EPTTL Mafia XXVIII
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citi.zen
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On July 14 2010 04:44 youngminii wrote: ^ I totally think you made those posts in the wrong thread. Lies, this is exactly where they belong. | ||
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How does the clue change the game dynamic? It gives people something to talk about. However, "good" clues are non-obvious and confusing, not really helpful at catching reds. In the end this is still supposed to be a game of mafia, where information is generated primarily by the interaction between players, not the mod. | ||
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On July 16 2010 04:29 YellowInk wrote: I agree with this. The other impact of clues is that at the endgame you're going to have multiple clues pointing at the last couple mafia which can make it really tough for scum to pull out a close victory. Clues definitely help the town in the 'close' games. I also would not like to burden any mod with the onus of making fair and balanced clues. Take my opinion as you will - I'm not currently signed up to play. I don't want to have a thick multi-game overlap like I did for nearly a week between TMMM and HP. Caller's game doesn't seem to be in a hurry to start, though, so I may end up joining. The endgame balance should ideally be handled through the rules and roles in any game. If clues were to introduce some imbalance you'd have to change something else. Not sure it's a huge issue... just saying. | ||
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On July 17 2010 12:07 Pandain wrote: fuuuuck, then what do you do when you realize your life is meaningless in a crime ridden, police nonexistant world? Fake roleclaim medic on day 1. That should take care of it. | ||
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## vote Darth | ||
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On July 17 2010 12:33 rastaban wrote: Wow the last I checked, we were waiting for people things sure do move fast. I don't know what to do without cult based mafia recruiting, but so far in every game I have played citi.zen has been the GF so thats as good a reason as any. (ok I have only played one game but statisticly it looks sound  )## vote citi.zen Damn it, caught again! | ||
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1. PMs are allowed so trust circles are the way to go. Sooner or later they will form because of Dt checks, medic protection, vet soaking up a hit when we know they are the lone vet, etc. When this happens we'll be in good shape. 2. BCs list is fine, but many people seem to miss its point entirely. 3. There is no roleblocker, but there is a suicide bomber. Be very careful with your circles. Speak through confirmed townies if possible. 4. We lynch an inactive and/or bad player day one. Hyperbola is a fine target. Bumatlarge is ok too, bringing grudges from prior games here can derail us for many pages. 5. I already voted for Darth, why is it not counted? I will likely change it, but still! | ||
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On July 18 2010 12:55 youngminii wrote: Oh yeah I totally forgot lynching an inactive is exactly the same as abstaining. Heh, obvious lack of logic in my plans. I am more concerned with this: On July 18 2010 09:48 youngminii wrote: What, why am I included in a scum list  Anyways, I've been spamming Starcraft 2 all night and I'm dead tired but since we haven't really moved out of RVS it looks like I haven't missed out on much. I have a question for BM. What happens if everyone votes to abstain? If the answer is a no lynch, then I suggest everyone change their votes to abstain for the first day. A no lynch (in my experience) on the first day is generally beneficial to town in a standard-ish setup. We'll also get all the modkills out of the way which will narrow down the list of potential scum. I especially do not want to accidentally go and lynch a blue role, that'd be horrible. In fact, I have another question (I may have just missed this in the OP), are roles flipped upon death? I'd assume so but I just want to make sure. Just for some pre-emptive planning for the night: DTs check 'good' players, especially players that are unlikely to go inactive. Medics should protect whoever they want, generally you'd want to protect the person that seems the most towny and frequently posts. Of course, if you feel that you should be doing something else, you should trust your instincts. Re-read BC's post to see what that list is really about. In fact, your entire post is a mess - asking about stuff that was already covered, pretending to give useful advice to the blues and so on. I can't say I've played a lot with you, but based on last game these sort of mistakes are not that common from you. | ||
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Moving along: my main goal today is not to pretend like I can sniff out a red on day 1, but to get everyone to participate. Foolishness and ketomai have not posted. I have hope for foolishness know he a solid player so I would rather not see him go this early. I will vote for ketomai. Unvote ##vote ketomai | ||
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On July 19 2010 05:17 DarthThienAn wrote: ebwop: did I say YellowInk? I think I meant youngminii. lol. Anyway, later all. Probably be back after the vote. Hope you guys don't kill me. Death Post: + Show Spoiler + Townie There are no death posts or coroners in this set-up. Roles are revealed by the mod. | ||
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On July 19 2010 08:25 Foolishness wrote: Switching my Vote from abstain: ##Vote BloodyCobbler Just based on bad vibes so far. I am busy irl the past few days, but I will be active permanently by the first night for the rest of the game. If the first night goes by and I haven't made an active contribution feel free to hold me accountable. The most interesting development thus far. Can't say I disagree but would be very uncomfortable voting for him purely on day one "vibes". | ||
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On July 20 2010 03:44 Divinek wrote: yeah read the thread but didnt contribute anything and based on what his posts said he's probably worse than inactive at this point cause he actually voted i see people say that alot 'oh shit rl busy im gonna read thread and post some stuff' then they dont, they just say this to take focus off them and possible votes im for sure throwing my vote on him as soon as day comes so he can hopefully be forced to actually post something I like this. You will go on my "likely town" list. | ||
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On July 20 2010 05:00 DarthThienAn wrote: Analyze me! Analyze meeeee! Reddish shade of brown of course. | ||
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On July 20 2010 05:22 flamewheel wrote: Damn it, why is that breed so resilient? Time to do some extermination. I supply the Darth, you bring the lightning. Seriously, where is everyone? | ||
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On July 20 2010 09:31 Foolishness wrote: You'd have an easier time if you look at lakrismamma or citi.zen I know you're not a bad player, so this attempt to cast doubts on me out of the blue strikes me as odd. Especially since you're grouping me with lakrismama - which makes zero sense, as you would know full well it if you were honestly searching for reds. Look at his posts: On July 18 2010 15:25 lakrismamma wrote: Good post! Abstaining is stupid. Part of why suggesting voting for for inactive persons is to make that person become active to defend himself therefore we get more to read from and mafia cant hide in the inactives. I think Hyperbola has defended himself pretty well. ##vote LaxerCannon He is usually more active so get to it Laxer. On July 19 2010 03:46 lakrismamma wrote: I think youngminii has a point. I think we should keep an eye on hyperbola and him but not lynch them. DTA is probably just inactive town. But in that case we have no need for him either. So he is a decent alternative. I will follow citizen though to create a third alternative. ##Unvote ##vote ketomai Transparent much? No mafia, in any game that I have seen, risks showing this "support" towards each other on day 1. You know this. And you Sir are now looking very red. | ||
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On July 20 2010 20:18 Jayme wrote: You have to balance the fact that you have a central confirmed townie with which to operate from. Randomly hitting a Vet is so rare as it is that I just don't see a huge benefit in keeping them hidden when one has obviously been hit...or the medic got a really lucky protection on someone. I personally like the vet claiming idea because on their own they are a pretty weak blue role. The DTs had two checks last night. Unless they both hit red, we already have the start of a circle, maybe two. I would trust these checks before te vet claim at this point, since the dts picked them more "randomly". That said, I doubt the mafia would fake claim this early. It gives them very little for a pretty big risk: if another vet is hit/lynched, the GF is toast. It would also mean they purposely wasted a kp. So we should be in good shape. Assume the claim was genuine but don't take stupid risks, we don't need them. The big thing is we didn't lose any blues, and the mafia only killed one person. | ||
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On July 20 2010 23:58 zeks wrote: i'm more inclined to believe d3 is town from a medic claim than a vet claim if he false claims medic protection, medics would know whats up immediately. if he claims vet there could be the slight possibility of: mafia sends in 1 hit, d3 claims vet tricks us all into thinking he got hit and infiltrates town circles. regardless i'll give him the benefit of the doubt that mafia didn't pull off what i said above. ##Vote DarthThienAn You're playing way out of your normal character, and you're no Bill Murray. Either you're scum or trying too hard to not get hit by being abnoxious. Please explain the logic of the underlined statement to me. The OP states there are 2/2 medics alive, so how doe either one of them know what the other one did? | ||
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On July 21 2010 00:32 zeks wrote: you're right i guess we don't know for sure. but I think its highly unlikely for mafia to bank on the fact that both medics dont know what the other one did to claim a hit just on the fact that its so risky. not saying d3 is clear 100% but i just think scum would be kinda dumb to pull something like that so early Are you thinking about the game much or just trying not to seem inactive? Which reminds me - what happened to BC? | ||
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On July 21 2010 02:28 rastaban wrote: This is the sample note from the OP with the relevant part bold. OK, the usual set-up. Just curious. | ||
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On July 21 2010 03:21 Misder wrote: I would also like to point out this post by citi.zen. + Show Spoiler + On July 20 2010 10:09 citi.zen wrote: I know you're not a bad player, so this attempt to cast doubts on me out of the blue strikes me as odd. Especially since you're grouping me with lakrismama - which makes zero sense, as you would know full well it if you were honestly searching for reds. Look at his posts: Transparent much? No mafia, in any game that I have seen, risks showing this "support" towards each other on day 1. You know this. And you Sir are now looking very red. Foolishness has been pointed out as having odd behavior. He may have been a future lynching target. Why would the mafia target someone who is suspicious of being red? Good collection of posts man, congrats! You left out this one: On July 19 2010 08:25 Foolishness wrote: Switching my Vote from abstain: ##Vote BloodyCobbler Just based on bad vibes so far. I am busy irl the past few days, but I will be active permanently by the first night for the rest of the game. If the first night goes by and I haven't made an active contribution feel free to hold me accountable. | ||
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On July 21 2010 05:56 DarthThienAn wrote: There's the possibility that d3 is a mafia faking taking a hit. It's low chance, but not 0% so I didn't leave it out. Other than that, he's either a veteran and/or got medic protection. What do you mean? My thoughts: Mafia FAILED last night strategically. Subversion was NOT being sarcastic/joking (look at his post). So why would he say that? Furthermore, even if the mafia HAD failed, saying that "mafia aren't making too many mistakes" is an extremely odd statement to make. Sure, it's not the best lead, but it's better than me, and I'm willing to let BB redeem himself if he happens to be a terrible townie. Subversion, on the other hand, doesn't seem to be on the path to correction at all. I don't know... I am leaning with Pandain here. Subversion is a brand new player who does not know what to expect in these games. I can see him think... "How do you catch mafia? You watch for mistakes! Have we caught any? Nope. Ah - so thus far they aren't making too many mistakes." I see no huge red flag. That said, he does not strike me as someone useful for the town so I am OK losing him if there are no better candidates. | ||
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On July 21 2010 06:13 DarthThienAn wrote: No huge red flag, but it's better than BB and myself. ^_^. Thanks for the honest comment, I understand where you are coming from. I am a bit puzzled as to the rest of the players though. Every time someone screams out a name for some trivial reason, there is a voting train: BB is playing bad, omg! DTA is playing different!!! Subversion said the mafia made no big mistakes thus far, wow!I Hyperbola did... whatever he did, he deserved it! Voting like this can turn out OK if you are lucky, but in most cases does not really help the town. Zero cost to cast a vote I guess... if you are wrong... so was everyone else... if you are right... ZOMG THIS KID IS PRO!!!! | ||
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On July 21 2010 06:27 Amber[LighT] wrote: Subversion isn't that new. He played in BM's Harry Potter mafia, not sure if he's played in others... don't discount someones skill because they haven't played mafia on these boards before. I am not discounting his skills. I am saying I can understand a new player thinking "the mafia have not made big mistakes thus far". That is all. Playing 100x games matters much less than thinking clearly for yourself. | ||
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On July 21 2010 20:33 zeks wrote: Since I didn't bold and my vote didn't count: ##Vote DarthThienAn Oh yeah, thanks for reminding me a bout that post. ## vote zeks | ||
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On July 22 2010 01:43 Misder wrote: Uh... Is there a reason why I'm under suspicion? If there is, what is it? Glad you asked! I am intrigued by the trifecta of you/zeks/BC. If one of you turned red, I'd heavily suspect the others. The converse obviously does not necessarily hold. BC concluded in his long post that zeks and misder are likely innocents who left the hyperbola bandwagon when they realized what a monster of a creation is was, and that it was probably leading to lynching an innocent player (hello day 1 lynches). Seems like a pretty strong thing to infer, but the man has mad experience, so who knows. Both zeks and misder use the same argument for their switch: they never voted with any conviction, only to make hyperbola become more active. Then foolishness got killed and the ever so helpful misder put together a post on foolishnes' accusations about me and darth, conveniently forgetting to include the fact that foolishness voted for BC. This post was an obvious attempt to start suspicion, but mysteriously misder never followed up on it once Amber 'splained it to him: On July 21 2010 03:29 Amber[LighT] wrote: Because then it puts the finger-pointers in a position when players, such as yourself, go back and analyze the posts. This is actually a common ruse to cause the town to run around in circles as townies battle townies. It's not to say your analysis is invalid, but it could just be a breadcrumb trail to no-wheres-ville setup and managed by the mafia. Most townies enjoy debating their hunches, mafia prefers to start shit and then lay low - this is exactly what you did here. So yeah, I think you make an excellent lynching candidate. If you turned red we'd have a lead on other players. If you are not lynched you or zeks should get checked tonight (not BC - if red he would be the GF who put himself up for checking). That's my little conspiracy theory of the day! | ||
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unvote ##vote Chaoser + Show Spoiler + Meh. | ||
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On July 21 2010 09:09 Subversion wrote: THANK YOU fucking hell. I played in ONE NIGHT of harry potter mafia, I got temp banned for some stupid joke and got replaced This is my first game ffs, I didn't realise what I said would make it "oh gg, he's mafia lol, what a fkn moron". I was trying to be useful Seems like everyone is jumping on my voting bandwagon, I get what I said was stupid now, although I still don't really understand why its a fucknormous mistake. I was simply stating what to me, was a fairly obvious fact. It was kind of a justification for my vote to be honest. I didn't see any major mistakes, I didn't have anyone I felt REALLY deserved a vote, but I didn't wanna abstain and I thought Hyperbola was fucked anyway. So I read what he said and what others said, there didn't really seem like any better choice, so I just voted for him. Like I said, I didn't really think my vote mattered much anyway. I also had Bill up my ass saying I was gonna be modkilled if I didn't vote! I really don't want to be voted out here, I don't want to roleclaim either, but I can if necessary?? | ||
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Lynchable? Not so sure I can justify it. | ||
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On July 22 2010 07:17 DarthThienAn wrote: unvote ##Vote: chaoser Someone, quick summary of what chaoser is being lynched? Good question man. I wanted to lynch midser or zeks personally, but nobody reacted to my post. Not even the people I named, beyond having midseer ask "why" to then fall silent again. Sigh... | ||
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On July 22 2010 15:22 BloodyC0bbler wrote: .... You guys seriously, I go to work, come back and see this mess? I hope you all learned your lesson. Keep in mind tommorrow, and tonight as everyone realizes how dumb today was, they will go back and re read all the people pushing for these stupid bandwagons. I would center look around players like youngminii, pandain, and pyrr. Those three pushed for the main people who ended up on the lynching block the most. Of those three, youngminii is the one who has the most explaining to do. He then managed to clutter up god knows how much of the thread going after chaoser, then once day lynch ends, he gets into another argument with another player. HE needs to learn to simmer down and think things through logically and post it in a not confrontational manner all the time, or take a time out. Pandain similar reasons, alot of finger pointing, lots of arguing leading to derailing the thread into the spiral of what the day ran into. Pyrr for pushing for DTA's lynch, which then offed a townie. Pyrr is certainly filling up his share of space with useless spam. Paindain I feel is trying really hard and is most likely town. Youngminii I've suspected from day one and have seen nothing to change my mind, he is a different person from last game - active but sloppy, and crankier. I still think misder is a great lynching candidate. But... this is the problem right here: many shady people, some of whom must be town playing poorly (see Darth). Without some firm information it will be hard to get on the right track. Fortunately we have both DTs and medics alive. | ||
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On July 23 2010 03:23 chaoser wrote: Pyrrhuloxia vote DTA at 19:16 XeliN vote DTA at 20:25 zeks votes DTA at 20:33 (actually voted DTA at 23:58 the previous KST day) Subversion votes DTA at 21:20 The 3 votes (pyrr,xelin,sub) jump DTA to the top of the list from 3 to 6 citi.zen votes zeks at 23:38 (says he might vote misder if convinced) misder unvotes DTA, votes chaoser at 1:32 (drops DTA to 5, chaoser to 4) Amber[Light] unvotes BB votes Subversion at 1:34 (Subversion at top with 6, BB at 4) BB votes DTA at 2:22 (DTA ties Subversion at top with 6) Protactinium abstains at 2:26 LaXerCannon votes DTA at 3:00 (DTA to top with 7) Lakrismamma votes Roffles at 4:32 BC votes amber at 4:51 Roffles votes chaoser at 5:16 (chaoser to 5) Lakrismamma votes chaoser at 5:53 (chaoser to 6) rastaban unvotes BB, abstains at 6:25 Pandian unvotes chaoser, votes Subversion (Subversion ties DTA at 7, chaoser at 5) citi.zen unvotes zeks, votes chaoser (chaoser at 6) DTA unvotes Subversion, votes chaoser (DTA, Subversion, Chaoser tie at top in that order) At this point BrownBear is out of the equation Very nice list, congrats! What does it mean? | ||
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On July 23 2010 04:36 chaoser wrote: read it for yourself and come up to your own conclusions, I'm not your mom. I'm not even done yet. But if you want, I'll write up a HUGE BIG PIECE OF ANALYSIS LATER if you want ok? Thanks I'll be looking forward to it! | ||
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On July 23 2010 05:19 tree.hugger wrote: Unless the town comes to some kind of judgement about who to check, then we really don't need to worry too deeply about him. As we all know, just because I say something doesn't mean we're going to do it. For example, it's important that the town talks about citi.zen and BC. Both are veterans, both are smart, both are good at this game. Also, both have been utterly useless so far, popping in once in a while to tell the town that it's doing it all wrong, without ever adding something concrete. It's that kind of ambiguous grey area of activity and inactivity that the mafia love to hide in. Of course, Subversion or youngminii would be great checks as well, seeing as how they're both the same color, and it'd be useful to find out what that is. And surely none of these people would object to them being checked, because they have nothing to fear, right? I've actually tried to contribute, it's just that nobody cares to read anything but their own little flame wars. Has there been a single reply to my accusation of misder? Crickets - after asking me why I suspected him even he hasn't followed up at all - why draw attention to yourself when there is not risk of getting lynched? I also thought lynching zeks would be a decent idea, and said that if he is red we could have 2 more strong suspects, remember? Here's one more: look above you at Chaoser's posts. What he is doing is textbook red in my experience. The endless "voting behavior" discussions are a great way for the mafia to distract everyone for pages and pages, but I am yet to see a red "caught" based on it. It does however offer a great way to seem "active" without risking much - all you're doing is summarizing data without even commenting on it (why risk slipping up!). Another subtle and common bit of mafia behavior is to be more dismissive than usual, saying things like "I'm not your mom" or "screw you" rather than respond in a way that encourages further discussion. It works great when it's done by veterans against new players, but everyone does it to some degree. All the while, Chaoser was active and online, even posting in other threads. Am I being too ambiguous? | ||
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On July 23 2010 05:54 BrownBear wrote: I'm FoSing everyone who's talked about what the DTs should do. Anything that could influence what the DTs or medics do, the SB could pick up on. The SB could then use this information to splat 2 extra people in one night. So Amber, tree.hugger, citi.zen... shut up now. Where did I once mention the DTs? All I said is those people are suspicions to me. If I get killed tonight there might as well be a paper trail. | ||
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On July 23 2010 04:36 chaoser wrote: read it for yourself and come up to your own conclusions, I'm not your mom. I'm not even done yet. But if you want, I'll write up a HUGE BIG PIECE OF ANALYSIS LATER if you want ok? Thanks Still waiting eagerly! | ||
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On July 23 2010 13:32 youngminii wrote: Okay now you're getting me quite annoyed. I have never said mafia made no mistakes so far. Plus even if I did it doesn't mean anything, thanks. | ||
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On July 23 2010 22:51 chaoser wrote: I don't think they claimed vet. didn't BC say he got medic saved? d3 claimed vet, but BC didn't, you're right. | ||
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On July 20 2010 14:35 d3_crescentia wrote: Okay, so. I took a hit last night. According to Bill, I was protected from a bunch of fat men in suits. I guess that means all of you scum need to hit the gym. There was also an Asian with a cell phone. (DARTHTHIENANANANANAN!?!?!?!?!?!) Oh, and if you're wondering, the reason why I'm posting this so late is because Bill didn't send me a PM initially ~_~ You seem to be right... | ||
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On July 24 2010 01:50 SiNiquity wrote: True. Though if Tricode were Mafia, it would give us 2 Mafia members immediately, which would be a wealth of information for us. It would be one hell of a Mafia gamble to fake all of this, as they would have to bank on us not lynching Tricode. I don't know about killing tricode, it makes zero sense - he's almost confirmed and thus potentially very useful. I am wondering whether the two DTs can use tricode to coordinate between themselves. All he would do is pass them each other's name (or name of their contact). He would also have to keep his mouth shut to everyone else. If the two Dts were in contact somehow we'd be in fantastic shape. Comments? | ||
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On July 24 2010 02:16 chaoser wrote: If the hit didn't even happen then we can assume both are mafia and that in general is a bad play by mafia, two public figures lying about roles. Either BC is mafia and lying or both are telling the truth. I think those are the only two real possibilities...right? More like a "very risky play for mafia". I view it as unlikely, but not impossible. | ||
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On July 24 2010 10:31 tree.hugger wrote: Hahahaha, BC where was that Day 1? Also, I think we should lynch youngjeezy. He's like Subversion, (and tied to him) but more annoying. I think, seeing how he's rendered an opinion on practically everyone in the town by now, he's a lynch that'll keep on giving. I've thought he's mafia from the beginning, basically, and he's continued to get pretty much everything wrong since then. But I guess I'm open to lynching citi.zen as well, as he's been spectacularly unhelpful, and has been sitting firmly in that grey area between activity and inactivity that usually harbors at least half of the mafia. Pop quiz: out of BC's list of himself, me or pyrr, who has been "hugging that green area" closest? | ||
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I am a mad hatter. I am part of a dt circle. I would love to help the two dt's connect. Here's how we can do it: 1. Wait to see if there is a counter claim against me and Tricode, since together we should account for the 2 town Kp roles. If there isn't, we are both confirmed. If there is, we have a red player. 2. The other dt asks a confirmed person they checked to contact me. If more than one person comes forward I will ask the dt to claim. This way, if the mafia decide to fake claim we have two reds, not just one. 3. The two DTs, remaining publicly anonymous, are in contact. We give ourselves a chance to win. | ||
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On July 24 2010 12:05 citi.zen wrote: Ok, let's blow this taco stand. I am a mad hatter. I am part of a dt circle. I would love to help the two dt's connect. Here's how we can do it: 1. Wait to see if there is a counter claim against me and Tricode, since together we should account for the 2 town Kp roles. If there isn't, we are both confirmed. If there is, we have a red player. 2. The other dt asks a confirmed person they checked to contact me. If more than one person comes forward I will ask the dt to claim. This way, if the mafia decide to fake claim we have two reds, not just one. 3. The two DTs, remaining publicly anonymous, are in contact. We give ourselves a chance to win. People like spam and I want this to be easy to find. Also: if there is no counter-claim by tomorrow it would be wise for all blues to RC to me. Would a shame to lynch / investigate / bomb the wrong person. Thanks. | ||
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So not only do we have you claiming the second KP role, your claiming your in touch with a dt, that your confirmed, and are now requesting a player the other dt has confirmed to check in and ask the dt to claim..... So, someone starts to FoS you, you then claim amazing inner circle, and are asking the DT or if nothing else a confirmed townie to trust you 100%. The DT's in your plan stay anonymous, except are forced to claim to people they haven't verified opening up confirmed people to potentially die, and yourself an easy out if either of them die by accusing the other persons "confirmed" person as red. Now as much fun as this would be We have two town KP roles claiming today. neither of which are confirmed (counterclaims could disprove this but requires wasting dt checks, lynches, time, and opening up everything to a bomber). Seriously people read the post, he is asking for a way into a town circle a dt has begun without confirming himself in the least, this is shady shady play and citizen knows it. Then couple it with And you not only have him requesting DT's hes requesting all blues to roleclaim him. NO ONE, should be roleclaiming someone unconfirmed asking for so much out of the blue for this. This is beyond the matter of a simple roleclaim, and is now potentially a game ender for whatever side citizen actually is. Public roleclaims are bad enough, adding in a complete grab for blues is even worse. | ||
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So not only do we have you claiming the second KP role, your claiming your in touch with a dt, that your confirmed, and are now requesting a player the other dt has confirmed to check in and ask the dt to claim..... So, someone starts to FoS you, you then claim amazing inner circle, and are asking the DT or if nothing else a confirmed townie to trust you 100%. The DT's in your plan stay anonymous, except are forced to claim to people they haven't verified opening up confirmed people to potentially die, and yourself an easy out if either of them die by accusing the other persons "confirmed" person as red. Now as much fun as this would be We have two town KP roles claiming today. neither of which are confirmed (counterclaims could disprove this but requires wasting dt checks, lynches, time, and opening up everything to a bomber). I never claimed to be "confirmed". I only stated that if nobody else counter-claims, I will be. You know this. Also, curious who it is that "FOS-ed" me. You? Look at your list of suspects above. I don't see an analysis on myself. Tree.hugger? Look at who he voted for. Do you really think this would be enough for a mafia to come up with a risky plan which can only end in a counter-claim? I know you know better. Seriously people read the post, he is asking for a way into a town circle a dt has begun without confirming himself in the least, this is shady shady play and citizen knows it. I am actually going to have access to both town circles. Scary, isn't it? Throughout this game I felt you did little more but offer boiler-plate "tactical" advice. Like your long post about the game set-up: interesting but useless, other than to try to shed some suspicion on me. Now you are trying to stop this without any solid counter-argument. You also placed yourself on a "to check" list day one, so I'd guess you know you'd pass. You make a compelling GF right now. So, unless I hear of a confirmd red from the other DT: ##vote BloodyC0bbler | ||
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On July 24 2010 14:36 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Say for instance He is lying. [blah... blah...] Stop right there. We will need a counter claim from your gang for that to be a possibility. Anytime now. | ||
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On July 24 2010 15:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Citizen, you know im criticizing you because what you proposed isn’t a solid plan. You offered a plan that your “confirmation” was no counter claim. A dt has to prove he’s a DT after day 2 by handing over a red typically. A vig has to have wasted a shot and been willing to die (see tricode), a hatter would have to offer to sacrifice their-self. Instead you offered a plan that relies on everyone to implicitly trust your word. You are aware of what a hatters job would be, just as much as you know trust in a mafia game isn’t freely given like your asking. Ontop of that your asking for all the blues to claim to you? You have offered nothing but a plan with holes ones you knew were open. Also, if you were really the hatter, you would most likely have a bomb on me already, so are you willing to lay your life on the line Godfather? If your legit you would be able to put the dt the other person your dt confirmed in contact with the other dt liason and would let claiming possible to them. Shall we do this rationally then? Once the two DTs are connected, you are no longer needed. So you should be willing to do your job. First off, I am not asking anyone to take my word. I explained this already: I am putting myself out there with this claim. If I am red there is another town kp role who can point me out. As I said, you need to sacrifice a red to at least create some confusion. Are you willing to? Second, I have no problem dying to prove my innocence. It's an odd plan though, since if I am red the damage is already done after I have the dt names: the rest of the mafia team know them. So your "plan" does nothing in fact, even if I am red. So you're wrong on both counts. At this point I don't get why people can't see how obviously red you are. I say we lynch BloodyC0bbler for confirmation. If the other dt wants they can wait until your flip to talk to me. That is how sure I am you are red. | ||
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I am a bit surprised how sloppy BC is playing right now. Panic mode I guess... | ||
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On July 24 2010 17:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote: dude your trusting someone with a game breaking plan and assuming someone isn't going to pass information of whos been cleared (even if all you say is cleared) down a line. People screw up in pms all the time. the longer a mafia sits in with them with you the higher chance you have to screw up. BC is telling us here that the DTs should not coordinate with each other because there is a chance of a slip-up. Again, he is acting as red as can be, using his credibility to try to spread misinformation. Vote for him in today's lynch and don't tell me the Dt names until you see BC flip GF. Easy win after that. | ||
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On July 24 2010 22:52 XeliN wrote: I'm going to ##vote SouthRawrea and DoubleLynch for now. I've barely had time to skim over this thread having been away from home and have to go out now as well. I'd request people don't vote for me simply because I know this won't benefit the town, but I can understand if I'm a target due to suspicion or simply inactivity. Right. Please just choose between me and BC. No reason not to - this is where the town gets a break. One way or another: -) | ||
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On July 25 2010 00:26 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: no, he actually has a really good point - that people screw up all the time. i can't tell you how many games i've been in where the dt's manage to start a blue circle, include one too any idiots and get the role info leaked to the mafia = dead blues; or inadvertently let the mafia directly into the PM circle = dead blues your plan is solid but not error proof nor fool proof, and we can't pretend like it is the reason to be careful is that this is basically THE GAME right here. if town screws up they lose it's over, if it works then town is sitting pretty OK - let's encourage discussion. DTs talking to each other: good or bad in your view? | ||
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On July 25 2010 01:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: lol no matter what role i am i would answer this question the same way, so essentially it is a nonquestion. try again! (the answer is that it is good) Basically my worry is that you need a way to deal with false claims. The mafia are at an advantage right now in terms of kills and I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to send in one of their players as a false DT representative in order to sacrifice himself, disrupt your plan, and buy them another day Situation: two people PM you claiming to be representatives of a Detective (they don't tell you his name). Now, since you know the name of the other DT or are at least in contact with him indirectly, we know one of these guys is a liar. How do you deal with this? We would have to publicly expose the names of the representatives, in order to spend a day role checking or lynching (double lynch?), which costs the town another 2 kills before the plan goes into effect. Is there another, cleaner, plan? Now one possible way to avoid this situation entirely is to have the remaining DT contact you himself, as you are confirmed town (unless there is a real vig/hatter out there and he is really really stupid or really really inactive). However, this still opens you up to false claims from the mafia, and in this case "your" DT can check one of the claimants (don't forget about the godfather!), thereby determining the innocence of the other. Still, you lose a night before getting the real DTs in touch with each other. And then, the possibilities of what happen during the night can destroy the plan entirely. The suicide bomber comes to mind. On the whole, this is a very powerful plan which is why i would expect mafia to interfere given that they haven't lost a member yet. Since the idea of the plan has already been set in motion it seems to me that the town has little choice but to participate - consider a scenario where the actual remaining DT is too nervous to contact citizen, and then citizen gets contacted my a mafia "detective." Since only 1 claim came to citizen, can he assume the innocence of this claimant? This scenario alone shows why we basically have no choice but to follow through with the plan now, and that the remaining DT needs to follow the plan and find a way to contact citizen. Personally, I'm not sure which method of contact is superior for the plan (representative to citi or actual DT to citi). Both have pros and cons here, can anyone else shed some light? Two things: if you trust me, you trust me DT. I got checked night 1 and personally chose night 2's check target. No way for the two of them to "play me". Second, multiple claims are fine. The mafia will give up 2 people. At night we investigate one of the competing groups. We get two reds either way. Clear? | ||
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On July 25 2010 03:34 SiNiquity wrote: Well with 2 / 2 KP roles have claimed (Tricode Vigilante and Citi.zen Mad Hatter), and with no counter claims up to this point, it seems likely that they're both innocent. The only scenario I can imagine where even one of these players isn't innocent is if: 1. Mafia knew the identify of the other KP role (else this player could blow the whistle at any time). 2. Knew that the other KP role would be inactive today (maybe they posted something to this effect). As far as I can tell, the only way 1. could be accomplished is if they had already infiltrated a DT circle. This then requires 3. Knew that the DT would be inactive today (as the DT would also know 1.) I searched and it seems Misder is the only one that hasn't posted since the Tricode / Citi.zen claiming party and has hinted he would probably be inactive this go-around. I think everyone else has at least posted, though a few only dropped in some one liners just saying they were either active or trying to catch up and didn't reference Tricode / Citi.zen directly, so it could be they missed it. Am I missing anything, or barring this outlandish scenario are Tricode and Citi.zen clean? Pretty good points: the mafia would need to know that the DT AND other KP role would be AFK today, yet only 1 person has failed to post. So yes, me and Tricode are confirmed. | ||
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On July 25 2010 03:47 SouthRawrea wrote: Sorry I'm back, I slept in today. This has caught my eye though because I have no choice but to counter claim Citi.zen here as if I claim later, I will become less and less believable which is not really good to the town assuming that one of us is the mafia which is most likely. Again, sorry for not being on early enough to respond to his claim. It should be fine as long as the DTs have not yet claimed to Citi.zen. Of course you "have no choice". You guys already gambled everything at this point and this is your last chance. Now, you say you "slept in". I had no way of knowing that and no motive to gamble that you would be AFK. As I've said before, I was under no pressure what-so-ever when I claimed. You also say this: On July 25 2010 03:52 SouthRawrea wrote: So far I've been trying to slip under the radar so I don't get lynched early on or killed at night. I've actually only placed one bomb thus far as I was a little hesitant to kill place two people at risk even if I suspect them. My only one at the moment is on chaoser but that was placed yesterday after seeing that he didn't get lynched. I decided to abstain from placing a second bomb because of the first vote placed on me by Bumat... I felt threatened. :/ ## Vote Citizen for now Why "for now?" If you are the hatter (which I konw you aren't), you would 100% vote for me since you would 100% know I am lying. Yet you say "for now". Perhaps the mafia should have chosen a stronger player to do their counter-claim... but what do I know. Lynching Southrawarea will confirm my claim once and for all... The mafia already gave up many names in the past 24h, so the town is in a better position. My DT has a lot of information, whatever happens to me. | ||
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unvote ##vote SouthRawarea | ||
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AKA: I cannot get killed the second after we lynch South. | ||
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## vote double lynch | ||
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On July 25 2010 07:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Simple, i based one persons scum level based on activity, and the person I am now voting for put out an option with holes and not only has not refuted them, has barely even touched the hatter claim. Instead he is rallying on "trust" to get him through without being here. What to you is more scummy? Someone proposing a make or break strategy with the idea of "trust me" while vanishing into the night, or someone who desperately wants to live. As for hatter play, maybe you wouldn't play like that BUT I am giving a logical idea of what someone might do. Just because you wouldn't do it, nor consider it a viable option is odd as your assuming someone else is completely legit, or that people always play this game under a normal sense of "logic". Not considering it a viable option because you wouldn't do it as other players might. You know offering South hasn't saved you, don't you? You just dug the hole deeper. | ||
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I am out with the family for the evening. If you find that scummy on a Saturday I am speechless. Make the right call and this is over. The reds risked everything today: try to go after my credibility, try to question a solid plan on unfounded grounds, fake-claim right when a majority of players had correctly concluded I was telling the tuyth, try to get me lynched "to reveal information" (really to stop me from linking the two circles tonight). Just read the thread to see who did this - it's transparent as hell. | ||
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By the way: to avoid this dumb town situation, the mad hatter is actually the SECOND player my DT checked, not myself. I claimed in his place to keep them safe for one more night. Now they have all they need to accurately place their bombs. I am plain vanilla town, as you are about to find out when I flip. Remember: BC, Inf, Chaos, Tree.hugger, South. Plus whoever fake claimed. | ||
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On July 25 2010 10:00 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I really think citi.zen is red. I don't see what he gets from faking blue rather than just saying he's a mouth from the start. You're not this bad either. Supposedly. | ||
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On July 25 2010 10:05 flamewheel wrote: My name is flamewheel, and I am really confused. Also, apparently I am a kitty! Apparently so am I! If BC says it, it must be true! | ||
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On July 27 2010 06:31 Bill Murray wrote: southrawrea is at L-1 Surely not... | ||
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On July 28 2010 04:48 DarthThienAn wrote: maybe by the end of the game, but http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=116703 2400/22 > 2800/30 Oh lord, that game... | ||
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On July 28 2010 12:01 youngminii wrote: BC: I'm not scum you fools. BM: BloodyC0bbler, Suicide Bomber/Infested Terran, lynched Day 3 Also, SouthRawrea, Mafia, lynched Day 3 GF, not IT. | ||
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On July 28 2010 15:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I woulda done it as town as well. As I said, his play was horrendous there, the fact that only a minority of players saw it makes me sad. No comments since I'm dead. Just LOL. Edit: I see what you tried to do there. Slick but... you're dead. | ||
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On July 29 2010 14:06 flamewheel wrote: HOLY FUCKING SHIT LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL And you guys thought the SB was a useless role - ROFL! | ||
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On August 03 2010 12:15 DarthThienAn wrote: BM someone should be lynched, right? The bus driver. Always Lynch the drivet. | ||
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On August 03 2010 23:44 chaoser wrote: so...what's the situation? Bill played basketball yesterday. Give it a rest. | ||
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On August 05 2010 06:27 Pandain wrote: Four major events that saved mafia: 1.Inflitration of DT Subversion 2.The Xelin Attack 3.Sexy blue sniping 4.Medic protecting BC(hehe) I actually think the mafia played badly. They won for a far simpler reason: the town was terrible. | ||
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On August 05 2010 06:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Yea we really effed up the role claiming stuff but it was sorta necessary given the setup. In doing so you gave up 4 clear reds. Xelin and Proct were the only non-obvious ones. Of course, the town was blind + compensated by giving away the blue roles, horrible PM play and failure to read. This is the most lol sample, but there are many others like it: ----------------------------------------- On July 28 2010 13:58 Divinek wrote: you're kidding right? They both had clear signs of being red, south 10000x times more than bc as bc is obviously good, but yeah. There's no way you could have doubted both lol way to go town! Followed one minute later by: On July 28 2010 13:59 Divinek wrote: oh since bc knew this all of mafia knows this i might as well tell you guys im a vet No comment... | ||
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On August 05 2010 07:04 Ace wrote: lol D3 this is going to haunt you. Guess I better start updating my Winning as Scum guide. Also listen to what flamewheel said about going back to read posts: Also major props to BC on that situation with citizen. Town or scum it was definitely a pro town move to bust citizen out for lying about a role claim for multiple reasons, the most important being that no one could ever confirm him without confirming who ever he was allegedly fronting for. By the time that all got cleared up town was screwed unless somebody really sat down and thought about how the hell could rastaban be town with his fake roleclaim too ^_^. There was no lie. There was a strategic switching of two confirmed players. Nobody else was supposed to know but zeks and kris, co-planners from the start. The subsequent vote proved we were correct to make the switch. And no, what bc did was not pro town, not even remotely so. At worst the plan was supposed to cost me the lynching but reveal a mafia who would need to counter-claim. This public roleclaim "confirmation" is how 90% of games with pms end up. This is why this was a town favored set-up. If you think it's wrong for a person in that position to rc... I am puzzled. | ||
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On August 05 2010 08:15 Ace wrote: Well from my P.O.V. this is how I viewed everything. There is no way you could have been a Mad Hatter for a couple of reasons: 1.) So early in the game very slim chance you'd have both bombs placed on scum correctly. 2.) With that in mind you'd never roleclaim if you were legit - you want to DIE if your bombs are placed correctly by an accidental mafia hit or a town lynch. 3.) With both these in mind it makes no sense for you to roleclaim to the town and if you do you'd be better off asking for everyone to vote for you so you get lynched and flat out ignore whatever BC is saying. In short you weren't even acting like anyone who was a mad hatter with 2 bombs on scum would. If your bombs aren't on scum then they are on townies or just not placed at all which means Scum have every incentive to shoot you. Which means you definitely don't want to roleclaim. Looking at it in both ways like this I figured you had to be lying. But that wasn't the only problem. If you were in contact with Detectives then how is it possible that you not only verified them to be legit but also got them to verify that your bombs were placed on actual mafia? In a span of 3 game days that would be a major leap of perfect execution. From the town perspective you are now the mouth of some unconfirmed DTs in the background that only a few people know about, but can't be revealed until shit hits the fan. So if I am a townie why in the world would I trust you when I just realized you lied for what I would have figured was a small gain? You are the mouth of a hatter or detectives and even if that was true why do I care as town - you haven't given me a guilty result on anyone. Your entire argument is based on one assumption: that the hatter is more valuable for their bombs than for setting up a large circle. For my money, in this set-up, I would gladly sacrifice "correctly placing bombs" if it helped set up the circle. No hesitation. You yourself mentioned that games with PMs are broken because they create the "find the invisible invincible detective" problem for the mafia. This situation is so good for the town that it is well worth the life of a hatter any day in my book. Let me tell you about the bigger picture too. At that moment, the town had no leads. There were leaks every day through PMs, and in fact the "other" DT circle was already infiltrated. One medic was dead already. The town was fractured and, because of the leaks, each night the mafia had a better and better shot to snipe the remaining undiscovered DT. This was the reality that day. It then happened that Tricode hit BC, then claimed on the forum to be vigi. By coincidence, we had the hatter in our circle. In an IRC conversation with kris and zeks we decided to go with the hatter claim plan (Tricode was never supposed to know the details but unfortunately he had already been told zeks was the hatter). It was a joint decision and I happened to be the vanilla townie in the group. As a townie the worst that could happen is I would get lynched, which was no big deal since the mafia had me on the "to hit" shortlist anyway. If I were to get lynched there would have to be a counter-claim, so at least there would be a red in the open. I am fully at fault for not being sufficiently active the day of the claim. Reading back pages 92-onwards, the mafia never found logical "holes" in the plan - they never even invoked the argument Ace brought up (which I continue to think rests on the assumption a hatter is primarily valuable for their bombs, an assumption that is not always correct). Because they could not find logical flaws they started to sacrifice people: BC, South, rastaban. They also made a HUGE number of plainly nonsensical arguments. For example, when it was leaked that there were "multiple dt rep" claims, the mafia said "why would citi.zen not tell us? he must be red!" Of course, multiple DT rep claims should have made it 100% obvious I was telling the truth: if I was red the fake claims would have to come from townies, but why would a townie every fake claim in that situation? So fake claims to me = I could NOT be red. Whatever... there are way too many incoherent arguments that day to talk about all of them. So I don't think at all that the plan was bad, had big logical flaws, or screwed the town over. It was solid and surfaced clear reds. The town was better off for it. I am really surprised to see everyone watching this, from Ace to Ver or Incognito say it was a bad idea. And just to be clear: I think this was indeed a town favored set-up. The mafia won so they deserve 2x the congratulations for being active and having a fantastic PR machine when it counted. | ||
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On August 05 2010 10:31 Pandain wrote: That's an extremely good point, and if noticed would've saved us. I myself knew about the triple claim because you told me so I didn't look into it but I should've thought about it from this regard. *facepalm* Thus proving the valuable asset of reading. Exactly, this game you and others had 100% CLEAR EVIDENCE which you ignored. Not picking on you, just saying that the stories the town collectively swallowed is surreal to me. If Ace/Ver/Incognito actually playrd in this game I trust they would have noticed the dozens of plain bad and skewed arguments. Should have been a huge asset to the town, but they just got ignored. | ||
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On August 05 2010 10:45 rastaban wrote: Maybe it was due to the way I presented it (this being my second game) but I was not trying to say there were 3 legitimate claims, but only 2. and that you had told both legitimate claimers that there were 3 so they would be forced to reveal their corresponding DTs instead of just linking the mouths. The mafia would want this since killing the DTs would be better than trying to off the mouths. But that's just the point: if there were 3 claims, one had to be from the mafia. AKA I was not mafia. | ||
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On August 05 2010 10:58 Ace wrote: @citizen: Then your point makes sense. If it was to setup a circle then I completely understand the urgency you did it under. It still doesn't change the fact that players would assume you were lying so how did you expect to gain their trust? Thinking about the point you made where the worst thing that could happen is you get lynched (it did): Where does the town go from there?  . Was there a plan to keep the DTs invincible and hidden that just didn't pan out? There didn't even have to be a counter-claim because once you die and flip non-hatter they just move on. Iirc the town has no idea there is an actual hatter, just that they have 2 night killing roles. But I'm not assuming hatters are valuable for their bombs, more so that if you were a real hatter how are you so sure you placed bombs on scum. I actually don't even think the mad hatter role is that good :/Yes! This was what I expected to happen: the mafia will not panic and give up THREE players (this was success beyond my wildest dream). I though it more likely there would be no counter claim, relying on blue-sniping instead. Remember, without a counter-claim I would not get lynched, I'd be confirmed as the 2nd KP role. We'd just coordinate DT checks and medic protection from then on... the usual circle thing... | ||
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On August 05 2010 10:58 Ace wrote: @citizen: Then your point makes sense. If it was to setup a circle then I completely understand the urgency you did it under. It still doesn't change the fact that players would assume you were lying so how did you expect to gain their trust? Thinking about the point you made where the worst thing that could happen is you get lynched (it did): Where does the town go from there? . Was there a plan to keep the DTs invincible and hidden that just didn't pan out? There didn't even have to be a counter-claim because once you die and flip non-hatter they just move on. Iirc the town has no idea there is an actual hatter, just that they have 2 night killing roles. But I'm not assuming hatters are valuable for their bombs, more so that if you were a real hatter how are you so sure you placed bombs on scum. I actually don't even think the mad hatter role is that good :/ETA: Also while the plan was bad, the result was good and I think I agreed with that sentiment in PMs. BC and rastaban got outted, and Brownbear is correct that reading back and looking at how the other DT circle got broken Protact was the last person in the circle alive after Pandain's death. I'm not blaming you as if you lost the town the game, I just don't think Town fake claims work out in a situation where you don't have a guilty result or a confirmed townie in the open. I still don't see how the plan was bad if you concede there was an urgency to create a circle and that a potential hatter losing out on bombs is a reasonable price to pay for a circle in this set-up. In another game faced with the same situation I would do the same thing, making sure to be more active. I have read nothing to make me change my mind. Also, the fake-claim played no role what-so-ever: I could not have done anything different if I were the actual hatter. I did revealed I was green right before the flip, but by then the votes were what they were and it was better to tell the town why I was going to flip green. In fact it was a good decision, which allowed the real hatter to live 1 more night. | ||
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On August 05 2010 08:40 Incognito wrote: On another note, with citizen's plan: I'm surprised mafia didn't take advantage of one more major hole in the plan. Citizen called for a DT to use a mouth to claim to him. Unfortunately, that's a really bad move that can get mafia some forced lynches. Nobody seemed to see that mafia can claim to be a DT mouth (for a fake DT obv), then claim DT found a red. Town lynches said "red" the next day, but he flips up town. Mafia (fake DT mouth) says oh hmm my DT must be a fake, then offers a town name to lynch. Town lynches the "DT" and oops! its not a DT, whereupon the fake DT mouth finally dies. Which takes 3 whole days. Just imagine how much chaos the mafia can cause throughout that period, not to mention that you still have unresolved issues with the fake claim by citizen etc. So yes, BC blasting citizen was warranted even if he was town. But I think he would've done a more thorough job as town there if he saw things from a slightly different perspective. Regardless, there are numerous things wrong with citizen's plan, as Ace kindly pointed out. This is a non-issue. If the mafia fake-claimed to have their own DT, there would be too many DTs so we would not trust their "checks". The problem then would be how to find the fake-claim vs. the real one - and here the confirmed DT would help. Like I said, everybody talks of "many holes" but... the details are sketchy. Whatever, I will drop it. | ||
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On August 05 2010 15:59 Incognito wrote: First off, yes, what you did produced results. Which may be a reason why you think your plan is so awesome. But ignoring the assumptions of what actually happened in the game, heres whats wrong. First 3 paragraphs, yes I get it. Hatters can be legitimately used as the focus for a town circle. The problem is, they have to die to confirm themselves. Otherwise you have ppl claiming to a "hatter" who for all purposes could be a GF. Yes, you know that this is staged and that you're just being the face for the real hatter. But town doesn't know this. So town really has no reason to believe your claim. No, the fact that its open setup and town knows there's 2 KP roles doesn't confirm you when you claim to be the last KP role. Its not true that an uncontested hatter claim is 100%, because a real hatter who knows you're a fake has no incentive to claim right away. Assume citizen is mafia. Logically, as a hatter, you'd know citizen is lying. Why don't you claim? Well, you could, but that doesn't really solve anything because either of you could be lynched, and town doesn't know who is the fake claimer. The best thing for you to do is place a bomb on citizen (who you know to be 100% red) before asking everyone to lynch YOU. This eliminates the confusion of who is lying, nets 1 red, and hopefully gets town some leads. Far superior than to just claiming outright. Given that hatter has no reason to claim outright instantly, citizen is not 100% confirmed. Which gives town no reason to logically claim to you. Luckily for citizen and the town, everything was ok. But logically, this is a hole in the plan. Sorry. This would hold true if all the DT claims (2 real + 1 fake) came at the same time. But citizen claimed that he already had a DT in the bag, and he wanted the OTHER DT to come out and claim. Since nobody except citizen can confirm that there are 3 DT claims (unless citizen outs his DT), then no, citizen is again not confirmed. Another hole. If mafia fake claimed to have their own DT, then yes logically you trust none of the checks. But town would have done it anyway. Either way, a fake DT claim screws with the whole plan also because isn't the whole point of your plan to make a circle? What good is a circle when you don't know what info to trust? And don't say you had a confirmed DT just because one claimed to you. I never claimed the plan was "awesome", only that it improved the position of the town by at the very least surfacing a red counter claim. To your specific objections: 1. If you are a hatter and you see someone ask for DT role-claims, the best play is NOT be to stay silent and use your bombs, it is to prevent the role-claims right there by coming clean. Again, it's a matter of the hatter being a mafia player first and a blue role second. The bombs aren't everything -surfacing a red and protecting the DTs are well worth coming out of hiding for. Conversely, if a hatter comes out in this situation and there is no counter-claim, I would be very much inclined to trust them. 2. On the DT multiple claims: if I were red it would make no sense to fabricate multiple claims. The goal would be to make the process look "smooth" and gain the trust of the DTs. Coming up with stories about multiple claims destroys this trust, raises question marks, and increases the likelihood of getting lynched. It doesn't make any sense. 3. On your last comment - this is what you originally said: mafia can claim to be a DT mouth (for a fake DT obv), then claim DT found a red. If the mafia used a red as a "mouth" the plan already worked! Remember the goal was to generate additional information. At any rate, thanks to you and Ace for at least trying to think this through, rather than just throwing around the word "hole" without any actual arguments. | ||
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
1. Yes, I think it was optimal for DT in that situation to send one and only one of the 2 people they checked as a messenger. The benefits far outweighed the costs, at that particular junction in the game. If I were a DT seeing this unfold I would not have hesitated. 2. You can choose to believe that a red in that position would fabricate those stories, but I don't see how any WIFOM benefits outweigh the risks. 3. Additional information. But at what cost? You've outed a mafia, but you don't know who it is. Could potentially be ANY one of the mouths, or ANY one of the DTs hiding behind them. It takes too much time/effort to find which one is the correct mafia in this instance. Actually, in the scenario you brought up (single fake claim = only 2 messengers), it takes a single night check to verify both messengers. Far better odds than checking people at random, no? For things to be more complicated there need to be more fake claims, exposing more reds - not a bad outcome for town (what in fact happened). Generally, I don't think any plan to be 100% proof - such a sure win path goes against the entire philosophy of mafia games. Good plans simply help their respective team improve their odds. I continue to think this was such a plan: low cost (a green that was likely dead anyway) and high potential benefits. All dependent of course of how other players chose to respond. I would do it again in a heartbeat. What is obvious from these conversations is that while this was a pro-town play to me/zeks/kris, it was not well understood or thought through by anyone else, be it other players or observers. For this reason I needed to be active that day, and that's all on me. | ||
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For example, you say You don't even know if your "DT" is confirmed. You're just assuming it since he told you you were townie. This is inaccurate... as I explained previously I knew with a very hight likelihood my DT was clear: I personally chose the night 2 check target (zeks), and he got it right. Now, I could have been approached by a red and chosen another red to check by chance, but I liked my chances. You can believe the correct play in my position was to wait and further "confirm" my DT. The alternative was no better though: lynch someone based on inactivity or post analysis (I would have incorrectly pushed for misder or someone similar). We had no firm lead at that time and the mafia had two attempts to snipe blues every night. Zeks, kris and myself had these conversations before going public and decided the risks were well worth the rewards in this situation. And yeah, the plan, like any plan, required people to be on board, or at the very least act a bit more rationally. Again, you had to be in the game and pay attention to the details, but the other DT's circle was infiltrated, a vet randomly roleclaimed to BC in PMs and the vigi blindly trusted BC and told him everything on AIM. Even after I flipped red nobody went back to check the posts from the day - smart people had made transparently bad arguments, why else do you think I was sure BC was the GF? Whatever :-) | ||
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On August 06 2010 22:14 zeks wrote: As much as this game is about analyzing and question everything Its also about trust - laying out possibilities and probabilities. Townies ain't going to be able to win without communication and teamwork. Not everyones going to be a DT and have rolechecks to 100% confirm someone - for those that aren't DT you have to draw the line on who's reliable and who's not. I think eventually everyone should be reaching out to someone during the duration of the game. Right. Not even "trust", it's "calculated risk". This is what everyone does in every single mafia game, Incognito included. | ||
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Simple question: if you, Incognito, are a the real hatter in this game, and a red (myself for example) claims to be the real hatter, asking for PM role claims. The town seems to trust him. Do you, Incognito, come clean immediately, or stay quiet waiting to place your bomb, at the risk that the DTs and other blue roles will be exposed?What play do you think helps and/or hurts the town more? | ||
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Edit: and no, I don't view your other points as valid, I am just tired of going around in circles: we started with you telling me that you're surprised nobody had thought of this huge hole: a single mafia posing as a DT mouth would screw up up for 3 days. We went over that. You also said that Ace had exposed the other holes (read Ace's posts on the usefulness of a hatter vs. circle + red leads). We then went through issue after more unlikely issue, including claims that were factually untrue, and ended up with this: I also didn't see the harm in having 90% plans, but now I do. Town needs more sincere analysis rather than running around finding and organizing blue roles. Yeah, ok, should have waited for the sincere analysis. + Show Spoiler + FINALLY: I never thought BC was GF because he was high profile so your criticism based on choosing BM as a GF isn't applicable. I thought he was red because he was playing out of character, being totally unhelpful and posting "canned" stuff about how roles are picked without actual attempts to link it to the game. He also told the DTs to check him on day one when he made a list with 4-5 people, putting himself at the top of it. I specifically told the DT NOT to check him since if he was red he'd was the GF. When he finally became active he started making bad arguments, cementing my belief he was red. Of course, this was all probably 95% stuff (and even that only in my warped mind)... so perhaps I should have done more sincere analysis. | ||
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And do you not see the absurdity of telling me to do more behavior analysis, then dismissing it since I could not be "certain" bc was the GF? Fine, you're welcome to think it was luck, and wait in your games for 100% confirmation. I'd love to see a single case of behavior analysis that can't tautologically be called WIFOM, or one that is 100% certain. | ||
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On August 08 2010 04:15 Ace wrote: ??? I think the better scum hunters on this forum use behavior analysis to catch Mafia. Or did I misread what you meant? Of course, I did the same when arguing BC was red/GF. My point is that it's not 100% certain, ever. | ||
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1. what went down, 2. letting BC sacrifice South, or 3. lynching a 3rd party. I think option 2, the mafia option, would not have worked out better since it made BC much harder to lynch. Option 3 would yield an innocent. I don't want to name names, but the reds had given one player the nickname "mafia pet" for their play, there had been multiple leaks and multiple bad plays. I know I would not have been able to correctly pick a red in this situation at that point in time. Remember too that one medic was dead and a Dt was confirmed to the reds. So you can lecture me about the general virtues of behavioral analysis, but in my view the game was over anyway if we went another route. | ||
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You can say "you got lucky" but realistically the town played horrifically in a town favoured setup. Good self-explanatory summary. | ||
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