Observation 1: holy fuck he has lots of posts in this thread....
Since I can't recall and I really don't feel like digging through a couple hundred posts: LunarDestiny, have you played in a mafia game with clues before? Have you read through past mafia games with clues?
This isn't really relevant much I suppose though I'm curious.
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I'm not sure I agree with his general thoughts on how mafia goes from my experience reading games here in TL, but regardless I don't think that LD realized early on that this game is not a game like the ones he'd played in before.... I don't think this is really a deliberate attempt to mislead the town.
I do agree that inexperienced mafia are probably likely scared to put themselves in the spotlight and I'm fine with his vote on YellowInk, though it already foreshadows his very ... tempestuous, almost ... play in this game.
He's posted a mix of stuff that I feel is very legit and stuff that I think is way out there.
The fact that he's so obviously swinging around, committing himself ... I dunno, it's too obvious for me in a game like this. He's talking a lot in absolutes (and his clipped posting style accentuates this ... I get the feeling he's not a native English speaker from it).
Like I said before, mafia being Mayor is pretty much a GG. So I beg you guys to vote for Yellow Ink or change your vote to Yellow Ink.
At this point, I am very certain that both Darth and YellowInk are pro town (darth with his pm to inactive and yellowink for his posting behavior).
If Deuce is town, I want to apologies to LaXer and Pryo and will consider they 99.7% pro town.
Will probably take a more passive role from now on as my decision making is crap right now.
... there's a lot more in Day 1 and Day 2, but I didn't want to compile them all for want of space.
His day 2 vote is completely innocuous beside the vote-change from Darth. Darth's vote is a swing of six votes from Deuce to MooCow; LunarDestiny and Darth are essentially the only people who voted for MooCow when there was a legit chance for him to die.
What really gets me here is that there are legitimate points to make about LunarDestiny; he's very swingy, his game advice is suspect + Show Spoiler +
Mafia has a number of 6. So if they run for election. Their votes will be 6+others voting for them (who have no clue that they are voting for the mafia) which is HUGE.
Assumes that all mafia will vote for their own candidate; MTF has brought up a couple times that this is emphatically not true
I also want to suggest an alternative that might be very controversial. To lynch the pardoner on day2. This way, we eliminate the possibility that the mafia running for mayor but fail and get the pardoner role. This is just an alternative that we can use depending how the voting goes.
The timing on this is bad and it's generally bad play to go out and actively waste a lynch to possibly prevent ... wasting a lynch?
There's more, some of which stem from the fact LD's past games have a very different playerbase and no clues. But I think you get the idea here
I think he's trying way too hard to force himself into the spotlight and stay there though to be mafia, and he seems to have at least screwed his head on enough to not give up on the game like he suggested. He's had some flawed logic at times but he hasn't tried to press it on anyone....
Additional suggestion when reading clues: You know in movies, the most obvious clues that point to someone are often false. We can apply some of it here and expect that some clues were put in to mislead us. What I want to say is we can't believe that every clues are helpful and the only way to certify a clue is the use of clue check.
This matches up with my experiences, though it's odd that LD himself jumps at clues more than this post suggests he should.
He's at least looking at voting patterns, as seen by the voting times thing on Day 2 and now the Gilaboy/Deuce/MooCow vote post above.
If you use this logic on mafia then you will have a hard time finding the mafia:
The town accuses someone of being mafia. That person does not respond therefore not mafia.
If the mafia is reading the thread, sees that no response = not mafia ...? Think about that for a second.
Lying about the medic protection is very dumb if he is the mafia because role check would expose him. There is the possibility that he is the Godfather who is somewhat immune to the rolecheck but I don't think Godfather would want to take that risk especially so early in the game. If he is Godfather, I will give him the "balls of steel" award.
Etc. There's more, but I already closed most of the posts and I don't want to look again
@everyone: I was joking about bulletproof. I thought that was obvious o.O
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@Darth (and now @littlechava too):
Sure, if the mafia could just get up and choose they'd choose to lynch MooCow instead of Deuce, I'll buy that.
Thing is, unless either LunarDestiny or yourself is mafia, none of the mafia would have even been considering that possibility. MooCow dying was never, ever going to happen until you [Darth] switched your vote.
Your conclusion is right, there are almost assuredly mafia who voted for MooCow. But it's for the reason MTF keeps bringing up (spreading out votes is better), not for the reason you suggest.
Unless, like I said, either you or LunarDestiny is mafia.
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@zeks, DCL:
The wagon against Deuce was derailed by Darth. Don't mistake yourself that LunarDestiny put on the killing blow or that AFJ made the first argument and vote. Darth was a six-vote swing AND he's the mayor AND I gather he has the town's trust. Mentally remove Darth's vote-switch and go look at the voting history; there was no chance that MooCow was gonna die. And then suddenly with one swoop that at least I didn't see coming he's two votes away.
And if you don't think that being elected means anything, I'll just point you to Pyrry's game where we had a half-dozen people roleclaim to Shikyo and JeeJee for no reason other than that they were elected. I gather it used to happen a lot back in the older TL games too (back when the non-new-player games had elected roles, rofl).
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@LunarDestiny: There is a total of one vote before Darth makes his announcement (which itself was ~ 7 hours after day began) ... we have absolutely no information from today's votes. Honestly the only explanation I could see for not voting for oni (assuming he's mafia like he claims) is if you're a townie who suspects Darth. If you're mafia and a figure the town trusts comes out and says "I have a roleclaim that player A (whom the town was suspicious of anyway) is mafia" ... do you really think any of the mafia are that stupid?
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@Ink:
Not gonna do a full writeup, I'll just give my thoughts and a couple key reasons:
BrownBear
-I'd be pretty wary since I don't think I'd say he's posted anything of substance to date that others haven't said first. This is onihunter (and MooCow, for that matter, though without the "new player" bit) behavior except with what I feel is a more sketchy history (runs for office then fades out pretty hard except for a small portion of Day 2) and more words-per-post.
littlechava
-Not sure his clue analysis is worth anything ... he does some but doesn't seem to think that clues are the way to go. His "argument" with DCL was misunderstanding vs. misunderstanding as far as I could see; ... I really don't know.
Misder
-Starts off with clues, whatever, half the town did as much. Don't like the "no clue connections = don't lynch Deuce" thing. Don't like the activity patterns, though his posts do have substance. Him questioning Darth's source for oni = mafia likely hints toward town? I feel like the way he's thinking is good, but I really question his timing.
Notes on this post specifically: If oni is not at least miller, we ask Darth for his source. If he does not provide, we lynch Darth tomorrow. If Darth does provide, we then have to determine whether Darth is red or his source is red (or whether we should just lynch them both tomorrow anyway).
Thegilaboy
-Flips on YellowInk with the rest of the town ... his play speaks volumes about being new but he's not flaunting it (which is good); not terribly much content but I like the things he's said when he's been the person coming up with the ideas instead of the one following everyone's directives.
Definitely new, not the biggest asset for the town, but I think he's on our side.
zeks
-I notice his name doesn't have a capital "Z"; I feel like he's playing an awful lot like he did in Pyrry's game so I think he's town (even down to the exact same type of slip-ups). Most likely not a power role unless perhaps it's veteran.
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Also, I'm quite fine with pictures of hot chicks. Or are you just jealous that the girls are flocking to Darth and not you? :p
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@clues against me: If you guys put more stake in clues than in behavior, whatever, go vote me. Until I'm dead, I'll keep posting as I have been (time permitting). Personally the only profiles I've looked at have been the ones I've clicked to get to post histories, and I haven't even read any of the day posts except the parts in color (I guess I can thank Qatol for being a Godfather-claiming-townie-elected-mayor for those colors). But I've basically said as much before.
If you think my posting has been suspect, ask me questions. Or go vote to lynch me or something, I guess.
As an aside: the theme of my profile is just as much that Star Control 2 is fucking awesome (see sig, see picture) as it is about chance (and incidentally like I said earlier I didn't pick that quote because of the probability connections but because I see it as talking about arbitrary constructions that we find special for no real reason). I realize there's no reason for flamewheel to pull clues from the entirety of the profile though.
Also as an addendum to my last post, I didn't look at littlechava's two most recent posts except to see that he had commented on the Day 2 voting finish.
In addition, I don't agree with Darth about people who didn't switch after Darth not being suspicious. The mafia have to weigh the chance of looking terribly suspicious (switching) against eliminating a middle-of-the-road at best town-aligned player who's under heavy suspicion anyway and (in retrospect) likely would have drawn a vigi hit.
Well, duh? It'd also be nice if at least 75% (hell, 100% if we're at it) of the players played better than they are too.
If you're not gonna play though, it's best for the town if you just stop and take your modkill (and best for the mafia if you just meet the minimum requirements to not get modkilled)
I've been in PM contact with no one this game (except for our hosts, of course). I prefer to play in the thread, so I've not been sending PMs either. You can ask anyone alive if you want confirmation.
A bit surprising to me that literally no one has PM'd me, but there it is.
It's possible (though unlikely) that the bodyguard was found via a DT check, in which case I think the DT should step up and claim and let us know who he talked to.
Otherwise it was LaXer digging his own grave by telling people who he was. Dumb move, but at least it gives us something to work with.
Remaining player list, if we're looking for who called the shots last night:
I've not been in contact with anyone, so we can cross me off. I'm pretty sure we can get rid of Deuce and Hugo for this one too. Likely also CompX, Misder, deconduo, and sputnik.theory, and Thegilaboy.
Of the remaining players, Darth and MTF are definitely the most likely to have heard LaXer's role. LunarDestiny, BrownBear, and zeks wouldn't be out of the picture for me either.
I mean really, even AFTER we had our last discussion on this ... they've both since showed up and posted something (you'll note hugo dodged his modkill last night). Deuce isn't dead yet but I believe he merely has to vote today to stay alive?
@Zyrre: I'm not convinced there was a mass leak to the mafia. The only person we know for sure that the mafia hit because of his role is LaXer.
Look at AFJ's posting on Day 1 (i.e. there wasn't much and it was bad) then look at it on Day 2. He stepped up bigtime. Yes, he had the wrong target, as we promptly learned when the day ended. But I conceded that AFJ's arguments had merit even though I didn't agree with his conclusion. The thing here is that AFJ had some nice thinking and, importantly, he got the town to listen to him. This makes him a dangerous player for the mafia regardless of role.
Pyro certainly could have been leaked (but from the bit of his posting I saw I think he was too smart to tell anyone, so I'd suspect a DT checked him and then told a mafia in this case. But we can't prove this now anyway), but he equally well could have been chosen as an exceptionally safe target. What were the chances he was going to be protected Night 2? After just getting banned?
Obviously the mafia did not hit YellowInk because of his role (vanilla townie). Obviously the mafia did hit LaXer because they knew his role 100%. But that's the only case where we know this for sure.
Just noticed there's more posts coming up as I refreshed. Gonna go read those now.
Darth's DT in that case was almost certainly legit regardless, so let's take that for granted. If you're Darth as a townie, you clearly call out oni. If you're Darth as a mafia ... you probably still have to call it out because the DT is going to get the word out somehow and then I think after lynching oni the town lynches both the DT and Darth the next day. (There are other possibilities, but this one makes the most sense to me).
I think this is too dangerous for Darth to risk, so yeah, I certainly wouldn't be convinced that he's in the clear because he outed onihunter.
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Unless bum turns up miller (not gonna consider that right now) ->
I'll look at a couple possibilities: If Darth is red, clearly a fake DT is the same as no DT, so I'm not going to worry about fake DT here.
1) Darth is red, bum is not red, there is no DT: -> Bum is most likely not actually a miller; he flips non-red non-Miller and we ask Darth for a name for his DT and he makes one up. We then have to decide (like I already covered with oni) whether to lynch Darth, lynch Darth's DT, or both.
2) Darth is red, bum is red, there is no DT: -> Makes no sense.
3) bum is not red, there is a real DT (any alignment for Darth): -> Only makes sense if bum is miller
4) Darth is red, bum is red, there is a DT: -> This is a complicated scenario. I think Darth has to tell the town here, because if he doesn't then it's quite likely he'll get outed (DT tells someone else about the rolecheck) and both Darth and bum die. With only 4 mafia left I think it's very unlikely that we'd have all three of bum, Darth, and the DT actually be mafia and the DT "faking" a rolecheck and outing a buddy to get the town's trust.
5) Darth is not red, there is no DT (any alignment for bum) -> Makes no sense.
6) Darth is not red, bum is red, there is a DT: -> Obviously makes sense
7) Darth is not red, bum is not red, there is a fake DT: -> Only makes sense if the DT is red. From here we are at the same place as 1).
I think this covers all the scenarios worth considering. 1) and 7) are very similar ... I'd think 4) or 6) is more likely though.
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I think the town should consider mass roleclaiming at this point. There are two obvious ways to do it ... either we mass roleclaim publicly, or we mass roleclaim to a chosen player or set of players through PM and then those players tell the town who we should be looking at for mafia.
The benefit of the first way is that there are going to be no shenanigans except mafia lying about their roles, and if Darth is mafia I'd guess he knows a fair few roles already (he almost certainly knows at least 1 DT).
The benefit of the second way is that we're not necessarily telling the mafia who our power roles are. The risk is obviously that we choose a mafia in our list of players to PM and then have some shenanigans going on and additionally don't have the benefit of private claims.
If we private claim I'd suggest claiming to MTF, unless you believe he didn't actually soak up hits the first two nights.
Oh, and there's no way that both of my votes are staying on hugo and Deuce. They still look like they're doing the absolute minimum to dodge modkills. They both posted since the start of Night 3, so a vote from either one at any time today will dodge another modkill.
I'm leaving my vote on hugo because people have connected him to clues. Other vote for now is going on bum because we have a claim that a DT rolechecked him to be red.
On June 13 2010 09:26 DarthThienAn wrote: If you want to mass roleclaim through PMs, do it to at least two people so that you have your back covered.
Well, yeah.
But I don't have a good second person to suggest. Claiming to you doesn't seem to be a good idea right now. MTF has pretty good evidence to support him being town-aligned though.
EPT
