EPTdid i get here in time?
Pick Your Power Mafia 3!
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
did i get here in time? | ||
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aidnai
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that being said I don't anticipate being inactive, whenever you decide to start. I'd just hate to be stuck with a town that doesn't show up... | ||
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aidnai
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So, did we decide yet if clashing is good or bad for town? Also, LSB, why not move up day vig instead of copy cat? Unless the plan is to lose a really good role right off the bat, copy cat is probably gonna end up with something lame, right? | ||
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aidnai
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Poll: Do you intend to follow LSB's plan? No (11) Yes (6) 17 total votes Your vote: Do you intend to follow LSB's plan? | ||
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aidnai
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aidnai
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I meant regarding jimbo (LSB posting too fast). Here's the full post with quotes and everything. On January 08 2011 03:43 LSB wrote: Why wait after the draft order? Isn't that a great way for the mafia to try to assign roles they want to their own people? If we do it before the draft order comes out, we won't have to worry about the mafia influencing the plan for their own benefit. My thoughts exactly LSB. It's pretty easy to say you have something simple and effective, quite another to deliver. And, any plan presented or polished after the draft order is complete is pretty suspect. If you have something Jimbo, tell us now. | ||
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aidnai
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On January 08 2011 05:12 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Wait wait wait. We have people who are actively saying "I don't agree with this plan, but I'm going to do it anyway". What sort of nonsense is this? Don't like it, think of a different one. Tweak it for the better, something. Saying you disagree with something and its a bad idea then going along with it is what leads towns to failure. Jesus. I take it this is the post that caught your attention fishball? I have noticed a definite tendency for scum to be very critical and point out how everything happening/being done is bad for the town. But I would also kind of expect BC to be beyond that kind of tell... | ||
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aidnai
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aidnai
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Copy Cat - You start off with no powers. However once the first power role dies you get an exact copy of their role. We better not kill decon until we know where the copy cat is. According to LSB's plan, it should be amber. | ||
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aidnai
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But yeah, what are you smoking beneather? I might want to try some later... | ||
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aidnai
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aidnai
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Jimbo and Aidnai don't have to be opposite alignment because they picked the same numbers coincidentally. It's just less likely that we're both mafia, that's it. I know this is horrible, but I'm pretty wrapped up in team mini mafia at the moment. That game will be over soon though. I'm just waiting for something to happen. I got a high draft number, I may or may not have a mediocre role, there's really no reason for me to be important this game. Also, almost every alignment guess I've made in team mini mafia was probably wrong, as well as every red read I got in mafia XXXV (I was following along not playing). But tell you what, I'll do us both a favor and stop posting just to avoid a modkill. | ||
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aidnai
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aidnai
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aidnai
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You're definitely tunneling now jimbo. Just saying. I'm reading up on the thread, pigsquirrel gave an awful reason for voting me (cause i "don't care", not cause i'm scum). But the rest of his posts look good. Actually excellent for a first time player. As for lynching LayOffRage, thing is, he can be a pretty decent scumhunter, and he's active, and he claimed green. I don't see why he needs to die before we even get a read on the players in the top 8. And fishball is almost certainly not the traitor. If you guys need someone to die with a role to make sure the CC gets something not too strong, I'm your man. | ||
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aidnai
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aidnai
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aidnai
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I wonder if you would have tunneled on me if I hadn't told you not to. It's like when the Oracle told Neo not to worry about the vase, and then he turned and broke it... I'm sorry everyone, I know I should be more useful, but I just f'd up team mini mafia so comically I seriously can't be useful right now. I'll try again tomorrow. Read TMM3 for shits and giggles if you have time for some lols. | ||
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aidnai
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On January 12 2011 02:54 HaploPaithan wrote: Since layoffrage and Aidnai are our two most likely targets, why don't we lynch layoffrage and then have deconduo kill off aidnai tonight. We really need to start discussing who to use CPR on tonight. Since we seem to want to kill both these players this seems to be the best solution. Since we can't decide if any of these people are scum, let's kill them all! that way we can race towards lylo even more quickly than normal! brilliant plan. Kitaman: jimbo already found the important fact. LayOffRage's only previous game was in smurf mafia. I'm sorry to him for bringing this fact out in the open, but seriously, that much info is not hard to come by. And yes, I know who it is from playing with him in a previous game. | ||
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aidnai
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I've never played with you zeks and don't know your style, but it's time to start posting more. + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2011 10:08 zeks wrote: last time we had a plan and we still had 2 people pick traitor within the top 6 if i remember correctly On January 09 2011 07:01 zeks wrote: I randomed as well. As town we're all just as effective with or without powerful roles - its just a matter of how you use it. Besides after the draft results come out we'll still have time to figure out a better plan if need be. I actually like the PYP2 plan with the percentages and what not, just so theres not a clear cut drafting order for scum/SKs to easily exploit. I know as SK last PYP I really contemplated what to pick from that plan and it made it tougher for me. On January 09 2011 12:36 zeks wrote: I was [3][1]. On January 10 2011 08:58 zeks wrote: According to LSB's plan I'm supposed to take Tracker - and for many reasons others have listed I'm not going to follow it fully. As a cover my ass tactic I'll say that I'll be taking one of Alignment Cop, Tracker, Mason or Witch. On January 10 2011 12:50 zeks wrote: Finger of suspicion like Fishball said On January 11 2011 09:35 zeks wrote: We should be using CPR as an extra town lynch. Infact the CPR should be working with town goals and not randomly hitting people every night - so even if decon is infact scum we can still control his power or risk himself getting lynched. On January 11 2011 13:06 zeks wrote: ##abstain incase i somehow dont get to vote tomorrow day 1 pardon = no And you Jackal58, I thought you were an obvious green read in MafiaXXXV despite posting infrequently, but I haven't got the same read from you here yet. Please help us out and pick up the pace a bit. + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2011 12:03 Jackal58 wrote: Thanks man. All that would load for me this afternoon was the banner. And role confirmed. On January 09 2011 22:37 Jackal58 wrote: [6] [9] i shall attempt to stick to LSBs plan but I'm still not sure how this all works yet. On January 10 2011 23:40 Jackal58 wrote: I suspect it was due to Ace re-posting the draft order. On January 11 2011 06:13 Jackal58 wrote: I don't think we're going to find out anytime soon unless we lynch him. On January 11 2011 19:21 Jackal58 wrote: 1 of the 4 above me is the copy cat. I'm just green. On January 11 2011 19:27 Jackal58 wrote: I probably should have made this clearer. I did not get copy cat. That is the role I picked per LSBs list but I am just vanilla green. 1 of the 4 above me on the draft list is copy cat. On January 11 2011 22:53 Jackal58 wrote: ## Vote Kenpachi The worst offender so far: GGQ. Joined the game the 8th, has <6 total posts!? And all of them content free, of course. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2011 11:02 GGQ wrote: /confirm I'm not going to pretend I have the experience or mafia skill to judge any plan. If there's one being used, I'll follow it. It does seem to me that a plan is better than no plan by a large margin, though. On January 09 2011 11:40 GGQ wrote: I picked [5][3]. Low spot ftl. On January 10 2011 12:53 GGQ wrote: As Fishball said, it's a 'finger of suspicion'. It's a mafia term that you use to point out someone that you think is suspicious when you don't have the evidence to call him mafia for certain. On January 11 2011 05:02 GGQ wrote: deconduo, you said that there was a mistake and that you did, in fact, get the role you asked for. You said before the draft that you were going to pick CPR doc. Can you confirm that this is now your role, or did you random for your pick like your earlier plan? We want to keep track of CPR doc. On January 11 2011 13:03 GGQ wrote: Mafia only gets the role of their choice if they can predict what everyone chose, which may be difficult considering how many people said they weren't going to follow a role picking plan. I want to hear LayOffRage's reason for calling Fishball the traitor. Was it supposed to be a joke, or do you have some secret reasoning? We need to hear more from these people to be able to get a good read. I also am having a hard time reading haplopaithan, even though he's posted roughly twice as much as the above. | ||
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aidnai
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On January 12 2011 04:20 Fishball wrote: Huh? It's not like it's a huge secret LayOffRage is RoL. Meh, I thought it was pretty obvious myself, but if he wanted to sign up as a smurf, I figured it'd be pretty lame of me to tell everyone (I guess a lot of people didn't know). | ||
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aidnai
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Fishball, the three I just posted about have <10 posts a piece. I happen to know that LoR has spent a lot of time on mafia the past few days, between team mini mafia, merc mini mafia, and this, 48 posts is pretty damn good imo. Also, bloodyc0bbler is absolutely correct that you three are the most experienced in this game, and therefore for balance purposes are likely to not all have the same alignment. However, killing any of you for that reason alone is idiotic. It may make sense to BC because he "know's he's town", but for the rest of us it makes no sense at all. If we were to kill you and you flipped town, then what? do we kill LoR and BC as well until he hit a red? now we have no more experienced players in the game? wonderful... | ||
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aidnai
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aidnai
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I'm the witch, as assigned. If I am not lynched today, I will be able to stop a mafia night kill 100%. Of course, if I am lynched the copy cat will get this role instead. If we do follow LSB's plan for all of our other roles, I'll know which night kills are expected and which one is mafia. ^^eiii, yeah a lot of activity, but most of it was just me spamming. | ||
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aidnai
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I'm thinking over your plan LSB. Once again, we're talking about finding and exposing every single power role town has. In a normal game this is horrible, why is it good now? One last thought (trying to keep my thoughts together so I'm not always quadruple posting), we can actually use the cpr doc as a doctor on the night that I use my ability. This would be a way to confirm several of our blues while killing a lot less people. | ||
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Also On January 10 2011 13:30 LSB wrote: If you were assigned a red role and did no recieve it. Please Claim In addition, if you picked traitor and did not recieve it, please claim. 22. LSB God Father You the godfather LSB? | ||
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aidnai
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My proposed lynch is Amber[light]. Here is my case. The original post from Amber that caught my attention: On January 09 2011 05:36 Amber[LighT] wrote: Just noting I did pick a random number, and everyone should do the same. Though I don't believe the role selection process (post-draft) should be unveiled to the entire town. More importantly: Play the role you get. If you pout because you got townie and don't participate I will personally make your mafia-playing life a living hell and accuse you EVERY game in the future just because I like to be frustrating. It's actually more important for the town to fool the mafia and pick roles to limit their KP per night. Of course we cant discuss how this should go about because there are more roles in this game than players, so it would be too easy. The goal of this process should be to make the mafia as vanilla as possible, not to ensure every player gets a role they want. GL in the draft... This struck me as a possible scum post because of the tone and nature of the advice. Others may agree/disagree, and I can't explain it fully, so I'll just let you look and decide yourself. However, the other two posts below are much better evidence. On January 10 2011 22:32 Amber[LighT] wrote: I think looking into the draft numbers might be a lost cause. Don't forget that it would be in the best interest of the mafia to follow the plan. This ensures that they receive a role. I wouldn't be surprised if the more unique combination (higher ups) are mafia, but to be honest that's good player strategy to achieve a unique combination that throws them up to the top. People who have double are _less_ likely to be mafia, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't put down the same numbers to alleviate some suspicion. The draft process was too transparent, so infiltration by the mafia is highly likely. In this post, Amber is spouting a mix of nonsense and obvious truth. The nonsense: -Don't forget that it would be in the best interest of the mafia to follow the plan. This ensures that they receive a role. Actually, if town follows the plan, then mafia are free to cherry pick any roles that are further down the list than their own and still be assured of a role. -The draft process was too transparent, so infiltration by the mafia is highly likely. Transparent? Infiltration? wtf are you talking about, people picked numbers and pmed them to Ace. Obvious: - but to be honest that's good player strategy to achieve a unique combination that throws them up to the top. Duh. - People who have double are _less_ likely to be mafia, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't put down the same numbers to alleviate some suspicion. Duh, and this doesn't actually say anything one way or another. I honestly don't see any reason for posting something like this other than 1) avoiding modkill AND 2) wanting to not look scummy On January 11 2011 22:20 Amber[LighT] wrote: I think you should use your ability as a NK vs a saver ability. Think about the chances of you saving someone vs killing someone. Your ability has better usage for town KP when we want to snipe mafia members, or to ensure their death. I don't think LoR should be lynched. It's obvious who should be lynched, as we don't have any conclusive evidence of their role choice or the choice of another players: Kenpachi & Barundar He (Kenpachi) is playing scummy and defensive, which isn't all of a shock from his normal play. Chances are he probably is the copy cat. We have to weigh the possibilities that he's actually is the copy cat. Do we want him to have that power activated? I think since we've wasted time cornering the possible copy cat allowing him to obtain a usage for his role would be wasteful as he's going to be a sure-fire target for night 1, granted we accidentally list a power role today. Do we also want that power role in the hands of a mafia member? Mostly another potent mix of nonsense and obvious stuff, so I bolded everything else in this post. How did Amber already seem to pick out that kenpachi is probably CC? Seems pretty smart, especially compared to the rest of the post (suggesting CPR doc to kill people instead of save, you seriously think we needed you to tell us?) Also highly troubling here is the fact that in the prior post, Amber says mafia should follow the plan for their own good, but in this post he says kenpachi and barundar are the obvious lynch targets because they can't prove they followed the plan! If you don't believe your current lynch target is scum, don't lynch them and consider amber please. ##Vote Amber[light] | ||
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aidnai
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aidnai
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I think looking into the draft numbers might be a lost cause and wraps up with The draft process was too transparent, so infiltration by the mafia is highly likely He is most definitely saying that the draft process was infiltrated, which as I pointed out is just him spouting nonsense for no other reason than to post something and try not to look scummy. | ||
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aidnai
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Kenpachi always looks scummy and responds poorly to pressure. Easy, bad lynch. LOR's lynch is going to tell us that the traitor is in the top eight. I don't think I'm a top candidate anymore, but again that's because of 'information'. You want my analysis to be tossed aside, even though you haven't read it and "won't bother reading it." Do you realize how bad this makes you look? | ||
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On January 12 2011 10:20 aidnai wrote: We don't have "a few decent candidates". We have information lynches on people that no one seems to think are actually scum. Kenpachi always looks scummy and responds poorly to pressure. Easy, bad lynch. LOR's lynch is going to tell us that the traitor is in the top eight. I don't think I'm a top candidate anymore, but again that's because of 'information'. ... So we do have a traitor in the top eight, and we have one less possibly-red experienced player, so BC and fishball by their own reasoning are automatically more suspicious now (lol). Can we talk about amber now? | ||
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aidnai
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Additionally, i've seen no evidence of a tracker, which means we won't have any info on fishball either, and there was never any plan to check cubedin. That leaves 4 unknown roles out of 8, which seems like a lot of wiggle room. We really need kenpachi to tell us what he is and how he can prove it. I am thinking of a way for cubed to prove he is a doctor -- asking Ace right now if it's viable/legal. Which leaves jackal and fishball... Any more ideas? tracker care to claim? that would be a big help... | ||
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aidnai
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- deconduo (red) picks CC - Scum buddy further down the draft (as an example, say jackal) picks up CPR doc. - CPR doc is free to hit kenpachi, or jackal, or fishball, whichever mafia finds most beneficial - town believes they have a role confirmed, mafia just picked up another power role. The only benefit we can rely on from 'knowing' deconduo is CPR doc is that we control his KP. I'm sorry I wasn't here to bring this up earlier, but we should not have allowed Deconduo to pick for himself between three people. In future nights, I certainly hope that we make it explicit who we want targeted. On January 13 2011 05:20 deconduo wrote: Grand so, I'll zap one of Kenpachi, Jackal58, Fishball. I'm not going to announce which one however, just to stop mafia screwing me over. I was thinking that if I announce straight out which one I'm going to zap, mafia or SK could target them too so they wouldn't die. This would pretty much fuck me over tomorrow obviously. So is everyone ok with this? Actually, if mafia/SK uses their KP to screw you over, we'll have a very low KP evening which I don't have a problem with. And unless mafia has a bunch of one-time KP roles at their disposal (JOAT is the only one I can think of atm), they won't be able to frame you well because the KP count will be so low. Additionally, if they used this tactic to save on of their own, you would only be as suspicious as the person you targeted. Deconduo: just as one small thing you can do, please announce your target preferably after night actions are due and before the day post is up, if at all possible. If you think this is a bad idea, give me a chance to persuade you please. | ||
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aidnai
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On January 12 2011 15:51 aidnai wrote: Well, it's not totally applicable. RoL is dead, and kenpachi isn't the JOAT. That means deconduo's hit is freed up, but we lost our check on kenpachi and amber. As it stands, I'm gonna advocate deconduo hits amber, but I don't know what to do about kenpachi. Additionally, i've seen no evidence of a tracker, which means we won't have any info on fishball either, and there was never any plan to check cubedin. That leaves 4 unknown roles out of 8, which seems like a lot of wiggle room. We really need kenpachi to tell us what he is and how he can prove it. I am thinking of a way for cubed to prove he is a doctor -- asking Ace right now if it's viable/legal. Which leaves jackal and fishball... Any more ideas? tracker care to claim? that would be a big help... based on my analysis of amber here On January 12 2011 09:31 aidnai wrote: We're running out of time to do this, but I would like to present a lynch target based on believing they are scum, rather than based on wanting information. My proposed lynch is Amber[light]. Here is my case. The original post from Amber that caught my attention: This struck me as a possible scum post because of the tone and nature of the advice. Others may agree/disagree, and I can't explain it fully, so I'll just let you look and decide yourself. However, the other two posts below are much better evidence. In this post, Amber is spouting a mix of nonsense and obvious truth. The nonsense: -Don't forget that it would be in the best interest of the mafia to follow the plan. This ensures that they receive a role. Actually, if town follows the plan, then mafia are free to cherry pick any roles that are further down the list than their own and still be assured of a role. -The draft process was too transparent, so infiltration by the mafia is highly likely. Transparent? Infiltration? wtf are you talking about, people picked numbers and pmed them to Ace. Obvious: - but to be honest that's good player strategy to achieve a unique combination that throws them up to the top. Duh. - People who have double are _less_ likely to be mafia, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't put down the same numbers to alleviate some suspicion. Duh, and this doesn't actually say anything one way or another. I honestly don't see any reason for posting something like this other than 1) avoiding modkill AND 2) wanting to not look scummy Mostly another potent mix of nonsense and obvious stuff, so I bolded everything else in this post. How did Amber already seem to pick out that kenpachi is probably CC? Seems pretty smart, especially compared to the rest of the post (suggesting CPR doc to kill people instead of save, you seriously think we needed you to tell us?) Also highly troubling here is the fact that in the prior post, Amber says mafia should follow the plan for their own good, but in this post he says kenpachi and barundar are the obvious lynch targets because they can't prove they followed the plan! If you don't believe your current lynch target is scum, don't lynch them and consider amber please. ##Vote Amber[light] I also had another post requesting discussion of amber directly after RoL flipped. None of this pressure from me has picked up steam, and I understand that is likely because a) I myself was a major lynch target earlier yesterday, b) my timing with the analysis was poor (in my defense, I have never played a majority lynch game and didn't understand the consequences of splitting votes towards the end of the day), and c) fishball posted something that completely took the wind out of my sails, and he continued to write me off in his 'impressions of players' post. All of this made me hesitant to bring up amber yet again, although I'm really itching to hear some thoughts from other players (Bum, fishball, LSB especially) at the very least. As for deconduo's proposed targets, I would be very surprised if Jackal58 was lying (i.e. he's green), Fishball is a hard read but he's active, not behaving insane, and one of our more experienced players. If he's really town, mafia will be targeting him soon anyway, and I think killing him is a bad idea. Kenpachi I'm ambivalent, I wouldn't be surprised if he is scum or if he is town. So of the three, I'd say kenpachi, but ideally, amber.... This is mostly just posted as my thoughts, prolly too late to act now. | ||
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aidnai
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the night kills are: GGQ Barundar Divinek HaploPaithan Jackal58 I have ten minutes to pick a save. Kita (and anyone else who asked): I didn't confirm or deny earlier that I would use my role tonight because while it may have made you more comfortable, there was no real reason to tell the town and hiding intentions or plans from the mafia is a good thing. | ||
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aidnai
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I don't know which of these is scum KP, SK KP, and town KP. | ||
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aidnai
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Jackal58 I think is town, but also should be deconduo's hit which I don't want to mess up (just make us both look like scum) HaploPaithan is a decent save imo (active, level headed) Barundar is a decent save imo (high in draft, probably good role) GGQ is a lurker, don't feel like saving him. Between haplo and barundar, barundar is pretty quiet, he hasn't claimed, and is in the top 4 which is likely where our CC or traitor are. This is rushed, sorry if I'm missing something important, but I choose haplo. Letting ace know now. Sorry to any townies I couldn't save  | ||
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Godfather can only use his KP on someone who voted for him. In this game, voting stops once a majority is reached, so yeah, gonna be pretty hard to convince people to vote for kenpachi at this point. I guess we won't be able to use his KP at all then... So, with kenpachi out of the hotseat for a lynch, it's time to find a new candidate.... I've been pushing and pushing for some discussion of amber, and have been met with dead silence, so what's up with that? does my analysis suck, or was it just my bad timing? as a reminder, I pointed out a contradiction in the assumptions of two of his posts (they were consecutive). That means he either changed his mind very quickly without explaining at all, or else he didn't really believe the assumptions his posts were based on. Also, we have several inactives/lurkers that are in danger of violating the 24 rule Cubedin Zeks eiii Jimbosilvers BloodyC0bbler Cubed was more active than the rest, but the latter four have 12, 12, 16, and 17 posts in the thread respectively, including prior to game start. This just ain't enough for us to get any kind of solid read guys, please post more. | ||
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aidnai
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On January 13 2011 16:15 Eiii wrote: Sorry, it's kind of hard to get a word in edgewise around here and most of the activity happens while I'm busy during the day :X And, as was said at the time, your analysis was mostly ignored because it just looked like you were trying to save your own ass. Actually I was out of the hotseat already, Fishball thought it looked bad because of the timing, not because I was already a target. And you still didn't say anything, not a single opinion about haplo voting deconduo, or kenpachi being godfather, or the night kills, or me wanting more pressure on amber, or the other lurkers... surely if you read the thread enough to immediately notice me calling you out, you will have an opinion about something? Before I go to bed, and just to put my vote where my mouth is, ##Vote: amber[light] | ||
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BC on the other hand was awfully quiet for like three days, and now he jumps in to spam FOS's everywhere (so far kenpachi, cubed, and now LSB). | ||
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aidnai
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1) On January 11 2011 22:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote: ##vote layoffrage Heading off to work and won't be back tonight, but LoR is the safest lynch target for today. Out of myself, fishball and him we are most likely the three most experienced players, and I know i'm town, which means at least one of fishball and him is most likely red. Out of those two, LoR has given the most reasons as why he is most likely a better lynch target. By BC's own logic, we are left with a damn good chance that either BC or fishball is red, and BC has given more reasons why he's a better lynch. 2) disappears for 48 hours. As an experienced player, you're always a night kill target. If you're gonna have any effect on the game as a townie, you better get it done before the day 2 post comes up. BC had like 15 posts total before today. If you're scum though, sure, lay low as long as there's already chaos and the lynch targets are all townies (yesterday, the lynch targets were RoL and Jackal, both green). 3) resurfaces with FOS's on Kenpachi, Cubed, and LSB. It looks to me like BC is just throwing out enough accusations to see what sticks so town will be occupied with deciding to lynch either a town GF, a likely town doctor, or our town leader. Although I will readily admit that ken picking godfather is weird, and it's possible he saved JOAT for a scum further down the draft. And cubed I was suspicious of before today, but less so after his claim. 4) He picked godfather?! this role is much more useful to scum than town (because of alignment checks), so um, why pick it over something like doctor? if you are thinking you won't live long, why not hider or bulletproof or vet? or a one time use like witch? or if you want to deny scum a role, how about prince of darkness or janitor, which are both pretty dangerous for town? However, I think as a mafia, GF is a great choice for BC. BC should be a prime target for an alignment check, since he's an experienced player AND hard to read, so GF for him could save the scum team a lot of headaches... Speaking of alignment checks, On January 10 2011 10:17 Eiii wrote: I'll be taking alignment cop. What did you find out last night? | ||
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aidnai
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Everyone chime in please on who deconduo should hit today. | ||
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and eiii, do you have an opinion of who we should shoot today? and are you going to tell us the results of your check? | ||
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aidnai
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A good deadline for using the hit would be 1200KST, just over an hour from now, which gives us a full 24hours to discuss/vote on our lynch. thanks for reminding me about parity cop, kita, I copy pasted the role list into an excel file before that change was made and forgot about it. Hopefully some of these people will swing by to give their opinions soon about who to shoot: misder jimbosilvers beneather zeks (Lurker) | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
aidnai says shoot BC bumatlarge says shoot LSB or BC Amber[light] says shoot BC Pigsquirrel says shoot LSB Kenpachi loosely implies shoot BC... i'll just quote him On January 14 2011 09:31 Kenpachi wrote: ##vote abstain eh.. BC wagon isnt going to happen today so no lynch for me. fishball says meh Not enough people to be decisive. I don't like it, but this will have to wait until morning. Less time to pick a lynch, sigh. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Thanks Bum! BTW bum, I'm sorry you're pictures didn't make it clear enough for me. Did you say you tracked LSB somewhere? or got actual information? LSB has made my eyebrows raise a couple times, for instance, On January 11 2011 08:48 LSB wrote: I'm going all out analytics this game. Work last game helping find the sk, so don't expect much spam from me. Well, LayoffRage is probably the day vig (if not vanilla), so... vs. On January 13 2011 03:30 LSB wrote: Have you seen recent TL analysis? XXXV was a game of lynching and shooting people who actually decided to think rather than blindly following the general opinion. I'd rather not trust this game on the so call 'analysis' thankyouvery much. As well as On January 11 2011 08:48 LSB wrote: I'm going all out analytics this game. Work last game helping find the sk, so don't expect much spam from me. Well, LayoffRage is probably the day vig (if not vanilla), so... vs. LSB total in-thread post count: 148 = 1/6th of all posts in a 30 player game = 5x average persons post count. But does all that make him scum? DrH for example has a history of spamming the thread, bossing the town around, asking for roleclaims, etc as an actual townie. It's easy to do when you don't trust anyone else to lead the town or make decisions. I'm conflicted trying to read him... One thing LSB did that doesn't make sense from a scum point of view: he told me to save barundar, who was very possibly the mafia's hit. Blue snipe, good role, LSB told me that's who I should save. Unfortunate that he was a minute or two late to tell me, but since Barundar flipped, we know LSB's pick would have in fact saved town/bullet bill... Also, I don't think it's likely that both LSB and BC are scum. Perhaps one scum, one SK, but how likely is that? not very in my opinion. And of the two of them, only LSB has a justifiable reason for picking GF. So I'm sticking to my guns on this one. Shoot BC. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Point 3 time. I start to post, (much like I promised I would the night before!) and post analysis. I try to emphasis on the idiodicness of kenpachi taking gf as #2 pick based on his arguments. Simple FoS that hey, I wasnt the only one to make. The FoS on cube. Guess what, he lied. Plain and simple he lied, straight up, made a generic assumption no one would be smart enough to double check the role list, and I called him out on it. Factor in hes a suspect for traitor and it makes him look all the more guilty. Then for LSB, guess what, everything I posted is accurate. Look at the posts, analyze it. The guy has not been behaving in the best interest of the town. Anyone can see that with the posts brought up. Yet here you are defending him, interesting. We're all busy. I have a job too. And spamming the thread just makes it hard to sort through anything. Therefore, you have to pick your battles. You have to post carefully and stay focussed. When you think you found a scum, you have to make your case and follow through. Even if you brought up legitimate points against LSB cubed and kenpachi (which I acknowledged in my original post), you're not following through, you're not trying to convince us they're scum, you're just throwing it out there to see if we'll bite. Tell me, do you really think all three of them are scum? Even here as you are defending your FOS's, you're not accusing them of actually being scum, you're just criticizing their play. But townies make mistakes, and bad townie =/= scum. Scumhunting 101. On January 14 2011 14:37 BloodyC0bbler wrote: ... You just quoted posts of LSB's that are contradicting in nature and still want me dead.....that is perhaps the most hilarious thing I have ever seen. As for justifiable reasons for picking GF, he had none aside from a scum made plan...one he didn't fully follow as guess what. HE DIDN"T CLAIM HIS ROLE WAS TAKEN. which was part of his plan, he was one of the roles marked in red. You can say he had a "justifiable reason" for taking his role, but he then failed to follow through on his plan and began role fishing for information. You also compare him to DrH, who has a history of doing the same thing as LSB, and leading town's to terrrrrrible outcomes. Remember in the first bootcamp game where he lost the game for the town by day 2? Yea, that's the level of player you just compared lsb to, someone who as town throws the game away. Yet you still are following him? You're seeing a player who is obviously not playing town sided, one who lies, and yet you still want me dead? Are you really playing this stupidly? You're doing it again-- equating bad town play with scum play. It's not the same, even bad townies want the town to win. Lynching a bad townie gets you closer to a scum win, not a town win. So tell us, is LSB scum or a bad townie? Your attack on DrH by the way is over the top. Luck conspired against town in salem as well as bad play. DrH was goaded into forming a circle by a random medic claim. Southrawrea happened to be chosen as godfather, and happened to be checked by the DT night 1. Although DrH was entirely too focussed on the town circle, his analysis did correctly identify Radfield and Jimbosilvers as scum as the game progressed. Also, I'm not aware of LSB or DrH having a particularly bad record of leading towns to terrrrrrible outcomes. But I guess you've been around longer... I still think you are scum (or maybe SK?). | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
I had a moderate sized post ready to go this morning when our ISP when down... Now it's mostly irrelevant already, but here's two things I still want to put out there: When someone makes a massive fuck up you FoS them, period. I'm wondering if a few other experienced players could weigh in on this. If BC legitimately believes this, it could explain a lot of his behavior, and I will reconsider my read of him. My opinion is that throwing FOS's around whenever you catch an error/mistake/lie is counterproductive unless you believe the person is scum. Am I incorrect? I have a big day at work today. Except for possibly my lunch break, I will be AFK until shortly before the lynch vote is due. Town: please pick a vig hit for deconduo ASAP. Then move on and pick a lynch target, I should be back in time to read and vote for that. If nothing is happening, I'm counting on someone setpping it up...I'll change to abstain for now. ##Unvote Amber ##Vote Abstain | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
##Vote Deconduo Until that kill goes through, Deconduo is our lynch today. Remember, majority lynch, so don't hammer, but he's not a townie and we have no reason to trust him. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Day Vigilante - During the day you may type Kill: Player in the thread. That player is going to die and the day goes on. You can only shoot once. According to the role, it looks like we will not receive confirmation that the kill went through until night. That means we have to trust that LSB will die. There is a fair amount of circumstantial evidence that Fishball is the traitor, however his behavior in thread has been surprisingly...not insane. Since LSB wants him dead, can we wait and see how LSB flips before killing him? I suspect LSB will flip town and we can vig fishball tonight. I want to lynch deconduo. Whether or not he lied about being day vig, whether or not he 'helped' us by shooting LSB, he is not town and he has KP. Even if we could without a doubt control his KP, town showed today it doesn't have time or organization to handle the extra KP. Therefore I'm not changing my vote. Now that LSB is most likely going to die anyway, I think we can afford to wait on BC since we'll be reducing KP by lynching Deconduo. Bottom line: lynch Deconduo, reduce non-town KP. It's a definite step in the right direction. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
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Decon on fish (according to decon) Kita on me (according to Kita) Someone on kita (according to cubed) someone on zeks (according to Ace lol) someone on jimbo (according to jimbo) BC: the amount of KP is actually not that unreasonable... compared to last night, we lost one (LSB), we gained one back (Kita), and then we have one extra (possibly a hidden pro-town JOAT?) All the claims can be explained by something as simple as, for example: Decon on fish (SK #1) Kita on me (Vigi) Someone on kita (Scum KP) someone on zeks (JOAT) someone on jimbo (SK #3) What makes less sense to me is how few people died... literally, it would have to be something insane like BC was medic saved, fish is vet and jimbo is bulletproof. Or else, one of them is the third SK? My read of Jimbo (townie who takes himself too seriously) is definitely compatible with vet/BP, so I'll buy that. Deconduo hitting fish is complicated, lots of possibilities. for example, -Fishball is vet, everything else is as claimed -Deconduo is scum, fishball is traitor and was converted -Fishball is scum, was saved by a scum medic who knew where the hit would be some BP/vet claims might be able to shed light on the situation. Hold off on that until you know you have a case on someone though. And Kita/BC is also quite interesting, but I want to hear if there's any more information from Kita, BC, or a second medic before I get into it too hard. Last thing, there's a mod-confirmed townie out there somewhere who has PM's from zeks... It'd be nice to know who you are (one less suspect at least), and what kind of misinformation zeks might have been trying to plant. Please share  | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 14 2011 07:55 aidnai wrote: Here's why I think BC is scum. 1) By BC's own logic, we are left with a damn good chance that either BC or fishball is red, and BC has given more reasons why he's a better lynch. ... I actually thought it was scummy of BC to use this argument, I only used it myself to see if he would disown the argument or keep with it. On January 14 2011 14:24 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As you are the only one who analyzed me, I will spend the time to comment to you. Between Fish and I, chances are one of us is red, I will agree with you there, although chances are higher that he is traitor than red, however I think fish and I can also both agree that we almost always gun for eachother in every game in some form. Still, I will give you valid point for one. ... He kept with it. BC reiterates that chances are, one of fishball/BC is probably red, and fishball is probably the traitor. So that means you're probably red, right? On January 16 2011 05:51 kitaman27 wrote: Some points I would like to be addressed if you don't mind, BC. (I still would also like to hear from Amber about his roleblocking target and his reasons for moving off fishball in the previous lynch and from dec about his kp target so we don't overlap) First, lets contrast this questionable reasoning: Rol: Possibly a traitor. Experienced player, so probably scum. Fish: Possibly a traitor. Experienced player, so great to keep around. Ulterior motive? Kitaman brings up a closely related point: BC completely forgot about his argument for lynching RoL when it comes to Fishball. On January 16 2011 11:58 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Reason to keep fish around is simple. As of now, myself, fishball, and jimbo are the three people posting the most coherent posts. If nothing else the three of us see logic and when we post typically have something useful. As such, regardless of Fish's role, having someone who has to play at a certain level (and if hes traitor he has to find reds as well), he will have to help analyze briefly. ... BC's response is that Fishball is going to contribute good things to town even if he's red wtf? Contribute, let's see here, subtle misinformation and bad guidance inside the thread, leadership to the rest of the scum team outside of the thread, analysis that benefits who? BC: Your answer to kitaman doesn't make much sense in light of your answer to me, since RoL is also an intelligent player who could have been very helpful to the town. And if you really thought it was likely that Fishball was scum/traitor like you told me, the correct move would be to push a lynch or night kill. On the other hand, if you're scum you probably don't want people continuing along the line of reasoning that one of you three (RoL, fishball, BC) must be scum... Personally, I think it was a pretty big mistake to play that card in the first place, I wouldn't have pushed RoL's lynch that way, and I sure as hell wouldn't have stood by that line of reasoning afterwards. BTW, I haven't heard from any experienced players about this When someone makes a massive fuck up you FoS them, period. but this sounds pretty debatable like lynch all liars or something. I wish I had enough experience playing with you to know which side of the fence you normally sit on, but without that knowledge, I can't take this really as evidence for or against you. But personally I disagree with a FoS all mistakes policy.Remind me how did you survive Kita's hit again? Hilarious indeed... | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Bum, I can't really defend myself from 'guilt by association' except by my actions, so  I guess if we get BC or Kita lynched and hit a scum, will you back off then? | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 17 2011 03:51 kitaman27 wrote: I already confirmed that I was role blocked a while ago. Pig, could you confirm that you were roleblocked as well? deconduo, odds are pretty likely that the zeks hit was by a SK. Did you decide to switch your target since you knew fishball would be a likely lynch? Fishball, can you confirm you were hit? If the role cop, parity cop or tracker has useful information, now would be the time to claim. damn it, wish I had not missed that earlier... | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
It sounds like Fishball is giving up, if that is the case and he is in fact traitor/scum, we should expect that he is being bussed and people that are on his wagon are not necessarily in the clear. Due to all the circumstantial evidence, it really does look like Fish must be the traitor, and most likely he's already been recruited. BC's psychoanalysis is interesting, but not as convincing to me as the other evidence that has piled up. ##Vote Fishball Fishball, if you're town and you don't want to defend yourself, at least give us some ideas to look into once you flip green. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
in the final version of the draft list, bumatlarge is number 10, not number 8. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Bum, I'm completely aware of the possibility of Fishball being bussed. On January 17 2011 11:43 aidnai wrote: So, having our medic roleblock is kind of annoying... Not sure how we'll be able to use Kita's vig role safely now. :/ It sounds like Fishball is giving up, if that is the case and he is in fact traitor/scum, we should expect that he is being bussed and people that are on his wagon are not necessarily in the clear. Due to all the circumstantial evidence, it really does look like Fish must be the traitor, and most likely he's already been recruited. BC's psychoanalysis is interesting, but not as convincing to me as the other evidence that has piled up. ##Vote Fishball Fishball, if you're town and you don't want to defend yourself, at least give us some ideas to look into once you flip green. And, I have also pointed out reasons why I think BC is scum, some of which have yet to be addressed by BC (maybe he doesn't find me threatening enough to warrant a response). On the other hand, I agree with his posts on deconduo and fishball. All this to say, Fishball is a solid target for today, and if BC wants to push your lynch tomorrow or whatever, we'll analyze the evidence and decide at that point. In the meantime, the real point of my post... On January 16 2011 14:27 JimboSilvers wrote: Only have a moment but I took a hit last night. For now start looking at the people I accused. I'll be back sometime monday and can address the situation fully then. Well, this includes me, but I'm not going to analyze myself other than to reiterate, my crappy posting day 1 was due to my other mafia game driving me crazy, and I believe I've turned it around since then. I'm gonna focus on the following post. On January 15 2011 17:19 JimboSilvers wrote: Damn this is getting interesting. So I guess since deconduo is confirmed CC now, its unlikely we have a CPR doc unless someone was ballsy enough to pick it when it was pretty clear deconduo was going to pick it. So we might have 3 SKs unless the 4th hit last night was from a JOAT. Deconduo should hit beneather. I'm pretty sure he's scum. Why? He's damn useless and posts only questions, one liners, doubt posts, and posts that just seems like he's trying to act. He doesn't offer any strong opinions, and offers questions on pointless information. And after he poses the questions, he never follows up and offers insight. His voting record is also laughable, he votes for LayOffRage day 1, and abstains day 2. He also has no acceptable reasoning for either of his votes. kitaman should hit Fishball. Why? First off, this confirms kitas role and targets a troublemaker. If fishball flips traitor, then kita is confirmed innocent otherwise the hit wouldn't go through and fishball would be recruited instead. This is unlikely though, as I think Fishball is just plain scum. Hes been useless, calls out a bunch of people calling them scum with little reason. Although his play can be interpreted as "he's just having fun", he is active yet doesn't contribute. He stirs the pot when there is already chaos in the air, and doesn't do anything to actually help the town. Burn his ass. For the third hit (CPR Doc/3rd SK), I propose zeks. This just reminds me of someone who is hiding. Said some stuff earlier about LSB's plan, announced his number, and announced that "I'll say that I'll be taking one of Alignment Cop, Tracker, Mason or Witch." Well its time for him to crawl out of your cave there, because for being an investigative role hes pretty clueless. Hes obviously not the witch. Either way, if hes any of the other roles he should state which one he is right now. Otherwise we should just shoot him. The rest of his posts have a common theme with the other above targets. Useless and insightless. He votes with flimsy reasoning on day 1, and didn't vote day 2. I was quite surprised by the zeks hit last night, I forgot that Jimbosilvers had recommended it to our unknown extra KP role. But good call on that one Jimbo... and Fishball is looking pretty good atm as well. As for Beneather, he's been absent for 30 something hours (since the LSB day vig hit). I completely misread Beneather the last game I played with him (he was blue I thought red) so I haven't payed enough attention to him until now, but going through his posts now Jimbo's summary of his posting this game is absolutely accurate. I will go ahead and re-recommend this hit for either decon/kita tonight. Here's smattering of his non-one-liner posts. Notice how pretty much all of these start with "But what about this..." and are always bringing up some inane possibilty such as me being traitor or copycat getting the traitor role etc. + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2011 06:49 Beneather wrote: HaploPaithan you have to have reasons on why we have you can't just blindly say something with out any reason to back up your statement. That's just basically 1 line spamming. Why do we have to worry about CopyCat he will only copycat someone that has a good role and that he knows it for sure or he'll be just wasting his powers blindly and might get some bad role or something. The only time CopyCat will work is if people start claiming and he can just copycat that role if it's good also it would be good to see if their lying about their role. It really can be used as a Detective tool as well. So what are you thinking that CopyCat is a bad role ? On January 11 2011 12:14 Beneather wrote: If I'm not corrected but if Aidnai does have traitor then the Copy Cat power works and that person gets traitor as well. Do we really want to work on another traitor? Honestly I wouldn't. We have to be very careful of our first lynch if we lynch a traitor then CopyCat gets that role and we have another traitor. We really just don't want Copy Cat getting the role traitor from our first lynch. On January 11 2011 12:29 Beneather wrote: Sure we can release Deconduo but one problem... How will we know who is the CopyCat? Also if he doesn't do as we say we can just lynch him and we get rid of the dangerous CPR Doctor. The only one I can see the pardoner being used to save someone to be lynched is if they were mafia. That is a really strong mafia role. As it saves the mafia and then they can just use their KP at night saving that person for another day. On January 11 2011 12:54 Beneather wrote: But if a townie is being lynched then doesn't that mean that the majority of the town agree that this person is scum/traitor. Really if the person does pardon them it means that person is even more of a chance of being scum. I think if the person gets pardoned we should just get our CPR Doc. to just kill him. On January 11 2011 13:02 Beneather wrote: But how would they have the role of their choice if they do not know who picked what in the draft since people didn't follow the LSB's plan. If they did and got Copy Cat + Pardoner they could easily have got the role that they wanted, but luckily people didn't. On January 11 2011 13:10 Beneather wrote: How is it a gamble to pardon? Pardoning is a scum role so if we force a pardon then they get to choose who to kill. We'll also know that the person who got pardoned is mafia and we can just use CPR Doc. on him. Also Pardoner can only use once so we don't have to worry about anymore of those. I also suggest at night that the doctors should protect the CPR Doc. On the first night so that CC doesn't get CPR Doc if he is mafia. On January 11 2011 13:16 Beneather wrote: But if he's traitor then CC gets the traitor as well then we have to deal with that again. If you think that Fishball is a traitor then maybe the next day.I really do not want to deal with another traitor. There are so many accusations on different people being the traitor I understand that we need to deal with that after this first death because CC will get traitor. On January 11 2011 13:21 Beneather wrote: But how do they know they know who has what role? No one followed the plan. So they have no real way of knowing what they will get. Also if they hit some who has BP or protection they lose their KP but we also have to worry about the SK and his KP. Pardoning Day 2 is safer, I agree with that. [green]There is 2 KPs at night and there's a pardon on day one ? Then who's kill goes first SK or Mafia's? If it's SK then CC gets the role of whoever SK killed? As Jimbo pointed out, when you read these posts you really get the feeling that it's all an act, that he's not really interested in knowing the answers to any of these questions (since he could think through it himself if he wanted), he's just coming up with things to say that a townie might say. On January 10 2011 10:07 Beneather wrote: Yes, I'm going to follow LSB's plan and take Bullet Proof ! :D Beneather, please claim whether you got this or not. We need to compare to Jimbo's claim (he claimed surviving a hit, did not specify vet/bulletproof). | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Ace, if a paranoid medic protects a vigilante, but the medic is killed by mafia/SK KP the same night, will the vigilante be protected and roleblocked or not? If the answer is no, then I think cubed should certainly consider protecting Kita again. This eiii has been absent for a while, plus I was really hoping to hear from him about parity cop results, so I went through his posts. He's played two games before, so I briefly analyzed his play in those games as well, and, to summarize, he definitely is playing within his town style. Since I ended up deciding he's probably town, I'll spoiler this so it doesn't clutter the thread, but since I put a lot of effort into this I figure I'd just post it anyway. + Show Spoiler + Pokemafia, scum: Eiii posted about once per 24 hours, sometimes less, until the end, when there were fewer players remaining. Post length ranged from average to extremely long. sample posts (included to show post length and frequency): + Show Spoiler + On December 11 2010 17:10 Eiii wrote: holy shit Gabriel Mafia: The game where it doesn't matter that your arguments are logically consistent, or that they're accurate, or even that they make any sense at all! As long as you have a long post to make so it looks like you're trying really really hard, congrats! You're absolved of potentially being mafia. Next suspect! On December 12 2010 11:19 Eiii wrote: Alright, so as much as I don't like his posts gabriel seems to pretty clearly be a townie at this point. Looks like actual discussion makes him put out decent content instead of just blindly lashing out, so hopefully that keeps up :D I'm switching my vote to ken. He's already been analyzed to death, but what I really don't like is this: Zero response to DC's attacks, just semi-claims to be blue to avoid a lynch. Obviously he takes it back a post later, but I just can't get over how disruptive a move this is. On December 13 2010 07:40 Eiii wrote: Yeah, I said that calling ken out as a major target so early was a bad plan because he always played spammy. I stand by that. They were mostly attacks on your posts-- alright, they got a little personal, I'm sorry about that. But seriously, in one part of that post you outright state that you can't possibly be mafia because you explained your vote-- you admit you didn't have 'good logic' behind the vote, but hey since you offered an explaination then nothing could possibly be wrong. I don't understand this line of thinking at all, and it really put me off at the time. I don't have any defense to node's call out. Those were two posts where I just attacked you because I really, really didn't like you style of posting. I'll avoid things like that in the future. Because three posts later, I went back and actually made the effort to understand your post on zeks instead of just tossing it out as another grasping-at-straws analysis post by you. I rethought my position on you-- You were being way too aggressive to be mafia, like I kind of alluded to in my 'too bad to be mafia' post, and once I stopped focusing on your questionable logic at times it looked like you were actually trying to root out mafia. Like I said-- as long as there's *actual* content for you to analyze, I think you'll keep putting out pretty good analysis posts. At the beginning, there wasn't any content and you just kind of attacked people-- *that's* what set me against you at first. I didn't use even remotely the same logic you did for calling kenpachi out, and you should know it if you've read my posts. Sure, if you actually throw some content inbetween those two posts they make a lot more sense! At first, ken was just spamming. Gabe called him out for it. Ken always spams (or he did in salem when he was medic, at least), so it's not really a huge mafia tell in my book (for him, of course). What really tipped me off was when he semi-claimed blue at the last second when it was clear he was under significant pressure. In salem when he was about to be lynched he just busted out with 'I'M MEDIC' out of nowhere, and got his ass saved. He *was* medic, of course, but I don't have any doubt that he remembered how quickly the town opinion on him turned around in salem once he floated that piece of info. What I saw here was someone really, really afraid of getting lynched who knows that claiming blue has saved him in the past, so he goes for the same tactic again. That's the reason I voted ken-- I didn't vote because he was spammy, I didn't vote because he posts didn't have any content, I voted because considering his history in salem and that quoted post's reaction to major pressure, I thought he was trying really hard to get out of being lynched. I really didn't like your posting at first, and that stuck with me even as it got better. I explained my thought process more above. Darth's post on me focuses on about me focuses on my turnaround on ken as well. I didn't lynch ken becuase his posts were spammy or bad, like both have pointed out I defended ken for being spammy and bad earlier in the game. It's specifically his reaction to pressure that got him my vote-- I don't think defending someone for doing one thing and then later lynching them for a separate thing they've done is a contradiction in the slightest. On December 14 2010 19:36 Eiii wrote: This town is just full of drama, isn't it? Gabe, I'm having something of a love-hate relationship with you, just as you have a love-hate relationship with being useful. Look, you're very suspicious of zeks and zeks is very suspicious of you, but both of you are acting out so badly now that neither really looks any better than the other. There's almost no good that can come of this, but let's go through your post point-by-point: ONE: Zeks has a reasonable point here. Even if you are completely 100% totally certain that zeks is mafia for whatever reasons, I don't get the feeling that the rest of us feel quite as strongly and you should respect that as long as you don't have the solid reasoning to back up such a claim. Zeks is suspcious and we certainly should be keeping an eye on him, that's for sure-- especially after he just barely missed being lynched day one, but not getting lynched doesn't make him mafia automatically. It makes him very worth looking in to, at least. We'll do that, don't worry. The more you two go back and forth fighting like this the less credible each of you get. This isn't gabe vs zeks, assuming you're aiming for a town win. Zeks is suspicious, we will keep an eye on him. If he continues to act suspicious, he's a prime lynch candidate. That's it. Thanks for bringing it to our attention, you did a good job with that at least. TWO: Good observation from zeks. Regarding hesmyrr's role, taking the cautious route here isn't a bad thing, but I don't understand what mafia would gain from claiming one-life-down vet. They don't know who the bomb hit-- if hesmyrrs is mafia and the real vet out there knows who took the hit, than all mafia's done here is out one of their members. If mewtwo actually took the hit, then he just knows who to kill when he wants to cut down mafia numbers (which will probably be pretty soon, given the way the game's going so far). Or, the only way this move doesn't hurt mafia is if they know that the bomb was on one of the already-dead townies. But whichever way, mafia has no way of knowing which situation is actually taking place! I'm inclined to say that hesmyrrs is town, but caution never hurt anyone. THREE: Calling your arguments 'solid' and treehuggers' 'stupid' is a little self-serving, don't you think? Both arguments had decent grounds, prentending that your argument was perfect and his was shit so obviously mafia must have intervened doesn't get us anywhere and shows exactly the kind of bad attitude that makes you look suspicious. FOUR: This is just another story about how gabe's fantastic arguments and debating skill triumphed over the pathetic jcarl on page twenty, leaving him with only an angry face and blah blah blah. This is pointless and gets us nowhere, please stop this kind of posting. FIVE: Alright. SIX: This is a mostly baseless attack from zeks, if I understand correctly. SEVEN: Zeks uses my change in stance on gabe to show that the whole gabe bandwagon disappeared, when there wasn't really a good reason for the gabe bandwagon to keep going. He got votes early on because of agressive and attention-grabbing posting, then lost those votes as more suspicious people were found. I don't think that's an unreasonable shift. Gabe's response to this is, again, 'I defended every argument against me and am a fantastic debater and am not one of the crying idiots like you.' This is seriously not helpful. Good point about context, though. EIGHT: zeks, his accusations against you amounted to a couple posts that could be taken as scummy. It wasn't much of a stretch, and there isn't much to be questioned there. Not everyone instantly bought in to gabe's *conclusion*, but his evidence spoke for itself. Gabe, how can you say zeks was never bandwagoned when he was prime candidate to be lynched for the majority of the day? And again with the 'my argument is perfect and no one has yet to stand up to it, so clearly it is entirely correct'... ...anyway, the point is: Gabriel, you clearly have the ability to strongly influence the town's focus and direction. Please start using this ability to actively hunt for scum or investigate recent events rather than abusing it to win your ego-war with zeks. Zeks is suspicious. Everyone understands that by now. By fighting like this you're hurting your reputation, you're hurting your argument, and you're hurting the town as a whole. Please look at the big picture, and put more effort in to make your posts constructive for the town as a whole instead of just for yourself. On December 15 2010 07:33 Eiii wrote: Sorry, I can't stick around for much more than just a vote today-- I've read through the thread, and zeks has yet to do anything to seem less suspicious to me. I think he's our best bet. On December 17 2010 11:44 Eiii wrote: I feel the same way as kita-- I'm following along for the time being, but I just don't know what I can contribute -_-. It's worth noting that admitting to poor play doesn't make the posts in question any less poor or scummy or whatever they are. d3 is my lynch target of choice for the time being, but it seems like all of the arguments flying around (from all sides) aren't anything more than "You're spammy! You've been lurking! This post isn't optimally helpful!" I don't know if that's the right track to be on, but it certainly doesn't feel like a helpful discussion to me. The double lynch doesn't feel like a good idea to me because I don't think we have enough good leads on scum. It's the end of salem all over again, with slightly lower stakes. On December 17 2010 19:02 Eiii wrote: I wasn't aware we were in such a situation. :S Double lynch it is! On December 19 2010 20:00 Eiii wrote: I've been lurking recently because after reading through the thread each day, I just haven't found myself with any reason to post. You guys gave me a reason this time around, though.. ...because today I learned that either I'm miller or node is scum! Given how fragile the current situation is I'm more inclined to believe node is just lying and trying to throw off our double lynch to all but secure a mafia victory. DC's actions recently don't make him look 100% clean, but neither do node's-- plus, I don't think it's totally believable that a dt would be lucky enough to hit mafia twice on his first two tries. :/ That was ALL of Eiii's posts over a period of several days. Overall impression is that he avoided posting whatever little thing was on his mind and was much more deliberate about when he actually clicked post. Notable events that brought him out of hiding included being called out for lurking, or after node claimed he DT checked and found Eiii red. Though Eiii was obviously pretty involved in this game judging by the massive length of a few of his posts, he posted the bare minimum. Salem, townie: After being subbed into this game, Eiii posted about 5-10 times per day, average length short to average. Sample posts from Salem: + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2010 08:34 Eiii wrote: Yeah, this whole lynch party is based off of ghrur switching to BB from ken last minute. Between that, PM weirdness, and general unhelpful or odd behavior, I think he's our best choice. Without the ghrur switch, I don't think people would be seeing ken as anything but an annoyance. It's not a great lynch, but it's the best we've got for now. It seems like this whole thread has either been focusing on DrH's attempts at organization and pleads for roleclaims and the ghrur/ken situation. Both are important and worth discussing, but they've mostly served as huge distractions. The only reason we got ghrur was because our hatter was suspicious and got lucky (afaik)-- neither discussion has really produced anything of value. On December 01 2010 10:09 Eiii wrote: If it turns out that ken is actually medic, then he's a huge idiot. Could just have been a last-ditch attempt to save his ass, though. :/ On December 01 2010 10:19 Eiii wrote: Darth may not have been to active, but his posts were good -_- Now we have to waste even more time/resources dealing with ken however he's to be dealt with. On December 01 2010 10:25 Eiii wrote: How confirmed is south? All we have is that he said a DT checked him. Are you saying you have more, or is this just blind (not entirely unjustified) trust? On December 01 2010 10:29 Eiii wrote: Either way, it saved you. You claimed medic, so you lived. On December 01 2010 10:35 Eiii wrote: DT checking ken is the best idea I guess-- if he turns out to just be a townie then we can pretty safely ignore him for the rest of the game-- he's either chaos or willing to fuck up town to save his own ass. If he's medic, he's an asset all of a sudden, and if he's mafia that's a free kill. On December 01 2010 10:48 Eiii wrote: Why are we assuming that if there's another medic ken can't be medic? It might be a reasonable assumption but it's not something to bet a blue on. Honestly, I don't like how this is playing out. Ken has a clear lead, there's a last-second push to a townie thanks to ken's medic claim and some help from a few others, and now you're advocating that DTs shouldn't check him, because you say that another medic claiming to you proves ken isn't what he say he is. It's tough to know anything for sure in this game, but if a DT checks ken and he turns up red I'm sure something'll happen. On December 01 2010 11:32 Eiii wrote: I might be behind on this or just clueless in general, but I'm more concerned with how DrH can be trusted. I know setting up a circle and doing what he does isn't scummy at all, but if he's the elder (and if he's mafia, he's the elder for sure) then he's put himself in a fantastic position to really fuck town up. On December 01 2010 11:56 Eiii wrote: I really like the idea of a mass claim-- but I think it should wait until we have someone who's 99% sure to be town. DrH has only his actions going for him, but he knows that as well as we do. Mass claiming to a mafia would, as far as I can tell, lose the game for us immediately. On December 01 2010 12:03 Eiii wrote: Oh, I assumed you meant mass claim to DrH. DrH has said a few times he has 13/30 or 12/30 or however many people claimed to him, but we only have a handful who have actually shown it in PMs or something. On December 01 2010 16:14 Eiii wrote: I've claimed to DrH. Can we get all of these people to chime in, though? No one's raised a fuss so it's probably cool, but if there are any lies here they're worth looking into. A big circle like this is really really powerful, but also potentially really really dangerous. All of these posts are from a SINGLE 24 HOUR period of Salem. The main difference seeming to be that Eiii was quite free to post what was on his mind and respond to events in the thread. What we see from Eiii in this game (PYP3) is he is back to posting several times per day (~30 posts over 5 calendar days), responding to what is in the thread as he reads it. Also this post in particular On January 15 2011 19:29 Eiii wrote: I'd be willing to bet this game on the fact that there would only be two SK, personally. Jimbo's plan seems just fine to me, as well-- zeks and beneather have been flying under the radar, and fishball has been obnoxious and unhelpful, not to mention not voting yesterday when he was clearly active. convinces me that eiii is town. No way a mafia would be okay with a plan to hit at least one mafia and the likely traitor. list of current lurkers/inactives (these people need to post soon according to the 24 hour rule): -Kenpachi -Deconduo -Beneather -Eiii | ||
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In other news, wake up everybody. No reason for 3 hours of silence in the middle of the day--we have a lynch today, and we have nightkills to discuss as well. Current voting: Fishball: 6 votes Kenpachi Kitaman27 Amber[light] Bumatlarge BloodyC0bbler aidnai Eiii: 0 votes BloodyC0bbler: 1 vote Pigsquirrel Not voting yet: deconduo, CubedIn, Haplopaithan, Eiii, Misder, Jimbosilvers, Beneather Misder is a player I'm having a hard time reading. Most of the content-posts from Misder have been responses to fishball's 'accusations', and misder never seems current on the situation or contributing to what is actively going on... | ||
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On January 17 2011 13:53 Amber[LighT] wrote: It feels like there's 8/5 scum remaining. ##vote: Fishball He's not going to flip recruited mafia. This game is over for the town. This post does not make any sense to me. We had probably the best night for town I have ever seen, and you think we're screwed? You think Fishball is town, but you're not going to argue on his behalf and show us where the traitor is? And as for your 8-man scum team, you're one hell of a conspiracy theorist... | ||
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Ok, this being the case, I think Kita should have the last say whether cubed protects him or not. Kita, if you feel certain you have a scum in your radar, tell cubed not to protect you and you'll be able to get your hit in, even if you die. If you're not as confident in your hit, I think cubed should keep protecting you. We still have deconduo's night kp tonight I believe, that's enough. I trust Kitaman enough to not have him announcing his hit before hand. It seems entirely possible that the mafia have a medic, which would slow us down quite a bit if they knew for sure who we were hitting. ^^@fishball: Rofl it's true dude, did you see me in team mini mafia? Can't read anyone... Anyway, I'm not going to take this seriously until you flip tonight :/ | ||
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oh well, back to the game... | ||
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Overall I'm disturbed by the lack of noise today. Kita, what do you think of beneather? should we have dedonduo hit him tonight? fishball, you're right that jimbo could be scum. But in that case I really don't mind roleblocking him. I don't think we're going to target him with town KP tonight, so I'm not worried about protecting him. | ||
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Well, either Deconduo is red and has no KP, or he is SK and has KP that he may or may not use for our purposes. Deconduo, I'm not going to lie, I will be pushing for your lynch tomorrow. Since you claimed SK, this is inevitable, however, if you are SK it is up to you to decide which faction (scum/town) you will assist with your final night kill. Amber, I hope you're a little bit relieved about your conspiracy theories now at least. Do you know who you'll be roleblocking tonight? Apparently you can't roleblock pigsquirrel again, so may I suggest beneather? If you are inclined to believe that deconduo is in fact SK and will use his kill against us, you could also RB him tonight. I'm quite sad we haven't heard anything from eiii, if he claims parity cop then we have to take a closer look at him and bumatlarge. Jimbo too T_T BloodyC0bbler, we may not be on the best of terms, but you have offered some solid input recently. What are your opinions on night actions? Are you still focussed on Bumatlarge? | ||
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A couple options (since, I'm sorry Pigsquirrel, we can't automatically trust your alignment): 1) kill pigsquirrel, eliminate the threat of a second night cycle. 2) have cubedin protect/roleblock pigsquirrel 3) hope pigsquirrel is town and not part of a sinister plot to kill us all? | ||
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On January 18 2011 14:50 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I'm fine with roleblocking halpo, vigi'ing bum and "med/rb" pig to keep powers down. That should eliminate/block most of the mafia and their powers. The obvious worry is if there is a mafia in the lurkers but for now I believe most of the scummiest players are on tonights docket. I also glad to see someone else along my train of thought. I'm OK with the targets, but I don't like the fact that kitaman is likely to die. Kita, what do you think? As wary as I have been of BC this game, this plan makes sense to me. | ||
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Haplo's claim presents an interesting situation... I don't like the idea of killing off our information roles. If Haplo is telling the truth (town parity cop), it seems unlikely that either bumatlarge or jimbo are mafia, considering jimbo wants bum to be vig hit tonight (however, SK is still a possibility for either.) It's quite possible that CPR doc is not in spot 10 or 11, for instance: -Deconduo is scum, he saved the CPR role for someone further down the draft. Mafia felt ballsy, waiting till near the end of the draft to pick up CPR doc, resulting in it being more hidden. More risk, more reward. -Deconduo is SK, mafia had someone at the end of the draft go for CPR doc, just for kicks, and got lucky. That being said, I would rather flip Haplo than bumatlarge, for two reasons: 1) If Bum is indeed role cop, he could be very useful for finding SKs... 2) Haplo's reasoning for picking parity cop is very dubious, to say the least. Especially after all this: On January 03 2011 13:02 HaploPaithan wrote: Cool plan. I'll go along with it. On January 05 2011 11:24 HaploPaithan wrote: I like the plan. Edit: If people can't agree on a full list. I think we should at least be able to agree that we need to have a pick order for the most dangerous roles. On January 07 2011 07:06 HaploPaithan wrote: /confirm I'm still cool with the predetermined list. On January 08 2011 01:23 HaploPaithan wrote: I feel everyone should post if they are going to follow LSB's plan as of right now. This will give us a good idea how many intend to follow it. I plan to follow it. Pretty uncool of you to insist you're gonna follow the plan and then snipe the role above yours, don't you think? If it turns out I saved the only scum set to die night one, just, lol... | ||
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- Haplo is CPR? - Mafia and SK doubled up on someone? - Someone survived the third hit? Kita did you take another hit? Even if we hit a KP role, I don't think that stops their hit from going through. And yes, Kita is pretty much doomed, but his shot should still go through. | ||
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 Bravo! Bravo!Kita, I <3 you no matter who you hit. This game is wonderful I'm sorry I'm delirious right now from sleep deprivation (watched GSL last night). | ||
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Hmm... I should be lynched for saving haplo, at least he wasn't the cpr doc though... Good work SK, and Kita, I would have done the same thing. Rofl, I think I would have shot BC twice as well. He's such a bully :p | ||
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Realistically though, you have to admit it is quite weird for you to still be alive on, what is this, day 5? as a vanilla town who has hunted down the entire red team and at least one SK? bunch of newbs, they shoulda killed you a LONG time ago lol. | ||
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I assume the 4 'confirmed' town are confirmed by your analysis of us BC? I agree on eiii, kenpachi, and myself (of course), but misder confirmed town? him and beneather are both some of the shadiest characters this game I thought. But I would have put them as scum, not SK, so I guess they are in the clear now that we have the whole scum team? And anyway, I do think jimbo is a good suspect for SK. Here's why: Other than the night 4 SK hit (which is not accounted for, could have been saved, could have been not fired, could have double up with a scum hit), all of the SK hits have been on mafia. Haplo, zeks, and bumatlarge. That is two things: unbelievable scum hunting (I don't believe misder or beneather or even myself are capable of this) AND unbelievably pro-town hits. Now, jimbo and BC both fit that profile, except I think that BC with his greater experience would have known to keep the conflict between town/mafia a lot closer than it currently is. As it stands, mafia is eliminated tomorrow along with their KP, mostly thanks to BC. Mafia KP benefits SK at this point, so why would BC try to eliminate that? This seems like an error in execution that BC is unlikely to have made. Also there's this: On January 15 2011 17:19 JimboSilvers wrote: Damn this is getting interesting. So I guess since deconduo is confirmed CC now, its unlikely we have a CPR doc unless someone was ballsy enough to pick it when it was pretty clear deconduo was going to pick it. So we might have 3 SKs unless the 4th hit last night was from a JOAT. Deconduo should hit beneather. I'm pretty sure he's scum. Why? He's damn useless and posts only questions, one liners, doubt posts, and posts that just seems like he's trying to act. He doesn't offer any strong opinions, and offers questions on pointless information. And after he poses the questions, he never follows up and offers insight. His voting record is also laughable, he votes for LayOffRage day 1, and abstains day 2. He also has no acceptable reasoning for either of his votes. kitaman should hit Fishball. Why? First off, this confirms kitas role and targets a troublemaker. If fishball flips traitor, then kita is confirmed innocent otherwise the hit wouldn't go through and fishball would be recruited instead. This is unlikely though, as I think Fishball is just plain scum. Hes been useless, calls out a bunch of people calling them scum with little reason. Although his play can be interpreted as "he's just having fun", he is active yet doesn't contribute. He stirs the pot when there is already chaos in the air, and doesn't do anything to actually help the town. Burn his ass. For the third hit (CPR Doc/3rd SK), I propose zeks. This just reminds me of someone who is hiding. Said some stuff earlier about LSB's plan, announced his number, and announced that "I'll say that I'll be taking one of Alignment Cop, Tracker, Mason or Witch." Well its time for him to crawl out of your cave there, because for being an investigative role hes pretty clueless. Hes obviously not the witch. Either way, if hes any of the other roles he should state which one he is right now. Otherwise we should just shoot him. The rest of his posts have a common theme with the other above targets. Useless and insightless. He votes with flimsy reasoning on day 1, and didn't vote day 2. Hmm... our remaining SK must be very like minded to Jimbo here? Perhaps Jimbo himself? Jimbo's scumdar has been absolutely UNBELIEVABLE this game, i mean seriously, I'm jealous dude. He's got Bumatlarge and BloodyC0bbler both drooling over him... and what was the night one SK hit (that idiot-me, I stopped)? Haplo, another scum... Deconduo, can you *actually* do town a favor this time (I'm pretty sure you owe us one) and hit Jimbo tonight? if he survives, bingo we have our SK (he already claimed to have survived one hit). For teh lulz... + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2011 15:55 Fishball wrote: Since it's Night now, for those who feel like reading, here are my impressions/opinions/comments regarding the remaining players in the game. You can take this lightly, you can take this seriously, however these are my sincere thoughts. Keep in mind, I'm not superman and I don't have every player, every aspect covered. Be warned, feelings might be hurt. Feel free to curse at me and kick my balls if need be. # aidnai Scum or incoherent Townie. He has been brought up as a prime candidate for lynch but was able to fight his way out. His last minute suggestion of another lynch candidate made me raise an eyebrow. ... On January 10 2011 10:12 Fishball wrote: Preliminary Mafia list. - BloodyC0bbler - zeks - Misder - aidnai/JimboSilvers (pick one) I was the one who pointed out the abnormal picture, but I never once directed town to look for those players who might be lying. It doesn't make sense for town/mafia to lie. There is no gain whatsoever, besides drawing attention to themselves. It was fortunate that this was sorted out by Ace, but nice try there BC. Oh, like I mentioned before, if I'm town, there is a good chance BC is red. 14. zeks [3] [1] 15. Misder [3] [2] 16. aidnai [3] [3] 17. JimboSilvers [3] [3] 3-1, 3-2, 3-3. Really? I'm picking aidnai due to this post. Are you daft? No, you can't be this bad... I hope. On January 18 2011 04:04 Fishball wrote: To be quite blunt, I think you have a hard time reading anyone, lol. On January 11 2011 08:56 bumatlarge wrote: Exactly. New player comes into game, gets a shiny red pm. It is smart of him to listen to more experienced peers. He asks tidbits in thread to clarify things he is discussing with his scum buddies. Yet he never really makes solid posts in fear of letting anything bad show. I wouldnt normally pick on a single person for that, but that pattern fish ball presented is interesting, and I would like to see what happens. Jimbo is the opposite. A new player, but he gets a lovely shade of green in his pm. Excited for the game he forges opinions in his head. He vocalizes them because he can't share it with mafia friends and there is no pandain to constantly message him to tell his deepest darkest secrets. In fact, I feel guilty for not suggesting that jimbo take mason. I'm very sure he's town, and if not he's a great addition to tl mafia, whether he is sk or mafia. I'd be completely blindsided. Or perhaps you have some information to give aidnai. Because I faintly recall. And I agree! On January 11 2011 12:14 LSB wrote: This doesn't sound like analysis Bum. It sounds like the good old "we can get information from this lynch! yay!" I want to warn people that it is incredibly easy to misread Aidnai as scum. I used him in Harry Potter to divert the lynch. On January 11 2011 16:24 Barundar wrote: I’m not convinced on aidnai. In HPmafia he posted one liners, discussed setup in thread etc., and it was easy to direct the day 1 lynch on to him. This post is from when he was actually scum and was being pressured in ExMiMa: + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2010 14:53 aidnai wrote: So, I see several things going on at once in the thread. There is the Coag/Fishball/Orgo thing going on, then there's the Ghrur/Deconduo thing, and of course who could forget the RoL/aidnai thing. (I still maintain that debating the role clues/hints is mostly a waste of time). Here's the thing, mafia would love to just sit back and let town destroy itself. So it's a safe bet that some of these conflicts are townie vs. townie. But the fact that the debate is continually being shifted from one thing to the next says to me that mafia are active in the thread, trying to shift attention around. So probably there's at least one mafia vs. townie battle going on. Now my thoughts: RoL vs. aidnai. RoL's case against me was pretty weak, ESPECIALLY compared to the way he was acting about it. I've thought about this for a while and come to the following conclusion: RoL is probably a vet type role, or perhaps a mad hatter. I believe his game plan was something like, pick the first scumtell you see, pressure the shit out of whoever it was that 'slipped'. Two options from here: 1) you found mafia -> congrats, you may get a lynch, you may force mafia to behave a certain way in the thread, etc. 2) you found town -> in this case the plan is to draw a mafia hit. Mafia would certainly be tempted to hit RoL to frame me and cause confusion in the town (while eliminating a strong player, perhaps the only one here with a game plan)...of course, RoL would either survive the hit (foiling the plan) or maybe blow up some mafia. I think he may have also chosen me to pick on because i'm new--the thinking being that if I was actually mafia, he'd be able to scare me into making a real slip-up. I think his brazen, fearless stlye of posting definitely points to a vet/bulletproof/hatter type role, where he would want to take a hit. Verdict: townie vs. townie. Ghrur vs. Deconduo. I have looked at the posting from both, and in my opinion we're looking at two townies again. Both deconduo and ghrur looked suspicious right off the bat, as each would be eager to point out. But, that is more than understandable, given the wacky game setup plus everyone is a blue so that right there is gonna make people act a little weird. What is more important, however, is that they both responded pretty well to pressure, gave good arguments, posted without guilt or fear etc. Imo you two should bury the hatchet. Verdict: townie vs. townie. That leaves coag/fishball/orgo. I feel like I'm missing half of what's going on with this one, but here's what I see. Coag votes fishball later explaining his reasoning as "I really feel that if doch would make anyone on the signup list mafia it would be 100% fishball". Fishball responds pretty oddly (voting himself, then unvoting and voting RoL), and orgolove jumps all over him. Now this was obviously a simple pressure vote, but look at the way fishball reacted: Now, this seems scummy to me for several reasons. 1) overreaction much? 2) advises looking at inactives, votes for a strong mafia player/veteran (at that point inactive) and then never changes his vote despite RoL becoming active and being a likely blue. 3) shows no regard for town interests. And in fact, fishball has done absolutely nothing for town, even though he's been active yesterday and today. Here's the rest of his posts to date: Keep in mind these posts (from page 8) are boldly ignoring orgolove's accusations--a common mafia tactic (ignore it until it goes away). I know fishball is capable of doing more for town than this. Maybe he's acting extra strange because of his role, but I can't believe there's a town role that keeps you from contributing anything at all. on that note: ##vote fishball P.S. aeres, barundar, ~opz~, ghrur, jcarlsoniv, will you please remove your votes from me? only thing worse than getting killed night one for me would be getting lynched day one. -_- I like Fishball’s suggestion of a policy lynch on LayOffRage, but we could also use the pardoner for a 0 lynch, and let mafia decide the CopyCat role. The reasons for this plan is: First, we know where the CopyCat role is, since Jackal58 said he would follow LSB’s plan. When mafia pick off one of our power roles, he should receive it, and they will have to waste a hit on him night 2 as well. If Jackal58 is still alive on day 3, we can lynch his ass (or he can put the role to use). Second, if Jackal58 is lying about picking CopyCat, we found our traitor. We might have lost an important power role to the real copy cat, but we got one red down. It’s a loss of a role for a red, which is in my opinion a decent trade, as long as deconduo and kitaman are medic protected. It would be nice to hear from Jackal58 if he can actually confirm he got the CopyCat role. vs. + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2011 21:39 bumatlarge wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 13 2011 17:06 JimboSilvers wrote: Wow what the hell do you think you pansies are doing here. I leave, and everyone decides on the brilliant idea of lynching LayOffRage, who claimed vanilla who picked traitor. He claimed to have failed at picking traitor, which no scum in his right mind would do. His lynch was pretty much opposed by nobody, and nobody stepped up to defend him. So he's obviously not scum, and he claimed traitor is above him. Yet you guys decided to lynch him for no other reason than because you thought he was lying. Or you were afraid of lynching a witch. Brilliant. Its 17 players left and 4 people died last night. If one hit was a JOAT hit, then its another 4 hits tonight + 1 lynch = 12 players left. There are 5 are mafia, 6 if mafia recruited the traitor, which would make it game. If it wasn't a JOAT and there's 2 SKs, then its 5 hits tonight which is even worse. So this is a potential lylo. Even if we correctly lynch today, its 4 mafia left and we have few leads. So priorities for right now are that we need to lynch red, and we need to get rid of questionable KP sources. deconduo is supposedly the CPR doctor. But besides all the attention he gets from his role, he is nothing but a useless, space wasting, unreliable heap of uselessness. In his first few posts, deconduo asks a few questions and puts out a couple one liners about LSB's plan. He doesn't offer anything conclusive and doesn't try to put forward any new ideas. A little later on, he quotes Fishball and says: Doesn't offer any more opinions and doesn't follow up on this comment. He just comes in, pops in a negative statement, and disappears from the thread for an entire day. What is his point? He certainly isn't invested in his opinions. The next day, he comes back, picks a "random" number, and gets first pick. Other than that, he contributes nothing. Has a panic "crisis" where he claims he didn't get the role he picked. All this time its just one liners. What is he trying to do? Make it look like he is active or something? His vote post is interesting. He lays out the three candidates, lists general reasons to vote for them, but is very wishy-washy and doesn't take a real stand, meandering his way around lynch. He just picks one but doesn't seem convinced about who he's voting for. Right after that, he asks "On a last note, do you guys want me to zap someone tonight, and who do you want me to zap? Don't forget mafia can manipulate the 'zap vote' just as easily as they can manipulate a lynch." That last sentence is just terrible. Why does he need to mention this statement? It seems like he is just giving himself an out when a townie dies. Next, he pops out of nowhere to accuse Amber[LighT] of OMGUS voting for aidnai. Yet he doesn't like the way aidnai is playing either. So what is it? deconduo isn't putting any thoughts into his post. He's pointing fingers without pointing fingers. In his next useless post, he says: Which best suspects? Why didn't you mention these earlier? Why were you so wishy washy in your vote post yet suddenly say that the "best suspects" are at the top? And following this, his next post says he'll random who to hit between Kenpachi, Jackal58, and Fishball. This is suspicious. He doesn't want to be accountable for his choice. And perhaps he even wants to protect one of his mafia buddies by giving a list and picking one at "random". deconduo's posts bring up more questions than answers. First he is clearly lurkiing the thread. He tries to spread doubt through the town, and uses questionable methods to determine who to zap. He doesn't take responsibility for his actions, and just seems to be flailing around looking for a consensus. A consensus that would allow him to blame his missteps on the town as a whole. As a bonus, deconduo has night KP. Getting rid of that will give us a bit more time and hopefully give us at least another day to find another red. ##Vote Deconduo I love this guy, I wish I could have told him to pick mason referring to Jimbo ^^ I've got an idea. The top three can prove themselves. One is a CC, right? They have DayVig then (?Assuming first kill is the first passed?). All they need to do is type: Kill: bumatlarge (Yay, I'm not DayVig!) Or someone else. That way we can know for certain who is what. So deconduo, kitaman and kenpachi, proceed to do this ASAP. If you are not DayVig, it will do nothing. Also, if Dayvig is scum, I'd advise him to use it on someone they consider SK, as I believe it will kill them. There are supposedly 2, as we don't even know if a JOAT is in play, let alone used their ability. ##Vote deconduo On January 16 2011 03:13 BloodyC0bbler wrote: You are my favorite new player! I honestly hope you keep this level of performance up in other games. On January 16 2011 05:54 bumatlarge wrote: That's good advice, even though I'd think PYP can be tons more information based, but that for every piece of information given, you can form now analysis around it. I will try to analyze a player I find suspicious, but as of this moment, analysis involves opportunity to lynch. Assuming we do lynch deconduo or not (our relationship with him is completely information based as of now since he is playing for his survival), we do not get a lynch til say day 4. I take some blame for not being here for the end of the day to help persuade those to actually push a lynch through. But really to anyone who abstained on that day or didn't think that was important, that is either obvious scum play or everyone is daft. Also BC... I've said this twice now about Jimbo during day 1. Have you really been paying attention this game? -_- Stop stealing my compliments! compliment war lol On January 16 2011 11:58 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Yay an attempt at analysis, there is hope for you yet. Reason to keep fish around is simple. As of now, myself, fishball, and jimbo are the three people posting the most coherent posts. If nothing else the three of us see logic and when we post typically have something useful. As such, regardless of Fish's role, having someone who has to play at a certain level (and if hes traitor he has to find reds as well), he will have to help analyze briefly. As for gf role, go look at my record. I as a player have been lynched late game fairly often, and of these times I have only been red once. Factor in towns having a trend of offing the people who analyze/talk in recent games your damn right I expected to be lynched. Not only do I like to talk I am expected to purely based on my name. As for intended on doing if I was checked by bulletbill, simply claim. No reason not to. Now, move into the whole me finding an SK. You all seem to think that if I was mafia I would auto find an SK purely to off a KP role. Sadly you're wrong. As mafia I would bus 1-2 of my own team, build credibility to town and then wreak havoc. Instead I opt to find anyone who is antitown. LSB flipping SK is the most beneficial flip I could have as it shows I am not doing my normal mafia tactics of playing ridiculous plans upon plans. Then look at the night hits. Again, the people who I would target two days running are not dead. Anyone who has played on a red team with me would realize I purposely aim for town leadership or people who analyze intelligently. IE if I was red I'd have shot jimbo and fishball by now if I knew they were town. I would have kept LSB alive as based on his play (if i was red) i would have him pinned as SK and let him lead the town around stupidly till the town offed itself. Next talk about an excuse not to commit? we had two targets, both I thought shouldn't die and no way a vote swing would happen to someone I preferred. Instead I said I would go with the town flow if we were going to lynch one of them and be the hammer. That means had they flipped town my ass is in the hot seat. Then you mention flattery? Guess what dude, alot of the newer players don't learn, at all. Seeing someone new who can analyze, read a thread, make informed posts, and hell argue with players like myself who have been around for awhile is a huge kudos to him. He's shown alot of talent and potential to grow as a player, course I am going to flatter him. Now, if you want to do real analysis, go compare my previous games where I am town, just notice the style of game I play there, compared to the style of game I play as mafia. You will notice very quickly that I am playing very pro town. Rofl, I need to stop being an easy day 1 lynch target. Stop distracting the town... And Jimbo, I'm sorry for screwing with you day one too... I was feeling so loopy at the time, just wanted to have fun. But please tell me, what's your secret? Oh and Jimbo, you have a hat trick already, why not set a new record and kill 4/5 scum players (not counting fishball. that benedict arnold can rot in hell) singlehandedly? 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On January 20 2011 13:19 Eiii wrote: I should probably read spoilers huh. yes, yes you should. On January 20 2011 13:24 Kenpachi wrote: our target is SK. deconduo has no chance alone LOL Wrong, Deconduo still has KP and needs to be eliminated ASAP. We are getting rid of scum because we know who they are, when we are done we will have a much better idea of who is SK (smaller pool of players to pick from). On January 20 2011 13:27 Beneather wrote: How many scum are left? & I think that aidnai should be lynched he saved haplo @ night 1. Just one. Deconduo. And saving haplo was stupid of me, but that's a stupid reason to lynch me now. On January 20 2011 16:55 Misder wrote: I say that decon tries to hit SK tonight and tells us who he tried to hit. Just saying. We might spare you one day if you do. And does Jimbo get to survive a lynch even after he already got hit? If so, Jimbo being SK pretty much screws us. I think the best option is if we lynch decon today (4v1v1 -> 4v0v1, night 3v0v1), lynch Jimbo the next day (who won't die unless he lied, so still 3v0v1, night 2v1), then we decide who to lynch the last day as lylo. This gives us the biggest probability of lynching SK. And Misder is the winner! This plan makes the most sense period. After having lynched deconduo and Jimbo one time, we are at 2v1 which is the best odds we'll ever get. With that settled, I'd like to announce that tomorrow is my first TL birthday. I know better than to ask about how icons work, so I'll just wait and see if mine changes. The most important thing to me is that I can start reporting shit... with this new found power, I might be able to read LR threads again! | ||
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SK, please hit deconduo. Deconduo, please hit Jimbo. That is all. | ||
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On the other hand, if the SK really did hit deconduo, that would be playing against his win condition. But I for one wouldn't hold it against him. And 4/5...how can you resist? | ||
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On January 21 2011 09:09 Qatol wrote: Umm deconduo can still win. But I guess I'll follow Ace's lead and stop commenting until the game is over. uh, what? zeks, Scum Mason killed Night 2 Fishball, Scum Traitor lynched Day 3 bumatlarge, Scum CPR Doctor killed Night 4 PigSquirrel, Scum Prince of Darkness killed Night 4 HaploPaithan, Scum Parity Cop lynched Day 5 Mafia have a starting kill power of 1! # of Mafia in the Game: 5 All copy pasted from the OP Deconduo, Scum Copy Cat will be lynched tomorrow. There's no possibility of him winning. | ||
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What he said^^ | ||
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On December 13 2010 19:09 Ace wrote: Vanilla SK You are a Vanilla Serial Killer! Every night you can choose to kill 1 player. You show up Innocent to alignment checks and are bulletproof at night. Role checks reveal whatever role you picked in your draft, if you don't get a role you show up as Vanilla SK. Your kills also go through bulletproof vests. You win by killing everyone else and being the last surviving player. So obviously the SK hit beneather. Deconduo, did you actually hit the SK? <3 if you did... | ||
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by the way your numbers are off misder. We're at 5v1 right now, during night. So it should be: Plan 1: lynch someone not Jimbo Current night 5v1 tomorrow: 4v1 night again: 3v1 2nd day: 2v1 LYLO, plus too late to kill vet On the other hand if we hit jimbo and he was telling the truth about vet, then it goes Plan 2, lynch Jimbo Current night 5v1 tomorrow: 4v1 night again: 4v1 2nd day: 3v1 MYLO. If we choose no lynch, then night: 3v1 day 3: 2v1 LYLO In both plans, we can end up at 2v1 which in terms of statistics is the best shot we have of guessing correctly. At that point, we've eliminated the greatest number of incorrect targets by flipping 3 of our remaining 6 players. The major advantage of hitting Jimbo is we avoid a situation where it's too late to lynch the vet. We also verify Jimbo's vet claim. The only disadvantage is that in plan 1 we get to pick a suspicious person to flip, whereas in plan 2 all three flips are done by the SK. That's just the numbers though. And the best the numbers can do is 33%. This will come down to analysis, argument, and persuasion in the end, and I'm REALLY hoping I'm around for it... This is my favorite part of mafia... BTW, I don't think deconduo would have really revealed the SK, and it would have been a dick move to do so anyway. He's just been stringing us along the entire game, when he should have died day 2. If he had really wanted to screw the SK over, he could have told us his hit when he sent it in. Jimbo, about the 'slip of the tongue', I remember reading that LSB's hit was barundar night 1? I can't find it now, (hate it when the game is past 50 pages), does anyone else remember this? Now that I stop and think about it, LSB never admitted anything before he flipped, so it must have been speculation that I took for fact -_-. Meh, so maybe LSB hit haplopaithan, maybe the SK#2's scumdar wasn't quite as unbelievable as I gave him credit for. But even without that hit, SK#2 still has bagged zeks and bum... | ||
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Seriously though, it's not hard to understand why I want shorter night cycles. There's no night actions for town to discuss. We don't need Ace to accelerate the day portion of the cycle because of the majority lynch mechanic. As for not posting your suspects at night, that's pretty easy to understand too. Let's imagine for a moment that your top suspects are Eiii and BloodyC0bbler. You make a post to this effect at night. The SK (perhaps BC) reads the thread and decides, hmm, I guess if I kill Kenpachi, Jimbo will still be suspicious of Eiii. Or let's imagine another scenario where your top suspects are Eiii and BloodyC0bbler, but you don't post that in the thread. Now the SK has to decide who to kill, but you're not helping him. He has to figure in things like who is good at analysis, who looks suspicious already, etc. If you post your suspicions at night, you're helping the SK pick a good neutral target that will give the town the least amount of information. The whole purpose of posting in the thread is to get useful information. Information that can be used, that can be acted on. Since town has no more roles that can act at night, discussion at night is only useful/actionable to SK, not town. Not till morning anyway. Notice that BC's discussion of SK targets was essentially a goodbye post, and my discussion of it came during day. Although my post may have been premature, I did not introduce new targets, I only reinforced BC's position that you and BC are the most likely SKs... And last point, lynching you DOES have a huge advantage in that we eliminate a scenario in which it is impossible for town to win. And in both plans, 3 players will be flipped before LYLO. The only disadvantage of lynching you is that all three of the players will be flipped by the SK, instead of town flipping one of them. Which again is why I don't want to help the SK pick targets... | ||
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Not saying I'm 100% certain you're SK, but I am 100% certain that this is the smartest move for today. Very interesting night kill choice by the SK. That eliminates one of the players under suspicion anyway... Thanks BC for all the help this game. I learned a lot watching as it happened, rather than just reading about it after the fact. This game was at least as good for me as reading Ver. | ||
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Unvote Jimbo | ||
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On January 22 2011 12:09 JimboSilvers wrote: sigh analysis is on hold til I address this. Let me explain this very clearly. This is our situation- We need to decide out in 48 hours one of two options: 1- I am SK, thus lynch me twice. 2- I am not SK, thus lynch 2 people OF OUR CHOICE. Lynching me once and then waiting to see and decide on the final day doesn't make sense. Why? Because the SK is going to manipulate kills for his own purposes. It should not take a genius to realize that two lynches to find the SK is much much better odds for us than 1, because WE direct it AND we gain information from what happens. Also it's easier to find the sk from 3 people - which you get if you lynch twice - than 4 - if you lynch me once then lynch someone else. You say town avoids a worse case scenario. I say that this is just allowing the SK to take the easy way out. Before LYLO, there are two lynches and one night kill by the SK. As you said aidnai, by choosing to lynch me twice (where the first time doesn't even give you any information) you end up only getting information from the SK's kill before the second lynch. Then you still don't know what to do from there. You'll have used up my extra life, not gotten any information from it because the lynch wasn't meaningful, and we'll be in the same situation as you are right now. This entire problem boils down to: am I SK or not. If I'm not SK it's clearly moronic to waste a lynch on me. In my eye's it's just halving our chancing of victory. Thus you should be trying to figure out, am I SK? It's pissing me off because the fact that I'm veteran is distracting us from actually trying to find the SK. If you think I'm the SK, prove it, and I'll tear it down and show you my green colors flying high. This not a game of 'avoid worst case scenario. it is a game of find the serial killer.' To find the SK, we need to use what time we have to pressure people, with the threat of votes if necessary - kinda like what you're doing with me right here, which is great except it's on the wrong subject - and do some serious analysis, not just blindly bandwagon people without thinking. Jimbo, you ARE the number 1 suspect for SK right now. BC's analysis (which is not infallible, but which did get us pretty damn far this game) -- his analysis of the players remaining in this game left you, BC, and beneather as the top suspects for SK. You're the only one left. I also have already stated my case why I think you could very well be the SK. ADDITIONALLY-- IF you are the SK, and you are also vet as you claim, you must be lynched today or it is too late. Furthermore, lynching you does not mean that we'll be picking the SK from a pool of four instead of three, we simply vote no lynch one day and we have our nice 2v1 situation the next day. However, if you are a pro-town vet, what's the big deal with taking a lynch? it's one day where we don't kill a townie. We do get information - we know that you at least didn't lie about vet, which lends you a little cred, and it means that LYLO hits another day further down the line. That means more chances to argue it out. It is certainly not 'clearly moronic' to lynch you at all, especially since you are the prime suspect right now! The tradeoff is this: for the privilege of choosing one of the three players to flip between now and LYLO, town would have to take the risk of instantly losing. I'm not willing to take that risk when a) BC, who is now confirmed town, listed you as a prime suspect b) My own analysis shows that the SK followed the same thought process as you and BC for most if not all of his kills, and therefore could very well actually be you c) Your vet claim could just be an excuse for taking a hit. I'll be putting my vote back on you after I check the thread here... | ||
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##Vote: JimboSilvers Gonna make this easy for everyone else to see what's important here For the privilege of choosing one of the three players to flip between now and LYLO, town would have to take the risk of instantly losing. | ||
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Jimbo is the SK politician. We can't lynch him today because he bought my vote and Eiii was modkilled. It will only take one lynch to kill him because he is not vet, so we still got this town. No lynch today, one of us dies tonight, tomorrow we lynch Jimbo. | ||
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Damn it damn it damn it we had him too... | ||
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Well, yeah, it was pretty smart not to play that card early because I for one completely ignored the possibility of politician after it never showed up... | ||
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On January 22 2011 16:53 Ace wrote: My bad, I'll make that clear next time in the OP v_v Yea Jimbo played one hell of an SK game. He NEVER used his Politician power the entire game which was amazing patience. Your end game analysis was really wrong though. Jimbo was right - If he is an SK Vet or Town Vet lynching him gets you no where. Really you're just giving the SK another night to shoot. You won't get any information from wasting that lynch. With 5 (4) players and 48 hours if you can't decide then what will another 48 hours with no Town Night Actions do? However, there WAS a way out. And this is one of the very few times I'd ever say a townie should do this - Kenpachi get himself lynched. This way you get TWO flips in one day as town. Kenpachi gets flipped innocent and if he doesn't want to die you might have your SK. If he's not SK he gets lynched and shoots the Scummiest person on the wagon when he flips Godfather - that being whoever you guys convince him it is. The only hiccup in this plan is that all of you have to agree that ONE person is confirmed innocent and they can't vote. The other 3 would all have to vote and then give Kenpachi a 33% chance of shooting the SK and winning the game. I was going for a 2v1 situation. And, as I said, if Jimbo was vet SK, then NOT lynching him was insta-loss -- plus, I have given my reasons for thinking Jimbo was the prime suspect. Kenpachi and Eiii I was pretty sure about, beneather and misder I had misgivings about, and Jimbo was numero uno. By lynching jimbo, even if he was town vet, we were headed towards 2v1 where there's a lot less wrong guesses to make. How is any of this wrong? The kenpachi/godfather thing is an interesting idea, but a) would never have thought of that because SK is bulletproof, i.e. only a lynch will kill? b) would require every single player to agree, including SK ? c) leaves the game in the hands of kenpachi ? | ||
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I had no idea we were on such a precipice. But I think the errors at the end of the game were not as significant as several earlier on. 1) LSB's plan was horrible for town. I regret that I did not pay much attention during this stage of the game. I know LSB loves his plans, I didn't see anything wrong until BC did his analysis. Direct results of the plan: -Mafia got CC and CPR doc rather safely, it only slipped away from them because of later errors. -Mafia got a fairly accurate role list -etc 2) Not directing Deconduo's hit night one. 3) No lynch on Deconduo day 2 wtf? There was no reason to leave an anti town KP alive (well, we thought he had KP), regardless of promises... 4) due to my poor posting day 1, I was forced to use my role early to prove myself and ended up not just wasting it, but actually saving a scum Note for the future, don't be a scumbag day 1, especially when you have a role... I could have used Witch much more effectively after night 2Almost all of this was apathy at some level, but knowing that town is too lazy to direct deconduo's lynch and then leaving deconduo alive to do his own thing? wow... Meh, rather than reflect on mistakes, I would like to bask in some of the glorious moments... Bum vs. BC was ecstasy for me And I liked BC in general dismantling LSB and then the scum team. I was extremely suspicious of BC until LSB flipped, then it started clicking... Great job, mad props to you BC. | ||
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I think I should be on the list too though (of people who cheated town out of the win). Since I don't really give a crap about plans and whatnot, I paid no attention whatsoever to the whole pregame discussion and drafting/role picking portions of the game. This had two horrible effects: 1) I completely missed LSB's behavioural problems, and 2) I deliberately made "modkill avoidance posts" which of course look horribly scummy. This led to me later having to use my role too early, and not only did I waste it I actually saved haplo X_X ... If I had saved barundar like I obviously should have, we would have had a MUCH more useful townie (my impression is that barundar is a fairly capable player) and one less scum to lynch later. Ace, I had actually thrown myself in the pile of "people who are always wrong" as well, which is why I had a hard time posting forcefully this game. And, for the most part, I was wrong. I thought Jimbo was town (until near the end), I thought Haplo was coherent and/or useful day one, I thought LSB was doing his normal plan thing, I thought BC was damn suspicious, I thought Amber was scum, I thought beneather was scum, and I believed fishball's reasoning showing why he wasn't traitor. BUT I did get some things right this game too... I saw the light when LSB flipped and I reinvestigated BC. I knew his plan for bum/haplo/pig made sense and was the right thing to do. And I do think that trying to get jimbo lynched was the smartest move for town at the end when the scum were already gone, not just because he claimed vet... Anyway, thanks for hosting Ace, GG all, play with you again soon I hope. | ||
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So if you follow your senses and vote for me, I won't have a problem with that at all.
