|
On December 01 2010 20:28 CubEdIn wrote:Ok so I managed to skim through this. I think Kenpachi is suspicious. If nobody DTs him he can easily fake the medic role all the way to the end. And even if he does get DTed, he could be the Elder Witch. I really don't like this, it's exactly how Pandain got rescued, but better, because Kenpachi can just claim he defended x, y, z, and mafia just not attacking those players. Definitely a bad thing. Also, Dr.H has been playing differently then what I saw so far. At least to a certain extent. I don't know if that's a good thing or not but we'll see anyway. So yeah, no other real suspects other than that. I don't gotta vote or anything right? 
Wrong. if the second medic simply counter claims he's fucking finished especially considering how hard ghrur defended him on the first day
that hasn't happened so I think kenpachi is for real
|
On December 02 2010 00:39 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2010 00:12 Amber[LighT] wrote:On December 01 2010 23:53 Coagulation wrote:
how does it confirm you as town??
thats what im talking about.
spit it out. Mafia member asks me for 'help' analyzing players. Mafia member sends me a list of suspects before he dies. Mafia member dies. I visibly post the received PM as soon as I see it. Why would he have this conversation with me if we were on the same team? How on earth could I fake the conversation we had? I feel like it's decently easy to fake conversations if the plan at the start of the game for mafia was to use the PM system to manufacture fake PMs. Throughout the game, even at the start, write PMs to each other with fake info and then post them when needed. I don't think that makes you confirmed 100% but at least it makes you less suspicious.
That's ridiculous unless the mafia planned specifically on bussing ghrur to make Amber look innocent. Ghrurs death was a clear accident.
|
I don't know why people say faking PM conversations is so easy, it really isn't. Even with the dead, it's hard to write for two different people and make it look real and it's a huge risk that almost nobody is willing to take.
I've never seen a fake pm conversation ever playing mafia on TL.
|
It would surprise the hell out of me. It's one of those things you think mafia would do but they never do or will because it's too risky and too scummy.
|
On December 02 2010 06:49 flamewheel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2010 04:37 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I don't know why people say faking PM conversations is so easy, it really isn't. Even with the dead, it's hard to write for two different people and make it look real and it's a huge risk that almost nobody is willing to take.
I've never seen a fake pm conversation ever playing mafia on TL. Hmm I doctored some PMs in XXVIII. I doubt anybody read any of them though. They still served their purpose!
A game I've never read so :x
Doctoring PMs works great if the person is dead and you're good enough to fake their writing style. But it could fall apart very easily.
Did you do it later in the game?
Regardless I don't think anyone (and this is a learning game) can pretend that a PM is more likely to be faked than it is to be real. It's a very risky and difficult strategy to pull off and at most PMs will be used deceptively and selectively rather than being conjured up out of thin air.
If someone is going to post PMs, I operate under the assumption that they are probably true. Perhaps edited, but not faked completely.
|
The writing style is consistent with the "learning" PMs and posts sent back and forth between Ghrur.
This is like in Insane Mafia where these ridiculous MAYBE WHAT IF scenarios were constantly being used by mafia to detract town from trusting me, or making progress.
Occams Razor: The simplest and most easily explained scenario is often the truest. Or rather, if there are two solutions to a problem and one leaves more questions than it answers, maybe it's not the right one.
Isn't it far more likely that Amber is town and Ghrur PM'd him that because he wanted to target/implant ideas in the mind of an experienced town player? Couldn't that be the same reason they targeted BrownBear over Kenpachi because they'd rather lynch a good non-mafia aligned player (they didn't know he was CE, had no way of knowing since his router exploded) than a newer and poorer one like Kenpachi?
Yes MAYBE of course it's possible Amber faked it all. Even by the DT, nothing is 100% confirmable until someone dies. This is a prime opportunity created by the mafia to:
1. plant seeds of distrust on a clearly town player
2. railroad conversation somewhere completely useless
Let's not do this please. It's a waste of fucking time. Big time.
|
I was in that game. So you faked PM's living people sent you and then PM'd them to others? That's a slightly different situation is it not?
I would never have the balls to fake a bunch of PMs and post them publicly as scum. And I doubt I could do it as well as Amber did if he did. And I don't think the possibility of it occurring makes it likely and it hardly makes Amber suspicious.
I would feel 100% more than comfortable faking it through PMs though. Posting a fake PM from a living person in a thread is a huge no no, all they have to do is call you out. Doing it through PMs is a lot safer. Doing it from a dead guy (which Ghrur) is has elements of safety but the potential risk is huge.
It would be a brilliant play if Ghrur was bused, but his death was an accident. Do the mafia really have the foresight to fake PMs on day 1 between eachother just for a late game bus to clear one person or a "JUST IN CASE" they died?
So what's the plan?
Amber: hey ghrur I need to look pro-town so send me a fake pm asking me for game advice then send me a fake pm trying to plant accusations on other players (which are maybe secretly mafia WHO KNOWS) to me then when we'll accidentally kill a mad hatter and get you killed so I can post the PMs and town will know I'm town!
Ghrur: ok!
|
I'm not saying it's impossible
I'm saying it's unlikely especially given the circumstances. We know Ghrur is mafia and if he and Amber are BOTH mafia those PMs are too weird. They were at the very least obviously written by ghrur, but the intention is unclear because ghrur died by accident and there was no set-up for a ghrur bus on the first day.
|
Ghrur also sent me the same sort of "advice" pms that he did to Amber. If he was in mafia isn't it more likely they'd just talk in quicktopic or irc or something?
KK thanks. ^_^ That was a lot more concise and to the point than my old pms with Bill Murray, lol.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
pressure the shit out of people, see how they react
mafia will feel pressured to respond to any PM they get, they're far more likely to crack/slip-up because they feel like it's easier to fool one person than the entire town
always have a backup PM line that u trust in case you die because of something you said in PM's so that all of your analysis isn't lost when you die
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From ghrur:
Kk, fishing aside, would you mind posting (or just telling me :D) how to effectively use the PM system?
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
skeletons actually
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From ghrur:
Vampires? I thought we were zombies.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
who else is on our team ???
what do you mean why would you lynch me if we are both vampires
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From ghrur:
Thanks for the Day one lynch.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
my role pm didnt tell me who else was mafia but i know u r so can you tell me?
|
oh shit
i was under the mindset that we're discussing the game in kind of an outsider fashion so I made that silly mistake. foolishness quoted my original post though so it's all good I hope T_T
|
Modifying isn't close enough
There is a huge difference between faking an entire back and forth PM conversation and simply omitting lines or adding information/changing wording
none of the coaches agree with me on this? T_T
|
So you're agreeing with me then Aeres?
|
I guess I've been wasting my time not inventing PMs from every single dead person in the game then whenever I get mafia.
Guess I know what I'm doing in the next game I get red.
|
I'm more inclined to believe a posted PM is real especially if it's between two players already in the game. And just because things can be doctored doesn't mean they aren't worth analysing. Due to the way ghrur's PM is written and the circumstances surrounding it, I'd be very surprised if it's fake.
and sure, int his game I've edit PMs to protect the identity of blues
but if I were mafia I'd never dream of outright faking the whole thing. If I wanted to make up an entire long PM conversation, it'd have to be with someone like coagulation whose writing style (one liners) is easy to imitate :p
I'd worry too much that I couldn't sell it in public
I'm actually really geniuinely surprised you all view this as a common and likely scumtactic. Goes to show how bad I am at this game really.
|
isn't it 1hr 20 minutes?
i hope it's 20 minutes D:
|
Oh ok, I thought it ended at 6 PM PST
I live in pst too
|
I have multiple huge post analysis diatribes lined up to be released in the daytime Kavdragon, don't worry about that.
(to the end of ur post)And yes it is. A day 1 mad hatter bomb is a fair trade. Scara's death was a huge blow to town but a day 1 CE and a night 1 mafia puts the town in GREAT position.
Aidnai told me he told you he thought I was GF actually but I can't talk about that too much. But he admitted he was wrong and that he felt silly ;o
As far as these ideas and analysis, I don't like to post these things during the night. In fact I think it is the towns best policy to be completely silent during the night, don't give the mafia any chance to change their hits to something better. Unless you are trying to confuse them into doing the wrong thing.
1. no, i just prefer being cautious rather than rushing to play follow the leader.
2. I place no limit on what mafia would be willing to do to accomplish what they want.
You're obviously not going to be lynched day 1 anyway.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
1. so that applies to anyone who says anything? should town not have a leader? it's really the only thing I did right in insane mafia and I plan on doing it as well as I can in this game.
2. i'd imagine the medic will eventually find his way into the town circle and confirm it that way. faking is hard because you have to fake two completely different writing styles and fake kinda long conversations
for instance I got this pm recently from the medic
should I fake claim veteran to avoid getting hit at night by mafia?
if i get hit while im protecting someone we both die right?
so i would probably be safer.
do you really honestly think it's more likely that I went through the effort to send the same pm to a bunch of people then fake one persons response through several lengthy and reasonable conversations just to make everyone think a medic roleclaimed to me which only brought me under more suspicion
as mafia?
occams razor should apply here. if this is a mafia plan, it is a very convoluted one and it doesn't seem to make a ton of sense.
if i am mafia, what is my goal with this plan? do you really think this is the sort of power play i'd make on day 1? why not claim vet as godfather or something like that which makes a lot more sense?
don't lynch a good player like me day 1 unless you are very sure. this case is a joke, it isn't based on my post behavior or any slip-ups i would have made, it's based on a what if scenario and some shoddy mafia goals i might have that you can't even really explain
i'd call you out in the thread but I don't want to cause a big OMGUS thing and make a big distraction. I'm seriously considering voting for brownbear at the moment, but I'm iffy about putting my vote on a good player until something more comes up.
and as far as "waiting to come out" what does that even mean. i gave very little information, simply that a medic dumbly rc'd to me and that isn't something I wanted to hide from town. I'm looking for a way, with town input, to use that to our advantage. I explained some of my ideas about how even if the medic is mafia town is in pretty good shape if you want to read some of that PM conversation.
but u seem to believe it's more likely i just made up all this shit
do you really think my goal here is stronger as mafia than it is as town? i'm not even sure what the goal is, the situation was thrust on me and I'm trying to make the best of it. it's not like i planned for the medic to RC to me at all.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DarthThienAn:
1. Day 1 towns love town leaders/people that step up with plans. Half the people agree with the last thing they read. Something easy to exploit.
2. Why is faking PMs hard? No one is going to ask you to out the medic, so no one's going to be able to see if your story checks out or not.
3. It's not that farfetched. A mafia player doing something day 1?
4. Yeah, I do know. And that can go either way for me (mafia or town fishing).
And judging by the votes, it doesn't seem like you're in any danger. So convince me why you're not mafia, when you're coming out like this day 1 when you could have waited a bit until you had concrete info/stayed in PMs and coordinated blues from there.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
you think it's more likely that i'm mafia making a play to get me "trusted" because a medic roleclaimed to me?
1. how would that make town trust me more, it's made them distrust me
2. faking pms is the most dangerous and dumb thing you can do
3. you're going to get an experienced player lynched based on a very very far-fetched and bad case
4. u know for a fact i was sending people random pm's and a few other people can confirm i sent them the message "whats up buttercup"
5. i agree that the roleclaim was stupid and ridiculous, i didn't ask for it
i can't see what your goal is except to:
a. get me lynched
b. force the medic to come out and defend me so mafia can kill him
let's talk about this via pm so we don't spam up the thread.
this situation with the medic was thrust upon me because the medic is an idiot. i'm trying my best to turn this into a win scenario for town. there are already a few placeholder votes on me so lets think this through
These PMs made me believe DTA is scum because he accuses me because my claiming of the medic claim seemed to him to be scummier than town but he couldn't and plainly refused to answer the question of how the play even benefits mafia in the first play. I saw it as him dodging my questions when I guess he just didn't even have answers and was simply misguided. This happens.
So as far as the rolechecked by a DT thing. THAT WAS MY IDEA. I TOLD PEOPLE CLAIM TO A PERSON ONLY IF THEY ARE CHECKED BY A DT AND COME THROUGH AS CONFIRMED.
and guess what happened
4 fucking blue people roleclaimed TO ME without being asked to on day/night 1. Then southrawrea comes out and says "hey btw I'm the townie that the DT confirmed" and everyone ignores him and keeps on roleclaiming to me. After that happens and I have that much information, the town would be screwed if I'm godfather, so continuing on roleclaiming to me I guess is the direction to go since the town didn't listen to me.
There were a few people who twisted my words to make it seem like I've always been asking everybody to roleclaim to me when I began this game trying to encourage people not to do what that medic did and to play it safe. But they didn't and I don't think I should be under fire for the poor decisions they made. I'm doing what I can to turn it to the towns advantage. If people feel safer claiming/talking to SouthRawrea then they should do that!
So when 2 medics claim to you and from your modding experience you know there is no way jose 3 medics in this game, yeah asking for a counterlclaim is a good idea. Then I have a list of 3 one of whom I know is a lying scum bastard and that's helpful yeah?
|
I do dislike the timing D: but I'll respond all the same.
Also the pressure is on SouthRawrea and/or AmberLight to reveal my large post analysis/pm history in the case that I die.
I'm announcing that publicly JIC of the unlikely scenario that one or both are scum, so they have to release it anyway.
|
SouthRawrea is the godfather.
|
That is the only explanation.
If there is another DT you have to counterclaim to me immediately.
this means either the detective or southrawrea is mafia as they are the only people who know about the medics and Amber's involvement in my circle.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
