EPTTL Mafia XXXV - Page 3
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On December 30 2010 12:14 flamewheel wrote: I just want to say that I wrote this. Credit hog! Nice lord of the rings reference btw. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On December 30 2010 12:54 ~OpZ~ wrote: ....Why you want to lynch vote now? Hatters [b]probably[/b placed bombs on them. Removing bombs is a good thing for scum. I want this to be discussed, not just followed. I really doubt we have 3 hatters, and I don't care about losing a hatter bomb if it means getting a mafia now. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On December 30 2010 14:54 Insanious wrote: Meapak_Ziphh you, just like RoL make a huge mistake. I was not 100% sure LSB was blue. I was 100% sure he was either blue or red... Either he proves he's blue. He lives. He doesn't, he dies. This could of happened on night 3, wouldn't of hurt the town at all. It could of only helped by saving a blue for more nights, or saved a blue for the rest of the game. Litterally no down side for the town... so we should of waited. I would of killed him instantly on day 3 if I wasn't 100% sure he was blue. Waiting helped the town, killing him gave us nothing. This is what I was saying... there was no point where I KNEW he was blue. And there was no point that I said I was 100% sure he was blue until after he died... Read my posts, and don't put words in my mouth. Just to correct his right now. This is false logic. It gave us information. a LOT of information. Redirecting a lynch last second gives us absolutely nothing except for knowing who a bunch of impulsive townies and a couple of mafia are. Like I said, look at the (day3?) lynch in Salem where they switched to Darth, Darth never defended himself or anything just the entire town switched the vote and got nothing for it. Watching that happen was terrible, considering they were about to actually lynch a mafia. As another note, holding off a lynch is rarely a good idea. Most of the time pushing off a lynch leads to the town completely forgetting or constantly pushing off that lynch. Look at pandain in Insane mafia. He was so obviously scum and they ALMOST killed him a few times constantly pushing it off. Pandain ended up being the only player alive at the end, winning the game for the mafia. Deal with shit now, especially when there is no 100% way to confirm someone that isn't completely ass backwards retarded. The first half of my post on Seraph where I outline the importance of blue roles was a farce. I do not believe for a second we need blue roles to win this game. My creed is that behavioral analysis is the be all and end all of mafia, you either analyze and win or you don't and you lose. Blue roles can help, but at the end of the day who gives a shit about a DT check when there is a framer/miller/godfather in the game. I just wanted to try to see what the response was to that post, while outlining an analysis on a suspicious player. Unfortunately I was at work shortly after I got around to posting that so I wasn't able to see the results until I got home after 10PM when the Day was over, but I still think it served its purpose which is why I attacked you and Seraph. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On December 31 2010 04:21 Pandain wrote: Alright sup ya'll. Tonight was good, and bad. It was good because we didn't lose any blues and I didn't die, but it was bad because we lost alot of really good people. But right now what we have to be doing is getting all these inactives to talk. Until these people post a good post, or start to really help, FoS on them. Opz George CLooney Shockkey Ryu/DArthien\ Brockett(another) Orgolove Right now I'm going to be voting Orgolove, but these people we should especially keep an eye on Why Orgolove? HE claims he's been busy during the holidays but not posting, but really, he's way TOO quiet. I mean, he's always super spammy/agressive, and even the holidays he wouldn't have been this busy. Let's see his posts: States the obvious, already said. Accuses people who try to get people to talk. Note that Orgo says we should be focusing on trying to find red's, but orgolove hasn't done ANYTHING. This is all he says. A short while after LSB died. Now, what does this post do? First of all orgolove barely did anything, and he's immediately apologizing for getting it wrong. This is a very obvious scum tell if I'm correct, and he still hasn't really contributed. He has obviously had time to read the thread, at different points during the day. There is no reason why he should not be contributing more unless he was red. I agree with your analysis of Orgolove, especially about the last part being a major scum tell. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On December 31 2010 12:58 Jackal58 wrote: As long as you're having fun  My brain is about to start hemorrhaging uncontrollably. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On January 01 2011 09:32 orgolove wrote: O rly? vs Spam spam spam spam All you've done this game is a) lead the bandwagon against LSB, directly causing the death of a veteran, and then diverting the town's attention to getting perceived "inactives" instead of actual scumhunting - a classic red tactic. Time and again I point this out - scum hunting will do you far more good than looking at activity frequency patterns. After all, in games like these reds will have more invested in the game, and thus will be more likely to be active through a busy holiday season. lol this is some of the most misleading shit I have ever read. Pandain wasn't actively pushing the lynch. Pandain posted a couple of analysis's and posts have had substance. You however have posted dumb shit, like the lovely comment about an unpassworded IRC channel being a place where mafia can *GASP* read what we are saying, and how that is somehow not town orientated. Its not like pandain said this is where a town circle is gathering everyone please come in. He wanted a place to have quick conversations like through PMs but just faster. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
Part I: What Annul has done. This is Annul's analysis of LSB. + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 01:00 annul wrote: what is the point of this post? acting as if he is mafia to create the impression he is not mafia? WIFOM surely, but think about it what is the point of this? instant attempt to form a wagon on someone who hasnt even posted yet and the game had just started? two posts to seem active and he answers his own question a minute later. point of this? "should we lynch an inactive?" <-- probably knows mafia is most likely to at least pay attention to the thread enough to evade being labeled inactive. probably knows even if there are mafia inactives, he can choose any other town inactive and maintain the aura of "hey im helping out town" the rest of this is informative sure, but common sense? but the line "We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one." worries me. much better to hit an active scummy person and LSB should know this. "DO NOT CLAIM" is good advice, and i would like to say obvious, but given current history and shit it isnt =\ 1 and 2 are fine, 3 is not - you don't claim here, you just admit to being hit - preferably to town circle if you know where it is. 4 is a catch-all sure, but claiming day 1 to a "super awesome plan" is a horrible idea. that said though, LSB is providing pure information (some of which is sketchy) and no analysis. this early it is usually fine but consider it in the light of his earlier postings? it is like he wants to be active but isnt contributing valuable stuff. common sense information fair question! ? more "hit inactives" crap - this is bad. also maybe a blue fish? wants to write a day post. uh huh. keep this in mind with the "try to appear active but not" lens. HEY something of content, cool. sort of defense of pandain and blatant defense of mr. wiggles. sadly the rationale of "inactives instead!" is scummy. dunno how to analyze this -- information that isnt common sense (or meant to filibuster) is fine, and even i didnt know this one. id say this gets a pass yes, lets lynch people with zero meaningful posts. LSB, you up? or yes lets lynch a modkill target because those are almost certainly going to be town and we want to lynch towns, yes. you too. good idea, i like this, but why sign up and then insta modkill on purpose? if youre replaced its not like you can consider any potential wins by the mafia as wins for you -- you are considered not to have even played the game. seems like something nobody should ever do on purpose and if they do, metagaming at its finest. buuuut then we haaaave..... "DONT WORRY ABOUT BEING INACTIVE LOL" after his entire campaign day 1 was "kill the inactives" -- whaaaat? what is this inconsistency? yes coagulation got a 14 day ban on purpose to "help" his mafia team day 1, this makes perfect sense. ***************** in conclusion, LSB has been making pure nonposts and/or pure informative posts without analysis, with the two exceptions being his insistence on the "kill inactives" theme and his defenses of pandain and mr. wiggles. yet he has like 30 posts up while saying almost absolutely nothing. my vote is on LSB now. I would like to say firstly that I agree with LD. Annul's analysis wasn't really what got LSB killed. Annul's analysis drew attention to LSB which LSB then proceeded to kill himself with by doing weird shit. On top of that the "saying a lot while barely saying anything" Day 1 is never a good tell. It is an okay tell, but it can be applied to almost ANYONE who contributed more than one post. Annul buts a huge focus on this for the majority of his analysis. LSB just not contributing, LSB spamming. If you read closely Annul taking a few posts completely out of context. On December 28 2010 01:00 annul wrote: "DONT WORRY ABOUT BEING INACTIVE LOL" after his entire campaign day 1 was "kill the inactives" -- whaaaat? what is this inconsistency? LSB is giving advice to new players, that as long as they read and actively try to play the game that they Don't need to worry about being inactive meaning that if they do the aforementioned they won't be inactive because they will be talking. He takes that in the completely wrong way. On December 28 2010 01:00 annul wrote: 1 and 2 are fine, 3 is not - you don't claim here, you just admit to being hit - preferably to town circle if you know where it is. 4 is a catch-all sure, but claiming day 1 to a "super awesome plan" is a horrible idea. that said though, LSB is providing pure information (some of which is sketchy) and no analysis. this early it is usually fine but consider it in the light of his earlier postings? it is like he wants to be active but isnt contributing valuable stuff. What Annul is calling Sketchy with this post is not really suspicious at all. If a medic protects someone and a mad hatter has not died that night, that person is almost certainly town. The odds of a medic protect and a vigi overlapping is extremely low, and impossible before night 2. Meaning virtually all protects before night 2 are guaranteed innocent. But more importantly READ what LSB wrote and READ what Annul wrote. Annul's point he is calling scum is him reading something out of context again. One, if a medic saves you, you CAN role claim to them, and you can claim in thread that you were saved. The mafia CANNOT fake a medic save considering its confirmed through a moderator PM. And LSB isn't saying the medic should claim in the thread, he is saying the protected person should CLAIM they were protected in the thread which is what they NEED to do. It gives information to the town, on top of that if I am a medic and I claim to someone I protect, as an insurance policy I make them claim publicly that I protected and messaged them. This means that If I die, they know who to scrutinize more. On top of that Annul suggests blind claiming to some town circle, as if all members of a town circle are confirmed and known. If that were true town circles wouldn't exist because the mafia would eliminate them every night phase. Then what really gets me is he attacks point 4, which is obviously a joke. LSB says "The town thinks of some super awesome plan." as another justification for claiming, which seems to me like an obvious joke. On December 28 2010 05:49 annul wrote: you mean like you? i think ~24/30 of this game will agree that i have contributed much more analysis to this game than you have. the 6 who wont are you and your five mafia teammates. if there are seven mafia or eight mafia then it will be 23/30 and 22/30 who will agree with this. =\ This is kind of intuition I guess you could call it. The only reason someone would feel the need to post this last part is because hes trying to avoid what seems like a mafia slip that being knowing the exact number of mafia members. We are also going to see that annul keeps saying how HE contributes and LSB does NOT contribute. On December 28 2010 07:47 annul wrote: 1. "no u" defense again. this is precisely what i called LSB out on in the first place. we wouldnt even have these pages of debate if not for FOSing LSB. couldve just sat back and let pandain fall, very easy right? 2. see: 3. "forced" how? i couldve sat back and let pandain hang, right? why am i calling you out specificallly if i didnt think you were scum? the only way is if pandain and i are both mafia and i am trying to save him, and while i am not clear on pandain, i do know his wagon makes no sense. i realize saying this will mean i hang if he turns red but =\ you are scummier than he is right now. This is a great example of what you will see like 30 times if you go through Annul's post history. Him saying LSB is using a "no u" defense, which isn't at all what LSB is doing but is a great way to dismiss LSB's credibility. LSB wasn't arguing his case amazingly and he said a bunch of things I definitely don't agree with strategywise, but a "No u" defense was not something I ever really saw him doing. I am going to leave the analysis of Annul's play here. I am not going to do an EVERY SINGLE FUCKING POST analysis of him. Its a waste of time and is redundant, especially in Annul's case. He repeats the same stuff over and over again, while constantly discrediting LSB. Part II: What the mafia did and failed to do. This part could be argued to be theoretical. I have played MANY games as mafia and I can safely say that most mafia think very similarly and rarely attempt to delve into deep wifom, and attempting to mind fuck people. That being said, the way LSB's lynch snowballed Day 1 is interesting. A day one lynch is something that is generally very hard for town to get behind, let alone so fast and so sure. The reason I didn't bring this up Day 1 is because LSB had me convinced he was mafia, and I figured most of the town saw the same thing and the mafia didn't want to risk outing themselves to save LSB day 1. I can now say I was wrong about that. We fucked up. So now I have to accept that his lynch didn't pick up steam entirely because of how he acted, but also because the mafia decided that he was a good person to kill. At this point you can say "well Annul fucked up" and tunneled hard on someone who turns out was town. Which could be true, and I'd even give some credit to that statement except for one huge mistake by the mafia. No one EVER pressured Annul Day 2 for his "fuck up". From a mafia standpoint 2 townies going head to head is fucking awesome. Kill one, then kill the other with a lynch since one MUST be mafia, right? Logically after the first guy dies, a mafia can reasonably attack his accuser and get him lynched because of how HARD Annul pushed it thus setting back the town 2 lynches on townies. The mafia could of EASILY attacked and probably killed Annul Day 2 because of his fuck up, but instead Annul goes very quiet, and most people simply pretend it didn't happen. But why would the mafia not attack Annul if its such an easy innocent for them to reasonably attack without garnering too much suspicion? The answer is simple, they aren't thinking like that. Why would they attack one of their own if the attack is entirely unnecessary? If no one else is pushing for Annul to die, then why would they bus one of their own who has NO heat on him going into the night phase, and even the majority of Day 2. Pretty much the entire town attitude was "Well, LSB looked scummy as shit. We can't fault Annul." So the mafia didn't feel the need to throw him under a bus. The failure on the mafia's part to attack Annul makes me firmly believe that Annul HAS to be mafia. The only reason the mafia wouldn't jump on the opportunity to kill him is because he is one of them. Who even after his really aggressive play that killed a blue, the town still didn't look ready to punish him for it, so why would the mafia help the town by doing that? Part III: Enter: Annul If you read Annul's posting he often talks about how whether he is townie or red he will jump on "scummy" play and attack someone like a pitbull for what he thinks is the right thing. To me this looks like Annul is trying to build a meta for himself, and tell us that his play is NOT suspicious because its how he ALWAYS plays. Annul can be seen enforcing this idea in quite a few his posts. But where the idea is cemented was when I talked to him on AIM. When I was talking with Annul on AIM I mentioned how LSB looked scummy to me because of how he was responding to Annul's attack, and that if it was me I would of completely ignored the analysis whether I was town or mafia unless it became an issue and gained some steam as a legitimate argument. The reason being I would rather not get into a public fight with someone, especially since attacking back will generally make you look guilty, and generally only a guilty man needs to respond to such a petty attack. When I told him this Annul told me how he thought that was a good meta to build up, and then started talking to be about his Pitbullish play style that he tries to create and how he will attack anyone who "looks" suspicious whether he is mafia or town. The thing about talking about that so much is, if you are right there is no need to mention it at all. We will see that your scumdar is dead on and you nailed a red. Unless you wanted to preempt excuses and reasoning for why you played so aggressive. On top of that, if you see someone play like that when they are blue/green they aren't afraid to die because it doesn't matter. As long as whatever the townie does benefits the town before his death then he did a good job. Generally a townie will take the mindset of "If I am wrong, well, we will cross the bridge when we get there" while a mafia will try to preempt his defense because he already knows the result. While I agree developing a meta is very important to being a good mafia player, as long as it can remain consistent regardless of your alignment. Look at mine for example. I will never respond to an attack unless I need to. It is VERY simple to pull off regardless of my alignment, and doesn't yield any expectations of my play. Occasionally I will go insane and assault someone like Aidnai in ExMiMa, LSB in HP, or Annul in this game, but its not generally expected of me. The problem with what Annul is trying to set up is people expect results from you, even if you fuck up at first eventually we expect you to do something right if you are being that aggressive. But a mafia can't keep seeing scum where there isn't. It is really hard to but out multiple fake analysis in a game because you simply can't forget who your team mates are, and that everyone else quite simply isn't scum. With that in mind a person trying to pull of his play style needs to play well as a townie (hitting reds consistently) then as a red fuck up within reason and kill a town, then at some point bus one of your teammates, which believe it or not, its hard to find a team mate who wants to die. So in conclusion, Annul is fighting extremely hard to establish and maintain a meta that is REALLY hard to pull off. The only person I have ever seen kind of pull it off is Ace, and he still gets bitch slapped for it sometimes. If that didn't convince you Annul is scum, I honestly don't know what will. As a last statement, I will say why I believe I did not get hit last night. I see it as two possibilities. All my analysis were absolute trash and I didn't get a single mafia, or one at most. Or what I believe to be the actual reason. When I was talking to Annul on AIM he was trying to fish me and got under the impression that I am a Veteran. When looking at that from a mafia stand point I am someone who was very likely to draw medic protection and even if I didn't, one hit wasn't going to kill me anyway. Meaning I was a bad choice for a hit. I personally believe it was the latter, and he told his mafioso that I was a likely Vet and not to target me. I don't think it would be hard to convince a team that I am a bad hit because even if I am not a vet I will most likely draw a medic, and if they stack me and both occur, then well fuck. Day 1 you lost 2 hits. Just simply isn't worth it. So there you have it. After two days of saying absolutely nothing you have an analysis approaching Annul's scum from 3 comprehensive angles. Please try to fight that, and please vote Annul. | ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
|
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
| ||
| ||
