EPTCaller
haster27
opz
Abenson
citizen
Citizen
caller
Iaaan
JeeJee
oh and there's a nuke somewhere up there but I'm too lazy to go back and find out when it lands.
Day 4 currently ends at 5:01 KST April 10th
World at War Mafia - Page 107
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Caller haster27 opz Abenson citizen Citizen caller Iaaan JeeJee oh and there's a nuke somewhere up there but I'm too lazy to go back and find out when it lands. Day 4 currently ends at 5:01 KST April 10th | ||
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haster27
Taiwan809 Posts
Argument about vote counts This argument also assumes that entire Mafia players chose to vote for one person three consecutive days. Seriously? I thought the most basic assumption about Mafia voting pattern was that they would try to avoid suspicion by spreading their votes as much as possible. Yes, they were all bandwagon votes, but RoL and Xelin bandwagon had so much steam going into it there was little reason for Mafia to all-in every time. Overall his repeated statement that four of us voted for same person over and over again is WIFOM. Another specific flaw I found; JeeJee states that four of us created wagon against Nikon when only alternative lynch target was Caller- only for citizen and me to start Caller bandwagon very next day. What? If Caller also is Townie, why wouldn't we have followed the bandwagon suggested by confirmed Townie? Remember you said we are not following the bandwagon that has already formed, but started it. There must be motive for Mafia to start the bandwagon that goes against the argument of confirmed Townie, and therefore draw suspicion later on. If both Nikon and Caller is Townie, it is absolutely illogical for Mafia to continue their bandwagon against Nikon and Caller even when confirmed Townie is strongly arguing for alternative lynch target. Argument against abilities If Mafia - Caller in this case because he is certainly Mafia if citizen is innocent - intended to start bandwagon against citizen, they might easily could have chosen to keep their nuke-stealer in check to further incriminate him. Absense of nuke steal proves nothing. I cannot even understand what you are arguing here. Citizen had his nuke stolen (because immobile three nukes are perfect nuke-stealer target), but cannot say it publicly because it proves his ability cannot NK the people visiting him? Um... didn't we get that verified when Caller claimed to have checked him? I feel like I did not completely understand your point here, so clarification is welcome. Argument against setup "all we know is that there isn't five mafia": your entire argument hinges on this argument being true. I can only see you thinking Caller/~OpZ~/Abenson/d3/yourself are Townies, because otherwise I cannot see why you would make such statement with confidence. Let me state this means nothing. If Caller is Mafia he and d3_crescentia are no longer confirmed Townie. If so it is still possible there are five Mafia present in the game. Also, you berate laaan for never "[considering] the point that there might not be four mafia, but less", but did anyone ever express an opinion that there might be less than three Mafia previous to your post? I have to go momentarily for now, so I'll post my thought about JeeJee's remaining arguments later. | ||
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Elemenope
Burkina Faso1704 Posts
On April 09 2010 06:28 haster27 wrote: Argument against setup "all we know is that there isn't five mafia": your entire argument hinges on this argument being true. I can only see you thinking Caller/~OpZ~/Abenson/d3/yourself are Townies, because otherwise I cannot see why you would make such statement with confidence. Let me state this means nothing. If Caller is Mafia he and d3_crescentia are no longer confirmed Townie. If so it is still possible there are five Mafia present in the game. Also, you berate laaan for never "[considering] the point that there might not be four mafia, but less", but did anyone ever express an opinion that there might be less than three Mafia previous to your post? It's mathematically impossible for there to be 5 mafia. Are you even paying attention at all? And secondly: I did express concerns that there may be no mafia at all in fact, and it may be two anti-town SKs actually, prior to Nemy launching his nuke towards Nikon I believe actually. I'd still like to hear Opz/Abenson's reasoning behind suddenly switching votes, especially at the last second, and secondly: the nuke on Iaaan. | ||
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
On April 09 2010 06:28 haster27 wrote: With ~OpZ~ and Abenson changing his opinion, JeeJee seems to be most detailed post arguing for citizen lynch. Let me rip his arguments to shreds. Argument about vote counts This argument also assumes that entire Mafia players chose to vote for one person three consecutive days. Seriously? I thought the most basic assumption about Mafia voting pattern was that they would try to avoid suspicion by spreading their votes as much as possible. Yes, they were all bandwagon votes, but RoL and Xelin bandwagon had so much steam going into it there was little reason for Mafia to all-in every time. Overall his repeated statement that four of us voted for same person over and over again is WIFOM. Another specific flaw I found; JeeJee states that four of us created wagon against Nikon when only alternative lynch target was Caller- only for citizen and me to start Caller bandwagon very next day. What? If Caller also is Townie, why wouldn't we have followed the bandwagon suggested by confirmed Townie? Remember you said we are not following the bandwagon that has already formed, but started it. There must be motive for Mafia to start the bandwagon that goes against the argument of confirmed Townie, and therefore draw suspicion later on. If both Nikon and Caller is Townie, it is absolutely illogical for Mafia to continue their bandwagon against Nikon and Caller even when confirmed Townie is strongly arguing for alternative lynch target. Argument against abilities If Mafia - Caller in this case because he is certainly Mafia if citizen is innocent - intended to start bandwagon against citizen, they might easily could have chosen to keep their nuke-stealer in check to further incriminate him. Absense of nuke steal proves nothing. I cannot even understand what you are arguing here. Citizen had his nuke stolen (because immobile three nukes are perfect nuke-stealer target), but cannot say it publicly because it proves his ability cannot NK the people visiting him? Um... didn't we get that verified when Caller claimed to have checked him? I feel like I did not completely understand your point here, so clarification is welcome. Argument against setup "all we know is that there isn't five mafia": your entire argument hinges on this argument being true. I can only see you thinking Caller/~OpZ~/Abenson/d3/yourself are Townies, because otherwise I cannot see why you would make such statement with confidence. Let me state this means nothing. If Caller is Mafia he and d3_crescentia are no longer confirmed Townie. If so it is still possible there are five Mafia present in the game. Also, you berate laaan for never "[considering] the point that there might not be four mafia, but less", but did anyone ever express an opinion that there might be less than three Mafia previous to your post? I have to go momentarily for now, so I'll post my thought about JeeJee's remaining arguments later. Where were you to further argue with me earlier? I would of preferred that. Honestly I have no idea which of you is mafia. Caller not being mafia pretty much hands the game over to town, right then and there. Almost everyone becomes confirmed. Sounds extremely nice. Now let's see if he's right. Citizen voters and would-be voters: Iaaan LMNOP Caller JeeJee I would like this to be noted. I would also like it to be noted all who didn't cast their votes. D3. Abenson, Haster, Myself, Citizen. Let's see where this goes after Caller dies. D3 cast your vote. | ||
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Elemenope
Burkina Faso1704 Posts
On April 09 2010 06:41 ~OpZ~ wrote: Where were you to further argue with me earlier? I would of preferred that. Honestly I have no idea which of you is mafia. Caller not being mafia pretty much hands the game over to town, right then and there. Almost everyone becomes confirmed. Sounds extremely nice. Now let's see if he's right. Citizen voters and would-be voters: Iaaan LMNOP Caller JeeJee I would like this to be noted. I would also like it to be noted all who didn't cast their votes. D3. Abenson, Haster, Myself, Citizen. Let's see where this goes after Caller dies. D3 cast your vote. Before going any further: I'd like to hear your mafia suspect list. | ||
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
On April 09 2010 06:46 Elemenope wrote: Before going any further: I'd like to hear your mafia suspect list. Please cast your vote for the suspect that seems most scummy. JeeJee should say his role now. I assume he's protown. I assume Iaaan is protown also through knowledge of the daytime nuke protection. Now there is Caller and LMNOP I can't judge. Abenson and I are masons. 2 confirms, and 2 EXTREMELY likely townies. Haster, Citizen vs. Caller - Let's see where it goes. And the nonposting d3. I'm not going to post my suspects. Please post your vote and further arguments. Convince me I'm wrong. I shouldn't need to explain my change of vote to someone who didn't vote. | ||
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
On April 09 2010 06:41 ~OpZ~ wrote: Where were you to further argue with me earlier? I would of preferred that. Honestly I have no idea which of you is mafia. Caller not being mafia pretty much hands the game over to town, right then and there. Almost everyone becomes confirmed. Sounds extremely nice. Now let's see if he's right. Citizen voters and would-be voters: Iaaan LMNOP Caller JeeJee I would like this to be noted. I would also like it to be noted all who didn't cast their votes. D3. Abenson, Haster, Myself, Citizen. Let's see where this goes after Caller dies. D3 cast your vote. Actually I did vote. On another note, read this bit: You may be wondering why I was acting all mysterious and suspicious throughout the entire fucking game. That's because I knew that if I claimed Japan and /or made myself not a lynch suspect, I would definitely get night hit and that means I wouldn't be able to figure out if I was insane or paranoid. So Caller didn't want to be a mafia target. Seems reasonable. Oh wait: On April 01 2010 11:18 Caller wrote: Well, gentlemen and woman, my idea of coming clean has been most rudely interrupted. I am Israel, an Alignment Cop. The reason that I have barely said anything all game thus far is because any country's leader that opened their mouth died in a nuclear fire along with their many innocent civilians, as all can very clearly see. I didn't think there was any need at all for me to endanger my people's republic before my intelligence agency managed to get even one check off, so I figured the best thing to do was to say nothing. If people suspected my people of being conniving Mafia, then all the better, as by hiding among outsiders have the Jewish people survived for this long. Take notes kids: the way to not make yourself a target is to fake-claim to be a cop! Comrade Caller is no fool, da? | ||
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
But citizen....As a fellow wanter of mafia death...And seeing as you are town as you claim, and LMNOP so graciously attacked you. How do you feel regarding him? | ||
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Elemenope
Burkina Faso1704 Posts
On April 09 2010 07:19 ~OpZ~ wrote: Please cast your vote for the suspect that seems most scummy. JeeJee should say his role now. I assume he's protown. I assume Iaaan is protown also through knowledge of the daytime nuke protection. Now there is Caller and LMNOP I can't judge. Abenson and I are masons. 2 confirms, and 2 EXTREMELY likely townies. Haster, Citizen vs. Caller - Let's see where it goes. And the nonposting d3. I'm not going to post my suspects. Please post your vote and further arguments. Convince me I'm wrong. I shouldn't need to explain my change of vote to someone who didn't vote. How can I convince you that you're wrong when you don't even list a suspect list? You claim that we should just lynch Caller and see where this goes when if we lynch Caller and he's town, we lose if there is 4 mafia alive. With the way you've been acting the previous day and this day, I'd almost say that you and Abenson are in fact mafia and are trying to play off Mason. The fact that you all are so hasty with your votes when we're in most likely a lylo situation is just suspicious. Do you not understand the implications of a mislynch? Stop trying to act so high and might because I'm not voting right away when we're in a lylo situation. You need to explain your change of vote. | ||
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
You were perfectly fine with Citizens death at 5:03. Had I not nuked, we would not be having this discussion. Don't act like my change to Caller even matters at this point. The fact that you were perfectly fine not voting, DESPITE THE DAY WOULD HAVE ENDED TWO AND A HALF HOURS AGO. Did you notice Citizen didn't change his vote? Oh, and if you would of voted, guess what? MY VOTE CHANGE WOULDN'T OF MATTERED. So, let me get this straight...you were perfectly fine in this lylo situation to be over with a citizen lynch earlier. but once I change my vote to Caller you need to think about it? Hi Mafia. | ||
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
On April 09 2010 07:37 ~OpZ~ wrote: ...LMNOP... You were perfectly fine with Citizens death at 5:03. Had I not nuked, we would not be having this discussion. Don't act like my change to Caller even matters at this point. The fact that you were perfectly fine not voting, DESPITE THE DAY WOULD HAVE ENDED TWO AND A HALF HOURS AGO. Did you notice Citizen didn't change his vote? Oh, and if you would of voted, guess what? MY VOTE CHANGE WOULDN'T OF MATTERED. So, let me get this straight...you were perfectly fine in this lylo situation to be over with a citizen lynch earlier. but once I change my vote to Caller you need to think about it? Hi Mafia. EBWOP: citizen didn't change his vote til 5:46. My bad. Before you use that against my argument. You were fine with citizens death earlier but now you need time to think about it? Well you are GOD DAMNED WELCOME FOR THE TIME THAT MY VOTE CHANGE/NUKE allowed us to have. A thank you would be appreciated. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
On April 09 2010 07:43 Ace wrote: Oops sorry if the old post wasn't clear, but day was ending on Friday not today regardless of nukes. But not Majority Decision for lynch, like LMNOP seems to of forgotten... | ||
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haster27
Taiwan809 Posts
On April 09 2010 06:36 Elemenope wrote: i'm not going to argue the other two points as that's more for shinbi to answer imo. It's mathematically impossible for there to be 5 mafia. Are you even paying attention at all? And secondly: I did express concerns that there may be no mafia at all in fact, and it may be two anti-town SKs actually, prior to Nemy launching his nuke towards Nikon I believe actually. I'd still like to hear Opz/Abenson's reasoning behind suddenly switching votes, especially at the last second, and secondly: the nuke on Iaaan. Remember I am new to TL Mafia. If you are going to dismiss it as mathematics, you are at least going to need to show your entire work to get marks. However, I acknowledge my mistake if you really suggested there were no Mafia- however, having team of three Mafia and two independent SK who may or may not know each other is completely different thing. In case this is two SK game, laaan has no reason to defend a position about number of mafia- thus JeeJee's point is still moot. On April 09 2010 06:41 ~OpZ~ wrote: Where were you to further argue with me earlier? I would of preferred that. Honestly I have no idea which of you is mafia. Caller not being mafia pretty much hands the game over to town, right then and there. Almost everyone becomes confirmed. Sounds extremely nice. Now let's see if he's right. Citizen voters and would-be voters: Iaaan LMNOP Caller JeeJee I would like this to be noted. I would also like it to be noted all who didn't cast their votes. D3. Abenson, Haster, Myself, Citizen. Let's see where this goes after Caller dies. D3 cast your vote. I was somewhat busy, and was trying to find an error that critically flawed Caller's position during the spare time I had because at the time it seemed like nothing but a punch in the face would cause you to change votes. On April 09 2010 07:29 Elemenope wrote: How can I convince you that you're wrong when you don't even list a suspect list? You claim that we should just lynch Caller and see where this goes when if we lynch Caller and he's town, we lose if there is 4 mafia alive. With the way you've been acting the previous day and this day, I'd almost say that you and Abenson are in fact mafia and are trying to play off Mason. The fact that you all are so hasty with your votes when we're in most likely a lylo situation is just suspicious. Do you not understand the implications of a mislynch? Stop trying to act so high and might because I'm not voting right away when we're in a lylo situation. You need to explain your change of vote. Halt. This is so hypocritical I don't know where to begin. 1) Town is in lylo position; thus it equally means that if citizen is lynched and he is town, we lose. 2) ~OpZ~ and Abenson cannot be Mafia. Believe me, yesterday I REALLY REALLY wanted to believe they are intelligent Mafia, but I knew it was not possible because of two facts: 1) false-claiming one's country so early in the game is suicidal because he could accidentally claim a country being represented by another player, and 2) their nuke switching ability which was proved by ~OpZ~ and Abenson false-nuking each other. Since nuke-stealer is Mafia, it is highly likely nuke switching ability would go to Townie. 3) Hello? ~OpZ~ already explained this, no need for me to say anything else. | ||
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Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
All I have to say is that because there whether there are 3 or 4 mafia, they only need to kill one townie to win (would be 4:4 tonight or 3:3 the next day), so today's lynch is the only thing that matters. | ||
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Iaaan
Canada578 Posts
I'll be back in a few hours to vote ^.^ | ||
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haster27
Taiwan809 Posts
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
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Elemenope
Burkina Faso1704 Posts
On April 09 2010 07:40 ~OpZ~ wrote: EBWOP: citizen didn't change his vote til 5:46. My bad. Before you use that against my argument. You were fine with citizens death earlier but now you need time to think about it? Well you are GOD DAMNED WELCOME FOR THE TIME THAT MY VOTE CHANGE/NUKE allowed us to have. A thank you would be appreciated. Because what I'm concerned is that a) you were pushing hard for Citizen to get lynched and how Caller is town and throw your vote on him, then suddenly b) you change it ~3 minutes before the nuke lands with no explanation whatsoever and suddenly we're supposed to take your word for it and vote Caller? I say before your vote switch to say something on why you said Really? Damn...So add JeeJee to my vote for Citizen list... You completely ignore that and then change your vote at the last moment, then try to play it off as nothing has happened? I was not fine with citizen dying in the lynch at all as I felt there's something missing, yet there's nothing I could do about it. You know why I didn't throw a vote? Because it's obvious that you would throw a nuke before the one Abenson launched landed. Even without that, what was I supposed to do? Launch a nuke myself? I don't have 5 votes to throw around on somebody else, so unless you wanted me to launch a nuke, there wasn't anything I could do. The way I see it is this: Assuming Caller is Town His early inactivity was suspicious. Claiming Israel DT in response to Fishball's tracker claim was itself suspicious given circumstances. And then coming with the citizen=scum claim. However, this is where I feel that it can make sense. First off: as citizen so delicately put it Use reasoning not faith. Caller gets a nuke launched at him. He asks for the town to save him, but he has to take care of it himself. He checks Nikon, but then bussed onto Meeple. This is the first point: we currently don't have any mafia lynched or killed, we only have Nikon who was anti-town SK killed. We have no way of confirming just yet of the abilities of mafia which also means we can't truly deny the fact that there may be a bus driver. Meeple turned up scum to the alignment check, while we all know that meeple was blue. Hence, something is wrong with this. A DT can have 4 different sanities: sane, naive, paranoid, and insane, all of which influence the DT's accuracy check since DTs are quite overpowered, especially when paired with a medic and especially when mafia only have one KP. A medic-DT combo is nigh unstoppable when mafia KP is one which it is in this case, so it's logical to assume that if there are DTs, they may have varying sanities. Versatile is hit, and Caller claims he checked d3 and result came up as scum as well to alignment check. We don't gain any new information in this case. Fishball is then hit, and Caller claims he checked Infund/citizen, and result came up as Innocent to alignment check. This is quite a clear giveaway as to the allignment of Infund/citizen as the only other possibility that would allow an innocent meeple who turned up scum to a check and an innocent infund who turned up innocent to a check is that Ace is a douche bag who just randomly gave scum/innocent to alignment checks to the DT. I think we can all agree that this is highly unlikely. On top of this, Caller claims Japan saying that he didn't want to seem like a likely night hit target. Let's look at the lynches so far: RoL, Xelin, and Nikon. In RoL's case, he was just a random vote in order to force a day one lynch, but then he launched a nuke. Xelin: launched an anonymous nuke, claim he didn't do it, then later claim he did in fact do so. Then he launches a nuke at Zona, and everybody votes for him. Nikon: launches a fake nuke at Iaaan, then tells me to launch a nuke at him, to which Nemy actually follows through which ends up getting reversed, and we lynch Nikon. Now, this whole time: Caller was suspicious as fuck from Day 1 because of the save from the first nuke and the fact that he was inactive. We had asked Japan to come forward, and we even had a huge debate which, may I remind you, ended up getting L killed as to whether Japan should step forward or not. This was a continuing theme throughout the days as people wondered "Why wouldn't Japan step forward to claim that he saved Caller if he was truly town?" Then we come to the last day: the reason nobody did is because Caller was Japan. Unless someone wants to come out and claim either Israel or Japan to refute Caller? Now let's look at the night kill targets: Meeple, Amber, Versatile, and Fishball. With the exception of Fishball up until his claim, all of these players attempted to generate discussion among the town in order to hopefully get scum to leak a tell, especially on the first day. None of these players were completely inactive. If Caller wanted to not seem like a good target for a night hit, then he did very well going off the kill list that has happened thus far. Now going off from this: I can only see a few things that can completely invalidate Caller's claim when given a closer look: 1) Somebody claiming Japan 2) Somebody claiming Israel 3) Somebody claiming Bus Driver If anybody else can think of any other thing to negate Caller's claim that's not the above 3, then say so; preferably something other than "he was just making it up, he was hiding the whole time and is just trying to save himself" as that can pretty much be argued for anybody at this current moment. On April 09 2010 07:58 haster27 wrote: Remember I am new to TL Mafia. If you are going to dismiss it as mathematics, you are at least going to need to show your entire work to get marks. However, I acknowledge my mistake if you really suggested there were no Mafia- however, having team of three Mafia and two independent SK who may or may not know each other is completely different thing. In case this is two SK game, laaan has no reason to defend a position about number of mafia- thus JeeJee's point is still moot. Here is why there cannot be 5 mafia: We have 9 people alive. Mafia win when a majority is reached. Thus if there's 5 mafia alive at the moment, then that would be 5 mafia and 4 town, meaning Mafia would win. Secondly: Halt. This is so hypocritical I don't know where to begin. 1) Town is in lylo position; thus it equally means that if citizen is lynched and he is town, we lose. Correct. 2) ~OpZ~ and Abenson cannot be Mafia. Believe me, yesterday I REALLY REALLY wanted to believe they are intelligent Mafia, but I knew it was not possible because of two facts: 1) false-claiming one's country so early in the game is suicidal because he could accidentally claim a country being represented by another player, and 2) their nuke switching ability which was proved by ~OpZ~ and Abenson false-nuking each other. Since nuke-stealer is Mafia, it is highly likely nuke switching ability would go to Townie. Hold on. First off: one - they do not need to false claim their country at all if they were mafia. Secondly, their nuke switching ability was not proven at all in fact because we haven't seen a nuke fired by either of those two that actually was real. It's not hard to claim you have a nuke switching ability and fire off fake nukes at each other if *all your nukes are fake regardless*. And since Abenson had took the liberty of shooting a nuke so early on [which was largely unnecessary as town only needs to reach a majority lynch. Assuming everybody was thinking, which apparently wasn't the case, then nobody would throw out a lynch vote if there were no nukes in the air], and now that Opz had shot a nuke at Iaaan, now they can't prove they have a real nuke now anymore since they both used their initation nuke and they can only nuke once a day. Unless you're claiming that you have actually stolen their real nukes, I don't see how you can create a definitive proof that their nuke switching ability is in fact verified. Overall First off, I don't get why you guys are so accusatory saying that I don't understand the situation of the lylo we're in. The fact that I haven't thrown out a vote gives a very indicative statement that I know exactly what situation we're in unlike the rest of you voters. So don't ever try to say that I was content with letting citizen die and caller live or letting Caller die and citizen live or whatever. What I'm looking to see is if there's definitive proof that can justify the lynch of one or the other. Until then, all I have is circumstances that on the surface, looks fishy as fuck, but once taken from an objective point of view, does make sense. I never explicitly claimed that Caller is town or that citizen is scum or vice-versa, but from what I've seen, it looks like that Caller is in fact town though now that we do have a nuke out in the air again, I'm very happy to hear arguments relating to this. More importantly: on why Opz changed his vote. | ||
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