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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
Good points from this: 1) we learn who the assassins are 2) assassins have an equal chance of killing other assassins 3) we will be able to see people who are unable to kill each other This is the same approach that was attempted to be taken in Caller's last Mafiya. It was a very good strategy, and should have been followed. I feel that BC is probably town, but I'm getting serious scummy vibes from Zona. He's trying to derail the town, and is more than likely scum. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote: Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm. It was listed in the OP as a potential ability, hense as in my general guide? Perhaps you noticed how i listed playing strategies based on not having those ideas as well. Concentrate on more than one area would you. | ||
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Zona
40426 Posts
I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town. | ||
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Zona
40426 Posts
On April 18 2010 05:33 Bill Murray wrote: OK. Big FoS on Zona/BC for completely ignoring my valid strategy of making people pitted against each other. If we have player A vs player B we will be able to learn who the assassins are through having them strategically fight each other. If neither one is an assassin, we can have them roleclaim. I know that a lot of people on TL are against roleclaiming like this, but it is very beneficial to the town. Good points from this: 1) we learn who the assassins are 2) assassins have an equal chance of killing other assassins 3) we will be able to see people who are unable to kill each other This is the same approach that was attempted to be taken in Caller's last Mafiya. It was a very good strategy, and should have been followed. I feel that BC is probably town, but I'm getting serious scummy vibes from Zona. He's trying to derail the town, and is more than likely scum. Wait...you were serious about your "everyone is an assassin" post? And you want everyone to roleclaim so early? First of all, if someone is an assassin, they aren't going to claim assassin. That's just setting a big target on their backs so that the other assassins can kill them. And if we mass roleclaim we just allow the mafia to choose the most valuable power roles to kill at night. Also - how am I derailing the town? I'm pointing out the fishy parts of BC's posts and posting my own proposed plan with reasoning to back it up. Here's Bill Murray's plan in spoilers for those that want to reference it. It was so silly I thought it was a joke. + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2010 05:13 Bill Murray wrote: everyone is an assassin here's what we're going to do: The first half of the list is required to assassinate the 2nd half of the list. The list will be inverted the next day so everyone will get their turn to kill someone if they are an assassin. They won't want to be using their kills up every single night anyways, as they can use a Detective Check on the alternate night. I will be cutting the game list into a 1/2 order. 1s are killers, 2s are killees. It will switch the next night. If you are a killer or a killee, don't complain. In all likelihood you won't have to kill or be killed, as we are not sure how many assassins there are. If the mafia kill a killee in the night, we skip a lynch to balance it (hypothetically), but if they kill a killer then we will lynch the killee of the person that they killed the killer of. I hope this is making sense to you. If anyone has any questions about the Bill Murray plan of town success let me know. This plan will help the town as it will be putting mafia players in vulnerable "killee" positions in which they would potentially lynch the "killer". We use the assassins to win as a town. They COUNT as town people, so assassins will want the town to win. It will also be giving them chances to win the game for theirselves through killing other assassins and finding assassins that they can kill at any time during the night that we aren't asking them to kill for us. If they find an assassin, they can breadcrumb a message to us previously or something to let us know BEFORE they do the action that they will be killing an alternate person (this will guarantee that they stay town as we let them go towards their goal while we go towards our goal together). I don't want assassins to claim at first, but it will become obvious after the first 2 cycles on who they are anyways, so we can be a lot more organized after the first couple day/night cycles. | ||
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CynanMachae
Canada1459 Posts
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote: Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm. It was a possibility that he said to exploit if possible... I wouldn't say that his plan hinged on it. In fact, it was a fairly minor part of the plan. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 18 2010 05:42 Zona wrote: Wait...you were serious about your "everyone is an assassin" post? And you want everyone to roleclaim so early? First of all, if someone is an assassin, they aren't going to claim assassin. That's just setting a big target on their backs so that the other assassins can kill them. And if we mass roleclaim we just allow the mafia to choose the most valuable power roles to kill at night. Also - how am I derailing the town? I'm pointing out the fishy parts of BC's posts and posting my own proposed plan with reasoning to back it up. Here's Bill Murray's plan in spoilers for those that want to reference it. It was so silly I thought it was a joke. + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2010 05:13 Bill Murray wrote: everyone is an assassin here's what we're going to do: The first half of the list is required to assassinate the 2nd half of the list. The list will be inverted the next day so everyone will get their turn to kill someone if they are an assassin. They won't want to be using their kills up every single night anyways, as they can use a Detective Check on the alternate night. I will be cutting the game list into a 1/2 order. 1s are killers, 2s are killees. It will switch the next night. If you are a killer or a killee, don't complain. In all likelihood you won't have to kill or be killed, as we are not sure how many assassins there are. If the mafia kill a killee in the night, we skip a lynch to balance it (hypothetically), but if they kill a killer then we will lynch the killee of the person that they killed the killer of. I hope this is making sense to you. If anyone has any questions about the Bill Murray plan of town success let me know. This plan will help the town as it will be putting mafia players in vulnerable "killee" positions in which they would potentially lynch the "killer". We use the assassins to win as a town. They COUNT as town people, so assassins will want the town to win. It will also be giving them chances to win the game for theirselves through killing other assassins and finding assassins that they can kill at any time during the night that we aren't asking them to kill for us. If they find an assassin, they can breadcrumb a message to us previously or something to let us know BEFORE they do the action that they will be killing an alternate person (this will guarantee that they stay town as we let them go towards their goal while we go towards our goal together). I don't want assassins to claim at first, but it will become obvious after the first 2 cycles on who they are anyways, so we can be a lot more organized after the first couple day/night cycles. BM can almost never be taken seriously... his plans should be ignored | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On April 18 2010 05:36 Zona wrote: Hah, as I post you I see that you are still making arguments based on the idea DTs can PM. Confirmed townies are somewhat useful in a game without out of thread communications, but are a LOT LESS USEFUL THAN FINDING MAFIA. When a town member has to be publicly confirmed, the value is a lot less. I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town. If you are unable to figure out how a DT can create a town circle by clearing townies in this format I have no inclination to tell you. IT IS INSANELY EASY. Dropping mafia down to a list of x people is alot easier than sacrificing a DT for one red. As hey, I doubt we have 1 dt for every red. Remember, with millers around a checked red is never a confirmed red. Whereas a checked green or blue is more likely town as only 1 gf is alive to infiltrate. Assassins show up as what they are. On April 18 2010 04:45 Zona wrote: Wow, 8 mafia vs 30 town members, with some of the 30 not truly pro-town? Looks like a rather tough game, unless town has more power roles than usual. The town can only afford 5-7 single mislynches if we aren't lucky early in the game and really reduce KP, and we have to lynch/bluekill 8 times successfully. If everything goes wrong for the town without double lynches we lose at the end of Day 5 - so we probably want to highly consider using our first double lynch on Day 3 and likely on the following days as well, unless we do kill off a bunch of mafia and gain ourselves more time, unless we do particularly well in the first day/night cycle. I suggest Day 3 for our first unless a lot of information surfaces earlier in the game, because we don't want to spend our double lynches unless we have good targets to use it on, or until we're desperate, and earlier in the game we're less likely to have good targets. The day 1 lynch is really a crapshoot as we have very little information, but definitely avoid lynching someone who's participating actively, unless that person does an outrageous scumtell. It's easier to find mafia among active players than among inactives, so don't remove an active player with the day 1 lynch when it could have been an active town member! But for sure don't no lynch. Past vote counts are the most solid information the town gets, and along with the alignment revelation of the lynched player, can often reveal a lot. (Unless Abenson improves, his posting does NOT count as activity. Since his posts are truly garbage, and he seems proud of the fact with his "The happy spammer/1-line poster of TL Mafia :D" sig, he pretty much counts as an inactive. As his posts give us no clue as to whether or not he's mafia.) Ill bring this post up as well, why not start here. Town cannot afford 5-7 mislynches. Period. Your entire count depends on mafia KP being stopped by meds + vet hits. However any of those mis lynches could off a vet or med. With 5 mis lynches and no unstopped hits by red (assume no blue kp used or assassin KP) town loses. 25 of 38 players would be dead, leaving 13 alive, 8 of them red. Game ends. With Double lynches + vigi's + hatters + assassins. Game will end very quickly unless everyone hits reds accurately. If everything goes wrong for town we lose at end of day 3, as alot of KP will have been used by then. Day 1 lynch is only a crapshoot based on the activity level of the town. If everyone is as active as you and I are right now, a day 1 lynch gives alot of information. Finding reds is super important this game and the most instrumental way to do this is via town analyzing posts. This won't be won by blue roles, it will be won by greens. DT's should follow the plan I have laid out as it gives you a late game nail to hit into the mafia coffin. However, in a format with High KP and high mafia number. Greens have to step up and win this game. However, I really appreciate you coming out and really focusing on one single part of my list, as well as saying my entire idea's hinge on it. It gives alot of information for the town quickly. | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
First of all, if someone is an assassin, they aren't going to claim assassin. That's just setting a big target on their backs so that the other assassins can kill them. I hadn't thought about the repercussions of being assassin in this system, but as you are thinking about being an assassin, perhaps you are one? | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On April 18 2010 05:33 Bill Murray wrote: OK. Big FoS on Zona/BC for completely ignoring my valid strategy of making people pitted against each other. If we have player A vs player B we will be able to learn who the assassins are through having them strategically fight each other. If neither one is an assassin, we can have them roleclaim. I know that a lot of people on TL are against roleclaiming like this, but it is very beneficial to the town. Good points from this: 1) we learn who the assassins are 2) assassins have an equal chance of killing other assassins 3) we will be able to see people who are unable to kill each other This is the same approach that was attempted to be taken in Caller's last Mafiya. It was a very good strategy, and should have been followed. I feel that BC is probably town, but I'm getting serious scummy vibes from Zona. He's trying to derail the town, and is more than likely scum. No assassin worth his salt will roleclaim, since it runs contrary to his victory conditions. Unless the assassins are not playing to win, this plan won't work. | ||
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CynanMachae
Canada1459 Posts
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ill bring this post up as well, why not start here. Town cannot afford 5-7 mislynches. Period. Your entire count depends on mafia KP being stopped by meds + vet hits. However any of those mis lynches could off a vet or med. With 5 mis lynches and no unstopped hits by red (assume no blue kp used or assassin KP) town loses. 25 of 38 players would be dead, leaving 13 alive, 8 of them red. Game ends. With Double lynches + vigi's + hatters + assassins. Game will end very quickly unless everyone hits reds accurately. If everything goes wrong for town we lose at end of day 3, as alot of KP will have been used by then. Yeah, we should plan for worst case scenarios - but we all know that the game will 95% not be over on day 3. This plays into the timing of double lynch. I think we should wait no longer than Day 4 to do it (meaning we vote for double lynch on Day 3). However this is all dependent on the events of the previous days. If we're in a hole, might want to start it on Day 3; or if we catch some reds via DT or they scumtell. Often i find these time limits for town are a useful thought experiment but rarely if ever do the games actually play out that way | ||
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madnessman
United States1581 Posts
On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I would have to agree with Zona and say that it seemed pretty clear cut to me that nobody besides mafia are granted the ability to PM. It'd be really complicated and confusing. If you're a special blue role (say DT), and you PM a green role, he/she would be unable to respond. If you PM a red role, is the mafia member allowed to PM you back? Mafia are given the ability to PM, but that's assuming it's for use within their own mafia circle to choose their hits. And then mafia would know you have a special blue role.. If you PM a fellow blue role, you may only start your town circle if he/she has also been granted special PMing abilities. So basically, you'd be PMing people based on a hunch that they are blue, and I suppose there's a decent chance that you end up PMing a fellow blue if you're good at behavioral analysis. But then he/she might not also have the special PM ability. And just by PMing somebody, you're giving away information that you have a special role. So yeah... flamewheel creating special PM abilities just seemed very unlikely and too complicated to moderate. If you are unable to figure out how a DT can create a town circle by clearing townies in this format I have no inclination to tell you. IT IS INSANELY EASY. Dropping mafia down to a list of x people is alot easier than sacrificing a DT for one red. As hey, I doubt we have 1 dt for every red. Remember, with millers around a checked red is never a confirmed red. Whereas a checked green or blue is more likely town as only 1 gf is alive to infiltrate. Assassins show up as what they are. Either way, I think Zona has cleared it up that forming town circles are impossible since town-aligned players don't have PM abilities. So I'm not exactly sure what you're arguing in the quote above o_O. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 18 2010 06:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Yeah, we should plan for worst case scenarios - but we all know that the game will 95% not be over on day 3. This plays into the timing of double lynch. I think we should wait no longer than Day 4 to do it (meaning we vote for double lynch on Day 3). However this is all dependent on the events of the previous days. If we're in a hole, might want to start it on Day 3; or if we catch some reds via DT or they scumtell. Often i find these time limits for town are a useful thought experiment but rarely if ever do the games actually play out that way Day four seems like a long time to wait to use our first double lynch. We get three of them this game, and if people are talking about town possibly being in trouble by day 4 or 5 we may not get to use them all. That would be unfortunate. I'm not necessarily saying we should use them super early, but we should at least think about it. The danger would be trimming down our numbers even more if we're wrong, but that danger always exists with lynching. If we did vote for the double lynch, and then were unsure of who to take out, the option also exists to avoid a majority vote and not lynch a second person(although i'm not sure that makes sense to waste it like that). Also, is that even allowed? Can we vote for the double lynch and then end up only lynching one person? | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm. Did people miss this post? It's confirmed that only the mafia can PM. Either way, I think Zona has cleared it up that forming town circles are impossible since town-aligned players don't have PM abilities. So I'm not exactly sure what you're arguing in the quote above o_O. I think what BC is saying is that at some juncture the DT would reveal himself and his list of greens/blues/reds and create a group of confirmed townies. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On April 18 2010 06:12 madnessman wrote: I would have to agree with Zona and say that it seemed pretty clear cut to me that nobody besides mafia are granted the ability to PM. It'd be really complicated and confusing. If you're a special blue role (say DT), and you PM a green role, he/she would be unable to respond. If you PM a red role, is the mafia member allowed to PM you back? Mafia are given the ability to PM, but that's assuming it's for use within their own mafia circle to choose their hits. And then mafia would know you have a special blue role.. If you PM a fellow blue role, you may only start your town circle if he/she has also been granted special PMing abilities. So basically, you'd be PMing people based on a hunch that they are blue, and I suppose there's a decent chance that you end up PMing a fellow blue if you're good at behavioral analysis. But then he/she might not also have the special PM ability. And just by PMing somebody, you're giving away information that you have a special role. So yeah... flamewheel creating special PM abilities just seemed very unlikely and too complicated to moderate. Either way, I think Zona has cleared it up that forming town circles are impossible since town-aligned players don't have PM abilities. So I'm not exactly sure what you're arguing in the quote above o_O. You do not need PM's to form town circles. Seriously. Only the Dt's can form the circle effectively. I make reference to if they have the ability use it. If not you play without it, its pretty simple. In this game, with 38 players there will be anywhere between 2 and 4 dts most likely, lets for this argument say there are 3. Those 3 are able to form a circle easily. Hell, even greens can form a town circle with a bit of work, but it takes alot more work on their part than dts. | ||
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KF91
Canada221 Posts
On April 18 2010 06:17 Radfield wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 18 2010 06:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: Yeah, we should plan for worst case scenarios - but we all know that the game will 95% not be over on day 3. This plays into the timing of double lynch. I think we should wait no longer than Day 4 to do it (meaning we vote for double lynch on Day 3). However this is all dependent on the events of the previous days. If we're in a hole, might want to start it on Day 3; or if we catch some reds via DT or they scumtell. Often i find these time limits for town are a useful thought experiment but rarely if ever do the games actually play out that way Day four seems like a long time to wait to use our first double lynch. We get three of them this game, and if people are talking about town possibly being in trouble by day 4 or 5 we may not get to use them all. That would be unfortunate. I'm not necessarily saying we should use them super early, but we should at least think about it. The danger would be trimming down our numbers even more if we're wrong, but that danger always exists with lynching. If we did vote for the double lynch, and then were unsure of who to take out, the option also exists to avoid a majority vote and not lynch a second person(although i'm not sure that makes sense to waste it like that). Also, is that even allowed? Can we vote for the double lynch and then end up only lynching one person? I think Radfield is right; we should use our double lynch earlier. Although people might argue that we have less of a chance to hit one mafia with the double lynch, it also lowers the chances of hitting a blue role if we do it on day one or two, instead of waiting until day 3 or 4. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On April 18 2010 06:29 KF91 wrote: I think Radfield is right; we should use our double lynch earlier. Although people might argue that we have less of a chance to hit one mafia with the double lynch, it also lowers the chances of hitting a blue role if we do it on day one or two, instead of waiting until day 3 or 4. Sadly the first day its usable is day 3. :p reading is fun | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
I have never liked double lynching early. Most of the time there just isn't a good amount of information at this time and at least 1 townie gets lynched. One thing fw needs to clean up is whether we can have a double lynch but then only lynch 1 player. I myself doubt it.However, if we can back out, then double lynching is a little less risky since we won't be forced to do a lynch on bad info. | ||
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