Will try my best to spread love, sunshine and puppy dogs. And post less.
Pick Your Power Mafia 2!
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Will try my best to spread love, sunshine and puppy dogs. And post less. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 21 2010 07:33 chaoser wrote: there's a difference between saying there's probably 4 (assumption) and mafia has 4 (definite). Either way, we need a day 1 lynch, he could be it. Based on that? Nah. He's a good player, no need to kill him before the game even started. Remember, sunshine & puppy dogs! | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 21 2010 07:53 Bill Murray wrote: @Radfield, quit being unhelpful claim your number, and pick it yourself. If you do not claim your number previously to picking it, I'm going to be pushing for your lynch. Everyone claim their numbers. chaoser:4 Pandain:6 Bill:7 hahaha - yeah seriously Radfield, try to help a little bit man, wtf is this?!? On the public announcement of numbers: I am more comfortable with a random-ish order that comes from everyone doing their own picking. I fear that if everyone claims their number right now we'll be stuck in number picking wifom land forever. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On May 11 2010 12:52 Ace wrote: There are a ton of fun roles I would use but I just don't trust people ^_^. No one picked Mason(big mistake), SK got Floridian (perfect pick for SK) and no one saw that coming, no bulletproof(luckily Scum didn't get this), and Pardoner dropped all the way to the end (wtf?!). Zona made a good point, you have roles you want to deny to the Mafia but there are roles you absolutely need. Compulsive Vigilante isn't even that dangerous when compared to Bulletproof Scum avoiding SK hits, Scum Pardoners that can argue, and Scum that takes Tracker and starts framing everyone. I also urge you not to tell the mafia the numbers you are picking: it does not help the town in the least bit; if we overlap the draft order changes but we can stick to the same plan. I am not sure I see how it 100% helps the mafia or sk, but it might, so just don't do it. Pick randomly and privately, then we decide where we go from there. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 21 2010 20:46 Radfield wrote: I just realized why this is a very, very bad plan if everyone doesn't go along with it. By everyone publicly stating their numbers, it makes it extremely easy for mafia to somwhat rig the draft to their liking. After looking at the plan I proposed, mafia realize that it would be very beneficial for them to hold the number 3 draft spot(prince of darkness). Lets also say that LSB (the 5th pick) is mafia. So the mafia would have two other players double up numbers with rastaban and chaoser, and voila, mafia have pick number 3. Of course, if everyone declares their numbers, we can easily track who didn't land in the proper spots, who doubled up, and who benefited from the new draft order. We could pinpoint mafia fairly easy. BUT, if some people don't tell us their numbers, or RNG, or don't check the thread again, then it becomes much more difficult to pinpoint the mafia, and lets them manipulate the draft as they see fit. This gives us two options: we put pressure on the last 8 players to reveal their numbers, or we scrap the plan and all resend our numbers. At this point it makes sense to simply carry on with our number picking. I hope this makes sense to the folks who haven't sent in numbers yet. I am fine with your plan to prioritize some roles. However, you are not confirmed town right now. You should not make up the list with exactly who gets what role: as you yourself said, it makes no difference if a particular townie picks first or last. Please drop the public number claiming. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 22 2010 00:33 Pandain wrote: Heck no, we need to do this to ensure 1. We get good roles 2. we get comp vigi. The only good thing about your plan is really that it makes it so mafia is unsure as to who will pick what. doesn't really matter, as people are claiming roles. Again, i don't see how you being mafia will even hurt it, as your plan is solid and only hurts the mafia. Again, we have bullet bill. If someone picks a non designated role, their mafia. You have no control over who picks what, only what they pick. And as long as the town agrees, we have no worries over that. Also, fun suscipision time.(just for bragging rights in case i'm right.) + Show Spoiler + Out of these 3, one is innocent, 50% chance one is mafia, and 1 is mafia. Divinek Citizen Darth Just speculation fella's. 1. It doesn't. 2. I still think comp vigi needs to by day 1 lynch. If it's me I'll gladly offer myself for that. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 22 2010 02:31 DarthThienAn wrote: That makes a lot more sense then. I was assuming that you were saying use ONLY this number plan and then do whatever for picks... The only other thing on my mind now is that, though this plan lets us find scum that double up, it also allows scum to know what everyone is picking. But hmm... I guess if they sacrifice a mafia player by doubling up in order to get a role, that's actually worth it. Perhaps I am dense, but here are some concerns: 1. We have no reason to think the mafia get lower numbers using this method. I have no idea of anyone's alignment on that list. 2. A mafia with a "pro-town" role can screw us up forever. A dt can claim anything about their sanity. A tracker can frame anyone. These roles are by no means "useless to the mafia", on the contrary. 3. I HATE the thought that the mafia will have a very easy time sniping blues, and may even reserve desired roles for themselves through an assured draft order & influencing the dicussion of who picks what. 4. Why are we not even discussing lynching the comp vig? It lowers the numer of dead people each night, which as far as I can tell helps the town have more time to figure things out. So no, I will not follow Bill Murray and Pandain's request to announce anything at this time. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 22 2010 09:16 Radfield wrote: I agree with Citizen and Siniquity here. There is simply no benefit to having public numbers. Lets stick with hidden numbers. Sinquity, we could have another pick slightly lower down (#2-5) also take Comp Vig. This would double check that the first player actually did take the CV role. We could also add in a percentage for taking CV in the 4-6 slots instead. Citizen, the reason I would be against lynching the CV on day 1, is that the role doesn't hurt us until late game. As long as the CV follows orders, we get a double lynch each day. A double lynch is always advantageous for town, as it means we get to kill off 2 people each day/night cycle instead of 1. Without the CV role, Mafia/SK have a KP of 2, we have a KP of 1. With the CV role, Mafia/SK have a KP of 2, we have a KP of 2. Big benefit for town. At some point the CV becomes a liability(if we keep mislynching), but at the start of the game, a CV following orders is a plus for the town. If the CV ever doesn't shoot the proper player, then we lynch the CV, and the player who was supposed to get hit. Interesting, I see it as exactly the opposite: the CV hurts us early on, but may be helpful later. The CV's KP = shots in the dark early on, most likely we will kill townies and end the game faster, the SK and mafia should love it. Now, late game, when we may have more information, an extra KP could be quite helpful. So to me the question is whether it is worth killing 1-2 probable townies nights 2 and 3 so we have an extra KP later on, and hope we can use it wisely. Also note that the comp vigi KP isn't quite the same as a lynching: it can't kill the SK or any bullet proof role. These are issues if we have a town-aligned CV. If this is a mafia role it's a lot more dangerous. So it is very much unclear to me that this role is overall helpful for the town. Alternatively, as someone else mentioned either here or in the prior PYP game, we could role-block them until we are ready to use them. Of course, this assumes we'd have a role blocker. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
That said, since the killing only starts night 2 I guess there's no reason to make a decision now. Let's see where we are then. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Part of me likes the idea of trying to make sure we get the right roles. Based on last game it's pretty clear good roles often get overlooked. However, having a public roles list also make me nervous. I know this is a probabilistic list, but it still makes sniping very easy after a few days, when more information is available about who picked what. Also, I can't shake the feeling that this plan is most helpful to the SK. It's one thing to be looking for the investigative roles in the whole population and another to start by killing #7, #10 and #13 to be pretty certain you've killed bullet bill. Especially if the medics follow this advice: This plan however, leaves slots 14-20 as quite vulnerable to hits from both the SK and the Mafia. Therefore, our medics need to be protecting these slots(as well as the CV slot) to increase the chances of blocking a hit. Spots 2-4 don't really matter if they die, spots 5-13 have a decent shot at having a defensive role. Without bullet bill the SK is pretty comfortable: immune to night hits or comp vigi, showing up as town aligned to checks, etc. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 23 2010 11:33 Pandain wrote: Before I clicked "more random numbers", I said to myself I would actually go with whatever it decided. So despite the fact I kept on saying "I'm gonna be mason" I will only do so if it lays within 6-10. Sending in my role. Also, Citizen, are you saying that all the SK has to do is kill the bullet bill and then he can go safely? (besides role cop at first) Just want to know what your saying before I respond. I thin the SK's primary concern are bullet bill and the tracker. The meth man is a threat as well, as Radfiled pointed out above. From the town's perspective bullet bill is an awesome role & the top priority to grab and keep protected I would think. Should anyone care, I picked [18][1]. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Some concerns: 1. "Reserved" roles. Lower drafting mafia (and the SK, for that matter) can take whatever role they want and claim they didn't get any role. For example, grab any of Pardoner / Floridian(great for SK) / Role Blocker / God Father then say "uhhh... I went for a defensive role but it was taken". I know Radfield said he's not too concerned with these roles, but to me they are a HUGE deal late game - think of all the missed lynches we can have. They are, after all, in the game to help the mafia. It's true that in principle we could verify "plain vanilla" claims, but in reality sorting it out will take too long & the mafia can always justify their claim based on how dead people flipped. So all these roles are too safe for the mafia to grab for my liking. 2. Blue sniping. The list still makes finding investigative roles quite easy once the lynchings start. Once the meth man is dead th SK can get a very clear hit list with likely bullet bill and the tracker candidates. I cannot emphasize this enough: once the drafting phase is over, don't start claiming your roles in the thread unless yo are 100% sure it leads to catching a liar. You might think claiming what you got or didn't get does you no harm, but remember it will also reveal information about other players. 3. The list. For me there are two key town investigative roles: bullet bill and tracker. These are great roles to find mafia and the only ones to detect the SK. The alignment cop is also important, but given their uncertain sanity + inability to detect SK/GF it's a lot weaker in my book. I'd suggest prioritizing bullet bill over all other investigative roles, placing tracker next on our list and leaving the alignment cop for last. Finally, please don't just feel like you are doing your job at this stage by using an RNG and calling it a day. Help us improve this plan by thinking critically, or we'll be screwed later on. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 24 2010 01:22 Radfield wrote: Why are you ignoring the plan? It's like you're determined to be hard-headed about this "game hasn't started" business. Let me quote Ace for you "The game has now officially started!" Either post why you think the plan has flaws so we can iron them out, like citizen is doing, or help out by coming up with something else. Don't make excuses for why you're not helping. Citizen, I have more to say to address and expand on your concerns, I just don't have the time right now. Also, People may need to send in new roles to Ace since the drafting order has changed. I just realized that any "list" suggestions made today look like I am trying to shift roles around now that I know the draft order, something nobody would have any reason to trust at this point. So, while I continue to have my reservations, I don't know that we can do much at this point. Ideally there would be some threat of picking pro-mafia roles at some point (could also nicely "bisect" the list into two sub-sets so we'd know where the mafia roles likely hide) + the bullet bill and tracker would be higher priority. At this point it probably is what it is though. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 24 2010 06:21 Divinek wrote: that was my one true hope as well going into this draft At this point you might as well stick to the list. Also, take the RNG part seriously - we need doctors and the meth man threat. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 24 2010 11:16 chaoser wrote: um, why isn't copy cat up on top? mafia will probably try to kill CV and if copy cat is in their hands then they'll get the power... Among other problems... | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 24 2010 11:28 Pandain wrote: 14-16 75% chance of copy cat(more so since it's recomeneded.) So sure mafia can try to kill the CV despite doctor protection, but it'll all be a waste >. Do you SERIOUSLY expect the mafia to let that role drop so far down the list? Just because you asked them nicely? Chaoser's point is very good and fits with my overall discomfort with the list business. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 23 2010 10:54 Ace wrote: I spoke to Korynne and she said she wont have the time to replace in. She does have a life to live ya know? Anyway this is the Draft Order ^_^
You all have ~24 hours which is tomorrow night at 10:00 PM ET/11:00 KST to send in your role picks. Good luck! | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Speaking of rolling over and dying, is jspazz going to be mod-killed for an extra bit of LOL? This seems to be his last post: On August 22 2010 12:20 johnnyspazz wrote: it's not really forced double lynches everyday. we can just no lynch and have the CV shoot. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
After that the only thing you should be doing is randomizing between a defensive role and useful town role. Don't announce exactly what you do (ex: don't say you're 50% cop). Randomize honestly, we need defensive roles. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 25 2010 12:29 Divinek wrote: why was he such a good lynch target? What does he ever do day 1 besides suggest retarded plans that can screw the town over. Why bother wasting a lynch on someone you know we'll have to kill because of his play style. Why risk a repeat performance of pyp The faster we die/use KPs, the happier the mafia is. One person already got mod killed - chances are it was a townie. Now another townie died in Bill. So it's probably 18v4v1 now. We will probably mis-lynch (day 1 lynches are very rarely successful). There will be 2 KPs night 1, making it a probable 15v4v1 at the start of day 2. From night 2 onwards there should be 3 KP each night... this could unravel fast. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 25 2010 23:58 SouthRawrea wrote: Well shit. I would like to announce that at least 2 people did not follow along with the plan made for role picking. I was going to yell at you for publicly making any statements revealing information about what you or other people got. I still don't think it's a good idea to flat out announce stuff like that and make it easier for the mafia/Sk to kill good roles and avoid the meth man. Then I noticed you picked 6th and are claiming to know that TWO people did not follow the plan. I am intrigued. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 25 2010 10:28 citi.zen wrote: The first 3 spots should stick to the designated picks, and be held accountable for it. Fourth spot could choose roleblocker. After that the only thing you should be doing is randomizing between a defensive role and useful town role. Don't announce exactly what you do (ex: don't say you're 50% cop). Randomize honestly, we need defensive roles. On August 25 2010 10:24 Radfield wrote: I don't think we should scrap the plan. Stick with the plan, as it should give us a ton of good roles. The only addendum I think really may need to happen is picking up the roleblocker fairly high up. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
However, having a traitor in those top 4 picks is actually really great, because if the mafia want to try and pick up the traitor, they have to start shooting at the roles we already want dead: CV, Bad Santa, PoD, maybe Roleblocker. Great, let them do our work for us. We really don't need to worry about the traitor at all for now. Not quite true, the mafia don't need to sacrifice a KP: Traitor - You hold no allegiance to the town. If you are targeted by Scum at night with any action, instead of that action happening you'll be recruited by them instead. You lose if the Mafia lose. However you are part of the town count before recruitment. This role is nullified for the Serial Killer(s) since it may be too broken if they have it. They could use a ... doctor or something. We wouldn't even know it - the mafia count is undisclosed. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 26 2010 02:35 ~OpZ~ wrote: I feel like hearing from Chaoser, LSB, Subversion a little more....Too quiet TBH. I would like some more information right now. We can either ignore hesmyrr from this point or not. Anyone got some stances on that? Radfield, you are forgetting the mafia can target the traitor with ANY action and obtain the traitor onto their team. I'm curious if we are informed if the mafia's number grows, since we know how many mafia are in the game already. Ace could you clarify that? No, WE don't: # of Mafia in the Game | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 26 2010 02:37 zeks wrote: You are Vanilla Scum! The ability to kill 1 player per night belongs to you. One of you must PM me a kill for the night even though all of you participate in the kill. Remember you can coordinate your # picks during the draft phase. The Mafia team this round consists of: Jack, Jill, this bottle and my ecstasy pills! You win when you outnumber the town, or there is no way for them to stop you from outnumbering them. see bolded part. Unless that's some meme or some inside joke I'm assuming theres 4 scum? Right, I guessed 4 as well, it's just not officially posted so there's nothing for Ace to update. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
He flips traitor: :D! Flips town: We know that Chaoser is town. Please don't confuse roles with alignments. That said, I will likely vote for Hesmyrr at this time. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
I don't actually think SR did this, but I am saying it's a possibility in this set-up. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 26 2010 05:15 Pandain wrote: Wait... you can't shoot tonight? If so, what does that mean about the next days lynch. We can't just kill SR tonight then. -.- Right now we get to lynch someone. Hesmyrr is a good target. Based on how he flips we decide where to go next. Nobody ever said we'd automatically kill SR. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 26 2010 09:45 Fishball wrote: You're missing my point. I'm not blaming you or anyone for putting the CV as the 4th pick. The CV draft chance should rightfully be there due to the exact reason you mentioned. My post above was based specifically on Hesmyrr's scenario; More of an "If I were him, how I would think" scenario. We all know Hesmyrr is not likely to be Mafia, or else he'll just be suicidal. Keep in mind, I'm not denying the chances of Hesmyrr of being Traitor at all. The post above is simply explaining why I asked the question hours ago. I've been thinking about this as well: ex-ante it makes perfect sense for the #4 pick to promise they will choose one of the 3 roles ahead of them, as a deterrent; however, expecting this to work, when it comes time to actually choose, the #4 pick would in fact have a very low chance to "catch a liar" - much lower than 33% since most likely the top 3 spots did not lie (especially not the CV). So why not choose a different role altogether! If he chose traitor it is a bit disappointing, but hey... it is what it is. I just hope other people took the strong investigative roles, otherwise we're in for a slaughter. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 26 2010 10:08 zeks wrote: You can also go a game back when he was Miller That game he was the miller from hell. In general he is a bit like Bill M and naturally fits Ace's description of "obvious scum to the point of destroying the entire game (the easiest to lynch but the hardest to find a trail after they die)". | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
I think he must be referring to the early posts by Radfield in which he left our the alignment cop from his top pro-town investigative roles: On August 21 2010 03:34 Radfield wrote: OK, lets get the ball rolling here. First things first: Roles. I've divided the roles into several categories, first is essential town roles. These are roles that we absolutely have to have. This is a 20 person game, and the mafia have a KP of one. SK also has a KP of 1. CompVig has a KP of 1, Town has lynch power of 1. This means 4 deaths per night, so we get 4 days before we're in trouble. Given this fact, we need as much investigative power as possible. This is how we will win the game. Essential Roles(Investigative) Role Cop - GF Watcher - GF, Mafia, SK Tracker - GF, Mafia, SK Joat - Mafia Bullet Bill - GF, Mafia, SK You may have noticed that Alignment Cop is not on this essential list. This is for two reasons. The sanity of the Alignment Cop is unknown, and the Alignment Cop cannot find either the Godfather, or the Serial Killer. Of those five roles, Watcher, Tracker and Bullet Bill are the most important, due to the fact they can find the Godfather and the Serial Killer. I cannot stress enough that these are the most important pro-town roles in the game. Yes there are a lot of roles that seem cooler or more fun, but these five roles are what will win us the game. Second is the Mafia roles: These are roles that are fantastic in mafia hands, mediocre or downright useless in Town hands: KP roles Comp Vig Bad Santa Vengeful Player Day Vig Other Floridian God Father Role Blocker Pardoner A few of these may stand out as being neutral as opposed to pro-mafia, but don't be fooled. ANYTHING that adds additional KP to the game is bad for the town. Why? Obviously first and foremost because they hasten the end of the game for the town, considering that town players have a very bad track record with extraneous KP. Second, not only does a missed shot eliminate a town player, it also eliminates a Power Role. Every player should be assumed to have a role, which means if a town player uses KP and misses, we may lose a vital role for the town. We have lynches as town, so lets kill players that way. Comp Vig: I've bolded CompVig in that list for a very good reason. I believe that this role is perhaps the most important in the game. In unknown hands (mafia hands) CompVig doubles the Mafia KP. In known hands(Town or Mafia) the CompVig doubles our lynch Power. Each day we vote on who the compvig will hit that night. IE, CompVig: Qatol. In PYP1, the CompVig was held by a mafia, but it didn't matter, because he followed the town direction and killed who we wanted killed. If the CompVig doesn't follow our direction they die. Yes, in PYP1 the CV only hit townies, but he hit scummy townies that were up for lynch, instead of hitting townies who were playing pro-town. This is a huge difference. I propose that whomever gets 1st pick takes CV. To not take CV as first pick is, in my eyes, extremely anti-town. We absolutely MUST know who has this role. Once we know, the power of the role is neutralized. Bad Santa is the other important role on this list, and is the most useful role on the list for town to have because it has a hint of investigative power, and gives information to the town. The other 6 roles are all pro-mafia roles. Some people are saying we as town should try to take these roles so that mafia cannot get them. I disagree with that sentiment. The better route to go, is to have every pro-town player avoid these roles like the plague(with the exception of CV). This means that our Role Cop(already essential for town), becomes a super cop. Because anyone who has any of those 6/7 roles is automatically a mafia member. None of those 6/7 roles are powerful enough to warrant us blocking the mafia from getting them, so we should steer clear of them and give ourselves a bonus on investigation. Also, by leaving DayVig, Bad Santa and Vengeful Player(??) for the mafia to take, it makes Bullet Bill much stronger by him not getting confused by pro-town players with guns. Other Good Roles for Town Alignment Cop Bulletproof Veteran Meth Man Doctor Doctor These roles don't really need any explanation. They are all much more pro-town then pro-mafia. This leaves the last three(unless I missed some): Mason Martyr Copy Cat Mason is powerful in the right hands. Martyr is so-so. Copy Cat is not real important in my eyes, given that we start with a lynch, so the mafia can't snipe the CV and then scoop it up. However, if we lynch someone on Day 1 who is Vanilla, then we run the risk of having mafia take the CV via the Copy Cat, which would be very bad for the town. For this reason, I think we should have whoever is at pick #5 be responsible for taking Copy Cat. Thoughts? If mafia chooses to take the pro-mafia roles, that's great. It gives us more effective investigative powers. If mafia chooses to avoid the pro-mafia roles, that's also great, as it keeps the most effective power roles from the mafia. We should probably have some way of divvying up the 5 essential roles so that we know they all get taken. Possibly divide the first 15 draft picks into 5 groups of 3, and give each group 1 of the essential roles. 1-3 Role Cop, 4-6 Tracker, 7-9 Watcher, etc. Then whichever player wants an investigative role knows which one they can pick. IE, the 7th player wants an investigative role, so he knows that his option is watcher. Something like that. Thoughts? To recap: We prioritize the essential 5 roles for town and make sure they get taken, no town players take any of the pro-mafia roles, first draft pick takes CV, 5th draft pick takes Copy Cat. The town has the advantage in this set-up, we just have to be smart enough to use it. Please address as many points here as you can. Agree or Disagree. This is when we make our plan for the entire game. The thing is, Radfield said this before the game had even started, when he didn't know his role yet: On August 06 2010 19:29 Radfield wrote: Yeah, I was planning on taking the Impatient Mason role if I was Town this game. I had a decent plan of action and it would've been super fun for me I feel like no one is ever going to take Alignment Cop. With a 50% chance of getting a useless role(naive and paranoid), and 3 or 4 other good investigative roles out there, it's just too much to risk your pick on. Also, just a little reminder to everyone. After the draft you will need to PM the role you want to Ace, he's not going to PM you to ask. Last game like 5 of the 20 people didn't choose a role, which made things way harder for town then they needed to be. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote: I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some (major) editing to account for the DayVig Standard Scenario Assumptions SK: 1. Always kills a town Mafia: 2. Always kills a town CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts hitting reds 100%) Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch mafia the rest of the time All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’. Not using my power (Expected Outcome) Day 1: 13/4/1 Night 1: 12/4/1 Day 2: 10/4/1 Night 2: 9/4/1 Day 3: 6/4/1 Night 3: 6/3/1 Day 4: 4/2/1 Night 4: 4/1/1 Day 5: 1/1/1 Total Days: 4 Using My power 1st night Day 1: 13/4/1 Night 1: 12/4/1 Night 2: 10/4/1 Day 3: 7/4/1 Night 3: 6/4/1 Day 4: 3/3/1 Worse Odds Total Days: 3 Using My power 2nd night Day 1: 13/4/1 Night 1: 12/4/1 Day 2: 10/4/1 Night 2: 9/4/1 Night 3: 6/4/1 Day 4: 4/3/1 Night 4: 4/2/1 Day 5: 2/2/1 Total Days: 3 Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us to kill mafia. The more lynches the better Conclusion: Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to watch out for people wanting to use my power. In the penalty mafia you argued with Ace and constantly tried to find reds. In this game, on the other hand, you've had many posts like this one: lots of words to "roughly reach the same conclusion" as the rest of us. Let me show you what I mean. First, posts that add no content: On August 21 2010 08:58 LSB wrote: rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Pandain:6 Bill: 7 Hesmyrr/zeks: 8 I will be picking 5,1 On August 21 2010 10:19 LSB wrote: Number Claims (Please tell me if you change) JeeJee: 1 DTA: 2 rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Bill: 6 Hesmyrr/zeks: 8 Pandain: 12 Then, posts that are wrong, add no content, and include ideas you never return to (again, surprising given your style last game): On August 22 2010 03:59 LSB wrote: If you guys want a plan, we should assign people roles. The 20 least detrimental to town roles. Although people will get scum roles, they can still utilize them for town. + Show Spoiler + Floridian Pardoner Bad Santa Vengeful Player Day Vig Role Cop Tracker Joat Bullet Bill Alignment Cop Bulletproof Veteran Meth Man Doctor Doctor Mason Copy Cat Watcher Comp Vig Martyr Just randomly assign people to a role. Then, role cops / watchers have their job a lot easier. Also, if a person picks a role, and discovers he's vanilla, its another way to detect something fishy. Had me scratch me head, and that was before you added this bit a minute later: On August 22 2010 04:00 LSB wrote: If you are concerned about blue sniping, I can PM everyone their roles. That way no mafia will know. The day vigi can kill me day 1 to verify that I am town. Right, we should let you (unconfirmed player) PM everyone their roles, in a game where there are no PMs. Pandain replies with this weak message: On August 22 2010 04:03 Pandain wrote: No, Radfield's plan is already incrediably solid and allows more information and scum hunting abilities. And already no one really has to be concerned about blue sniping. LSB immediately backs down, even though Pandain hardly said anything: On August 22 2010 04:06 LSB wrote: Oh whoops, first readthrough I didn't get it. I agree with Radfield's plan. But why is Day Vig a mafia role? After today's lynch you will be my best target. As an added bonus, as you yourself say, your role will not help the town at any rate. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 27 2010 02:29 LSB wrote: Oh I didnt bother to read the bottom of your post Citi.zen But its halarious why you think I 'backed down'. The reason why I backed down is that there are No PMs . Perhaps you also didn't read your own "explanatory" post, where you say you just hadn't read Radfield's plan. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 27 2010 02:26 LSB wrote: You paint a picture of me that is completly incorrect and then you claim that I am not following it and therefore call me out? I am not recklass. I do not argue with anyone untill I am certain that they are mafia. I might have made a mistake about Ace, but your preformance was desicive, in a bad way. Look back at my posts in the games. I am analytic, I discuss plans, and I look at incentives. Please don't spread wrong information You misunderstand: I am NOT criticizing your play last game. On the contrary, I agree entirely with your description of your style that game - analytic, discussing plans, looking at incentives. What bothers me is your are NOT doing any of that this time around. You are merely trying to blend in, making long posts that offer no new information and proposing "plans" that do nothing. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 27 2010 02:36 LSB wrote: I know what I am talking about. That post was to explain that I had not found a flaw in his plan The fact that there is no pms is why i decided not to expand on my idea Just wondering. So why did you not include that post in your "analysis" of me? Is it because its easier to twist my words to fit your own thoughts? Why did you not include any of my real Day 1 posts, and instead settle on my posts to help keep track of things? The person you portray does not exist You mean real posts like this one: On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote: I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some (major) editing to account for the DayVig Standard Scenario Assumptions SK: 1. Always kills a town Mafia: 2. Always kills a town CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts hitting reds 100%) Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch mafia the rest of the time All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’. Not using my power (Expected Outcome) Day 1: 13/4/1 Night 1: 12/4/1 Day 2: 10/4/1 Night 2: 9/4/1 Day 3: 6/4/1 Night 3: 6/3/1 Day 4: 4/2/1 Night 4: 4/1/1 Day 5: 1/1/1 Total Days: 4 Using My power 1st night Day 1: 13/4/1 Night 1: 12/4/1 Night 2: 10/4/1 Day 3: 7/4/1 Night 3: 6/4/1 Day 4: 3/3/1 Worse Odds Total Days: 3 Using My power 2nd night Day 1: 13/4/1 Night 1: 12/4/1 Day 2: 10/4/1 Night 2: 9/4/1 Night 3: 6/4/1 Day 4: 4/3/1 Night 4: 4/2/1 Day 5: 2/2/1 Total Days: 3 Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us to kill mafia. The more lynches the better Conclusion: Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to watch out for people wanting to use my power. Even you know that was weak, so you followed it up with this: On August 27 2010 01:55 LSB wrote: If your wondering about my post, it is to say that I arrived at roughly the same conclusion that you did I really wan't to hear Paldian. Please explain yourself and your motives | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 27 2010 11:00 Hesmyrr wrote: Of course, I really may not be understanding the benefits of PoD case since ~OpZ~ ninja post seem to be supporting it, but if Radfield suddenly starts acting scummy it is something to take note. You said it was "noteworthy" instead of "odd" or something stronger, and Opz misunderstood the rest of your post it seems. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 27 2010 12:58 LSB wrote: I'm trying to figure out why SR wants us to lynch him. There has been a lot of suspision on whether or not SR is geniuine. SR could be trying to lynch himself to prove that there is a traitor. HOWEVER. This would be wasting two lynches for very little information. A very promafia tactic This casts some doubt on my side On the other hand, there is a lot of suspicion on SR. Possibly he could be a mafia going on a sucide run, seing how much damages and fake associations he can make before he dies. The real question then is, is 1 town dead due to Vengeful Player worth 1 mafia? If he's red and vengeful you could argue it's more like 2 townies for 1 mafia, plus the wasted time. I don't know if it's "worth it" for them though. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 27 2010 23:14 rastaban wrote: Remember, the watcher is actually a horrible role this game. Even if they watched someone we investigated they would only know how many people visited him. The biggest worry I have is the mafia trying to target people as we investigate them, which would keep us from building up a group of confirmed innocents. On the other hand if you are the alignment cop you don't know what your sanity is so the faster your first target dies and help confirm it the better (the reason why we want them to target someone who will probably die tomorrow). Ah, you're right, forgot how weak the watcher is. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Chaoser - too quiet for my taste / not trying to contribute LSB - went over his posts yesterday, he responded fine, but can't hurt to check BrownBear - Too quiet / not trying to contribute siNiquity - A few strange posts here and there, like the little exchange with Fishball or the early argument that we as long as number picks are kept secret we don't need a weighting algorithm Divinek - odd pick + shooting on day 1, even if it was BM. At the end of the day I fear Radfield might be right guessing we don't have that many investigative roles despite the plan, so we'll need to at least force more forum activity out of people. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 28 2010 10:14 Pandain wrote: Don't roleclaim. It makes mafia unable to tell whether they actually hit a good role or the target just got medic protection. And roleclaiming won't help us anyway since no pms. Only thing it does is make them confirmed, but even then that isn't that helpful. If really need be he can say he got hit if he's going to die. Also, the serial killer did. Right, the Sk killed Subversion and mafia hit the vet/medic protected person. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
If Zeks told the truth, either Southrawarea lied, or there is a traitor in the top 3. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Also, does a role take precedence over the mafia hit from the watcher's perspective? Ex: is a mafia doctor protects someone other than Zeks, would that medic not be counted in as a visitor to Zeks? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
So we had 4 mafia, one died but there is a traitor somewhere.+ Show Spoiler + I don't think the game would have one 3 mafia, at the end of last PYP Ace said he would give the mafia another KP in the future, but instead put in more mafia-friendly roles. I don't see him taking their number down to 3. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 29 2010 03:54 JeeJee wrote: how did you draw the conclusion that there is a traitor somewhere? I guess there doesn't have to be if SR lied. I'd still think it unlikely, but who knows. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 29 2010 04:41 zeks wrote: Radfield: I went with the 33/33/33 role cop / copy cat / defensive role because there was mention that copycat should be picked earlier. I truthfully randomed my role. Something that I've discovered SR #6 below me is assumed vanilla town, Subversion at #7 was vanilla mafia Which means Subversion could've overlaped with 1. rastaban CV 2. chaoser Bad Santa/traitor 3. LSB PoD/traitor 5. me RC/CC/Defensive role/traitor Likelihood of Subversion picking CV next to nothing Bad Santa or PoD Don't see why Subversion will pick those either. Traitor: He's scum so he wouldn't pick traitor. me: RC/CC/Defensive Role Subversion likely overlapped with me and since Subversion is dead then it is likely that scum would know what my role is... Unless Subversion overlapped with SouthRawrea, then that means South never picked traitor in the beginning - which doesn't make sense because South would be a townie with a role but lied about being a traitor Thus conclusion: mafia knows my role and wants me dead by lynch since they couldn't finish the job last night Which is why I'm not claiming because they will call me out on it. Very interesting post, I need to think about this more. You're saying the mafia knew your (defensive) role, but still chose to hit you, right? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 29 2010 07:11 SouthRawrea wrote: 4 people visited Zeks. Any mafia actions show as all mafia visiting to the watcher. (Including ones that die by day) Thus if mafia visited Zeks, then no townies other than the watcher visited Zeks correct? Simple. However, Zeks said he was shot and protected. He couldn't have been shot by Vig as they can't shoot. He claims he was protected by the doctor. If he was protected by the doctor and shot by the mafia, the watcher would've seen 5 people visiting Zeks which is NOT the case. Thus it was either a combination of SK and town roles that visited Zeks or only mafia. The fact that Zeks is still alive means that he was either CONVERTED by mafia or was never visited by them. That better? If the SK shot Zeks then the mafia shot their own guy in Subversion. As JeeJee said, you make no sense. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 29 2010 11:50 Fishball wrote: I just got back from some weekend activities and I see my name all over the place. What have you done ~Opz~? Just went through 9 pages, and wanted to make a quick short comment to the bold part up top. Comp Vig cannot shoot on Night 1... Are you kidding me? The 2nd sentence after the one you bold is: He couldn't anyways. It was night 1 I am not going to pretend I follow SR's logic, but that was a very odd post from you Fishball. THAT is what you wanted to comment on from the last 9 pages? Sin's profile quote, which you cited earlier, seems to fit quite nicely: On August 27 2010 08:18 Fishball wrote: Wise men speak because they have something to say; fools because they have to say something; trolls just because. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
That concern aside, too much in his story does not add up, so he has to be lying and/or have made a mistake. So yeah... ##vote Zeks | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 29 2010 13:05 Pandain wrote: ##Pardon Zeks If you really are the pardoner you have a lot of explaining to do. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 29 2010 23:42 Radfield wrote: Fishball, I'd still like to hear who you looked at last night. I can't see any reason why you wouldn't claim, even if you did look at Opz or jeejee(potential JOATs). The info is simply more worthwhile in town hands then in mafia. Certainly if you looked at anyone other than Opz or Jeejee you should reveal. I may be wrong here though, so if anyone disagrees speak up. You are right, Fishball should come forward with the result of his check. I am OK using the CompVig on LSB tonight. I picked on him earlier and I still think he makes a decent target. At best he's traitor, at worst he is town PoD, which is not a bad loss. I am also curious to hear more from SiNiquity - he made some early errors I brushed off then came out strong suggesting Zeks was the SK pretty much at the same time as LSB figured it out. Remember, the mafia knew Zeks was SK at this point. His posts in general seem to be putting out some ideas but never quite following through, attempts to "seem active" rather than "solve puzzles". + Show Spoiler + Ex: strange reasoning On August 23 2010 07:35 SiNiquity wrote: Pandain: If numbers are kept secret, then I don't see a reason to do a weighted algorithm (% based) instead of just a plain role assignment. Ex: SK call On August 29 2010 04:07 SiNiquity wrote: Here's an up to date list of roles:
It occurred to me earlier there's a possibility for Zeks that AFAIK hasn't been mentioned -- that being that he's the Serial Killer. On August 29 2010 16:00 Pandain wrote: O i see I forgot about the Joat. He's possibly one of our last investigative roles too :/ . So kp is now 1? 1 kill a night is really managable n.n The night KP is actually 2 because of the CV. The good thing is we most likely control that hit, and have some leads now. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 30 2010 02:55 Radfield wrote: First: we had no idea what subversion drafted, he could have gone for CompVig for all we knew. Second: Even if zeks did claim role cop, it could have still been bs, since of course he has to claim either role cop or a defensive role. But yes, it was foolish for him to claim role cop, that was his real mistake. Third: Zeks acting cornered doesn't make him more likely to be either SK or traitor. He was in the spotlight the moment I asked for his roleclaim, and he messed it up from there. At no point was the possibility of zeks being traitor zero. In fact, up until his admission of SK, I still thought he might be traitor. A bigger problem with the argument against LSB being "too sure" Zeks was SK is that, if he is traitor, he probably did NOT get recruited, so he would not have that knowledge from the mafia. Someone like Sin popping up to say "hi, I just thought of this, have to go now, byebye" if far more worrisome to me. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 30 2010 04:59 Fishball wrote: I don't think having me check SR would be the best way to go. The Traitor scenario is only left with 3 players. Assuming SR is the Traitor afterall, do you think the Mafia would actually recruit him? He is bound to die sooner or later. Recruiting the Traitor doesn't increases the Mafias' KP. Leaving SR alone would be in their best interest, while they can focus their powers on other players. The only situation that I can think of where the Mafia would deliberately recruit a Traitor out in the open, would be at an end game nail-biting scenario when a single player count would be a win/lose. Anyways, I think there are plenty of candidates on our player list to check. Some of the fishier players, we have BrownBear, JeeJee, DarthThienAn, SiNiquity, and Pandain. Hell, even Radfield is not confirmed. If I checked Radfield and he doesn't have a gun, Town basically have a smart, semi-confirmed Townie to go to, granted if me and Radfield are not Mafia. I'll be picking one of the players listed above to check tonight. Agreed, as stated above, if we cv LSB it makes no sense checking SR. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Also, why would you track a 50% role cop if you were town anyway? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 30 2010 22:46 Radfield wrote: Of course it needs to be mentioned that you could still be scum if both you AND fishball are scum. Seems highly highly unlikely though. So unlikely in fact, that it's really not worth discussing. The one interesting thing in this scenario is you'd have 3 mafia picking sequentially and getting the 7, 8, and 9 spots, and picking role cop (failed), bullet bill and tracker. Pretty unlikely, but who knows. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 05:00 ~OpZ~ wrote: Hey Citizen...I'm guessing you think Radfield should be tracked tonight? =P Would you do that if you were tracker? I would certainly not be tracking SR - it seems like a waste, especially in Pandain's plan to watch and track him, while also killing LSB. We'd be wasting an entire night on them to learn little additional information about one single player. I'd track someone like Sinliquidy. Radfield is not a bad target either though. If we could somehow Fishball as town-aligned we'd be in fantastic shape. I think his check on you pretty much confirms you either way (unless, as Radfield said you're both red, which I just don't see). | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
This also means we should CV Southrawarea. Medic - protect Opz! | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 06:00 Pandain wrote: I don't see how this is anyway more effective than tracking South and killing LSB. Except in our plan if LSB happens to be mafia, we manage to kill him(since he is an extremely dangerous role in the hands of mafia.) So my way is the same, with an added bonus. Stick with tracking South. Sudden change, Citizen. Very interesting one too. Hiding something? *Insert more random baseless suspicion* Actually there is a difference: if guilty, South would not be traitor but real mafia making a false claim; LSB would be the traitor. This means South could be the vengeful player making a fake claim and not caring too much if he gets lynched, while LSB could not be vengeful. So out of the two I think South is better to CV and LSB better to lynch, if we see him visit anyone. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
So yeah, my suggestion is your plan but switching their names around. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 10:11 Radfield wrote: GG Town, GG Mafia Have Fun Now I can actually spend more time working and less time playing mafia You will be missed. I was hoping to have your help after today. With both of us alive the town would be in excellent shape. Still, we're not doing too bad. New information: Opz lied. He is not the tracker, I am the tracker. A townie would have zero reason to fake claim tracker in this set-up, so Opz must be mafia. Now, since Fishball "confirmed" him to not have a gun, Fishball lied as well. Now, I realize that from a neutral person's stand-point, you have little reason to trust me. So I'm asking you to think through this carefully. Consider this: my claim comes out of nowhere. I don't think anyone had even one vote on me this game. More importantly, if I am lying you will know as soon as we lynch Opz and he flips tracker. At worst this would be a 1 to 1 trade for the town. For the past day I've played along with Opz, pretending to believe him even when he blatantly tried to fish out my role: On August 31 2010 05:00 ~OpZ~ wrote: Hey Citizen...I'm guessing you think Radfield should be tracked tonight? =P Would you do that if you were tracker? I stayed quiet to make sure I'd live one more night to narrow down the whole "traitor in the top 6" saga. I was also concerned bad santa could give the mafia many KPs and wanted to check Chaoser. These are facts. Now let me give you some speculation: I strongly believe Southrawarea is also red and the mafia roleblocked the CV hit tonight after I insisted we use the CV on South instead of LSB. We'll have time to sort this out after we kill Opz though. My night actions thus far went to: Night one: JeeJee, saw him visit DarthThienAn. Once JeeJee confirms this action, you have more reason to think I am telling the truth. The alternative is that JeeJee and I are both red, which you would know as soon as Opz flipped tracker. In the unlikely possibility JeeJee will not confirm my story, JeeJee is red. In that case I would not care whether you lynch me or Opz, either action would give you 3 mafia and we'd be sitting pretty. Night two: I tracked Chaoser. He stayed put, so Chaoser is confirmed town. I tracked him because I feared the mafia might have more KP through the bad santa, and because bad santa is a non-traveling role. Plan: Lynch Opz today and win this thing. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
##Lynch ~Opz~ | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 11:27 Fishball wrote: If everyone decides to follow your lynch, I will cast my vote for Opz as well. But I want everyone, including you, to remember one thing. I said he has no gun, and that is a true as it gets. If he flips non-tracker town, I will gladly remove my suspicion of you. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 11:29 chaoser wrote: Ok Ace, question. Since mafia all visit a person when they kill him, does that mean they are all "responsible" for his death? If yes, does that mean if I have even on mafia on my list, I would get my power? That's a huge question. It would be fantastic if we could confirm 4 people at a clip. I already know you are town, so it would be pretty powerful. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 12:03 Ace wrote: Yes. @citizen: Remember Tracker watches roles based on precedence. So a bullletproof Scum for instance will show up as not moving to you. That's messed up! So ANY mafia with a role is undetectable via the tracker? I thought it was just roles that "visited" people that took me to the wrong place, not that any role makes people static. I probably would not have picked tracker if I knew that :-) This means I wasted the night check, I cannot ever confirm Chaoser. Should have just called out Opz yesterday and hear Radfield's thoughts on this. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 12:05 chaoser wrote: ok guys, from what Ace said, the people on my list, if you believe me to be townie, are all innocent/townie since Radfield was on my list, he died and no one on my list was the cause of his death. My list is: radfield, sin, ~opz~, citi.zen, bumatlarge yeah...figure that shit out.... If Opz is town and decided to lie about being the tracker... all I can do is sigh. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 12:22 Ace wrote: Actually if you read the FAQS there clearly is: I read Q 13 many times and took it to mean that any role with movement, such as the role-blocker, takes precedence, not that any role, even static ones, make the tracker useless. At any rate. Here we are now: I still know Opz lied, but Chaoser says both me and Opz are innocent. The CV probably got role-blocked last night, but confirmation would be nice. Bum saw someone visit LSB, even though I did not visit him (would have done no good anyway according to latest clarification). Raaaadfiled! | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 12:41 chaoser wrote: Just to tell you all, there would be only one reason I would give out the list I did and that would be to save Opz from citi.zen. That's about it. What good is it for mafia if I played the move I just did? It would have been better if I didn't say anything cause I could just make up any list I want to incriminate anyone else. It would be plenty good if you were mafia with Opz and Fishball. It's either that, or believing Opz simply lied for the sake of it, as town. Are there other possibilities? Other solutions than to lynch Opz or myself? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 13:16 bumatlarge wrote: *MMBOP - The was a nifty list of all roles not claimed, but apparently we have a mafia methman running around also? Or maybe its just the traitor thrashin for info. Lets poke him with a stick, and kill south now. Opz claimed meth man. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 14:28 Ace wrote: This question doesn't make sense. The role block stops a role from acting and destroys BP. It has no effect on medic protections. Also a lot of questions can be answered by reading the OP. Just making sure, thanks. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
#1 rastaban--- Comp Vig (role confirmed by Hesmyrr), claims he got RB-ed night 2 #2 Chaoser --- Likely Bad Santa, list of Elfs: Radfield, Sinliquidy, Citi.zen, Opz, Bumatlarge #3 LSB --- Prince of Darkness, was watched + visited by one other person night 2 #4 #5 #6 Southrawrea --- Claims he picked Traitor but got vanilla #7 #8 Fishball --- claimed Bullet Bill, checked Opz night one and Sinliquidy night 2 #9 Opz --- Claimed Meth Man after claiming Tracker, ELF, no gun according to Fishball #10 Citizen --- Tracker, ELF, JeeJee to DTA night one, saw Chaoser stand still night 2 #11 BrownBear #12 JeeJee - Can travel, visited DTA night 1 #13 DarthThienAn #14 siNiquity --- ELF, no gun according to Fishball #15 Divinek --- Day Vig, killed BM day 1 #16 #17 #18 Bumatlarge --- Watcher, ELF, saw 4 people visit Zeks night 1and one visit LSB night 2 #19 Pandain --- Claimed Martyr, we know he isn't pardoner For completeness I will attached the "plan" list as well, since this might be what the mafia reasonably expected people to go by: #1 Comp Vig #2 Bad Santa #3 Prince of Darkness #4 33/33/33 CV, Bad Santa or PoD #5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each) #6 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role #8 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role #9 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role #10 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #11 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #12 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #13 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #14. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other(Alignment Cop, Mason, Martyr, etc.) #15. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #16. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #17 50% role cop, 50% other #18 50% Joat, 50% other #19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other #20 50% tracker, 50% other | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 05:11 Pandain wrote: Cause guys remember, as long as we keep the CV aiming towards our townie aims, mafia has to roleblock him to delay us winning. And then they can't roleblock people like me for instance. Only if we aim correctly. That's the annoying thing. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 05:15 Fishball wrote: Did the possibility of SR being the Vengeful Player just went right out of the window? I love how you drop in the thread to stir the pot every now and then. You never follow it up, never point fingers, you just raise these coy little questions. Unless someone accuses you that is, then we actually get long posts. Right out of the mafia manual, right? Give the town nothing. Fishball and SR are my top suspects. Then there's the roleblocker, who has to be one of BrownBear, JeeJee or DTA. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 05:48 Ace wrote: [/i][/blue][/b]As an aside, I designed and tweaked some of the roles so that it wasn't easy to figure out which roles were really good in all instances ^_^ You certainly got me: I thought tracker was more powerful and failed to realize how awesome Bad Santa can be. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 05:43 Pandain wrote: Oh wow, you know that's my plan. You say as long as we aim right, but all that matters is we find the RB eventually. They will have to roleblock him in order to delay. Anyway, Its not JeeJee. DTA would've claimed being roleblocked(since Jeejee visited him night one.) He's either alignment cop or Joat or doctor. But if he's scum the only reason he would be alignment cop is to delay roles, as mafia already know all the alignments. In addition, he's not doctor since he claimed to have "been able to confirm that citizen is telling the truth and opz is lying". Therefore, he's either a scum alignment cop(doubtful) or Joat, joat being the more likely. But now I'm starting to think he may be a townie Joat/alignment cop, who thought he had been able to confirm what's the truth, but then realized either he had a sanity part, or realized he didn't have enough info. If he's town joat, he investigated darth, as why would he protect/talk to him on first night? In addition, he definitely didn't shoot him. But then he wouldn't have been able to "confirm" the truth. Therefore, he's town alignment cop, or scum alignment cop/joat. One question: does a vanilla player get told if they were visited by the role-blocker? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 05:58 Pandain wrote: Yes. I asked Ace(whether in thread or out, can't remember) Just to close this loop then: DTA, could you confirm whether or not you got visited by the RB on night one? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
##unvote ## vote Southrawarea | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 10:54 SiNiquity wrote: It's actually a great idea. If Chaoser is indeed red (and not even necessarily Bad Santa, could be any role with a made up list) then confirming a bunch of people who were pro-town (bum via very helpful watcher info, myself via fishball whose role was confirmed via zeks, radfield by dying) and slipping a mafia or 2 on the list is the best play possible.. Which is why lynching Chaoser, not SR was the move to make tonight. Confirming the list is way more imperative than this traitor bullshit, but it even has the benefit of removing a top 3 role should SR be telling the truth. But the town had to rush off and majority lynch. -_- gj. Chaoser offered this very plan for today. Perhaps we should have gone with it. At this point in time I am not convinced it's a great idea because of simple arithmetics: we just (tried to) lynch SR. It's mafia time - they can kill one of the elfs, leaving 3 on the "confirmed" list. Then we lynch Chaoser. The mafia get to kill again, possibly leaving 2 "confirmed" people up there. We're trading 3 people for 2 "confirmed" names and no new information on the mafia. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 11:13 Divinek wrote: they could try but if this is our plan surely we'll be trying to protect someone from that list, and there's probably a meth man and maybe other defensive roles in there. If we kill chaoser we basically confirm like 1/4 to 1/3 of the remaining players, id say that's useful it's better than going oh well we lynch a guy so we know there's a traitor in the top 3, now we KNOW these people are 100% on our side so we can believe all they say, all their claims, THIS IS SO USEFUL, and we'll obviously protect our most powerful roles from that list. They can pop vanillas all they want rofl The meth man already claimed and can be avoided. I doubt there are any town medics, JeeJee is not a doctor from his post telling the "docs" to pay attention. One role is probably RB. So there is no way to protect anyone. I still say trade of 3 innocents for 2 confirmed townies, with no new info on the mafia, is a really bad trade. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 11:16 SiNiquity wrote: Ya, maybe we should've gone with it? Yes, let's assume that Chaoser is town and everyone is already confirmed, and then justify not lynching him because "it's not worth it." Great idea. Citizen you're a better player than this, what's with the bad play? Do you want to know what I think? I think we're going in circles trying to use blue roles that were confusing. Add to that fake claims and we're getting nowhere. Let's see: One of SR or a top 3 players lied; Opz lied; Pandain lied multiple times. This is fruitless. What we need to do is stop trying to figure crap out based on claims or investigations and lynching the scummiest person around. Right now that is Fishball, hands down. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 11:17 Ace wrote: If the Pardoner posted in the thread to remove their pardon before the 3 hours was up then sure. It would have been nice to know this + the fact that it can be revoked secretly. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 11:37 Ace wrote: ??? They can't revoke it secretly. I said in the thread. Pardoner like Day Vigi and Vengeful Player can't communicate anything to me via PM. My mistake, you're right! | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 09:46 Pandain wrote: Actually, you know what I decided? I am the pardoner, but then I went back on my decision to pardon Zeks(pmed ace.) Amazed no one called me out on saying i'll martyr radfield, but then he dies. ##Pardon SouthRawrea This is a confirmed lie then. Hi Pandain! | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 11:43 Pandain wrote: Yup n.n. But a harmless lie(no malicious outcome... aka I would be found out in 3 hours). So if i was mafia it would have no p ositive outcome. Therefore, you know it was a joke. Moving on, I'll lay out the warground once we see how south flips. Why lie gratuitously as a townie? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 15:21 chaoser wrote: Hmm interesting...so me rasta or LSB is a traitor... Incorrect. Hesmyr said he picked CV but it was taken. Rastaban could be red, but not traitor. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 21:48 Fishball wrote: No, SR picked CV but said it was taken. No, SR picker traitor. Hesmyr picked CV. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
#1 rastaban--- Comp Vig (role confirmed by Hesmyrr), claims he got RB-ed night 2 #2 Chaoser --- Claimed Bad Santa, list of Elfs: Radfield, Sinliquidy, Citi.zen, Opz, Bumatlarge #3 LSB --- Claimed Prince of Darkness, was watched + visited by one other person night 2 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 Fishball --- Claimed Bullet Bill, checked Opz night one and Sinliquidy night 2 #9 Opz --- Claimed Meth Man after claiming Tracker, ELF, no gun according to Fishball #10 Citizen --- Tracker, ELF, JeeJee to DTA night one, saw Chaoser stand still night 2 #11 BrownBear #12 JeeJee - Can travel, visited DTA night 1, DTA said he did not get role blocked #13 DarthThienAn - Claimed JeeJee is not RB #14 siNiquity --- ELF, no gun according to Fishball #15 Divinek --- Day Vig, killed BM day 1 #16 #17 #18 Bumatlarge --- Watcher, ELF, saw 4 people visit Zeks night 1and one visit LSB night 2 #19 Pandain --- Claimed Pardoner, then Martyr, then pardoner again, then said it was all a joke Plan draft list under the spoiler. + Show Spoiler + #1 Comp Vig #2 Bad Santa #3 Prince of Darkness #4 33/33/33 CV, Bad Santa or PoD #5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each) #6 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role #8 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role #9 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role #10 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #11 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #12 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #13 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #14. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other(Alignment Cop, Mason, Martyr, etc.) #15. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #16. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #17 50% role cop, 50% other #18 50% Joat, 50% other #19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other #20 50% tracker, 50% other | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 21:19 chaoser wrote: Ok thanks, so it's down to me and LSB. I think LSB is the better choice for obvious reasons What are these obvious reasons? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On August 31 2010 11:47 LSB wrote: Wrong house Bum. Lucky I was there too, trying to enjoy my last night properly! That could explain some of your posts though! Bum claims he saw a visitor go to LSB. LSB gives a bizarre answer: "Wrong house Bum. Lucky I was there too". Then he tries to make a little joke re: being high (nervous much?). He never brings up the night visit again! I know if I were a townie I would be a lot more curious: why would anyone visit me on the night I was supposed to be CV-ed, while the CV is getting role-blocked? If it happened to me I'd be thinking "I was framed - Chaoser must be the traitor! The mafia must have two traveling roles! This is who I think you need to look at after my death..." LSB did none of that. In fact, LSB claims on the very next page that he does not think Chaoser is the traitor: On August 31 2010 12:55 LSB wrote: (this also replies your other post) I don't really think you are traitor, however, this is actually good for the mafia as it meddles up who is wrong and who is right, causing confusion for the town The best way to figure this out is to confirm Chaoser. Not by lynching him, that would be bad, but lynching SR. SR flips traitor, chaoser is confirmed, and then we have a nice tight town circle of 5 people, maybe more Think about that: we've already established one of them has to be the traitor, but LSB tells us he does not think it's Chaoser! I think LSB is our traitor, just recruited last night. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Think about that: we've already established one of them has to be the traitor, but LSB tells us he does not think it's Chaoser! | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 01 2010 23:33 Fishball wrote: You do bring up a good point from the Mafia point of view about bringing up the list, but this argument can go in circles (as well as most of the arguments in Mafia games). Hell, people still accuse me, and to be quite frankly, there is nothing I can do to prove myself 100%, there will always be doubt. The way I see it, both of you are likely to end up dead, due to one of the reasons I listed above. Let's says best case scenario, we do nail LSB as the Traitor, but it doesn't clears you at all. The fact that 3 players would be cleared if you flipped Pro-Town, is a HUGE advantage to Town. Thanks for agreeing with me though. How about you check LSB tonight and tell us if he has a gun or not? The role-blocker can't block both you and the CV. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 02 2010 03:36 Fishball wrote: It's fine by me, since I said I'll take suggestions. But why would they Role Block our CV again if we're not hitting LSB? And if we're hitting LSB, and get Role Blocked, and I revealed he has a gun, we still cant kill him until a lynch later, and Chaoser himself is not cleared. If lynching Chaoser flips him green, LSB will have to die regardless, along with 3 confirmed Townies. I really think it isn't necessary to use more resources here. If more people wants me to check LSB, I'll do it. If not, we'll have to figure out our actions fast. So far there are only a few of us that checked in this morning. Quite the slip-up there comrade. In your view the RB would only stop us if we tried to hit LSB, so we should try to hit someone else, whom the RB would let us kill, right? Peach of a plan - let's allow the mafia more night KPs to use as they wish. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 02 2010 05:04 Fishball wrote: Trying hard citizen? That statement was just in reply to your idiotic proposal of checking LSB. I try to keep my manners, but it's obviously you're just single minded. I have no problems whatsoever if we try to CV him again, like what Pandain proposed. You stated you think the RB will not block us if we hit someone other than LSB. I would restate that more broadly as follows: we cannot use the CV hit tonight to kill a red, the mafia will not allow it! Do you still think we should switch our CV target in the hope the hit will go through? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 02 2010 06:40 Fishball wrote: No, I did not say that, nor imply that. That is what YOU think what I said. Simple question, blown out of proportion. Big surprise. I think I know what you're trying to say now. You're basically implying Rastaban will be blocked for sure. That I don't know; I'm an equally good target to be blocked, even yourself as the Tracker to a lesser extent. Hell, we still don't know if we have a JOAT or not. It is also not guaranteed that we WILL hit a red. At the end, they will have to pick. No, I am not saying "he will get role blocked for sure". I am saying that if the CV tells everyone he is targeting mafia, he will be roleblocked. If he announces he will hit a townie, he might not be blocked, since mafia likes dead townies. You haven't answered my question: do you still favor switching the CV's target? Pandain, do you follow any of this? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 02 2010 08:15 Fishball wrote: Fuck, there are more typos. Citizen's logic is making me cringe. Just to add a bit more content, lets assume we do have an original target "A". If town can find a better target "B", then sure " I will favor switching the CV's target". Wrong, in this case that only gives the Mafia more options. If you are wrong about the "better " target it can result in an option to kill a townie. If you are right about the "better" target the Mafia will role block the CV. Fishball and lsb are 90% confirmed reds in my eyes. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Also, I tracked lsb to myself. ##vote LSB | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 02 2010 11:34 LSB wrote: I got a proposal guys! How about you let me live today, and me and Rasta duke it out at night! I'll show you that I'm the CV! Only if you promise to bring that ice-cream by my house again. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
##unvote | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 02 2010 10:54 Pandain wrote: Your confirmed citizen, but thanks to the medic who protected you. What do you think about lynching BB instead because BB might be a good role(such as roleblocker!) I mean they're both mafia, so why not lynch the more possible gain? Should we lynch BrownBear instead? Or Fishball? I mean, LSB ain't going anywhere and the mafia KP is 1 regardless. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
#1 rastaban--- Comp Vig (role confirmed by Hesmyrr), claims he got RB-ed night 2 #2 #3 LSB --- Traitor, recruited night 2 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 Fishball --- Claimed Bullet Bill, checked Opz night one and Sinliquidy night 2 #9 Opz --- Claimed Meth Man after claiming Tracker, ELF, no gun according to Fishball #10 Citizen --- Tracker, ELF, JeeJee to DTA night one, saw Chaoser stand still night 2 #11 BrownBear --- caught lying about what he tried to draft #12 JeeJee - Can travel, visited DTA night 1, DTA said he did not get role blocked #13 DarthThienAn - Claimed JeeJee is not RB #14 siNiquity --- ELF, no gun according to Fishball #15 Divinek --- Day Vig, killed BM day 1 #16 #17 #18 Bumatlarge --- Watcher, ELF, saw 4 people visit Zeks night 1and one visit LSB night 2 #19 Pandain --- Claimed Pardoner, then Martyr, then pardoner again, then said it was all a joke In addition to LSB we have the medic or JOAT who saved me (thanks) and 3 reds in here: Fishball Brownbear JeeJee DarthThienAn Divinek Pandain There is role-blocker and at least another mafia traveling role. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 02 2010 12:54 SiNiquity wrote: Eh, long day. Interesting that no one was roleblocked.. afraid of being tracked maybe? Chaoser: <3 for confirming 4 townies. Sorry we had to sacrifice you to do it As for the lynch, I don't see why we shouldn't lynch LSB. A Mafia lynch is a successful lynch is it not? And even though it doesn't reduce KP, it does reduce the Mafia win scenario (i.e. outnumber town). Is there really any disadvantage to lynching him now rather than later? Also, something to keep in mind: Rasta isn't necessarily cleared. He also wasn't necessarily role-blocked - if he were mafia, he could simply aim at the Mafia's target and claim roleblocked, as the Mafia kill would cover it up. Anyway, I'll check in the morning before I disappear off to work again [freaking hectic week]. Rastaban isn't 100% cleared, you're absolutely right. And yes, we got very lucky with Chaoser and his list. Could have easily ended up with us lynching Opz for lying, then perhaps me for calling him out. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 02 2010 12:36 ~OpZ~ wrote: Citizen....Care to track divinek? I'll protect you again tonight. OK, on to claim number 3 for you, medic it is! I guess this is the last nail in BrownBear's coffin, he previously claimed to try to draft meth-man. Tracking Divinek won't do anything - he has a role so he will show up as static. Only Vanilla mafia can be tracked to the mafia victim unfortunately. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
1. We lynch LSB today. 2. Fishball investigates DTA tomorrow night. 3. We lynch Brownbear tomorrow. 4. Fishball investigates Pandain. 5. We lynch Fishball day after tomorrow. If he flips red - as I fully expect him to - great. If he flips town, great again, we have more confirmed people. What do you all think? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 03 2010 03:12 flamewheel wrote: Thank god for the "All" function. You guys post a lot >< Show-off :-) I really miss that button! | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Citizen I guess I applaud you for taking the inititive, since if you knew you were town than you could assume Chaoser was most likely innocent. Therefore you knew LSB was mafia. Why would you track him? Afraid he was another role? I know your innocent just curious. This is a bit incorrect: I did not know Chaoser was most likely innocent. Even if he said he knew I was town, he could have been covering for Opz, or someone else on that list of 5. Unlikely, but possible. My push to CV LSB for a 2nd night in a row was based on the argument that I did not want to give the mafia extra options. It was also possible the CV would get role-blocked last night; Fishball said he would not investigate one of Chaoser/LSB because it's "idiotic" (after initially asking for suggestions; and yelling at Radfield to "never use that tone with him" for much lesser statements). At any rate. today the town could still have to solve the "who is the traitor" puzzle, possibly wasting another lynch. You were hell-bent on lynching Chaoser "for information", for example. Finally, while I certainly could have tracked someone else, the tracker role is not that great since anyone with any role will not "go" to the mafia kill victim. I thought of trying to find the role-blocker, but as it turns out they seem to have not visited anyone, so that would have been a waste even if I guessed the right person. I also guess most of the mafia will have SOME role, since the "plan" guaranteed them roles like the Godfather/Pardoner/etc. - once again making tracking ineffective even if I have the right person. So I made the boring choice and checked LSB to be 100% certain the traitor puzzle was solved last night one way or another. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 03 2010 04:50 Pandain wrote: Okay does everyone agree with this? Fishball checks me Tracker checks brownbear Rasta shoots CV Medics protect confirmed townies. I do as well. Everyone agree? Watcher watches me(in case I get roleblocked/fishball isn't BB and theres a huge conspiracy LOL. Just defense for me. No: Telling BrownBear that he will be tracked is a bad idea. If he has any role and "stays home" we get nothing but confusion. I believe that if he is red he has a role, for reasons I already stated. Given the nature of my role I am not going to announce who I am tracking, to keep people honest. The same could be true for the watcher I guess. Also, I'd rather ask Rastaban to shoot BrownBear than himself (is that allowed) next night cycle. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 03 2010 05:14 Pandain wrote: See, but I think announcing who you're going to track will help us anyway, because they will not use their roles. WE are going to lynch both of them anyway, as I at least suspect both of them heavily, and in addition they are part of the unconfirmed townies. For example, last game they didn't roleblock anyone, probably because they were afraid of getting tracked. If darth is roleblocker, we kill him. If Brownbear is, he can't use his role. Either way, the roleblocker will either be forced to not use his power or he will be dead. Do you see my point? I must confess I do not see your point. How would we know DTA is the RB if I tracked BrownBear? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 03 2010 05:23 Pandain wrote: Because he will be killed. And if brownbear is roleblocker you will have tracked him to Rastaban. and if rasta gets blocked then we know darth is the roleblocker. This is what you proposed: On September 03 2010 04:50 Pandain wrote: Okay does everyone agree with this? Fishball checks me Tracker checks brownbear Rasta shoots CV Medics protect confirmed townies. I do as well. Everyone agree? Watcher watches me(in case I get roleblocked/fishball isn't BB and theres a huge conspiracy LOL. Just defense for me. Who will shoot DTA? And why would we shoot him over a confirmed liar who hasn't done anything the entire game? | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 03 2010 06:24 BrownBear wrote: Are you special or something? I never lied. Very special. Thanks for be ing more active. Even if it's still not useful. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Agreed. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 03 2010 20:59 bumatlarge wrote: Later on ofc, after he checks more people. We arent killing him now... I suggest check darth fishball, and then we kill BB Exactly, we have a decent suspect in BrownBear right now. When we get to Fishball we'll either catch a red or get more confirmed investigations. Am curious to hear more from JeeJee, and hear about the red Rastaban found, remembering this excellent point: On September 02 2010 12:54 SiNiquity wrote: Eh, long day. Interesting that no one was roleblocked.. afraid of being tracked maybe? Chaoser: <3 for confirming 4 townies. Sorry we had to sacrifice you to do it As for the lynch, I don't see why we shouldn't lynch LSB. A Mafia lynch is a successful lynch is it not? And even though it doesn't reduce KP, it does reduce the Mafia win scenario (i.e. outnumber town). Is there really any disadvantage to lynching him now rather than later? Also, something to keep in mind: Rasta isn't necessarily cleared. He also wasn't necessarily role-blocked - if he were mafia, he could simply aim at the Mafia's target and claim roleblocked, as the Mafia kill would cover it up. Anyway, I'll check in the morning before I disappear off to work again [freaking hectic week]. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Do you want to at least seem credible as a pro-town player? Actively try to find reds, don't just say "uhh... I'm not red, you are wrong, you'll see when I die; also, whaaaaa". LSB did quite well this game because he recovered from some early iffy play (which may have been deliberate if he was trying to be found) and started participating pretty actively in the debates, doing analysis of other people. He wasn't afraid to put himself out there. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Unconfirmed: Pandain(unless fishball succesfully checked me), Divinek, Brownbear(will be lynched today), Rastaban, Fishball. An unconfirmed person cannot "confirm" you at this time. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 04 2010 11:44 SiNiquity wrote: DTA was copycat huh (pretty sure there was only 1 mason this game, but with BM dying first CC would get his role)? Hmm down to 9 with 2 Mafia left... at this point, is it advantageous to keep the CV? Suppose, worst case scenario, we persistently hit town (I don't foresee this given the large number of confirmed players, but again worst case here): With CV
Without CV
The tradeoff here is Mafia is guaranteed one more hit which will of course hit town (whereas CV has a chance to hit Mafia). However, it also gives one additional use of the Bullet Bill and Tracker, while also removing a potentially dangerous role should the CV turn out to be Mafia. This is of course presuming Fishball is town (tracker seems to be pretty handicapped with the roles taking priority). The fact that JeeJee was killed, confirming Fishball's claim that he was not Mafia, sadly does nothing to confirm Fish himself. Although I'm admittedly surprised Mafia would go after JeeJee rather than someone on Chaoser's list. Hmm... Remember, at some point if we have a few people checked by Fishball, we can just lynch him to "confirm" them. Killing these people off makes that option less attractive. Batman, Pacman same shit different mask :-) | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 05 2010 15:54 bumatlarge wrote: Wah, why not track Divine who can no longer visit? Oh well. Im thinking pandain and divine as the last two scum after skimming the thread again. Or Fishball and rasta, because RB might not exist? Too many scenarios... Yeah that seems to good to mess up, I mean 1 mafia for extra KP is huge. The most logical kill would then be divine. If hes red, then we can probably label rasta as town, and town basically wins. But if div is town, then we are at the same stage we are now. Im betting citizen gets killed and fishball gets blocked, so stalling via killing rasta is kinda pointless if its only for blues to get more checks. Kill divine and if he doesnt pop red, have rasta kill BB. ##vote divinek Divinek will always show up as not moving since he has a role. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 06 2010 00:13 Pandain wrote: Also, we don't outnumber them sadly. Its 5 unconfirmed to 4 confirmed, your counting rastaban as confirmed. Argh... if only Citizen had tracked Brownbear we would've had this game in the bag(as we could've told whether he's roleblocker or not.) WHY CITIZEN WHY!!! In case you haven't noticed, nobody claimed to be role-blocked. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 05 2010 23:38 ~OpZ~ wrote: Rastaban, OpZ, Citizen, Bumatlarge, SiNiquity. Pandain, BrownBear, Fishball, Divinek. Wait...we outnumber...awesome. Nevermind. Games pretty in the bag even if we fuck up. 5 confirmed townies on top, 2 hidden townies on bot. I'm down with lynching BrownBear, killing divinek tonight. Only possible choices for mafia are pandain, brownbear, fishball, and divinek. And if Pandain is actually martyr...well, protect citizen Pandain, and you will be proven town. =D Just assuming Rasta is town because he did POP DTA, and Roleblocking fishball....well...FoS Pandain. Coulda RB'd the person POPPING your mafia brother, but instead RB Fishball? =/ Anyway...I still wanna hear citizen...And Fishball out of town? -_____- Fine, brownbear and paindain are decent targets as well + I don't have the time to argue today. Unvote ##vote BrownBear Just remember that Fishball is the reddest person here based on his posting: never useful, always wishy-washy, except when accused of anything, when he gets very active and argumentative, cock-sure down to the "never take that tone with me" pearl. Interesting to remember as well that the mafia didn't kill/RB Fishball - the most important investigative role in the game - night 3, when he checked JeeJee (nobody got RB-ed that night?). Then JeeJee got killed and FB claims to be RB-ed night 4. Tragic, it means we still have zero info out of him. However, he can let others argue that it "makes sense" to keep him alive so he can pretend to investigate people one more night. That suits him fine since it means we're taking a 1/4 shot with today's lynch. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
##vote Rastaban | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
LSB did well even with some early pressure on him, and it was an interesting call on his part to pick traitor high up in the draft - it kept the town busy for a long time. Radfield - as always impressive early game hard work. Sin, great job finishing this up. Ace, thanks for hosting & patiently answering the many-many questions. I think the band santa turned out a bit better in this game than it would in general. Had there been any red on Chaoser's list Opz may well have gotten lynched for lying about being the tracker. It may be a role that adds a bit too much variance, not sure if it can be handled by changing the number of people on the list or not. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
Bad santa aside, I think this game was balanced OK. The mafia did effectively have another player in the traitor + there were some good pro-mafia roles that could have given the mafia extra KP but were not picked (still find it odd there wasn't a GF, even with the buff it got). The SK death/killing a red was twice lucky for town. Chaoser's list was another huge bit of luck: I would have pushed really hard to lynch Opz in it's absence; as it turned out, both me and Opz were on it AND there were also no other red on it AND Radfield had just been killed that night. I actually liked the hit on JeeJee. The scum knew there was a medic/jack out there and they had it narrowed down to one of a few players. I don't think this is why they killed him, but I could be wrong. The mafia killed JeeJee to make lynching Fishball less attractive. This is the same reason FB claimed he was roleblocked the following night and went from 90% to 99% red in my eyes. I sort of checked out the past few days, glad Sin was there to finish this strong! | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
The more I think about it, the more damaging the CV seems to the town. The mafia should pretty much always pick a role-blocker, especially if it is "reserved" for them. An active mafia can generally push for the night 2 CV target to be a townie. Then they can push for another townie night 3, but then RB the CV! Imagine the confusion: was the target red and saved by his mafia buddies? Is the CV red? Who is the RB? This would take forever to sort out... In general the RB could prevent people from "proving" their role, important in this role-heavy set-up since it can spread confusion and side-tracking conversations forever. The GF in this case not bad either, and it offered an extra KP. So again, my feeling is not that the mafia was underpowered, I thought the new roles and the traitor did what they were supposed to. They did get very unlucky and a bit disorganized early on, then unlucky again mid-game with the whole bad santa thing. Edit: I also think a 2x lynch every day would in fact be bad for town since it does not generate much more information than a regular lynch. It's not the flips that matter, it's the conversations around them, and I don't think 2x lynches give you much more conversation. On top of that, with a RB, the CV is nothing like a 2x lynch since the mafia basically has an anonymous pardoner. | ||
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On September 08 2010 12:03 Ace wrote: The assumption about double lynches is wrong though. Even if the town has 2KP to 1 Mafia KP their hits are more informed. Mafia is guaranteed to not hit Scum if they feel like it. Also double lynching is usually bad imo. Only worth it if there is going to be a definite Mafia death or there is a counter-claim that can be resolved efficiently by lynching both players. Otherwise a double lynch is terrible. You're guaranteed to hit at least 1 town player and in most cases TWO. Add in the fact that most double lynches are based off of laziness and finger pointing instead of solid analysis and they are bad. Incognito I'll reply to your post later ^_^ Yeah - as I said in the edit to my previous post. | ||
| ||