EPTPick Your Power Mafia 2! - Page 2
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On August 23 2010 11:11 Radfield wrote: If by "random ass roles" you mean the very non-random percentages i've layed out at each spot, then yes. #1 Comp Vig #2 Bad Santa #3 Prince of Darkness #4 33/33/33 CV, Bad Santa or PoD #5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each) #6 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role #7 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #8 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role #9 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role #10 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #11 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #12 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #13 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #14. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other(Alignment Cop, Mason, Martyr, etc.) #15. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #16. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #17 50% role cop, 50% other #18 50% Joat, 50% other #19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other #20 50% tracker, 50% other I had some plans for how we should do role choices but after comparing it to this listing I think this may be the better way to go. My thought was to clump roles into groups and then assign the groups numbers each person would then RNG there group and select from the list based on where in the listing they were at (if you were lower pick the weaker options, higher pick the priority options. I think it would net us les vanilla townies, but it could possibly mean that some of the critical roles got missed. I still think it is viable but losing out on a rolecop might be too big a loss which I feel is why Radfield overemphasized the key roles so much. I think we may get a more vanillas with his plan, but since it is already decided on and it seems like we will be guaranteed to pick up the critical roles we should go with it. | ||
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EBWOP: My thought was to clump roles into groups and then assign the groups numbers. Each person would then RNG a number and select from the group. Based on your location in the picking order you would select the appropriate option. (if you were lower pick the weaker options, higher pick the stronger options.) I think it would net us less vanilla townies, but it could possibly mean that some of the critical roles got missed. I can explain more if anyone would like an alternative to the current plan. There are different benefits based on how the groups are setup and how many options are in each group. I was leaning towards 3 roles a group with checker and defenders in a group to allow for group claiming possibly mafia bating. | ||
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On August 26 2010 00:23 SouthRawrea wrote: One is me :D. I'm quite obviously not going to announce the role. Basically someone picked a role that they were not supposed to pick which I had picked as well. Not a huge deal but possible mafia candidate. So 5 possible people who stole my role D:. I think this actually can help us. It makes the role checker more useful. I think we should have the rolechecker start checking those of us near the top to see who didn't follow the plan and picked roles that they shouldn't have. SR you should have gone with JOAT. I don't know why you are picking something else unless you went with a defensive role, but then there is no reason it wouldn't have been taken before you. The reason I would like those of us in say the top 3-4 checked is that I am worried the mafia may have let a role slip through. And example would be if I took any role other than comp vig. Since I am taking it and no one else is then it would be possible for someone else lower on the ladder to get it. Now the town plan is currently to have a second vote everyday picking who we will vig that night, making it a 2x lynch. or if we abstain then a single lynch. If I don't follow the town vote then you lynch me the next day. If I had let the role drop then all of a sudden the threat of lynching me doesn't stop the mafia from using their KP. The comp vig role would be usable by a hidden mafia. The same hold true for the Prince of Darkness and Bad Santa. The reason they were made to be picked early is that we can lynch them guaranteed if they use there powers. It looks like now that someone let there power slip, and it seems that the most likely reason would be to hide that role with a lower mafia member. Thoughts? The problem I see with this is that maybe a lot more townies didn't follow the plan than we expected. SR already admits to not following the plan, Divinek didn't follow the plan as well. if everyone did there own thing then we may be back at square 1. | ||
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On August 26 2010 00:58 zeks wrote: ^ wasn't that the exact reason why we wanted the 33/33/33 cv/bs/pod for the #4 spot? i'm under the impression most of the top #'s went with the plan with one or two anomalies needless to say those anomalies are likely scum, and i feel strongly that there are scum lurking in the top 8. I agree, but we now have 6 saying he didn't go with the plan and someone else above him didn't go with the plan. so now we know for sure that 1/3 of the people in the top 6 didn't follow then plan. 1 or 2 in 20 might be an anomaly, but now we have 33% of the top 6 players not following the plan. The statement that there is scum in the top 8 though doesn't really mean much since that includes nearly half the players. There is very likely 2 scum in the top 8 and 2 in the bottom 8. Of course scum near the top is most likely more dangerous since better roles are more likely available. Now SR says he took an anti-town role but it was already taken. Obviously it wasn't comp vig, bad santa or PoD. That leaves traitor,Floridian, pardoner, role-blocker, vengeful townie, and maybe a few others I don't remember (KP roles?). why do we have 2 townies trying to grab up these roles? I thought the plan was that we leave them open to make the role cop more useful in finding scum since we lynch those with these roles. It made the town's investigations more powerful. South, mind explaining why you decided to do this? | ||
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Now that we know there is a traitor in the game we know the mafia has 1 more player but there KP doesn't change. Would the town trade a vanilla townie for a mafia on a 1to1 basis? I would say yes definitely. As such if we go with the plan of lynching Hesymer and protecting/checking zeks. If he flips Traitor, we get SR as a confirmed vanilla townie, and we get 1 red (traitor), and we get zeks alignment (possibly 2 confirmed townies day 1 and a red dead) If he flips townie, we then get SR as red (unless the check reveals zeks is traitor then we kill him instead) and we get zeks alignment, and Hesymer being townie also confirms that compvig is in the top 3. We also don't waste a lynch since I can vig him night 2. | ||
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##Vote Hesmyrr | ||
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On August 26 2010 04:04 LSB wrote: (I’ll make a long post on incentives!) So here are the people and their claims so far Chaoser, Subverion Me Hesmyrr: Claims to have RNGed CV and failed Zeks SouthRawrea: Claims to have Picked Traitor and failed Let’s take a look at specific people SouthRawrea Assuming SouthRawrea is town: As town, SouthRawrea would have incentive to immediately tell what happened. It would be perfectly natural. So if he’s town, he’s telling the truth. Assuming SouthRawrea is mafia: This could be a mafia disruption tactic. (see Penalty Mafia, how Bill Murray goes in and acts completely scummy). By sending SouthRawrea, immediately a witchhunt goes on, trying to lynch random people, buying the Mafia valuable time. For example SouthRawrea drafts Prince of Darkness. He’d end up vanilla. He then claims that he drafted traitor but failed. The town would proceed to kill Subverion, Me, Hesmyrr, Chaoser (maybe even Zeks too). And SouthRawrea wouldn’t have trouble persuading the town to kill these “useless anti-town roles”. Boom. That’s a lot of people dead. It would take us 4-5 innocent lynches to take down SouthRawrea, a very good trade off. Like citi.zen said Hesmyrr Out of the top 5, Hesmyrr is the most likely to want to pick Traitor. Because, his role is boring. He is supposed to check to see if Me/Sub/Chao picked the correct role. Probably getting a vanilla role. There is a very small chance that he might make a discovery. On the other hand, he could take traitor, probably won’t be caught, because really, no one will check him. Perfect position. The fact that Hesmyrr could be an undetectable traitor is very troubling. Chaoser, confirmed by Hesmyrr. The chances that Subverion/zeks took his role and Chaoser took traitor is very slim. Subverion: Bad Santa is defiantly an interesting role Zeks: idk Me: PoD ftw! I haz cool role that the mafia wants badly. Muhhahahahaha! What happens if we lynch… SouthRawrea: He flips Mafia, we know that there isn’t a traitor. (Or, there is a traitor, but the mafia doesn’t know about it, and the traitor could be anywhere) Flips town, we know that there is a traitor. Hesmyrr He flips traitor: :D! Flips town: We know that Chaoser is town. Confirming Chaoser: It’s quiet easy to confirm Chaoser, we simply tell the CV “IF you are Chaoser, kill SouthRawrea. IF you are not Chaoser, kill someone else” Confirming Me/Zeks/Subverion. It’s a bad idea to tell us to use our roles. Well, Sub can’t. I’m not dumb, and Zeks should remain hidden. We could have the role cop check on people’s roles. That seems good at a glance, but I don’t know if we want to trade our role cop, for someone that isn’t yet a mafia member and might not count as a mafia member. Good post, but I think you have Chaoser and I mixed up in your list or something. I am comp vig not him. He should have taken bad santa. | ||
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On August 26 2010 04:20 Fishball wrote: Funny Traitor wannabe's, lol. First off, Hesmyrr, we already know that rastaban would choose the CV and should be the CV now. Why would you pick CV in the first place? I don't really get it. As for SouthRawrea, there is always a possibility that he is lying. The only logical motive I could think of if he is either Mafia/SK, is that he is wants to plant a seed of doubt in our top 5 draft picks. However, these roles, if done according to plan, are mainly Mafia aligned roles. Offing these roles doesn't exactly impact town much at all. However if the town pushes hard and goes through that list, then it could work as a decoy and waste our lynches/CV kills. Long shot? Yes. Likeliness? 33% I'd say. Excluding SR himself, and rastaban who should be the CV. These are the people remaining on the list. 2. chaoser 3. LSB 4. Hesmyrr 5. zeks If we are indeed looking to cast a vote among these people, before we make a decision, I suggest everyone should ask themselves a few questions. - Is SR's claim likely to be true? - If yes, is Hesymrr likely to be the Traitor? - If no, who else could likely be the Traitor? Right now, I'm inclined to believe SR's claim, but I'm not entirely sure who could be the Traitor. Although I'm still wanting to hear the reasoning from Hesymrr, why he would pick CV when it was a general consensus that our #1 draft pick should pick it. Here is Hesmyrr's response, the plan was for him to random one of the top 3 roles so it would make sense for him to check that comp vig didn't slip: + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2010 02:43 Hesmyrr wrote: I followed the plan and picked Compulsive Vigilante, it was taken and I am now Vanilla Townie. I am astounded that you quote my post for some completely unknown reason, since I explicitedly said "I picked one of the anti-town roles using RNG generator". I don't know, but I would think one will think I followed my plan and RNG'd for CV/Bad Santa/PoD (anti-town roles) instead of immediately assuming that I took some completely random traitor role. Remember at that junction more than two people were specifically mentioning my name as they stressed the new draft order, that one must alter their role choices accordingly. Therefore I posted for everyone that I did what I needed to do by RNG between the three roles. You immediately follow this statement with assumption about my thinking process that comes out of nowhere, saying "because he would probably believe that his 33% chance of getting a role that's probably already taken is useless"? What benefit does I gain by picking traitor, first, and note that I had consistently agreed about the current town's plan and what I needed to do (#4) was completely necessary for the plan to work. This are the facts: * Someone in #1~3 has taken Compulsive Vigilante. * #4 picked Compulsive Vigilante but it was taken, becomes VT. (in my perspective) * #5 claims to have picked Role Cop/Copycat/Defensive role. * #6 claims to have picked Traitor but it was taken, becomes VT. I see several possibilities here: * A town-aligned player in either #2, 3, or 5 (I don't see much point to mafia picking Traitor) chose to betray the town and picked Traitor. Fortunately if we follow Radfield's plan (medic/rolecop target zeks N1) and no one speaks out tomorrow possibility of #5 will be eliminated since zeks will be confirmed townie. I would actually have Alignment cop investigate zeks also for day 1 for this reason to find out his sanity. * #6 is mafia-aligned or traitor, and is lying. Meh, even to me it seems unlikely. Mislynch d1 for one mafia members is honestly not worth the trade, though if #6 really in fact take traitor role I can see he trying to frame me for 1 vs 1 trade. The thing is I, being #4 spot, am in fact not that good a choice for traitor to emerge yet- to counterclaim town PR role is much better way of utilizing the role, which is why I think above possibility is more likely. | ||
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Also if he flips town he confirms my role as CV. Also to the earlier posts about wasting lynches, I will NK south tomorrow if Hesmyrr isn't traitor so we don't lose anything. | ||
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On August 26 2010 04:38 citi.zen wrote: Here's another thought: the mafia can perhaps find it more advantageous to make some crazy claims if they use the vengeful player. That way there is a chance we mis lynch base on the wrong information, AND when we do catch on they get another kill. I don't actually think SR did this, but I am saying it's a possibility in this set-up. I agree, unlikely but if we let me vig him tomorrow then he can't do this and the worst that could happen is he is a red meth man and town loses the comp vig but kills a red power role. | ||
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On August 26 2010 04:45 bumatlarge wrote: And why would hesmyr being town confirm rastaban as town? Wouldnt that jst be confirming him as comp vig? Maybe im missing a step, I follow the zeks confriming though. Anyway, lynch hesmyrr kill south if not a traitor sounds reasonable. ##unvote divinek ##vote Hesmyrr You are correct, I think the only way that it would slightly confirm me is if Hess was green and sub was red and and I shot him night 2. Even then it would only be partial and not 100%. Lynching Hess only confirms my role, which is actually very important as town since we need to be able to control it. | ||
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On August 26 2010 04:55 Pandain wrote: Only some problems and random speculation, just to make sure we're not doing the wrong thing. Lets go with 2 kills a day from SK and 1 from mafia. Going with 4 mafia and 2 SK's, lets see 13 already We lynch hesmyrr(12) Rasta vigis SR, but he is bulletproof (9) We try to lynch SR, mafia pardons him Night, mafia role blocks vigi (6) We lynch SR(finally) Night, mafia role blocks vigi (4)(to 3 mafia) we lynch someone, mafia wins no matter what(unless SK hits both mafia, which they'll have to guess. They'll try of course.) That's the worst case scenario I could think of. And even that can be settled for example by behind the scenes things such as role cop and joat. add even more uncertainty due to the fact SK could kill mafia. Remember, that's the worst case scenario. As of now, I...I think we should lynch Hesmyrr. The only other thing I'm worried about is that we may have to use bullet bill/rolecop to settle this. We NEED to be using those to figure out who is mafia/sk. I'm just so unsure now... thoughts? WHOA WHOA WHOA, where are you getting 2 SKs?? There is no way this game has 2 SKs, that is way too much night KP on top of comp vig. Also I can't shoot tonight, so my first shot will be tomorrow night after that days lynch. so only 2 people die tonight (mafia SK) unless they are blocked. If mafia pardons him then I sk who ever pardons him and we lynch him the next day. | ||
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If mafia pardons him then I NK who ever pardons him and we lynch him the next day. | ||
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On August 26 2010 05:15 Pandain wrote: Wait... you can't shoot tonight? If so, what does that mean about the next days lynch. We can't just kill SR tonight then. -.- correct, I will NK him tomorrow night if hess is green and we can lynch whoever else we want for that days lynch. | ||
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On August 26 2010 06:00 Radfield wrote: I feel like some people are assuming SR has an equal chance of being mafia or town. In my eyes, SR is far more likely town then mafia, which means there is likely a traitor in the top 5 players. Also, given that we likely have 5 anti-town players in the game, odds are there is also probably either a mafia or SK in those top 5 players as well. Not to mention that there is little risk of players 1-4 being good pro-town roles. Therefore, it seems a no-brainer to lynch one of the first 4 players. Seems highly likely that Rastaban is the CV, unless both him and Hesmyrr are lying(Hesmyrr went for CV). Since CV is not a threat if we know where it is, he's off the list. That leaves picks 2-4. The most dangerous player there right now is pick #3. If LSB is mafia, and took PoD according to the plan(which he likely would if mafia), then chances are he will use it tonight. With all the focus being on picks 2-4, there is a very good chance he will get found out in the next day or so. Hence, if mafia, he will use the power tonight. What I'm saying here, is that if we accept that picks 2-4 are equally likely to be the traitor, then we should lynch pick 3, solely for the additional reason that if mafia, he is extremely dangerous, and will likely use his power tonight(so time is of the essence on the lynch). Thoughts? Well I think at the very least we need a plan for me since we won't get a vote on who I should hit if we don't get another day phase.. hmmm actually if that occurs we can still talk during night phase, I assume, so it won't matter we can vote then and I can just hit #3 with my hit if it happens. | ||
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On August 26 2010 21:22 zeks wrote: I was never sold on the fact that PoD is a pure anti-town role. I mean sure its two night phases we skip a lynch (most of the time we lynch one of our own) and mafia gets 2 kills - but doesn't it also give our town roles more chances to act? (ie. cops get double the checks) We'd also have more information going into the next day to make a more educated lynch. It's just essentially a no lynch don't see how it can give scum a big advantage which is what people have been suggesting. Having said that I am against a no lynch tonight just cause I think its imminent to nab the traitor Well it is a no lynch and 48 hours of discussion lost. At least in a no lynch you learn what wanted the no lynch and get some voting patterns. I don't see how you could not realize that it is incredibly bad. Here is what we have barring medics and extra NKs: 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 3 (lynch, SK, Mafia) 15 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 11 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 7 Thats right we have 3 lynches and 2 comp vig kills to nab mafia or SK before we run out of time. That means we have to nab mafia in one of those 5 hits (OR the SKs) or we can't win the vote. Now I agree it is likely we will but, to pretend like a no lynch or Prince of Darkness isn't a pure mafia role is terrible miscalculation. 19 - 1 (day vig) 18 - 6 (lynch, SK, Mafia, SK, Mafia, Me) 12 - 4(lynch, SK, Mafia, Me) 8 See while it seems funny that the day vig killed BM because he tends to spam post or you might find him annoying it, this is why Radfield I believe pushed so hard for town not to take KP roles. That 1 extra KP puts us at instant lose if no mafia die by second lynch if PoD activates. Please stop trying to find ways to use the PoD, its ONLY use is to help mafia. if it activates, we kill them end of story. @Opz, this is also why role cop was considered so good. If town took 0 KP roles then when RC found one we could lynch them, it also made BB able to lynch when he found a gun since it was mafia. Since we now have the day vig claiing to be town, and possibly others this method isn't as sure fire, because BB will find he has a gun just like he finds mafia have a gun. RC sees him with a KP role, that we left to go to mafia. | ||
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On August 26 2010 14:12 Pandain wrote: Ha! You think that's tough? I had all my teeth pulled out while I was still awake. It was all in 10 minutes, one a minute. Then they took out my fingernails and forced all the yanked teeth as replacements. *cue next 1 up* Anyway, I just want everyone to remember that its 10 for majority lynch. So, I think we should think it out before auto-lynching him. Not saying we won't, just have to think about it. That story ain't nothin. EBWOP (for readability): See while it seems funny that the day vig killed BM because he tends to spam post or you might find him annoying it, this is why Radfield pushed so hard for town not to take KP roles. That 1 extra KP puts us in an instant lose if no mafia die by second lynch and the PoD activates. Please stop trying to find ways to use the PoD, its ONLY use is to help mafia. If it activates, we kill whoever it is end of story. | ||
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On August 27 2010 18:05 ~OpZ~ wrote: And no, that wasn't a soft blue/green claim, I followed the plan, I just know someone low on the totem pole had to of picked alignment cop. Makes sense to add as much detective power as possible. It's an important role, as much as radfield tried to diss it. The issue I have with the alignment cop, is that is is a role with only a 33% chance of working when you get it due to the three sanities. Of course if someone already has it then yes, they definitely should be trying to learn their sanities. I would actually recommend checking SR since according to plan he is the next one to be lynched. | ||
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