EPTTL Mafia XXXI - Page 2
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On October 07 2010 14:35 infinitestory wrote: my suspects HFT/BC - Probably top of my suspect list. The contradiction BM found in HFT's posts is pretty good evidence, although I'm less convinced about BC's "rolefishing." For new players, that honestly is pretty good advice. BM - I'm torn. He did "lose" us on the first day, but he also found an anti-town. He has been acting like a village idiot with his plan to weed out greens (which I believe doesn't make any sense), but he has also provided us with a solid lead for a suspect. I think his analysis for who's anti-town is valuable, so I wouldn't vote to leech him for now. Ghrur - He did vote for Protact, but he had a reasoned post, and I think he was simply duped by Protact. I don't think he was very scummy from what I saw. cSc - He's not so much a suspect as an inactive or a newbie; I don't know if he will post his logic for bumatlarge (if he had any) or if we will get anything out of it. Crisis - his "stuck between a rock and a hard place" is pretty odd, and this post: which was made AFTER he voted protact to put himself out of the lead is also questionable. My #2 suspect, and as OpZ said, definitely needs to be in a higher light. Dr. H - Looks like he really doesn't like Misder, but I can definitely see why. I wouldn't suspect him so much because his arguments have been pretty focused and reasonable. OpZ - Narrow your suspect list. It's obvious you're good at picking out odd posts, but I want to see your top few. oh wow BM posted a lot while I was typing this up, and some of his posts look pretty inflammatory I'm upgrading BM to my #3 suspect, but I'll keep in mind what Dr. H said about BM always playing this way as town | ||
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On October 07 2010 14:46 Bill Murray wrote: You, too, infinitestory. I claim town. I have no idea where you could possibly be going with this. | ||
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On October 07 2010 14:54 Crisis_ wrote: So about my "rock and hard place" comment, I was talking about how I was 2nd on the votelist, and I didn't have much of a choice, otherwise I would have been lynched. Why would I want to die on day 1?... Oh and if you don't believe I'm not red, you can go ahead and lynch me to find out. Sheesh. Please don't martyr yourself. If you're REALLY not red, the best way you can help the rest of us non-reds is probably by putting together your own suspect list or getting an argument against someone else; dying would not be very helpful. At least discuss some of the other arguments out there. At this point, my suspicions toward you boil down to the lack of real content contribution in your posts (in otherwords, make yourself useful :D) @OpZ: wow thanks, that plus Dr. H's earlier voiced suspicions against Misder are making me consider him seriously. | ||
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On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote: I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I'm such a good target for the mafia to start a bandwagon. I don't know if this is a good thing that the town is not impulsive or a bad thing that the town doesn't really like to do analysis... (well ghrur did, and i think he makes good points). And pretty much yeah, I took a shot in the dark, and I think I pretty much shot myself instead. I find that this particular post doesn't actually say anything in his defense. If he's town, of course he should be apologetic for prior bad play (lol @ me :|). However, if he's mafia, he could try to get away with suspicious actions by calling them mistakes. This piece of a post just seems a little odd to me, because he's really pulling a roundabout defense. On October 08 2010 11:03 Misder wrote: Actually, I feel like I've been more active day 1 in this game than in the other games. But then I dropped off. Pretty much, I agree with what everyone is saying about me not posting a list of who I think is mafia is true. The list comprised of intuition, however much that matters in this game. I think this game I've tried to analyse people from my perspective of being mafia, and didn't realize that other people think differently. Well, I don't know if you still want my list from day 1 since it doesn't mean much and most of its suspicion based on intuition, but it comprised of ~Opz~, DH, and Infund. Well, we know that infund is town, so that goes to show how bad I am at scum hunting... And this may seem contridictory again, but where is kingjames? He was active day 1, and now hes gone. I'm actually pretty convinced that OpZ and DH are both good guys too. "Analyzing" people that are mafia from your perspective implies that you had logic behind it - where is that? More contradictions, I think, or you just used the wrong word. On October 08 2010 11:16 Misder wrote: Also reading Pandains posts about my previous mafia game when I was townie actually surprised me. I didn't actually think I was contributing much in BMs game, probably cause Divenek was all like, Misder doesn't post enough and such, lol. Maybe I should start doing things I have done before... I actually don't feel like I'm taking a backseat in this game though. I feel more radical in this game than in other games where in other games, I only posted things I thought I had good evidence to and things that seemed obvious to me. And I should note that when I was mafia, I also answered why I voted for people. And that my analysis on larjarse was pretty much how I would write any analysis, besides the fact that I knew he really wasnt mafia, but I did that just like I would as part of the town. Same tone as the first piece of post. Also, posting what you think you play like isn't very helpful; in fact, it just draws attention away from suspicious actions and continues to paint them as mistakes. Also, saying that you should go back to being a player who provides more evidence seems to imply that you know very well that your arguments are flimsy, or that it was done on purpose (the main thing that tripped my radar here). On October 08 2010 11:55 Misder wrote: I'm done, I think. If you guys truly believe I'm mafia, go ahead, lynch me. Again, the whole point is to lynch mafia. I'm pretty sure the points that were said that make me scummy were 1) I'm inconsistent and 2) I didn't back up my claims. Of course, these points are valid, but is it enough to say im mafia? If you are just lynching me because I'm a bad town player, then you're just hurting the town, and youre just wasting time while the mafia is hiding in the background, smiling at how they don't have to do any work, and just let the town fight with each other. This is the Misder post that I find the oddest. The two points that Misder is "inconsistent" and "didn't back up ... claims" are just simplifications of "seemed to be hostile to everyone" and "offered no evidence in his attacks," two statements which are actually quite strong for a mafia vote in my opinion. Then, Misder goes on the guilt trip, saying "if you lynch me and I'm a townie, you're just going to hurt the town." Honestly, I'm second-guessing a vote for him due to that statement, but at the same time I find it pretty suspicious in tone. I thought the contradiction against BC was pretty solid, but Misder's posts have raised a red flag in my head. I'm going to vote for him. Also, I'm not sold on double lynching yet. If anyone (Pandain especially since he's lobbying for it the most) wants to give me a quick argument for double lynching (not who we should double lynch), I'd be more than glad to hear it. | ||
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On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote: Reasons for double lynch 1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save. 2.In case BM is mafia 3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though) 4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp Good enough for me. | ||
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On October 09 2010 09:49 Crisis_ wrote: Okay, I'll consider it. Can you clarify this for me, though? Will the double lynch occur tonight or tomorrow if it passes? On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote: Reasons for double lynch 1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save. 2.In case BM is mafia 3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though) 4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp On September 08 2010 13:30 BrownBear wrote: Double Lynches They exist, you can use them starting Day 2. When you want to use one, just vote for using it the next day, in addition to voting for a person. If a majority wants Double Lynch, it will happen. | ||
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 what happened to double lynching? | ||
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On October 10 2010 08:40 Crisis_ wrote: I'd like to point out that ghrur and CynanMachae have both voted against me on Day 2. Just worth noting. But if you guys don't consider that as content, refer to my post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=45#887 Actually, I checked the timings, and ghrur voted for you 1 hour before you made that post, and CynanMachae 2 hours after. On top of that, ghrur posted a fairly logical analysis against you on page 44. I'd like to see Cynan's reasoning for voting for you though. | ||
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It's true I had several other suspects at the time, including HFT/BC who seemed quite scummy. I decided not to vote Crisis_ not because he stopped being suspicious, but more because his post flaws seemed more due to newness than actual scumminess. I started questioning BM's analysis of HFT/BC more after BM put out that really questionable and spammy plan. I realized that while the HFT/BC analysis was based on one contradiction and some intuition, my own view of Misder's posts included several contradictions and some intuition. So I voted Misder, because my suspicion for him surpassed my suspicion for HFT/BC. The others aren't off my radar, though, and I'm going to go look over some of the analyses for SiNiquity now as well. | ||
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Pandain knew he was going to die? I want to say "perhaps he got something right in his final suspect list?" but I'm really afraid the mafia have thought this out on an extra level, in a reverse-psychology way | ||
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On October 10 2010 11:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote: this sort of thinking is wifom. there are infinite layers of potential reverse psychology and analysing it is a waste of time yeah, I guess it is a waste what does wifom mean? | ||
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On October 10 2010 12:40 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Crucial decisions? What decision did I make here exactly other than the decision to put pressure. Mind you that's exactly what we as a town need to be doing. Pressuring people. In the name of DrH, I will put some pressure on BloodyC0bbler, who was my #1 suspect before Misder tripped my radar (falsely, and for that I'm sorry D: ) LONG POST INC I'll begin with Bill Murray's analysis of happy.fairytail, who used to occupy the slot that BloodyC0bbler now does. I disagree with his accusation of BC as "rolefishing," but I have to say he does make some good points against HFT. On October 07 2010 13:35 Bill Murray wrote: Posts 234/235 by Happy.Fairytale were posts to fake being useful to the town Post 255 is him fishing for Detectives through number "analysis" Post 257 by Happy.Fairytale: Please read this These two things are nearly an open contradiction. "I haven't read 12 pages" followed immediately by 35 minutes and then "I had all this analysis done on this awesome spreadsheet". I'll now proceed to my own thoughts on BloodyC0bbler, and I'll naturally begin with his refutation of BC's analysis. On October 07 2010 14:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Hell even your contradiction is laughable. He had how much actual time to do what he said he had done minus 12 hours. Creating a spreadsheet/worddoc with information is becoming common place, and insanely useful. You start it typically day 1, and add/alter information as the game progress' This is a desperate attempt to save yourself, and your clinging at straws. I find that this defense is made of paper. BC manufactures his own evidence, claiming that "creating a spreadsheet is commonplace and insanely useful" right when it benefits him to say so. If it's so useful and commonplace, why did he not give that advice to the new players? (Remember, one of BC's first posts in the thread was advice to newbies) Also, I agree that reading 12 pages of posts is doable in 35 minutes (1 page/3 min), but I personally can't spot solid red flags in peoples' posts while reading at that speed, and HFT claimed to have done "analysis" and "profiles," which are quite in depth. Now we transition into the PM debacle. I won't go into BM's evidence using BC's town/townie response, because that was shot down by the hosts. I'll try to focus on BC's content posts, because he does have a large number of one-liners ridiculing BM. In fact, out of those accused by BM, I think BC reacted the most aggressively. On October 07 2010 15:08 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I could also use the word citizen, town, townies. IT doesnt matter. It all means the same thing. You know this as well as I do. With the way your behaving I seriously think your a green aiming to sabotage the game since you hate your role, a mafia doing what you do every game, or a VI. Regardless, anyone with a brain will realize your just aiming to convince the newer players who don't know better to off people who can stop you from ruining a game. Subtly talking as if he's a guardian of the people, which is a tone I personally find scummy; in some of these posts, he almost seems to be forcing himself to talk like a townie. On October 07 2010 15:16 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I am arguing that you are spamming a thread and not providing actual detail. I am also proving you wrong on multiple levels, thats because I am town and would like to win the game, thanks. I didn't see BC prove BM wrong on "multiple levels," or with legitimate evidence for that matter. In fact, BC posts several one liners that add no content himself. He also claims again that he is town, and I'm not sure why. On October 07 2010 15:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: eh? there is a major difference between spamming a post to be ignored, and making 7 posts in a row that are one liners that offer no real substance -_- Many of your posts in this thread were simply one-line back and forth with BM. On October 08 2010 12:24 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I am however intrigued how you come out of complete inactivity, defend not only bm, but xelin as well. Are the mafia really playing so badly as to so obviously link together, or are the three of you combined just bad? This is in response to SiNiquity. It is odd that SiN defends BM and XeliN, but BC still says it's "obvious" that the three are mafia AND linked together. He's already declared his opposition to BM, and his analysis of Xelin arrives later. I will note that while I combed BC's posts, I saw many more that added no content, giving some impression of posting but not really. Now for BC's lengthy analysis of XeliN, which I will counter-analyze. Spoilered because it is LONG + Show Spoiler + On October 08 2010 12:54 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Yay analysis time. I am leaving the obvious moron BM out of this as well, we all have determined he is retarded, so lets move on. First off I will be analyzing Xelin. I am opting to analyze him primarily because he stood out for his massive screw up by following BM. Now your going to ask, “but why xelin?” I will tell you why. I have been on a mafia team with xelin before. As such I know his play well enough at this point to know he’s not playing town. His general mafia style is sit back and wait, posting the bare minimum to stay off peoples radar’s and only appearing under a few situations. -Defend himself -Making random useless post to appear active -Jump on board ideas of his teammates, or people who are playing badly yet most people believe are town. Lets give you a brief summary of Xelin’s history this game. -Signed up -Didn’t post, nor vote day 1 -Came back with the excuse He openly admits he only posted due to mod warnings. Shows a complete disregard to the game and genuine lack of caring. He then reappears to defend himself against posts that insinuated he wasn’t modkilled because he had a role (this could be true or not). However the only real action to this lack of modkilling was he should be RC’d to verify his role. He then defended himself from being RC’d? He then drops back into inactive land until reappearing to support BM instantly and push the lynch of two of BM’s targets. Now, Xelin has worked with both myself and Opz in previous games, he knows that between the three of us every blue role in a game was coordinated into one unit and the mafia was quickly killed. Factor in his normal mafia playstyle this fits in perfectly. He keeps up his defense of BM’s strategy until he, much like bm, had the logic shot down by the town. Now backed into a corner he responds with This post saying “I wont defend myself unless you ask me directly now” is a clever way of dodging all the previous comments and concerns. As rather than answering why he supported bm, or even making analysis on targets, he tries to pull himself out of the hotseat without actually having to do work. People then began to focus on inactive players at the time like misder, leaving xelin forgotten. He also asserts he was intending to actually contribute then decides he would rather not and sit back and pick what he responds to. His play this game has been spotty, very anti town and untop of it all extremely inactive. Based on this I would put him as a strong possibility to be Mafia, or since he refuses to defend himself directly from being lynched a VI although that to me seems more like a mafia ploy than reality. At this point he is a strong candidate for a mafia lynch, or if nothing else, it removes a non contributing inactive member out of the game. In both cases town comes away ahead. If he is VI, then I am as bad as BM. For now xelin is my #1 suspect, but I will start re-reading now to see if any others stand out glaringly. First off, you claim your experience by listing Xelin's characteristics while playing as a red, which include posting very selectively and attempting to hide from the public eye. However, you then claim that he "disregards the game" and has a "genuine lack of caring." This actually contradicts the modus operandi of a player who watches and waits for opportunities to post, and I want to hear what BC has to say. Saying you've put a behavior to a pattern is pretty questionable when you show that you don't have a real understanding of that pattern. ON the other hand, the second part of his analysis does strike a valid point, and I pretty much agree with it. TO SUM: BloodyC0bbler's and HFT's posts have been riddled with contradictions and characteristically unhelpful (HFT mostly does useless analysis, while a good portion of BC's posts are one-line attacks on BM and others, which I have omitted). I would like to see, in response, a solid defense with logic. If BC can back up his accusations of BM, SiN, and Xelin with more logical evidence (actually, mostly BM and SiN), I will consider him much less suspect. | ||
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On October 10 2010 14:37 ~OpZ~ wrote: Well someone out there knows I'm a town member, sheesh. I'm seriously waiting on BC. I want to see some multiparty analysis from him. Til then I'm going to vote for him. His argument with Bill was pretty...Well I was in it too....So I can't say much. But Bill did point out a good point with that about Happy. I was just waiting for more from BC...and I haven't gotten much more. When I posted my analysis of BC, I was semi-suspecting him, but the fact that he's been silent for a while is making me want to see his response even more. I, like Divinek, also think you've been non-scummy this game. | ||
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On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote: Is Opz lying? Well if you want to be sure we can lynch him. He isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once. He has been playing the fence throughout the whole game. Usually he pushes players against a wall more frequently, and he wasn't doing this in an aggressive way this time. Are you saying that in order to see if OpZ is a townie, we should lynch him? We could full well be doing the mafia's work for them, then. It's like the medieval witch trial joke. The way to tell if someone was a witch in medieval times - throw them in the ocean with weights attached. Live - is a witch, kill him/her. Die - oshi, was a human. I'm fairly convinced that OpZ is a townie so far, so the following paragraph assumes that: What do you mean "he isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once?" You might be forgetting that there's another role that takes hits, namely the Blue Bulletproof, who can't be nightkilled at all (except through poison or vigi). This whole thing really rests on what OpZ meant by "taking a hit" - did he get saved by a medic, did he use a veteran life, or did he survive with bulletproof? Even in the first two scenarios, if OpZ is a townie, he's still as useful as any other townie o_O at least in terms of numbers. I'm not sure what you're trying to argue. Also, OpZ - please clarify: Did you survive due to your role or due to a doc? | ||
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On October 10 2010 22:15 kingjames01 wrote: Conclusion - Casts vote on Day 1 without justification - Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon" - Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives - Implies he does not know the smurf but in the following post says he remembers who the smurf is - Accuses NukeTheBunnys of being mafia since he opposes Bill Murray - When NukeTheBunnys replies, SouthRawrea dismisses all arguments by saying it's not in an essay form. Calls it "good advice". - After Misder is lynched and revealed to be Town, SouthRawrea quickly aligns himself and makes an empty threat - SouthRawrea publicly aligns himself to Pandain citing that he was the only one with a good "raisin bran muffin" - In the same post SouthRawrea accuses drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica, and/or XeliN, BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory - Suggests that he might be a target that night - 2 hours and 15 minutes later Pandain is killed - No post since Together in one place, these posts paint SouthRawrea into a very small corner. I propose that the town takes action. I want SouthRawrea to explain himself. I think the case against SouthRawrea of opposing a LOT of people but providing very little content is pretty strong. I'm not going to say he's my #1 suspect or whatever, but because we have so much information and so many analyses I hope to see defenses from everyone before I decide on my second vote (and maybe change my first vote too). SouthRawrea, please speak up; I know it's Thanksgiving in Canada, but I think you should at least be able to manage some defense or a quick explanation of your suspicions (others from Canada sure did). | ||
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On October 12 2010 02:49 ~OpZ~ wrote: I'm not clarifying because it would be retarded. Tell mafia my role so they can guess if they can hit me again? Let them try, and let them find out. Duh? Sry new guy you needed to know that. Yes I did, thanks Need to hear more on these new votes. I literally last checked an hour ago, and I didn't notice we had so much voting thread activity until BC pointed it out. | ||
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