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TL Mafia XXVI - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 01:58 GMT
#962
NOOOOOOOOOO!!!
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 01:58 GMT
#964
Flamewheel, what ROFL? I screwed up or did I made you rewrite your mod post?
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 01:59 GMT
#967
I think I am the MOST suspicious person here since I made so many critical decision.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 02:01 GMT
#971
Time to get ready.

Searching for the "FUCK YEAH" and the "FACEPALM" pics.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 02:03 GMT
#977
+ Show Spoiler [This?] +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [This?] +
[image loading]
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 02:07 GMT
#989
supernovamaniac and Icysoul are to be modkilled.
Hugoboss21, 3 Lions, and Tyranos_NiveK are to be given warnings.


Yeah, screw inactive.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 02:10 GMT
#994
[image loading]
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 02:12 GMT
#997
Now, you are here CompX...
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 02:14 GMT
#1001
Lets hope for my sanity that at the end of the game, Deuce also is town...
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 02:22 GMT
#1009
Sorry man, I was the last vote.

Will probably take a more passive role from now on as my decision making is crap right now.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 05:27 GMT
#1027
On June 08 2010 13:46 Zyrre wrote:
Shouldn't all mafias have tried to vote for and convince the town to lynch MooCow?

If deuce is a mafia, they obviously would rather have MooCow lynched.
If deuce is townie, they would still rather have MooCow since he was more active. Less activity makes it easier for them to lurk and hide.

Now they most likely wouldn't risk to start the bandwagon, but rather jump on it later.

Those who voted for MooCow were:
AcrossFiveJulys
DCLXVI
Misder
BrownBear
zeks
sputnik.theory
onihunter
DarthThienAn (x3)
LunarDestiny

That's a fairly short list considering there are 6 mafias. Can't be completely certain they are all in there obviously, but starting with these guys should be the best option.

Yeah, I knew it when I recast my vote if MooCow is not mafia. Those who unvote then vote would be highly suspicious.

At that time, I was convinced (well, I am not so sure that deuce is mafia and time is running out so I couldn't do some look up on MooCow) that MooCow was is a better choice. I am also pretty sure that even if people want to change their votes to MooCow that they won't do it to avoid suspicion. So I took that risk and it ended up as a failure.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 05:38 GMT
#1029
Mafia games are always like this. If you vote to lynch the wrong target, you will be suspected. Even more so if you are one of the early bandwagon starters or the very last few who casts the deciding votes. And this applies even if you have good reasons to do so because deception is a big part of the game.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 06:06 GMT
#1031
Onihunter, your math also assumes that neither darth or yellowink is dt or medic.

The mafia also might consider to stack 2 hits on someone that is analyzing in the correct direction.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 13:50 GMT
#1035
My final starts in 2 hours and I do not know why I am so addicted to this...

In this game, I played with the intention that I want town to win even if I have to make myself suspicious
. Darth got most of his analysis on me correct but I want to add more, not to protect myself, but in a third person point of view.


The asking for medic protection is very mafia like.

I played very active and have significant influence in the entire game. It is to the mafia's benefit that a medic waste his night protect on a mafia to decrease the chance that mafia's target be killed. If I am really a townie as I claimed, it is to the town's benefit that I take the mafia hit for our blue role (damn Icysoul and your wasted day kill ability).

Everyone can make chart

Darth missed a critical reason for this. In the last mafia game I played (Bang Bang Mafia) where I was the godfather, I also made some kind of charts for town and the mafia as well. In the mafia thread, I stated that if I make the chart about who can be who, the mafia's version of the chart would be better than town's chart.

Less content posts and high post counts are always the characteristic of my post

If you check the past mafia game I played (3 kingdoms and bang bang), you will see that my posts are very similar to posts to this game. I think I gotten better after each game I played so my content in this game might be even better than my previous two games.

My playing style is somewhat different

Even though this game has clues pointing to mafia, I don't emphasis too heavily on them because the clues are vague and can be very misleading. I only relate to them if I want to make a counter claim. I prefer to use behavior analysis and other kind of analysis (like voting timing, activity in game, reaction to post) that are somewhat unique.
End of third person point of view.

After the result of night 1 that I might have wasted a medic protection, I decided that I want the town to win even if it costs my life. I have regularly pointed out my actions in this game are very suspicious because I had too much influence on the game.

I started both bandwagon for Darth and YellowInk (who both I still believe are pro town because of pming to inactives (who the confrimed barth is dead as a townie) and posting history respectively). I prevented a possible bang wagon of lynching TheGilaBoys because the lack of concrete reasons for the lynch. Looking back, I never really state very good reason for lynching Deuce except for his inactivity and almost zero contribution to town. But I kind of rallied the bandwagon for lynching him because I think he is a better target than TheGilaBoys. I changed my vote to MooCow not because I have my reason doing so but my feeling that Deuce is mafia is not strong and others have strong belief that MooCow is mafia.

Now what to do for me:
1)I can be more passive and not start any band wagon in the future. And deal with my case in a later time.

2)A detective could probably clear me of doubt being mafia. I don't recommend this before the Miller is still not to be found. As the number of people alive in game decreases, my chance of being a miller increases. Again, a dt check still doesn't clear me 100% because there is still the suspicion of me being the godfather. Either way, I think detectives should use their checks on others.

3)Lynching is the third choice. My influence on the game is debatably the highest in the game. I still feel good about my influence on the election. But my influence and decision on day 2 lynch turned out to be bad. Maybe if we lynched TheGilaBoys or Deuce, a mafia will be killed.

To clear confusion in town, the best possible decision is the lynching of myself but it will waste a lynch. The alternative is to do a double lynch of me and another person so that the is will be quicker to lower the kill power of the mafia and to avoid mafia having more influence to the lynch voting.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 13:54 GMT
#1036
Also, I have no side victory condition that I win by having myself lynched.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 13:58 GMT
#1037
ERROR:
Now what to do with me:
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 18:15 GMT
#1042
Shit, why was my respond to darth that bad? Time to reiterate.

When examining my case, you have to ask yourself why he did this?

The best prove of my innocence is probably the mayor election. I won't take much credit for Darth being elected as mayor (although I was his second vote), he was trusted by the town to begin with. For YellowInk, can I take some credit for him being the runner up? My choice of supporting him is correct, because he turned out to be one of the most helpful poster.

Now, for the explanation of asking for medic protection. I thought I was attracting a lot of attention. If the mafia wants to find a target, I might be a likely target so I asked for medic protection. From day 2 onward, I never asked another medic protection because I realize that the death as a townie, rather than a blue role, benefits the town.

I argued against lynching TheGilaBoys, because the reasons for lynching him is very flawed. My choice for lynching Deuce is because he was a better target in comparison.

Lastly, my switch to MooCow. I will say that choice is 50/50 since we don't have solid evidence that either is mafia. Weighting inactivity against possible suspicion, I finalized the lynch because I don't think anyone else is willing to be that final person.

I never thought I will hide anything for town and tried to play as explicit as possible. If you guys thinks that is some kind of mind game, I won't argue with that.

Again, I strongly against having a dt check on me since it might not prove anything (miller/godfather). Better solutions are to trust me or lynch me and get it done with.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 18:18 GMT
#1043
Also forgot to say, I am being sure I was the first to roleclaim (with pm) to both darth and yellowink as townie since I made no hesitation after being asked to do so.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 08 2010 20:28 GMT
#1058
Wait, to sum it up. The reasons of me being mafia are:
1)called for medic protection on day 1.
2)changed my vote on both day. Can you explain why this is mafia like? I was on the winning side both times and yet I switch. If I want to not attract attention, I could stayed with my votes.
3)don't give good analysis. When I do analysis, it is probably to validate my decisions. If this is mafia-like to you, then I can't argue with that. That is just how I have been playing even for the last 2 games.

Now keeping me alive without doing anything is like adding a dead weight to town.
If I am town, I can't do anything productive since I had lost the town's trust.
If I am mafia, I might pose a lot of problems in the future.
LunarDestiny
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
United States4177 Posts
June 09 2010 00:46 GMT
#1072
+ Show Spoiler [Before MooCow gets first vote] +
Before MooCow gets first vote:

TheGilaboy:
LaXerCannon (12:48)
pyr0ma5ta (07:35)
CompX (09:43)

Deucegladlier:
Deucegladlier (04:52)
YellowInk (07:11)
crate (09:39)
LunarDestiny (10:35)
Misder (12:07)
littlechava (12:21)
Zyrre (18:08)
DarthThienAn (18:47)

+ Show Spoiler [MooCow was voted once before bandwagon] +

After MooCow was voted once before getting the 2nd vote:

TheGilaboy:
LaXerCannon (12:48)
pyr0ma5ta (07:35)
CompX (09:43)
bumatlarge (05:49) new vote

Deucegladlier:
Deucegladlier (04:52)
YellowInk (07:11)
crate (09:39)
LunarDestiny (10:35)
Misder (12:07)
littlechava (12:21)
Zyrre (18:08)
DarthThienAn (18:47)
BrownBear (01:46) new vote
Thegilaboy (02:52) new vote
onihunter (03:04) new vote
deconduo (04:06) new vote
Hugoboss21 (04:23) new vote
DCLXVI (04:34) new vote
MTF (04:39) new vote

MooCow:
AcrossFiveJulys (00:16) new vote

+ Show Spoiler [The rest of the votes] +

The rest of the votes:

TheGilaboy:
LaXerCannon (12:48)
pyr0ma5ta (07:35)
CompX (09:43)
bumatlarge (05:49)

Deucegladlier:
Deucegladlier (04:52)
YellowInk (07:11)
crate (09:39)
LunarDestiny (10:35AM) unvote (10:56PM)
Misder (12:07) unvote (06:28)
littlechava (12:21)
Zyrre (18:08)
DarthThienAn (18:47) unvote (10:42)
BrownBear (01:46) unvote (08:09)
Thegilaboy (02:52)
onihunter (03:04) unvote (10:33)
deconduo (04:06)
Hugoboss21 (04:23)
DCLXVI (04:34) unvote (06:01)
MTF (04:39)

MooCow:
AcrossFiveJulys (00:16)
DCLXVI (06:01) revote
Misder (06:28) revote
BrownBear (08:09) revote
zeks (09:15)
sputnik.theory (09:34)
onihunter (10:33) revote
DarthThienAn (10:42) revote
LunarDestiny (10:56) revote


IF situation 1 (TheGilaBoy town and Deuce town)


Before the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia has no incentive over who to lynch (although they would prefer lynching the more active TheGilaBoy.

During the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia who didn't vote yet has two choices of either deuce or MooCow. MooCow is a better target since he is the more active poster.
Mafia who voted would not recast their votes to avoid attention.


IF situation 2 (TheGilaBoy town and Deuce mafia)


Before the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia would choose to lynch TheGilaBoy.

During the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia who didn't vote yet would choose to vote MooCow.
Mafia who voted also would choose to recast their votes to MooCow.


IF situation 3 (TheGilaBoy mafia and Deuce town)


Before the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia would choose to lynch Deuce.

During the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia who didn't vote yet would have no incentive choosing to lynch Deuce or MooCow (although they would prefer lynch the more active MooCow).
Mafia who voted would have no incentive to choosing to lynch Deuce or MooCow (although they would prefer lynch the more active MooCow).


IF situation 4 (TheGilaBoy mafia and Deuce mafia)


Before the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia would have no incentive choosing to lynch TheGilaBoy or MooCow (although they would prefer to lynch the less active Deuce).

During the bandwagon of MooCow, mafia who didn't vote yet would choose to vote MooCow.
Mafia who voted would choose to recast their votes to MooCow.


As of now, this information is pretty useless. This is an useful reference when we know the alignment of either TheGilaBoy, Deuce, or both. Corrections are welcome.
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