EPTThis will give us more to work with for day 2 than the posts of ~6-8 players who all seem to be going after each other in circles.
TL Mafia XXXV - Page 2
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
This will give us more to work with for day 2 than the posts of ~6-8 players who all seem to be going after each other in circles. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On December 30 2010 14:10 Node wrote: Well, I said that I'd keep my vote on Pandain unless a better case comes up... well, I think I found one. Someone I'm much more comfortable with lynching has presented themselves. Analysis of Mr. Wiggles: (my comments in blue) Bunch o' spam at the beginning. That it was, my bad. Is forced to post something when Pandain throws a vote on him. Mentions that he's going to make longer, more meaningful posts. Hit the nail on the head. Is questioned on what he feels we should do, and responds in length. This post says a lot without saying anything (no actual names are mentioned), but then it is still early in the game, so it's a bit much to ask for more. I was responding to LSB's discussion question. If I remember correctly, this was before many of the players had even checked into the game, so there were not really any people to talk about specifically. I was also asked a general question about inactives/spammers, and then blues, not my thoughts on any players, so that is what I gave. Justifies his initial vote on Pandain after being called out on it. Note that he dislikes polarization, which is a tactic that is viewed as pretty pro-town. I'm not sure where you got the notion I was against polarization from this post. I was simply stating that I thought pandain's pressure was going to be polarizing, which it almost somewhat was (a bandwagon forming on him early in the game). Further justifies his vote by pulling out the "I'm a new guy" card. Asks how PMs should be used (perfectly legitimate question for a newbie) and addresses Pandain's plan of pressuring inactives. He doesn't actually take a stance on it, though. I didn't make it abundantly clear, but if you read the last block of text, you can see I am asking how to go about Pandain's plan, which would infer my agreeance with it. (Though I never really ended up pressuring anybody I admit, the whole annul/LSB deal distracted me and derailed the idea somewhat) Another question. Doesn't actually point out anybody who may be following what he's asking, but seeks guidance for the future. This is very early into the game, and my questions here deal with people's posting habits over long periods of time (2-3 days), so this could not be established for anyone in particular, as we are only now coming up to that point. I'm not even sure if looking at long period posting habits is even valid or not. This post addresses LSB's plan of managing DTs. He dislikes it, but doesn't take a hard stance. Agreed, I thought it would hurt town more than it would help if detectives had the potential to be killed early for information that could be gathered a different way. Actually addresses what the thread is concerned with instead of vague plans on how to play. Good, but, again, no stance is taken -- his eventual conclusion is that the situation is "murky". Again, dislikes the fact than an issue is "polarizing". I may have used polarizing in a different sense here. I agree that it is beneficial for the town if we have multiple lynch candidates, as then we can gather more information based on who people vote for than if they all agreed. But I saw this as a different polarization. This wasn't between two people who we thought were scum and was a polarized vote, this was between who agreed with annul, and who agreed with LSB. It's easy to see the repercussions of this division that formed right now. Those who strongly agreed with annul are still calling LSB's defenders scum, while they think the same of them. This was based on their defense of each player, and I'm not sure if it's been helping very much. There's almost too much emotional involvement on each side. Shows some indecisiveness with his vote after removing it from Pandain, but it's not a big deal at this point since nobody wants to lynch Pandain anymore. This was in the middle of the annul and LSB debate, so this is correct. (I'm not sure why, but my [ blue ] tag quit working here) Ah, finally, a clear opinion is reached. Wiggles decides that the whole annul v LSB thing is bull (though he says he agreed with annul's analysis though he never indicated as such earlier). He mentions Seraph and Brocket (candidates put forth by other people), but doesn't reach any clear conclusion regarding who to lynch in this post. Eventually, he ends up moving his vote to Brocket as the last person on that bandwagon. BUT THEN: after voting Brocket, he switches his vote to LSB just before the lynch ends with literally nothing backing it up. Why the hell did he switch to LSB 18 minutes before the vote ended when he thought LSB was town? Why did he switch from Brocket who fit what he was looking for? So many questions, so little answers. I will explain this later. Mr. Wiggle's most recent post is a classic example of posting a wall of text while saying absolutely nothing. He says we need to look at lurkers and inactives, yet proposes nobody that fits that criteria. He says that we can't lynch active players, despite the fact that he voted for LSB. He summarizes our current situation and what is wrong with it, but proposes nothing specific that could get us out of it. I never mentioned not lynching active players if they seem scummy. What I was trying to do was open up discussion of how we could address some of these problems. Like you say, this is my first game, so I do not know every strategy available to us to flush out lurkers. The only thing that's holding me back from calling him guaran-fucking-teed scum is that he's a new player, and maybe doesn't know how to actually present analysis or is too afraid to have an opinion. However, he falls back on the "I'm a new guy" position enough that it raises my suspicion even more. If this were on anybody who had played at least one game of mafia, I would have absolutely 0 doubt that Wiggles is red. As it is I feel much more comfortable about this than with any players actually contributing, so my vote is on Wiggles for now. This is actually what I'm talking about in my last post. You targeted me for analysis. Why? Because I have actually posted in this thread and given something to you to work with. We need to get more players doing that, so we can turn the analysis on them too. Now as for my switch of votes to LSB. I regret that now, and almost feel I should not have changed it. I was pressured by Pandain when I voted for Brockett, and he was pushing for me to vote LSB. I changed because looking back after being prompted by Pandain, it seemed that he had been very inconsistent in his defence, and insubstantial.I wasn't completely sure what he was, but his erratic post content convinced me he mightn't have been good for the town, and the annul/LSB argument would continue and stop us from discussing anything else. Here is the full PM chain with Pandain: + Show Spoiler + To: Pandain [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: ah Date: 12/29/10 11:06 I think I may change my vote. LSB seems to be very inconsistent with what he has been saying, and that is a cause for concern. He seems too self-contradictory and insubstantial. I'm still not sure if he's a confirmed red or not, but I don't know if keeping him will help out that much, just on the basis of his posting this game, unless he does turn out to be blue. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: i would've preffered d_3 being lynched, but since brockett is the only other option, and that is obviously a bandwagon, its LSB. see my long analysis for reasons why ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: That's what I don't like about voting brockett, because he could be a lurking mafia, but he could also be an inactive green. My question is, what do we do with the information we get from LSB's lynching? 1. He's green, he's a liar, w/e 2. He's red. We should check into Insanious, for his defence of LSB. Trust annul more. 3. He's blue. This is what I'm worried about. If he turns up blue, and we lynched him, it's going to immediately throw several people under suspicion, including you and annul, and cause a lot of chaos. This is the worst case scenario. I'm not above changing my vote, but what can you show me that can convince me that LSB is beyond a doubt red? Most of the votes against him are based on annul's gut feeling and a bandwagon. LSB's defense of himself wasn't that great, but neither were annul's replies to his defense. I almost think that they're both town. Why do you think so much that LSB is red, that you won't risk keeping him one more day? ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: he won't. Cause he's an inactive, not a lurker. And him not showing up just helps prove that. Furthormore LSB has refused to share his plan when really no one, and i mean no one, can think of what this could be. We don't even see what his role would be or what he would do. Voting brockett is horrible because it's basically, as someone said, abstaining. He's inactive, not a lurker. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Mr. Wiggles: I'm not entirely convinced about the whole annul vs. LSB deal. LSB has come off a little scummy, but I'm not sure if he is mafia or not. I'm also slightly suspicious of annul, because of how aggressive he is against LSB, and how he's latched on and just won't let go in any way. I'm not sure if that's how he plays or if something's up. In the end I'd rather not vote for LSB or for annul today. I'm also interested to see what LSB's "proof" is. If it's nothing convincing I'm voting him next, unless something else kills him before then. So I'm voting brockett as a third choice, unless he shows up soon and does something to warrant a change. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: why vote brockett TL;DR version for those too lazy to read (shame on you): Wiggles has been carefully avoiding any kind of limelight, is wishy-washy on who he votes, and posts without actually contributing anything. Seriously, this is fish-in-a-barrel level of easy. If I've been carefully avoiding any kind of limelight, my defense is going to put me in it now. I've been talked about since the game began with Pandain's voting of me, and then in analysis of LSB his posts pertaining to that were mentioned quite a bit. I have not really been voting all over the place, a OMGUS vote for pandain, then a placeholder vote on myself until the LSB and Brockett votes. I maybe should not have switched, but in reality it didn't change the results, and apparently only served to bring attention down on myself, which does not fit in very well with "carefully avoiding any kind of limelight". I am a very indecisive person, and that will probably be my downfall. I am not afraid to have an opinion, and only wish to help the town, but am unsure how to do so. So here's what I think: We need to look closely at Pandain. It seems he is pressuring many different people on many different votes, and is role fishing. We need to find out just how many people he has been doing this to, and why. Insanious and RoL should almost back off each other a bit. It looks like it might turn into another annul/LSB. Our most active players are all accusing each other of being scum because there is no one else to analyze. We need to pressure inactives. All we've been doing is looking at active and semi-active players, while anyone who wants to check the inactives is usually called out on it and the idea derailed. Besides very early in the thread, no one has really been pressuring inactives unless it's been through PM we don't know about. We have many people who've barely posted or have just made excuses, and anyone who's made an attempt to do something about it has always been disrailed or disregarded. I find this very suspicious. Thus stands my defense, I hope it satisfies you. As for my opinions, they may be wrong, and you may disagree, hell, you might even agree with them, but the point is I've been accused of not taking a stance on anything, so there it is, enjoy. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On December 31 2010 04:42 Mr.Zergling wrote: + Show Spoiler + ~snip + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 07:43 annul wrote: i do not play this game RNG. if this game was entirely RNG then what is the point of playing at all, of analysis, etc? i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. Granted annul's analysis can make sense, and I initially agreed with it, I did not agree with his conclusions of LSB being mafia based on spamminess and some advice he gave. I don't think there is strong enough a case to take out LSB now, and annul's tunneling of him and his aggression hasn't really done much to sway my own opinion. I think we should find someone else to lynch right now, and come back to LSB if he cannot "prove beyond a reasonable doubt" that he is blue once day 2 starts. Other people we may want to consider: Seraph based on RoL's analysis. Brocket based on the strategy of going for lurkers day 1 I'm also not sure what to think of pandain right now based on his recent posts pertaining to the LSB and annul situation. (I'm not sure why, but my [ blue ] tag quit working here) Ah, finally, a clear opinion is reached. Wiggles decides that the whole annul v LSB thing is bull (though he says he agreed with annul's analysis though he never indicated as such earlier). He mentions Seraph and Brocket (candidates put forth by other people), but doesn't reach any clear conclusion regarding who to lynch in this post. Eventually, he ends up moving his vote to Brocket as the last person on that bandwagon. BUT THEN: after voting Brocket, he switches his vote to LSB just before the lynch ends with literally nothing backing it up. Why the hell did he switch to LSB 18 minutes before the vote ended when he thought LSB was town? Why did he switch from Brocket who fit what he was looking for? So many questions, so little answers.[/blue] I will explain this later. ~snip~ Explain Now Please[/QUOTE] You would have seen the explanation if you had read through the full post. I was pressured by Pandain, and looking back, a lot of LSB's posts seemed to be either inconsistent or insubstantial, so I wasn't sure how much it would help town if he was still around with annul. We wouldn't be generating any new discussion, we would still be stuck on the LSB/annul argument. That was my reasoning at the time. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
21. Ryuu314/DarthThienAn + Show Spoiler + Ryuu314's first real post in the game: On December 28 2010 11:36 Ryuu314 wrote: I'll be afk for a good bit of time because I'll be flying back the NA from Asia so I'll do some of my noobie analysis (first game woot!) here for the time being. While the debate between annul and LSB is interesting and they both have quite a few scum posts, I'd go so far as to say that their debate is very non-argumentative. At times in their debate it seems as though they're really arguing about nothing since the debate jumped from whether or not voting inactives was the proper move to do on Day 1. They both more or less agree. Then the debate goes into DT strategy. Again, it still all seems very non-argumentative as at this point in the game, DT strat is pretty pointless as checks will all be more or less random and luck-based. TBH all it really seems like to me is just a bunch of dancing. Granted, it stimulates discussion straight off the bat, but I really don't believe it merits enough to vote for them. As such, I'm going to change my vote to one of the inactives who have yet to post. He says he'll be afk. He then provides his opinion on the LSB/annul debate. He says it does not look very argumentative to him, and does not take a hard stance against either of them. He instead opts to pressure vote inactives. + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 18:55 Ryuu314 wrote: Threats? :O Seems scummy. I have to agree with Node on his analysis on Pandain. Before I changed my previous vote from Pandain to why, who was at that time an inactive, Pandain PM'd me asking me why I voted him. Now, it was probably just a little nudge to see why I was voting the way I am and likely fueled by curiosity as anything. Still, after going through all his posts he seems quite too wishy-washy to me. Add to the fact that he hasn't posted anything for quite some time makes me wonder. Notes his suspicion of Pandain, but does not take a hard stance against him. + Show Spoiler + On December 30 2010 04:34 Ryuu314 wrote: Me. But I think that might've been out of curiosity/panic than anything. The bandwagon on him was rather fast and (almost) unjustified. Shows regret at having jumped on the bandwagon against Pandain at the beginning of the game. + Show Spoiler + Until this point, Ryuu's voting matches what he's been saying. He jumped on the bandwagon against Pandain, which he later said was almost unjustified, then voted for why, an inactive. He did not change his vote again before the day 1 lynch. This is where DarthThienAn comes in: + Show Spoiler + On December 31 2010 11:21 DarthThienAn wrote: someone fill me in imo imo imo On January 01 2011 03:01 DarthThienAn wrote: so, from what I've read on this last page, seraph and mr. zergling are suspected to be mafia? and the analysis doesnt look bad, esp. the one on zergling. also, TheMango is definitely red. Look at his name ^^; Jokes and a restatement of what's been happening, nothing substantial. He has also not voted for the day 2 lynch yet. Result: Inconclusive. Ryuu has not posted anything that seems particularly incriminating to me. DarthThienAn has only been in the game for a short while, and has only posted twice. He played Salem Mafia, where he was town, and his posts there where characterized by short one liners until later in the game it seems. What he is doing now is not out of character with that. I'd like to see DarthThienAn start posting more though, so we can get a better read on him. What are your guys' thoughts? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
EBWOP: On January 01 2011 07:37 Mr. Wiggles wrote: As per pandain's suggestion, my analysis of: 29. Ryuu314/DarthThienAn | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On January 02 2011 14:19 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: WHAT DID I DO? I`m actually curious to see what he meant too haha. Also, the night results are going to be interesting to say the least, and will give us enough information to confidently come up with targets for the double lynch, on top of the suspicions we already may have. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On January 03 2011 05:51 ShoCkeyy wrote: He has gotten out of two day lynches some how and I'm still confused as to how you guys are not noticing this at all. I'm not sure about this, he was never really a serious candidate for lynching either day. Day 1 was a bandwagon on him that was a knee-jerk reaction to his pressure voting, and day 2 there weren't really any votes on him. Of course people have always been pointing fingers at him, but that's to be expected of anyone who's semi-active. If I recall correctly, it was pandain who was pushing for annul instead of Orgolove before the vote switch. At the moment, I'm convinced he's town. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Wouldn't it make more sense that: Opz hits RoL Mafia hits RoL and Node RoL takes two hits, dies. Unless there's another vigi, or hits that aren't accounted for due to medics. I'm not sure how the mafia would know that RoL was a veteran and hit him twice, nor can I see a reason they'd want to stack hits unless they were sure he was going to get medic protected, they don't have much KP to spare it seems like with two members dead already. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Also, why does Opz need protection, I though vig only got 1 shot? On December 23 2010 11:48 flamewheel wrote: Vigilante You may, only once during the game, kill a player of your choice during the night. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Mr. Wiggles
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Excerpt from the logs: + Show Spoiler + [17:43] <Pandain> what do you think about claiming to opz? [17:43] <LunarDestiny_> I really want him to join the chat channel and prove that he is capable of doing analysis without someone's help [17:44] <barry> opz is fine if he can not share it with others [17:44] <LunarDestiny_> i'll claim to opz since mafia won't take the risk of fake claiming [17:44] <LunarDestiny_> but i am afraid opz will leak information [17:45] <LunarDestiny_> and I don't think opz will be active and will be able to coordinate town [17:45] <barry> would rather pandain coordinated indeed [17:46] <Pandain> the problem is I'm not confirmed yet [17:46] <barry> u sorta are [17:46] <barry> annul raged on you [17:47] <Pandain> it could be epic mafia set up [17:49] <barry> yeah... [17:49] <barry> and you also suggested killing annul... [17:49] <barry> if you want to wifom the shit out of everything you can, but... [17:49] <Pandain> Just saying to be safe [17:50] <MrWiggles> Who would think of a mafia who would kill his own godfather? It's the perfect plan =P [17:50] <Pandain> I'll take anything I get cause I love feeling powerful/in control but just saying it would actually(well might) be dumb to claim to me [17:51] <Pandain> (hint hint claim to me XD) [17:51] <MrWiggles> Even people who claim can't *really* be trusted except for some who can prove what they are and be verified, otherwise we need to wait on Dt checks, right? [17:52] <barry> and with framer not even then ^^ [17:52] <barry> its only interesting if pandain can coordinate some medic action [17:52] <MrWiggles> Well if they come back blue or green they are that haha He says he can be trusted, but also warns against just blindly claiming to him, because he *could* still be mafia, just like anyone unconfirmed. In my opinion, people should claim to Opz as it seems he is confirmed. If however many DTs claim to him than there could be if pandain was too, we know something's up with people claiming DT. But otherwise, we can start some kind of coordination as far as medic protection or maybe even hatter bombs go within that town circle. Then you can just add more people in as DT checks come in. I'm just not sure how you can verify if a DT is telling the truth with the framer around unless you've already been in contact with them and know what they've been doing all game. Too easy to get contradictory returns from different DTs unless they happened to check the same person on the same night, then they should have returned the same result. For example, a mafia could claim DT, and then say one of his scumbuddies is checked town, and even if a real dt checked them different, if it was on a different night they could put the blame on the framer screwing the results. So unless we have all DTs claiming to the same person (Opz if he is town), and cross-checking their results, we won't be able to differentiate real DTs from fake ones. Or am I being dumb, and there's no way you could forge DT results and pose as one? :p | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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On January 06 2011 05:55 TheMango wrote: sorry, probably should take this to a PM, but since you answered here... So what strategic value would there be for mafia to kill each other? They could pretend one of them was vig I guess and start a town circle. No other vig would claim the kill if they didn't make it probably. That could be clever. Or incredibly stupid haha. | ||
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 ), so I haven't been able to post yet. I had an initial gut reaction to last night's red kills, but decided to wait until today to post, after mulling it over for a while.The night-kills suggest to me that mafia is trying to make Barundar and Pandain look red to town. Mafia so far have seemed to be killing: A) Active players who are contributing "actual" content and discussion in the post. B) Experienced players who have played games of Mafia before. As far as I can tell, every player killed so far fits this criteria. Barundar and Pandain fit this criteria as well. They both have been very active, contributing, and have played several games of Mafia in the past. This has unsurprisingly led people to ask why they are not being targeted by mafia kp. Are these two really mafia? What is happening? Why aren't they dying? I believe there could be several reasons for this. Firstly, Barundar and Pandain have been actively posting throughout the entire thread. Pandain has role-claimed DT as well. This could lead mafia to believe that they are likely candidates to attract medic protection, and as such they have chosen to hit other people who fit their criteria, but who have not been as outspoken for as long a period of time, and are less likely to attract the medic. As well, both of these players have had suspicions laid against them, and have been fingered as mafia. By targeting other active experienced players and leaving these two alive, suspicions against them have risen with each day and night which passes. Mafia has yet to kill a blue themselves. (Good aim, huh?). So perhaps they see that some people are eager to lynch Pandain and Barundar, and are maybe pushing it themselves, hoping to accomplish their deaths through town lynch, enabling them to hit other targets throughout the night. If these two were mafia, why would they target other experienced and active players only, and not mix in some newbs or semi-actives. By doing what they have been doing, it is far to easy to separate Pandain and Barundar from the rest of the players and call them out for surviving, which would seem to be a stupid move for mafia, to make themselves easily visible. From my PM's, irc, and what has been posted in this thread, I am of the personal belief that Barundar and Pandain are town. However, that is no reason to trust them, nor anyone else for that matter, including myself, so take all posts with a grain of salt. This is why it is of the utmost importance to town that someone claims vig in a post, if they are the one who committed the extra kp night 2, and know Opz is lying about his role-claim. Otherwise, and this seems more likely considering the lack of a counter-claim still, Opz is a confirmed townie, and people should role-claim to him. People should also post in thread if they are role-blocked. Mafia knows who they role-blocked, the town does not. This would also help us determine if people claiming to have been role-blocked (like Pandain) are lying or not if we get conflicting reports. If DT's are hesitant to role-claim to Opz, they should get someone they've confirmed as town, (at least one person should've come up green by this point I would hope), to talk to Opz for them and be their PM mouth. We need to form unity as a town, and get some kind of confirmed circle started if we want to start scum-hunting more effectively. The dwindling discussion is also concerning. As more active players are being killed, there is less posts in the thread. So hopefully this post provides at least something for people to talk about. These are my opinions, anyways. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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I looked through some of Seraph's posts, and he seems to be active, though I couldn't do more than skim through them (there's a lot), he seems to actually give his opinion on things. Then I looked at Shockeyy, and he has contributed nothing to discussion from what I can see. He has given no opinions, no analysis, and has done nothing besides tunnel Pandain. If anything, these votes on him will hopefully provoke him to become more active and start contributing. Those are the reasons for my vote, what about for everyone else? Let's get some discussion so we can get some info from the votes for the night and next day. | ||
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On January 08 2011 11:42 Jackal58 wrote: Everybody should vote for Pandain. Then why are you voting Seraph? I really hope there aren't going to be 3 modkills, that is really gonna speed up the game. | ||
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On January 09 2011 07:44 ~OpZ~ wrote: I don't know. You don't read a confirmed townies posts? I'm just wondering what the reasoning or logic is behind it. What is the proof that he fake-claimed it? Without giving any specifics, do you have a solid reason for believing he lied, as in actual evidence, not just a hunch? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
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Well gg, I enjoyed my first game, I'll probably be back for more haha. Mafia really sucks at blue-sniping  . | ||
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