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On March 26 2010 10:12 L wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2010 10:06 tree.hugger wrote:On March 26 2010 10:02 L wrote:On March 26 2010 09:52 tree.hugger wrote:On March 26 2010 09:48 L wrote:On March 26 2010 09:43 tree.hugger wrote:On March 26 2010 09:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Who anti-nuked for Caller? That person should step forward, and RoL should definitely eat Caller's brains....Mafia saving caller? Not in my mafia world?!?! And immediately get killed by the mafia? Yeah right. Japan is a country that should certainly have more tricks up their sleeve, having this person out themselves will not happen if they're mafia, and should not happen if they're town aligned and want to stay living. Why would he get killed by mafia? Anti-nukes are on the same numbered reserve that nukes are on; Given that RoL admitted to having a single nuke, its very probably that anti-nuking countries have a single anti-nuke as well. There's a pretty obvious reason why we'd want the anti-nuker to come forward, but lets see how people react to this first. What is the obvious reason? So we can lynch them? So we can not lynch them? What is gained by knowing who did this? Your assumption about Japan only having one anti-nuke cannot be proven, and in fact, the fact that the anti-nuke was used so early perhaps suggests that this player has other options at their disposal. Because if mafia have anti-nukes, we'd kinda want to know the identity of the anti-nuker if RoL kills caller and he flips red. Then the guy needs to justify his actions. Derp. So you're arguing that if the anti-nuker is mafia, then it would be in the best interests of the town for them to claim firing the anti-nuke? Well yeah, okay, sure, good luck with that. No, I'm not. If the anti-nuker is town, he will probably step forward unless he has another ability, which is unlikely. If he's mafia and doesn't step forward, then RoL should nail Caller 100% and we can be happy that mafia just wasted an anti-nuke.
Are you still operating under the assumption the anti-nuker only has spent his or her only anti-nuke and is now vanilla? Because I don't think it's a good assumption, and if this player is town and still has at least one anti-nuke, I would not want this player to step forward and become a mafia target at night.
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On March 26 2010 10:16 L wrote:
Err, no. I didn't talk about Japan at all until you brought up the nation. Nor did I say that he had to be anti-mafia. I said the person should come forward because he COULD be mafia. Why would you think Japan has a certain set of abilities unless you know someone who has japan?
Um...did you read this?
On March 26 2010 09:06 Ace wrote:
General! The nuke from Rebirthoflegend heading towards Caller has been shot down! We do not know who did it, but we know that the shot came from Japan!
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On March 26 2010 10:18 L wrote:
Even if the guy has a single extra anti-nuke, it would be far better for him to reveal himself so that RoL has information regarding his retaliatory strike. Granted its probably you or Caller, you're probably against someone coming out because he might end up offing you.
I disagree here, and very much so.
First of all, your assumption that this anti-nuker has no further anti-nukes is based on thin air. But beyond that, my biggest objection to your reasoning is that each extra anti-nuke in late game can potentially stop a full mafia kill.
As an illustration, here's an extremely contrived example. Let's say we've come to a situation where there's 5 town members and 3 mafia left, and the mafia have 2 nukes. The mafia obviously know who the town members are, and they could launch their 2 nukes, kill two town members, and grab their win, as they now have equal numbers as the town members and can prevent lynches. Each anti-nuke the town has can prevent a whole kill from the mafia in this kind of late game situation.
On the other hand, you are suggesting that we ask this person, who might have 1 or more anti-nukes remaining, to step forward and identify themselves, and risk being nightkilled by the mafia, in return for a small amount of information which doesn't even guarantee the alignment of any other player.
I want to emphasize something. In many mafia games the mafia only wins when their number is equal or more than the town. But in this game, if the mafia have more nukes remaining than the town has anti-nukes, for each nuke they have extra, they can have one fewer member than the town and still win. Of course the mafia isn't sure about how many anti-nukes the town has remaining, but that doesn't mean we should risk our anti-nukers needlessly.
To reiterate: The power of a mafia nuke is not the same as the power of a town nuke, when anti-nukes are gone. The mafia nuke is guaranteed to reduce the number of town members. The town nuke may or may not reduce the number of mafia members.
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To summarize: Town anti-nukes are far more important than some of you are given them credit for.
If there were no town anti-nukes, each mafia nuke is essential a guaranteed additional kill, made in public. The disincentive for the mafia to use these nukes early games is because they might out themselves and be killed in return. In the late game, if there are only a few more town members than mafia and inadequate amount of anti-nukes remaining, they can simply use their nukes as kills and win, as by that point in time outing themselves is not a problem, as the town no longer has enough "extra" members to absorb the kills and still be able to take revenge to win.
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Is there a point to continue to drag out the day with a fake nuke?
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On March 26 2010 12:24 tree.hugger wrote:
Here's what I have to say:
- If L is not mafia, he might be saved.
- If L is mafia, he will definitely be saved.
- There is no way this nuke will be as successful as I wish it could be. But at least it might make L a little more friendly and constructive.
Why did you launch the nuke if you figured it likely wouldn't be successful? You've just put a lot of heat on yourself for the slim chance of getting rid of L. I highly doubt L will change how he plays because of it. He's consistently like this over multiple games, he'll either die or continue to be himself.
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On March 26 2010 16:39 Bill Murray wrote:
WHAT I PROPOSE:
Lynch Abenson solely to give the town someone to build a circle around with ~OpZ~. I find it highly unlikely that masons would be on different sides given the format that we are using.
I would like to disagree with this.
Since this game has no PMs allowed, confirming OpZ does not allow us to "build a circle" because no one else can talk with OpZ privately, detectives cannot use OpZ as a mouthpiece, and none of the regular benefits of a "town circle" can be realized.
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Now you're just getting into hypothetical situation territory. Let me play that game, for fun:
"Well for all we know Ace could have..." created a role which absorbs radiation once 13 nukes have been launched to become a radioactive superhero with the powers of medic, detective, vigilante, roleblocker, veteran, and more combined. Let's launch a bunch of nukes to power up this player, in case the role exists! Hmmm...
Well, unless you are somehow in contact with this hypothetical detective that can PM others?
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Heh. I'm surprised it took so long for the nukes to start flying. I consider it a minor victory that we collectively as a group held back for so long.
TL players aren't exactly a bastion of self-discipline.
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On March 27 2010 01:24 L wrote:Show nested quote +Meanwhile, my intent with the L nuke was to eliminate someone who I see as a anchor to the town's effort That would probably be why someone would want to stop it, right?
I think he means anchor in terms of something holding back a ship. Rather than the other interpretation of anchor, being a solid foundation to build something on.
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There is a minor benefit to letting L die - we can get some insight into the earlier votes on him when he was banned.
But this is a minor benefit when weighed against the rest of the factors - saving antinukes, nullifying out-of-nowhere-nukes, etc, which have been discussed over and over again (and without agreement).
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Holy crap. I'm away for a day of hiking and I come back this shitstorm?
NO MORE FUCKING NUKES!
Town members have been launching nukes without consensus based on their feelings that "player x must be mafia" on day 1 - this is HORRIBLE play. Why? Because any individual's players feelings on who might be mafia, no matter how SURE they are, are probably wrong on day 1. On day 1 the town has the LEAST amount of information - any town-directed kill is much more likely to hit town than mafia (as town comprise the majority of the game's players). Anyone's personal feelings, no matter how strong, will often be wrong.
The town should be slow to kill early in the game, and only later in the game consider (but not necessarily commit to) killing faster, as more information surfaces. The town's reads on other players, and the information it has gets better later in the game, so LATER town-directed kills are much more likely to be successful.
In most cases, waiting on some consensus is best before using a town-directed kill. Town consensus does have the downside of potential mafia influence, but like vote counts, this can be examined later on. And the UPSIDE is that the opinions of multiple town members can help overcome your blind spots and biases. And so far all the known town-directed nukes HAVE been wrong.
Because of this - even if you're about to be lynched, if you're town, you SHOULD NOT nuke, at least not until the late game.
(part 2)
Regarding anti-nukes - more evidence has surfaced supporting the idea that they are scarce:
Notice out of the 4 dead townies that have flipped, only one had anti-nukes, and that person only had ONE anti-nuke in total.
Don't squander our anti-nukes.
(part 3)
I honestly do think we should all wait for night before deciding what to do. Some people have asked "why do you want night so early...to take your night actions earlier?" - but that's an inaccurate and loaded question: Earlier or later nights doesn't make a difference in how effective your night actions are - the game mechanics are exactly the same. The town still gets one lynch in the day for every night that passes. It's not like the town LOSES powers or the mafia GAINS powers if we don't extend the day.
Extending the day in a mafia game could benefit town members IF THE EXTRA DISCUSSION IS USEFUL. But in this game the extended day has just devolved into more nukes and no particular solid leads on mafia. So there's no point in extending the day further.
(part 4)
I really think Versatile really stepped out of line, and tree.hugger/Xelin to a lesser extent, but with recent developments I really don't think we should immediately lynch or revenge-nuke them, simply because of the reality I described in the earlier parts.
What happened to my earlier stance on revenge-nuking? Revenge-nuking at this point in the game just opens more opportunities for the original nuker to launch more nukes, which we want to avoid. So at least for now, let's not revenge-nuke.
How about lynching our nukers? Actually, I'm rather on board for a Versatile lynch since she's launched more nukes than our other nukers and shows no sign of stopping. But there are so many hours before we can make our the next lynch, we might as well see what develops before we make our decision. Maybe someone else will show even more significant signs of being a mafia member in the hours to come. Our next lynch IS a long time away (real-life time), so I'm not going to commit my vote just yet.
(part 5)
I don't suggest following L's plan even if he was town. As I stated earlier, the town has the least amount of information early game and the highest chance of picking the wrong suspects, so hold your fire. (Plus L was totally wrong in most of his calls that he made without relying on DT-check last game.) However I do support keeping an eye on the suspects he has indicated, as now that we know he's town, his list of suspects are free of mafia bias. (It doesn't necessarily make his suspect list ACCURATE, though.)
Summary:
As a town, we have the least amount of information early in the game, so we should be slow to kill. As we gain more information and our suspicions become more solid, then it could possibly (but not necessarily) be useful for the town to kill more quickly.
As a town, our lynch for the day is already completed.
The only thing we can do now is either:
- Wait
- Launch more nukes
I am against launching more nukes - so let's wait and see what happens.
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Additional notes:
Notice BM flipped "Day Doc" while johnnyspazz flipped "vanilla townie" - so johnnyspazz probably didn't have anti-nukes. I don't know what to make of the "I get them day 2 - oh wait I read things wrong" part of his claims.
L was a medic and still made himself such a focal point of the discussion? I guess he can't stop himself from being loud in any game of mafia.
Caller's still silent. Very silent, for an experienced TL mafia player and host. Plus, the nuke at him was shot down, while it seems whoever holds anti-nukes have been much more reluctant to use them to shoot down other nukes. If Japan (who anti-nuked for Caller) still has anti-nukes, for some reason this person isn't using them to save other nuke-targets. If Japan had only one nuke, I doubt this person would have spent it that readily. I agree with others who are stating that it's a significant possibility that a mafia-aligned Japan saved Caller, because either Japan spent his or her one anti-nuke very readily on Caller and didn't even consider saving it for another situation, or Japan does have more anti-nukes but only chose to save Caller and not other targets.
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I am not saying that Xelin and tree.hugger deserve to live. But I am saying that nuking them is not the best idea right now.
You don't simply say X or Y is the right choice in a vacuum, you compare all the possible steps the town can take to each other and choose what is best.
Leaving them alive sucks - but what is the alternative? Nuke them so they can launch even more nukes? You could put them on a queue to lynch one after another - but we really shouldn't fix in place steps that we will take so far in the future. There's so much that could happen to change our view of the situation between now and then.
If you think I'm scummy just for thinking through the situation thoroughly, I'm truly disappointed.
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On March 28 2010 21:21 Zona wrote:
we really shouldn't fix in place steps that we will take so far in the future. There's so much that could happen to change our view of the situation between now and then.
Just so my post doesn't get misconstrued, let me elaborate on this part.
Between now and then, we'll get more cardflips, more discussion, and perhaps some players will gain information during the night as well. We'll have much more to work with before we approach the next lynch, let alone one or two lynches beyond that.
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Also - as for believing that they have no more nukes left or will hold back from nuking any further...if you're going to believe that, why not believe they're town?
(I'm NOT saying they're town. I'm saying that their claims that they will not nuke again are not trustworthy.)
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On March 28 2010 22:41 ~OpZ~ wrote:
No...more the fact you were one of the people willing to let someone I confirmed die by lynch...
Wat. Who did you confirm that I voted to lynch?
Plus interesting you rage at tree.hugger and Xelin but not Versatile - why this discrepancy?
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Anyways, our low postcount players:
iNfuNdiBuLuM: 31
JeeJee: 30
Iaaan: 29
meeple: 28
Fishball: 26
Amber[LighT]: 26
Nikon: 18
d3_crescentia: 14
nemY: 13
Abenson: 12
Caller: 12
Phrujbaz: 2
A summary of posts from three of them...I'll go through more later:
d3_crescentia - agrees with part 1/4 of plan, but not 2/3:
has a problem with nuking those who nuke first, as they can nuke back, posts a guess at the math behind the game setup
votes L - "don't feel too strongly for anyone" "rather vote L than Abenson because L could dick over the town way harder"
votes RoL post-nuke
surprised that Zona isn't posting more, Xelin claimed to be NKorea
supports the idea that anti-nukes are more valuable in the endgame
nemY - asks for a summary of what's gone on so far
calls out infundi for "feigned ignorance", against votes for L
voted for BM "for the same reason as caller" - caller's reason was that he doesn't trust BM with nukes
calls out those voting for L
voted RoL because "he broke the rules"
why not nuke tree.hugger because of "personal vendetta against L"
Nikon - agrees with lynch the nuker plan, disagrees with L's plan to retaliate with nukes
votes OpZ after calling out Zona and OpZ for voting to lynch Phrujbaz when he was most likely to get modkilled for inactivity
votes Abenson saying Abenson voted L "without having much of a reason" and OpZ unlikely to be lynched
states that 3 masons makes sense in a 22-player game
votes RoL after OpZ claims mason for Abenson
points out the rules indicate something worse might happen beyond anti-nukes
a one-sentence argument against L's idea that the anti-nuker (for caller) should claim
acuses BM of being the third mason
None of the three I've looked at so far have really brought any significant ideas to the table. Something for future reference.
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Caller -
proposes fake nuking L
retracts his statement as people point out he interpreted the rules incorrectly
replies to a long chain of quotes saying something isn't WIFOM, but is a scumtell (as far as I can tell he's referring to Fishball's post, but it's ambiguious to me)
votes OpZ "because his quotes are pissing me off"
votes BM because he doesn't trust BM with nukes
asks that someone anti-nuke the nuke headed towards him
Caller has brought zero original ideas to the table, and of his dozen posts, half of them are fluff.
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Abenson - no redeeming posts whatsoever, just like all his games
but just to be complete, his stuff includes:
votes L because he's temp-banned
suspects xelin and haster27 for voting him
unvotes L "since his ban is almost up"
votes RoL post-nuke
well, he does finally "confirm" that he's masons with opz
and suggests lynching johnnyspazz
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EPT
