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On September 21 2010 10:27 SouthRawrea wrote: I haven't said that plans are bad, just that I'm pretty sure that you really can't come up with a plan in this setup. What do you think about Bum's Medic idea?
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(Quick post to make sure I don't get modkilled.)
Vote: No Lynch
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I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is. I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves. The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic? There are two solutions: 1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic 2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit.
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On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote: Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting
1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan
This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection.
The erroneous logic is in the "oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of.
Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem.
If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used.
Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should.
So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm>
LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory.
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On September 22 2010 08:07 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 07:59 LSB wrote: I'm sorry if you guys thought I had this perfectly worked out. But it was more of on how people are acting, and I was getting this wierd vibe once I was looking into the posts.
The reason why I didn't want to make a giant post that early was that I wanted to hear from Bum. But a lot of people wanted to hear what I said, so I just posted what I had.
As you can see with my post, I then changed my thoughts. I was thinking that Bum was intentionally lurking, but with his 2nd post, I'm not so sure that he is. I was really concerned that the entire team was acting strangely. I’m still watching them of course, but Bum kindof disproves that idea.
I really like Bum's plan and support it. Medic should protect themselves. The main problem is what if we accidentally accuse the medic? There are two solutions: 1) Medic claims beforehand. This way we automatically know who is medic 2) Medic claims after he is accused. The problem is what if mafia claims too? There is no way we would know if that the medic is mafia or not.
Solution: Medic should claim Day2, because that’s when we are going to start the lynching. By doing a no lynch day 1, the medic has a chance of taking a hit. *feels selfish* It was my idea! Also, medic shouldn't claim. Why would we want to know who is medic? If he's going to be lynched, he can say so. Point 2 stands for both cases as well. Pandians idea then!
Lets say we decides day2 we're trying to lynch InFun*
InFun then claims that he is medic. What should we do? We now know that he is either medic or mafia, but should we follow through with the lynch, or not?
Okay, let's break down the statistics (I'm assuming worst case scenario, all townie lynches)
Claim Medic day 2: 1 nights of hidden protection We know someone that is town. Won't get lynched day 2. Forces the mafia to act if they want to claim medic.
Claim Medic while being lynched: 1-2 nights of hidden protection We don't have anyone confirmed The moment a mafia gets accused, they will claim medic.
The thing is, all a hidden medic is going to get is one more night of secrecy (during the worst case scenario). If we tell the medic to claim at the start of day 2. Mafia would be taking a big risk if they claimed. There is a 50% chance that the other medic will counterclaim, and then we find a mafia. Basically we get a confirmed townie A confirmed townie + less confusion during lynch time in case we hit a mafia > 1 more hidden night.
+ Show Spoiler +*He killed me in Mafia XXX so I'm going to use him in all my examples whenever someone dies/is scum
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On September 22 2010 05:32 meeple wrote: Hold on... so we only get 2 lynches if we have a no lynch and no save scenario... balls to the walls... wait...
Assuming we use our no lynch now and assuming that we have no medic saves... Today:_______________6 v 2
Tommorow____________5 v 2
Day 3:_______3 v 2______or_______4 v 1
Day 4:__town lose or 2 v 1____2 v 1 or town win
Day 5: town win or town lose in both cases
What am I missing... this gives a 50% chance of town win, based on total randomness and no saves. Agreed! That's why no lynch!
(I swear I said this somewhere earlier)
On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote: If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted.
Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason.
Anyways, I can see what you said that this is a possible scum maneuvers. But just remember, a lot of the scum maneuvers and town maneuvers are the same. (Ie both try not to get killed).
However, they do have solid reasons for disagreeing. It's based on No lynching. I can understand them, if Pyrr votes for something, and I disagree with him, I'm not just going to go, "Whatever, I'll just follow Pyrr", I'm going to vote differently
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On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote: No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this? 1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.
But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.
Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia. Ya I understand that the mafia would avoid him.
But what if we are lynching someone, and then he suddenly claims that he's a medic? That's a big problem
Anyways, when you think about it, the medic doesn't have that much nights with his ability (in the worst case senario).
Of course, I could just be a pessimist with all my worst case senario thinking.
Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"
I killed you because your plan was a mafia plan
+ Show Spoiler +On September 08 2010 07:40 LSB wrote:Reason 4) Pro mafia plans Show nested quote +On September 06 2010 02:50 Pandain wrote: So here's what I say we do: We make no accusations, whatsover. We let the NSVD work his way through checking everybody and then go with what he says. However, I'm thinking the NSVD should only claim like maybe after finding 2 scum(maybe even after checking everyone? n.n).
Than we lynch. The only problem I can see is that if there is a mafia role involving killing someone. I already PMed Caller and mafia themselves do not have the ability to kill someone. But roles are hidden so they might very well have a role that can kill people at night.
Either way, waiting at least until this day ends will both help stop an unnecessary death and let us wait until we see if the mafia have any really dangerous roles. This is an extremely mafia idea, Pandain wants us just to sit around waiting. This is always really bad relying soley on one person who may or may not be alive/in-existance. Pandain then changes his plan to "lets kill all inactives". Good idea, but most of the time, (ie 99% of the time) inactive are greens that don't feel the motivation to post because their role isn't 'cool'. It's good for the mafia as all the mafia has to do is stay active, and boom, a whole bunch of day kills go off ##Accusation: Pandian
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On September 22 2010 09:18 Ace wrote: claim medic on Day 2? are you serious? Well, we are doing a no lynch Day 1, so there is no reason to claim Day 1
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On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote: Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do? Uh, what does your number mean? I got this
Chance of Medic Save Medic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number) Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5%
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Okay.
If medic self protects, Mafia has a 1/6 chance of hitting the medic
If Medic randomly selects, the Medic has a 1/8 chance of selecting the mafia target.
If Medic randomly selects, but knows who the mafia is because he is super good at analysis. The Medic has a 1/6 chance of selecting the mafia target.
Of course. If you weight the numbers, if Medic protects someone else, and saves them, that's two people confirmed. So a weighted percent of 25%, better I guess, but it seems like a double or nothing
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On September 22 2010 10:16 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 10:13 LSB wrote:On September 22 2010 10:07 Ace wrote:On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote: Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help. Classic Monty Hall problem: If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%. If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie) So what do you want to do? Uh, what does your number mean? I got this Chance of Medic SaveMedic Self protects. 1/6= 17% (we got the same number) Medic randomly selects. 1/8=12.5% plus add the fact that the 2 mafia aren't going to be hit, which raises the 12.5% to (I think) 3/8. The medic doesn't know who the mafia isn't going to hit. The 1/8th accounts for if the Medic accidentally protects the mafia
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Uh...
Chances that medic will protect town(if he doesn't select himself) 5/8. 5/8 times 1/6(the chance mafia will hit a specific person). =1/8 5/8*1/6 =/= 1/8 5/8*1/6 = 5/48
Chance that the medic will protect town if he does random himself 6/8*1/6=1/8
Close enough! + Show Spoiler +
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On September 22 2010 10:29 Ace wrote: @LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit.
Umm... That doesn't really make sense.
Think of it this way. Imagine that there is 8 hats, one for each group The mafia places a kill one of the hats.
The Medic has to guess where the kill is. The Medic has a 1/8th chance of guessing the kill.
Now, if the medic isn't picking himself. There is a 5/6 chance the mafia wouldn't hit the medic There is a 1/7th chance that the medic would pick the right person.
So 5/42
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Um, no
What I do is equivelent, as you first figure out the chance medic will protect someone who gets hit, and then add in the fact that 2/8 won't get hit.
The medic will have a 5/42 chance of the medic protecting someone who will get hit.
What do you mean by add in that 2/8 won't be hit? That's pointless. It's not like the mafia is going to hit themselves
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Okay, lets just stop arguing combinatorics.
Medic Protecting self: Pro: higher chance of success
Medic Protecting other Pro: could confirm two people.
Medic, pick what you want. Take a larger or smaller risk?
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Response to Incogs post
Plans + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 14:47 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Sorry, but "my plan" isn't easily exploitable as mafia. Yeah, the people not on the DT/Medic list will be considered "safe" from mafia POV, but I'd rather lose someone useless than someone useful. You're also missing the point. You're crying because you want me to address my "plan". Let me quote you again, Remember saying that? Thought so. Why is it that all of a sudden you want to refocus on my plan? Not going to fall for that one, buddy. You are falsly saying that I don't understand your plan, but in reality, you don't understand my problem with your plan. My problem with your plan is that the mafia can hide easily in it. What’s your response? 1) Start accusing me for not helping your plan 2) Start accusing me for not seeing why your plan is so “Pro town” 3) Make up a fake argument, say it's mine, and then claim that 'my' argument sucks 4) When I address 2+3, you start accusing me for talking about plans This is just getting silly and out of hand
My Mentality: + Show Spoiler + Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should.
So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> You are setting up a straw man here. Your "positions" are not meaningful. I am not accusing you for your lack of planning per se, but your lack of pro-town mindset. Your posts show apathy. Your posts say "hi I'm contributing" even though its clear you're not. You don't want to say anything about the Ace/BM lynch because you think they're town? Why didn't you say that? All you said was "Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight". Sorry, but I don't read "I think they're town" into that statement. You don't want to say anything about Foolishness/Rasta? Why? Instead of saying "these lynches are stupid", a townsperson would be trying to create discussion. In your case, you are just trying to kill it. So I should have tried to get BM lynched? Sorry, I don't push dumb things. Wrong again. I don't expect you to do either of those necessarily. I expect you to be pro-town and generate content, stimulate discussion, take a stand, and try to get the ball rolling. Trying to make plans fits into those categories. Sitting around doing nothing does not. Its not that "oh noes LSB isn't plan making thus he is mafia!", its that "LSB normally shows interest in moving the town forward and generating discussion, this game he's not, and thus he is mafia!". See the difference? Take interest in moving the town forward. You've done none of that this game unless under pressure. A lot of the day 1 accusations are baseless. We don't stop people from discussing them because we need stuff to talk about. Its fine if you try to cut off that discussion point, but only if you provide something else better. Frankly you are saying that I should bandwagon and accuse random people. I only accuse someone when I am absolutely sure. I was formulating an accusation, but people wanted it too early. As you can see, I ended up junking my accusations due to Bum's posts Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. No, you posted that you were certain Team 2 was mafia after I accused you. You may have honestly been waiting to see what Bum would do, but I can't prove that. Context tells me that its more plausible you just pulled that out of a hat to divert attention from yourself. I don't think any straight thinking townie is going to take your accusation at face value at this point. If you really want to look pro-town, start doing some straight up analysis. It has to be good analysis too. It has to be so good, that I'd rather lynch your target over you. Yeah, and once I start doing straight up analysis, your going to accuse me of taking your bait and being scum. Your going to call this your 'trap'. Good thing I put in this paragraph. Sure I’ll post analysis once I figure out something. But it’s not going to be because I’m trying to appease you. It’s because I’m going to try to take down the mafia.
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Misconseptions
On September 23 2010 21:01 SouthRawrea wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: @ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.
I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.
vote team 6 Nah it has nothing to do with being passive. He comes out with a strong accusation against my team and then fails to followup or explain himself properly. I'm having quite a dilemna right now because I know very well that it's obviously considered anti-town behaviour to not post much at all and so I'm looking to the inactive teams. The problem I have is that I can't shake the feeling that the mafia may be an active team as well. I've got to go for now but I'm going to look over Team 6 when I get back from school. Just saying, that was not a strong accusation at all. I then retract myself mid post. If it was an accusation, I would have ended my post with a vote.
On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:Also the people that accused BM/Ace LSB + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote: Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote +This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote +The erroneous logic is in the "oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote +If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia.
I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote +To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote + LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work.
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them.
Don’t misquote me please
Ace/BM is scum:You said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town
Miscellaneous
On September 23 2010 14:02 BrownBear wrote: Well, mildly predictable. I was half-expecting team incog, to be honest, but this is also a solid hit by mafia.
(im assuming they were vanilla town)
So where to today? Yeah, ACE/BM was vanilla town (their names were in green)
2nd post coming soon
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I am against the Meeple lynch
On September 23 2010 16:24 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote: odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them
Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Wow. This coming from you is hillarious. As if you're trying to downplay the fact that Ace was suspicious of you. Its not an "odd" choice for you to kill the team that agreed with the scumminess of YOUR team and Team 1. I'm 100% positive you didn't miss the part where Ace accused you. Notice how meeple says "Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town", while doing nothing to analyze them. Analyzing a dead person's post is easy. Meeple, however, doesn't want to do this because he has no interest in exposing the fact that Ace agreed with my reads. Meeple is not walking the talk. This should raise red flags for everyone. I don’t believe you gave him that much time. Meeple did do analysis of Ace, after your post. He possibly could be busy and needed to do something else.
So I dug through the posts where Ace mentioned Yellowink and Meeple And I found a post + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote: At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? I don’t see an accusation of scummyness from Ace, all I see is say ridiculing YellowInk for being a “bad player” Ace said he was unsure on whether or not Incog was right. Ace didn’t agree with Incog yet.
Killing Ace/BM is convenient if Team 1 and Team 7 are mafia. Mafia killing Ace/BM is equal to killing a less vocal and aggressive version of me/Infundibulum. It eliminates the only Team who agreed with me that Team 1 and 7 are scum right now. Which means I lose a supporter and need to work even harder to try to accomplish my goals. I think everyone would agree that I would be more likely to receive a medic prot than Ace. I'm guessing mafia took this into consideration and decided it was easier and safer to effectively cripple my steamrolling machine by sniping the quieter supporter. Now I have to find yet another vote to help me get them lynched. Real convenient, huh?
Team 7 is mafia. Analysis coming up in a few.
Again, you assume that Ace agreed with you. What Ace said is that either 1) Incog is good at finding mafia. Or 2) Incog is mafia and good at killing townies, by painting them as scum from a 'slipup'
On September 23 2010 18:52 Incognito wrote:A few posts back, I noted Pyrr's defense of YellowInk: Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia. [Vote]Team 7Main Point: 1) Pyrr slipped up. He defended someone out of the blue when there was no direct attack involved. He defended someone who voted for him. 2) Team 1 is mafia3) Team 7 is mafia Um that’s not a defense. That’s a possible explanation. Pyrr explained it quite well
+ Show Spoiler +On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote: totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow
baa baaa
##vote team 7
Bandwagoning?
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Intresting... I agree its strange how Team 7 is accusing team 6. It's probably their trying to draw the heat off of themselves.
Anyways I haven't played with Meeple before, so I can't say much, but I went through this game http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=128918 Meeple was townie, and he wasn't a big contributor and didn't make much (if any) stands
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There's a difference between arguing, and flat out lying
On September 25 2010 05:06 Pandain wrote:Other People: I am with those who think LSB and Pyrr are mafia, and I find him a much better, and safer choice to vote for. In addition, I'd like to point something out from LSB: Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 10:14 LSB wrote: Overview: The entire Divinek/Southrawrea/Bumatalarge team was incredibly unhelpful. This isn’t like Zeks, who just lurks all the time. Divinek, Southrawrea, and Bumatalarge usually at least make the effort to help. It’s strange why none of them are doing that right now.
Addon: Bumatalarge’s second post is actually pretty helpful.
Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action". This could just be South and Divinek. If Bum didn't make his second post, I would have immediatly voted for him.
NOTE THE BOLDED SECTION. Now, what he's saying here is that he would have voted for Bum except for the post Bum wrote after a post LSB made: Bum posted the 2nd post before I released my Analysis o.o Thats why in my Analysis, I explicitly state that I am unsure if their team is mafia anymore.
Conclusion: Not as sure as before, before I was going off of the "This can't be a coincidence. Once is a accidence, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action". That's why I did not vote for them HOW MANY TIMES Do I have to say that I won't vote for people that I am not completely sure that they are mafia?
Show nested quote +On September 21 2010 04:16 LSB wrote: Okay, I believe it is essential to use the No Lynch.
The No Lynch will give the Mafia another kill. But at the same time, it gives us another DT check, it gives us another Medic protection. (Assuming they exist).
And it won’t actually shorten lylo date. With or without No lynch, we have 2 mislynchs till we lose. It doesn’t change
I’m not saying we have to use it now. I’m just saying, if we don’t use it today, we should use it tomorrow. That way we can take advantage of the No-Lynch benefits.
So, he was going to vote for Team 2 even after this, if not for a post? Wtf is this? You're fadoodling my mind here. I said that it is in our advantage to use a no-lynch as either way (worst case scenario), we have only two lynches
You are wrong on both counts
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