The Life Aquatic Mini Mafia

From: d3_crescentia [ 1353 posts | Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: are you green?
Date: 4/28/10 11:25
I asked if you were green. You said you wouldn't say your role but that you're pro-town. This lead me to believe you were blue, not green - which is why I brought up the curious case of Shockeyy and Ace. Now you say you don't actually have a night action?

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Original Message:
I never said I had a night action, where are you getting this from?

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Original Message:
who did you use your night action on?

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lol is it really that curious that I would say that, what were you expecting "no actually I am mafia!"

On brownbear, to me there just simply seems too little info to go on, he has posted sparcely but done nothing overtly mafialike to me and I am far more concerned with others, RoL for one thing as he has had no input whatsoever so far this game. Whats your plan to get more info on Johnny or is it one your keeping close to the chest?

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Original Message:
Curious that you'd say that. It reminds of the one time when Shockeyy roleclaimed to Ace in PM and then Ace got lynched him for it. I think I now understand why Ace did that, even though Shockeyy flipped blue.

Did Radfield say anything interesting last night? Sort of curious.

I don't have a strong opinion on Johnny yet, but I think I know a way about how to get more information. What about BrownBear?

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Original Message:
You are correct sir! Won't say my actual role but yeah I am pro-town.

What are your thoughts on Johnny? im wavering between him actually being suspicious or me just thinking he is because he jumped on an opportunity to cast suspicion on me and tbh i always tend to think people who accuse me are red when I am a town role. Korynne seems somewhat consistent with his posting style in the other mafia game and on a purely statistical basis he is more likely to be green in that one so good sign possibly.

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Original Message:
I think you are green

From: d3_crescentia [ 1364 posts | Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: are you green?
Date: 4/30/10 12:12
I actually changed my check between you, BrownBear and RoL several times then told myself to stop worrying about it and just go with someone.

I acknowledge that I do stupid things when I feel like I'm under pressure.

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Original Message:
No because it would actual make sense to check brownbear, but on the small possibility that you are being sincere, checking me was an absolutely idiotic thing to do for a DT and I'm suprised @ you, I thought I was meant to be the one who did stupid things xD

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Original Message:
*shrug* Probably was, but I'd be having an identical conversation with BrownBear should he have flipped green.

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Original Message:
I would have been prepared to consider the possibility had you not said you checked me, for the record that was your mistake.

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Original Message:
Sigh, I actually didn't think you would trust me - probably because I didn't trust you in the first place. I'd ask you to stop taking things at face value and consider why I did the things I did, but I was wrong to expect other people to think the same way I do or even try to understand what I'm doing when I've been going about things in a deliberately confusing way.

The way I thought was thus: if we get 3 confirmed alive townies by Day 3, counting myself - then we win, by process of elimination. And to make sure they survive, they need to be pretty loudmouthed and suspicious of each other in public (of course, allied in private). The Mafia should then target the voices of reason, and by Day 3 all of a sudden our three stooges come together and out the mafia, right there and then. I don't even have to claim DT publicly if the plan works - but the mafia would know what's up.

Of course, the problem is that if I were mafia, the strategy wouldn't really need to change at all. Funny thing, that.

Again, if you actually want to lynch me, I don't really blame you, since I turned this game into a total crapshoot with the Johnny lynch. Be careful of whoever else jumps on the lynch wagon with you, if you do decide to change your mind.

GG yo~

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Original Message:
You are clearly mafia and I shall do my utmost to have you lynched, wasting a vote on me, hell I am confirmed without you needing to check and your too intelligent not to realise that so thanks for confirming. I personally think your partner in crime is Hobbes but guess I'll see how we go. If you manage to persuade them not to believe me//lynch you tomorrow then guess you deserve the win...

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Original Message:
I thought I implied that I checked you tonight. If it wasn't clear, I'll just say this again - I checked you.

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Original Message:
Check brownbear tonight and see what he flips.

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Original Message:
Congratulations, you are now confirmed to be townie, not the Medic - which is what I was actually hoping you were. I am the Detective. I checked [nyc]hobbes on night 1, who also flipped town. I have enlisted the help of Korynne, who I decided to explicitly trust with all of my previous information.

My original intent was to play as scummy as possible yesterday without actually getting myself lynched, so that the next day the Mafia would leave me alive and try to get me lynched the following day when they can point to my scummitude. In the meantime, I would be checking players and establishing a town circle by PM. I apologize for the previous deception.

Given last night's recent shenanigans, though, I'd actually fully expect you not to trust me too readily. I'd been discussing the possibility of johnny being mafia with Hobbes last night, and we thought it might have been a good idea to switch. By the end of the day, though, I thought it would be perfectly acceptable to lynch BrownBear today even if he did flip green, as it would narrow the possibilities down by tomorrow.

Unfortunately, Hobbes pulled his vote off, and I panicked and made an accusation on Johnny that I hardly even believed myself after rereading it a second time... and then Johnny died and flipped green. It was a bit of a shame.

I actually would have been okay with pulling off this maneuver if there was more time to transpire, more dialogue, etc. so that it wouldn't be revealed that there was a likely PM circle between the three of us. But unfortunately at this point I am shaking my head and raging on the inside. I expect either myself, Hobbes or Korynne to die tonight.

On that note, if Korynne dies, you are put in a unique position of deciding whether or not me/Hobbes or Brownbear/RoL is more trustworthy. If you voted against me, I wouldn't really blame you.

If I/Hobbes dies, then you'll know the other is absolutely trustworthy. As I said before, my gut read of Korynne is green, and unless she says something blatantly red I don't expect my opinion of her to change.

And if you die, well - you can always ask Bill about the roles to confirm how retardedly risky I've been playing. It's true that I *do* have a way of overthinking things, but considering RoL is was my biggest suspect for being Mafia, I wanted to be sure I could baffle him for a second.

Well, if I die and we lose, then we all know who to blame! Good luck.

From: RebirthOfLeGenD [ 1815 posts | Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: Hi
Date: 4/30/10 13:53
sorry, townie.

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Original Message:
kk that makes sense, before you go what is your role?

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Original Message:
alas I am allowed! I can't really respond too much right now, I am writing a major research paper atm. By tomorrow I will have virtually all my work for the remaining two weeks of school done and can actually be really active after the fact. When I will do the majority of my posting will be tomorrow night after 10 when I get home from work. I will give my two mafia suspects since we don't have bullshit time anymore.

I just need to reread the entire thread and take more notes then I will have my suspects with 24 hours to make a decision on which one of them we feel more strongly against.

I will however respond to my thoughts on Cresentia. Claiming to "Act like mafia" is fucking retarded for so many reasons, especially if you are a power role. Pretending to be mafia will serve the purpose of drawing the ire of the town (especially Day 1) which is fucking horrible. IF he really is a detective that was the dumbest move he could of made, if we actually lynched him we would be in deep shit just like in MicroMafia2 when Vivi died the first day to a lynch.

On that note I was suspicious of him to begin with, if he PMed you yesterday/tonight with that PM I would say it could be a mafia power play to try to perfect the game. If you think about it they need one more mislynch and we automatically lose the game. He could be trying to build support of himself from PMing a few players in order to get the votes required for him to force the lynch on an innocent.

Since you say you feel you have played an obvious townie to everyone, I would say any mafia with DECENT behavior analysis skill could probably pin you out as not blue (since they have an idea of the game format anyway) he could of claimed to you having a good idea of you being green and building support preemptively for his game winning lynch.

What I would advise you to do is keep talking to him, however watch out for anyone who votes with him and do NOT do as he says entirely. Use your brain and make the most LOGICAL decision. Reread MULTIPLE times before making your vote because with 4 players down they need 4 to get a lynch since its autolynch@majority, that means if you see someone get two votes on them be careful to place that third vote because the mafia can easily force the lynch at that moment and end the game.

We need to be VERY careful and utterly certain before casting any single vote on the next day because it opens up the ability for the mafia to force a mislynch.

Tomorrow I am going to be inactive most of the day (until about 10 at night as I said above) so I would ask if you would post my above warning about the certainty we must take before casting a vote, since 2 wrong votes on a person means the mafia can force the bad lynch.

On that note I want you to know this right now and keep an eye out and stay vigilant. The mafia are most likely going to get sloppy the next day. They are going to get overzealous with the possibility at finishing the game so keep an eye out, reread every post during tomorrow. Anyone who is posting a LOT especially if they are continuously attacking one person is most likely a mafia trying to aggressively finish the game.

Stay vigilant and we can still take this back, lets hope my analysis is up to scratch as it has been the last few games.


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Original Message:
If you have been following the game it should be fairly clear to you I am green.

Cresentia has roleclaimed detective to me and also claimed he has checked me and I have come back green (he is correct in this, I am green), however from following the thread it is obvious that I am green or pro-town without needing to check, his wasting of a check on me is enough in itself to tell me he is lying in his detective claim and is red.

In my opinion, before his PMing me it seemed fairly obvious that the two mafia lie in either cresentia, hobbes and Kor, my instinct being Cresentia and Hobbes, cresentia for this development and other thing's I've outlined in the thread and I guess you can add his vote for Johnny on top of that, Hobbes because of his manner of kinda keeping under the radar, not overly engaging in analysis and getting away with posting little of value but enough to semi-justify his votes.

Ofc Kor is a possibility too.

All of this is highly dependant on you being green however, or blue although I personally think that the set up this game is 2 mafia 7 greens.

Anyway respond yo, you might not be allowed back in the game but whilst you still can I want your input ^^

From: BrownBear [ 167 posts | Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Yo
Date: 4/30/10 22:34
So this may be hard to believe, but I am actually the third townie. I realize you're probably skeptical given my level of activity + voting for d3 yesterday, but I was following similar logic to you for believing that d3 was mafia (he was making some fun, hilarious bonehead choices + drawing attention to himself).

So, for what it's worth, I'm townie. I have sent a similar PM to Hobbes.

From: BrownBear [ 176 posts | Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: The Obvious
Date: 5/1/10 14:19
I guess it comes down to the fact that, even if I know I am 100% correct, the fact remains that I still have to convince people that I am correct. That's what my analysis tried to do. I started writing it before the voting all happened and my logic was thus:

I know Korynne and RoL are both mafia
RoL is pretty much confirmed mafia
Korynne is going to be far more difficult to convince people about

That's what my analysis tried to do: point out that Korynne was the most obvious choice to lynch today, as that represented the most likely path to victory and me survivng: If I can get the difficult lynch out of the way today, RoL will die easily tomorrow, and we will win. Unfortunately, while I was writing all the analysis, all the voting happened, so my plan went to shit, and at that point, I was implicated in everyone's minds as the second mafia.

I still maintain I am not, but so it goes. I hope this all makes sense to you.

-BB

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Original Message:
Brown that is something that should have been just as obvious during the voting, I'm asking you to explain why it was not as the only possibility of you not being mafia rests on you not understanding those obvious things at the voting stage.

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Original Message:
It is very plainly obvious. I'm sure you'd read my analysis, but that was written during the time when all the voting happened. At this point, who I vote for is more or less irrelevant.

I mean, I could change my vote to RoL, but at this point, would it do anything? Here's what could happen:

I change my vote, RoL flips red, everyone still cries "SCUM" on me and lynches me.

I don't change my vote, RoL flips red, everyone cries "SCUM" and lynches me.

So, unless you think Korynne is mafia and are willing to vote for her tomorrow, what does it matter what I do? I'm not meaning to attack you, I'm just curious.

-BB

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Original Message:
Why is it not plainly obvious to you that the two mafia, in the event of you being town, are RoL and Korynne.
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