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On December 01 2010 07:21 Kenpachi wrote:
hello Eiii. Lets watch me get lynched
Hi ken. For now, I'm gonna hop on the bandwagon as well-- it seemed like pretty decent reasoning at first, and no one really pushed back until it became clear that ken was going to be lynched. Not that I'm experienced or anything, but I feel like the info we'd get if ken's red would be game-winning. If not, then that sucks, but I just haven't seen anything that really sways me to believe that ken is green.
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On December 01 2010 08:19 DarthThienAn wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2010 07:57 Eiii wrote:On December 01 2010 07:21 Kenpachi wrote:
hello Eiii. Lets watch me get lynched Hi ken. For now, I'm gonna hop on the bandwagon as well-- it seemed like pretty decent reasoning at first, and no one really pushed back until it became clear that ken was going to be lynched. Not that I'm experienced or anything, but I feel like the info we'd get if ken's red would be game-winning. If not, then that sucks, but I just haven't seen anything that really sways me to believe that ken is green. I think the only think that could sway anyone is the fact that no one has pushed against his lynch, which means mafia are bus-ing him or he's town. It's all WIFOM, so it's up to you.
Yeah, this whole lynch party is based off of ghrur switching to BB from ken last minute. Between that, PM weirdness, and general unhelpful or odd behavior, I think he's our best choice. Without the ghrur switch, I don't think people would be seeing ken as anything but an annoyance. It's not a great lynch, but it's the best we've got for now.
It seems like this whole thread has either been focusing on DrH's attempts at organization and pleads for roleclaims and the ghrur/ken situation. Both are important and worth discussing, but they've mostly served as huge distractions. The only reason we got ghrur was because our hatter was suspicious and got lucky (afaik)-- neither discussion has really produced anything of value.
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If it turns out that ken is actually medic, then he's a huge idiot. Could just have been a last-ditch attempt to save his ass, though. :/
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Darth may not have been to active, but his posts were good -_- Now we have to waste even more time/resources dealing with ken however he's to be dealt with.
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On December 01 2010 10:19 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Ok. I'll have my DT check Kenpachi.
He first didn't even want to private claim to me, then public claims out of desperation.
I don't have to waste a DT check if a medic simply counterclaims to me or SouthRawrea (the player confirmed town aligned by a DT). That's it. It's very very very very simple. However there are many inactive players in this game and one of them vould be the medic.
If you are the medic and not Kenpachi shoot me a PM. Then I will let the town know.
If not I'll try to convince the DT to check Kenpachi who is an unlikely godfather candidate.
Now if Kenpachi and DTA are both town, then some serious reassessment of everything must be done.
How confirmed is south? All we have is that he said a DT checked him. Are you saying you have more, or is this just blind (not entirely unjustified) trust?
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On December 01 2010 10:24 Kenpachi wrote:
HEY WAIT I DIDNT POST THAT TO GET PEOPLE TO NOT VOTE ME
I wanted people to analyze it after i died..
Either way, it saved you. You claimed medic, so you lived.
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DT checking ken is the best idea I guess-- if he turns out to just be a townie then we can pretty safely ignore him for the rest of the game-- he's either chaos or willing to fuck up town to save his own ass. If he's medic, he's an asset all of a sudden, and if he's mafia that's a free kill.
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On December 01 2010 10:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2010 10:35 Eiii wrote:
DT checking ken is the best idea I guess-- if he turns out to just be a townie then we can pretty safely ignore him for the rest of the game-- he's either chaos or willing to fuck up town to save his own ass. If he's medic, he's an asset all of a sudden, and if he's mafia that's a free kill. I'm more for demanding the real medic to counterclaim to me or southrawrea so we don't waste a dt check. we'll wait until the absolute last second to decide, if no one counterclaims then it's kenpachi. 13/30 players have roleclaimed to me already, it's not like you'd be putting yourself in specific danger.
Why are we assuming that if there's another medic ken can't be medic? It might be a reasonable assumption but it's not something to bet a blue on.
Honestly, I don't like how this is playing out. Ken has a clear lead, there's a last-second push to a townie thanks to ken's medic claim and some help from a few others, and now you're advocating that DTs shouldn't check him, because you say that another medic claiming to you proves ken isn't what he say he is.
It's tough to know anything for sure in this game, but if a DT checks ken and he turns up red I'm sure something'll happen.
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On December 01 2010 10:53 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2010 10:48 Eiii wrote:On December 01 2010 10:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On December 01 2010 10:35 Eiii wrote:
DT checking ken is the best idea I guess-- if he turns out to just be a townie then we can pretty safely ignore him for the rest of the game-- he's either chaos or willing to fuck up town to save his own ass. If he's medic, he's an asset all of a sudden, and if he's mafia that's a free kill. I'm more for demanding the real medic to counterclaim to me or southrawrea so we don't waste a dt check. we'll wait until the absolute last second to decide, if no one counterclaims then it's kenpachi. 13/30 players have roleclaimed to me already, it's not like you'd be putting yourself in specific danger. Why are we assuming that if there's another medic ken can't be medic? It might be a reasonable assumption but it's not something to bet a blue on. Honestly, I don't like how this is playing out. Ken has a clear lead, there's a last-second push to a townie thanks to ken's medic claim and some help from a few others, and now you're advocating that DTs shouldn't check him, because you say that another medic claiming to you proves ken isn't what he say he is. It's tough to know anything for sure in this game, but if a DT checks ken and he turns up red I'm sure something'll happen. Well, there could be another medic, but I don't think there would be THAT many medics. A lot of people have claimed to Dr.H, so he knows a lot of roles. He knows how many medics have claimed to him and so forth. The one thing I'm worried about is how Dr.H can know to trust the claims he's gotten, especially if he has formed a town circle with some of them. An infiltrated town circle would suck.
I might be behind on this or just clueless in general, but I'm more concerned with how DrH can be trusted. I know setting up a circle and doing what he does isn't scummy at all, but if he's the elder (and if he's mafia, he's the elder for sure) then he's put himself in a fantastic position to really fuck town up.
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I really like the idea of a mass claim-- but I think it should wait until we have someone who's 99% sure to be town. DrH has only his actions going for him, but he knows that as well as we do. Mass claiming to a mafia would, as far as I can tell, lose the game for us immediately.
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Oh, I assumed you meant mass claim to DrH. DrH has said a few times he has 13/30 or 12/30 or however many people claimed to him, but we only have a handful who have actually shown it in PMs or something.
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On December 01 2010 12:03 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
i've been sharing literally everything with southrawrea and the dt. there is no information i have that they don't.
On December 01 2010 12:12 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Claimed to me:
Annul
Jcarls
Southrawrea
Kenpachi
youngminii
aidnai (pre-death)
Pandain
Chaoser
Protactinium
Glasse (claimed publicly)
KtheZ (claimed publicly)
Aeres
I've claimed to DrH. Can we get all of these people to chime in, though? No one's raised a fuss so it's probably cool, but if there are any lies here they're worth looking into. A big circle like this is really really powerful, but also potentially really really dangerous.
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That was posted after ghrur died, right? Forging a PM like that could be a decently risk-free way to remove suspicion from a few mafia members, assuming amber's mafia himself.
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On December 02 2010 07:12 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Amber: hey ghrur I need to look pro-town so send me a fake pm asking me for game advice then send me a fake pm trying to plant accusations on other players (which are maybe secretly mafia WHO KNOWS) to me then when we'll accidentally kill a mad hatter and get you killed so I can post the PMs and town will know I'm town!
Ghrur: ok!
Well of course that's ridiculous-- if anything of the sort went down it was just
Mafia: Well fuck ghrur died. Let's at least fake a PM from him and post it to throw town off, so that we get some benefit out of him.
Amber: hey I'll post it
Mafia: sweet
If people don't think that the PM sounds faked though, then we should treat it as real and just move on. In that case, amber pretty much would be confirmed town.
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I'm doing the same, he seems like the best option at the moment.
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Rad and DrH are going back and forth on this and I feel like it's wasting a lot of time. Rad thinks DrH was asking for roleclaims day 1-- When I read through this thread first, I was kind of under the same impression. I really don't like the whole situation, with people blindly willing to roleclaim to DrH or claiming because he said others had claimed, but no matter how good or bad of an idea that was to start we've got to all get behind it now.
Looking over the accusations of Rad, both seem like kind of a stretch. I think telling people not to roleclaim to you day 1, even overreacting and making the leap that DrH was fishing for roles isn't all that suspicious. I would have done nearly the same thing, to be honest.
I don't like how young is trying to sway people against DrH. We've got to all be on DrH's side, at this point.
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I suppose it doesn't exactly make 100% sense for mafia to be pushing for DrH's lynch if they can just kill him tonight. My vote's staying with him for now, regardless.
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I really don't think mafia has any reason to be in panic mode at this point. We've got (probably) one DT and zero medics.
I can't think of any reason mafia would push so hard to split up the circle, either. The only thing left in it that's of any danger to them or significant use to us is the last dt(assuming the counts are what everyone's been assuming they are).
My vote is sticking with youngminii, I'm just arguing that Jimbo isn't behaving like I'd expect a mafia to behave in this situation. It seems a ton safer to just lay low and pick off greens now that they're at such an advantage.
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On December 03 2010 12:16 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I have no problem destroying your terrible arguments if you want me to lime by line but any sensible person now can see you are scum
Enlighten those of us who aren't nearly as experienced at the game-- most of my own past or present concerns about you are reflected in jimbo's post, along with a few extra insights that seem to tie things together a little better. For now, he's the one doing lots of analysis and making arguments for who should be lynched, and you're pretty much just calling out names expecting people to follow suit.
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You never outright ask for roleclaims early on, that's for sure, but looking at this post (which was VERY early on in the thread)
+ Show Spoiler +On November 27 2010 06:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Alright so town circle stuff, here is what I know:
I know one player who is almost certainly a confirmed medic
I know one player who is either a blue role or a red role (not green)
So the first player, I'm pretty sure people can trust. If I reveal his name he will be a prime suspect for mafia protection. If he is willing, my current proposition is to have him protect me like a bodyguard indefinitely and then I can coordinate the town network but there are problems with that:
-you guys have to trust me, but I think I proved my leadership prowess in Insane Mafia and I promise to improve as town in this game (if youngminii doesn't shoot me)
-mafia can double, even triple hits on me
The other possibility is if a DT checks someone who is newer/less experienced (thus an unlikely elder candidate) and finds them to be a role that a godfather would not likely choose, they can tell that person that they checked them and found them safe and then start a network through that person without revealing their name in the thread. This would create a kinda weird assassin in the palace type situation where not everyone necessarily knows the name of the confirmed townie and only people who seem really pro-town get the information
if mafia never get the information it might start to get obvious by the way they post in the thread if it is steered correctly
i.e: someone in the pro-town circle starts fake bandwagon on confirmed town player
-several mafia jump on it
-town reveals the player in question was our confirmed town guy
-reverse bandwagon onto mafia
but again that depends on having a very small and limited circle which has not been penetrated by mafia.
just some ideas floating around in my mind.
You've obviously setting up a town circle and putting yourself at the center of it.
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If we didn't already have one dead CE I'd say JS is the CE for sure, he's mostly being noisy and drawing everyone's attention to him. Personally, I think he's pulling us off the trail of the actual mafia, but I'll switch my vote to him if the majority's on him.
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Yeah, looks like my choice doesn't have a chance. Switching to JS.
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On December 04 2010 10:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
sigh please vote for youngminii instead
its too late now. if/when js flips town i guess im to blame. doubt ill survive to day 4 when it matters anyway.
...really
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Man, I wonder who that sounds like.
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Time to do some manual seeding on that baby.
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The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly.
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On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly.
I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap.
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On December 07 2010 13:56 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap. So, we don't have any good leads on mafia, but we should bet on the town being able to lynch right 4 times in a row?
I should have phrased that better-- we don't have ENOUGH good leads. Radfield seems to be the lynch candidate for the moment, but I don't want to risk losing just for an advantage by guessing who another mafia is. At this point, if I were mafia I'd be laying as low as possible to avoid suspicion. Obviously, if they can keep attention away from themselves they've got this in the bag.
We *have* to lynch 4 times in a row or we lose. If we act greedy and go for two kills now and miss even one, we lose. I think the safer thing to do is just lynch Radfield for the time being-- if by pouring over people's posts and such we find another sure mafia candidate we should go for the MH plan again, but everyone should know that if a SINGLE bomb target isn't mafia town LOSES INSTANTLY.
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My point is we're only lynching one person, but if we take out the MH we're killing both him and two others, each of whom may or may not be mafia. As long as we don't have more than one major (and I mean MAJOR) suspect, we should just stick with lynching.
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I wasn't in the town circle so I don't know how much info you guys have behind the scenes or anything-- I'm just really convinced that it's a bad idea to jump the gun now if we're not 100% sure the two targets are mafia. I wouldn't just suck, it would be game-ending.
If there's any question at all, we should bide our time-- another day cycle is a ton of time to look back, analyze posts, etc. so we can find the other mafia. If MH and others in the circle are convinced they have perfect picks then we should go for it.
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alright this isn't really going in a positive direction here and it's probably too late to do anything about it.
Kitaman PM'd me earlier and basically asked if I'd be able to vote later today. I said yeah, I would, and he replied that the town was going to go along with the hatter plan. I checked the voting thread, and there were lots of votes for hatter there, so I threw mine in as well. At the time I didn't know for sure where the bombs were placed. I'm not in the town circle, and I wasn't about to second guess their decision. I feel like we're in an unwinnable situation, and that this is the wrong move to make but I'm not about to potentially let mafia win the game any earlier than they have to by splitting the town's vote.
obviously I'm going to take back my vote now that I *know* that I'm a bomb target.
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Oh jeez, this is not the time to be having this happen.
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The ":/" is because I thought the plan had almost no chance of succeeding! My intention with that line was more along the lines of "mark my words..." than a definite statement, and it was dumb to say looking back on it. I had (and have) no trust in the town's ability to identify two mafia with 100% accuracy, and I wasn't happy that that was the plan we were moving forward with-- but I was NOT going to fuck everything up by voting against the town. Problem is, now voting with the town fucks everything up so I have to take the worst of both.
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On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap.
....yeah, then I changed my mind because I actually looked into what lynching the hatter could do instead of going off of everyone's 'this is town's only chance' posts. I didn't know it had such a good chance of killing us when I made that first post.
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Pretty close to it. I was actually on like a ten minute break between finals at that point, and was most concerned with letting the town know I was supporting them. Obviously I went back and thoroughly read those posts later. I'm not going to pretend it was a good move at all.
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I DID!
On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap.
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Looks like DrH's gut 'South is mafia' reaction was right :X
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EPT
