EPTTL Mafia XXVIII - Page 6
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citi.zen
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On August 03 2010 12:15 DarthThienAn wrote: BM someone should be lynched, right? The bus driver. Always Lynch the drivet. | ||
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On August 03 2010 23:44 chaoser wrote: so...what's the situation? Bill played basketball yesterday. Give it a rest. | ||
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On August 05 2010 06:27 Pandain wrote: Four major events that saved mafia: 1.Inflitration of DT Subversion 2.The Xelin Attack 3.Sexy blue sniping 4.Medic protecting BC(hehe) I actually think the mafia played badly. They won for a far simpler reason: the town was terrible. | ||
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On August 05 2010 06:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Yea we really effed up the role claiming stuff but it was sorta necessary given the setup. In doing so you gave up 4 clear reds. Xelin and Proct were the only non-obvious ones. Of course, the town was blind + compensated by giving away the blue roles, horrible PM play and failure to read. This is the most lol sample, but there are many others like it: ----------------------------------------- On July 28 2010 13:58 Divinek wrote: you're kidding right? They both had clear signs of being red, south 10000x times more than bc as bc is obviously good, but yeah. There's no way you could have doubted both lol way to go town! Followed one minute later by: On July 28 2010 13:59 Divinek wrote: oh since bc knew this all of mafia knows this i might as well tell you guys im a vet No comment... | ||
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On August 05 2010 07:04 Ace wrote: lol D3 this is going to haunt you. Guess I better start updating my Winning as Scum guide. Also listen to what flamewheel said about going back to read posts: Also major props to BC on that situation with citizen. Town or scum it was definitely a pro town move to bust citizen out for lying about a role claim for multiple reasons, the most important being that no one could ever confirm him without confirming who ever he was allegedly fronting for. By the time that all got cleared up town was screwed unless somebody really sat down and thought about how the hell could rastaban be town with his fake roleclaim too ^_^. There was no lie. There was a strategic switching of two confirmed players. Nobody else was supposed to know but zeks and kris, co-planners from the start. The subsequent vote proved we were correct to make the switch. And no, what bc did was not pro town, not even remotely so. At worst the plan was supposed to cost me the lynching but reveal a mafia who would need to counter-claim. This public roleclaim "confirmation" is how 90% of games with pms end up. This is why this was a town favored set-up. If you think it's wrong for a person in that position to rc... I am puzzled. | ||
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On August 05 2010 08:15 Ace wrote: Well from my P.O.V. this is how I viewed everything. There is no way you could have been a Mad Hatter for a couple of reasons: 1.) So early in the game very slim chance you'd have both bombs placed on scum correctly. 2.) With that in mind you'd never roleclaim if you were legit - you want to DIE if your bombs are placed correctly by an accidental mafia hit or a town lynch. 3.) With both these in mind it makes no sense for you to roleclaim to the town and if you do you'd be better off asking for everyone to vote for you so you get lynched and flat out ignore whatever BC is saying. In short you weren't even acting like anyone who was a mad hatter with 2 bombs on scum would. If your bombs aren't on scum then they are on townies or just not placed at all which means Scum have every incentive to shoot you. Which means you definitely don't want to roleclaim. Looking at it in both ways like this I figured you had to be lying. But that wasn't the only problem. If you were in contact with Detectives then how is it possible that you not only verified them to be legit but also got them to verify that your bombs were placed on actual mafia? In a span of 3 game days that would be a major leap of perfect execution. From the town perspective you are now the mouth of some unconfirmed DTs in the background that only a few people know about, but can't be revealed until shit hits the fan. So if I am a townie why in the world would I trust you when I just realized you lied for what I would have figured was a small gain? You are the mouth of a hatter or detectives and even if that was true why do I care as town - you haven't given me a guilty result on anyone. Your entire argument is based on one assumption: that the hatter is more valuable for their bombs than for setting up a large circle. For my money, in this set-up, I would gladly sacrifice "correctly placing bombs" if it helped set up the circle. No hesitation. You yourself mentioned that games with PMs are broken because they create the "find the invisible invincible detective" problem for the mafia. This situation is so good for the town that it is well worth the life of a hatter any day in my book. Let me tell you about the bigger picture too. At that moment, the town had no leads. There were leaks every day through PMs, and in fact the "other" DT circle was already infiltrated. One medic was dead already. The town was fractured and, because of the leaks, each night the mafia had a better and better shot to snipe the remaining undiscovered DT. This was the reality that day. It then happened that Tricode hit BC, then claimed on the forum to be vigi. By coincidence, we had the hatter in our circle. In an IRC conversation with kris and zeks we decided to go with the hatter claim plan (Tricode was never supposed to know the details but unfortunately he had already been told zeks was the hatter). It was a joint decision and I happened to be the vanilla townie in the group. As a townie the worst that could happen is I would get lynched, which was no big deal since the mafia had me on the "to hit" shortlist anyway. If I were to get lynched there would have to be a counter-claim, so at least there would be a red in the open. I am fully at fault for not being sufficiently active the day of the claim. Reading back pages 92-onwards, the mafia never found logical "holes" in the plan - they never even invoked the argument Ace brought up (which I continue to think rests on the assumption a hatter is primarily valuable for their bombs, an assumption that is not always correct). Because they could not find logical flaws they started to sacrifice people: BC, South, rastaban. They also made a HUGE number of plainly nonsensical arguments. For example, when it was leaked that there were "multiple dt rep" claims, the mafia said "why would citi.zen not tell us? he must be red!" Of course, multiple DT rep claims should have made it 100% obvious I was telling the truth: if I was red the fake claims would have to come from townies, but why would a townie every fake claim in that situation? So fake claims to me = I could NOT be red. Whatever... there are way too many incoherent arguments that day to talk about all of them. So I don't think at all that the plan was bad, had big logical flaws, or screwed the town over. It was solid and surfaced clear reds. The town was better off for it. I am really surprised to see everyone watching this, from Ace to Ver or Incognito say it was a bad idea. And just to be clear: I think this was indeed a town favored set-up. The mafia won so they deserve 2x the congratulations for being active and having a fantastic PR machine when it counted. | ||
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On August 05 2010 10:31 Pandain wrote: That's an extremely good point, and if noticed would've saved us. I myself knew about the triple claim because you told me so I didn't look into it but I should've thought about it from this regard. *facepalm* Thus proving the valuable asset of reading. Exactly, this game you and others had 100% CLEAR EVIDENCE which you ignored. Not picking on you, just saying that the stories the town collectively swallowed is surreal to me. If Ace/Ver/Incognito actually playrd in this game I trust they would have noticed the dozens of plain bad and skewed arguments. Should have been a huge asset to the town, but they just got ignored. | ||
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On August 05 2010 10:45 rastaban wrote: Maybe it was due to the way I presented it (this being my second game) but I was not trying to say there were 3 legitimate claims, but only 2. and that you had told both legitimate claimers that there were 3 so they would be forced to reveal their corresponding DTs instead of just linking the mouths. The mafia would want this since killing the DTs would be better than trying to off the mouths. But that's just the point: if there were 3 claims, one had to be from the mafia. AKA I was not mafia. | ||
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On August 05 2010 10:58 Ace wrote: @citizen: Then your point makes sense. If it was to setup a circle then I completely understand the urgency you did it under. It still doesn't change the fact that players would assume you were lying so how did you expect to gain their trust? Thinking about the point you made where the worst thing that could happen is you get lynched (it did): Where does the town go from there?  . Was there a plan to keep the DTs invincible and hidden that just didn't pan out? There didn't even have to be a counter-claim because once you die and flip non-hatter they just move on. Iirc the town has no idea there is an actual hatter, just that they have 2 night killing roles. But I'm not assuming hatters are valuable for their bombs, more so that if you were a real hatter how are you so sure you placed bombs on scum. I actually don't even think the mad hatter role is that good :/Yes! This was what I expected to happen: the mafia will not panic and give up THREE players (this was success beyond my wildest dream). I though it more likely there would be no counter claim, relying on blue-sniping instead. Remember, without a counter-claim I would not get lynched, I'd be confirmed as the 2nd KP role. We'd just coordinate DT checks and medic protection from then on... the usual circle thing... | ||
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On August 05 2010 10:58 Ace wrote: @citizen: Then your point makes sense. If it was to setup a circle then I completely understand the urgency you did it under. It still doesn't change the fact that players would assume you were lying so how did you expect to gain their trust? Thinking about the point you made where the worst thing that could happen is you get lynched (it did): Where does the town go from there? . Was there a plan to keep the DTs invincible and hidden that just didn't pan out? There didn't even have to be a counter-claim because once you die and flip non-hatter they just move on. Iirc the town has no idea there is an actual hatter, just that they have 2 night killing roles. But I'm not assuming hatters are valuable for their bombs, more so that if you were a real hatter how are you so sure you placed bombs on scum. I actually don't even think the mad hatter role is that good :/ETA: Also while the plan was bad, the result was good and I think I agreed with that sentiment in PMs. BC and rastaban got outted, and Brownbear is correct that reading back and looking at how the other DT circle got broken Protact was the last person in the circle alive after Pandain's death. I'm not blaming you as if you lost the town the game, I just don't think Town fake claims work out in a situation where you don't have a guilty result or a confirmed townie in the open. I still don't see how the plan was bad if you concede there was an urgency to create a circle and that a potential hatter losing out on bombs is a reasonable price to pay for a circle in this set-up. In another game faced with the same situation I would do the same thing, making sure to be more active. I have read nothing to make me change my mind. Also, the fake-claim played no role what-so-ever: I could not have done anything different if I were the actual hatter. I did revealed I was green right before the flip, but by then the votes were what they were and it was better to tell the town why I was going to flip green. In fact it was a good decision, which allowed the real hatter to live 1 more night. | ||
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On August 05 2010 08:40 Incognito wrote: On another note, with citizen's plan: I'm surprised mafia didn't take advantage of one more major hole in the plan. Citizen called for a DT to use a mouth to claim to him. Unfortunately, that's a really bad move that can get mafia some forced lynches. Nobody seemed to see that mafia can claim to be a DT mouth (for a fake DT obv), then claim DT found a red. Town lynches said "red" the next day, but he flips up town. Mafia (fake DT mouth) says oh hmm my DT must be a fake, then offers a town name to lynch. Town lynches the "DT" and oops! its not a DT, whereupon the fake DT mouth finally dies. Which takes 3 whole days. Just imagine how much chaos the mafia can cause throughout that period, not to mention that you still have unresolved issues with the fake claim by citizen etc. So yes, BC blasting citizen was warranted even if he was town. But I think he would've done a more thorough job as town there if he saw things from a slightly different perspective. Regardless, there are numerous things wrong with citizen's plan, as Ace kindly pointed out. This is a non-issue. If the mafia fake-claimed to have their own DT, there would be too many DTs so we would not trust their "checks". The problem then would be how to find the fake-claim vs. the real one - and here the confirmed DT would help. Like I said, everybody talks of "many holes" but... the details are sketchy. Whatever, I will drop it. | ||
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On August 05 2010 15:59 Incognito wrote: First off, yes, what you did produced results. Which may be a reason why you think your plan is so awesome. But ignoring the assumptions of what actually happened in the game, heres whats wrong. First 3 paragraphs, yes I get it. Hatters can be legitimately used as the focus for a town circle. The problem is, they have to die to confirm themselves. Otherwise you have ppl claiming to a "hatter" who for all purposes could be a GF. Yes, you know that this is staged and that you're just being the face for the real hatter. But town doesn't know this. So town really has no reason to believe your claim. No, the fact that its open setup and town knows there's 2 KP roles doesn't confirm you when you claim to be the last KP role. Its not true that an uncontested hatter claim is 100%, because a real hatter who knows you're a fake has no incentive to claim right away. Assume citizen is mafia. Logically, as a hatter, you'd know citizen is lying. Why don't you claim? Well, you could, but that doesn't really solve anything because either of you could be lynched, and town doesn't know who is the fake claimer. The best thing for you to do is place a bomb on citizen (who you know to be 100% red) before asking everyone to lynch YOU. This eliminates the confusion of who is lying, nets 1 red, and hopefully gets town some leads. Far superior than to just claiming outright. Given that hatter has no reason to claim outright instantly, citizen is not 100% confirmed. Which gives town no reason to logically claim to you. Luckily for citizen and the town, everything was ok. But logically, this is a hole in the plan. Sorry. This would hold true if all the DT claims (2 real + 1 fake) came at the same time. But citizen claimed that he already had a DT in the bag, and he wanted the OTHER DT to come out and claim. Since nobody except citizen can confirm that there are 3 DT claims (unless citizen outs his DT), then no, citizen is again not confirmed. Another hole. If mafia fake claimed to have their own DT, then yes logically you trust none of the checks. But town would have done it anyway. Either way, a fake DT claim screws with the whole plan also because isn't the whole point of your plan to make a circle? What good is a circle when you don't know what info to trust? And don't say you had a confirmed DT just because one claimed to you. I never claimed the plan was "awesome", only that it improved the position of the town by at the very least surfacing a red counter claim. To your specific objections: 1. If you are a hatter and you see someone ask for DT role-claims, the best play is NOT be to stay silent and use your bombs, it is to prevent the role-claims right there by coming clean. Again, it's a matter of the hatter being a mafia player first and a blue role second. The bombs aren't everything -surfacing a red and protecting the DTs are well worth coming out of hiding for. Conversely, if a hatter comes out in this situation and there is no counter-claim, I would be very much inclined to trust them. 2. On the DT multiple claims: if I were red it would make no sense to fabricate multiple claims. The goal would be to make the process look "smooth" and gain the trust of the DTs. Coming up with stories about multiple claims destroys this trust, raises question marks, and increases the likelihood of getting lynched. It doesn't make any sense. 3. On your last comment - this is what you originally said: mafia can claim to be a DT mouth (for a fake DT obv), then claim DT found a red. If the mafia used a red as a "mouth" the plan already worked! Remember the goal was to generate additional information. At any rate, thanks to you and Ace for at least trying to think this through, rather than just throwing around the word "hole" without any actual arguments. | ||
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1. Yes, I think it was optimal for DT in that situation to send one and only one of the 2 people they checked as a messenger. The benefits far outweighed the costs, at that particular junction in the game. If I were a DT seeing this unfold I would not have hesitated. 2. You can choose to believe that a red in that position would fabricate those stories, but I don't see how any WIFOM benefits outweigh the risks. 3. Additional information. But at what cost? You've outed a mafia, but you don't know who it is. Could potentially be ANY one of the mouths, or ANY one of the DTs hiding behind them. It takes too much time/effort to find which one is the correct mafia in this instance. Actually, in the scenario you brought up (single fake claim = only 2 messengers), it takes a single night check to verify both messengers. Far better odds than checking people at random, no? For things to be more complicated there need to be more fake claims, exposing more reds - not a bad outcome for town (what in fact happened). Generally, I don't think any plan to be 100% proof - such a sure win path goes against the entire philosophy of mafia games. Good plans simply help their respective team improve their odds. I continue to think this was such a plan: low cost (a green that was likely dead anyway) and high potential benefits. All dependent of course of how other players chose to respond. I would do it again in a heartbeat. What is obvious from these conversations is that while this was a pro-town play to me/zeks/kris, it was not well understood or thought through by anyone else, be it other players or observers. For this reason I needed to be active that day, and that's all on me. | ||
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For example, you say You don't even know if your "DT" is confirmed. You're just assuming it since he told you you were townie. This is inaccurate... as I explained previously I knew with a very hight likelihood my DT was clear: I personally chose the night 2 check target (zeks), and he got it right. Now, I could have been approached by a red and chosen another red to check by chance, but I liked my chances. You can believe the correct play in my position was to wait and further "confirm" my DT. The alternative was no better though: lynch someone based on inactivity or post analysis (I would have incorrectly pushed for misder or someone similar). We had no firm lead at that time and the mafia had two attempts to snipe blues every night. Zeks, kris and myself had these conversations before going public and decided the risks were well worth the rewards in this situation. And yeah, the plan, like any plan, required people to be on board, or at the very least act a bit more rationally. Again, you had to be in the game and pay attention to the details, but the other DT's circle was infiltrated, a vet randomly roleclaimed to BC in PMs and the vigi blindly trusted BC and told him everything on AIM. Even after I flipped red nobody went back to check the posts from the day - smart people had made transparently bad arguments, why else do you think I was sure BC was the GF? Whatever :-) | ||
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