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On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote:Can someone explain to me why we voted for a double lynch? I could have sworn we were going to get this insane amount of information, yet from what it seems we're still running around with our heads cut off. Like what the hell happened yesterday? The day seemed pretty cut and dry. Vote Xelin and then see if mafia touches BM. Was this plan not sound? Then someone suggested a double lynch. I wasn't keen on the idea of doing this, and I vocally said going for a double lynch so early was a terrible idea. So now we didn't lynch Xelin, but instead went for someone who wasn't even being discussed until the last 12 hours of the day (since I checked frequently up until then). What seems to be the plan? Where does Xelin sit on the list? BM? Did we just forget about them. There is one thing I want to raise as suspicion, and everyone should consider this: I'm HIGHLY suspicious of this since we can't really check. Not only do I find it fishy that he would say this, but it's also weird that we would have 2 veterans with the possibility of a bulletproof in this game. It would seem that in a game this small it's more likely that only one person would fulfill each role, at the most. It makes no sense to stack roles like Veterans in this game, since our last veteran that died obviously had no clue how to use his role. However I will say that I am not suspcious of Opz because if he is a Veteran, he used the role very well, and his posts should be looked at to see who he targeted, if there's any relevant posts. But I want everyone to mull over this. Our friend, BC, used the same tactic in another mafia game and it ruined the town for about 2 days because we didn't act! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=133561¤tpage=81#1610Cliffs: BC claimed to be protected by a medic on Night 2. We played along and didn't act upon this claim. He then went on to completely obliterate the town in the subsequent days in BM's game. Is Opz lying? Well if you want to be sure we can lynch him. He isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once. He has been playing the fence throughout the whole game. Usually he pushes players against a wall more frequently, and he wasn't doing this in an aggressive way this time. For the second lynch, you guys can figure it out. You wanted 2, now start investigating. I'm going to just vote for Xelin again since the double lynch plan was more sound with Xelin dying yesterday and BM dying today.
This was your first post in god forsaken how long? Attacking me for eating a hit, then suggesting I get lynched when I could simply be bulletproof? What kind of logic is that?
Amber, what have you done all game? Let's have a look why don't we....Not that I want to dedicate this time since I'm at the GF's house, but Let me go ahead.
On October 11 2010 02:45 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Is Opz lying? Well if you want to be sure we can lynch him. He isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once. He has been playing the fence throughout the whole game. Usually he pushes players against a wall more frequently, and he wasn't doing this in an aggressive way this time.
Are you saying that in order to see if OpZ is a townie, we should lynch him? We could full well be doing the mafia's work for them, then. It's like the medieval witch trial joke. The way to tell if someone was a witch in medieval times - throw them in the ocean with weights attached. Live - is a witch, kill him/her. Die - oshi, was a human. I'm fairly convinced that OpZ is a townie so far, so the following paragraph assumes that: What do you mean "he isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once?" You might be forgetting that there's another role that takes hits, namely the Blue Bulletproof, who can't be nightkilled at all (except through poison or vigi). This whole thing really rests on what OpZ meant by "taking a hit" - did he get saved by a medic, did he use a veteran life, or did he survive with bulletproof? Even in the first two scenarios, if OpZ is a townie, he's still as useful as any other townie o_O at least in terms of numbers. I'm not sure what you're trying to argue. Also, OpZ - please clarify: Did you survive due to your role or due to a doc?
I'm not clarifying because it would be retarded. Tell mafia my role so they can guess if they can hit me again? Let them try, and let them find out. Duh?
Sry new guy you needed to know that.
Seriously.
Xelin, mafia.
Amber, Mafia.
BC, I'm torn. Only reason he would be mafia is because he was given the role happy started with.
And more about me taking that hit? LOOK WHAT TIME I CLAIMED IT. God damn, does no body notice shit like that anymore?
post on Amber coming up.
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On October 11 2010 11:47 Crisis_ wrote:
I believe OpZ when he said he took a hit. Even if he's lying, it's not like it's hurting our game that much. If someone were poisoned, we'd find out the next night anyway, and figure he was lying. As for his wording, it is likely that he is a vet/bulletproof because he would have otherwise said "I was hit, but saved" or some wording like that.
As for Cynan, I think he's definitely town now, after re-looking over his posts. They seemed suspicious before, but after looking at it from a town-play perspective, it was simply standard posting.
I'm still looking forward to hearing from kane]deth[, though. There's just not enough evidence to really put him down.
And while we're at it, since we have a double lynch, I'd like to hear from drag_ and ghrur, since they too have minimal posting.
No. If I was bp, vet, or med prot'd, I would of said the exact same thing? Why? Because I don't want mafia to know what happened.
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Opz I told them stop talking about it because it was so counter productive. Look at the people who have contributed today and then look at the votes. A few are awesome as they are random votes with no justification + no post in thread in general. Awesome game so far.
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United States4053 Posts
On October 12 2010 02:49 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'm not clarifying because it would be retarded. Tell mafia my role so they can guess if they can hit me again? Let them try, and let them find out. Duh?
Sry new guy you needed to know that.
Yes I did, thanks
Need to hear more on these new votes. I literally last checked an hour ago, and I didn't notice we had so much voting thread activity until BC pointed it out.
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On October 12 2010 03:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Opz I told them stop talking about it because it was so counter productive. Look at the people who have contributed today and then look at the votes. A few are awesome as they are random votes with no justification + no post in thread in general. Awesome game so far.
TY BC, sry man. Just got off work and missed that post, tired as hell.
On October 04 2010 22:21 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2010 18:58 Protactinium wrote:
Oh, and Detectives, you are not sleuths in this game. You are suicide cops. There is no passing your knowledge on. If you strike gold, er, red, shout out. Don't keep it to yourself, since if you die you take your findings to the grave. Shout out the name of the Mafia, then the names of those you have cleared. If everything goes correctly and Mafia are out for revenge, you should die bloodied and lacerated at night. But at least you'll have done your job.
Detectives, beware the Godfather. It doesn't deny in the Original Post that he can assume the mantle of the Village Idiot, which would make him close to unkillable, disregarding the Vigilante. More thoughts on this later, but if you are a Private Eye and you find the Town Fool, be wary if/when you choose to spill your secret findings to the world.
Oh, and lastly, lynch an inactive. If they are town-aligned, they're not going to be contributing anyway. Might as well get them out of the game to save some trouble later on, since with a lack of Behavior Analysts reds shouldn't be expected to be caught day 1 anyway.
. No. No. AND No. Detectives should not feel that they need to out themselves upon finding someone out. Their abilities are _REALLY_ powerful in this game and we need them to be cautious and analytical in their findings. There is a reason they can't act until NIGHT 2. The one major reason NO Detective should out themselves is because of the miller role. There's no way to sift through posts to gather a reading on a player that could be green/blue and come up red on a check. This is like a reverse sanity check for the Detective. What's going to happen when a DT outs themselves claiming they found a red and then we lynch a blue/green?! Guess who's on the chopping block the next day? That's 2 DAY cycles we miss hitting mafia because of useless knowledge. Their abilities should be used to gather a town circle. Trust the players you check, and take risks in others you think are secure. Do not fear the Godfather. The chances of checking him are very slim. Regardless, his role only buys the mafia a day and he is in the same bucket as the millers. They will need extra attention. DT's once again: Trust your checks. We can go back and find out who's siphoning information out of your circles later. They can be caught, but it's up to you to play smart. If you think you checked someone and the check doesn't match up, then try to get the town to discuss it WITHOUT outing yourself. You're going to just accuse another player anyway, and we (the town) will try to protect you. Lynching an inactive is almost a guarantee at lynching a pro-town role. If they don't want to participate and play like crap, then fine. But they need to vote pro-town at the very least. Don't lynch someone who can make the difference... Most townies play with this stupid passive role as though they should just be quiet. NO. If you are a townie start speaking up! Your job is to look through posting etiquette and weed out "bad" posts. Be careful of traps, like this gem: Show nested quote +On October 04 2010 19:31 ~OpZ~ wrote:On October 04 2010 12:49 Amber[LighT] wrote:
So I'm gonna be asleep so I'm gonna just start now:
We should work on figuring out how we want to go about voting on Day 1. We can:
-Randomly Pick
-Pick an Inactive
-Pick an Active
I think of these three we should just go for a random pick. It seems that every time we choose an inactive the game just gets caught in a battle between 2 town groups, which never have mafia in them anyway!
It also might be a good idea to first design a plan (or 2 or 3) for how we want the blues to act over the next few days. We will want to keep our Detectives out of sight until day 2. Sadly I don't think outing them is the best option, so it's going to really be up to them to be really good at concealing themselves tonight. The same thing should apply to our vigilantes.
Pretty much our night 1 decisions need to be for the medics only. It's really hard to point out the people who should be saved, or how many people will be saved, so we should really let them use their best judgment while giving them a list of people to protect.
I'm going to state this now: I am going to be against role claiming, and I don't want to end up ruining the spirit of the game by doing this (as I feel it does). ...Wow....obviously.... -______- Derp typical OpZ day1 post. Don't expect much more from him until Day 2, just a guess.
My post was Derp, but you're talking about PMs and Circles? Read the rules.
Would of been decent logic, buuuuuuuuuuut ignore the GF, but be wary of Millers? That's kind of an oxymoron. Bad reverse logic there. He wants you to PM his godfather, but he DOESNT want you to shout if you find a mafia?. Kk, got you there home boy.
Why is this bad play? Because detective defend people they check that come up town, and attack people that come up mafia. That's what you do. That's your job. He's telling you....The opposite?
On October 04 2010 22:27 Amber[LighT] wrote:Pandains post: + Show Spoiler +On October 04 2010 17:52 Pandain wrote:
Alright I have high hopes for this game, lots of interesting roles(even for mafia). I'd like to offer my thoughts on some of them and what I think they would want to do, just common advice i suppose.
Medic: Protect people who you think are going to get hit(duh.You would be pretty dumb if you didn't.) This can include active pro town-seeming people, people you think are blue, people you think are going to be hit, or just decide your own path and be a rebel.
DT: Protect who you have a suspicion of, including but not limited to
1.People acting out of character
2.Lurking people
Veteran or Bulletproof: Try to soak up hits, but don't be too obvious. Under NO even remotely normal circumstances should any of these claim, as then the mafia will just stray away from shooting them. The only time they should claim is if they got hit
Then we got the two town KP roles, both very interesting in this game. Let's go over them.
Mad Hatter
This role is very dangerous. In the hands of a good player, it can win the game, in the hands of a bad(or just bad luck) it can lose the game. For example, in Bill Murray's game Citizen,zeks, and sinquity managed to stall mafia by revealing they had a mad hatter, and had bombs on mafia.
However, just as it seemed we were about to win Xelin the suicide bomber came in and killed 5 people, and zeks had a bomb on infun meaning another one died. MH has to be very careful with your bombs, but always place one(as we can get more info/chance) and the fact you can always move it.
Vigilante
The most interesting role for me. Now it says he CAN use it starting night two, but should we have him? I say starting night two we make a vote/tally of who to kill as an "additional lynch." And if we're really not sure, we don't even have to use him. In fact, he might just ignore us or not even exist. However, I'm hoping the town consensus will convince him unless he has a REALLY good read on someone.
But more importantly, he will help us solve the Village Idiot Conundrum. That is, how do we know if a sucipious/scum looking person will not have been the VI the whole time! If we're stuck on that problem , we can use the vigilante to safely remove him. More devilishly, we can not lynch him and say we're going to lynch him next night, so if he's not mafia they will have to make a choice whether to risk having the VI lynched. Then we can even waste a kp, in addition to the possible fact he may have lived because he actually IS mafia.
But that's just getting into theory now, let's go back to what we can do now. Basically, we're at the part where Amber}Light says we are, where we can do one of three things.
1. Lynch an inactive
2.Randomly pick someone (PS KingJames you go to a random number generator on a website or w/e)
3.Lynch a suspicious person
In two options(#1 and 3), the village idiot plays a large role in our decision. How do we know a sucipsious/inactive person isn't simply playing that role so then they will get lynched? The thing is, we don't. We'll have to use our best logic. I am against #2 on the basis of pure statistics. Assuming we have all blue roles, there is a greater chance of lynching a blue than a mafia.
I like lynching inactives for a number of reasons
1.Usually are never blues(almost always townies)
2.Forces people to get talking
3.Provides us with more info(via the result of #2)
Now let me say this: I might not lynch an inactive person. But if I don't push it, I will push you getting vigi'd. I want at least 2 good posts from everyone by the end of the day. As of right now I would hope to see your opinion on what to do today at the very least. Also I'm going to agree with Pandain for the time being. We need to understand how people play. Everyone should post or at least make an attempt to post. Try to use your strengths to figuring out mafia players. It's hard with a blank canvas, so think of a creative way to get the mafia to jump out. I'm in favor of use a random number generator to out someone. The person should then make a convincing claim so we can at least have something to work from. I was going to suggest a PM tactic for the Day 1 lynch, but this is a NO PM GAME. So this could get tricky :/
Of course mafia would be in favor of a RNG. You wouldn't out someone. You would just create a shitty lynch target that would provide the town with No information. Good idea again Amber. I think my sarcasm is coming across thick. Or I'm hoping it is.
On October 05 2010 20:38 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 14:05 Crisis_ wrote:On October 05 2010 12:39 ~OpZ~ wrote:On October 05 2010 12:12 Bill Murray wrote:
I'm here. I just started my first day of work, so I don't know if I'll be able to be as active as I have in the past. Haven't gotten to read the thread yet, as I just worked a twelve hour day, but I promise I'll make an informed post tomorrow. Yea, uh huh. I believe it, but come on BM! On October 05 2010 12:03 Crisis_ wrote:I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum. I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie. As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies. K, I'll be voting you in a second Crisis_.... How nice of you to vote for me. Glad to know that your vote will be a waste, since: 1. I am participating in active discussion to try to help town and give advice to the DT, I wouldn't be doing this if I were scum. 2. There are better candidates to be lynched, i.e. inactives. I would highly suggest being careful about how you analyze for the rest of the game. You're in for a full-on assault from Opz now. Shitlisted!!! So half the town just isn't aware of the game going on right now? We need the other 12+ players to contribute...
Don't get rough with me boy. I'll bite you.
On October 06 2010 02:19 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 00:48 meeple wrote:On October 06 2010 00:29 Crisis_ wrote:On October 05 2010 22:57 NukeTheBunnys wrote:
Here is the list of people that have not posted so far, so we can get an idea of who the inactives are
1. JeeJee
2. bumatlarge
3. Bill Murray
10.SINiquity
11.XeliN
12.kane]deth[
15.infinitestory
16.cSc
20.drag_
21.CynanMachine
I did not count 1 line post with no real content. A bit less then half the people have posted by now with most of the content from a small group of people(~OpZ~,Amber[LighT].Divinek and Misder and some others) If we choose to vote inactive, we currently have quite the pool to choose from Well, these inactives are the candidates that I'm in favor of voting of. And yea, I'm new, so I'm probably shit at this game rofl. I wouldn't be surprised if I screwed up the whole game. I've attempted to give advice to the DT, but now I'm not so sure if it was a great idea or not. Well... I won't discourage your posting, since anything is useful at this point... but the DT can't even act until Night 2... so if you are attempting to aid the blue roles in making decisions, try the medic  On that note... not only cops but I think protective roles should read up on http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=JEEP's_Tells_for_Finding_the_Cop like Infund suggested... just to mess with the red's heads a little more... please don't be obvious about tells but just keep them in mind. Of that list... the only ones that strike me as odd are JeeJee and Xelin, since I think they're usually around. Perhaps because of the late start, BrownBear should send them little nudges through PM's that the games started? True we should probably work on making sure that the medic is set up. It wouldn't surprise me if an inactive is the medic since it makes no sense for active players to risk getting killed while at the same time providing the town with insight. That should be done by the townies (who a bunch are still snoozing!!!!!). The top 5 on that list will probably speak by the end of the day. Due to past mafia experience they always maintain a low presence and will erupt come tomorrow as though this massive amount of information will be gathered by tomorrow. I'm interested to hear about why we should lynch certain people though. I mean the current active town can just hang out and start spitting out names of inactive players but you should be defending your right to stay alive through this lynch.... I'm still on the fence as to how this vote should go, but we need to have a decent plan going into day 2 as well for how voting procedure should take place. This could happen tomorrow when the other players decide to finally become active.
Funny how....None came out with a mass amount of information the next day. When were you going to point this out. Drawing heat of fellow mafia? It's cool.
On October 06 2010 22:28 Amber[LighT] wrote:
well done with the VI lynch... maybe people will stop ignoring my posts when I say that obvious stupid bandwagons were forming and to STOP THEM. What happened in day 1 is no surprise the town didn't organize properly, and too many people are sitting idly twiddling their thumbs.
Bill Murray should never be taken seriously. He's obviously playing irrationally trying to get people to lynch someone on a name-basis. RE-READ PAGES 15-17 and keep him on your radar!
And....You didn't keep posting your suspicions why? I don't get it....
On October 07 2010 23:09 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Xelin are you serious? Bill Murray has done nothing but spew bullshit this entire thread and all of a sudden you "side with him" because of town/townie? You've played mafia games with BM before, and you're going to side with him? This is the same crap he pulls every game. I wake up and I open up FF to see the night post and follow-up posts between midnight and now. I see "TL MAFIA XXXI" and I'm like "cool it's been active." I click the thread and I remembered leaving off at page 27. Now it's 7 pages later and I got excited. The town was active! They are posting! I read about 2 pages in and realize how Day 2 was starting off. I pretty much went from :-D, to :-), to :-?, to >:|, to >:/, to "FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU" in about 5 minutes. I'm sitting here thinking, "could it get any worse?" Oh it does. Xelin you're going to defend BM on this and lynch a high-tier player? You know the only reason BM is doing this is because it's BC, not because HFT managed to fuck up and not vote. I can't side with an argument that has no concrete evidence.
Now I also notice that BM is praising his lynch on the VI. You dumb bro? That was supposed to be game over. You managed to fuck the game up within 24 hours, and now you continue hacking away at players fishing for roles, like you always do. Luckily this is a non-PM game so you can't harass us like the last time, so I guess your only outlet is this thread.
SERIOUSLY STOP THE SPAM.
Just gonna say this if we just lynched BM on Day 1 like I subtly suggested this would have never happened:
1. VI wouldn't have been killed.
2. BC/OPZ/DrH wouldn't be on the chopping block
3. Thread would be about 4 pages less and more read-able and less frustrating.
4. Xelin wouldn't stick his head out (what is this all about?)
To be honest I don't even think any of the 5 people I've listed are mafia, it's just inner-town squabbles. You gotta remember that not everyone got a "townie PM" anyway so lynching based upon Artanis/BB's noun choices is laughable. And If that happens I'm gonna pretty much stop playing because that's just nonsense (and it will be the 2nd time in a row in this game we've allowed noise to clutter up the voting thread.)
Should Xelin not be sticking his head out? His analysis and his opinions have generally been good. So why isn't he helping us right now? Notice you attack xelin and then defend him. Same with BM. I don't get it. What do you want us to do? You're giving no direction. You are keeping us in a circle, and I don't like it. You need to go.
On October 08 2010 08:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote:
[quote]
We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do.
The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia. or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him. On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose. so lets clarify you are saying if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose? if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan. The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do. Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view. Assume we are following through with our plan. It's Night 2. Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them. They either have two options 1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster 2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red. Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia. As for the Town. It's Day 3. From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post. If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia. What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is redMafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information. I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched) Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it.
And then top it all off, you support keeping BM alive. Knowing the mafia wont hit BM. That's too funny to even suggest casually. I don't get it. Chaos causing, spam spewing BM, is beneficial for mafia. Mafia offing him would be...Retarded?
On October 08 2010 09:06 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 08:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:
[quote]
I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game.
So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him. On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose. so lets clarify you are saying if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose? if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan. The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do. Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view. Assume we are following through with our plan. It's Night 2. Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them. They either have two options 1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster 2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red. Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia. As for the Town. It's Day 3. From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post. If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia. What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is redMafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information. I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched) Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it. Do you really feel Xelin is the strongest candidate for tonights lynch? He has a tenuous connection with Bill Murray and BB implied he might have a blue/red role. If BM is mafia then I'd say Xelin probably is as well but I don't want to risk lynching a blue until we have more information on BM if that makes sense. If Xelin is blue he should be doing a really shitty job at defending himself. He needs to do more especially if he knows how valuable his role is, if he is indeed blue. If he's green then it's less likely he will fight for his life, perhaps even less than if he were mafia. This passive behavior isn't right though. Xelin doesn't play like this.
Good, cuz I'm voting for him too.
My opinion
I need to go hop in the shower.
Anyway, Amber is clearly not playing as he usually does. He probably has come at me because his team could not kill me last night. They want me dead, and that's FAIRLY obvious by me taking a hit. To jump at me like that, then throw a vote on me for no reason, just because?
Look
On October 11 2010 22:10 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Don't worry dude I'm really frustrated. I don't understand how you could be completely (or just about completely) inactive when you have such a power role for the town. He should have been creating a lot of the town discussion and pointing fingers, but sometimes things don't work out as they should, so we move on.
I'm putting my votes on Xelin and Opz, not because I want them to be lynched, but because I don't want to be modkilled. I expressed my frustration over the double lynch and I'm not going to throw more townies under a bus, as some magic invisible hand has been doing this game. It's actually ridiculous how in THREE day cycles the discussion has literally spun from valid and sound choices to these obscure call-out votes.
I sense a lot of sheep in this game, and if you're listening to the loud mouth players you're already losing the game for us.
What?
POST YOR OWN Thoughts. You just waste your vote becase your mad about a double lynch. What kind of useless townie are you.
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United States4053 Posts
Going to change a vote to Amber. SR's defense was mostly satisfactory (although I would still like to see more substantial reasons for accusing everyone who voted Misder), and Amber's logic for calling OpZ out is really bad (I don't see how someone softclaims townie -> we lynch them. At all.)
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The reason for that is: Look at when all of Misder's votes came. There is definitely something going on there. You can always expect to find at least one mafia within that kind of voting group.
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pretty good case on amber, opz
considering voting him, possibly even instead of BC. BC has been seeming town moreso to me lately
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Ok, I did some voting analysis for what it's worth. There a lot of assumptions, but here goes:
Firstly, some assumptions.
The mafia has 5 votes. I think it's fair to say that they clearly do not vote in one big block. However I think it's also fair to say that they don't vote for 5 different guys completely randomly. My guess would be that the mafia may be split into 2 or 3 groups - where each day 2 people will vote for the guy they want to hit to make sure he dies, and the others will vote relatively randomly to prevent any sort of pattern emerging. This could be true because the mafia will never stay in one group, because if one gets caught then it makes it much easier to find the rest. This is all theory - no factual evidence to support this, but I think it could possibly make sense.
Therefore, to identify some clue of who the mafia is we need to look at someone who votes for the person killed, and then votes for someone on pretty weak evidence. However this is far too general, and cannot be conclusive. However the vote for the double lynch just passed yesterday gaining exactly the 12 votes needed. Now there were 20 voters yesterday - I will not include myself because I'm confident in my not being red. If we look at around two hours before the vote there are three votes for double lynch that come in the space of 15 mins. Now there is nothing overly suspicious of this, except that all three of these people had voted before with who they wanted to lynch and then as it seemed the double would not pass they support it. These are:
LSB
Sinquity
Crisis_
Now just for fun I'll do a little probing into each of them.
I'm unsure about LSB - he didn't make a vote first day so it's hard to analyze what the rationale behind his vote was.
Sinquity is a little more fishy potentially. On day 1 he voted for protactinum, who was later lynched. He does not post an actual reason for protactinium, unless I can't find it. Also, on day 1 the person who attacked him the most was Panda, a very good townie. Panda was later bumped off the next day. However next day he votes for meeple, and is the only one too, seemingly without any reason. Then a full day later he posts his rather short explanation
On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote:This is what I found on Meeple while sifting through the thread last night. In short, he's been moderately active but hasn't really said a whole lot. Ultimately gets boiled down into the following 4 categories: - + Show Spoiler [Lynch Inactives] +
On October 02 2010 14:25 meeple wrote:
Yeah ten minutes a day isn't really playing mafia... you're just doing the bare minimum not to get banned. What's the fun in that? On October 05 2010 08:07 meeple wrote:
a) Mafia statistically hide more amongst the inactives than amongst the active, its not just about non-blues.
b) An inactive lynch has the dual purpose of encouraging both mafia and town to post more. If someone's town then hopefully they'll contribute to productive discussion, but if they're red it leaves a big trail for someone to analyze. The chances of getting village idiot isn't equal to hitting red because there's much more reds than idiots.
On October 06 2010 05:47 meeple wrote:
Random lynching is almost never good... read my previous post about how voting inactive is far superior...
- + Show Spoiler [Suspicious of Pandain / CynanMachae] +
On October 06 2010 05:40 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 05:27 Pandain wrote:
I don't count Cynan as inactive and Nobody should vote for him because his actions thus far are in accordance with his previous play. That's not to say I'm not watching him(I am) but he's not that suspicious to me.
Whoa whoa... weird defense of cynan... the votes against him were just to bump him back into posting... which he did, so those should eventually fade away to other, more suitable targets. However, he's definitely not in enough danger for another townie to worry about him getting the chop. This makes a lot more sense if you're an anxious red protecting your buddy... On October 06 2010 05:47 meeple wrote:
Past that... I'm going for cynanmachae because I got a lot of funny twinges from reading Pandains post. Besides the possible red link, where if Cynanmachae turns up red, Pandain should also... if Pandain turns out to be green, it "might" say good things about Pandain, since the likelihood of scum sticking up for a green in those circumstances is pretty small... On October 08 2010 05:19 meeple wrote:
BM the problem with you spamming is that you'll never be taken seriously... I have no idea why anyone followed your bs Protact vote... There's 25 people in this game and your posting constitutes a full 1/6 of all the replies in this thread... I hope to god you see a problem with this... especially since most of those replies are like quadruple posts...
If you're so certain of BC, why would you want dts to check him before we lynch? That makes so little sense... stop the shit and do some real analysis... not this stuff about Role PMs
As for me... I see nothing but arguing about shit-all and my eyes are weary. I wasn't completely satisfied with Pandain reasoning for sticking up for Cynan... especially with Cynan's vote for him later... possibly to distance themselves from each other...
- + Show Spoiler [Raises concerns of Protactinium vote] +
On October 06 2010 10:58 meeple wrote:
... lots of sudden votes for protactinium... I mean... smurfing isn't that annoying is it?
What's the deal with infinitestory's no-post vote... get in here man! On October 06 2010 11:01 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 10:54 SiNiquity wrote:
so protactinium, who are you? You're tied for the lead to be killed. I really don't know who he is... and it shouldn't matter... but if you look through his posts... it smacks of someone like flamewheel
- + Show Spoiler [Misc] +
On October 07 2010 09:54 meeple wrote:By this you imply? Show nested quote +
Pandian is writing weird stories again. That probably means he's Red or Blue
Dunno why you say this, other than blue/red excitement about a game... Show nested quote +
As for the Newcomers, I haven't read much, but it should be pretty easy to tell if one of them is Green. Are any of them superactive?
infinitestory has been active... but he's also been pretty illogical at times... Show nested quote +Lastly, Someone go Protect/Investigate Xelin. Brownbear just told us straight out that he's Red or Blue Despite what it may seem I doubt that a host would really make that mistake... that's a pretty big fuck up... On October 07 2010 15:25 meeple wrote:
This is pretty ridiculous... BM stop shitting up the thread
@drag_ I don't think he can be VI since shouldn't there be only one per game? Besides BB made it clear that if you spam to get killed as VI, he's just gonna modkill you.
To be honest, it should happen anyways... I don't know why it hasn't happened before... he usually spams the fuck out of the thread to piss people off and people end up ignoring him or lynching him right away to get rid of the annoying bastard. On October 07 2010 15:27 meeple wrote:
Ah edit... probably doesn't mean that there's only one VI per game... I misinterpreted... On October 08 2010 05:23 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 05:20 Bill Murray wrote:
I am certain of BC, but noone will fucking lynch him. That is why I'm asking DTs to check. If he comes back as "town", he is the godfather. If he is blue, he is possibly legit. No one will listen because you're blabbering like a fool... the tactic of "I'm loud and obnoxious so listen to me" works in preschool, but not in mafia man On October 09 2010 13:31 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 13:18 Protactinium wrote:
Hrm would anybody be averse to me just flipping Misder? It'll save some time for anybody waiting. Jesus, you're dead... don't backseat mod. This is BrownBear's game...
Annd that's it. All of his posts. Could be blue skating by, could just have a lot of shit going on. I'd like to hear more. I'm also suspicious of the fact that CynanMachae is still alive, primarily because it sounded like he soft-claimed blue, Pandain even called him out on it, and he never really refuted it. Surely the Mafia didn't miss this ~ yet they haven't hit a blue yet. It could be they're not blue hunting and are instead simply targeting more experienced players (Bum, Infund, Pandain + whoever they poisoned). He also hasn't been terribly active (got put off by BM spamming which is understandable). Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o
This really is not convincing reasoning to me. It seems half hearted, and furthermore he does not follow up with this after he votes. He has not mentioned Meeple at all since this post if I searched correctly. The timing of his vote for Meeple is also peculiar. He votes at 11:45, when it is almost certain that Misder is going to be lynched. At his time of voting he still hasn't provided justification for Meeple, I believe. This to me almost seems like he just picked a random then attempted to justify it later. Why?
I believe he was waiting to make sure misder got lynched. Once it was clear he cast a vote that would draw attention away from himself.
Furthermore he votes for the double lynch late in the evening, at 10:22, under the pretext that Xellin told him that there were unlimited doubles. This is dubious. If you were curious, you would look on the front page, where it clearly states there are 2 remaining. Unless of course he's looking for an excuse to pull back on his vote at a later date. Once again why?
At his time of voting there was a lot of voting activity in general. It was not absurd to see someone withdrawing from the double. However his vote gave the double a 1 vote security against this. It would be more revealing if every time someone pulled out, one person immediately took his place to make an exact 12. He himself then pulls out because he sees Xelin "lied to him". This draws attention away from him and to Xelin, when it was a simple problem to begin with, and it supplies him with a fair motive to change his vote. Although I'm unsure why he pulled out. This is what puzzles me. One possible motive is that he wants to give a conservative front and act as if he wants as little death as possible, contrary to the mafia. I'm unsure, but I have to say the statistics are little curious.
Crisis_:
He follows the same pattern of voting for the person who gets lynched, and then voting seemingly randomly. He votes for protactinium, and then he is the ONLY person to vote for BillMurray. He once again posts his vote before giving a reason. His explanation is also not very convincing:
On October 09 2010 09:40 Crisis_ wrote:My suspect list: I think the top suspects are those that receive accusation, and only surface when they're being threatened. CynanMachineHas been making mostly defensive posts with flawed arguments (sometimes even just brushing them off like they're not legitimate), some such as: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=43#845ghrurhttp://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38#741Talks a lot about how a red would play. People will relate others based on the role they actually are. They will think in that mindset. Bill MurrayUgh... a lot of spam, and an iffy plan...? I doubt there's more than one VI, and it seems like BM does this a lot in every mafia game he plays, so it's "normal" play for him. I'd just be okay with lynching him to get rid of the spam, but I know that's not really the best choice. I think he's more town than mafia.
He posts this after his vote. This is not an explanation of any detail. He later claims he will change his vote, but of course he does not. However, he does participate in the voting thread again. This clearly means that he hasn't forgotten, but has no intentions of switching his vote. At 8:49 at the end of Day 2 he makes this post
On October 09 2010 09:49 Crisis_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:44 Pandain wrote:
Crisis, while your online, vote for double lynch Okay, I'll consider it. Can you clarify this for me, though? Will the double lynch occur tonight or tomorrow if it passes?
From this we know that he is aware Panda is online, and Panda replies to his question 3 minutes later, yet it takes Crisis a full 1 and a half to change his post, and he provides 0 reasoning for it. This makes it seem as if he is asking someone else about the double lynch.
His vote change is at the same time as Sinquinity's. To me it appears that he was waited for Sinquinity to reply to his question about the double lynch, and getting the go ahead from siniquity, he changes his vote. From the time of their posts we can tell that they were online at the same time. Sin had not posted for awhile, while we know that Crisis had been online for a long time. There is very little reason I can see for the delay in Crisis changing his vote, unless he was waiting for something, like Sin answering his question.
This may also explain Sin's post including Xellin. A potential scenario: Sin replies to Crisis to vote for the double. Sin then sees it might not past and wants to vote for it to create a bandwagon effect, or just for some insurance. However he sees the proximity of their posts and sees this could be a link between them. He puts in the bit about Xellin as a cover story.
The above is merely theory, and of course cannot be proven. However, I felt like it was an interesting idea, and wanted to share it.
That said I'm suspicious of crisis and siniquity until they can prove otherwise.
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SouthRawrea's explanation for his posts have satisfied me for the moment. However, that leaves me still with the problem of finding two people to vote for.
I still think CynanMachae is mafia. Otherwise he would have voted to save himself. He seemed to predict the bandwagon of Protactinium before it happened. This is the all the proof that I need to declare CynanMachae mafia.
Amber[LighT], you support the lynching of a "almost confirmed" Blue. If you have can find any proof or can present a good argument that he is deceiving us then present it. Otherwise it seems like you're attempting to finish off a botched hit.
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SR's response to
- Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon"
- Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives
Removes that suspicion I had on my mind, which was the main thing I was worrying about. Kingjames's accusation did seem a bit too good to be true
Okay, as for my vote. I'm going to splice my vote so it's most likely going to hit a mafia. Notice that if we just kill one mafia, their KP goes down by one.
Firstly, I'm going to stick to attacking Bill Murray. Bill Murray's plan was a horrendous flop. Literally all it does is shows the mafia who is blue. (Ie the people not speaking up). I can't believe I wasn't on at that time, but it's an immediate FOS for me.
Also take a look at Amber_Light.
Firstly, what's up with voting for Xelin and Opz? Amber_Light is indicating that he wants to abstain, but Xelin right now is under a big bandwagon, and I don't like this "abstain" vote that might off someone.
Secondly,
Opz wrote
Should Xelin not be sticking his head out? His analysis and his opinions have generally been good. So why isn't he helping us right now? Notice you attack xelin and then defend him. Same with BM. I don't get it. What do you want us to do? You're giving no direction. You are keeping us in a circle, and I don't like it. You need to go.
One problem. Maybe Amber_Light is medic and that's why he is accusing OpZ. I'm more inclined to believe Opz than Amber_Light, simply because the risks that Opz has to take in order to fake claim.
Lastly, check this out
Bill Murray attacks Amber
On October 12 2010 04:41 Bill Murray wrote:
pretty good case on amber, opz
considering voting him, possibly even instead of BC. BC has been seeming town moreso to me lately
Amber wants Bill dead
On October 08 2010 08:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote:
[quote]
We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do.
The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia. or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him. On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose. so lets clarify you are saying if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose? if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan. The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do. Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view. Assume we are following through with our plan. It's Night 2. Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them. They either have two options 1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster 2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red. Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia. As for the Town. It's Day 3. From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post. If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia. What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is redMafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information. I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched) Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it.
Note that there are 5 mafia in the game, that means at least one of the bandwagons is probably mafia sponsored.
Well, since they are attacking each other, I'm pretty sure that only one of the bandwagons is mafia sponsored. And so I'll split my vote to push for the town bandwagon.
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On October 12 2010 05:54 LSB wrote:SR's response to Show nested quote +- Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon"
- Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives Removes that suspicion I had on my mind, which was the main thing I was worrying about. Kingjames's accusation did seem a bit too good to be true Okay, as for my vote. I'm going to splice my vote so it's most likely going to hit a mafia. Notice that if we just kill one mafia, their KP goes down by one. Firstly, I'm going to stick to attacking Bill Murray. Bill Murray's plan was a horrendous flop. Literally all it does is shows the mafia who is blue. (Ie the people not speaking up). I can't believe I wasn't on at that time, but it's an immediate FOS for me. Also take a look at Amber_Light. Firstly, what's up with voting for Xelin and Opz? Amber_Light is indicating that he wants to abstain, but Xelin right now is under a big bandwagon, and I don't like this "abstain" vote that might off someone. Secondly, Show nested quote +Opz wrote
Should Xelin not be sticking his head out? His analysis and his opinions have generally been good. So why isn't he helping us right now? Notice you attack xelin and then defend him. Same with BM. I don't get it. What do you want us to do? You're giving no direction. You are keeping us in a circle, and I don't like it. You need to go. One problem. Maybe Amber_Light is medic and that's why he is accusing OpZ. I'm more inclined to believe Opz than Amber_Light, simply because the risks that Opz has to take in order to fake claim. Lastly, check this out Bill Murray attacks Amber Show nested quote +On October 12 2010 04:41 Bill Murray wrote:
pretty good case on amber, opz
considering voting him, possibly even instead of BC. BC has been seeming town moreso to me lately Amber wants Bill dead Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 08:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
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or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him. On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose. so lets clarify you are saying if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose? if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan. The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do. Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view. Assume we are following through with our plan. It's Night 2. Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them. They either have two options 1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster 2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red. Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia. As for the Town. It's Day 3. From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post. If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia. What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is redMafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information. I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched) Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it. Note that there are 5 mafia in the game, that means at least one of the bandwagons is probably mafia sponsored. Well, since they are attacking each other, I'm pretty sure that only one of the bandwagons is mafia sponsored. And so I'll split my vote to push for the town bandwagon.
Xelin probably should have died yesterday. I'm indifferent whether you think it's weird that I'm "abstaining" on somebody who is leading in votes, but I said that I thought he should be lynched, and I was against the double lynch. If we had to pick ONE person to lynch today, I would still vote for Xelin.
I "wanted BM dead" if the mafia was left to do it or if a vigilante was feeling daring. There's no reason to really lynch BM and I never felt strongly to want him dead via a lynch. I wouldn't even really read into what BM is doing to be honest. He's just agreeing with the flavor of the week since he can't spam anymore. This won't end well if I get lynched, and people will look to him next because of his awful judgment and misguided perception of players, but hey what do I know, Opz obviously proved indefinitely that I must be mafia since I not once agreed on any vote-train and now I'm challenging something that Opz said.
I'm not playing how I usually do? How do I play that's differing from what I'm doing? You haven't proven that I'm playing any differently, but instead you're weaving in dramatic suspicion about my play-style because you realized every post I made is as pro-town as it gets. I've been playing pro-town the whole game and if anything the fact that I've been highly suspect of EVERY mass vote disaster this game should at the very least clear me, but no, the mob mentality is taking affect and the sheep are being strung along as expected.
Oh and what's my team? Who has actually been idly agreeing with me this game. What will lynching me show? That everybody ignored me? There's no connection between myself and anyone else in this game. I've been attacking and criticizing the same players from the very start. You guys have been under the radar and still alive. Seem like the power players of this game are avoiding death while the vocal outcasts are getting the axe.
I didn't bring up Opz as a suspect because I think absolutely 100% he is lying. I want people to think about EVERYTHING that's going on. It's posts like yours (Opz) which quickly drown in this game because people are so caught up in hypothetical nonsense. We want to focus on how the game progresses day by day, yet the minute someone dares to challenge what someone says the town is in uproar because it's just preposterous. Are you guys aware that this game is entirely based upon deceit? You must be at least a little bit suspicious. Does that mean lynch Opz? No! It means think about everything that's presented. Then we won't waste double lynches like this.
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Just looked at the vote tally if I die tonight this town is more stupid than I originally thought, and this mafia team is very well established. How I went from not even having a mention to beating someone in votes to a person who should have died yesterday is beyond my own comprehension.
Maybe my outlandish and ridiculous statements will be taken more seriously.
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United States4053 Posts
You addressed everything else, but you kinda dodged the main point against you, which was your unfounded aggression against OpZ. This main point is also probably the main reason for the vote train against you.
On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Is Opz lying? Well if you want to be sure we can lynch him. He isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once. For a number of different reasons, already outlined in the thread, this is pretty illogical He has been playing the fence throughout the whole game. Usually he pushes players against a wall more frequently, and he wasn't doing this in an aggressive way this time.
For the second lynch this implies that you've got OpZ down as lynch #1 in your head, you guys can figure it out. You wanted 2, now start investigating. I'm going to just vote for Xelin again since the double lynch plan was more sound with Xelin dying yesterday and BM dying today.
Instead of trying to justify this comment in your defense, you actually said that you didn't advocate lynching OpZ 100%, but rather wanted to keep us on our toes. I know I should be wary of OpZ lying, but it's pretty clear from the bolded parts of your statement that you want OpZ dead for one reason or another. On top of that, you voted OpZ and tried to say you were abstaining. I just don't see the logic behind it at all, and your defense didn't adequately cover this most pressing point.
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amber wanting me alive =/= not town, but close to it! lol
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On October 12 2010 07:20 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Just looked at the vote tally if I die tonight this town is more stupid than I originally thought, and this mafia team is very well established. How I went from not even having a mention to beating someone in votes to a person who should have died yesterday is beyond my own comprehension.
Maybe my outlandish and ridiculous statements will be taken more seriously.
I've been suspicious of you on the inside
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On October 12 2010 07:34 infinitestory wrote:You addressed everything else, but you kinda dodged the main point against you, which was your unfounded aggression against OpZ. This main point is also probably the main reason for the vote train against you. Show nested quote +On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Is Opz lying? Well if you want to be sure we can lynch him. He isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once. For a number of different reasons, already outlined in the thread, this is pretty illogical He has been playing the fence throughout the whole game. Usually he pushes players against a wall more frequently, and he wasn't doing this in an aggressive way this time.
For the second lynch this implies that you've got OpZ down as lynch #1 in your head, you guys can figure it out. You wanted 2, now start investigating. I'm going to just vote for Xelin again since the double lynch plan was more sound with Xelin dying yesterday and BM dying today. Instead of trying to justify this comment in your defense, you actually said that you didn't advocate lynching OpZ 100%, but rather wanted to keep us on our toes. I know I should be wary of OpZ lying, but it's pretty clear from the bolded parts of your statement that you want OpZ dead for one reason or another. On top of that, you voted OpZ and tried to say you were abstaining. I just don't see the logic behind it at all, and your defense didn't adequately cover this most pressing point.
My stance on Opz hasn't really changed the whole game. Look at the posts I've made regarding Opz, most of which were subtle critical yet light in emotion. I respect Opz as a player and I usually align with him indirectly in most cases. I want people to be aware of every possibility presented against them, and Opz has given something valuable to the town. I don't want him dead and I'm not pushing for a bandwagon against him. If you want to keep arguing about posting habits since we have sooooo much information for this double lynch then go for it. It's not going to result in flipping mafia members since they're clearly not threatened. They're the ones acting calm and spitting out small tidbits of information to misguide the town.
Did I do that? No. I didn't. I took the time to provide an example of a scenario when this type of claim has occured before. It's entirely possible that Opz is lying. If I wanted to "finish the job" why would I mysteriously push for him in a lynch when there's other candidates who could quite possibly be pro-town as well. I don't think anybody who's really been in the spotlight today is mafia, and this wealth of information isn't definite. We were promised to have an easy day for a double lynch, yet we're bickering until the last minute and new suspects are rising AFTER THE FACT.
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On October 12 2010 07:17 Amber[LighT] wrote:
I didn't bring up Opz as a suspect because I think absolutely 100% he is lying. I want people to think about EVERYTHING that's going on. It's posts like yours (Opz) which quickly drown in this game because people are so caught up in hypothetical nonsense. We want to focus on how the game progresses day by day, yet the minute someone dares to challenge what someone says the town is in uproar because it's just preposterous. Are you guys aware that this game is entirely based upon deceit? You must be at least a little bit suspicious. Does that mean lynch Opz? No! It means think about everything that's presented. Then we won't waste double lynches like this.
On October 12 2010 07:20 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Just looked at the vote tally if I die tonight this town is more stupid than I originally thought, and this mafia team is very well established. How I went from not even having a mention to beating someone in votes to a person who should have died yesterday is beyond my own comprehension.
Amber[LighT], you haven't presented anything that we can take to be SOLID evidence against ~OpZ~. If it's just a hunch, then that's not a lot to go on...
On October 12 2010 07:17 Amber[LighT] wrote:
This won't end well if I get lynched
On October 12 2010 07:20 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Maybe my outlandish and ridiculous statements will be taken more seriously.
Are you soft-claiming Blue?? What is it that you're trying to say? At the very least, who are your suspects?
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On October 12 2010 04:55 drag_ wrote:Ok, I did some voting analysis for what it's worth. There a lot of assumptions, but here goes: Firstly, some assumptions. The mafia has 5 votes. I think it's fair to say that they clearly do not vote in one big block. However I think it's also fair to say that they don't vote for 5 different guys completely randomly. My guess would be that the mafia may be split into 2 or 3 groups - where each day 2 people will vote for the guy they want to hit to make sure he dies, and the others will vote relatively randomly to prevent any sort of pattern emerging. This could be true because the mafia will never stay in one group, because if one gets caught then it makes it much easier to find the rest. This is all theory - no factual evidence to support this, but I think it could possibly make sense. Therefore, to identify some clue of who the mafia is we need to look at someone who votes for the person killed, and then votes for someone on pretty weak evidence. However this is far too general, and cannot be conclusive. However the vote for the double lynch just passed yesterday gaining exactly the 12 votes needed. Now there were 20 voters yesterday - I will not include myself because I'm confident in my not being red. If we look at around two hours before the vote there are three votes for double lynch that come in the space of 15 mins. Now there is nothing overly suspicious of this, except that all three of these people had voted before with who they wanted to lynch and then as it seemed the double would not pass they support it. These are: LSB Sinquity Crisis_ Now just for fun I'll do a little probing into each of them. I'm unsure about LSB - he didn't make a vote first day so it's hard to analyze what the rationale behind his vote was. Crisis_: He follows the same pattern of voting for the person who gets lynched, and then voting seemingly randomly. He votes for protactinium, and then he is the ONLY person to vote for BillMurray. He once again posts his vote before giving a reason. His explanation is also not very convincing: Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:40 Crisis_ wrote:My suspect list: I think the top suspects are those that receive accusation, and only surface when they're being threatened. CynanMachineHas been making mostly defensive posts with flawed arguments (sometimes even just brushing them off like they're not legitimate), some such as: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=43#845ghrurhttp://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38#741Talks a lot about how a red would play. People will relate others based on the role they actually are. They will think in that mindset. Bill MurrayUgh... a lot of spam, and an iffy plan...? I doubt there's more than one VI, and it seems like BM does this a lot in every mafia game he plays, so it's "normal" play for him. I'd just be okay with lynching him to get rid of the spam, but I know that's not really the best choice. I think he's more town than mafia. He posts this after his vote. This is not an explanation of any detail. He later claims he will change his vote, but of course he does not. However, he does participate in the voting thread again. This clearly means that he hasn't forgotten, but has no intentions of switching his vote. At 8:49 at the end of Day 2 he makes this post Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:49 Crisis_ wrote:On October 09 2010 09:44 Pandain wrote:
Crisis, while your online, vote for double lynch Okay, I'll consider it. Can you clarify this for me, though? Will the double lynch occur tonight or tomorrow if it passes? From this we know that he is aware Panda is online, and Panda replies to his question 3 minutes later, yet it takes Crisis a full 1 and a half to change his post, and he provides 0 reasoning for it. This makes it seem as if he is asking someone else about the double lynch. His vote change is at the same time as Sinquinity's. To me it appears that he was waited for Sinquinity to reply to his question about the double lynch, and getting the go ahead from siniquity, he changes his vote. From the time of their posts we can tell that they were online at the same time. Sin had not posted for awhile, while we know that Crisis had been online for a long time. There is very little reason I can see for the delay in Crisis changing his vote, unless he was waiting for something, like Sin answering his question. This may also explain Sin's post including Xellin. A potential scenario: Sin replies to Crisis to vote for the double. Sin then sees it might not past and wants to vote for it to create a bandwagon effect, or just for some insurance. However he sees the proximity of their posts and sees this could be a link between them. He puts in the bit about Xellin as a cover story. The above is merely theory, and of course cannot be proven. However, I felt like it was an interesting idea, and wanted to share it. That said I'm suspicious of crisis and siniquity until they can prove otherwise.
Thank you! I completely agree on this analysis. He votes, and then provides no analysis to prove it. As I've also stated before in my previous analysis, he doesn't provide any benefit in the town and seems to be content to vote AT THE LAST MINUTE. Along with the bandwagoning without reason, he definitely seems suspicious to me. Not to mention, his bandwagoning, as you've pointed out, seems to show traits of communication. Now, example of another useless post:
On October 09 2010 09:40 Crisis_ wrote:My suspect list: I think the top suspects are those that receive accusation, and only surface when they're being threatened. CynanMachineHas been making mostly defensive posts with flawed arguments (sometimes even just brushing them off like they're not legitimate), some such as: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=43#845ghrurhttp://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38#741Talks a lot about how a red would play. People will relate others based on the role they actually are. They will think in that mindset. Bill MurrayUgh... a lot of spam, and an iffy plan...? I doubt there's more than one VI, and it seems like BM does this a lot in every mafia game he plays, so it's "normal" play for him. I'd just be okay with lynching him to get rid of the spam, but I know that's not really the best choice. I think he's more town than mafia.
That's how he justifies his vote. The weird thing, he states I think he's more town than mafia when talking about Bill Murray... yet he votes for him anyway. Hmmm, suspicious much? Why would you vote for someone who you think is town? Or someone who you might guess as VI? Furthermore, where's the analysis that shows BM as either?
Now, I've read some posts saying, it could be he's new. Let me remind you guys though, he's been here since 2008 for christ's sake. He can't be THAT new. He's got to have read some Mafia threads in his time here. Could all his "mistakes" or useless posts like
On October 07 2010 14:54 Crisis_ wrote:
So about my "rock and hard place" comment, I was talking about how I was 2nd on the votelist, and I didn't have much of a choice, otherwise I would have been lynched. Why would I want to die on day 1?...
Oh and if you don't believe I'm not red, you can go ahead and lynch me to find out. Sheesh.
be from his noobiness? I doubt it. I suspected Crisis_ yesterday, I still suspect him today.
Also, I'm inactive because I'm in 11th grade with the PSAT coming up. I kind of want to get National Merit Scholar Seminfinalist so I'm trying to spend as much time as I can studying for it. Therefore, sorry if I'm not active. I need to study. >_<
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On October 12 2010 07:58 ghrur wrote:
Also, I'm inactive because I'm in 11th grade with the PSAT coming up. I kind of want to get National Merit Scholar Seminfinalist so I'm trying to spend as much time as I can studying for it. Therefore, sorry if I'm not active. I need to study. >_<
Hey, no we can respect that! =) That's a really great goal to strive for. Good luck with your exams! Just make sure to log your votes so you don't get modkilled!
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EPT
