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On July 29 2010 06:08 Protactinium wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 04:39 zeks wrote:
I require an analysis on Infundibulum. I believe he is a strong candidate for tomorrows lynch.
The other lynch is guaranteed to be Pandain - given that I live past tonights hits
So anyone know whether mafia has 3 kills to use ? 2kp + IT?
I now have all blue claims tyvm
If Pandain flips miller - Protact is scum. I believe thats all the people Subversion has told right? lol
I mean who else would've leaked out Subversion's role By this, you are assuming that there was indeed a leak. I highly doubt many (or even any) of you have read the PMs I posted between Subversion and myself and Pandain and myself, but I knew that Subversion was Detective from Day/Night 1 and worked to protect him from the second day lynch. Please go back and check that. As I already said, I wanted Subversion to check me to verify me in his circle, but he was undecided between Amber[LighT] and BloodyC0bbler, and ended up checking Amber[LighT], which in retrospect seems like the good move since BloodyC0bbler turned out to be the Veteran Godfather. Once again, if you have not done so, please go read the PMs that I have posted somewhere back in the early 140s. Why would it be beneficial to me, as Mafia, to leave Subversion alive for the first three nights? If Pandain is not the leak (and he's been checked as Mafia now?) then there is no leak.
The PM is most likely Pandain being mafia, duh.
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He's claiming Infested Terran, duh.
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Btw Xelin, you're not allowed to edit your posts.
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I wouldn't mind a popsicle..
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Okay if I die tonight I'ma buy myself a popsicle.
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I wanted a popsicle 
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XeliN the Suicide Bomber has exploded
Zeks the Mad Hatter is dead
Siniquity the Medic is dead.
Lakrismamma the detective is dead
InFuNDiBuLuM and bumatlarge, the harmless townies are found dead
Let us extract what happened. I know for a fact that the DT was not checking anyone on this list. Hence, Lakrismamma must have been targeted by Mafia. Does this mean Mafia knew Lakrismamma was DT through a leak? I doubt it, I'm guessing they just had an awesome stroke of luck.
I would think that Zeks was bombed while Siniquity protected him. Now this makes me want to bang my head against a wall. I mean COME ON, it was so obvious that Zeks would be bombed, why would you protect him? Oh well, what's done is done.
I also know Zeks had a bomb on Infundibulum and I am guessing the other bomb was on bumatlarge. This is literally a worst case scenario. However, this leaves us with one missing kill. Mafia has 2 KP at the moment (correct me if I'm wrong), hence there should be 7 deaths. Where did the other one go? If the medic protected Zeks, that means a Vet must have been hit, or Mafia abstained from using all their KP which I doubt.
If my assumptions are correct, can the Vet that was hit claim to me? Hell, why doesn't everyone claim to me, I think I'm a confirmed townie by now. What sucks is that I was going to get the identity of the DT once Zeks died but since that plan's gone, uh oh.
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This is odd. Zeks told me he had placed a bomb on Infundibulum and Amber[light]. I wonder why Amber didn't die? Maybe he switched to bumatlarge at night.
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XeliN the Suicide Bomber has exploded
Zeks the Mad Hatter is dead
Siniquity the Medic is dead.
Lakrismamma the detective is dead
InFuNDiBuLuM and bumatlarge, the harmless townies are found dead
Alternate theory. XeliN exploded on Zeks and he was the only one to die. His bombs killed off Infundibulum and bumatlarge. The mafia targeted Siniquity and Lakrismamma with their KP.
This theory means that there's.. a 99% chance that there was a leak within the DT group. This also means scum knows the identity of both Vets, since Zeks knew them (and told me too).
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[QUOTE]On July 02 2010 07:57 Bill Murray wrote:
1. tree.hugger
2. brownbear
3. youngminii
4. chaoser
5. divinek
6. rastaban
7. Amber[LighT]
8. pandain
9. ~OpZ~
10. d3_crescentia
11. Misder
12. Pyrrholuxia
13. Tricode
14. protactinium
Out of this list, there are 4 people that I am absolutely sure are town aligned. That leaves 10 people left. By using this double lynch today, there's a 1/5 chance that we hit mafia. It is crucial that we hit at least 1 mafia today because that will lower their KP to 1. If we don't hit any scum today, then there will be 10 people left tomorrow with 3 Mafia and no double lynches. Miss two more times and it's lights out for town. So while it's not GG if we miss today, it doesn't bode well for us at all if they're allowed to keep using their 2 KP.
There's a good chance Pandain is mafia and so he's my leading suspect. I propose that we lynch chaoser since he's pretty much next on my list. I know I was wrong about Infundibulum but we don't really have anyone better to lynch (unless you can come up with one), and chaoser was one of Zeks's leading suspects too. Aaaaand with that:
##Vote Pandain
##Vote chaoser
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God damn I hate that stupid hanging quote tag.
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I'm more suspicious of tree.hugger than Misder. Misder was always kind of inactive but tree.hugger was a lot more active before. Then when all the real shit started happening he stopped posting so...
Chaoser comes first though.
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On July 29 2010 15:22 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 15:16 youngminii wrote:
There's a good chance Pandain is mafia and so he's my leading suspect. I propose that we lynch chaoser since he's pretty much next on my list. I know I was wrong about Infundibulum but we don't really have anyone better to lynch (unless you can come up with one), and chaoser was one of Zeks's leading suspects too. Aaaaand with that:
##Vote Pandain
##Vote chaoser Man why not use my list? So colorful.... Bit angry right now :/. Like seriously, what is wrong with letting people defend themselves? By the time I wake up I am becoming more and more sure I will be lynched without the chance to defend myself. And youngmini, this means you do what I say and analyze. dont just vote
Pandain please just look at it from our perspective. The DT checked you and you flipped red. The odds of you being mafia is through the roof. There's no one else that's as 'confirmed' as you so you are by far the best possible lynch. The DT check trumps any argument you have to say, so you're better off using your time to help the town if you really are townie. This is playing to our win condition, you are playing to save yourself even though (I'll say it once again), you are the best possible lynch.
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On July 29 2010 15:26 Protactinium wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 15:16 Divinek wrote:
ohh pandain this i do REALLY want to know
proct told you sub is DT
why did proct tell you? no way in hell you were confirmed so either you're lying or proct is a retard Firstly, I needed his vote off of Subversion. He was thinking of voting Subversion at the time, and it is no good to have a Detective lynched. In doing so, I also thought of a gambit: If Subversion was Detective and Pandain was "let into the circle", if Subversion died then Pandain was at fault. Town, early on, should always be willing to trade a Detective for a Mafia, especially in this format where having one dead Detective means making it that much easier to sort through counter-claims. I am not mentally retarded, as you are half-way implying Divinek. Please do not call me so.
Lol wtf trade Mafia for Detective early game? Really?
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On July 29 2010 15:27 youngminii wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 15:26 Protactinium wrote:On July 29 2010 15:16 Divinek wrote:
ohh pandain this i do REALLY want to know
proct told you sub is DT
why did proct tell you? no way in hell you were confirmed so either you're lying or proct is a retard Firstly, I needed his vote off of Subversion. He was thinking of voting Subversion at the time, and it is no good to have a Detective lynched. In doing so, I also thought of a gambit: If Subversion was Detective and Pandain was "let into the circle", if Subversion died then Pandain was at fault. Town, early on, should always be willing to trade a Detective for a Mafia, especially in this format where having one dead Detective means making it that much easier to sort through counter-claims. I am not mentally retarded, as you are half-way implying Divinek. Please do not call me so. Lol wtf trade Mafia for Detective early game? Really?
Okay I can't ignore this. This is possibly the dirtiest post in the history of Mafia. I can't get over how you said you would trade a Detective for a Mafia as if that was a good thing. I don't know whether or not this is attributed to you simply not understanding the role of DT or you trying to excuse your actions as Mafia.
Either way, this post warrants a FoS.
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On July 29 2010 15:40 Protactinium wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 15:31 youngminii wrote:On July 29 2010 15:27 youngminii wrote:On July 29 2010 15:26 Protactinium wrote:On July 29 2010 15:16 Divinek wrote:
ohh pandain this i do REALLY want to know
proct told you sub is DT
why did proct tell you? no way in hell you were confirmed so either you're lying or proct is a retard Firstly, I needed his vote off of Subversion. He was thinking of voting Subversion at the time, and it is no good to have a Detective lynched. In doing so, I also thought of a gambit: If Subversion was Detective and Pandain was "let into the circle", if Subversion died then Pandain was at fault. Town, early on, should always be willing to trade a Detective for a Mafia, especially in this format where having one dead Detective means making it that much easier to sort through counter-claims. I am not mentally retarded, as you are half-way implying Divinek. Please do not call me so. Lol wtf trade Mafia for Detective early game? Really? Okay I can't ignore this. This is possibly the dirtiest post in the history of Mafia. I can't get over how you said you would trade a Detective for a Mafia as if that was a good thing. I don't know whether or not this is attributed to you simply not understanding the role of DT or you trying to excuse your actions as Mafia. Either way, this post warrants a FoS. Are you joking? You find Mafia, you get them lynched. Mafia thrive on information, and Detectives do not live forever. The chance of finding Mafia early on is slim; yes, the chance of Detectives getting hit is also a small number on top of a large number, but that's assuming you have good Detectives who can dodge snipings. When I learned to play Mafia, I was always drilled with the lesson that a Detective for a Mafia is good, and as I already said this setup is conducive to trading blues for reds. You already have the numbers. If somebody false claims Detective, like has been done this game, you can more easily counter-claim if there's one Detective, not two. Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 15:31 Divinek wrote:On July 29 2010 15:26 Protactinium wrote:On July 29 2010 15:16 Divinek wrote:
ohh pandain this i do REALLY want to know
proct told you sub is DT
why did proct tell you? no way in hell you were confirmed so either you're lying or proct is a retard Firstly, I needed his vote off of Subversion. He was thinking of voting Subversion at the time, and it is no good to have a Detective lynched. In doing so, I also thought of a gambit: If Subversion was Detective and Pandain was "let into the circle", if Subversion died then Pandain was at fault. Town, early on, should always be willing to trade a Detective for a Mafia, especially in this format where having one dead Detective means making it that much easier to sort through counter-claims. I am not mentally retarded, as you are half-way implying Divinek. Please do not call me so. i wasnt half way implying it i was straight up saying it, and no trading them early is terrible it is fine as the game progresses and we have more info to go off of, but early game dt checks are the only solid info town has. cause if you throw your first dt to the sharks, you have to god damn well pray mafia doesnt hit the next one with their two kp a night In a normal setup Mafia would have 3 KP with 6 Mafia members. Factor that into your calculations when you think about how efficient this Mafia has been at sniping blue numbers, and even moreso when you factor in the fact that your Detective has fears he may have checked the Godfather Night 1. You swap a Mafia member for a Detective night 2 in this setup. You get a confirmed townie, a Mafia member outed, and any possible "defense" happens on there. Besides, I was working to save the Detective from getting lynched. Let's not forget what happened Day 2 when Subversion's head was on the chopping block. Think about it from the Mafia's perspective as well: that early in the game, one town member out of 24 is not worth trading for 1/6th of their team. Town circles form, but town circles are easily broken into.
There's no choice for me but to bang my head on my desk.
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On July 29 2010 16:02 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 15:59 Divinek wrote:On July 29 2010 15:54 rastaban wrote:
Uhg, just caught up, that was a horrible night. At least my read on Bumatlarge was correct.
I agree that Pandain is the way to go for our first vote, but I will hold off voting for him to see what defense he has. Really though I don't see how any argument would make it worth the risk of keeping a red alive, especially since we can drop their KP to 1 if we get one more.
Now who should we look at for the second lynch? So far Chaoser and Tree have both been put forth. I think I will go back through there posts and see if I can get a read on either one. please consider misder also! though i think both of your above are very good options as well Your right, I had forgotten he was listed as well. He seems to have been pretty quiet as well.
Oh yeah I've been meaning to ask this for a while now.
Why did you claim you had a DT ages back? That was obviously a lie with no good purpose.
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On July 29 2010 17:08 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 16:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On July 29 2010 16:33 rastaban wrote:On July 29 2010 16:10 youngminii wrote:On July 29 2010 16:02 rastaban wrote:On July 29 2010 15:59 Divinek wrote:On July 29 2010 15:54 rastaban wrote:
Uhg, just caught up, that was a horrible night. At least my read on Bumatlarge was correct.
I agree that Pandain is the way to go for our first vote, but I will hold off voting for him to see what defense he has. Really though I don't see how any argument would make it worth the risk of keeping a red alive, especially since we can drop their KP to 1 if we get one more.
Now who should we look at for the second lynch? So far Chaoser and Tree have both been put forth. I think I will go back through there posts and see if I can get a read on either one. please consider misder also! though i think both of your above are very good options as well Your right, I had forgotten he was listed as well. He seems to have been pretty quiet as well. Oh yeah I've been meaning to ask this for a while now. Why did you claim you had a DT ages back? That was obviously a lie with no good purpose. I posted the answer a while ago, here is the link. On July 29 2010 16:01 Protactinium wrote:On July 29 2010 15:50 Divinek wrote:
i see what you're saying and in a situation where there was 3kp a night it seems more reasonable to do it early, but to only have 1 dt after night 1 can get pretty painful(especially with suicide bomber as he can never go public). But i suppose this game shouldnt be the best example as our blues have been getting rollled To be honest, when I was thinking about this through since it was a clutch situation in trying to keep Subversion from being lynched, I left the Suicide Bomber out of all my calculations. Still though, I've always been taught it's best to target Mafia early on, since that at least forces them to defend themselves / have their teammates help defend them, which is what brought SouthRawrea and BloodyC0bbler out in this game. With 2 KP Mafia is still deadly, since Medics are pretty ineffective. At this point, I remember something: d3_crescentia, you said you were protected by a Medic night 1. However, Night 3 only one person (Subversion) died and nobody claimed a hit. I'm assuming a double stack. However, if you were hit and protected then you're as good as town confirmed, since no Vigilante tried to hit you (why would they night 1)? After that, as a focal town player you should have been forming circles. I'm not saying you haven't, but why haven't you been posting other than here and there? And if you had a circle, logically it should have included some people in it. Maybe I'm being completely played by PM Land, but it seems you've been too quiet for somebody of your "stature." Looks like I may need to check D3's posts as well... post PMs please Does anybody actually read the stuff I post??  Here they are I put them up earlier when Pandain requested them here is the LinkAlso I wanted to respond to the last part of this. Show nested quote +On July 29 2010 16:10 youngminii wrote:On July 29 2010 16:02 rastaban wrote:On July 29 2010 15:59 Divinek wrote:On July 29 2010 15:54 rastaban wrote:
Uhg, just caught up, that was a horrible night. At least my read on Bumatlarge was correct.
I agree that Pandain is the way to go for our first vote, but I will hold off voting for him to see what defense he has. Really though I don't see how any argument would make it worth the risk of keeping a red alive, especially since we can drop their KP to 1 if we get one more.
Now who should we look at for the second lynch? So far Chaoser and Tree have both been put forth. I think I will go back through there posts and see if I can get a read on either one. please consider misder also! though i think both of your above are very good options as well Your right, I had forgotten he was listed as well. He seems to have been pretty quiet as well. Oh yeah I've been meaning to ask this for a while now. Why did you claim you had a DT ages back? That was obviously a lie with no good purpose. I didn't lie, I merely passed on the information I believed to be correct. This game we have seen BloodyC0bbler, Zeks, Citi.zen, Pandain, SouthRawea, and Subversion all lie and it has caused us no end of trouble. In fact you also came forward without a DT because you were lied to as well. This is why you lynch all liars.
You know what's funny, I don't believe BC false claimed to you. I believe you're scum and you pulled that out of your ass after you saw that you were in a tight spot because your DT claim went wrong. You saw the BC and SouthRawrea were both royally fucked and you knew bussing them was the obvious way to go. So instead of simply bussing them like a normal person, you pinned BC for your fake DT claim. Notice how he doesn't respond?
##Unvote Chaoser
##Vote rastaban
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I expected you to respond differently, I was just checking your reaction to a bit of pressure. Still, I think there's quite a possibility you're mafia so I'll just leave my vote on you. Not expecting people to follow through though, we'll probably see tree.hugger or chaoser lynched and that's fine by me.
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Wait a sec, did BM mis-label the Infested Terran role? So Sin protected Xelin and got killed? (Also, why would you protect Xelin, come on he claimed IT). Anyway Zeks told me he had a bomb on Amber[light], he probably moved that off to someone else.
Anyway yeah if the whole Sin protecting Xelin thing and getting killed is true, then I suppose all my theories go bust.
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EPT
