I believe OpZ when he said he took a hit. Even if he's lying, it's not like it's hurting our game that much. If someone were poisoned, we'd find out the next night anyway, and figure he was lying. As for his wording, it is likely that he is a vet/bulletproof because he would have otherwise said "I was hit, but saved" or some wording like that.
As for Cynan, I think he's definitely town now, after re-looking over his posts. They seemed suspicious before, but after looking at it from a town-play perspective, it was simply standard posting.
I'm still looking forward to hearing from kane]deth[, though. There's just not enough evidence to really put him down.
And while we're at it, since we have a double lynch, I'd like to hear from drag_ and ghrur, since they too have minimal posting.
Foreword: My analysis is not perfect, but here it is. Oh and by the way, after going through his post history and what he has said he is an excellent choice for today's lynch. Fantastic. Glad we've got that out in the open. Well since you've been through my post history, I expect all of the following will be new and enlightening, since I just responded to Dr. H yesterday.
SiNiquity was extremely active prior to the start of the game, but he went 49 hours between posts once the game started ~ anyone can verify this with the "find" function Alright, let's do that.
September 11 2010 - first post. September 16 2010 - 5 day gap September 17 2010 - 1 day gap September 19 2010 - 2 day gap September 20 2010 - 1 day gap September 21 2010 - 1 day gap September 22 2010 - 1 day gap September 27 2010 - 5 day gap October 04 2010 - 8 day gap October 04 2010 09:24 <-- Post that I received my role October 04 2010 13:00 <-- Game starts October 06 2010 10:41 <-- First "official post" October 06 2010 12:59 <-- Day 1 ends
(a) That pre-game stuff is not "extremely active" by any stretch of the imagination, and even when I did post it was spam by definition as the game had not started. (b) No, I didn't post on day 1 until towards the end, because there was nothing of substance to post about. It's Day 1. I started posting when there was something of interest, namely the revelation by BrownBear and Protactinium that Protactinium was a smurf.
He voted for Protactinium because he smurfed, and this was a bad reason. See point (b) for Dr. H.
SiN took "BM knew protactinium was smurfing... as solid evidence..." I don't even know what that's supposed to mean. I didn't take BM's claim that he was smurfing as solid evidence, I took BrownBear/Protactinium's claim that he was smurfing as fact.
On October 06 2010 10:11 Bill Murray wrote: OK. It's not fair. If I want to meta him, and provide both town and mafia games, I have to say who he is. That is NOT FAIR to me making a case on him.
They wish to remain unknown, I am honoring their request. You may meta all you want with the game they played as Protactinium. I'm sure you can work with that, but it's really not up for discussion.
On October 06 2010 10:11 Bill Murray wrote: OK. It's not fair. If I want to meta him, and provide both town and mafia games, I have to say who he is. That is NOT FAIR to me making a case on him.
They wish to remain unknown, I am honoring their request. You may meta all you want with the game they played as Protactinium. I'm sure you can work with that, but it's really not up for discussion.
What a strange rule. Oh well, I guess we must live with injustice.
I'm leaving it up to Protactinium. If he wants to reveal himself I have no problem with that. If he wants to remain secret, I have no problem with that either.
On October 06 2010 10:25 Protactinium wrote: I won't reveal myself, since that would take effort. Somebody else can graciously do it and save me the trouble if he/she would like.
On October 06 2010 10:11 Bill Murray wrote: OK. It's not fair. If I want to meta him, and provide both town and mafia games, I have to say who he is. That is NOT FAIR to me making a case on him.
They wish to remain unknown, I am honoring their request. You may meta all you want with the game they played as Protactinium. I'm sure you can work with that, but it's really not up for discussion.
What a strange rule. Oh well, I guess we must live with injustice.
I'm leaving it up to Protactinium. If he wants to reveal himself I have no problem with that. If he wants to remain secret, I have no problem with that either.
In my view it is the smurf's burden to enforce the secrecy of his own identity if he so wishes. I don't think mod intervention in protecting someone's identity is fair.
Agreed. Mod should neither encourage nor discourage one to reveal the smurf's identity barring any smurfing rule.
On October 06 2010 10:54 SiNiquity wrote: so protactinium, who are you? You're tied for the lead to be killed.
demanded that he reveal his smurf (not asking what the reasons behind his smurfing could be), and lynched him for it. That's one way of putting it, but that's like saying Romeo and Juliet are a couple of peeps that died for love - accurate only in the weakest sense. See Dr H, point (b). As for why he might, well probably for fun. But let me bit a pedantic: what does smurfing do? Well it conceals your "true" (i.e. more well-known) identity. What is the impact of this in a game of Mafia? It removes an entire player's history from the meta game. Is this advantageous to the town? No, because Mafia is a game of information, and more information is advantageous to the town (less is advantageous to the Mafia).
Couple in the fact that BB said that revealing for him to reveal who Protactinium was wasn't up for debate and that he was going to keep his smurf secret. Again with the over-simplification. BB originally said not to reveal the smurf, then backpedaled into saying he wasn't going to reveal it and would give a "stern look" to anyone that did. Protactinium then came out and said he didn't care and would let anyone who wanted to reveal his smurf. The series of quotes are above.
When you factor in that a mod will usually only let someone smurf for a good reason On what basis do you make this claim?
it is easy to guess Protactinium is most likely a good player. Offing a good player who doesn't have their name behind them would be a good day 1 lynch if you could push it. The implication of this being "SiNiquity offed Protactinium because he's a good player." Which when you actually read it is stupid, because I voted for him to put pressure on him to reveal his smurf and explicitly said so multiple times (again, see point (b)). And just to spell it out (because I seem to consistently underestimate the difficulty it is to make these connections) the implicit implication is that had he revealed his smurf, I would've moved my vote.
Posting about people getting mod-killed is almost as bad as posting vote lists to maintain a level of "contributing activity". One of the #1 thing that usually 1 mafia on a team does is post vote lists to seem active. This is the same general thing, what makes it worse is that this was already posted in BB's vote thread. He didn't even get it himself, he simply reposted a mods information. Yes, I was re-iterating the rules for getting mod-killed, one of which was not voting, since 5 out of the 7 people were actively posting in the thread but not voting in the voting thread. If they're posting in the main thread, but not voting, then the most obvious conclusion is that they're not reading the voting thread. So yes, I tied BrownBear's list with the rules to emphasize that 5 out of 7 people, who were participating, were about to be killed. But you take this and make it look criminal.
Day 2
Keep a close eye on time stamps oh I will (at this rate I'm doubtful you'll get the joke here).
Now, we can see that he posted once during the night period first half of day 1 then came back 24 hours later... Wait, you made that dramatic "Watch the timestamps..." for that? You don't think you could've just said that? Also I was going to rail you for the night / day 1 mix up, but I think that was just an honest mistake.
... to post analysis on me... Don't take it so personally. It was not an analysis on just you, it was an analysis on everyone who claimed "town" when I thought BM meant "townie."
...claiming that I fell for bm's trap and that referring to the OP as a defense was part of my guilt. Keeping in mind that in the rules comparing PM's is against the rules and a modkillable offense. So suspecting me based on NOT breaking the rules. Keeping in mind that "BM's trap" was using "town" as bait (since the real answer was "townie.") So not only was it the wrong answer, it was someone relying on the OP. You can't deny that this is suspicious from my point of view. But then BrownBear confirmed that the PM wording differed and BM explained he really did mean "town," which nullified my theory. But congrats, you're back on my radar. Not for suspecting me, but for making me effectively reiterate everything I've already said a third time. It's almost like you prepared this last night and didn't post it until today (you said you went through my "post history" yet seem to be completely oblivious to the rebuttal I made to Dr. H which addresses most of this).
After that he vanished for just shy 24 hours AGAIN...
lol really, could you be any more over dramatic? This whole post reads like this.
...then started by a few one liners. Yes, I come back and see people pushing for double lynch on day 2, so I start going -wtf- why are we double lynching on day 2?
From there he moved into saying
Look, now that I understand BM's plan, I agree it was utterly and ridiculously stupid (seriously - "Hey guys I'm town, so what are you, town/townie, oh and btw if you're blue answer 'town' since that's the super-secret right answer, but otherwise tell me are you town/townie" Gee I wonder what -mafia- would respond with?). From my perspective (i.e. OpZ's), I thought it was all a clever trap.. too clever for BM though, and I should've realized that."
First off, he had agreed to BM's plan as clever just 24 hours before hand. Because I misunderstood it. This is blatantly stated in the post that you are quoting and analyzing. Ok, now that I've hit my head a few times, I think I've got it. "Look, now that I understand" means that before I didn't understand, but now I do. I can't believe I'm having to connect dots like these.
He also then said that rather than having his own perspective (he was using opz's) I'm dying here. Stop. STOP.
he should have realized the clever trap he liked the day before was too clever for BM? ...Yes. Holy shit. YES. That is absolutely correct.
This seems to me as not really contributing It's seeping from my computer again.
as it is backtracking since he was coming under heat for supporting something really stupid. No I was "backtracking" (just to be pedantic, the correct derogatory term to use here is "backpedaling") because Bill Murray came out and said precisely what he meant. Which was not what I thought he meant.
town players were not PM'ed the word "town" but rather "townie" as their role. XeliN sums this up nicely:
actually, it's the opposite, siniquity. you must be blue/mafia.
I can see him doing this as both town or mafia aligned, but he should have stressed his own reasoning behind it (who convinced him, etc..) rather than just saying someones perspective and moving on. Yeah, I wonder who convinced me I was wrong in my interpretation. It certainly wasn't the person quoted above. And if you still don't get the "OpZ's perspective" thing then you're too dense to be doing this kind of analysis. Especially because it's in my "post history:"
If your role PM said townie than what you said makes sense. If you're admitting to that then a lot of what you said makes sense under that light. Obviously you didn't say that so I hope you can see how the conclusion that you and bill murray had communicated out of game could be drawn?
No I never said (and note that I -still- have not said) what my role is directly because BrownBear explicitly said to stop discussing PMs, and me saying "hey my PM said ________ and was from _______" would be violating this, as well as the disclaimer of my own post (the one from page 39, the long analysis one). I did however allude to it as heavily as I could: Smiley face by Opz when saying who I thought was likely town, saying this was all from "MY" perspective, then clarifying in a later post that "MY" perspective was the same as OpZ's perspective.
I can see how the conclusion could be drawn, but you also mentioned another possibility (namely the real one) but completely dismissed it and used the other one to draw conclusions. That's just dishonest.
you could be very well lying but your defense is satisfying to me. I'm not saying you're definitely mafia but pressure needed to be applied to you to clear that up, is that ok with you? you seem personally very offended
lol offended? No. I'm only offended that we're making crucial decisions on analysis like that. If you are alluding to the fact that my retorts were pointed and often critical of your analysis, then sure.
After looking back at Divinek's posts, I understand his mentality of pressuring me now. He seems mostly pro-town, pressuring the less active people into posting and trying to find out if they're red or not.
I did not count 1 line post with no real content. A bit less then half the people have posted by now with most of the content from a small group of people(~OpZ~,Amber[LighT].Divinek and Misder and some others) If we choose to vote inactive, we currently have quite the pool to choose from
oh my god lol. I think besides just sheer probability alone there is more than likely at least one mafia member in there. Yes they are likely to be active on day1, but they are also likely to just stay above the threshold of activity to go unnoticed. When there's that many people inactive there's not much pressure to post more than that 1, 'im here post', and even then they wouldn't have to until some more of these people start posting.
SUP cynanmachine, you have the longest name so you stand out to me!
On October 02 2010 07:05 Divinek wrote: it's all if you think you can be active enough lol. Really you would probably only need to dedicate maybe an hour a day, during day cycles, to the game to be perfectly active enough.
On September 08 2010 14:01 Divinek wrote: wait the inactive player is hosting a game, i duuuuuuuunno. Is artanis active enough to compensate or something
So yeah, from early on you can tell he has a dislike for inactives. So how does he deal with this? He likes to pressure people to talk by voting for them or otherwise.
On October 06 2010 01:47 drag_ wrote: Hi guys, I'm generally going to be posting around this time as it fits my time zone/schedule better
I don't really understand the point of voting inactives off? I'm new at this game, but surely that just makes it really easy for the mafia to avoid getting voted off for the first few rounds. Unless they're just really lazy...
the idea is to not truly hang someone that has barely posted. Put to pressure someone with the threat of killing them should they not speak up.
You are correct we NEVER get a mafia by killing someone that doesn't talk. This is because mafia have their buddies to help them out, and generally mafia players are more interested in the game so they will respond to pressure.
Now obviously responding to pressure is a trait of every role in the game. But too many times there is a mafia in the lower what 10% of activity that manages to slip by because NO ONE pressures them, this is what we want to avoid. It is very difficult to find a mafia member if they don't have to talk. And they only have one motivation to talk, not to die.
On October 06 2010 05:30 Divinek wrote: though i do support what pandain is doing rng'ing amongst the inactives if that is the way you're going to vote because at least that makes sense. I mean i picked my guy because he had a long name, and look it got him posting! well he made one shitty post but still it worked
On October 06 2010 05:42 drag_ wrote: It's a hard choice for me, because there's so many layers meaning (if unclear read the Old Man and the Sea) behind every post. However, you, Mr. Kingjames seem to be trying a little too hard in my eyes to already single out a target and to shift blame elsewhere. I'm a little more skeptical of people who post a lot of accusative posts as opposed to just general conversation.
No, that's totally valid. However, I'm trying to play the game as best as I can with the little bit of information that has been revealed. Until I have more information, I think I will go with what I've got. Even if I'm wrong with what I'm saying, it invites a response so that we can learn more about what players are thinking, just like how it incited you to respond.
What I DO find interesting, however, is that you have only posted once previous to this message. Then, with this post you claim that you apparently don't like it when people try a "little too hard ... to already single out a target and to shift blame elsewhere [and are] skeptical of people who post a lot of accusative posts as opposed to just general conversation."
You came out of hiding just to point fingers and divert attention. Are you taking this game seriously enough to find a good reason to survive and win? If you are, then seriously consider what I have to say. If you can find a glaring logical error then say so. Don't insinuate with your slimy words just before the first vote and then disappear.
This just furthers my point about you. You act as if my post was all part of your multiple phase plan, before completely changing the subject to you accusing me of lying in wait and singling you out with my 'slimy words'. Once again another clear shift of blame from yourself towards me and another accusative post.
actually, actively singling out people and trying to beat them into the ground invokes quite a strong defense from the person who is being attacked, which is exactly what we need. Though I don't really like the shove it down your throat approach this early in the game, I see little wrong with taking the spot light to try and get people like you to do nothing but fan flames.
The only issue that arises from this type of play is convincing yourself too easily that the person is mafia and then trying to make connections where there aren't really any. More so the idea is to place a FoS on the person and follow up the crusade in following days when more evidence has proven itself useful.
Trying to hard is much much better than not trying enough. Because if someone is red and they're putting out alot of content we'll know it. But if someone like you is posting only once they see a chance to put light on someone, it makes it alot harder to analyze their thought process and go through and see their goals as anything other than fanning ala flames.
I don't think you're acting poorly yet, but keep an open mind that just taking jabs at people for stuff like this is extremely weak, however it is fine day one as it does, just like scum hunting invoke a response BUT it is worse because while the person you're attacking generates content, you yourself really arent. Oh my god that sentence had wayy too many commas.
On October 07 2010 20:33 XeliN wrote: I skim read, Bill has pretty much made it clear and my post is redundant. I kindof give away my role slightly but Bill is correct in how it is phrased and Bloody appears to be lying when he says "Green citizen (Town) and the followup text..
Unless Brownbear used different formating for individual PM's, but I think this is unlikely. As of now I'm going to agree with voting for Bloody based on this.
okay i really shouldn't let this post slip up under the radar.
lets pick apart individual parts to really get an idea of how blatant this shit is.
straight up admits to being lazy and this is a good cover should he make any glaring errors in interpreting the situation. Which is FINE as long as he doesn't take some concrete stance from this right, after all he hasn't thoroughly read the thread right?
Unless Brownbear used different formating for individual PM's
first of all, there are two people that sent out the fucking PMs, ask them if you want they can verify. Secondly trying to pick apart wording from a role pm is HILARIOUS because as with every mafia game the example pm is in the fucking OP
well this certainly seems to hurt with his first mini quote. He admits to barely reading the thread, and seemingly wants to JUMP at any chance to be able to vote at someone. Like first of all someone listening to bm's reasoning without discretion after he got the VI lynched = LOL secondly someone going well I DIDNT READ THE THREAD, then agreeing with someone who clearly is retarded is a terrible lapse in judgement.
This is the first solid red read i've been getting off of anyone (besides bm but he doesn't count cause he always comes off as scummy). Xelin is not sticking his neck out, xelin is not forming his own opinions, xelin is throwing a vote on someone via someone elses terrible reasoning. This is a common tactic to go 'oh it's only joking semi place holder' then never move it if no one pressures you about it.
Well guess what mother fucker you're getting pressure.
On October 10 2010 13:24 Divinek wrote: NOOOOO PANDAIN, as much as I hate your fadoodles at least you play this game with heart! I will seek to avenge you my brother
Now lets look at this motherfucker kane, I know there’s not much to look at lol
On October 06 2010 06:25 kane]deth[ wrote: Due to school, I can really only post around this time.
Just making a post to indicate my activeness, will edit or post again later with thoughts after reading the thread.
Edit: So I'm not sure what content I must post to be not lynched so I suppose I'll just give my opinion on the RNGing lynching of inactives. I think it'll be a good idea as long as we're not lynching any modkills for obvious reasons. I personally don't contribute much and might be considered inactive, but thats because of my inexperience. >: So I think that at least pressuring people to post more is a good idea.
Flat out giving us his excuse that he’s not gonna contribute much and be inactive, ie ANTI town. An argument could be made for town neutrality but that would require content from him. This is not an original idea btw, he’s literally parroting about 3 other people at this point.
On October 07 2010 10:26 kane]deth[ wrote: I have no idea what to do once again. The more I try to find suspicious people, the more I think everyone is suspicious. I suppose I'll just keep reading and see if anyone really jumps out at me ._.
Time and time I have seen new mafia players try this card out. They are confused, they don’t know what to do, this prevents them from having to put forward any of their own ideas because they know they are quite likely to slip up in ways they haven’t even thought of yet. Newbie town players are quite often FEARLESS, they know they got nothing to hide and they get into this game because they are EXCITED to get those mafia! NOT SCARED, why would you be scared if you were town?
Then he apologizes for not voting blah blah more guilty conscience fuel
On October 08 2010 09:57 kane]deth[ wrote: So I am currently voting for Misder as the proof that others have posted on him seems more reasonable than the accusations against any other player currently. The plan on getting rid of BM seems reasonable as well, but most of the analysis today has been wasted on what to do with him instead of finding Reds. Xelin seemed quick to bandwagon with BM but besides that he doesn't seem to be very suspicious. He could've just been slow on realizing how ridiculous BM's plans and not just bandwagoning for a kill.
See that bolded word there? Yeah that’s right, OTHERs so if it goes bad (which it did) then he can go WELL I DIDN’T WANNA DO IT, but you guys presented such good arguments I agreed! Not my fault! It’s deflection at the most basic level Get rid of bm blah everyone already said that. Jumping on xelin too, everyone else did that. I mean this stuff would be fine to do of his own accord, but he’s just repeating everything that’s already been said. This is KEY because he can’t be caught for spewing bullshit because none of it is his own
On October 08 2010 09:59 kane]deth[ wrote: Also note that I have no idea how these players have played in previous games, so I can't make references like that, or if something is strange or off about someone's playstyle.
More I don’t know bullshit, as in don’t expect me to do things, to be useful. Blah blah im sick of your excuses.
On October 08 2010 10:21 kane]deth[ wrote: I suppose proof was a bad word to use there. The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random.
I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile?
I love seeing this tactic. He apologizes, then puts up some shit justification and THEN he adds a question to the end of his post, as questions always take up everything you’re thinking about because you immediately try to answer that question and almost seemingly forget what you just read lol, quality double fake of the old flame fanning.
On October 09 2010 12:07 kane]deth[ wrote: I had voted for Double Lynch already, as we would be able to lynch BM.
Yuh yuh guys I agree with you don’t get angry with me im doing wut u asked. DIE Also as a little tidbit rol almost replaced this dude, look at rols only post in that entire time
On October 06 2010 16:00 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: HAI GUYS
SO U NO IM IN THIS GAME NOW SO I WILL POST LATER AFTER I READ.
Excuse for inactivity followed up by NOTHING. Sorry kane you’re not going to continue coasting by unnoticed. There’s nothing but wifom trying to draw away from if it was because of you on his list that pandain was killed or not, but one thing I do know, you’ve been doing fuck all for us and I have a pretty good idea why. You’re getting my vote, I will avenge you pandain!
So what can I conclude from this? A mostly pro-town attitude, determined to weed out mafia, and to get others to contribute. Mostly his other posts were commenting on small things like BM and such.
Hope this is what analysis is supposed to look like anyways.
SouthRawrea, I want to hear more from you. kingjames01 posted an excellent analysis a couple pages back which seems to have been lost in the sands of thread.
On October 10 2010 22:15 kingjames01 wrote: Conclusion - Casts vote on Day 1 without justification - Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon" - Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives - Implies he does not know the smurf but in the following post says he remembers who the smurf is - Accuses NukeTheBunnys of being mafia since he opposes Bill Murray - When NukeTheBunnys replies, SouthRawrea dismisses all arguments by saying it's not in an essay form. Calls it "good advice". - After Misder is lynched and revealed to be Town, SouthRawrea quickly aligns himself and makes an empty threat - SouthRawrea publicly aligns himself to Pandain citing that he was the only one with a good "raisin bran muffin" - In the same post SouthRawrea accuses drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica, and/or XeliN, BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory - Suggests that he might be a target that night - 2 hours and 15 minutes later Pandain is killed - No post since Together in one place, these posts paint SouthRawrea into a very small corner. I propose that the town takes action. I want SouthRawrea to explain himself.
I think the case against SouthRawrea of opposing a LOT of people but providing very little content is pretty strong. I'm not going to say he's my #1 suspect or whatever, but because we have so much information and so many analyses I hope to see defenses from everyone before I decide on my second vote (and maybe change my first vote too). SouthRawrea, please speak up; I know it's Thanksgiving in Canada, but I think you should at least be able to manage some defense or a quick explanation of your suspicions (others from Canada sure did).
On October 11 2010 11:47 Crisis_ wrote: I believe OpZ when he said he took a hit. Even if he's lying, it's not like it's hurting our game that much. If someone were poisoned, we'd find out the next night anyway, and figure he was lying. As for his wording, it is likely that he is a vet/bulletproof because he would have otherwise said "I was hit, but saved" or some wording like that.
As for Cynan, I think he's definitely town now, after re-looking over his posts. They seemed suspicious before, but after looking at it from a town-play perspective, it was simply standard posting.
I'm still looking forward to hearing from kane]deth[, though. There's just not enough evidence to really put him down.
And while we're at it, since we have a double lynch, I'd like to hear from drag_ and ghrur, since they too have minimal posting.
can you please read the thread. We would not find out the next night anyway, i actualy pm'd bb asking after it was brought up the first time and their death appears normal. And there doesn't have to be 3 kills, they can just keep poisoning. Don't clear someone so easily
On October 11 2010 13:16 infinitestory wrote: SouthRawrea, I want to hear more from you. kingjames01 posted an excellent analysis a couple pages back which seems to have been lost in the sands of thread.
On October 10 2010 22:15 kingjames01 wrote: Conclusion - Casts vote on Day 1 without justification - Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon" - Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives - Implies he does not know the smurf but in the following post says he remembers who the smurf is - Accuses NukeTheBunnys of being mafia since he opposes Bill Murray - When NukeTheBunnys replies, SouthRawrea dismisses all arguments by saying it's not in an essay form. Calls it "good advice". - After Misder is lynched and revealed to be Town, SouthRawrea quickly aligns himself and makes an empty threat - SouthRawrea publicly aligns himself to Pandain citing that he was the only one with a good "raisin bran muffin" - In the same post SouthRawrea accuses drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica, and/or XeliN, BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory - Suggests that he might be a target that night - 2 hours and 15 minutes later Pandain is killed - No post since Together in one place, these posts paint SouthRawrea into a very small corner. I propose that the town takes action. I want SouthRawrea to explain himself.
I think the case against SouthRawrea of opposing a LOT of people but providing very little content is pretty strong. I'm not going to say he's my #1 suspect or whatever, but because we have so much information and so many analyses I hope to see defenses from everyone before I decide on my second vote (and maybe change my first vote too). SouthRawrea, please speak up; I know it's Thanksgiving in Canada, but I think you should at least be able to manage some defense or a quick explanation of your suspicions (others from Canada sure did).
i agree. This is not an analysis we should let go unnoticed, it raises alot of very serious points. South has played enough games to know what is expected of him. In fact south is really more the type to not talk unless he's got some pressure on his inactive fanny. So vote ahoy.
On October 11 2010 07:27 Bill Murray wrote: What's the case on kane]deth[? Why are you voting him DoctorH? If I've missed something that has happened, sorry, I haven't gotten a chance to read some of it yet
doesn't post never contributes only posts when accused bad job of defending self constant excuses for inactivity when RoL took his role he also made excuses for inactivity already made an excuse to be active for our third (and probably our most important) day cycle
it was said earlier that it is very likely some mafia are hiding amongst inactives, kane]deth[s stand out to me as the most scummy and is worthy of my second vote, at least for now
alright. i'll vote for him, even if i am happy he is actually playing now. him actually playing =/= he's not scum
On October 11 2010 13:02 kane]deth[ wrote: After looking back at Divinek's posts, I understand his mentality of pressuring me now. He seems mostly pro-town, pressuring the less active people into posting and trying to find out if they're red or not.
I did not count 1 line post with no real content. A bit less then half the people have posted by now with most of the content from a small group of people(~OpZ~,Amber[LighT].Divinek and Misder and some others) If we choose to vote inactive, we currently have quite the pool to choose from
oh my god lol. I think besides just sheer probability alone there is more than likely at least one mafia member in there. Yes they are likely to be active on day1, but they are also likely to just stay above the threshold of activity to go unnoticed. When there's that many people inactive there's not much pressure to post more than that 1, 'im here post', and even then they wouldn't have to until some more of these people start posting.
SUP cynanmachine, you have the longest name so you stand out to me!
On October 02 2010 07:05 Divinek wrote: it's all if you think you can be active enough lol. Really you would probably only need to dedicate maybe an hour a day, during day cycles, to the game to be perfectly active enough.
On September 08 2010 14:01 Divinek wrote: wait the inactive player is hosting a game, i duuuuuuuunno. Is artanis active enough to compensate or something
So yeah, from early on you can tell he has a dislike for inactives. So how does he deal with this? He likes to pressure people to talk by voting for them or otherwise.
On October 06 2010 01:47 drag_ wrote: Hi guys, I'm generally going to be posting around this time as it fits my time zone/schedule better
I don't really understand the point of voting inactives off? I'm new at this game, but surely that just makes it really easy for the mafia to avoid getting voted off for the first few rounds. Unless they're just really lazy...
the idea is to not truly hang someone that has barely posted. Put to pressure someone with the threat of killing them should they not speak up.
You are correct we NEVER get a mafia by killing someone that doesn't talk. This is because mafia have their buddies to help them out, and generally mafia players are more interested in the game so they will respond to pressure.
Now obviously responding to pressure is a trait of every role in the game. But too many times there is a mafia in the lower what 10% of activity that manages to slip by because NO ONE pressures them, this is what we want to avoid. It is very difficult to find a mafia member if they don't have to talk. And they only have one motivation to talk, not to die.
On October 06 2010 05:30 Divinek wrote: though i do support what pandain is doing rng'ing amongst the inactives if that is the way you're going to vote because at least that makes sense. I mean i picked my guy because he had a long name, and look it got him posting! well he made one shitty post but still it worked
On October 06 2010 05:42 drag_ wrote: It's a hard choice for me, because there's so many layers meaning (if unclear read the Old Man and the Sea) behind every post. However, you, Mr. Kingjames seem to be trying a little too hard in my eyes to already single out a target and to shift blame elsewhere. I'm a little more skeptical of people who post a lot of accusative posts as opposed to just general conversation.
No, that's totally valid. However, I'm trying to play the game as best as I can with the little bit of information that has been revealed. Until I have more information, I think I will go with what I've got. Even if I'm wrong with what I'm saying, it invites a response so that we can learn more about what players are thinking, just like how it incited you to respond.
What I DO find interesting, however, is that you have only posted once previous to this message. Then, with this post you claim that you apparently don't like it when people try a "little too hard ... to already single out a target and to shift blame elsewhere [and are] skeptical of people who post a lot of accusative posts as opposed to just general conversation."
You came out of hiding just to point fingers and divert attention. Are you taking this game seriously enough to find a good reason to survive and win? If you are, then seriously consider what I have to say. If you can find a glaring logical error then say so. Don't insinuate with your slimy words just before the first vote and then disappear.
This just furthers my point about you. You act as if my post was all part of your multiple phase plan, before completely changing the subject to you accusing me of lying in wait and singling you out with my 'slimy words'. Once again another clear shift of blame from yourself towards me and another accusative post.
actually, actively singling out people and trying to beat them into the ground invokes quite a strong defense from the person who is being attacked, which is exactly what we need. Though I don't really like the shove it down your throat approach this early in the game, I see little wrong with taking the spot light to try and get people like you to do nothing but fan flames.
The only issue that arises from this type of play is convincing yourself too easily that the person is mafia and then trying to make connections where there aren't really any. More so the idea is to place a FoS on the person and follow up the crusade in following days when more evidence has proven itself useful.
Trying to hard is much much better than not trying enough. Because if someone is red and they're putting out alot of content we'll know it. But if someone like you is posting only once they see a chance to put light on someone, it makes it alot harder to analyze their thought process and go through and see their goals as anything other than fanning ala flames.
I don't think you're acting poorly yet, but keep an open mind that just taking jabs at people for stuff like this is extremely weak, however it is fine day one as it does, just like scum hunting invoke a response BUT it is worse because while the person you're attacking generates content, you yourself really arent. Oh my god that sentence had wayy too many commas.
On October 07 2010 20:33 XeliN wrote: I skim read, Bill has pretty much made it clear and my post is redundant. I kindof give away my role slightly but Bill is correct in how it is phrased and Bloody appears to be lying when he says "Green citizen (Town) and the followup text..
Unless Brownbear used different formating for individual PM's, but I think this is unlikely. As of now I'm going to agree with voting for Bloody based on this.
okay i really shouldn't let this post slip up under the radar.
lets pick apart individual parts to really get an idea of how blatant this shit is.
straight up admits to being lazy and this is a good cover should he make any glaring errors in interpreting the situation. Which is FINE as long as he doesn't take some concrete stance from this right, after all he hasn't thoroughly read the thread right?
Unless Brownbear used different formating for individual PM's
first of all, there are two people that sent out the fucking PMs, ask them if you want they can verify. Secondly trying to pick apart wording from a role pm is HILARIOUS because as with every mafia game the example pm is in the fucking OP
well this certainly seems to hurt with his first mini quote. He admits to barely reading the thread, and seemingly wants to JUMP at any chance to be able to vote at someone. Like first of all someone listening to bm's reasoning without discretion after he got the VI lynched = LOL secondly someone going well I DIDNT READ THE THREAD, then agreeing with someone who clearly is retarded is a terrible lapse in judgement.
This is the first solid red read i've been getting off of anyone (besides bm but he doesn't count cause he always comes off as scummy). Xelin is not sticking his neck out, xelin is not forming his own opinions, xelin is throwing a vote on someone via someone elses terrible reasoning. This is a common tactic to go 'oh it's only joking semi place holder' then never move it if no one pressures you about it.
Well guess what mother fucker you're getting pressure.
On October 10 2010 13:24 Divinek wrote: NOOOOO PANDAIN, as much as I hate your fadoodles at least you play this game with heart! I will seek to avenge you my brother
Now lets look at this motherfucker kane, I know there’s not much to look at lol
On October 06 2010 06:25 kane]deth[ wrote: Due to school, I can really only post around this time.
Just making a post to indicate my activeness, will edit or post again later with thoughts after reading the thread.
Edit: So I'm not sure what content I must post to be not lynched so I suppose I'll just give my opinion on the RNGing lynching of inactives. I think it'll be a good idea as long as we're not lynching any modkills for obvious reasons. I personally don't contribute much and might be considered inactive, but thats because of my inexperience. >: So I think that at least pressuring people to post more is a good idea.
Flat out giving us his excuse that he’s not gonna contribute much and be inactive, ie ANTI town. An argument could be made for town neutrality but that would require content from him. This is not an original idea btw, he’s literally parroting about 3 other people at this point.
On October 07 2010 10:26 kane]deth[ wrote: I have no idea what to do once again. The more I try to find suspicious people, the more I think everyone is suspicious. I suppose I'll just keep reading and see if anyone really jumps out at me ._.
Time and time I have seen new mafia players try this card out. They are confused, they don’t know what to do, this prevents them from having to put forward any of their own ideas because they know they are quite likely to slip up in ways they haven’t even thought of yet. Newbie town players are quite often FEARLESS, they know they got nothing to hide and they get into this game because they are EXCITED to get those mafia! NOT SCARED, why would you be scared if you were town?
Then he apologizes for not voting blah blah more guilty conscience fuel
On October 08 2010 09:57 kane]deth[ wrote: So I am currently voting for Misder as the proof that others have posted on him seems more reasonable than the accusations against any other player currently. The plan on getting rid of BM seems reasonable as well, but most of the analysis today has been wasted on what to do with him instead of finding Reds. Xelin seemed quick to bandwagon with BM but besides that he doesn't seem to be very suspicious. He could've just been slow on realizing how ridiculous BM's plans and not just bandwagoning for a kill.
See that bolded word there? Yeah that’s right, OTHERs so if it goes bad (which it did) then he can go WELL I DIDN’T WANNA DO IT, but you guys presented such good arguments I agreed! Not my fault! It’s deflection at the most basic level Get rid of bm blah everyone already said that. Jumping on xelin too, everyone else did that. I mean this stuff would be fine to do of his own accord, but he’s just repeating everything that’s already been said. This is KEY because he can’t be caught for spewing bullshit because none of it is his own
On October 08 2010 09:59 kane]deth[ wrote: Also note that I have no idea how these players have played in previous games, so I can't make references like that, or if something is strange or off about someone's playstyle.
More I don’t know bullshit, as in don’t expect me to do things, to be useful. Blah blah im sick of your excuses.
On October 08 2010 10:21 kane]deth[ wrote: I suppose proof was a bad word to use there. The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random.
I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile?
I love seeing this tactic. He apologizes, then puts up some shit justification and THEN he adds a question to the end of his post, as questions always take up everything you’re thinking about because you immediately try to answer that question and almost seemingly forget what you just read lol, quality double fake of the old flame fanning.
On October 09 2010 12:07 kane]deth[ wrote: I had voted for Double Lynch already, as we would be able to lynch BM.
Yuh yuh guys I agree with you don’t get angry with me im doing wut u asked. DIE Also as a little tidbit rol almost replaced this dude, look at rols only post in that entire time
On October 06 2010 16:00 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: HAI GUYS
SO U NO IM IN THIS GAME NOW SO I WILL POST LATER AFTER I READ.
Excuse for inactivity followed up by NOTHING. Sorry kane you’re not going to continue coasting by unnoticed. There’s nothing but wifom trying to draw away from if it was because of you on his list that pandain was killed or not, but one thing I do know, you’ve been doing fuck all for us and I have a pretty good idea why. You’re getting my vote, I will avenge you pandain!
So what can I conclude from this? A mostly pro-town attitude, determined to weed out mafia, and to get others to contribute. Mostly his other posts were commenting on small things like BM and such.
Hope this is what analysis is supposed to look like anyways.
Actually, THERE IS NO WAY I'M VOTING KANE]DETH[ right now. Reason: I do not see him making this play as mafia. If he did analysis on someone, would he conclude town? If he was mafia, he would want to "Scumhunt", "find a red", and then say lynch this dude. If he was mafia, he would know who was green/blue and not mafia through deductive reasoning, and wouldn't have the balls to make this play imo.
However, I want to raise the issue of Double Lynch again. Amber[LighT], SiNiquity and I expressed our doubts about voting to exercise our right to Double Lynch. Instead we were met with assurances that we would gather enough information before the vote to justify using it.
Okay... So, what information did we get? Seriously, we have less than a day left and we're going to be lynching two players, quite possibly two innocents. What did we learn? What is our plan? So far all I've heard is that we can learn from a Medic save, a Detective role check, the lynch and any mafia hits.
DID WE ACTUALLY LEARN ANYTHING??? The only new information is - Misder was Green (fact) and - ~OpZ~ claimed to be hit (unconfirmed).
On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote: Can someone explain to me why we voted for a double lynch? I could have sworn we were going to get this insane amount of information, yet from what it seems we're still running around with our heads cut off.
Like what the hell happened yesterday? The day seemed pretty cut and dry. Vote Xelin and then see if mafia touches BM. Was this plan not sound? Then someone suggested a double lynch. I wasn't keen on the idea of doing this, and I vocally said going for a double lynch so early was a terrible idea.
So now we didn't lynch Xelin, but instead went for someone who wasn't even being discussed until the last 12 hours of the day (since I checked frequently up until then). What seems to be the plan? Where does Xelin sit on the list? BM? Did we just forget about them.
For the second lynch, you guys can figure it out. You wanted 2, now start investigating. I'm going to just vote for Xelin again since the double lynch plan was more sound with Xelin dying yesterday and BM dying today.
I'm kinda in his boat right now... for the double lynch I mean. It doesn't seem like we have any solid suspects, although I don't share his "You guys shat in your bed, so now you gotta lie in it" mentality. So instead of whining, I'm gonna do some analysis...
I really disagree with caring about Opz claim... there's no reason to atm... he's been pretty vocal about everything, so if he's red then it will eventually be his downfall and hopefully lead to his comrades... I'm treating him as town, but with a close watch...
On October 10 2010 09:04 Pandain wrote: Mmmm in case I die I leave to you my last thoughts: 3. Bill Murray 5. SouthRawrea 6. Amber[LighT] 8. Divinek-albeit I do have suscpcions 10.SINiquity 11.XeliN 12.kane]deth[ 13.~OpZ~ 14.DoctorHelvetica 15.infinitestory 17.Happy.fairytail BloodyC0bbler 18.NukeTheBunnys 19.Crisis_ 20.drag_ 21.CynanMachae :p 22.meeple 23.kingjames01 24.ghrur
Pandain left us his list... not saying its right, and it very well might not be... but we know its genuine town-aligned and not there to lead us down some wrong track.
I'm not sure why he felt his life was in danger... but being a prominent player I'm sure had something to do with it...
Yraghhh... alright... I'll do an analysis on Crisis_ and why I think he's probably mafia but for now I need to play euchre and drink beer with my opa... I was planning on doing the analysis now... but hell I'm not gonna turn that down...
Do not disregard ~OpZ~'s claim! I believe his claim. Based on his play thus far, I have no reason to doubt him. How can we make it safe for him to explain what happened? We need the information. It's just about the only new piece of information that we can use to make a good decision tonight.
Finally, the other thing that people keep saying is that we can use the second lynch to get rid of Bill Murray. Do you guys even realize that the Double Lynch vote just barely passed with the minimum necessary amount of votes? Did you guys notice that Bill Murray cast one of those votes? If he knew he was going to be lynched, why would he support it? He could have retracted his vote and he'd be safe. Does he want to be lynched? Maybe there really is another Village Idiot in the game. It would be consistent with the way he's played this game. DO NOT LYNCH BILL MURRAY WITHOUT A DETECTIVE CHECK.
I apologize if I'm out of line but it's so frustrating when I put in so much time and effort into playing my first game and then it gets all screwed up with a modkilled Blue.
Don't worry dude I'm really frustrated. I don't understand how you could be completely (or just about completely) inactive when you have such a power role for the town. He should have been creating a lot of the town discussion and pointing fingers, but sometimes things don't work out as they should, so we move on.
I'm putting my votes on Xelin and Opz, not because I want them to be lynched, but because I don't want to be modkilled. I expressed my frustration over the double lynch and I'm not going to throw more townies under a bus, as some magic invisible hand has been doing this game. It's actually ridiculous how in THREE day cycles the discussion has literally spun from valid and sound choices to these obscure call-out votes.
I sense a lot of sheep in this game, and if you're listening to the loud mouth players you're already losing the game for us.
We shouldn't lynch Bill Murray. I am highly highly doubtful that he is scum and can't imagine why anyone would vote for him at this point. If he is anti-town, he's VI
On October 11 2010 13:02 kane]deth[ wrote: After looking back at Divinek's posts, I understand his mentality of pressuring me now. He seems mostly pro-town, pressuring the less active people into posting and trying to find out if they're red or not.
I did not count 1 line post with no real content. A bit less then half the people have posted by now with most of the content from a small group of people(~OpZ~,Amber[LighT].Divinek and Misder and some others) If we choose to vote inactive, we currently have quite the pool to choose from
oh my god lol. I think besides just sheer probability alone there is more than likely at least one mafia member in there. Yes they are likely to be active on day1, but they are also likely to just stay above the threshold of activity to go unnoticed. When there's that many people inactive there's not much pressure to post more than that 1, 'im here post', and even then they wouldn't have to until some more of these people start posting.
SUP cynanmachine, you have the longest name so you stand out to me!
On October 02 2010 07:05 Divinek wrote: it's all if you think you can be active enough lol. Really you would probably only need to dedicate maybe an hour a day, during day cycles, to the game to be perfectly active enough.
On September 08 2010 14:01 Divinek wrote: wait the inactive player is hosting a game, i duuuuuuuunno. Is artanis active enough to compensate or something
So yeah, from early on you can tell he has a dislike for inactives. So how does he deal with this? He likes to pressure people to talk by voting for them or otherwise.
On October 06 2010 01:47 drag_ wrote: Hi guys, I'm generally going to be posting around this time as it fits my time zone/schedule better
I don't really understand the point of voting inactives off? I'm new at this game, but surely that just makes it really easy for the mafia to avoid getting voted off for the first few rounds. Unless they're just really lazy...
the idea is to not truly hang someone that has barely posted. Put to pressure someone with the threat of killing them should they not speak up.
You are correct we NEVER get a mafia by killing someone that doesn't talk. This is because mafia have their buddies to help them out, and generally mafia players are more interested in the game so they will respond to pressure.
Now obviously responding to pressure is a trait of every role in the game. But too many times there is a mafia in the lower what 10% of activity that manages to slip by because NO ONE pressures them, this is what we want to avoid. It is very difficult to find a mafia member if they don't have to talk. And they only have one motivation to talk, not to die.
On October 06 2010 05:30 Divinek wrote: though i do support what pandain is doing rng'ing amongst the inactives if that is the way you're going to vote because at least that makes sense. I mean i picked my guy because he had a long name, and look it got him posting! well he made one shitty post but still it worked
On October 06 2010 05:42 drag_ wrote: It's a hard choice for me, because there's so many layers meaning (if unclear read the Old Man and the Sea) behind every post. However, you, Mr. Kingjames seem to be trying a little too hard in my eyes to already single out a target and to shift blame elsewhere. I'm a little more skeptical of people who post a lot of accusative posts as opposed to just general conversation.
No, that's totally valid. However, I'm trying to play the game as best as I can with the little bit of information that has been revealed. Until I have more information, I think I will go with what I've got. Even if I'm wrong with what I'm saying, it invites a response so that we can learn more about what players are thinking, just like how it incited you to respond.
What I DO find interesting, however, is that you have only posted once previous to this message. Then, with this post you claim that you apparently don't like it when people try a "little too hard ... to already single out a target and to shift blame elsewhere [and are] skeptical of people who post a lot of accusative posts as opposed to just general conversation."
You came out of hiding just to point fingers and divert attention. Are you taking this game seriously enough to find a good reason to survive and win? If you are, then seriously consider what I have to say. If you can find a glaring logical error then say so. Don't insinuate with your slimy words just before the first vote and then disappear.
This just furthers my point about you. You act as if my post was all part of your multiple phase plan, before completely changing the subject to you accusing me of lying in wait and singling you out with my 'slimy words'. Once again another clear shift of blame from yourself towards me and another accusative post.
actually, actively singling out people and trying to beat them into the ground invokes quite a strong defense from the person who is being attacked, which is exactly what we need. Though I don't really like the shove it down your throat approach this early in the game, I see little wrong with taking the spot light to try and get people like you to do nothing but fan flames.
The only issue that arises from this type of play is convincing yourself too easily that the person is mafia and then trying to make connections where there aren't really any. More so the idea is to place a FoS on the person and follow up the crusade in following days when more evidence has proven itself useful.
Trying to hard is much much better than not trying enough. Because if someone is red and they're putting out alot of content we'll know it. But if someone like you is posting only once they see a chance to put light on someone, it makes it alot harder to analyze their thought process and go through and see their goals as anything other than fanning ala flames.
I don't think you're acting poorly yet, but keep an open mind that just taking jabs at people for stuff like this is extremely weak, however it is fine day one as it does, just like scum hunting invoke a response BUT it is worse because while the person you're attacking generates content, you yourself really arent. Oh my god that sentence had wayy too many commas.
On October 07 2010 20:33 XeliN wrote: I skim read, Bill has pretty much made it clear and my post is redundant. I kindof give away my role slightly but Bill is correct in how it is phrased and Bloody appears to be lying when he says "Green citizen (Town) and the followup text..
Unless Brownbear used different formating for individual PM's, but I think this is unlikely. As of now I'm going to agree with voting for Bloody based on this.
okay i really shouldn't let this post slip up under the radar.
lets pick apart individual parts to really get an idea of how blatant this shit is.
straight up admits to being lazy and this is a good cover should he make any glaring errors in interpreting the situation. Which is FINE as long as he doesn't take some concrete stance from this right, after all he hasn't thoroughly read the thread right?
Unless Brownbear used different formating for individual PM's
first of all, there are two people that sent out the fucking PMs, ask them if you want they can verify. Secondly trying to pick apart wording from a role pm is HILARIOUS because as with every mafia game the example pm is in the fucking OP
well this certainly seems to hurt with his first mini quote. He admits to barely reading the thread, and seemingly wants to JUMP at any chance to be able to vote at someone. Like first of all someone listening to bm's reasoning without discretion after he got the VI lynched = LOL secondly someone going well I DIDNT READ THE THREAD, then agreeing with someone who clearly is retarded is a terrible lapse in judgement.
This is the first solid red read i've been getting off of anyone (besides bm but he doesn't count cause he always comes off as scummy). Xelin is not sticking his neck out, xelin is not forming his own opinions, xelin is throwing a vote on someone via someone elses terrible reasoning. This is a common tactic to go 'oh it's only joking semi place holder' then never move it if no one pressures you about it.
Well guess what mother fucker you're getting pressure.
On October 10 2010 13:24 Divinek wrote: NOOOOO PANDAIN, as much as I hate your fadoodles at least you play this game with heart! I will seek to avenge you my brother
Now lets look at this motherfucker kane, I know there’s not much to look at lol
On October 06 2010 06:25 kane]deth[ wrote: Due to school, I can really only post around this time.
Just making a post to indicate my activeness, will edit or post again later with thoughts after reading the thread.
Edit: So I'm not sure what content I must post to be not lynched so I suppose I'll just give my opinion on the RNGing lynching of inactives. I think it'll be a good idea as long as we're not lynching any modkills for obvious reasons. I personally don't contribute much and might be considered inactive, but thats because of my inexperience. >: So I think that at least pressuring people to post more is a good idea.
Flat out giving us his excuse that he’s not gonna contribute much and be inactive, ie ANTI town. An argument could be made for town neutrality but that would require content from him. This is not an original idea btw, he’s literally parroting about 3 other people at this point.
On October 07 2010 10:26 kane]deth[ wrote: I have no idea what to do once again. The more I try to find suspicious people, the more I think everyone is suspicious. I suppose I'll just keep reading and see if anyone really jumps out at me ._.
Time and time I have seen new mafia players try this card out. They are confused, they don’t know what to do, this prevents them from having to put forward any of their own ideas because they know they are quite likely to slip up in ways they haven’t even thought of yet. Newbie town players are quite often FEARLESS, they know they got nothing to hide and they get into this game because they are EXCITED to get those mafia! NOT SCARED, why would you be scared if you were town?
Then he apologizes for not voting blah blah more guilty conscience fuel
On October 08 2010 09:57 kane]deth[ wrote: So I am currently voting for Misder as the proof that others have posted on him seems more reasonable than the accusations against any other player currently. The plan on getting rid of BM seems reasonable as well, but most of the analysis today has been wasted on what to do with him instead of finding Reds. Xelin seemed quick to bandwagon with BM but besides that he doesn't seem to be very suspicious. He could've just been slow on realizing how ridiculous BM's plans and not just bandwagoning for a kill.
See that bolded word there? Yeah that’s right, OTHERs so if it goes bad (which it did) then he can go WELL I DIDN’T WANNA DO IT, but you guys presented such good arguments I agreed! Not my fault! It’s deflection at the most basic level Get rid of bm blah everyone already said that. Jumping on xelin too, everyone else did that. I mean this stuff would be fine to do of his own accord, but he’s just repeating everything that’s already been said. This is KEY because he can’t be caught for spewing bullshit because none of it is his own
On October 08 2010 09:59 kane]deth[ wrote: Also note that I have no idea how these players have played in previous games, so I can't make references like that, or if something is strange or off about someone's playstyle.
More I don’t know bullshit, as in don’t expect me to do things, to be useful. Blah blah im sick of your excuses.
On October 08 2010 10:21 kane]deth[ wrote: I suppose proof was a bad word to use there. The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random.
I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile?
I love seeing this tactic. He apologizes, then puts up some shit justification and THEN he adds a question to the end of his post, as questions always take up everything you’re thinking about because you immediately try to answer that question and almost seemingly forget what you just read lol, quality double fake of the old flame fanning.
On October 09 2010 12:07 kane]deth[ wrote: I had voted for Double Lynch already, as we would be able to lynch BM.
Yuh yuh guys I agree with you don’t get angry with me im doing wut u asked. DIE Also as a little tidbit rol almost replaced this dude, look at rols only post in that entire time
On October 06 2010 16:00 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: HAI GUYS
SO U NO IM IN THIS GAME NOW SO I WILL POST LATER AFTER I READ.
Excuse for inactivity followed up by NOTHING. Sorry kane you’re not going to continue coasting by unnoticed. There’s nothing but wifom trying to draw away from if it was because of you on his list that pandain was killed or not, but one thing I do know, you’ve been doing fuck all for us and I have a pretty good idea why. You’re getting my vote, I will avenge you pandain!
So what can I conclude from this? A mostly pro-town attitude, determined to weed out mafia, and to get others to contribute. Mostly his other posts were commenting on small things like BM and such.
Hope this is what analysis is supposed to look like anyways.
Actually, THERE IS NO WAY I'M VOTING KANE]DETH[ right now. Reason: I do not see him making this play as mafia. If he did analysis on someone, would he conclude town? If he was mafia, he would want to "Scumhunt", "find a red", and then say lynch this dude. If he was mafia, he would know who was green/blue and not mafia through deductive reasoning, and wouldn't have the balls to make this play imo.
rasta played a game with me where he did a big analysis on bum when bum was town and then concluded town. It's not very hard to do when you're mafia cause you're right 100% of the time lol.
So does SouthRawrea think we can't see him posting in another game? Seems stupid to not come in and defend yourself in this game since he's STILL ALIVE.
On October 10 2010 22:15 kingjames01 wrote: Okay, so after making that previous post, I went back through the thread with the intention of extraction each and every post made in-game by the players from the short list above.
I wanted to cross-reference their votes made in the other thread so that I could look for inconsistencies and patterns, complete with timelines and personal comments. I started in numerical order as dictated in the OP and I was typing this all up in a text editor but I just have to share with you something.
SouthRawrea is either a very bad Town or a very bad Mafia. Let's examine his 17 posts.
Or just addicted to minecraft and finding it hard to get engaged in this current game >.>
On October 05 2010 09:29 SouthRawrea wrote: This game:
There are several differences in this setup than regular mafia games in case you can't be bothered to read the role descriptions. 1) Detective must wait until Night 2 for investigation which is frankly not helpful as it is 1 less report overall per detective. 2) Vigilante gets their shot or bat back if they overlap with mafia. Not a huge deal as an overlap isn't that likely. 3) Godfather can fake Village Idiot. Frankly as some have stated before this may be a bit OP and is a very good reason for Vigilante to save their bat. 4) Roleblocker now cannot block someone twice in a row which make DT claiming a little more viable especially once mafia loses a KP. 5) Mafia can practically save a KP for the next day while the poisoner is still alive.
Three huge things to watch out for
1) Like stated earlier, the Vigilante must not shoot until we get a Village Idiot report as it is the only way of safely killing a potential Village Idiot/Godfather as town. 2) Mafia can continuously use poison from any point in the game and have on of their players claim hit Veteran. The mafia will then be able to unleash 3 NK at any one night from that point onwards while having 1 NK the night before the claim and 2 NK for every night in between. This can be dangerous if town is too trusting of the hit claim and/or forgets about the 3 NK. Ex: Night 2 : 1 poison 1 shot Day 2: 1 death, mafia claims hit Night 3: 1 poison 1 shot Day 3: 2 deaths Night 4 1 poison 1 shot Day 4: 2 deaths Night 5: 2 shot Day 5: 3 deaths
3) Finally in a Lylo situation with Village idiot still alive, mafia can have a joint-win with the Village Idiot by lynching him. This will result in the day ending with both the Village Idiot and the Mafia's win requirements being fulfilled. (VI gets lynched and mafia # = town #)
Comment: This post reiterates content from the OP with commentary and ways the mechanics will come into play. There is no stance taken on how Day 1's lynch should take place. Overall a very shallow post. Note that SouthRawrea advocates saving the Vigilante to use against the Village Idiot. My question is what takes preference, killing a Red or the VI?
[red] At this point it was extremely early in the game and any suggestions for a lynch would generally be pressure to get results out of people. At that point in time I wasn't quite too concerned with that. As well, it isn't useless anyhow. You see Opz's claim? His claim could very well fall under the scenario that I had provided. I just wanted it to be clear that hit claims had much less value in this game contrary to LSB's belief that Opz is most likely blue.
On October 05 2010 10:55 ~OpZ~ wrote: Anyway, no. DT if you find a red bloke, I want you to build an argument for why he is mafia. Tell us what he is/is not doing that is/is not helping to town. I want you to lay into him. Be relentless. Don't pull no fucking punches. If his mama's a tramp, I want you to let us know. Shiaaaaaaat.
So ignore this kid's advice. It's weak sauce. -___- Quiet people often get sniped by mafia toooooo. (Unless Radfield/Ace/L are playing)
Eh...Kinda got the Village idiot post. It was pretty smart thinking with Village Idiot/Mafia win....So we do gotta be careful, cuz if village idiot is down to last 3 "Hai I'm VI, lynch me!!" Mafia just have to wait for him to vote for himself. Lol.
I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie.
I'm going to assume that last part was directed to me. This kind of situation was common on the site I used to go on and made the Village Idiot all that more dangerous. This reinforces the reasoning that I had for saving the vig shot until we're sure that we've got either the idiot or the GF.
Comment: Seems to be a passive-aggressive push for the Blues to come out of hiding. The Medic should not be "one of the quiet folk" or the mafia will know who he is. The Detective has to be a "proactive townie". Again, he says to save the Vigilante but adds that the Godfather should also be considered a good hit. How do we identify the Godfather anyway? Could be well-intentioned advice; I'm not sure. Supports ~OpZ~.
Usually we consider the godfather possibility when the cop gets a town report from someone especially if this person is at least somewhat suspicious. In this point in the game there were people that hadn't posted yet (ex: Jeejee) and I didn't want them to get blue sniped if they were in fact being a quiet blue. I'd also like to clarify: Not "Supports ~Opz~" but "Supports ~Opz~'s idea"
On October 05 2010 21:48 SouthRawrea wrote: Woot no joint wins! )))
Comment: No substance. Expresses happiness over the ruling that VI cannot share wins. Consistent with above post. I was generally happy because these joint wins are so common in epicmafia >.> but yes this was a pointless post.
On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote: At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much.
We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives.
Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/
What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet.
Comment: Wants inactive players to be more active. Does not support lynching inactives this early in the game. Supports voting randoms. Is neutral to NukeTheBunnys.
I was considering NukeTheBunnys to be using a very obvious tactic and being a bad townie only in the fact that he wasn't getting anywhere with his plan. We still had people who hadn't even posted yet so in my opinion at the time lynching an inactive would waste a lynch anyways as they have the potential to be modkilled. Lynching an inactive on day 1 when there are several in the game at that point in time is usually a sign that most players haven't had a chance to post yet.
October 06 2010 05:07. (07:53 remaining Day 1) ##Vote Divinek Justification: None provided. I don't understand this vote. I just checked and SouthRawrea is the only other person to have voted for Divinek including retracted votes. Was Divinek chosen randomly, then? Or is there some other reason?
I was of the accord that we should RNG a few times and conduct several bandwagons rather than lynching an inactive. This would help clarify for later game purposes whether there was a connection between certain players based on the bandwagons they participated in. Of course I wasn't going to say this because it would make it more obvious that I was expecting results from this.
On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote: At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much.
We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives.
Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/
What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet.
you're resorting to random voting with 6 hours left in the day? -_-;;;;;;;; cord worm
i dont understand the system you're proposing, should everyone roll a random number? that'd be retarded, should everyone do it and then the person who gets the most similar RNGS be lynched? that's also bad because mafia can manipulate that. Even trying to scum hunt on very little information is alot better than being able to vote WITHOUT having to justify it, this is the way a scum would want to vote.
we get NOTHING from today if everyone just RNG's their vote. But if you have to justify what you're doing (all be it most people would be like ' he's inactive lols' ) it gives you something to go off of, something to compare to future instances, some SUBSTANCE.
If people are making small shitty posts to justify their votes, and then not removing them when the person is like HEY GUYS im here, and we should do this this and this. Then they look bad. But if they do this with your system you can just go LOL SRY I RNG'D. Or are you gonna re rng everytime someone speaks up? -___-
it's a terrible system
I know your play from many games south so i wont try to go too insane from one little thing like this but cmon man.
That's not how RNG works usually. A couple people will RNG rolls and the town will bandwagon . Derp. Sorry my head wasn't all there when I was typing up that post.
Comment: Divinek points out that SouthRawrea does not justify his vote and assumes it was random. SouthRawrea says that random votes start bandwagons.
I was basically justifying the voting system I was trying to advocate. I don't see why you included this.
On October 06 2010 11:20 SouthRawrea wrote: It's funny because I remember who pro is and I'm going to leave pro be.
Comment: Indicates he does know the smurf's aka. I don't understand.
I would've done this all in PMs but basically I had forgotten who Pro was until the second post because I had just remembered. I remember distinctly that this would probably create confusion because I left out the word "now" but I didn't feel it was necessary to make another post just to correct a short post that had nothing to do with the actual game at hand.
October 06 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Day 1) Protactinium is lynched. Comment: The day finishes and he never switched his vote from Divinek who he "randomly" chose.
At that point in time the votes were widely spread and I came back that day with a couple hours left and I realized changing my vote wouldn't do anything so I stuck with Divinek but with no intent to lynch him as it was practically impossible at this point. This is not to say that I had any particular intent to lynch him to begin with. (Online dice were used).
On October 09 2010 07:00 SouthRawrea wrote: AH forgot about this game totally with getting my haircut and preparing for other stuff and what not :/. Strangely enough I find myself agreeing with BM's take on Happy.fairytail and BC. I'm going to completely ignore the Role PM controversy (with the whole TOWN vs CITIZEN thing) as even if it wasn't a miscommunication, in my opinion BM comes out on top simply because it is slightly suspicious. I would like to say this, I've been pretty inactive this day but I find that Misder's posts during day 1 have been consistent with not wanting to lynch without reasons. Eventually he gradually admits that he wouldn't want to lynch an inactive but votes for Xelin and then switches to Opz because he was inactive as well. This to me screams timid town role behaviour rather than mafia simply because his votes aren't quite bandwagonesque. In this case I believe that NuketheBunnys if mafia.
On October 08 2010 00:12 NukeTheBunnys wrote: Wow spam much.
Right now I'm thinking Bill is either A. a second village idiot, or B. mafia trying to hide behind the fear of a second village idiot. Its very tempting to vote for him regardless just to get the spam to stop. I really don't understand why he is bragging about convincing everyone(myself included) to vote for the village idiot. Hurrr I made us lose on the first day Im a good player Hurrrrrrrr. It's pretty unlikely for there to be a second village idiot so it seems that NuketheBunnys is implicitly stating that Bill is mafia. The reason why I picked this out is because one of the easiest posts for mafia to make that seems like content is giving an opinion on someone's role. (ex: He just seems like mafia to me.
As for the role PM's I think people are just trying to confuse everyone. Even if some one is helping brown bear host, I seriously doubt that he would send out half the role PMs, and some one else would send out the other half. I think anyone(read: Opz) claiming that their PM was not sent by brownbear is very suspicious. Im not going to get nitpicking about the town/townie distinction as they are commonly interchangeable.
He's unclear here about who these people are that are trying to confuse "everyone". However he seems to unknowingly (?) agree with Bill Murray that BloodyC0bbler's PM was highly suspicious yet clearly as shown elsewhere, he dislikes the way Bill Murray comes about with this information (ex:spam) which is highly understandable.
My next step is to go reread the past 7 pages completely ignoring everything Bill said and see if it makes any more sense. Then again maybe I should go back and point out the inconsistencies in his spam as Im sure I could find quite a few Most likely an empty promise to read back but what troubles me is the fact that he's going to ignore Bill Murray's posts even though he thinks that Bill Murray is either VI or Mafia. If he was either of these would someone rather not do a post analysis? This is strange behaviour as the entire goal of mafia is to lynch the mafia but he says that he MIGHT go back and read BM's posts. Just an inconsistency I found that once again points to wanting to fit in with the town and perhaps get by to the next day undetected.
Comment: Explains inactivity. Will ignore PM controversy. However, the PM controversy makes BC look suspicious. Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives on Day 1. Inconsistent with above. Claims NukeThe Bunnys is mafia. I just read the rest of the post and his logic for this claim very tenuous. Nuke is mafia because he opposes Bill Murray. Also, insinuates that NukeTheBunnys makes "empty promises". Opposes Happy.fairytail/BloodyC0bbler. Supports Bill Murray. Supports Misder. Opposes NukeTheBunnys.
You read this wrong. I did not justify Misder's choice. I merely stated that he was looking a bit on the pro-town side as his posts were being consistent. Does that mean I said his posts were correct? No. It means he isn't changing his mind with every post. Again with the "supports this player thing". NO. It doesn't mean I support the player. I supported the validity of Bill Murray's information obtained from his tactic, I gave a slight defense for Misder and I was stating that NuketheBunnys had a mafia-like playstyle which I later was tempted to retract due to his unconclusive but existant analysis.
October 09 2010 07:01. (05:59 remaining Day 2) ##Vote NukeTheBunnys Justification: NukeTheBunnys opposed Bill Murray
[red] This is not how summarizing works. I was suspicious of his behaviour and why he was choosing not analyze Bill Murray while he clearly thought Billy Murray was VI or Mafia.
October 09 2010 07:27. (05:33 remaining Day 2) ##Vote Double Lynch Justification: None provided
Double Lynches are situational and in games usually by Day 3, the town has gathered enough information that they have at least a handful of suspects in mind especially if there is a claim/counterclaim situation at hand.
On October 09 2010 08:31 SouthRawrea wrote: I was actually pleased that NuketheBunnys made that post and then I read it. >.> Think of analysis like an English essay. The point of it is not to summarize but to prove a point. :/ A couple ways to improve this is to perhaps cut out some one liners or group them all together and provide your point for them altogether. An example of what you could've done is instead of saying "buddies up with xelin even more", you could've tried to indicate a connection between the two and went over a handful of their posts in relation to each other (When doing this just look to see if there is anything that shows an obvious connection between the two). If this is horrible advice I'm sorry but I'm pretty sure that it's good advice . You did provide a conclusion at the end which was essential but it'd be nice if you could link it all together.
Comment: Here SouthRawrea supports NukeTheBunnys post? Then proceeds to disparage his arguments because they do not prove a point? Will investigate more. Okay, I just looked up the post. It is a very detailed look into Bill Murray's behaviour in the game. I think that the evidence provided paints a very convincing picture. Why does SouthRawrea not comment on the validity of the arguments rather than the structure of the post? Also, why doesn't he quote this post so we know what he's talking about? Finally, he doesn't retract his earlier insult about delivering on "empty promises". Opposes NukeTheBunnys.
[red] No. The problem here is that he provides a weak argument without many explanatory points to back it up. What he does is summarize Bill Murray's posts and then magically reach a conclusion.
On October 09 2010 08:46 SouthRawrea wrote: I can answer #1 for you Kingjames: Usually it's safer to maintain a worst case scenario mindset until we get a bit more insight into whether or not there is a roleblocker. (ex: roleblocked claim)
Comment: This was an answer to my question about why Pandain assumes the presence of the RoleBlocker. Satisfactory and illuminating. Thank you very much
October 09 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Day 2) Misder is lynched.
On October 10 2010 05:58 SouthRawrea wrote: Hey people that voted Misder, I'm checking you out.
Comment: Empty and completely unnecessary threat. I'm sure anyone who is innocent will do the same thing. Supports Misder (who is dead). It's happening, no worries. You've got me sidetracked for the moment though.
On October 10 2010 10:45 SouthRawrea wrote: Just because I'm not allowed to PM, I'd like to express my wish to PM Pandain expressedly. PANDAIN I WANT TO PM YOU.
Just a suggestion: Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods might be a good idea.
People who voted for lynching Misder in order of best reasons: Pandain - Pretty well done analysis on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38 ~OpZ~ -For the unexplained vote Misder put on ~OpZ~ infinitestory - Actually makes a post explaining why he though Misder was suspicious though I can't see why he'd vote for him in particular because he had plenty of other suspects at the time. DoctorHelvetica - No good reason. He was tunneling Siniquity the entire time and gave no real reason for Misder. LSB - He basically goes to pandain "who know you might be right" and votes Misder... drag_ - Absolutely nothing. A total of 10 posts. There almost seem to be 12 posts but 2 of those are from a link of siniquity's
This was just me scanning over the posts and making it public who I'm going to examine. I would start with drag_ but because he has so little posts I thinking I'll examine him and LSB (as JeeJee didn't make a single post). Most likely within the same day I will go over DoctorHelvetica and/or Xelin because this particular post caught my eye. It just seems like a post that could be reduced to under 10 words and has no explanation within it and only an elongated 1 point opinion. I know I've been guilty of this to some degree except without just providing opinion. However it seems like major "slipping under the radar" to me.
On October 08 2010 17:07 XeliN wrote: Dr claiming there is nothing of value whatsoever to be gleaned from the earlier PM discussions due to the fact it has now been revealed that 2 types were sent is false imo. Using them as a basis for argument may have flaws but the idea that they lack any merit whatsoever is not true.
In case of my death tonight Suspects: Xelin, DrHelvetica, BloodC0bbler and at least 2 of the newer players including KingJames, drag_ and infinitestory.
Comment: Publicly states he wants to break the rules. Implies that he does not have the ability to PM. I don't understand the "Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods". Lists the players who voted for Misder during the previous day and their justifications. Only provides a link to Pandain and summarizes the rest in his own words. Of the 6 voters, only Pandain has a good reason apparently. Expresses intent to investigate drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica and/or XeliN. Will keep an eye out for this. For good measure, he accuses (without justification) BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory. Suggests that he might die overnight. Supports Pandain. Opposes drag_. Opposes LSB. Opposes DoctorHelvetica. and/or Opposes XeliN. Opposes BloodyC0bbler. Opposes kingjames01. Opposes infinitestory.
Haha the entire PM thing has to do with a secret friendship Pandain and I share . I don't ever go as far to break the rules though despite the fact that I have a couple people here on MSN. Pandain had a clearcut analysis which was better than the reasons most other players had. I was merely stating the players I did not hold in my regard as town-like as justification for a future analysis.
On October 10 2010 10:53 SouthRawrea wrote: :D I'm glad you could consolidate your posts. No hard feelings? I actually think I screwed the ctrl+f thing that one time while searching. It began the search part way through. Sorry about that. It wasa genuine mistake. I was going back through what I searched through just to make sure everything was right and yeah you did express suspicion. I'm in no way clearing you though .
Comment: I think he is referring to DoctorHelvetica's response. Very slimy and takes back his earlier statement about DrH's lack of justification for voting Misder. This seems suspicious. Is neutral to DoctorHelvetica. If you've played in games with me you'd realized that I double post... ALOT. I've also made several mistakes in large posts that I made so I make it a habit to check back on things after I post to make sure that I haven't made a mistake. I came back to post on my part about DrH and I read his post which basically made it easier for me
On October 08 2010 04:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Also I need to put pressure on Misder again.
You're not getting away with being inactive this time buddy. Where is the evidence for your original accusations? Why did you fingerpoint and run away? Why did you fingerpoint, call out other players for not backing up their accusations, then go inactive without backing up your accusations?
I might have changed my vote to Xelin for the time being but you're still under fire here.
Glad to.
Okay, First of all, I did a quick read through. There is no Opz - Misder connection.
On October 06 2010 09:22 Misder wrote: Actually, I’m just going to vote ~Opz~ right now instead of XeliN, just because of this tiny suspicion. I don’t know if I truly believe in that he is mafia, but I think he has a better chance at being mafia than XeliN.
On October 05 2010 12:47 ~OpZ~ wrote: I'd rather you post your suspects now Mr. Misder?
What if mafia slay you at night?
=/
I think I rather wait. First, my suspicions aren't really big; they could be comepletely wrong, and I don't really have strong evidence. Plus, I'm still looking at different play styles from previous games. Second, this way, the mafia doesn't know whether I'm right or wrong, so if they really are scared, they're going to have to kill me If you guys really want, I'll post my suspicions, maybe to generate discussion or something on day 1. Which reminds me, how do we decide which inactive to lynch?
I made this mistake last game, I fingerpointed when I was mafia. The problem was that I didn't have that good of an argument to start off with. I just did a "I'm pretty sure that they are mafia"
Misder, can you elaborate for us who do you think is scummy?
I know you mentioned Infun, but your analysis was shaky and wrong.
On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote: I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I'm such a good target for the mafia to start a bandwagon. I don't know if this is a good thing that the town is not impulsive or a bad thing that the town doesn't really like to do analysis... (well ghrur did, and i think he makes good points). And pretty much yeah, I took a shot in the dark, and I think I pretty much shot myself instead.
Well this is what I had a while ago, but I never posted
"~Opz~
Ok, I’m looking at him from the perspective of Mafia XXX, the most recent normal game. In this game ~Opz~ was tracker. I guess this isn’t the most amazing analysis, and most people also act differently from a green townie and a blue, but I’ll try.
In day 1, as a blue ~Opz~ told the town what to do, coming up with plans, participating in the actual crux of what was going on.
On August 07 2010 02:26 ~OpZ~ wrote: Okay. Vigi should claim Day 2 IMO because he can't use his night kill til night 2. The vigi can openly suggest his target, meds protect target. If 2 people die that night, and dude is protected from a hit then BAM, we have a huge circle formed with meds confirming the vigi, DT's can openly claim to vigi or use a mouth, Bus Driver should stay hidden I feel...except to maybe the meds.
And if it is a mafia ploy? We'd have netted two mafia. The fake vigi claimer, and the dude who was hit by the vigi because he would have to have been protected. All medics should protect the guy getting vigi'd so they get the protection message, or mafia would have to use all KP to stop the plan, GIVING us quite a few more days...
He never actually contributes in this game on Day 1, just blames all of the newcomers."
So my analysis of him before was when he was a blue role, pretty much irrelevant... I didn't look back at games even older, when I should have. When I actually looked at him more in dept than my intuition and one day of the game where he was blue, I've come to a conclusion that ~Opz~ is most likely town.
This is his quote from Mafia XXIII where he was actually townie.
On July 18 2010 15:34 ~OpZ~ wrote:
On July 18 2010 08:12 Jayme wrote:
On July 18 2010 08:03 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: RNG lynch is dumb because you have more of a chance to land on a townie, and then he could be a helpful townie.
if we lynch an inactive we're killing someone who probably would not have helped us anyway
however, i don't want to lynch someone that would just get modkilled since that's obviously a waste.
Bill, how many votes can someone miss before they get zapped?
As far as I know they can't miss any votes at all.
We have more of a chance to land on a townie with any day 1 method we choose simply due to the fact that there are 24 townies and 6 mafia...there is no way of avoiding this. As a matter of fact I would say we have a better chance of hitting a good red player through RNG because I mean...who's to say that this "good townie" isn't just a red being a good townie.
I understand lynching an inactive is killing someone who wouldn't have helped anyway but you're still doing just that...just about guaranteeing a green lynch which is completely pointless.
As I said before I'm willing to go with either, there isn't much we could do. The issue I see with RNG is verifying if it's actually RNG.
Actually....I'm done for this....Let me read a little more and we'll see who I want to die....
Also, I'm tired of these idiotic plans. We can pm. Dt, check someone PM them, pass turn, check someone PM them and the other person, pass turn.
Quit playing like idiots and realize the benefits of having PMs....Nubby ass mafioso.
And go back and look at games with PM's day one, no body does anything that day...
The best thing I could say is everyone Roleclaim to me, and lynch me today...Or wait til tomorrow and do it. I'd inform of match ups, over counts, and die out as proof. How does that sound? I can send the PM out, and inform before death of everyone who doesn't respond, over counts of roles, ect. ect.
I could be checked night one if that would be a problem, (wouldn't recommend organized multi checking though) and lynched day 2. Even if I was god father, god father would be out and too many blues to snipe with a list of roles and over claims. *yawn*
But I don't really wanna die too bad, or abuse how easy this game could be.
~Opz~ has a condescending tone this mafia game, just like he does in this game. When I was reading through his posts in XXIII, its mostly yelling at people. Also, I believe that he is town because of he said that Artanis wrote Townie on his PM. If he was mafia, he wouldn't make such a huge claim.
As for BM, I believe that he is VI. BM spammed most of Mafia XXX also, and he was ninja then. Question, what is the point of using an important vig shot on a supposed VI? Can't we just not lynch the VI and be done with? Or are we just afraid that then, mafia members can pose as VI and not get lynched?
So question: Can't the mafia not kill BM if they believe that BM is not VI? Also, if BM is VI and tomorrow we double lynch him, don't we also lose? We're are depending on the mafia for this lynch to work, and I don't really like it. Also, mafia wouldn't be killing who they believe to be townies, and BM is definitely not playing like he is blue
This analysis is junk and you know it is too. I don't get this magical intuition of yours. It sounds like you just made this up on the spot.
Only thing that's nagging me is that Pandian just bandwagoned you. And Pandian for some reason has been bandwagoning whoever seems the most scummy at the moment. Who knows, maybe Pandian is right
The double lynch question Double lynch increases town Kp, it's like getting an extra day (okay there are some difference, ie we won't know the end result) We can a) Follow up on two leads. b) Kill Bill Murray and someone else in one day. VOTE DOUBLE LYNCH
On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote: Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save. 2.In case BM is mafia 3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though) 4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp
To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that.
Note, Mafia killing has a 100% chance of hitting a townie. That's why town lynching is preferred
I voted for him because his analysis was junk. Turns out I was wrong about him :S
Other junky posts were available at the time . I just felt you didn't have as good of a raisin bran muffin. (reason)
Comment: LSB defends his vote and SouthRawrea implies that LSB should have chosen someone else. His posts conveyed to me that he had people whom he was more suspicious of but that he voted Misder because there were more people suspicious of Misder.
On October 10 2010 11:01 SouthRawrea wrote: EBWOP: Sorry for triple post but post 1 is directed toward DrH and Post 2 at LSB
Comment: No substance. Confirms that his previous two posts were directed at DoctorHelvetica and LSB as I thought. Once again my habit of checking after posting kicking in here. >.>
October 10 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Night 2) Pandain is killed.
Conclusion - Casts vote on Day 1 without justification It was a random lynch. This requires no more justification that an inactive lynch does. - Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon" No. I opposed it because our game on Day 1 had more inactives than is normal and I felt that we should give them more of a chance to post before reaching any premature conclusions. - Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives Once again no. I said he was consistent. I didn't say he was right. - Implies he does not know the smurf but in the following post says he remembers who the smurf is Already been clarified - Accuses NukeTheBunnys of being mafia since he opposes Bill Murray I accused NukeTheBunnys based on his hesitance to analyze Bill Murray even though he was sure the Bill Murray was either Village Idiot or Mafia - When NukeTheBunnys replies, SouthRawrea dismisses all arguments by saying it's not in an essay form. Calls it "good advice". This was just another way of saying his argument was weak and his entire post was basically a summary comprised of one-liners. - After Misder is lynched and revealed to be Town, SouthRawrea quickly aligns himself and makes an empty threat I realized that i was low on the post count at this point in time and that I had to take a bit more action. Once again not empty. >.> - SouthRawrea publicly aligns himself to Pandain citing that he was the only one with a good "raisin bran muffin" Not really aligning myself to him not that it matter. - In the same post SouthRawrea accuses drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica, and/or XeliN, BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory - Suggests that he might be a target that night I was thinking at the time that if I was spot on that mafia might kill me but I then began to consider the possibility that mafia might use a wifom tactic if they're not on the list and kill me to convince the town to lynch the list - 2 hours and 15 minutes later Pandain is killed - No post since
Together in one place, these posts paint SouthRawrea into a very small corner. I propose that the town takes action. I want SouthRawrea to explain himself.
I put my responses in red. The thing that annoyed me most here was "X opposes Y" rather than "X opposes Y's idea".
On October 12 2010 02:09 Amber[LighT] wrote: So does SouthRawrea think we can't see him posting in another game? Seems stupid to not come in and defend yourself in this game since he's STILL ALIVE.
Sorry it took a little while for my latest post I had to read it over a couple times and stuff. 7 minutes after you posted your post so not so bad right? I was also trying to figure out what the two role PMs I got from both mods of that game meant so I had to read over that thread to find that the first one wasn't valid.
On October 10 2010 14:05 ~OpZ~ wrote: I took a hit last night.
err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know.
Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily!
Well someone out there knows I'm a town member, sheesh.
I'm seriously waiting on BC. I want to see some multiparty analysis from him. Til then I'm going to vote for him. His argument with Bill was pretty...Well I was in it too....So I can't say much. But Bill did point out a good point with that about Happy.
I was just waiting for more from BC...and I haven't gotten much more.
Dude, I have no issue popping out analysis, but waiting on me? I would ask if your expecting me to do it myself I ask you to do it as well. Your a solid player and shouldn't be relying just on my posts to figure out what to do.
No sir BC, that is not what I meant. I've been waiting to see something from you, so I could generate a better opinion about you. You know I can't trust you, and never do. And personally, even bringing up BM in your post made me suspect you more. We know BM wasn't playing pro-town. We haven't lynched him for fear of VI. Why did you feel you needed to beat a dead horse BC?
If you want my opinion, you've done more than Amber, and Xelin, and South, and Meeple. Kinda...annoyed they aren't posting at all. What you all have nothing to say? I'd venture 2 of you are mafia. Amber especially under suspicion.
Eh? I was asked to analyze BM by Infinite when he asked me for analysis. Suspecting me for doing something that someone asked is pretty sketchy play opz, even you know that. Besides, your also an experienced player, waiting for me to post to get a general idea on my alignment is great, its even smart. However, by not posting any analysis because your waiting for me doesn't help the town in the least. You can easily analyze me overtime as well as write up analysis of people you find suspicious to help the town.
You have a point sir, and I never considered it. I usually have a one track mind when it comes to looking at people. =( Other times, it's generally all over the place, but looking, I get too focused.