EPTTL Mafia XXXV - Page 2
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
I will show you that firstly, Mr.Zergling plays different than his last game as town in HP mafia, and secondly he cannot be a blue role. First, notice these posts, some of his first posts with content (my comments are in bold): + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 11:39 Mr.Zergling wrote: My vote has gone to LSB, as his responses to annul's analysis have been weak. However, from HP mafia, LSB seems to always act somewhat scummy (which is why he got lynched last game). Also deconduo's analysis gives some convincing reasons to lynch LSB (for instance: that recommending abstaining from voting is not a pro-town suggestion (also abstaining is against the rules)) Although, no day 1 lynch is ever clear, more of a shot in the dark than anything (((I love parenthesis))) Wishy washy post. Every argument has a counter argument. On December 29 2010 12:10 Mr.Zergling wrote: mmm This does have me suspicious of Paindain, but would a mafia really be that overt and outspoken about lynching a blue, or would they try and lay low so they are not associated with the impending mess when the target flips blue? Now though, we can look at all previous analysis in a new light Again he won't point fingers without being back and forth. The last line is just filler. Now compare that to his first posts in HP mafia as town: + Show Spoiler + On December 11 2010 12:14 Mr.Zergling wrote: I think LSB is making himself suspicious by proposing a 1st kill voting style that can be easily manipulated He has no problem pointing out what he finds suspecious about other players, without adding a "but maybe it's not". On December 12 2010 15:19 Mr.Zergling wrote: Why does it matter when meapak says he's gonna have votes on first lynch? Again, straight up posting. On December 14 2010 10:36 Mr.Zergling wrote: 1)Ummm...Breadcrumb? fill a noob in please 2) I think there was more than one town-hit that went down as Beneather was being considered as suspected scum by some players, and the mafia wouldn't really want to kill a suspected scum as a suspected scum can draw attention away from real scum Asks for advice, but post his thoughts without fear of them being wrong (and indeed he was right) Compare that to his general posting patterns on the forum: + Show Spoiler + I think randoms don't really have that much of an advantage because their race is not shown. Whatever advantage that may give is negated by them probably not being as good with the race they get as someone who mains one race. Edit: lol beat me to it. Gives opinion in the same way as when he was playing green in HPmafia. On December 10 2010 09:56 Mr.Zergling wrote: Considering whats been said already, if you have early game ff issues, I find running a small group of zerglings and/or banelings close to their army to make them panic and throw down a lot of ff is fairly effective, repeat until there is no more sentry energy left Another straight up opinion The posts from this game are much more unclear than his general posting habbits. That made me suspicious of him. For now it's enough to conclude that he has a role in this game. People don’t arbitrary change their posting style from one day to another. He tuned up the frequency when attention was switched to him. DrH wrote: + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 13:16 DoctorHelvetica wrote: i believe mr zergling is mafia, in fact i have since his very first few hosts he would be a good dt check as well as seraph and insanious ill reanalyse things when i get home. also why can noone spell "pandain" On December 30 2010 07:19 DoctorHelvetica wrote: We don't need to be discussing who to lynch until tomorrow. I think silence is the best policy during the night, don't give the mafia information with which they can better their hit list with. That being said I agree with a lot of Pandain's suspects. Mr.Zergling is probably mafia. I wouldn't be surprised if Mr.Wiggles was either. Before those posts, he had posted 11 times. While I wouldn’t read too much into this, the posting amount has increased by 16 since, possibly enhanched by me sharing my thoughts with the wrong people in PM’s. What’s interesting is however when he got called out for lurking in HP mafia, he simply posted + Show Spoiler + On December 12 2010 01:44 Mr.Zergling wrote: I've only posted once, because I right now feel there is nothing to add to this discussion. So far we can conclude that his posting behaviour is different from last game as town. This could either be because he is blue or red. Characteristic for blues are they will try and blend in, contributing without getting attention to themselves. Characteristic for red is they will want to appear to be contributing, without actually adding anything. With that in mind, let’s look at how much he is actually contributing. Own thoughts posts: + Show Spoiler + On December 27 2010 12:43 Mr.Zergling wrote: we should lynch inactives, if only to prevent the "paindain" disaster like what happened in HP mafia were we lynched a townie and one vote could have changed it This is good advice, but it follows straight after Pandain said the same thing, and LSB starts questioning Mr.Wiggles of his thoughts on it. On December 31 2010 11:44 Mr.Zergling wrote: I think a double lynch is a bad idea at this point, as we only have two of them for the whole game, and still don't have a clear first lynch target, much less second. I think annul is being a bit hasty in voting for double lynch Again not bad, but it follows straight after I posted On December 31 2010 05:56 Barundar wrote: Anyone else with thoughts on option for double lynch? I personally think it's too early yet, atleast untill we get a better idea of targets for today. ... and annul votes without providing a reason. He doesn’t add anything to this.On December 29 2010 15:43 Mr.Zergling wrote: Thinks of possible scenarios, but it’s based on faulty logic. Only the mafia knew LSB was innocent for sure. Notice the blatant contradiction in the last line. He voted away from LSB himself, does that mean we should look at him more trustworthy? Nothing is gained from the post overall, except: “he thinks pandain is suspicious” I am interested in why Pandain went from defending LSB (quite vehemently) to pushing strongly to lynch LSB, I suppose the role claim (which was never really clear) could have affected his view of LSB. Two scenarios: Pandain is blue: The unclear roleclaim threw him off and he decided that even though LSB had said he would prove his blueness, Pandain just wanted info (stated) -or- Pandain is red: He saw the bandwagon shifting to his possible scumbuddy Brocket, and decided that it wouldn't be too suspicious if he shifted the bandwagon back on to LSB by touting an "info lynch". Also making himself more trustworthy by saying that everyone who voted LSB should be under suspicion (which they should) On December 30 2010 13:02 Mr.Zergling wrote: Also added to my response a couple posts up: If you do have strong opinions on day 1 without an obvious scumslip, thats just an awful playstyle, especially if you change strong opinions every couple hours This adds nothing. He quote other people’s reasons, instead of giving his own, when voting: + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 09:24 Mr.Zergling wrote: This is a good enough reason for me to change my vote to brocket. Also, on my lurking, I often don't feel the need to post if I fell I do not have anything to contribute to analysis. This is especially compounded by this being the first day. + Show Spoiler + Instead of giving reasons he quote others. Because of this, and since he doesn’t contribute, we can rule out blue. This leaves only the possibility of a mafia. With this in mind, let’s try and have a look through some of his individual posts. We are looking for hints that support our conclusion based on the posting analysis above. Brings up that he likes to lurk, even though noone said he was lurking:+ Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 09:24 Mr.Zergling wrote: This is a good enough reason for me to change my vote to brocket. Also, on my lurking, I often don't feel the need to post if I fell I do not have anything to contribute to analysis. This is especially compounded by this being the first day. There is talk about lurking, and other names are mentioned, but his isn’t. Why does he feel the need to defend himself without being accused? Because mafia feel inherently guilty, and wants to defend themselves before a suspicion is even raised. In HP mafia he wrote the same: + Show Spoiler + On December 12 2010 01:44 Mr.Zergling wrote: I've only posted once, because I right now feel there is nothing to add to this discussion. The time incident+ Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 10:27 Mr.Zergling wrote: I fail at 12/24hr conversion.........my bad Also PM from paindain: why are you voting brockett tell me here in your own words why What is the relevance of the PM in this context? If he really wants to save LSB he should be relieved it isn’t over? Instead the PM make it sound like there is mafia trying to save LSB, and that we actually should continue lynching him. All it really is, is a diversion. Illogical voting/scumhunting: + Show Spoiler + On December 31 2010 05:08 Mr.Zergling wrote: I thought his last 18min switch to LSB was strange, but thats been noted. I think I am changing to Orgo after reading GGQ's analysis, but I think Ill give him time to respond before i change my vote again Mafia knows that vote switching draws attention. Yesterday he switched away from LSB to Brocket, but why would he be caught lynching a blue? Now he recognises his vote is based on wrong reasons, but doesn’t switch it. If he was scumhunting, he would want to pressure orgolove into posting by voting for him. It doesn’t make sense to state beforehand, that you are going to vote for him after he posts. There is no rationale for this, apart from a mafia’s fear of suspicious voting. Empty fingerpointing:+ Show Spoiler + Insanious, annul, Mepeak arguing just to throw us off? Sounds like a plausible way for reds to be able to deny association if someone gets lynched and flips red. This is distracting us from real scumhunting and making people feel like they need to jump on one bandwagon, thus fracturing the Town, and allowing the mafia to more or less control our lynch  The first part of this post is not bad, if it had been to lead the town into more fruitful discussions. But the last sentence is out of context. It is a barely hidden mafia gloat post about yesterday, and it serves no purpose here but as a filler. And finaly: + Show Spoiler + On December 31 2010 15:26 Mr.Zergling wrote: Hey, if the trivia is random, then why include it? Non-Relevant trivia has no place in scumhunting, unless you are trying to FoS someone in a subtle manner. The fact is this "Non-Relevant Trivia" could cause some players to be suspicous in other player's minds. This is an FoS. Why do this when it makes you look incredibly scummy? This post looks very different from all the rest of Mr.Zergling’s posting. It’s sharp, direct, suggests he is scumhunting, and it is intelligent. No more wishy washy tone like in this game, or statement of opinions like in HPmafia. Compare it to this other post: On December 29 2010 12:27 Mr.Zergling wrote: I was trying to say something more along the lines of: Some people are suspicious of paindain (myself included), but we cannot tell if he is scum based on what we think scum would do. This all sounds better in my head. Is there any doubt these posts are not written by the same person? Conclusion: Mr.Zerglings posting behaviour differs from his last game as town. He has added little to none individual contribution to the thread, and we can therefore rule out blue. This leaves only mafia. Lynch Mr.Zergling | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On January 01 2011 21:33 annul wrote: what is the difference between using IRC logs and using "PM logs?" PM logs are just as forgeable and people accept them all the time No matter what you are derailing us by discussing it. Orgolove I would really like to get some opinions from you on tonights lynch? | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
7. Mr.Zergling-dumb townie + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 11:39 Mr.Zergling wrote: My vote has gone to LSB, as his responses to annul's analysis have been weak. However, from HP mafia, LSB seems to always act somewhat scummy (which is why he got lynched last game). Also deconduo's analysis gives some convincing reasons to lynch LSB (for instance: that recommending abstaining from voting is not a pro-town suggestion (also abstaining is against the rules)) Although, no day 1 lynch is ever clear, more of a shot in the dark than anything (((I love parenthesis))) This post is very unsure to me. First I note it contradicts his first post about lynching inactives, and if he's unsure about LSB, why lynch him already. Very suspicious to me. On December 29 2010 09:24 Mr.Zergling wrote: This is a good enough reason for me to change my vote to brocket. Also, on my lurking, I often don't feel the need to post if I fell I do not have anything to contribute to analysis. This is especially compounded by this being the first day. Says he's going to vote people because of what other people said, without giving his own reasons. Furthormore does the guilt scum tell, where he has to explain himself for his lurking. It doesn't prove anything yet, but I'm noting it. On December 29 2010 10:02 Mr.Zergling wrote: But, he has offered to prove that he is indeed a blue role by night 2, thus if he can not satisfactorily prove that, he dies. repeats what others has said, doesn't really give anything new. This is especially suspicious. He's acting like he failed him, also that he knows that LSB is blue, but he hasn't been contributing. He says he contributes if he feels he can, and this post indicates that, but why isn't he doing anything. Also note this is two hours before lsb got lynched, and before and after mr. zergling will not contribute more. On December 29 2010 12:10 Mr.Zergling wrote: mmm This does have me suspicious of Paindain, but would a mafia really be that overt and outspoken about lynching a blue, or would they try and lay low so they are not associated with the impending mess when the target flips blue? Now though, we can look at all previous analysis in a new light Does a very common tell, saying "oh look, now we can analyze stuff!" without analyzing it themselves. On December 29 2010 15:43 Mr.Zergling wrote: I am interested in why Pandain went from defending LSB (quite vehemently) to pushing strongly to lynch LSB, I suppose the role claim (which was never really clear) could have affected his view of LSB. Two scenarios: Pandain is blue: The unclear roleclaim threw him off and he decided that even though LSB had said he would prove his blueness, Pandain just wanted info (stated) -or- Pandain is red: He saw the bandwagon shifting to his possible scumbuddy Brocket, and decided that it wouldn't be too suspicious if he shifted the bandwagon back on to LSB by touting an "info lynch". Also making himself more trustworthy by saying that everyone who voted LSB should be under suspicion (which they should) First I find it interesting that he only said pandain is blue or red. I had breadcrumbed that I Was DT early on(im not though), just to lead mafia off. Maybe they had caught on to that? But regardless of that, the fact he only laid out the two scenarios without commenting on it is very suspicious to me. On December 30 2010 12:56 Mr.Zergling wrote: Hard to have strong opinions on day 1. I really am terrible at 12/24hr conversions (said voting ended at 19:00 PST, I converted that in my head to 5:00 PST, fail on my part). I did believe that LSB was blue, as he said he could show it by night 2. First, just because he said that doesn't mean that you should've believed that he was blue, merely been content to wait. Still not giving his own opinions.Common trend so far. On December 30 2010 15:16 Mr.Zergling wrote: Insanious, annul, Mepeak arguing just to throw us off? Sounds like a plausible way for reds to be able to deny association if someone gets lynched and flips red. This is distracting us from real scumhunting and making people feel like they need to jump on one bandwagon, thus fracturing the Town, and allowing the mafia to more or less control our lynch Again suspicious, saying "we need to be scum hunting" but not scum hunting at all. On December 31 2010 05:08 Mr.Zergling wrote: I thought his last 18min switch to LSB was strange, but thats been noted. I think I am changing to Orgo after reading GGQ's analysis, but I think Ill give him time to respond before i change my vote again Orgo never responded, yet mr zergling later votes wiggles without really giving reasons why. On December 31 2010 15:28 Mr.Zergling wrote: ^^Also, Major FoS on Meapak now Doesn't say why. So right now I feel that he is either mafia or a dumb townie. So now I'm going to go into his previous games. After looking into HArry potter, he's posting pretty much the same, and he was part of a confirmed circle. Furthormore he also said he doesn't contribute until he feels he can. So right now, I'm saying he's just a dumb townie. You just spend a whole post saying he is suspecious, but you reach the conclusion he is innocent just with a reference to HPmafia? I wrote why he is not playing the same as in HPmafia in my analysis, in that game there was no wishy washy posting. Also he was way less active, but he wasn't dump in that game. As I wrote in my post he was right about several things, he picked out LSB's fishy major proposal, and he picked Beneather was not a mafia hit. How is that dumb? | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
I’m now convinced Pandain is town. We decided to hold off on Mr.Zergling, at least for tonight, and instead push for Orgolove. His only contribution to the thread is his vote for double lynch. Annul is a top suspect. He hasn’t added anything apart from getting LSB lynched, and has now gone into lurking. That said, we should ##vote double lynch for tomorrow. With the knowledge we get from the lynch and the night hits, we should be able to get 2 kills by then. Also it’s an insurance if Orgolove turns out not to be red, since we will need the extra KP. Please go ahead and join us on IRC  | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Therefore I’m going to switch my vote to annul. If he was town he would try and improve from his mistake on LSB, and try to come back in the game. Now he seems like he doesn’t care, and just lurks. This leads me to think he is a mafia who just want to get rid of the attention. | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On January 02 2011 06:00 Mr.Zergling wrote: The lack of defense for him could be that he is red, and none of the mafia want to be associated with him if/when he flips red So what do you think of annul? | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Annul, RebirthofLegend, Mr.Zergling and OpZ, Im undecided on the last 2, but mango is a good guess. I'm openly working with Pandain, and I have no problem hiding it. I trust him 100 % to be town. Tonight we should aim for annul. This should make the rest of them more discendable. | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
Town alligned people didn't need to go into hiding beceause of a failed lynch. Only mafia did. | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
THIS game though, i gave the town what it needed: activity. otherwise it would devolve into a normal TL mafia town with a bunch of nothing happening. i got shit moving, even if i was wrong in the end. if i were red i should just let town self-implode like it tends to do, yes? i decided to actually, you know, play the game. and hope others followed along. You didn't give it any activity. You distrubted day 1, and then you went into hiding. On January 02 2011 07:53 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: alright, after my hiatus from activity I will return. First off I know we only have 4 hours left for voting so I am going to say this. Everyone vote annul I will explain my reasoning in a post within the next hour but it is important that anyone on now starts voting for him. I will begin my analysis shortly. I would like to take this opportunity to thank RoL for confirming my suspicions. He is not a blue. He is the godfather. Since mafia has given up on annul, this means we get to lynch red tonight. | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On January 02 2011 12:01 annul wrote: grats on the equivalent of a day 1 and 2 red lynch. how lucky Thank you . Pandain deserves the credit though. Your mistake was you let town settle down and start having discussions amongst themselves without mafia interference. Made it too easy to find people to trust. | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
 | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
On January 02 2011 12:12 annul wrote: i really cant win when my teammate doesnt care enough to vote for anyone other than himself and/or vote at all. its utterly ridiculous. it ruins games. we would probably play on if we were only down one. but two? Argh don't concede please. Still need to find 2 of you | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
RoL is our second kill tomorrow (if a vigi doesn't take him down first). I will post a more thorough analysis of why I suspected him later, but the actions by him and annul during the last few hours should be pretty self explanatory. DT's there is a number of people I'm unsure of. Will post who tomorrow, but TheMango and Tree.Hugger is topping the list. weee | ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
This is more of a statement of why I suspected RoL in the first place than a proper analysis. For a real analysis see http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=179009¤tpage=44#870. I put a lot of time and effort into that. First let’s start out with some basic facts on RoL: First class player, awesome scumhunter and a veteran of TL mafia. For this reason he rarely sees day 2. Examples: HPmafia: Mafia learns RoL is a vet, and decides to spend two their night vigi hit on him as well as a normal hit night one. Pokemafia: RoL gets sniped within hours of substituting in to the game, before he even make his first post. ExMiMa: RoL instantly coins Aidnai, and has to be substituted out since he even picks up on DrH possibly admitting he is right. Both DrH and bumatlarge was veteran snipes. While this is admittedly an unfair shortcut, the fact that mafia leave him be on first night hit, and instead aim for a blue snipe on Deconduo, is no good for my thoughts on RoL’s alignment. Next let’s look at what he actually does on day 1. First post: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 04:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: As an addendum to the first part of this post. I don't think DrH hit it just right. Don't waste your time checking "big name" players. Since a GF is chosen you will get back a blue/green role on them pretty much no matter what. The way I play a detective role can be seen slightly in HP mafia. There were people I thought very likely to be scum, but there were two players I couldn't decide on, but was leaning towards mafia or jackass. OpZ and Orgolove. Night 1 I decided to Orgolove, but either check would of been adequate for my criteria. Usually a host RNG's the player list and makes mild adjustments for balance. The odds of a more recognized/good player getting into the mafia is increased and therefore they are likely to be the godfather. The only game where I would say the "veteran" player IMO wasn't GF was in Salem. They chose SouthRawrea over Radfield, but that could of been because of PM's and knowing where the check was going, or because radfield knew he was going to be inactive. So when you are a DT check someone who is playing aggressively/scummy and someone who you can't quite decide on their alignment. With a framer the odds are increased that you will get a bad check on a "veteran" player because they will either be godfather or framed. On that note though, the only real check we can use is a medic. If a medic protects someone and the day post is mafia KP-1 they can be almost 100% sure they protected someone good, especially if they are a "veteran" player. Anyway, I don't like making it seem like the DT role is so important which this seems like, I in fact view DT as a handicap that clouds a persons judgment. I would rather trust my behavioral analysis over DT checks any day of the week. I urge the utmost caution in using DT checks in this game, because I don't feel like having SouthRawrea 2.0 after I die and everyone becomes too stupid to realize who the leak was. Anyway, I got work in a little bit I will probably be back around 10ish. This is not the RoL I’ve seen in other games. He doesn’t need to give out good advice, he blatantly finds scum and hunt them relentless. I wrote this to DrH straight away, but my concerns actually got dismissed when he posted: + Show Spoiler + Back to pointing fingers like in other threads. Good ol’ RoL, and part of why I suspected LSB. But then: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 05:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I got my defense wrong! I have a strange idea. I think both annul and LSB might be mafia, this little tiff is exactly what annul/KJ did in ExMiMa although this is a little different. I know LSB is a better player than to attack his attacker AS mafia, its kind of an odd tell. My first thought was that he is probably town and just thought the analysis was scummy. But the analysis seems fine to me. The arguments almost feel a little forced too if you read through it. This is definitely something to keep in mind. Wooops back to being different. Suddenly changed opinion, and feel the need to publicly doubt himself? Day 1 in HPmafia he was confident lying to town that he actually found LSB to be green, while pushing for his own lynch on Aidnai behind the scene. RoL doesn’t need to publicly doubt himself. + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 05:26 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Alright so I finished catching up. I am really unsure about this whole LSB/Annul thing. But one thing I am sure about is that we CANT risk losing ANY blue role. We have no chance as winning as a town if we are throwing blues away day 1. The reason we aren't all green is because we REQUIRE blues to win. Judging by his initial claim LSB is a vigi but tried changing what he said because he didn't want to be so obvious with his claim but it doesn't matter. With a vigilante claim the mafia has a real incentive to kill him tonight to get rid of mafia KP, so we will know whether or not he is mafia in 2 days. There is NO reason to kill him now, since we can hold him off as a "sure thing" day 3 if he hasn't killed someone by then or is not dead. Now for RoL's badass analysis of the game, raping Red's day 1. Seraph A nothing post, just the pregame jovial attitude usually shown by mafia. One of my favorite little tells that a lot of people give off is format speculation early on, he is one of the first to discuss it. Seraph and LD. Although a LOT of people have done it in this game because their was a new role I think we can view this as an additional circumstance to his "mafia" behavior since a lot of people exemplify this strait. At this point he gets on the"lets lynch inactives" train and trying to figure out how to define inactives. First off I am going to say this right now. Fuck lynching inactives. It is such a stupid plan most of the time, lynching an inactive does two VERY anti town things. One it provides ZERO information because generally there is no vote split on inactives its usually a unanimous decision among the town, and on top of that since there is NO information to decide on who we are going to lynch because they are inactive the mafia have a huge influence over just which inactive guy we decide to kill. In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information. We are going to see a recurring trend with Seraph, He doesn't really ever stop talking about inactives and mod kills at all. Now one big thing to notice here, he advises against using KP and uses a TERRIBLE argument. This is a giant redflag to me. Why the hell would there be a better chance of hitting a blue then a red with a vigi hit? If we hold off our vigi hits there is a better chance the mafia will kill the vigi and we lose that KP too. That's roughly equivalent to telling mad hatters not to place bombs until night 3 because chances are they will just bomb a blue. It just chances us wasting our KP that we shouldn't be. On top of that if a vigi is doing ANY amount of behavioral analysis then they should be able to hit a god damn red by night 2 if they choose to, MAYBE hold it off until night 3. I generally would not recommend holding off your hit because it increases the chance of the town losing it. And on top of that Seraph says we have more important things to discuss then vigi's, like the day 1 lynch. Alright, I can agree with that but seriously what the fuck is there to talk about if you are lynching an inactive? Exactly, nothing. Its just basically RNG whichever person not posting the mafia approves of and unanimously killing them. Alright let me get this strait. By your agenda we should be lynching inactives and searching for them but we need to wait for people to check in day 1...? Pretty much self explanatory. So far we have seen a good amount of anti town posting from Seraph on top of a bit of spammyness. This is one of the posts I found really interesting. The pandain wagon did make no sense and Seraph says what I think he is trying to do. We can just label it wifom. At the same time he discredits Annul saying his argument is forced Then explains what forced means! But seriously, how is Annul's analysis forced? I read it, it felt pretty natural to me. Annul remains dedicated and keeps going for his lynch of LSB and LSB OMGUS him back which is a really shitty way to play and incredibly anti town. The thing is I also believe that could just be a blue tell from LSB believing his role to be important for town victory. The last thing he does is FOS on Meapak but not saying ANYTHING about why. At least give some reason. Seraph then stresses that we go back to lynching inactives while clearing up such a trivial issue between insane/haunted mafia. The running trend with Seraph is anti town play, just focusing on lynching an inactive and really not committing at ALL on the annul/LSB situation. This could be because he doesn't want to be associated with supporting a bad lynch of either of them, or not wanting to side at risk of being exposed when his ally gets lynched. With that being said, I strongly believe Seraph is mafia and we should lynch to kill him and hold off on the LSB/Annul situation because of how important blue roles are to a town victory. On top of that if/when LSB fails to prove his claim we get another free mafia kill that we can make a vigi use. LSB is claiming to be able to PROVE his alliance by night 2 and if he can't then well I am sure we can do something about that can't we? We just need to stay focused and get him killed then and not get distracted by other "better" targets. This is a great post, but there is 2 problems with it. The first problem is he advices town to hold off on killing LSB, because if LSB can’t prove he is blue, we can just lynch him later. This is solid and sound reasoning, and I was an idiot for not realising this myself. The problem is he leaves it like that. In all his posts the rest of the day, he doesn’t actually push the point: + Show Spoiler + On December 29 2010 05:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: False logic. There is a VERY good reason that LSB is not getting defended if he is mafia. Look at ExMiMa. I accused Aidnai HARD day 1 and was pushing him relentlessly waiting for other mafia to show themselves by trying to defend him. KJ/Annul kept their cool until I got replaced then slowly diverted the lynch. It is WAY too risky to try to launch a defensive or diversion campaign of a mafia on day 1, especially if you fail. On December 29 2010 06:03 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: @Opz 24 hours of conversation can change an opinion. The reason I felt their tiff was forced was because I thought LSB would be too experienced to respond in such an aggressive manner. I may have been wrong. On December 29 2010 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: As I explained a post above, I don't believe its feasible for the mafia to try to protect one of their own from such a volatile situation. It can only reveal themselves if they do it directly and it fails. Its why anyone focusing on lynching inactives or avoiding the conflict between annul/LSB should be heavily scrutinized. On December 29 2010 06:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: night 2 would not change from day 2 btw. No more actions can be done between those times, unless you mean AFTER night 2. At which point you COULD be a vigi, but if you really mean the start of night 2 you can't possibly be a vigilante, and you could also prove the same thing during the Day phase while we still have the option to lynch you! The second problem is he proposes to lynch Seraph, but he doesn’t actually push for it. This is uncharacteristic of RoL, and he knows it himself: In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information. This is my favourite contradiction of the day. He launches Seraph as a counter target, but does nothing for it. How is that consistent with his normal town play? Come day 2, he also stated On December 30 2010 18:57 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Alright. So I am tired of this town being wishwashy so much. Tomorrow before I go to work I am going to decide on a lynch target. We are going to kill them, if I am wrong you guys can kill me if you so wish it. The thing is I will chose my target, I will push them relentlessly, and I will be right. I will most likely choose one of the three mentioned before, but it is going to be large analysis followed by a relentless attack until I get my way. I see three candidates going out right now with some shitty stupid reasoning. I will examine every person being suggested right now and decide which one is best. I welcome all who oppose me. Well I waited for this. And it didn’t come. There is a few other points about his posting that I noted, but is a little harder to put clearly. First of all he gets defensive and withdraws when people question him. There is several examples of this. Secondly he tries to act like he is way too good, “ruining scums day”, when fact is he hadn’t actually done anything. Lastly, there is the whole “scumhunting with mad hatter bombs” failure. Instead of lying low, like a veteran who are most likely going to get hit, he actively scumhunts during the night by trying to place hatter bombs. This is so silly I won’t even go into it. Now, even with all of this I was still doubting my conclusion of him being red. There was a slight possibility of him being blue. But when I knew we hit the nail with annul, since Mr.Zergling came out to soft defend, he posted this: On January 02 2011 07:53 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: alright, after my hiatus from activity I will return. First off I know we only have 4 hours left for voting so I am going to say this. Everyone vote annul I will explain my reasoning in a post within the next hour but it is important that anyone on now starts voting for him. I will begin my analysis shortly. This post was all I needed to confirm my suspicions. This is the situation at the time of his writing: we got a strong case on annul, and several of us are pushing for him. 2 mafia are already exposed trying to soft defend annul (Mr.Zergling and OpZ). Time to abandon ship. Now RoL has been entirely out of the discussions since his morning post, declaring town was wishy washy and that he would pick a target to push relentlessly. This never happened. Again, the question for me is, is he blue or red. The golden rule is, blues are scared, red are hesitant. (<3) So is RoL’s sudden activity a sign of one or the other? We already provided all the shooting power to take down annul before RoL shows up, yet now he thinks is a good time to write an analysis? If he was blue all he needed to do was to agree with us, and help us indirectly by making sure people voted. Instead he decides to get attention by writing his own analysis. This all points away from scared. When annul starts attacking him openly while ignoring the rest of us, it smells like mafia trying to earn town credit! The rest of the day is history. RoL and annul stage a fight, trying to make it appear like RoL did something for the lynch, when all he did was show up late, and realise the train had left the station. | ||
| ||
