EPTI'm really really really suspicious of SINiquity. If he doesn't adequately defend himself before this lynch I think he is a better candidate than Misder but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt for the time being.
TL Mafia XXXI - Page 44
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
I'm really really really suspicious of SINiquity. If he doesn't adequately defend himself before this lynch I think he is a better candidate than Misder but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt for the time being. | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
Strangely enough I find myself agreeing with BM's take on Happy.fairytail and BC. I'm going to completely ignore the Role PM controversy (with the whole TOWN vs CITIZEN thing) as even if it wasn't a miscommunication, in my opinion BM comes out on top simply because it is slightly suspicious. I would like to say this, I've been pretty inactive this day but I find that Misder's posts during day 1 have been consistent with not wanting to lynch without reasons. Eventually he gradually admits that he wouldn't want to lynch an inactive but votes for Xelin and then switches to Opz because he was inactive as well. This to me screams timid town role behaviour rather than mafia simply because his votes aren't quite bandwagonesque. In this case I believe that NuketheBunnys if mafia. On October 08 2010 00:12 NukeTheBunnys wrote: Wow spam much. Right now I'm thinking Bill is either A. a second village idiot, or B. mafia trying to hide behind the fear of a second village idiot. Its very tempting to vote for him regardless just to get the spam to stop. I really don't understand why he is bragging about convincing everyone(myself included) to vote for the village idiot. Hurrr I made us lose on the first day Im a good player Hurrrrrrrr. It's pretty unlikely for there to be a second village idiot so it seems that NuketheBunnys is implicitly stating that Bill is mafia. The reason why I picked this out is because one of the easiest posts for mafia to make that seems like content is giving an opinion on someone's role. (ex: He just seems like mafia to me. As for the role PM's I think people are just trying to confuse everyone. Even if some one is helping brown bear host, I seriously doubt that he would send out half the role PMs, and some one else would send out the other half. I think anyone(read: Opz) claiming that their PM was not sent by brownbear is very suspicious. Im not going to get nitpicking about the town/townie distinction as they are commonly interchangeable. He's unclear here about who these people are that are trying to confuse "everyone". However he seems to unknowingly (?) agree with Bill Murray that BloodyC0bbler's PM was highly suspicious yet clearly as shown elsewhere, he dislikes the way Bill Murray comes about with this information (ex:spam) which is highly understandable. My next step is to go reread the past 7 pages completely ignoring everything Bill said and see if it makes any more sense. Then again maybe I should go back and point out the inconsistencies in his spam as Im sure I could find quite a few Most likely an empty promise to read back but what troubles me is the fact that he's going to ignore Bill Murray's posts even though he thinks that Bill Murray is either VI or Mafia. If he was either of these would someone rather not do a post analysis? This is strange behaviour as the entire goal of mafia is to lynch the mafia but he says that he MIGHT go back and read BM's posts. Just an inconsistency I found that once again points to wanting to fit in with the town and perhaps get by to the next day undetected. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
VOTE FOR DOUBLE LYNCH | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
As for the double lynch, I find myself ageeing. At first, I didn't think we would have enough info, but now, with all the analysis that is going on, plus the night, I think we will be able to deduce the mafia. Of course, we have to be careful, no more careless mistakes. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 09 2010 07:49 BrownBear wrote: A disclaimer: Since it is Friday night, the night post might be a little late. I will not accept votes timestamped after the night ends, but I might be out blazed in the woods somewhere at midnight, so won't be able to write up the post. It will happen though, don't worry aw what about artanis? | ||
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kingjames01
Canada1603 Posts
On October 08 2010 18:51 kingjames01 wrote: + Show Spoiler + CynanMachae October 06 2010 10:18. ##Vote Padain Cumulative Votes: (2:42 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 What I have noticed while summarizing this information: - Protactinium only had 1 vote until less than 3 hours remaining - Bill Murray voted first for Protactinium with almost 25 hours remaining - When the votes started coming in for Protactinium, two players were at-risk of being lynched: Crisis_ and CynanMachae with 3 votes each - CynanMachae had received his 3rd vote first thus placing him on the chopping block according to the rule clarified by Artanis[Xp] mid-game After this point, the order of voting was: - CynanMachae ##Vote Padain (2:42 remaining) Comment: You were in the lead and headed to the gallows. With only 2:42 left before nightfall, why did you not vote for Crisis_ so that you were not in the lead??? Is it possible that you DON'T want Crisis_ to be lynched? HE WAS GOING TO GET LYNCHED AND DID NOT VOTE TO SAVE HIMSELF. Think about that. If you want to stay in the game, there's only one correct play. You vote for the other guy. The only way that this is understandable is if: A) He WANTS to be lynched. B) He KNOWS he's not going to be lynched. Let's examine his defence. On October 09 2010 03:56 CynanMachae wrote: So you are basically saying that out of the 4 mafias leftover (since i would be the 5th one), I knew that they would swing it over by all voting for someone else and saving me? Seems a pretty dumb mafia move right there with the 6 voters on Protactanium and bumatlarge being a confirmed green. I didn't feel threatened cause the 3 votes I had happened very early on with quite bad reasons and the rest of the thread was about others suspects/inactives pretty much. 3 hours is quite a lot of time if I come back and see I'm getting the rest of the votes. On October 08 2010 18:51 kingjames01 wrote: Anyway, I'd like to sum up the voting from the first day and what information I can glean out of it. Please add to, refute, expand or whatever to this discussion: - The first day we lynched the Village Idiot, Protactinium. What can we learn? - There were 5 mafia and 20 non-mafia to begin the game - Protactinium was the Village Idiot and thus non-mafia - Mafia knew that he was non-mafia but not which role and thus a candidate to vote for the lynch - 6 votes went to Protactinium so at most 5 votes came from the mafia Now, I'd like to suggest that we look really closely at Crisis_, CynanMachae, ghrur and infinitestory. What I have noticed while summarizing this information: - Protactinium only had 1 vote until less than 3 hours remaining - Bill Murray voted first for Protactinium with almost 25 hours remaining - When the votes started coming in for Protactinium, two players were at-risk of being lynched: Crisis_ and CynanMachae with 3 votes each - CynanMachae had received his 3rd vote first thus placing him on the chopping block according to the rule clarified by Artanis[Xp] mid-game After this point, the order of voting was: - CynanMachae ##Vote Padain (2:42 remaining) Comment: You were in the lead and headed to the gallows. With only 2:42 left before nightfall, why did you not vote for Crisis_ so that you were not in the lead??? Is it possible that you DON'T want Crisis_ to be lynched? - ghrur ##vote protactinium (2:24 remaining) - infinitestory ##vote proactinium (2:11 remaining) Comment: Twenty minutes apart, two votes come in to make 3 players tied in votes. Interesting. Coincidence or not? I will continue and see if a pattern emerges. SiNiquity ##vote protactinium (1:46 remaining) Comment: New leader in the votes NukeTheBunnys changing vote (##Unvote CynanMachae) ##vote Protactinium (0:53 remaining) Comment: NukeTheBunnys removes CynanMachae out of the running to be lynched and moves Protactinium ahead of Crisis_. Now, even if Crisis_ receives an extra vote, Protactinium will still be lynched since he reached 4 votes first. This seems to be in line with CynanMachae's earlier play. Crisis_ ##Vote Protactinium (0:44 remaining) Comment: This vote could be made to save himself even though he is behind at this point. Again, this seems to be along the same thought process as CynanMachae's earlier vote. infinitestory ##Unvote (Protactinium) ##Vote: JeeJee (0:26 remaining) Comment: If I were to analyze this vote in terms of what has been written above, then it seems now that Protactinium is ahead in the voting and neither CynanMachae nor Crisis_ are at risk, infinitestory retracts his earlier vote and votes for someone who can not be lynched with only 1 vote. Why waste your vote with less than half an hour left? Is this coincidence or is this a purposeful move to cover your earlier vote? bumatlarge ##vote protactinium (0:03 remaining) Comment: bumatlarge turns out to be a Green and so there is no malice in this vote. CynanMachae's defence is that to claim mafia would not expend 4 votes to save one person so it can't be true. But what if the mafia thought they could save 2 of their own? CynanMachae and Crisis_? That's the difference between 2 Kills and 1 Kill a night... Doesn't this warrant more attention from us? Now, I'm going to go on the record and say that I don't think that CynanMachae is mafia. From his defence post, which I truncated, I think that he didn't realize how close he was to being lynched or the best play to save himself. I think he made a mistake but won't admit to it now. I'd like another explanation please. Did you REALLY gamble on your fate because you GUESSED that someone else would earn 6 more votes (one was repealed)? That seems too flimsy to let pass. Now, I want to make my real point. There's something really wrong about what's going on in the last few hours. It seems to me that there's a lot of posturing or manipulation going on in plain sight. XeliN and NukeTheBunnys are attacking each other and everyone else is staying silent. What are we hoping for? That one or both are mafia and might slip up? Pandain is applying pressure to CynanMachae to get him to open up. DoctorHelvetica weighs in and suggests infinitestory or SiNiquity. CynanMachae defends himself but not completely and then Pandain decides to back down and starts to look at infinitestory. DoctorHelvetica chimes in and says to look at SiNiquity. After Pandain takes a good look at infinitestory he concludes that there is not enough to go on and implies that the suggestion to investigate SiNiquity is a valid one but won't make the effort. Why is DoctorHelvetica calling the shots? What did I miss? Has DoctorHelvetica been confirmed as Blue? I may not be experienced but I feel as though we are being manipulated. He comes into the thread, makes some suggestions about other players and disappears letting others do the work. If he cares so much about finding proof against infinitestory or SiNiquity then why doesn't he do the work himself? Now he's gone and started a bandwagon against Misder. This is ludicrous. My suggestion is for the Detective to check him tonight. Unfortunatly, there's no way for the detective to reveal DoctorHelvetica's role without putting himself at risk. Without the ability to PM, we need to keep the Detective hidden. Has anyone ever played a game without PM's? How do we use the Detective? | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
Artanis is a myth. Artanis does not exist. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 09 2010 08:04 kingjames01 wrote: We need to hold on a second here. First, a HUGE discrepancy in CynanMachae's play was found. There was less than 3 hours left in the vote and he was first in line to be lynched. His best play was to vote for Crisis_ and he didn't. HE WAS GOING TO GET LYNCHED AND DID NOT VOTE TO SAVE HIMSELF. Think about that. If you want to stay in the game, there's only one correct play. You vote for the other guy. The only way that this is understandable is if: A) He WANTS to be lynched. B) He KNOWS he's not going to be lynched. Let's examine his defence. CynanMachae's defence is that to claim mafia would not expend 4 votes to save one person so it can't be true. But what if the mafia thought they could save 2 of their own? CynanMachae and Crisis_? That's the difference between 2 Kills and 1 Kill a night... Doesn't this warrant more attention from us? Now, I'm going to go on the record and say that I don't think that CynanMachae is mafia. From his defence post, which I truncated, I think that he didn't realize how close he was to being lynched or the best play to save himself. I think he made a mistake but won't admit to it now. I'd like another explanation please. Did you REALLY gamble on your fate because you GUESSED that someone else would earn 6 more votes (one was repealed)? That seems too flimsy to let pass. Now, I want to make my real point. There's something really wrong about what's going on in the last few hours. It seems to me that there's a lot of posturing or manipulation going on in plain sight. XeliN and NukeTheBunnys are attacking each other and everyone else is staying silent. What are we hoping for? That one or both are mafia and might slip up? Pandain is applying pressure to CynanMachae to get him to open up. DoctorHelvetica weighs in and suggests infinitestory or SiNiquity. CynanMachae defends himself but not completely and then Pandain decides to back down and starts to look at infinitestory. DoctorHelvetica chimes in and says to look at SiNiquity. After Pandain takes a good look at infinitestory he concludes that there is not enough to go on and implies that the suggestion to investigate SiNiquity is a valid one but won't make the effort. Why is DoctorHelvetica calling the shots? What did I miss? Has DoctorHelvetica been confirmed as Blue? I may not be experienced but I feel as though we are being manipulated. He comes into the thread, makes some suggestions about other players and disappears letting others do the work. If he cares so much about finding proof against infinitestory or SiNiquity then why doesn't he do the work himself? Now he's gone and started a bandwagon against Misder. This is ludicrous. My suggestion is for the Detective to check him tonight. Unfortunatly, there's no way for the detective to reveal DoctorHelvetica's role without putting himself at risk. Without the ability to PM, we need to keep the Detective hidden. Has anyone ever played a game without PM's? How do we use the Detective? I've said I'll be doing deeper analysis later today. I actually have quite a bit to do today and I'm not prepared to make a big post yet. It's coming. | ||
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NukeTheBunnys
United States1004 Posts
On October 09 2010 07:00 SouthRawrea wrote: AH forgot about this game totally with getting my haircut and preparing for other stuff and what not :/. Strangely enough I find myself agreeing with BM's take on Happy.fairytail and BC. I'm going to completely ignore the Role PM controversy (with the whole TOWN vs CITIZEN thing) as even if it wasn't a miscommunication, in my opinion BM comes out on top simply because it is slightly suspicious. I would like to say this, I've been pretty inactive this day but I find that Misder's posts during day 1 have been consistent with not wanting to lynch without reasons. Eventually he gradually admits that he wouldn't want to lynch an inactive but votes for Xelin and then switches to Opz because he was inactive as well. This to me screams timid town role behaviour rather than mafia simply because his votes aren't quite bandwagonesque. In this case I believe that NuketheBunnys if mafia. I said that I wanted to ignore bill's posts because his spam is so disruptive and confusing that it threw me off reading every one else's posts. I also didnt have time to go check out the posts in more detail until now because I was at work and over the past 10 or so pages about half of the posts have been his. So without further adu, the train wreak that is bill murrays recent posts On October 05 2010 12:12 Bill Murray wrote: I'm here. I just started my first day of work, so I don't know if I'll be able to be as active as I have in the past. Haven't gotten to read the thread yet, as I just worked a twelve hour day, but I promise I'll make an informed post tomorrow. Nothing wrong here, seems like a valid reason for not posting/being inactive On October 06 2010 08:21 Bill Murray wrote: At a glance, I see that people have been editing. I am not a fan of that. I see DoctorH is being active. That may or may not be a good thing. I am going to go read the thread and get off the inactive list. I'll make an informed post in a moment... possibly an hour. Yells at people for editing, and later does it himself States that he has posted, but really has posted zero content up to this point On October 06 2010 09:18 Bill Murray wrote: i like this kingjames guy. i'm also happy with amber and pandain so far. On October 06 2010 09:19 Bill Murray wrote: I did pick up on that, but Pandain could just as easily be a Detective trying to defend someone, or a townie with a loud mouth. Talks about pandain being the detective before there is any real evidence to point to this On October 06 2010 09:34 Bill Murray wrote: first off: @NukeTheBunnys, do you even read the thread? Buddying. At least to me it is. Admittedly, Mafia buddy town all the time, but if Misder flips scum so will ~OpZ~. Therefore, I am considering voting Misder. To all the people hunting for the DT, posting about "strategy" in relation to lynches, and cluttering up the thread with speculation and policy: most of you will be the M words of mafia. I'm talking to you, Amber, Protactinium, Misder, Happy.Fairytaile, ~OpZ~, SouthRawrea, and Crisis_ Furthermore, I like this post. It shows that DoctorH and I are on the same page. I am not sure as to his role, but I am pretty sure he is Town. Detectives typically defend people they find to be town. Combine that with his beating himself up over changing his vote to OpZ, your fishing for why I feel he's DT (when you know my actions are money as fuck), your DT fishing on your own earlier in the thread, and I present to you Bill Murray's first mafia catch of the game: Protactinium. Points: 1) as seen from the TL Mafia game I hosted, he is fitting in with his mafia meta. He makes huge "pro-town" posts as mafia. As town he is way more argumentative. I can provide the difference, but I would have to indicate who he is. 2) he is a fucking smurf who has another name on this site 3) He was fishing for the DT and "discussing" who the DT was, how to find him, and what he should do 4) He was curious as to how I knew Pandain was the DT when he knows I am a good player vote to lynch protactinium alright, here is the first major content post. I dont really see how he gets that misder is budding with opz from this. makes a rational statement about not voting random and bandwagoning. and finally votes to kill who would be reviled to be the village idiot. Uses information(pro's main id) that no one else has access to as evidence. On October 06 2010 09:47 Bill Murray wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=133561 Protactinium is scum, guys, honestly Points out a game he ran where protactinium was town. Somehow this proves he is scum On October 06 2010 09:47 Bill Murray wrote: that or he's one really good village idiot which turns out to be true On October 06 2010 10:11 Bill Murray wrote: OK. It's not fair. If I want to meta him, and provide both town and mafia games, I have to say who he is. That is NOT FAIR to me making a case on him. He wants to out protactinium's main ID, but never does, even after pro says its ok for anyone to do so. On October 06 2010 13:50 Bill Murray wrote: Well, I knew he was anti-town what do you all expect? lol calls his lynch of villiage idiot a success. Yes he is anti-town, but he is also anti-mafia On October 06 2010 13:58 Bill Murray wrote: I posted the original post I posted here on the start of the next page, with an apology. The original edit was really just a cute strikeout which siniquity quoted, so you get to read that. Again, sorry. Edits his posts On October 06 2010 14:02 Bill Murray wrote: if we're restarting, can i not be a townie? claims town, and wants to restart(ie doesnt want to play) On October 06 2010 14:02 Bill Murray wrote: aasdf the definition of spam On October 06 2010 14:03 Bill Murray wrote: I am obviously tore up that I influenced the lynch of the village idiot, and though he is not-town, I feel bad for us as a whole. I had originally thought the game was going to end/restart, and that the roles had not gone out, to where it would be OK to edit. Sorry. tries to defend his editing. Thought that game would restart, even though brown bear had already said we were going to keep playing. On October 06 2010 14:05 Bill Murray wrote: me stop spamming is like asking you to not be asian or smurf refuses to stop spamming On October 06 2010 14:21 Bill Murray wrote: brownbear you should just rehost tbh whines more about restarting On October 06 2010 14:58 Bill Murray wrote: what is scumhunting? Finding anti-town roles he was an anti-town role, he played EXACTLY like he does when he has an anti-town role. I scumhunted well. Sorry you're jealous. continuing to defend finding a anti-mafia role(see what I did there) alright I cant keep doing this much detail, too much spam On October 07 2010 13:58 Bill Murray wrote: lets have an open roleclaim. BC, you first. I'm town, but I'm not saying what at this point people can say "no, we shouldn't roleclaim, it is way too early". I just want people to claim town/townie, not what role they are. If I was mafia, I wouldn't have the balls to say this. This is too obvious to be the play of mafia. Lynch BC if I get mislynched. If he flips red, look at ~OpZ~ and DoctorH. If you all want to win, listen to me. Claim. I'm claiming town. We need to consolidate through claims. Trust me on this one, and we will have a good game. Tries to convince everyone to role claim. I dont see this helping anyone but the reds, its not as if some one is going to claim mafia, and some one might be dumb enough to honestly answer blue. At this point he starts double time spamming, and trying to confuse people with the whole town townie stuff in the PMs. Most pages had only 2-3 comments that were not his. BB tells him to stop and threatens to modkill if he continues with spam On October 07 2010 13:35 Bill Murray wrote: This shows to me that the person who is putting the hits in sucks at blue sniping. Let me decide who is high tier enough to call the shots yet not hit a blue. 1. LSB 3. Bill Murray 4. Pandain 5. SouthRawrea 6. Amber[LighT] 7. Infundibulum 8. Divinek 9. Misder 10.SINiquity 11.XeliN 12.RebirthOfLegend 13.~OpZ~ 14.DoctorHelvetica 15.infinitestory 16.cSc ->17. 18.NukeTheBunnys 19.Crisis_ 20.drag_ 21.CynanMachae 22.meeple 23.kingjames01 24.ghrur Doing an iso on slot 17 I have viewed this post as gloating, and rolefishing. Why would BloodyC0bbler have reason to be fishing for a medic? Consider the fact that Happy.Fairytale was spouting babble about the DT, and I am very happy voting to lynch slot 17 which was Happy.Fairytale and is now BloodyC0bbler. Posts 234/235 by Happy.Fairytale were posts to fake being useful to the town Post 255 is him fishing for Detectives through number "analysis" Post 257 by Happy.Fairytale: Please read this+ Show Spoiler + On October 05 2010 23:19 Happy.fairytail wrote: Yeah, I'm pretty concerned that we could potentially have 8 mod deaths by the end of today. (Not worried about Bill Murray and Cynan, it seems they're around and will post in time) Also, in terms of accusations, I think we should start now. We only have 14 hours before the day ends, so we should give a few hours to accusations, a few hours to defending, a few hours to some townsperson deliberation, and a few hours to vote. So inactives, now is the time for you guys to start speaking up. I'm going to point out JeeJee just 'cuz he's at the top of the inactive list, and I know he's around because I just checked his post history and his last post was 10 hrs ago (13:09 TL time). So speak up man. This shows that he is just talking for the sake of talking. This makes the second time in a row he has posted right after his original post. If he was town, he would only need one really lengthy post, or a string of spam. I believe he is putting on a false face. I hope that you all will be convinced of Happy.Fairytale/BloodyC0bbler (remember, they're the same person as the slot) being scum. BC's play is a LOT weaker as scum based upon meta, and his play this game is so weak I wasn't even sure he was even IN the game. These two things are nearly an open contradiction. "I haven't read 12 pages" followed immediately by 35 minutes and then "I had all this analysis done on this awesome spreadsheet". BULLSHIT. Lynch BloodyC0bbler. Alright we now have a good content post. Criticies BC for "talking for the sake of talking" states that double posting means he is mafia On October 07 2010 16:17 Bill Murray wrote: @mod may I edit in spoilers? pm me an answer, pretty sure I'm going to bed. I'd like to not clutter up the thread because I didn't spoiler my original post. Sorry BB. wants to edit his posts and not get in trouble for it he waits a page then posts 6 times in a row, one of which he says he is going to do an analysis of me and he never does On October 08 2010 16:24 Bill Murray wrote: FROM MY PERSPECTIVE: BC is mafia forced to resorting to ad hom to attack me, because his play is terrible. DoctorH is CONFIRMED because he claimed town, and is likely a townie  infinitestory is CONFIRMED because he claimed town and is likely a townie! Divinek is being very confused and that indicates to me he isn't red Amber is very possibly a red Nuke is scummy, but I'm not sure if he is scum. I would be ok lynching him. Bill Murray - I am not a crook Pandain - I want to see more from him SouthRawrea - I don't believe he's playing to his mafia meta Misder - great lynch here. squirmy is his mafia meta. SINiquity - he's either something like a hatter, mafia, or he got his PM from Artanis. IDK! I'd lynch him in a heartbeat. XeliN - I believe he's a townie, or a clever mafia. Doubt he's blue. OpZ - blue/mafia cSc - who? worthy of a lynch just because I don't know who he is Crisis_ - terribly scummy scum Drag_ - confused VI cynanmachae - likely mafia meeple - felt like an uninterested townie, but when i'm in the game he always tunnels on me. i actually have a fairly tough time reading meeple to be a particular color. kingjames01 - seemed town to me ghrur - possibly scum, not sure states his views on various players On October 08 2010 16:27 Bill Murray wrote: If anything your support of me should confirm you as a player. You were the only person to really pick up on what I was saying, other than perhaps InfiniteStory. I'd like to hear more on what he meant. I doubt he was claiming town as blue, but was claiming "town" as green. That's what I was doing, because it is a good strategy to weed out the greens through the word "town" buddies up with xelin even more On October 08 2010 17:10 Bill Murray wrote: is kane]deth[ or RoL playing? kane]deth[ voted lol he apparently wants to double lynch Can we wagon NukeTheBunnys? wants to wagon me, up to this point has not said anything about me other then "he is scummy" everything else is spam. Honestly after going back and looking at all this again Im not so sure that he is mafia or a VI, but he is just a green that doesn't want to play and is trying to end the game as fast as possible so he can get into another game where he has a role. In my eyes that makes him the perfect target for a double lynch tomorrow. I am going to vote double lynch and spend some more time trying to pick who to kill tonight | ||
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kingjames01
Canada1603 Posts
Someone explain to me why we should take a risk with this. I've already asked and we can't take it back tomorrow. Is the plan to use one of the kills on Bill Murray if he doesn't get killed tonight, like Pandain and NukeTheBunnys had suggested? I'm still not convinced that he's Red. What if he's a second Village Idiot? What if he was just really excited because he thought that he could single-handedly corral all of the mafia? Give me a good reason or I'm going to abstain from that vote. Also, I don't understand how not voting Double Lynch is anti-town. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
On October 09 2010 08:20 kingjames01 wrote: Maybe I don't understand something but a lot of people seem to think that Double Lynching tomorrow night is a good idea. At first, I thought that this would just be something that mafia would support since it's so early. However, there are now 8 votes in favour of the Double Lynch. Someone explain to me why we should take a risk with this. I've already asked and we can't take it back tomorrow. Is the plan to use one of the kills on Bill Murray if he doesn't get killed tonight, like Pandain and NukeTheBunnys had suggested? I'm still not convinced that he's Red. What if he's a second Village Idiot? What if he was just really excited because he thought that he could single-handedly corral all of the mafia? Give me a good reason or I'm going to abstain from that vote. Also, I don't understand how not voting Double Lynch is anti-town. If he's VI, than unless the mafia get EXTREMELY lucky and roleblock the vigi he will die. It's true, we are taking a slight risk. But a very small one. But the possibility that he's VI AND the vigi get's roleblocked is less than .01% asumming an equal chance of everything. Of course analysis can find things pure statistics can, think about that. Do you really think we're not going to have enough info by tommorow? With a (hopefully) vigi kill, this lynch, all the previous info, and possibly a dt check? | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
 . You did provide a conclusion at the end which was essential but it'd be nice if you could link it all together. | ||
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CynanMachae
Canada1459 Posts
On October 09 2010 08:04 kingjames01 wrote: Now, I'm going to go on the record and say that I don't think that CynanMachae is mafia. From his defence post, which I truncated, I think that he didn't realize how close he was to being lynched or the best play to save himself. I think he made a mistake but won't admit to it now. I'd like another explanation please. Did you REALLY gamble on your fate because you GUESSED that someone else would earn 6 more votes (one was repealed)? That seems too flimsy to let pass. Wut? 6 more votes? From what I recall I was at 3 with some people at 2 and 1 at that point. That's 1-2 votes needed to TIE me and then if needed I could save myself. No I didn't think I was threatened. | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
Crisis_ posts in TL Mafia: On October 05 2010 12:03 Crisis_ wrote: I'm in favor of voting inactives. It forces people to talk, leading to more communication. As mentioned before, communication is a step forward in helping us to determine scum. As for the DTs, I agree with most of this. A DT that plays the role of a proactive townie will be diffused amongst the crowd, instead of being a sitting duck to the mafia's quiet-sniping tendencies. Note this quick tip to the DTs. It seems like a good tip, and it is, but it’s really obvious. In fact, it’s posted in the TL Mafia Rules and Tips thread. It doesn’t really provide any content. Therefore, posting tips on how to play DT… without really giving good tips. Hmm, luring? On October 05 2010 14:05 Crisis_ wrote: How nice of you to vote for me. Glad to know that your vote will be a waste, since: 1. I am participating in active discussion to try to help town and give advice to the DT, I wouldn't be doing this if I were scum. 2. There are better candidates to be lynched, i.e. inactives. On October 06 2010 00:29 Crisis_ wrote: Well, these inactives are the candidates that I'm in favor of voting of. And yea, I'm new, so I'm probably shit at this game rofl. I wouldn't be surprised if I screwed up the whole game. I've attempted to give advice to the DT, but now I'm not so sure if it was a great idea or not. Now note these two tips. He uses activity as a reason for not being lynched… not a good reason as he’s not really CONTRIBUTING. Then, he first stated he’s giving advice to the DT, but in his second post, he pre-empts people saying he really didn’t contribute by saying the DT advice might not have been good. Contradiction? Yup. However, note that he pre-empts criticism by saying “I’m new.” It helps give him a reason for why he’s not posting any helpful content. Now, he also states we should lynch inactives. Well… he doesn’t state who at all! Inactives, okay, who and why? Why would you suggest for us to just lynch a group of people without analysis? That’s like asking for us to kill off townies. Not pro-town at all. On October 06 2010 12:12 Crisis_ wrote: Crisis here. Wow, just realized there were so many voters against me. I don't know how to not apologize without seeming like a good voting target, so I won't do it. Can you at least tell me what a good post would consist of, preferably by the end of the day? He asks what a good post consists of… but remember when I said he was here in 2008? Possibly lurking? Come on, he has to know. On October 06 2010 12:37 Crisis_ wrote: I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place. Not much else I can do. Sorry. Justification for hopping on bandwagon to lynch protact… come on, that’s pretty bad. Not to mention, he later states that it’s because he didn’t want to die on day one. Maybe it’s because Mafia likes to bandwagon, so they won’t have to give false analyses, and because they like to stay alive! Notice, also, that this same bandwagon saved Cynan. Cynan didn’t vote for Protact, though, despite him (Cynan) being on the chopping blocks. So, same bandwagon saving both people… Coincidence or Mafia spreading out their votes to make it so we don’t make that connection? On October 06 2010 12:50 Crisis_ wrote: I'll just tell you right now, I'm not red. No content. On October 06 2010 12:55 Crisis_ wrote: That's what I was hoping for. No content. On October 06 2010 12:58 Crisis_ wrote: I wasn't being serious either. No content. On October 06 2010 12:58 Crisis_ wrote: Sort of. But I'm really not red, rofl. No content. Really, 4 straight posts of spam. No defense against accusations. Jumping on bandwagon without an analysis. Seems scummy to me. On October 06 2010 13:02 Crisis_ wrote: The day's over, what do you expect. Well, I don’t know about others, but I kind of expect helpful posts. I expect people to be doing analyses. I expect people to not clutter up the thread with spam. On October 07 2010 14:54 Crisis_ wrote: So about my "rock and hard place" comment, I was talking about how I was 2nd on the votelist, and I didn't have much of a choice, otherwise I would have been lynched. Why would I want to die on day 1?... Oh and if you don't believe I'm not red, you can go ahead and lynch me to find out. Sheesh. Martyr style behavior. Once again, not good at all for the town. Once again, not a single bit of analysis or useful information. All this post does is confuse the town. If he’s a townie, it doesn’t help us. Being a martyr only risks us having to lynch him. If he’s mafia, it’s a perfect posts. He gives away no information, creates a risk for the town, and confuses the town. Furthermore, it’s on the second day so he can now vote again without justification if he wants to just stay alive. It’s the BARE minimum for staying alive as scum. Now, throughout all that, I understand there’s nothing conclusive about him being scum. My understanding is, however, that he is most probably mafia. Just look at his posting records once again. 1 post these last 2 days. He’s waiting, once again, until the last minute to vote. He has 5.5 hours. I doubt he will give proper justification. I just don’t trust that, and it really seems like scummy behavior. | ||
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kingjames01
Canada1603 Posts
On October 09 2010 08:30 Pandain wrote: If he's VI, than unless the mafia get EXTREMELY lucky and roleblock the vigi he will die. It's true, we are taking a slight risk. But a very small one. But the possibility that he's VI AND the vigi get's roleblocked is less than .01% asumming an equal chance of everything. Of course analysis can find things pure statistics can, think about that. Do you really think we're not going to have enough info by tommorow? With a (hopefully) vigi kill, this lynch, all the previous info, and possibly a dt check? So what you're saying is that with a Vigilante kill, a lynch vote, 2 mafia kills, a Detective check (also, a possibility for a Medic Save), we're going to learn a lot. Fine, I can see that. I still feel very uneasy about what's going to happen tonight. I feel like the town is quickly losing control and I want us to stop our infighting so that we can use our heads again. I have 2 questions for you: 1) Why do you assume that there is a mafia RoleBlocker? 2) Why did you stop pushing CynanMachae? I still don't think he's in the clear. | ||
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SouthRawrea
Canada608 Posts
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
On October 09 2010 08:38 kingjames01 wrote: So what you're saying is that with a Vigilante kill, a lynch vote, 2 mafia kills, a Detective check (also, a possibility for a Medic Save), we're going to learn a lot. Fine, I can see that. I still feel very uneasy about what's going to happen tonight. I feel like the town is quickly losing control and I want us to stop our infighting so that we can use our heads again. I have 2 questions for you: 1) Why do you assume that there is a mafia RoleBlocker? 2) Why did you stop pushing CynanMachae? I still don't think he's in the clear. 1.It's in the roles, but your right, theres a chance it doesn't exist. Still, all that would do is support going for double lynch since we won't have to worry about him. 2.He's not, but he defended himself well enough that I want to wait till BM's result until I re examine him. That and if I do an analysis on another person who I don't know is mafia theres the chance other people may start voting for him. | ||
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kingjames01
Canada1603 Posts
On October 09 2010 08:34 CynanMachae wrote: I don't remember who stated it earlier, but it has been suggested that if BM doesnt die tonight from mafia hits, he's gonna be a target for tomorrow's lynching. If he's the VI and mafia doesn't kill him they risk loosing tomorrow with that lynch. Wut? 6 more votes? From what I recall I was at 3 with some people at 2 and 1 at that point. That's 1-2 votes needed to TIE me and then if needed I could save myself. No I didn't think I was threatened. How could you be so nonchalant when you were in the lead with 3 votes? You're saying now, that you didn't know that you were actually TIED for first? If you voted for Crisis_ then he would have had 4 votes to your 3. If you had done the right thing then it would require 2 more votes on you for you to lose. I've tried to imagine myself in that position and I can't find ONE legitimate reason why you voted the way you did. Look at this post carefully and look at the voting pattern. On October 08 2010 18:51 kingjames01 wrote: Anyway, I'd like to sum up the voting from the first day and what information I can glean out of it. Please add to, refute, expand or whatever to this discussion: - The first day we lynched the Village Idiot, Protactinium. What can we learn? - There were 5 mafia and 20 non-mafia to begin the game - Protactinium was the Village Idiot and thus non-mafia - Mafia knew that he was non-mafia but not which role and thus a candidate to vote for the lynch - 6 votes went to Protactinium so at most 5 votes came from the mafia Now, I'd like to suggest that we look really closely at Crisis_, CynanMachae, ghrur and infinitestory. I will show why in the following discussion. To further my case I present the order of voting: + Show Spoiler + Bill Murray October 05 2010 12:12. ##vote: protactinium Cumulative Votes: (24:48 remaining) Protactinium 1 ~OpZ~ October 05 2010 12:51. ##Vote Crisis_ Cumulative Votes: (24:09 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Amber[LighT] October 05 2010 22:29. ##vote: Bill Murray Cumulative Votes: (14:31 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 01:33. Vote count has been updated. 11.5 hours remaining in this day cycle. Divinek October 06 2010 01:59. ##vote cynanmachine Cumulative Votes: (11:01 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 1 NukeTheBunnys October 06 2010 02:08. ##vote cynanmachine Cumulative Votes: (10:52 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 SouthRawrea October 06 2010 05:07. ##vote Divinek Cumulative Votes: (7:53 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 Pandain October 06 2010 05:31. ##Vote Xelin Cumulative Votes: (7:29 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 XeliN - 1 kingjames01 October 06 2010 05:34. ##Vote Crisis_ Cumulative Votes: (7:26 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 XeliN - 1 meeple October 06 2010 05:42. ##Vote Cynanmachae Cumulative Votes: (7:18 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 XeliN - 1 drag_ October 06 2010 05:57. ##Vote: kingjames01 Cumulative Votes: (7:03 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 XeliN - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Pandain October 06 2010 05:57. ##Unvote (XeliN) ##Vote Infunidibulum Cumulative Votes: (7:03 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 DoctorHelvetica October 06 2010 06:00. ##Vote JeeJee Cumulative Votes: (7:00 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 JeeJee - 1 DoctorHelvetica October 06 2010 09:08. I'm changing my vote: (##Unvote JeeJee) ##Vote Crisis_ Cumulative Votes: (3:52 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 Misder October 06 2010 09:20. ##Vote ~Opz~ Cumulative Votes: (3:40 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Bill Murray October 06 2010 09:35. ##confirm vote: protactinium (No change) Cumulative Votes: (3:25 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 CynanMachae October 06 2010 10:18. ##Vote Padain Cumulative Votes: (2:42 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 ghrur October 06 2010 10:36. ##vote protactinium Cumulative Votes: (2:24 remaining) Protactinium - 2 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 infinitestory October 06 2010 10:49. ##vote proactinium Cumulative Votes: (2:11 remaining) Protactinium - 3 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 Protactinium October 06 2010 10:59. ##Vote: XeliN Cumulative Votes: (2:01 remaining) Protactinium - 3 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 XeliN - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 11:04. Vote Count Updated. 2 hours to go. Lot of you haven't voted yet. cSc October 06 2010 11:07. ##vote bumatlarge Cumulative Votes: (1:53 remaining) Protactinium - 3 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 XeliN - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SiNiquity October 06 2010 11:14. ##vote protactinium Cumulative Votes: (1:46 remaining) Protactinium - 4 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 XeliN - 1 bumatlarge - 1 Pandain October 06 2010 11:25. ##Unvote (XeliN) (##)Vote Sinquity Cumulative Votes: (1:35 remaining) Protactinium - 4 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 11:25. VOTE UPDATED. YOU HAVE ONE HOUR NukeTheBunnys October 06 2010 12:07. changing vote (##Unvote CynanMachae) ##vote Protactinium Cumulative Votes: (0:53 remaining) Protactinium - 5 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 Infundibulum October 06 2010 12:11. ##vote ghrur Cumulative Votes: (0:49 remaining) Protactinium - 5 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 Crisis_ October 06 2010 12:16. ##Vote Protactinium Cumulative Votes: (0:44 remaining) Protactinium - 6 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 Protactinium October 06 2010 12:29. ##Vote: Crisis_ Cumulative Votes: (0:31 remaining) Protactinium - 6 Crisis_ - 4 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 infinitestory October 06 2010 12:34. ##Unvote (Protactinium) ##Vote: JeeJee Cumulative Votes: (0:26 remaining) Protactinium - 5 Crisis_ - 4 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 JeeJee - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 12:40. Votes updated for the last time before the end of the day. If you haven't voted yet, you need to do so IMMEDIATELY or risk modkill. bumatlarge October 06 2010 12:57. ##vote protactinium Cumulative Votes: (0:03 remaining) Protactinium - 6 Crisis_ - 4 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 JeeJee - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 13:00. DAY HAS ENDED. Protactinium is to be lynched. Night post coming soon. What I have noticed while summarizing this information: - Protactinium only had 1 vote until less than 3 hours remaining - Bill Murray voted first for Protactinium with almost 25 hours remaining - When the votes started coming in for Protactinium, two players were at-risk of being lynched: Crisis_ and CynanMachae with 3 votes each - CynanMachae had received his 3rd vote first thus placing him on the chopping block according to the rule clarified by Artanis[Xp] mid-game After this point, the order of voting was: - CynanMachae ##Vote Padain (2:42 remaining) Comment: You were in the lead and headed to the gallows. With only 2:42 left before nightfall, why did you not vote for Crisis_ so that you were not in the lead??? Is it possible that you DON'T want Crisis_ to be lynched? - ghrur ##vote protactinium (2:24 remaining) - infinitestory ##vote proactinium (2:11 remaining) Comment: Twenty minutes apart, two votes come in to make 3 players tied in votes. Interesting. Coincidence or not? I will continue and see if a pattern emerges. Protactinium ##Vote: XeliN (2:01 remaining) Comment: Protactinium has to opportunity to push either Crisis_ or CynanMachae further to the front of the line but declines. We understand this action afterwards when it is revealed that Protactinium is indeed the Village Idiot. (Well played, you cunning bastard.) cSc ##vote bumatlarge (1:53 remaining) Comment: Voted for a Green (which we only find out the next day) SiNiquity ##vote protactinium (1:46 remaining) Comment: New leader in the votes Pandain ##Unvote (XeliN) (##)Vote Sinquity (1:35 remaining) NukeTheBunnys changing vote (##Unvote CynanMachae) ##vote Protactinium (0:53 remaining) Comment: NukeTheBunnys removes CynanMachae out of the running to be lynched and moves Protactinium ahead of Crisis_. Now, even if Crisis_ receives an extra vote, Protactinium will still be lynched since he reached 4 votes first. This seems to be in line with CynanMachae's earlier play. Infundibulum ##vote ghrur (0:49 remaining) Comment: Infundibulum turns out to be a Green and so there is no malice in this vote. Crisis_ ##Vote Protactinium (0:44 remaining) Comment: This vote could be made to save himself even though he is behind at this point. Again, this seems to be along the same thought process as CynanMachae's earlier vote. Protactinium ##Vote: Crisis_ (0:31 remaining) Comment: It seems as though Protactinium got away with voting twice. infinitestory ##Unvote (Protactinium) ##Vote: JeeJee (0:26 remaining) Comment: If I were to analyze this vote in terms of what has been written above, then it seems now that Protactinium is ahead in the voting and neither CynanMachae nor Crisis_ are at risk, infinitestory retracts his earlier vote and votes for someone who can not be lynched with only 1 vote. Why waste your vote with less than half an hour left? Is this coincidence or is this a purposeful move to cover your earlier vote? bumatlarge ##vote protactinium (0:03 remaining) Comment: bumatlarge turns out to be a Green and so there is no malice in this vote. I posted this a while back and I gave you ample time to prepare a good defence. I even gave you a way out if you wanted it. You just had to admit that you made a mistake. At least that I could understand. There's so much going on, it's really hard to keep everything straight. However, you keep saying that even though you were in the lead, you didn't feel any pressure and that you could get yourself out at any time. | ||
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CynanMachae
Canada1459 Posts
On October 09 2010 08:50 kingjames01 wrote: I posted this a while back and I gave you ample time to prepare a good defence. I even gave you a way out if you wanted it. You just had to admit that you made a mistake. At least that I could understand. There's so much going on, it's really hard to keep everything straight. However, you keep saying that even though you were in the lead, you didn't feel any pressure and that you could get yourself out at any time. Why would I need time to say what went through my mind when I voted like I did. If you don't think that was the best descision, I'm fine with it. You are basically telling me right now that if I was mafia I could have taken an easy way out that you GAVE me so that I could explain my vote. Good job on trying to find mafias. | ||
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