|
Accuse me will you? Foul beasts, pray tell your reasons! OPZ, thou prince of slinking, slinketh away from mine optimism. Radfield, let your corrpted politician tongue cast its devilry elsewhere. Divine K, irony of hypocrisy wrappeth in sludge, I shall not lynch thee for thy towniness, but for THY Scuminess. Shed your guilt on me for I will bear this burden for my counrty. I mean town. Poor Hesmyrr, deeds forgotten, but must die for sins of another. Hope for his actions being tainted is my desire, justyfying our bloodthirst.
Track mine actions at thy expense, for i will show no mercy. What regret is; nary of my diction.Composure friends, composure!
|
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power.
|
On August 26 2010 22:35 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 21:22 zeks wrote:
I was never sold on the fact that PoD is a pure anti-town role.
I mean sure its two night phases we skip a lynch (most of the time we lynch one of our own) and mafia gets 2 kills - but doesn't it also give our town roles more chances to act? (ie. cops get double the checks)
We'd also have more information going into the next day to make a more educated lynch. It's just essentially a no lynch don't see how it can give scum a big advantage which is what people have been suggesting.
Having said that I am against a no lynch tonight just cause I think its imminent to nab the traitor Well it is a no lynch and 48 hours of discussion lost. At least in a no lynch you learn what wanted the no lynch and get some voting patterns. I don't see how you could not realize that it is incredibly bad. Here is what we have barring medics and extra NKs: 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 3 (lynch, SK, Mafia) 15 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 11 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 7 Thats right we have 3 lynches and 2 comp vig kills to nab mafia or SK before we run out of time. That means we have to nab mafia in one of those 5 hits (OR the SKs) or we can't win the vote. Now I agree it is likely we will but, to pretend like a no lynch or Prince of Darkness isn't a pure mafia role is terrible miscalculation. 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 6 (lynch, SK, Mafia, SK, Mafia, Me) 12 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 8 See while it seems funny that the day vig killed BM because he tends to spam post or you might find him annoying it, this is why Radfield I believe pushed so hard for town not to take KP roles. That 1 extra KP puts us at instant lose if no mafia die by second lynch if PoD activates. Please stop trying to find ways to use the PoD, its ONLY use is to help mafia. if it activates, we kill them end of story. @Opz, this is also why role cop was considered so good. If town took 0 KP roles then when RC found one we could lynch them, it also made BB able to lynch when he found a gun since it was mafia. Since we now have the day vig claiing to be town, and possibly others this method isn't as sure fire, because BB will find he has a gun just like he finds mafia have a gun. RC sees him with a KP role, that we left to go to mafia.
If your wondering about my post, it is to say that I arrived at roughly the same conclusion that you did
I really wan't to hear Paldian. Please explain yourself and your motives
|
Yeah, Paldian , whoever you are, speak up!
|
Day 1 Votes
With 18 alive it is 10 to lynch!
Hesmyrr(6)
rastaban
southRawrea
LSB
bumatlarge
citi.zen
JeeJee
SouthRawrea(1)
Hesmyrr
Radfield(1)
~Opz~
Not voting so far (10)
Pandain
Divinek
BrownBear
DarthThienAn
Radfield
Fishball
SiNiquity
Subversion
chaoser
zeks
Day 1 ends @ 10:00PM ET/11:00KST on Thursday August 26th/27th(KST) which is ~8 hours, 40 minutes from now.
|
On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote:
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power.
In the penalty mafia you argued with Ace and constantly tried to find reds. In this game, on the other hand, you've had many posts like this one: lots of words to "roughly reach the same conclusion" as the rest of us.
Let me show you what I mean.
First, posts that add no content:
On August 21 2010 08:58 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2010 08:28 Bill Murray wrote:
see, this is where radfield is being unhelpful. Just claim some numbers, man.
you are, too, citi.zen, for joking. You know what I mean. I know Radfield is helping through policy discussion and game theory. Durr.
chaoser:4
Pandain:6
Bill: 7
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
you see how this helps, now? I was going to pick 6. I had sent in [6] [4]. I knew to change when I saw pandain say that. Mafia will be picking single digit numbers, honestly. The highest they might pick is around 10-12, but I seriously doubt that. ( i think they did that last game, though, but it was honestly dumb to do that)
I won last game by picking like [17]. We didn't claim what we were picking, so there were a lot of doubleups on numbers. If the town coordinates on the numbers they're picking, the mafia will be forced to claim and follow what they claimed, or lie to us.
rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Pandain:6 Bill: 7 Hesmyrr/zeks: 8 I will be picking 5,1
On August 21 2010 10:19 LSB wrote:
Number Claims (Please tell me if you change)
JeeJee: 1
DTA: 2
rastaban: 3
chaoser:4
LSB: 5
Bill: 6
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
Pandain: 12
Then, posts that are wrong, add no content, and include ideas you never return to (again, surprising given your style last game):
On August 22 2010 03:59 LSB wrote:If you guys want a plan, we should assign people roles. The 20 least detrimental to town roles. Although people will get scum roles, they can still utilize them for town. + Show Spoiler +Floridian
Pardoner
Bad Santa
Vengeful Player
Day Vig
Role Cop
Tracker
Joat
Bullet Bill
Alignment Cop
Bulletproof
Veteran
Meth Man
Doctor
Doctor
Mason
Copy Cat
Watcher
Comp Vig
Martyr
Just randomly assign people to a role. Then, role cops / watchers have their job a lot easier. Also, if a person picks a role, and discovers he's vanilla, its another way to detect something fishy.
Had me scratch me head, and that was before you added this bit a minute later:
On August 22 2010 04:00 LSB wrote:
If you are concerned about blue sniping, I can PM everyone their roles. That way no mafia will know.
The day vigi can kill me day 1 to verify that I am town.
Right, we should let you (unconfirmed player) PM everyone their roles, in a game where there are no PMs. Pandain replies with this weak message:
On August 22 2010 04:03 Pandain wrote:
No, Radfield's plan is already incrediably solid and allows more information and scum hunting abilities. And already no one really has to be concerned about blue sniping.
LSB immediately backs down, even though Pandain hardly said anything:
On August 22 2010 04:06 LSB wrote:
Oh whoops, first readthrough I didn't get it. I agree with Radfield's plan.
But why is Day Vig a mafia role?
After today's lynch you will be my best target. As an added bonus, as you yourself say, your role will not help the town at any rate.
|
On August 27 2010 02:13 Fishball wrote:
Yeah, Paldian , whoever you are, speak up!
*Whisks off his mask.*
Curses! How did you konw I was really Paldain the whole time?
But I'm confused by your statement LSB. What do I have to explain and why would I have motives(unless you're accusing me of mafia, in which case I wouldn't tell you  )
|
On August 27 2010 02:20 citi.zen wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote:
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power. In the penalty mafia you argued with Ace and constantly tried to find reds. In this game, on the other hand, you've had many posts like this one: lots of words to "roughly reach the same conclusion" as the rest of us. Let me show you what I mean. First, posts that add no content: Show nested quote +On August 21 2010 08:58 LSB wrote:On August 21 2010 08:28 Bill Murray wrote:
see, this is where radfield is being unhelpful. Just claim some numbers, man.
you are, too, citi.zen, for joking. You know what I mean. I know Radfield is helping through policy discussion and game theory. Durr.
chaoser:4
Pandain:6
Bill: 7
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
you see how this helps, now? I was going to pick 6. I had sent in [6] [4]. I knew to change when I saw pandain say that. Mafia will be picking single digit numbers, honestly. The highest they might pick is around 10-12, but I seriously doubt that. ( i think they did that last game, though, but it was honestly dumb to do that)
I won last game by picking like [17]. We didn't claim what we were picking, so there were a lot of doubleups on numbers. If the town coordinates on the numbers they're picking, the mafia will be forced to claim and follow what they claimed, or lie to us.
rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Pandain:6 Bill: 7 Hesmyrr/zeks: 8 I will be picking 5,1 Show nested quote +On August 21 2010 10:19 LSB wrote:
Number Claims (Please tell me if you change)
JeeJee: 1
DTA: 2
rastaban: 3
chaoser:4
LSB: 5
Bill: 6
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
Pandain: 12 Then, posts that are wrong, add no content, and include ideas you never return to (again, surprising given your style last game): Show nested quote +On August 22 2010 03:59 LSB wrote:If you guys want a plan, we should assign people roles. The 20 least detrimental to town roles. Although people will get scum roles, they can still utilize them for town. + Show Spoiler +Floridian
Pardoner
Bad Santa
Vengeful Player
Day Vig
Role Cop
Tracker
Joat
Bullet Bill
Alignment Cop
Bulletproof
Veteran
Meth Man
Doctor
Doctor
Mason
Copy Cat
Watcher
Comp Vig
Martyr
Just randomly assign people to a role. Then, role cops / watchers have their job a lot easier. Also, if a person picks a role, and discovers he's vanilla, its another way to detect something fishy. Had me scratch me head, and that was before you added this bit a minute later: Show nested quote +On August 22 2010 04:00 LSB wrote:
If you are concerned about blue sniping, I can PM everyone their roles. That way no mafia will know.
The day vigi can kill me day 1 to verify that I am town. Right, we should let you (unconfirmed player) PM everyone their roles, in a game where there are no PMs. Pandain replies with this weak message: Show nested quote +On August 22 2010 04:03 Pandain wrote:
No, Radfield's plan is already incrediably solid and allows more information and scum hunting abilities. And already no one really has to be concerned about blue sniping. LSB immediately backs down, even though Pandain hardly said anything: Show nested quote +On August 22 2010 04:06 LSB wrote:
Oh whoops, first readthrough I didn't get it. I agree with Radfield's plan.
But why is Day Vig a mafia role? After today's lynch you will be my best target. As an added bonus, as you yourself say, your role will not help the town at any rate.
You paint a picture of me that is completly incorrect and then you claim that I am not following it and therefore call me out?
I am not recklass. I do not argue with anyone untill I am certain that they are mafia. I might have made a mistake about Ace, but your preformance was desicive, in a bad way.
Look back at my posts in the games. I am analytic, I discuss plans, and I look at incentives.
Please don't spread wrong information
|
Oh I didnt bother to read the bottom of your post Citi.zen
But its halarious why you think I 'backed down'. The reason why I backed down is that there are No PMs .
|
On August 27 2010 02:25 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:13 Fishball wrote:
Yeah, Paldian , whoever you are, speak up! *Whisks off his mask.* Curses! How did you konw I was really Paldain the whole time? But I'm confused by your statement LSB. What do I have to explain and why would I have motives(unless you're accusing me of mafia, in which case I wouldn't tell you )
I just want to see where you stand. I believe if you're town, you'd have a logical reason.
|
On August 27 2010 02:29 LSB wrote:
Oh I didnt bother to read the bottom of your post Citi.zen
But its halarious why you think I 'backed down'. The reason why I backed down is that there are No PMs .
Perhaps you also didn't read your own "explanatory" post, where you say you just hadn't read Radfield's plan.
|
On August 27 2010 02:32 citi.zen wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:29 LSB wrote:
Oh I didnt bother to read the bottom of your post Citi.zen
But its halarious why you think I 'backed down'. The reason why I backed down is that there are No PMs . Perhaps you also didn't read your own "explanatory" post, where you say you just hadn't read Radfield's plan.
I know what I am talking about.
That post was to explain that I had not found a flaw in his plan
The fact that there is no pms is why i decided not to expand on my idea
Just wondering. So why did you not include that post in your "analysis" of me? Is it because its easier to twist my words to fit your own thoughts?
Why did you not include any of my real Day 1 posts, and instead settle on my posts to help keep track of things? The person you portray does not exist
|
On August 27 2010 02:31 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:25 Pandain wrote:On August 27 2010 02:13 Fishball wrote:
Yeah, Paldian , whoever you are, speak up! *Whisks off his mask.* Curses! How did you konw I was really Paldain the whole time? But I'm confused by your statement LSB. What do I have to explain and why would I have motives(unless you're accusing me of mafia, in which case I wouldn't tell you ) I just want to see where you stand. I believe if you're town, you'd have a logical reason.
Where I stand on what?
|
On August 27 2010 02:38 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:31 LSB wrote:On August 27 2010 02:25 Pandain wrote:On August 27 2010 02:13 Fishball wrote:
Yeah, Paldian , whoever you are, speak up! *Whisks off his mask.* Curses! How did you konw I was really Paldain the whole time? But I'm confused by your statement LSB. What do I have to explain and why would I have motives(unless you're accusing me of mafia, in which case I wouldn't tell you ) I just want to see where you stand. I believe if you're town, you'd have a logical reason. Where I stand on what?
Use of my power
|
On August 27 2010 02:26 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:20 citi.zen wrote:On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote:
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power. In the penalty mafia you argued with Ace and constantly tried to find reds. In this game, on the other hand, you've had many posts like this one: lots of words to "roughly reach the same conclusion" as the rest of us. Let me show you what I mean. First, posts that add no content: On August 21 2010 08:58 LSB wrote:On August 21 2010 08:28 Bill Murray wrote:
see, this is where radfield is being unhelpful. Just claim some numbers, man.
you are, too, citi.zen, for joking. You know what I mean. I know Radfield is helping through policy discussion and game theory. Durr.
chaoser:4
Pandain:6
Bill: 7
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
you see how this helps, now? I was going to pick 6. I had sent in [6] [4]. I knew to change when I saw pandain say that. Mafia will be picking single digit numbers, honestly. The highest they might pick is around 10-12, but I seriously doubt that. ( i think they did that last game, though, but it was honestly dumb to do that)
I won last game by picking like [17]. We didn't claim what we were picking, so there were a lot of doubleups on numbers. If the town coordinates on the numbers they're picking, the mafia will be forced to claim and follow what they claimed, or lie to us.
rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Pandain:6 Bill: 7 Hesmyrr/zeks: 8 I will be picking 5,1 On August 21 2010 10:19 LSB wrote:
Number Claims (Please tell me if you change)
JeeJee: 1
DTA: 2
rastaban: 3
chaoser:4
LSB: 5
Bill: 6
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
Pandain: 12 Then, posts that are wrong, add no content, and include ideas you never return to (again, surprising given your style last game): On August 22 2010 03:59 LSB wrote:If you guys want a plan, we should assign people roles. The 20 least detrimental to town roles. Although people will get scum roles, they can still utilize them for town. + Show Spoiler +Floridian
Pardoner
Bad Santa
Vengeful Player
Day Vig
Role Cop
Tracker
Joat
Bullet Bill
Alignment Cop
Bulletproof
Veteran
Meth Man
Doctor
Doctor
Mason
Copy Cat
Watcher
Comp Vig
Martyr
Just randomly assign people to a role. Then, role cops / watchers have their job a lot easier. Also, if a person picks a role, and discovers he's vanilla, its another way to detect something fishy. Had me scratch me head, and that was before you added this bit a minute later: On August 22 2010 04:00 LSB wrote:
If you are concerned about blue sniping, I can PM everyone their roles. That way no mafia will know.
The day vigi can kill me day 1 to verify that I am town. Right, we should let you (unconfirmed player) PM everyone their roles, in a game where there are no PMs. Pandain replies with this weak message: On August 22 2010 04:03 Pandain wrote:
No, Radfield's plan is already incrediably solid and allows more information and scum hunting abilities. And already no one really has to be concerned about blue sniping. LSB immediately backs down, even though Pandain hardly said anything: On August 22 2010 04:06 LSB wrote:
Oh whoops, first readthrough I didn't get it. I agree with Radfield's plan.
But why is Day Vig a mafia role? After today's lynch you will be my best target. As an added bonus, as you yourself say, your role will not help the town at any rate. You paint a picture of me that is completly incorrect and then you claim that I am not following it and therefore call me out? I am not recklass. I do not argue with anyone untill I am certain that they are mafia. I might have made a mistake about Ace, but your preformance was desicive, in a bad way. Look back at my posts in the games. I am analytic, I discuss plans, and I look at incentives. Please don't spread wrong information
You misunderstand: I am NOT criticizing your play last game. On the contrary, I agree entirely with your description of your style that game - analytic, discussing plans, looking at incentives.
What bothers me is your are NOT doing any of that this time around. You are merely trying to blend in, making long posts that offer no new information and proposing "plans" that do nothing.
|
On August 27 2010 02:36 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:32 citi.zen wrote:On August 27 2010 02:29 LSB wrote:
Oh I didnt bother to read the bottom of your post Citi.zen
But its halarious why you think I 'backed down'. The reason why I backed down is that there are No PMs . Perhaps you also didn't read your own "explanatory" post, where you say you just hadn't read Radfield's plan. I know what I am talking about. That post was to explain that I had not found a flaw in his plan The fact that there is no pms is why i decided not to expand on my idea Just wondering. So why did you not include that post in your "analysis" of me? Is it because its easier to twist my words to fit your own thoughts? Why did you not include any of my real Day 1 posts, and instead settle on my posts to help keep track of things? The person you portray does not exist
You mean real posts like this one:
On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote:
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power.
Even you know that was weak, so you followed it up with this:
On August 27 2010 01:55 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 22:35 rastaban wrote:On August 26 2010 21:22 zeks wrote:
I was never sold on the fact that PoD is a pure anti-town role.
I mean sure its two night phases we skip a lynch (most of the time we lynch one of our own) and mafia gets 2 kills - but doesn't it also give our town roles more chances to act? (ie. cops get double the checks)
We'd also have more information going into the next day to make a more educated lynch. It's just essentially a no lynch don't see how it can give scum a big advantage which is what people have been suggesting.
Having said that I am against a no lynch tonight just cause I think its imminent to nab the traitor Well it is a no lynch and 48 hours of discussion lost. At least in a no lynch you learn what wanted the no lynch and get some voting patterns. I don't see how you could not realize that it is incredibly bad. Here is what we have barring medics and extra NKs: 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 3 (lynch, SK, Mafia) 15 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 11 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 7 Thats right we have 3 lynches and 2 comp vig kills to nab mafia or SK before we run out of time. That means we have to nab mafia in one of those 5 hits (OR the SKs) or we can't win the vote. Now I agree it is likely we will but, to pretend like a no lynch or Prince of Darkness isn't a pure mafia role is terrible miscalculation. 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 6 (lynch, SK, Mafia, SK, Mafia, Me) 12 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 8 See while it seems funny that the day vig killed BM because he tends to spam post or you might find him annoying it, this is why Radfield I believe pushed so hard for town not to take KP roles. That 1 extra KP puts us at instant lose if no mafia die by second lynch if PoD activates. Please stop trying to find ways to use the PoD, its ONLY use is to help mafia. if it activates, we kill them end of story. @Opz, this is also why role cop was considered so good. If town took 0 KP roles then when RC found one we could lynch them, it also made BB able to lynch when he found a gun since it was mafia. Since we now have the day vig claiing to be town, and possibly others this method isn't as sure fire, because BB will find he has a gun just like he finds mafia have a gun. RC sees him with a KP role, that we left to go to mafia. If your wondering about my post, it is to say that I arrived at roughly the same conclusion that you did I really wan't to hear Paldian. Please explain yourself and your motives
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On August 27 2010 02:42 citi.zen wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:26 LSB wrote:On August 27 2010 02:20 citi.zen wrote:On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote:
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power. In the penalty mafia you argued with Ace and constantly tried to find reds. In this game, on the other hand, you've had many posts like this one: lots of words to "roughly reach the same conclusion" as the rest of us. Let me show you what I mean. First, posts that add no content: On August 21 2010 08:58 LSB wrote:On August 21 2010 08:28 Bill Murray wrote:
see, this is where radfield is being unhelpful. Just claim some numbers, man.
you are, too, citi.zen, for joking. You know what I mean. I know Radfield is helping through policy discussion and game theory. Durr.
chaoser:4
Pandain:6
Bill: 7
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
you see how this helps, now? I was going to pick 6. I had sent in [6] [4]. I knew to change when I saw pandain say that. Mafia will be picking single digit numbers, honestly. The highest they might pick is around 10-12, but I seriously doubt that. ( i think they did that last game, though, but it was honestly dumb to do that)
I won last game by picking like [17]. We didn't claim what we were picking, so there were a lot of doubleups on numbers. If the town coordinates on the numbers they're picking, the mafia will be forced to claim and follow what they claimed, or lie to us.
rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Pandain:6 Bill: 7 Hesmyrr/zeks: 8 I will be picking 5,1 On August 21 2010 10:19 LSB wrote:
Number Claims (Please tell me if you change)
JeeJee: 1
DTA: 2
rastaban: 3
chaoser:4
LSB: 5
Bill: 6
Hesmyrr/zeks: 8
Pandain: 12 Then, posts that are wrong, add no content, and include ideas you never return to (again, surprising given your style last game): On August 22 2010 03:59 LSB wrote:If you guys want a plan, we should assign people roles. The 20 least detrimental to town roles. Although people will get scum roles, they can still utilize them for town. + Show Spoiler +Floridian
Pardoner
Bad Santa
Vengeful Player
Day Vig
Role Cop
Tracker
Joat
Bullet Bill
Alignment Cop
Bulletproof
Veteran
Meth Man
Doctor
Doctor
Mason
Copy Cat
Watcher
Comp Vig
Martyr
Just randomly assign people to a role. Then, role cops / watchers have their job a lot easier. Also, if a person picks a role, and discovers he's vanilla, its another way to detect something fishy. Had me scratch me head, and that was before you added this bit a minute later: On August 22 2010 04:00 LSB wrote:
If you are concerned about blue sniping, I can PM everyone their roles. That way no mafia will know.
The day vigi can kill me day 1 to verify that I am town. Right, we should let you (unconfirmed player) PM everyone their roles, in a game where there are no PMs. Pandain replies with this weak message: On August 22 2010 04:03 Pandain wrote:
No, Radfield's plan is already incrediably solid and allows more information and scum hunting abilities. And already no one really has to be concerned about blue sniping. LSB immediately backs down, even though Pandain hardly said anything: On August 22 2010 04:06 LSB wrote:
Oh whoops, first readthrough I didn't get it. I agree with Radfield's plan.
But why is Day Vig a mafia role? After today's lynch you will be my best target. As an added bonus, as you yourself say, your role will not help the town at any rate. You paint a picture of me that is completly incorrect and then you claim that I am not following it and therefore call me out? I am not recklass. I do not argue with anyone untill I am certain that they are mafia. I might have made a mistake about Ace, but your preformance was desicive, in a bad way. Look back at my posts in the games. I am analytic, I discuss plans, and I look at incentives. Please don't spread wrong information You misunderstand: I am NOT criticizing your play last game. On the contrary, I agree entirely with your description of your style that game - analytic, discussing plans, looking at incentives. What bothers me is your are NOT doing any of that this time around. You are merely trying to blend in, making long posts that offer no new information and proposing "plans" that do nothing.
Last game you called my style scummy o.o
If you find my style this game scummy, its no suprise, cause i played the same
The only reason why I am not attacking people is that I have not made any informed decisions. Im not going to quote random posts and accuse someone randomly. For example, im not accusing you, because I know from last game you play very scummyly
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On August 27 2010 02:45 citi.zen wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:36 LSB wrote:On August 27 2010 02:32 citi.zen wrote:On August 27 2010 02:29 LSB wrote:
Oh I didnt bother to read the bottom of your post Citi.zen
But its halarious why you think I 'backed down'. The reason why I backed down is that there are No PMs . Perhaps you also didn't read your own "explanatory" post, where you say you just hadn't read Radfield's plan. I know what I am talking about. That post was to explain that I had not found a flaw in his plan The fact that there is no pms is why i decided not to expand on my idea Just wondering. So why did you not include that post in your "analysis" of me? Is it because its easier to twist my words to fit your own thoughts? Why did you not include any of my real Day 1 posts, and instead settle on my posts to help keep track of things? The person you portray does not exist You mean real posts like this one: Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 01:43 LSB wrote:
I have done extensive analysis on my role. PoD. And I concluded it
is disastrous for me to even consider using it early. If ever
I did this analysis during the drafting phase of PyP. I did some
(major) editing to account for the DayVig
Standard Scenario
Assumptions
SK: 1. Always kills a town
Mafia: 2. Always kills a town
CompVig: 1. Kills town on even nights, kills mafia on odd nights. Does
not die (Mafia doesn’t want to kill the CompVig, unless he starts
hitting reds 100%)
Lynching: We lynch a town on our first two tries, and then we lynch
mafia the rest of the time
All the other KP stopping/Adding KP just ‘balances out’.
Not using my power (Expected Outcome)
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Day 3: 6/4/1
Night 3: 6/3/1
Day 4: 4/2/1
Night 4: 4/1/1
Day 5: 1/1/1
Total Days: 4
Using My power 1st night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Night 2: 10/4/1
Day 3: 7/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 3/3/1
Worse Odds
Total Days: 3
Using My power 2nd night
Day 1: 13/4/1
Night 1: 12/4/1
Day 2: 10/4/1
Night 2: 9/4/1
Night 3: 6/4/1
Day 4: 4/3/1
Night 4: 4/2/1
Day 5: 2/2/1
Total Days: 3
Generally: Using my power ends the game one day earlier. Even though
we do get role checks, lynching is a major town power that allows us
to kill mafia. The more lynches the better
Conclusion:
Even though this analysis is in a vacuum with no other roles. It
isvery dangerous, and benefits the mafia greatly. I have to
watch out for people wanting to use my power. Even you know that was weak, so you followed it up with this: Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 01:55 LSB wrote:On August 26 2010 22:35 rastaban wrote:On August 26 2010 21:22 zeks wrote:
I was never sold on the fact that PoD is a pure anti-town role.
I mean sure its two night phases we skip a lynch (most of the time we lynch one of our own) and mafia gets 2 kills - but doesn't it also give our town roles more chances to act? (ie. cops get double the checks)
We'd also have more information going into the next day to make a more educated lynch. It's just essentially a no lynch don't see how it can give scum a big advantage which is what people have been suggesting.
Having said that I am against a no lynch tonight just cause I think its imminent to nab the traitor Well it is a no lynch and 48 hours of discussion lost. At least in a no lynch you learn what wanted the no lynch and get some voting patterns. I don't see how you could not realize that it is incredibly bad. Here is what we have barring medics and extra NKs: 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 3 (lynch, SK, Mafia) 15 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 11 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 7 Thats right we have 3 lynches and 2 comp vig kills to nab mafia or SK before we run out of time. That means we have to nab mafia in one of those 5 hits (OR the SKs) or we can't win the vote. Now I agree it is likely we will but, to pretend like a no lynch or Prince of Darkness isn't a pure mafia role is terrible miscalculation. 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 6 (lynch, SK, Mafia, SK, Mafia, Me) 12 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 8 See while it seems funny that the day vig killed BM because he tends to spam post or you might find him annoying it, this is why Radfield I believe pushed so hard for town not to take KP roles. That 1 extra KP puts us at instant lose if no mafia die by second lynch if PoD activates. Please stop trying to find ways to use the PoD, its ONLY use is to help mafia. if it activates, we kill them end of story. @Opz, this is also why role cop was considered so good. If town took 0 KP roles then when RC found one we could lynch them, it also made BB able to lynch when he found a gun since it was mafia. Since we now have the day vig claiing to be town, and possibly others this method isn't as sure fire, because BB will find he has a gun just like he finds mafia have a gun. RC sees him with a KP role, that we left to go to mafia. If your wondering about my post, it is to say that I arrived at roughly the same conclusion that you did I really wan't to hear Paldian. Please explain yourself and your motives
Protip: press the "All" button. Hit control-f. LSB
Obviously you have not done so
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Oh, how I love the word scummy. And long posts that add real information!
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On August 27 2010 02:41 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2010 02:38 Pandain wrote:On August 27 2010 02:31 LSB wrote:On August 27 2010 02:25 Pandain wrote:On August 27 2010 02:13 Fishball wrote:
Yeah, Paldian , whoever you are, speak up! *Whisks off his mask.* Curses! How did you konw I was really Paldain the whole time? But I'm confused by your statement LSB. What do I have to explain and why would I have motives(unless you're accusing me of mafia, in which case I wouldn't tell you ) I just want to see where you stand. I believe if you're town, you'd have a logical reason. Where I stand on what? Use of my power
Originally I thought it might be useful in extreme situations but then I realized that using it is basically just skipping a day(which it is). I was thinking about getting two night actions from town roles, but in reality we're just skipping a lynch to get there.
So no, never use it.
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EPT
