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TL Mafia XXII - Page 14

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
April 17 2010 21:34 GMT
#261
aaaaand BC with the rules snipe
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
April 17 2010 21:37 GMT
#262
On April 18 2010 06:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 06:29 KF91 wrote:
On April 18 2010 06:17 Radfield wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 18 2010 06:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ill bring this post up as well, why not start here.

Town cannot afford 5-7 mislynches. Period. Your entire count depends on mafia KP being stopped by meds + vet hits. However any of those mis lynches could off a vet or med. With 5 mis lynches and no unstopped hits by red (assume no blue kp used or assassin KP) town loses. 25 of 38 players would be dead, leaving 13 alive, 8 of them red. Game ends.

With Double lynches + vigi's + hatters + assassins. Game will end very quickly unless everyone hits reds accurately. If everything goes wrong for town we lose at end of day 3, as alot of KP will have been used by then.


Yeah, we should plan for worst case scenarios - but we all know that the game will 95% not be over on day 3. This plays into the timing of double lynch. I think we should wait no longer than Day 4 to do it (meaning we vote for double lynch on Day 3). However this is all dependent on the events of the previous days. If we're in a hole, might want to start it on Day 3; or if we catch some reds via DT or they scumtell.

Often i find these time limits for town are a useful thought experiment but rarely if ever do the games actually play out that way



Day four seems like a long time to wait to use our first double lynch. We get three of them this game, and if people are talking about town possibly being in trouble by day 4 or 5 we may not get to use them all. That would be unfortunate. I'm not necessarily saying we should use them super early, but we should at least think about it. The danger would be trimming down our numbers even more if we're wrong, but that danger always exists with lynching. If we did vote for the double lynch, and then were unsure of who to take out, the option also exists to avoid a majority vote and not lynch a second person(although i'm not sure that makes sense to waste it like that). Also, is that even allowed? Can we vote for the double lynch and then end up only lynching one person?


I think Radfield is right; we should use our double lynch earlier.

Although people might argue that we have less of a chance to hit one mafia with the double lynch, it also lowers the chances of hitting a blue role if we do it on day one or two, instead of waiting until day 3 or 4.


Sadly the first day its usable is day 3. :p reading is fun


Whoops. Don't I feel smart.

Anyways, does it make sense for use to vote for the double lynch at the earliest opportunity? If people think we could be in trouble early, then increasing the KP of the town early seems like a good strat.
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7875 Posts
April 17 2010 21:44 GMT
#263
On April 18 2010 06:37 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 06:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On April 18 2010 06:29 KF91 wrote:
On April 18 2010 06:17 Radfield wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On April 18 2010 06:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ill bring this post up as well, why not start here.

Town cannot afford 5-7 mislynches. Period. Your entire count depends on mafia KP being stopped by meds + vet hits. However any of those mis lynches could off a vet or med. With 5 mis lynches and no unstopped hits by red (assume no blue kp used or assassin KP) town loses. 25 of 38 players would be dead, leaving 13 alive, 8 of them red. Game ends.

With Double lynches + vigi's + hatters + assassins. Game will end very quickly unless everyone hits reds accurately. If everything goes wrong for town we lose at end of day 3, as alot of KP will have been used by then.


Yeah, we should plan for worst case scenarios - but we all know that the game will 95% not be over on day 3. This plays into the timing of double lynch. I think we should wait no longer than Day 4 to do it (meaning we vote for double lynch on Day 3). However this is all dependent on the events of the previous days. If we're in a hole, might want to start it on Day 3; or if we catch some reds via DT or they scumtell.

Often i find these time limits for town are a useful thought experiment but rarely if ever do the games actually play out that way



Day four seems like a long time to wait to use our first double lynch. We get three of them this game, and if people are talking about town possibly being in trouble by day 4 or 5 we may not get to use them all. That would be unfortunate. I'm not necessarily saying we should use them super early, but we should at least think about it. The danger would be trimming down our numbers even more if we're wrong, but that danger always exists with lynching. If we did vote for the double lynch, and then were unsure of who to take out, the option also exists to avoid a majority vote and not lynch a second person(although i'm not sure that makes sense to waste it like that). Also, is that even allowed? Can we vote for the double lynch and then end up only lynching one person?


I think Radfield is right; we should use our double lynch earlier.

Although people might argue that we have less of a chance to hit one mafia with the double lynch, it also lowers the chances of hitting a blue role if we do it on day one or two, instead of waiting until day 3 or 4.


Sadly the first day its usable is day 3. :p reading is fun


Whoops. Don't I feel smart.

Anyways, does it make sense for use to vote for the double lynch at the earliest opportunity? If people think we could be in trouble early, then increasing the KP of the town early seems like a good strat.


Double lynch works as a vote we can Vote for day 2 to activate day 3. By day 3, it is actually insanely intelligent to use.

I was more arguing zona's statement that we can afford 5 - 7 miss lynches. This is only feasible if we have already hit reds in some sort. But even then, it requires hitting at least 2 reds in the first 5 days, or meds (who traditionally suck at making saves) never do anything productive. Town has to play insanely well till day 3, then after day 3 lynch voting, we can calculate how we have to play from there. DT's by day 3 can create a circle (this is why they don't just look for reds). Day 3, we can double lynch based off DT findings. You can also confirm dts via this method in a day or so, you can also force mafia to choose their targets on where they hit, and meds also have a list to make saves from. etc....

Day 3 is where the game really starts. Anything before then will be done purely through analysis from townies.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
meeple
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada10211 Posts
April 17 2010 21:50 GMT
#264
I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. I was under the impression that a double lynch is to be used when we have lots of info and little time... Maybe by Day 4 or 5. The chances of it hitting townies on Day3 is pretty good... and mafia would just love if we crippled ourselves.
[NyC]HoBbes
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States803 Posts
April 17 2010 21:58 GMT
#265
I also disagree with using the double lynch on day 3. Wait until we actually know what we're doing with it, don't throw it away at the earliest possible opportunity
Where'er you walk cool gales shall fan the glade
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7875 Posts
April 17 2010 22:04 GMT
#266
On April 18 2010 06:58 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
I also disagree with using the double lynch on day 3. Wait until we actually know what we're doing with it, don't throw it away at the earliest possible opportunity


there are 3 double lynches. The longer the game gets, the less likely they get used based on how many mafia are remaining alive. Unless the town does really well early on, the double lynches are needed. Using all 3 are very unlikely, and by day 3 the amount of information garnered is more than enough to lynch two people.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
Osmoses
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Sweden5302 Posts
April 17 2010 22:08 GMT
#267
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?
Excuse me hun, but what is your name? Vivian? I woke up next to you naked and, uh, did we, um?
KF91
Profile Blog Joined March 2007
Canada221 Posts
April 17 2010 22:09 GMT
#268
On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote:
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?


I don't think so; because the later the game goes on, the ratio between mafia and townie gets closer to 1:1. So saying if we don't get any mafia kills at all for the first few days, mafia could easily rig the second lynch to kill a townie they want dead.
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7875 Posts
April 17 2010 22:12 GMT
#269
On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote:
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?


In theory it does make sense to save them. The problem however is everyone gets to vote on to use them. The longer the game goes on the less people their are in the town.
Now, that is good in the sense there is a smaller pool to kill from, it is bad however because the mafia get a much more controlling stake in the double lynch use.

Day 3 usually will have a few very solid suspects to lynch from. Even if they flip town their death gives alot of information.
That information could be in the form of giving town a lead on reds based on who was strongly accusing said member, a list of names that person believed was red, etc...

Every death gives information. Every post gives information. Ever discussion gives it.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
April 17 2010 22:20 GMT
#270
On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote:
I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. I was under the impression that a double lynch is to be used when we have lots of info and little time... Maybe by Day 4 or 5. The chances of it hitting townies on Day3 is pretty good... and mafia would just love if we crippled ourselves.

There are 38 players in the game. If we vote to use double lynch on day 2 (and thus it would be activated for day 3 lynch), then at the time of use, 2 days will have already passed. Ignoring medic saves cause medics always suck unless your name is Scamp, mafia will have killed 8 people. It'd be a safe assumption that by then at least one assassin/vigilante/mad hatter would have killed someone by then. So give or take by then 9 people will have died during the night, and 2 of our lynches brings the total up to 11. Seems reasonable that 10 to 11 people will be dead when we decide our day 3 lynch. That's going to be 28 people alive.

Considering there are 3 double lynches, waiting to use seems like a terrible idea. Waiting another day is probably another 4-6 people dead (pending vigi/assassin hits and hatters dying and such). That's roughly 23 people alive. Even assuming by then 2 mafia are already dead, 6 mafia to 23ish people is cutting it close.

And for good measure...
On April 18 2010 05:43 meeple wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote:
Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm.


It was a possibility that he said to exploit if possible... I wouldn't say that his plan hinged on it. In fact, it was a fairly minor part of the plan.

NOBODY CARES! POST SOMETHING OF VALUE PLEASE!
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
meeple
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada10211 Posts
April 17 2010 22:24 GMT
#271
Its a pretty big game... I don't think we'll have too much trouble using up the double lynches. It's better that it be unused than we use it as a scattershot in the hopes of nailing red. Just because we have them... doesn't mean we absolutely have to use them.

@BC... Every death gives information, but it might not be entirely useful information, and I would rather get information from discussion then an innocent townie's death.
KF91
Profile Blog Joined March 2007
Canada221 Posts
April 17 2010 22:26 GMT
#272
On April 13 2010 11:22 flamewheel91 wrote:
Clues:
No clues. I will not have the time, most likely.


I don't think there will be any clues in the day posts with the deaths, unless you guys are referring to the reactions of people after the night post. O.o
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7875 Posts
April 17 2010 22:26 GMT
#273
On April 18 2010 07:24 meeple wrote:
Its a pretty big game... I don't think we'll have too much trouble using up the double lynches. It's better that it be unused than we use it as a scattershot in the hopes of nailing red. Just because we have them... doesn't mean we absolutely have to use them.

@BC... Every death gives information, but it might not be entirely useful information, and I would rather get information from discussion then an innocent townie's death.


As would I. However I will take any information given. There have already been a few tells in the last few pages on players, so keep it coming.

As a note (although foolishness will post nobody cares) Ill be back in around 6 hours after I'm home from work.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
meeple
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada10211 Posts
April 17 2010 22:32 GMT
#274
On April 18 2010 07:20 Foolishness wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote:
I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. I was under the impression that a double lynch is to be used when we have lots of info and little time... Maybe by Day 4 or 5. The chances of it hitting townies on Day3 is pretty good... and mafia would just love if we crippled ourselves.

There are 38 players in the game. If we vote to use double lynch on day 2 (and thus it would be activated for day 3 lynch), then at the time of use, 2 days will have already passed. Ignoring medic saves cause medics always suck unless your name is Scamp, mafia will have killed 8 people. It'd be a safe assumption that by then at least one assassin/vigilante/mad hatter would have killed someone by then. So give or take by then 9 people will have died during the night, and 2 of our lynches brings the total up to 11. Seems reasonable that 10 to 11 people will be dead when we decide our day 3 lynch. That's going to be 28 people alive.

Considering there are 3 double lynches, waiting to use seems like a terrible idea. Waiting another day is probably another 4-6 people dead (pending vigi/assassin hits and hatters dying and such). That's roughly 23 people alive. Even assuming by then 2 mafia are already dead, 6 mafia to 23ish people is cutting it close.

And for good measure...
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 05:43 meeple wrote:
On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote:
Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm.


It was a possibility that he said to exploit if possible... I wouldn't say that his plan hinged on it. In fact, it was a fairly minor part of the plan.

NOBODY CARES! POST SOMETHING OF VALUE PLEASE!


That's like the worst case scenario... you're not counting medic saves and veteran buffs... but still I concede by Day 3 we'll likely be whittled down. In my mind, it still doesn't justify killing more people unless we've got a solid lead on them. Like I said before, the double lynch is when we have more clues/solid leads than we can lynch... I don't want us to go to the polls and off two randoms because we don't know what to do with our lynches.

Also... a response to Zona's attack on BC isn't useless... if anything you should be attacking the people who have posted shit all, like BM, but even then it's not doing anything constructive... other than pointing out what everyone already knows
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
April 17 2010 22:42 GMT
#275
Good morning (or evening), fellow Liquidians. Some basic conclusions that we can make based on the ruleset:

1) The number of Assassins in this game is either: at least 2. It wouldn't make sense only if there was only 1 Assassin, and there being zero in this game would make even less sense.
2) Assumption: Mafia KP is Number/2 rounded up. Then, if we play strictly by Lynches/NK, we would have to lynch a Mafia by Day 4. We are then required to have 100% accuracy with our lynches, and the REQUIRED use of double lynches on subsequent days.

Therefore it should be safe to use one of our double-lynches on Day 3, so long as we don't suffer any accidental townie casualties by Vigis or Assassins. The problem is that it shortens the town lifespan by about a day if we fail to lynch. Generally speaking, Day 3 is the turning point of most games so it seems reasonable to vote for a double then, but I'd rather wait and see how people are posting so far.

Things that I have noticed:
1) BM completely not reading how Assassins work with his outlandish plan. They have limited NKs and rolechecks.
2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
April 17 2010 22:50 GMT
#276
On April 18 2010 07:32 meeple wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 07:20 Foolishness wrote:
On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote:
I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. I was under the impression that a double lynch is to be used when we have lots of info and little time... Maybe by Day 4 or 5. The chances of it hitting townies on Day3 is pretty good... and mafia would just love if we crippled ourselves.

There are 38 players in the game. If we vote to use double lynch on day 2 (and thus it would be activated for day 3 lynch), then at the time of use, 2 days will have already passed. Ignoring medic saves cause medics always suck unless your name is Scamp, mafia will have killed 8 people. It'd be a safe assumption that by then at least one assassin/vigilante/mad hatter would have killed someone by then. So give or take by then 9 people will have died during the night, and 2 of our lynches brings the total up to 11. Seems reasonable that 10 to 11 people will be dead when we decide our day 3 lynch. That's going to be 28 people alive.

Considering there are 3 double lynches, waiting to use seems like a terrible idea. Waiting another day is probably another 4-6 people dead (pending vigi/assassin hits and hatters dying and such). That's roughly 23 people alive. Even assuming by then 2 mafia are already dead, 6 mafia to 23ish people is cutting it close.

And for good measure...
On April 18 2010 05:43 meeple wrote:
On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote:
Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm.


It was a possibility that he said to exploit if possible... I wouldn't say that his plan hinged on it. In fact, it was a fairly minor part of the plan.

NOBODY CARES! POST SOMETHING OF VALUE PLEASE!


That's like the worst case scenario... you're not counting medic saves and veteran buffs... but still I concede by Day 3 we'll likely be whittled down. In my mind, it still doesn't justify killing more people unless we've got a solid lead on them. Like I said before, the double lynch is when we have more clues/solid leads than we can lynch... I don't want us to go to the polls and off two randoms because we don't know what to do with our lynches.

Also... a response to Zona's attack on BC isn't useless... if anything you should be attacking the people who have posted shit all, like BM, but even then it's not doing anything constructive... other than pointing out what everyone already knows

It goes well without saying that planning for the worst case scenario is much better than "hoping" for some medic saves and Vets taking hits and mafia being stupid. I've been in games where the town could've saved itself if it had double lynched earlier. Instead town was left in a situation where they needed both their double lynches to hit mafia in order to win. You can probably guess what happened.

Yes, I should listen to you and attack BC, who's posted shit all game...except he's actually contributing. Right now everyone disagrees with BC. But wait a minute! Something's not right here! BC told everyone to attack him (and caller and Ace) in his first post, and to not trust him at all. So all YOU have done is conformed to HIS plan, and act in a way that he totally anticipated and even wanted.

Great job doing exactly what BC wanted! Not only have you provided us with essential information, you've also made high quality posts alerting all of us of how BC is full of crap! If there were elections I'd so be voting for you right now. I'd also be telling everyone else of how godly you are at mafia. Can you teach me your secrets?

Perhaps it'd be best if you just start licking my testicles right now.
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
April 17 2010 22:58 GMT
#277
On April 18 2010 07:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well.
I've already brought this up, and BC has replied.
On April 18 2010 06:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 06:12 madnessman wrote:
On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On April 18 2010 05:36 Zona wrote:
Hah, as I post you I see that you are still making arguments based on the idea DTs can PM. Confirmed townies are somewhat useful in a game without out of thread communications, but are a LOT LESS USEFUL THAN FINDING MAFIA. When a town member has to be publicly confirmed, the value is a lot less.

I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town.



If you are unable to figure out how a DT can create a town circle by clearing townies in this format I have no inclination to tell you. IT IS INSANELY EASY. Dropping mafia down to a list of x people is alot easier than sacrificing a DT for one red. As hey, I doubt we have 1 dt for every red. Remember, with millers around a checked red is never a confirmed red. Whereas a checked green or blue is more likely town as only 1 gf is alive to infiltrate. Assassins show up as what they are.
I would have to agree with Zona and say that it seemed pretty clear cut to me that nobody besides mafia are granted the ability to PM. It'd be really complicated and confusing. If you're a special blue role (say DT), and you PM a green role, he/she would be unable to respond. If you PM a red role, is the mafia member allowed to PM you back? Mafia are given the ability to PM, but that's assuming it's for use within their own mafia circle to choose their hits. And then mafia would know you have a special blue role.. If you PM a fellow blue role, you may only start your town circle if he/she has also been granted special PMing abilities. So basically, you'd be PMing people based on a hunch that they are blue, and I suppose there's a decent chance that you end up PMing a fellow blue if you're good at behavioral analysis. But then he/she might not also have the special PM ability. And just by PMing somebody, you're giving away information that you have a special role. So yeah... flamewheel creating special PM abilities just seemed very unlikely and too complicated to moderate.

Either way, I think Zona has cleared it up that forming town circles are impossible since town-aligned players don't have PM abilities. So I'm not exactly sure what you're arguing in the quote above o_O.


You do not need PM's to form town circles. Seriously. Only the Dt's can form the circle effectively. I make reference to if they have the ability use it. If not you play without it, its pretty simple. In this game, with 38 players there will be anywhere between 2 and 4 dts most likely, lets for this argument say there are 3. Those 3 are able to form a circle easily. Hell, even greens can form a town circle with a bit of work, but it takes alot more work on their part than dts.
I interpret this to mean that BC thinks a good plan of action would be for DT's to garner a list of confirmed townies/blue roles, and then post them publicly so as to create a 'town circle'. I've personally always thought that 'town circle' implied private communication, but I guess I'm mistaken... The thing about this plan is that it would require the DT to roleclaim later on in the game. Sure, by putting him/herself in the public sphere, medics will know who to protect. But with mafia role blocker and assassins, I don't know whether the town and DT will necessarily be in a better off position because the DT can't have guaranteed protection. I agree with BC in that there are definitely pros to knowing who the DT has checked, so mad hatters/vigils don't hit the wrong people, and DT's don't waste hits checking people who have already been checked, etc etc. But I don't want to sacrifice a DT for the sake of knowing 2-3 confirmed townies. I guess the DT should see first what roles he is able to collect from role checks, and determine whether he thinks his information is worth the risk of RCing (eg. if he has found mafia, he might think it more important to publicly share his list with the town)...
meeple
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada10211 Posts
April 17 2010 23:05 GMT
#278
On April 18 2010 07:50 Foolishness wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 07:32 meeple wrote:
On April 18 2010 07:20 Foolishness wrote:
On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote:
I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. I was under the impression that a double lynch is to be used when we have lots of info and little time... Maybe by Day 4 or 5. The chances of it hitting townies on Day3 is pretty good... and mafia would just love if we crippled ourselves.

There are 38 players in the game. If we vote to use double lynch on day 2 (and thus it would be activated for day 3 lynch), then at the time of use, 2 days will have already passed. Ignoring medic saves cause medics always suck unless your name is Scamp, mafia will have killed 8 people. It'd be a safe assumption that by then at least one assassin/vigilante/mad hatter would have killed someone by then. So give or take by then 9 people will have died during the night, and 2 of our lynches brings the total up to 11. Seems reasonable that 10 to 11 people will be dead when we decide our day 3 lynch. That's going to be 28 people alive.

Considering there are 3 double lynches, waiting to use seems like a terrible idea. Waiting another day is probably another 4-6 people dead (pending vigi/assassin hits and hatters dying and such). That's roughly 23 people alive. Even assuming by then 2 mafia are already dead, 6 mafia to 23ish people is cutting it close.

And for good measure...
On April 18 2010 05:43 meeple wrote:
On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote:
Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm.


It was a possibility that he said to exploit if possible... I wouldn't say that his plan hinged on it. In fact, it was a fairly minor part of the plan.

NOBODY CARES! POST SOMETHING OF VALUE PLEASE!


That's like the worst case scenario... you're not counting medic saves and veteran buffs... but still I concede by Day 3 we'll likely be whittled down. In my mind, it still doesn't justify killing more people unless we've got a solid lead on them. Like I said before, the double lynch is when we have more clues/solid leads than we can lynch... I don't want us to go to the polls and off two randoms because we don't know what to do with our lynches.

Also... a response to Zona's attack on BC isn't useless... if anything you should be attacking the people who have posted shit all, like BM, but even then it's not doing anything constructive... other than pointing out what everyone already knows

It goes well without saying that planning for the worst case scenario is much better than "hoping" for some medic saves and Vets taking hits and mafia being stupid. I've been in games where the town could've saved itself if it had double lynched earlier. Instead town was left in a situation where they needed both their double lynches to hit mafia in order to win. You can probably guess what happened.

Yes, I should listen to you and attack BC, who's posted shit all game...except he's actually contributing. Right now everyone disagrees with BC. But wait a minute! Something's not right here! BC told everyone to attack him (and caller and Ace) in his first post, and to not trust him at all. So all YOU have done is conformed to HIS plan, and act in a way that he totally anticipated and even wanted.

Great job doing exactly what BC wanted! Not only have you provided us with essential information, you've also made high quality posts alerting all of us of how BC is full of crap! If there were elections I'd so be voting for you right now. I'd also be telling everyone else of how godly you are at mafia. Can you teach me your secrets?

Perhaps it'd be best if you just start licking my testicles right now.


I never said to attack BC... in fact... I defended him when Zona was attacking him. I said BM as in Bill Murray, perhaps you just misread there. So yeah... you probably want to start licking those balls yourself.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
April 17 2010 23:06 GMT
#279
On April 18 2010 07:58 madnessman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 07:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well.
I've already brought this up, and BC has replied.
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2010 06:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On April 18 2010 06:12 madnessman wrote:
On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On April 18 2010 05:36 Zona wrote:
Hah, as I post you I see that you are still making arguments based on the idea DTs can PM. Confirmed townies are somewhat useful in a game without out of thread communications, but are a LOT LESS USEFUL THAN FINDING MAFIA. When a town member has to be publicly confirmed, the value is a lot less.

I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town.



If you are unable to figure out how a DT can create a town circle by clearing townies in this format I have no inclination to tell you. IT IS INSANELY EASY. Dropping mafia down to a list of x people is alot easier than sacrificing a DT for one red. As hey, I doubt we have 1 dt for every red. Remember, with millers around a checked red is never a confirmed red. Whereas a checked green or blue is more likely town as only 1 gf is alive to infiltrate. Assassins show up as what they are.
I would have to agree with Zona and say that it seemed pretty clear cut to me that nobody besides mafia are granted the ability to PM. It'd be really complicated and confusing. If you're a special blue role (say DT), and you PM a green role, he/she would be unable to respond. If you PM a red role, is the mafia member allowed to PM you back? Mafia are given the ability to PM, but that's assuming it's for use within their own mafia circle to choose their hits. And then mafia would know you have a special blue role.. If you PM a fellow blue role, you may only start your town circle if he/she has also been granted special PMing abilities. So basically, you'd be PMing people based on a hunch that they are blue, and I suppose there's a decent chance that you end up PMing a fellow blue if you're good at behavioral analysis. But then he/she might not also have the special PM ability. And just by PMing somebody, you're giving away information that you have a special role. So yeah... flamewheel creating special PM abilities just seemed very unlikely and too complicated to moderate.

Either way, I think Zona has cleared it up that forming town circles are impossible since town-aligned players don't have PM abilities. So I'm not exactly sure what you're arguing in the quote above o_O.


You do not need PM's to form town circles. Seriously. Only the Dt's can form the circle effectively. I make reference to if they have the ability use it. If not you play without it, its pretty simple. In this game, with 38 players there will be anywhere between 2 and 4 dts most likely, lets for this argument say there are 3. Those 3 are able to form a circle easily. Hell, even greens can form a town circle with a bit of work, but it takes alot more work on their part than dts.
I interpret this to mean that BC thinks a good plan of action would be for DT's to garner a list of confirmed townies/blue roles, and then post them publicly so as to create a 'town circle'. I've personally always thought that 'town circle' implied private communication, but I guess I'm mistaken... The thing about this plan is that it would require the DT to roleclaim later on in the game. Sure, by putting him/herself in the public sphere, medics will know who to protect. But with mafia role blocker and assassins, I don't know whether the town and DT will necessarily be in a better off position because the DT can't have guaranteed protection. I agree with BC in that there are definitely pros to knowing who the DT has checked, so mad hatters/vigils don't hit the wrong people, and DT's don't waste hits checking people who have already been checked, etc etc. But I don't want to sacrifice a DT for the sake of knowing 2-3 confirmed townies. I guess the DT should see first what roles he is able to collect from role checks, and determine whether he thinks his information is worth the risk of RCing (eg. if he has found mafia, he might think it more important to publicly share his list with the town)...


DTs should of course show discretion on when they RC in order to post their list, but they have to do it at some point, otherwise what good are they? One person's non-RC'd opinion probably won't be able to sway the town to lynch mafia/not lynch townies, especially when there are no clues.
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
April 17 2010 23:14 GMT
#280
On April 18 2010 07:50 Foolishness wrote:
Perhaps it'd be best if you just start licking my testicles right now.


On April 18 2010 08:05 meeple wrote:
So yeah... you probably want to start licking those balls yourself.

Wow.... Language please. This kind of posting has no useful purpose in mafia games at all. Please just stop.
Uff Da
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