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TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 32

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CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
January 25 2011 20:03 GMT
#621
^ The post above assumes that mafia are somewhere between 6-8 people (8 would be really imba, but it depends on the clues I guess), and SK are 1-2 people. That's how I made "rough odds" of hitting Mafias. I guess it doesn't work as well if there are only 5 mafia or less, but that would mean that we could clear out mafia based on clues alone, so I am assuming that the number is 6-7.
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
January 25 2011 20:10 GMT
#622
Here's my bodyguard-picking 2 cents. I've gone through and looked at every idea proposed so far that I could find, plus a couple of my own I added. Note that for this, we're assuming that selecting two scum is impossible and could only happen by blind luck, so we're aiming for two green bodyguards as our optimal scenario unless specified otherwise.

Option 1: RNG: We RNG two bodyguards, who then accept.
Upside: impossible for mafia or SK to affect results somehow
Downside: No way to affect what roles are picked, makes the 1 red/1 green BG scenario far more likely.
Verdict: Let's not do this. It's just stupid, relying on luck to save our asses.

Option 2: Greenclaim: Have two greens volunteer, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: If it works, we get two green bodyguards, enough to keep mayor alive for at least another cycle.
Downside: Reds can claim green easily to screw it up.
Verdict: Also not something we should be doing. In a perfect world where there were no reds, it would work out okay. Of course, in a perfect world where there were no reds, we would have already won.

Option 3: Blueclaim: Two blues claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Not a whole lot.
Downside: Reds can still claim to mess it up, it paints a target on two valuable blues.
Verdict: LOL dear god no.

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.

Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept.
Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens.
Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid.
Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan.

Option 6: The vote: Town votes on who should be bodyguard, Mayor selects those two.
Upside: Puts the decision in the hands of the town, meaning if we screw up, we have only ourselves to blame. We can also pool our thoughts to hopefully make the best decision possible.
Downside: Scum mayor can again screw this up easily by influencing town discussion. Town is not infallible, in fact far from it.
Verdict: The first option I'd actually consider. Still not a great option, but at least it a) gets discussion flowing and b) doesn't let the mayor become an all-powerful role.

Option 7: The Bait-and-Switch: Mayor calls for volunteers for bodyguard/gets town to choose a pool of candidates, then selects from the pool of people who didn't volunteer/weren't chosen.
Upside: Prevents scum meddling (assuming green/blue mayor).
Downside: Raises chance that a blue is chosen as bodyguard. No way to actually tell town that this is the plan, so mayor has to be good at explaining himself to avoid lynch.
Verdict: A fun little tactic, not that useful, considering most of the volunteers/selection pool will probably be green, so the mayor would be picking from the blues/reds. I don't like it.

Option 8: The SK Gambit: Somehow town gets the SK or SKs to agree to be bodyguards.
Upside: To my knowledge, only RED bodyguards won't protect the mayor, so SKs will do their job. Makes mayor essentially invincible. Gets the SKs out in the open, to be lynched at our leisure.
Downside: No way in hell the SKs would ever agree to this.
Verdict: A fun little pipe-dream that will never be a reality. Still, just imagine.



So... yeah, that's all I could find. Right now, Option 6 looks like our best bet, what do you all say?
SUNSFANNED
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
January 25 2011 20:13 GMT
#623
Oops, Option 9: CubEdIn's thing:

On January 26 2011 04:59 CubEdIn wrote:
Since there's no way I'll be mayor, here is a kind of system I thought of to bring as many scum/sk into the bodyguards picks.

It's not perfect, but I believe it has a good chance (20-30%ish) of hitting a red in the BGs:

Step 1:
RnG 8 people (out of everyone BUT mayor candidates and people who already volunteered as BG), ask them to confirm/veto if they wanna be BG
Step 2:
Tally up the number of vetos, and lurkers, and mayor candidates (not relevant in this case, since it's just 1-2 other ppl).
Step 3:
a) If the number of vetos is high (4 or more), pick 2 BGs from the people who veto-ed. Sure, some might be blues, but not all of them, so there's a high chance a Mafia/SK didn't want BG. If it's a scared townie, then you're not losing much anyway.
b) If the number of vetos is low (<=3), then pick one BG from that and 1 from lurkers. This is the suckiest scenario, but it still has a decent shot of picking a Maifa out of luck. Technically, 8 ppl is about 1/3 of the players if you exclude candidates and ppl who asked for BG role, so there should be roughly 2 mafia in there. At least one.
c) If the number of vetos is 0 (everyone agrees), pick 2 people out of the 8, as mafias would try to blend in, and blues that agreed would be ok (maybe vets or so).
__________________________________________________________________________
Of course, this will not work if everyone knows the selection criteria, and it's not even polished. I didn't put too much thought into it as I figured I wouldn't get to use it.

Also, the criteria would've been posted on a different forum or hidden somewhere with a date stamp, so that the town knows you're not just making them up AFTER you know the results of the tally. They would later be revealed to town.

So I know you can't use this (especially since there's no time for people to accept/veto), but maybe I gave you some ideas.


Interesting. I actually kind of like it, but the problem is it puts immediate pressure on the veto-ers. Pretty much the only people who would veto would be a) blues that want to stay hidden like medics/DTs, or b) SKs. So a veto would instantly equal a "HEY! Look at me! I don't want to be in the spotlight!" which would make scum immediately target them. Either they kill off a blue, or they bounce off an SK, then claim vig in the thread and get the SK lynched.

So cool idea, but I have to say no, too risky.
SUNSFANNED
darmousseh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3437 Posts
January 25 2011 20:29 GMT
#624

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.


I think this one is the best.

upside. Vets are tough to kill, and can be protected if necessary, mayor can live a long time. Anyone that claims to be a vet and ends up not being a vet as a bodyguard would be instantly identified as scum. Scum will probably have 1 person claim vet, in which case we can use role checks to check out the identities. Also, in the end, if vets aren't used to soak up kills, then they are wasted. By volunteering for bodyguards we can almost ensure that their abilities are used for the benefit of town. Also if we get lucky and get 2 vets then the mayor can be alive for almost the entire game if played correctly. The other thing too is that we would be less likely to lynch a vet since they will be selected as bodyguards and not in the pool of people we would want to lynch.

downside. Reds can claim and mess it up, but they will be identified more quickly and it will be more of a risk since that will mean 2 reds lynched and 2 vets still in town.
I'm still trying to think of the risk of an SK getting chosen to be a bodyguard.
Developer for http://mtgfiddle.com
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
January 25 2011 20:30 GMT
#625
Well yeah, I was toying with the veto idea from the start.
Greens can also veto if they don't want to be targets and/or attract mafia hits, so in the end it can be a coin-flip, but my idea was that, since we ARE gonna put pressure on two BGs anyway, why not put pressure on a third of the players? It seems like a decent amount to start with.

But I digress, it's not gonna work as long as the criteria are public, and it's not gonna work due to lack of time.

Which brings me to your Option 6. It looks ok to me, but do we have time to set up a vote? And even if we do, I think it still helps the Mafia more, because they can push someone they want dead as a a BG and hit two birds with one stone.
Townies are clueless at this point, so they'll probably random-vote anyway, and it's not like it's "better" that a BG is someone with experience, or something like that, so what criteria would we pick for votes?
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
January 25 2011 20:36 GMT
#626
On January 26 2011 05:29 darmousseh wrote:
Show nested quote +

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.


I think this one is the best.

upside. Vets are tough to kill, and can be protected if necessary, mayor can live a long time. Anyone that claims to be a vet and ends up not being a vet as a bodyguard would be instantly identified as scum. Scum will probably have 1 person claim vet, in which case we can use role checks to check out the identities. Also, in the end, if vets aren't used to soak up kills, then they are wasted. By volunteering for bodyguards we can almost ensure that their abilities are used for the benefit of town. Also if we get lucky and get 2 vets then the mayor can be alive for almost the entire game if played correctly. The other thing too is that we would be less likely to lynch a vet since they will be selected as bodyguards and not in the pool of people we would want to lynch.

downside. Reds can claim and mess it up, but they will be identified more quickly and it will be more of a risk since that will mean 2 reds lynched and 2 vets still in town.
I'm still trying to think of the risk of an SK getting chosen to be a bodyguard.


I'd have to agree with this.

Just one thing though: we don't know the Mafia KPs.
This is important because:
a) If mafia has only 2KPs to start with, they probably won't risk hitting the Vets. This is because with one medic on them, 2KPs will not kill one person, and a night with no deaths is sad for the mafia.
This will make them mow down townies until get bored (knowing that a vet is likely not among them), and then handle the vets when needed.

b) If mafia have 3KPs or more, then they can easily land 2 on a vet (and if medic protted, then at least they get one life off), and one on someone else. OR, they can just go 3 on a vet and kill him right there.

Actually, the 1-town 1-mafia is not so bad because we would lose mayor and kill a red. And after the first night we will know total number of reds so that helps a lot imo. But having the vets revealed, kind-of defeats the purpose of being a vet IMO.
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
darmousseh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3437 Posts
January 25 2011 20:44 GMT
#627
On January 26 2011 05:36 CubEdIn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 05:29 darmousseh wrote:

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.


I think this one is the best.

upside. Vets are tough to kill, and can be protected if necessary, mayor can live a long time. Anyone that claims to be a vet and ends up not being a vet as a bodyguard would be instantly identified as scum. Scum will probably have 1 person claim vet, in which case we can use role checks to check out the identities. Also, in the end, if vets aren't used to soak up kills, then they are wasted. By volunteering for bodyguards we can almost ensure that their abilities are used for the benefit of town. Also if we get lucky and get 2 vets then the mayor can be alive for almost the entire game if played correctly. The other thing too is that we would be less likely to lynch a vet since they will be selected as bodyguards and not in the pool of people we would want to lynch.

downside. Reds can claim and mess it up, but they will be identified more quickly and it will be more of a risk since that will mean 2 reds lynched and 2 vets still in town.
I'm still trying to think of the risk of an SK getting chosen to be a bodyguard.


I'd have to agree with this.

Just one thing though: we don't know the Mafia KPs.
This is important because:
a) If mafia has only 2KPs to start with, they probably won't risk hitting the Vets. This is because with one medic on them, 2KPs will not kill one person, and a night with no deaths is sad for the mafia.
This will make them mow down townies until get bored (knowing that a vet is likely not among them), and then handle the vets when needed.

b) If mafia have 3KPs or more, then they can easily land 2 on a vet (and if medic protted, then at least they get one life off), and one on someone else. OR, they can just go 3 on a vet and kill him right there.

Actually, the 1-town 1-mafia is not so bad because we would lose mayor and kill a red. And after the first night we will know total number of reds so that helps a lot imo. But having the vets revealed, kind-of defeats the purpose of being a vet IMO.


Well, what is the purpose of being a vet? To hope that you get randomly targeted by the mafia? or to soak up kills?

Maybe a compromise would be 1 vet, 1 green.
Developer for http://mtgfiddle.com
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
January 25 2011 20:46 GMT
#628
On January 26 2011 05:30 CubEdIn wrote:
Which brings me to your Option 6. It looks ok to me, but do we have time to set up a vote? And even if we do, I think it still helps the Mafia more, because they can push someone they want dead as a a BG and hit two birds with one stone.


Honestly, I hope to god they do this. Part of the point of setting up the vote is to provide a ton of fodder for discussion and analysis, and if we notice that a group of people moved to place someone as a BG who died that night... well, that's something to work with then, isn't it?
SUNSFANNED
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
January 25 2011 20:52 GMT
#629
On January 26 2011 05:44 darmousseh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 05:36 CubEdIn wrote:
On January 26 2011 05:29 darmousseh wrote:

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.


I think this one is the best.

upside. Vets are tough to kill, and can be protected if necessary, mayor can live a long time. Anyone that claims to be a vet and ends up not being a vet as a bodyguard would be instantly identified as scum. Scum will probably have 1 person claim vet, in which case we can use role checks to check out the identities. Also, in the end, if vets aren't used to soak up kills, then they are wasted. By volunteering for bodyguards we can almost ensure that their abilities are used for the benefit of town. Also if we get lucky and get 2 vets then the mayor can be alive for almost the entire game if played correctly. The other thing too is that we would be less likely to lynch a vet since they will be selected as bodyguards and not in the pool of people we would want to lynch.

downside. Reds can claim and mess it up, but they will be identified more quickly and it will be more of a risk since that will mean 2 reds lynched and 2 vets still in town.
I'm still trying to think of the risk of an SK getting chosen to be a bodyguard.


I'd have to agree with this.

Just one thing though: we don't know the Mafia KPs.
This is important because:
a) If mafia has only 2KPs to start with, they probably won't risk hitting the Vets. This is because with one medic on them, 2KPs will not kill one person, and a night with no deaths is sad for the mafia.
This will make them mow down townies until get bored (knowing that a vet is likely not among them), and then handle the vets when needed.

b) If mafia have 3KPs or more, then they can easily land 2 on a vet (and if medic protted, then at least they get one life off), and one on someone else. OR, they can just go 3 on a vet and kill him right there.

Actually, the 1-town 1-mafia is not so bad because we would lose mayor and kill a red. And after the first night we will know total number of reds so that helps a lot imo. But having the vets revealed, kind-of defeats the purpose of being a vet IMO.


Well, what is the purpose of being a vet? To hope that you get randomly targeted by the mafia? or to soak up kills?

Maybe a compromise would be 1 vet, 1 green.


Both.

You need to soak up HITS not kills.
Mafia will not always know if the target that didn't die was protected by a medic, or was a vet, or who-knows-what.
If they know you are vet, and it takes 2 hits to kill you, they will just use 2kp and that's that. They'll probably need to get rid of vets anyway, so it only makes it easier for them.

On January 26 2011 05:46 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 05:30 CubEdIn wrote:
Which brings me to your Option 6. It looks ok to me, but do we have time to set up a vote? And even if we do, I think it still helps the Mafia more, because they can push someone they want dead as a a BG and hit two birds with one stone.


Honestly, I hope to god they do this. Part of the point of setting up the vote is to provide a ton of fodder for discussion and analysis, and if we notice that a group of people moved to place someone as a BG who died that night... well, that's something to work with then, isn't it?


Yeah I guess you have a point, but then we get back to the question: What criteria does town vote on? Because if I were to guess right now, I'd say most of town will vote for RoL. And judging by past games, RoL will be a main target for Mafia due to him being an experienced player (which mafia likes to kill asap). So you'll end up with a bunch of people who voted for RoL because they like him and/or he's experienced and/or he volunteered already and/or they are mafia. Then, it won't be of much use.
I mean, if 8 people vote for someone out of the blue, then hell yeah, but I doubt that's gonna happen.
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
January 25 2011 21:01 GMT
#630
Well, I know I for one would support less well-known, under-the-radar players, for two reasons:

1) They're less likely to get the treatment you mentioned, and
2) They're generally less skilled analysts (not a knock against them, it comes with being new), so their deaths mean less to town.

Of course, not everyone thinks like I do, so your criticism has merit. At the same time, we're getting closer and closer to defaulting to "Kav/RoL just picks the bodyguards" and I really don't like that option.
SUNSFANNED
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-01-25 21:44:46
January 25 2011 21:36 GMT
#631
Because I've seen it mentioned a couple of times, for the record, Serial Killer bodyguards will not protect a mayor of any alignment. They're too busy being out, doing serial killer-y stuff to bother.

On January 16 2011 15:03 Node wrote:
Bodyguard
You have been chosen by the mayor to protect their life at all costs. While you are alive, the mayor cannot be killed or roleblocked. Mafia-aligned players chosen as bodyguards will not protect town-aligned mayors. Serial killer bodyguards will not protect a mayor of any alignment. Role checks still work as normal for you. For instance, a check on a mafia-aligned roleblocker that had been chosen as a bodyguard would return "Mafia Roleblocker Bodyguard".



On January 25 2011 11:09 SiNiquity wrote:
Also, direct link to Amber[LighT]'s profile: Amber[LighT] (you have to use the url escape codes for the brackets, %5B and %5D).


Thanks for this, by the way.
whole lies with a half smile
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
January 25 2011 21:42 GMT
#632
Ahh ok, that throws a wrench in that then. Ah well.
SUNSFANNED
darmousseh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3437 Posts
January 25 2011 21:45 GMT
#633
I don't think the sks have any motivation to be bodyguards then. I still think having at least 1 vet is good for bodyguard
Developer for http://mtgfiddle.com
CubEdIn
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Romania5359 Posts
January 25 2011 22:53 GMT
#634
On January 26 2011 06:45 darmousseh wrote:
I don't think the sks have any motivation to be bodyguards then. I still think having at least 1 vet is good for bodyguard


Nobody is denying that.
The trick would be to get a Vet as BG without letting everyone (and thus, the mafia) know.
That would be by far the best choice for one of the BGs.
As for the other one, the Godfather, but that's not gonna happen because GF gets chosen on night 1, and BGs get chosen before that.
Im not a n00b, I just play like one.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
January 25 2011 22:57 GMT
#635
What will you do with the clues pointing to mafia? Will the clues be pointing toward them in random fashion or will the clues be pointing toward the one sending you the nightkill pm

If you refuse to answer this question, I understand.

But if mafia asked you this and you answered them, please be fair and tell us too.
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 25 2011 23:12 GMT
#636
A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in.

I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts.

On a BG plan
+ Show Spoiler +
We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5.

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.

Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept.
Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens.
Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid.
Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan.


We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back.

So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups.

5 mafia, 2-3SKs.
6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs
7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely)

With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor.

Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
BrownBear
Profile Joined March 2010
United States6894 Posts
January 25 2011 23:19 GMT
#637
On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote:
A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in.

I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts.

On a BG plan
+ Show Spoiler +
We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5.

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.

Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept.
Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens.
Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid.
Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan.


We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back.

So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups.

5 mafia, 2-3SKs.
6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs
7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely)

With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor.

Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him.


This could work, I'm not clear on why you don't think mafia will try to falseclaim vet? You never really got to that point, unless I'm missing something.
SUNSFANNED
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
January 25 2011 23:21 GMT
#638
On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote:
A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in.

I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts.

On a BG plan
+ Show Spoiler +
We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5.

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.

Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept.
Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens.
Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid.
Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan.


We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back.

So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups.

5 mafia, 2-3SKs.
6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs
7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely)

With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor.

Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him.

On January 16 2011 15:03 Node wrote:

Mayor
You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected, you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”.

Don't think that's an option.
Life can only kill you once.
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 25 2011 23:26 GMT
#639
On January 26 2011 08:19 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote:
A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in.

I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts.

On a BG plan
+ Show Spoiler +
We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5.

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.

Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept.
Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens.
Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid.
Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan.


We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back.

So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups.

5 mafia, 2-3SKs.
6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs
7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely)

With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor.

Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him.


This could work, I'm not clear on why you don't think mafia will try to falseclaim vet? You never really got to that point, unless I'm missing something.


Oh I forgot thanks BB <3 lol

I believe mafia numbers don't exceed 6, I think it is likely that mafia would lose a KP if they false-claimed. Maybe or maybe not, but it wouldn't help them. I think it would be much more effective for them to stack 2 hits on the vet, who is less likely to be protected, and keep their member. Eventually that mafia BG will die, if mayor isn't scum, and if mafia false-claim and don't kill mayor (which would be awesome) we could eventually census vets. At least thats how I see it.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
January 25 2011 23:30 GMT
#640
On January 26 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote:
A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in.

I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts.

On a BG plan
+ Show Spoiler +
We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5.

Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.

Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept.
Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens.
Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid.
Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan.


We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back.

So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups.

5 mafia, 2-3SKs.
6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs
7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely)

With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor.

Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him.

Show nested quote +
On January 16 2011 15:03 Node wrote:

Mayor
You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected, you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”.

Don't think that's an option.


What isn't? RNG mayor? There are ways, as in everyone posts a number between 1-2, and we add them up. The probability of scum landing a mayor this way is miniscule, and attempting to tamper with it will most likely get screwed. Here I'll start.

2

I cannot change it, and now d3 will be our choice until the next person posts a number. If we set a deadline, mafia can't wait til the last minute.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
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