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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Another consideration, If jeejee is picking 1, and presumably will be drafting first, is he prepared to take CompVig. If not, I see that as extremely anti-town. If he doesn't want CV then fine, pick another number, but whoever gets to draft first HAS to take CV.
Likewise, if Darth is picking second, is he prepared to take Copy Cat. Again, it's very important that we know where Copy Cat is. The reason being, some random mafia gets Copy Cat, and we lynch a vanilla townie on day 1, then on night 1 the mafia can kill the CompVig and Swipe the role. Of course the doctor comes into play, so this probably isn't that big of concern.
Anyways, the real question is, are people prepared to follow a town role picking plan, or are people simply going to pick whatever they want to pick.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 21 2010 09:22 DarthThienAn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2010 09:17 JeeJee wrote:
well
i'm obviously picking 1/1, i shotgunned it, no blitz, gtfo DTA. there's no reason for any townie to double up on my number because i'm obviously picking CV if i get first, and we get a double lynch, all the time.
copy cat is an interesting one though.. it's mostly only important if CV dies first. not sure about it being the #2 pick I mean, obvious solution is that doctor protects CV night 1. Mafia want to take their chances? Let them, lol.
It's true, there really is no reason to put CC at #2, especially considering we have 2 doctors. I don't think we should be clearly stating who gets bullet bill or Role Cop, etc. These roles need to be hidden from mafia, or at least mixed around with Bulletproof/Veteran/Meth Man. Hence my whole post with the percentages.
There really is no other role that needs to be kept track of like the CV(or inventor last game).
I'm going to write up a list tomorrow morning of what I think our role drafting order might look like. That should give us a day and a half to amend and change it. If anyone else wants to feel free as well.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
# Watcher - At night you can choose to watch a player and receive information in the form of how many people visited the target that night.
Just to clarify Ace, this is not a regular watcher as far as what is commonly seen on TL. This only returns how many people visited a certain player, and not their names? If I decided to watch Qatol, I would get back something like: "Qatol was visited by 2 people last night" as opposed to "Qatol was visited by Ace and Caller last night"
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
To break down the roles once more:
Mafia Roles:
Floridian
God Father
Role Blocker
Pardoner
Bad Santa
Vengeful Player
Day Vig
Traitor
Prince of Darkness
Town Roles:
Role Cop
Tracker
Joat
Bullet Bill
Alignment Cop
Bulletproof
Veteran
Meth Man
Doctor
Doctor
Mason
Copy Cat
Watcher
Other:
Comp Vig
Martyr
Bold- Essential town roles
Italics- Defensive roles
I proposed earlier in the thread that we as town simply do not take any of the roles on the red list. The reasons being that it makes our role cop more powerful, and makes Bullet Bill more powerful.
The most useful roles on the red list for mafia are Bad Santa and Prince of Darkness. Bad Santa could give the mafia 2 extra kills, and PoD deprives us of a lynch. Both of these are worth taking to deprive the mafia of their abilities. Bad Santa is also a decent town role as it does act as an investigative roles, the key is to not ever use the killing power.
The most useful roles on the green list for mafia, are the Joat and the Role Cop, and then it goes down considerably from there. Bullet Bill would be useful for mafia, but only indirectly, as it would deprive us of one of our best investigative roles.
In light of this, I think our role picking list should look something like this:
#1 Comp Vig
#2 Bad Santa
#3 Prince of Darkness
So we take the three most dangerous roles as the first 3 picks. We use Comp Vig as the double lynch, we use Bad Santa solely for it's investigative powers, and not it's KP. Prince of Darkness never gets used. If Prince of Darkness gets used, then we have a sure-fire lynch. If extra KP from the bad santa is getting used(which should be obvious since we should never have 4 deaths in a night if the Joat holds his shot appropriately), then we lynch the bad santa. Either way though, this keeps vital mafia roles in known hands.
#4 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each)
#5 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role
#6 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role
#7 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role
#8 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role
#9 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role
#10 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 50% pro town non essential role(Doctor, Doctor, Alignment Cop, Watcher, Copy Cat, Mason. You choose)
#11 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 50% pro town non essential role
#12 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 50% pro town non essential role
#13-16 we prioritize tracker and the rest of the pro-town roles
#17 50% role cop, 50% other
#18 50% Joat, 50% other
#19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other
#20 50% tracker, 50% other
What I'm trying to do here is make it most likely that we get our investigative roles, while protecting them by mixing in the defensive roles. Also trying to make it more difficult for make to swipe roles. Last PYP as Serial Killer, I was super paranoid about going after the Meth Man, as it was one of the only ways I could die. Right now, players 4-9 each have a roughly 17% chance to be the Meth Man, and a ~50% chance to be a defensive role. Hopefully this is enough to protect those people most likely to be our Joat, Role Cop and Bullet Bill.
If we use this plan, what's the most effective way mafia/SK can screw us. First, they can snipe from #13-20, knowing that those players don't have any defensive powers. However, those players are also the most likely to be vanilla, so that's ok for town. Second, a high up mafia(2-6) could swipe Meth Man, or the Joat/Role Cop. Taking the Meth Man would make it easier for them to try to snipe at #4-9 and take out our investigative roles, but there are still Vet and BP, and importantly this would deprive them of a red role. Mafia taking Joat/Role Cop is unavoidable no matter what we do, which is why we have them as high as possible, forcing mafia to possibly get a vanilla role if they try for them.
So mafia will try to take town roles with their high picks, and then pick up the red roles with their low picks. That's fine to me as it means the role cop can narrow down his search to the lower ranks. Or, the mafia play along with the percentages, and draft according to the plan. This is great for us, as it deprives the mafia of the most vital red roles, while still allowing town to have most of the vital green roles. Town goes from having a slight advantage to a very large advantage.
Anyways, lets talk specifics here. What roles am I overvaluing/undervaluing? How can mafia exploit this? Are there any other roles that are particularly valuable for us to deprive mafia of? Does a different mix of percentages give us a better chance to get the best roles?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 21 2010 19:50 Bill Murray wrote:
JeeJee: 1
DTA: 2
rastaban: 3
chaoser:4
LSB: 5
Bill: 6
Hesmyrr: 7
zeks: 8 (unless he changed)
rastaban: 9
Radfield: 10
johnnyspazz: 11
Pandain: 12
citi.zen, vx70GTOJudgexv, SouthRawrea, SiNiquity, ~OpZ~ , Fishball, BrownBear, Divinek
I just realized why this is a very, very bad plan if everyone doesn't go along with it.
By everyone publicly stating their numbers, it makes it extremely easy for mafia to somwhat rig the draft to their liking. After looking at the plan I proposed, mafia realize that it would be very beneficial for them to hold the number 3 draft spot(prince of darkness). Lets also say that LSB (the 5th pick) is mafia. So the mafia would have two other players double up numbers with rastaban and chaoser, and voila, mafia have pick number 3.
Of course, if everyone declares their numbers, we can easily track who didn't land in the proper spots, who doubled up, and who benefited from the new draft order. We could pinpoint mafia fairly easy.
BUT, if some people don't tell us their numbers, or RNG, or don't check the thread again, then it becomes much more difficult to pinpoint the mafia, and lets them manipulate the draft as they see fit.
This gives us two options: we put pressure on the last 8 players to reveal their numbers, or we scrap the plan and all resend our numbers. At this point it makes sense to simply carry on with our number picking.
I hope this makes sense to the folks who haven't sent in numbers yet.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 21 2010 21:40 zeks wrote:
Radfield: "If Prince of Darkness gets used, then we have a sure-fire lynch."
DTA: "Prince of Darkness is a huge role to designate, because it forces mafia to never use it, unless it's endgame or unless they want to be revealed."
how will prince of darkness l be revealed after using his power? i thought the power is activated through secret PM
The idea was that a particular pick(in this case #3) takes the Prince of Darkness. That way we know where it is. If it ever gets used, we lynch whoever is pick #3
I am fine with your plan to prioritize some roles.
However, you are not confirmed town right now. You should not make up the list with exactly who gets what role: as you yourself said, it makes no difference if a particular townie picks first or last.
Please drop the public number claiming.
You're right. We can't have both public numbers, and a plan to organize picks. If I'm going to decide which roles are getting picked at what draft number(no one else is really weighing in too much on it), then we can't have public picks. Given that I'm unconfirmed, I could manipulate the pick order to benefit the mafia. This means there is no way any town player can have faith that I'm not manipulating the order, so there's no reason for anyone to have faith in the role picking plan.
Given that it's far more important for the town to have a role picking plan, then to have public numbers, we should drop the public numbers, and all just RNG a number(Or privately pick a number).
It's also important that we hammer out the details of the plan before the draft order becomes public, because at that point we run into the same problem.
I will be RNGing my pick, I recommend others do the same. The benefits of publicly claiming numbers was always very minimal to town anyways.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I agree with Citizen and Siniquity here. There is simply no benefit to having public numbers. Lets stick with hidden numbers.
Sinquity, we could have another pick slightly lower down (#2-5) also take Comp Vig. This would double check that the first player actually did take the CV role. We could also add in a percentage for taking CV in the 4-6 slots instead.
Citizen, the reason I would be against lynching the CV on day 1, is that the role doesn't hurt us until late game. As long as the CV follows orders, we get a double lynch each day. A double lynch is always advantageous for town, as it means we get to kill off 2 people each day/night cycle instead of 1. Without the CV role, Mafia/SK have a KP of 2, we have a KP of 1. With the CV role, Mafia/SK have a KP of 2, we have a KP of 2. Big benefit for town. At some point the CV becomes a liability(if we keep mislynching), but at the start of the game, a CV following orders is a plus for the town. If the CV ever doesn't shoot the proper player, then we lynch the CV, and the player who was supposed to get hit.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Citizen, I guess the question is, if town could double lynch every single day, is it in there best interest to do so? Yes, it speeds up the game, giving less days for town. But if we're using the double lynch(CV) to take out scummy players, who we would otherwise have to waste investigative powers or lynches on, then it's highly beneficial in my eyes.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
A few more ideas.
#1 Comp Vig
#2 Bad Santa
#3 Prince of Darkness
So far the same, but then:
#4 33% CV, 33% Bad Santa, 33% PoD
This makes it far riskier for mafia to mess with the top three picks, and riskier for them to try and let CV or PoD slip further down the list. It's possible that mafia could get pick #4 and one of the first three picks, but that can't be helped too much. While this does mean that the #4 pick will likely be vanilla, it seems quite worth it given that it reduces the likelihood of mafia gaining a large advantage through the draft. Also, with this set-up of planning our picks, #4 is no really more valuable than #20 for a town player.
Everything else gets bumped down by 1.
I've got more to add, but I have to go right now.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
OK, some more ideas.
#1 Comp Vig
#2 Bad Santa
#3 Prince of Darkness
Same as before, put these roles dangerous anti-town roles where we can find them
#4 33/33/33 CV, Bad Santa or PoD This is to assure that if mafia are pick #1,2 or 3, then there is some inherent risk in them not taking their assigned role and trying to let it slip to a lower mafia buddy.
#5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each)
#6 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role
#7 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role
#8 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role
#9 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role
#10 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role
#11 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker)
#12 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker)
#13 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker)
The change here obviously emphasizing the doctor role over the other pro-town, non investigative roles.
#14. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other(Alignment Cop, Mason, Martyr, etc.)
#15. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other
#16. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other
We pick up our last essential investigative role here with the tracker, and also hopefully scoop another doctor
#17 50% role cop, 50% other
#18 50% Joat, 50% other
#19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other
#20 50% tracker, 50% other
Same
Also, remember that part of the key here, is that no town players take any of the other pro-mafia roles, which allows our Role Cop and Bullet Bill to function at a much higher capacity. Those roles are:
Floridian
God Father
Role Blocker
Pardoner
Vengeful Player
Day Vig
Traitor
These changes do two things. They add in some assurance that a mafia at 1,2 or 3 can't let a role slip down to a mafia ally, and they increase our priority on picking up a doctor.
This plan however, leaves slots 14-20 as quite vulnerable to hits from both the SK and the Mafia. Therefore, our medics need to be protecting these slots(as well as the CV slot) to increase the chances of blocking a hit. Spots 2-4 don't really matter if they die, spots 5-13 have a decent shot at having a defensive role.
Is there any reason that people would be against this plan? Opz, you stated you don't want to follow this plan, do you have a particular reason? Stating "game starts to me after i get to pick my power" is a little silly, as obviously the game has started. Town, Mafia and SK all know their roles, the game is on. Having the town organized on picking significantly helps in my eyes. Do you have a reason you think everyone picking for themselves is the best course of action?
Questions, Concerns, Thoughts? I'd love to hear some more people weigh in on this.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 23 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:I like this plan. Urge everyone to look over this and folllow it, paying special attention to what roles NOT to pick. I would wish alignment cop would be more likely but oh well, I guess its okay.
I think both Doctors and the Alignment Cop will get taken. Likely by people from 14-20.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 23 2010 08:57 citi.zen wrote:
If the town commits to not taking some roles, don't they become "reserved" for mafia?
Absolutely, but remember that the most powerful mafia roles we're taking preventatively (PoD and Bad Santa). Lets take a look at the roles we're actually leaving them:
Floridian: A good role for mafia, particularly in the end-game, but likely not one that will hurt us continually as the game goes on
God Father: Not a real great role considering we have a tracker, role cop and bullet bill, all capable of finding him.
Role Blocker: A weak role until we start publicly claiming roles, then it becomes quite strong. Likely the mafia will take this role.
Pardoner: A weak role, only useful in the late game. Obviously the way we're playing it, anyone who uses the role is mafia.
Vengeful Player: OK, but there are better roles for mafia to take.
Day Vig: A decent role for mafia, but by leaving it for mafia, it actually becomes less powerful, since anyone who uses it will be insta-lynched at the next opportunity. It really functions exactly as the Vengeful Player, an after lynch attack(see PYP1). It's important that this role stays out of town hands, as it would reduce Bullet Bill's effectiveness.
Traitor: Mafia will not pick this.
Honestly, none of these roles really frighten me, and when you look at the glut of pro-town roles we should be able to pull down, I think we'll be in pretty good shape.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I think it most likely that mafia will simply play along with our list, and hope to land high up where they can legitimately take roles that help them(role cop, joat etc.). If they do decide to avoid the pro-mafia roles, we have a huge advantage given our glut of blue roles. Just imagine if all the pro-mafia roles were removed from the game, it would be wildly imbalanced in the town's favor.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Well BM, I suppose I should fess up. I picked 6 specifically to double up with you 
I just don't trust you to follow the plan if you land in a top spot, and you played really poorly last PYP. Anyways, hopefully you enjoy it down here with me 
Also, I picked 6,2. So if you picked 6,1 it means that bumatlarge also doubled up with you.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Also, looks like Brownbear took 1,1, since presumably JeeJee stuck with 1,1. And I assume Divinek took 2,1 with DTA.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 23 2010 11:07 Divinek wrote:
so according to your plan radfield do us guys down here just try to take random ass roles and hope for the best?
If by "random ass roles" you mean the very non-random percentages i've layed out at each spot, then yes.
#1 Comp Vig
#2 Bad Santa
#3 Prince of Darkness
#4 33/33/33 CV, Bad Santa or PoD
#5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each)
#6 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role
#7 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role
#8 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role
#9 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role
#10 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role
#11 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker)
#12 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker)
#13 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker)
#14. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other(Alignment Cop, Mason, Martyr, etc.)
#15. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other
#16. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other
#17 50% role cop, 50% other
#18 50% Joat, 50% other
#19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other
#20 50% tracker, 50% other
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Hmm, we lost a person though. That really sucks. I guess # 20 is off the list.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
This is true citizen, but if I'm the SK, I'm not going near anyone who might be the Meth Man. So as long as Meth Man is hidden, SK is somewhat forced to shoot elsewhere.
SK also still needs to worry about the tracker too. My thought is that's the role that SK/Mafia will try to kill off first.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
+ Show Spoiler +Ace, I had no idea you could do that List=ordered thing. Very cool
OK, this was our number list before we decided not to do it publicly. From the looks of things though, most people stayed with their same number
JeeJee: 1
DTA: 2
rastaban: 3
chaoser:4
LSB: 5
Bill: 6
Hesmyrr: 7
zeks: 8
Radfield: 10
johnnyspazz: 11
Pandain: 12
Looks like Jeejee got doubled up with BrownBear. Darth either picked 6 or 1, and then Rastaban, chaoser, LSB, Hesmyrr and Zeks are all lined up in a row.
- SouthRawrea
- rastaban
- chaoser
- LSB
- Hesmyrr
- zeks
- siNiquity
- jspazz
- Fishball
- ~Opz~
- citi.zen
- BrownBear
- JeeJee
- DarthThienAn
- Divinek
- Radfield
- Bill Murray
- bumatlarge
- Pandain
From a mafia point of view, Rastaban and Chaoser have benefited most from Brownbear's doubling up of JeeJee. Darth, I'd like to know what numbers you picked, and why.
Anyways, I doubt we can read much into the numbers anyways. If I was mafia, I would have had everyone RNG anyways. Last game, the mafia's numbers ended up being a give-away. I doubt they would do it again(although not many players here were in PYP1)
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Random.org is a good site too if people need a RNG.
I'll be doing mine shortly.
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EPT
