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TL Mafia XXXI
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I'm actually a bit torn between voting for Cynanmachae or one of the completely inactive players such as JeeJee. I think I'm gonna wait on this a bit. We need to be careful not to jump into big accusations this early, nothing good ever comes of it. | ||
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On October 06 2010 05:56 Pandain wrote: o.O Forgive me then, I was under the (I now see) false impression that while the first vote was just to get him talking that the second post was either a quick bandwagon(doubt it thought) or more likely a townie who's just confused. I was worried that he might get bandwagoned just because we really don't have that many good choices. Rereading, its clear to me they were for that purpose. However, I should point out that I did not say Cynan was innocent, rather that we don't have enough evidence to lynch him. To be fair, we don't have enough "evidence" to lynch anybody really. | ||
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On October 06 2010 06:26 drag_ wrote: This just furthers my point about you. You act as if my post was all part of your multiple phase plan, before completely changing the subject to you accusing me of lying in wait and singling you out with my 'slimy words'. Once again another clear shift of blame from yourself towards me and another accusative post. This is a strong point. I don't really understand why you're being so aggressive kingjames especially this early in the game when we don't really have anything solid pointing to anyone being red or not. Our big goal with this day 1 lynch is to gain information on player connections while avoiding lynching a blue. It's easy to overanalyze and assure yourself someone is mafia based on their posting this early but 99 times out of 100 it ends up NOT being the case. | ||
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On October 06 2010 07:34 Pandain wrote: I still believe Infun should be lynched if anyone, based around the fact he's technically off the "inactive list" while he hasn't really posted any content at all besides a link to a site. My main reason is that I don't think we should lynch Cynan, and Infun is the best person we have. I think we should make a stand right here, and everyone should start to vote for someone, since the way it stands now it is too easy for mafia to manipulate the votes and it will be 100% NOT a scum lynched. What information do we really get from lynching Infund? He's been posting information to assist DT's and Medics in carrying out their role effectively, I don't think he's been totally useless at all. | ||
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On October 06 2010 07:49 ghrur wrote: Speaking of lynching, I strongly suggest against group voting, or in other words Don't agree to bandwagon onto a random vote Don't agree to use individual RNGs and votes If we bandwagon onto a random vote, how can we know if the person voting is or isn't mafia? If we use a RNG, how can we be sure Mafia isn't rigging the votes and using the RNG as an out? Also, once again, I'm against voting an inactive so early on because A. They could get modkilled. Do we want to waste a lynch? B. Does it put pressure on them if they can't see the votes due to a busy schedule? C. Inactives could be very helpful later on. D. Mafia hardly ever hides in inactives. Personally, I'll probably read through the voting thread later and see who votes what and let that influence my choice because I'm still new. xD Learning how a veteran votes could be helpful! This is a good point. I'm using JeeJee as a placeholder for now but we need to look for someone who has posted in the thread but said almost nothing and has avoided participating in real discussion. Usually inexperienced mafia players are afraid to get involved in discussion because they fear they will incriminate themselves so they just mindlessly agree with other players or say things that have already been said a million times. After re-reading the thread the two best fits for that profile seem to be NukeTheBunnys and Crisis_ I'm keeping JeeJee as a placeholder for now. I'd like to see a stronger case from Pandain for the lynching of Infund, most likely I will switch my vote to crisis or nukethebunnys. | ||
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On October 06 2010 08:09 Pandain wrote: While these are different reasons for why I no longer am lynching an inactive, it is the same conclusion however. I think we SHOULD make a stand on who to lynch. We hardly have any time left (what, 3 hours?) Right now mafia can manipulate the vote so easily. I'm lynching Infunidibulum because he's posted without really posting, he gave a link to a site which, while perhaps worthwhile to look at, isn't really superb. And sure, we don't really get that much info, but who else do we get info from? I mean, theres the supposed "Cynan-Pandain" connection, but of course I know it won't really amount to anything. There are better candidates for the "posting without posting" thing, two of which I mentioned earlier. Infund has contributed by posting some information which might help some of our blues conduct themselves better and avoid being hit by the mafia. Yeah it doesn't take a whole lot of effort but it's something. | ||
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On October 06 2010 09:01 Pandain wrote: Crysis is new and has even more content than Infund. Nuke the bunny actually has been contributing, and has posted 8 times. Infun, however, is an expierenced player. He's by far the best bet in this situation(albeit wouldn't be if like 7 people weren't going to be modkilled) crisis_ hasn't contributed anything. I didn't catch Nukes first post where he does contribute a worthwhile opinion but Crisis_ hasn't done anything but agree or disagree with other people without offering anything himself. cSc hasn't offered anything and is just asking people to think for him. however this is not something I think mafia would do, I wouldn't vote to lynch him. Unless you can find a post where crisis_ contributed something useful I'm voting for him. What I find even more interesting is this post On October 05 2010 14:05 Crisis_ wrote: How nice of you to vote for me. Glad to know that your vote will be a waste, since: 1. I am participating in active discussion to try to help town and give advice to the DT, I wouldn't be doing this if I were scum. 2. There are better candidates to be lynched, i.e. inactives. He insists he has been participating in active discussion and has been helping the DT but look at his post: On October 05 2010 12:03 Crisis_ wrote: I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum. As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies. he didn't contribute anything he just quotes another post and agrees | ||
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On October 06 2010 09:11 Misder wrote: We shouldn't be lynching by what info we get from the lynch; most of the time, the conclusions are wrong, and the whole point of the game is to lynch the mafia. Infund only posted once this entire time, and it was a link to a guide that could have been found by googling. He didn't really post anything at all. His one quote: I'm really undecided who to vote for at this point. I think right now, its pretty useless trying to lynch an inactive. Theres about 4 hrs left, and the whole point of lynching an inactive is to pressure them to vote. I'm still going to vote for XeliN because he's played many games and I dont understand why hes not here. i don't think most people especially if they're new to the role would search for a guide, he gave DT's a useful link. that is some contribution while there are several people who haven't posted and others who have contributed literally zero original thought in their posts like crisis and cSc infund is a vet and lynching him on a whim like this is a bad idea | ||
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On October 06 2010 09:27 Pandain wrote: He's new. What he considers "contributing" may be less than what you do. Point is, he gave his opinions, and at least actually helped. Also, stop twisitng his words. He had been contributing in discussion on that subject(those posts were around the same page), while Infun has not at all besides that post in the begining. In addition, Crysis is at least putting himself out there with opinions, while Infun can't be linked to having a strong opinion on anything. All he did was link a site, and if its bad info, he can just say "Oh, sorry." And we still can't tell what his views are on anything. Don't forget, just linking a site which *may* help someone isn't unknown to mafia, mafia pretend to "help" all the time. But what I find most interesting is why you are so caught up in this. You even claim yourself, "We don't have evidence on anyone really" and were inactive up until infun started getting accused. But I'll just leave that as food for thought, as a valuable townie would be contributing none the less. Still, I've got my eyes on you O.O. DT's can't investigate till night 2 Why? At least Opz is being active, and he always posts scum like. He's like cynan, suscipcious, but playing his normal style so that must be remembered. Obviously some people are gonig to be modkilled. We should go after the people who will not, but have barely contributed(or go under the "guise" of contributing). Why do you keep saying infund contributed nothing? That guide would be very helpful for new DT's and he contributed some helpful advice which will keep our blues alive while crisis contributed 0 original information. Infund did throw out a strong opinion which was that blues shouldn't roleclaim and that they should play outside of conventional play style while crisis just agreed/disagreed with other people i understand he is new but to say he doesn't fit the profile of a non-contributing player masquerading as an active townie while infund does is just stupid. I don't think he's even likely mafia but you seem pretty bent on infund being scum while other people fit your reasoning better | ||
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On October 06 2010 10:00 Pandain wrote: I'm not saying he's contributed nothing, I'm saying he really hasn't contributed anything to this game. Plainly, Infun is a better and much more obvious choice than Crysis, who has at least been trying to contribute. And plainly I think he has been. Decent 3 paragraphs, but how does it help? Those who post without content are spammers, those who write essays without content are scum. Hyperbole, obviously, and I don't know for sure that infun is 100% scum. But I do know he's a better lynch in my eyes. Plainly, Infun has not contributed at all. He linked to a website, but anyone can really do that. Again, mafia will appear to help people all the time. And you don't always have to lie, or even want to lie as scum. (See: Ace's mafia guide). You're saying crysis is a better lynch than Infun. How? Crysis has at least attempted to contribute, and is new, so his posts will obviously be shorter than normal. He is adapting to this game, to accuse him and declare him mafia because he hasn't contributed "meaningfully" is the wrong conclusion. Instead, realize he is contributing, and push him to contribute more. Crysis makes 3 posts, talking about what he feels. Infun makes one in the very beginning, linking to a "helpful site." Then he disappears. Tell me which is the better choice. Infun didn't say much but what he did say contributed. He was giving advice to blues, that's something. I never said Crisis was mafia. If you read my post you'd know that. Crisis has posted more than infund and said less. I'm just pointing that out. I'm not declaring him mafia but for now he's the strongest candidate for my vote because he has posted several times without saying anything at all. I'm not going out on a limb and saying he's 100% red or even 50%, that would be retarded. | ||
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On October 06 2010 10:18 CynanMachae wrote: ##Vote Padain I'd like to hear why. I disagree with his insistence on lynching Infund but I see no reason to believe he is mafia. Are you merely trying to distance yourself from the accusation that the two of you are in some way connected? | ||
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On October 06 2010 11:07 cSc wrote: ##vote bumatlarge do you have a reason for this? | ||
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on top of that you edited your post. i would vote for you but something gives me a hunch that you're the village idiot. | ||
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On October 06 2010 11:59 infinitestory wrote: I want to say that sacks a very valuable DT, but especially to reveal poisoner that's definitely worth it. I'm not so sure about revealing roleblocker, because roleblocker's own ability is far more situational to the reds. @Divinek: The primary reason is that the mafia do not win if town dies. If town loses by VI, mafia also loses by VI. Don't say you didn't consider that. Your counterargument was stated at least twice previously, and better ones have been suggested. the town does not win if the VI is lynched so why does that matter? town threatening to lynch VI is empty and mafia would just ignore it completely. that wouldn't even work since in order to threaten to lynch the VI they have to know who the VI is meaning the mafia will likely know as well and can just hit him at night | ||
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On October 06 2010 12:09 infinitestory wrote: Alright. I give up on my argument. I relent. I crack under pressure. Does that please you? What I intended was simply to get people thinking hard about how to get rid of VI, as he is a problem that must be solved through the cooperation of multiple roles. I guess you have an excellent reason for showing me up here, though. Shall we discuss something else now? Why are you being so defensive? If bad arguments are made as the town we have to get rid of them and just move on. The best thing to do with the VI is to have the vigilante hit him. Anyone who is a suspect for VI will likely get hit by the mafia or vigilante so all we can do is try our best to reveal him. If he comes up on a rolecheck the detective needs to roleclaim, knowing who the VI is is crucial. | ||
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On October 06 2010 12:50 Crisis_ wrote: I'll just tell you right now, I'm not red. that was very convincing | ||
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On October 06 2010 13:02 Protactinium wrote: All is going exactly as I have planned. the dead don't speak | ||
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On October 07 2010 12:58 ~OpZ~ wrote: This is a strong point that Drag_ Is most likely town too....I fear you DrH. Drag_ going at him hard, maybe he's new and mafia, but still...too much attention? I'm agreeing with Drag_ here and I'd say he's most likely town aligned as well. I just was trying to diffuse a situation that could have been really distracting for the town | ||
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I looked at the day one votes and there were no votes for Infund. cSc voted for bumatlarge. Bumatlarge voted for protactinum. Infundibulum voted for Gruhr. I don't think there is much we can learn from the day 1 votes but it's best to keep it in mind, it's something. I'll go back over pages 15 onward. There was a lot of argumentation surrounding infundibulum so that needs to be looked at again. | ||
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Early on Pandain was bandwagoning infund for a lynch starting on page 15 with this post: On October 06 2010 05:50 Pandain wrote: Mmmm tough situation right now. While in this situation I would love to just RNG between the inactives, if everyone does that it gives too much room for mafia to manipulate that and get an inactive townie lynched instead. So one of my goals of pushing this "inactives to be lynched" concept is that we can also start to see whos posts because they realize they need to post more, and who posts just to get enough without really contributing anything. That leaves Dr. H and Infun, and unfortunately I can't really access H's posts from previous games to decide upon him. But Infun has only made this post, and it really adds no content of his own, while he "seems" to be contributing with roughly 2 decent paragraphs. Here's the post: His argument was that infund fit the profile of posting a lot of words with little content, a benchmark of mafia players attempting to appear as active townies. I argued that there were much better candidates for this position and I propositioned crisis as the best choice based on pandains logic. Our argument continued for a few pages and it should be read by everyone. On page 16 misder also called for a lynch of infundibulum. His argument was that infund had changed his playstyle. He then quickly changed his vote to OpZ on a "tiny suspicion". He never explained his reasoning. pandain later votes for SINiquity bumatlarge came into the thread saying his job as a townie would be to look out for the village idiot. ironically he himself voted for the village idiot, protactinum. on this same page I quoted cSc's vote for bumatlarge which he never once explained in the thread LSB softly accused bumatlarge of being mafia in this post: On October 07 2010 09:18 LSB wrote: Divinek is being pretty active Pandian is writing weird stories again. That probably means he's Red or Blue Bum says he's going on VI watch, that would be something Mafia would like to get recognized as Could someone tell me a bit more? Then again, DoctorH hasn't played for a while, so maybe his reentry means that he's willing to put in more effort As for the Newcomers, I haven't read much, but it should be pretty easy to tell if one of them is Green. Are any of them superactive? Lastly, Someone go Protect/Investigate Xelin. Brownbear just told us straight out that he's Red or Blue he also alluded to the fact that pandain might be red while pandain was the one who bandwagoned the now dead infund. on page 27 pandain lists bumatlarge as his second biggest suspect | ||
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For now my top suspects: 1. infinitestory - erratic arguments, edited posts, shows up once pressure is placed on him and suddenly becomes very active while it seems he was trying to stay quiet before. 2. misder- makes accusations but never backs them up. claims to have information that he never provides and has since been mostly MIA 3. SINiquity- only bothered to contribute by pointing out infinitestory's ridiculous VI argument and then spammed for a good 4-5 pages or so I don't feel extremely strong about any of these right now but on a quick reread these 3 stand out to me as the most suspicious. Hopefully this can spark our discussion on who to lynch day 2 the second thing we need to discuss is who should be rolechecked and who should be protected. pandain is a big rolecheck candidate along with Xelin. | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:22 DoctorHelvetica wrote: basic summary of posts/arguments/conflicts concerning the deceased: Early on Pandain was bandwagoning infund for a lynch starting on page 15 with this post: His argument was that infund fit the profile of posting a lot of words with little content, a benchmark of mafia players attempting to appear as active townies. I argued that there were much better candidates for this position and I propositioned crisis as the best choice based on pandains logic. Our argument continued for a few pages and it should be read by everyone. On page 16 misder also called for a lynch of infundibulum. His argument was that infund had changed his playstyle. He then quickly changed his vote to OpZ on a "tiny suspicion". He never explained his reasoning. pandain later votes for SINiquity bumatlarge came into the thread saying his job as a townie would be to look out for the village idiot. ironically he himself voted for the village idiot, protactinum. on this same page I quoted cSc's vote for bumatlarge which he never once explained in the thread LSB softly accused bumatlarge of being mafia in this post: he also alluded to the fact that pandain might be red while pandain was the one who bandwagoned the now dead infund. on page 27 pandain lists bumatlarge as his second biggest suspect i would have edited this in but i need to add infunds second post here: On October 06 2010 10:37 Infundibulum wrote: The reason I haven't been posting is because I haven't been home since last night (>24h ago) when I made that first post. Thanks for getting my back while I was gone Dr H. Pandain, anybody can link to a website - but I'm the one who did. I don't think I've seen that guide before on TL at all, and frankly guides like that are something we could use more of on TL so that people can learn to play in non-PM games. You said it isn't superb though. So what would you add? Also Misder, I'm still waiting to see your list of suspects that you talked about before. he doesn't really make any strong accusations although he does point a very very soft finger toward Misder here | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:38 Bill Murray wrote: @DoctorH why are you pushing easy mislynches? Well, I guess Misder is intermediate. You also say "these two people are town" in cSc and Pandain. I agree with doing that sometimes, but I do not see the point of it here. Why did you do that? becasue cSc and pandain were connected to the deaths of infund/bumatlarge through voting/argumentation i wanted to emphasize that I don't expect either of being scummy this is a game with a lot of new players who might just jump to the conclusion that whoever was most opposed to the deceased is the scum and I want to avoid people jumping to conclusions. i'm going to go read happy.fairytails first posts before i respond to your accusation of bloodyc0bbler although its certainly stronger than anything i've come up with for the time being. | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote: becasue cSc and pandain were connected to the deaths of infund/bumatlarge through voting/argumentation i wanted to emphasize that I don't expect either of being scummy this is a game with a lot of new players who might just jump to the conclusion that whoever was most opposed to the deceased is the scum and I want to avoid people jumping to conclusions. i'm going to go read happy.fairytails first posts before i respond to your accusation of bloodyc0bbler although its certainly stronger than anything i've come up with for the time being. I looked over his posts and see very little suspicious about his first three posts but his post about the analysis he had written strikes me as very strange. it's possible it was something he had been working on up until that point, although how good could it be if it was missing 12 pages of information? it seems happy.fairytale wanted to play the role of the "objective numbers guy" and he did exactly that. his second post with the statistics concerning cops seemed pretty neutral and didn't encourage cops to come forward until late in the game. if he's fishing for cops it's a pretty weak fish, especially considering there is an argument not too much later over whether detectives should roleclaim at all in which he doesn't participate is there something I'm missing here? you seem pretty certain and I'm not very familiar with BC's posting habits anyway so I don't have the same picture you do of him as an overall player although that end game contradiction is pretty strong, I'll give you that. Unfortunately happy.fairytale can't defend himself, although I'm not sure how he could | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:43 Bill Murray wrote: If you don't agree, I'm probably going to label you as scum. You are now approaching a conundrum, a twilight zone if you will. Do you bus your partner if you are scum in this situation? "Sure, Bill, BC is scum" when you know he is to build townie cred? I don't put it past you, and perhaps I shouldn't fill you in on the ability to do that as it can be a viable tactic, but here at TeamLiquid players are usually very loyal to their scumbuddies. Watch out how you respond to someone else's case, DoctorH. If you have something bad to say, it is usually better to not say anything at all. i'm agreeing that you have a good point and a good case that needs to be discussed more i'm not ready to jump on your bandwagon yet for reasons i explained before | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:49 Bill Murray wrote: because he is your scumbuddy throw him under the bus, doctorh iirc your last analysis technically lost the town the game | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:49 ~OpZ~ wrote: Haha prepare to die. -_____- Fuck man have I even seen your name this game? ....Suck up? Do you want out of the limelight good sir? You know what he is thinking too...Seriously, this post wasn't about to be dedicated to you, I was just getting a vote list and reading thread. How were you stuck? I'm still reading thread maybe you answer it in there. If that's the case, ignore this. If I remember to delete it you'll never know. Bum was terrible as the village idiot watch guy.... Seriously. lmao. ...See....Fuck...Listen to this man. Anyone pushing to kill flamewheel being protected, which is why I'm making sure to make that vote list. Sorry I been away guys. This. Misder, please answer. ........................................... What is this....I can't even begin to understand this. ...Okay....I see...So you're feeling me. I'm feeling Dr. H...a lil.....Ya feel me? Anyway....Point of the matter is...I have no idea, maybe it was the italics but your post just hurt to read. I agree, as you can see in my current post, I'm agreeing with you. I would also like to hear some from Crisi_ again....where's he been at? Oh...and rock and a hard place? -______________- I think final vote lists should be posted in thread @_@ Anyway...Votes an protact would of been nice to post. Oh wow...fml, BB doesn't tally. Fuckkkkkk I actually gotta count. BM protact Ghrur - Dunno yet....Gonna have to reread thread. Infest - ....Wtf bro.October 06 2010 10:49. (Mafia attempt at forming a bandwagon quickly, trying to snipe a good player?) SiNiquity -again need to reread reasoning. I think he posted more than what he said in Pandains quote....But maybe I'm just remembering something different because there really wasn't much reasoning given for flame's deathhhh. Dr. H is going against him so clearly I need to better look at him. NukeTheBunnys - ....waaaat. Crisis_ - Already said some thangs. bumatlarge - ...you are insane sir. after reading that i have no idea who you are thinking who are your top suspects? it seems like you're trying to call out infinitestory here | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:54 Bill Murray wrote: My analysis is seeing ~OpZ~, DoctorH, and BC as mafia My last analysis lynched an anti-town player. If I really "lost us the game", why is it still going? I just got a VI smurf out of the game. not only did you lynch the VI you started the entire bandwagon and people started following into it with very little convincing/thought on their part that's more suspicious than anything happy.fairytale said your case for BC is good, I'd put him right under misder on my list for this reason. happy.fairytale, besides his seemingly contradictory ending posts, didn't post anything that seemed scummy. he was playing the "statistics guy" and the fact that he was keeping a spreadsheet just furthers that thing. personally i hate the statistics guys because I feel like they turn the game into a lottery instead of a mindgame. his second post wasn't anything near fishing for detectives. BC could be fishing for medics or he could also be giving them helpful advice. do you have any reason as to why medics shouldn't follow his advice? misder is fanning flames and pointing fingers without backing anything up. naturally he is very stupid not to provide reasoning but it does cause misdirection in the town and that is scummy | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:58 Bill Murray wrote: lets have an open roleclaim. BC, you first. I'm town, but I'm not saying what at this point people can say "no, we shouldn't roleclaim, it is way too early". I just want people to claim town/townie, not what role they are. If I was mafia, I wouldn't have the balls to say this. This is too obvious to be the play of mafia. Lynch BC if I get mislynched. If he flips red, look at ~OpZ~ and DoctorH. If you all want to win, listen to me. Claim. I'm claiming town. We need to consolidate through claims. Trust me on this one, and we will have a good game. everyone is going to roleclaim town what a useless post are you hoping someone will fuck up and claim their blue role? | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote: everyone is going to roleclaim town what a useless post are you hoping someone will fuck up and claim their blue role? not to mention your shitty no true scotsman argument "no real mafia would do this because it's too ballsy" doesn't mean anything, it's a fallacy. not to mention this requires no balls or subtlety since everyone will claim town and no one will learn anything | ||
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On October 07 2010 13:59 Bill Murray wrote: The fact I am pretty sure I know who 3 high-level mafia are Is that good enough for you? Do I need to be a martyr for the town to win? Make me a martyr, DoctorH, get me lynched so they can see I'm town. how is knowing who 3 mafia are relevant to how medics should play even if BC is mafia he gave solid advice to medics. how else should medics play? remember the point here is not who is mafia and who isn't but how medics should perform their role during the night. don't dodge questions | ||
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On October 07 2010 14:01 Bill Murray wrote: not everyone will claim town, there will be townies amongst us. This way we can weed out the greens. what the fuck does that even mean? On October 07 2010 14:02 Bill Murray wrote: What are you Doctor H? town but i'm more confused by your plan than anything | ||
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On October 07 2010 14:05 Bill Murray wrote: we are getting EVERYONE to say they're town or whatever. If I flip, lynch BC/OpZ. DoctorH is possibly cleared. who says you're going to flip anything why would we lynch you since you're the vi | ||
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On October 07 2010 14:13 ~OpZ~ wrote: ...........How......Does.....That....Clear.....Anyone. Omg. Weed out the greens? Are you kidding me? Feed the mafia every blue on a silver platter? Argh. And how am I even possible mafia? Both you and Misder have said this but I would like some proof. Also Dr.H, my suspects are happyfairytale/BC (thanks to BM posting HFT's contradiction), BM - actually...why are we not lynching him. We should lynch him. He started Prot lynch, and is probably acting insane to live. Not so much Pandain, Drag_ and King seem pretty town to me. InfiniteStory seems to be playing better now. Need him to post his suspects with some argument though. Crisis and Ghrur....Possible or possible new mistake. Jumping into lynches with no reasoning is bad and we need to put them in the spotlight. Nobody has been mentioning them (Ghrur might of posted on second thought, FML i'm so tired) But that's who and why. Divinek should be online right now actually.... gruhr came out and justified his choice later although it wasn't the best reasoning im most suspicious of BC and misder BM always plays like this when he's town, he rarely makes a whole lot of sense | ||
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i have a hunch there are two VI's and he's one of them. my vote is going to go to misder unless he can defend himself. i like you bill murray, but you need to start making sense before I trust you. | ||
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On October 07 2010 15:44 Bill Murray wrote: Well, BC and OpZ still don't realize the townie pm is phrased "Town" not citizen not townie Town. They don't realize this. Why would they not realize that? @Drag_ I am green, and on the side of good. Do not question me, bro. oh i understand what you are saying now but to be honest it's a bit far fetched. the terms town/townie/pro-town/etc. are pretty much interchangeable and to go off and say someone is 100% mafia for choosing one or the other is going WAY out on a limb let's look at behavior and arguments, not arbitrary wordplay | ||
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On October 08 2010 00:55 XeliN wrote: My PM was from Brownbear OpZ and Amber I am not siding with Bill in any way, all I am saying is I consider him a Town player. That doesn't mean I am agreeing with his arguments, suspicions or general style of play, but from what he has typed he is fairly clearly a Green, town player. Here you say you're not supporting/agreeing with his arguments or suspicions but yet you join his bandwagon and vote for BC? LOL | ||
DoctorHelvetica
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##Vote Xelin | ||
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You're not getting away with being inactive this time buddy. Where is the evidence for your original accusations? Why did you fingerpoint and run away? Why did you fingerpoint, call out other players for not backing up their accusations, then go inactive without backing up your accusations? I might have changed my vote to Xelin for the time being but you're still under fire here. | ||
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On October 08 2010 05:22 XeliN wrote: I'll make a concise post addressing all of you wonderful people questioning me in a little bit, currently I am waiting on a piece of information. To briefly outline a few things however. I believe Bill to be 100% Green Town I am suspicious of the assertion that both Brown and Artanis sent out role PM's, my inclination is to think only Brown did My vote on Bloody was initially a more sincere one, now it is a placeholder whilst I evaluate, if it makes any of you feel more comfortable I'll change it to myself Divinek likes to say fuck that eases my mind about you just a little bit. if misder doesn't say anything today he's my #1 | ||
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On October 08 2010 05:30 drag_ wrote: There are so many little sub-arguments going on right now I'm really struggling to make heads or tails of anything. That said, while BM may be a tool, I think it's more important to crack down on inactive people. In a 25 person game it's really easy to slip under the radar. I feel like focussing on BM is just a waste of time atm. thats why his spamming is horrible it distracts the town and prevents us from focusing on anything that matters. if anything it's a valuable scum tactic if it was anyone else i'd say they were mafia but BM does this when he is town in every single game | ||
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On October 08 2010 05:42 Pandain wrote: An Analysis of Bill Murray: Summary: Overall, BM, you have been unproductive, contradictory, blatantly obvious, using logical fallacies, and all the while under the protection of "I'm BM." Yet in the first post I quoted you said you only do the "one line spam" when your scum(or in this case VI) However, I do think there is a high chance of him being VI. Therefore, I propose we lynch someone else and vigi him tonight. Also, in the scenario in which he doesn't die, we lynch him. This way we get rid of all possible avenues. If he is VI, he will be killed unless mafia get a lucky roleblock(or unlucky, since they will lose next day) or a medic is really "interesting" and protects him. But that won't happen. If he is mafia, then he will either die or be lynched tommorow. If he is town, he will just die. But in the scenario he is either GF or we have no vigi, I also propose we vote double Lynch for tommorow, for him and another person, or just 2 new suspects. I feel we will have far enough evidence to analyze. I believe I have shown sufficient proof of BM being anti town, and urge you all to consider and comment. I will tackle the "Oh BM always does this" by analyzing his posts in previous games as mafia and town. Hopefully that will be done by tommorow at the VERY latest, hopefully by today. His posts this game: Pre game. Note this very much. Now, in Team Melee Mafia Bill Murray actually made some sense and had decent sized posts, and definitely didn't spam. In his own words, he's playing his own scum game. Basically the only post in day 1. RL issues can occur, but note that he's just making an excuse for inactivity. Now, I believe that he had RL stuff for a number of reasons: 1.If we were going after inactives, why would he seem so inactive? Even though he has an excuse, it might've been better for a full post. So slightly unlikely. 2.His mafia brothers probably would have been like "OMG BM HURRY UP AND POST SO THEY DONT LYNCH YOU." Note that this whole post and its explanation revolve around wifom, but I believe logical wifom. Obviously does not clear him, however. *yawn* Says nothing, but its alright, as long as he makes a great post right? BAD! BAD BILL MURRAY! What is this? He gives three opinions in one sentence without backing any of it up. How is he happy with amber or I? Why does he like kingjames? Posting without content, its the same as voting without a reason. Both scum like. Doesn't make sense, first of all if I am a detective I wouldn't know yet(can't check.) Here is his long "informed" post. Couple of things to note: 1.He says Dr. H is probably town. Compare this with his recent accusation of him, along with opz and BC. Now, opinions can change, so I'll have more to say as I review more posts. 2. A series of logical fallacies and random conclusions from facts. Opz asked Misder to share his suspect list. Therefore, they are buddying and both mafia despite the fact Opz has been suscipcious of Misder this whole game. Not logical. Starts hatin' on the strategy and talking about policy, claiming they are "cluttering up the thread." Yet he spams just in the last 5 pages like cwazy. Also he tells them to stop hunting for the DT yet publicly announces I'm the DT. IN THE SAME POST! His evidence against Proctatorium. Let's see his evidence against him: 1. Makes pro town posts 2.Smurf 3.Fishing for the DT(How? And you just claimed I'm the DT, yet bashed Proctat for "trying to find the DT and who he was." Utter hypocricy. 4.How would you know I'm DT? I am in utter shock how Protact got lynched. It was horrible, and should've ended the game if not for Brown Bear's mercy. All of these points are illogical and in error, to the extreme. Bill Murray knows better. Even though he may seem stupid and is sometimes illogical, he's not to this extreme. This is scum/VI BM. Great evidence. Are you TRYING to get yourself lynched? Notice he's making so many logical fallacies. And noticable too. Recently he's just started random spamming and claiming to lynch people because they claimed "town". I'm so confused by him. Alright, you were able to after a while. Where's your case? *sighs* You claimed he was mafia(or one really good VI). We expected him not to be VI. For all purposes, BM got a townie lynched, not only that but a good one too. Mafia doesn't know who the VI is, so for all intents and purposes if mafia pushed forward this lynch it would be aimed at a very experienced town. Also notes he said he knew he was anti town, yet one of the reasons he voted for him was because he made pro town posts. What the fadoodle? Two posts before the previous one here, Brownbear clearly said the game will not end. In fact, just after posting it, BM would've been able to see it. In fact, Brown bear responds to something else and BM responds to that. Note this was 5 minutes after Brownbear clearly said we were not restarting, and BM responded in between. So it's 100% certain BM knew the game would not end. So why would he claim town? 1.He's mafia 2.He's VI 3. He has a horrible disease which makes him have short term memory loss every 5 minutes. Bill Murray does not make sense. For rizzles? Look back at that previous post my nizzle. Then start thinking out of your grizzle some more. Note he claims feeling bad for lynching him, yet now he proudly proclaims it. Contradictions everywhere, my friend. Remember that first post of yours? How you were becoming more content oriented and now only spammed as scum(or perhaps VI)? Eh? Pure wifom and speculative, but I thought it might be interesting to note he said VIs instead of the singular VI. Implying theres more than one VI. Still, just wordplay analysis. + Show Spoiler + On October 07 2010 13:35 Bill Murray wrote: This shows to me that the person who is putting the hits in sucks at blue sniping. Let me decide who is high tier enough to call the shots yet not hit a blue. 1. LSB 3. Bill Murray 4. Pandain 5. SouthRawrea 6. Amber[LighT] 7. Infundibulum 8. Divinek 9. Misder 10.SINiquity 11.XeliN 12.RebirthOfLegend 13.~OpZ~ 14.DoctorHelvetica 15.infinitestory 16.cSc ->17. 18.NukeTheBunnys 19.Crisis_ 20.drag_ 21.CynanMachae 22.meeple 23.kingjames01 24.ghrur Doing an iso on slot 17 I have viewed this post as gloating, and rolefishing. Why would BloodyC0bbler have reason to be fishing for a medic? Consider the fact that Happy.Fairytale was spouting babble about the DT, and I am very happy voting to lynch slot 17 which was Happy.Fairytale and is now BloodyC0bbler. Posts 234/235 by Happy.Fairytale were posts to fake being useful to the town Post 255 is him fishing for Detectives through number "analysis" Post 257 by Happy.Fairytale: Please read this+ Show Spoiler + On October 05 2010 23:19 Happy.fairytail wrote: Yeah, I'm pretty concerned that we could potentially have 8 mod deaths by the end of today. (Not worried about Bill Murray and Cynan, it seems they're around and will post in time) Also, in terms of accusations, I think we should start now. We only have 14 hours before the day ends, so we should give a few hours to accusations, a few hours to defending, a few hours to some townsperson deliberation, and a few hours to vote. So inactives, now is the time for you guys to start speaking up. I'm going to point out JeeJee just 'cuz he's at the top of the inactive list, and I know he's around because I just checked his post history and his last post was 10 hrs ago (13:09 TL time). So speak up man. This shows that he is just talking for the sake of talking. This makes the second time in a row he has posted right after his original post. If he was town, he would only need one really lengthy post, or a string of spam. I believe he is putting on a false face. I hope that you all will be convinced of Happy.Fairytale/BloodyC0bbler (remember, they're the same person as the slot) being scum. BC's play is a LOT weaker as scum based upon meta, and his play this game is so weak I wasn't even sure he was even IN the game. These two things are nearly an open contradiction. "I haven't read 12 pages" followed immediately by 35 minutes and then "I had all this analysis done on this awesome spreadsheet". BULLSHIT. Lynch BloodyC0bbler. Spoilered for your convienance. This whole post is interesting, so let's analyze it. "Let's see who is high tier enough to not hit a blue." Couple of things wrong with this: 1. Because they did not hit a blue, they are bad at blue sniping. False. 2. Because of this, they must be so high tier so they didn't hit a blue. False. Why the fadoodle would they not hit a blue? 3.BC would be high tier enough to not hit a blue. False. In BM's own game BC basically led the mafia, leading to blue snipe after blue snipe. As you may note we are seeing a series of logical fallacies and incorrect reasoning. To the extreme. Note the process above. It does not make sense at all. People may just say "Oh, he's BM and he's just stupid." But that's how he won penalty mafia, and if someone has gone to this extreme they are not pro town. Again he also claims BC is fishing for blues, yet what the frick? He is not at all. There is no way you could get that out of what Proctat was saying, or BC. He's being stupid, for the sake of being stupid. However, the contradiction is the (only) valuable part of this, and while interesting, is too easily explained by a myriad of what happened in RL, and we do not have happy tail with us. BM is proving far more interesting anyway. To Dr. H. Starts to insinuate he's scum on no basis. So much that's wrong with this. First of all, you should've lost us the game. You lynched a person that should've seemed pro town, but because your'e either scum or mafia you're playing stupid and spammy. Unfortunately, you got alot of new players to support you in day 1. This shall not happen again . Also still thinks Doctor H is mafia, despite nothing having changed from when he thought he was town. Right after a previous post. Stop trying to prove your' town by finding "tells" in YOUR OWN posts. Anyone knows this is pointless, so why are you doing it? Because you're mafia, or VI(mostly VI). Stupid stupid stupid argument. Made up of wifom("If I was mafia I wouldn't have the balls to say this. This is too obvious."). Made up of stupidity(let's open roleclaim!) Made up of no content( Just trust me.) This post sets me off. It's like he's asking to be lynched. If he was town, why would he asked to be lynched? In addition, he can't know who the 3 mafia already are. He's asking Dr. H to lynch him(still think's hes mafia, remember that!). The only reason he would want that is if he is VI. Oh, now he claims Doctor H might be cleared. Yet shouldn't his plan confirm or condemn them? Fail logic. First off, he fishes for mad hatter(ACTUALLY does), outright saying "Just claim to me. Especially if you are inexpierenced and need guidance" Don't fall for this trick, new folk. Also, how the frick does Brownbear saying "Protact is an amazing player" make there be only one VI. Right now BM is just trying to use a tactic I call "Appeal to Impulse". This is where he says a point, attempts to get someone to do something, and quickly before anyone can really talk about it. Here he's just spamming "everyone claim now! Next post! Do it!" Also, note in his plan Blues would also put "Town" or "townie". OF course, according to Opz Artanis sent him Townie. But don't claim this plan means he's town, it catches the blues as well. And now he has been trying to convince the new people to claim as soon as possible. When I say claim, note I don't just mean the role claim. By claiming, BM the Scum would know if they were blue as well IF he trusted the majority. From there he could work out the blues. For he himself wouldn't know the exact wording if he was scum. Really the only reason he would start to begin such an insane plan is if he knew it was stupid, he knew it would cause controversy. He's red or VI. The plan should be discarded. We can analyze it for why it would've been sent out, but please not how people respond. And according to Opz, theres more than one way people got it. So it's really useless. Most importantly, it ruins the spirit of the game, and makes babies go berserk when they see it and go emo later in life. Now begins the mass use of "Appeal to Impulse" + Show Spoiler + On October 07 2010 14:10 Bill Murray wrote: ~OpZ~ you're playing well, I'll admit that, but you are better as mafia than BC. You are Town, right? I'm Town. Honest. Appeal to impulse gogogogogogogooggo On October 07 2010 14:22 Bill Murray wrote: I lynched an anti-town role. Are you dumb? Are you town or not? Claim something. Claim Town/Townie/MadHatter with a bomb on BC plz Appeal to impulse gogogogogogogogogogo On October 07 2010 14:23 Bill Murray wrote: Pretty sure ~OpZ~ is mafia OpZ, claim something bro Appeal to impulse gogogogogogogogogogo On October 07 2010 14:25 Bill Murray wrote: ~OpZ~ claim something Are you Town/Townie? pick one Gogogogogogogogogogogoggogogogogogo On October 07 2010 14:31 Bill Murray wrote: no doctorh is fine you, however, are not claim gogogogogogogogogogogogogog On October 07 2010 14:32 Bill Murray wrote: go read your role PM opz are you a town or are you a townie? gogogogogogogogogogogogo On October 07 2010 14:32 Bill Murray wrote: are you a hatter? *starts panting* Go.go.go.gogogogoogo *breathes* On October 07 2010 14:32 Bill Murray wrote: just go read your role pm and tell me if you are town *panting, deep breathes* go.....go....go.....go.... On October 07 2010 14:32 Bill Murray wrote: it's red, isn't it? random speculation yay On October 07 2010 14:46 Bill Murray wrote: Furthermore, James, you need to claim Town/Townie go..............go.......*very faint* On October 07 2010 14:46 Bill Murray wrote: You, too, infinitestory. .................................g.g...g.(can't finish) On October 07 2010 14:49 Bill Murray wrote: that someone is you. Happy.Fairytale is you. Are you disputing that? you replaced into his slot. That's you. Deal with it. I'm not going to stop spamming until you claim either a) town b) townie c) you don't claim and we lynch you to see what you'll flip *looks with open mouth, sweat everywhere, can't say anymore* On October 07 2010 14:51 Bill Murray wrote: which did you pick as your godfather fakerole, BC? Town or Townie? *dead* Now, after all that we see he reveals his"Majestic plan" I''m sorry, but this plan is and was horrible, and disproved because it was revealed people were sent town or townie. In addition, you're giving mafia a 50% chance of getting it "right"(which turned out to be either). I won't comment anymore because of what Brownbear said. But seriously, I'm disgusted. I'm not usually this strong about an issue, but this ruins the spirit of the game. And I'm saddened with myself that I even have to comment this much into viewing why you might propose it, however far away from actually comparing pms might be. It's a good plan, but against the spirit of the game. great analysis pandain. I did play in a game with BM where he was town and spammed like this but in a game with the possibility of several village idiots it's far too dangerous to lynch him. who is your suspect for todays lynch out of curiosity? | ||
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On October 08 2010 06:13 LSB wrote: My idea for dealing for Bill Murray. (This is for figuring out if he is red/VI) Okay, instead of killing him today, we declare that we are going to kill him tomorrow, with a double lynch. Mafia knows that we will kill Bill tomorrow, if Bill is VI, Mafia will have to kill him tonight or else they will lose. But if Bill is Mafia, mafia can't kill Bill, and we would know that he is red. This way we get to have mafia waste on of their hits or lose. this is the same stupid thing infinitestory proposed we lose if we lynch bill murray and he's vi, everyone loses. this is a bad bad idea | ||
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On October 08 2010 06:29 LSB wrote: Oops. Didn't notice his posts Okay, I'll carry on his torch then. This is something we should rely on. The benefits are pretty clear. Mafia has to use up one of their lynchs. The point isn't whether or not the town is going to commit suicide. We will lynch BM tomorrow because we will know he is Mafia. But if Bill Murray isn't mafia, Mafia has to kill Bill Murray or they lose. The Mafia plays to win if town lynches bill murray as a threat to end the game, the town still loses if BM is VI. if BM isn't mafia and isn't VI then we've wasted a lynch AND put no pressure on the mafia. the point is that this is a suicide threat. our goal is not for mafia to lose it is for town to win. | ||
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On October 08 2010 06:38 LSB wrote: We can double lynch, that's why we wouldn't waste a lynch. Also, the point is, BM won't be Vanilla Town when we put his head up to the chopping block, he'd either be dead by Scum hands, or he would be red. or he'll be village idiot and bill murray wins and we lose. why should we put our chance of winning this game in the hands of the mafia? we are not lynching someone who is a big candidate for village idiot. we are not doing that. | ||
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On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote: We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do. The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia. or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place | ||
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On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote: I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this | ||
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On October 08 2010 06:56 XeliN wrote: Ok I was going to try to write a large response post to some of the things people have said about me, but I'm finding it difficult currently due to the ambiguity of the assertions, there have been some statements such as "sticking his neck out" "sided with bill" and other such things. I know this will sound a little hmm arrogant or presumptuous maybe, but for the sake of clarity: if anyone has any specific questions about my play, conduct, arguments or actions that they would like me to directly answer then please state them clearly and I will do so . I'm the most likely to be lynched atm, so plz humor me xD i'm more than likely going to be changing my vote to misder or nukethebunnys in the near future, for now i'm using you as a placeholder don't worry I'm not that suspicious. you explained why you jumped on BM's bandwagon to have BC lynch and you didn't come off as scummy to me in any way. | ||
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On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote: Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid | ||
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On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote: Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him. On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose. so lets clarify you are saying if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose? if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't | ||
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On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote: We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan. The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do. Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view. Assume we are following through with our plan. It's Night 2. Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them. They either have two options 1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster 2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red. Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia. As for the Town. It's Day 3. From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post. If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia. What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is red Mafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information. well we have to wait on what the mafia does. the mafia can just not kill bill murray knowing the town will lynch him effectively increasing their KP assuming bill is NOT mafia this is no different from pressuring anyone. you call someone out as mafia and if they don't die during the night you lynch them. this only pressures the mafia if that player is mafia. i don't necessarily disagree with your argument, i disagreed initially because I was worried you were pulling the "if you don't kill the VI, we'll lynch the VI" argument which is a loss scenario for the town. am I making sense? the mafia only stands to lose anything here if BM is mafia and I don't think that's the case. he is a strong VI case if there is a second VI but he's played like this as town before. i really just think he's green (especially considering the PM trick he pulled) | ||
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On October 08 2010 08:30 Amber[LighT] wrote: I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched) Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it. Do you really feel Xelin is the strongest candidate for tonights lynch? He has a tenuous connection with Bill Murray and BB implied he might have a blue/red role. If BM is mafia then I'd say Xelin probably is as well but I don't want to risk lynching a blue until we have more information on BM if that makes sense. | ||
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On October 08 2010 10:21 kane]deth[ wrote: I suppose proof was a bad word to use there. The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random. I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile? search for the title of this thread in search and then you can filter the search results by poster name | ||
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On October 08 2010 12:15 SiNiquity wrote: Disclaimer: This post is does not in any way encourage additional posting of PM or PM related information, nor do I wish to further the discussion of the PMs themselves. This post contains full disclosure of BM's method to further discourage any claiming. However, the prior claims are here to stay, for better or for worse. There's nothing that can be done, yet they've altered the meta game and as such cannot be ignored. Alternatively a host could simply come out and confirm that the PM messages were different dependent on host, alleviating us of this meta-game aspect entirely. But if not, then the information's there, and should be taken full advantage of by the townies. Now, in short, for those that don't feel like reading the spam starting from page 29 and going really until about page 35, Bill Murray demanded players to roleclaim, but emphasized players should carefully reread their PMs before claiming. It was actually very clever, as there was an underlying secret that only town players would recognize: town players were not PM'ed the word "town" but rather "townie" as their role. XeliN sums this up nicely: Ironically, Bill, either in a burst of genius or insanity, incessantly insisted the correct answer was "town." And, best of yet, some people fell for it: (Note: BC is especially guilty in this regard, as he kept referring to the town post in the OP as his point of reference). In fact the only player that correctly roleclaimed as far as I can surmise is OpZ: Even now Bill maintains "town" is the correct answer, and his vigilance for this charade is admirable yet simultaneously disturbing on some deeper level. However, props to him for maintaining it for so long (I'd certainly be convinced). Now there is the caveat that there were different wording in the PMs based on the host. As such, take the following conclusions with a grain of salt: Confirmed players from my perspective:
Suspect players from my perspective:
Still need to look at the votes over the past day to see if there's anything worthwhile there. But I'm certainly curious as to what one of the "town" players will flip ~ if town, then there's possibly a host discrepancy. If not, then this only confirms my suspicions. It's the strongest lead we've got and I see no reason not to pursue it. Anyway I'm off to bed to mull this over. you realize the whole point of what bill was saying was that people who claimed town were town right? what an awfully long post with zero content and zero point | ||
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On October 08 2010 15:42 XeliN wrote: And Dr I ought to add, because it will be painfully obvious to the mafia at this point, that I am a Green Town player. The only way I would come out openly about being 100% assured that Bill is a Green Town player is if I was also a Green Town player and could see right off the bat what he was attempting to achieve in his PM shenanigans. i think we should drop the PM shenanigans for good we already know some people got told townie and some got told town so it's irrelevant, let's move on please onto something that actually has weight in this game | ||
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On October 08 2010 16:16 Bill Murray wrote: actually, it's the opposite, siniquity. you must be blue/mafia. don't be stupid it has literally been confirmed by the mod that this is not the case | ||
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On October 08 2010 16:25 Bill Murray wrote: actually, doctorh, mine isn't like that. yours isn't like what? some received a pm that said town some received townie, this has been confirmed and the fact that you're still falling back on your PM trap that was proved to be completely worthless is pathetic please drop it i'm more interested to hear why you think crisis_ and cynanmachae are scum since no one has made a good case for either of them yet | ||
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On October 08 2010 16:27 Bill Murray wrote: If anything your support of me should confirm you as a player. You were the only person to really pick up on what I was saying, other than perhaps InfiniteStory. I'd like to hear more on what he meant. I doubt he was claiming town as blue, but was claiming "town" as green. That's what I was doing, because it is a good strategy to weed out the greens through the word "town" NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO it was proven false it was proven false literally 100% proven false by brownbear because some received differently worded role pm's from artanis some received differently worded role pm's from artanis some received differently worded role pm's from artanis some received differently worded role pm's from artanis how many times is that going to be brought up before you accept it and stop pretending that the town/townie distinction means anything | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:00 Bill Murray wrote: at least i'm not slinging ad hom like BC "yeah my whole argument isuseless but at least i'm not as bad as BC" you just keep getting worse and worse | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:01 Bill Murray wrote: it also is cool some people picked up on that, because some got them from BB I am sorry he worded his role pm that way, and I am not posting it or anything. I could be lying, right? It's all WIFOM. well i'm glad you're admitting your argument has been useless. so i'm guessing that means you have to take back any accusations made on the basis of your non existent trap does this mean you're going to drop it? | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:07 XeliN wrote: Dr claiming there is nothing of value whatsoever to be gleaned from the earlier PM discussions due to the fact it has now been revealed that 2 types were sent is false imo. Using them as a basis for argument may have flaws but the idea that they lack any merit whatsoever is not true. how do they have any merit when you couldn't possibly trap anyone with them considering both terms were used in role PM's? | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:08 Bill Murray wrote: I believed BC was mafia before the trap based upon Happy.Fairytale's play. I actually got stuck in WIFOM land with opz, not sure if he's blue/mafia. See my above post. I felt like I've already dropped it. I'm going to go put my vote on someone where it counts. good. I'd like to hear your case for crisis_, I've been a bit suspicious of him myself. Although I don't have any reason I'm aware of to suspect cynanmachae. Would you mind elaborating on why you believe him to be mafia? You are under a lot of pressure as a potential mafia/VI right now so you better back-up anything and everything you say. Hopefully with something that's true this time. | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:10 Bill Murray wrote: is kane]deth[ or RoL playing? kane]deth[ voted lol he apparently wants to double lynch Can we wagon NukeTheBunnys? kanedeth came back | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:13 Bill Murray wrote: basically, we have a day to put pressure on someone. We need to start a wagon on mafia. Who are your top suspects, DoctorH? I suspect misder of being mafia I suspect Xelin and cynanmachae of being red or blue, I also suspect opz is a red or blue role although I don't feel comfortable deciding which. I plan on doing a lot more analysis tomorrow, it's quite late. That's why I particularly want to hear your case about cynanmachae | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I suspect misder of being mafia I suspect Xelin and cynanmachae of being red or blue, I also suspect opz is a red or blue role although I don't feel comfortable deciding which. I plan on doing a lot more analysis tomorrow, it's quite late. That's why I particularly want to hear your case about cynanmachae if you want to put pressure on nukethebunnys I'm ok with that. he hasn't posted much and I've seen his name come up a few times but I haven't taken the time to really analyze his posts yet another name thats on my radar is SINiquity. he has hardly posted but he just now pops in with a huge post in response to your arguments that made no sense and had a 100% wrong conclusion. came off as a weak attempt to cause distraction. by then we had moved on from what you were saying and were putting pressure on misder and xelin and he comes back to revisit it while also harshly misinterpreting what you were saying and your conclusions what do you think of that? | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:19 XeliN wrote: Well for example some, such as I, will be able to form an opinion of Bill alignment. Also earlier in the thread when put under pressure by Bill some people seem people seemed very reluctant and almost dodging the issue when asked. Such a reaction would certainly be consistent with a mafia player being put under pressure to pretend to be a role they are not but try not to get caught in a lie. it's mainly useful for determining towns people as the reaction given by some makes it quite likely they are Town. I agree with you though using it as evidence of people being trapped definitively doesn't work due to the fact we do not know how all of the PM's were phrased. I can get behind this. I think Bill is probably green and this is part of the reason I dislike the push earlier in this thread to force mafia to kill him or we lynch him. I really doubt he's mafia or village idiot in fact if anyone is village idiot it's probably crisis_ On October 07 2010 14:54 Crisis_ wrote: So about my "rock and hard place" comment, I was talking about how I was 2nd on the votelist, and I didn't have much of a choice, otherwise I would have been lynched. Why would I want to die on day 1?... Oh and if you don't believe I'm not red, you can go ahead and lynch me to find out. Sheesh. he's been playing quite suspiciously and it all seems a little bit hammed up to me. forced if you will. I'm not gonna call him out as 100% VI but I don't think we should lynch him. in fact he is a good candidate for a rolecheck | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:23 XeliN wrote: Moving on however, For what reasons do you think I am Red or Blue. Outline your thought process behind the suspicion. because of what BB said when you weren't modkilled you also said something along the lines that you were "waiting on a piece of information" and that struck me as a possible reference to a DT rolecheck. If you could clarify what you meant by that that would be great. On October 08 2010 05:22 XeliN wrote: I'll make a concise post addressing all of you wonderful people questioning me in a little bit, currently I am waiting on a piece of information. To briefly outline a few things however. I believe Bill to be 100% Green Town I am suspicious of the assertion that both Brown and Artanis sent out role PM's, my inclination is to think only Brown did My vote on Bloody was initially a more sincere one, now it is a placeholder whilst I evaluate, if it makes any of you feel more comfortable I'll change it to myself Divinek likes to say fuck | ||
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On October 08 2010 17:39 Bill Murray wrote: it could be a lie to save the mafia i could be a 10 year old asian girl lets not go down this path please | ||
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On October 09 2010 03:22 Pandain wrote: The thing is, there were less than three hours to go. And instead of saving yourself, you voted a person who was sure not to get lynched. In fact, you even suspect Crisis now and yet you didn't vote for him. So, here's what we can deduce from that 1.You didn't feel threatened. Commentary: But why is this? There were less than three hours to go. So I think it's a viable assumption to say you felt that another person would spring up. And in fact, in the last 3 hours Proctat got 5 votes. Suspicious, much? It's suspicious enough that I declare a Panda Investigative Decree that enables me to look through your posts without a warrant. Small post, doesn't really say anything. All this says is "I don't know what to do. You tell me." While that's okay for newer players to an extent, Cynan has played several games before. This isn't neccesarily bad, sprouting ideas, but it isn't that good either. Several things wrong with this. First, he doesn't do what he says. "1.I'm going to vote for an inactive." 8 hours later he votes for me. Now, he's already said that he doesn't think theres going to be enough speculation. And it's not too far a stretch to say that he may have found enough evidence on me to indicate I might be mafia. Really the only thign he contributes here is "Voting against random doesn't accomplish anything cause it doesn't force them to do anything." Anything else he doesn't do, repeats what others said, or states the obvious. This is perhaps one of the most interesting posts. Now, let's analyze some stuff. Woah... was that a soft blue claim? Or was it just saying "im townie so don't lynch me. " This is something that must be noted. However, if he's blue, and he's on the lynch, then why is he voting for me? Him and crisis are tied at 3 votes, and if he's blue why doesn't he saeve himself? He's already noted he's tied for leading in votes. That doesn't make sense. Also in this post he leaps to several conclusions that do not spring from the facts. Let's see what he says 1. "Pandain knows I'm town, therefore he must be mafia. " Whats wrong: First off, I don't know your town. I was merely stating that you have been playing along with your normal behavior in previous games. I clearly state my reasons for stating them, and it is because he was consistent with his previous play. Second off, does analysis play no role in determining if someone is mafia? You seem to have left that out. Cynan's post here does not make sense from a self serving perspective or a logical perspective and really only comes to light if he's mafia. 2."Pandain wants to get me lynched so he can build town cred." Whats wrong: How would defending you when you only had two votes at the time help get you lynched? That doesn't make any sense. *yawn* Alright last non-spam post by him. First off, you didn't say you didn't post because of BM's waste, don't make that up. And due to the soft claim blue it seems, I'm suprised you didn't find it that threatening WITH ONLY 3 HOURS TO GO! Also now he's not votin gdouble lynch, which is extremely anti town because 1.It allows BM the VI/ BM the Mafia to possibly live through the night if no vigi. 2. We WILL have enough info already, look at all this debate we have. Cynan is Mafia What I find to be the most interesting aspect of this, is that although you defended him from a lynch he immediately jumped to attack you, this doesn't seem very reasonable to me. I'd rather vote for infinitestory or SINiquity right now. infinitestory started this game with bad arguments, admitted he cracked under pressure, admitted his arguments were bad, then continued the rest of the game contributing nothing and riding on the coattails of other peoples arguments. That's pretty scummy if you ask me. I'm going over SINiquitys posts right now. He hasn't argued even a single original thought but he did manage to spam the shit out of the thread for a while. Then he comes back with a huge long post trying to deflect attention back to Bill Murrays failed arguments, except he twisted the conclusions around to incriminate me and other players BM never accused in the first place. | ||
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On October 09 2010 04:13 Pandain wrote: Alright, I'll go over Infinitestory's posts too check out SINiquity as well, he's a pretty big blip on my radar right now | ||
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I'm really really really suspicious of SINiquity. If he doesn't adequately defend himself before this lynch I think he is a better candidate than Misder but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt for the time being. | ||
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On October 09 2010 07:49 BrownBear wrote: A disclaimer: Since it is Friday night, the night post might be a little late. I will not accept votes timestamped after the night ends, but I might be out blazed in the woods somewhere at midnight, so won't be able to write up the post. It will happen though, don't worry aw what about artanis? | ||
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On October 09 2010 08:04 kingjames01 wrote: We need to hold on a second here. First, a HUGE discrepancy in CynanMachae's play was found. There was less than 3 hours left in the vote and he was first in line to be lynched. His best play was to vote for Crisis_ and he didn't. HE WAS GOING TO GET LYNCHED AND DID NOT VOTE TO SAVE HIMSELF. Think about that. If you want to stay in the game, there's only one correct play. You vote for the other guy. The only way that this is understandable is if: A) He WANTS to be lynched. B) He KNOWS he's not going to be lynched. Let's examine his defence. CynanMachae's defence is that to claim mafia would not expend 4 votes to save one person so it can't be true. But what if the mafia thought they could save 2 of their own? CynanMachae and Crisis_? That's the difference between 2 Kills and 1 Kill a night... Doesn't this warrant more attention from us? Now, I'm going to go on the record and say that I don't think that CynanMachae is mafia. From his defence post, which I truncated, I think that he didn't realize how close he was to being lynched or the best play to save himself. I think he made a mistake but won't admit to it now. I'd like another explanation please. Did you REALLY gamble on your fate because you GUESSED that someone else would earn 6 more votes (one was repealed)? That seems too flimsy to let pass. Now, I want to make my real point. There's something really wrong about what's going on in the last few hours. It seems to me that there's a lot of posturing or manipulation going on in plain sight. XeliN and NukeTheBunnys are attacking each other and everyone else is staying silent. What are we hoping for? That one or both are mafia and might slip up? Pandain is applying pressure to CynanMachae to get him to open up. DoctorHelvetica weighs in and suggests infinitestory or SiNiquity. CynanMachae defends himself but not completely and then Pandain decides to back down and starts to look at infinitestory. DoctorHelvetica chimes in and says to look at SiNiquity. After Pandain takes a good look at infinitestory he concludes that there is not enough to go on and implies that the suggestion to investigate SiNiquity is a valid one but won't make the effort. Why is DoctorHelvetica calling the shots? What did I miss? Has DoctorHelvetica been confirmed as Blue? I may not be experienced but I feel as though we are being manipulated. He comes into the thread, makes some suggestions about other players and disappears letting others do the work. If he cares so much about finding proof against infinitestory or SiNiquity then why doesn't he do the work himself? Now he's gone and started a bandwagon against Misder. This is ludicrous. My suggestion is for the Detective to check him tonight. Unfortunatly, there's no way for the detective to reveal DoctorHelvetica's role without putting himself at risk. Without the ability to PM, we need to keep the Detective hidden. Has anyone ever played a game without PM's? How do we use the Detective? I've said I'll be doing deeper analysis later today. I actually have quite a bit to do today and I'm not prepared to make a big post yet. It's coming. | ||
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His first posts are useless and I won't quote them for the sake of saving space. They concern the issue of protactiniums smurf. He continues throughout the beginning posting a lot but making empty arguments others have already made. "Who is protacts smurf?" This amused me: On October 06 2010 11:13 SiNiquity wrote: I'm pretty sure lynching the village idiot means we all lose. I see no reason for mafia to play along. Oh really? We lose if we lynch the VI? Thanks for the input SiN. On October 06 2010 11:29 SiNiquity wrote: This presumes the Mafia is in a position to win - if they feel like they're losing, then it's the town's game to lose by following through with the lynch. Says the same thing. On October 06 2010 11:46 SiNiquity wrote: Once the VI is truly out in the open, we could argue that Mafia forfeits now or we lynch the the VI. My point is, by lynching the VI we -also- lose, so yes if the mafia is down then they have no reason to follow through with the kill, just as we have no reason to follow through with it. Granted I see no reason why the mafia wouldn't kill the VI just to get rid of him, but I don't agree that we would be in a position to blackmail them. Same obvious argument. Of course we can not lynch the Village Idiot. On October 06 2010 11:48 SiNiquity wrote: I called him out to reveal himself, he didn't. If he wants to take his identity to the grave then that's his decision. Worthless post about protacts smurf On October 06 2010 12:04 SiNiquity wrote: 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain. 7. If you miss a vote or fail to post during one day cycle, you will be modkilled. Not voting: bumatlarge, kane]deth[, Infundi, Crisis_, Happy.fairytail Not posted nor voted: XeliN, JeeJee Under the current rules we're looking at 7 mod kills. Hope some of those are mafia :\ Backseat modding, no reason to post this whatsoever. On October 06 2010 12:05 SiNiquity wrote: EBWOP: Credit (or blame if it's wrong) to BrownBear for that list, I simply pulled it from the vote thread. Admits himself that it's not even his list, he just copy pasted it. Big waste of space. So far he has a lot of posts and ZERO content. On October 06 2010 12:15 SiNiquity wrote: [/url][url="http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=157921¤tpage=2"]Go vote for someone. link to the voting thread, very helpful more backseat modding. so far has added zero content or thought to this game On October 06 2010 13:00 SiNiquity wrote: I getcha, heh. Also, Prot's headed to the gallows (bum just chimed in). Sorry buddy ~ could've thwarted this whole mess if you'd have fessed up. worthless post starting on page 22 he spams relentlessly, except this post stands out to me On October 06 2010 13:58 SiNiquity wrote: No I agree. Except then at least I'd have a chance at a mafia role I'm always town-aligned, gets old after awhile. What is the point of this? It's obvious at this point that BB wasn't going to end a game. This is a convenient time for mafia to come out and say "oh but I hate my role as (town role), let's restart". Not overtly suspicious but this is when he became a blip on my radar as "possible red" instead of just "awful and useless town player" now ALL THE WAY from page 22 to 39 he spams one-liners with NO information. Look at his post history in his profile. It's ridiculous. he goes out of his way to confirm himself as town during twilight and then just continues spamming the thread. word. Here is his first "big and useful" post. Which was utterly useless. Let's look at it (I'll be posting my thoughts inside the quote in red) On October 08 2010 12:15 SiNiquity wrote: Disclaimer: This post is does not in any way encourage additional posting of PM or PM related information, nor do I wish to further the discussion of the PMs themselves. This post contains full disclosure of BM's method to further discourage any claiming. However, the prior claims are here to stay, for better or for worse. There's nothing that can be done, yet they've altered the meta game and as such cannot be ignored. he claims he doesn't want to encourage durther discussion of the PM's but yet his entire post is centered around discussing EXACTLY that. Alternatively a host could simply come out and confirm that the PM messages were different dependent on host, alleviating us of this meta-game aspect entirely. But if not, then the information's there, and should be taken full advantage of by the townies. It had already been confirmed some pms were sent by artanis and that they were worded differently. Now, in short, for those that don't feel like reading the spam starting from page 29 and going really until about page 35, Bill Murray demanded players to roleclaim, but emphasized players should carefully reread their PMs before claiming. It was actually very clever, as there was an underlying secret that only town players would recognize: town players were not PM'ed the word "town" but rather "townie" as their role. XeliN sums this up nicely: complains about spam despite being a terrible spammer himself. BM's plan was clever despite the fact that it was totally useless because not every role PM was worded the same way. SiNiquity either doesn't know this or is feigning ignorance. Ironically, Bill, either in a burst of genius or insanity, incessantly insisted the correct answer was "town." And, best of yet, some people fell for it: (Note: BC is especially guilty in this regard, as he kept referring to the town post in the OP as his point of reference). In fact the only player that correctly roleclaimed as far as I can surmise is OpZ: Even now Bill maintains "town" is the correct answer, and his vigilance for this charade is admirable yet simultaneously disturbing on some deeper level. However, props to him for maintaining it for so long (I'd certainly be convinced). bill maintained town was the correct answer because that's the PM he received. people received different PM's so none of what you just said matters in the slightest bit. there was no trap. Now there is the caveat that there were different wording in the PMs based on the host. do you even realize this sentence makes your ENTIRE post fall apart? As such, take the following conclusions with a grain of salt: I will Confirmed players from my perspective:
Suspect players from my perspective:
you agree with BM's methods and come out with compeltely different conclusions. there are two scenarios that makes this possible. one is that you are dumb and did not understand what BM was saying. you say earlier in the thread that bill murray maintained "town" as the correct answer when it was indeed townie. how did you know this was BM's intention? He never claimed it was. This means you were communicating with BM via PM (which is a rule violation), or because you are both mafia. Or you recieved a role PM that said townie which just goes to prove that the role pms are different. Still need to look at the votes over the past day to see if there's anything worthwhile there. But I'm certainly curious as to what one of the "town" players will flip ~ if town, then there's possibly a host discrepancy. If not, then this only confirms my suspicions. It's the strongest lead we've got and I see no reason not to pursue it. Anyway I'm off to bed to mull this over. Even though he interpreted BM's argument THE OPPOSITE of how BM interpreted it. He still accused bloodycobbler. It seems strange to me that there is nothing in common between their conclusions other than the fact that they both painted BC red (bill murray and SiNiquity) what did we learn from this post? 1. there is a big possibility BM and SiN have communicated out of game 2. despite interpreting BM's argument very differently SiN still accused bloodycobbler and insisted BM is 100% town. After two more useless posts SiN posts this On October 09 2010 12:17 SiNiquity wrote: That's terrible. If BM's not mafia, there's no guarantee that Mafia won't gamble that he's not a VI and we waste our double lynch. I also don't believe there's more than 1 VI (protact), but that's just a hunch on my part. Look, now that I understand BM's plan, I agree it was utterly and ridiculously stupid (seriously - "Hey guys I'm town, so what are you, town/townie, oh and btw if you're blue answer 'town' since that's the super-secret right answer, but otherwise tell me are you town/townie" Gee I wonder what -mafia- would respond with?). From my perspective (i.e. OpZ's), I thought it was all a clever trap.. too clever for BM though, and I should've realized that. But even as bad as his version was, I think it's a stretch to suggest a non-town player would initiate such action relying on some "correct" wording of town PMs which, if wrong, would mean his doom (as it turns out, there was more than one "correct" wording so either way he was right, but he couldn't have known that). So in short, no, I don't think we should double lynch just to lynch BM, and I'm not convinced we're going to have enough information tomorrow to justify using one of our (two) double lynches. Also james is correct ~ I've only voted for double lynch so far (and now unvoted). Still weeding through the thread to find my vote candidate. What is this post about? Protecting BM and explaining his late vote. Mafia like to vote late so that they make sure to have the least conspicous vote possible. He says "I understand BM's plan" yet in his previous post he interpreted CLEARLY in the exact opposite way BM did. If that is the case there is no way he understood what BM was doing unless they communicated or unless SiN has really really bad reading comprehension. On October 09 2010 12:47 SiNiquity wrote: I don't think either Misder or XeliN are mafia, and if my tired count is correct they're the current big leaders in the vote. Would you like to explain? Misder didn't end up being mafia, just a bad townie. But why even say this if you aren't going to provie a reason? Not only does he not back up his defense but he doesn't propose an alternative. He isn't scumhunting which is what town should be doing. Lynching mafia. If SiNiquity is mafia, Bill Murray definitely is. SiNiquity you have some explaining to do. How did you "know" BM was using the word "town" to trick people and was actually looking for the word "townie". How did you understand BM's argument yet come to different conclusions? Why the spam? The nonsense one-liners? | ||
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On October 10 2010 10:45 SouthRawrea wrote: Just because I'm not allowed to PM, I'd like to express my wish to PM Pandain expressedly. PANDAIN I WANT TO PM YOU. Just a suggestion: Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods might be a good idea. People who voted for lynching Misder in order of best reasons: Pandain - Pretty well done analysis on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38 ~OpZ~ -For the unexplained vote Misder put on ~OpZ~ infinitestory - Actually makes a post explaining why he though Misder was suspicious though I can't see why he'd vote for him in particular because he had plenty of other suspects at the time. DoctorHelvetica - No good reason. He was tunneling Siniquity the entire time and gave no real reason for Misder. LSB - He basically goes to pandain "who know you might be right" and votes Misder... drag_ - Absolutely nothing. A total of 10 posts. There almost seem to be 12 posts but 2 of those are from a link of siniquity's This was just me scanning over the posts and making it public who I'm going to examine. I would start with drag_ but because he has so little posts I thinking I'll examine him and LSB (as JeeJee didn't make a single post). Most likely within the same day I will go over DoctorHelvetica and/or Xelin because this particular post caught my eye. It just seems like a post that could be reduced to under 10 words and has no explanation within it and only an elongated 1 point opinion. I know I've been guilty of this to some degree except without just providing opinion. However it seems like major "slipping under the radar" to me. In case of my death tonight Suspects: Xelin, DrHelvetica, BloodC0bbler and at least 2 of the newer players including KingJames, drag_ and infinitestory. Are you kidding? I've been suspicious of misder since day 1 because of his posting habits and I explained multiple times why I suspected him. In fact one of my first posts come day 2 was my reasoning. 1. Multiple accusatory posts with no backing support (typical of mafia trying to confuse the town) 2. painting himself extremely pro-town, even going out and criticizing other players guilty of the same posting habits of himself 3. mostly inactive until there is a ton of pressure on him 4. claims to have a lot of suspects without ever revealing it. only reveals his thoughts when under heavy pressure No I didn't do a huge post like Pandain, that doesn't mean I never explained my reasoning lol. The reason I didn't switch my vote to SiNiquity was for two reasons. 1. it would be pointless considering the size of the misder/xelin bandwagons 2. I hadn't yet combed through all of his posts | ||
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On October 10 2010 10:53 SouthRawrea wrote: :D I'm glad you could consolidate your posts. No hard feelings? I actually think I screwed the ctrl+f thing that one time while searching. It began the search part way through. Sorry about that. It wasa genuine mistake. I was going back through what I searched through just to make sure everything was right and yeah you did express suspicion. I'm in no way clearing you though . No hard feelings of course. If you want to view all of someones posts you can simply go to their profile. | ||
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On October 10 2010 11:41 infinitestory wrote: osht Pandain knew he was going to die? I want to say "perhaps he got something right in his final suspect list?" but I'm really afraid the mafia have thought this out on an extra level, in a reverse-psychology way this sort of thinking is wifom. there are infinite layers of potential reverse psychology and analysing it is a waste of time | ||
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On October 10 2010 11:46 infinitestory wrote: yeah, I guess it is a waste what does wifom mean? wine in front of me it's from the scene in the princess bride when the dude is trying to guess which goblet has poison based on a neverending loop of reverse psychology tricks | ||
DoctorHelvetica
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On October 10 2010 11:59 SiNiquity wrote: (a) (paraphrased) "haha lynching VI is bad for town, you're so dumb siniquity, we all know that" no, infinitestory or whoever was saying we should hold the mafia hostage with the VI, and I was pointing out that was a stupid idea over and over again. I'm absolutely thrilled that you've somehow taken that and twisted it into making me look like a moron. I hope the rest of your post isn't like this. (b) "worthless post about protacts smurf" smurfing hurts town. Lynching hurts smurf. I thought putting more pressure on protact would get him to fess up. If you were smart you'd have seen that I threatened him, he ignored me and just kept posting, and then I voted to put him in the lead and tried to keep the pressure on him, but he didn't budge. Yet you think posting "10 minutes left" with protact having a single vote lead, one of them being me, and protact actively posting, is worthless. Ironically, the fact that he did nothing was the biggest tell that he was VI: (c) SiNiquity: "[BB: let's continue.. why bother restarting?] No I agree. Except then at least I'd have a chance at a mafia role I'm always town-aligned, gets old after awhile." Why say this? Because I'm always town aligned and it gets old after awhile, which is why I was perfectly content with protact being VI and rerolling (d) "now ALL THE WAY from page 22 to 39 he spams one-liners with NO information" you sir are a dirty little liar. I didn't post after page 25 until page 39. Not that this mischaracterization is out of line with anything else you've said. You're just as bad as BC in the last game I played when he analyzed me. Yeah I spammed a bit on 22-25 when nothing important was going on, during twilight and immediately after protact was pronounced VI. Sue me. Points (e) through (l) are referencing my large post on page 39 (e) "he claims he doesn't want to encourage durther discussion of the PM's but yet his entire post is centered around discussing EXACTLY that." I didn't want people to discuss to reveal additional PM knowledge as that was clearly banned, but wanted to reference the claims people had already made, as I thought we had some actual concrete evidence to work from, and ignoring that would be stupid. Hence the disclaimer. (f) "It had already been confirmed some pms were sent by artanis and that they were worded differently." Up until that point, there was no confirmation of different wording in the PMs. There was however confirmation that multiple hosts PMed people. Silly me for thinking anyone in this thread would need such a distinction pointed out. Oh wait, I did. In the point you're rebutting. + Show Spoiler [Blue posts from pg 33 to my pg 39] + On October 07 2010 15:22 BrownBear wrote: I just logged in and saw this. What the fuck. BM... stop. On October 07 2010 15:28 BrownBear wrote: BM, the next time I see this level of spam, it's a modkill. You've taken up like 60% of the last 3 pages BY YOURSELF. ffs stop spamming, or at least consolidate it all into one post. On October 08 2010 00:53 BrownBear wrote: Let's pleast stop talking about the PMs. It's a slippery slope, and as you all know, quoting all or part of them is illegal. Get back to scumhunting based off of analysis, not stupid PM-based shit. On October 08 2010 05:41 BrownBear wrote: It really pisses me off that role PMs are STILL being discussed here. Since this seems to be a sticky point, and since some people know this and others don't, I'll clarify it for everyone here. Both Artanis and I sent out role PMs, to make our workload easier. We had no clue it would be so much of a federal fucking issue when we did so. Now STOP TALKING ABOUT IT AS THOUGH IT'S A PART OF THE GAME. On October 08 2010 06:10 BrownBear wrote: RoL has very kindly given kane]deth[ back his role. kane will continue the game on double super-secret probation: if he gets modkilled for missing another vote, I will be very sad (g) "complains about spam despite being a terrible spammer himself." Yes, let's take an outright lie from point (d) and use it to draw a conclusion. (h) "BM's plan was clever despite the fact that it was totally useless because not every role PM was worded the same way. SiNiquity either doesn't know this or is feigning ignorance" See point (f). (i) bill maintained town was the correct answer because that's the PM he received. people received different PM's so none of what you just said matters in the slightest bit. there was no trap. See point (f). (j) (In reference to: caveat ~ PM wording may have been different) do you even realize this sentence makes your ENTIRE post fall apart? Yes which is why I put it both at the top and bottom of my post. Because it was that important. (k) (In reference to: "Take the following with a grain of salt") oh i will: Oh you're a clever one. (l) you agree with BM's methods and come out with compeltely different conclusions. there are two scenarios that makes this possible.
Or I received a role PM that said townie which meant BM was parading town as the correct answer to catch other people. But that would depend on the PM wording being the same huh. I wonder if I should, idk, make a disclaimer about that? The next post you quote even elaborates on this, but naturally you ignore that. (m) What is this post about? Protecting BM and explaining his late vote. Mafia like to vote late so that they make sure to have the least conspicous vote possible. ~ Taking this in turn
(n) He says "I understand BM's plan" yet in his previous post he interpreted CLEARLY in the exact opposite way BM did. Seriously, this is getting old. Thank God I'm almost done with this. Read your paraphrase, read the quote in point (l) and honestly tell me if they're the same. If English is your 2nd language, I forgive you. (o) If that is the case there is no way he understood what BM was doing unless they communicated or unless SiN has really really bad reading comprehension. The irony of your words is seeping from my monitor. If <false paraphrase> is true, then <draw conclusion> unless <conclusion #1 out of 2 from (l) is true> or <completely unrelated yet highly ironic possibility is true> (p) (Referring to me thinking Misder/XeliN are not mafia) Would you like to explain? Misder didn't end up being mafia, just a bad townie. Yeah it was totally Misder's fault for getting lynched. Stupid bad townie (q) (Continuing from prev. point) But why even say this if you aren't going to provie a reason? Not only does he not back up his defense but he doesn't propose an alternative. He isn't scumhunting which is what town should be doing. Lynching mafia. His late posts convinced me he wasn't scum which is why I didn't vote for him - I'm sorry that this wasn't obvious based on the fact that I posted that right after Misder posted. I don't think XeliN is mafia because he was the first to articulate BM's tactics, which I already stated in my "long analysis post." But you read that and picked it apart already, so you'd know this, right? As for why I didn't make a case for someone else, all of this was 15 minutes or something like that before the lynch, so no, I didn't make a case for someone else, because there wasn't enough time. [Summary]: (a) misrepresentation (b) stupid (c) (d) lies (e) misunderstanding (f) lies (g) conclusion from lies (h) unsubstantiated claim (i) unsubstantiated claim (j) (k) clever jab (l) incomplete analysis due to conclusion from unsubstantiated claim (m) misrepresentation (n) misrepresentation (o) misrepresentation / stupid (p) (q) misrepresentation / I don't even know. Stupidly high expectations? If your role PM said townie than what you said makes sense. If you're admitting to that then a lot of what you said makes sense under that light. Obviously you didn't say that so I hope you can see how the conclusion that you and bill murray had communicated out of game could be drawn? you could be very well lying but your defense is satisfying to me. I'm not saying you're definitely mafia but pressure needed to be applied to you to clear that up, is that ok with you? you seem personally very offended | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
misder accused with nothing behind it, that's bad play and it got him lynched. he didn't apply pressure to anyone. if we want to catch mafia we need to put people on the hot seat, that's really the only way. people crack under pressure. mafia are extra defensive and because they feel subconsciously guilty will defend themselves in a much different way than a townie will. keep in mind we're double lynching tonight, if we don't catch mafia the effects will be disastrous for us | ||
DoctorHelvetica
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On October 10 2010 12:01 Crisis_ wrote: Pandain's out, and he was the one who led the analysis against Misder, who was also a townie. I think Mafia's trying to kill off people who are not only inconsequential (can't be traced back to mafia), but also players who can analyze posts like Pandain. I think some of us are looking in the wrong direction right now in terms of leads, and we should really focus on those who we are NOT focusing on, if that makes any sense. And as such, my suspicions on CynanMachae, ghrur, and BM are lowered, at least until I get some more information. WIFOM maybe mafia are killing people who can't be traced back to us, or maybe they know we will think that so they are killing people who were on their trail, but maybe they're doing the opposite, or maybe they're doing the opposite of the opposite that doesn't really help us in determine who mafia is unless there is a clear pattern (hitting people who roleclaim, hitting people who are accused of having a blue role, hitting people who vote a certain way, etc.) | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 10 2010 12:36 SiNiquity wrote: No I never said (and note that I -still- have not said) what my role is directly because BrownBear explicitly said to stop discussing PMs, and me saying "hey my PM said ________ and was from _______" would be violating this, as well as the disclaimer of my own post (the one from page 39, the long analysis one). I did however allude to it as heavily as I could: Smiley face by Opz when saying who I thought was likely town, saying this was all from "MY" perspective, then clarifying in a later post that "MY" perspective was the same as OpZ's perspective. I can see how the conclusion could be drawn, but you also mentioned another possibility (namely the real one) but completely dismissed it and used the other one to draw conclusions. That's just dishonest. lol offended? No. I'm only offended that we're making crucial decisions on analysis like that. If you are alluding to the fact that my retorts were pointed and often critical of your analysis, then sure. I didn't dismiss it. If that is indeed the case then I understand why you interpreted Bill Murray's arguments the way you did. Otherwise the only explanation is that you communicated with Bill Murray outside of the game. I'm not saying one is true and that you're mafia. I'm saying that one of those MUST be true. It deserves focus because of that possibility. I really don't see any other way you could have come to the conclusions you did about BM other than that. Crucial decisions? What decision did I make here exactly other than the decision to put pressure. Mind you that's exactly what we as a town need to be doing. Pressuring people. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 10 2010 13:19 SiNiquity wrote: I never said you made any decisions ~ I'm only saying that every night's lynch is based on stuff like that, and if it's inaccurate or incomplete then you're doing everyone a disservice, because they're probably not going to take the time to so thoroughly analyze your analysis. I understand the point you were driving at now, but much of your post contained inaccuracies (i.e. me spamming for 17 pages vs 3, and it's not nearly as bad as you allege), misquotes (taking "Look, now that I understand BM" as "I understand BM"), bad summaries ("siniquity saying stupid things about lynching VI, no shit"), etc. That's just off the top of my head, the rest is in my post. Ironically I'm setting the bar ridiculously high for myself now when it comes to analyzing anyone You didn't say "now that I understand BM", but rather "I understand BM". I looked at each of your posts rather than reading the entire thread so some context was lost but I put the pressure on you that I wanted and I'm satisfied with your response. I hardly suspect you OR bill murray either now. I fear the mafia is going to try to twist the double lynch as a free kill on bill murray and someone tenuously connected to him. However I could not ignore the prevalent possibility that you had communicated with BM outside of the game, I hope you can at least appreciate why that couldn't and shouldn't have been ignored. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 10 2010 14:11 SiNiquity wrote: k? Now let's move on. On October 09 2010 11:48 SiNiquity wrote: Wait. So we're double lynching just to lynch BM "for free" tomorrow? That's why I voted for double lynch. See this post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=37#733[/QUOTE] That's terrible. If BM's not mafia, there's no guarantee that Mafia won't gamble that he's not a VI and we waste our double lynch. I also don't believe there's more than 1 VI (protact), but that's just a hunch on my part. Look, now that I understand BM's plan, I agree it was utterly and ridiculously stupid (seriously - "Hey guys I'm town, so what are you, town/townie, oh and btw if you're blue answer 'town' since that's the super-secret right answer, but otherwise tell me are you town/townie" Gee I wonder what -mafia- would respond with?). From my perspective (i.e. OpZ's), I thought it was all a clever trap.. too clever for BM though, and I should've realized that. But even as bad as his version was, I think it's a stretch to suggest a non-town player would initiate such action relying on some "correct" wording of town PMs which, if wrong, would mean his doom (as it turns out, there was more than one "correct" wording so either way he was right, but he couldn't have known that). So in short, no, I don't think we should double lynch just to lynch BM, and I'm not convinced we're going to have enough information tomorrow to justify using one of our (two) double lynches. Also james is correct ~ I've only voted for double lynch so far (and now unvoted). Still weeding through the thread to find my vote candidate. [/QUOTE] you are correct. i was remembering things in a biased and ugly light and I apologize. I've already said I'm satisfied to your defense so I would like to move on as much as you would. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 10 2010 14:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote: That's why I voted for double lynch. See this post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=37#733 That's terrible. If BM's not mafia, there's no guarantee that Mafia won't gamble that he's not a VI and we waste our double lynch. I also don't believe there's more than 1 VI (protact), but that's just a hunch on my part. Look, now that I understand BM's plan, I agree it was utterly and ridiculously stupid (seriously - "Hey guys I'm town, so what are you, town/townie, oh and btw if you're blue answer 'town' since that's the super-secret right answer, but otherwise tell me are you town/townie" Gee I wonder what -mafia- would respond with?). From my perspective (i.e. OpZ's), I thought it was all a clever trap.. too clever for BM though, and I should've realized that. But even as bad as his version was, I think it's a stretch to suggest a non-town player would initiate such action relying on some "correct" wording of town PMs which, if wrong, would mean his doom (as it turns out, there was more than one "correct" wording so either way he was right, but he couldn't have known that). So in short, no, I don't think we should double lynch just to lynch BM, and I'm not convinced we're going to have enough information tomorrow to justify using one of our (two) double lynches. Also james is correct ~ I've only voted for double lynch so far (and now unvoted). Still weeding through the thread to find my vote candidate. EBWODP (poor formatting) you are correct. i was remembering things in a biased and ugly light and I apologize. I've already said I'm satisfied to your defense so I would like to move on as much as you would. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 11 2010 04:52 kane]deth[ wrote: I must say, you're entire analysis is bullshit; you're assuming that new players instantly take risks and because in the first few posts I have in mafia aren't decisive and inspired, that I am anti-town. I must say that there is truth though, I haven't contributed anything yet, but I promise I will by monday night. Of course you could say I'm delaying because I'm mafia but it IS thanksgiving over here and all. @LSB I'm role-claiming town, but even if I was mafia I would say that :V About my voting, I changed it because I was thinking XeliN in my mind but I typed Misder for some reason. Misder did seem to be angry and such but I thought that was just a good tactic to get others feeling pressured. Xelin seemed to be weak and uninspired, sort of like how you're accusing me to be. If I did have a choice to abstain, I would, but then I'd get modkilled, so I thought that instead of voting off a player I could simply double-lynch and collect my thoughts, but I didn't know that you still had a lynch. it would be nice if you contributed something to this game besides a lame defense to all the pressure being put on you so now you're out until tomorrow night? when the day is over? lol kk | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 11 2010 07:27 Bill Murray wrote: What's the case on kane]deth[? Why are you voting him DoctorH? If I've missed something that has happened, sorry, I haven't gotten a chance to read some of it yet doesn't post never contributes only posts when accused bad job of defending self constant excuses for inactivity when RoL took his role he also made excuses for inactivity already made an excuse to be active for our third (and probably our most important) day cycle it was said earlier that it is very likely some mafia are hiding amongst inactives, kane]deth[s stand out to me as the most scummy and is worthy of my second vote, at least for now | ||
DoctorHelvetica
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DoctorHelvetica
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On October 13 2010 04:50 SouthRawrea wrote: Amber I honestly made that vote a retaliatory vote simply because you were saying that you'd vote me at the end. I'd like to make it clear that I maintain my analysis on drag_ and unless he's dead tonight, I want him dead tomorrow morning. (Also I'm guilty of being biased this game. I have a liking towards BC so I ended up ignoring an urge to attack him part way through the game. I'm typing this out because making it public will probably help solve the problem. First step= admitting I have a problem. I have a problem although it's minor.) Really? An OMGUS. I'm more surprised you'd admit to voting like that than anything. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Vigilante, if you exist, don't hit Bill Murray. Find a more inactive player who may have been accused in the past but has since been laying kind of low. CynanMachae is a good target, SouthRawrea screams scum to me. It might be a bit of a crapshoot but we need to hit a red and learn something, start drawing up some connections, because honestly we have nothing right now. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
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On October 14 2010 17:04 Protactinium wrote: I'm pretty sure somewhere down the line hosts/people agreed to only have one normal game running at a time... i thought sign ups would take a week and this game would be done by then | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 14 2010 21:05 meeple wrote: Just threw my vote on the doctor for now... I'll try to make an informed decision later on -sloppy placeholder vote -excuse for future inactivity you've been contributing less and less to this game as time goes on. i know you're busy cohosting my game but not as busy as me. you've been slipping by pretty inactive for the entirety of this game but never really done enough to draw suspicion to you. I have a feeling mafia have been hiding amongst inactive players for a while. The town has clearly been on the wrong track with its accusations. Why should the mafia take the risk of staying active in the town? Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know WIFOM. But this game and us winning it depends on being able to predict and discern what the mafia is thinking and why. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
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On October 15 2010 06:46 ghrur wrote: Despite this hotbed of activity (sarcasm), my suspicions are still on the same people. Crisis_ and SR. Really though, we honestly need more activity. We can't get ANYWHERE if we just have no one posting. There are no developments. On the otherhand, I don't want to make random accusations just to pressure people and cause chaos. =/ I guess I'll just inspect the recent posts more carefully later. If nothing comes about, I'll probably stick with Crisis for my earlier reasons. Same. Haunted Mafia is finally getting into the swing of things so I feel I have more time. SouthRawrea you need to defend yourself. You barely got out of yesterdays lynch (help from mafia buddies?) and you come out with an OMGUS defense and a bad excuse for inactivity. If we don't lynch you, who should we lynch? | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 15 2010 08:57 SouthRawrea wrote: He's trying to manipulate information. This is precisely why I brought up the possibility of this happening early in the game. If I am to be lynched today, I suppose it is my fault for being inactive for some parts of the game but please enlighten me as to how my play has been worse? I see alot of people placing their not-so-good reasons. As for a defense, the only person that came up with a formulated accusation was Kingjames and I've more than defended myself adequately. The people that voted me that day had failed to respond to my recent actions. Ghrur for example completely overlooks my defense and proceeds by calling Kingjames01's analysis beautiful and fails to notice my gigantique analysis on drag_ which also fulfilled my earlier promise. Alot of the current votes on me are remnants of votes that should have been quelled yesterday but are still there. Some might be there in questioning of my list of people that I made and others might be there simply because they don't want to believe that the defense that I wrote up is good enough. So be it. Just know that at this point in this day that there are no proper accusations on me and that you should rethink your votes and the situation that I am in. Just know that it was not me vs Amberlight and Xelin yesterday. Rather I was pitted up against them against my will. Is there really still a big case on me? I think not. The town is too disjointed right now. We're just jumping from target to target (probably decided by mafia) without putting real pressure on anybody. I'm not completely satisfied with your defense but what ~OpZ~ is saying to me doesn't make much sense. 2 people died tonight so therefore you are town? Tell me how that makes sense. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
We need to hear more from: drag_ crisis cynanmachae kane]deth[ infinitestory meeple ghrur All of you have been inactive in this game pretty much since the beginning and have all been accused at some point or another. This is a list of our top priorities for a lynch. I think we have a much better chance hitting a mafia amongst the inactives at this point then we do on big targets like OpZ or BloodyC0bbler. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 15 2010 11:20 SiNiquity wrote: NukeTheBunny has not posted anything. Since page 44. On October 9th. 6 days. The problem is who among the inactives are townies who simply gave up versus actual mafia. I was never convinced that NukeTheBunnys was scum in the first place and he would be my last choice among the inactives. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
perfect victory :3 | ||
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