EPTGodfather Mafia - Page 40
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Chezinu
United States7448 Posts
| ||
|
Chezinu
United States7448 Posts
On July 03 2010 01:55 Chezinu wrote: Chezinu's post: + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2010 12:34 Chezinu wrote: I cannot believe that this town believes that my behavior is disruptive. You people hardly even know who I am. I have not even spoken a word. If silence causes chaos, then let my voice create order. To began the task of creating a like-minded community that can overthrow the evil schemes that Kira (Godfather) has ordained as "justice" we must organize ourselves and create a model for the whole town to follow. I think L is a good candidate to lead our investigation for no one knows who this man is or where he comes from. Just like our adversary, Kira.. If you were the Godfather, you would not chose the obvious nor the least likely recruits, but you would choose names that blend in as your average joe. With that said, let us not dwell on the past but on the present and future. 1. No time to act crazy, it is against the rules and hurts town because your death tells nothing. 2. We have new roles and that brings up the standard questions: Are all roles used? How many blues? - I didn't see anything stating that this was a semi-open game. 3. Plans? Should Lovers and Mason roleclaim to rush the mafia while there numbers are low? Should we use this tactic to narrow down the possibility of who the GF could be before mafia numbers grow and the chances of lovers becoming corrupted by the power to kill? Or is this move way too risky? But if we kill the Mothership containing the queen, there will be no reproduction. So we need not focus on the pawns, if we kill one today another will appear tomorrow. If we do dare to go after the pawns, we must hope and pray that the pawn themselves kill the godfather without knowing it themselves. With that in mind, many townies will pretend to be godfather in hopes that the mafia pawns whether it is for selfish reasons to get the mafia to leave them alone or as an act of conserving their special role or perhaps to be a town hero in some crazy strategy. This behavior will hinder the town in finding the real godfather who may or may not contain scummy behavior. Secret codes to indicate that you are the godfather may need to be banned in order to prevent chaos. DTs should focus on finding the GF, that is your primary objective. Coroner please stick around, for we need you to dig up some graves and examine the bodies. Or perhaps just stick around to examine the unburied bodies.. Not sure what we are going to do with the dead as of right now. Hopefully, we'll end this game before it gets too messy. For 30% fun: Did you or did you not use the queen of hearts to decide who would be Juliet? + Show Spoiler + Was it the King of hearts or the jack of hearts for Romeo? On July 01 2010 12:48 Chezinu wrote: You missed the key point. We should focus more on killing the Godfather than the pawns. With this thought, the idea of having lovers and mason roleclaim confirming each other could benefit the town and lead to a quick victory. Roleblocker can protect a lover from dying. Town has the advantage early game in this setup unlike other games. We must stop the mafia before their numbers out grow us! I think this is insightful information, perhaps in your eyes I am just stating the obvious. But new setups, one must state the obvious for the betterment of the town so that we can all work together with one mind. On July 01 2010 13:47 Chezinu wrote: we have no medics.. On July 01 2010 14:05 Chezinu wrote: As of right now Town has the advantage: Godfather: Recruited one person and doesn't know their role. Thus can't really coordinate. Traitor: Knows nothing. Recruit: Knows nothing. What we know as town: We have lovers... I did not intentionally fish Darth into revealing this information.. but know town knows! So if we have free masons then we know that it is possible that if lovers/masons confirm each other via role claim 4 proven innocents right off the bat. This reduces finding traitor,recruit, and GF to 3/16 chance. Only GF can fake claim lover/mason by confirming recruit and hoping that he plays along. To prevent this, true masons/lovers can pm each other to and post exact same time. If we want to make this move, we have to do it today while mafia numbers are low and lack communication/information. With Jailer/Roleblocker available we can extend the lives of lovers/masons. Having 4 confirm townies to start the game would only benefit the town. I would suggest masons to claim first. I can't see any fault with this plan. This plan will work if free masons exist. So if you are the masons please consider this plan. On July 01 2010 14:19 Chezinu wrote: I just realized that lovers/masons could possibly have blue roles.. That could make things more interesting.. On July 01 2010 14:22 Chezinu wrote: I would leave roleclaiming up to the masons to decide. They know what roles they have and have far greater knowledge than we do. I just want to make sure the masons know their options. On July 01 2010 14:41 Chezinu wrote: nope! His recruits will probably know since all recruits know each other. So they have to find a way to inform the GF if his plan failed. On July 01 2010 14:54 Chezinu wrote: Ok, I probably need to go to bed as well.. I might pop up again tonight because this game is addicting. + Show Spoiler + Just to mess with the mafia, because going to bed taunting mafia and messing with them is fun. What if they are lovers roleclaim masons? What if masons roleclaim lovers? hehe What if we have both masons and lovers and they both roleclaim "couples"? What if tomorrow two recruits roleclaim "couples" only to later be checked by a DT that causes them both to die? On July 02 2010 07:58 Chezinu wrote: Top suspects atm: ##mafia Korynee ##GF Yellowink -- was thinking but admitted accusing me was a cheap shot. So, I'm going to leave you alone for now. Top innocents: 1. Bill Murray I know this may sound crazy, but I was thinking Kory was mafia before Bill started attacking her. I don't think Kory is the GF, but is more likely a recruit. Reasons: She is not male and therefore can't be godfather and she was active before the silence game. GF wouldn't want to risk having an inactive. Other biases, Kory has been attacking everything I say.. Bill on the other had has been flattering me, so obviously I'm going to side with Bill. Note: the only serious thing in this post - I agree with Bill Murray that Kory has been acting strange. But I doubt Kory is GF but more likely recruit. I think I'm going to go through the list of players now and try to find a good lynch candidate. On July 02 2010 08:03 Chezinu wrote: Wow, everyone seems to be on the same page as me this game. I post that we need to focus on GF at the same time other people do. I post mason plan though different same time as L. Now, someone posts that the likely-hood Bill and Kory are low and are going to look through the player list to find a GF candidate. Conclusion: either everyone became crazy like me which isn't true. Or I'm finally playing sane this game. On July 02 2010 08:07 Chezinu wrote: Ok just to note, Confirmed by mod: Browney can't be GF because he didn't have access to thread and we have lovers because he used to queen of hearts to pick Juliet and the queen of clubs for Romeo. I can't help but play with logistics.. At least kory isn't host, lol. On July 02 2010 08:41 Chezinu wrote: Ok, I still haven't narrow down the list yet for GF, I have to go soon and don't think I'll finish the list. So, I'm just going to state the obvious since it is a new setup. Almost Facts: 1. We have lovers 2. Browney is unlikely GF since he has no access to forum 3. If we have masons that claim and then lovers claim afterwards we would temporarily have 5 confirm innocents. If one would count oneself as innocent then finding traitor/recruit/GF from the remaining list would be 3/14 chance. If we take into consideration inactives that will be modkilled the chance of killing mafia would increase more. I've been busy, but here is my current list of potential lynch candidates for today: 2. BrownBear 3. YellowInk 6. Divinek 8. citi.zen 9. L 11. Hesmyrr 12. youngminii 13. bumatlarge 14. Korynne 15. lakrismamma 16. Abenson 18. AcrossFiveJulys 19. rastaban As for my plan about both masons claiming, followed by lovers claim (of course lovers could have claimed masons as well - and they could have claimed first to mess with the mafia etc..). It would reduce the above list narrowing down who the possible GF could be. By "rushing" the mafia, I meant that we snipe the GF as fast as possible before he could build up an army. We kill him now while there is no mafia coordination. Of course, rushing means that we may expose ourselves if we aren't successful. But we wouldn't expose ourselves too much since Jailer/roleblocker can cover our masons/lovers to reduce chances of losing them. One factor that I didn't initially think about is that a masons/lovers may have a special role, which in that case the non-special mason may be the only one willing to roleclaim. That's why I left the choice for the masons to decide for themselves. Updated Hit list: 2. BrownBear 3. YellowInk 6. Divinek 8. citi.zen 9. L 11. Hesmyrr 12. youngminii 13. bumatlarge 14. Korynne 15. 16. Abenson 18. AcrossFiveJulys 19. rastaban | ||
|
youngminii
Australia7514 Posts
| ||
|
YellowInk
United States578 Posts
On July 04 2010 13:58 citi.zen wrote: I had come to this conclusion before the game had started. I didn't say as much because I didn't want to let on that mafia could play so aggressively. This is why I objected to L's plan. This is why I don't trust zeks. To be honest, I havn't figured out a counter strategy to aggressive mafia play. Ignoring roleclaims gets us nowhere - I'm not about to lynch zeks or a cold claiming DT either. The only way we seem to be able to win is if we get lucky enough to lynch the godfather within the first few days. After this, chances seem really really slim.I think in this set-up fake claims are hugely damaging in this set-up general, since we don't learn the alignment of the dead. For the sake of the argument - let's say the mafia claim DT and say "OMG - I found the GF!!". Then we lynch that (innocent) player but... don't know if they were red, unless we use the coroner the next night. If we use it, the coroner loses their power, so the 2nd time a mafia goon does this we can't even verify it at all. Does that mean the mafia can do this every single day in principle, leading to perpetual mis-lynches? Even if we correctly kill the supposed DT as well (a 2x lynch for example), the GF would be safe since we're wasting the town KP on goons. The whole set-up seems fucked up, unless I just don't understand something obvious here. Maybe I just need sleep. There's a big difference between a game with a cult that can recruit, but not kill, where the cult leader dies when they try to recruit mafia... and a cult that can recruit, gets KP, and doesn't die to night hits or poor choice of recruit. This is why at the start I felt there really wasn't much chance for town unless we have multiple free masons (or get super lucky). From DTA's earlier description of how he set up the game, I believe we only have one free mason pair and one set of lovers, though. Since the idea of aggressive mafia play is clearly out in the open now, lets discuss. How can we counter if it mafia plays this way? | ||
|
BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Honestly, without coroner I think we might be screwed. | ||
|
Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On July 05 2010 01:28 BrownBear wrote: We're going to have to very very closely watch what every single player posts, and the second someone slips up, lynch them. Simple as that. Honestly, without coroner I think we might be screwed. there's always the chance he was actually the traitor trying to mess with us and just said coroner that or we pray we started with 2/lucked out with dream catcher | ||
|
citi.zen
2509 Posts
I will vote for Chez next. His 12 player suspect list serves no purpose but to try to shift attention from himself - I see no reason not to include his name on that list. Then he tells the mafia to fake claim but to be sure not to kill him. He always plays crazy, but I'd feel like a moron if I ignored his behavior based on that. | ||
|
Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
On July 05 2010 01:32 Divinek wrote: there's always the chance he was actually the traitor trying to mess with us and just said coroner that or we pray we started with 2/lucked out with dream catcher What benefit does traitor gain by fake-claiming coroner though? Mafia will not know who they killed either, so their plans will just as be confused as much as us (as in, coroner fakeclaim messes up # of alive coroner count in mafia side & they stop looking for coroner). Honestly one-time coroner and perpetual no role reveal is pretty lol, but we must plan under the worst case scenario that there are no more coroner power available. From next night the detectives are able to use their investigative abilities: I strongly recommend detective to reveal himself only when he have Godfather result (not Goon result). With claimed power roles so hard to verify, claiming just to announce mafia (which will just be recruited) is suicide. Detectives can also rule out that mafia player from the lynch list since the priority of the town, as always, should be to lynch Godfather for now. In case of claim conflict, I see no viable plan to counter so except good old hard method of analytical scumhunting. | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
In case of claim conflict, I see no viable plan to counter so except good old hard method of analytical scumhunting. This and luck seems to be the only real choices we have. Keep in mid though we can double lynch if needed. I had forgot the GF has to lives so hoping the mafia kill him isn't going to be helpful. The one defense I see against the mafia claiming to be DT is that they don't know who the GF is. they could be giving us the GF without realizing it. And I doubt the GF would attempt that since he would be targeted by the real DT the next night for sure. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On July 05 2010 00:54 YellowInk wrote: I had come to this conclusion before the game had started. I didn't say as much because I didn't want to let on that mafia could play so aggressively. This is why I objected to L's plan. This is why I don't trust zeks. To be honest, I havn't figured out a counter strategy to aggressive mafia play. Ignoring roleclaims gets us nowhere - I'm not about to lynch zeks or a cold claiming DT either. The only way we seem to be able to win is if we get lucky enough to lynch the godfather within the first few days. After this, chances seem really really slim. There's a big difference between a game with a cult that can recruit, but not kill, where the cult leader dies when they try to recruit mafia... and a cult that can recruit, gets KP, and doesn't die to night hits or poor choice of recruit. This is why at the start I felt there really wasn't much chance for town unless we have multiple free masons (or get super lucky). From DTA's earlier description of how he set up the game, I believe we only have one free mason pair and one set of lovers, though. Since the idea of aggressive mafia play is clearly out in the open now, lets discuss. How can we counter if it mafia plays this way? There's a reason why I wanted the masons to come out on day 1; On day 1, there is a single goon and a single godfather. According to the rules, they aren't in contact. Either the goon or the Gf fake claiming into the position of mason essentially does so alone. If the real masons see this, not only do they know they've caught a mafia member, but they also know that they can 100% confirm their innocence by revealing the second mason pair if their claim is contested. Worst case scenario, one dies for the goon on day 1, leaving 0 mafia or a dead GF on night 1. Assuming a 0 sized mafia team means 0 kp (which makes sense given how night 0 played out), mafia would essentially have accomplished nothing, thrown away a kp, giving the town a free correct lynch and they would have given the town's RB and DT an extra day to sniff them out, and the hatter an extra day to lay bombs. It is absolutely 0% possible for mafia to claim into masons on day 1 unless one of the following happens: 1) there are no masons. 2) the masons are incredibly stupid and stay silent. On the other point; how can you counter aggressive mafia play? Well it seems pretty simply; you need to kill the GF. This is why I've been saying that day 3 is our final stand. Mafia can gambit wayyyy too much into the final days if we give them a cushion. Additionally the easiest way is to call for full roleclaims on a certain day coupled with double lynches and potentially intentionally lynch the hatter to take out as many people with conflicting claims as possible when we're at that apogee of information. We might have 1 or 2 annoying recruitments after that fact, but being able to channel 6 town controlled hits into a group 9-11 people who are highly likely to include the GF gives us a fighting chance. Its not a fantastic idea, but frankly I don't see better options. | ||
|
YellowInk
United States578 Posts
Having a single verified town doesn't do us all that much good anyhow. The risk vs reward of putting any significant trust in this individual never seemed greater than the benefit of keeping the mason concealed and the jailkeeper not committed to that target. So I still stand by my initial reaction to zeks' claim. I don't buy it. | ||
|
DarthThienAn
United States2734 Posts
| ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
| ||
|
Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
| ||
|
BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
L, did you read this? I laughed a bit when I did. No one counterclaims vs Zeks. You yourself analyse that all rational reactions to a fake claim would involve a single or double counterclaim. You then state you're still suspicious of Zeks. You then state that the town having 2 known 100% confirmed townies sharing 50% medic protection chance is horrendous for us, and that it benefits mafia hugely because they got lynched on day 1. You also surmise that we'll roleblock the worst possible target for roleblocking when the information is known. The only almost-even move would be a traitor fake claim, and even then he just trades himself for a mason identity instead of trading himself for up to a full double lynch and coroner by stirring shit up during a double lynch. Uncharacteristically bad logic from you :/. I'll assume it has to do with a hangover because I have one too. | ||
|
BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
But it is time to give up on that idea. I think at this point, there's no doubt zeks is mason. However, I really do want him to post that friggin coded message already. | ||
|
citi.zen
2509 Posts
| ||
|
citi.zen
2509 Posts
On July 05 2010 05:06 Bill Murray wrote: ok im going to unvote then I never thought Korynne was red, but you supposedly did, so I am curious: why the change of mind? has your analysis of Korynne changed, or do you view Ace as so much better than Korynne that keeping him alive is worth the extra risk? | ||
|
Chezinu
United States7448 Posts
| ||
| ||
