EPTA few general things I found
1) No one was on both the Day1 and Day2 bandwagon
2) Basically everyone did not make a safe vote both days (by safe, I mean they were the only one voting for someone)
TL Mafia XXXI - Page 48
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
A few general things I found 1) No one was on both the Day1 and Day2 bandwagon 2) Basically everyone did not make a safe vote both days (by safe, I mean they were the only one voting for someone) | ||
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kane]deth[
Canada368 Posts
On October 10 2010 09:04 Pandain wrote: [b]12.kane]deth[ What are you basing your accusation on? | ||
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Pandain
United States12985 Posts
On October 10 2010 10:00 kane]deth[ wrote: What are you basing your accusation on? shhhhhh its a secret | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
Just a suggestion: Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods might be a good idea. People who voted for lynching Misder in order of best reasons: Pandain - Pretty well done analysis on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38 ~OpZ~ -For the unexplained vote Misder put on ~OpZ~ infinitestory - Actually makes a post explaining why he though Misder was suspicious though I can't see why he'd vote for him in particular because he had plenty of other suspects at the time. DoctorHelvetica - No good reason. He was tunneling Siniquity the entire time and gave no real reason for Misder. LSB - He basically goes to pandain "who know you might be right" and votes Misder... drag_ - Absolutely nothing. A total of 10 posts. There almost seem to be 12 posts but 2 of those are from a link of siniquity's This was just me scanning over the posts and making it public who I'm going to examine. I would start with drag_ but because he has so little posts I thinking I'll examine him and LSB (as JeeJee didn't make a single post). Most likely within the same day I will go over DoctorHelvetica and/or Xelin because this particular post caught my eye. It just seems like a post that could be reduced to under 10 words and has no explanation within it and only an elongated 1 point opinion. I know I've been guilty of this to some degree except without just providing opinion. However it seems like major "slipping under the radar" to me. On October 08 2010 17:07 XeliN wrote: Dr claiming there is nothing of value whatsoever to be gleaned from the earlier PM discussions due to the fact it has now been revealed that 2 types were sent is false imo. Using them as a basis for argument may have flaws but the idea that they lack any merit whatsoever is not true. In case of my death tonight Suspects: Xelin, DrHelvetica, BloodC0bbler and at least 2 of the newer players including KingJames, drag_ and infinitestory. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 10 2010 10:45 SouthRawrea wrote: Just because I'm not allowed to PM, I'd like to express my wish to PM Pandain expressedly. PANDAIN I WANT TO PM YOU. Just a suggestion: Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods might be a good idea. People who voted for lynching Misder in order of best reasons: Pandain - Pretty well done analysis on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38 ~OpZ~ -For the unexplained vote Misder put on ~OpZ~ infinitestory - Actually makes a post explaining why he though Misder was suspicious though I can't see why he'd vote for him in particular because he had plenty of other suspects at the time. DoctorHelvetica - No good reason. He was tunneling Siniquity the entire time and gave no real reason for Misder. LSB - He basically goes to pandain "who know you might be right" and votes Misder... drag_ - Absolutely nothing. A total of 10 posts. There almost seem to be 12 posts but 2 of those are from a link of siniquity's This was just me scanning over the posts and making it public who I'm going to examine. I would start with drag_ but because he has so little posts I thinking I'll examine him and LSB (as JeeJee didn't make a single post). Most likely within the same day I will go over DoctorHelvetica and/or Xelin because this particular post caught my eye. It just seems like a post that could be reduced to under 10 words and has no explanation within it and only an elongated 1 point opinion. I know I've been guilty of this to some degree except without just providing opinion. However it seems like major "slipping under the radar" to me. In case of my death tonight Suspects: Xelin, DrHelvetica, BloodC0bbler and at least 2 of the newer players including KingJames, drag_ and infinitestory. Are you kidding? I've been suspicious of misder since day 1 because of his posting habits and I explained multiple times why I suspected him. In fact one of my first posts come day 2 was my reasoning. 1. Multiple accusatory posts with no backing support (typical of mafia trying to confuse the town) 2. painting himself extremely pro-town, even going out and criticizing other players guilty of the same posting habits of himself 3. mostly inactive until there is a ton of pressure on him 4. claims to have a lot of suspects without ever revealing it. only reveals his thoughts when under heavy pressure No I didn't do a huge post like Pandain, that doesn't mean I never explained my reasoning lol. The reason I didn't switch my vote to SiNiquity was for two reasons. 1. it would be pointless considering the size of the misder/xelin bandwagons 2. I hadn't yet combed through all of his posts | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On October 08 2010 06:23 LSB wrote: Glad to. Okay, First of all, I did a quick read through. There is no Opz - Misder connection. + Show Spoiler + Then suddenly misder posts this... On October 06 2010 09:22 Misder wrote: Actually, I’m just going to vote ~Opz~ right now instead of XeliN, just because of this tiny suspicion. I don’t know if I truly believe in that he is mafia, but I think he has a better chance at being mafia than XeliN. ... What? I made this mistake last game, I fingerpointed when I was mafia. The problem was that I didn't have that good of an argument to start off with. I just did a "I'm pretty sure that they are mafia" Misder, can you elaborate for us who do you think is scummy? I know you mentioned Infun, but your analysis was shaky and wrong. + Show Spoiler + On October 09 2010 11:18 LSB wrote: This analysis is junk and you know it is too. I don't get this magical intuition of yours. It sounds like you just made this up on the spot. Only thing that's nagging me is that Pandian just bandwagoned you. And Pandian for some reason has been bandwagoning whoever seems the most scummy at the moment. Who knows, maybe Pandian is right The double lynch question Double lynch increases town Kp, it's like getting an extra day (okay there are some difference, ie we won't know the end result) We can a) Follow up on two leads. b) Kill Bill Murray and someone else in one day. VOTE DOUBLE LYNCH Note, Mafia killing has a 100% chance of hitting a townie. That's why town lynching is preferred I voted for him because his analysis was junk. Turns out I was wrong about him :S | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
On October 10 2010 10:51 LSB wrote: Just saying, I voted for Misder a lot earlier than Pandian did.... o.o + Show Spoiler + On October 08 2010 06:23 LSB wrote: Glad to. Okay, First of all, I did a quick read through. There is no Opz - Misder connection. + Show Spoiler + Then suddenly misder posts this... On October 06 2010 09:22 Misder wrote: Actually, I’m just going to vote ~Opz~ right now instead of XeliN, just because of this tiny suspicion. I don’t know if I truly believe in that he is mafia, but I think he has a better chance at being mafia than XeliN. ... What? I made this mistake last game, I fingerpointed when I was mafia. The problem was that I didn't have that good of an argument to start off with. I just did a "I'm pretty sure that they are mafia" Misder, can you elaborate for us who do you think is scummy? I know you mentioned Infun, but your analysis was shaky and wrong. + Show Spoiler + On October 09 2010 11:18 LSB wrote: This analysis is junk and you know it is too. I don't get this magical intuition of yours. It sounds like you just made this up on the spot. Only thing that's nagging me is that Pandian just bandwagoned you. And Pandian for some reason has been bandwagoning whoever seems the most scummy at the moment. Who knows, maybe Pandian is right The double lynch question Double lynch increases town Kp, it's like getting an extra day (okay there are some difference, ie we won't know the end result) We can a) Follow up on two leads. b) Kill Bill Murray and someone else in one day. VOTE DOUBLE LYNCH Note, Mafia killing has a 100% chance of hitting a townie. That's why town lynching is preferred I voted for him because his analysis was junk. Turns out I was wrong about him :S Other junky posts were available at the time . I just felt you didn't have as good of a raisin bran muffin. (reason) | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 10 2010 10:53 SouthRawrea wrote: :D I'm glad you could consolidate your posts. No hard feelings? I actually think I screwed the ctrl+f thing that one time while searching. It began the search part way through. Sorry about that. It wasa genuine mistake. I was going back through what I searched through just to make sure everything was right and yeah you did express suspicion. I'm in no way clearing you though .No hard feelings of course. If you want to view all of someones posts you can simply go to their profile. | ||
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XeliN
United Kingdom1755 Posts
ie. look at the posts Dr was making before it as quite clearly I was responding to him. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
Night 2 Pandain missed the Mad Max night so he tried to steal the videotape from someone. That person was quite attached to his Mad Max video which was soon filled with the green blood of Pandain. Pandain the Townie is now dead Voting for day 3 has now begun. Don't forget that it's a double lynch people. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
Unless of course, Bill Murray pipes up about why he isn't dead | ||
infinitestory
United States4053 Posts
It's true I had several other suspects at the time, including HFT/BC who seemed quite scummy. I decided not to vote Crisis_ not because he stopped being suspicious, but more because his post flaws seemed more due to newness than actual scumminess. I started questioning BM's analysis of HFT/BC more after BM put out that really questionable and spammy plan. I realized that while the HFT/BC analysis was based on one contradiction and some intuition, my own view of Misder's posts included several contradictions and some intuition. So I voted Misder, because my suspicion for him surpassed my suspicion for HFT/BC. The others aren't off my radar, though, and I'm going to go look over some of the analyses for SiNiquity now as well. | ||
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Pandain
United States12985 Posts
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infinitestory
United States4053 Posts
Pandain knew he was going to die? I want to say "perhaps he got something right in his final suspect list?" but I'm really afraid the mafia have thought this out on an extra level, in a reverse-psychology way  | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 10 2010 11:41 infinitestory wrote: osht Pandain knew he was going to die? I want to say "perhaps he got something right in his final suspect list?" but I'm really afraid the mafia have thought this out on an extra level, in a reverse-psychology way this sort of thinking is wifom. there are infinite layers of potential reverse psychology and analysing it is a waste of time | ||
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infinitestory
United States4053 Posts
On October 10 2010 11:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote: this sort of thinking is wifom. there are infinite layers of potential reverse psychology and analysing it is a waste of time yeah, I guess it is a waste what does wifom mean? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 10 2010 11:46 infinitestory wrote: yeah, I guess it is a waste what does wifom mean? wine in front of me it's from the scene in the princess bride when the dude is trying to guess which goblet has poison based on a neverending loop of reverse psychology tricks | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
no, infinitestory or whoever was saying we should hold the mafia hostage with the VI, and I was pointing out that was a stupid idea over and over again. I'm absolutely thrilled that you've somehow taken that and twisted it into making me look like a moron. I hope the rest of your post isn't like this. (b) "worthless post about protacts smurf" smurfing hurts town. Lynching hurts smurf. I thought putting more pressure on protact would get him to fess up. If you were smart you'd have seen that I threatened him, he ignored me and just kept posting, and then I voted to put him in the lead and tried to keep the pressure on him, but he didn't budge. Yet you think posting "10 minutes left" with protact having a single vote lead, one of them being me, and protact actively posting, is worthless. Ironically, the fact that he did nothing was the biggest tell that he was VI: On October 06 2010 13:41 SiNiquity wrote: I'm down with the game being over. It doesn't take a genius to figure out someone who's headed to the gallows and has the ability to escape but doesn't (i.e. was leading only by one vote and could remove one vote by telling me who he was) is the VI, and I was perfectly content with that possibility. (c) SiNiquity: "[BB: let's continue.. why bother restarting?] No I agree. Except then at least I'd have a chance at a mafia role I'm always town-aligned, gets old after awhile." Why say this? Because I'm always town aligned and it gets old after awhile, which is why I was perfectly content with protact being VI and rerolling  (d) "now ALL THE WAY from page 22 to 39 he spams one-liners with NO information" you sir are a dirty little liar. I didn't post after page 25 until page 39. Not that this mischaracterization is out of line with anything else you've said. You're just as bad as BC in the last game I played when he analyzed me. Yeah I spammed a bit on 22-25 when nothing important was going on, during twilight and immediately after protact was pronounced VI. Sue me. Points (e) through (l) are referencing my large post on page 39 (e) "he claims he doesn't want to encourage durther discussion of the PM's but yet his entire post is centered around discussing EXACTLY that." I didn't want people to discuss to reveal additional PM knowledge as that was clearly banned, but wanted to reference the claims people had already made, as I thought we had some actual concrete evidence to work from, and ignoring that would be stupid. Hence the disclaimer. (f) "It had already been confirmed some pms were sent by artanis and that they were worded differently." Up until that point, there was no confirmation of different wording in the PMs. There was however confirmation that multiple hosts PMed people. Silly me for thinking anyone in this thread would need such a distinction pointed out. Oh wait, I did. In the point you're rebutting. + Show Spoiler [Blue posts from pg 33 to my pg 39] + On October 07 2010 15:22 BrownBear wrote: I just logged in and saw this. What the fuck. BM... stop. On October 07 2010 15:28 BrownBear wrote: BM, the next time I see this level of spam, it's a modkill. You've taken up like 60% of the last 3 pages BY YOURSELF. ffs stop spamming, or at least consolidate it all into one post. On October 08 2010 00:53 BrownBear wrote: Let's pleast stop talking about the PMs. It's a slippery slope, and as you all know, quoting all or part of them is illegal. Get back to scumhunting based off of analysis, not stupid PM-based shit. On October 08 2010 05:41 BrownBear wrote: It really pisses me off that role PMs are STILL being discussed here. Since this seems to be a sticky point, and since some people know this and others don't, I'll clarify it for everyone here. Both Artanis and I sent out role PMs, to make our workload easier. We had no clue it would be so much of a federal fucking issue when we did so. Now STOP TALKING ABOUT IT AS THOUGH IT'S A PART OF THE GAME. On October 08 2010 06:10 BrownBear wrote: RoL has very kindly given kane]deth[ back his role. kane will continue the game on double super-secret probation: if he gets modkilled for missing another vote, I will be very sad (g) "complains about spam despite being a terrible spammer himself." Yes, let's take an outright lie from point (d) and use it to draw a conclusion. (h) "BM's plan was clever despite the fact that it was totally useless because not every role PM was worded the same way. SiNiquity either doesn't know this or is feigning ignorance" See point (f). (i) bill maintained town was the correct answer because that's the PM he received. people received different PM's so none of what you just said matters in the slightest bit. there was no trap. See point (f). (j) (In reference to: caveat ~ PM wording may have been different) do you even realize this sentence makes your ENTIRE post fall apart? Yes which is why I put it both at the top and bottom of my post. Because it was that important. (k) (In reference to: "Take the following with a grain of salt") oh i will: Oh you're a clever one. (l) you agree with BM's methods and come out with compeltely different conclusions. there are two scenarios that makes this possible.
Or I received a role PM that said townie which meant BM was parading town as the correct answer to catch other people. But that would depend on the PM wording being the same huh. I wonder if I should, idk, make a disclaimer about that? The next post you quote even elaborates on this, but naturally you ignore that.Look, now that I understand BM's plan (i.e. he really did mean "town"), I agree it was utterly and ridiculously stupid (seriously - "Hey guys I'm town, so what are you, town/townie, oh and btw if you're blue answer 'town' since that's the super-secret right answer, but otherwise tell me are you town/townie" Gee I wonder what -mafia- would respond with?). From my perspective (i.e. OpZ's), I thought it was all a clever trap.. too clever for BM though, and I should've realized that. (m) What is this post about? Protecting BM and explaining his late vote. Mafia like to vote late so that they make sure to have the least conspicous vote possible. ~ Taking this in turn
(n) He says "I understand BM's plan" yet in his previous post he interpreted CLEARLY in the exact opposite way BM did. Seriously, this is getting old. Thank God I'm almost done with this. Read your paraphrase, read the quote in point (l) and honestly tell me if they're the same. If English is your 2nd language, I forgive you.(o) If that is the case there is no way he understood what BM was doing unless they communicated or unless SiN has really really bad reading comprehension. The irony of your words is seeping from my monitor. If <false paraphrase> is true, then <draw conclusion> unless <conclusion #1 out of 2 from (l) is true> or <completely unrelated yet highly ironic possibility is true> (p) (Referring to me thinking Misder/XeliN are not mafia) Would you like to explain? Misder didn't end up being mafia, just a bad townie. Yeah it was totally Misder's fault for getting lynched. Stupid bad townie (q) (Continuing from prev. point) But why even say this if you aren't going to provie a reason? Not only does he not back up his defense but he doesn't propose an alternative. He isn't scumhunting which is what town should be doing. Lynching mafia. His late posts convinced me he wasn't scum which is why I didn't vote for him - I'm sorry that this wasn't obvious based on the fact that I posted that right after Misder posted. I don't think XeliN is mafia because he was the first to articulate BM's tactics, which I already stated in my "long analysis post." But you read that and picked it apart already, so you'd know this, right? As for why I didn't make a case for someone else, all of this was 15 minutes or something like that before the lynch, so no, I didn't make a case for someone else, because there wasn't enough time.[Summary]: (a) misrepresentation (b) stupid (c) (d) lies (e) misunderstanding (f) lies (g) conclusion from lies (h) unsubstantiated claim (i) unsubstantiated claim (j) (k) clever jab (l) incomplete analysis due to conclusion from unsubstantiated claim (m) misrepresentation (n) misrepresentation (o) misrepresentation / stupid (p) (q) misrepresentation / I don't even know. Stupidly high expectations? | ||
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