EPTPick Your Power Mafia 3! - Page 6
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
SK, please hit deconduo. Deconduo, please hit Jimbo. That is all. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On the other hand, if the SK really did hit deconduo, that would be playing against his win condition. But I for one wouldn't hold it against him. And 4/5...how can you resist? | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 21 2011 09:09 Qatol wrote: Umm deconduo can still win. But I guess I'll follow Ace's lead and stop commenting until the game is over. uh, what? zeks, Scum Mason killed Night 2 Fishball, Scum Traitor lynched Day 3 bumatlarge, Scum CPR Doctor killed Night 4 PigSquirrel, Scum Prince of Darkness killed Night 4 HaploPaithan, Scum Parity Cop lynched Day 5 Mafia have a starting kill power of 1! # of Mafia in the Game: 5 All copy pasted from the OP Deconduo, Scum Copy Cat will be lynched tomorrow. There's no possibility of him winning. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
What he said^^ | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On December 13 2010 19:09 Ace wrote: Vanilla SK You are a Vanilla Serial Killer! Every night you can choose to kill 1 player. You show up Innocent to alignment checks and are bulletproof at night. Role checks reveal whatever role you picked in your draft, if you don't get a role you show up as Vanilla SK. Your kills also go through bulletproof vests. You win by killing everyone else and being the last surviving player. So obviously the SK hit beneather. Deconduo, did you actually hit the SK? <3 if you did... | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
by the way your numbers are off misder. We're at 5v1 right now, during night. So it should be: Plan 1: lynch someone not Jimbo Current night 5v1 tomorrow: 4v1 night again: 3v1 2nd day: 2v1 LYLO, plus too late to kill vet On the other hand if we hit jimbo and he was telling the truth about vet, then it goes Plan 2, lynch Jimbo Current night 5v1 tomorrow: 4v1 night again: 4v1 2nd day: 3v1 MYLO. If we choose no lynch, then night: 3v1 day 3: 2v1 LYLO In both plans, we can end up at 2v1 which in terms of statistics is the best shot we have of guessing correctly. At that point, we've eliminated the greatest number of incorrect targets by flipping 3 of our remaining 6 players. The major advantage of hitting Jimbo is we avoid a situation where it's too late to lynch the vet. We also verify Jimbo's vet claim. The only disadvantage is that in plan 1 we get to pick a suspicious person to flip, whereas in plan 2 all three flips are done by the SK. That's just the numbers though. And the best the numbers can do is 33%. This will come down to analysis, argument, and persuasion in the end, and I'm REALLY hoping I'm around for it... This is my favorite part of mafia... BTW, I don't think deconduo would have really revealed the SK, and it would have been a dick move to do so anyway. He's just been stringing us along the entire game, when he should have died day 2. If he had really wanted to screw the SK over, he could have told us his hit when he sent it in. Jimbo, about the 'slip of the tongue', I remember reading that LSB's hit was barundar night 1? I can't find it now, (hate it when the game is past 50 pages), does anyone else remember this? Now that I stop and think about it, LSB never admitted anything before he flipped, so it must have been speculation that I took for fact -_-. Meh, so maybe LSB hit haplopaithan, maybe the SK#2's scumdar wasn't quite as unbelievable as I gave him credit for. But even without that hit, SK#2 still has bagged zeks and bum... | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Seriously though, it's not hard to understand why I want shorter night cycles. There's no night actions for town to discuss. We don't need Ace to accelerate the day portion of the cycle because of the majority lynch mechanic. As for not posting your suspects at night, that's pretty easy to understand too. Let's imagine for a moment that your top suspects are Eiii and BloodyC0bbler. You make a post to this effect at night. The SK (perhaps BC) reads the thread and decides, hmm, I guess if I kill Kenpachi, Jimbo will still be suspicious of Eiii. Or let's imagine another scenario where your top suspects are Eiii and BloodyC0bbler, but you don't post that in the thread. Now the SK has to decide who to kill, but you're not helping him. He has to figure in things like who is good at analysis, who looks suspicious already, etc. If you post your suspicions at night, you're helping the SK pick a good neutral target that will give the town the least amount of information. The whole purpose of posting in the thread is to get useful information. Information that can be used, that can be acted on. Since town has no more roles that can act at night, discussion at night is only useful/actionable to SK, not town. Not till morning anyway. Notice that BC's discussion of SK targets was essentially a goodbye post, and my discussion of it came during day. Although my post may have been premature, I did not introduce new targets, I only reinforced BC's position that you and BC are the most likely SKs... And last point, lynching you DOES have a huge advantage in that we eliminate a scenario in which it is impossible for town to win. And in both plans, 3 players will be flipped before LYLO. The only disadvantage of lynching you is that all three of the players will be flipped by the SK, instead of town flipping one of them. Which again is why I don't want to help the SK pick targets... | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Not saying I'm 100% certain you're SK, but I am 100% certain that this is the smartest move for today. Very interesting night kill choice by the SK. That eliminates one of the players under suspicion anyway... Thanks BC for all the help this game. I learned a lot watching as it happened, rather than just reading about it after the fact. This game was at least as good for me as reading Ver. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Unvote Jimbo | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
On January 22 2011 12:09 JimboSilvers wrote: sigh analysis is on hold til I address this. Let me explain this very clearly. This is our situation- We need to decide out in 48 hours one of two options: 1- I am SK, thus lynch me twice. 2- I am not SK, thus lynch 2 people OF OUR CHOICE. Lynching me once and then waiting to see and decide on the final day doesn't make sense. Why? Because the SK is going to manipulate kills for his own purposes. It should not take a genius to realize that two lynches to find the SK is much much better odds for us than 1, because WE direct it AND we gain information from what happens. Also it's easier to find the sk from 3 people - which you get if you lynch twice - than 4 - if you lynch me once then lynch someone else. You say town avoids a worse case scenario. I say that this is just allowing the SK to take the easy way out. Before LYLO, there are two lynches and one night kill by the SK. As you said aidnai, by choosing to lynch me twice (where the first time doesn't even give you any information) you end up only getting information from the SK's kill before the second lynch. Then you still don't know what to do from there. You'll have used up my extra life, not gotten any information from it because the lynch wasn't meaningful, and we'll be in the same situation as you are right now. This entire problem boils down to: am I SK or not. If I'm not SK it's clearly moronic to waste a lynch on me. In my eye's it's just halving our chancing of victory. Thus you should be trying to figure out, am I SK? It's pissing me off because the fact that I'm veteran is distracting us from actually trying to find the SK. If you think I'm the SK, prove it, and I'll tear it down and show you my green colors flying high. This not a game of 'avoid worst case scenario. it is a game of find the serial killer.' To find the SK, we need to use what time we have to pressure people, with the threat of votes if necessary - kinda like what you're doing with me right here, which is great except it's on the wrong subject - and do some serious analysis, not just blindly bandwagon people without thinking. Jimbo, you ARE the number 1 suspect for SK right now. BC's analysis (which is not infallible, but which did get us pretty damn far this game) -- his analysis of the players remaining in this game left you, BC, and beneather as the top suspects for SK. You're the only one left. I also have already stated my case why I think you could very well be the SK. ADDITIONALLY-- IF you are the SK, and you are also vet as you claim, you must be lynched today or it is too late. Furthermore, lynching you does not mean that we'll be picking the SK from a pool of four instead of three, we simply vote no lynch one day and we have our nice 2v1 situation the next day. However, if you are a pro-town vet, what's the big deal with taking a lynch? it's one day where we don't kill a townie. We do get information - we know that you at least didn't lie about vet, which lends you a little cred, and it means that LYLO hits another day further down the line. That means more chances to argue it out. It is certainly not 'clearly moronic' to lynch you at all, especially since you are the prime suspect right now! The tradeoff is this: for the privilege of choosing one of the three players to flip between now and LYLO, town would have to take the risk of instantly losing. I'm not willing to take that risk when a) BC, who is now confirmed town, listed you as a prime suspect b) My own analysis shows that the SK followed the same thought process as you and BC for most if not all of his kills, and therefore could very well actually be you c) Your vet claim could just be an excuse for taking a hit. I'll be putting my vote back on you after I check the thread here... | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
##Vote: JimboSilvers Gonna make this easy for everyone else to see what's important here For the privilege of choosing one of the three players to flip between now and LYLO, town would have to take the risk of instantly losing. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
Jimbo is the SK politician. We can't lynch him today because he bought my vote and Eiii was modkilled. It will only take one lynch to kill him because he is not vet, so we still got this town. No lynch today, one of us dies tonight, tomorrow we lynch Jimbo. | ||
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aidnai
United States1159 Posts
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