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On June 06 2010 04:40 Thegilaboy wrote:
My question about the stacking thing is our we informed if that is the option mafia decide to use? I mean that when the report on the hit comes, do we get to know something like "two attempts were made" if the mafia decides to stack 2 on an individual? Seems like that would be really useful information for us to know about the mafia's actions
No, we don't get that sort of information. We only know who got killed.
Okay, really going now. : x
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On June 06 2010 04:40 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2010 04:40 Thegilaboy wrote:
My question about the stacking thing is our we informed if that is the option mafia decide to use? I mean that when the report on the hit comes, do we get to know something like "two attempts were made" if the mafia decides to stack 2 on an individual? Seems like that would be really useful information for us to know about the mafia's actions No, we don't get that sort of information. We only know who got killed. Okay, really going now. : x
Well that certainly makes things more difficult for us! Thanks for the quick answers 
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On June 06 2010 04:40 Thegilaboy wrote:
My question about the stacking thing is our we informed if that is the option mafia decide to use? I mean that when the report on the hit comes, do we get to know something like "two attempts were made" if the mafia decides to stack 2 on an individual? Seems like that would be really useful information for us to know about the mafia's actions
No we only get told who dies and what they were.
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I believe in this variant of mafia, there will be clues linking to both of the killers that made the hits. If we're ever able to specifically determine these clues (a very difficult task) we will know that multiple hits were on a single target.
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Based on past games, there are probably 2 medics and 2 detectives right?
The probability that the mafia hit no medics/detectives:
17/21 * 16/20 * 15/19 = 51%.
So there's about a 50% chance the mafia will hit at least one medic/detective.
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I can confirm that onihunter's math is correct given his assumption of 2 medics and 2 detectives is true.
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There's also a 73% no detectives are hit, so 27% chance that at least one is hit (about a quarter of the time). This probability will increase after each night until one is actually hit, so maybe detectives should use their role checks pretty quickly. Although 1/4 isn't very high, it's high enough that you can't just ignore it.
19/21 * 18/20 * 17/19
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Good point but you might want to take account that I will be one of the target and I am no medic or detective.
Maybe they won't target me...
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On June 06 2010 05:22 LunarDestiny wrote:
Good point but you might want to take account that I will be one of the target and I am no medic or detective.
Maybe they won't target me...
Actually, if you're a green townie, you want to make yourself a target enticing for the mafia to kill if you can simply because having a green go down is less damaging to the town than having a blue go down. This is, of course, assuming that all the town players are equally skilled. Obviously the best way to go is to be able to predict who the mafia will hit so the medics just block them.
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Its kind of difficult to give reports on players if you don't know what you are looking for. I've played mafia on a smaller scale before, but with this there's so much information to trawl through here its very difficult to know what to look for. I'll try and do my best however.
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need to catch up on this, a LOT was discussed today. I noticed people asked for opinions on every player, and right now that is hard to give. It is easier now that about 5-6 people came out from under their rocks and started posting, but still many people are hard to analyze just because they barely post.
I guess I should not have added so much to my profile, so easy to randomly link clues to it now 
I will catch up and respond later tonight, i'm only on pg27 now
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but on the other hand, if you're mafia it's easy to hide...
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On June 06 2010 06:26 DCLXVI wrote:need to catch up on this, a LOT was discussed today. I noticed people asked for opinions on every player, and right now that is hard to give. It is easier now that about 5-6 people came out from under their rocks and started posting, but still many people are hard to analyze just because they barely post. I guess I should not have added so much to my profile, so easy to randomly link clues to it now I will catch up and respond later tonight, i'm only on pg27 now
If people don't post then that is your analysis of them. If you look one or two pages back to my analysis of my last-minute voters, the majority of it was "Yeah this guy doesn't post at all, POST MORE PLZ."
At this point, we just need to get rid of the inactivity in the town. Maybe things will change after the night ends, but assuming that none of our blue roles roleclaim with information, all we have to go on are the clues and the information we get from people posting. More posting is good for the town. Take it upon yourself to be more active - if you're too busy with RL to read through everything thoroughly, skim through, or read the most recent posts, try to get a sense of what you missed, and post accordingly.
If you look at LD's excel chart, basically, anyone with less posts than the crate, DCLXVI, MTF, ElyAs group needs to be posting more. And that's just quantity. A lot of players need to step up their quality. crate and MTF both don't post as much as maybe me or YI, but they contribute a lot every time they post, offering solid analysis, with decent length posts.
So you (all of you) need to either have a few long posts like those every day, OR you need to be posting frequently throughout the day.
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alright plans delayed so this is a brief summary of my thoughts
On June 06 2010 00:31 YellowInk wrote:
DCLXVI - You've expressed a fair number of thoughts. Definitely on the middle of the road in my opinion. You aligned with me fairly early, expressed suspicion in DTA, and noted TyranoS as a good lynch target. Express more of how you feel about everyone and you'll make a great active player.
Not sure if I would say I "aligned" with you. I feel that (as moocow said) one of you two is probably scum. I felt that DTA is more suspicious then, making you less likely to be scum. It is getting harder to distrust both of you now but I don't mind being the overly suspicious guy.
Another thing I noticed and is potentially harmful is how people (mainly me) use either or statements. Either he could be a townie and doing this or a mafia and doing that. However, there is always the possibility that clever scum are trying to trick you into thinking that they are townie. I usually just state the two most likely options, but more experienced players could be playing a higher game. Granted that is normally risky for mafia, but with a pool of new and old players it is less risky.
there is a lot of discussion on talking more, but I think that I have been providing a reasonable amount. I don't post as well as crate or MTF or as much as YI/DTA/LD but I contribute...
can't wait for day 2 clues
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People still have suspicion about Darth or YellowInk? It is good to always be aware of people lying but didn't we agreed in the election that they are the less likely to be mafia.
At this point, we have to trust the mayor and the pardoner or we couldn't get anything done. It is good to question but saying that one of them probably is mafia is too much.
Well, if Darth or YellowInk turns out to be mafia... I have the most responsibility. I started the band wagons for both candidates (their second votes are from me although I withdrew my vote from Darth).
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I'm not saying that we need to think that YI or Darth is a mafia but we should be WARY and VIGILANTE about the stuff that they post and things that they do.
As I said before you are trying to tell me that 6 organized people couldn't get someone into a mayor/pardoner role vs 24 disorganized paranoid and inactive group of people? A bit difficult to believe but it is possible.
I'm not saying I don't trust them to do their proper job as mayor/pardoner, even if they either or was a mafia he can't just go around lynching anyone without any repercussion from the town.
I trust them for the time being but i'm just saying if things look a bit weird we should be willing and ready to lynch them if needed.
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On June 06 2010 07:43 LunarDestiny wrote:
People still have suspicion about Darth or YellowInk? It is good to always be aware of people lying but didn't we agreed in the election that they are the less likely to be mafia.
At this point, we have to trust the mayor and the pardoner or we couldn't get anything done. It is good to question but saying that one of them probably is mafia is too much.
Well, if Darth or YellowInk turns out to be mafia... I have the most responsibility. I started the band wagons for both candidates (their second votes are from me although I withdrew my vote from Darth).
I don't think anyone is outright accusing them of being scum, but in a game of deception it doesn't hurt to be suspicious of everyone, and YI and Darth aren't exceptions entirely of that rule. That being said, I feel at least one of them could be scum, but not very sure of that right now.
Also, I am very curious as to why you keep painting yourself as a target? We are aware, and so is the mafia, of your contributions to the thread and your activity level. I completely understand you asking for medic aid that one or two times, but you've gone so far as to post in the other mafia thread that you think you are dying in this one very soon. I guess I just don't understand why you are acting like this. Either you are mafia and are trying to make us waste a medic on you while the hits target other people, or you are town and just attracting more attention to yourself as a target than necessary.
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I think that YellowInk's idea to start analyzing individual people is good and once Day 2 starts I'll come up with a couple people to look at. One or two whom I choose from the thread, then a couple whom I choose randomly (and not myself or anyone dead for reasons that should be obvious) I think makes sense.
I'm not going to be focusing on the game from here till the day post though so I'll wait till then.
Do note, guys, that when someone dies we should look through their posting history. That's not to say that the mafia always kill people just because of what they say in the thread ... but you can glean some useful stuff from looking at this.
Here's hoping we don't lose any DTs, medics, or particularly active people. Might be a bit much to hope for if you do the math, but I'll hope anyway
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On June 06 2010 07:19 DCLXVI wrote:
Another thing I noticed and is potentially harmful is how people (mainly me) use either or statements. Either he could be a townie and doing this or a mafia and doing that. However, there is always the possibility that clever scum are trying to trick you into thinking that they are townie. I usually just state the two most likely options, but more experienced players could be playing a higher game. Granted that is normally risky for mafia, but with a pool of new and old players it is less risky.
That's not harmful. It's basically the only thing we can do that isn't based off hard evidence (collections of clues, detective findings). It is true that meta level reasoning can be used by the mafia to mislead the town, but I wouldn't expect that in this game. Consistently playing a role that will work that way is difficult. So, let's focus on thinking logically at all times.
I did notice my name being mentioned as suspicious (due to a clue) and being inactive (for that I apologize). I don't like to participate and throw accusations out a lot in day 1 of a mafia game because there isn't a lot of evidence to go by and it just serves to confuse. If you look at the last mafia game I played in (XVI) you'll notice that my participation skyrocketed after Day 2 (granted, I was an assassin, but I was playing town-aligned because that was most advantageous for staying alive). However, I have been following the thread closely and tracking certain people's behavior. Day tomorrow is when we we are going to start having some interesting discussions
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AcrossFiveJuly, I was the one that brought out your number of post last week vs. you number of post in this thread so I feel responsible following up on our case.
First of all, I think you are actually referring to "TL Mafia XXII" where you played assassin instead of mafia game "XVI" because your aren't in "XVI".
Your number of post before day 2 (not counting counting pregame post) is 1 which is a little bit less than this thread's.
You number of post after day 2 (not including your after game post) is 12. Yes, your posts skyrocketed compared to day 1 but it is still not enough.
I would temporary take back my opinion of you being a potential mafia now. But you must step up your posting on day 2 to avoid being accuse of being mafia who want to attract as little attention as possible.
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EPT
