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Ok so, before we go on, shouldn't we clarify a few things:
a) Kav - Please give us the number of Mafias, or whatever you used Census on
b) Since there were 2 or 3 hits, we're missing at least one claim
c) If there are only 2 KPs, then SiN lied about being hit as well last night.
And yes, you do get notified if an attempt has been made on your life. Though, I don't know if both the medic and the player gets the notice.
Also, as far as I understand it, there are no clues pointing to SKs as that would be really imbalanced.
Also lol @ Coag. If I were mafia I wouldn't need to kill you, you're doing a fabulous job at getting lynched by town anyway. Cheers.
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On January 30 2011 20:15 Barundar wrote:
Looking at Beneather's photo, what is the Master Chief part about it? Some meme I don't know about?
I believe that the main character in halo is called the Master Chief. And that guy is wearing a Halo suit. Something like that, I never played halo either but I believe that's it.
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On January 31 2011 03:13 BrownBear wrote:
People also seem to have missed this, but I was roleblocked last night.
This means mafia definitely sent something in, at least. What seems more likely to me is this scenario:
NIGHT 1: Mafia starts out with a KP of 2. SK has a KP of 1. 3 hits are sent in, 1 is blocked.
NIGHT 2: SK was lynched, part of the mass modkill, or didn't send in his hit. Mafia sends in 2 hits, 1 is blocked. This means somebody still has to post saying "yo I took a hit last night"
Does this make sense, or am I thinking about it wrong?
Yes it does makes sense, but there's two more scenarios as well.
- Mafia and SK both hit people who were protected and/or vets.
- Mafia hit SK and SK hit someone who was protected/vet.
The fact that nobody posted that they took a hit makes me think that either they are afk or SK took a hit and is being quiet about it, trying to see who will try to out him, as based on my analysis of SK strategies a few pages ago.
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That is, of course, if there were 2 SKs, since it's pretty clear that someone did not send in actions.
However, actions can also be mason/vig/protect/dt/etc.
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On January 31 2011 03:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 03:28 CubEdIn wrote:
That is, of course, if there were 2 SKs, since it's pretty clear that someone did not send in actions.
However, actions can also be mason/vig/protect/dt/etc. Yes, but those roles aren't compelled to kill anyone, and don't have clues left behind them, implying SK, see what I wrote two posts back.
Yes, but only Mafia can role-block people, and BrownBear claimed he got RBed.
Which means that the mafia DID send in their night hits. It's unlikely that they didn't. I mean, you'd have to have all 5 people offline, otherwise mods would've PMed them or something.
And why would BrownBear claim RB?
a) he is mafia and trying to confuse the town by putting himself on the radar
b) he actually got RBed, which means mafia did send in their actions.
You are right about the clues part, but I dunno, maybe Node/LSB decided to put clues about SK BECAUSE he didn't send in night kill. Or maybe they are joking?
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yes, but right after you, jackal posted
"It is also very possible Mafia was all afk and the SK was the only night kp."
So I was trying to cover reply to both with one post.
I was thinking that maybe mods were mad at more than just one-two ppl for not sending in actions.
And about the clues, they may have placed clues on the SK even tho they are not supposed to, because he didn't send in hits.
These are unrelated, they could both be true or neither of them, but I just wanted to clarify what I meant.
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On January 31 2011 04:21 deconduo wrote:
So uh, why are we not lynching Nemesis today? The clues for him are a lot more solid than the ones on Jackal. I get the impression that mafia is just diverting the lynch, everyone has forgotten about him again all of a sudden.
If you ask me there are way too many people on the radar, and others are stacking up on them.
This no-info-flip is horrible, we have no idea what went down so far.
So far we have:
- Nemesis (from yesterday) - I still disagree from voting on him because when he thought his faith was sealed, he posted very pro-town. Mafia would try to deflect onto RoL or something, he just doesn't seem like a red to me, sorry, will not vote for him.
- Coagulation (from yesterday, he had 5 votes, which is a lot considering that lynch was @7) - I really don't think he's scum, but I think he's a horrible town player with really crappy logic (see post: If I die, kill X, Y, without any good reasoning, that's horrible town play). I don't want to vote for him since it would be very anti-spirit-of-the-game, as I think he's town. But I wouldn't mind seeing him play better - and it's not just me, others said he screwed up multiple times.
- Beneather (based on clue analysis) - don't know what to say about him, too little information
- Jackal58 (based on clue/posts analysis) - may vote for him, but his retaliation posts do make sense, so he doesn't seem scummy for now
- BrownBear (based on the few posts above, might be mafia and fake-claiming so that town doesn't pick the reds from the inactive list) - possible, but unlikely IMO
...and like 5-6 others if you'll listen to Coagulation who obviously knows the entire red team based on strong facts.
So yeah, and to think I wanted to bring someone else on the radar and hope to convince enough of the town to lynch them, but with 5+ candidates on the line, it's not gonna happen.
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Also, albeit far-fetched:
If I were DT and I've had seen Nemesis get away right before deadline, I'd have checked him.
If he'd have turned green, I'd have kept quiet about - which might be the case.
If he'd have turned red, I'd wait to see if he gets lynched anyway, and if he doesn't, then I'd claim and make sure town lynches a red.
So if he doesn't get lynched tonight, and no DTs come up to say he's red, we can be fairly sure he's town...
Though, most of the reasoning doesn't make sense if he's SK. 
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^ That's true.
And the fact that people are not openly defending him also means that he's probably green.
There are just too many things that don't mix with him being red.
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Well then it's pretty clear that Mafia sent two hits in, and one didn't make it.
Which means that we're just missing one hit, probably an SK who forgot to send their hits in.
Or an SK that had his computer broken.
*giggles*
@Deconduo / Jackal = I mean yesterday, not today. Obviously.
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On January 31 2011 06:41 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2011 06:22 CubEdIn wrote:
Or an SK that had his computer broken.
*giggles*
I'm going to point, out that that is a ridiculous claim as IIRC SK are bullet proof, If I were a SK why would I claim to have been protected.
Well I was kidding, but technically, the only way to disprove you is to have all medics claim, and that's not gonna happen. So you can claim vig, you can claim protection, or you can not claim at all, it doesn't really matter.
But yeah.
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Hello everyone.
Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours.
I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread.
First of all, town sucks.
Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this.
We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help.
Here's what I think:
a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him".
It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav.
b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that?
If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it.
c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him.
I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night.
Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather?
I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail.
Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red.
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P.S.: Kav, here's the thing:
As far as I understand, there's no clues towards the SK.
Mafia did roleblock BB (according to him).
So I think clues are about the mafia.
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Ok, I agree beneather is not a good kill, even if he is mafia. We do not drop the KPs anyway, and we make an opening to hit the mayor if we're wrong.
And I'm not gonna vote for Nemesis, sorry Jackal.
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Also, to everyone voting for Nemesis, consider this:
On January 29 2011 11:30 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 11:24 Nemesis wrote:
Meh, I changed my vote to RoL as it gives me the best chance of survival.
It's 6-6 right now, and I think since I reached 6 votes first, I will still be lynched. I'm going to tell you right now that I am just green.
Just some last notes before I die:
CubedIn - I think barundar might have a case against him. It's worth looking into.
Brownbear - he seems to have analyzed all the lynch targets except for me. :/ Just something to note. This seems rather honest to me. The fact is, if he was a mafia trying not to get lynched he would: a) claim medic or vig b) try to get more votes on RoL, instead he's picking me, who was only picked on by one dude so far. It's like.. the least possible scenario to try and get me pushed during the last 2 hours. It can only mean that he's just trying to help town and actually thinks I'm scum. Which is fair enough. He could still be SK, maybe, but I'm gonna take my vote off him. And put it on... ummm... someone else.
Look at his post, and my reasoning below
This is not how a mafia posts when he's that close to being lynched. Have you even played this game before? A vig claim, (even though it might be true for jackal), is much more effective at diverting a lynch... here's the proof in tonight's tally..
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Not just yet. I'll wait for daybreak post it =P.
Also, that was a horrible lynch, I hope to god Nemesis was SK because he sure as hell wasn't mafia.
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On February 02 2011 02:14 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 13:27 Kavdragon wrote:
Cool. With that out of the way, I'll wait a little longer for dissenting voices, then turn in the request for Mafia. We are going to eventually need a number on the SK population. I'd get that tonight. If we know that number it eliminates people guessing about vig shots.
For now it's more important to know if we're correct about lynches.
Number of kills were low, so most likely we have 2 mafia KPs and 1 SK. If the number of KPs starts fluctuating inexplicably, then sure, we could, but so far we have no idea whatsoever about who is mafia. A confirmed red kill would allow us to get a lot of information.
Basically, if Nemesis wasn't mafia, we have a good deal of information on the people who pushed on him during the past two days.
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...and how will that help town.
Oh we have 8 blues, that's AWESOME!
Just like the number of SKs, if we find out that there is 1sk or 2sk, how will that help town? At best we'll realize that there are people who did not claim hits, but then what?
But if we know if our lynch is correct, it will open up new doors.
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On February 02 2011 03:27 Kavdragon wrote:
In regards to GMarshal being Mafia\SK:
No. There's behavioral analysis behind it, not even clue analysis. It's all speculation based off the "Wouldn't it be interesting if..." It's a pointless discussion that's not going to go anywhere without behavioral analysis to support it, and right now, that analysis doesn't support it.
In regards to Beneather being Mafia:
Yes. It's likely that he is mafia. Yes, I regret my hasty choice, picking him as BG sucks. Remember, I screwed my self over by not realizing that the BG choices had to be submitted BEFORE I was mayor.
No. We shouldn't lynch him yet. Lynching BG's this early is a bad idea, and I'm not saying that because I'm the mayor.
Talking about these two will only waste time for now. Let them keep posting, and let's move our attention elsewhere for now. For at least tonight, I think we should pressure Zerroth, Papapanda, and Divinek. While I think that the posting demographic isn't super likely to have mafia in it, it's going to be the hardest demographic to analyze. If anyone else has targets to put out there, please, do so.
I'd suggest doing so after daybreak, don't give mafia reasons to kill you if you come up with a strong analysis on one of them. Or SK for that matter.
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Ok, NEWBIES, time for Cube to post.
Let's start by assuming Kav is not mafia (could be sk, but not mafia). If he is mafia then the whole census thing is screwed and we can just roll the dice when killing people. So let's remove that variable for now.
I freaking -TOLD YOU- that Nemesis was not scum. It was impossible, but you guys would not listen. That post he made when it was past lynch time in day 2 was super-town. But you bastards decided to kill him anyway. I am raging.
Now, about the bumatlarge situation, it's really FKING simple. (also wtf Kav @ saying we should lynch possible DT? you bonkers?)
Here are the options:
1) bumatlarge is SCUM
Let's start with this one because it's most fun.
Why would scum push for someone to get lynched instead of using KPs on him? Well let's see, maybe they tried to hit him or role-block him and it didn't work. Not sure if they would get notified by this, but either way, that's the only possible reason.
Which would mean that LD is indeed SK, and Mafia found him.
We should KILL the SK as it clearly didn't help the town thus far, and if we let him live he will most likely get revenge on whoever he is pissed at *cough* bum *cough*.
Please see PYP mafia that just ended where town kept presumed SK alive, see how good that did us.
Now, in order to check bum, we only need one DT to check bumatlarge and Beneather. If they flip DT/vanilla, then we are a-ok!, if not, then we have cought TWO mafias at once. AND the SK. This is like, awesomest scenario ever.
2. bumatlarge is DT
Then he is right about SK.
He will help the town further on.
There is no reasonable scenario where LD is not SK. Really. It's a really dumb move my mafia to stick out their head like that if Lunar is just a townie they want dead. We will find out instantly during the night when the KP doesn't drop.
Plus, nobody has claimed RB yet, that can mean that:
a) mafia didn't use it to make lunar seem even more like an SK
b) mafia used it on lunar and he's not claiming because it would prove he is SK
c) mafia used it on someone else who's being a newb and not claiming.
Also, if any of the other DTs found stuff that is contradicting what bumatlarge is saying, say something. We'll have 2 mafias to lynch because of that, and you can get protection, assuming that you can prove your posts. Think well before claiming though. Do so only if it helps the town.
So, let's draw the line and think of options:
1. We lynch LunarD: KP drops by one, we check for scum, and possibly have two more in the future
2. We lynch bumatlarge: SK is still alive, and we lose one DT. That's just DANDY. We hope that SK has more success in killing reds, even though statistically, he will do more bad than good until the number of town/mafia get to the same values.
And we obviously have to kill one of these two tonight, so don't go off bandwagoning on some dumb wild goose chase.
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EPT
