Team Melee Mini Mafia II

On August 30 2010 01:07 BrownBear wrote:
I'm going to have to /out as well, due to being modkilled in PYP2, so I can use this towards my ban.

On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
Ah just noticed that the game has started. I know its the weekend and people might be busy (I sure am), but I can't help but notice that something is already off in this game. A couple people are acting out of the ordinary. I'll keep a close eye on these players. However, I won't/can't afford to give them much time to straighten out their act though, so shape it up quickly so I can have time to organize my thoughts/put forward a lynch candidate.

We're not lynching based on inactivity this game folks. Its Team Melee Mafia, so inactivity lynch makes little sense. 8 "players" should make this game short and quick. There's no time to waste. I won't talk about activity right now given the game just started, but I will assume people are going to be active. Glancing at the player roster we have a game where every team should have someone who can be expected to carry some weight.

I didn't read the last TMMM game entirely, but I noticed the last game had a fairly large discussion on two player vs. three player teams in the context of inactivity and the pros/cons of having a two/three player team. This discussion is pointless, wastes our precious time, and derails the town from its focus of finding and eliminating the mafia. Mafia like such a discussion because they can be active while keeping the town distracted from finding the mafia. Learning to recognize and avoid pointless arguments will get us a long way.

With that said, time for some useful discussion. Unlike the TL Mafia game's I've played, this game doesn't have a Godfather. Therefore, DTs are that much more viable, especially in terms of checking QUIET scummy teams. Medics should be protecting VOCAL pro-town teams. This way, mafia is incentivized to take pot shots at the middle of the pool, as shooting the scummy players is obviously bad and helps narrow down the pool, and shooting active players risks running into medic protection. Mafia is also incentivized to be active because a) they can draw medic protection, b) they must avoid being targetted by DT checks. Mafia can't hide at the bottom because there is no GF or miller card to save them. There are also way to few players to be able to effectively hide from DT checks. The beauty is that even if DTs/medics don't exist, mafia must still play as if they do exist. So this strategy does not rely on the existence of blue roles.

My general theory is that we need a) to let the DT check whoever he thinks is most scummy, and b) vote/make a list of the 2 top active/helpful players for the medic to protect. The reason why the DT should decide on his own who to check is merely so that mafia doesn't manipulate the target. The reason why we vote for the teams to be put on the medic list is because it is that much harder to vote for someone useless while claiming they're useful. Its a lot easier to manipulate the DT check by voting since its easier to point out flaws than real genuine activity. Of course even townies will make mistakes. So we just bypass the DT check voting.

Spam. I've had to stop reading all of the last 5 or so games after getting a day or so into it because the thread just kept expanding at a phenomenal rate. Let's try to keep the thread clean and organized. I want to make sure important information is not shoved into a corner and ignored. In order to help the town organize, I suggest that at the end of every post, everyone should write a short sentence stating the point of the post. Its easy to wander aimlessly while writing a post. Writing what the main point at the end of every post should help you stay focused, help us focus on what you're trying to convey, and restrict the mafia's ability to derail the thread.

I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.

***

Main points:

1) Focus on behavior analysis!
2) Stay out of useless conversations. Be pro-town and kill them rather than fan them into flame.
3) Force mafia to play proactively by threat of efficient use of blue roles.
4) Vote on medic list to protect active townies.
5) Make it a point to work toward a specific goal when posting.

On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:

That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them.

On September 21 2010 04:54 BrownBear wrote:
Dammit Ace, you're faster than me

On September 21 2010 05:33 Bill Murray wrote:
damn ace i made a huge post that you just summarized in like 4 lines lol

On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.

The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.

No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1.

On September 22 2010 09:24 Infundibulum wrote:
ace who are you addressing?

On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:


No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading.

No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then.

In a typical game a single medic save NOT gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches.

Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time:

Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why?

On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:


Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.)

Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds.

And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help.

On September 22 2010 10:37 LSB wrote:


Umm...
That doesn't really make sense.

Think of it this way. Imagine that there is 8 hats, one for each group
The mafia places a kill one of the hats.

The Medic has to guess where the kill is.
The Medic has a 1/8th chance of guessing the kill.


Now, if the medic isn't picking himself.
There is a 5/6 chance the mafia wouldn't hit the medic
There is a 1/7th chance that the medic would pick the right person.

So 5/42

On September 23 2010 10:49 Bill Murray wrote:
x_x
expected

On October 05 2010 18:27 Incognito wrote:


Oh completely forgot about that, lol.



That's all under the assumption that mafia's goal is to not immediately lose. If mafia is certain my best move is to protect myself but they're unsure of whether or not they'd get lynched the next day, they could have sufficient reason to just hit the other target for the instant win. Your probabilistic methods assume I'm going to flip a coin the next day to pick a lynch target.

All the endgame drama aside, I'm really disappointed by everyone's play including myself. The middle game was just a bunch of waffling and bad logic by me. Although nobody was really doing anything (except maybe Pandain/BB). Not sure if the inactivity was because of my aggressiveness or just general apathy. In any case, I'm not going to be playing again anytime soon. The team melee format is nice though so I'd like to see that continue, maybe on a larger scale next time Seems like TL mafia is running low on steam though...