who they are if mayor turns up dead with no bodyguards dying pre-flop, but then again, it also gives a scum mayor great opportunities to:
a) pick townie bodyguards and then 2-3 days later start whining that they're not dying, therefore they must be scum
b) pick one townie, one scum, have their mafia buddies kill the townie and then ask for a medic to protect the other bodyguard
...etc.
So, the only awesome scenario is when mayor picks BOTH bodyguards scum. And the chances of that are somewhat non-existent, since if we knew who scum were, then we might as well lynch them, not place them as bodyguards for trolling purposes.
Admittedly, I do not have much experience playing in Bodyguard games with this rule, so I might be missing out on some alternatives.
Also, a note for the census ability:
I believe the order they should get information is:
1. Number of Mafia
2. Number of SKs
3. Number of Godfathers
Being the mayor, this information can/should be posted in the thread after each night, as I believe it is useful information for everyone, correct?
I can't really tell if number of godfathers is more/less important than number of mafia/sk. I am guessing less, since it's probably just 1/2 godfathers anyway.
4. Number of blues
After finding out the number of blues, only share with the PM circle if you have been recruited, as it will help keeping track of the blues and the possibly-fake blues.
I don't see why the entire town would need to know this, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
On January 24 2011 04:47 CubEdIn wrote:
P.S.:
Since it's the very start of the game, we cannot be sure of the alignment of anyone.
So, on the bodyguard selection issue, I would have to say that RnG-ing with the option of Veto would be my choice if I ran for mayor.
It would work like this, mayor randomly chooses two people (out of everyone, or specially selected groups, like say... everyone else who ran for mayor).
Post their name in the thread.
If said people do not wish to be BG, they can veto.
This will obviously put tremendous pressure on everyone who uses veto, but the reasons can be various:
a) You're a townie but too scared to be a target
b) You're a blue but your role is too important to risk being targeted early
c) You're a mafia and if you get picked the mayor is imba!
I know it sound scummy at first, but it can also gives town useful information.
Here is why:
a) A clever townie can say veto and then take a hit from Mafia because they think he is blue
b) A blue player can hide in BG because mafia thinks he is green
c) A mafia who has accepted being BG can easily be uncovered if he is role-checked (unless he is GF but in that case mayor will live for a long time anyway)
I'm just putting it out there, if you think this is too helpful for scum, then please try to come up with another solution that is not completely random and has a high chance of picking scum/non-blues as BG on day one.
On January 24 2011 05:15 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 05:07 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Actually, I just thought of this:
What if we chose the bodyguards based on volunteers?
This could protect our blues from dying, as they only have to not volunteer. I'm also sure we won't get 24 people volunteering, as most people have some self-interest or sense of self-preservation. This would be most useful if we wanted two greens to be bodyguards. Anyone who volunteers will be put under instant scrutiny, so this would discourage mafia. Also, mafia would not put more than one member into the volunteer pool, or else there would be a high chance of picking two mafia bodyguards, which isn't really good for mafia, no matter mayoral alignment. The only problem is if we get a mafia mayor, he would have two townies protecting him. This set-up would rely heavily on DTs, as they would need to check and somehow release the information about the bodyguards right away, so that we knew they were town. This would force mafia to have to waste hits on the greens, or else make it look too much like the mayor is mafia. The problem arise though, when the mafia just leave the bodyguards, who are town, to try to get us to lynch our own mayor.
What do you guys think?
I think that there are a few flaws with this:
- the best option for a townie mayor would be to have 2 mafia BGs (or at least one), but this setup will probably lead to him having 0 mafia BGs
- the town will see who doesn't volunteer, but so will the mafia, so from the left-overs, they can subtract themselves and have a pool of players, a good deal of which are probably blue
Either way, it's not a bad idea. I'm sure that no matter what we choose it will still have flaws in it. It'll be a matter of luck in the end imo.
On January 24 2011 08:53 CubEdIn wrote:
Just adding one thing: A lot of things may be worth sacrificing to kill a red, but the census ability is probably on the bottom of that list.
If the picks go wrong and mayor is dealt with during the first night, we will have absolutely 0 information from census. So the best scenario would be hope that one of the picks is a blue-vet. That way, it will take at least 3KPs to get to the mayor (assuming that the other BG is red).
And it's not really worth saying what we should risk sacrificing for a scum until we figure out a way to pick BGs. Because if we're gonna pick volunteers, I'm pretty sure neither will be a scum.
On January 24 2011 09:16 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 09:08 BrownBear wrote:
Actually, a thought provoking idea. Would it be worth it to have veterans claim, and select them as bodyguards? I'm not convinced that it would work that well, but I'd like to hear some debate on it.
Actually, our best best case scenario is to have the SK picked as a bodyguard...
I thought about that myself, but the main idea behind why vets are good is because mafia don't know that it takes two hits to kill them.
If mafia doesn't know what the BGs are, then they will probably have to stack hits on them anyway, assuming that they will be protected by a medic as well.
If they would know, then it's only a matter of distributing KPs.
Of course, medics will be able to protect, but do you really want the medics protecting just two targets for the game and have the rest of the town picked off?
Best case scenario? The SK and the GF both as bodyguards (with a blue DT mayor or something).
On January 24 2011 09:18 CubEdIn wrote:
Oh and as for the chances of getting a SK as bodyguard, are really low. I don't see how town could possibly try and get SK or reds as BGs, without RnG-ing.
Unless we try something like "we're picking volunteers" and then the mayor picks two random people out of those who did not volunteer. Which would have a higher chance of getting red/sk, but would make the rest of the town go WTF /hate.
If I manage to come up with a good enough plan to do that I'll run for mayor myself lol.
On January 25 2011 07:10 CubEdIn wrote:
I'm gonna vote for Kav, as a placeholder mostly, because I wanna sleep now and I'm not sure if I'll be back in time.
But I would like to hear more about the picking of Bodyguards, because it can possibly make or break this game. From everyone, not just mayor candidates.
It would be nice to cook up a plan and come up with reds as BGs, or at least a higher chance than RnG-ing.
Cube didn't hold anything back here. He was very elaborate when talking about BGs. Which is good, but he points out that he is perfectly aware that without census, we are blind. He should have put less focus on who the BGs were going to be and mention more about the mayor/census.
On January 25 2011 07:21 CubEdIn wrote:
P.S.:
The reason I'm not going for RoL is that, if he's mafia, the town is as good as dead. Kav may be more open to everyone's suggestions (including RoL), but I'm not sure what RoL would do. Be it scum or not.
I won't deny that he's very experienced, but that would make the game incredibly difficult if he's red.
Also, Kav someone semi-claimed of having a cool blue role. I don't know if that was a joke or not, but I'm gonna put a bit of trust into him.
After all, if he does turn up scum-ish, we could always lynch him right?
Again, playing off the mayor role as a fleeting whim. Compare this to his in-depth analysis on Bodyguard picking. It just depends if he honestly thought BG picking was more important then the mayor (which a lot of people were doing...) or he was egging the conversation in that directon.
Do I think Cube/Kav are mafia? Hardly. Do I think Cube could have been tunneling the thought process? Yes.
On January 26 2011 04:49 CubEdIn wrote:
Okay I'm back.
So, it seems like Kav is gonna be our mayor.
We're running out of time, so please state how BGs will be picked so we can come in with ideas while we still can.
And as for census, sure, you do what you want, or what town wants, it doesn't really matter. But it makes most sense to go:
- total mafia -> tell town
- total SK -> tell town
- total blues -> don't tell town (town doesn't need to know, unless you risk dying or something, but Mafia might benefit a lot from this piece of information)
- then count doctors/dts/vigs/etc. (just in case someone checks GF, we may be able to flush him out if the blue role he fakes gets too many claims)
- total GF is also ok, but let's see how many mafia there are. I doubt there will be too many GFs anyway
I'd say... if anyone has a DIFFERENT idea, then feel free to share.
My belief is that picking the BGs will have a much greater impact on the game.
Bolded part, maybe people disagree with me, but I don't think picking BGs will have a greater impact then the census. Speaking of census, Cube mentions counting individual blues and GF. I remember thinking that as well, but I thought node said we could only census Mafia, SKs, Town and Blues. Not sure if it was clarfied, but from the OP it seems that way.
On January 26 2011 04:59 CubEdIn wrote:
Since there's no way I'll be mayor, here is a kind of system I thought of to bring as many scum/sk into the bodyguards picks.
It's not perfect, but I believe it has a good chance (20-30%ish) of hitting a red in the BGs:
Step 1:
RnG 8 people (out of everyone BUT mayor candidates and people who already volunteered as BG), ask them to confirm/veto if they wanna be BG
Step 2:
Tally up the number of vetos, and lurkers, and mayor candidates (not relevant in this case, since it's just 1-2 other ppl).
Step 3:
a) If the number of vetos is high (4 or more), pick 2 BGs from the people who veto-ed. Sure, some might be blues, but not all of them, so there's a high chance a Mafia/SK didn't want BG. If it's a scared townie, then you're not losing much anyway.
b) If the number of vetos is low (<=3), then pick one BG from that and 1 from lurkers. This is the suckiest scenario, but it still has a decent shot of picking a Maifa out of luck. Technically, 8 ppl is about 1/3 of the players if you exclude candidates and ppl who asked for BG role, so there should be roughly 2 mafia in there. At least one.
c) If the number of vetos is 0 (everyone agrees), pick 2 people out of the 8, as mafias would try to blend in, and blues that agreed would be ok (maybe vets or so).
__________________________________________________________________________
Of course, this will not work if everyone knows the selection criteria, and it's not even polished. I didn't put too much thought into it as I figured I wouldn't get to use it.
Also, the criteria would've been posted on a different forum or hidden somewhere with a date stamp, so that the town knows you're not just making them up AFTER you know the results of the tally. They would later be revealed to town.
So I know you can't use this (especially since there's no time for people to accept/veto), but maybe I gave you some ideas.
Well he said what I was going on about with mayor a lot more smoothly. Cube has pretty big posts -_-
On January 26 2011 05:03 CubEdIn wrote:
^ The post above assumes that mafia are somewhere between 6-8 people (8 would be really imba, but it depends on the clues I guess), and SK are 1-2 people. That's how I made "rough odds" of hitting Mafias. I guess it doesn't work as well if there are only 5 mafia or less, but that would mean that we could clear out mafia based on clues alone, so I am assuming that the number is 6-7.
Well this is interesting, but going into to much detail about this will lead to WIFOM. Because there are 5 mafia based on Kav, Cube feels we can find them based on clues and that this wouldn't work as well. Can't really say much else.
On January 26 2011 05:30 CubEdIn wrote:
Well yeah, I was toying with the veto idea from the start.
Greens can also veto if they don't want to be targets and/or attract mafia hits, so in the end it can be a coin-flip, but my idea was that, since we ARE gonna put pressure on two BGs anyway, why not put pressure on a third of the players? It seems like a decent amount to start with.
But I digress, it's not gonna work as long as the criteria are public, and it's not gonna work due to lack of time.
Which brings me to your Option 6. It looks ok to me, but do we have time to set up a vote? And even if we do, I think it still helps the Mafia more, because they can push someone they want dead as a a BG and hit two birds with one stone.
Townies are clueless at this point, so they'll probably random-vote anyway, and it's not like it's "better" that a BG is someone with experience, or something like that, so what criteria would we pick for votes?
More BG stuff, disregards veto idea. Not much else.
On January 26 2011 05:36 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 05:29 darmousseh wrote:
Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.
I think this one is the best.
upside. Vets are tough to kill, and can be protected if necessary, mayor can live a long time. Anyone that claims to be a vet and ends up not being a vet as a bodyguard would be instantly identified as scum. Scum will probably have 1 person claim vet, in which case we can use role checks to check out the identities. Also, in the end, if vets aren't used to soak up kills, then they are wasted. By volunteering for bodyguards we can almost ensure that their abilities are used for the benefit of town. Also if we get lucky and get 2 vets then the mayor can be alive for almost the entire game if played correctly. The other thing too is that we would be less likely to lynch a vet since they will be selected as bodyguards and not in the pool of people we would want to lynch.
downside. Reds can claim and mess it up, but they will be identified more quickly and it will be more of a risk since that will mean 2 reds lynched and 2 vets still in town.
I'm still trying to think of the risk of an SK getting chosen to be a bodyguard.
I'd have to agree with this.
Just one thing though: we don't know the Mafia KPs.
This is important because:
a) If mafia has only 2KPs to start with, they probably won't risk hitting the Vets. This is because with one medic on them, 2KPs will not kill one person, and a night with no deaths is sad for the mafia.
This will make them mow down townies until get bored (knowing that a vet is likely not among them), and then handle the vets when needed.
b) If mafia have 3KPs or more, then they can easily land 2 on a vet (and if medic protted, then at least they get one life off), and one on someone else. OR, they can just go 3 on a vet and kill him right there.
Actually, the 1-town 1-mafia is not so bad because we would lose mayor and kill a red. And after the first night we will know total number of reds so that helps a lot imo. But having the vets revealed, kind-of defeats the purpose of being a vet IMO.
I liked that one to cube, and I liked Option 94 where we found out BGs favorite color.
On January 26 2011 07:53 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 06:45 darmousseh wrote:
I don't think the sks have any motivation to be bodyguards then. I still think having at least 1 vet is good for bodyguard
Nobody is denying that.
The trick would be to get a Vet as BG
without letting everyone (and thus, the mafia) know.
That would be by far the best choice for one of the BGs.
As for the other one, the Godfather, but that's not gonna happen because GF gets chosen on night 1, and BGs get chosen before that.
Jackal before was asking questions about the vet claim I believe, asking over-the-top questions aobut what vet would do. He's either our most obvious townie, or the most diabolically sick-minded mafia I've ever come across.
On January 26 2011 09:11 CubEdIn wrote:I'm going to sleep, so no more posts from me for about 8 hours.
That being said, I dislike the option of RnG-ing mayor as well.
Sorry, but it sounds like something a scum would come up with when their choice of a mayor is not winning.
Now, I'm not saying that RoL is red, but maybe both candidates are blue and Mafia is desperately trying to come up with a plan to get a red on the hot chair. I'm not liking it.
Maybe if the idea came out sooner, it would work, but now when there are only a few hours left, a good deal of the players won't even have time to catch up.
That being said:
If the majority decides to follow this, just pretend I picked 2, but I
strongly suggest we just take our chances with Kav or RoL.
You are right on one behalf though, Mafia would have a FCKTON to gain if they got a red mayor, and the census ability is so so sooooooo easily forged, as it can only truly be verified by mafia. Other numbers won't really come up 'till the very end of the game.
To the more experienced players, a question: Were there mafia games where mayor was revealed as scum soon after he was elected? Or does it usually end in tears like when DrH was mayor/scum last time?
Haters gonna hate
He seems fully aware of what a red mayor could do. But he didn't run, which kinda screws up my assumptions. Kav would have to be red for that. I don't think town has the balls to really confront Kav if he has buddies like Cube with him. Guess we could just pass that option by.
On January 26 2011 19:54 CubEdIn wrote:
Morning everyone.
I scanned over the thread, got one question:
Kav, why Beneather? I get GMarshal, but what was your reasoning for the second BG pick? I think it's important that we know, and I didn't see an explanation or him volunteering.
I might have missed it, in which case I'm sorry, but I do believe it's crucial information.
Also, I believe it's important to know number of SKs. Especially if Mafia turns up 4-5-6 people, because that could mean that there are more than one SK.
Basically, in theory, mayor should be safe until at least one of the BGs die. If both BG are mafia (or Mafia+SK) then we lose mayor but get 2 good lynches, which is worth the census ability. So my point is, until at least one BG dies, then we have a bit of wiggle room with the census. Which is why we could use an SK count in night 2, imo.
Also, in case you guys didn't notice, black is sort-of a recurrent theme in this game, so we shouldn't put TOO much emphasis on that when analyzing clues. I'm just saying, because this night it says there are no clues, but there are references to black anyway.
I think Cube is one of the first one to throw dirt on beneather. That's important to note. Still focused on the BGs, and since kav picked them without much pomp and circumstance... kinda defeated the purpose of most of the discussion during the election.
On January 27 2011 00:02 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 23:42 Kavdragon wrote:On January 26 2011 16:03 LunarDestiny wrote:
When I say "took out," I meant take him out of the list of suspects because Coag acts like this every game.
Sorry, didn't mean this as a suspect list, just as a list of people who need to post more.
On January 26 2011 19:54 CubEdIn wrote:
Kav, why Beneather? I get GMarshal, but what was your reasoning for the second BG pick? I think it's important that we know, and I didn't see an explanation or him volunteering.
I might have missed it, in which case I'm sorry, but I do believe it's crucial information.
Beneather was the first inactive I found through random clicking on the signup list. Not the optimal selection process, but I had about 60 sec to pick.
Mkay.
I was asking because you soon after made a strong point about bumatlarge.
I'm not denying that bumatlarge seemed scummy, I even said so earlier on, but it looked odd, considering you had power over the first lynch, AND you would like Mafia as BGs, that you neither killed or picked bum as a BG, and instead made a case against him so the town have to use a lynch.
That would be interesting to have a DT BG. But I doubt my lifespan would have been very long once the initial FoS wore off.
On January 27 2011 23:56 CubEdIn wrote:Yeah it seems so.
And Kav said that he got 5 mafias.
Now, it doesn't really matter if OM was mafia or not, we can safely assume that there are 5 mafia (kp would be #of mafia / 2 rounded
down) and 1 SK.
That is, if nobody else comes forward.
I'll get to the post/clues analysis later, don't have much time now and it's a sh*tstorm in here anyway, but I wanted to address one issue first:
Should census be used for anything else?
I mean, if nobody else comes forward then we have a clear number of "reds": 6 (5+1). Which means that we don't really need to know more information at the moment.
Kav should have the option to count blues or something, but not to share it with the town, maybe if he was in a town circle or something.
I suggest that we use it for mafia numbers, as it's super-important to know if our lynches are on-target.
Also, if I'm correct about the KPs and Kav is not lying about the mafia numbers, then we need to kill 2 mafia before we can drop their KP to 1.
This may not seem important, but it means that they CAN afford to sacrifice someone to get to the mayor without losing a KP. That is, of course, if a red is among the two BGs
Another stab at beneather
because of the shitstorm he doesn't post analysis. I havent seen any analysis from cube yet. But I haven't heard anything to condemn him, so im still fairly neutral at this point.
On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote:
Well, I got a bit more time to check out the thread. I don't like the page-long analysis on one individual.
I mean, they would go great in mid-late game when you have like 50-60 posts to choose from and you pick the most incriminating ones, but if you analyze ALL the posts, then you're bound to find a bit of scum in everyone, but nothing very conclusive.
That's my opinion on RoL's case at least.
So I went back and looked at the clues.
Needless too say, nothing obvious this time, but the second person showing up @ Meapak's murder site got me thinking.
If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first?
I think it's important to know, because if it happened during the first night, it's bound to happen again.
Also, I am assuming that if mafia uses 2kp on same target, we will have indications towards two assassins as well, and information that they worked as a team, correct? (that's how it was in the first game of mafia I played).
Also, I've been toying with an idea, I want to hear what the town thinks.
Since we don't have information about who's what, even after they die, DTs are far more important in this game.
So, I think that it's important that DTs play well.
Since it's pretty safe to assume that Mafia has only 2kp (I'm thinking that that extra person was at best another SK, and that SiN is not lying, don't see WHY he would), then it's kind-of hard to kill a DT if town stacks medics upon them.
That being said, I think DTs who find a red or sk, should immediately come up with it (preferably in a town circle, but since that's less likely, then to town). If we have at least two medics then it would take 3kps to kill DT, and even if they do stack them upon him, then it's probably worth losing 1 dt for 1 red.
I'm saying this because if a DT finds someone important, and dies, we won't even know if he had any solid reason to push for whoever he was pushing in the thread.
So, the basic idea is that we CAN'T rely purely on census this game. We need some kind of strong circle or something, to make sure that DTs can cooperate fully.
That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN.
Reasoning: He claimed he was hit.
Scenarios:
a) He is mafia.
He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more.
b) He is SK
Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway.
By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either.
c) He is town
This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on.
The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town.Disagree on the analysis, you have to take everything into consideration, which is what I am doing now. If you say it like "bound to find something scummy" then you are looking for false information. You can do analysis and come up with the outcome of town, and that is enormously helpful.
Second part is funny, doubt I need to say agree with you there.
I thought siniquity was town then and I do right now. Wish he would talk more.
On January 28 2011 05:14 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 05:11 Jackal58 wrote:
Scrap that. If the DT claims we don't need anything else except medic protection. And nobody knows how many of them we have.
Well yes, that's why I believe that DT should
only claim if they stumbled onto something important. (at the very LEAST to stop lynching a blue or something). So no claims unless it's wroth the risk.
And as for SiN in town circle, I don't think that's wise. Mafia will probably try to finish him off, and since he's most likely vet (and thus, not DT), he won't have much to bring to the table in a town circle (other than being the official spokesperson or something lol).
But I was just saying, at least we know we have ONE green.
Funny how I am doing exactly what cube says and providing fair amount of evidence and still getting shat upon.
On January 28 2011 07:51 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 05:48 LunarDestiny wrote:On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote:
That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN.
Reasoning: He claimed he was hit.
Scenarios:
a) He is mafia.
He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more.
b) He is SK
Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway.
By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either.
c) He is town
This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on.
The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town.
While I agree with you that SiNquity is not SK, I don't agree that a hit claim makes him town.
He claimed to be hit, even if he is mafia, nothing can be used against him. Not even a counter claim can prove that he is lying. There's no disbenefit of claiming to be hit as mafia in this setup.
While it is also likely that he is indeed town, he claimed to be hit to provided more information.
The only thing I can take out of his claim is that if he die the subsequent, that he is very likely to be telling the truth and gives out more information on mafia's KP.
Well, the way I see it, mafia will not hit him again.
1) because medics might protect him
2) because he might be SK (highly unlikely)
3) because of WIFOM, that you just pointed out
But, assuming that there are 2 mafia kp (lowest we can assume), and 2 SK (not too much if initial setup was 5 mafia + 2sk - reasonable with 31 players), then we are, indeed, missing one hit (2 dead, one guy trailing Meapak = 3, where's the 4th?). And since nobody counter-claimed, it's unlikely that he is lying.
As I said, I don't want him to claim, I don't want other people to trust him and put him in circles, etc. I'm just saying, we have very very little information to go by in this game, and since I don't see any possible benefit in the mafia claiming, then it's safest to assume he's town.
Think about it, if two people claimed, they would be on the radar instantly. One of them would be very likely to be lying, and SiN said he was hit soon after the post, why would a mafia put themselves on the map like that?
In the end it doesn't matter, we're not trusting him with sensitive info, we don't need to lynch him, etc. So we can see what happens, and that's that, but if we ignore things like this, we'll have mostly WIFOM to go by the hole game, and I don't want that.
Oh look, the chances of being hit leading to WIFOM, sounds familiar. Cube gives a lot of good advice, but it almost seems like he's not actually in the game lol.
On January 28 2011 07:54 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 07:44 BrownBear wrote:On January 28 2011 07:16 Kavdragon wrote:
The problem with DT claiming in this situation is that we have nothing to check him by. If he says someone is mafia, there's no way we can tell for sure.
Also, we don't know if we have more than one medic in this setup.
That's actually a good point. However, using logic we should be able to deduce at least a decent guess as to how many blues we have. For example, a rule of thumb with most games played is to give town 1 fewer medics than there are KP. Assuming SIN is telling the truth, we have 3 KP in this setup (Mafia probably has 2, SK has 1), so logically, given that knowledge as well as the number of players in the game, we should have 2 medics.
Problem is, we don't know how many of them have died yet. For all we know, Meapak and TheAldo were both our medics (very unlikely, I know, but still.)
But you are forgetting about the person who was at the site of Meapak's murder.
Since we have no "watchers"/"trackers" in this game, it's pretty safe to assume it was someone who wanted to kill meapak.
So, I would guess that there are 4KPs in this game, not 3.
Unless SiN is lying, then, just three.
What's this 4 kp stuff? Must have missed that.
On January 29 2011 08:21 CubEdIn wrote:
Sup guys?
Sorry, but I'm known for not being active during the weekend. I just get home really late, usually.
I wanted to post earlier today as well, but, honestly, I don't have much to say.
I don't wanna vote for anyone. I'll be honest.
Also, I'm not very good at posting 500 word essays about why someone is scum based on a few posts that I picked. So I tried to focus on clues.
I have someone in mind, that I would definitely kill if I were SK, or mayor on day 1, or things like that, but there's not nearly enough evidence for me to try and build a case against them. Yet.
I will do it if I'll be sure of it, even if it will result in me dying the following night, but I'm saving that for later.
As for the clues, I only came up with Nemesis, and that's very weak, based on his picture alone.
I don't want him to die, and I don't want RoL to die.
I have seen him as town before and he's not ALWAYS super-active and posting, though he will wake up when people try to get rid of him, and post some interesting stuff.
However, for now, I don't think he's scum (mostly because if he were, I believe mafia would've tried to get rid of him on day one, AND because he claimed he was role-blocked, why would a scum do that and risk having other people claim as well, put himself on the map?)
Coagulation... is just being coagulation. He gets irritated when people seem to disagree or push him, and he just starts raging. Now is not the time though, you said it yourself that this game is super-hard due to lack of info on death, so why are you being anti-town?
If you're town, then you have to reason and make people believe that you are town, so that we do not waste a lynch on a green/blue.
If you're not town, then by all means, get yourself killed. But don't -possibly- ruin the game for others just because you get pissed off easily.
Kav, we really shouldn't kill. Even if he's mafia, there's not much to gain from lynching him first, other than that he could possibly be counting blues and whatnot. But if he's SK, then mafia might go for him, and that might uncover things about BGs. If he's mafia, SK might go for BG and uncover stuff about other SK/Mafia. However, as long as he can't find out which is which, then census is not THAT strong of a weapon for the mafia (strong, maybe, game-breaking, no)
So that leaves Nemesis. I don't really want to vote for him, but honestly, I'd rather see him dead than RoL, and his photo does look like a shady/blurry figure, which matches the description of Meapak's murderer.
I know it's weak, but I got nothing better, other that maybe voting for coag and have him figure that I must be scum because he "pointed me out" and I panicked, or something.
Well finally cube starts giving opinions. First thing I notice, is he isn't accusing anyone, he is defending them all. He even goes as far as to say that if Kav is mafia, we shouldn't lynch him. I think you needed to reword that part. Says lynching RoL isn't great but doesn't trouble himself to stop it if he really thinks that. He's not sold on nemesis either, but hey if it isn't him then whatevs. Gives Coag excuses to be coag. Wow, it took a while but cube might be slipping up a little, that or hes desperate to keep his image of helpful town alive.
On January 29 2011 08:24 CubEdIn wrote:
Oh, I forgot about Zergling.
I'd love to vote for him, check out all my previous games. I hate lurkers. But he's most likely just someone who got green and doesn't care about the game much. Plus, he's probably gonna get mod-killed tonight anyway, so voting for him is just as "safe" as voting for yourself as "placeholder". Please.
Oh yeah, this guy, hes town too.
On January 29 2011 08:29 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 08:26 Coagulation wrote:On January 29 2011 08:25 Node wrote:
2 and a half hours to go. Seeing as both hosts are busy and there's rampant inactivity, the night post will be delayed for two hours. That means 20:00 PST / 23:00 EST / 13:00 KST.
hardly inactive.
more like rampant coag bashing.
Yeah, I wonder why that is?
Hope thats sarcasm!
On January 29 2011 08:44 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 08:40 Barundar wrote:
Lets lynch cubedin for talking bodyguards throughout day 1 and post a long apologetic post saying he doesn't have much to say -_-;;
I disagree with this.
Barundar's a little ahead of me, but people have been doing worse things in this game then apologizing.
On January 29 2011 08:57 CubEdIn wrote:
P.S.: You are one of the few who are voting for the guy who'll most likely get mod-killed.
Way to "say" something.
Feel like Cube is trying to overly-defend himself against a single incriminating line. I'm just gonna give Cube a frowny face for these past fews posts. He could just be trying and failing as town.
On January 29 2011 09:39 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 09:17 Barundar wrote:
Lol want me to pick appart your post? It's filled with so many inconsistencies it's unbelievable. And whats with the apologies, did you get called out? Or just feeling nervous?
Obviously, I'm feeling nervous because so many people are targeting me.
I just apologized for lack of activity during this day.
Show nested quote +
You have someone on your mind you would definitely kill if SK or mayor? As far as I know those 2 have different motives for their kills, atleast if the mayor is town. Unless you have some special knowledge of Kav's allignment? And if you want someone to get vigi'd you better speak up with names, if you are sure enough to kill them yourself?
You misunderstand.
I meant that I would kill someone if I had complete power over one kill.
If I were mayor, I'd aim for SK/Mafia. If I were SK I'd aim for other SK/Mafia. So yeah. It doesn't matter what I was (vig would work as well), but if I had a kill of my own, it would be that person.
I have, as you'd call it, a hunch. A pretty good one too, but there's no REAL evidence for me to back it up with. If I were to make a case against him, it would be weak.
If I were to die the night after I made the case, you guys wouldn't have enough reason to kill said person.
So why rush into "analysis" and risk getting killed, when I could make a good case against said person during the next day or two days from now?
Show nested quote +
You don't feel like voting anyone, yett you are voting for something you yourself call a weak wagon? And when was Kav a lynch target before your post?
I already said that Nemesis kinda-sorta-fits the clue about meapak, it's a weak wagon but it's the best I found on my own anyway.
I don't know what you mean. I never implied said person was Kav. I just said that it would be the kind of kill I'd make IF I were kav on day one (when he had complete power over lynch).
In fact, I don't think he's red, and even if he were, I don't think killing the mayor would be a good Idea. I said this before.
Show nested quote +But if he's SK, then mafia might go for him, and that might uncover things about BGs. If he's mafia, SK might go for BG and uncover stuff about other SK/Mafia
Mafia can't night kill SK, so by go for him you mean start a bandwagon him? Something like you just did? This whole sentence is wishy washy, what information would SK gain from killing off BG's?
This may be a bit hard for you to comprehend, since you said I was "going on" about BGs on day one. But BGs are a crucial part of this game.
Here's why:
a) Say town lynches a BG.
Night can very well be a dead mayor (since other BG may be mafia). We lose census AND we lose the power to see if initial lynch was right. We lynch BG, we have... 1 red for mayor+surprise target.
b) Say both BGs are scum
Town will go all game in fear of lynching them, and they will run amok.
So yeah. If a bg dies, then the next night will tell us A LOT, since I'm pretty sure that if Kav is town, then mafia will go for him. Either by killing other bg, or by 'going around' if they're red.
IMO, any BG death will give us useful information, but will most likely also lead us to eventually losing the game because of lack of information about anything.
Show nested quote +
You posted alot of thoughts on bodyguards day 1, but I found your posts really low on other content.
That is true, but I have expressed my thoughts on the lynch targets, and I have expressed opinions about the rest of the game.
The only thing I didn't speak about was "post analysis", simply because I'm not good at it. I did talk about behavior analysis, mainly how people played games before this. It's the best I can do at the moment, that and focusing on clues.
If you think that's good enough reason to lynch me, then by all means, vote for me.
On January 29 2011 10:34 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 10:19 Barundar wrote:
Why do you think a SK would hit mafia? This early in the game they will be aiming for blues.
I don't know, haven't been SK, but I guess it makes sense to go for town because mafia can't kill them.
Though, actually, in the beginning it's ok to dim the numbers of mafia as well for some reasons:
1. There will be less mafia -> clues will be pointing more or less to same people -> less people focusing on the SK
2. Team of players will be more likely to convince town to lynch SK, especially if they targeted SK and SK didn't die => They can basically "role-check" you.
In fact, it may be more ok to go for mafia in the beginning and drop their numbers to 3 or so, and then focus on town. But I haven't given it too much thought until now.
Show nested quote +
And we should have some vigis around. If you feel someone should die, just suggest it to them and they can decide. You are being really wishy washy regarding 3 named persons, and extremely secretive about this person you would definitely kill. I'll hold you to this.
I know what you mean, but I need a bit more time. I promise that you'll understand why if I get to post my analysis. And don't worry about it, I'll post it even if said person dies.
However (and this is pointed both to you and gmarshall), I don't understand why you would vote for someone who's gonna get mod-killed anyway. I don't like lurkers either, but that seems like a safe vote that won't attract attention.
I get that we should vote for who we feel is right, but your vote is useless unless he posts at the last second, in which case, sure, we lynch him next night.
This seems scummier than most of the things that have been held against players so far.
I feel like everything I could say is better said by Barundar and I don't think Cube defended himself satisfactorily.
On January 29 2011 10:41 CubEdIn wrote:What the fuck Coag?
You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating.
So either you're:
a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team
b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore.
You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules.
Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining.
LOL I think someone is mad at coag. It seems like hes trying to defend Coag in a way.
On January 29 2011 10:43 CubEdIn wrote:
Because he's being a douche.
I didn't notice you had 4 votes against you, thought it was less. Then vote for some other player that's not about to get mod-killed. -__-
I think saying someone is being anti-town when they are town is a pretty bold statement.
1) Why can't he be mafia in this situation? If he's able to get away with this then he's got a pretty sick meta going on.
2) Are you perhaps defending him from a stupid move because you know his alignment? Do you think he was bound to get lynched if you didn't step in?
You're starting to slack Cube, and if that's a mafia team you are defending, you can't be hiing behind bad clues and such anymore.
On January 29 2011 11:27 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 11:04 Coagulation wrote:
should i leave my vote on someone who i dont think is likely to be mafia.
i would rather abstain.
I would appreciate it if you did not vote for someone who is 99% sure to get mod-killed anyway.
yapyap
On January 29 2011 11:30 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 11:24 Nemesis wrote:
Meh, I changed my vote to RoL as it gives me the best chance of survival.
It's 6-6 right now, and I think since I reached 6 votes first, I will still be lynched. I'm going to tell you right now that I am just green.
Just some last notes before I die:
CubedIn - I think barundar might have a case against him. It's worth looking into.
Brownbear - he seems to have analyzed all the lynch targets except for me. :/ Just something to note.
This seems rather honest to me.
The fact is, if he was a mafia trying not to get lynched he would:
a) claim medic or vig
b) try to get more votes on RoL, instead he's picking me, who was only picked on by one dude so far. It's like.. the least possible scenario to try and get me pushed during the last 2 hours. It can only mean that he's just trying to help town and actually thinks I'm scum. Which is fair enough.
He could still be SK, maybe, but I'm gonna take my vote off him. And put it on... ummm... someone else.
Nemesis makes a death post, and I agree with cube on some points, that he would claim blue and try to dissuade votes off himself. And was the BB thing an FoS against him or that he thought BB was town? Looking back on it now, BB had his vote on nemesis the entire time, so that's FoS then. Cube takes this finger rather well.
On January 29 2011 11:33 CubEdIn wrote:
Wait, is the night post being delayed, and the timeline extended, or did it end 30 minutes ago?
On January 29 2011 11:38 CubEdIn wrote:
Interesting Mr. Wiggles. So you want to make sure that Nemesis dies?
Anyway, I'm gonna change to Coag.
Here's to hoping that you're a really bad red player.
If you are town and you're doing suspicious/scummy moves on purpose, then I'd rather you not be in the game at all, and hope that you get warned by mods.
And I'm gonna go sleep.
Cheers.
Puts his money where his mouth is. If he is on the same team as coag, this is pretty ballsy considering RoL was 7 votes, Nem was 6 and Coag was 5. And an hour and a half before the lynch, so there was time for a few people to switch around. Unless this was an attempted bus (If I was on the same team as Coag, I'd bus him everyday), cube and coag are not both mafia.
On January 30 2011 08:22 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2011 07:03 Coagulation wrote:On January 29 2011 10:41 CubEdIn wrote:On January 29 2011 10:28 Coagulation wrote:
##unvote Nemesis
##Vote zerroth
What the fuck Coag?
You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating.
So either you're:
a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team
b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore.
You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules.
Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining.
A really overly negative reaction to my vote change.
attacks my "mafia skills" and trys to berate my judgment in a indirect defense of his lurking scumbuddy.
Oh right, because voting for someone who was on the modkill list is not scummy at all.
Also, I had my vote on "my scumbuddy", until he posted some things that seemed fairly honest, which is when I changed it to you.
Or are you implying that it was a master-plan to change my vote after the initial deadline in hope that mods will have moved it, and getting him off right before hang time?
In which case, thanks for changing your vote AS WELL and going along with our plan scumbuddy!
God your logic sucks.
I think coag was referring to zerroth and not nemesis here. Logic often sucks when you misinterpret things. Alright, next up is night 2, let's see what cube's relationship with coag brings today.
On January 30 2011 21:41 CubEdIn wrote:
Ok so, before we go on, shouldn't we clarify a few things:
a) Kav - Please give us the number of Mafias, or whatever you used Census on
b) Since there were 2 or 3 hits, we're missing at least one claim
c) If there are only 2 KPs, then SiN lied about being hit as well last night.
And yes, you do get notified if an attempt has been made on your life. Though, I don't know if both the medic and the player gets the notice.
Also, as far as I understand it, there are no clues pointing to SKs as that would be really imbalanced.
Also lol @ Coag. If I were mafia I wouldn't need to kill you, you're doing a fabulous job at getting lynched by town anyway. Cheers.
Ok, cube just makes some straightforward statements, then calls out coag, nothing out of the ordinary.
On January 31 2011 03:26 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 03:13 BrownBear wrote:
People also seem to have missed this, but I was roleblocked last night.
This means mafia definitely sent something in, at least. What seems more likely to me is this scenario:
NIGHT 1: Mafia starts out with a KP of 2. SK has a KP of 1. 3 hits are sent in, 1 is blocked.
NIGHT 2: SK was lynched, part of the mass modkill, or didn't send in his hit. Mafia sends in 2 hits, 1 is blocked. This means somebody still has to post saying "yo I took a hit last night"
Does this make sense, or am I thinking about it wrong?
Yes it does makes sense, but there's two more scenarios as well.
- Mafia and SK both hit people who were protected and/or vets.
- Mafia hit SK and SK hit someone who was protected/vet.
The fact that nobody posted that they took a hit makes me think that either they are afk or SK took a hit and is being quiet about it, trying to see who will try to out him, as based on my analysis of SK strategies a few pages ago.
On January 31 2011 03:28 CubEdIn wrote:
That is, of course, if there were 2 SKs, since it's pretty clear that someone did not send in actions.
However, actions can also be mason/vig/protect/dt/etc.
On January 31 2011 03:51 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 03:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On January 31 2011 03:28 CubEdIn wrote:
That is, of course, if there were 2 SKs, since it's pretty clear that someone did not send in actions.
However, actions can also be mason/vig/protect/dt/etc.
Yes, but those roles aren't compelled to kill anyone, and don't have clues left behind them, implying SK, see what I wrote two posts back.
Yes, but only Mafia can role-block people, and BrownBear claimed he got RBed.
Which means that the mafia DID send in their night hits. It's unlikely that they didn't. I mean, you'd have to have all 5 people offline, otherwise mods would've PMed them or something.
And why would BrownBear claim RB?
a) he is mafia and trying to confuse the town by putting himself on the radar
b) he actually got RBed, which means mafia did send in their actions.
You are right about the clues part, but I dunno, maybe Node/LSB decided to put clues about SK BECAUSE he didn't send in night kill. Or maybe they are joking?
On January 31 2011 04:00 CubEdIn wrote:
yes, but right after you, jackal posted
"It is also very possible Mafia was all afk and the SK was the only night kp."
So I was trying to cover reply to both with one post.
I was thinking that maybe mods were mad at more than just one-two ppl for not sending in actions.
And about the clues, they may have placed clues on the SK even tho they are not supposed to, because he didn't send in hits.
These are unrelated, they could both be true or neither of them, but I just wanted to clarify what I meant.
On January 31 2011 04:34 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 04:21 deconduo wrote:
So uh, why are we not lynching Nemesis today? The clues for him are a lot more solid than the ones on Jackal. I get the impression that mafia is just diverting the lynch, everyone has forgotten about him again all of a sudden.
If you ask me there are way too many people on the radar, and others are stacking up on them.
This no-info-flip is horrible, we have no idea what went down so far.
So far we have:
- Nemesis (from yesterday) - I still disagree from voting on him because when he thought his faith was sealed, he posted very pro-town. Mafia would try to deflect onto RoL or something, he just doesn't seem like a red to me, sorry, will not vote for him.
- Coagulation (from yesterday, he had 5 votes, which is a lot considering that lynch was @7) - I really don't think he's scum, but I think he's a horrible town player with really crappy logic (see post: If I die, kill X, Y, without any good reasoning, that's horrible town play). I don't want to vote for him since it would be very anti-spirit-of-the-game, as I think he's town. But I wouldn't mind seeing him play better - and it's not just me, others said he screwed up multiple times.
- Beneather (based on clue analysis) - don't know what to say about him, too little information
- Jackal58 (based on clue/posts analysis) - may vote for him, but his retaliation posts do make sense, so he doesn't seem scummy for now
- BrownBear (based on the few posts above, might be mafia and fake-claiming so that town doesn't pick the reds from the inactive list) - possible, but unlikely IMO
...and like 5-6 others if you'll listen to Coagulation who obviously knows the entire red team based on strong facts.
So yeah, and to think I wanted to bring someone else on the radar and hope to convince enough of the town to lynch them, but with 5+ candidates on the line, it's not gonna happen.
GM claimed that hit so the previous stuff is obsolete. Nemesis was pro-town there, I regret not reading more into it. He thinks Coag is town, cube's getting his towny swing on. I like these kinda posts, people should do more of these so we can understand where you are coming from.
On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote:
Hello everyone.
Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours.
I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread.
First of all, town sucks.
Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this.
We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help.
Here's what I think:
a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him".
It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav.
b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that?
If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it.
c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him.
I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night.
Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather?
I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail.
Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red.
WHY DO YOU START POSTS LIKE THIS. Dont be sorry just say you were doing something, it's not as if you can't contribute now and we lose the game now. Other then that, I think he makes good points on the rest of them. I'll get to Beneather in a different post.
On February 01 2011 06:05 CubEdIn wrote:
P.S.: Kav, here's the thing:
As far as I understand, there's no clues towards the SK.
Mafia did roleblock BB (according to him).
So I think clues are about the mafia.
Sk doesn't have clues? I know they sometimes don't but they do have some I believe.
On February 01 2011 08:34 CubEdIn wrote:
Ok, I agree beneather is not a good kill, even if he is mafia. We do not drop the KPs anyway, and we make an opening to hit the mayor if we're wrong.
And I'm not gonna vote for Nemesis, sorry Jackal.
On February 01 2011 08:39 CubEdIn wrote:Also, to everyone voting for Nemesis, consider this:
Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 11:30 CubEdIn wrote:On January 29 2011 11:24 Nemesis wrote:
Meh, I changed my vote to RoL as it gives me the best chance of survival.
It's 6-6 right now, and I think since I reached 6 votes first, I will still be lynched. I'm going to tell you right now that I am just green.
Just some last notes before I die:
CubedIn - I think barundar might have a case against him. It's worth looking into.
Brownbear - he seems to have analyzed all the lynch targets except for me. :/ Just something to note.
This seems rather honest to me.
The fact is, if he was a mafia trying not to get lynched he would:
a) claim medic or vig
b) try to get more votes on RoL, instead he's picking me, who was only picked on by one dude so far. It's like.. the least possible scenario to try and get me pushed during the last 2 hours. It can only mean that he's just trying to help town and actually thinks I'm scum. Which is fair enough.
He could still be SK, maybe, but I'm gonna take my vote off him. And put it on... ummm... someone else.
Look at his post, and my reasoning below
This is not how a mafia posts when he's that close to being lynched. Have you even played this game before? A vig claim, (even though it might be true for jackal), is much more effective at diverting a lynch... here's the proof in tonight's tally..
A strong reason. And I think Jackal isn't mafia now, so I think we should have suggested a new lynch. Of course we start our lynches with clues and then analyze whoever it points to instead of analyizing and then looking for clues on that person.
On February 01 2011 19:44 CubEdIn wrote:
Not just yet. I'll wait for daybreak post it =P.
Also, that was a horrible lynch, I hope to god Nemesis was SK because he sure as hell wasn't mafia.
You can still do this Cube, even if I claimed. Please do.
On February 02 2011 02:59 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 02:14 Jackal58 wrote:On February 01 2011 13:27 Kavdragon wrote:
Cool. With that out of the way, I'll wait a little longer for dissenting voices, then turn in the request for Mafia.
We are going to eventually need a number on the SK population. I'd get that tonight. If we know that number it eliminates people guessing about vig shots.
For now it's more important to know if we're correct about lynches.
Number of kills were low, so most likely we have 2 mafia KPs and 1 SK. If the number of KPs starts fluctuating inexplicably, then sure, we could, but so far we have no idea whatsoever about who is mafia. A confirmed red kill would allow us to get a lot of information.
Basically, if Nemesis wasn't mafia, we have a good deal of information on the people who pushed on him during the past two days.
On February 02 2011 03:05 CubEdIn wrote:
...and how will that help town.
Oh we have 8 blues, that's AWESOME!
Just like the number of SKs, if we find out that there is 1sk or 2sk, how will that help town? At best we'll realize that there are people who did not claim hits, but then what?
But if we know if our lynch is correct, it will open up new doors.
Cube on the census, he's shooting down reasons as to randomly not check mafia numbers, which is good. Jackal in his innocence seems to always be the one making these suggestions, when I would probably put suspicion on others for it.
On February 02 2011 18:50 CubEdIn wrote:
Ok, NEWBIES, time for Cube to post.
Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now.
I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging.
Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?)
Here are the options:
1) bumatlarge is SCUM
Let's start with this one because it's most fun.
Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason.
Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him.
We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*.
Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us.
Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever.
2. bumatlarge is DT
Then he is right about SK.
He will help the town further on.
There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop.
Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that:
a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK
b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK
c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming.
Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town.
So, let's draw the line and think of options:
1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future
2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values.
And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase.
On February 02 2011 19:07 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 19:02 Barundar wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 02 2011 18:50 CubEdIn wrote:
Ok, NEWBIES, time for Cube to post.
Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now.
I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging.
Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?)
Here are the options:
1) bumatlarge is SCUM
Let's start with this one because it's most fun.
Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason.
Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him.
We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*.
Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us.
Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever.
2. bumatlarge is DT
Then he is right about SK.
He will help the town further on.
There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop.
Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that:
a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK
b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK
c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming.
Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town.
So, let's draw the line and think of options:
1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future
2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values.
And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase.
Rofl at delayed rage. Didn't feel like that yesterday? Where is that analysis you promised me?
What do you mean? We only knew that he is not red when Kav posted census results. I tried to get him off the lynch several times but nobody cared.
As for my analysis, do you really want me to post that now, when we have a clear pick between two people?
It was directed at GMarshall and it was about how I think it's 80% sure he is SK or red. Now I got my foot stuck in my mouth, but i'll still post it after we get rid of Lunar and see if he was indeed SK.
Not surprised, Cube is a smart person, and regardless of his alignment, he has to believe me in both cases. Funny how GM is is suspect, as it's either him or siniquity that has to be red to make my claim invalid. And he already called sin 90% town. This will shed more light.
Overall: Cube is a really tough call. He puts a lot of care and effort into his posts. One variable is Cube and Kav being mafia, which would make sense in the long run, but they have had us by the balls for a while now. If anyone wants to look into that further, I'm willing to help you, but it will be a ton of work and require a very scrutinizingly adept eye on kav's play. I won't go into it if no one thinks that.
Cube is red and Kav is not. If I was red as Cube, I would have said a lot of different things, but the nature of his posts certainly lean to this observer townie, who isn't threatened to get hit. He doesn't put himself in situations, and he contributes massive amounts of speculation and has long-winded opinions on eople that don't say much. He would be the smartest of the mafia and he would be playing fairly well from what this caliber of game suggests so far.
If Cube is town, then he needs to start getting more vocal about different things. I think he said he was 90% sure GM was sk or mafia.
I will tell you Cube's alignment once he confirms it through this analysis. If he doesn't deliver, then he's not playing pro-town.
EPT
