TL Mafia XXVII
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 09 2010 12:08 flamewheel wrote: Incognitooooooooooooo! I got you another one :3 (Love me) hey you asshole you better not have told mafia to kill me ! :D | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 09 2010 13:29 Incognito wrote: PMing is allowed this game. Sane DT - is like a regular alignment cop. Insane DT - alignment cop that gets flipped results Paranoid DT - Always receives Mafia from checks Naive DT - Always receives Town from checks Medic variants removed. What's the probability of being each? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + I thought you weren't bitter sir xD | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
1) detective rolechecks a miller and announces that he found a mafia. waste lynch on townie, then waste lynch on detective. pretty much GG. 2) mafia can sacrifice one of their own to fake being detective and announce an incorrect role check result (claim a townie role checked as mafia). medic the first night will probably be asked to protect the "detective", so the mafia get their pick for whom to kill without worrying about the medic block. then, the next day the town will have to decide whether the detective roll checked a miller or he's mafia. It's debatable whether this would be a net gain or loss for the mafia, as they could have the "detective" screw with the town for more than one day. 3) What if all 4 mafia fake blue roles? We don't know how many blue roles there are, so we wouldn't be able to say whether or not the blue list is inflated (and god forbid townies might fake blue roles too) and they could cause some serious havoc (hatters/vigs won't be targetting any blues obviously, so all their kills will be on townies. Also, real detective roles would be checking townies/millers every night (assuming they don't check blues... checking blues would be stupid) which would be bad since that increases their odds of role checking millers. I mean the plan would be fun and all, but unless you can come up with good responses to these problems (and give a shitload more detail on how blues are going to be asked to use their powers), your plan is garbage L. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 10 2010 22:07 L wrote: Gotta go to work so only a quick recap: 1) DT needs to find sanity regardless of any plan we use. We also wouldn't kill the DT after seeing that the target he calls flips miller. REALLY poor logic on your part seeing as the uncertainty exists because of the role. I haven't specified a use for the DT (yet), so worrying that we'll hit a miller is pretty hilarious. 2) Ok. Let them lie. If we have a legit DT, we trade a DT for a mafia member on day 1, which is pretty tits given how weak our DTs are. 3) Then we end with 9+ blues and we know people are lying and that the majority of our townies are legit. Mafia are now in a position where they need to lie about their night actions and lie about them correctly. I say no one visited, say, citi.zen because I watched him? Well, fuck, a medic or DT did. Or shit, a tracker watched me and saw that I didn't visit anyone. I mean, your objections aren't flaws at all. There ARE flaws, but those aren't any of them. Ok my 1) point was wrong, for some reason I had it in my head last night that when you lynch a miller they flip townie, my bad. For 2), there is also the possibility that the DT is paranoid but town aligned, how do you deal with that? For 3), the whole point is that we have no idea how many blues there are. I thought you'd be smart enough to get this, but apparently not. What if 1 or 2 mafia infiltrate the blue ranks? If we get suspicious about the inflated blue count and focus all of our attention on the blues, we'll be wasting a ton of lynches and faulty role checks while the mafia are picking blues off. If all 4 mafia go into the blues, we have no way to know whether there are 0,1,2,3, or 4 mafia in the blues. We can only guess, and its too risky to just start lynching blues 1 by 1 in case there really are a lot of blues. So L posts a clearly risky plan, and when I jump in to criticize the first thing a couple people do is flag me as mafia. GREAT play guys. Also L if you know of flaws then post them so we can work out potential solutions until people jump the gun and start RCing. Besides, if you know your plan had flaws then why did you post it in the first place? I advise NO ONE to RC until this shit is worked out. L has NOT filled in the details of his plan. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 11 2010 05:49 Chezinu wrote: Everyone PM me and talk about anything! riddles are fun.. Now, I shall say something to make this thread active: This game is dead. 1010 0101 0100 0100 1011 0010 0101 0001 0001 0111 0110 1101 0100 0011 0111 0010 1110 1110 | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Welcome back LuDwig-!! | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 11 2010 07:51 tree.hugger wrote: Also, anyone who doesn't roleclaim at this point is injuring the town. As I said earlier, we either mass roleclaim and thereby defend ourselves through numbers, while forcing the mafia into an awkward spot, or we half roleclaim, leave our blues exposed, while still giving the mafia room to hide. Which means that we need people to roleclaim pronto, (L, for example should set an example), and we need to pick a lynch target. Obviously the medic should protect one of us blues, and give the mafia some doubt as to who to target. I agree that at this point we are committed to this potentially shitty plan because our "tracker" and "detective" have RC'd. I don't mind role claiming townie for myself, at least. If anyone can think of a good way to put the brakes on the plan even though a couple "blues" have RC'd then please post how to do so, otherwise let's go forward with the plan even though it sucks because it's worse to just give the mafia a few blues and then stop. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 11 2010 08:11 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: You are suggesting that town members lie, this creates confusion this is a big no. As for this plan, It has already started and I think its worth it for the same reasons Radfeild said. I am a Townie. rebirth no, not all town members lie, only those mentioned in L's post, which will make it difficult for mafia to target specific blues. i'm still unsure how we can get useful information out of them, though, and L has been sitting with his thumb up his ass and not filling in the details of the plan. L's post: + Show Spoiler + Hmm... Semi-open setups are tricky, since we know what roles there can be but not the number. However, since there is a given number of mafia we should be able to roughly estimate what kind of blue powers (and/or extraneous mafia powers) there are in the game. 17 people and four mafia, so the mafia comprise 23.5% of the town's population. Normally in Incognito's games, the mafia comprise a flat 20% of the total population and blue roles are adjusted based on that, and given the fact that there are more varied roles than in these more 'standard' games, I'd assume we'd have some of those. Let's see... Incognito likes Mad Hatters. I can't remember if that is his or Qatol's (perhaps both?) favourite role, but most likely there will be one Hatter. Obviously, it'd be ludicrous to say that there isn't a medic, though the question is whether or not there's one medic or two. I'm split between the numbers, since either could work... A self-saving medic is way more powerful, and that would mean there would probably only be one medic. However, Incognito has ninja'ed in the fact that medics cannot save themselves, so two medics is probable. Between the Watcher/Stalker and DT there's more likely to be a DT. Watchers and Stalkers are cute roles, and I'd count them as half a blue role. There'll probably be one of either. There is a Veteran, most likely. Since it is a passive blue role, I'd count it as a half. Because you can't have too many blue roles without balancing Mafia powers as well... There will probably be a Mafia-aligned Day vigilante, and perhaps a town-aligned one. If there are two medics (or two of anything) I'd find it more likely that there'd be a roleblocker. Probably to throw off the DT, there will be one, at most but probably not, two Millers. Of course, this is all conjectural based on how I would potentially balance a game. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
And people calling me mafia (RoL I'm looking at you) because I mistakenly thought for a second that lynched millers flip townie are fucking retarded. I've been in games where millers were lynched so I never should have thought that, was just a temporary mistake (wasn't a matter of not looking at the rules). So who are we going to lynch today? Guess I'll start with voting for RoL since he started off accuse-happy and claimed townie. I'm always up for lynching MooCow though :D | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 12 2010 03:01 LuDwig- wrote: [/blue]haahah quite easy to claim Detective when we are sending not claiming people to a corner .__. How to discover who is lying? The plan is quite easy! [blueTracker checks this night me or moocow. If one of us is lying tracker will knows that we have visited nobody during the night! So we will know for sure who is lying MooCow...i suppose you have not problem following this plan right? No, this won't work. What if one of you are the roleblocker? I believe the tracker would see you visiting somebody. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 12 2010 03:18 MooCow wrote: No offence to you LuDwig but is anyone else reading LuDwig posts with a bit of an Italian accent with his grammar and wordings or is it just me? Well I'm sure as hell going to now lol | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
It seems safe to say that mafia spread themselves out in the non-RC'd / townie / blue list. So we probably have 2 mafia that role claimed townie, 1 that claimed blue, and 1 that has not role claimed. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
I'd be happy to change my vote from meeple to jspazz if meeple gets his pansy ass in here and opens his pansy mouth to give a non-pansy excuse for his pansy behavior. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Also, can we get some godamn activity in here? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
And why yes MooCow thank you for pointing out how much of a fucking gentleman I am. I am a motherfucking KIND and HELPFUL mafia player. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Changing my vote from meeple to redtooth as per radfield's above reasoning. If meeple is lying we can probably figure it out later. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 06:41 LuDwig- wrote: Rolechecked AFJ. Now i am going to bed. I will tell you the result when I will wake up (admin doesn't PM me back yet) lol guess I get to be the sacrificial townie. (suppose it would be in the interest of the town to lynch me no matter what I role check as if the town trusts ludwig) | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 08:18 citi.zen wrote: Hold on - a roleblocked townie is announced he got blocked? yes? I got a PM from incognito last "night" saying that I've been role blocked. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 10:34 L wrote: Well, we don't need to wait on him 100%, but I've got a few ideas floating around that I'd like a bit more info to flesh out before proposing them. L, please post your ideas before we get information about the night actions back. Then, we will know whether you are a legit townie or a mafia who is trying to bend the evidence one way or the other. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 11:03 L wrote: Well, derp derp. You were supposed to be checked by our DTs. If we had a hatter or a vet in our DT group, our watcher should know who he is and be able to confirm the other DT as legit. He should also be able to figure out who the roleblocker is if he checked you if you aren't bullshitting. Basically the question here is whether or not we're killing you today and I'd kinda like information regarding who's lying and who isn't. I'd kind of like to hear the various things you are thinking about before you have evidence to work with, because you are either a dickwad or an intelligent mafiso, and i'd like to be confident that you are just a dickwad. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
L, sure, I'm looking forward to what the watcher has to say. If he did watch me he'll find that I was visited by a mafia and even be able to give us who it was. But that would mean the mafia fucked up massively last night by role blocking me given that they knew I was going to be watched... | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 12 2010 11:01 meeple wrote: Yup... totally welcome this. I'll flip a coin to watch tree.hugger or Ludwig Shit looks like meeple didn't watch me last night unless he changed his mind after this post. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
MooCow(Detective) Meeple(Watcher) Radfield Ohn johnnyspazz AcrossFiveJulys RebirthOfLeGenD L Flamewheel redtooth Vivi57 Foolishness ~Opz~ cit.izen Still have Chezinu left to role claim. Since it hasn't been posted in awhile, here's our RC list. I would like to point out that if all of our blues RC'd according to the plan, it means we only have 4 out of 5 of the following roles in the game: tracker, watcher, detective, veteran, mad hatter. (see below). So most likely MooCow/Ludwig are detective/veteran (or vice-versa). Meeple is either hatter or watcher. + Show Spoiler + Medics obviously lie and vet/hatter claim DT/Watcher respectively so that mafia are 50% screened in their attempt at hitting any of our info roles The mafia's choice of hitting tree.hugger was smart because we didn't specify a role to lie being tracker so they knew they could take him out if he wasn't medic protected. Once again, good fucking job L. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
#155: comments that inactivity is bad for the town #165: says he supports roleclaiming but doesn't want to be the first #172: claims townie, then says he has no powers with a sad face. (exagerating being disappointed about being townie?) #247: says he forgot about the game (excuse for inactivity), pushes for more role claiming #249: says that everyone should role claim, not half, or it hurts the town #288: Explains his reasoning for voting for jspazz. says he is voting for him because jspazz voted for him with no explanation, and because jspazz conviniently said he'd be offline until the vote deadline (first reason is bad, that's not a mafia tell, second reason is better). Says he is voting for jspazz mainly because we lack a better candidate. #289: says meeple and chezinu are not suspicious #320: in response to meeple's concerns about the plan for the night's actions, he says we will "see what happens and go from there." This is a terrible response. You should always think about the different scenarios that might come up so you can adjust your plan if it has serious problems. Summary: ohN has been a relatively inactive poster but not inactive enough to arouse suspicion thus far. He has been a supporter of the role claim plan but has not offered any real content regarding its implementation. 4th Vote for jspazz (out of 6 total votes). I'm keeping my eye on him. RebirthOfLegend #232: promises activity #237: supports plan "for the same reasons radfield said". Disagrees, however, with blues lying to mask their roles (vets claim detective, etc) because it creates confusions and "is a big no." RC's townie. #240: more words saying blues shouldn't lie about their role. claims that L never once said to lie about your role when he indeed did (see page 13 of thread). #257: points finger at me for a mistake in one of my posts (for some reason I thought for a second that millers lynched flip vanlilla townie instead of miller) and says that's mafiaish, citing his previous game where he played mafia and didn't read the rules carefully. LOL's at so many greens role claiming (well no shit there are going to be excess greens... what are mafia going to claim, red?). #260: says the plan isn't that bad Summary: RoL has a strange post history. All of his non-useless posts are in the same time period. The only real things he's done are advocate the plan (actually, he advocated the imaginary plan where blues DO NOT lie about their roles, then ended up advocating the real one later anyway) and arouse suspicion about me. 3rd to vote for jspazz. He also didn't bother to defend himself after I voted for him on day1. My read on him is an accuse-happy townie who has bad reading comprehension and/or not been keeping up properly with the thread. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
I had very little opinion on the matter that would've meant anything. It's irrelevant. If you really want to know, I'm incredibly busy because I'm graduating this weekend. Once it's sunday I'll be active as normal, but I told Incognito if I were to play I'd be a bit inactive the first day or so. I glad you're trying to seek out inactive people and figure things out, but you need to concern yourself with more pressing matters, like which of the blues that claimed so far is lying. Would you really believe 4 blues would claim all on the first day all based off of some one paragraph plan that wasn't even thoroughly discussed? As a townie, you should be more concerned about the current situation. Worry about me in 2 days (real life days I mean). Of course you can still PM me, just don't expect a response in a timely manner for another 48 hours. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: who do you think should be lynched today? why are you so quiet? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
The possible scenarios right now are MooCow and ludwig are both detectives or 1 of MooCow, Ludwig are detective 1 are veteran. I didn't include the scenario where 1 or both are role claim faking because it doesn't seem likely that a mafioso would risk there being exactly 1 detective or exactly 1 veteran but not both (otherwise there'd be 3 role claimed detectives and clearly 1 would be lying). I also didn't include the other clearly improbable scenarios. MooCow detective, Ludwig detective: The only way I would turn out to be mafia is if both of them are either naiive or insane. This seems improbable. 1 detective, 1 veteran: If I'm mafia, this would imply that we have one naiive or insane detective. We won't gain much from lynching me because if I flip townie that will only say that our detective is either naiive or sane. Furthermore, we won't know whether to trust ludwig or moocow's findings because we won't know which is the detective unless they both decide to reveal their roles. This undesirable situation is a result of L's rather myopic plan. I hope this justifies going after other targets besides me today (hopefully going after someone that seems suspicious from their voting and posting behavior) since lynching me would provide minimal help and waste a townie and a lynch. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 17:00 LuDwig- wrote: ahh this post makes me smile. Why? Because you are not saying:"Mafia we will find you" but "Please don't lynch me!" I really understand you! XD I *think* what you are trying to say is that I am defending myself rather than going after mafia. If this is the case, then I would ask you to read my last 20 posts in this thread and then see if you still feel that way. I am just trying to show that lynching me at this point is irrational, and trying to push the town into a more productive direction. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 20:15 Radfield wrote: You seem to have left out one obvious option. You are mafia, with the roleblocker on your team, possibly even the roleblocker. You know your back is up against the wall and that you're a prime lynch target for day 2, so you don't roleblock anyone to gain some credibility. This seems quite likely to me, as it makes absolutely no sense for the mafia to have roleblocked you. Smacks of desperation. I already addressed that possibility in an earlier post. Sure, it's possible from your viewpoint and I encourage you to keep it in mind. Again, I have to disagree with your analysis. First off, we have a tracker, watcher, medic and two dt's, and a minimum of SIX days to find only 4 mafia in a 17 person game. That is insanely unbalanced for the town even if mafia have a godfather, roleblocker and dayvig. How do you balance that out? By putting in some nasty sanities for the DT's. You think it unlikely, but with a tracker and watcher around, I think it VERY likely that both are DT's have funky sanities. One being useless(naive) and one being insane sounds about right. Even assuming that some people are lying about their role, it still fits that we would have an insane DT. False. We know we have (had) a tracker and that is it. We may not have a medic or any of the other blue roles. Not to mention that I don't really trust Moocow at this point. No offense moocow, but a DT role is the perfect place for a mafia to hide, because you can never be held accountable "oops guys, I guess I'm naive". I agree with this. So how is lynching me going to help, then, genuis? Especially since we have no way of knowing whether MooCow or Ludwig are actually detectives? It is very important that we lynch AFJ, because we really need to start narrowing down the sanities. The entire plan was to lynch AFJ regardless of what the alignment checks came back as. The fact is, AFJ STILL seems completely scummy to me and worthy of a lynching anyways. Not to mention that he's done a ton of posting, so if he flips red we can glean a lot of info from his posts. There was no such plan from the beginning, it was only suggested (by me actually) when ludwig said he'd be role checking me. What about my posting is screaming scummy to you radfield? That being said, we should still be doing post analysis on people. I went through the thread last night and a few people jumped out a me, but we can talk about them once AFJ is out of the way. ##Vote: AcrossFiveJulys (for effect) I have no idea why you are so deadset on lynching me. All that is going to happen is I flip green and you still won't have a clue about which of ludwig/moocow are detectives and/or their sanities (they could be naiive or insane). Think logically about what kind of information will be obtained and whether that is worth wasting a townie and a lynch. If people are convinced that I'm mafia due to my posting and voting behavior, then fine, that's enough reason to lynch me. But doing so to reduce uncertainly about our "detectives" is nonsense. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 04:37 flamewheel wrote: Another kicker—we can’t be sure if meeple actually watched or not, since he did not announce results. But I want to assume he’s the Watcher. If he isn’t, I’m sure we can tie him down in the future. Just woke up, nice analysis flamewheel, just want to comment on this: meeple claimed that he watched ludwig and now knows the identity of the medic. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 01:52 ~OpZ~ wrote: He was role blocked. How many of you realized townies were pm'd if they were role blocked. I mean it seems kinda weird he would be role blocked, but why isn't it possible? Better question is why didn't the watcher watch him anyway? (Whoever said we didn't know if a med was in the game, meeple said the med visited ludwig last night). I've been thinking about why I was role blocked, and it makes more sense now. Clearly if the watcher watches the person who gets role blocked, we catch a mafioso. With 4 confirmed blues, and the mafia not knowing for sure which blue is which (so they couldn't just role block the watcher), it makes it very risky for them to role block one of the blues for fear that our watcher will happen to watch the role blockie. So they decided to just try to role block the medic through an educated guess (does my posting behavior come across as medicy?). Now, they did take a risk in hitting tree.hugger, since if meeple was watching tree.hugger he'd have seen who killed him. But I think they didn't want to take a high risk - low reward with their role blocker. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=AcrossFiveJulys after you jizz your pants upon reading my posts, replace my name with your desired searchee | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=-1&u=AcrossFiveJulys&gb=date | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 07:43 Foolishness wrote: Does anybody else feel like this post was scripted? It reminds me of PYP mafia when Radfield pretended to be saved by a medic even though he had no way of knowing he was saved (and he turned out to be the Assassin). Starting with the positives, it's good that you claimed to be role blocked as that potentially reveals your innocence. It's good that yes, this could mean your death will help us figure out the detectives alignment. But now I'm really curious. Of particular notice to me was the time stamps on the posts: Assuming Incognito didn't tell you night action until day post went up, you busted out your claim there in a whopping 9 minutes. That seems to me like you were waiting for the post to come up before posting your claim of being roleblocked. It was late in my lab and I was f5'ing the thread in between analyzing my experiments. I'm not denying you got roleblocked, I'm saying you're mafia, and the mafia purposely roleblocked you to try to save you. Consider this, Ludwig announces that he's rolechecking AFJ, for whatever reason. Ludwig seems to be a spur-of-the-moment kinda guy, so let's think about what happens. Assuming AFJ is mafia, the mafia team upon reading Ludwig's post is going to be all "shit shit shit what do we do". They know MooCow still had to send in his hit as well so that puts them in a very very awkward scenario. With two detectives, AFJ is going to get crosschecked. If one of the results turn up mafia, then he's going to almost certainly die, no matter what his alignment in. Mafia know this, so they try to come up with a plan to try to save AFJ. The way they can do that is by roleblocking AFJ. AFJ can claim in the thread that he got roleblocked, and even if detectives give him a mafia, he will be spared (hopefully). so in this scenario where I'm mafia and the mafia is trying to figure out how to save me, the only way this plan would actually save me is if both rolechecks come up green? Sounds like a great plan to me. Which seems great and dandy except the mafia have absolutely no reason to roleblock AFJ. The mafia know AFJ is getting cross checked, why would they bother to roleblock him? Especially considering four blues claimed in the thread. Even if the mafia predecided "k we're sniping tree.hugger no matter what" there's no reason why they would not choose to roleblock meeple. Meeple, is the only one who claimed watcher, and thus the mafia can be assured that the identity of the roleblocker will not be revealed if they roleblock him. The only way things could go badly if there's another watcher (seems unlikely given 2 cops) or if tree.hugger doesn't die and happens to track the roleblocker. Seeing as how the plan was for him to track one of the two DT's, or possibly meeple, that wouldn't happen. the mafia clearly didn't want to take the risk that meeple actually wasn't the watcher. maybe they thought the town's plan was to bait the role blocker into blocking meeple when meeple isn't actually the watcher. Given that the mafia chose not roleblocking meeple, which would have been nearly 100% safe for them to do, tells us that something is wrong. Plus, out of all people, why block AFJ? Does anyone think he's done anything to merit being a possible blue. Except it doesn't make sense for the mafia to suspect that. Nor does it make sense to roleblock the person the DTs are checking. You put a lot of emphasis on this point in your first post and in this one. You knew that you were getting roleblocked so you say this sort of thing to prove your innocence. You say "Of course, there is the possibility that if I was mafia, mafia could waste a role block on me to create this exact situation to prevent me from being lynched" to try to prove yourself innocent. Did you really think that situation through in under 9 minutes after you received the PM that you got roleblocked? It took me a while to realize that something was odd about the roleblock and that the explanation that you are mafia is the only thing that makes sense. You being able to process all that through in 9 minutes is quite impressive... when you spend every day working in machine learning research analyzing a simple situation like "why did i get role blocked last night" in 9 minutes isn't exactly a huge feat. Most people if they got roleblock would probably not claim immediately and be like "shit shit what do I do? Mafia want me dead...shit shit". I would expect said person would not claim until after multiple people have posted saying "yes, if you got roleblocked, please claim in the thread". Jumping the gun and posting you got blocked is wayyy too odd. Well, people were already accusing me of being mafia on day 1. I thought it would be pertinent information, and that releasing it right after the night was over would make it obvious that I didn't just come up with it out of nowhere in the middle of day2 (like now) when people are on my case and it seems likely that I'll get lynched. People have already outlined the scenario that none of the DTs are normal. Given that there's already a watcher and a tracker, don't you think a normal DT would be a bit too good for the town? I don't think the results of the checks mean anything given that AFJ was roleblocked. I also never recall it being the plan for the watcher to watch the person who was getting checked by the DT. The plan was for the watcher/tracker to look at the DT's (or tracker to track the watcher). I don't remember reading anything about "k, DT's and watcher all go on same person". Overall, you getting roleblock makes no sense given the amount of roleclaims in the thread. You posting yourself getting blocked 9 minutes after day starts (and not to mention posting something that feels very scripted) does not follow a typical innocent attitude. I'll comment on this since you just posted it as well: The problem here is that the mafia could have roleblocked meeple without much worry. Sure, meeple could claim he was roleblocked, but he's the only one who claimed watcher. Furthermore roleblocking meeple would have halted our finding out about the innocence of our two DTs. I'm sure the mafia is happy about killing tree.hugger, but their choice not to roleblock meeple has apparently given rise to a powerful town circle of blues. Was it really worth it for them to waste their roleblock like that? Definitely not. you're just repeating yourself here. see my response above. It's a bigger risk for the mafia to try to kill tree.hugger than to try to roleblock meeple (or tree.hugger for that matter). As outlined before, the only way roleblocking meeple would turn out bad is if tree.hugger decided to be stupid and track some random guy. Knowing tree.hugger that's highly unlikely. Hitting tree.hugger is incredibly risky though. He has a good chance of being medic protected, and if he got protted the a big town circle would form. And although the plan was for meeple to watch a DT, meeple could have easily justified watching tree.hugger. (imagine this, day 2 started and meeple says "hey guys so I decided to watch tree.hugger, person X visited him so he must be mafia"). I'm pretty sure we would kill that person without much hesitation. Thus the mafia took a big risk in hitting tree.hugger; a risk that is definitely much bigger than roleblocking one of the claimed blues. And no, your posting is not medicy, it's mafiay. If you're indirectly trying to claim, best do it now. I'm not the medic. I told you in the PM you posted to keep PMing me. You didn't do that. I also sent this to AFJ upon finding he didn't respond to my PM: ----- No response to my earlier PM? How sad...I really thought you were innocent but now I'm second guessing my self... ----- And he still didn't respond. And I sent this awhile ago and keep expecting a response sooner or later given that he's posting in the thread. Why would he ignore me if he was innocent? Yeah how inviting your response was: + Show Spoiler + I had very little opinion on the matter that would've meant anything. It's irrelevant. If you really want to know, I'm incredibly busy because I'm graduating this weekend. Once it's sunday I'll be active as normal, but I told Incognito if I were to play I'd be a bit inactive the first day or so. I glad you're trying to seek out inactive people and figure things out, but you need to concern yourself with more pressing matters, like which of the blues that claimed so far is lying. Would you really believe 4 blues would claim all on the first day all based off of some one paragraph plan that wasn't even thoroughly discussed? As a townie, you should be more concerned about the current situation. Worry about me in 2 days (real life days I mean). Of course you can still PM me, just don't expect a response in a timely manner for another 48 hours. Wow it's so mafiaish that I didn't respond to someone who said they wouldn't respond in a timely manner for another 48 hours! I really don't know about you foolishness. It seems to me like you are trying to play off the suspicions that have been on me all game (and which somewhat dissipated earlier) to get me lynched. This is a mafia, a game of many unobservables, so placing someone into a role isn't that difficult, especially when you have a large collection of their posts (I bet I've been the most active in the thread) and an interesting event involving them at your disposal (me getting role blocked). That being said, you've come up with a rather unlikely scenario for me being mafia. Also, why is everyone so willing to believe that both of our detectives are naiive or insane? If anything, it seems like it would be most likely that at least one of the detectives is sane. The people championing the possibility that both detectives are broken should be analyzed, because that is classic "confuse the town" mafia behavior. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ##vote AcrossFiveJulys to help confirm sanities. I may or may not muster up enough energy to do a pbpa of citizen/foolishness/meeple/moocow later so this vote is also here incase I don't make it back in time. People, if you are just looking at the last page of the thread, vote for me ONLY if you think I'm suspicious as mafia, NOT if you think it's going to reduce detective uncertainty. If I get lyched and flip green, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are naiive or sane. If I get lynched and flip red, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are insane or naiive. So guess what? This doesn't help much; either way they could still both (or the 1) be naiive. The only way to know for sure the detective(s) sanity after that will be if the detective happens to get back a red role check and you lynch them. Banking on that happening soon isn't smart. This is not a good plan for the town, people. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 09:30 Chezinu wrote: uhh, We still have 24 more hours.. Isn't day 48 hours this game? wait a minute it isn't night.. oh jesus I thought it ended tonight. nevermind. move along nothing to see here folks... | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 10:36 L wrote: Foolishness, I have a problem. Your last defense is essentially: I hate people who give the town information. and I play anti-town every game (ignoring the fact that you've been mafia for the vast majority of your recent games). That's pretty fucked. I've finished the thing I mentioned earlier, so I'm pretty solid on the idea that we shouldn't kill you for today. That said, if we kill AFJ today and he flips red, you are 100% our next target. Uhhhh care to explain why lynching foolishness makes sense if I were to flip red? o_O | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 10:38 Radfield wrote: This is simply not a good argument. Yes, it takes minimum two nights to figure out a detective's sanity, we all realize that. Night one we narrow it down to two possibilities. If you flip red, then we know that the detectives are either insane or naive. Now we get them to check someone who they trust to be town-aligned: A green result means they're naive, a red result insane. Bingo, we have the alignments down. It takes two nights, but it's worth it. Our medic and watcher should be able to scare off the mafia from taking down the blue roles(tree.hugger ) so we'll probably still have everyone on board by that time. Or, we don't lynch you, learn nothing about the sanities, and basically disregard our two detective roles as useless. Yes, a MINIMUM of 2 nights to learn the alignment of the detectives assuming they are telling the truth (this is a big assumption). After I flip green, that minimum is reached only if at least one of the detectives happens to get back a red rolecheck on the 2nd night. What is the likelihood of that? A better plan is to wait until a red role check is returned. Then, that red is lynched. If they flip green, they you can lynch me because you'll know one of the detectives is insane. If flip they red, then you'll know I'm clean. Tell me, genius, what disadvantage approaching it that way gives. Since mafia KP does not decrease (KP is always 1) there is no advantage to lynching me now rather than once red rolechecks come back (unless I'm the best mafia candidate the town can come up with). We should be assuming that detectives are sane but checking to make sure they are as we lynch people, not the other way around. Coming up with strategies that assume detectives are less likely to be sane (I'm looking at you, L, and radfield) is confusion-spreading mafia behavior. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
then don't shit on the thread with your useless, non-backed-up thoughts. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 10:59 L wrote: They're pretty useful because if I'm killed tonight after you're lynched, I'd rather that mafia members don't survive. If you actually are town, the statement would have been null to you anyways. Why are you taking every opportunity you have to try to make me look bad? I was interested in your reasoning behind that statement because it would be informative to know whether there is any semblance of logic behind why you want me lynched (allows me to know whether you are a mafia trying to bandwagon me or a townie who is overly paranoid). | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 11:09 Foolishness wrote: As Radfield said, we need to learn something about the alignment of our DTs. You guys sort of half committed to this plan yesterday when it was decided everyone should roleclaim and coordinate DT checks. Yeah, I think you're mafia and I gave my reasoning and analysis. Even if I hadn't, we got to follow the plan and lynch you. Yeah, I know it's really fucked up and all, and I surely didn't vote for it, nor did I choose to have the DTs inspect you but that's how it is. Did you even read the post you quoted? I explained there that lynching me is clearly suboptimal; waiting to lynch me later if sufficient evidence arises is better. Pending all that, do you have someone you'd rather lynch? Yeah I know you want to kill me and L does too but anyone else? I mean, if you made a nice little post explaining how citizen is suspicious/inactive and then compare his attitude in this game to the past game where he was mafia (I'll just go ahead and tell you right now he's acting exactly the same), I could very easily be convinced to lynch him and not you. I don't think going after suspicious inactives would be a bad idea. I haven't been watching citizen, but vivi57 and redtooth have somewhat suspicious behavior. Hopefully I'll be able to take some time to do an analysis of those 2 (there isn't much content to go by) later tonight. Let's make a deal -- you analyze citizen and actually spend a few minutes reading my post explaining why lynching me isn't a good idea, and I'll do the 2 analyses I mentioned. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
if anyone else votes for me, they get capped, see? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 15:50 Chezinu wrote: Yeah, you better not mess with the Dvig! But what if there are two Dvigs.. too bad I can't pretend to be one.. ##Slap Chezinu Haha! What choo gonna do 'bout it pal? Be a good lil chez or i'll ##kill you | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
seriously? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Here's my PM conversation with L: + Show Spoiler + You're wrong, but generally on the right track. It does indeed have to do with the possibility of you lying about the roleblock if you flip red. That said, there doesn't seem to be a 'secret' watcher as far as I can tell. Since I'd rather not confirm roles that I rather don't want mafia to take a shot at, I'll just leave it at that. Also, tree.hugger hates me and would never give me pm information. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Ok, L: I've been thinking a lot about possible scenarios that would make me flipping red mean foolishness is red. Here's what I came up with: Foolishness PM'd you at the start of the game saying he was watcher and did not RC in the thread. He said he watched me and reported that Ludwig and MooCow are the only ones who visited me. You then thought this was strange because I claimed to have been role blocked. This leaves an interesting possibility: I'm mafia and coordinating with foolishness in an effort to get a detective lynched. Now, I want to say that that scenario is highly unlikely, because why would the mafia give away 2 of their members in exchange for 1 detective? The other thing I thought about was that tree.hugger PM'd you with his findings without posting them in the thread, but I wasn't able to construct any interesting scenarios on that case. Let me know your thoughts on this. Something very interesting is going on here. I realized something very important a couple hours ago that I'm going to sit on until I hear back from you regarding this. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Exactly how much thread based information have I ever kept secret? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: keeping information to yourself is often a bad thing, especially in a mass role claim game. if this is information you derived based off of private information (blue role, PM's, etc) then fine, keep it to yourself, but if this is something that somebody could come up with based on posts in the thread only, then you should be publicly voicing it. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Well, if you're going to assume everything I'm writing is sarcasm, then call me stupid... I'm not explaining shit because I quite frankly don't really need to give mafia additional information about how I came to that conclusion. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: You neither explained why you had that idea nor accepted my statement, what are you talking about? You're going to have to communicate more clearly. I read your last PM to me as sarcastic, was that not the way you meant it? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: For explaining why I had that idea? Or for accepting your statement? Either way, pretty hilarious reaction on your part. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: you are either mafia or very, very dumb / closeminded. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: This is not a good plan for the town, people. Indicated otherwise for me. But fair enough. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: No, I sent this in response to your post in the thread (a clue would be the fact I that referenced your most recent post?) I'm going to move our dialog to the thread. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Did you just send this to everyone? Because it looks like a standard spam pm used to get people to look at the thread. And no, flip red. I'm not saying anything more because frankly its pretty irrelevant unless you flip red. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Do you really think I'm mafia, or are you trying to get me lynched to get detective info? If it's the latter, I hope you've read my post: People, if you are just looking at the last page of the thread, vote for me ONLY if you think I'm suspicious as mafia, NOT if you think it's going to reduce detective uncertainty. If I get lyched and flip green, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are naiive or sane. If I get lynched and flip red, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are insane or naiive. So guess what? This doesn't help much; either way they could still both (or the 1) be naiive. The only way to know for sure the detective(s) sanity after that will be if the detective happens to get back a red role check and you lynch them. Banking on that happening soon isn't smart. This is not a good plan for the town, people. Anyway, I don't follow your reasoning for lynching foolishness if I were to flip red. Did you mean if I were to flip green? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Let's go after an inactive. It should be ridiculously obvious at this point that I'm townie and a huge waste of a lynch (and I'm active and logically thinking through things, you don't want me gone). It should also be obvious that lynching me does not reveal enough information about the detectives sanities to be worth it. Aka, it's bad for the town to lynch me. I think we'd be well advised to look at who supported lynching me thus far (since L was not involved in my bandwagon directly, another mafioso was probably involved) in the future. For today, I propose we go after an inactive, since undoubtedly there is >= 1 mafia hiding in the inactives. Just to throw a name out, Vivi57 is both inactive and voted for me. I'm changing my vote to Vivi57. Please follow suit if you want the town to win | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 01:48 Radfield wrote: List of fairly inactive players: vivi57 redtooth RoL Ohn I say we go after RoL first. He strikes me as moderately scummy, and is the scummiest looking player who voted for Jspazz. On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote: I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. I'm fine with RoL too. I did an analysis on him a couple days ago: + Show Spoiler + RebirthOfLegend #232: promises activity #237: supports plan "for the same reasons radfield said". Disagrees, however, with blues lying to mask their roles (vets claim detective, etc) because it creates confusions and "is a big no." RC's townie. #240: more words saying blues shouldn't lie about their role. claims that L never once said to lie about your role when he indeed did (see page 13 of thread). #257: points finger at me for a mistake in one of my posts (for some reason I thought for a second that millers lynched flip vanlilla townie instead of miller) and says that's mafiaish, citing his previous game where he played mafia and didn't read the rules carefully. LOL's at so many greens role claiming (well no shit there are going to be excess greens... what are mafia going to claim, red?). #260: says the plan isn't that bad Summary: RoL has a strange post history. All of his non-useless posts are in the same time period. The only real things he's done are advocate the plan (actually, he advocated the imaginary plan where blues DO NOT lie about their roles, then ended up advocating the real one later anyway) and arouse suspicion about me. 3rd to vote for jspazz. He also didn't bother to defend himself after I voted for him on day1. My read on him is an accuse-happy townie who has bad reading comprehension and/or not been keeping up properly with the thread. I'm more suspicious of him now than I was back then. I mean, RoL just logged on once, posted for a couple hours in favor of L's plan, and never came back. Very strange. Same thing for ohN btw: he hasn't posted in quite awhile and had some questionable posts when he did post. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
MooCow and Ludwig both roleclaimed detective and said they'd investigate me. Meeple said he'd flip a coin to watch ludwig or tree.hugger. tree.hugger did not say who he would be tracking. So why was I role blocked? My answer is that one of Meeple, ludwig, and moocow are actually the role blocker and feigned watching or investigating me by role blocking me (a tracker or watcher wouldn't be able to tell the difference). Further (though it's much weaker evidence), I PM'd L a fake theory I came up with about why he thought foolishness would flip red if I did, and L's response was that I was on the right track (that he didn't believe me I was roleblocked). I think this was an attempt to throw me off the trail and only think about cases where I was not role blocked. All of this makes me feel pretty confident that my theory is correct. The question is, which of Meeple, ludwig, moocow are the infiltrating mafioso? Let's look at Meeple: if he's mafia, he would be required to pretend to visit ludwig instead of tree.hugger, else he would be forced to reveal who visited tree.hugger which is bad for mafia (even if he came up with a story of 2 people visited him, the medic and mafioso). But, if he said he visited ludwig, then why was it necessary to fake doing so by role blocking me? My conclusion is that meeple is probably clean, although it's a convenient coincidence that he happened to not watch tree.hugger (if meeple really is clean, the mafia took a huge risk to hit tree hugger last night). That leaves me to believe that either ludwig or moocow is the infiltrating mafioso. The fact that having a veteran in this game is highly unlikely means that there should be no townie faking detective, and I also find it highly unlikely that there are 2 detectives in the game. My gut feeling is that ludwig is mafia due to his posting behavior, some PM exchanges I had with him, and the fact that he posted me as townie instead of town-aligned (which is all a role check comes back as in this game) which means he's not as familiar with his "role" as he should be. However, I am not certain. So how can we resolve this mess? We can resolve it through tonight's blue actions: MooCow and Ludwig each role check a different non-inactive (we'll need them to respond). Meeple watches whoever one of those is to be role checked. Obviously hatter/medic will not visit any of the people being role checked. Then, we will hear back about about our detective and watcher findings. Also, each of the people being role checked will say whether they got role blocked. If neither got role blocked, then we look at meeple's findings: if meeple saw that person get visited, then the detective who was supposed to check the other person is the mafioso and we lynch him. If meeple did not see that person get visited, then the detective who was supposed to check the person meeple was watching is the mafioso. If one of the people got role blocked, then again we look at meeple's findings: if meeple watched the person who claims to be roleblocked, we catch the mafioso. if meeple watched the other person, the detective who was supposed to watch the other person is the mafioso. Of course, we get the extra benefit of getting the role checks back, which will prove useful once we know which detective is the mafioso. I would like to note that this plan will fail hard for us if it turns out that none of the three I mentioned are mafia. However, if there is a mafioso in the blue group (seems likely due to evidence), this plan is guaranteed to catch him (with the worst case being meeple is the mafioso, and we end up losing a detective). Thoughts? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 07:38 Vivi57 wrote: So I started to think about what a5j just posted. Combine that with the fact that L's claiming being discussed before he made the post would throw all sorts of timing tells off. It also makes perfect sense that a mafioso would claim blue early on to encourage more blues claiming in the future. So we know the first blue claimer is dead and was blue. The second is ludwig, a prime suspect. Then: He wants us to *PM* L our roles rather than posting them. If that doesn't set off a million red flags, I don't know what does. going to continue ludwig's analysis, but given that we only have a few hours before night, I'm posting this here now. Oh jesus christ I completely forgot he said that. I bet the mafia were banking on L being the godfather and "immune" from role checks and hoping he would be the blue circle leader. Let's not go overboard and lynch ludwig right now, but instead let's go ahead and lynch RoL and discuss the plan for night actions I proposed. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 07:52 Vivi57 wrote: [/blue]+ Show Spoiler + On June 12 2010 03:01 LuDwig- wrote: haahah quite easy to claim Detective when we are sending not claiming people to a corner .__. How to discover who is lying? The plan is quite easy! [blueTracker checks this night me or moocow. If one of us is lying tracker will knows that we have visited nobody during the night! So we will know for sure who is lying MooCow...i suppose you have not problem following this plan right? BRILLIANT. They set up a scenario where they're guarenteed the tracker kill (noone double claims as tracker) and use the tracker to verify ludwig. Based on his other posting, I also doubt he could think of that plan by himself (or he could and he's just playing dumb). yeah, I'm not doing a good job of objectively reading ludwig, but he seems visibly upset when citizen hits L, criticizing the shot. But yeah, my vote is on ludwig for sure Hmmm, so ludwig role blocked me in case meeple watched me (even though meeple said he'd flip a coin between tree hugger and ludwig) or tree.hugger tracked ludwig and was saved by a medic? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 08:13 Foolishness wrote: We got 2 hours until day is over. RoL is already dead unless something drastic happens, which it won't. So we might as well talk about what night actions are going on. First thing is obviously to coordinate DT checks. We might as well vote on it. ##vote Ohn for DT checks I'm leery of DT checking ohN because he may not respond to us asking him if he got roleblocked, which is very important information if you buy into the plan I proposed (even if we don't end up lynching ludwig or moocow, in the end the more information the better right?). | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 08:20 Foolishness wrote: Him not responding means he's of no use to the town, and even if he's town aligned he should die. Also confirming DT sanities out of it is even better for us. Obviously if you have someone better, give reasoning and vote. There's no reason not to unless you're mafia. Hmmm... ok, I'm fine with ohN as long as we have our less suspect detective (MooCow) rolecheck him and have Ludwig role check another (bit more active) person (call them person A). That way A will probably be the one to say they got role blocked, if anyone. And dude, it's time to stop accusing me of being mafia. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 08:29 MooCow wrote: I think we should go with my earlier plan of 2 DT's checking one target ( possibly Ohn ). Watcher/tracker follows up on us or the target to make sure everyone is telling the truth and we all reveal our information. No, that won't work. Think about it more carefully. If you or ludwig are the roleblocker, they can roleblock who they are supposed to be investigating and the watcher won't be able to tell the difference (and we don't have a tracker anymore). But with the new info we have ( AFJ and citizen MAYBE 100% town or someone we can REALLY trust) how about we PM our findings to them so we don't reveal it to the public and we'll continue from there? I don't see the point. With most information public at this point, we might as well keep it public. Everyone in the town should be involved in decisions since we have public blues. Of course, if anyone wants to talk to someone they trust as townie via PM, I'm always open. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 08:43 MooCow wrote: What I mean is if we were going with my plan, both DT's get their information right and we PM it to a someone we trust so one or the other can't copy each other ( although there's only a 50% chance ). The PM'd person confirms that he has both the DT's results and goes public with it. The information will become public to everyone just not initially. Basically imo it's just an extra method to stop one or the other from claiming to find the same info ( only 50% chance though ) but still worth it and pretty easy to do. We can even PM 2 people ( AFJ and citizen ) you guys confirm it and then come out with the information to the public. Oh ok, that makes sense. It's actually a no-lose situation, since either of you would we were making it up. The right way to implement this plan would be as follows: both detectives and watcher PM both me and citi.zen with their results. Me and citi.zen will then communicate to make sure we got the same results and subsequently post them in the thread. If one of the detectives tries to frame one of us for lying, the other person can back him up. There are various other possibilities of people being mafia, but I think they will all work out in favor of the town. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 10:00 Foolishness wrote: Yeah...I remember last time I tried to pull off a vote switch as mafia only half my team showed up for it... ##Slap foolishness | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
but fuck yea on the opz modkill lol... very strange... | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
MooCow investigates Flamewheel Ludwig investigates redtooth Meeple watches Flamewheel Medic flips a coin to protect MooCow or Meeple (if ludwig dies and flips town we pretty know MooCow is mafia, otherwise we all suspect ludwig) Hatter plants bomb on whomever they choose besides the above people Flamewheel/redtooth: it's very important that you say if you got roleblocked. If one of you lies, we can kill both you and the detective who investigated you in order reduce the mafia count to 1. People like? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 10:32 Foolishness wrote: I think it's better DTs check the same person. If we kill said person, then both DTs will probably know their alignment afterwards (not for certain, depends on the person and the results returned). If we do your plan, and split the DTs up. Say one of them turns up mafia and we kill them. Regardless of their actual alignment, only ONE detective is going to know their alignment, and the other one will still be clueless. Assuming of course both DTs are actually DTs and not something else. The problem is that if we stack DT checks, the roleblocker (if he's pretending to be detective, which seems likely) can get away with not being detected. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Thinking.... | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 10:48 Foolishness wrote: If we have both DTs check the same person, and kill that person, we can nearly figure out both their alignments. This would immensely help prove you innocent as well (assuming you are). Don't you want to be confirmed innocent? That's only going to help if the role check(s) come back red. That plan is fine to fall back on if we can't construct a more elaborate one that will give us juicy information. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Given that we don't know whether to trust our detectives, let's have them role check each other. Meeple watches MooCow. Possible scenarios: Meeple gets role blocked If there is a mafia faking detective, our legit detective will get a red role check back on the other detective (assuming he's not naive). Lynch the red detective, if he flips green, lynch the other detective. Mafia down to 1. Wham bam thank you maam! MooCow gets role blocked (or fakes it) Meeple will observe who roleblocked him Ludwig gets role blocked (or fakes it) MooCow can tell us what he got back for ludwig's alignment. If it's red, lynch ludwig. The medic should flip a coin whether to protect MooCow or Meeple given we are quite suspicious of ludwig right now. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 10:57 MooCow wrote: Why does it only help if the RC comes back red? We chose someone that we want to lynch in advance and no matter what the RC comes back as we lynch them to help solve our sanities. I should be somewhat confirmed as green at this point. Just look at my conversations with L and such (including the PM exchange I had with him). So we already know (or heavily suspect from your viewpoint) that of the truth telling detective(s), they are sane or naive. So if we lynch a green role checkee we get no additional information (well, it completely confirms me, but that doesn't seem like the most important information right now given that I'm trusted by most of you guys). | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 05:54 MooCow wrote: Yea I must be REALLY bad at this game for citizen ( if he's town ) to want to kill me. I'm not even trying to look like mafia and i'm DT but I still come off as mafia! 2 faces -__-;; T__T. Your posts are just mafiaey. Why do you think I went nuts on you last game lol | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 06:37 Foolishness wrote: Check Flamewheel, as planned. If you really really really want to check Chezinu, that's fine too. But don't check anyone else. meeple should probably flip a coin to watch one of the DTs. One of them is likely to get roleblocked. This doesn't put any pressure on our detectives though -- if one of them is the roleblocker, they won't be required to roleblock who they are checking to cover themselves because Meeple won't be watching. The best thing to do here is to have both meeple and ludwig check flamewheel and have meeple watch flamewheel. Then, we ask flamewheel if he got role blocked. If meeple gets roleblocked in this situation, it's going to be pretty obvious that one of our detectives if mafia. If one of the detectives gets roleblocked, we will know for sure that one of our detectives if legit and be able to trust him. MooCow/Ludwig check flamewheel. Meeple watch flamewheel. Hatters/Vig/Medic if you exist do not visit flamewheel. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
[QUOTE]On June 16 2010 06:37 Foolishness wrote: [QUOTE]On June 16 2010 06:13 MooCow wrote: Cool thanks. If one of the detectives gets roleblocked, we will know for sure that one of our detectives if legit and be able to trust him. [/QUOTE] And this is because meeple will see detective A visit flamewheel, which detective A has to be legit because the roleblocker used his roleblock on detective B (or detective B didn't do anything if he's mafia). | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 07:28 Foolishness wrote: Except both DTs are clean, so stop being paranoid. Why are you so convinced of this? You really think there is a watcher, a tracker, and 2 detectives in a 17 player game? That seems highly unlikely, so stop being mafia. Jk about the mafia part. I think. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 07:34 Foolishness wrote: And by the way, to whoever said AFJ is innocence because of his PM convo with L: if you think it's probable MooCow has been lying about being mafia for the past week, who's to say the mafia didn't whip up a PM conversation with L and AFJ? It's a lot easier to put together a PM convo then stage a mafia being DT. You, citi.zen, and I are somewhat trusted at this point, so for now can we work together rather than bantering with each other? I could start pointing out reasons I'm suspicious of you, but you aren't the top of my list, and if I'm at the top of your list, you should consider never playing mafia again if you are town :O | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 07:40 Foolishness wrote: It's his second game of mafia you think he'd lie about being DT? I also have inside information about the DT situation which you don't. And yes, you are JK about the mafia part. I'm going to die tonight so you'll see for sure in a few hours. If you have sense in you, you should realize that taking potshots at the DTs because you are soooooo sure they are mafia is not the smart move. The smart move would be to hit among the unconfirmed people first (flamewheel, Chez, redtooth, Radfield), then worry about a DT infiltration. Even if there is a DT infiltration, you hitting the unconfirmed townies is sure to kill one mafia. Bullshit. Forget what I just said about not bantering with you. You just shot up about 6 spots on my list. What insider information could you possibly have that would make you sure that both detectives are legit? I'll answer that for you: it's impossible at this point in the game unless you consider PM conversations with people sufficient evidence with would be retarded. Medic, in case you are tempted, do NOT protect foolishness tonight (he's implying that he wants to be protected by saying he's going to die tonight). You know, L pulled this same trick when he started spouting off bullshit that lynching you is a good idea if I turn up red... he said he had inside information in that PM conversation I had with him and refused to reveal anything about it. It would be exactly an L kind of thing to do to say something like that to make us less suspicious that you're mafia... | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 07:50 Foolishness wrote: Where did I say you were mafia or that I thought you were mafia? I mean, if you guys start killing DTs and lose the game or only barely come out victorious, everything I'm saying right now is going to be like "well shit why didn't we listen to this guy". If you guys say MooCow is mafia, I'm going to say it's equally as likely AFJ is mafia, and that's because it is equally as likely. Don't shoot claimed blues where there are inactive townies to kill, that's how mafia win games. Everyone here has played before and should know this fact. No one is saying that we are going to start killing detectives. All we are doing is trying to narrow down their alignments and their trustworthyness through logic. There will be no lynching of detectives unless we are desperate at the end or if there is sufficient evidence to make it 100% that they are mafia. Why are you so reluctant to try to narrow down their trustworthyness, pal? And no, you aren't going to be the one who dies tonight, it's going to be me because I'm one of the few talking sense in this god damn town and the mafia probably thinks I have a blue role (SHOOT ME IM THE MEDIC). | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 07:50 Foolishness wrote: Where did I say you were mafia or that I thought you were mafia? I mean, if you guys start killing DTs and lose the game or only barely come out victorious, everything I'm saying right now is going to be like "well shit why didn't we listen to this guy". If you guys say MooCow is mafia, I'm going to say it's equally as likely AFJ is mafia, and that's because it is equally as likely. Don't shoot claimed blues where there are inactive townies to kill, that's how mafia win games. Everyone here has played before and should know this fact. No one is saying that we are going to start killing detectives. All we are doing is trying to narrow down their alignments and their trustworthyness through logic. There will be no lynching of detectives unless we are desperate at the end or if there is sufficient evidence to make it 100% that they are mafia. Why are you so reluctant to try to narrow down their trustworthyness, pal? And no, you aren't going to be the one who dies tonight, it's going to be me because I'm one of the few talking sense in this god damn town and the mafia probably thinks I have a blue role (SHOOT ME IM THE MEDIC). And uh... I don't believe for a second that you are the medic. Your "insider" information at best is that you've been talking to meeple. Sweet, meeple is clean. I already knew that. But how could you possibly know that both detectives are legit? You can't. If you are the medic, and somehow the mafia knows this and are going to kill you tonight, how could they have possibly obtained that information? Did you role claim to one of them? If so you better godamn PM me with everyone you role claimed to before the night is over and your death will have been worth it. If you are not in private contact with someone you know to be mafia, why would you risk it and role claim medic NOW? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 07:58 Foolishness wrote: Okay, citizen says he's shooting MooCow tonight. Anyone who's not meeple or me thinks MooCow is mafia apparently. You see, I'm the one that wants to narrow down their alignments, that's why I'm saying inspect flamewheel, we kill him tomorrow regardless of results. That's figuring out their alignment On the other hand, citizen is over here saying HEY GUYS IM SHOOTING MOOCOW THERES NO WAI I CAN BE WRONG IM ALWAYS RIGHT!!! Yea citi.zen has done a terrible job in this game. OH WAIT HE KILLED THE GODFATHER. and WAIT HE ONLY HAD 1 SHOT HOW THE FUCK IS HE GOING TO KILL MOOCOW TONIGHT? | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 08:10 Radfield wrote: I love how I shot up to being number two most likely without a single piece of evidence . Citizen, we've been PMing back and forth but we might as well get this out in the open. Obviously something I said made you think I was mafia, and it's likely the fact that I was saying it's a bad idea to use the vig shot on moocow. By using the vig shot tonight it means that we lose an entire night and day cycle. Instead of a lynch or lose situation on day 5, it becomes a lynch or lose on day 4. That means we lose a night of medic protection, dt checks, and watchering. Does this at least enter into the decision making process of the night vig shot? I realize you feel quite sure that moocow is mafia, and frankly I think him most likely of our blue claimers to be mafia, and one of the most likely left in the game. Check the thread, I've said it before. But that doesn't mean he should be the first to go. We have other good targets. If you doubt my alignment, at least check with ludwig and meeple. They are our most townie players in my mind, and I've been part of a mini town circle with them since the beginning of the game. Anyways, if you think me scummy, at least drop a shred of evidence my way. I agree with radfield that shooting moocow tonight would be hasty. Frankly I suspect ludwig much more than moocow. Let's use the night actions to help narrow down which of them is the bad guy rather than risk wasting our good detective. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Though citizen, I really would swap your suspicion of moocow with Ludwig. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + :D | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 10:15 flamewheel wrote: Guys, I just got a PM. I was roleblocked during the night. HAHA | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Meeple is not confirmed but only likely town -- there are plenty of mafia plots that could involve meeple right now and I don't want to give mafia any unnecessary opportunities. Only PM me and citizen. Foolishness there is no way both me and ciziten are mafia -_- | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 11:05 meeple wrote: Bahaha... alright well... so... I have a story to tell... but I'm going to wait to tell it just to keep you guys in suspense. The end result is good though... there was a mafia found last night... well according to what we asked you to do, you should have witnessed the role blocker blocking flamewheel. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Man it's ironic that ludwig didn't just role block you meeple. If they thought you were watcher, that would have them covered, and also would have been favorable now that you turned out to be the medic. But for some reason they decided you definitely weren't the watcher and that the real watcher would be watching flamewheel so they had to role block flamewheel anyway... Jesus. This is really lucky for the town. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
and I can't believe they took the bait you gave them foolishness with that last argument. Just for the record I PM'd foolishness after that argument saying that I know he was trying to draw a hit! But I thought he was a mad hatter. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 16 2010 15:06 Foolishness wrote: Just to clarify some things for those who are overly paranoid: 1) First night I watched Ludwig, and I got back that he was visited by tree.hugger and meeple. This subsequently rules out meeple as mafia since Ludwig did not die, and since Ludwig was not roleblocked (in some wacky scenario where he's town and meeple's mafia, I'm pretty sure Ludwig would have claimed in thread. That plus AFJ claimed to be medic) meeple must be clean. So this rules out the possibility that meeple's medic. You mean meeple claimed to be medic? oO; 2) The only other person that has known about our true identities is Radfield. I'm not sure exactly how he found out meeple was the medic, so meeple can probably clarify if necessary. This makes Radfield very likely to be clean, as he wouldn't have ordered the hit on me since he knew I wasn't medic. Yes, it's possible that he did this to gain trust but I find that highly unlikely, especially since we have 3 lynches to find the remaining mafia. In the end he'll probably slip somewhere and lose. That's interesting. However, in a PM exchange Radfield insisted that Ludwig- was clean and that I should consult Meeple about it if I don't believe him... but it sounds like you all trusted Ludwig- for some reason without proof, care to explain this? For the remaining days I suggest we take the following course of action. Let's hope for the best and assume our DT is not naive, nor mafia. DT will check redtooth and we lynch Chezinu tomorrow (obviously if the result of the check is mafia we kill that person). Next night DT checks Radfield should he be alive and if there's no mafia result, then we decide among the remaining townspeople who to kill (*cough* flamewheel *cough*). [/quote] Man it's going to be tough if our detective is indeed naive (I feel very confident that MooCow IS detective at this point). The only way to win at that point will be to get lucky and lynch the right person. The good news is we have a fool proof way to keep meeple and foolishness alive: meeple protects foolishness, and foolishness watches meeple. If the mafioso is dumb enough to hit meeple he will get spotted by foolishness, and clearly the hit will be blocked if he goes after foolishnesss. Now this does waste our watcher ability since in doing this we won't be able to spot the mafioso killing other people, so perhaps meeple and foolishness can coordinate how we use the night actions (perhaps have foolishness watch someone else), with the threat to the mafioso always being that if he goes after meeple or foolishness he might be wasting his kill or will get caught. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote: Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt... Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away. I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig... Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... It seems like bad play for 2 of the mafia to try to infiltrate a blue circle. What's the point? My best guess of the remaining mafia before the night's events was Ludwig/Radfield, but now I would guess that it's going to be Ludwig/Redtooth (or hell, it could even be chezinu... he has acted fairly town aligned in my PMs but what has he really contributed to the town?) Also, because I love conspiracy theories :D! --It's possible that meeple and foolishness are the remaining mafia and that the roleblocking the second night was just to totally throw the town off. We will know this is the case very quickly if ludwig flips green as foolishness already mentioned (I find this highly unlikely). --Or, foolishness is mafia and made up being the watcher (assuming he did the ballsy thing and assumed that no watcher exists in the game). He then convinced meeple that he's the watcher and said he saw meeple visit ludwig (which meeple had already stated he did) and made up that tree.hugger visited ludwig (no way for tree.hugger to verify that since he died). On the second night, foolishness hit himself knowning that meeple would protect him. So at this point there is no way for meeple to know that something is fishy and everything looks dandy. Then, we lynch ludwig, who turns out to be the legit detective and there are still 2 mafia left. Foolishness, as you would say, you deserve an Oscar for your performance if this is what you've done. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 17 2010 09:25 flamewheel wrote: Well, still have to wait for everybody to vote in order to avoid modkills, no? So I'd still say that everybody has to have at least cast a vote. Yeah, everyone voted besides redtooth. Frankly I wouldn't mind if he gets modkilled since he's one of our suspects and mafia sure as hell will be saving him for last. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 17 2010 10:17 Chezinu wrote: wait a minute flame still could be mafia... he could have lied about the roleblock? MooCow said he's town which means he's town unless MooCow is naiive. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Which brings me to something interesting: The last mafioso just told korynne that he wasn't going to concede. Who posted soon after the night post? Me, MooCow, and chezinu! Who else would be enough of a troll to keep playing after they've clearly lost? Chezinu! | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 17 2010 14:08 Foolishness wrote: So who's getting checked tonight? Obviously we should do one of: Radfield, redtooth, Chezinu. Then we must decide who to kill tomorrow assuming a green result. So I would say, we check redtooth and kill Radfield. Unless of course the result of the check is Mafia. I'd rather check/lynch Chezinu/Radfield. I don't think redtooth is that likely to be mafia. Also look at my previous post for a clue that Chezinu might be the remaining mafioso. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
-->Awesome shot by citizen on day 2. Fucking amazing. -->GJ meeple/foolishness in drawing the incriminating hit from ludwig. If not for that we would have been flopping for several more days and could have lost. | ||
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
| ||