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This is what I found on Meeple while sifting through the thread last night.
In short, he's been moderately active but hasn't really said a whole lot. Ultimately gets boiled down into the following 4 categories:
- + Show Spoiler [Lynch Inactives] +
On October 02 2010 14:25 meeple wrote:
Yeah ten minutes a day isn't really playing mafia... you're just doing the bare minimum not to get banned. What's the fun in that? On October 05 2010 08:07 meeple wrote:
a) Mafia statistically hide more amongst the inactives than amongst the active, its not just about non-blues.
b) An inactive lynch has the dual purpose of encouraging both mafia and town to post more. If someone's town then hopefully they'll contribute to productive discussion, but if they're red it leaves a big trail for someone to analyze. The chances of getting village idiot isn't equal to hitting red because there's much more reds than idiots.
On October 06 2010 05:47 meeple wrote:
Random lynching is almost never good... read my previous post about how voting inactive is far superior...
- + Show Spoiler [Suspicious of Pandain / CynanMachae] +
On October 06 2010 05:40 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 05:27 Pandain wrote:
I don't count Cynan as inactive and Nobody should vote for him because his actions thus far are in accordance with his previous play. That's not to say I'm not watching him(I am) but he's not that suspicious to me.
Whoa whoa... weird defense of cynan... the votes against him were just to bump him back into posting... which he did, so those should eventually fade away to other, more suitable targets. However, he's definitely not in enough danger for another townie to worry about him getting the chop. This makes a lot more sense if you're an anxious red protecting your buddy... On October 06 2010 05:47 meeple wrote:
Past that... I'm going for cynanmachae because I got a lot of funny twinges from reading Pandains post. Besides the possible red link, where if Cynanmachae turns up red, Pandain should also... if Pandain turns out to be green, it "might" say good things about Pandain, since the likelihood of scum sticking up for a green in those circumstances is pretty small... On October 08 2010 05:19 meeple wrote:
BM the problem with you spamming is that you'll never be taken seriously... I have no idea why anyone followed your bs Protact vote... There's 25 people in this game and your posting constitutes a full 1/6 of all the replies in this thread... I hope to god you see a problem with this... especially since most of those replies are like quadruple posts...
If you're so certain of BC, why would you want dts to check him before we lynch? That makes so little sense... stop the shit and do some real analysis... not this stuff about Role PMs
As for me... I see nothing but arguing about shit-all and my eyes are weary. I wasn't completely satisfied with Pandain reasoning for sticking up for Cynan... especially with Cynan's vote for him later... possibly to distance themselves from each other...
- + Show Spoiler [Raises concerns of Protactinium vote] +
On October 06 2010 10:58 meeple wrote:
... lots of sudden votes for protactinium... I mean... smurfing isn't that annoying is it?
What's the deal with infinitestory's no-post vote... get in here man! On October 06 2010 11:01 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 10:54 SiNiquity wrote:
so protactinium, who are you? You're tied for the lead to be killed. I really don't know who he is... and it shouldn't matter... but if you look through his posts... it smacks of someone like flamewheel
- + Show Spoiler [Misc] +
On October 07 2010 09:54 meeple wrote:By this you imply? Show nested quote +
Pandian is writing weird stories again. That probably means he's Red or Blue
Dunno why you say this, other than blue/red excitement about a game... Show nested quote +
As for the Newcomers, I haven't read much, but it should be pretty easy to tell if one of them is Green. Are any of them superactive?
infinitestory has been active... but he's also been pretty illogical at times... Show nested quote +Lastly, Someone go Protect/Investigate Xelin. Brownbear just told us straight out that he's Red or Blue Despite what it may seem I doubt that a host would really make that mistake... that's a pretty big fuck up... On October 07 2010 15:25 meeple wrote:
This is pretty ridiculous... BM stop shitting up the thread
@drag_ I don't think he can be VI since shouldn't there be only one per game? Besides BB made it clear that if you spam to get killed as VI, he's just gonna modkill you.
To be honest, it should happen anyways... I don't know why it hasn't happened before... he usually spams the fuck out of the thread to piss people off and people end up ignoring him or lynching him right away to get rid of the annoying bastard. On October 07 2010 15:27 meeple wrote:
Ah edit... probably doesn't mean that there's only one VI per game... I misinterpreted... On October 08 2010 05:23 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 05:20 Bill Murray wrote:
I am certain of BC, but noone will fucking lynch him. That is why I'm asking DTs to check. If he comes back as "town", he is the godfather. If he is blue, he is possibly legit. No one will listen because you're blabbering like a fool... the tactic of "I'm loud and obnoxious so listen to me" works in preschool, but not in mafia man On October 09 2010 13:31 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 13:18 Protactinium wrote:
Hrm would anybody be averse to me just flipping Misder? It'll save some time for anybody waiting. Jesus, you're dead... don't backseat mod. This is BrownBear's game...
Annd that's it. All of his posts. Could be blue skating by, could just have a lot of shit going on. I'd like to hear more.
I'm also suspicious of the fact that CynanMachae is still alive, primarily because it sounded like he soft-claimed blue, Pandain even called him out on it, and he never really refuted it. Surely the Mafia didn't miss this ~ yet they haven't hit a blue yet. It could be they're not blue hunting and are instead simply targeting more experienced players (Bum, Infund, Pandain + whoever they poisoned). He also hasn't been terribly active (got put off by BM spamming which is understandable).
Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o
On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night.
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On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o
err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know.
Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily!
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I was going to look at DrH, but I'll eat my shoe if he is mafia.
-_-
I mean I'm 69.9% sure he is town. He hasn't been attacking regulars, and vets like he does when he is mafia....
Although he is playing hella nice nice with everyone.
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On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily!
Well someone out there knows I'm a town member, sheesh.
I'm seriously waiting on BC. I want to see some multiparty analysis from him. Til then I'm going to vote for him. His argument with Bill was pretty...Well I was in it too....So I can't say much. But Bill did point out a good point with that about Happy.
I was just waiting for more from BC...and I haven't gotten much more.
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On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily!
Sorry, should have included the word "allegedly." Agreed, it's possible. And actually regarding this: The narration usually has some indication how the player was killed (normally it doesn't matter since it's just a mafia hit). However, are players that are poisoned in this game indicated as such, or are they just "killed" like everyone else?
Also, I'm near certain of OpZ's innocence, only because it seems highly unlikely that he would come out and counter-claim everyone's PM claiming, and be in alignment with mine.
This also fits with my theory that the Mafia's not actually blue hunting, but rather hunting experienced players. Hmm. Opz (allegedly), Bum, Infund, Pandain.
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United States4053 Posts
On October 10 2010 14:37 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily! Well someone out there knows I'm a town member, sheesh. I'm seriously waiting on BC. I want to see some multiparty analysis from him. Til then I'm going to vote for him. His argument with Bill was pretty...Well I was in it too....So I can't say much. But Bill did point out a good point with that about Happy. I was just waiting for more from BC...and I haven't gotten much more.
When I posted my analysis of BC, I was semi-suspecting him, but the fact that he's been silent for a while is making me want to see his response even more.
I, like Divinek, also think you've been non-scummy this game.
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remember everyone gets two votes today
and does no one care about kane -_-
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On October 10 2010 13:41 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 12:40 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Crucial decisions? What decision did I make here exactly other than the decision to put pressure. Mind you that's exactly what we as a town need to be doing. Pressuring people. In the name of DrH, I will put some pressure on BloodyC0bbler, who was my #1 suspect before Misder tripped my radar (falsely, and for that I'm sorry D: ) LONG POST INC I'll begin with Bill Murray's analysis of happy.fairytail, who used to occupy the slot that BloodyC0bbler now does. I disagree with his accusation of BC as "rolefishing," but I have to say he does make some good points against HFT. Show nested quote +On October 07 2010 13:35 Bill Murray wrote:Posts 234/235 by Happy.Fairytale were posts to fake being useful to the town Post 255 is him fishing for Detectives through number "analysis" Post 257 by Happy.Fairytale: Please read this On October 05 2010 23:19 Happy.fairytail wrote:
Yeah, I'm pretty concerned that we could potentially have 8 mod deaths by the end of today. (Not worried about Bill Murray and Cynan, it seems they're around and will post in time) On October 06 2010 21:21 Happy.fairytail wrote:
shoot, I didn't vote last night ... worked all night yesterday and fell asleep with the lights on and everything. am I mod killed? =T (gonna read the last 12 pages of posts now) On October 06 2010 21:56 Happy.fairytail wrote:
noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
I had all this analysis done on this awesome spreadsheet, setting up profiles of every single person ... arghhhhhhhhhhhhfahsofuiaw8efu9anh7q23984nvpauilfjvo;uw3avn78o3nvr8oPA*OVRNA@NV These two things are nearly an open contradiction. "I haven't read 12 pages" followed immediately by 35 minutes and then "I had all this analysis done on this awesome spreadsheet". I'll now proceed to my own thoughts on BloodyC0bbler, and I'll naturally begin with his refutation of BC's analysis. Show nested quote +On October 07 2010 14:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Hell even your contradiction is laughable. He had how much actual time to do what he said he had done minus 12 hours. Creating a spreadsheet/worddoc with information is becoming common place, and insanely useful. You start it typically day 1, and add/alter information as the game progress'
This is a desperate attempt to save yourself, and your clinging at straws. I find that this defense is made of paper. BC manufactures his own evidence, claiming that "creating a spreadsheet is commonplace and insanely useful" right when it benefits him to say so. If it's so useful and commonplace, why did he not give that advice to the new players? (Remember, one of BC's first posts in the thread was advice to newbies) Also, I agree that reading 12 pages of posts is doable in 35 minutes (1 page/3 min), but I personally can't spot solid red flags in peoples' posts while reading at that speed, and HFT claimed to have done "analysis" and "profiles," which are quite in depth. Now we transition into the PM debacle. I won't go into BM's evidence using BC's town/townie response, because that was shot down by the hosts. I'll try to focus on BC's content posts, because he does have a large number of one-liners ridiculing BM. In fact, out of those accused by BM, I think BC reacted the most aggressively. Show nested quote +On October 07 2010 15:08 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On October 07 2010 15:05 Bill Murray wrote:
infinitestory, "town" are usually called "townies". They failed to realize this. They are mafia. I am town, you are town, DoctorH is town in all likelihood... because we all claimed "town". "Town" = Townies. The way it is worded is weird, and not normal. OpZ and BC not picking up on the way "Townie" is reworded as "Town" in this game proves they are mafia or blue. I am leaning towards mafia on BC, which is why I am voting for him. I could also use the word citizen, town, townies. IT doesnt matter. It all means the same thing. You know this as well as I do. With the way your behaving I seriously think your a green aiming to sabotage the game since you hate your role, a mafia doing what you do every game, or a VI. Regardless, anyone with a brain will realize your just aiming to convince the newer players who don't know better to off people who can stop you from ruining a game. Subtly talking as if he's a guardian of the people, which is a tone I personally find scummy; in some of these posts, he almost seems to be forcing himself to talk like a townie. Show nested quote +On October 07 2010 15:16 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On October 07 2010 15:13 Bill Murray wrote:
yeah but role pm is phrased town bro
bc doesnt realize that because hes red
you dont realize that because you are blue and should probably claim hatter with a bomb on a mafia
pick wisely, sir opz I am arguing that you are spamming a thread and not providing actual detail. I am also proving you wrong on multiple levels, thats because I am town and would like to win the game, thanks. I didn't see BC prove BM wrong on "multiple levels," or with legitimate evidence for that matter. In fact, BC posts several one liners that add no content himself. He also claims again that he is town, and I'm not sure why. Show nested quote +On October 07 2010 15:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
eh? there is a major difference between spamming a post to be ignored, and making 7 posts in a row that are one liners that offer no real substance -_-
Many of your posts in this thread were simply one-line back and forth with BM. Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 12:24 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I am however intrigued how you come out of complete inactivity, defend not only bm, but xelin as well. Are the mafia really playing so badly as to so obviously link together, or are the three of you combined just bad?
This is in response to SiNiquity. It is odd that SiN defends BM and XeliN, but BC still says it's "obvious" that the three are mafia AND linked together. He's already declared his opposition to BM, and his analysis of Xelin arrives later. I will note that while I combed BC's posts, I saw many more that added no content, giving some impression of posting but not really. Now for BC's lengthy analysis of XeliN, which I will counter-analyze. Spoilered because it is LONG + Show Spoiler +On October 08 2010 12:54 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Yay analysis time. I am leaving the obvious moron BM out of this as well, we all have determined he is retarded, so lets move on. First off I will be analyzing Xelin. I am opting to analyze him primarily because he stood out for his massive screw up by following BM. Now your going to ask, “but why xelin?” I will tell you why. I have been on a mafia team with xelin before. As such I know his play well enough at this point to know he’s not playing town. His general mafia style is sit back and wait, posting the bare minimum to stay off peoples radar’s and only appearing under a few situations. -Defend himself -Making random useless post to appear active -Jump on board ideas of his teammates, or people who are playing badly yet most people believe are town. Lets give you a brief summary of Xelin’s history this game. -Signed up -Didn’t post, nor vote day 1 -Came back with the excuse Show nested quote + *im abit drunk and jump posted because i had mod warnings. just saw the nights ended, but im sure the lynch is about as useful and thoughtout as any lynch at this stage is going to be (not at all) He openly admits he only posted due to mod warnings. Shows a complete disregard to the game and genuine lack of caring. He then reappears to defend himself against posts that insinuated he wasn’t modkilled because he had a role (this could be true or not). However the only real action to this lack of modkilling was he should be RC’d to verify his role. He then defended himself from being RC’d? He then drops back into inactive land until reappearing to support BM instantly and push the lynch of two of BM’s targets. Now, Xelin has worked with both myself and Opz in previous games, he knows that between the three of us every blue role in a game was coordinated into one unit and the mafia was quickly killed. Factor in his normal mafia playstyle this fits in perfectly. He keeps up his defense of BM’s strategy until he, much like bm, had the logic shot down by the town. Now backed into a corner he responds with Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 06:56 XeliN wrote:
Ok I was going to try to write a large response post to some of the things people have said about me, but I'm finding it difficult currently due to the ambiguity of the assertions, there have been some statements such as "sticking his neck out" "sided with bill" and other such things.
I know this will sound a little hmm arrogant or presumptuous maybe, but for the sake of clarity: if anyone has any specific questions about my play, conduct, arguments or actions that they would like me to directly answer then please state them clearly and I will do so .
I'm the most likely to be lynched atm, so plz humor me xD This post saying “I wont defend myself unless you ask me directly now” is a clever way of dodging all the previous comments and concerns. As rather than answering why he supported bm, or even making analysis on targets, he tries to pull himself out of the hotseat without actually having to do work. People then began to focus on inactive players at the time like misder, leaving xelin forgotten. He also asserts he was intending to actually contribute then decides he would rather not and sit back and pick what he responds to. His play this game has been spotty, very anti town and untop of it all extremely inactive. Based on this I would put him as a strong possibility to be Mafia, or since he refuses to defend himself directly from being lynched a VI although that to me seems more like a mafia ploy than reality. At this point he is a strong candidate for a mafia lynch, or if nothing else, it removes a non contributing inactive member out of the game. In both cases town comes away ahead. If he is VI, then I am as bad as BM. For now xelin is my #1 suspect, but I will start re-reading now to see if any others stand out glaringly. First off, you claim your experience by listing Xelin's characteristics while playing as a red, which include posting very selectively and attempting to hide from the public eye. However, you then claim that he "disregards the game" and has a "genuine lack of caring." This actually contradicts the modus operandi of a player who watches and waits for opportunities to post, and I want to hear what BC has to say. Saying you've put a behavior to a pattern is pretty questionable when you show that you don't have a real understanding of that pattern. ON the other hand, the second part of his analysis does strike a valid point, and I pretty much agree with it. TO SUM: BloodyC0bbler's and HFT's posts have been riddled with contradictions and characteristically unhelpful (HFT mostly does useless analysis, while a good portion of BC's posts are one-line attacks on BM and others, which I have omitted). I would like to see, in response, a solid defense with logic. If BC can back up his accusations of BM, SiN, and Xelin with more logical evidence (actually, mostly BM and SiN), I will consider him much less suspect.
Yay, random accusation #1 of the day, hurrah hurrah.
I will start with the fun bit, spreadsheets. You mention that because I failed to mention it was common place was created as a general "for my own benefit" style of defense. That is inaccurate. Ask opz, or Xelin, hell even bm to a degree from flamewheels last mafia game he ran. In that game, I had a spreadsheet, DTA, Xelin, Opz, all supplied me with information they themselves had written down, Rastaban was building one I believe with pandain but I could be wrong. Pyrr had one, I know foolishness had notes written down on people, etc..
How people play is their own style, but keeping notes about people (some people make posts in a thread on general suspicions) is very common place. Attacking me based on the fact HFT mentioned that he had a ton of information to share after he was replaced could very well be true. Keep in mind of those 12 pages of thread, a large detail of information was given in the last 4ish hour period. Depending on his last checking of the thread, it could be only 4 pages to catch up on, and the amount of general information already written down (then updated if done so from said spreadsheet) is fairly easy.
Point 2 of yours.
I can only touch on this briefly as it briefly talks about BM's plan which we are supposed to avoid. I proved him wrong by
A) showing him soft roleclaim non green earlier on
B) claimed actually what he was looking for before warning people to avoid his role sniffing
You can keep reading and realize that I was refuting points. I will admit I was far more heated than I perhaps had to be because BM infuriates me to no end when he spams.
I also did spend alot of time posting back and for with small posts, most of which were in hopes to stop BM from constantly spamming (double standard I know, but I was no where near as bad for it), I claimed town again to shut BM up about the claim thing, as I had to emphasize I had done so before his "trap" thus showing he was cherry picking posts, much to a degree you seem to be.
Now, for my "linking" of SIN, Xelin and BM. Firstly, I say this is obvious because they all agreed to an idea that most people found terrible. Untop of that, 3 people who have all had points raised against them by various people, not only defend eachother but attack the same person. Are all of them for certain red? Perhaps not, but when three players share alot of commonalities on how they appear, calling out similar targets, etc... it increases the chances they are communicating somehow. In this format, putting yourself out to defend someone who has been called out multiple times, or the like is risky. Some people will do this, but it is risky. This tends to happen when people have a reason to trust eachother, usually involves outside thread communication. In this case unless I horribly misread the OP, only the mafia can do so.
Factor in that Xelin never really refuted what I posted about him, instead he ignored it and let my post vanish in the sea of other accusations makes me believe he is red more thus strengthening his guilt in my eyes.
As for analysis of SIN and BM. I can do it of SIN and will, however as most of the posts that BM has made that make me suspect hes either red/VI are in a section BB wants us to not talk about, I can't really do much other than ask you this
Does his behaviour this game really indicate solidly pro town to you?
He pushed for and got a VI lynched and then bragged about how that was a good move by him. Spammed away alot of posts by myself, opz, drH and a few others I believe about why his plan was wrong until he got warned for it, etc...
His behaviour this game in my eyes strongly suggests that he doesn't have the town's interest at heart.
As for a note of general inactivity. It is currently Thanksgiving Weekend in canada, combine that with my job hunting since I recently moved my time available for mafia isn't the same as it was for me in the past.
I will now start my analysis of SIN in a seperate post to come in a bit, however, since its 3am as I am writing this, it may not come up till after I wake up.
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On October 10 2010 14:37 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily! Well someone out there knows I'm a town member, sheesh. I'm seriously waiting on BC. I want to see some multiparty analysis from him. Til then I'm going to vote for him. His argument with Bill was pretty...Well I was in it too....So I can't say much. But Bill did point out a good point with that about Happy. I was just waiting for more from BC...and I haven't gotten much more.
Dude, I have no issue popping out analysis, but waiting on me? I would ask if your expecting me to do it myself I ask you to do it as well. Your a solid player and shouldn't be relying just on my posts to figure out what to do.
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I think that we're all missing something. There are a lot of players lurking in the background and just getting by with a minimal amount of posts. I've gone EVERY player and worked out the number of total posts and when they were made.
Okay, now you'll have to try to bear with me. I originally compiled this in gedit but TL doesn't like adding extra white space so I had to take a screen shot.
+ Show Spoiler +In the picture above you can see the number of posts sub-divided into which period of play the posts were made in. The columns are divided as follows: PLAYER | PREGAME | DAY 1 | NIGHT 1 | DAY 2 | NIGHT 2 | DAY 3 | TOTAL | TOTAL - PREGAME
What you will notice is that there are several players who are only posting just enough to escape detection without having to stick their necks out. No one analyzes them because they do not say anything that is too suspicious.
From the compilation illustrated above, I'd like to propose that we look into players with very few posts and haven't been investigated yet. My criteria is anyone who is still in the game with fewer than 20 posts in-game. By scrutinizing and compelling these players to post will increase our chances to flush out any mafia hiding in the shadows.
These include:
- SouthRawrea (17)
- Amber[LighT] (14)
- kane]deth[ (9)
- RebirthOfLeGenD (1) - Replaced kane]deth[ and then subsequently replaced by kane]deth[
- NukeTheBunnys (19)
- Crisis_ (17)
- drag_ (8)
- CynanMachae (14)
- meeple (13)
- kingjames01 (20) - I included myself so that it was fair.
- ghrur (9)
Anyway, these guys should be posting. Why are they hiding and why are we allowing them to hide while we go after other players? From what I'm seeing, these guys come in and out of the game, point a few fingers and we waste a day at a time going in circles. The lease we can do is draw them out and make them justify their actions.
There are probably more conclusions that we can draw from the data that I compiled above. Feel free to dig through it and try to find more patterns.
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Okay, so after making that previous post, I went back through the thread with the intention of extraction each and every post made in-game by the players from the short list above.
I wanted to cross-reference their votes made in the other thread so that I could look for inconsistencies and patterns, complete with timelines and personal comments. I started in numerical order as dictated in the OP and I was typing this all up in a text editor but I just have to share with you something.
SouthRawrea is either a very bad Town or a very bad Mafia. Let's examine his 17 posts.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 05 2010 09:29 SouthRawrea wrote:
This game:
There are several differences in this setup than regular mafia games in case you can't be bothered to read the role descriptions.
1) Detective must wait until Night 2 for investigation which is frankly not helpful as it is 1 less report overall per detective.
2) Vigilante gets their shot or bat back if they overlap with mafia. Not a huge deal as an overlap isn't that likely.
3) Godfather can fake Village Idiot. Frankly as some have stated before this may be a bit OP and is a very good reason for Vigilante to save their bat.
4) Roleblocker now cannot block someone twice in a row which make DT claiming a little more viable especially once mafia loses a KP.
5) Mafia can practically save a KP for the next day while the poisoner is still alive.
Three huge things to watch out for
1) Like stated earlier, the Vigilante must not shoot until we get a Village Idiot report as it is the only way of safely killing a potential Village Idiot/Godfather as town.
2) Mafia can continuously use poison from any point in the game and have on of their players claim hit Veteran. The mafia will then be able to unleash 3 NK at any one night from that point onwards while having 1 NK the night before the claim and 2 NK for every night in between. This can be dangerous if town is too trusting of the hit claim and/or forgets about the 3 NK.
Ex: Night 2 : 1 poison 1 shot
Day 2: 1 death, mafia claims hit
Night 3: 1 poison 1 shot
Day 3: 2 deaths
Night 4 1 poison 1 shot
Day 4: 2 deaths
Night 5: 2 shot
Day 5: 3 deaths
3) Finally in a Lylo situation with Village idiot still alive, mafia can have a joint-win with the Village Idiot by lynching him. This will result in the day ending with both the Village Idiot and the Mafia's win requirements being fulfilled. (VI gets lynched and mafia # = town #)
Comment: This post reiterates content from the OP with commentary and ways the mechanics will come into play. There is no stance taken on how Day 1's lynch should take place. Overall a very shallow post. Note that SouthRawrea advocates saving the Vigilante to use against the Village Idiot. My question is what takes preference, killing a Red or the VI?
+ Show Spoiler +On October 05 2010 11:27 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 10:55 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Anyway, no. DT if you find a red bloke, I want you to build an argument for why he is mafia. Tell us what he is/is not doing that is/is not helping to town. I want you to lay into him. Be relentless. Don't pull no fucking punches. If his mama's a tramp, I want you to let us know. Shiaaaaaaat.
So ignore this kid's advice. It's weak sauce. -___-
Quiet people often get sniped by mafia toooooo. (Unless Radfield/Ace/L are playing)
Eh...Kinda got the Village idiot post. It was pretty smart thinking with Village Idiot/Mafia win....So we do gotta be careful, cuz if village idiot is down to last 3 "Hai I'm VI, lynch me!!" Mafia just have to wait for him to vote for himself. Lol. I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie. I'm going to assume that last part was directed to me. This kind of situation was common on the site I used to go on and made the Village Idiot all that more dangerous. This reinforces the reasoning that I had for saving the vig shot until we're sure that we've got either the idiot or the GF.
Comment: Seems to be a passive-aggressive push for the Blues to come out of hiding. The Medic should not be "one of the quiet folk" or the mafia will know who he is. The Detective has to be a "proactive townie". Again, he says to save the Vigilante but adds that the Godfather should also be considered a good hit. How do we identify the Godfather anyway? Could be well-intentioned advice; I'm not sure. Supports ~OpZ~.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 05 2010 21:48 SouthRawrea wrote:Woot no joint wins!  )))
Comment: No substance. Expresses happiness over the ruling that VI cannot share wins. Consistent with above post.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much.
We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives.
Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/
What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet.
Comment: Wants inactive players to be more active. Does not support lynching inactives this early in the game. Supports voting randoms. Is neutral to NukeTheBunnys.
October 06 2010 05:07. (07:53 remaining Day 1) ##Vote Divinek
Justification: None provided. I don't understand this vote. I just checked and SouthRawrea is the only other person to have voted for Divinek including retracted votes. Was Divinek chosen randomly, then? Or is there some other reason?
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 05:46 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 05:28 Divinek wrote:On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much.
We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives.
Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/
What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet. you're resorting to random voting with 6 hours left in the day? -_-;;;;;;;; cord worm i dont understand the system you're proposing, should everyone roll a random number? that'd be retarded, should everyone do it and then the person who gets the most similar RNGS be lynched? that's also bad because mafia can manipulate that. Even trying to scum hunt on very little information is alot better than being able to vote WITHOUT having to justify it, this is the way a scum would want to vote. we get NOTHING from today if everyone just RNG's their vote. But if you have to justify what you're doing (all be it most people would be like ' he's inactive lols' ) it gives you something to go off of, something to compare to future instances, some SUBSTANCE. If people are making small shitty posts to justify their votes, and then not removing them when the person is like HEY GUYS im here, and we should do this this and this. Then they look bad. But if they do this with your system you can just go LOL SRY I RNG'D. Or are you gonna re rng everytime someone speaks up? -___- it's a terrible system I know your play from many games south so i wont try to go too insane from one little thing like this but cmon man. That's not how RNG works usually. A couple people will RNG rolls and the town will bandwagon  . Derp. Sorry my head wasn't all there when I was typing up that post.
Comment: Divinek points out that SouthRawrea does not justify his vote and assumes it was random. SouthRawrea says that random votes start bandwagons.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 09:45 SouthRawrea wrote:
Err BM he wasn't in TL Mafia XXX... ? I'd also like to hear more about the smurf thing :O.
Comment: Indicates he does not know the smurf's aka.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 11:20 SouthRawrea wrote:
It's funny because I remember who pro is and I'm going to leave pro be.
Comment: Indicates he does know the smurf's aka. I don't understand.
October 06 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Day 1) Protactinium is lynched.
Comment: The day finishes and he never switched his vote from Divinek who he "randomly" chose.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 21:46 SouthRawrea wrote:
I lol'd so so soooo hard.
Comment: No substance. Inanity.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 06 2010 22:06 SouthRawrea wrote:
Hey Happy.. the game is still on .. reaad.
Comment: No substance. Also, ironic since Happy.fairytail was modkilled and replaced. "reaad"
October 07 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Night 1) bumatlarge and Infundibulum are killed.
Comment: No direct link between these three players.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 09 2010 07:00 SouthRawrea wrote:AH forgot about this game totally with getting my haircut and preparing for other stuff and what not :/. Strangely enough I find myself agreeing with BM's take on Happy.fairytail and BC. I'm going to completely ignore the Role PM controversy (with the whole TOWN vs CITIZEN thing) as even if it wasn't a miscommunication, in my opinion BM comes out on top simply because it is slightly suspicious. I would like to say this, I've been pretty inactive this day but I find that Misder's posts during day 1 have been consistent with not wanting to lynch without reasons. Eventually he gradually admits that he wouldn't want to lynch an inactive but votes for Xelin and then switches to Opz because he was inactive as well. This to me screams timid town role behaviour rather than mafia simply because his votes aren't quite bandwagonesque. In this case I believe that NuketheBunnys if mafia. Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 00:12 NukeTheBunnys wrote:
Wow spam much.
Right now I'm thinking Bill is either A. a second village idiot, or B. mafia trying to hide behind the fear of a second village idiot. Its very tempting to vote for him regardless just to get the spam to stop. I really don't understand why he is bragging about convincing everyone(myself included) to vote for the village idiot. Hurrr I made us lose on the first day Im a good player Hurrrrrrrr.
It's pretty unlikely for there to be a second village idiot so it seems that NuketheBunnys is implicitly stating that Bill is mafia. The reason why I picked this out is because one of the easiest posts for mafia to make that seems like content is giving an opinion on someone's role. (ex: He just seems like mafia to me.
As for the role PM's I think people are just trying to confuse everyone. Even if some one is helping brown bear host, I seriously doubt that he would send out half the role PMs, and some one else would send out the other half. I think anyone(read: Opz) claiming that their PM was not sent by brownbear is very suspicious. Im not going to get nitpicking about the town/townie distinction as they are commonly interchangeable.
He's unclear here about who these people are that are trying to confuse "everyone". However he seems to unknowingly (?) agree with Bill Murray that BloodyC0bbler's PM was highly suspicious yet clearly as shown elsewhere, he dislikes the way Bill Murray comes about with this information (ex:spam) which is highly understandable.
My next step is to go reread the past 7 pages completely ignoring everything Bill said and see if it makes any more sense. Then again maybe I should go back and point out the inconsistencies in his spam as Im sure I could find quite a few
Most likely an empty promise to read back but what troubles me is the fact that he's going to ignore Bill Murray's posts even though he thinks that Bill Murray is either VI or Mafia. If he was either of these would someone rather not do a post analysis? This is strange behaviour as the entire goal of mafia is to lynch the mafia but he says that he MIGHT go back and read BM's posts. Just an inconsistency I found that once again points to wanting to fit in with the town and perhaps get by to the next day undetected.
Comment: Explains inactivity. Will ignore PM controversy. However, the PM controversy makes BC look suspicious. Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives on Day 1. Inconsistent with above. Claims NukeThe Bunnys is mafia. I just read the rest of the post and his logic for this claim very tenuous. Nuke is mafia because he opposes Bill Murray. Also, insinuates that NukeTheBunnys makes "empty promises". Opposes Happy.fairytail/BloodyC0bbler. Supports Bill Murray. Supports Misder. Opposes NukeTheBunnys.
October 09 2010 07:01. (05:59 remaining Day 2) ##Vote NukeTheBunnys
Justification: NukeTheBunnys opposed Bill Murray
October 09 2010 07:27. (05:33 remaining Day 2) ##Vote Double Lynch
Justification: None provided
+ Show Spoiler +On October 09 2010 08:31 SouthRawrea wrote:I was actually pleased that NuketheBunnys made that post and then I read it. >.> Think of analysis like an English essay. The point of it is not to summarize but to prove a point. :/ A couple ways to improve this is to perhaps cut out some one liners or group them all together and provide your point for them altogether. An example of what you could've done is instead of saying "buddies up with xelin even more", you could've tried to indicate a connection between the two and went over a handful of their posts in relation to each other (When doing this just look to see if there is anything that shows an obvious connection between the two). If this is horrible advice I'm sorry but I'm pretty sure that it's good advice . You did provide a conclusion at the end which was essential but it'd be nice if you could link it all together.
Comment: Here SouthRawrea supports NukeTheBunnys post? Then proceeds to disparage his arguments because they do not prove a point? Will investigate more. Okay, I just looked up the post. It is a very detailed look into Bill Murray's behaviour in the game. I think that the evidence provided paints a very convincing picture. Why does SouthRawrea not comment on the validity of the arguments rather than the structure of the post? Also, why doesn't he quote this post so we know what he's talking about? Finally, he doesn't retract his earlier insult about delivering on "empty promises". Opposes NukeTheBunnys.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 09 2010 08:46 SouthRawrea wrote:
I can answer #1 for you Kingjames: Usually it's safer to maintain a worst case scenario mindset until we get a bit more insight into whether or not there is a roleblocker. (ex: roleblocked claim)
Comment: This was an answer to my question about why Pandain assumes the presence of the RoleBlocker. Satisfactory and illuminating.
October 09 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Day 2) Misder is lynched.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 05:58 SouthRawrea wrote:
Hey people that voted Misder, I'm checking you out.
Comment: Empty and completely unnecessary threat. I'm sure anyone who is innocent will do the same thing. Supports Misder (who is dead).
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 10:45 SouthRawrea wrote:Just because I'm not allowed to PM, I'd like to express my wish to PM Pandain expressedly. PANDAIN I WANT TO PM YOU. Just a suggestion: Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods might be a good idea. People who voted for lynching Misder in order of best reasons: Pandain - Pretty well done analysis on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38~OpZ~ -For the unexplained vote Misder put on ~OpZ~ infinitestory - Actually makes a post explaining why he though Misder was suspicious though I can't see why he'd vote for him in particular because he had plenty of other suspects at the time. DoctorHelvetica - No good reason. He was tunneling Siniquity the entire time and gave no real reason for Misder. LSB - He basically goes to pandain "who know you might be right" and votes Misder... drag_ - Absolutely nothing. A total of 10 posts. There almost seem to be 12 posts but 2 of those are from a link of siniquity's This was just me scanning over the posts and making it public who I'm going to examine. I would start with drag_ but because he has so little posts I thinking I'll examine him and LSB (as JeeJee didn't make a single post). Most likely within the same day I will go over DoctorHelvetica and/or Xelin because this particular post caught my eye. It just seems like a post that could be reduced to under 10 words and has no explanation within it and only an elongated 1 point opinion. I know I've been guilty of this to some degree except without just providing opinion. However it seems like major "slipping under the radar" to me. Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 17:07 XeliN wrote:
Dr claiming there is nothing of value whatsoever to be gleaned from the earlier PM discussions due to the fact it has now been revealed that 2 types were sent is false imo. Using them as a basis for argument may have flaws but the idea that they lack any merit whatsoever is not true. In case of my death tonight Suspects: Xelin, DrHelvetica, BloodC0bbler and at least 2 of the newer players including KingJames, drag_ and infinitestory.
Comment: Publicly states he wants to break the rules. Implies that he does not have the ability to PM. I don't understand the "Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods". Lists the players who voted for Misder during the previous day and their justifications. Only provides a link to Pandain and summarizes the rest in his own words. Of the 6 voters, only Pandain has a good reason apparently. Expresses intent to investigate drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica and/or XeliN. Will keep an eye out for this. For good measure, he accuses (without justification) BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory. Suggests that he might die overnight. Supports Pandain. Opposes drag_. Opposes LSB. Opposes DoctorHelvetica. and/or Opposes XeliN. Opposes BloodyC0bbler. Opposes kingjames01. Opposes infinitestory.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 10:53 SouthRawrea wrote::D I'm glad you could consolidate your posts. No hard feelings? I actually think I screwed the ctrl+f thing that one time while searching. It began the search part way through. Sorry about that. It wasa genuine mistake. I was going back through what I searched through just to make sure everything was right and yeah you did express suspicion. I'm in no way clearing you though .
Comment: I think he is referring to DoctorHelvetica's response. Very slimy and takes back his earlier statement about DrH's lack of justification for voting Misder. This seems suspicious. Is neutral to DoctorHelvetica.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 10:55 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 10:51 LSB wrote:Just saying, I voted for Misder a lot earlier than Pandian did.... o.o + Show Spoiler +On October 08 2010 06:23 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 04:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Also I need to put pressure on Misder again.
You're not getting away with being inactive this time buddy. Where is the evidence for your original accusations? Why did you fingerpoint and run away? Why did you fingerpoint, call out other players for not backing up their accusations, then go inactive without backing up your accusations?
I might have changed my vote to Xelin for the time being but you're still under fire here. Glad to. Okay, First of all, I did a quick read through. There is no Opz - Misder connection. + Show Spoiler +Then suddenly misder posts this... On October 06 2010 09:22 Misder wrote:
Actually, I’m just going to vote ~Opz~ right now instead of XeliN, just because of this tiny suspicion. I don’t know if I truly believe in that he is mafia, but I think he has a better chance at being mafia than XeliN. ... What? Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 13:03 Misder wrote:On October 05 2010 12:47 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'd rather you post your suspects now Mr. Misder?
What if mafia slay you at night?
=/ I think I rather wait. First, my suspicions aren't really big; they could be comepletely wrong, and I don't really have strong evidence. Plus, I'm still looking at different play styles from previous games. Second, this way, the mafia doesn't know whether I'm right or wrong, so if they really are scared, they're going to have to kill me If you guys really want, I'll post my suspicions, maybe to generate discussion or something on day 1. Which reminds me, how do we decide which inactive to lynch? I made this mistake last game, I fingerpointed when I was mafia. The problem was that I didn't have that good of an argument to start off with. I just did a "I'm pretty sure that they are mafia" Misder, can you elaborate for us who do you think is scummy? I know you mentioned Infun, but your analysis was shaky and wrong. On October 09 2010 11:18 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote:I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I'm such a good target for the mafia to start a bandwagon. I don't know if this is a good thing that the town is not impulsive or a bad thing that the town doesn't really like to do analysis... (well ghrur did, and i think he makes good points). And pretty much yeah, I took a shot in the dark, and I think I pretty much shot myself instead. Well this is what I had a while ago, but I never posted "~Opz~ Ok, I’m looking at him from the perspective of Mafia XXX, the most recent normal game. In this game ~Opz~ was tracker. I guess this isn’t the most amazing analysis, and most people also act differently from a green townie and a blue, but I’ll try. In day 1, as a blue ~Opz~ told the town what to do, coming up with plans, participating in the actual crux of what was going on. On August 07 2010 02:26 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Okay. Vigi should claim Day 2 IMO because he can't use his night kill til night 2. The vigi can openly suggest his target, meds protect target. If 2 people die that night, and dude is protected from a hit then BAM, we have a huge circle formed with meds confirming the vigi, DT's can openly claim to vigi or use a mouth, Bus Driver should stay hidden I feel...except to maybe the meds.
And if it is a mafia ploy? We'd have netted two mafia. The fake vigi claimer, and the dude who was hit by the vigi because he would have to have been protected. All medics should protect the guy getting vigi'd so they get the protection message, or mafia would have to use all KP to stop the plan, GIVING us quite a few more days... He never actually contributes in this game on Day 1, just blames all of the newcomers." So my analysis of him before was when he was a blue role, pretty much irrelevant... I didn't look back at games even older, when I should have. When I actually looked at him more in dept than my intuition and one day of the game where he was blue, I've come to a conclusion that ~Opz~ is most likely town. This is his quote from Mafia XXIII where he was actually townie. On July 18 2010 15:34 ~OpZ~ wrote:On July 18 2010 08:12 Jayme wrote:On July 18 2010 08:03 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
RNG lynch is dumb because you have more of a chance to land on a townie, and then he could be a helpful townie.
if we lynch an inactive we're killing someone who probably would not have helped us anyway
however, i don't want to lynch someone that would just get modkilled since that's obviously a waste.
Bill, how many votes can someone miss before they get zapped? As far as I know they can't miss any votes at all. We have more of a chance to land on a townie with any day 1 method we choose simply due to the fact that there are 24 townies and 6 mafia...there is no way of avoiding this. As a matter of fact I would say we have a better chance of hitting a good red player through RNG because I mean...who's to say that this "good townie" isn't just a red being a good townie. I understand lynching an inactive is killing someone who wouldn't have helped anyway but you're still doing just that...just about guaranteeing a green lynch which is completely pointless. As I said before I'm willing to go with either, there isn't much we could do. The issue I see with RNG is verifying if it's actually RNG. Actually....I'm done for this....Let me read a little more and we'll see who I want to die.... Also, I'm tired of these idiotic plans. We can pm. Dt, check someone PM them, pass turn, check someone PM them and the other person, pass turn. Quit playing like idiots and realize the benefits of having PMs....Nubby ass mafioso. And go back and look at games with PM's day one, no body does anything that day... The best thing I could say is everyone Roleclaim to me, and lynch me today...Or wait til tomorrow and do it. I'd inform of match ups, over counts, and die out as proof. How does that sound? I can send the PM out, and inform before death of everyone who doesn't respond, over counts of roles, ect. ect. I could be checked night one if that would be a problem, (wouldn't recommend organized multi checking though) and lynched day 2. Even if I was god father, god father would be out and too many blues to snipe with a list of roles and over claims. *yawn* But I don't really wanna die too bad, or abuse how easy this game could be. ~Opz~ has a condescending tone this mafia game, just like he does in this game. When I was reading through his posts in XXIII, its mostly yelling at people. Also, I believe that he is town because of he said that Artanis wrote Townie on his PM. If he was mafia, he wouldn't make such a huge claim. As for BM, I believe that he is VI. BM spammed most of Mafia XXX also, and he was ninja then. Question, what is the point of using an important vig shot on a supposed VI? Can't we just not lynch the VI and be done with? Or are we just afraid that then, mafia members can pose as VI and not get lynched? So question: Can't the mafia not kill BM if they believe that BM is not VI? Also, if BM is VI and tomorrow we double lynch him, don't we also lose? We're are depending on the mafia for this lynch to work, and I don't really like it. Also, mafia wouldn't be killing who they believe to be townies, and BM is definitely not playing like he is blue This analysis is junk and you know it is too. I don't get this magical intuition of yours. It sounds like you just made this up on the spot. Only thing that's nagging me is that Pandian just bandwagoned you. And Pandian for some reason has been bandwagoning whoever seems the most scummy at the moment. Who knows, maybe Pandian is right The double lynch questionDouble lynch increases town Kp, it's like getting an extra day (okay there are some difference, ie we won't know the end result) We can a) Follow up on two leads. b) Kill Bill Murray and someone else in one day. VOTE DOUBLE LYNCH Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that. Note, Mafia killing has a 100% chance of hitting a townie. That's why town lynching is preferred I voted for him because his analysis was junk. Turns out I was wrong about him :S Other junky posts were available at the time . I just felt you didn't have as good of a raisin bran muffin. (reason)
Comment: LSB defends his vote and SouthRawrea implies that LSB should have chosen someone else.
+ Show Spoiler +On October 10 2010 11:01 SouthRawrea wrote:
EBWOP: Sorry for triple post but post 1 is directed toward DrH and Post 2 at LSB
Comment: No substance. Confirms that his previous two posts were directed at DoctorHelvetica and LSB as I thought.
October 10 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Night 2) Pandain is killed.
Conclusion
- Casts vote on Day 1 without justification
- Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon"
- Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives
- Implies he does not know the smurf but in the following post says he remembers who the smurf is
- Accuses NukeTheBunnys of being mafia since he opposes Bill Murray
- When NukeTheBunnys replies, SouthRawrea dismisses all arguments by saying it's not in an essay form. Calls it "good advice".
- After Misder is lynched and revealed to be Town, SouthRawrea quickly aligns himself and makes an empty threat
- SouthRawrea publicly aligns himself to Pandain citing that he was the only one with a good "raisin bran muffin"
- In the same post SouthRawrea accuses drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica, and/or XeliN, BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory
- Suggests that he might be a target that night
- 2 hours and 15 minutes later Pandain is killed
- No post since
Together in one place, these posts paint SouthRawrea into a very small corner. I propose that the town takes action. I want SouthRawrea to explain himself.
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On October 10 2010 16:10 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 14:37 ~OpZ~ wrote:On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily! Well someone out there knows I'm a town member, sheesh. I'm seriously waiting on BC. I want to see some multiparty analysis from him. Til then I'm going to vote for him. His argument with Bill was pretty...Well I was in it too....So I can't say much. But Bill did point out a good point with that about Happy. I was just waiting for more from BC...and I haven't gotten much more. Dude, I have no issue popping out analysis, but waiting on me? I would ask if your expecting me to do it myself I ask you to do it as well. Your a solid player and shouldn't be relying just on my posts to figure out what to do.
No sir BC, that is not what I meant. I've been waiting to see something from you, so I could generate a better opinion about you. You know I can't trust you, and never do. And personally, even bringing up BM in your post made me suspect you more. We know BM wasn't playing pro-town. We haven't lynched him for fear of VI. Why did you feel you needed to beat a dead horse BC?
If you want my opinion, you've done more than Amber, and Xelin, and South, and Meeple. Kinda...annoyed they aren't posting at all. What you all have nothing to say? I'd venture 2 of you are mafia. Amber especially under suspicion.
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On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night.
Vet? Or Bulletproof? Or doc?
On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily!
We'll find that out by tomorrow. Anyways its a dumb idea for mafia to claim to be hit. If a person is poisoned tomorrow, we can easily lynch OpZ
Basically we know that OpZ is blue. Unless of course doc protected him, but I don't know if he gets notification
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On October 10 2010 12:50 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
If a person is saved by a medic, both he and the medic will be notified. If a person is poisoned, they will not know until they die the next day, unless a medic saves him/her.
Oh nevermind.
But it would be nice OpZ if you would claim.
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Can someone explain to me why we voted for a double lynch? I could have sworn we were going to get this insane amount of information, yet from what it seems we're still running around with our heads cut off.
Like what the hell happened yesterday? The day seemed pretty cut and dry. Vote Xelin and then see if mafia touches BM. Was this plan not sound? Then someone suggested a double lynch. I wasn't keen on the idea of doing this, and I vocally said going for a double lynch so early was a terrible idea.
So now we didn't lynch Xelin, but instead went for someone who wasn't even being discussed until the last 12 hours of the day (since I checked frequently up until then). What seems to be the plan? Where does Xelin sit on the list? BM? Did we just forget about them.
There is one thing I want to raise as suspicion, and everyone should consider this:
On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night.
I'm HIGHLY suspicious of this since we can't really check. Not only do I find it fishy that he would say this, but it's also weird that we would have 2 veterans with the possibility of a bulletproof in this game. It would seem that in a game this small it's more likely that only one person would fulfill each role, at the most. It makes no sense to stack roles like Veterans in this game, since our last veteran that died obviously had no clue how to use his role. However I will say that I am not suspcious of Opz because if he is a Veteran, he used the role very well, and his posts should be looked at to see who he targeted, if there's any relevant posts.
But I want everyone to mull over this. Our friend, BC, used the same tactic in another mafia game and it ruined the town for about 2 days because we didn't act!
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=133561¤tpage=81#1610
Cliffs: BC claimed to be protected by a medic on Night 2. We played along and didn't act upon this claim. He then went on to completely obliterate the town in the subsequent days in BM's game.
Is Opz lying? Well if you want to be sure we can lynch him. He isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once. He has been playing the fence throughout the whole game. Usually he pushes players against a wall more frequently, and he wasn't doing this in an aggressive way this time.
For the second lynch, you guys can figure it out. You wanted 2, now start investigating. I'm going to just vote for Xelin again since the double lynch plan was more sound with Xelin dying yesterday and BM dying today.
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On October 10 2010 13:24 Divinek wrote:NOOOOO PANDAIN, as much as I hate your fadoodles at least you play this game with heart! I will seek to avenge you my brother Now lets look at this motherfucker kane, I know there’s not much to look at lol Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 06:25 kane]deth[ wrote:
Due to school, I can really only post around this time.
Just making a post to indicate my activeness, will edit or post again later with thoughts after reading the thread.
Edit: So I'm not sure what content I must post to be not lynched so I suppose I'll just give my opinion on the RNGing lynching of inactives. I think it'll be a good idea as long as we're not lynching any modkills for obvious reasons. I personally don't contribute much and might be considered inactive, but thats because of my inexperience. >: So I think that at least pressuring people to post more is a good idea. Flat out giving us his excuse that he’s not gonna contribute much and be inactive, ie ANTI town. An argument could be made for town neutrality but that would require content from him. This is not an original idea btw, he’s literally parroting about 3 other people at this point. Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 06:45 kane]deth[ wrote:On October 06 2010 06:31 kingjames01 wrote:On October 06 2010 06:25 kane]deth[ wrote:
Due to school, I can really only post around this time.
Just making a post to indicate my activeness, will edit or post again later with thoughts after reading the thread. Just saw this and wanted to make sure you DON'T EDIT your post. Just make a new post. Welcome to the game! =) And I've just made a huge mistake >: Guilty conscience? I imagine his mafia buddies yelled at him for that one Show nested quote +On October 07 2010 10:26 kane]deth[ wrote:
I have no idea what to do once again. The more I try to find suspicious people, the more I think everyone is suspicious. I suppose I'll just keep reading and see if anyone really jumps out at me ._. Time and time I have seen new mafia players try this card out. They are confused, they don’t know what to do, this prevents them from having to put forward any of their own ideas because they know they are quite likely to slip up in ways they haven’t even thought of yet. Newbie town players are quite often FEARLESS, they know they got nothing to hide and they get into this game because they are EXCITED to get those mafia! NOT SCARED, why would you be scared if you were town? Then he apologizes for not voting blah blah more guilty conscience fuel Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 09:57 kane]deth[ wrote:
So I am currently voting for Misder as the proof that others have posted on him seems more reasonable than the accusations against any other player currently.
The plan on getting rid of BM seems reasonable as well, but most of the analysis today has been wasted on what to do with him instead of finding Reds.
Xelin seemed quick to bandwagon with BM but besides that he doesn't seem to be very suspicious. He could've just been slow on realizing how ridiculous BM's plans and not just bandwagoning for a kill. See that bolded word there? Yeah that’s right, OTHERs so if it goes bad (which it did) then he can go WELL I DIDN’T WANNA DO IT, but you guys presented such good arguments I agreed! Not my fault! It’s deflection at the most basic level Get rid of bm blah everyone already said that. Jumping on xelin too, everyone else did that. I mean this stuff would be fine to do of his own accord, but he’s just repeating everything that’s already been said. This is KEY because he can’t be caught for spewing bullshit because none of it is his own Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 09:59 kane]deth[ wrote:
Also note that I have no idea how these players have played in previous games, so I can't make references like that, or if something is strange or off about someone's playstyle. More I don’t know bullshit, as in don’t expect me to do things, to be useful. Blah blah im sick of your excuses. Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 10:21 kane]deth[ wrote:
I suppose proof was a bad word to use there.
The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random.
I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile? I love seeing this tactic. He apologizes, then puts up some shit justification and THEN he adds a question to the end of his post, as questions always take up everything you’re thinking about because you immediately try to answer that question and almost seemingly forget what you just read lol, quality double fake of the old flame fanning. Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 12:07 kane]deth[ wrote:
I had voted for Double Lynch already, as we would be able to lynch BM. Yuh yuh guys I agree with you don’t get angry with me im doing wut u asked. DIE Also as a little tidbit rol almost replaced this dude, look at rols only post in that entire time Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 16:00 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
HAI GUYS
SO U NO IM IN THIS GAME NOW SO I WILL POST LATER AFTER I READ. Excuse for inactivity followed up by NOTHING. Sorry kane you’re not going to continue coasting by unnoticed. There’s nothing but wifom trying to draw away from if it was because of you on his list that pandain was killed or not, but one thing I do know, you’ve been doing fuck all for us and I have a pretty good idea why. You’re getting my vote, I will avenge you pandain!
Firstly, my problems with your analysis
I wouldn't really call kane]deth[ that experienced (wasn't the only other game he played he got modkilled?)
Therefore we have to accept his excuses of being noobish as reality.
And don't blame him for all his questions, my first two games I had lots of those in my posts
And as you know, one of the posts was RoL, I'm not going to judge kane]deth[ off of RoL
Next, I'm going to do some analysis of my own
At the same time though, newcomers have giant "I'm Townie" lables on their posts, because of how they play.
"I'm Townie" traits-
- Does a lot, like over the weekends, they unleash huge torrents of spam/planning/accusations
- Relys on own analysis. Has sort of the "I don't trust anyone" appeal.
- (A continuation) They vote with good reasons, or abstain
kane]deth[ has been horrendously bad at doing any of this. His posts are all pretty cautious, he freerides off of other people's thoughts
He actually initially voted for Misder, pushing the bandwagon
On October 09 2010 12:19 kane]deth[ wrote:
##Vote Misder
And then afterwards he switches to Xelin, even though he's pretty convinced on misder. This screams wishy-washy to me
Kane]deth[ please roleclaim
Problems with my analysis: It could just be bad play / he doesn't really care.
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On October 10 2010 23:41 LSB wrote:Vet? Or Bulletproof? Or doc? Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily! We'll find that out by tomorrow. Anyways its a dumb idea for mafia to claim to be hit. If a person is poisoned tomorrow, we can easily lynch OpZ Basically we know that OpZ is blue. Unless of course doc protected him, but I don't know if he gets notification
im not following your rationale
say today there was hit+poison and he claimed he took a hit then tomorrow they could hit+poison, and hit+poision until the day they need 3 kills to win and then do hit+hit+poisonkill
so no it wouldn't be dumb. I find it interesting that you say so though.
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i suppose that depends on how poison shows up for a kill, does it say that they were poisoned?
also i agree that kane is very new so you have to look at him carefully, which i did. He's gone above and beyond being a confused new player though, he's been a useless, parrot, waggony new player quite characteristic of a brand new mafia player.
It's hard not to get into wifom when look at people like this, but the most simple conclusions seems to be he's floating by with NO posts, and no ideas of his own. At the very least if you believe he's town we need some proof of it, cause he's got 0 at this point and only evidence pointing towards mafia, thus voting would at least get him posting.
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On October 11 2010 00:28 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 23:41 LSB wrote:On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. Vet? Or Bulletproof? Or doc? On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily! We'll find that out by tomorrow. Anyways its a dumb idea for mafia to claim to be hit. If a person is poisoned tomorrow, we can easily lynch OpZ Basically we know that OpZ is blue. Unless of course doc protected him, but I don't know if he gets notification im not following your rationale say today there was hit+poison and he claimed he took a hit then tomorrow they could hit+poison, and hit+poision until the day they need 3 kills to win and then do hit+hit+poisonkill so no it wouldn't be dumb. I find it interesting that you say so though.
Ah, never thought about that.
Wait a minute. There are 15 town aligned players. If we miss twice there are 13 left, mafia will off two (assumign that Opz isn't lying), and then we are in Lylo...
So tomorrow is lylo if we fail.
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On October 10 2010 23:41 LSB wrote:Vet? Or Bulletproof? Or doc? Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 14:32 Divinek wrote:On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I took a hit last night. err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily! We'll find that out by tomorrow. Anyways its a dumb idea for mafia to claim to be hit. If a person is poisoned tomorrow, we can easily lynch OpZ Basically we know that OpZ is blue. Unless of course doc protected him, but I don't know if he gets notification
Read above. It's definitely possible especially when the mafia has such a good control over the game, and they do right now.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/AygC7.jpg)
