TL Mafia XXXI

On October 06 2010 05:56 Pandain wrote:


o.O
Forgive me then, I was under the (I now see) false impression that while the first vote was just to get him talking that the second post was either a quick bandwagon(doubt it thought) or more likely a townie who's just confused. I was worried that he might get bandwagoned just because we really don't have that many good choices. Rereading, its clear to me they were for that purpose.
However, I should point out that I did not say Cynan was innocent, rather that we don't have enough evidence to lynch him.

On October 06 2010 06:26 drag_ wrote:

This just furthers my point about you. You act as if my post was all part of your multiple phase plan, before completely changing the subject to you accusing me of lying in wait and singling you out with my 'slimy words'. Once again another clear shift of blame from yourself towards me and another accusative post.

On October 06 2010 07:34 Pandain wrote:
I still believe Infun should be lynched if anyone, based around the fact he's technically off the "inactive list" while he hasn't really posted any content at all besides a link to a site.

My main reason is that I don't think we should lynch Cynan, and Infun is the best person we have. I think we should make a stand right here, and everyone should start to vote for someone, since the way it stands now it is too easy for mafia to manipulate the votes and it will be 100% NOT a scum lynched.

On October 06 2010 07:49 ghrur wrote:
Speaking of lynching, I strongly suggest against group voting, or in other words
Don't agree to bandwagon onto a random vote
Don't agree to use individual RNGs and votes
If we bandwagon onto a random vote, how can we know if the person voting is or isn't mafia?
If we use a RNG, how can we be sure Mafia isn't rigging the votes and using the RNG as an out?

Also, once again, I'm against voting an inactive so early on because
A. They could get modkilled. Do we want to waste a lynch?
B. Does it put pressure on them if they can't see the votes due to a busy schedule?
C. Inactives could be very helpful later on.
D. Mafia hardly ever hides in inactives.

Personally, I'll probably read through the voting thread later and see who votes what and let that influence my choice because I'm still new. xD Learning how a veteran votes could be helpful!

On October 06 2010 08:09 Pandain wrote:


While these are different reasons for why I no longer am lynching an inactive, it is the same conclusion however. I think we SHOULD make a stand on who to lynch. We hardly have any time left (what, 3 hours?) Right now mafia can manipulate the vote so easily. I'm lynching Infunidibulum because he's posted without really posting, he gave a link to a site which, while perhaps worthwhile to look at, isn't really superb.

And sure, we don't really get that much info, but who else do we get info from? I mean, theres the supposed "Cynan-Pandain" connection, but of course I know it won't really amount to anything.

On October 06 2010 09:01 Pandain wrote:


Crysis is new and has even more content than Infund. Nuke the bunny actually has been contributing, and has posted 8 times. Infun, however, is an expierenced player. He's by far the best bet in this situation(albeit wouldn't be if like 7 people weren't going to be modkilled)

On October 05 2010 14:05 Crisis_ wrote:


How nice of you to vote for me. Glad to know that your vote will be a waste, since:

1. I am participating in active discussion to try to help town and give advice to the DT, I wouldn't be doing this if I were scum.

2. There are better candidates to be lynched, i.e. inactives.

On October 05 2010 12:03 Crisis_ wrote:
I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum.



As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies.

On October 06 2010 09:11 Misder wrote:


We shouldn't be lynching by what info we get from the lynch; most of the time, the conclusions are wrong, and the whole point of the game is to lynch the mafia. Infund only posted once this entire time, and it was a link to a guide that could have been found by googling. He didn't really post anything at all.

His one quote:


I'm really undecided who to vote for at this point. I think right now, its pretty useless trying to lynch an inactive. Theres about 4 hrs left, and the whole point of lynching an inactive is to pressure them to vote. I'm still going to vote for XeliN because he's played many games and I dont understand why hes not here.

On October 06 2010 09:27 Pandain wrote:


He's new. What he considers "contributing" may be less than what you do. Point is, he gave his opinions, and at least actually helped. Also, stop twisitng his words. He had been contributing in discussion on that subject(those posts were around the same page), while Infun has not at all besides that post in the begining.
In addition, Crysis is at least putting himself out there with opinions, while Infun can't be linked to having a strong opinion on anything. All he did was link a site, and if its bad info, he can just say "Oh, sorry." And we still can't tell what his views are on anything. Don't forget, just linking a site which *may* help someone isn't unknown to mafia, mafia pretend to "help" all the time.

But what I find most interesting is why you are so caught up in this. You even claim yourself, "We don't have evidence on anyone really" and were inactive up until infun started getting accused. But I'll just leave that as food for thought, as a valuable townie would be contributing none the less. Still, I've got my eyes on you O.O.




DT's can't investigate till night 2




Why? At least Opz is being active, and he always posts scum like. He's like cynan, suscipcious, but playing his normal style so that must be remembered.

Obviously some people are gonig to be modkilled. We should go after the people who will not, but have barely contributed(or go under the "guise" of contributing).

On October 06 2010 10:00 Pandain wrote:


I'm not saying he's contributed nothing, I'm saying he really hasn't contributed anything to this game. Plainly, Infun is a better and much more obvious choice than Crysis, who has at least been trying to contribute. And plainly I think he has been. Decent 3 paragraphs, but how does it help?

Those who post without content are spammers, those who write essays without content are scum. Hyperbole, obviously, and I don't know for sure that infun is 100% scum. But I do know he's a better lynch in my eyes. Plainly, Infun has not contributed at all. He linked to a website, but anyone can really do that. Again, mafia will appear to help people all the time. And you don't always have to lie, or even want to lie as scum. (See: Ace's mafia guide).

You're saying crysis is a better lynch than Infun. How? Crysis has at least attempted to contribute, and is new, so his posts will obviously be shorter than normal. He is adapting to this game, to accuse him and declare him mafia because he hasn't contributed "meaningfully" is the wrong conclusion. Instead, realize he is contributing, and push him to contribute more.
Crysis makes 3 posts, talking about what he feels.
Infun makes one in the very beginning, linking to a "helpful site." Then he disappears.

Tell me which is the better choice.

On October 06 2010 11:59 infinitestory wrote:

I want to say that sacks a very valuable DT, but especially to reveal poisoner that's definitely worth it. I'm not so sure about revealing roleblocker, because roleblocker's own ability is far more situational to the reds.

@Divinek: The primary reason is that the mafia do not win if town dies. If town loses by VI, mafia also loses by VI. Don't say you didn't consider that. Your counterargument was stated at least twice previously, and better ones have been suggested.

On October 06 2010 12:09 infinitestory wrote:

Alright. I give up on my argument. I relent. I crack under pressure. Does that please you? What I intended was simply to get people thinking hard about how to get rid of VI, as he is a problem that must be solved through the cooperation of multiple roles. I guess you have an excellent reason for showing me up here, though. Shall we discuss something else now?

On October 06 2010 12:50 Crisis_ wrote:
I'll just tell you right now, I'm not red.

On October 06 2010 13:02 Protactinium wrote:

All is going exactly as I have planned.

On October 07 2010 12:58 ~OpZ~ wrote:


This is a strong point that Drag_ Is most likely town too....I fear you DrH.

Drag_ going at him hard, maybe he's new and mafia, but still...too much attention?

On October 06 2010 05:50 Pandain wrote:
Mmmm tough situation right now. While in this situation I would love to just RNG between the inactives, if everyone does that it gives too much room for mafia to manipulate that and get an inactive townie lynched instead. So one of my goals of pushing this "inactives to be lynched" concept is that we can also start to see whos posts because they realize they need to post more, and who posts just to get enough without really contributing anything. That leaves Dr. H and Infun, and unfortunately I can't really access H's posts from previous games to decide upon him.

But Infun has only made this post, and it really adds no content of his own, while he "seems" to be contributing with roughly 2 decent paragraphs.
Here's the post:

On October 07 2010 09:18 LSB wrote:
Divinek is being pretty active

Pandian is writing weird stories again. That probably means he's Red or Blue

Bum says he's going on VI watch, that would be something Mafia would like to get recognized as


Could someone tell me a bit more? Then again, DoctorH hasn't played for a while, so maybe his reentry means that he's willing to put in more effort


As for the Newcomers, I haven't read much, but it should be pretty easy to tell if one of them is Green. Are any of them superactive?

Lastly, Someone go Protect/Investigate Xelin. Brownbear just told us straight out that he's Red or Blue

On October 07 2010 13:22 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
basic summary of posts/arguments/conflicts concerning the deceased:


Early on Pandain was bandwagoning infund for a lynch starting on page 15 with this post:



His argument was that infund fit the profile of posting a lot of words with little content, a benchmark of mafia players attempting to appear as active townies. I argued that there were much better candidates for this position and I propositioned crisis as the best choice based on pandains logic. Our argument continued for a few pages and it should be read by everyone.

On page 16 misder also called for a lynch of infundibulum. His argument was that infund had changed his playstyle. He then quickly changed his vote to OpZ on a "tiny suspicion". He never explained his reasoning.

pandain later votes for SINiquity

bumatlarge came into the thread saying his job as a townie would be to look out for the village idiot. ironically he himself voted for the village idiot, protactinum. on this same page I quoted cSc's vote for bumatlarge which he never once explained in the thread

LSB softly accused bumatlarge of being mafia in this post:


he also alluded to the fact that pandain might be red while pandain was the one who bandwagoned the now dead infund.

on page 27 pandain lists bumatlarge as his second biggest suspect

On October 06 2010 10:37 Infundibulum wrote:
The reason I haven't been posting is because I haven't been home since last night (>24h ago) when I made that first post.

Thanks for getting my back while I was gone Dr H.

Pandain, anybody can link to a website - but I'm the one who did. I don't think I've seen that guide before on TL at all, and frankly guides like that are something we could use more of on TL so that people can learn to play in non-PM games. You said it isn't superb though. So what would you add?

Also Misder, I'm still waiting to see your list of suspects that you talked about before.

On October 07 2010 13:38 Bill Murray wrote:
@DoctorH why are you pushing easy mislynches? Well, I guess Misder is intermediate. You also say "these two people are town" in cSc and Pandain. I agree with doing that sometimes, but I do not see the point of it here. Why did you do that?

On October 07 2010 13:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


becasue cSc and pandain were connected to the deaths of infund/bumatlarge through voting/argumentation i wanted to emphasize that I don't expect either of being scummy

this is a game with a lot of new players who might just jump to the conclusion that whoever was most opposed to the deceased is the scum and I want to avoid people jumping to conclusions. i'm going to go read happy.fairytails first posts before i respond to your accusation of bloodyc0bbler although its certainly stronger than anything i've come up with for the time being.

On October 07 2010 13:43 Bill Murray wrote:
If you don't agree, I'm probably going to label you as scum.
You are now approaching a conundrum, a twilight zone if you will. Do you bus your partner if you are scum in this situation? "Sure, Bill, BC is scum" when you know he is to build townie cred? I don't put it past you, and perhaps I shouldn't fill you in on the ability to do that as it can be a viable tactic, but here at TeamLiquid players are usually very loyal to their scumbuddies.

Watch out how you respond to someone else's case, DoctorH. If you have something bad to say, it is usually better to not say anything at all.

On October 07 2010 13:49 Bill Murray wrote:
because he is your scumbuddy
throw him under the bus, doctorh

On October 07 2010 13:49 ~OpZ~ wrote:

Haha prepare to die.

-_____-

Fuck man have I even seen your name this game?

....Suck up?


Do you want out of the limelight good sir?

You know what he is thinking too...Seriously, this post wasn't about to be dedicated to you, I was just getting a vote list and reading thread.

How were you stuck? I'm still reading thread maybe you answer it in there. If that's the case, ignore this. If I remember to delete it you'll never know.

Bum was terrible as the village idiot watch guy....
Seriously. lmao.

...See....Fuck...Listen to this man. Anyone pushing to kill flamewheel being protected, which is why I'm making sure to make that vote list. Sorry I been away guys.

This.

Misder, please answer.

...........................................
What is this....I can't even begin to understand this.
...Okay....I see...So you're feeling me.

I'm feeling Dr. H...a lil.....Ya feel me? Anyway....Point of the matter is...I have no idea, maybe it was the italics but your post just hurt to read.

I agree, as you can see in my current post, I'm agreeing with you. I would also like to hear some from Crisi_ again....where's he been at?

Oh...and rock and a hard place? -______________-


I think final vote lists should be posted in thread @_@

Anyway...Votes an protact would of been nice to post.

Oh wow...fml, BB doesn't tally. Fuckkkkkk I actually gotta count.

BM protact
Ghrur - Dunno yet....Gonna have to reread thread.
Infest - ....Wtf bro.October 06 2010 10:49. (Mafia attempt at forming a bandwagon quickly, trying to snipe a good player?)
SiNiquity -again need to reread reasoning. I think he posted more than what he said in Pandains quote....But maybe I'm just remembering something different because there really wasn't much reasoning given for flame's deathhhh. Dr. H is going against him so clearly I need to better look at him.
NukeTheBunnys - ....waaaat.
Crisis_ - Already said some thangs.
bumatlarge - ...you are insane sir.

On October 07 2010 13:54 Bill Murray wrote:
My analysis is seeing ~OpZ~, DoctorH, and BC as mafia
My last analysis lynched an anti-town player.
If I really "lost us the game", why is it still going?
I just got a VI smurf out of the game.

On October 07 2010 13:58 Bill Murray wrote:
lets have an open roleclaim. BC, you first. I'm town, but I'm not saying what at this point
people can say "no, we shouldn't roleclaim, it is way too early". I just want people to claim town/townie, not what role they are.

If I was mafia, I wouldn't have the balls to say this. This is too obvious to be the play of mafia. Lynch BC if I get mislynched. If he flips red, look at ~OpZ~ and DoctorH. If you all want to win, listen to me.

Claim.
I'm claiming town.
We need to consolidate through claims.
Trust me on this one, and we will have a good game.

On October 07 2010 13:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


everyone is going to roleclaim town what a useless post

are you hoping someone will fuck up and claim their blue role?

On October 07 2010 13:59 Bill Murray wrote:

The fact I am pretty sure I know who 3 high-level mafia are
Is that good enough for you?
Do I need to be a martyr for the town to win?
Make me a martyr, DoctorH, get me lynched so they can see I'm town.

On October 07 2010 14:01 Bill Murray wrote:

not everyone will claim town, there will be townies amongst us. This way we can weed out the greens.

On October 07 2010 14:02 Bill Murray wrote:
What are you Doctor H?

On October 07 2010 14:05 Bill Murray wrote:
we are getting EVERYONE to say they're town or whatever. If I flip, lynch BC/OpZ. DoctorH is possibly cleared.

On October 07 2010 14:13 ~OpZ~ wrote:
...........How......Does.....That....Clear.....Anyone.

Omg. Weed out the greens? Are you kidding me? Feed the mafia every blue on a silver platter?
Argh.

And how am I even possible mafia? Both you and Misder have said this but I would like some proof.

Also Dr.H, my suspects are

happyfairytale/BC (thanks to BM posting HFT's contradiction),

BM - actually...why are we not lynching him. We should lynch him. He started Prot lynch, and is probably acting insane to live.

Not so much Pandain, Drag_ and King seem pretty town to me.

InfiniteStory seems to be playing better now. Need him to post his suspects with some argument though.
Crisis and Ghrur....Possible or possible new mistake. Jumping into lynches with no reasoning is bad and we need to put them in the spotlight. Nobody has been mentioning them (Ghrur might of posted on second thought, FML i'm so tired)

But that's who and why. Divinek should be online right now actually....

On October 07 2010 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:
Well, BC and OpZ still don't realize the townie pm is phrased "Town"
not citizen
not townie
Town.

They don't realize this. Why would they not realize that?

@Drag_ I am green, and on the side of good. Do not question me, bro.

On October 08 2010 00:55 XeliN wrote:
My PM was from Brownbear OpZ

and Amber I am not siding with Bill in any way, all I am saying is I consider him a Town player. That doesn't mean I am agreeing with his arguments, suspicions or general style of play, but from what he has typed he is fairly clearly a Green, town player.

On October 08 2010 05:22 XeliN wrote:
I'll make a concise post addressing all of you wonderful people questioning me in a little bit, currently I am waiting on a piece of information.

To briefly outline a few things however.

I believe Bill to be 100% Green Town
I am suspicious of the assertion that both Brown and Artanis sent out role PM's, my inclination is to think only Brown did
My vote on Bloody was initially a more sincere one, now it is a placeholder whilst I evaluate, if it makes any of you feel more comfortable I'll change it to myself
Divinek likes to say fuck

On October 08 2010 05:30 drag_ wrote:
There are so many little sub-arguments going on right now I'm really struggling to make heads or tails of anything. That said, while BM may be a tool, I think it's more important to crack down on inactive people. In a 25 person game it's really easy to slip under the radar. I feel like focussing on BM is just a waste of time atm.

On October 08 2010 05:42 Pandain wrote:
An Analysis of Bill Murray:
Summary:
Overall, BM, you have been unproductive, contradictory, blatantly obvious, using logical fallacies, and all the while under the protection of "I'm BM." Yet in the first post I quoted you said you only do the "one line spam" when your scum(or in this case VI) However, I do think there is a high chance of him being VI.

Therefore, I propose we lynch someone else and vigi him tonight. Also, in the scenario in which he doesn't die, we lynch him. This way we get rid of all possible avenues. If he is VI, he will be killed unless mafia get a lucky roleblock(or unlucky, since they will lose next day) or a medic is really "interesting" and protects him. But that won't happen. If he is mafia, then he will either die or be lynched tommorow. If he is town, he will just die. But in the scenario he is either GF or we have no vigi, I also propose we vote double Lynch for tommorow, for him and another person, or just 2 new suspects. I feel we will have far enough evidence to analyze.
I believe I have shown sufficient proof of BM being anti town, and urge you all to consider and comment. I will tackle the "Oh BM always does this" by analyzing his posts in previous games as mafia and town. Hopefully that will be done by tommorow at the VERY latest, hopefully by today.

His posts this game:




Pre game. Note this very much. Now, in Team Melee Mafia Bill Murray actually made some sense and had decent sized posts, and definitely didn't spam. In his own words, he's playing his own scum game.




Basically the only post in day 1. RL issues can occur, but note that he's just making an excuse for inactivity. Now, I believe that he had RL stuff for a number of reasons:
1.If we were going after inactives, why would he seem so inactive? Even though he has an excuse, it might've been better for a full post. So slightly unlikely.
2.His mafia brothers probably would have been like "OMG BM HURRY UP AND POST SO THEY DONT LYNCH YOU." Note that this whole post and its explanation revolve around wifom, but I believe logical wifom. Obviously does not clear him, however.



*yawn* Says nothing, but its alright, as long as he makes a great post right?



BAD! BAD BILL MURRAY! What is this? He gives three opinions in one sentence without backing any of it up. How is he happy with amber or I? Why does he like kingjames? Posting without content, its the same as voting without a reason. Both scum like.



Doesn't make sense, first of all if I am a detective I wouldn't know yet(can't check.)



Here is his long "informed" post. Couple of things to note:
1.He says Dr. H is probably town. Compare this with his recent accusation of him, along with opz and BC. Now, opinions can change, so I'll have more to say as I review more posts.
2. A series of logical fallacies and random conclusions from facts.


Opz asked Misder to share his suspect list. Therefore, they are buddying and both mafia despite the fact Opz has been suscipcious of Misder this whole game. Not logical.


Starts hatin' on the strategy and talking about policy, claiming they are "cluttering up the thread." Yet he spams just in the last 5 pages like cwazy. Also he tells them to stop hunting for the DT yet publicly announces I'm the DT. IN THE SAME POST!




His evidence against Proctatorium. Let's see his evidence against him:
1. Makes pro town posts
2.Smurf
3.Fishing for the DT(How? And you just claimed I'm the DT, yet bashed Proctat for "trying to find the DT and who he was." Utter hypocricy.
4.How would you know I'm DT?

I am in utter shock how Protact got lynched. It was horrible, and should've ended the game if not for Brown Bear's mercy. All of these points are illogical and in error, to the extreme. Bill Murray knows better. Even though he may seem stupid and is sometimes illogical, he's not to this extreme. This is scum/VI BM.




Great evidence. Are you TRYING to get yourself lynched? Notice he's making so many logical fallacies. And noticable too. Recently he's just started random spamming and claiming to lynch people because they claimed "town". I'm so confused by him.




Alright, you were able to after a while. Where's your case?



*sighs* You claimed he was mafia(or one really good VI). We expected him not to be VI. For all purposes, BM got a townie lynched, not only that but a good one too. Mafia doesn't know who the VI is, so for all intents and purposes if mafia pushed forward this lynch it would be aimed at a very experienced town. Also notes he said he knew he was anti town, yet one of the reasons he voted for him was because he made pro town posts. What the fadoodle?



Two posts before the previous one here, Brownbear clearly said the game will not end. In fact, just after posting it, BM would've been able to see it. In fact, Brown bear responds to something else and BM responds to that. Note this was 5 minutes after Brownbear clearly said we were not restarting, and BM responded in between. So it's 100% certain BM knew the game would not end. So why would he claim town?
1.He's mafia
2.He's VI
3. He has a horrible disease which makes him have short term memory loss every 5 minutes.

Bill Murray does not make sense.



For rizzles? Look back at that previous post my nizzle. Then start thinking out of your grizzle some more. Note he claims feeling bad for lynching him, yet now he proudly proclaims it. Contradictions everywhere, my friend.



Remember that first post of yours? How you were becoming more content oriented and now only spammed as scum(or perhaps VI)? Eh?




Pure wifom and speculative, but I thought it might be interesting to note he said VIs instead of the singular VI. Implying theres more than one VI. Still, just wordplay analysis.


+ Show Spoiler +
Spoilered for your convienance. This whole post is interesting, so let's analyze it.
"Let's see who is high tier enough to not hit a blue."
Couple of things wrong with this:
1. Because they did not hit a blue, they are bad at blue sniping. False.
2. Because of this, they must be so high tier so they didn't hit a blue. False. Why the fadoodle would they not hit a blue?
3.BC would be high tier enough to not hit a blue. False. In BM's own game BC basically led the mafia, leading to blue snipe after blue snipe.

As you may note we are seeing a series of logical fallacies and incorrect reasoning. To the extreme. Note the process above. It does not make sense at all. People may just say "Oh, he's BM and he's just stupid." But that's how he won penalty mafia, and if someone has gone to this extreme they are not pro town.
Again he also claims BC is fishing for blues, yet what the frick? He is not at all. There is no way you could get that out of what Proctat was saying, or BC. He's being stupid, for the sake of being stupid.

However, the contradiction is the (only) valuable part of this, and while interesting, is too easily explained by a myriad of what happened in RL, and we do not have happy tail with us. BM is proving far more interesting anyway.




To Dr. H. Starts to insinuate he's scum on no basis.



So much that's wrong with this. First of all, you should've lost us the game. You lynched a person that should've seemed pro town, but because your'e either scum or mafia you're playing stupid and spammy. Unfortunately, you got alot of new players to support you in day 1. This shall not happen again . Also still thinks Doctor H is mafia, despite nothing having changed from when he thought he was town.




Right after a previous post. Stop trying to prove your' town by finding "tells" in YOUR OWN posts. Anyone knows this is pointless, so why are you doing it? Because you're mafia, or VI(mostly VI).



Stupid stupid stupid argument. Made up of wifom("If I was mafia I wouldn't have the balls to say this. This is too obvious."). Made up of stupidity(let's open roleclaim!) Made up of no content( Just trust me.)



This post sets me off. It's like he's asking to be lynched. If he was town, why would he asked to be lynched? In addition, he can't know who the 3 mafia already are. He's asking Dr. H to lynch him(still think's hes mafia, remember that!). The only reason he would want that is if he is VI.



Oh, now he claims Doctor H might be cleared. Yet shouldn't his plan confirm or condemn them?



Fail logic. First off, he fishes for mad hatter(ACTUALLY does), outright saying "Just claim to me. Especially if you are inexpierenced and need guidance" Don't fall for this trick, new folk.
Also, how the frick does Brownbear saying "Protact is an amazing player" make there be only one VI. Right now BM is just trying to use a tactic I call "Appeal to Impulse". This is where he says a point, attempts to get someone to do something, and quickly before anyone can really talk about it. Here he's just spamming "everyone claim now! Next post! Do it!"

Also, note in his plan Blues would also put "Town" or "townie". OF course, according to Opz Artanis sent him Townie. But don't claim this plan means he's town, it catches the blues as well. And now he has been trying to convince the new people to claim as soon as possible. When I say claim, note I don't just mean the role claim. By claiming, BM the Scum would know if they were blue as well IF he trusted the majority. From there he could work out the blues. For he himself wouldn't know the exact wording if he was scum. Really the only reason he would start to begin such an insane plan is if he knew it was stupid, he knew it would cause controversy. He's red or VI.

The plan should be discarded. We can analyze it for why it would've been sent out, but please not how people respond. And according to Opz, theres more than one way people got it. So it's really useless. Most importantly, it ruins the spirit of the game, and makes babies go berserk when they see it and go emo later in life.

Now begins the mass use of "Appeal to Impulse"
+ Show Spoiler +

Now, after all that we see he reveals his"Majestic plan"



I''m sorry, but this plan is and was horrible, and disproved because it was revealed people were sent town or townie. In addition, you're giving mafia a 50% chance of getting it "right"(which turned out to be either). I won't comment anymore because of what Brownbear said.

But seriously, I'm disgusted. I'm not usually this strong about an issue, but this ruins the spirit of the game. And I'm saddened with myself that I even have to comment this much into viewing why you might propose it, however far away from actually comparing pms might be. It's a good plan, but against the spirit of the game.

On October 08 2010 06:13 LSB wrote:
My idea for dealing for Bill Murray. (This is for figuring out if he is red/VI)

Okay, instead of killing him today, we declare that we are going to kill him tomorrow, with a double lynch.

Mafia knows that we will kill Bill tomorrow, if Bill is VI, Mafia will have to kill him tonight or else they will lose.
But if Bill is Mafia, mafia can't kill Bill, and we would know that he is red.

This way we get to have mafia waste on of their hits or lose.

On October 08 2010 06:29 LSB wrote:

Oops. Didn't notice his posts

Okay, I'll carry on his torch then.
This is something we should rely on. The benefits are pretty clear. Mafia has to use up one of their lynchs.

The point isn't whether or not the town is going to commit suicide. We will lynch BM tomorrow because we will know he is Mafia.
But if Bill Murray isn't mafia, Mafia has to kill Bill Murray or they lose. The Mafia plays to win

On October 08 2010 06:38 LSB wrote:

We can double lynch, that's why we wouldn't waste a lynch.

Also, the point is, BM won't be Vanilla Town when we put his head up to the chopping block, he'd either be dead by Scum hands, or he would be red.

On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote:

We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do.

The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia.

On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:


I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game.

So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him

On October 08 2010 06:56 XeliN wrote:
Ok I was going to try to write a large response post to some of the things people have said about me, but I'm finding it difficult currently due to the ambiguity of the assertions, there have been some statements such as "sticking his neck out" "sided with bill" and other such things.

I know this will sound a little hmm arrogant or presumptuous maybe, but for the sake of clarity: if anyone has any specific questions about my play, conduct, arguments or actions that they would like me to directly answer then please state them clearly and I will do so .

I'm the most likely to be lynched atm, so plz humor me xD

On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:

Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers.

Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all

It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves.
Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay!

On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:


Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O
If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him.

On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose.

On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote:

We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan.
The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do.

Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view.


Assume we are following through with our plan.
It's Night 2.
Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them.
They either have two options

1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster
2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red.

Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia.



As for the Town.
It's Day 3.
From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post.

If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia.

What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is red
Mafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information.

On October 08 2010 08:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:



I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched)

Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it.

On October 08 2010 10:21 kane]deth[ wrote:
I suppose proof was a bad word to use there.
The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random.

I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile?

On October 08 2010 12:15 SiNiquity wrote:
Disclaimer: This post is does not in any way encourage additional posting of PM or PM related information, nor do I wish to further the discussion of the PMs themselves. This post contains full disclosure of BM's method to further discourage any claiming. However, the prior claims are here to stay, for better or for worse. There's nothing that can be done, yet they've altered the meta game and as such cannot be ignored.

Alternatively a host could simply come out and confirm that the PM messages were different dependent on host, alleviating us of this meta-game aspect entirely. But if not, then the information's there, and should be taken full advantage of by the townies.

Now, in short, for those that don't feel like reading the spam starting from page 29 and going really until about page 35, Bill Murray demanded players to roleclaim, but emphasized players should carefully reread their PMs before claiming. It was actually very clever, as there was an underlying secret that only town players would recognize: town players were not PM'ed the word "town" but rather "townie" as their role. XeliN sums this up nicely:





Ironically, Bill, either in a burst of genius or insanity, incessantly insisted the correct answer was "town." And, best of yet, some people fell for it:








(Note: BC is especially guilty in this regard, as he kept referring to the town post in the OP as his point of reference). In fact the only player that correctly roleclaimed as far as I can surmise is OpZ:



Even now Bill maintains "town" is the correct answer, and his vigilance for this charade is admirable yet simultaneously disturbing on some deeper level. However, props to him for maintaining it for so long (I'd certainly be convinced).

Now there is the caveat that there were different wording in the PMs based on the host.



As such, take the following conclusions with a grain of salt:

Confirmed players from my perspective:

• Bill Murray
  
• ~OpZ~
  
• XeliN (maybe, first one to put 2-2 together but never identified "townie" as the correct solution).
  

Suspect players from my perspective:

• BloodyC0bbler (claimed "town")
  
• DoctorHelvetica (claimed "town")
  
• infinitestory (claimed "town")
  
• Divinek (just didn't get it, went off on XeliN)
  
• Amber[LighT] (just didn't get it, went off on XeliN)
  
• Nuke (just didn't get it)
  

Still need to look at the votes over the past day to see if there's anything worthwhile there. But I'm certainly curious as to what one of the "town" players will flip ~ if town, then there's possibly a host discrepancy. If not, then this only confirms my suspicions. It's the strongest lead we've got and I see no reason not to pursue it.

Anyway I'm off to bed to mull this over.

On October 08 2010 15:42 XeliN wrote:
And Dr I ought to add, because it will be painfully obvious to the mafia at this point, that I am a Green Town player.

The only way I would come out openly about being 100% assured that Bill is a Green Town player is if I was also a Green Town player and could see right off the bat what he was attempting to achieve in his PM shenanigans.

On October 08 2010 16:16 Bill Murray wrote:

actually, it's the opposite, siniquity. you must be blue/mafia.

On October 08 2010 16:25 Bill Murray wrote:
actually, doctorh, mine isn't like that.

On October 08 2010 16:27 Bill Murray wrote:

If anything your support of me should confirm you as a player. You were the only person to really pick up on what I was saying, other than perhaps InfiniteStory. I'd like to hear more on what he meant. I doubt he was claiming town as blue, but was claiming "town" as green. That's what I was doing, because it is a good strategy to weed out the greens through the word "town"

On October 08 2010 17:00 Bill Murray wrote:
at least i'm not slinging ad hom like BC

On October 08 2010 17:01 Bill Murray wrote:
it also is cool some people picked up on that, because some got them from BB
I am sorry he worded his role pm that way, and I am not posting it or anything. I could be lying, right?
It's all WIFOM.

On October 08 2010 17:07 XeliN wrote:
Dr claiming there is nothing of value whatsoever to be gleaned from the earlier PM discussions due to the fact it has now been revealed that 2 types were sent is false imo. Using them as a basis for argument may have flaws but the idea that they lack any merit whatsoever is not true.

On October 08 2010 17:08 Bill Murray wrote:
I believed BC was mafia before the trap based upon Happy.Fairytale's play.
I actually got stuck in WIFOM land with opz, not sure if he's blue/mafia. See my above post.
I felt like I've already dropped it.
I'm going to go put my vote on someone where it counts.

On October 08 2010 17:10 Bill Murray wrote:
is kane]deth[ or RoL playing? kane]deth[ voted lol
he apparently wants to double lynch
Can we wagon NukeTheBunnys?

On October 08 2010 17:13 Bill Murray wrote:
basically, we have a day to put pressure on someone. We need to start a wagon on mafia. Who are your top suspects, DoctorH?

On October 08 2010 17:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


I suspect misder of being mafia

I suspect Xelin and cynanmachae of being red or blue, I also suspect opz is a red or blue role although I don't feel comfortable deciding which. I plan on doing a lot more analysis tomorrow, it's quite late.

That's why I particularly want to hear your case about cynanmachae

On October 08 2010 17:19 XeliN wrote:


Well for example some, such as I, will be able to form an opinion of Bill alignment.

Also earlier in the thread when put under pressure by Bill some people seem people seemed very reluctant and almost dodging the issue when asked. Such a reaction would certainly be consistent with a mafia player being put under pressure to pretend to be a role they are not but try not to get caught in a lie.

it's mainly useful for determining towns people as the reaction given by some makes it quite likely they are Town.

I agree with you though using it as evidence of people being trapped definitively doesn't work due to the fact we do not know how all of the PM's were phrased.

On October 07 2010 14:54 Crisis_ wrote:
So about my "rock and hard place" comment, I was talking about how I was 2nd on the votelist, and I didn't have much of a choice, otherwise I would have been lynched. Why would I want to die on day 1?...

Oh and if you don't believe I'm not red, you can go ahead and lynch me to find out. Sheesh.

On October 08 2010 17:23 XeliN wrote:
Moving on however,


For what reasons do you think I am Red or Blue. Outline your thought process behind the suspicion.

On October 08 2010 05:22 XeliN wrote:
I'll make a concise post addressing all of you wonderful people questioning me in a little bit, currently I am waiting on a piece of information.

To briefly outline a few things however.

I believe Bill to be 100% Green Town
I am suspicious of the assertion that both Brown and Artanis sent out role PM's, my inclination is to think only Brown did
My vote on Bloody was initially a more sincere one, now it is a placeholder whilst I evaluate, if it makes any of you feel more comfortable I'll change it to myself
Divinek likes to say fuck

On October 08 2010 17:39 Bill Murray wrote:
it could be a lie to save the mafia

On October 09 2010 03:22 Pandain wrote:


The thing is, there were less than three hours to go. And instead of saving yourself, you voted a person who was sure not to get lynched. In fact, you even suspect Crisis now and yet you didn't vote for him. So, here's what we can deduce from that
1.You didn't feel threatened.
Commentary: But why is this? There were less than three hours to go. So I think it's a viable assumption to say you felt that another person would spring up. And in fact, in the last 3 hours Proctat got 5 votes. Suspicious, much?

It's suspicious enough that I declare a Panda Investigative Decree that enables me to look through your posts without a warrant.



Small post, doesn't really say anything. All this says is "I don't know what to do. You tell me." While that's okay for newer players to an extent, Cynan has played several games before. This isn't neccesarily bad, sprouting ideas, but it isn't that good either.



Several things wrong with this. First, he doesn't do what he says.
"1.I'm going to vote for an inactive." 8 hours later he votes for me. Now, he's already said that he doesn't think theres going to be enough speculation. And it's not too far a stretch to say that he may have found enough evidence on me to indicate I might be mafia. Really the only thign he contributes here is "Voting against random doesn't accomplish anything cause it doesn't force them to do anything." Anything else he doesn't do, repeats what others said, or states the obvious.

This is perhaps one of the most interesting posts. Now, let's analyze some stuff.

Woah... was that a soft blue claim? Or was it just saying "im townie so don't lynch me. " This is something that must be noted. However, if he's blue, and he's on the lynch, then why is he voting for me? Him and crisis are tied at 3 votes, and if he's blue why doesn't he saeve himself? He's already noted he's tied for leading in votes. That doesn't make sense.

Also in this post he leaps to several conclusions that do not spring from the facts. Let's see what he says
1. "Pandain knows I'm town, therefore he must be mafia. "
Whats wrong: First off, I don't know your town. I was merely stating that you have been playing along with your normal behavior in previous games.



I clearly state my reasons for stating them, and it is because he was consistent with his previous play. Second off, does analysis play no role in determining if someone is mafia? You seem to have left that out. Cynan's post here does not make sense from a self serving perspective or a logical perspective and really only comes to light if he's mafia.

2."Pandain wants to get me lynched so he can build town cred."

Whats wrong: How would defending you when you only had two votes at the time help get you lynched? That doesn't make any sense.



*yawn*




Alright last non-spam post by him. First off, you didn't say you didn't post because of BM's waste, don't make that up. And due to the soft claim blue it seems, I'm suprised you didn't find it that threatening WITH ONLY 3 HOURS TO GO!

Also now he's not votin gdouble lynch, which is extremely anti town because
1.It allows BM the VI/ BM the Mafia to possibly live through the night if no vigi.
2. We WILL have enough info already, look at all this debate we have.

Cynan is Mafia

On October 09 2010 04:13 Pandain wrote:
Alright, I'll go over Infinitestory's posts too

On October 09 2010 08:04 kingjames01 wrote:
We need to hold on a second here. First, a HUGE discrepancy in CynanMachae's play was found. There was less than 3 hours left in the vote and he was first in line to be lynched. His best play was to vote for Crisis_ and he didn't.



HE WAS GOING TO GET LYNCHED AND DID NOT VOTE TO SAVE HIMSELF. Think about that. If you want to stay in the game, there's only one correct play. You vote for the other guy. The only way that this is understandable is if:
A) He WANTS to be lynched.
B) He KNOWS he's not going to be lynched.

Let's examine his defence.





CynanMachae's defence is that to claim mafia would not expend 4 votes to save one person so it can't be true. But what if the mafia thought they could save 2 of their own? CynanMachae and Crisis_? That's the difference between 2 Kills and 1 Kill a night... Doesn't this warrant more attention from us?

Now, I'm going to go on the record and say that I don't think that CynanMachae is mafia. From his defence post, which I truncated, I think that he didn't realize how close he was to being lynched or the best play to save himself. I think he made a mistake but won't admit to it now. I'd like another explanation please. Did you REALLY gamble on your fate because you GUESSED that someone else would earn 6 more votes (one was repealed)? That seems too flimsy to let pass.

Now, I want to make my real point. There's something really wrong about what's going on in the last few hours. It seems to me that there's a lot of posturing or manipulation going on in plain sight.

XeliN and NukeTheBunnys are attacking each other and everyone else is staying silent. What are we hoping for? That one or both are mafia and might slip up?

Pandain is applying pressure to CynanMachae to get him to open up. DoctorHelvetica weighs in and suggests infinitestory or SiNiquity. CynanMachae defends himself but not completely and then Pandain decides to back down and starts to look at infinitestory. DoctorHelvetica chimes in and says to look at SiNiquity. After Pandain takes a good look at infinitestory he concludes that there is not enough to go on and implies that the suggestion to investigate SiNiquity is a valid one but won't make the effort.

Why is DoctorHelvetica calling the shots? What did I miss? Has DoctorHelvetica been confirmed as Blue? I may not be experienced but I feel as though we are being manipulated. He comes into the thread, makes some suggestions about other players and disappears letting others do the work. If he cares so much about finding proof against infinitestory or SiNiquity then why doesn't he do the work himself? Now he's gone and started a bandwagon against Misder. This is ludicrous.

My suggestion is for the Detective to check him tonight. Unfortunatly, there's no way for the detective to reveal DoctorHelvetica's role without putting himself at risk. Without the ability to PM, we need to keep the Detective hidden.

Has anyone ever played a game without PM's? How do we use the Detective?

On October 06 2010 11:13 SiNiquity wrote:
I'm pretty sure lynching the village idiot means we all lose. I see no reason for mafia to play along.

On October 06 2010 11:29 SiNiquity wrote:
This presumes the Mafia is in a position to win - if they feel like they're losing, then it's the town's game to lose by following through with the lynch.

On October 06 2010 11:46 SiNiquity wrote:


Once the VI is truly out in the open, we could argue that Mafia forfeits now or we lynch the the VI. My point is, by lynching the VI we -also- lose, so yes if the mafia is down then they have no reason to follow through with the kill, just as we have no reason to follow through with it. Granted I see no reason why the mafia wouldn't kill the VI just to get rid of him, but I don't agree that we would be in a position to blackmail them.

On October 06 2010 11:48 SiNiquity wrote:

I called him out to reveal himself, he didn't. If he wants to take his identity to the grave then that's his decision.

On October 06 2010 12:04 SiNiquity wrote:
6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain.
7. If you miss a vote or fail to post during one day cycle, you will be modkilled.

Not voting:
bumatlarge, kane]deth[, Infundi, Crisis_, Happy.fairytail

Not posted nor voted:
XeliN, JeeJee

Under the current rules we're looking at 7 mod kills. Hope some of those are mafia :\

On October 06 2010 12:05 SiNiquity wrote:
EBWOP: Credit (or blame if it's wrong) to BrownBear for that list, I simply pulled it from the vote thread.

On October 06 2010 12:15 SiNiquity wrote:


[url="http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=157921&currentpage=2"]Go vote for someone.

On October 06 2010 12:50 SiNiquity wrote:

10 minutes left.

On October 06 2010 13:00 SiNiquity wrote:
I getcha, heh.

Also, Prot's headed to the gallows (bum just chimed in). Sorry buddy ~ could've thwarted this whole mess if you'd have fessed up.

On October 06 2010 13:58 SiNiquity wrote:

No I agree. Except then at least I'd have a chance at a mafia role I'm always town-aligned, gets old after awhile.

On October 08 2010 12:15 SiNiquity wrote:
Disclaimer: This post is does not in any way encourage additional posting of PM or PM related information, nor do I wish to further the discussion of the PMs themselves. This post contains full disclosure of BM's method to further discourage any claiming. However, the prior claims are here to stay, for better or for worse. There's nothing that can be done, yet they've altered the meta game and as such cannot be ignored.

he claims he doesn't want to encourage durther discussion of the PM's but yet his entire post is centered around discussing EXACTLY that.

Alternatively a host could simply come out and confirm that the PM messages were different dependent on host, alleviating us of this meta-game aspect entirely. But if not, then the information's there, and should be taken full advantage of by the townies.

It had already been confirmed some pms were sent by artanis and that they were worded differently.

Now, in short, for those that don't feel like reading the spam starting from page 29 and going really until about page 35, Bill Murray demanded players to roleclaim, but emphasized players should carefully reread their PMs before claiming. It was actually very clever, as there was an underlying secret that only town players would recognize: town players were not PM'ed the word "town" but rather "townie" as their role. XeliN sums this up nicely:
complains about spam despite being a terrible spammer himself. BM's plan was clever despite the fact that it was totally useless because not every role PM was worded the same way. SiNiquity either doesn't know this or is feigning ignorance.





Ironically, Bill, either in a burst of genius or insanity, incessantly insisted the correct answer was "town." And, best of yet, some people fell for it:








(Note: BC is especially guilty in this regard, as he kept referring to the town post in the OP as his point of reference). In fact the only player that correctly roleclaimed as far as I can surmise is OpZ:



Even now Bill maintains "town" is the correct answer, and his vigilance for this charade is admirable yet simultaneously disturbing on some deeper level. However, props to him for maintaining it for so long (I'd certainly be convinced).

bill maintained town was the correct answer because that's the PM he received. people received different PM's so none of what you just said matters in the slightest bit. there was no trap.

Now there is the caveat that there were different wording in the PMs based on the host.
do you even realize this sentence makes your ENTIRE post fall apart?



As such, take the following conclusions with a grain of salt:
I will

Confirmed players from my perspective:

• Bill Murray
  
• ~OpZ~
  
• XeliN (maybe, first one to put 2-2 together but never identified "townie" as the correct solution).
  

Suspect players from my perspective:

• BloodyC0bbler (claimed "town")
  
• DoctorHelvetica (claimed "town")
  
• infinitestory (claimed "town")
  
• Divinek (just didn't get it, went off on XeliN)
  
• Amber[LighT] (just didn't get it, went off on XeliN)
  
• Nuke (just didn't get it)
  

you agree with BM's methods and come out with compeltely different conclusions. there are two scenarios that makes this possible. one is that you are dumb and did not understand what BM was saying. you say earlier in the thread that bill murray maintained "town" as the correct answer when it was indeed townie. how did you know this was BM's intention? He never claimed it was. This means you were communicating with BM via PM (which is a rule violation), or because you are both mafia. Or you recieved a role PM that said townie which just goes to prove that the role pms are different.

Still need to look at the votes over the past day to see if there's anything worthwhile there. But I'm certainly curious as to what one of the "town" players will flip ~ if town, then there's possibly a host discrepancy. If not, then this only confirms my suspicions. It's the strongest lead we've got and I see no reason not to pursue it.

Anyway I'm off to bed to mull this over.

On October 09 2010 12:17 SiNiquity wrote:


That's terrible.

If BM's not mafia, there's no guarantee that Mafia won't gamble that he's not a VI and we waste our double lynch. I also don't believe there's more than 1 VI (protact), but that's just a hunch on my part.

Look, now that I understand BM's plan, I agree it was utterly and ridiculously stupid (seriously - "Hey guys I'm town, so what are you, town/townie, oh and btw if you're blue answer 'town' since that's the super-secret right answer, but otherwise tell me are you town/townie" Gee I wonder what -mafia- would respond with?). From my perspective (i.e. OpZ's), I thought it was all a clever trap.. too clever for BM though, and I should've realized that. But even as bad as his version was, I think it's a stretch to suggest a non-town player would initiate such action relying on some "correct" wording of town PMs which, if wrong, would mean his doom (as it turns out, there was more than one "correct" wording so either way he was right, but he couldn't have known that).

So in short, no, I don't think we should double lynch just to lynch BM, and I'm not convinced we're going to have enough information tomorrow to justify using one of our (two) double lynches.

Also james is correct ~ I've only voted for double lynch so far (and now unvoted). Still weeding through the thread to find my vote candidate.

On October 09 2010 12:47 SiNiquity wrote:
I don't think either Misder or XeliN are mafia, and if my tired count is correct they're the current big leaders in the vote.

On October 10 2010 10:45 SouthRawrea wrote:
Just because I'm not allowed to PM, I'd like to express my wish to PM Pandain expressedly. PANDAIN I WANT TO PM YOU.

Just a suggestion: Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods might be a good idea.


People who voted for lynching Misder in order of best reasons:
Pandain - Pretty well done analysis on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150&currentpage=38
~OpZ~ -For the unexplained vote Misder put on ~OpZ~
infinitestory - Actually makes a post explaining why he though Misder was suspicious though I can't see why he'd vote for him in particular because he had plenty of other suspects at the time.
DoctorHelvetica - No good reason. He was tunneling Siniquity the entire time and gave no real reason for Misder.
LSB - He basically goes to pandain "who know you might be right" and votes Misder...
drag_ - Absolutely nothing. A total of 10 posts. There almost seem to be 12 posts but 2 of those are from a link of siniquity's

This was just me scanning over the posts and making it public who I'm going to examine. I would start with drag_ but because he has so little posts I thinking I'll examine him and LSB (as JeeJee didn't make a single post). Most likely within the same day I will go over DoctorHelvetica and/or Xelin because this particular post caught my eye. It just seems like a post that could be reduced to under 10 words and has no explanation within it and only an elongated 1 point opinion. I know I've been guilty of this to some degree except without just providing opinion. However it seems like major "slipping under the radar" to me.


In case of my death tonight
Suspects: Xelin, DrHelvetica, BloodC0bbler and at least 2 of the newer players including KingJames, drag_ and infinitestory.

On October 10 2010 10:53 SouthRawrea wrote:
:D I'm glad you could consolidate your posts. No hard feelings? I actually think I screwed the ctrl+f thing that one time while searching. It began the search part way through. Sorry about that. It wasa genuine mistake. I was going back through what I searched through just to make sure everything was right and yeah you did express suspicion. I'm in no way clearing you though .

On October 10 2010 11:41 infinitestory wrote:
osht
Pandain knew he was going to die?
I want to say "perhaps he got something right in his final suspect list?" but I'm really afraid the mafia have thought this out on an extra level, in a reverse-psychology way

On October 10 2010 11:46 infinitestory wrote:

yeah, I guess it is a waste

what does wifom mean?

On October 10 2010 11:59 SiNiquity wrote:
(a) (paraphrased) "haha lynching VI is bad for town, you're so dumb siniquity, we all know that"
no, infinitestory or whoever was saying we should hold the mafia hostage with the VI, and I was pointing out that was a stupid idea over and over again. I'm absolutely thrilled that you've somehow taken that and twisted it into making me look like a moron. I hope the rest of your post isn't like this.

(b) "worthless post about protacts smurf"
smurfing hurts town. Lynching hurts smurf. I thought putting more pressure on protact would get him to fess up. If you were smart you'd have seen that I threatened him, he ignored me and just kept posting, and then I voted to put him in the lead and tried to keep the pressure on him, but he didn't budge. Yet you think posting "10 minutes left" with protact having a single vote lead, one of them being me, and protact actively posting, is worthless. Ironically, the fact that he did nothing was the biggest tell that he was VI:



(c) SiNiquity: "[BB: let's continue.. why bother restarting?] No I agree. Except then at least I'd have a chance at a mafia role I'm always town-aligned, gets old after awhile." Why say this?
Because I'm always town aligned and it gets old after awhile, which is why I was perfectly content with protact being VI and rerolling

(d) "now ALL THE WAY from page 22 to 39 he spams one-liners with NO information"
you sir are a dirty little liar. I didn't post after page 25 until page 39. Not that this mischaracterization is out of line with anything else you've said. You're just as bad as BC in the last game I played when he analyzed me. Yeah I spammed a bit on 22-25 when nothing important was going on, during twilight and immediately after protact was pronounced VI. Sue me.

Points (e) through (l) are referencing my large post on page 39

(e) "he claims he doesn't want to encourage durther discussion of the PM's but yet his entire post is centered around discussing EXACTLY that."
I didn't want people to discuss to reveal additional PM knowledge as that was clearly banned, but wanted to reference the claims people had already made, as I thought we had some actual concrete evidence to work from, and ignoring that would be stupid. Hence the disclaimer.

(f) "It had already been confirmed some pms were sent by artanis and that they were worded differently."
Up until that point, there was no confirmation of different wording in the PMs. There was however confirmation that multiple hosts PMed people. Silly me for thinking anyone in this thread would need such a distinction pointed out. Oh wait, I did. In the point you're rebutting.

+ Show Spoiler [Blue posts from pg 33 to my pg 39] +

(g) "complains about spam despite being a terrible spammer himself."
Yes, let's take an outright lie from point (d) and use it to draw a conclusion.

(h) "BM's plan was clever despite the fact that it was totally useless because not every role PM was worded the same way. SiNiquity either doesn't know this or is feigning ignorance"
See point (f).

(i) bill maintained town was the correct answer because that's the PM he received. people received different PM's so none of what you just said matters in the slightest bit. there was no trap.
See point (f).

(j) (In reference to: caveat ~ PM wording may have been different) do you even realize this sentence makes your ENTIRE post fall apart?
Yes which is why I put it both at the top and bottom of my post. Because it was that important.

(k) (In reference to: "Take the following with a grain of salt") oh i will: Oh you're a clever one.

(l) you agree with BM's methods and come out with compeltely different conclusions. there are two scenarios that makes this possible.

1. one is that you are dumb and did not understand what BM was saying. you say earlier in the thread that bill murray maintained "town" as the correct answer when it was indeed townie. how did you know this was BM's intention? He never claimed it was. This means you were communicating with BM via PM (which is a rule violation), or because you are both mafia.
   
2. Or you recieved a role PM that said townie which just goes to prove that the role pms are different.
   

Or I received a role PM that said townie which meant BM was parading town as the correct answer to catch other people. But that would depend on the PM wording being the same huh. I wonder if I should, idk, make a disclaimer about that? The next post you quote even elaborates on this, but naturally you ignore that.


(m) What is this post about? Protecting BM and explaining his late vote. Mafia like to vote late so that they make sure to have the least conspicous vote possible. ~ Taking this in turn

1. Protecting BM: Yes, I don't think BM is Mafia. Why? As I stated in the post you're quoting:
   
   I think it's a stretch to suggest a non-town player would initiate such action relying on some "correct" wording of town PMs which, if wrong, would mean his doom (as it turns out, there was more than one "correct" wording so either way he was right, but he couldn't have known that).
   
   Naturally you don't at all address the fact that I'm 100% fucking correct, but rather twist me being right into "protecting BM ono he's MAFIA"
   
2. explaining his late vote: Yes, I was voting late, and I was explaining that I had not voted because someone claimed that I had.
   
3. Mafia like to vote late so that they make sure to have the least conspicous vote possible: You honestly don't think voting late isn't conspicuous. Maybe you don't understand the word conspicuous and instead meant influential ~ the extremes will get the most scrutiny, hence the least and most influential votes will be most conspicuous.
   

(n) He says "I understand BM's plan" yet in his previous post he interpreted CLEARLY in the exact opposite way BM did.
Seriously, this is getting old. Thank God I'm almost done with this. Read your paraphrase, read the quote in point (l) and honestly tell me if they're the same. If English is your 2nd language, I forgive you.

(o) If that is the case there is no way he understood what BM was doing unless they communicated or unless SiN has really really bad reading comprehension.
The irony of your words is seeping from my monitor. If <false paraphrase> is true, then <draw conclusion> unless <conclusion #1 out of 2 from (l) is true> or <completely unrelated yet highly ironic possibility is true>

(p) (Referring to me thinking Misder/XeliN are not mafia) Would you like to explain? Misder didn't end up being mafia, just a bad townie.
Yeah it was totally Misder's fault for getting lynched. Stupid bad townie

(q) (Continuing from prev. point) But why even say this if you aren't going to provie a reason? Not only does he not back up his defense but he doesn't propose an alternative. He isn't scumhunting which is what town should be doing. Lynching mafia.
His late posts convinced me he wasn't scum which is why I didn't vote for him - I'm sorry that this wasn't obvious based on the fact that I posted that right after Misder posted. I don't think XeliN is mafia because he was the first to articulate BM's tactics, which I already stated in my "long analysis post." But you read that and picked it apart already, so you'd know this, right? As for why I didn't make a case for someone else, all of this was 15 minutes or something like that before the lynch, so no, I didn't make a case for someone else, because there wasn't enough time.

[Summary]:
(a) misrepresentation
(b) stupid
(c)
(d) lies
(e) misunderstanding
(f) lies
(g) conclusion from lies
(h) unsubstantiated claim
(i) unsubstantiated claim
(j)
(k) clever jab
(l) incomplete analysis due to conclusion from unsubstantiated claim
(m) misrepresentation
(n) misrepresentation
(o) misrepresentation / stupid
(p)
(q) misrepresentation / I don't even know. Stupidly high expectations?

On October 10 2010 12:01 Crisis_ wrote:
Pandain's out, and he was the one who led the analysis against Misder, who was also a townie. I think Mafia's trying to kill off people who are not only inconsequential (can't be traced back to mafia), but also players who can analyze posts like Pandain.

I think some of us are looking in the wrong direction right now in terms of leads, and we should really focus on those who we are NOT focusing on, if that makes any sense.

And as such, my suspicions on CynanMachae, ghrur, and BM are lowered, at least until I get some more information.

On October 10 2010 12:36 SiNiquity wrote:

No I never said (and note that I -still- have not said) what my role is directly because BrownBear explicitly said to stop discussing PMs, and me saying "hey my PM said ________ and was from _______" would be violating this, as well as the disclaimer of my own post (the one from page 39, the long analysis one). I did however allude to it as heavily as I could: Smiley face by Opz when saying who I thought was likely town, saying this was all from "MY" perspective, then clarifying in a later post that "MY" perspective was the same as OpZ's perspective.

I can see how the conclusion could be drawn, but you also mentioned another possibility (namely the real one) but completely dismissed it and used the other one to draw conclusions. That's just dishonest.


lol offended? No. I'm only offended that we're making crucial decisions on analysis like that. If you are alluding to the fact that my retorts were pointed and often critical of your analysis, then sure.

On October 10 2010 13:19 SiNiquity wrote:


I never said you made any decisions ~ I'm only saying that every night's lynch is based on stuff like that, and if it's inaccurate or incomplete then you're doing everyone a disservice, because they're probably not going to take the time to so thoroughly analyze your analysis.

I understand the point you were driving at now, but much of your post contained inaccuracies (i.e. me spamming for 17 pages vs 3, and it's not nearly as bad as you allege), misquotes (taking "Look, now that I understand BM" as "I understand BM"), bad summaries ("siniquity saying stupid things about lynching VI, no shit"), etc. That's just off the top of my head, the rest is in my post.

Ironically I'm setting the bar ridiculously high for myself now when it comes to analyzing anyone

On October 10 2010 14:11 SiNiquity wrote:




k? Now let's move on.

On October 09 2010 11:48 SiNiquity wrote:


Wait. So we're double lynching just to lynch BM "for free" tomorrow?

On October 10 2010 14:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote:



That's why I voted for double lynch. See this post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150&currentpage=37#733

That's terrible.

If BM's not mafia, there's no guarantee that Mafia won't gamble that he's not a VI and we waste our double lynch. I also don't believe there's more than 1 VI (protact), but that's just a hunch on my part.

Look, now that I understand BM's plan, I agree it was utterly and ridiculously stupid (seriously - "Hey guys I'm town, so what are you, town/townie, oh and btw if you're blue answer 'town' since that's the super-secret right answer, but otherwise tell me are you town/townie" Gee I wonder what -mafia- would respond with?). From my perspective (i.e. OpZ's), I thought it was all a clever trap.. too clever for BM though, and I should've realized that. But even as bad as his version was, I think it's a stretch to suggest a non-town player would initiate such action relying on some "correct" wording of town PMs which, if wrong, would mean his doom (as it turns out, there was more than one "correct" wording so either way he was right, but he couldn't have known that).

So in short, no, I don't think we should double lynch just to lynch BM, and I'm not convinced we're going to have enough information tomorrow to justify using one of our (two) double lynches.

Also james is correct ~ I've only voted for double lynch so far (and now unvoted). Still weeding through the thread to find my vote candidate.

On October 11 2010 04:52 kane]deth[ wrote:


I must say, you're entire analysis is bullshit; you're assuming that new players instantly take risks and because in the first few posts I have in mafia aren't decisive and inspired, that I am anti-town. I must say that there is truth though, I haven't contributed anything yet, but I promise I will by monday night. Of course you could say I'm delaying because I'm mafia but it IS thanksgiving over here and all.

@LSB
I'm role-claiming town, but even if I was mafia I would say that :V

About my voting, I changed it because I was thinking XeliN in my mind but I typed Misder for some reason. Misder did seem to be angry and such but I thought that was just a good tactic to get others feeling pressured. Xelin seemed to be weak and uninspired, sort of like how you're accusing me to be. If I did have a choice to abstain, I would, but then I'd get modkilled, so I thought that instead of voting off a player I could simply double-lynch and collect my thoughts, but I didn't know that you still had a lynch.

On October 11 2010 07:27 Bill Murray wrote:
What's the case on kane]deth[?
Why are you voting him DoctorH?
If I've missed something that has happened, sorry, I haven't gotten a chance to read some of it yet

On October 13 2010 04:50 SouthRawrea wrote:
Amber I honestly made that vote a retaliatory vote simply because you were saying that you'd vote me at the end. I'd like to make it clear that I maintain my analysis on drag_ and unless he's dead tonight, I want him dead tomorrow morning. (Also I'm guilty of being biased this game. I have a liking towards BC so I ended up ignoring an urge to attack him part way through the game. I'm typing this out because making it public will probably help solve the problem. First step= admitting I have a problem. I have a problem although it's minor.)

On October 14 2010 17:04 Protactinium wrote:
I'm pretty sure somewhere down the line hosts/people agreed to only have one normal game running at a time...

On October 14 2010 21:05 meeple wrote:
Just threw my vote on the doctor for now... I'll try to make an informed decision later on

On October 15 2010 06:46 ghrur wrote:
Despite this hotbed of activity (sarcasm), my suspicions are still on the same people. Crisis_ and SR. Really though, we honestly need more activity. We can't get ANYWHERE if we just have no one posting. There are no developments. On the otherhand, I don't want to make random accusations just to pressure people and cause chaos. =/ I guess I'll just inspect the recent posts more carefully later. If nothing comes about, I'll probably stick with Crisis for my earlier reasons.

On October 15 2010 08:57 SouthRawrea wrote:


He's trying to manipulate information. This is precisely why I brought up the possibility of this happening early in the game.

If I am to be lynched today, I suppose it is my fault for being inactive for some parts of the game but please enlighten me as to how my play has been worse? I see alot of people placing their not-so-good reasons. As for a defense, the only person that came up with a formulated accusation was Kingjames and I've more than defended myself adequately.

The people that voted me that day had failed to respond to my recent actions. Ghrur for example completely overlooks my defense and proceeds by calling Kingjames01's analysis beautiful and fails to notice my gigantique analysis on drag_ which also fulfilled my earlier promise. Alot of the current votes on me are remnants of votes that should have been quelled yesterday but are still there. Some might be there in questioning of my list of people that I made and others might be there simply because they don't want to believe that the defense that I wrote up is good enough. So be it. Just know that at this point in this day that there are no proper accusations on me and that you should rethink your votes and the situation that I am in. Just know that it was not me vs Amberlight and Xelin yesterday. Rather I was pitted up against them against my will. Is there really still a big case on me? I think not.

On October 15 2010 11:20 SiNiquity wrote:
NukeTheBunny has not posted anything. Since page 44. On October 9th. 6 days.