EPT/in
TL Mafia XXXI
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
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Pandain
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n.n | ||
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Pandain
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On September 09 2010 10:27 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Hey guys, just wanted you all to know I'm inactive already! (j/k, working behind the scenes where we make every one of you VI's) Hehe... speaking of which here are some of my evil diabolical plans if I am ever host. 1. Make everyone Village idiot. 2.Make everyone town. 3. Make everyone traitor. 4.Have 5 dts and everyone else millers. Although I would love to include some of the epicness found in the ##Execute games and Bang bang or w/e. | ||
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Pandain
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Sinquity, you are The Entire Mafia team. Due to some hole in the space time continium, multiple yous from different universes have killed the real you, and these evil clones are now mafia! You play as each one, and must assume 8 different personas. I suggest you start of by saying "Sinquity ? says...". Good luck. | ||
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On September 17 2010 09:00 LSB wrote: Pandain! I'm the Pardoner! If you teach me how to hack people's inbox I'll pardon you! Step 1: Go to TL Step 2: Put in "Sinquity" under username Step 3: Put in "I'm having mixed feelings about my own gender yet I can't bring myself to come out in the open so I express my inner frustration through this password I type every time" under password. Partly inspired by http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=83099 + Show Spoiler + Dw Sinquity, I <3 you this was just a general joke, not a joke about you. | ||
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![[image loading]](http://students.ou.edu/L/Kristina.L.Leal-1/panda1.jpg) | ||
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On September 19 2010 11:12 SouthRawrea wrote: Black Bear. FACT: Bears eat beets. Bear beat battlestar galactica | ||
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Medic: Protect people who you think are going to get hit(duh.You would be pretty dumb if you didn't.) This can include active pro town-seeming people, people you think are blue, people you think are going to be hit, or just decide your own path and be a rebel. DT: Protect who you have a suspicion of, including but not limited to 1.People acting out of character 2.Lurking people Veteran or Bulletproof: Try to soak up hits, but don't be too obvious. Under NO even remotely normal circumstances should any of these claim, as then the mafia will just stray away from shooting them. The only time they should claim is if they got hit Then we got the two town KP roles, both very interesting in this game. Let's go over them. Mad Hatter This role is very dangerous. In the hands of a good player, it can win the game, in the hands of a bad(or just bad luck) it can lose the game. For example, in Bill Murray's game Citizen,zeks, and sinquity managed to stall mafia by revealing they had a mad hatter, and had bombs on mafia. However, just as it seemed we were about to win Xelin the suicide bomber came in and killed 5 people, and zeks had a bomb on infun meaning another one died. MH has to be very careful with your bombs, but always place one(as we can get more info/chance) and the fact you can always move it. Vigilante The most interesting role for me. Now it says he CAN use it starting night two, but should we have him? I say starting night two we make a vote/tally of who to kill as an "additional lynch." And if we're really not sure, we don't even have to use him. In fact, he might just ignore us or not even exist. However, I'm hoping the town consensus will convince him unless he has a REALLY good read on someone. But more importantly, he will help us solve the Village Idiot Conundrum. That is, how do we know if a sucipious/scum looking person will not have been the VI the whole time! If we're stuck on that problem , we can use the vigilante to safely remove him. More devilishly, we can not lynch him and say we're going to lynch him next night, so if he's not mafia they will have to make a choice whether to risk having the VI lynched. Then we can even waste a kp, in addition to the possible fact he may have lived because he actually IS mafia. But that's just getting into theory now, let's go back to what we can do now. Basically, we're at the part where Amber}Light says we are, where we can do one of three things. 1. Lynch an inactive 2.Randomly pick someone (PS KingJames you go to a random number generator on a website or w/e) 3.Lynch a suspicious person In two options(#1 and 3), the village idiot plays a large role in our decision. How do we know a sucipsious/inactive person isn't simply playing that role so then they will get lynched? The thing is, we don't. We'll have to use our best logic. I am against #2 on the basis of pure statistics. Assuming we have all blue roles, there is a greater chance of lynching a blue than a mafia. I like lynching inactives for a number of reasons 1.Usually are never blues(almost always townies) 2.Forces people to get talking 3.Provides us with more info(via the result of #2) Now let me say this: I might not lynch an inactive person. But if I don't push it, I will push you getting vigi'd. I want at least 2 good posts from everyone by the end of the day. As of right now I would hope to see your opinion on what to do today at the very least. | ||
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The Magical Bamboo: A panda's narrative in eastern China. The first thing Panda noticed was that people were changing the fabric of time and altering events which are very important for The Wise Panda Sage in order to analyze. The Wise Panda Sage detailed to his panda disciples in one very concise statement: "PANDAPANDAPANDAPANDA NO EDITING PANDAPANDAPANDAPANDA" Brown"Panda"Bear followed these teachings and told all of his fellow Starcraft 2 players that editing was not allowed. Said the BrownBear: On September 08 2010 13:30 BrownBear wrote: 7. Editing posts. Editing posts is not allowed for any reason. The mods can see your edits, and if you are caught, you will look suspicious. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be owned.Please do not edit; this is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything. This Panda had learned in PandaHistory Class. But now, as he sat in the majesty that is The Ultimate Council, he saw another Panda, CynanMachae, being accused of working with the dreadful PandaPoachers. But Panda was hesitant, so he went to The Wise Panda Sage, who looked through time to see CynanMachae's previous history, and found them to be consistant with his current play. The Wise Panda Sage gave to Panda his analysis. 1.Cynan Machae's previous play is characterized as 3-4 sentence long posts every now and then, with a long post happening once or twice a game. While Panda noted this does not mean he's innocent, and indeed Panda was watching him closely, it does mean we should take this into context. Then Panda stopped speaking in Panda Tongue because its hard to write good analysis of people and/or subjects with analogies to concepts. So Panda beheaded the writer and lived happily ever after. End Story Alright, so a 1.While originally I was in support of DT claiming if he found red, I now believe we should not. With 5 mafia, DT's will be a very useful addition to regular scum hunting. In addition, if he does not claim but merely post up an analysis of that person and convince everyone he's mafia, then mafia don't even know that he is definitely DT. If said DT does get a mafia lynched, medics can/perhaps should protect him just in case. If you know someone's mafia while you haven't managed to convince people without saying "I'm DT and I checked him", then you should, as it will still mean we will be only one mafia away from lowering mafia (regular) kp to 1. So that's my input there. Who to Lynch Today: Alright, so not everyone has posted, meaning some are definitely going to get modkilled. That is not good. Here's the list of inactives in my eyes + Show Spoiler + 1. JeeJee 2. bumatlarge 3. Bill Murray-excuse, but is it unexecused????!!! Dundundun! 10.SINiquity 11.XeliN 12.kane]deth[ 15.infinitestory 16.cSc. Still needs to post content. 20.drag_- seems confused =D. Its alright, at first I thought mafia was a UMS BW custom map. XD(I mean, I just kept hearing people say “Infested Terran and DT) 7 people have not posted(the bolded ones.) I don't count Cynan as inactive and Nobody should vote for him because his actions thus far are in accordance with his previous play. That's not to say I'm not watching him(I am) but he's not that suspicious to me. While I believe at least 3 of those inactives will eventually post, I am hesitant to lynch someone who will be modkilled. However, I can find no sufficient evidence as of now to suggest one of the active is mafia. So as of now we have a few possible people, so I will RNG between the inactives, and it is: Xelin. | ||
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Pandain
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But Infun has only made this post, and it really adds no content of his own, while he "seems" to be contributing with roughly 2 decent paragraphs. Here's the post: On October 05 2010 04:39 Infundibulum wrote: You are correct, Element 91. But Amber is also right that there are ways for the detective to push lynches on reds he checks, without role-claiming. If you are a detective I suggest you get creative; only roleclaim if you feel it is necessary. If you are a detective, you should probably read this page (if you haven't already) just to get an idea of the ways in which other people (namely mafias and medics) will be trying to find you in the thread: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=JEEP's_Tells_for_Finding_the_Cop I think that's a pretty good comprehensive guide, but if there's any problems in it hopefully a more experienced player can point them out. | ||
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On October 06 2010 05:40 meeple wrote: Whoa whoa... weird defense of cynan... the votes against him were just to bump him back into posting... which he did, so those should eventually fade away to other, more suitable targets. However, he's definitely not in enough danger for another townie to worry about him getting the chop. This makes a lot more sense if you're an anxious red protecting your buddy... o.O Forgive me then, I was under the (I now see) false impression that while the first vote was just to get him talking that the second post was either a quick bandwagon(doubt it thought) or more likely a townie who's just confused. I was worried that he might get bandwagoned just because we really don't have that many good choices. Rereading, its clear to me they were for that purpose. However, I should point out that I did not say Cynan was innocent, rather that we don't have enough evidence to lynch him. | ||
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Pandain
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On October 06 2010 05:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote: To be fair, we don't have enough "evidence" to lynch anybody really. That's the thing. Really the only person who still wouldn't have posted yet is either 1.Inactive Mafia 2.Inactive Townie. 3.Person who's going to post soon I honestly expect at least 2, if not 3 modkills, and don't want to waste my vote on a modkill. So I've looked over the thread, and decided to pick the most suscipcious out of everyone who's posted. Infun is a decent if not good player, I would expect more out of him. But your right, we really don't have any evidence(which is probably the main reason day 1 lynches are almost always off). But this is the most likely in my opinion. Even though this might make me look more "suspicious"(and might get me lynched if he is mafia), we should not lynch Cynan. this is why I defended him. I don't want him to get bandwagoned. At least he's posted a bit, and while it may suggest info of my alignment based on his result, its definitely not certain. | ||
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My main reason is that I don't think we should lynch Cynan, and Infun is the best person we have. I think we should make a stand right here, and everyone should start to vote for someone, since the way it stands now it is too easy for mafia to manipulate the votes and it will be 100% NOT a scum lynched. | ||
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On October 06 2010 07:49 ghrur wrote: Speaking of lynching, I strongly suggest against group voting, or in other words Don't agree to bandwagon onto a random vote Don't agree to use individual RNGs and votes If we bandwagon onto a random vote, how can we know if the person voting is or isn't mafia? If we use a RNG, how can we be sure Mafia isn't rigging the votes and using the RNG as an out? Also, once again, I'm against voting an inactive so early on because A. They could get modkilled. Do we want to waste a lynch? B. Does it put pressure on them if they can't see the votes due to a busy schedule? C. Inactives could be very helpful later on. D. Mafia hardly ever hides in inactives. Personally, I'll probably read through the voting thread later and see who votes what and let that influence my choice because I'm still new. xD Learning how a veteran votes could be helpful! While these are different reasons for why I no longer am lynching an inactive, it is the same conclusion however. I think we SHOULD make a stand on who to lynch. We hardly have any time left (what, 3 hours?) Right now mafia can manipulate the vote so easily. I'm lynching Infunidibulum because he's posted without really posting, he gave a link to a site which, while perhaps worthwhile to look at, isn't really superb. And sure, we don't really get that much info, but who else do we get info from? I mean, theres the supposed "Cynan-Pandain" connection, but of course I know it won't really amount to anything. | ||
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On October 06 2010 08:12 DoctorHelvetica wrote: There are better candidates for the "posting without posting" thing, two of which I mentioned earlier. Infund has contributed by posting some information which might help some of our blues conduct themselves better and avoid being hit by the mafia. Yeah it doesn't take a whole lot of effort but it's something. Crysis is new and has even more content than Infund. Nuke the bunny actually has been contributing, and has posted 8 times. Infun, however, is an expierenced player. He's by far the best bet in this situation(albeit wouldn't be if like 7 people weren't going to be modkilled) | ||
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Pandain
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On October 06 2010 09:07 DoctorHelvetica wrote: crisis_ hasn't contributed anything. I didn't catch Nukes first post where he does contribute a worthwhile opinion but Crisis_ hasn't done anything but agree or disagree with other people without offering anything himself. cSc hasn't offered anything and is just asking people to think for him. however this is not something I think mafia would do, I wouldn't vote to lynch him. Unless you can find a post where crisis_ contributed something useful I'm voting for him. What I find even more interesting is this post He insists he has been participating in active discussion and has been helping the DT but look at his post: he didn't contribute anything he just quotes another post and agrees He's new. What he considers "contributing" may be less than what you do. Point is, he gave his opinions, and at least actually helped. Also, stop twisitng his words. He had been contributing in discussion on that subject(those posts were around the same page), while Infun has not at all besides that post in the begining. In addition, Crysis is at least putting himself out there with opinions, while Infun can't be linked to having a strong opinion on anything. All he did was link a site, and if its bad info, he can just say "Oh, sorry." And we still can't tell what his views are on anything. Don't forget, just linking a site which *may* help someone isn't unknown to mafia, mafia pretend to "help" all the time. But what I find most interesting is why you are so caught up in this. You even claim yourself, "We don't have evidence on anyone really" and were inactive up until infun started getting accused. But I'll just leave that as food for thought, as a valuable townie would be contributing none the less. Still, I've got my eyes on you O.O. On October 06 2010 09:19 Bill Murray wrote: I did pick up on that, but Pandain could just as easily be a Detective trying to defend someone, or a townie with a loud mouth. DT's can't investigate till night 2 On October 06 2010 09:22 Misder wrote: Actually, I’m just going to vote ~Opz~ right now instead of XeliN, just because of this tiny suspicion. I don’t know if I truly believe in that he is mafia, but I think he has a better chance at being mafia than XeliN. Why? At least Opz is being active, and he always posts scum like. He's like cynan, suscipcious, but playing his normal style so that must be remembered. Obviously some people are gonig to be modkilled. We should go after the people who will not, but have barely contributed(or go under the "guise" of contributing). | ||
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On October 06 2010 09:46 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Why do you keep saying infund contributed nothing? That guide would be very helpful for new DT's and he contributed some helpful advice which will keep our blues alive while crisis contributed 0 original information. Infund did throw out a strong opinion which was that blues shouldn't roleclaim and that they should play outside of conventional play style while crisis just agreed/disagreed with other people i understand he is new but to say he doesn't fit the profile of a non-contributing player masquerading as an active townie while infund does is just stupid. I don't think he's even likely mafia but you seem pretty bent on infund being scum while other people fit your reasoning better I'm not saying he's contributed nothing, I'm saying he really hasn't contributed anything to this game. Plainly, Infun is a better and much more obvious choice than Crysis, who has at least been trying to contribute. And plainly I think he has been. Decent 3 paragraphs, but how does it help? Those who post without content are spammers, those who write essays without content are scum. Hyperbole, obviously, and I don't know for sure that infun is 100% scum. But I do know he's a better lynch in my eyes. Plainly, Infun has not contributed at all. He linked to a website, but anyone can really do that. Again, mafia will appear to help people all the time. And you don't always have to lie, or even want to lie as scum. (See: Ace's mafia guide). You're saying crysis is a better lynch than Infun. How? Crysis has at least attempted to contribute, and is new, so his posts will obviously be shorter than normal. He is adapting to this game, to accuse him and declare him mafia because he hasn't contributed "meaningfully" is the wrong conclusion. Instead, realize he is contributing, and push him to contribute more. Crysis makes 3 posts, talking about what he feels. Infun makes one in the very beginning, linking to a "helpful site." Then he disappears. Tell me which is the better choice. | ||
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On October 06 2010 09:34 Bill Murray wrote: 4) He was curious as to how I knew Pandain was the DT when he knows I am a good player Also, wtf? I never told you if I am or am not DT. and if I was, it would be wise not to reveal it. But I'm willing to soak up hits, let the mafia hit me  | ||
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Also, who is smurfing as Protcat. Please tell, then I can analyze him better. + Show Spoiler + Frick I'm starting to spam, I'll stop :p | ||
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On October 06 2010 10:22 CynanMachae wrote: Wow, am I really leading in votes so far? Lynching me would really be a bad idea. I agree with all of you that Padain's posting is a bit weird on defending me, since he can't know that I'm not mafia from my 2 posts and saying I'm playing the same as usual is really not much cause I don't think I've even changed my playstyle much in games were I was mafia, and these two posts really don't say anything right now. So, since Padain can't know I'm not mafia (no detective play yet), the only way that he can be sure that I'm town is if he's mafia himself. He's probably hoping I do get lynched and can play the "told you so" card then. Not that I think it's a wise decision for a mafia but else I don't see why he would be defending me. The only reason I would see is if he believed we should lynch people that are more inactive, but he didn't seem to suggest that. Of Course! I forgot the first sentence in the Mafia Handbook Rule 1: When people only have two votes on them, start defending them so they get lynched. If you defend it enough, then you can get him lynched! I'm not saying your not under suscipcion(I specifically said I was still keeping an eye on you), instead I said you should not be lynched. Originally I had misread the intentions of the votes on you as being serious votes, so I got a bit worried since I do not believe there is enough evidence that you are mafia, while I have suscipions of other players(namely Infund). I'm not sure your town, I'm saying I'm unsure. Also, I'm Pandain, not Padain. =D @Dr. H: I've reread Infund's post, and noticed he did give his opinion that dt should not roleclaim but be creative. So I'm a bit more unsure, but don't think Crysis is mafia either. Still, I'm going to leave what I said there for people to consider. Hmmm..... I'll wait for Proctat's post before deciding more. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 10:25 Protactinium wrote: I won't reveal myself, since that would take effort. Somebody else can graciously do it and save me the trouble if he/she would like. Nvm, I'll just spill the beans. I'm Protact. Yes, I like to debate with myself. | ||
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On October 06 2010 10:37 Infundibulum wrote: The reason I haven't been posting is because I haven't been home since last night (>24h ago) when I made that first post. Thanks for getting my back while I was gone Dr H. Pandain, anybody can link to a website - but I'm the one who did. I don't think I've seen that guide before on TL at all, and frankly guides like that are something we could use more of on TL so that people can learn to play in non-PM games. You said it isn't superb though. So what would you add? Also Misder, I'm still waiting to see your list of suspects that you talked about before. Just to make me happy, mind posting some more content? For example, what to do in this situation, with like 2 modkills going to happen. Honestly, like Dr.H said, we don't really have any evidence. My main reason for voting you was because you seemed the most likely, but really you in itself were only possibly 50% mafia. But just post some more and I'll probably change my vote. I'm going to review everyone thus far that's posted, and decide. Hopefully I'll make a somewhat confident decision. | ||
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On October 06 2010 11:08 Infundibulum wrote: Not just infinitestory, ghrur as well. You guys better post your reasoning for these votes on Element 91. Agreed. Things that must happen: 1.Sinquity post a decent sized paragraph or more of content 2. Infinitestory and ghurur explain your votes. I'm voting infinite story for that since he hasn't posted either. (At least he's online! Now pressure him to speak)\ As of right now we are in a deadly situation. The greatest number of votes on a person is 3, while mafia have 5 players. Mafia can and probably will influence the outcome of this lynch. I've suggested we therefore stick to a single person since at least we will have a chance at lynching mafia(rather than the 99% chance that mafia will manipulate the voting if a mafia is getting lynched.) I was going to suggest Infun, but am less sure now. + Show Spoiler + On the side note, I have now figured out who it is. Hehe Element 91. | ||
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On October 06 2010 11:24 infinitestory wrote: Well, then can you offer a logical argument as to why mafia would abstain from night-killing village idiot if village idiot is exposed and town makes the threat I outlined above? I would be glad to hear any thoughtful criticism, as this plan needs to work perfectly to actually get rid of that idiotic nuisance. Basically, if the town's going to be that much of a panda poacher than mafia can just do the same thing. They don't hit the VI. Then what? We doom ourselves? Chances are we change our mind and the mafia are 1 up on us. Basically, the plan revolves entirely around wifom, which should rarely be used in mafia. Alright, we have two explantions from why they voted Proctat. What about you, Sinquity? | ||
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"Didn't reveal who he was" (Sinquity) "Bill Murray voted for him and I wanted to fit in"(Infinite Story) "This way mafia can't manipulate the vote away to a different person"(Nuke da bunnies) "Panic voted, looked back, but i would've voted for a different person! Plus, I think he's VI now(says this after Protact heavily hints at it)" (Bumatlarge) "Bill Murray" Alright reason "Tried to get dt to reveal, bill murray seems sure(albeit that reason is less than sound as he couldn't really be), smurfs are uncool and unhelpful" (Ghrur) "Stuck between a rock and a hard place"(I'm assuming this means because he was tied for second place?) (Crisis) Overall, horrible reasons. Almost all of these people are newcomers as well, meaning theres a chance this might've just been a fail on the town part. I'll be looking through these people in addition to some others. I actually assume only 1-2(doubt 2) mafia would be on this list, but theres a good chance there might be none. But of course that's all speculation, just some thoughts I'm having. DT should probably check Xelin. Even though it might be nothing, Brownbear's accidental tell might actually be suggesting something. On October 07 2010 09:18 LSB wrote: Divinek is being pretty active Pandian is writing weird stories again. That probably means he's Red or Blue Bum says he's going on VI watch, that would be something Mafia would like to get recognized as Could someone tell me a bit more? Then again, DoctorH hasn't played for a while, so maybe his reentry means that he's willing to put in more effort As for the Newcomers, I haven't read much, but it should be pretty easy to tell if one of them is Green. Are any of them superactive? Lastly, Someone go Protect/Investigate Xelin. Brownbear just told us straight out that he's Red or Blue And what does this post do? You repeat stuff, don't give opinion, and speculation. Nothing full of content. And fyi, I always write stories. See: my first game! I'll start the analysis by the end of the next day cycle. Expect to do some serious scum hunting. Right now I have a few suspects, but no real analysis as of now. But if I die I want you guys to look at some people in particular: 1.Infinite Story 2.Bumatlarge Also possibly a infun+dr. H connection. Just speculation n.n So, in conclusion: 1. Medics should protect who you think is going to get hit, people you think are blues, and people you think are innocent. In this case, even Xelin might be a good protection. 2.DT's should check some of the intresting people in this case. I would suggest checking either Dr. H or Xelin, or someone you think you have a real good read on. I have a sneaking suscipcion of Dr. H which as of now unverified but I shall delve into tommorow. 3.Protact once again proves that kitties want the downfall of mankind | ||
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Analysis will be ready in ~10 mins | ||
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Summary: Overall, BM, you have been unproductive, contradictory, blatantly obvious, using logical fallacies, and all the while under the protection of "I'm BM." Yet in the first post I quoted you said you only do the "one line spam" when your scum(or in this case VI) However, I do think there is a high chance of him being VI. Therefore, I propose we lynch someone else and vigi him tonight. Also, in the scenario in which he doesn't die, we lynch him. This way we get rid of all possible avenues. If he is VI, he will be killed unless mafia get a lucky roleblock(or unlucky, since they will lose next day) or a medic is really "interesting" and protects him. But that won't happen. If he is mafia, then he will either die or be lynched tommorow. If he is town, he will just die. But in the scenario he is either GF or we have no vigi, I also propose we vote double Lynch for tommorow, for him and another person, or just 2 new suspects. I feel we will have far enough evidence to analyze. I believe I have shown sufficient proof of BM being anti town, and urge you all to consider and comment. I will tackle the "Oh BM always does this" by analyzing his posts in previous games as mafia and town. Hopefully that will be done by tommorow at the VERY latest, hopefully by today. His posts this game: On September 13 2010 00:48 Bill Murray wrote: I could agree somewhat, though I am actually quite terrible at scum, now, due to my town game improving a little. My scum game is still primarily one-liner-esque, whereas my blue/green game has ascended to being more content-oriented. Pre game. Note this very much. Now, in Team Melee Mafia Bill Murray actually made some sense and had decent sized posts, and definitely didn't spam. In his own words, he's playing his own scum game. On October 05 2010 12:12 Bill Murray wrote: I'm here. I just started my first day of work, so I don't know if I'll be able to be as active as I have in the past. Haven't gotten to read the thread yet, as I just worked a twelve hour day, but I promise I'll make an informed post tomorrow. Basically the only post in day 1. RL issues can occur, but note that he's just making an excuse for inactivity. Now, I believe that he had RL stuff for a number of reasons: 1.If we were going after inactives, why would he seem so inactive? Even though he has an excuse, it might've been better for a full post. So slightly unlikely. 2.His mafia brothers probably would have been like "OMG BM HURRY UP AND POST SO THEY DONT LYNCH YOU." Note that this whole post and its explanation revolve around wifom, but I believe logical wifom. Obviously does not clear him, however. On October 06 2010 08:21 Bill Murray wrote: At a glance, I see that people have been editing. I am not a fan of that. I see DoctorH is being active. That may or may not be a good thing. I am going to go read the thread and get off the inactive list. I'll make an informed post in a moment... possibly an hour. *yawn* Says nothing, but its alright, as long as he makes a great post right? On October 06 2010 09:18 Bill Murray wrote: i like this kingjames guy. i'm also happy with amber and pandain so far. BAD! BAD BILL MURRAY! What is this? He gives three opinions in one sentence without backing any of it up. How is he happy with amber or I? Why does he like kingjames? Posting without content, its the same as voting without a reason. Both scum like. On October 06 2010 09:19 Bill Murray wrote: I did pick up on that, but Pandain could just as easily be a Detective trying to defend someone, or a townie with a loud mouth. Doesn't make sense, first of all if I am a detective I wouldn't know yet(can't check.) On October 06 2010 09:34 Bill Murray wrote: first off: @NukeTheBunnys, do you even read the thread? Buddying. At least to me it is. Admittedly, Mafia buddy town all the time, but if Misder flips scum so will ~OpZ~. Therefore, I am considering voting Misder. To all the people hunting for the DT, posting about "strategy" in relation to lynches, and cluttering up the thread with speculation and policy: most of you will be the M words of mafia. I'm talking to you, Amber, Protactinium, Misder, Happy.Fairytaile, ~OpZ~, SouthRawrea, and Crisis_ Furthermore, I like this post. It shows that DoctorH and I are on the same page. I am not sure as to his role, but I am pretty sure he is Town. Detectives typically defend people they find to be town. Combine that with his beating himself up over changing his vote to OpZ, your fishing for why I feel he's DT (when you know my actions are money as fuck), your DT fishing on your own earlier in the thread, and I present to you Bill Murray's first mafia catch of the game: Protactinium. Points: 1) as seen from the TL Mafia game I hosted, he is fitting in with his mafia meta. He makes huge "pro-town" posts as mafia. As town he is way more argumentative. I can provide the difference, but I would have to indicate who he is. 2) he is a fucking smurf who has another name on this site 3) He was fishing for the DT and "discussing" who the DT was, how to find him, and what he should do 4) He was curious as to how I knew Pandain was the DT when he knows I am a good player vote to lynch protactinium Here is his long "informed" post. Couple of things to note: 1.He says Dr. H is probably town. Compare this with his recent accusation of him, along with opz and BC. Now, opinions can change, so I'll have more to say as I review more posts. 2. A series of logical fallacies and random conclusions from facts. On October 06 2010 09:34 Bill Murray wrote: first off: @NukeTheBunnys, do you even read the thread? Buddying. At least to me it is. Admittedly, Mafia buddy town all the time, but if Misder flips scum so will ~OpZ~. Therefore, I am considering voting Misder. Opz asked Misder to share his suspect list. Therefore, they are buddying and both mafia despite the fact Opz has been suscipcious of Misder this whole game. Not logical. On October 06 2010 09:34 Bill Murray wrote: To all the people hunting for the DT, posting about "strategy" in relation to lynches, and cluttering up the thread with speculation and policy: most of you will be the M words of mafia. I'm talking to you, Amber, Protactinium, Misder, Happy.Fairytaile, ~OpZ~, SouthRawrea, and Crisis_ Starts hatin' on the strategy and talking about policy, claiming they are "cluttering up the thread." Yet he spams just in the last 5 pages like cwazy. Also he tells them to stop hunting for the DT yet publicly announces I'm the DT. IN THE SAME POST! On October 06 2010 09:34 Bill Murray wrote: Points: 1) as seen from the TL Mafia game I hosted, he is fitting in with his mafia meta. He makes huge "pro-town" posts as mafia. As town he is way more argumentative. I can provide the difference, but I would have to indicate who he is. 2) he is a fucking smurf who has another name on this site 3) He was fishing for the DT and "discussing" who the DT was, how to find him, and what he should do 4) He was curious as to how I knew Pandain was the DT when he knows I am a good player vote to lynch protactinium His evidence against Proctatorium. Let's see his evidence against him: 1. Makes pro town posts 2.Smurf 3.Fishing for the DT(How? And you just claimed I'm the DT, yet bashed Proctat for "trying to find the DT and who he was." Utter hypocricy. 4.How would you know I'm DT? I am in utter shock how Protact got lynched. It was horrible, and should've ended the game if not for Brown Bear's mercy. All of these points are illogical and in error, to the extreme. Bill Murray knows better. Even though he may seem stupid and is sometimes illogical, he's not to this extreme. This is scum/VI BM. On October 06 2010 09:47 Bill Murray wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=133561 Protactinium is scum, guys, honestly Great evidence. Are you TRYING to get yourself lynched? Notice he's making so many logical fallacies. And noticable too. Recently he's just started random spamming and claiming to lynch people because they claimed "town". I'm so confused by him. On October 06 2010 10:11 Bill Murray wrote: OK. It's not fair. If I want to meta him, and provide both town and mafia games, I have to say who he is. That is NOT FAIR to me making a case on him. Alright, you were able to after a while. Where's your case? On October 06 2010 13:50 Bill Murray wrote: Well, I knew he was anti-town what do you all expect? lol *sighs* You claimed he was mafia(or one really good VI). We expected him not to be VI. For all purposes, BM got a townie lynched, not only that but a good one too. Mafia doesn't know who the VI is, so for all intents and purposes if mafia pushed forward this lynch it would be aimed at a very experienced town. Also notes he said he knew he was anti town, yet one of the reasons he voted for him was because he made pro town posts. What the fadoodle? On October 06 2010 14:02 Bill Murray wrote: if we're restarting, can i not be a townie? Two posts before the previous one here, Brownbear clearly said the game will not end. In fact, just after posting it, BM would've been able to see it. In fact, Brown bear responds to something else and BM responds to that. Note this was 5 minutes after Brownbear clearly said we were not restarting, and BM responded in between. So it's 100% certain BM knew the game would not end. So why would he claim town? 1.He's mafia 2.He's VI 3. He has a horrible disease which makes him have short term memory loss every 5 minutes. Bill Murray does not make sense. On October 06 2010 14:03 Bill Murray wrote: I am obviously tore up that I influenced the lynch of the village idiot, and though he is not-town, I feel bad for us as a whole. I had originally thought the game was going to end/restart, and that the roles had not gone out, to where it would be OK to edit. Sorry. For rizzles? Look back at that previous post my nizzle. Then start thinking out of your grizzle some more. Note he claims feeling bad for lynching him, yet now he proudly proclaims it. Contradictions everywhere, my friend. On October 06 2010 14:05 Bill Murray wrote: me stop spamming is like asking you to not be asian or smurf Remember that first post of yours? How you were becoming more content oriented and now only spammed as scum(or perhaps VI)? Eh? On October 06 2010 14:06 Bill Murray wrote: nighty night guys don't let the VIs bite Pure wifom and speculative, but I thought it might be interesting to note he said VIs instead of the singular VI. Implying theres more than one VI. Still, just wordplay analysis. + Show Spoiler + On October 07 2010 13:35 Bill Murray wrote: This shows to me that the person who is putting the hits in sucks at blue sniping. Let me decide who is high tier enough to call the shots yet not hit a blue. 1. LSB 3. Bill Murray 4. Pandain 5. SouthRawrea 6. Amber[LighT] 7. Infundibulum 8. Divinek 9. Misder 10.SINiquity 11.XeliN 12.RebirthOfLegend 13.~OpZ~ 14.DoctorHelvetica 15.infinitestory 16.cSc ->17. 18.NukeTheBunnys 19.Crisis_ 20.drag_ 21.CynanMachae 22.meeple 23.kingjames01 24.ghrur Doing an iso on slot 17 I have viewed this post as gloating, and rolefishing. Why would BloodyC0bbler have reason to be fishing for a medic? Consider the fact that Happy.Fairytale was spouting babble about the DT, and I am very happy voting to lynch slot 17 which was Happy.Fairytale and is now BloodyC0bbler. Posts 234/235 by Happy.Fairytale were posts to fake being useful to the town Post 255 is him fishing for Detectives through number "analysis" Post 257 by Happy.Fairytale: Please read this+ Show Spoiler + On October 05 2010 23:19 Happy.fairytail wrote: Yeah, I'm pretty concerned that we could potentially have 8 mod deaths by the end of today. (Not worried about Bill Murray and Cynan, it seems they're around and will post in time) Also, in terms of accusations, I think we should start now. We only have 14 hours before the day ends, so we should give a few hours to accusations, a few hours to defending, a few hours to some townsperson deliberation, and a few hours to vote. So inactives, now is the time for you guys to start speaking up. I'm going to point out JeeJee just 'cuz he's at the top of the inactive list, and I know he's around because I just checked his post history and his last post was 10 hrs ago (13:09 TL time). So speak up man. This shows that he is just talking for the sake of talking. This makes the second time in a row he has posted right after his original post. If he was town, he would only need one really lengthy post, or a string of spam. I believe he is putting on a false face. I hope that you all will be convinced of Happy.Fairytale/BloodyC0bbler (remember, they're the same person as the slot) being scum. BC's play is a LOT weaker as scum based upon meta, and his play this game is so weak I wasn't even sure he was even IN the game. These two things are nearly an open contradiction. "I haven't read 12 pages" followed immediately by 35 minutes and then "I had all this analysis done on this awesome spreadsheet". BULLSHIT. Lynch BloodyC0bbler. Spoilered for your convienance. This whole post is interesting, so let's analyze it. "Let's see who is high tier enough to not hit a blue." Couple of things wrong with this: 1. Because they did not hit a blue, they are bad at blue sniping. False. 2. Because of this, they must be so high tier so they didn't hit a blue. False. Why the fadoodle would they not hit a blue? 3.BC would be high tier enough to not hit a blue. False. In BM's own game BC basically led the mafia, leading to blue snipe after blue snipe. As you may note we are seeing a series of logical fallacies and incorrect reasoning. To the extreme. Note the process above. It does not make sense at all. People may just say "Oh, he's BM and he's just stupid." But that's how he won penalty mafia, and if someone has gone to this extreme they are not pro town. Again he also claims BC is fishing for blues, yet what the frick? He is not at all. There is no way you could get that out of what Proctat was saying, or BC. He's being stupid, for the sake of being stupid. However, the contradiction is the (only) valuable part of this, and while interesting, is too easily explained by a myriad of what happened in RL, and we do not have happy tail with us. BM is proving far more interesting anyway. On October 07 2010 13:43 Bill Murray wrote: If you don't agree, I'm probably going to label you as scum. You are now approaching a conundrum, a twilight zone if you will. Do you bus your partner if you are scum in this situation? "Sure, Bill, BC is scum" when you know he is to build townie cred? I don't put it past you, and perhaps I shouldn't fill you in on the ability to do that as it can be a viable tactic, but here at TeamLiquid players are usually very loyal to their scumbuddies. Watch out how you respond to someone else's case, DoctorH. If you have something bad to say, it is usually better to not say anything at all. To Dr. H. Starts to insinuate he's scum on no basis. On October 07 2010 13:54 Bill Murray wrote: My analysis is seeing ~OpZ~, DoctorH, and BC as mafia My last analysis lynched an anti-town player. If I really "lost us the game", why is it still going? I just got a VI smurf out of the game. So much that's wrong with this. First of all, you should've lost us the game. You lynched a person that should've seemed pro town, but because your'e either scum or mafia you're playing stupid and spammy. Unfortunately, you got alot of new players to support you in day 1. This shall not happen again . Also still thinks Doctor H is mafia, despite nothing having changed from when he thought he was town. On October 07 2010 13:55 Bill Murray wrote: oh, wait, did I SAY TOWN? Right after a previous post. Stop trying to prove your' town by finding "tells" in YOUR OWN posts. Anyone knows this is pointless, so why are you doing it? Because you're mafia, or VI(mostly VI). On October 07 2010 13:58 Bill Murray wrote: lets have an open roleclaim. BC, you first. I'm town, but I'm not saying what at this point people can say "no, we shouldn't roleclaim, it is way too early". I just want people to claim town/townie, not what role they are. If I was mafia, I wouldn't have the balls to say this. This is too obvious to be the play of mafia. Lynch BC if I get mislynched. If he flips red, look at ~OpZ~ and DoctorH. If you all want to win, listen to me. Claim. I'm claiming town. We need to consolidate through claims. Trust me on this one, and we will have a good game. Stupid stupid stupid argument. Made up of wifom("If I was mafia I wouldn't have the balls to say this. This is too obvious."). Made up of stupidity(let's open roleclaim!) Made up of no content( Just trust me.) On October 07 2010 13:59 Bill Murray wrote: The fact I am pretty sure I know who 3 high-level mafia are Is that good enough for you? Do I need to be a martyr for the town to win? Make me a martyr, DoctorH, get me lynched so they can see I'm town. This post sets me off. It's like he's asking to be lynched. If he was town, why would he asked to be lynched? In addition, he can't know who the 3 mafia already are. He's asking Dr. H to lynch him(still think's hes mafia, remember that!). The only reason he would want that is if he is VI. On October 07 2010 14:05 Bill Murray wrote: we are getting EVERYONE to say they're town or whatever. If I flip, lynch BC/OpZ. DoctorH is possibly cleared. Oh, now he claims Doctor H might be cleared. Yet shouldn't his plan confirm or condemn them? On October 07 2010 14:09 Bill Murray wrote: I already got the VI lynched, and out of our hair. There is no way he put more than one. That would make the game very gay. He also wouldn't have said "protactinium is an amazing player" if there were a lot of them. I have a serious plan. Everyone needs to claim something in their next post. Don't use your blue role names, just say "town", unless you are a mad hatter with a bomb on BC In which case I can direct your next bomb. Hell, if you're a mad hatter, just claim to have a bomb on BC and we can roll with that role. I would be able to analyze and tell you who to put your next bomb on, especially if you are an inexperienced player who needs guidance. Fail logic. First off, he fishes for mad hatter(ACTUALLY does), outright saying "Just claim to me. Especially if you are inexpierenced and need guidance" Don't fall for this trick, new folk. Also, how the frick does Brownbear saying "Protact is an amazing player" make there be only one VI. Right now BM is just trying to use a tactic I call "Appeal to Impulse". This is where he says a point, attempts to get someone to do something, and quickly before anyone can really talk about it. Here he's just spamming "everyone claim now! Next post! Do it!" Also, note in his plan Blues would also put "Town" or "townie". OF course, according to Opz Artanis sent him Townie. But don't claim this plan means he's town, it catches the blues as well. And now he has been trying to convince the new people to claim as soon as possible. When I say claim, note I don't just mean the role claim. By claiming, BM the Scum would know if they were blue as well IF he trusted the majority. From there he could work out the blues. For he himself wouldn't know the exact wording if he was scum. Really the only reason he would start to begin such an insane plan is if he knew it was stupid, he knew it would cause controversy. He's red or VI. The plan should be discarded. We can analyze it for why it would've been sent out, but please not how people respond. And according to Opz, theres more than one way people got it. So it's really useless. Most importantly, it ruins the spirit of the game, and makes babies go berserk when they see it and go emo later in life. Now begins the mass use of "Appeal to Impulse" + Show Spoiler + On October 07 2010 14:10 Bill Murray wrote: ~OpZ~ you're playing well, I'll admit that, but you are better as mafia than BC. You are Town, right? I'm Town. Honest. Appeal to impulse gogogogogogogooggo On October 07 2010 14:22 Bill Murray wrote: I lynched an anti-town role. Are you dumb? Are you town or not? Claim something. Claim Town/Townie/MadHatter with a bomb on BC plz Appeal to impulse gogogogogogogogogogo On October 07 2010 14:23 Bill Murray wrote: Pretty sure ~OpZ~ is mafia OpZ, claim something bro Appeal to impulse gogogogogogogogogogo On October 07 2010 14:25 Bill Murray wrote: ~OpZ~ claim something Are you Town/Townie? pick one Gogogogogogogogogogogoggogogogogogo On October 07 2010 14:31 Bill Murray wrote: no doctorh is fine you, however, are not claim gogogogogogogogogogogogogog On October 07 2010 14:32 Bill Murray wrote: go read your role PM opz are you a town or are you a townie? gogogogogogogogogogogogo On October 07 2010 14:32 Bill Murray wrote: are you a hatter? *starts panting* Go.go.go.gogogogoogo *breathes* On October 07 2010 14:32 Bill Murray wrote: just go read your role pm and tell me if you are town *panting, deep breathes* go.....go....go.....go.... On October 07 2010 14:32 Bill Murray wrote: it's red, isn't it? random speculation yay On October 07 2010 14:46 Bill Murray wrote: Furthermore, James, you need to claim Town/Townie go..............go.......*very faint* On October 07 2010 14:46 Bill Murray wrote: You, too, infinitestory. .................................g.g...g.(can't finish) On October 07 2010 14:49 Bill Murray wrote: that someone is you. Happy.Fairytale is you. Are you disputing that? you replaced into his slot. That's you. Deal with it. I'm not going to stop spamming until you claim either a) town b) townie c) you don't claim and we lynch you to see what you'll flip *looks with open mouth, sweat everywhere, can't say anymore* On October 07 2010 14:51 Bill Murray wrote: which did you pick as your godfather fakerole, BC? Town or Townie? *dead* Now, after all that we see he reveals his"Majestic plan" On October 07 2010 14:57 Bill Murray wrote: ok, here is our lynch for today opz fell right into my trap town = green in this game. OH, you just fell for it TOO LOL EBWOP FOR THE WIN I WAS RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I AM AMAZING AT MAFIA LOL BC AND OPZ JUST GOT OWNED. From the OP: GREEN = TOWN BC + OPZ DONT REALIZE BC + OPZ = MAFIA GG. I''m sorry, but this plan is and was horrible, and disproved because it was revealed people were sent town or townie. In addition, you're giving mafia a 50% chance of getting it "right"(which turned out to be either). I won't comment anymore because of what Brownbear said. But seriously, I'm disgusted. I'm not usually this strong about an issue, but this ruins the spirit of the game. And I'm saddened with myself that I even have to comment this much into viewing why you might propose it, however far away from actually comparing pms might be. It's a good plan, but against the spirit of the game. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
On October 08 2010 06:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote: great analysis pandain. I did play in a game with BM where he was town and spammed like this but in a game with the possibility of several village idiots it's far too dangerous to lynch him. who is your suspect for todays lynch out of curiosity? ty, but really the hardest part was just collecting all the posts. If you have all the pieces, the picture is easy to see. Except I still need to see if it's the same picture on the box(aka, previous games.) I'm thinking about Misder and BC. I'm uncertain though and could very well change(for example I thought meeple was mafia in Team melee mafia and analyzed him and found him pro town) I'll post analysis on Misder most likely, I'll wait for BC. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
And well well, what do we have here LSB? I was looking over Infun, not expecting much, when I noticed you left out some posts of his. On October 06 2010 11:08 Infundibulum wrote: Not just infinitestory, ghrur as well. You guys better post your reasoning for these votes on Element 91. On October 06 2010 12:24 Infundibulum wrote: this is awful reasoning. we want to lynch the people that we think are mafia. so far i haven't seen a convincing case made against Protact, and there's definitely no consensus. all there is is a bandwagon. How about we flip it: I'm worried that Protact is town and that we're going to lynch a townie, putting us even farther behind after modkills. I voted for gruhr because he bandwagoned on Protact, and this is a huge contradiction to his pretty well thought out posts earlier. Two posts with an underlying suscipcion of Ghrur. Now, this in itself wouldn't be interesting, but the fact you left them out is. I'm going to analyze LSB as well tonight. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
Misder. Summary: Overall, Misder is a suspicious character. He has some mild contradictions, but the only one that really stands out is his stance on lynching Xelin despite saying he didn't want to vote for an inactive. Besides that, another scum trait I notice is he doesn't explain stuff, so he brings up accusations and then no reasoning. In addition, he has played a stark contrast in his previous two games(mafia) from his first game(town.) The misder in the first game was decisive and contributive, while this misder prefers to take a backseat. A common trait of Mafia Misder is appealing to others, inactivity(discounting his defense in XXX) and to a certain extent wishy washiness. I would be alright with lynching Misder tonight, however I urge you all to talk about it and give more time for analysis of others. I'll be doing more analysis hopefully later. Analysis of his posts: On October 04 2010 13:30 Misder wrote: If we randomly pick, we might get the village idiot, if there is one. I think we need some sort of discussion to try and find the reds. I remember last game where I totally blew my cover as mafia on day 1, and all I did was try and act normal, so it's possible to distiguish who is mafia and who is not (although it depends on how good we are at red hunting). If I tell, will that person get mad? BrownBear, you know who it is Vauge, but not really suscipcious as of yet. I note that he didn't really contribute with this besides stating the obvious, but nothing incriminating yet. Note this was only a few posts after the game begun, so he didn't really have anything to talk about n.n On October 04 2010 16:27 Misder wrote: I've never seen a random pick do much except lynch a townie. Then again, lynching an inactive also almost always leads to lynching a townie. IMO the only benefit from random is that if somehow, the votes start stacking on a mafia member randomly, but thats very very unlikely. Ehh, I kinda disagree on the no red hunting on the first day. I don't know how good the mafia are, but if they were as noob as me, its possible to tell who is mafia on day 1 (thanks to Ver for that analysis). Right now, we need to get people to post. So, does anyone have a plan? Notes how lynching inactives and randoms almost always leads to lynching a townie. This post implies he wants to scum hunt on day one, rather than the others. Asks for a plan. On October 05 2010 12:34 Misder wrote: You technically can vote without any reason, but I always accuse along with vote. Voting without any analysis is pretty scummy in my book. Right now, I have some hunches on whos mafia, but I'm gonna hold back til there are more posts to work with. So, I'm probably going to vote for an inactive, unless something major happens. Detectives seem to have less of a role in this game. They can't make town circles and they lose a turn of finding red. Protactinium stated that detectives should shout out once they find a red. I think I agree with this as 1) there is a huge lynch target that day and 2) medics can protect the dectective, so effectively, we have a "town circle" without the need of PMs. Vilgilante hits that overlap with mafia would probably indicate that the person getting hit is acting like the VI, since lynching the VI leads to both the town and the mafia loss. I don't know how this helps, but thats my thought. Godfather as VI doesn't make much sense to me, just because there are vigilantes in the game (we should probably assume this as BB and Artanis making a game without vigilantes in games with a VI is pretty unlikely... that really would be OP). I think the biggest concern is if Godfather claims bulletproof. Vig wouldn't want to waste their hit trying to see if the claim is true because of the possibility of a VI, and a bulletproof is beneficial to the town and is an unlikely lynch target because the mafia can't kill (except poison). Aye! I forgot about roleblockers. So above, if DT claims a red, its pretty much assured that mafia will roleblock the DT. I've personally never seen roleblockers do anything that turned the tide of the game, so I'm not exactly sure how important this is. One thing to note is that roleblockers can get rid of the bulletproof vest, so if you are one, dont claim in the thread, unless you get shot. (Just realized this kinda contridicts what I said before where godfather would claim bulletproof... but if godfather claims bulletproof in thread, its likely that a medic will try and save him) I agree with SR. I think that its gonna be really suspicious to anyone who claims to get hit Night 1 though. Of course, claim if you really do get hit as veteran, but be prepared to defend yourself. Do we get to know who gets poisoned to death and who gets shot to death? The VI and mafia collaboration thing only will happen late game for them to have a joint win, is that correct? Here is a long interesting post. Let's note a couple of things. 1.He's going to "probably vote for an inactive." Yet he said he was against voting for an inactive. Now, this may seem suscipcious in itself but note that Misder is one of those who listens, and decides(if town.) This was more than a page after his previous post, and during which came after a whole slew of several people in favor of lynching inactives (click on each word for seperate post) So it's not unsuprising he changed his mind, but should still be noted. On October 05 2010 13:03 Misder wrote: I think I rather wait. First, my suspicions aren't really big; they could be comepletely wrong, and I don't really have strong evidence. Plus, I'm still looking at different play styles from previous games. Second, this way, the mafia doesn't know whether I'm right or wrong, so if they really are scared, they're going to have to kill me If you guys really want, I'll post my suspicions, maybe to generate discussion or something on day 1.Which reminds me, how do we decide which inactive to lynch? This is where I'm starting to get suscipcious. If you have some hunches, why not post it and put it up to debate? It's clear we've wanted to. Also note he's been deferring to the public. It's always "oh what you say." Which isn't in itself a bad thing, but quite noteworthy. Plus that whole "oh, mafia will be scared!" is a bunch of fadoodle since why would mafia be scared of what you "might" be thinking and you dont have any suscipcions. This post is suscipcious. On October 06 2010 06:54 Misder wrote: Personally, I don't see anything wrong about accusing on day 1. We all know that its really hard to find ev against people onday 1, but accusing generates responses, which is good. So, why haven't you posted your suscpcions. On October 06 2010 09:11 Misder wrote: We shouldn't be lynching by what info we get from the lynch; most of the time, the conclusions are wrong, and the whole point of the game is to lynch the mafia. Infund only posted once this entire time, and it was a link to a guide that could have been found by googling. He didn't really post anything at all. His one quote: I'm really undecided who to vote for at this point. I think right now, its pretty useless trying to lynch an inactive. Theres about 4 hrs left, and the whole point of lynching an inactive is to pressure them to vote. I'm still going to vote for XeliN because he's played many games and I dont understand why hes not here. This post is suscpicious as well. Now he's against lynching an inactive, but for I suppose a decent reason: we can't pressure them to talk anymore. That was one of the reasons I started to pressure a (perceived) "lurker" instead(Infund). However, Misder then goes and votes Xelin, and goes against what he just said int he previous sentence. On October 06 2010 09:18 Misder wrote: I would vote Infund, but I've played with him mafia last game, and he does a lot more accusing and spam in that game. He's not acting like he was when he was mafia before; he may have changed his playstyle, but that's pretty unlikely. Also, I would like to say that a lot of mafia members like to post a lot in the beginning, seemingly to help out, but they hide later in the day. (someone like ~Opz~, for example, I've got suspicions on him; I don't know if they are good feelings or bad feelings). Alright contribution. Worthwhile to note Infund ended up being innocent. However, that last sentence makes me do a double take because he again brings up suscpcions, but doesn't say anything. And I'm still waiting for that "list of suspects." On October 06 2010 09:22 Misder wrote: Actually, I’m just going to vote ~Opz~ right now instead of XeliN, just because of this tiny suspicion. I don’t know if I truly believe in that he is mafia, but I think he has a better chance at being mafia than XeliN. Again, I don't get it. What is the suscpicion. You bring stuff up and don't explain it. That's incrediably scummy to me. Previous Games: Townie (BM's game) In this game we see a very different misder. This is his first game, but the only instance of him being townie. Now, let's see some traits. 1.He's active(or at least contributive) Note this post he gives reasons for voting, while making a decisive action. He is constantly taking posts and reflecting on them. Another one, and we see a very townie Misder. He is decisive, and coherent(aka clear reasons.) Compare that with Misder's current posts. Wishy washy, appealing to the town. Last game as mafia he constantly belittled himself as well, and while he has learned to not be so obvious you can tell he's taking a backseat. Why? He's just so different Note he's saying "this is what I think, this is what we should do." This is what townies will do, they actively try to help solve this ginormous mystery and Misder in particular had been analyzing that game. What is this misder doing? Sitting back, not giving any reasons for voting, wishy washy. Comparison: Misder in that game played an inactive, yet contributive townie. He had detailed posts, made decisive decisions, and constantly gave his thoughts and reasons for what he did. The misder in this game has preffered to be lurking and inactive, with really only one okay post. Yet even in that there were problems. (Hehe thank goodness I decided to compare with before.) Mafia (Mafia XXX) In this game half of his posts are defending himself, and all of those are the long ones(excluding the poor analysis he did on Larjarse.) Here' an analysis by Ver on some of his posts, a much better player than I n.n On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote: T Misder : Here is a great example of a mafia slipping up very obviously in day 1. These are two posts full of flagrant errors. This is the first easy mafia catch the town could've had; let's go through it: -Note the multiple apologies, excuses, the specific mention that he is still learning, and overall meek tone. Newer mafia players will try to emphasize their inexperience as a way of overcompensating. Think about this from the angle of being a townie: why would you want to say all this? What's the point in painting yourself to be some noob who is useless and shouldn't be listened to? If you want to be of use to the town, apologizing a bunch and acting all sorry for doing nothing wrong is hardly going to make yourself listened to. In fact, it will make people ignore you instead. Someone who can't even convince themself is hardly going to convince anyone else. That would be great for a mafia who wants to hide though, wouldn't it? On that angle it makes perfect sense from the mafia's perspective. You want to find reasons that make you look less suspicious without looking like you are trying too hard to do so. See how Misder isn't even suspicious before this but he's trying to make himself look less suspicious. That's entirely mafia rationale. A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar. It's a very common pattern that I've seen many, many times. Appealing to others, taking backseat. In this game half of his posts were defending himself, and all of the others were one paragraph every now and then. Comparison: As a matter of fact, I find misder to be even less active in our game than Flamewheel's. Misder has even taken more of a backseat, posting without saying why, but always leaving himself an out in the way of asking others what to do. | ||
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A couple of things I want to see: 1.Someone else doing some good analysis besides just I(because I know mine even aren't that great) 2. Get some real disccusion going 3. Misder post his suspects 4. Meeple explain why he's voting Cynan. 5.Unvote Misder for the time being so then we can still vote double lynch. | ||
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On October 08 2010 07:04 LSB wrote: LMAO Pandain are you getting too trigger happy? Are you trying to start bandwagons? Okay, go accuse Ghur. Infun literally said that he was accusing Ghur because he "sounded funny". I'm not going to defend Ghur, but nor am I going to pretend that Infun was seriously attacking Ghur I don't know about you, but to me, "Sounding funny" is a pretty lame argument And as for the second post. Obviously Infun is prodding NuketheBunnies. I just find no reason to be redundant Wait.. do you mean Infinitestory? Could you point out where he attacked Infinitestory? Thanks Read before you post I feel like I've deserved the right to make a triple post, though I'll try to stay away. Read those two posts by Infun. Those are valid reasons. That other post was just a joke post. However, you seem to have let out this and the fact that Infun voted for him. I think Infun would be seriously attacking ghur(at the very least seriously considering) | ||
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On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote: In day 1, as a blue ~Opz~ told the town what to do, coming up with plans, participating in the actual crux of what was going on. He never actually contributes in this game on Day 1, just blames all of the newcomers." Oh yeah, he never posted a long thing or anything. That long post isn't contributing! It's a farce! And what are you talking about because hes yelling at everyone that he must be town? He does that every game. On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote: I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I So if you knew you contradicted yourself twice why did you post it? And why are you saying your such a good lynch? You're just like "Oh...hey...you're wrong, but I don't really care. Go ahead." Wheres the decisive townie! I'm going to be watching Sen pwn, by the time I get back I want some good answers. And some feedback from everyone. | ||
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On October 08 2010 11:16 Misder wrote: Also reading Pandains posts about my previous mafia game when I was townie actually surprised me. I didn't actually think I was contributing much in BMs game, probably cause Divenek was all like, Misder doesn't post enough and such, lol. Maybe I should start doing things I have done before... I actually don't feel like I'm taking a backseat in this game though. I feel more radical in this game than in other games where in other games, I only posted things I thought I had good evidence to and things that seemed obvious to me. And I should note that when I was mafia, I also answered why I voted for people. And that my analysis on larjarse was pretty much how I would write any analysis, besides the fact that I knew he really wasnt mafia, but I did that just like I would as part of the town. Yet thats the thing. You haven't. You claim to not want to lynch an inactive and then vote to lynch Xelin the sentence after. Then 5 minutes later you change it to opz because of a "vague suspicion" which you haven't clarified until now. You haven't given thoughts on really anyone besides Opz just now, and plainly I'm unsure as to whether you would have had we not pressured you. And when you were mafia, of course you answered why you voted for people. You were under attack. Also note that contributive =/= posting. A person who posts a page every 5 pages is better than the person who posts a paragraph every 1 page. Its quality that matters, not quanity. And frankly, I haven't seen any from you yet. + Show Spoiler + (Also, anyone who didn't spam in that game was inactive :p) | ||
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On October 08 2010 11:27 Misder wrote: I don't really agree that ~Opz~ said anything important in this post. 1) He says that hes not used to all the newcomers and says that newcomers should trust anyone. So to a newcomer, does one trust the post or not? Not really helpful to anyone, and it just messes with the mind. 2) He says that the point of mafia is to kill the mafia, but then implies that town sucks at scum hunting, saying that mafia better be good at green hunting, cause thats the only way we can win. At least thats how I read it. 3) Points out Amber's mistake and calls it typical. Not important I dont think cause anyone who read the OP knows its a no PM game. 4) Don't actually know what hes saying here. I think hes implying that we never actually know whos doing the RNG, and that some people can say that they RNG and they don't. I guess it kinda helps, but I don't even know if thats what he meant by that point, so no idea whether or not it helps him. 5) He just again becomes condescending, and tells everyone not to listen to happy's advice cause its weak. He commented DT should not claim, but instead try to build an argument someone is mafia without roleclaiming. Also, if you could group all your defense in one post so I can consider/respond to it easily as well as other's that would be nice. I feel bad when I post like this :/ | ||
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I won't say from who, and since we can't discuss anymore let's leave it at that. Alright, moving forward... | ||
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On October 08 2010 23:40 NukeTheBunnys wrote: Also, I know I don't have early enough information to do a double lynch this early so for those that are proposing we do a double lynch this early you better give some very convincing arguments about who to lynch and why we need to kill both of them tonight The reason we are going to do a double lynch are two fold. One is taking into the fact that we are going to kill Bill Murray. Now, the current plan is that we are going to vigi Bill Murray. In case Bill Murray is saved by the vigi being roleblocked, or the good chance there is no vigi, we need to do a double lynch so we don't just waste our next hit having to clean up yesterday's mistakes. Basically, we know Bill Murray is mafia/vigi/very useless townie. The second reason is that we WILL know enough by tommorow. Also, note double lynch works for the NEXT DAY CYCLE. Aka, if we vote double lynch now, it comes into effect next day cycle. I think you're a bit confused there. Going ahead, don't you think we'll know enough about another person tommorow? There's already been plenty of good debate, and that in combination with the deaths tommorow night and the outcome of this lynch will definitely suffice to at least provide sufficient reason for a double lynch. Everyone Vote double lynch Also, nice post kingjames. While it would be alot strong if not for the fact they were all new(and therefore can be prone to making silly mistakes such as bandwagoning a player at the last second), I find the Cynan slip particularly interesting. I think I'm going to vote him. Also, Crisis, King deth, drag, and infinite story I want to hear more from you ASAP. | ||
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On October 09 2010 01:40 CynanMachae wrote: I voted for Pandain because I believed him to be suspect at that point. I didn't vote for Crisis_ to save myself either because I didn't think the votes against me were that threatening, since they all happened earlier on and most of the later discussion were on other suspects. As for my yesterday's inactivity (which people pointed out), I already said that I didn't post because of BM's crap and there was only a bunch of useless posts for pretty much the last 5-6 pages when I last caught up. If anyone is going to blame me for not taking part in that then go ahead. I'm not convinced we are going to have that much information for double lynches tomorrow. I'm going through the posts of each player one at a time, so far in my pro-town players I have LSB, Amber[Light], kingjames and on my red suspects I have BM, Pandain and Crisis_ The thing is, there were less than three hours to go. And instead of saving yourself, you voted a person who was sure not to get lynched. In fact, you even suspect Crisis now and yet you didn't vote for him. So, here's what we can deduce from that 1.You didn't feel threatened. Commentary: But why is this? There were less than three hours to go. So I think it's a viable assumption to say you felt that another person would spring up. And in fact, in the last 3 hours Proctat got 5 votes. Suspicious, much? It's suspicious enough that I declare a Panda Investigative Decree that enables me to look through your posts without a warrant. On October 04 2010 15:13 CynanMachae wrote: Well if random pick is chosen, how would you suggest doing it so that it's fair and objective? And Misder, there isn't really much red hunting possible on the first day... Small post, doesn't really say anything. All this says is "I don't know what to do. You tell me." While that's okay for newer players to an extent, Cynan has played several games before. This isn't neccesarily bad, sprouting ideas, but it isn't that good either. On October 06 2010 02:13 CynanMachae wrote: At least you could get my name right (but I would blame it on that list <<)And whoever said that I haven't posted, I did. It wasn't anytihng much useful but still. I didn't say you can't do anything, but yes, one the first day it's very hard to find much because if red play somewhat semi-decently there isn't enough speculation around to have enough hints that someone is red. But sure if you have any suspisions share them. I'm going to vote for an inactive as well, I don't like the random method, cause it does seems to me that its kinda hard to achieve anything with that. And like DrH said, saying that we are voting for an inactive force them to post, and force them to put stuff around that can be analyzed if they are indeed red. Voting agaisnt random doesn't accomplish anything cause it doesn't force them to do anything, just wait. Several things wrong with this. First, he doesn't do what he says. "1.I'm going to vote for an inactive." 8 hours later he votes for me. Now, he's already said that he doesn't think theres going to be enough speculation. And it's not too far a stretch to say that he may have found enough evidence on me to indicate I might be mafia. Really the only thign he contributes here is "Voting against random doesn't accomplish anything cause it doesn't force them to do anything." Anything else he doesn't do, repeats what others said, or states the obvious. On October 06 2010 10:22 CynanMachae wrote: Wow, am I really leading in votes so far? Lynching me would really be a bad idea. I agree with all of you that Padain's posting is a bit weird on defending me, since he can't know that I'm not mafia from my 2 posts and saying I'm playing the same as usual is really not much cause I don't think I've even changed my playstyle much in games were I was mafia, and these two posts really don't say anything right now. So, since Padain can't know I'm not mafia (no detective play yet), the only way that he can be sure that I'm town is if he's mafia himself. He's probably hoping I do get lynched and can play the "told you so" card then. Not that I think it's a wise decision for a mafia but else I don't see why he would be defending me. The only reason I would see is if he believed we should lynch people that are more inactive, but he didn't seem to suggest that. This is perhaps one of the most interesting posts. Now, let's analyze some stuff. Lynching me would be a really bad idea. Woah... was that a soft blue claim? Or was it just saying "im townie so don't lynch me. " This is something that must be noted. However, if he's blue, and he's on the lynch, then why is he voting for me? Him and crisis are tied at 3 votes, and if he's blue why doesn't he saeve himself? He's already noted he's tied for leading in votes. That doesn't make sense.Also in this post he leaps to several conclusions that do not spring from the facts. Let's see what he says 1. "Pandain knows I'm town, therefore he must be mafia. " Whats wrong: First off, I don't know your town. I was merely stating that you have been playing along with your normal behavior in previous games. On October 06 2010 05:56 Pandain wrote:. However, I should point out that I did not say Cynan was innocent, rather that we don't have enough evidence to lynch him. On October 06 2010 05:27 Pandain wrote: I don't count Cynan as inactive and Nobody should vote for him because his actions thus far are in accordance with his previous play. That's not to say I'm not watching him(I am) but he's not that suspicious to me. I clearly state my reasons for stating them, and it is because he was consistent with his previous play. Second off, does analysis play no role in determining if someone is mafia? You seem to have left that out. Cynan's post here does not make sense from a self serving perspective or a logical perspective and really only comes to light if he's mafia. 2."Pandain wants to get me lynched so he can build town cred." He's probably hoping I do get lynched and can play the "told you so" card then. Not that I think it's a wise decision for a mafia but else I don't see why he would be defending me. Whats wrong: How would defending you when you only had two votes at the time help get you lynched? That doesn't make any sense. On October 07 2010 17:02 CynanMachae wrote: God, what the hell is this, this isn't gonna go anywhere, guys you should just ignore BM -_- *yawn* On October 09 2010 01:40 CynanMachae wrote: I voted for Pandain because I believed him to be suspect at that point. I didn't vote for Crisis_ to save myself either because I didn't think the votes against me were that threatening, since they all happened earlier on and most of the later discussion were on other suspects. As for my yesterday's inactivity (which people pointed out), I already said that I didn't post because of BM's crap and there was only a bunch of useless posts for pretty much the last 5-6 pages when I last caught up. If anyone is going to blame me for not taking part in that then go ahead. I'm not convinced we are going to have that much information for double lynches tomorrow. I'm going through the posts of each player one at a time, so far in my pro-town players I have LSB, Amber[Light], kingjames and on my red suspects I have BM, Pandain and Crisis_ Alright last non-spam post by him. First off, you didn't say you didn't post because of BM's waste, don't make that up. And due to the soft claim blue it seems, I'm suprised you didn't find it that threatening WITH ONLY 3 HOURS TO GO! Also now he's not votin gdouble lynch, which is extremely anti town because 1.It allows BM the VI/ BM the Mafia to possibly live through the night if no vigi. 2. We WILL have enough info already, look at all this debate we have. Cynan is Mafia | ||
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On October 09 2010 03:56 CynanMachae wrote: So you are basically saying that out of the 4 mafias leftover (since i would be the 5th one), I knew that they would swing it over by all voting for someone else and saving me? Seems a pretty dumb mafia move right there with the 6 voters on Protactanium and bumatlarge being a confirmed green. I didn't feel threatened cause the 3 votes I had happened very early on with quite bad reasons and the rest of the thread was about others suspects/inactives pretty much. 3 hours is quite a lot of time if I come back and see I'm getting the rest of the votes. Actually, you voted for me less than an hour after BM started his crusade against Proctat. then one hour after your vote 3 people voted for Proctat. And I didn't say they had to all vote for them, that would be pretty dumb. Keeping in mind most of the votes were new players, its not suprising a late minute bandwagon could happen. On October 09 2010 03:56 CynanMachae wrote: So, basically, when someones change his mind, he's mafia right? You might want to look at the vote history again and see who talked about voting for an inactive at some point and then who they voted for. When I said that, I actually did that. Then a couple hours later I changed it with reasons why. You, however, never voted for an inactive. On October 09 2010 03:56 CynanMachae wrote: Lol, you just quoted my post about that, just look it up. Let's word it up better tho: I said that there was only BM's crap around when I came to post, so I didn't post. You say "guys wtf is happening just ignore him." You didn't say "I'm not going to talk until he stops." However, this is sufficient defense and enough of a response for me to withdraw my vote for the time being. I think the results of BM will help determine your alignment especially. | ||
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Summary: Infinitestory has been mostly pro town this game. He makes analysis, contributes to discussion, and offers his thoughts on certain things. While some posts in particular are suspect, overall they can be discounted as of now because of his other posts.I am uncertain about infinite story, but leaning towards green. With that, I do not think Infinitestory is a viable day 2 lynch. His posts this game: On October 06 2010 11:10 infinitestory wrote: I say in order to neutralize the village idiot, village makes a "deal" with mafia. Once the VI is made obvious, the villagers will announce that they will all vote to lynch VI if he is not mafia-killed overnight. Since the mafia aren't going to sit back and watch themselves lose, VI will be neutralized. If VI is NOT neutralized, either mafia lose, OR the "VI" is actually Godfather posing as VI; in the latter case, the villagers stand to gain a huge amount. Now that this plan has been announced, VI must try get himself lynched subtly or risk the above plan being put into action. Be cautious, guys. EDIT: i voted for proactinium because BrownBear did too  its the cool thing to doHis first post. Note the edit. He's new, so this can be okay though. Still suscipcious though. I don't like this plan, but that's because this plan revolves all around wifom. But that isn't bad in itself, but the wifom I see makes it bad to me. To me, mafia would just not kill the VI, and let the town try to lynch the VI. Would they actually do it? Still, it's not that bad. However, the edit is! Look at his reasoning, because "brownbear did too". It's someone other than brownbear, but the point is that that reason is just so horrible it stinks of za scum. On October 06 2010 11:19 infinitestory wrote: I stated the exact reason. If village threatens to kill village idiot, mafia's only option to stay in the game is to kill the village idiot at night. I know full well the win condition of the village idiot, and it is the EXACT reason the mafia should feel compelled to carry out the dirty work of removing him. oh, and i meant Bill Murray voted for you :/ I was feeling sad about having to vote on day 1 without evidence, but your reply which is a blatant invective rather than an attempt to cooperate/defend self has caused me to lose sympathy. I apologize if this is unfounded or wrong, but making personal attacks on each other in the beginning is one of the hallmarks of a player who is unhelpful in the long run, from my experience. This is what I dont like. Now he's changing his reason to he "blatantly attacked him." He's voting for him because he's mean. That's not a good reason. Also note that the supposed "invective" occured after he voted for him. Meaning that was not his original reason. DUN DUN DUN(can you tell I'm slightly hyper) On October 06 2010 11:38 infinitestory wrote: As long as the mafia are still in the game, they stand to lose by not night-killing the VI, regardless of whether it's also "the town's game to lose." To win, the mafia must remove both the VI and the town. A 1% chance to win the game is still preferable to simply losing. I know I've seen games where 1 mafia took out several town by himself with some clever lynch voting. :/ We should also try to start figuring out (if we've already done this, sorry, I just jumped in :/) what role Godfather is posing as, to help the DT do his job with the utmost accuracy. My first thought was that Godfather would pose as VI, and after that I can't decide which of the blue roles (barring DT of course) would be the most viable to pose as. Posing as bulletproof or veteran would cause the DT to defend him heavily against lynch kills, but I think the same probably applies for medic, mad hatter, and vigilante. Any other opinions? this is a pretty good post. what strikes me is he's continuing to try to push this plan, asking for opinions, which seems to me he wants to make it better. That strikes me as prot own. Also, he's trying to help by solving vital things, which while speculative, isn't scum like. This is pro town. On October 06 2010 11:45 infinitestory wrote: I guess my entire plan is based around the assumption that mafia doesn't want to lose, which isn't such a safe assumption at all apparently. I guess equally viable would be that the Vigilante nightkill the VI as soon as VI is revealed. Town really can't lose from killing VI at night, because either VI will go or Godfather will go, and they should both be priorities IMO. Starts to retract his idea, offers up that vigi kill VI(which is true.) Good so far. On October 06 2010 11:59 infinitestory wrote: I want to say that sacks a very valuable DT, but especially to reveal poisoner that's definitely worth it. I'm not so sure about revealing roleblocker, because roleblocker's own ability is far more situational to the reds. @Divinek: The primary reason is that the mafia do not win if town dies. If town loses by VI, mafia also loses by VI. Don't say you didn't consider that. Your counterargument was stated at least twice previously, and better ones have been suggested. Offers opinions and when/if DT shoudl reveal. I think it is some valid opinons. Right now I don't really see anything so bad about infinitestory. On October 06 2010 12:09 infinitestory wrote: Alright. I give up on my argument. I relent. I crack under pressure. Does that please you? What I intended was simply to get people thinking hard about how to get rid of VI, as he is a problem that must be solved through the cooperation of multiple roles. I guess you have an excellent reason for showing me up here, though. Shall we discuss something else now? gives up plan, its alright. I don't see why not following through on a plan is bad if its proven the plan is fundamentally flawed in some aspect. On October 06 2010 12:14 infinitestory wrote: He's worried that if Protact is mafia, the mafia will pull some shenanigans and change the leader away from him before lynch. Explains something. On October 06 2010 12:33 infinitestory wrote: I've been considering it, and I'm going to change my vote to make it as inconsequential as possible (voting for someone with few votes who is likely to be modkilled). I think I jumped the gun on this vote. I don't like this. changes his vote, and while he says he thinks he jumped the gun, voting for someone with few votes who will be modkilled just does not seem good to me. Maybe he's unconfident? Nonetheless, suspicious. On October 07 2010 12:09 infinitestory wrote: I think we should be careful of reading too much into who BrownBear subbed for. I don't know if we could confirm that BrownBear meant "role" as in actual blue/red, bar having a DT check some of the subs and Xelin. Drawing a conclusion like this might lead us down the wrong path with future lynches based on nonexistent evidence. I'm not saying throw this out, I'm saying be careful of putting too much stock into this. This will be a helpful event to keep in the back of our minds if future DT checks do seem to corroborate the theory, but for now, a DT check that turns up green and some questionable evidence isn't good enough for a Godfather confirmation, at least in my mind. Also, in response to LSB's (1) scenario, I have a question. This is my first game here, so those of you with extensive experience: If anything like the Godfather has been in previous games, has the Godfather-equivalent masqueraded as VI, Blue, or Green? If there hasn't been a Godfather equivalent in previous games, what do you all think the Godfather would pose as? Getting some solid ideas about Godfather's role will better equip our DT, in my opinion. I like this post. He does discount the possibility that BB's (slip?) means Xelin has a role, but he says we shouldn't take it as fact(aka, follow that "evidence" for a while.) Also, he's asking whether the GF has masqueraded as what before. On October 07 2010 13:40 infinitestory wrote: cSc's only got two posts in the thread since the game began, and judging from his activity and the content of his posts, I don't expect him to explain his vote for bumatlarge insightfully, if at all. His two posts: Yeah where is cSc? On October 07 2010 14:35 infinitestory wrote: my suspects HFT/BC - Probably top of my suspect list. The contradiction BM found in HFT's posts is pretty good evidence, although I'm less convinced about BC's "rolefishing." For new players, that honestly is pretty good advice. BM - I'm torn. He did "lose" us on the first day, but he also found an anti-town. He has been acting like a village idiot with his plan to weed out greens (which I believe doesn't make any sense), but he has also provided us with a solid lead for a suspect. I think his analysis for who's anti-town is valuable, so I wouldn't vote to leech him for now. Ghrur - He did vote for Protact, but he had a reasoned post, and I think he was simply duped by Protact. I don't think he was very scummy from what I saw. cSc - He's not so much a suspect as an inactive or a newbie; I don't know if he will post his logic for bumatlarge (if he had any) or if we will get anything out of it. Crisis - his "stuck between a rock and a hard place" is pretty odd, and this post: which was made AFTER he voted protact to put himself out of the lead is also questionable. My #2 suspect, and as OpZ said, definitely needs to be in a higher light. Dr. H - Looks like he really doesn't like Misder, but I can definitely see why. I wouldn't suspect him so much because his arguments have been pretty focused and reasonable. OpZ - Narrow your suspect list. It's obvious you're good at picking out odd posts, but I want to see your top few. This post is good. He makes analysis of people, with reasons backing it up. Don't see anything blaringly wrong with this analysis either. Then he hasn't posted for a while. I'd like him to do that more. | ||
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I'd like to get some posts outside that controversy | ||
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On October 09 2010 05:00 XeliN wrote: Well one thing I will say is that I do not think the arguments, or perhaps analysis is a better term, you have layed out is enough to warrant the conclusion Cynan is mafia At best you've outlined inconsistency in what he's posted, but going from that to the claim he is definately mafia is quite a stretch to me and I'm abit suprised you've jumped to the assumption. This is purely in response to your analysis on him, I'm not saying I consider to be, or not to be mafia. Yeah I get quite worked up when I write analysis. One of my faults, I may become blind to certani aspects. He layed out some good defenses so I'm going to vote someone else, as I've said. | ||
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On October 09 2010 04:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote: check out SINiquity as well, he's a pretty big blip on my radar right now I won't do any hardcore analysis since they are quite tiring and he has alot of posts. Most of them are short however. Things I do notice are he hasn't really contributed that much, most of his posts are 2-3 sentences, and the only big post was his last one which was disproved. The one thing that struck out to me was he voted for Protact because he wouldn't reveal who he was smurfing as. Lynching a person that had made pro town posts(in my opinion) and was obviously going to be an active contributor because of such a reason stuck out to me. Really I'd like to see him post more before making a decision. Right now I think we need to make a choice between Xelin and Misder, and everyone needs to vote double lynch. Also where did south go? | ||
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Pandain
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VOTE FOR DOUBLE LYNCH | ||
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Artanis is a myth. Artanis does not exist. | ||
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On October 09 2010 08:20 kingjames01 wrote: Maybe I don't understand something but a lot of people seem to think that Double Lynching tomorrow night is a good idea. At first, I thought that this would just be something that mafia would support since it's so early. However, there are now 8 votes in favour of the Double Lynch. Someone explain to me why we should take a risk with this. I've already asked and we can't take it back tomorrow. Is the plan to use one of the kills on Bill Murray if he doesn't get killed tonight, like Pandain and NukeTheBunnys had suggested? I'm still not convinced that he's Red. What if he's a second Village Idiot? What if he was just really excited because he thought that he could single-handedly corral all of the mafia? Give me a good reason or I'm going to abstain from that vote. Also, I don't understand how not voting Double Lynch is anti-town. If he's VI, than unless the mafia get EXTREMELY lucky and roleblock the vigi he will die. It's true, we are taking a slight risk. But a very small one. But the possibility that he's VI AND the vigi get's roleblocked is less than .01% asumming an equal chance of everything. Of course analysis can find things pure statistics can, think about that. Do you really think we're not going to have enough info by tommorow? With a (hopefully) vigi kill, this lynch, all the previous info, and possibly a dt check? | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
On October 09 2010 08:38 kingjames01 wrote: So what you're saying is that with a Vigilante kill, a lynch vote, 2 mafia kills, a Detective check (also, a possibility for a Medic Save), we're going to learn a lot. Fine, I can see that. I still feel very uneasy about what's going to happen tonight. I feel like the town is quickly losing control and I want us to stop our infighting so that we can use our heads again. I have 2 questions for you: 1) Why do you assume that there is a mafia RoleBlocker? 2) Why did you stop pushing CynanMachae? I still don't think he's in the clear. 1.It's in the roles, but your right, theres a chance it doesn't exist. Still, all that would do is support going for double lynch since we won't have to worry about him. 2.He's not, but he defended himself well enough that I want to wait till BM's result until I re examine him. That and if I do an analysis on another person who I don't know is mafia theres the chance other people may start voting for him. | ||
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Pandain
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1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save. 2.In case BM is mafia 3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though) 4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp | ||
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On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote: To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that. If you really don't think we can get two mafia by then....you don't have much faith in town lol. I think we can. We already have like 5 suspects, albeit I haven't yet analyzed the more expierenced players as of now. I think we'll snatch at least 2 of them. | ||
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On October 09 2010 09:49 Crisis_ wrote: Okay, I'll consider it. Can you clarify this for me, though? Will the double lynch occur tonight or tomorrow if it passes? tommorow, but we still get to lynch tonight. On October 09 2010 09:48 kingjames01 wrote: It's not that I don't have faith in us. It's just that there's some luck involved. The ideal situation would be for us to advance in this game without relying on luck. When we open up the question of Double Lynching we give the mafia a chance to control us. Also, 5 suspects doesn't equate to 5 mafia. This seems like a big chance we're discussing. Why hasn't anyone else come out and explained why they are silent on this issue? This affects the entire game and I want to hear what some of the quiet players are thinking. It's like we're forgetting that we're having a conversation where everyone can read and manipulate. Anytime you lynch someone, theres some luck involved. You could analyze a person who literally said "I AM MAFIA" but theres still luck(aka, he could be lying for some reason.) I don't see how mafia will be able to control us, as long as town doesn't randomly bandwagon someone in like an hour. I didn't say we need 5 mafia, but if we get two we lower their kp. | ||
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United States12989 Posts
On October 09 2010 10:53 ~OpZ~ wrote: ##Vote Misder This kid is apologizing for voting for me? Can we lynch him? Only if you vote for double lynch. Yes, I spam when I want something done. Now do it. | ||
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Pandain
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I have a feeling alot of my analysis are going to be wrong | ||
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3. Bill Murray 5. SouthRawrea 6. Amber[LighT] 8. Divinek-albeit I do have suscpcions 10.SINiquity 11.XeliN 12.kane]deth[ 13.~OpZ~ 14.DoctorHelvetica 15.infinitestory 17. 18.NukeTheBunnys 19.Crisis_ 20.drag_ 21.CynanMachae :p 22.meeple 23.kingjames01 24.ghrur | ||
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On October 10 2010 10:00 kane]deth[ wrote: What are you basing your accusation on? shhhhhh its a secret | ||
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On October 16 2010 03:34 Divinek wrote: lol i was only active for the first half of the game, after that i realized no one would notice if i just stopped saying anything and thus i did ez mode Did you just get new icon? If so, congrats! Also, one of the things that made me think DR. H was innocent was his defense of infun, he fervently defended him. That was a nice move there. | ||
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