EPTTL Mafia XXII - Page 14
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 18 2010 06:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Sadly the first day its usable is day 3. :p reading is fun Whoops. Don't I feel smart. Anyways, does it make sense for use to vote for the double lynch at the earliest opportunity? If people think we could be in trouble early, then increasing the KP of the town early seems like a good strat. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On April 18 2010 06:37 Radfield wrote: Whoops. Don't I feel smart. Anyways, does it make sense for use to vote for the double lynch at the earliest opportunity? If people think we could be in trouble early, then increasing the KP of the town early seems like a good strat. Double lynch works as a vote we can Vote for day 2 to activate day 3. By day 3, it is actually insanely intelligent to use. I was more arguing zona's statement that we can afford 5 - 7 miss lynches. This is only feasible if we have already hit reds in some sort. But even then, it requires hitting at least 2 reds in the first 5 days, or meds (who traditionally suck at making saves) never do anything productive. Town has to play insanely well till day 3, then after day 3 lynch voting, we can calculate how we have to play from there. DT's by day 3 can create a circle (this is why they don't just look for reds). Day 3, we can double lynch based off DT findings. You can also confirm dts via this method in a day or so, you can also force mafia to choose their targets on where they hit, and meds also have a list to make saves from. etc.... Day 3 is where the game really starts. Anything before then will be done purely through analysis from townies.  | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
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[NyC]HoBbes
United States803 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On April 18 2010 06:58 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: I also disagree with using the double lynch on day 3. Wait until we actually know what we're doing with it, don't throw it away at the earliest possible opportunity there are 3 double lynches. The longer the game gets, the less likely they get used based on how many mafia are remaining alive. Unless the town does really well early on, the double lynches are needed. Using all 3 are very unlikely, and by day 3 the amount of information garnered is more than enough to lynch two people. | ||
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Osmoses
Sweden5302 Posts
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote: I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on? I don't think so; because the later the game goes on, the ratio between mafia and townie gets closer to 1:1. So saying if we don't get any mafia kills at all for the first few days, mafia could easily rig the second lynch to kill a townie they want dead. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote: I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on? In theory it does make sense to save them. The problem however is everyone gets to vote on to use them. The longer the game goes on the less people their are in the town. Now, that is good in the sense there is a smaller pool to kill from, it is bad however because the mafia get a much more controlling stake in the double lynch use. Day 3 usually will have a few very solid suspects to lynch from. Even if they flip town their death gives alot of information. That information could be in the form of giving town a lead on reds based on who was strongly accusing said member, a list of names that person believed was red, etc... Every death gives information. Every post gives information. Ever discussion gives it. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote: I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. I was under the impression that a double lynch is to be used when we have lots of info and little time... Maybe by Day 4 or 5. The chances of it hitting townies on Day3 is pretty good... and mafia would just love if we crippled ourselves. There are 38 players in the game. If we vote to use double lynch on day 2 (and thus it would be activated for day 3 lynch), then at the time of use, 2 days will have already passed. Ignoring medic saves cause medics always suck unless your name is Scamp, mafia will have killed 8 people. It'd be a safe assumption that by then at least one assassin/vigilante/mad hatter would have killed someone by then. So give or take by then 9 people will have died during the night, and 2 of our lynches brings the total up to 11. Seems reasonable that 10 to 11 people will be dead when we decide our day 3 lynch. That's going to be 28 people alive. Considering there are 3 double lynches, waiting to use seems like a terrible idea. Waiting another day is probably another 4-6 people dead (pending vigi/assassin hits and hatters dying and such). That's roughly 23 people alive. Even assuming by then 2 mafia are already dead, 6 mafia to 23ish people is cutting it close. And for good measure... On April 18 2010 05:43 meeple wrote: It was a possibility that he said to exploit if possible... I wouldn't say that his plan hinged on it. In fact, it was a fairly minor part of the plan. NOBODY CARES! POST SOMETHING OF VALUE PLEASE! | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
@BC... Every death gives information, but it might not be entirely useful information, and I would rather get information from discussion then an innocent townie's death. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On April 13 2010 11:22 flamewheel91 wrote: Clues: No clues. I will not have the time, most likely. I don't think there will be any clues in the day posts with the deaths, unless you guys are referring to the reactions of people after the night post. O.o | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On April 18 2010 07:24 meeple wrote: Its a pretty big game... I don't think we'll have too much trouble using up the double lynches. It's better that it be unused than we use it as a scattershot in the hopes of nailing red. Just because we have them... doesn't mean we absolutely have to use them. @BC... Every death gives information, but it might not be entirely useful information, and I would rather get information from discussion then an innocent townie's death. As would I. However I will take any information given. There have already been a few tells in the last few pages on players, so keep it coming. As a note (although foolishness will post nobody cares) Ill be back in around 6 hours after I'm home from work. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 18 2010 07:20 Foolishness wrote: There are 38 players in the game. If we vote to use double lynch on day 2 (and thus it would be activated for day 3 lynch), then at the time of use, 2 days will have already passed. Ignoring medic saves cause medics always suck unless your name is Scamp, mafia will have killed 8 people. It'd be a safe assumption that by then at least one assassin/vigilante/mad hatter would have killed someone by then. So give or take by then 9 people will have died during the night, and 2 of our lynches brings the total up to 11. Seems reasonable that 10 to 11 people will be dead when we decide our day 3 lynch. That's going to be 28 people alive. Considering there are 3 double lynches, waiting to use seems like a terrible idea. Waiting another day is probably another 4-6 people dead (pending vigi/assassin hits and hatters dying and such). That's roughly 23 people alive. Even assuming by then 2 mafia are already dead, 6 mafia to 23ish people is cutting it close. And for good measure... NOBODY CARES! POST SOMETHING OF VALUE PLEASE! That's like the worst case scenario... you're not counting medic saves and veteran buffs... but still I concede by Day 3 we'll likely be whittled down. In my mind, it still doesn't justify killing more people unless we've got a solid lead on them. Like I said before, the double lynch is when we have more clues/solid leads than we can lynch... I don't want us to go to the polls and off two randoms because we don't know what to do with our lynches. Also... a response to Zona's attack on BC isn't useless... if anything you should be attacking the people who have posted shit all, like BM, but even then it's not doing anything constructive... other than pointing out what everyone already knows | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
1) The number of Assassins in this game is either: at least 2. It wouldn't make sense only if there was only 1 Assassin, and there being zero in this game would make even less sense. 2) Assumption: Mafia KP is Number/2 rounded up. Then, if we play strictly by Lynches/NK, we would have to lynch a Mafia by Day 4. We are then required to have 100% accuracy with our lynches, and the REQUIRED use of double lynches on subsequent days. Therefore it should be safe to use one of our double-lynches on Day 3, so long as we don't suffer any accidental townie casualties by Vigis or Assassins. The problem is that it shortens the town lifespan by about a day if we fail to lynch. Generally speaking, Day 3 is the turning point of most games so it seems reasonable to vote for a double then, but I'd rather wait and see how people are posting so far. Things that I have noticed: 1) BM completely not reading how Assassins work with his outlandish plan. They have limited NKs and rolechecks. 2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On April 18 2010 07:32 meeple wrote: That's like the worst case scenario... you're not counting medic saves and veteran buffs... but still I concede by Day 3 we'll likely be whittled down. In my mind, it still doesn't justify killing more people unless we've got a solid lead on them. Like I said before, the double lynch is when we have more clues/solid leads than we can lynch... I don't want us to go to the polls and off two randoms because we don't know what to do with our lynches. Also... a response to Zona's attack on BC isn't useless... if anything you should be attacking the people who have posted shit all, like BM, but even then it's not doing anything constructive... other than pointing out what everyone already knows It goes well without saying that planning for the worst case scenario is much better than "hoping" for some medic saves and Vets taking hits and mafia being stupid. I've been in games where the town could've saved itself if it had double lynched earlier. Instead town was left in a situation where they needed both their double lynches to hit mafia in order to win. You can probably guess what happened. Yes, I should listen to you and attack BC, who's posted shit all game...except he's actually contributing. Right now everyone disagrees with BC. But wait a minute! Something's not right here! BC told everyone to attack him (and caller and Ace) in his first post, and to not trust him at all. So all YOU have done is conformed to HIS plan, and act in a way that he totally anticipated and even wanted. Great job doing exactly what BC wanted! Not only have you provided us with essential information, you've also made high quality posts alerting all of us of how BC is full of crap! If there were elections I'd so be voting for you right now. I'd also be telling everyone else of how godly you are at mafia. Can you teach me your secrets? Perhaps it'd be best if you just start licking my testicles right now. | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On April 18 2010 07:42 d3_crescentia wrote: I've already brought this up, and BC has replied.2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well. On April 18 2010 06:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I interpret this to mean that BC thinks a good plan of action would be for DT's to garner a list of confirmed townies/blue roles, and then post them publicly so as to create a 'town circle'. I've personally always thought that 'town circle' implied private communication, but I guess I'm mistaken... The thing about this plan is that it would require the DT to roleclaim later on in the game. Sure, by putting him/herself in the public sphere, medics will know who to protect. But with mafia role blocker and assassins, I don't know whether the town and DT will necessarily be in a better off position because the DT can't have guaranteed protection. I agree with BC in that there are definitely pros to knowing who the DT has checked, so mad hatters/vigils don't hit the wrong people, and DT's don't waste hits checking people who have already been checked, etc etc. But I don't want to sacrifice a DT for the sake of knowing 2-3 confirmed townies. I guess the DT should see first what roles he is able to collect from role checks, and determine whether he thinks his information is worth the risk of RCing (eg. if he has found mafia, he might think it more important to publicly share his list with the town)... You do not need PM's to form town circles. Seriously. Only the Dt's can form the circle effectively. I make reference to if they have the ability use it. If not you play without it, its pretty simple. In this game, with 38 players there will be anywhere between 2 and 4 dts most likely, lets for this argument say there are 3. Those 3 are able to form a circle easily. Hell, even greens can form a town circle with a bit of work, but it takes alot more work on their part than dts. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 18 2010 07:50 Foolishness wrote: It goes well without saying that planning for the worst case scenario is much better than "hoping" for some medic saves and Vets taking hits and mafia being stupid. I've been in games where the town could've saved itself if it had double lynched earlier. Instead town was left in a situation where they needed both their double lynches to hit mafia in order to win. You can probably guess what happened. Yes, I should listen to you and attack BC, who's posted shit all game...except he's actually contributing. Right now everyone disagrees with BC. But wait a minute! Something's not right here! BC told everyone to attack him (and caller and Ace) in his first post, and to not trust him at all. So all YOU have done is conformed to HIS plan, and act in a way that he totally anticipated and even wanted. Great job doing exactly what BC wanted! Not only have you provided us with essential information, you've also made high quality posts alerting all of us of how BC is full of crap! If there were elections I'd so be voting for you right now. I'd also be telling everyone else of how godly you are at mafia. Can you teach me your secrets? Perhaps it'd be best if you just start licking my testicles right now. I never said to attack BC... in fact... I defended him when Zona was attacking him. I said BM as in Bill Murray, perhaps you just misread there. So yeah... you probably want to start licking those balls yourself. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On April 18 2010 07:58 madnessman wrote: I've already brought this up, and BC has replied. I interpret this to mean that BC thinks a good plan of action would be for DT's to garner a list of confirmed townies/blue roles, and then post them publicly so as to create a 'town circle'. I've personally always thought that 'town circle' implied private communication, but I guess I'm mistaken... The thing about this plan is that it would require the DT to roleclaim later on in the game. Sure, by putting him/herself in the public sphere, medics will know who to protect. But with mafia role blocker and assassins, I don't know whether the town and DT will necessarily be in a better off position because the DT can't have guaranteed protection. I agree with BC in that there are definitely pros to knowing who the DT has checked, so mad hatters/vigils don't hit the wrong people, and DT's don't waste hits checking people who have already been checked, etc etc. But I don't want to sacrifice a DT for the sake of knowing 2-3 confirmed townies. I guess the DT should see first what roles he is able to collect from role checks, and determine whether he thinks his information is worth the risk of RCing (eg. if he has found mafia, he might think it more important to publicly share his list with the town)... DTs should of course show discretion on when they RC in order to post their list, but they have to do it at some point, otherwise what good are they? One person's non-RC'd opinion probably won't be able to sway the town to lynch mafia/not lynch townies, especially when there are no clues. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On April 18 2010 07:50 Foolishness wrote: Perhaps it'd be best if you just start licking my testicles right now. On April 18 2010 08:05 meeple wrote: So yeah... you probably want to start licking those balls yourself. Wow.... Language please. This kind of posting has no useful purpose in mafia games at all. Please just stop. | ||
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